four-leaf

Trungelitti got his comeback done so we've already had one big comeback but Sugita would ofcourse be a bigger one.

Hamou vs Cuevas
I was quite surprised by the results of yesterday's games where I really expected a bit more resistance from the players that I backed against.....but surprisingly they let me get my stash without even the slightest glimpse of a nervous moment in sight, Apart from Bonzi, my main pick on the forum, Makarova, Dodin and Tommy Boredo all conspired with me to rape the bookies. hahaha!
I am spoilt for choice today with so many good picks with all more than decent chances of doing what I expect them to do. As I will never post more than one or two, I have chosen this game as one to write about. 
Seriously speaking, Cuevas should murder Hamou period. Total mismatch in my opinion. Perhaps that is why this is the FA Cup of tennis with all the thrills and excitement expected from the unknown. I have used my system again in analysing this matchup. Quite interesting findings I will say. I always like putting my system to the litmus test especially in situations like these. It is what I am all about in all honesty.
First principle in gambling - a winner is a winner regardless. Hamou comes here with a whole lot of matches on clay under his belt and I mean a lot - plus winning all three matches of the qualifying series in straight sets. And yes, I said it, you do not have to know who he beat. A winner is a winner.
Cuevas on the other hand has played a lot of high quality tennis recently and had some good results too. However he has only won one from his last three.
Odds movement from opening to current clearly backs a good Hamou showing with margin to chose from different markets where you want to make your profits from, Also the organizers of this tournament surely know what they are doing in putting this match in the prime time slot plus the voiciferous home support expected. Hamou's hard face in one look depicts determination and I will take my chances on the evidence already in view. With an investment mind in play the pick is over 29.5 games, even though I clearly expect Hamou to do considerably more, Good luck all !!!!!

Over 36.5 Games - K.Edmund Vs G.Elias 10/11 Paddypower
G.Elias to beat K.Edmund 11/4 Bet365
Over 37.5 Games - Y-Hsun Lu Vs S.Stakhovsky 4/5 Bet365

Elias is being underrated here, whilst Edmund is being overrated. Elias has proven his worth on the clay only last week beatng Del Potro and by the very least Id expect him to get a set here and cover the games. Lu hasn't played many clay matches but he isn't going to get outplayed by Stakhovsky by any means who relies heavily on his serve. On the clay that can't be your only weapon.

Steve Darcis to beat Milos Raonic at 8.00 with bet365
Steve Darcis/Milos Raonic over 3.5 sets at 2.50 with bet365
Steve is a tricky customer and I think he's got a real big chance of winning this. He is in form and having his highest ranking ever and can do some damage to Milos without a doubt. He can make it really hard for Milos here I belive, I might be wrong but Steve is dangerous to a player like Milos. Can see a scenario of 4 to 5 sets here without any bigger problems. Milos will find it hard to break Steve and Steve will find it hard to break Milos but since Steve is such a tricky customer he can also find a break somewhere and be able to hold serve and take a set. Just keeping my fingers crossed Steve will not make a bad match.

2 PICKS FOR THE FRENCH OPEN::

BERTENS -TOMJANOVIC 2:0 SETS @ 1.33 pinnacle
MLADENOVIC - BRADY 2:0 SETS @ 1.34 pinnacle

Expect easy two sets wins for the favorites here, both in-form and can go to the QF/SF stages of the tournament.

 

hello punters!
Ocean Dodin @2.20 offered by bet 365 to beat Camila Giorgi
Bellucci vs Lajovic OVER 37.5 games @1.83 offered by bet365
For the Ocean is her chance to make a voice against unseen Giorgi.
Please always have in mind that we are talking about WTA, a pray together with your placing bets is a MUST
For the suggested ATP pair, i expect long match with minimum 4 big sets!
 
good luck my punters!

Oceane Dodin to beat Camila Giorgi at 2.20 with bet365
As Czech himself pointed out before Oceane can be good to back as an underdog but not very good to back as a favourite so I'm just gonna back her to win straight up here. I don't understand why she isn't the favourite in this one. She's at home, 20 years old, higher ranked than Camila who's 25 and not with the best of form. I think I'll take my chances with Oceane here.

Lesia Tsurenko to beat Kateryna Kozlova at 1.61 with bet365
Ukraniean Lesia should take this one as she's the more complete player of the two and more experienced although her form is not so very good. But a win here I think is not too mutch to ask of her. Kateryna who is also from Ukraine has qualified by beating serbian Aleksandra Krunic as an underdog. Good win for her and good result to qualify for Roland Garros but I don't think she'll past this test. Lesia is only favourite by name and ranking but according to that she should win this and I think I'll go for that to happen but maybe I shouldn't recommend this bet since it may very well go wrong. But anyway, I'm on Lesia. Go Lesia!

Oceane Dodin to beat Camila Giorgi at 2.20 with bet365
As Czech himself pointed out before Oceane can be good to back as an underdog but not very good to back as a favourite so I'm just gonna back her to win straight up here. I don't understand why she isn't the favourite in this one. She's at home, 20 years old, higher ranked than Camila who's 25 and not with the best of form. I think I'll take my chances with Oceane here.

Lesia Tsurenko to beat Kateryna Kozlova at 1.61 with bet365
Ukraniean Lesia should take this one as she's the more complete player of the two and more experienced although her form is not so very good. But a win here I think is not too mutch to ask of her. Kateryna who is also from Ukraine has qualified by beating serbian Aleksandra Krunic as an underdog. Good win for her and good result to qualify for Roland Garros but I don't think she'll past this test. Lesia is only favourite by name and ranking but according to that she should win this and I think I'll go for that to happen but maybe I shouldn't recommend this bet since it may very well go wrong. But anyway, I'm on Lesia. Go Lesia!

Karlovic to beat Tsitsipas at 1.73 BoyleSports (2pts)
I like Karlovic as a slight favourite in this one. Because of his height and relative lack of mobility not to mention that rallies are not his biggest strength, there is a perception that clay is not a surface for him. However, he showed recently against Bautista Agut that he can get results on the dirt and not just against lesser players. Tsitsipas looks a good prospect, but he hasn't played Karlovic before and even on a slower surface he's going to have problems breaking him. Karlovic continues to pick up plenty of free points on serve, and if he mixes things up by coming to the net occasionally which I think he will do then he could bamboozle his young opponent.

Bonzi vs Medvedev
Anyone looking at the games lined up on day one of this years French Open will agree with me that we face a very complex conundrum in trying to find easy winners. There are a whole lot of temptations lurking and one can easily get carried away with the excitement and run into some serious losses if following the early fluctuating markets. As I have always said, I put in a whole lot of work to make sure that my followers can always look forward to real value as opposed to flirting with hope. It is the more reason you will always see me tip in way of investments as opposed to gambling. 
Well Bonzi is a young Player who has been plying his trade on the satellite tour with a lot of victories, especially recent victories in the midst of decent opposition. He really could be anything in this FA cup of Tennis with so many imponderables expected. He faces Medvedev, a very talented player who really blossomed in the last few months showing us that he has some real talent. Medvedev has since being in a bad patch losing his last 5 matches, more significantly, losing 3 from 3 on clay. In my opinion it will certainly be the wrong time and occasion for him to rediscover his form especially against a player like Bonzi who should really be having a lot of vocal support from the partisan home crowd.
I have reached my conclusion by applying one of my very reliable systems that has to do with tracking the market moves points from opening to current time. The system has been very reliable for me working over 80% of times. My conclusion is that Bonzi should win this match somehow in the end. It really should not matter whether Medvedev plays well or not. Clear positive pick on circumstance. However, being an investment tipster, my pick will be 
Bonzi to win a set at 4/11 paddypower*** positive 9/10 Good luck all.

Also this:
Back G.Elias/K.Edmund - Over 3.5 sets at 1.72 with Paddy Power
Edmund on clay is just meh imo, he nearly lost against Monteiro in Lyon, so this should be somewhat close. Elias is a very good clay court player and he always gives it his all, so both players should be able to grab a set.
Back R.Harrison/A.Bedene - Over 3.5 sets at 1.80 with Paddy Power
Two quality players facing each other, this could even be an epic really. Bedene has been in a great form lately obviously, but beating someone as good as Harrison 3-0 isn't going to be easy imo, especially since Harrison seems to have done a lot of mental work over the last year or so.
Back F.Verdasco/A.Zverev - Over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with Paddy Power
Zverev was incredible in Rome, but I don't see how he's beating Verdasco 3-0 and I don't see how Verdasco is beating him 3-0. Both have a lot of skill, but both also have some dips in their play, which should make for an entertaining match.
Back G.Pella/J.M.Del Potro - Over 3.5 sets at 1.80 with Paddy Power
Pella is a top-notch clay court player, knows how to work the ball and exploit various weaknesses. Juan Martin Del Potro has some, most notably his backhand, and his performance against Elias does leave some questions as well. I don't really fancy an upset happening, but Pella should be able to put up some serious resistance.
Back J-L.Struff/T.Berdych - Over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with Paddy Power
I'm hoping Berdych will win this and I'm pretty sure that he will, but Struff is a good competitor and Berdych might need some adjusting after the long run in Lyon, so I'm not sure why this is above evens. Struff has taken sets off A.Zverev, Dimitrov, and Kohlschreiber in recent days, so he's got the form to make this.
Back B.Paire/R.Nadal - Over 3.5 sets at 3.25 with Paddy Power
Nadal's going to win this, but Paire might be good enough for a set imo, definitely willing to chance it at odds above 3.00. He's got the talent, he's got the shots, the only thing he doesn't have is mental fortitude, but that isn't what this bet really requires. Nadal might also want to conserve his energy a bit early on and not play with high intensity.
Back A.Murray/A.Kuznetsov - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power
Kuznetsov is a good player, while Murray, right now, not so much. He's also on some antibiotics from what I know, which is not exactly ideal ahead of a Grand Slam and given that he's been absolutely dreadful so far in this season (by his standards). Last year, he dropped sets against Stepanek and Bourgue (and that was the season of his life), so he can definitely drop some against Kuznetsov.
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Good luck to everyone in this French Open! 

Me to I've put almost all of my winnings from the past two days on Tomas. I think he's up for it today even though he's never beaten Jo on french soil in two tries. Lost in Roland Garros 2015 and in Marseille final 2013. Today against Jo is as usual not gonna be easy for Tomas but I wouldn't rule out a straight sets win for him. He's been serving very well this week, gonna be a tough nut to crach for Jo this time.
Sam Stosur/Daria Gavrilova over 2.5 sets at 2.25 with bet365
The rest of my money I've won past two days on Man Utd and Daria will go on the Strasbourg final to be a 3-set battle. Not mutch to say about this final except that it is a chance I'm willing to take since I belive this is gonna be a tough match with the quite high potential of a deciding set. It's a reason why the price is only 2.25 and not like 2.75 or 2.50 or higher and it's because bookies like Paddypower and bet365 think it's likely to come in. So I think it's a good bet.
Edit: And Jo has never won a title on clay so that also goes a bit in Tomas favour!

Raonic losing 2-0 to Berdych is comical. What a complete tool. I think Berdych is playing well enough to beat Tsonga so I'll be on him today to claw some money back from Raonic yesterday. 

WTA Strasbourg
S.Stosur to beat C.Suarez Navarro Evens Skybet
Navarro is coming back into good form just before her favourite tournament of the year. Her problem lies in her first serve, which at the moment isn't where it will need to be for her to beat the better players. Stosur is serving very well and has destroyed both opponents so far this week. H2H shows Stosur won the last meeting between these two on the clay and I'm backing a similar outcome.

Daria Gavrilova to beat Ashleigh Barty at 2.10 with bet365
In Strasbourg Daria faces Ashleigh and it's a match about Ashleighs serve. She's got a very good serve, hard to break on hard and grass and she's beaten Daria the only time they've met in 2012 in straight sets on hard but that's a long time ago on a surface more fitting to Ashleigh. Clay doesn't suit her as mutch as grass or hard. Wrong favourite here imo. Clay is gonna give Daria more time to set up here shots when Ashleigh is serving. Backed Daria in Rome against another big server in Madison Keys and it went very well so I'm gonna back her again here.

I was going to warn you about the possible danger there especially as it was a very popular pick over the internet. Worse still is the Pliskova relies on a huge consistent serve and once that serve is firing, she can bully her way past anything despite being handicapped on clay. I also never bet against Karlovic, and Raonic because they could frustrate you large. Davis has no major weapons!!!

My treble for today: Lauren Davis, Victor Troicki +4.5, Pablo Carreno Busta

My treble for today: Lauren Davis, Victor Troicki +4.5, Pablo Carreno Busta

Troicki vs Zverev
Since I am on the topic of laws here, I might just go ahead and give the final tip which is a tip that has already been given by Czech. My tip is the somewhat of the same but in a different outcome. Troicki was 11/4 last night and Zverev 1/4. Zverev would really need to go out a point at 2/9 to be positive. Instead he goes out 2 steps to 1/5. Troicki drifting positively to 7/2. This really tells me to expect a positive Troicki performance any where from winning the match to winning either a set or covering the 4.5 handicap. Since I tip in way of investments as opposed to gambling, I will certainly be taking Troicki to win with 4.5 handicap knowing that he stands a good chance of winning the match. Good luck all!!

Hi and welcome @Rusty95!
As for Raonic - I was struggling to find a bet on that one as well, so I decided to just skip it. The 4.5 games handicap looks bang on and I certainly wouldn't dare to touch Raonic 2-0 at 1.50 if I wanted to back the Canadian.

I just thought I will throw in a tip for free. Forecasting can be very complicated and frustrating in this game when a law comes to be countered and thus nullified by a more powerful law. There are too many natural laws to get used to in this game and we learn continuously. I will talk about two laws here and see how they pan out afterwards. Law 1 When a higher ranked player has been beaten by a lower ranked player (Top tier tennis) in a particular week or short period, the chances of that lower player repeating the feat the next week becomes drastically slim. This makes Wawrinka almost a dead certainty to win in whatever way that game is played. Halep/Siegemund fall into this. So by law Halep should win by some hoodini means I must add, unless law strangely fails today. Left to me, I would never have dared thought that way had I not be exposed to these other forms of analysis. Another law that I use is price comparison. This works over 80% of the time depending on the price move overnight. Siegemund was 7/4 win Halep 4/9. Now Halep has gone 8/15 with Siegemund on 6/4. Halep would have needed to move only one spot down to 1/2 to make her expected loss more positive. That 3 step move clearly favours a Halep victory. Well, maybe not totally a Halep victory, because retirement is a big and live option in these analysis. Halep really should not lose. Finally,(lol) in most cases when a tip has been surprisingly duplicated as in how Four-leaf gave the tip without knowing that it had already been posted, never a good omen. Still good luck everyone. We will see how this plays out. Wawrinka and Halep double nap large. Good luck everyone!!!

Laura Siegemund to beat Simona Halep at 2.75 with bet365
Czech will Simona get revenge over Laura now? Or will Laura get another win or am I out sailing here?
Edit: Just posted after you had posted and didn't see you had written the same so I guess I'm not out sailing on Laura to win.