richard-westwood

Great stuff Richard!
Was on for a 5 grand each way treble in the next if Irish Cavalier held on though.  
Thought he was the winner trading at almost 1/2 in running and I hope he held onto 5th.

big race thoughts and form ....
just finished rating current declarations ....risky to bet at this stage as usually only 20 go to post and currently 28 runners but some decent prices on offer so ill chance it before the value evaporates 
annacotty    99.21
boondooma  99.17
sound investment  99.12
kings palace     99.12
 
always a tough race to call and throws up shock results but some decent value in the top two here ...both lightly raced fast improvers ...just the type that does well in this ...boondooma is vying for favourite around the 8/1 mark and that looks very fair ......annacotty ran a fabulous race at chelt and returns here just 3 lbs higher so has to have outstanding chances if reproducing that .....20/1 just looks amazing value and looks overpriced .....nice value bets in an open race .....just hope they both run 
annacotty  5 pts win 20/1 corals 
boondoona   5 pts win 8/1 corals 

105 chelt 
Keel haul     98.87
Sew on target   98.86 
La vaticane    98.81 
La vatixane sets the standard here as fav around 7/2.....will be hard to peg back as has a lot in his favour ....but top two are just too big priced to ignore ....both will have to be at their best to win this and neither is guarnteed to do that but when on song both are fully capable so just down to luck which one will turn up .....nonetheless ...good value bets 
Sew on target  2 pts ew  11/1 stanj
Keel haul    2 pts ew 25/1 boyles 

richard.........Can i just remind you that Christmas is just around the corner, so need a bit more than the above.
Thanks and Merry Christmas 
 

150 donc 
bigtime   98.98
withernsea   98.94
adams ale    98.91
predominance  98.86
 
interesting big hcap .predominance is fav ...lightly raced and possible improver but in a 22 runner race a 4/1 quote looks dire value  .... adams ale is quoted at 25/1 but hes best at 5f ....can stay 6f but this 7f is a huge question so no value even at big price .....bigtime and withernsea have good recent form ....have both recorded good speed ratings and look ready to run well ....prices of 12/1 and 14/1 are just what u want in such an open race ...nice value bets 
bigtime   2 pts ew  12/1 p.p
withernsea  2 pts ew 14/1 wh 

just rated the november hcap at donc 
misterioc     99.10 
zand      99.08
argus     99.05
just looking for a bit of value ....misterioc and zand are  closely matched in this .  argus is fav but on paper misterioc should  reverse  form at these  weights ....at twice the price of the fav he looks fantastic ew value  .....zand is more  of a speculative bet ...has been running well on the a.w so no guarntee he will hold form on turf especially soft but zand has run well on turf and is very nicely weighted in this so definate chances if acting and johnston no mug especially in races of this type .....both good value bets in big race 
misterioc    2 pts ew 12/1 lads 
zand  2 pts ew 16/1 lads 
 

150 donc 
bigtime   98.98
withernsea   98.94
adams ale    98.91
predominance  98.86
 
interesting big hcap .predominance is fav ...lightly raced and possible improver but in a 22 runner race a 4/1 quote looks dire value  .... adams ale is quoted at 25/1 but hes best at 5f ....can stay 6f but this 7f is a huge question so no value even at big price .....bigtime and withernsea have good recent form ....have both recorded good speed ratings and look ready to run well ....prices of 12/1 and 14/1 are just what u want in such an open race ...nice value bets 
bigtime   2 pts ew  12/1 p.p
withernsea  2 pts ew 14/1 wh 

nice one richard !
good start to the winter season.......

actually ..I have noticed that the last trainer they interview just before the race off tends yo do really well in the race ....dont know if its coincidence or whether they know where moneys going and interview that specific trainer ...but ive lost count of times that last trainer has gone on to win or place in following big race .    very unusual but it happens a lot 

Best of luck with your selections Richard.
 
Copied and pasted.
 
5.25 - Newmarket:
Oakley Girl. 2 pts win. Available at 7/1.
Imshivalla. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.
The only non-Juvenile race on the Newmarket card is this Fillies handicap over a mile. The lightly raced three year old Zaaneh is open to plenty of improvement but preference is for Oakley Girl and Imshivalla. Oakley Girl won on her fourth start when she was stepped up in trip to ten furlongs on the A/W at Lingfield in August. Her two outings in handicap company since have seen her not beaten far, the last of them coming over an extended mile at Epsom. Both came on G/S ground so the overnight easing in conditions here will suit and she gets in here off bottom weight. She has a progressive profile and the booking of David Probert, who has a 20% strike rate for the yard in recent seasons, takes the eye. A strong pace could bring her stamina into play late on.  Imshivalla let us down last time out at York but she wasn't beaten far in a better race. She has been in good form since the Summer and her races prior to York had suggested she was still finding a bit of improvement. She has a good strike rate and, although four pounds above her highest winning mark, she may not be done for the season just yet. Her jockey arrives with just the two Richard Fahey booked rides and has to wait around for three hours for the privilege of riding this one.       
 

345 asc balmoral hcap 
empire storm   99.56
halation      99.52
mussadas      99.52
sacrificial      99.47
bronze angel   99.47 
very tricky hcap to finish the day ..well known for being a minefield ...sacrificial is fav here at around 7/1 so sets the standard but currently the three horses above him are 14/1    24.0 ...26.0 ....so rather than fart about trying to separate ...in such an open race ill have all three run at very good value odds 
 
mussadas    2 pts win  14/1willh
halation  2 pts win 24.0 betfair
empirestorm  2 pts win 26.0 betfair

345 newm 
goathland  98.76
not never    98.69
mustard    98.68
wonder laish 98.65 
 
another tough race but peter chappal hyam won this last year and saddles the top rated goathland here ..priced at 16/1 he looks an easy ew bet ..   
goathland 2 pts ew 16/1 lads

anything can and probably will happen in this race ....golden horns the best horse and could just overcome the draw like treve did .......treve might do it again and make it three ( somebodies got to do it sooner or later ...so why not ..) ....new bay recorded a decent time last time and prix neil runners do really well in arc so big danger ...  with most bookies goin 4 places ....I think theres a big price place up for grabs .....so anything possible .....fantastic race though compared to the average ...so many possibles to play out . will be interestin to watch what happens ...and good luck whatever camp your in ....

thats exactly how I feel about him .....postponed is rated 127 on timeform and id put eagle top on the same ...maybe 126 .......last years arc was won in 129 ....so if you forgive the recent flop which tbh was on dire heavy ground and totally unsuitable then I agree a performance around 127 could see at least place .....50/1 is just too big and is probably the only value bet left in the race 

thats exactly how I feel about him .....postponed is rated 127 on timeform and id put eagle top on the same ...maybe 126 .......last years arc was won in 129 ....so if you forgive the recent flop which tbh was on dire heavy ground and totally unsuitable then I agree a performance around 127 could see at least place .....50/1 is just too big and is probably the only value bet left in the race 

Well done richard

yeah ....be good to take this race apart and find a decent bet .....here are some interesting stats .....
only 2 winners out of last 12 were drawn higher than nine (treve being one of those) ...... (so 80% of winners are drawn 9 or lower )  ...... good starting point 
 
15 of last 27 arc winners were actually drawn 2  4   6  or  7 ....thats 55% !!.....suggesting very strongly theres a draw bias in the arc ....
 
14 of last 28  arcs won by lightly raced .up and coming french horse  ... .younger horses dominate as they are better weighted under the rules ..   
 
food for thought ...... ill run the race through the computer when I get chance and see if theres anything in the low draws lurking 
 
but would be  interesting to hear peoples thoughts on race 
 
dont know draw yet but obviuosly treve is on everyone lips ..... initial speed ratings and stats suggest ...new bay is the one possibly ....arc is normally won by horse speed rated around 102 ... .and new bay achieved that on the bit last time out and recieves all 3 yr old allowances in big race  .. if allocated draw 2 4 6 7 ...?      ....id say serious danger to treve ....

Give us the facts & Stats ...................Who Wins ?
 

not very often all the pieces fall into place like that ......theyve gotta do it on the day ....nice when they do .....on to the next one !!

Great stuff Richard, top work as always!! Happy enough to nab a place at 28/1.

Brilliant thanks a lot Richard.

Cracking call Richard, well done mate!!

Trends for anyone interested...
Winners have been aged three (3), four (3), five (2) and six. Winners have carried between 8-7 and 9-9 with six between 8-7 and 8-12. Winners have been rated between 87 and 104 with eight between 95 and 104. Winners have been priced between 5/1 and 40/1 with eight returned at 16/1 or shorter and three sent off favourite. Nine winners finished in the first five on their preceding start; only one finished first. Nine winners had run since the beginning of August. Nine winners had won a race during the current season. All the winners had won or been placed in a Class 2 handicap or better. Six winners had either won or been placed on either the July Course or the Rowley Mile Course. Six winners had had 14 or fewer career starts whilst four had raced between 21 and 26 times. Seven winners have been drawn 11 or higher.

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