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Posts posted by liquidglass

  1. Djokovic VS Carreno Busta

    There certainly cannot be too many confident tipsters around now with the amount of quality body blows that the bookies have inflicted over the last week or so. Still we keep coming forward with our gloves high up over our faces hoping to land that knockout punch on the bookies. Ask Alexander Povetkin. lol!!! There is nothing to say about Djokovic as it stands so I will quickly go on to talk about Carreno Busta. Firstly the head to head between both men stands at 3-1 Djokovic  which begun on clay back in 2014. Djokovic won that match in straight sets 6-0 6-1. They met again on clay 3years later in 2017 Monte Carlo. Djokovic won that one this time in three competitive sets 6-2 4-6 6-4 (It was evident that Carreno had adjusted a bit to the Djokovic game by the improved scoreline. Fast-forward to 2019 Cincinnati (first meeting on hard courts) Djokovic wins 6-3 6-4 which kind of indicates that Carreno would have put up a decent performance there. Their second meeting on hard courts came recently at the US Open last month where like in the previous meetings on clay, Carreno showed improvement from the first meeting. Remember that he had just broken Djokovic to lead 6-5 which was what led to the disqualification of the Djoker. I am not trying to commence a victory campaign for Carreno here, rather I am trying to point towards the value in backing the underdog in a certain way that should lead to profits.

    Carreno Busta would not have quickly forgotten where he was in their last meeting before it was called off and will draw a lot of confidence from there. I also believe that he would additionally have an improved chance of bettering that performance since we are talking clay here, and so far to this point he has really done well to maximize his energy levels with the time that he has spent on court so far. The target here is total games over 27.5 @1/2(alternative totals paddy power) again maximum stakes advised. Good luck folks!!!

  2. 10 hours ago, BrandNew said:

    Ok, firstly, I’ve dodged a bullet there somehow. I was choosing whether to bet big on Svitolina to win the match, or Svitolina 2-0, or Svitolina -4.5 games on the handicaps, because I thought Podoroska would struggle to win more than a game or two. I decided to go under 20.5 games instead, in case anything ridiculous happened and Podoroska somehow got an easy win. 


    I can’t believe what state the WTA is in. I thought they had done really well the last couple of years to improve the randomness problem, and improve the standard and consistency at the top of the game. Fair enough, there are several top 10 players absent, but even still, if you have one of your major tournaments, and the three remaining players in one half of the draw are ranked 54, 131 and 159 in the world, then YOU DON’T HAVE A SPORT. That’s a lottery, not a sport. Fair enough a few upsets, or one unknown player going on a great run, but there’s no way in any sport that those sort of rankings should be competing for a place in the final of a major tournament. You have to have continuity. You have to have a hierarchy. You can’t just have randomness. I’m really upset and disappointed, because I love tennis - probably the WTA more than the ATP - and I despair for the state that it appears to be in.

    What state is the WTA in? Randomness or consistency, it is clear that the standard of tennis has still remained very very high even without the usual old faces. In fact true aficionados of the game will certainly prefer randomness over predictable and mundane consistency. It is what keeps everything intriguing and exciting. Also it matters not what the ranking of the three remaining players are. We can all see that they are all far better than those numbers will care to indicate.  Even before this competition a player like Iva Swiatek would always be priced respectably by the bookies regardless of who she was playing and there certainly cannot be anything random in the scores she has produced on the way to completely obliterating her opponents including Halep.

    Covid 19 has just helped to jettison an old era of tennis  to instal a brand new brigade of young talent same as we currently see in the men’s game. What the covid 19 situation has done for these lowly ranked players is that it has afforded them to play in an empty arena without the usual tension that the crowds or the centre courts would have otherwise brought, thus allowing them to play with the uttermost freedom from the abundance of the talent within. It is the main reason why you will begin to see these faces at the later stages of tournaments even after the old brigade has returned. Things have really changed in all spheres of life and that change has come to stay.

  3. Fucsovics vs Rublev

    This is one of the matches that I thought I would get involved in today in the belief that I really think it will be a match that will deliver on all fronts, most importantly from a betting perspective.

    Fucsovics has really been one of the most improved players in the men’s game over the last 2years albeit codedly. I really believe that his destruction of Medvedev came more from hardwork, consistency and perhaps a new belief in himself that he really belonged with the very best on this surface.

    The head to head between both men stands at 2-0 Fucsovics, one win on clay in Barcelona in 2016 and the other one in a Davis Cup match on hardcourt in 2017. In my opinion Rublev has certainly improved in leaps and bounds since then but not enough to think that he is anything special other than a mundane aggressive ball-basher who is hopefully on the rise.

    The thing with Rublev is that he only relies on a cul-de-saclike plan which he brings to court with no backup whatsoever, and to be fair to him It has worked well for him so far. However Fucsovics is more tactically sound in the sense that he always makes the necessary adjustments during the course of a match and certainly looks the right man to be on for the win. He plies his trade so very well on clay and has won a title on the surface. Even looking from the angle of Rublev’s last three games to this point, he played 5 sets with a hopeless Querrey, 4 sets with Fokina who is a decent player but a few levels below class-wise ,and Anderson who really should have been better off doing his own version of the Jerusalema rather than coming out to be counted as an also ran, we see that Fucsovis has a real live chance here at very juicy odds of 4/1. I have decided not to be greedy and have gone for him to win a set @paddy power 8/13 max stakes. Good luck all!

  4. 1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

    Jannik Sinner (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal at 3.24 with Pinnacle

    Sinner has been moving through the field very quietly, but he's been beating some big names along the way, including Goffin and Zverev. He's dropped one set against Nadal's one, but he's faced much sterner opposition. I don't see him winning this, but he's a major talent on clay, with his win over Tsitsipas standing out in that regard. I like the set handicap more than anything else, because something like 1-6 6-3 3-6 1-6 is clearly in play.

    This really would have been a very good and positive tip but for the opposition that Sinner is up against. Against Nadal, he is not going to get credit for the brilliancy he has shown to get him up to this stage. Most flat hitters of the forehand and backhand will not stand a chance against the Nadal brutal style of play. Just take a look at the scores of Nadal’s first 4 matches with 0, 1 & 2 very rife in the straight sets wins he has dished out so far. I cannot see  Sinner hit the ball with any more intensity than Travaglia did. Well, maybe 15 or 20% more at best but surely to no avail. It is going to be brutally difficult for him to stay in rallies with Nadal’s constant barrage of awkward and unfriendly spins. Nadal just does not have cool off periods in his matches and a set requires too much off times from him which I see as unlikely. It would have certainly been different on a hard court. Still, no one knows the way things have been panning out post covid stylie. Good luck!

  5. I guess everybody is still as much pulverized as Halep is. In this very hard-to-phanthom indulgence, there is no such thing as a free lunch in freetown. The bookies are indirectly telling us that there is no place to hide....not even in Swiatek. Tennis is more about matchups than any single individual brilliance. So Swiatek whilst in sublime form may not necessarily be the best thing since sliced bread. The whole field is still loaded with so much talent. I still feel that Ferro and Garcia can find improvement and enter this equation well. Garcia is very error prone but can be systematically clutch once she gets into rhythm. She still has problems closing out big matches and I do not think that will go away easily. Her big for glory can fully take off if she can beat Svitolina. She really should be able to accomplish that somehow. All to play for now in a very even field.

  6. 10 hours ago, rodxuabht said:

    Siniakova - Bertens: Siniakova to win at any betting site which gives you the win in case of a withdrawal:

    I mean, I wouldn't even be surprised if Bertens withdraws before the match has started, but if she decides to play. Well, she won't have the time of her life. She was injured, exhausted, and the obvious lack of fittness is on the surface. She's in a horrible form, my honest opinion is that Errani is just a joke.

    Siniakova is nothing special ( if you ask me), but for her to not to get a set, therefore to minimum get a 3 setter match - in which case the fatique comes in again. - this is all Siniakova to the next round. I am disrupting my max 5% bet, this is a 10% again.


    I have a very good feeling that this here will get a lot of people sucked in especially now that Siniakova is becoming somewhat of a public bet. Did Errani not say in her interview that Kiki was still loaded with stealth energy? I think Bertens rediscovers beast mode and finds a way to win this.

  7. Kasatkina vs Azarenka

    It is no news again that Azarenka is in form which has now been going on for some time. I just feel it is about time her form cools off a bit either from the accumulated fatigue from the US open and other matches or just from a much needed pause period before the French Open commences.On the other hand Dasha looks to be picking up her game again especially on her favorite surface. She has won her last 4 matches in straight sets even if we give room for the fact that the opponents were a bit sub-standard. Azarenka leads h2h 2-0 the last game played on clay in 2019 which ended in 2 close sets. With the value on Dasha, i will go with alternative +5.5@ 8/11 handicap paddy power. Good value.

  8. 6 hours ago, Torque said:

    1pt Danka Kovinic to beat Elise Mertens @ 4.33 Bet365

    Kovinic is in some really good form just now, and beating Bencic so convincingly in the last round should mean she's full of confidence and believing she can get another big win. Mertens is a top player and her ranking reflects that, and she too has looked good so far at this tournament but she might be getting to the stage now where her focus begins to shift to the French Open. If that happens then Kovinic has the talent to take advantage and momentum on her side - sometimes a player comes from nowhere at a tournament and that could be Kovinic here.

    Just a bit of additional info to boost the Kovinic campaign. Yesterday Mertens withdrew from the doubles for reasons she gave as sickness. She also had a medical timeout yesterday that had to do with a nose bleed plus considering her recent run at the US Open it would seem about the right time for a change of the guards.

  9. 2 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:



    Marketa Vondrousova(#19) to beat Arantxa Rus(#71) at 1.75 with bet365 

    I happen to believe that the young Czech is one of the best players on clay courts these days. I like the fact that she almost never feels intimidated by whoever she's facing...In general, I consider her a very smart tennis player. Rus on the other hand has surely improved her game a lot, but she's kind of a one-dimensional player. Vondrousova should be able to control the rallies of the game and get the valuable win. 

    Whilst I will agree with some of the points you have made about Vondrousova, I certainly disagree with the verdict that you have arrived at. Vondrousova has not been in form for some time now and still has not dropped any sort of hint of nearing any sort of form. On the other hand Rus has been in good nick most notably taking Serena to a close final set in Cincinnatti. She also is no stranger to the clay where she plies her trade well on. Rus will definitely relish the challenge of playing Vondrousova  who will come armed with a mixture of spins and moon balls. I strongly believe that the Rus power game will prevail in the end. The deciding factor for me is that Rus is also left handed and can neutralise the Vondrousova threat easily.

  10. I will not waste too much time with trying to analyze the already analyzed. Tsitsipas is my subject of focus here. He currently is having one of the lowest points in his career and I think we can further capitalize on his woes with backing against him and quereshi in the upcoming doubles match. The bookies have just taken the necessary precaution to block it as I type. The odds have dropped further but it is one to note.

  11. 6 hours ago, mdlp said:

    Kerber had more errors than usual but she didn't play horrific tennis.  What really happened is that Siniakova played like she used to back in 2017 and was lights out.  Very unexpected but this is tennis!

    I really wonder what game you were watching. I watched that game from beginning to end and Kerber was shit till about 0-3 in the second when she suddenly raised her game a few notches out of the ordinary. By then, the birds had flown.All through the match Kerber never played with her usual hustling zeal. She hit only what was in front of her and let anything further to the left or right go. It is certainly misleading for you to suggest that Siniakova won that match from any sort of vintage form she may have conjured.

  12. Quote


    This is the main reason why Osaka is a long way from being mentioned in the same breadth as with the greats of this game. A one dimensional bully who never has a plan B. It’s a long time I saw her sulk like a baby. Funny she has never been able to part with the gloomy habit. Simply a paper tiger!,

  13. 3 hours ago, freeyourself84 said:

    One more airbag-bet?  I just heard the match is likely to play indoors due to rain so this is really good for Naomi.

    All in on airbag mode and backed by some positive reasoning. The Brady game even giving ample room for a loss, should be able to hold her serve more than enough times to cover what i see as a week target. The real target should be 4.5 and I still think that she covers that easily. Brady has also played better up to this point in the tournament compared to Naomi who has wobbled a bit under the barrage of a few body blows. Secondly, this has really been a strange year and even if I cannot rely on humans to deliver, I feel it is about the right time for the covid 19 effect to kick in as I know it must. The odds have moved well enough to indicate that Brady will certainly show up very well(Yes! I said it!) This will be one of my biggest game wagers ever. ever!! Very well worth the risk for me and with my bottle of red wine already in position, I feel ready to roll. Common Naomi, bring it on!!!!!!

  14. 1 hour ago, Larkin22 said:

    Osaka is the best female tennis player right now. Her best > anyone elses achieveable best. I agree that Brady has been playing better this tournament, the assumption is that that will force Osaka to play better and ultimately come through. I do see a lot of value in Brady and the handicap though as its a large assumption. But similiar to how Serena has been struggling each round and then just raises it enough to get through, the market is assuming Osaka will raise her game enough to overcome anything Brady has to throw at her.

    A huge percentage of that large assumption must center around how much Brady really believes in herself and play within the freedom of the invisible mode that has brought her this far. Both players really thrive on playing on the front foot and winning most of their points behind the first serve. Therein lies the equal chance for both.. Brady has a very potent serve backed up by the security of heavy balls on both sides of the racket. I really think that she has more chances of winning than has been reflected by the market.. I will not comment on Osaka aside the fact that I feel that she is too short a price from what I can see. Unless she has solely been priced in the hope that Brady might just be overwhelmed by the whole situation. I think not. Just to add an extra thought. I have this feeling that Serena's chances of making number 24 is predicated on a Brady victory. Alternative handicap Brady +5.5 on paddy power @ 4/11 heavy stakes seems the way to go.

  15. 2 hours ago, Torque said:

    The more I watch it the more it seems really strange. I don't doubt for a second it was an accident, but at the same time he's hit the ball in the general area of the line judges and pretty hard as well. Perhaps for some reason he thought there wasn't going to be anybody there - after all he turned and hit the ball rather than facing that way to begin with.

    I think it goes with the same irresponsibility of driving 40km/hr in a residential area that stipulates 10km/hr on the excuse that you were not expecting kids to be playing on the street at the particular time. Yes, it was obviously unintentional, but It was also reckless and irresponsible for him to be insensitive to the consequences of such an action. Where else did he expect a ball that he had hit so low to land? It was the same sensitivity to the consequences that made Goran look away immediately in disgust as soon as it happened. Well, maybe it is just a further expression of the times that we are in now post covid. It will be wise now to start looking on the women's side for alternatives past Osaka and Williams!

  16. 3 hours ago, darko08 said:

    Brady is one of the most in-form players right now.

    Agree fully, however I still think Brady is priced way too short on Garcia. I even feel that the Garcia game is a more robust version of the Brady game (precise redirection and easy power) Taking the alternative handicap on paddy power is a superb idea on big stakes. I have gone really big and safe to take Garcia with a +5.5 handicap @4/11. I call that a bet with an airbag included. That handicap should be able to resist any sort of impact in the event of a serious accident. Good luck folks!!!

  17. 1 hour ago, darko08 said:

    Ann Li to beat Kerber at 3.00 with bet365

    I'm still impress with how Li destroyed Riske yesterday. The young player took the lead on almost every single point. Riske tried to change that but nothing could do against her. She served quite well and only conceded 1 BP in the whole match, which is really impressive considering the player she was facing. I expected Kerber to win her first 2 matches here (as I said before, I wouldn't be suprised if she reaches the SF's) but she has struggled a little bit (more than I expected). If she would have lost the TB of the second set against Friedsam the match would have turned in a 50-50 match, I think. It's hard to know if Li can repeat a performance like that, but if she does and Kerber adopt a defensive style against her she can suffer more than the odds suggest.

    Jessica Pegula (+4.5 Games) to beat Petra Kvitova at 1.75 with 888

    First big test for Kvitova. She will have to face an in-form player who has demonstrated to have the weapons to beat big hitting players. In Cincinatti she won against Anisimova, Brady and Sabalenka, which is quite impressive. Kvitova suffered against Kozlova. The ukranian was serving to win the first set and she even had a SP. I definitely expect Pegula to trouble Kvitova more than the odds suggest.

    i have a very good feeling that Li will come against a road block in Kerber. It is very evident that Kerber is beginning to motor. I have seen her play and now know for sure. Many players came here with different objectives post covid. Kerber has come to really try to win this thing.

    Have you seen Pegula lately? She is strapped up to the hilt and looking tired. She is never going to beat Kvitova in that state. Kvitova is another one with a genuine outside chance.I do not see her staying within 4.5 games handicap. Expect her to stop trying somewhere into the second set.

  18. Raonic Vs Posposil

    I  think that there is a lot about Raonic's that still leads one into believing that he stills flatters to deceive. He looks more or less like a beautifully grilled brownish scrumptious piece of chicken only to take a bite to discover that its not properly cooked on the inside. Oh yes, I will admit that his game has drastically improved from what it was before at serve-bot mode. Now there is a new intensity in his shot-making, ferocity and tenacity to stay in points. Looks like he has recently purchased a new pair of Canadian balls that are currently serving him well. I just felt that after going up a set over Djokovic in Cincinnati and failing to take the match, it was a reminder that he might just still be orbiting as opposed to actually moving forward.

    On the other hand Pospisil's career has really been up and down plagued by injury over the last many years but the talent has always been there. He currently leads the head to head at 4-3 and interestingly enough won the very last encounter in Antwerp in 2018 in straight sets. In those 7 meetings Pospisil has only failed twice to win a set which brings me to the possible viable options. Pospisil to win a set at bet365 is 5/6 which seems super juicy. Then there is the possibility as has happened many times before in a typical match scenario that he just might not be able to get a mini-break in any tiebreak and go down 0-3. The best option will then be over 37.5 total games @8/11. it means that this match at least can end in three sets and go over 37.5 games. It is certainly worth a try.

  19. Berretini vs Humbert

    I see these two as major shareholders in the future of this game as time goes on. I really cannot get my head around how Berretini has arrived so short a favorite considering that he holds no outstanding advantage over this foe. In fact Humbert leads the head to head 1-0. The bookies could tender this half baked fact that Berretini is at no8 compared to Humbert at no 42. I note that Humbert is actually two years younger and I think that equates well on the progressive curve. Too many juicy options on this one. For big stakes Humbert to win a set at 4/9 looks decent enough. A more robust bet can also be taken for medium stakes @Bet365 Humbert to win 2 sets 6/5. I am really relying on the quality of mustard that will come off that Humbert lefty serve to bring this bet in. Taking into account the kind of year this has been, a lot of surprises are expected here at the US open. I believe that Humbert has the right credentials. Good luck all!

  20. 46 minutes ago, Tobulas said:

    Mladenovic losing from 6:1 5:1 up.. what a joke 

    I just realised that she could make 3 or 4 times more than she earned from that loss by backing herself to lose at that point. The bookies would have been crying all the way to the bank. Maybe they are. Hard to believe that it was not deliberate. That loss there requires lamination!

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