four-leaf

Angelique Kerber to win Australian open at 15.00 with Betsson
Kerber is steamrolling right now and should do well in the first grand slam. She had an awful 2017 so she should be better this season if her form keeps rising like it has since the season started.

I wont have any bets now but I'll give some thoughts on some of the matches in Sydney, Hobart and Auckland, challenger Bangkok and Aussie open qualies.
Adrian Mannarino to beat Fabio Fognini
Adrian have a 2-0 lead on hard outdoor without dropping a set to Fabio, he's good enough to take it again.
Feli Lopez to beat Alex de Minaur
Feli is a top 50 player and cruised past Diego Schwartzman so he should win this since I don't consider Alex to be at top50 level yet.
J-M Del potro to beat Karen Khachanov
J-M in 3, Karen have to many issues to deal with here. For example he won't get that many chances to break serve. J-M have played well in Auckland before as he won the tournament in 2009.
Donna Vekic to beat Heather Watson
Donna is a small underdog here and I can't chew on that. She should be the favourite to win.
Elise Mertens to beat Monica Niculescu (rematch from last seasons Hobart final which Elise won)
Elise have had a good start this season and looks set to continue that way.
Alison Riske to beat Mihaela Buzarnescu
Alison is the better player on this particular surface and Mihaela is not experienced enough to win a match like this.
Angelique Kerber to beat Dominica Cibulkova
Angelique will keep on rolling. If she plays as she's done previously she will win this.
Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Yusuke Takahashi
18 year old Emil is on the rise. Has won the junior masters title in China and after that continued to win his first ITF pro title. He was ranked no.4 as a junior. Yusuke was only ranked 32 as a junior. Small underdog currently but it doesn't matter since I think Emil will win.
Irina Bara to beat Sesil Karatantcheva
I rate this as a 60/40 match and Irina as clearly the better player right now.
 

Donna Vekic to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 2.25 with bet365
I think Donna is the better player here and should win this if she has any top 50 ambitions this season. Marketa is heavily overrated since she won that Biel title last season. I don't see any reason why Donna shouldn't be able to win this. Marketa is also still 17 years old and does have problems to win matches. She is struggling to win and should do so also in this match. I may be totally wrong about both these players but Donna has a lot more experience to count on and that could be a decisive factor. I would be surprised if Marketa sails to a comfortable victory. In fact I think it could be the opposite outcome where Donna sails to a comfortable victory.
Czech what's your opinion? Have I missed something about Marketa?

John Millman to beat Gilles Muller at 1.72 with bet365
Gilles hasn't been playing good tennis since Wimbledon. John has been playing good tennis since US open and that I saw last week in Brisbane when he took a set in his match v Grigor Dimitrov and crushed Peter Polansky in round 1. Now he's received a wild card for Sydney and it seems as he will make it count. Gilles is the defending champ in Sydney. To start the season he lost to Hyeon Chung in straight sets and if he's not playing well he will have problems against a motivated aussie.

@four-leaf Yes, actually, I think that you've missed the fact that Vondrousova is a potential GS winner, she really is one of the most talented youngsters on the tour at the moment. I'm really not sure that she's that overrated, but the fact that she's so young does mean that she's going to lose matches that she should be winning etc. The odds look fine to me, not sure that there's value on Vekic, but I'll be cheering for her, as I have a pre-season pick on her to do well in 2018. She can definitely win and she's only a small underdog, but that's what the odds are suggesting as well, so there you go. Vekic can out-hit her, but Vondrousova should win most longer rallies, hard to say what's going to happen, it's not as clear-cut as the Flipkens-Pliskova match-up was, for example.

Donna Vekic to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 2.25 with bet365
I think Donna is the better player here and should win this if she has any top 50 ambitions this season. Marketa is heavily overrated since she won that Biel title last season. I don't see any reason why Donna shouldn't be able to win this. Marketa is also still 17 years old and does have problems to win matches. She is struggling to win and should do so also in this match. I may be totally wrong about both these players but Donna has a lot more experience to count on and that could be a decisive factor. I would be surprised if Marketa sails to a comfortable victory. In fact I think it could be the opposite outcome where Donna sails to a comfortable victory.
Czech what's your opinion? Have I missed something about Marketa?

Barcelona v Levante; 16:15
Barcelona will miss defender Umtiti, suspended midfielder Busquets, injured Turan and forwards Paco and Deulofeu.
Levante will miss defender Chema, midfielders Morales, Bardhi, and Campaña and forwards Alegria and Marti.
Short preview: as you can see Levante is coming in Barcelona without three important midfielders and regular defender, so on first hand, we could say that their level of creativity will be pretty low, but knowing Levante, the main problem will be that they cannot count on three important players in line whose primary goal was to create a decent block and help defensive line behind them. They conceded only a goal in last three away matches and I expect them to come on Camp Nou with a totally defensive-oriented team. Barcelona will miss suspended Busquets which probably means that buildup will be slower, but Rakitić played solid on this position last time. Anyway, I expect Levante to drop really deep and if Barcelona won't score some silly goals, I think that this match will stay under 4 goals. I've been looking at Barcelona win with clean sheet, but odds are pretty low (1,70) so I suggest under 4,5 at 1,85.

Elise Mertens to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia at 1.57 with BetVictor
2-2 today, with the doubles bets both losing in TBs/STBs, which is kinda unlucky. There probably was something wrong with Fognini, but Lorenzi/Zverev had a mini-break in their TB and didn't convert, which is a shame. Anyway, I don't see all that much for tomorrow, but I will go for this one. Elise Mertens is defending the title in Hobart and, judging from her current form, she could definitely go for. She was brilliant during both the Hopman Cup and her match against Nara, so I have her as a big favourite against Haddad Maia, who doesn't have any weapons that she could use to beat attacking players that are in the zone. Unless Mertens misfires, this will be hers.

Petra Kvitova - Mirjana Lucic Baroni (+4,5 games) 2 with Betway @2,20
I read an interview with Mirjana Lucic a couple of weeks ago in Croatian papers where she said that she never felt so good at the beginning of the season both physically and mentally.Last week in Brisbane she beat Maria and the lost to Cornet but I think these two matches were just some kind of additional preparation for competitive tennis in the following weeks.She loves to play "Down Under" and will probably do her best to repeat last season`s record at AO.
This is going to be the first match of the season for Kvitova after she retired from the tournament in Brisbane due to a virus (I read that on her twitter page).We all know how good Kvitova can be but taking all the facts into consideration I don`t think this will be a walk in the park for her.I expect Lucic to cover this handicap and I won`t call it a miracle if she takes a set or even wins.
 

ITF USA F1
Christopher Eubanks to beat Karue Sell at 1.61 with bet365
The 21 year old Christopher has been serving really well this week. I backed him against Guillermo Olaso and Alex Sarkissian and now he comes up against the 24 year old brazilian world number 691 and he's ranked 347 himself with only a season as a pro. We will probably see Christopher rise a lot in the rankings this season if he continues the way he's been doing this week. He comes from Atlanta and at home in Atlanta last season he upset Taylor Fritz and Steve Johnson to reach the quarters where he lost to Ryan Harrison who came up short in the final against John Isner. Christopher is 2.01cm tall and serves naturally pretty well not leaving many breakpoints to his opponents and he's been doing just that this week. He did well yesterday by beating Kaichi Uchida who is ranked 351 and Kaichi who served very good only droped serve once in the match at the end of third set which cost him the match. Christopher is a player you don't get many chances to get back against if you get broken and Karue is ranked over 300 places lower in the rankings so I think the Atlanta native should win this in at least 7/10 times on hardcourt in the US. Only a small warning should be issued about Karue who is yet to drop a set this week but Christoper is something entirely different to come up against compared to what he's faced this week. The american to win unless he gets outplayed to mutch in the rallies but I honestly can't see that happening in his own serve so as long as he serves as good as in previous matches this week he should win.

ITF USA F1
Christopher Eubanks to beat Karue Sell at 1.61 with bet365
The 21 year old Christopher has been serving really well this week. I backed him against Guillermo Olaso and Alex Sarkissian and now he comes up against the 24 year old brazilian world number 691 and he's ranked 347 himself with only a season as a pro. We will probably see Christopher rise a lot in the rankings this season if he continues the way he's been doing this week. He comes from Atlanta and at home in Atlanta last season he upset Taylor Fritz and Steve Johnson to reach the quarters where he lost to Ryan Harrison who came up short in the final against John Isner. Christopher is 2.01cm tall and serves naturally pretty well not leaving many breakpoints to his opponents and he's been doing just that this week. He did well yesterday by beating Kaichi Uchida who is ranked 351 and Kaichi who served very good only droped serve once in the match at the end of third set which cost him the match. Christopher is a player you don't get many chances to get back against if you get broken and Karue is ranked over 300 places lower in the rankings so I think the Atlanta native should win this in at least 7/10 times on hardcourt in the US. Only a small warning should be issued about Karue who is yet to drop a set this week but Christoper is something entirely different to come up against compared to what he's faced this week. The american to win unless he gets outplayed to mutch in the rallies but I honestly can't see that happening in his own serve so as long as he serves as good as in previous matches this week he should win.

Kirsten Flipkens to beat Kristyna Pliskova at 1.91 with BetVictor
Pliskova did surprise everyone a bit last week, but Flipkens is going to be a very different proposition than the likes of Ostapenko and Bogdan. It will be a clash of styles, really, with Pliskova going for her shots and Flipkens trying to upset her rhythm with all kinds of slices and neutral shots. If Pliskova gets her rhythm on quickly and confidently, she is going to win this, but Flipkens knows the conditions well after the qualifiers and she also has a 2-0 record against the Czech, so I'd have her as the favourite in this match. Looks like 60/40 to me.
Karen Khachanov to beat Yuichi Sugita at 1.60 with Unibet
Khachanov beat Sugita 6-4 6-2 last week and, honestly, this could just be more of the same. Sugita will want to turn things around, of course, but the performances he put in during the Hopman Cup were far from convincing, while Khachanov managed to trouble both Sock and Federer in that tournament. I fancy Khachanov quite strongly here - he could even take the title if things go his way.
Fabio Fognini/Rajeev Ram to beat Viktor Troicki/Jan-Lennard Struff at 1.72 with Bet365
First of all, Troicki and Struff aren't exactly doubles specialists. Secondly, they are both out of the singles and there's a Grand Slam tournament just around the corner, so the motivation factor isn't likely to be that great. Ram is a doubles specialist and Fognini plays doubles very regularly, so I'd have this pair closer to the 1.40 mark here.
Paolo Lorenzi/Mischa Zverev (+1.5 sets) to beat Jean-Julien Rojer/Horia Tecau at 2.23 with Sbobet
The match line is certainly playable at 5.00, but I prefer the set handicap for safety reasons, especially since both Lorenzi and Zverev are in Sydney primarily for the singles. They are capable volleyers, however, and they've played some good matches together, even taking a set off Kontinen/Peers at the end of the last year. Rojer and Tecau will be playing for the first time in 2018, so there might be some rustiness as well - and, well, even one break could be enough for them to lose a set.

CD Leganes - Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad @ 2.45 with Unibet
Today in 20min. Have a strong feeling we might se an away victory here, it's a good opportunity for it. CD Leganes is now reloading for the cupreturn away to Villareal and they're relatively safe in La liga 6 points clear of the drop and I think it's time for Sociedad to win an away match now. They haven't had any good away victories in awhile in La liga so it might just be the time today and they beat Leganes away last season by 2 goals.

Well I was totally wrong about Valencia last time I bet on them when they lost away to Getafe but I'll go for them this time but I think Girona can hold a draw till halftime.
halftime/fulltime draw/Valencia @ 4.33 bet365

@four-leaf, I've merged your post for the Copa del Rey in with this one that was already created.

Alex de Minaur to beat Michael Mmoh at 1.72 with bet365
Alex will win this in his current form in about 7 of 10 times. He's confident, playing at his favourite surface at home in Australia. Can't think of any reasons not to back Alex. He should win this.

Well I was totally wrong about Valencia last time I bet on them when they lost away to Getafe but I'll go for them this time but I think Girona can hold a draw till halftime.
halftime/fulltime draw/Valencia @ 4.33 bet365

Valencia vs Girona
This particular game stands out for me because of Valencia's poor form around Christmas. Despite this, Marcelino's side remain 3rd in the La Liga table. Girona have a decent away record for a mid-table side only tasting defeat on the road a few times. Valencia do have to contend with the suspension of Simone Zaza but I feel they will still have enough to get through this game. It'll be tight but they should take all three points.
Valencia to win @ 1.67 with Betfred
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.70 with 188Bet
Keen to hear the tips and planned bets by those of you that have gotten involved in this league's betting so far this season.
@Magic0024, @malabgd, @betcatalog, @Pep004, @Arkadi Manucharov, @Jamesboaz, @RealUnited, @derbent, and @four-leaf.

Kenny de Schepper to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.25 with bet365
Cameron may be a little overrated here. He isn't better than Kenny by any means. Kennys chances are probably more like 65/45 and he got his big serve to get him out of troubles. Cameron doesn't have any big serve and he lost their only meeting so far in 3 sets last season in Nottingham challenger. I think there will be problems for Cameron again.

Kenny de Schepper to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.25 with bet365
Cameron may be a little overrated here. He isn't better than Kenny by any means. Kennys chances are probably more like 65/45 and he got his big serve to get him out of troubles. Cameron doesn't have any big serve and he lost their only meeting so far in 3 sets last season in Nottingham challenger. I think there will be problems for Cameron again.

Some bets from me for tonight- thank you guys for doing a great job here!
Noumea challenger
Rubin N.- Moutet C.
Yesterday I was against Moutet but by his performence he convinced me to be definitely on his side tonight. I didn't expect such a good match but he totaly destroyed Liam Caruna 6:4 6:2 and had 90% first serve win and didn't give to opponent even a single chance to break his serve. So looks like his previous not impressed matches was connected just with a young age and problems with concentration. But without doubt Moutet is a future star- he used to be a top junior (reached semi finals of AO/ Wimbledon last year) and currently is 155th in ATP ranking and will surely raise soon. Noah Rubin should be a rival which style exactly fits to Moutet- both are small and thin (around 178 cm high) but on paper Moutet looks much better.
Bangkok 2 challenger
Oliveira G.- Nedovyesov A.
Goncalo Oliveira looks to be in a good shape- he has been playing for all December with quite good results on Asian tournamens so he is well adapted to hard courts these days (althought he definitely prefers clay surface). First round here he had a hard opponent- Luca Vanni but reached a perfect win where he was naturally underdog. Vanni is much better player at least on hard courts than Nedovyesov so I don't understand why bookies sees Nedovyesov as a clear favorit, especially that he played yesterday just first game after 6 weeks, managed to win 6:4 6:4 to Takahasi so not high demanding opponent.
ITF Hong Kong F6
Viola M.- Niki T.
Meeting between 2 'veterans'- both will finish 31 years old soon. Matteo Viola was never a great player on hard courts and I definitely won't set him here as a favorit. On other side Takuto Niki spent all career on hard courts and these days he looked really solid- lost just 3 gems in two matches, maybe opponents were horrible but still it says something. On other side Viola looked to be far away of good shape: he won to number 1210 of ATP Ranking- Saito Takashi 4:6 6:2 6:4 but stats on paper are incredible bad: he served just 1 ace, did 5 double faults- just 60% first serve won/ 30% second and lost own serve 6 times.. Looks like Niki is underrated here.
Bets:
Rubin N.- Moutet C. 2 @1,75 8/10
Oliveira G.- Nedovyesov A. 1 @3,00 7/10
Viola M.- Niki T. 2 @2,55 9/10
 

Good to wake up just in time to see Paire take the third set tie-break.. I went to sleep after Nick Kyrgios had broken Matt Ebden in third set for a 5-2 lead. Now off to new bets 

ATP Pune
Benoit Paire to beat Marton Fucsovics at 2.20 with Paddypower
Ridiculously enough Benoit is underdog in this match. Can't belive it, better player, bigger talent, better ranked and when the tournament was called ATP Chennai Benoit reached semis three times and quarter once and only lost once in second round to Dudi Sela in 2012 at his first Chennai attempt and that was also before he reached top 50 and became a steady top 50 player. Marton has beaten Nico Kicker in straight sets, a player who just isn't good enough on hardcourts and now he suddenly becomes favourite to win this. Totally ridiculous! Benoit wins this 9 out of 10 times and he also beat Marton 7-5 6-3 in a challenger event last season on clay and I just can't see why he wouldn't be able to win again.
ATP Brisbane
Alex de Minaur to beat Milos Raonic at 4.40 with Unibet
Milos better have his previously injured wrist ready for this because he comes up against a big talent here who is confident after that win against Steve Johnson and maybe because he qualified to aussie open after winning the AO wild card challenge before christmas. Milos can ofcourse win easily if he serves up to his standards but value lies with the aussie 18 year old youngster.

Long time lurker, first time poster.
Struff vs. Monfils - Struff to [email protected] with Betfair Exchange
I watched Struff against Berdych yesterday and he seemed to be playing confidently, striking the ball well and serving and moving well. He had a blip in the 2nd set, but that's expected against a player of Berdych's quality. What impressed me was that he held his nerve to win the 3rd set tie break. His tie break record in 2017 was atrocious, so that speaks well of his mental state. Monfils is on yet another comeback after injury and like he said after his match against Lorenzi, he has to improve on a lot of aspects. I'm not sure he's physically ready yet for this match and form wise too he might need some more game time to get back to his best. I'm banking on Gael using this tournament as tester before the Australian Open and not going too hard.  
 

ATP Pune
Benoit Paire to beat Marton Fucsovics at 2.20 with Paddypower
Ridiculously enough Benoit is underdog in this match. Can't belive it, better player, bigger talent, better ranked and when the tournament was called ATP Chennai Benoit reached semis three times and quarter once and only lost once in second round to Dudi Sela in 2012 at his first Chennai attempt and that was also before he reached top 50 and became a steady top 50 player. Marton has beaten Nico Kicker in straight sets, a player who just isn't good enough on hardcourts and now he suddenly becomes favourite to win this. Totally ridiculous! Benoit wins this 9 out of 10 times and he also beat Marton 7-5 6-3 in a challenger event last season on clay and I just can't see why he wouldn't be able to win again.
ATP Brisbane
Alex de Minaur to beat Milos Raonic at 4.40 with Unibet
Milos better have his previously injured wrist ready for this because he comes up against a big talent here who is confident after that win against Steve Johnson and maybe because he qualified to aussie open after winning the AO wild card challenge before christmas. Milos can ofcourse win easily if he serves up to his standards but value lies with the aussie 18 year old youngster.