[French Open 2018]

KUZMOVA VS SVITOLINA

This is one game that has a whole lot of expectation wrapped around it for all that it threatens to deliver. Both players are in form with a h2h record of 8-2 each way. Svitolina would clearly seem to have the better form classwise although I feel Kuzmova will attend this conference well prepared. Surely among the formidable array of young ladies that have sprung up in modern day tennis, I believe it is high time we witnessed some of that quality. Kumova looks to be a young woman with a matured head on her shoulders. I strongly believe that she will not go down without covering the handicap or going over the total games. Verdict: Total games over 18.5

[French Open 2018]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

@CzechPunter if Leo Mayer beats Julien Benneteau easily in 3 straight I can consider taking Leo to beat JMDP who even admited on Eurosport that he doesn't like clay after his match against Nico Mahut.

That admission by JMDP is more reason why JMDP should be backed against anybody. I wont be fooled by bluff talk. There was huge talk before the Mahut match about this same story that people were actually thinking Mahut to win or Del Potro to retire. It was neither. What we saw instead was a strong powerful and determined giant barging his way to victory. It was already obvious by the end of the third set that Delboy was in full control, yet he still kept pumping his fist after every shot. You could see the emotion at the end after he won. If you have any doubts, Del Potro has only played 5 matches on clay this year where he is 3/5. Just look at the kind of quality he played against there and look at the scores in each of those games and you will understand why you must let sleeping dogs lie!

[French Open 2018]

Cameron Norrie vs Gojowczyk

For anyone who has lined up compulsary "Must watch" matches at the French Open later today and does not include this, really needs to have their heads examined. True Gojowczyk is in a river of form but Norrie intrestingly enough is on a fairy tale run. For all of us who know this story so well, we know where it all begun not too long ago back in Spain during that memorable epic Davis Cup tie between Great Britain and Spain. Norrie says that his first time on clay was in the juniors, then he played a little on the futures circuit in the UK like Bournmouth and Newcastle.....well, before pulverizing Bautista from 2 sets down. To tell you the truth looking at the form of Gojowczyk, I cannot see how he could lose to Norrie except the hard-to-diagnose factors prevail.

Norrie played three excellent matches in Lyon punishing the big man Isner in the process before losing tamely to Simon For some strange reason, I feel the match with Simon was not a true depiction of the form relating to the three matches prior. It was as if Norrie realised his level was happy with it and took a quick dive to conserve energy. Gojowczyk went on to try to win the final and lost to Fucsovics after wasting some of his energy levels. I do not believe he could resume the form from where he left off and overhaul a Norrie full of stamina and zest. I also think playing a leftie will have its own additional adverse effect on Gojowczyk and see Norrie coming through victorious in the end. The journalists ans tennis paparazis might as well start thinking up their headlines for Tuesdays papers. Verdict: Norrie to keep the fairy tale going with a big win.

[French Open 2018]

Khachanov vs Haider Maurer

The one likable thing about a Grand Slam is that you can liken it to the F.A Cup where everyone comes together to compete for the trophy regardless of ranking. I would not want to say much here before arriving at my conclusion so I can save up enough energy to watch the game. Lol! Khachanov as we know is box office in men's tennis but currently formless....well, that is if i base his form on his current win/loss record. Although it must be pointed out that the losses  were against decent heavy weights of the game. To butress my point, I will call a loss a loss regardless. It leaves Mr Khachanov at 1/5 in the abyss at the confidence end.

Haider Maurer as most tennis afficionados know, is no mug on the clay and would appear to be nuturing some hard-t0-detect form. This game has been on my mind right from when i saw the draw and even more now close to the off time. My gutt feeling? Haider Maurer will surely win a set. This could really turn into a rumble in the jungle with 5 sets a clear possibility. Good Luck!!

[French Open 2018]

51 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Before the draw, I was thinking about opposing Nadal in some shape or form, but he's been handed the best possible draw by the looks of things, with both Thiem and Zverev placed in the same quarter. With that in mind, it seems that only health issues could possibly stop him, so I'm not going to dive into the outright market. In fact, I'm struggling to see where the value should lie in the pre-tournament markets, everything looks messy to me. I have been able to find plenty of match bets that I like though.

Venus Williams (vs. Wang) + Suarez-Navarro (vs. Konjuh) at 1.80 with Bet365

Konjuh hasn't played since Brisbane, she might be here just for the money honestly, while Williams is better than Wang on clay. Much better, in fact. Venus doesn't have any form whatsoever on paper, but that is because she was unlucky to run to the red-hot Kontaveit in two recent tournaments. She didn't play too poorly and should have more than enough to beat Wang.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 2.53 with Marathonbet

Wawrinka managed to beat Donaldson in Geneva before being crushed by Fucsovics, but the bigger issue is that he doesn't seem to have the right shape for battling in a long match. GGL is a decent enough player to get stuck in - and, unless Wawrinka somehow wins quickly, the Spaniard should eventually out-maneuver him.

Benoit Paire to beat Roberto Carballes Baena at 1.50 with Bet365

Benoit Paire was struggling in the first part of the season, but he has been able to find his mojo just in time for the French Open and he isn't going to let his guard down in this form imo. Carballes Baena is a good grinder that's great for small 250s and Challengers, but he doesn't have any big weapons in his arsenal and Paire should have enough time to adjust if he starts poorly given the longer format of the game.

Damir Dzumhur to beat Denis Kudla at 1.57 with Bet365

Dzumhur isn't being given much credit yet again, but I fully believe that he's a level above Kudla on clay. He also tends to raise his game for these bigger occasions, so I fancy him to recover from the bad loss against Rafa and start with a good win here. Kudla hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy in the qualifying (in terms of clay-court qualities).

Martin Klizan (vs. Djere) + Petra Martic (vs. Wang) at 1.99 with Unibet

Klizan was fooling around quite a lot in the qualifiers, but he always raised his game in the end and that should be enough for Djere, who doesn't have anything to build on this year. I had decent hopes for him before the clay court swing, but he's just missing for some reason. Meanwhile, Martic looks like one of those safer bankers to me, Wang has nothing to offer on clay - or on the main level, for that matter.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Denisa Allertova at 1.64 with Marathonbet

Allertova is one of the many WTA players with an ON/OFF switch - and, unfortunately, it's been in the OFF mode since the Australian Open. Her bad form seems to have something to do with her off-court life, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her being satisfied with just the first round paycheck here. Sasnovich should have bigger ambitions.

Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Rebecca Peterson at 1.96 with Marathonbet

Hsieh has burnt me plenty of times, but I still think that she should be closer to 1.70 or so here given her very stellar form all year long. The loss against Buzarnescu was pretty crushing, but Hsieh has a bit of a reputation for not being up for the task all the time, especially before bigger events, so it might've been the case of her just not wanting to be in Strasbourg. 

Surprised you picked Klizan there. Hmmm! Djere has the recent 2- 0 h2h(Clay) advantage and is in decent enough form. the rough road through the qualifiers will certainly not help Klizan even if it looked like he was always in control. I think a more than average upset alert here!

[French Open 2018]

Kvitova probably has had a good recovery time and has done the smart thing. I think she can really be a live danger to the field. Agreed. Thiem is still frivolous and care free. staying out there in Lyon playing two three setters back to back was simply silly. Definately going with Vesely against Lajovic. (strong pick in my opinion). Gregoire Barrere ( home wildcard) should be able to take care of Albot. My last pick of the first round is a young player I love so much on clay and is also a home wildcard. Fiona Ferro. She currently has a horrible record and is playing against an opponent with an even worse record Witthoeft. Hard to see Witthoeft try to pull any weight here with the additional handicap of playing against the home crowd. Finally, I also think Italian joker Fognini looks. vulnerable against Andujar as well as Kasatkina looking dodgy against Kanepi. The latter leads the h2h 2-1 winning both on hard courts and convincingly so. Kanepi's game is bred for clay and I dont not see why she cannot repeat the feat with those heavy shots from her racket. She is in very good clay form too. 

[French Open 2018]

9 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Anett Kontaveit to win 4th quarter at 9.00 with bet365

Max stake on this one. Anett is on the rise and has enough quality to win this on her own without any help from players droping out. It doesn't matter if she faces Petra Kvitova, Caro Woz or Dasha Kasatkina when she is on a roll because she's good enough to beat them all.

On a superficial level this pick would seem to have a lot of value but experience clearly says otherwise. I have pointed out a number of times that the womens game is so intense and competitive these days compared to the days of Graff, seles, when predictions could be more accurate. Now even though there is a number 1 and 2 player in the game, they are not consistent enough to be undisputed by any representation of their rankings. Look at Bouchard, Muguruza, Kerber, and some others. Nullified by red hot pressure. These days the womens game produces champs by turns and seasons. That is, while some are busy trying to win a current tournament, the rest of the pack are looking forward to and aiming for the next tournament. Kontaveit would seem to have peaked too early for a slam and just like Osaka and a couple of others  before her, would seem to have run her race. I cannot see her going past the third round. Same upset alert applies to Bertens too. Mertens looks to have freshened up and should look dangerous as will Venus Williams and Konta. Serena could get going as well if she applies her Grand slam mindset!!.

[May 21 - May 27]

8 hours ago, WaveRunner said:

Anyone else like the look of N Rubin to win vs Fognini @ 3.82 (Pinnacle)

I might put a small amount on this long shot, Fognini has never been one for consistency and I can't see him having a lot of motivation after such a good run at his home tournament in Rome last week. A week before a grand slam I just don't see the Italian giving his best here. Does anyone else agree / disagree? 

I do not think this should have anything to do with a week before a slam. In my opinion Fognini has nothing to aim for within the context of a slam. Tennis for him now should just be about trying to earn a living without ambitions. Even without the slam and tanking factor, this really is a losable match for Fognini against a young player in potent form. Rubin should win a set at minimum asking!

[May 21 - May 27]

RUS VS ARCANGIOLI (Rolland Garros Qualifiers W)

By my reckoning Arcangioli at 9/2 would seem the gift of the day considering the h2h at 1-1 and with Arcangioli winning on clay. Arcangioli is already 13/6 this year on clay against Rus 9/5. Her current form in last 4 games might not read well but having beaten players like Trevisan  and Zarazua already this year. this is too glaring an opportunity to let slip. My bet as always is one with safety in mind. Arcangioli to win a set 13/8 Paddypower(9/10)

[May 21 - May 27]

4 hours ago, Urosito said:

Also believed this is a safe bet, but Zhang is literally playing the worst match I've ever seen from a professional tennis player.

Agreed that Zhang is playing awful as you point out. But fanny in terms of progressive tennis is not the kind of player that you should be putting safe bets against especially in her current form. She is a real talent with a big future well capable of ruffling a few feathers amidst mixing with the elite of the sport.

[May 7 - May 13]

Caroline Garcia vs Kiki Bertens

A lot has already been written about this match that it is one of the most anticipated of the day. Both players are in good form but I would think on different levels. Kiki bertens is a beast on red clay and does a good job of rubbishing her overall ranking of 20. She is so Rafalike on this surface and should really be hard to beat.

Garcia's game is predicated upon  methodological implementation and precision. The serve will have to gel with the extra kick to produce the desired effect most times for easy put aways. Garcia can only win in straight sets in my opinion. Any attempt to stand toe to toe with the beast will surely bring about a detrimental effect. I see Bertens reigning supreme with those dutch-made heavy shots. This match clearly has all the traits of under 21.5 games. Good luck all!

[May 7 - May 13]

Just now, four-leaf said:

No the match could only go one way, either under 20 games or over 19. And it went over 19 and I was on the right side.

hehehe! I really got it wrong and thought we had a tennis problem here, but I now see it very much looks like an english problem. You have just answered the question that has been posing us the problem in your words    No the match could only go one way, either under 20 games or over 19. meaning as was said it could go either way whether in games or in outright win..

[May 7 - May 13]

Just now, four-leaf said:

What are you on yourself my man? I was talking about little brother Martin Cuevas  and btw Sascha Zverev/Evgeny Donskoy just went over 19 games. So there you go.

Still does not validate your point any better regardless of whether you got Donskoy right or wrong. The point Czech made about the match going either way still remains valid even after the result.

[May 7 - May 13]

38 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

No it can't go either way. It can only go one way in tennis. You have a strange way to see it. It's like I would say that Martin Cuevas could beat Rafa Nadal on clay since a match can go either way.

What are you on about my man? Every single match no matter who is playing can go either way. You also picked a very bad example to try to butress your point. Cuevas and Nadal most times can go either way. They have always had tight matches together and Cuevas has even beaten Nadal once. So there you go.

[May 7 - May 13]

Kristina. Exactly the point i was making about both sisters having a languid and laid back approach to the game. She loses from a position of advantage. They really have to learn to be aggressive hustlers.

[May 7 - May 13]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Caroline Garcia to beat Julia Goerges at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Karolina Pliskova to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.80 with William Hill

Two big hitters against two big hitters, but I believe that Garcia and Pliskova have a bit more finesse on clay than their opponents. You may laugh at me saying that Pliskova has more finesse than someone else, but yeah, in comparison to Stephens, definitely. Meanwhile, Goerges is just shambolic all the time and hasn't looked great since that painful loss in Charleston.

I like the Garcia pick even though I realise that it will not be by any means straight-forward. I just cannot seem to digest the Pliskova pick. One of the negatives about both Pliskova's game is the languid and laid back application to their matches. karolina has improved a bit in that she has now begun to hustle and bite . Good responsive counter- aggression against an organized Azarenka onslaught.. She certainly needs a bit more to be on the same level as sloane. Sloane is a player that is unstoppable when she wants to be. Scores of her first two matches are indicative of that. If she beat Pliskova that bad on hard courts, then be sure a repeat is brewing

[May 7 - May 13]

Edmund another shitty player. Inconsistent as a dice.

[May 7 - May 13]

He cannot even cover a 5.5 games start  and makes me lose £286.00. If i was ahead and needed Edmund, the mug would retire.

[May 7 - May 13]

Medvedev real shitty performance! He should be home watching TV.

[May 7 - May 13]

59 minutes ago, ElPrincipito007 said:

Harrison @2,55 (Marathonbet)

Not in great form, but the H2H against Garcia-Lopez (5-0) is too good to let it pass.

 

 

Very true.....the problem with it is that it appears too true. I strongly believe that there is a greater chance of Garcia-Lopez winning his first game than for Harrison to keep the winning streak going especially with home advantage for the first time.  

[May 7 - May 13]

5 minutes ago, yogg said:

yeah his form ain't too bad but I was thinking more of his knee injury 18 days ago and he hasn't played since. I guess he's got enough class to pull him thru' though. 

firstly, you never know the true position with these injury situations as it has now become a financial and tactical part of tennis. Raonic was slightly shortened this morning which would seem a plus. On the whole in my opinion it would have to take a specialist grinder in the Bautista range to bet against a serving monster like Raonic at this sort of tentative stage. Even that still requires luck.

[May 7 - May 13]

1 hour ago, yogg said:

hey Czech, do you think it may be worth taking on a not match fit Raonic today somehow?

It is always never a good idea to take on big servers like Raonic Isner and Karlovic for early upsets on any surface even if they are running on bad form because they could just end up outserving the opponent and messing up your day. Raonic's form is not that questionable as to think of considering victory in favour of Kicker. What I think is a solid bet is Raonic over 12.5 games 4/6 . He should be able to find a way past Kicker with Dimitrov next in line. Good luck.

[April 30 - May 6]

16 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'd say that this is way too many bets, but then again, I always say that. Also, sticking the same matches on multiple parlays isn't exactly best practice imo.

Good point you make there about sticking the same matches on multiple bets. I call that a cardinal sin.

[April 30 - May 6]

3 hours ago, yogg said:

nice try with just Edmund letting the side down for a 3.15 four fold.

This is the cold chill of deceptive reality that the game carries along with it; a kind of calculated and sinister madate that everyone is governed by however clever we may think we are. It is no secret that 95% of parlays most times and every time lose out by one. (Somewhat of a demonic code factored in) I can lecture on this for hours on end without the person even coming close to comprehending the basis on which this intricate subject matter is predicated upon. I call it the biggest fraud of all time ever known ....or in this case not known to man.

Simply put, any result that is 1 away, is default and normal no matter what it turns out to be. 12 out of 13, 24 out of 25 etc. I regard it as originating from this sinister mandate. The code was designed by forces unknown to induce "deeper involvement"(The notion that you will be encouraged to try harder knowing that you were only one away. In reality you are light years away.) It is the reason why I would consider a person who got 4 or 5 from 7 as a much better result than one who gets 20 out of 21. Still, in plain visible terms, good result!

[April 30 - May 6]

Nicholas Jarry Vs Carreno Buster

This really looks a very tasty encounter on paper with only one possible outcome on offer. Really? Jarry is the younger of the two, a young prospect who recently reached the semis and final of two different claycourt tournaments in south America. He has won 7 from his last 10 matches and is beginning to develop into a major force on the clay circuit.

Carreno Busta-Pablo 5/4 on clay but I will assume in slightly better overall form than Jarry. For me, by default, I always put market forces and market moves ahead of stats and it has always worked for me more times than none. Carreno Buster was 3/10 against kicker(Yes, the danger odd) where I activated a watching brief. Here again he is thrown in at 3/10? This combined with my strong belief that Jarry is very progressive leads me to my conclusion. Verdict: This match should clearly be on the racket of Jarry as the man with the momentum. Bus as you know, I am a man who always thinks profits first. Jarry to win a set @evens paddypower 9/10. Good Luck!!!