UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

[Spooner]

Thursday 16 December 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Aris Thessaloniki v Rosenborg BK (18:00 GMT)	1.53	4.17	6	105.86 %
	Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Atlético Madrid (18:00 GMT)	3.11	3.4	2.25	106.01 %
	Juventus v Manchester City (18:00 GMT)	2.25	3.33	3.1	106.73 %
	Levski Sofia v Sporting CP (18:00 GMT)	2.91	3.3	2.37	106.77 %
	Lille OSC v KAA Gent (18:00 GMT)	1.53	3.93	6.71	105.57 %
	Red Bull Salzburg v Lech Poznan (18:00 GMT)	2.3	3.25	3	107.58 %
	AEK Athens v Zenit Saint-Petersburg (20:05 GMT)	2.38	3.25	2.9	107.27 %
	Anderlecht v Hajduk Split (20:05 GMT)	1.4	4.5	8	106.15 %
	Debreceni VSC v Sampdoria (20:05 GMT)	3.61	3.35	2	107.55 %
	Getafe v BSC Young Boys (20:05 GMT)	1.57	3.67	6.01	107.52 %
	PSV Eindhoven v Metalist Kharkiv (20:05 GMT)	1.66	3.52	5.12	107.94 %
	VfB Stuttgart v Odense BK (20:05 GMT)	1.45	4.34	7.5	105.34 %

[dak]

[FCP]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 15th December

Event	Lille - Gent
Selection	Lille AH-1.0 (Asian-handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	16/12/2010
Bookmaker/Price	10bet @ 1.56
Reasoning	In this last day of Europa League group phase, Lille is the third placed with five points and Gent is the second placed with seven points. This means that if Lille wins this game, they will be qualified to the next stage. Any other result will qualify the Belgium team of Gent. It will be like a final for the hosts. But Gent is making a poor away European season, despite their second place. Two defeats in two games and eight goals conceded. Lille at home has all the arguments to defeat them, and motivation will be high on the hosts. But why a team like Lille has to wait to the final game to get qualified? Lille is being concentrate on Ligue 1 and on the other European games, they never played with their main team. They were saving players to the "Championnat". And we can't criticize this measure: they are the leaders of French Ligue and they arrive to this last Europa League game depending on them, at home, against a accessible team. Today they will play with all their strength to get the passport and i won't be admired if they won by more than one goal.

[red_impact]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 15th December

Event	Bayer Leverkusen - Atletico Madrid
Selection	HT 0-1 (correct score HT)
Strength	10/10
Date	16/12/2010
Bookmaker/Price	bet365 @ 4.33
Reasoning	In this last day of Europa League group phase, Madrid is the third placed with seven points and Aris is the second placed with seven points. This means that if Aris wins their game, they will be qualified to the next stage. Any other result will qualify the Spanish team of Atletico Madrid. It will be a demoralised AM if Aris has a good lead because if both AM and Aris wins, Aris qualify because they beat AM twice. Atletico 1-0 in HT is a very likely outcome since the second half is when they may begin to realize they wont qualify. German teams seldom go out and throw away a game even if they don't need to win.

[red_impact]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 15th December

Event	Getafe - Young Boys
Selection	Young Boys AH+0.75 (Asian-handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	16/12/2010
Bookmaker/Price	bet365 @ 2.10
Reasoning	I don't see why Getafe are such huge favorites again. They where huge favorites at home to Stuttgart to and now Young Boys. With no chance to qualify Getafe don't have mutch to play for and Young Boys may be not so great away but I don't think they will lose to an unmotivated Getafe team they beat easily at home by two goals. At least a draw for YB or win because they are the better team. YB played their last game this sunday and now has a winterbreak until march so this is their last match in a long while so they might want to go out and show Getafe they are better.

[toptipper]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Salzburg-Posen i know the team oft head coach huub stevens very well and i see that the red bulls wont have any Motivation for the match today. If i am honest i think of a poor game of both teams there is nothing nothing to play for.Salzburg does have a few important missings and Posen will make changes.So nice under2.5 pick @1.7 admiralbe t

[ronny]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Anyone know if or when will corner handicaps be displayed by the bookmakers for tonights matches? With the Lille v Gent situation as it is,I'm keen to see a corner handicap as i feel lille will completely dominate the corners numbers.I find it similar to the Napoli v Steua Bucharest game last night whereby Napoli won the corner count 9-1.

[toptipper]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Debrecen-sampdoria Genua both teams are out of the group stage and both showed poor games.sampdoria did score 4goals and conceded 5.i strongly believe that sampdoria will win in debrecen 0:1 but i am betting [email protected] admiralbet there Is nothing to player for anyway and everybody who knows italian Teams knows that there will bei no interest in the game so a decent pick in my opinion

[Flotschi]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December In several austrian newspapers there is standing, that Salzburg will neither play with the A, nor the B team,they'll play with the C team...I dunno how trustworth those information are,but the coach says that they do not have anything to win anyway and will focus on next bundesliga match...wellwell,posen has awesome odds,but i do not trust them today either.There also might be more polish fans than austrians, because nobody goes to visit salzburg-matches recently.Salzburg also has huge problems with few/one ultra supporter-group/s...One did shit and got banned for the saison from the stadium, others followed, cuz they show support for the other ultra club.Hmm so what to think?Maybe 1/10 on Pozen?I really cannot decide

[TOTTI3]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Leverkusen-A.Madrid = both teams to score (1.61) bet365 Leverkusen position 1° points 11 A. Madrid position 3° points 7 Leverkusen has a score of w3-d2-l0 goals scored 7 goals conceded in a while. Madrid has a score of w2-l2 d1-8 goals conceded six goals scored. Leverkusen already mathematically qualified first in his group would not oppose a great resistance to fielding a team with some substitutes with no experience at international level. A different view on. Madrid keeper of the cup that should win the game and hoping for a debacle of ARIS. So the coach ranks all the best with Simao, Reyes, Forlan and Aguero with grafts in midfield and defense as Asuncao and Valera. In the end my choice is a goal. :hope:hope:hope

[TOTTI3]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Levski Sofia-Sporting Lisbon =both teams to score (1.80) bet365 Levski Sofia position 4° points 4 Sporting Lisbon position 1° points 12 Preview: Levski: injured: Minev (defender), Miliev (defender); falls Tasevski (midfielder). Levski had a score of w1-d1-l3 5 goals conceded 11 goals scored while Sporting Lisbon has a score of w4 d0-l1-5 goals scored 14 goals conceded. Levski already deleted defensive problems in the department while Sporting Lisbon already qualified as the first in his group will bring some changes with the addition of some players that will replace the holders. Given the goals scored and conceded by both teams goals is my tip. :hope:hope:hope

[toptipper]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

In several austrian newspapers there is standing' date=' that Salzburg will neither play with the A, nor the B team,they'll play with the C team...I dunno how trustworth those information are,but the coach says that they do not have anything to win anyway and will focus on next bundesliga match...wellwell,posen has awesome odds,but i do not trust them today either.There also might be more polish fans than austrians, because nobody goes to visit salzburg-matches recently.Salzburg also has huge problems with few/one ultra supporter-group/s...One did shit and got banned for the saison from the stadium, others followed, cuz they show support for the other ultra club.Hmm so what to think?Maybe 1/10 on Pozen?I really cannot decide[/quote'] It will be nearly the same line up that won Vs Sturm Graz at the weekend only dudic comes into the defence and maybe alan or wallner will Start up as the only striker

[blackcrow]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Aris Salonika -1.5 @ 2.95 pinnacle Aris are equal with Atletico Madrid but 2 goals worse off than them, so they will need a win here, and more than likely by a few goals to get that second spot, especially if AM also win their game. They did beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 at home and drew with Bayer Leverkusen 0-0, so defensively they are hard to score against. Also they beat Atletico 3-2 on the road but lost 1-0 at Bayer Leverkusen. They also lost 2-1 at Rosenborg, but Rosenborg are out of the running to progress from this group, and with their season having finished last month, their match fitness may be lacking here. Aris will look to ensure they not only win, but win well, and like them to beat Rosenborg here, who have lost 3-0 at Atletico Madrid and 4-0 at Bayer Leverkusen, in their 2 away games from these group games. Lille - Gent over 3.5 @ 2.48 pinnacle Lille are 3rd with 5 points in their group and need to beat Gent to jump over them and move into the next round. Gent, need just a point here, and this is where it get interesting. Lille have beaten Levski Sofia 1-0 at home but lost 2-1 to Sporting Lisbon at home. On the road, they lost 1-0 at Sporting Lisbon, drew 2-2 at Levski Sofia and drew 1-1 at Gent. So in these 5 games, they have managed to score in 4 of them, but also conceded in 4 of these games. Gent lost 3-2 at Levski Sofia and lost 5-1 at Sporting Lisbon in their 2 away games in this group. Also at home, they beat Levski Sofia 1-0, beat Sporting Lisbon 3-1 and drew 1-1 with Lille. So they have scored in each of their 5 games, while they also conceded in 4 of them. With both teams likely to score, it will mean that whoever has the edge at that time, will have to withstand the attack of the other side, where eventually they break and concede, or they get presented with an opportunity to score on the counter. Expect both sides to change their tactics during the course of the game, and believe that an open game, with goals, will ensue.

[red_impact]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

Aris Salonika -1.5 @ 2.95 pinnacle Aris are equal with Atletico Madrid but 2 goals worse off than them, so they will need a win here, and more than likely by a few goals to get that second spot, especially if AM also win their game.

They don't need to win by a few goals to get the second spot. Aris will get that second spot no matter how many the goals are. If two teams are on the same points the table is decided by h2h and Aris have beaten AM twice. Aris only needs to win to qualify.

[dak]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December The reasoning/approach is quite straight-forward here. I believe that matches with little or no meaning have an increased chance of ending in a draw. It is the ultimate "meaningless" result. We are in the middle of December, during a harsh winter across Europe, and I feel these type of circumstances produce subdued performances from teams which increases the chance of a draw. So, with this in mind I am tipping the follwing matches for draws: Juventus - Manchester City: Draw @ 3.35 (Pinnacle) 10/10 Levski - Sporting Lisbon: Draw @ 3.52 (Pinnacle) 10/10 Salzburg - Poznan: Draw @3.50 (Bet365) 10/10 Debreceni - Sampdoria: Draw @ 3.33 (Pinnacle) 10/10 One draw results in a small unit loss whereas two or more draws provides profit. Good Luck.....:hope

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

Lille - Gent over 3.5 @ 2.48 pinnacle Lille are 3rd with 5 points in their group and need to beat Gent to jump over them and move into the next round. Gent, need just a point here, and this is where it get interesting. Lille have beaten Levski Sofia 1-0 at home but lost 2-1 to Sporting Lisbon at home. On the road, they lost 1-0 at Sporting Lisbon, drew 2-2 at Levski Sofia and drew 1-1 at Gent. So in these 5 games, they have managed to score in 4 of them, but also conceded in 4 of these games. Gent lost 3-2 at Levski Sofia and lost 5-1 at Sporting Lisbon in their 2 away games in this group. Also at home, they beat Levski Sofia 1-0, beat Sporting Lisbon 3-1 and drew 1-1 with Lille. So they have scored in each of their 5 games, while they also conceded in 4 of them. With both teams likely to score, it will mean that whoever has the edge at that time, will have to withstand the attack of the other side, where eventually they break and concede, or they get presented with an opportunity to score on the counter. Expect both sides to change their tactics during the course of the game, and believe that an open game, with goals, will ensue.

hmmmmm, I've gone the other way to you.....simply because Gent only need a point, and Lille need the win. I think Gent are more likely to try to hang on to a result at all costs, rather than pushing forward in search of a winner. Like they might have done earlier in the competition. Although, an early goal will probably kill my thinking, but that is gambling for you.....

[konico65]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December A note about the match Debrecen-Sampdoria Sunday there will be the match Sampdoria - Genoa.. the derby (the match between the teams of the city of Genoa)! Is the match most important of the yar for the fans of these two teams. The 11 player of these evening of Sampdoria Da Costa (second goolkeeper. Played only 20 minutes in one year... ) - Perhaps will play Fiorillo (thirds...) Grieco-Rossini-Accardi-Messina Dessena-Obiang-Poli-Koman Sammarco-Kristic Other player in the list of 18: Poli, Guberti) The first team of Sampdoria is usually: Curci, Zauri, Lucchini, Gastaldello, Ziegler, Palombo, Semioli, Pazzini (Pozzi), Marilungo, Padalino, Pazzini (Cassano is out from about 1 month for problem with the club) Reserve of first team are: Dessena, Accardi, Grieco... Only 2 (!!) player of the first team are in the 18 player of this evening.... (others 9 are at home and will watch the match on TV...) See the link: http://www.paginadellosport.com/calcio/europa_league/europa-league-debrecen-sampdoria-la-probabile-formazione-blucerchiata-16404.html

[blackcrow]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

They don't need to win by a few goals to get the second spot. Aris will get that second spot no matter how many the goals are. If two teams are on the same points the table is decided by h2h and Aris have beaten AM twice. Aris only needs to win to qualify.

Thanks for that. Did not realise it is based on head to head. Still sticking with the bet. Rosenborg did lose quite heavily in their two away games

[JM382865]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Does anyone know why the line is so high for Lech Poznan? -Salz have nothing to play for, but have an important game on the weekend -Lech will want a win, because they could win the group and depending on the outcome and goal difference Juventus pose a threat -Lech don't play again until Jan 19th so they wont be resting players, -Lech beat them last game 2-0 Any info out there? This looks like great value for Lech +280

[blackcrow]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

hmmmmm, I've gone the other way to you.....simply because Gent only need a point, and Lille need the win. I think Gent are more likely to try to hang on to a result at all costs, rather than pushing forward in search of a winner. Like they might have done earlier in the competition. Although, an early goal will probably kill my thinking, but that is gambling for you.....

Initially thought the same, but the Sevilla - Dortmund game from last night came to my mind, on how this game might pan out. You are right about the early goal. If there is a goal in the first 20 minutes then it looks good for further goals. If not, then there may be just a goal or two in it. However both teams have showed a tendency to attack and not the best in defending games

[red_impact]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

Does anyone know why the line is so high for Lech Poznan? -Salz have nothing to play for, but have an important game on the weekend -Lech will want a win, because they could win the group and depending on the outcome and goal difference Juventus pose a threat -Lech don't play again until Jan 19th so they wont be resting players, -Lech beat them last game 2-0 Any info out there? This looks like great value for Lech +280

If you look a page back you see that someone has written that Salzburg will field a C team. Juventus is no threat for Lech second place since Lech scored 3 away goals vs Juve who scored none away to Lech so their h2h is better because of that. Why is everyone thinking of goal difference? The standings are decided by h2h. Lech can't win the group because Man city has the better h2h.

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

hmmmmm, I've gone the other way to you.....simply because Gent only need a point, and Lille need the win. I think Gent are more likely to try to hang on to a result at all costs, rather than pushing forward in search of a winner. Like they might have done earlier in the competition. Although, an early goal will probably kill my thinking, but that is gambling for you.....

I also believe in goals here, for more than one reason. --Lille are capable of producing a high-scoring one on their own; --Gent are risking too much if they sit back and defend vs a most potent and superior team; --not much into Belgium football, but watched Gent 3 or 4 times this season - I rate them as an attacking team, not a defending one, i.e. they look strong when they go forward. If I am managing that team I would rather use what my people are better at, and Lille showed few times ( true, in domestic league ) that they are easier to penetrate this season. Blackcrow as a rule takes no prisoners :D, his line is bit high to me, but Over 3 Goals will do me fine, bet365... GL

[Tyler]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Bayer Leverkusen vs Atletico Madrid - Both Teams to Score @ 1.57 Atletico Madrid are one of the dodgiest teams to back in Europe. One day, you'll get a team that is capable of beating most others with all of their attacking talent oozing their undoubted class firing up-front whilst one on another day you'll get a team looking like they belong in the 2nd Tier of Spanish football. I think that is why this bet is so appealing to me because I think there will be goals with whichever Atletico Madrid turn up today. They need a win so will be going for goals from the outset. Leverkusen aren't exactly playing for anything and will more than likely field an understrength side but we all know that their Atletico's defence is extremely dodgy and I think that will be gaps to exploit when they go in search of a goal. Aguero is on fire at the moment and scored a classy brace on the weekend. Him anytime @ 2.25 might also be a good shout too. Aris vs. Rosenborg - Home Win @ 1.60 Aris need to win here and Rosenborg are last in the group with nothing to play for. As mentioned earlier, their league finished ages ago so they are lacking any kind of match fitness and sharpness and will have to go away to a hostile Greece atmosphere here to effectively play for nothing. The motivation is clearly there for Aris and NOT for Rosenborg. Definitely feel a home win is more than capable here and with decent odds too. The double pays 2.51 on Bet365. Will play with 3units.

[TheCerebralAssassin]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Is it possible for Juve to go through? If it's judged on head to head then i take it Juve are already out on the away goals rule?

[Stormwell]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Anyone know the type of team that Bayern Leverkusen are likely to put out? No matter what they will top their group, so the sensible option would be to field some youngsters, especially since they are doing well in their domestic league at the mo, would make sense to rest some players. Could have a massive bearing on the game, and if they are not fielding a full strength team I would say they are value on Betfair just now (2.24).

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

Is it possible for Juve to go through? If it's judged on head to head then i take it Juve are already out on the away goals rule?

Juve are out regardless...

[ewana]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

Is it possible for Juve to go through? If it's judged on head to head then i take it Juve are already out on the away goals rule?

Juve are out. Lech have a better head to head due to the 3-3 draw in Turin.

[airplay]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Bayer Leverkusen vs. Atletico Madrid According to the Bayer website, Heynckes says there are no unimportant games and he wants to win, BUT he intends to rest some (?) of his regulars and will give players who haven't played that much some gametime. He might also be using Kiessling after a three month break due to injury. The weather may be wicked too, snowfall and temperatures below freezing point are expected. All in all, not that encouraging and the price has moved quite a bit against Bayer, so maybe best to wait for the official lineup or game itself (although the Atletico price might drop further). Just thinking out loud, but I could imagine Heynckes through his time in Spain, carrying some sympathies for Atletico and not making it too hard for them. Also, Atletico is strong enough to kick out some competitors. But he's friends with the Aris' coach too (who's a former Valencia coach). Does he carry more sympathies for his former rival Atletico or Valencia? Probably best to dismiss this idea all together and wait for the lineup/game.

[Hobbit]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December

If you look a page back you see that someone has written that Salzburg will field a C team. Juventus is no threat for Lech second place since Lech scored 3 away goals vs Juve who scored none away to Lech so their h2h is better because of that. Why is everyone thinking of goal difference? The standings are decided by h2h. Lech can't win the group because Man city has the better h2h.

Sure Lech can win the group. H2H City and Lech has the same as both won 3-1 at home. But it still has nothing to do with winning group. If Lech wins today and City looses then Lech is 1 point above City, simply as that.

[ewana]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 16th December Anyone know why the odds on Aris to beat Rosenborg have gone from 2/5 up to 4/7 overnight? I find the odds of 4/7 rather generous as this is a potential must win game for Aris to progress. Rosenborg are out and their season finished weeks ago so I dont see where their motivation will come from for a meaningless game for them. Aris have struggled to score goals in the Greek league so far but they dont ship many either. To be honest I would have expected the odds on Aris to be around 1/4 unless am missing something.