Robinnho

Bencic really struggled against Kuznetsova. imo no way she beats Mertens.
Juvan also struggled vs. Sheriff. No way she lays a glove on Brady. 
Would probably say Putinseva has a chance, and is playing well - if you're after an underdog. I wish there was an under/over market for the number of times her racket is smashed on the floor.

Not really happy with anything from today's card. The only bet that I'm happy with, even despite the short odds, is Alex de Minaur to beat Fabio Fognini at 1.20 with Pinnacle. Fognini has been awful so far in this season and we now all realize how fluke his win over PCB was. The Aussie has the right style for frustrating him and has been fair bit better for quite some time now.

Only one for tonight.
Simona Halep (-3,5 Games) to beat Kudermetova at 1.83 with bet365
I will go against the majority in this one. Halep was on the border of the abysm in her first match against Tomjlanovic. The aussie was leading 5-2 the final set and she was playing really well. The people who watched the match will know how Halep won those 5 straight games and it wasn't because Tomjlanovic choked (she played her best match ever, from the beginning until the end). She did because she showed her best version on those 5 games. As I said, overall Halep did not play well and her % of points won with 2nd serves was awful: 29% (12-41) but IMO that victory can only make her improving for the next rounds. Kudermetova has been playing really well, especially in Abu Dhabi, but there are a couple of things that makes me go against her. The first one is that she was one of the players that was under a strict quarantine while Halep was in Adelaide. Looks like her game hasn't been as convincing after that. In the Grampians Trophy she lost against Ann Li in 2 sets, after winning against Watson, also in 2 sets. She dropped a set against Gracheva in her last match here after winning against Kostyuk, again, in a tight match. She has played against 2 young players so IMO playing Halep will be a big jump for her. Not only because Halep is so much better player than Gracheva and Kostyuk but also because she has a complete different style of playing... while Halep has faced a similar player in her last match. It's hard to know what version we will see from them but IMO Halep can only improve after that thrilling victory.

1-1 for the first day, shocking from Nishioka. I'll have a total of three for now.
Matteo Berrettini (-1.5 sets) to beat Kevin Anderson at 1.95 with Unibet
I've already said enough about Berrettini in the last couple of days and I'm happy to take another risk here. Anderson hasn't convinced me for quite some time now.
Petra Martic (-3.5) to beat Olga Danilovic at 1.81 with Pinnacle
Minnen managed to cover this handicap against Danilovic last time out and Martic is way better. She lost a close match against Rogers, but that's fine, especially since I reckon it's the Grand Slam she's more after these days. For me, Danilovic is still on the lower WTA level and she's had plenty of bad performances in recent times, even against players well below Martic's level. She did qualify and that was a big success, but she's unproven on the big stage.
Guido Pella (+2.5 sets) to beat Borna Coric at 1.95 with Unibet
Coric deserves to be the favourite here, there can be no doubts about that. However, I saw Pella twice in the ATP Cup and I was happy with his performances. I don't really expect him to win this, but I do expect him to grab a set at least. Coric can blow hot and cold and it's rare to see three straight good sets from him.

Sorana Cirstea (+4.5 Games) to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.00 with William Hill
I repeat with Cirstea. Cirstea has won against Tig (6-1, 6-2) while Kvitova has won against Minnen (6-3, 6-4). Kvitova hasn't showed her best tennis here. She had a hard battle against Venus (7-6, 7-5) and lost against Podoroska (7-5, 1-6, 6-7) in her preparation matches here. As I said before, Cirstea came here in a good form. She won an ITF tournament in Dubai, beating Blinkova, Cocciaretto, Krejcikova, Hercog and Siniakova. In her preparation matches she beat Bencic and lost against Ann Li, both in straight sets. Kvitova looks quite vulnerable and Cirstea is in a good form and she usually shows her best tennis when she faces big players. 
Bernarda Pera to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.61 with bet365
This is entirely based on how Pera has played against Kerber (6-0, 6-4). Probably she has played the best match of her career... She cleaned every single line of the court, hitting really hard the ball and giving no opportunities to Kerber. In the 2nd set Pera started to play a little bit conservative and that's when Kerber started to win games but finally Pera returned to her initial version and closed the match without problems. IMO, if Pera shows a similar version than today she should win the match, easily. The last time they played was in the US Open 2020 and Pera won 7-6, 6-0.

Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 2.87 with bet365
Barty will face Kovinic in the 1st round, Sorribes/Gavrilova in the 2nd round, S.Zheng/Krejcikova/Trevisan/Alexandrova in the 3rd round, Kontaveit/Sasnovich/Kr.Pliskova/Watson/F.Jones/Rogers/Danilovic/Martic in the 4th round and Bencic/Davis/Kuznetsova/Strycova/Zhu/Osuigwe/Leylah/Mertens/Muchova/Ostapenko/Barthel/Cocciaretto/Collins/Bogdan/Paolini/Ka.Pliskova in the QFs. IMO I don't see too many players there who can beat her and she has a big advantage: she can win most of the players  without even playing good... Alexandrova in the 3rd round could trouble her a little bit but I can't imagine her winning the match. Then Kontaveit, Rogers and Martic in the 4th round. I watched her against Rogers and despite dropping a set against her the sensation of superiority was clear. Martic is far from her best form and Kontaveit hasn't showed her best tennis recently either so I don't see them as big threats for Barty. In the QFs the player I fear the most is Mertens. I don't expect too much from Karolina Pliskova, and Bencic's form is really poor as well. Collins is a player to be considered but, as I said, I think Barty has been lucky with the draw and I expect her to win this quarter.
Danielle Collins (vs Bogdan) + Iga Swiatek (vs Rus) at 1.61 with 888
Bogdan ended 2020 with a negative record (7-8). She has played a couple of matches here, winning against Rakhimova and losing against Barty, both in straight sets. As I said before, Collins has played her best tennis ever here in Australia and she has done well recently, winning against Bonaventure, Stojanovic and Karolina Pliskova. She finally lost against Serena but she took a set from her (2-6, 6-4, 6-10). 
Rus' record in Australia is pretty bad and she hasn't done well recently.
She lost her last match played here against Venus (6-1, 6-3) and she also lost in the 1s round in Abu Dhabi against Xiyu Wang. Swiatek has played a couple of matches here. She won against her best friend Kaja Juvan in the 1st round but then lost in 2 sets against Alexandrova. The current RG champion did well here the last year. She won against Babos, Carla Suárez Navarro and Vekic, all of them in straight sets, and finally lost against Kontaveit in a tight match.
Victoria Azarenka (vs Pegula) + Nadia Podoroska (vs McHale) at 1.82 with 888
Azarenka has withdrawn from her QFs match against Kontaveit. She said she had a lower back problem but it's pretty obvious she had nothing and she did to be fit for the AO. Osaka also has withdrawn from her match against Mertens... They just don't want to risk the AO. Pegula's record on hard courts is impressive, but the 99% of her victories are on american soil. The only time she has played the AO 
was in 2020 and she lost in 2 sets against Towsend while Azarenka has won the whole tournament 2 times... Pegula has won here against Mladenovic and Barthel, and she has lost against Kenin in a 3 set match. In Abu Dhabi she lost in the 1st round against Svitolina, in straight sets. Azarenka has won her only match here against Putintseva. Despite being Pegula a good hard court player it would shock me a lot to see Azarenka losing this match considering how good she has been playing, especially in the USO. McHale was one of the players who was under a strict quarantine. She has  lost in her only match played here against Kontaveit (1-6, 3-6) and that's the only one she has played since RG. As I said before, Podoroska is in her best moment right now. She has won here against Jones, Minnen and Kvitova. She finally lost against Vondrousova despite taking the 1st set.
Sorana Cirstea to beat Patricia Maria Tig at 1.52 with 888
Cirstea is in a good form. She comes from winning an ITF tournament in Dubai, where she beat Blinkova, Cocciaretto, Krejcikova, Hercog and Siniakova. She has won against Kalashnikova and Bencic, both in 2 sets, and she's still to play against Ann Li in so she's currently in a 7 winning streak. Tig has lost the only match she has played here against Babos (6-7, 3-6). Cirstea is in a good form and feels so much better than Tig on hard courts so I expect her to win this match.
Barbora Krejcikova to beat Saisai Zheng at 1.53 with 888
I haven't seen Saisai for a while... looks like she has been a little bit inactive due to the pandemic. She has played 1 match here, against Begu (6-3, 5-7, 4-6) and then she has no matches played since February 2020. In the other side, Krejcikova looks great. As I said before, the former world number 1 on doubles had a great 2020 on singles, and looks like that good form is still going on in 2021 cause she has won here against Davis and Rybakina and she’s still to play against Brady.
Anastasija Pavlyuchenkova to beat Naomi Osaka at 5.00 with bet365
Osaka has been really unlucky. As I said before, Pavlyuchenkova always has played really well here. The last year here she lost against Gauff in the 3rd round while Pavlyuchenkova reached the QFs, where she lost against Muguruza in a tight match. Before that she beat Kerber and Karolina Pliskova. Osaka is the big favorite but it deserves a try at these odds.
I know some tournaments still on but i'm out for the weekend. GL.

Alright, it's the first Grand Slam of the season and it should be a good one!
Ashley Barty to win the 1st quarter at 3.00 with Bet365
Following @darko08 on this one, especially since it's now drifted out to 3.00. Same reasoning.
Naomi Osaka to win the 3rd quarter at 3.10 with Bet365
The second and fourth quarter look messy to me, but I'll stick with the favorites in the first and third one. Osaka has looked good so far in this season and has the right mentality as well. The rest of the field looks undercooked, so there's not as much danger as she would've faced in other quarters.
Matteo Berrettini to go further than Stan Wawrinka at 2.50 with Bet365
Although Berrettini did lose against Medvedev, he's had some seriously good efforts recently and his draw doesn't look impossible. Stan, on the other hand, hasn't played much and he hasn't played at all against top opposition. One has to wonder a bit about his fitness levels as well, so I'm more than happy to take the top 10 player over the aging former top 10 player here.
Viktoria Azarenka to go further than Bianca Andreescu at 2.00 with Bet365
Bianca hasn't played a match for more than a year, yet she's favored to go pretty far here. I get that she's strong and talented, but come on. There's a reason why everyone was itching to play the preparatory tournaments, you do need match practice in the world of tennis unless you are Federer. She has a tricky draw as well and I wouldn't be that shocked to see her fall in the early rounds. Buzarnescu can be tricky to navigate and then she'll have Hsieh or Pironkova, both quite tricky in different respects.
Alex Bolt to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.91 with William Hill
Bolt had a good run in the preparatory tournaments and he's always played well above his usual level in home conditions. He gives it his all in Melbourne year in year out. Gombos has only played one match this year, losing tamely against Purcell, so what exactly makes him the fav here is beyond me. He is the superior player overall, but the situational factors speak against him a lot.
Yoshihito Nishioka (-1.5 sets) to beat Pedro Martinez at 1.96 with Unibet
Nishioka did have a tough time in the ATP Cup, but he was playing decently by my standard's. He could've easily grabbed a set of Pella and Martinez will be a solid step down in terms of quality. Nishioka has all the right weapons to just outplay Martinez and I think that he'll be ready for this challenge. He looked really ambitious against Pella, wanted to win but things didn't go his way. Martinez should be an easier task.
Good luck to everyone guys!

Brandon Nakashima to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.61 with Unibet
The odds are pretty short, but I saw Marterer yesterday against Fabbiano and there wasn't anything I liked. He served average for such a big man and he wasn't finishing points when he should be, low on confidence. Nakashima has certainly looked better than him in recent times and is the better player overall as well, so I think there's slight value even in this price.

Just a heads up - some of the matches might get moved indoors if it rains. Some bookies void that, etc. It's probably best to wait for live betting today if you can stay up long enough. 

Elena Rybakina to beat Barbora Krejcikova at 1.50 with William Hill
Krejcikova has won today against Lauren Davis (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) in a match where the czech player was priced at 1.28 due to how bad Davis was in 2020 (7-13). She played in Abu Dhabi, where she won against Loeb but then lost against Putintseva, both in 2 sets. I never expected such results from her in Singles but I have to say that where she has achieved better results is on clay, where she reached the 4th round of RG in 2020. She did well also in the AO, beating Bondar, Lepchenko and Vickery in the qualy and Kanepi (7-6, 2-6, 6-3) in the 1st round, but then she was destroyed by Alexandrova (1-6, 3-6). Rybakina still has not played any singles match here but she played in Abu Dhabi where she won against Stefanini, Xiyu Wang and Kasatkina, all of them in straight sets, and then lost against Sabalenka in a 3 set match. She was impressive in 2020 (29-10), playing 5 WTA Finals (Shenzhen, Hobart, Saint Petersburg, Dubai and Strasbourg). Yesterday she played a doubles match along Shvedova, losing it by 6-4, 6-2 (vs Jurak/Stojanovic). Krejcikova is doing well but Rybakina is just too good for her. 

Last one for me.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+1.5 Sets) to beat Garbiñe Muguruza at 1.90 with Pinnacle
I was waiting to see the odds for this match and I think Pavlyuchenkova is a little bit underrated. Muguruza has destroyed Van Uytvanck (6-2, 6-0) while Pavlyuchenkova has destroyed Doi (6-1, 6-4) and Sevastova (6-0, 6-3). None of them has been really tested yet. As I said before, Muguruza reached the Final in the AO the last year, beating Pavlyuchenkova on the way in the QFs (7-5, 6-3). It was a close match, Pavluchenkova played well but her second serves were well attacked by Muguruza (3-21...). I don't expect this to happen again. I think this will be a long match and I think the russian player can win the match or take a set, at least... I know I have said several times how good Muguruza looks but I think the same from Pavluchenkova and Australia is where she feels better (she has reached the QFs of the AO 3 times in the last 4 years, not bad at all...).
@vvararu yep, tell the name of the players that she beat on that winning streak ?

Aryna Sabalenka to win the 2nd quarter at 2.10 with bet365
Taking a look at this market this is the one i like the most for this tournament.
In the 1st quarter Halep is priced at 1.66 but she will have to face Swiatek or Alexandrova and she can lose against them, especially against the pole, who already beat her in the Final of RG by a 6-1, 6-2, so IMO there is no value on her at all at 1.66.
The 3rd quarter is the most unpredicatble because we have Svitolina (2.30) and Mertens (2.62), or even Ostapenko (6.50) and Garcia (8.00), who IMO can beat the first 2 players if they have a good day.
In the 4th quarter we have Naomi Osaka as the most favorite player (1.90) but I see some players there that can beat her, as Gauff (4.00), the player who pulled her off the AO in 2020 in 2 sets, or Konta (6.00).
In the 2nd quarter we have 2 big favorite players, Sabalenka (2.10) and Muchova (2.30), and then we have Kasatkina (8.50). Sabalenka is currently in a 15 winning streak. That winning streak started in Ostrava (Gauff, Sorribes, Brady and Azarenka). Then was Linz (Paolini, Voegle, Dodin, Krejcikova and Mertens) and finally Abu Dhabi (Hercog, Tomjlanovic, Jabeur, Rybakina, Sakkari and Kudermetova), where only Rybakina was capable of taking a set from her. Tomorrow she will play against Kanepi, the giant killer. Kanepi ended the last year winning a lot of matches but that was because she played ITF tournaments. If we take a look at how she did in big tournaments we'll see first round loses in Brisbane (vs Bouzkova), AO (vs Krejcikova) and two second round loses in the US Open (vs Jabeur) and RG (vs Mertens). She has struggled against Sharma in her first round here so I expect Sabalenka to beat her. In her second match she will face Kasatkina or Hercog. To be honest, I'm more afraid of Kanepi than these 2 players. Hercog was one of the players she beat in Abu Dhabi (7-6, 6-2) and Kasatkina lacks the power and the serve that is needed to beat the current version of Sabalenka. The final player she will face is Paolini or Muchova, most likely Muchova. I don't think Muchova is in a good form right now... She did nothing remarkable in 2020 and even she was very poor in Australia, losing in Brisbane in the first round against Riske (2-6, 4-6) and in the second round in the AO, against Bellis (4-6, 4-6). She has destroyed McNally (6-1, 6-1) in her first round here. Let's see if that winning streak can last at least for 3 more matches... 
@K8a It's very important to do well in these preparation tournaments to have a good run in the big one. 

Sure! I am also more on betting football & basketball and occasionally tennis, (ice) hockey, handball, American football....... so I know what you mean.  The biggest difference between football/basketball and tennis betting is a team sport and an individual - here talking about "single" only - sport.  A team sport betting involve more factors on the outcome of the match, more players, coach decisions in tactics on all players as a team, substitutions, etc, etc. and in football the "red card" thing with less player/s on the field causing unequal competition and the "penalty" thing decision by refrees especially in additional (used to called "injury") minutes.
So at the end of the day, there is no easy pick due to the "well managed" handicap system.  In tennis, a 2-1 (best of 3 sets) or a 2-0 is a win.  In football/basketball a 1 goal/point, 2 goals/points............... is a win.  So when you think you see a strong team/player vs a "weak" team/player, there is still this handicap to clear.  You can't be betting on 1.10 to 1.20 win because in the long run, you will loose!  This is because of the conspiracy "theory" which is easy to "fix" 1 point, 2 point.......... as long as it is a win and in football a draw for a "strong" team which does not need to win.  So it is down to your luck NOT to be involved in these "conspired" matches unless you are a big time punter with insider info. These "conspiracy" things are facts as there are players/refrees caught and fined, jailed and/or banned.............. and shot (to deaf).  This thing even happened in the FIFA World Cup venue selection committee!
These are just my perspective.
 

Garbiñe Muguruza (-4,5 Games) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.83 with bet365
Last one. Muguruza's 2020 was impressive. She ended with a 23-7 record, including a Final in the AO, beating Svitolina, Bertens Pavlyuchenkova and Halep, all of them in straight sets. She started well this year, destroying Mladenovic (6-2, 6-4) and Sasnovich (6-1, 6-4), and lost in the third round against one of the most in form players righ now, Sakkari (5-7, 4-6). IMO the return of Conchita and her new mentality makes her a clear candidate to win everything here. Van Uytvanck is not at her best. She ended 2020 with a negative record (9-12). She has never achieved good results in Australia. In 2020, she was destroyed by Ferro (2-6, 1-6) in the AO, in the 1st round. She never has won a match in the AO or even a set (7 consecutive defeats by 2-0) and she has some big loses as a double 6-0 (vs Azarenka). As I said, looks like she never liked Australia conditions... I think this is one of those matches where the spaniard destroys her opponent, letting her with only 1-5 games won.

Vasek Pospisil (-2,5 Games) to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.72 with bet365
At first I have to say that Pospisil is one of the players that has been under a strict quarantine and this is one of the reasons why he's priced at these odds against Monteiro. IMO, even under these circunstances, Pospisil should win this one without problems. Pospisil had an impressive 2020. He reached the Final in Montpellier, beating Bedene, Shapovalov, Gasquet and Goffin. In the US Open he won against Raonic and Bautista and he reached the Final in his last tournament (Sofia), beating Marchenko, Struff, Millman and Gasquet, and losing the Final against Sinner (4-6, 6-3, 6-7). Monteiro has played 2 matches on this surface this year. He won against another clay court player, Bellucci, and lost against Isner, in Delray Beach. In 2020 he played 14 matches on hard with a 7-7 record but all those victories were against clay court players (Mayer, Coria and Clezar), low ranked players (Kozlov and Rai Ajeet) and a 15 years player (Nawaf). His only remarkable victory was against Norrie. I just can't imagine Pospisil losing this one, despite his lockdown.

Sure! I am also more on betting football & basketball and occasionally tennis, (ice) hockey, handball, American football....... so I know what you mean.  The biggest difference between football/basketball and tennis betting is a team sport and an individual - here talking about "single" only - sport.  A team sport betting involve more factors on the outcome of the match, more players, coach decisions in tactics on all players as a team, substitutions, etc, etc. and in football the "red card" thing with less player/s on the field causing unequal competition and the "penalty" thing decision by refrees especially in additional (used to called "injury") minutes.
So at the end of the day, there is no easy pick due to the "well managed" handicap system.  In tennis, a 2-1 (best of 3 sets) or a 2-0 is a win.  In football/basketball a 1 goal/point, 2 goals/points............... is a win.  So when you think you see a strong team/player vs a "weak" team/player, there is still this handicap to clear.  You can't be betting on 1.10 to 1.20 win because in the long run, you will loose!  This is because of the conspiracy "theory" which is easy to "fix" 1 point, 2 point.......... as long as it is a win and in football a draw for a "strong" team which does not need to win.  So it is down to your luck NOT to be involved in these "conspired" matches unless you are a big time punter with insider info. These "conspiracy" things are facts as there are players/refrees caught and fined, jailed and/or banned.............. and shot (to deaf).  This thing even happened in the FIFA World Cup venue selection committee!
These are just my perspective.
 

....and you can now oppose that for an easy profit. Edit: Just for the record, I don't think that there's any value whatsoever in backing Li Tu at around 1.50. I'd rather be on Sousa at the current odds.

Li Tu to beat Pedro Sousa at 2.10 with Bet365
Bet365 have opened at 2.10 for Li Tu and I can't have that at all. He should be the slight favorite in this match imo. He's already played a good Australian event where he beat Polmans in the finals and you'd have to rate Polmans somewhat above Sousa on hard courts. Sousa can be great on clay, but he's yet to play a match this year and he had a poor showing in Australia last year, so I expect some issues for him. We're taking a player that's had plenty of match practice against decent opposition against a clay-court guy that will play his first match of the season. 2.10? I'll have some.

I agree with this pick for the tennis played by Kostyuk and not so much about the "seconded" thing.  Kuder may be more experience and mature than the young Kostyuk who is not so consistent and blows hot and cold.  The most important is her desire to win and targeted to reach the top-50 this season.  Tennis wise, the underdog's odds does not suggest her chance of winning but in my opinion closer to 50-50.   

Kudermetova to beat Kostyuk at 1.73 with William Hill
I like how is paid Kudermetova, I was expecting something different... I have nothing much to say, she is better player and she has faced better players (Kontaveit, Badosa and Svitolina). Today she has won against Svitolina after losing the first set and I liked so much what I have seen from her. I haven't liked what I have seen about Kostyuk. She has played a lot of points with too much precipitation, looking for fast winners. She has played a horrible first set (6-0) and could have lost the whole match against Sorribes.
EDIT. When I started writing this she was paid at 1.73 in William Hill, but has dropped to 1.57...
1.61 with bet365 still has value imo

I can also see mager taking a set off christian harrison(IMO the italian is the better player anyway). Mager was solid and resilient against querrey so I don't think he'll go down easily here. And another one that I've bet on is isner - korda over 21,5 games (which was the lowest line available on Unibet). Korda was able to back up his serve against a good returner in tommy paul so normaly he should be able to hold it against isner no problem , while isner will just be himself and servebot like usual. The only problem with this one is that Korda seemed to have a knee problem against paul so that's maybe something to keep in mind..

Rybakina (+4.00 Games) to beat Sabalenka with Marathonbet
Sabalenka is in a 12 winning streak or something like that...but I expect a hard match for her and I wouldn't be surprised to see her losing despite the odds. Both players have won their matches without dropping a single set. Sabalenka has more power but I see Rybakina more consistent and her serve is more reliable, this will be a nice match to watch... 
The +3.5 Games is paid at 1.90 at most bookies

Reading about your suffering while watching tennis workwomen with a huge number of UE, we must agree that female tennis needs at least 10 new Iga Swiatek, she should be cloned immediately ?

of course a WTA  match had to ruin my bet( luckily I cashed out for a bit more money that I bet). Kudos to sakkari though she is in great form. I've placed a bet on svitolina taking a set (done ) and tiafoe winning against fratangelo. Now I don't have 10/10 confidence that tiafoe will win , but I certainly feel he is the superior player that has played at a far higher level than fratangelo for a while now. Fratangelo won a couple of matches against francis but they were a long time ago and I think things have changed since then.