janekda

Mannarino - Berdych 5.2
I cannot believe to Berdych. He has played great tennis in Miami but I think French tennis style will disgust him. Mannarino is better and better in matches with Berdych. And I think Berdych is in the age where is hard to stabilize form. One dfay grat tennis, another ugly.

Ozaki - Kerber 6.5
I think odds on Kerber's opponent over 5 are good. Maybe Angie goes for final/title but she doesn't look very comfortably and she feels pressure as No1. And Ozaki is great in Miami (5:0). I'm wonder how Kerber will play against runner as Ozaki. 

Ozaki - Kerber 6.5
I think odds on Kerber's opponent over 5 are good. Maybe Angie goes for final/title but she doesn't look very comfortably and she feels pressure as No1. And Ozaki is great in Miami (5:0). I'm wonder how Kerber will play against runner as Ozaki. 

Ozaki - Kerber 6.5
I think odds on Kerber's opponent over 5 are good. Maybe Angie goes for final/title but she doesn't look very comfortably and she feels pressure as No1. And Ozaki is great in Miami (5:0). I'm wonder how Kerber will play against runner as Ozaki. 

Mattek-Sands - Lucic 2.50
I believe in life's form of Bet. Lucic had great result with Radwanska but Radwanska is shadow of herself. And even she had an virus through week. I bet against Lucic even 1st round but Bondarenko lost 2 serves from 5:2 in decisive set.
It's hard to analyze bet when she is especially double player. But when she is is on her zone and it looks she is, she can with many players.
Yes, Lucic this year is great but I see worse form than in Australia and Miami is not her cup of tea.

Mattek-Sands - Lucic 2.50
I believe in life's form of Bet. Lucic had great result with Radwanska but Radwanska is shadow of herself. And even she had an virus through week. I bet against Lucic even 1st round but Bondarenko lost 2 serves from 5:2 in decisive set.
It's hard to analyze bet when she is especially double player. But when she is is on her zone and it looks she is, she can with many players.
Yes, Lucic this year is great but I see worse form than in Australia and Miami is not her cup of tea.

Mattek-Sands - Lucic 2.50
I believe in life's form of Bet. Lucic had great result with Radwanska but Radwanska is shadow of herself. And even she had an virus through week. I bet against Lucic even 1st round but Bondarenko lost 2 serves from 5:2 in decisive set.
It's hard to analyze bet when she is especially double player. But when she is is on her zone and it looks she is, she can with many players.
Yes, Lucic this year is great but I see worse form than in Australia and Miami is not her cup of tea.

Today in Miami there are sooo many matches with good tricky match-ups. But I start with favorite. 
Fognini-Chardy 1.75
I really don't understand this odd. I like underdog but there are so many factors for Fognini.
* Fognini is simply better player also last 12months
* Fognini is higher ranking
* 5:0 for Fognini
* I understand Chardy defeated Cilic but Cilic isn't in-form. More valuable was Fabio's victory over R.Harrison in great form
* Fognini is a little bit strange player and that's why I love him. He has something in mind he is able to overplay anybody. It only dependes on him. And if he has beaten Chardy 5x it means he is somehow motivated against him. Maybe a girl in history?
 
Donaldson-Raonic 6.50
It is short to describe. I understand Raonic is high favourite but so high?
* Raonic is huge favourite but he is a little bit glassy player with many injuries
* Donaldson is on his high performance this year and Miami suits his play

Vesely-Sock 3.85
* Vesely has play for top20 but his head is not so good. He was better player than Thiem during junior career.
* Sock has one of the most horrible bh in top100.
* even Vesely is tower he prefers slower courts(clay) and Miami is like clay court
* Sock has good score in Miami but no valuable win and he has played especially with players behind top50 there
* Vesely won 2 3sets close matches. It can help his mind.
Be prepared to backup stakes on Vesely when he can just win service games.
Kukuskhin-Bautista 3.7
* Kukuskhin is much better player than odds show and now he is in good form 8:2 last 10 games
* Bautista has worse period than in the end of the last season
* in IW he withdrew with muscle injury
* in Miami RBA plays a little bit behind his average play

Coric-Thiem 4.3
I think Thiems game is on hard court overrated and his form isn't so good as results show. On the other hand Coric is in bad form but he has qualities to overplay no confident player who playes on baseline

I agree with stake on Rublev.

Today in Miami there are sooo many matches with good tricky match-ups. But I start with favorite. 
Fognini-Chardy 1.75
I really don't understand this odd. I like underdog but there are so many factors for Fognini.
* Fognini is simply better player also last 12months
* Fognini is higher ranking
* 5:0 for Fognini
* I understand Chardy defeated Cilic but Cilic isn't in-form. More valuable was Fabio's victory over R.Harrison in great form
* Fognini is a little bit strange player and that's why I love him. He has something in mind he is able to overplay anybody. It only dependes on him. And if he has beaten Chardy 5x it means he is somehow motivated against him. Maybe a girl in history?
 
Donaldson-Raonic 6.50
It is short to describe. I understand Raonic is high favourite but so high?
* Raonic is huge favourite but he is a little bit glassy player with many injuries
* Donaldson is on his high performance this year and Miami suits his play

Vesely-Sock 3.85
* Vesely has play for top20 but his head is not so good. He was better player than Thiem during junior career.
* Sock has one of the most horrible bh in top100.
* even Vesely is tower he prefers slower courts(clay) and Miami is like clay court
* Sock has good score in Miami but no valuable win and he has played especially with players behind top50 there
* Vesely won 2 3sets close matches. It can help his mind.
Be prepared to backup stakes on Vesely when he can just win service games.
Kukuskhin-Bautista 3.7
* Kukuskhin is much better player than odds show and now he is in good form 8:2 last 10 games
* Bautista has worse period than in the end of the last season
* in IW he withdrew with muscle injury
* in Miami RBA plays a little bit behind his average play

Coric-Thiem 4.3
I think Thiems game is on hard court overrated and his form isn't so good as results show. On the other hand Coric is in bad form but he has qualities to overplay no confident player who playes on baseline

I agree with stake on Rublev.

I think we must agree that one of the most valuable bets for today is Rublev to beat Berdych.As i said a several days ago i don't think Berdych is top 10 player anymore.He is not trustworthy and can lose against anyone.His 1st serve is useless and he makes tons of unforced errors.Nishioka managed to beat him last time and i can't see any reason why Rublev can't do it today.Miami courts are on the slow side which will arguably suit none of them but while the Russian had already achieved an impressive win giving only 2 games away to Mayer,Berdych is yet to experience a match in Miami this year.I think he will sruggle big time and if Rublev take the 1st set he will win in 2.Bet365 are offering odds of 4.33 on him which is tremendous value.GL!

Gonna try a Miami six-fold on bet365...
Lucas Pouille -3.5 games at 2.0
Fabio Fognini to win at 1.72
Victor Troicki +4.5 games at 1.83
Andreas Seppi to win at 2.50
Yoshihito Nishioka +4.5 games at 1.72
Sam Stosur to win at 2.62
This one might not turn out to well so I will also try Andreas Seppi, Fabio Fognini and Lucas Pouille -3.5 in a treble.
Wish me luck 

Victor Troicki to beat Milos Raonic at 5.00 with bet365 /Victor Troicki to beat (+4.5) Milos Raonic at 1.88 with Unibet
Can't trust Milos right now. He's been out since winning the Delray beach semifinal and facing a player like Victor is hard when you've been out and want to get back at once. It's worth taking a chance with Victor with a small stake at this price. Unibet has 4.70, Paddypower 4.50 so at 5.0 it's worth it and Unibet is highest at 1.88 on +4.5 games for Victor. Once Victor has beaten Milos and that was in Beijing 2015 with a 6-4 6-4 scoreline and he's lost two times by 3-0 in Aussie open 2016 and Canada masters 2012. When Milos lost in Beijing 2015 to Victor he had just won the St. Petersburg open and was tired and jetlagged and now he's uncertain after his walkover in Delray beach. Victor is having a bad time and needs a good result here so I'll take my chances with Victor.

Value of the day for me: Nishioka @4,02 (Pin)
He beated Sock with similar odds and curcomstances a few weeks ago after Sock won the tournament of Delray Beach. At least it's worth a try.
Other bet: Stosur @2,69

Flipkens - Konjuh 2.90
Great odd as for me.
* They have played once, this year in Auckland. Konjuh won in tight match with 1.9 odd for Flipkens. And now is 2.9? As for me, Flipkens is not in so bad form like odds show.
* Konjuh is horrible in Miami 1:2 (Urzsula Radw. and Bertens defeated her)
* Flipkens can play in Miami very well. She won with Kvitova. Defeated by Sharapova and A.Radwanska in three sets and has positive history there.
* Flipkens won with Brady from Brady's MP. That' great for positive attitude.
Fair odd is 2.0 for Kirsten imo.

Parmentier - Babos 2.62
Another nice odd. I understand Babos is favourite because of ranking, good performance in Miami, H2H 2:0 for Babos. But Parmentier(edited) is performance of her life. She won 4 of last 5 matches as underdog! She plays great tennis right now. On the other side Babos has very bad last results on hard court. Last 9 of 10 she has lost. She won indoor title in Budapest and she can be too satisfied with that for longer time.

Parmentier - Babos 2.62
Another nice odd. I understand Babos is favourite because of ranking, good performance in Miami, H2H 2:0 for Babos. But Parmentier(edited) is performance of her life. She won 4 of last 5 matches as underdog! She plays great tennis right now. On the other side Babos has very bad last results on hard court. Last 9 of 10 she has lost. She won indoor title in Budapest and she can be too satisfied with that for longer time.

Flipkens - Konjuh 2.90
Great odd as for me.
* They have played once, this year in Auckland. Konjuh won in tight match with 1.9 odd for Flipkens. And now is 2.9? As for me, Flipkens is not in so bad form like odds show.
* Konjuh is horrible in Miami 1:2 (Urzsula Radw. and Bertens defeated her)
* Flipkens can play in Miami very well. She won with Kvitova. Defeated by Sharapova and A.Radwanska in three sets and has positive history there.
* Flipkens won with Brady from Brady's MP. That' great for positive attitude.
Fair odd is 2.0 for Kirsten imo.

Flipkens - Konjuh 2.90
Great odd as for me.
* They have played once, this year in Auckland. Konjuh won in tight match with 1.9 odd for Flipkens. And now is 2.9? As for me, Flipkens is not in so bad form like odds show.
* Konjuh is horrible in Miami 1:2 (Urzsula Radw. and Bertens defeated her)
* Flipkens can play in Miami very well. She won with Kvitova. Defeated by Sharapova and A.Radwanska in three sets and has positive history there.
* Flipkens won with Brady from Brady's MP. That' great for positive attitude.
Fair odd is 2.0 for Kirsten imo.

I would be carefull. As for me Kerber hasn't come back yet. Konjuh, Puig are similar players. Their top level is high but in avarage they play with many errors. On the other side SweetOlina is exceptional in defence and waits for errors. As I see Kerber won on Svitolina with the best form in 2016 and when Svitolina was younger.
I think it's 50:50

Barthel VS Puig
Apart from Serena and perhaps Kerba, most other female tennis form is like fashion that comes and goes. I remember the huge waves that Barthel first made on the WTA tour when she first arrived, blowing away everything in her path on a consistent basis. Then all of a sudden the form disappeared and she subsequently lost her invincibility and has never been the same since......well, until the beginning of this year. Puig herself has reigned and is currently in decline. People still judge her on her olympic form and still believe that she is still cocooned in it. Lie! I believe that the olympic phase was brief and that Puig is currently as vulnerable as can be. Even based on the possession of raw talent, I still think Barthel is the most complete player based on ball-striking ability. I see Barthel going up in confidence here and taking out Puig who might never find out what hit her in the end. 8/10

Francesca Schiavone to beat Monica Niculescu 2.8 Pinnacle
One early pick for tomorrow. Schiavone form a class above Niculescu nowadays. I watched both games of the first round and I think Francesca favorite in this game.

Lisicki - Wozniacki 4.4
A little bit crazy tip. But some reasons are there for Sabine. Caro could be tired after winning tournament in Honk-Kong and generally successful results in Asia. She defeteated here Brengle  very easy. But Brengle was right opponent to Caro. Many mistakes and no hard hits except first three games. And I think fatigue can catch Caro right now.
Caro has more problems with Sabine on faster courts and Luxembourg is. They met themselves in L. in 2013 and Caro won easily but I hope it was exception of their matches. Lisicki was tournament before in Osaka injured( She was forced to withdraw from the tournament with a left hip injury before her second round match ). And Caro was unable to win easy in HK final over injured Mladenovic who has similiar play to Lisicki.
I know Sabine has poor season but it could motivate her much more to finish the year in better ranking.

The other brother faced far more motivated opponent and missed his chances.
Smitkova - Allertova 3.32 Matchbook
 
Smitkova is playing very strong and serving very well, which is very important in Luxembourg court. On the other hand Allertova made a lot of DF in her first match. Smitkova is typical indoor player and at least will be 50/50 against Allertova. The odds for Smitkova started from 2.6, but I expect to fall once again until tomorrow.