richard-westwood

I'm just backing Johan and Dutch decoy 10pts Ew both 12/1 and 25/1 ....blues I'm thinking probably wants better ground really hence dropped 

I'm just backing Johan and Dutch decoy 10pts Ew both 12/1 and 25/1 ....blues I'm thinking probably wants better ground really hence dropped 

Spring mile 
Titian.  8.7  58 58. 13/2 
Arthur's realm. 8.5 28 30 12/1
Magic memories. 8.5. 41 37 14/1 
These three are clear of rest ....on class ratings you can see Titian is stand out but it's an open race and draw plays a part so I'll try 5pt wins all 3 
 

Blues Emperor                                                  3 35 Don/                        1/40th of a pt ew      20/1
Navagio                                                              3 35 Don/                        1/40th of a pt ew      40/1         - 3rd

Spring mile 
Titian.  8.7  58 58. 13/2 
Arthur's realm. 8.5 28 30 12/1
Magic memories. 8.5. 41 37 14/1 
These three are clear of rest ....on class ratings you can see Titian is stand out but it's an open race and draw plays a part so I'll try 5pt wins all 3 
 

I'm just backing Johan and Dutch decoy 10pts Ew both 12/1 and 25/1 ....blues I'm thinking probably wants better ground really hence dropped 

I've just done VETIVER 20/1eway bet365 ( 4 places ) 
It'll only be her 8th start with 3 wins over 7-8.5f on good to soft / soft & heavy , Balding / Probert good combo & she was 3rd in Group 3 fillies & mares over 7f here in September staying on , she's also already won a Listed , has had a 174 day break but won 1st time out last season & was placed on her debut run & i thought 20's was over priced ( probably be 50's now I've taken early price ) 
Slightly worried that @richard-westwoodhas picked Dutch Decoy as I used to have an eyelash in him but gave up on him when Johnston Snr would just run him on all weather but Johnston Jnr is doing a cracking job with him on turf .

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

I wouldn't bother with speed ratings for Jump races to be honest ......... the final time would be so dependant on the pace of the race that they would be meaningless. The same applies to an extent on the flat as well but over much shorter distances the relative importance is less
I guess speed figures should be most useful over sprint trips on the flat
An analogy with human athletes ........... 100 metre races are run pretty flat out so 'time' is the most important factor in who should win ...... just who runs the fastest !
But over 1500 metres you also have race tactics, pace ..... will it be a slow run race to suit the athlete with a finishing kick or will some competitors set a fast pace to draw the sting out of the fast finishers
The longer the horse race you'd expect the race pace and tactics to be more important relative to pure speed
The way I look at speed figures is that all horses can run slow but not all horses can run fast ......... high speed figs indicate horses that can run fast relative to other horses and they'll always have an advantage because it opens up all the race tactics if you know you can run faster than the opponents (I can see the value of sectional times here to identify horses who can run the last couple of furlongs really fast)

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

Martin pipe last race of festival 
Jay jay Reilly 8.3 30.0
Soningino. 8.3 18.0 
Quel de bourbon. 7.8 4.7 
Gotta try finish with bang ....10pt wins all 3 1pt forecasts 

Gold cup 
Galipin des champs 9.0 11/10 
Bravemansgame. 8.9 14/1 
These two are well clear of rest ...bravesman needs to recapture form but this is the gold cup ...so who knows .....20 PT galipin ...5pt braveman 
 

County hurdle 
Leau du sud  8.9 9/2 
Faivoir.   8.7 16/1 
Pied piper 8.5 12/1 
5pt wins all 3 and forecasts 

Triumph hurdle 
Sir Gino. 9.2 5/2 
Mighty bandit. 8.7 50/1 
Sir Gino is miles ahead ....if it wasn't for his stable form I think he'd be evs ...as a result you can get 5/2 or better ......still got to take a chance at that value ......mighty bandit is an interesting horse ....ran a stinker last time but something looked amiss (virus)...was bought for 420000 euros so at 50/1 I'll have an interesting Ew bet on that too 

Martin pipe last race of festival 
Jay jay Reilly 8.3 30.0
Soningino. 8.3 18.0 
Quel de bourbon. 7.8 4.7 
Gotta try finish with bang ....10pt wins all 3 1pt forecasts 

Martin pipe last race of festival 
Jay jay Reilly 8.3 30.0
Soningino. 8.3 18.0 
Quel de bourbon. 7.8 4.7 
Gotta try finish with bang ....10pt wins all 3 1pt forecasts 

Gold cup 
Galipin des champs 9.0 11/10 
Bravemansgame. 8.9 14/1 
These two are well clear of rest ...bravesman needs to recapture form but this is the gold cup ...so who knows .....20 PT galipin ...5pt braveman 
 

County hurdle 
Leau du sud  8.9 9/2 
Faivoir.   8.7 16/1 
Pied piper 8.5 12/1 
5pt wins all 3 and forecasts