four-leaf

Jelena Ostapenko (+6.5) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.80 with Bet365
So, Ostapenko has been struggling so far, while Swiatek seems to be as dominant as ever. And yet, +6.5, with Ostapenko leading the H2H record 3-0? And yes, that does include a reasonably recent 2022 win in Dubai, so it's not just about some old matches. Ostapenko has a playing style that can take anyone - even Swiatek - out of the comfort zone, and I think that this line should be covered most of the time.

My plays from the US Open today:
Acca @ 2.11 Pinnacle (NAP)
Alcaraz -1.5 Sets x Medvedev -1.5 Sets x Sabalenka -1.5 Sets x Kasatkina +1.5 Sets
I would be shocked if Alcaraz or Medvedev dropped more than a set and both should really be winning in straights. Sabalenka has looked very good so far and meets a player she beat 6-0 6-2 at the same tournament last year. Not expecting such an easy win but should still win 2-0. Kasatkina faces Minnen who has done very well to get to this stage but Kasatkina is just simply the better overall player. I would be shocked if she does not win at least a set.
Daniil Medvedev 3-0 @ 1.80 William Hill (NB)
Baez has now won 12 matches in a row but this should be the end of the line. On clay he may have the chance of an upset but on a hard court Medvedev should win this one comfortably. Until recent weeks the results for Baez on hard courts were pretty grim reading. This year he has lost to Garin 7-6 6-3 in Miami, 6-1 6-2 to Fritz in Indian Wells, 6-4 6-4 6-4 to Kubler at the Aussie Open, 7-6 6-1 to Shelton & in 3 sets to Martinez. Overall Baez has won just 13/37 matches on hard courts & 7 of those have come in the last 2 weeks. He now faces a player who loves the surface and has an impressive 75% win record winning 252/335 matches on hard courts. At 1.80 there is just about enough value for me on this to make a play.
Samsonova vs Keys
Over 22 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle
Over 10.5 Games 1st set @ 3.70 Pinnacle
I'm expecting this to be a very close match. Wouldn't at all be surprised with a 7-5/7-6 set scoreline meaning this could be won in a straight sets win. However, I do feel there is every chance this goes long. They have played each other twice before with both going to 3 sets. The first of these on grass in 2021 went the way of Samsonova 7-6 2-6 7-6 & the most recent going the way of Keys 6-3 3-6 6-3 in 2022. Both players possess big serves & there is sure to be some heavy hitting & winners in this one. Weather is also getting hotter so that will help to speed up the balls and neither of these players are known for wanting long rallies.
Other plays today:
Carlos Alcaraz Under 18.5 Games @ 2.12 Unibet
Jarry vs De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 2.04 Pinnacle
 

Face-palm level of badness there.
Peyton Stearns to beat Katie Boulter at 1.73 with Bet365
Stearns looked good against Tauson, though that result shouldn't be overestimated due to Tauson falling away physically in set two. Still, Stearns was pumping herself up, she's beaten Boulter already in this season, and she's going to have the same or even better crowd support as against Tauson.

Linda Noskova to beat Ons Jabeur at 2.45 with Unibet
I can see an upset here. Partly because Ons isn't likely to defend every point earned and she is under pressure to keep delivering. Noskova doesn't have to same kind of pressure and can play freely and she also defeated Ons in Adelaide 9 months ago.

By all means @CzechPunter I think you're wrong on Kenin, perhaps you missed out on her raise of level and I noticed she had the same determination as when she won AO20. Kenin could have turned a serious corner this week and Kasatkina you say has been better all year long. Well you can't live on past merits. Now is what matters not how both played last 6 months.

By all means @CzechPunter I think you're wrong on Kenin, perhaps you missed out on her raise of level and I noticed she had the same determination as when she won AO20. Kenin could have turned a serious corner this week and Kasatkina you say has been better all year long. Well you can't live on past merits. Now is what matters not how both played last 6 months.

Kaja Juvan to beat Lauren Davis at 2.10 with Bet365
I saw both Juvan and Davis in round one, and I'm not quite sure why Juvan should be the underdog in this one. She looked better, fit, and confident from the qualifying, while Davis looked a bit unfit and struggled to get going against Kovinic, she also seemed to be limited by some sort of a niggle, with her arm being covered in a bandage. I like Juvan at odds against.

Quentin Halys to beat (-1.5 sets) Benjamin Bonzi at 2.05
Bonzi is no more a name to count on. His form has kept going down for several months. Halys always had Bonzis number. Has beaten him 3 times without a fuzz and no loss of a set in best of 3. Now this is best of 5 and since it is a grand slam things can change but still I do expect Halys to get the job done in less than 5 sets.
Christopher O'connell to beat (+5.5 games) Max Purcell at 1.53
@CzechPunter has already said last week that Max will probably be to tired for USO and even if I belive Purcell might lose this I play it safe and go for +5.5.
Daniel Altmaier to beat (-1.5 sets) Constant Lestienne at 2.43
Lestienne never was the type of player to succeed as a player inside top 100. He had his best season of his career last year but this season when he's played less challengers he's shown that he isn't talented enough for top 100. I can't pick this frenchman to win 2 sets or more, it would be illogical when his opponent is 7 years younger, more talented and has shown he can beat difficult players on ATP level.
Albert Ramos/Alex Michelsen under 36.5 games at 1.87
Don't see how Ramos will have anything to say here. Michelsen is a serious hardcourt and grass talent and top 100 is waiting for him. Ramos is mostly focusing on clay nowadays and likely comes to Flushing without ambitions bigger than picking up the round 1 cash.
Ana Bogdan to beat Sonja Kenin at 2.43
Bogdan is doing better than Sonja now and has been since last season. Kenin hasn't played since Wimby and even lost her only hardcourt matchup with Bogdan in 3 sets. Kenin hasn't done well for a long time and her low odds is probably because of her name. Bogdan is the better player at this stage of these two players careers.
Daniil Medvedev/Attila Balazs under 24.5 games at 1.58
It's very likely that Attila who's best surface is clay where he doesn't even win anything nowadays will get blown off the court. I see no reason why Meddy can't win this 6-3 6-2 6-1 at the very least.
Six-fold at 54.72 with Unibet

I have avoided Wickmayer just because I'm also surprised by the odds and I don't really dare touching Vera. Acctually it's both Sonja and Sofia if you want to go by what she calls herself. It's like Cori Gauff and Coco Gauff. I also agree on Burel.

I have avoided Wickmayer just because I'm also surprised by the odds and I don't really dare touching Vera. Acctually it's both Sonja and Sofia if you want to go by what she calls herself. It's like Cori Gauff and Coco Gauff. I also agree on Burel.

Ana Bogdan to beat Sofia Kenin at 2.43 with Unibet
It's Sofia, not Sonja, @four-leaf, but otherwise I agree :).
Clara Burel to beat Caroline Dolehide at 1.60 with Unibet
Dolehide has been underperforming all season long, really, while Burel is basically at her career-best rankings-wise, which tells a story. The recent form book is also on Burel's side here.
Vera Zvonareva to beat Yanina Wickmayer at 2.55 with Unibet
Ideally you'd take this with a one-ball bookie, but a one-set bookie will have to do for me here. Wickmayer has a chronic back issue, and she was crying with pain in the final qualifying round, getting through only as a lucky loser after retiring in set one of that showdown. Zvonareva looked fair enough on her own as well, so I'm quite surprised by the odds here.

Quentin Halys to beat (-1.5 sets) Benjamin Bonzi at 2.05
Bonzi is no more a name to count on. His form has kept going down for several months. Halys always had Bonzis number. Has beaten him 3 times without a fuzz and no loss of a set in best of 3. Now this is best of 5 and since it is a grand slam things can change but still I do expect Halys to get the job done in less than 5 sets.
Christopher O'connell to beat (+5.5 games) Max Purcell at 1.53
@CzechPunter has already said last week that Max will probably be to tired for USO and even if I belive Purcell might lose this I play it safe and go for +5.5.
Daniel Altmaier to beat (-1.5 sets) Constant Lestienne at 2.43
Lestienne never was the type of player to succeed as a player inside top 100. He had his best season of his career last year but this season when he's played less challengers he's shown that he isn't talented enough for top 100. I can't pick this frenchman to win 2 sets or more, it would be illogical when his opponent is 7 years younger, more talented and has shown he can beat difficult players on ATP level.
Albert Ramos/Alex Michelsen under 36.5 games at 1.87
Don't see how Ramos will have anything to say here. Michelsen is a serious hardcourt and grass talent and top 100 is waiting for him. Ramos is mostly focusing on clay nowadays and likely comes to Flushing without ambitions bigger than picking up the round 1 cash.
Ana Bogdan to beat Sonja Kenin at 2.43
Bogdan is doing better than Sonja now and has been since last season. Kenin hasn't played since Wimby and even lost her only hardcourt matchup with Bogdan in 3 sets. Kenin hasn't done well for a long time and her low odds is probably because of her name. Bogdan is the better player at this stage of these two players careers.
Daniil Medvedev/Attila Balazs under 24.5 games at 1.58
It's very likely that Attila who's best surface is clay where he doesn't even win anything nowadays will get blown off the court. I see no reason why Meddy can't win this 6-3 6-2 6-1 at the very least.
Six-fold at 54.72 with Unibet

Well SST wins her second International WTA title by frustrating Alexandrova with clever returns and loads of grit. To bad I had to blow all my wins away from yesterday on snooker but my decision to back SST big proved to be a fortunate choice and I'm in the green for the week..

I had to cover my debacle with Higgins up with a bigger price bet on tennis in Cleveland which was all wrong from the bookie so it turned out well so far this week for me..

Well SST wins her second International WTA title by frustrating Alexandrova with clever returns and loads of grit. To bad I had to blow all my wins away from yesterday on snooker but my decision to back SST big proved to be a fortunate choice and I'm in the green for the week..

I didn't watch the match but at 3-1 up I just feel like Higgins bottled it a bit. I was worried he'd do that hence the no bet. He seems to have a bit of a mind block with Trump. 

Well long story short: Sorribes got waaay to many balls back for Alexandrovas liking.
Here Sorribes fourth matchpoint which Alexandrova hits wide and conceals the deal...

You can't be surprised @four-leaf I'd have thought just this sort of thing would have been in your thoughts when you backed Sorribes Tormo. This is fairly standard Alexandrova stuff whether she wins or loses and as you say you're wanting her to lose.

It's my birthday today so hopefully I can make it a profitable one.
Aldershot v Wealdstone
Aldershot denied us last week as they nearly got the 3 points against York, but York scored in injury time. I think the game said more about how much York have struggled so far rather than Aldershot being anything special. We were unlucky not to collect on Wealdstone last Tuesday against Bromley and they deservedly got back to winning ways on Saturday when beating Fylde 3-2. The winner came very late on, but we have to factor in that Houghton scored one of his specials from inside his own half for Fylde which clearly is a bit of a freak goal. Wealdstone have been better than Aldershot for me so far this season so I am happy to back them again.
 
Altrincham v Chesterfield
I have watched most of Chesterfield's last 2 games against Oxford and Oldham and I have not been impressed at all. They were lucky to get the 3 points against Oxford, who played very well, and then they lacked ideas against an Oldham side who basically just sat back and let them have the ball. Oldham were even worse themselves although they did manage to create the best chances of the game despite being so poor. Often for me Oldham didn't even press Chesterfield that much in the final 3rd and yet time and time again they lacked the quality to create a meaningful chance. For me this was a game Chesterfield should have won comfortably given how it played out, but the fact they didn't spoke volumes for me. Altrincham are more than good enough to cause them big problems and they have yet to taste defeat this season with 3 draws and a victory over Woking. They look decent value to win this.
 
Curzon Ashton v Scunthorpe
Curzon have scored in every game, but apart from when they scored 3 against Darlington on day 1 they have really struggled to create many opportunites with xG's of 0.83, 0.63 and 0.3. The game against Buxton last week must have been a tough watch with Buxton's xG just 0.28 and they only managed 9 shots between them. Granted they haven't lost yet, but they host the best team in the division and I don't think there will be too many chances to back them at odds against this season so I will take this one.
 
Mickleover v Hitchin (Southern Premier Central)
I said in the ante-post preview for this league that I wanted to add Mickleover to the bets, but I thought they were a little shorter than I was expecting. However not only am I going to back them to win on Saturday, I am also going to back them for the title. They have had a superb start to the season and I want them onside now even though I am taking a shorter price of 9/2. Our only bets so far were Coalville and they had a shocker last week losing 6-1 to Needham Market which was a huge surprise. I still have the belief that they will go close despite that, but Mickleover look to me like they will be big players. Hitchin have won 3 of their first 4 games, but they have had a kind fixture list and lost to Needham themselves.
 
Since I wrote the above last night they have now gone odds on for tomorrow so the price has gone for me. I would want at least Evens to get involved.
 
AFC Totton v Hanwell (Southern Premier South)
I think this looks the best bet of the weekend. Hanwell won their first 2 games, but that was only against Didcot (lost every game) and Basingstoke (struggled in their first 3 games). They then hosted Merthyr last week and lost 4-1 which suggests to me they are going to struggle against the better sides of the division which Totton should be one. One of our ante-post picks they have had a very good start to the season winning 3 and the only loss was to one of our other ante-post bets Salisbury. For me they should have too much for Hanwell and look a good price.
 
National League South
I haven't had too many bets so far in this league and I think it has been a tricky league to call so far. I have however been very impressed with Worthing and I am going to top up our ante-post bet on them to make it a point e/w. They won their first 3 games, including winning 3-0 at Torquay, before losing to Aveley last Saturday. Now I watched Aveley play Eastbourne last Monday and I was pretty impressed with the home side. They deserved the 3 points and I thought they looked the type of side who would make things difficult for plenty of teams this season so I wasn't entirely surprised that they managed to beat Worthing. However they only had 4 shots in the game and managed to score twice and Worthing had 21 shots. They also had a penalty which they scored but the ref ruled it out, which was the right decision, but then the ref gave a free kick to Aveley instead of allowing the penalty to be retaken. That goes in and obviously they get at least a point.
Prices from Friday afternoon
Wealdstone 1pt @ 9/5 with William Hill and Coral (2/1 with 365 and a little bit on Betfair exchange take up to 13/8)
Altrincham 1pt @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (7/2 with Bet365 and take up to 5/2)
Scunthorpe 2pts @ Evs with basically everyone (Hills are 11/10 and take up to 10/11)
AFC Totton 3pts @ Evs with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 8/11)
 
Ante-Post
Worthing 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 (Betway are 12/1 and Skybet 10/1)
Mickleover 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and William Hill

Mirjam Björklund to beat Ankita Raina (-1.5 sets) at 1.71 with Unibet
Decent price on Mirjam to repeat her success over Raina from Ilkley but now on hardcourts. Mirjam is by far best on faster surfaces according to her results and it's likely tough for Raina to live with the precision of Björklund from the baseline. I struggle to find any way Raina likely will have the upper hand in this. Mirjam has beaten everyone easily and it's quite clear she'll likely go through this qualifying without losing a set.

Mirjam Björklund to beat Ankita Raina (-1.5 sets) at 1.71 with Unibet
Decent price on Mirjam to repeat her success over Raina from Ilkley but now on hardcourts. Mirjam is by far best on faster surfaces according to her results and it's likely tough for Raina to live with the precision of Björklund from the baseline. I struggle to find any way Raina likely will have the upper hand in this. Mirjam has beaten everyone easily and it's quite clear she'll likely go through this qualifying without losing a set.

Hawkins wins again. I actually had him on my shortlist for this event but I think Selby prob gets over the line in that half of the draw.
hoping Higgins beats Trump in the semi final and then wins the trophy. No bet for me in the semi finals

Any win. 

Anybody giving Haotian a chance against Selby? Lol