Jimmy2shoes Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Give us the facts & Stats ...................Who Wins ? robertob and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 (edited) yeah ....be good to take this race apart and find a decent bet .....here are some interesting stats .....only 2 winners out of last 12 were drawn higher than nine (treve being one of those) ...... (so 80% of winners are drawn 9 or lower ) ...... good starting point 15 of last 27 arc winners were actually drawn 2 4 6 or 7 ....thats 55% !!.....suggesting very strongly theres a draw bias in the arc .... 14 of last 28 arcs won by lightly raced .up and coming french horse ... .younger horses dominate as they are better weighted under the rules .. food for thought ...... ill run the race through the computer when I get chance and see if theres anything in the low draws lurking but would be interesting to hear peoples thoughts on race dont know draw yet but obviuosly treve is on everyone lips ..... initial speed ratings and stats suggest ...new bay is the one possibly ....arc is normally won by horse speed rated around 102 ... .and new bay achieved that on the bit last time out and recieves all 3 yr old allowances in big race .. if allocated draw 2 4 6 7 ...? ....id say serious danger to treve .... Edited September 28, 2015 by richard-westwood Jimmy2shoes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 the last 4 editions have been won by fillies........and 5 of the last 7 to include ZarkavaLooking at the records fillies won it 5 years running in the late 70s and early 80s then only 1 filly won in the next 25 years until Zarkava..........now it's 5 from the last 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Interesting reading. Does anyone know what the draw is? Treve currently best priced at evens with PaddyPower but just thinking if she's drawn high then might be able to squeeze a bit more value out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I would imagine draw will be made around weds thurs ...... that should shed a bit more light ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 The going looks key to this race too along with a few other strange twists and turns, anything with SOFT in it Treve would be very hard to beat, and if it showed up soft John Gosden wouldn't even send Golden Horn.I take it Frankie would ride Golden Horn, he missed the ride on Treve last year because he broke his right ankle, now this year he's riding but just not Treve, secretly deep down inside..............Would he swap ?Last year Treve had many problems leading up to the main event then hoodwinked most of us and bolted up, BUT her prep this year has been faultless and many will think all she need do is turn up.Never that easy, some puzzle, some race.Could all be in one thing..........................The Going! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 one of the biggest factors for me is age ....31 of last 40 runnings of the arc have been won by age 3 or 4 ......thats a huge stat in favour of up and coming improving types .......there have only been 8 ...5yrolds+ winners in 70 years !!.....thats a huge stat against treve .......personally ill be taking treve on based on that stat alone ....makes sense really as a 3 yr old filly would carry 8-7 whereas a 5 yr old colt 9-5 .......common sense really Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 one of the biggest factors for me is age ....31 of last 40 runnings of the arc have been won by age 3 or 4 ......thats a huge stat in favour of up and coming improving types .......there have only been 8 ...5yrolds+ winners in 70 years !!.....thats a huge stat against treve .......personally ill be taking treve on based on that stat alone ....makes sense really as a 3 yr old filly would carry 8-7 whereas a 5 yr old colt 9-5 .......common sense really Just playing devils advocate Richard, how many 5 year olds have run in the Arc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just playing devils advocate Richard, how many 5 year olds have run in the Arc?csnt find stats for that ..lol ...im still lookin ........id imagine a few ....last 6 yr old to win was 1947 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) don't think stats mean a great deal as treve looks a bit of a freak and most top racehorses retired at 3 or 4 trying to think of 5 yr olds who competed only one I can think of is that one of mick channon's who was placed twice when a big outsider youmzain? Edited September 29, 2015 by waynecoyne arsenalfh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) all of the last the last 10 winners were within 9lbs of the top rpr .. so this year that would shortlist .......golden horn 142 treve 138jack hobbs 135 free eagle 133flintshire 133 if you look from a purely statistical view .. golden horn is top rated on racing post figs ......golden horn is 3 ....perfect winning age .....and recieves 5 lbs from treve ..... on paper it looks pretty cut and dry ..... there is a big form and statistical bias towards golden horn winning the arc this year ...if it runs of course Edited September 29, 2015 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 but the ground is key then Richard-golden horn wants top of the ground and its likely to be good to soft , worse if a deluge on saturdayjack hobbs being aimed at champion unless it pisses down and even then treve likes soft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 to add to this the draw is important- I think it is drawn on Friday around middaybut treve won drawn wide as a 3 yr old and there may be fewer runners than normalso this could reduce the bias-I would have new bay as the only danger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 but the ground is key then Richard-golden horn wants top of the ground and its likely to be good to soft , worse if a deluge on saturdayjack hobbs being aimed at champion unless it pisses down and even then treve likes softmore often than not its gd/sft .....but to be fair golden horn handled genuine gd sft at leopardstown so I dont think its a problem ....I dont think he would want it soft ....but I think gd sft would be fine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) French horse, French Trainer, French Track and aiming for the history books.The french will have the track primed for Treve, Price is shocking with not a single bookmaker taking any chances, they really have circled up the wagons.4/5 and 8/11 with Stan James is just BONKERS MENTAL!!! Edited September 29, 2015 by Jimmy2shoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) A good read.http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/sep/28/dry-forecast-plunge-golden-horn-prix-de-larc-de-triomphe http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/fighting-talk-from-golden-horn-camp-before-treve-clash/1962804/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews Edited September 29, 2015 by Jimmy2shoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think in conclusion we wait for the day and draw if golden horn were to win it would be unusual as not many brit horses take in the arc after running in all the top gb races (or campaigned at all golden horn withdrawn from king George because of sticky ground)sea the stars won it as did dancing brave and mtoto who came second Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 because its quite close this year....every factor is going to count more .....if ground is good will go more in golden horns favour ....if its soft ..treve and new bays favour .....every pound this year will count ......on paper theres 10lb (5 lengths covering the top 6 horses) .....and 3 lb (between top 2) ....so any advantage is going to be definitive ..........golden horn already has an advantage in that treve has to give him a 5 lb head start ......if by some chance golden horn drawn low and treve high .....could be game over ......but likewise ....treve low ...and golden horn high would offset the weight allowance so everything is going to count more this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 thanks Jimmy -that evoked a few memories-had montjeu as the last leg of a 4 timer- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The stand out winners during my time watching.......which would be from around the early 80sDancing BraveSuave DancerLammtaraZarkavaSea The StarsTreve I missed 1996 to 2007 as I lost interest for a while Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 (edited) golden horn has been supplemented at a cost of 110,000 euros .. . the clash is on ...confirmed runner .......I think price will begin to tumble now Edited October 1, 2015 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 draw 1 manatee 2 shahah 3 eagle top 4 erupt 5 new bay 6 frine 7 siljans saga 8 treve 9 tapestry 10 prince gibraltar 11flintshire 12 free eagle 13 dolniya 14 golden horn15 found16 melegreas 17 silverware 18 spiritjim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 first impressions ...draw hasnt been kind to golden horn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 well ...I have to say this years arc was looking more of a watch race ......all the value seems to have gone with treve evs ....golden horn 4/1 but now drawn wide .....new bay a potential blot ? ...around 5/1 .....everythings just lookin a bit "messy" and poor value ... .but after the draw ive finally found a nice value bet .......55% of the arc winners in recent times were drawn lower than 7 .... thats indisputable ......top that with 3 and 4 yr olds dominate .....and that suggests new bay and eagle top come into the reckoning .. . ..new bays chances are obvious .....but for me eagle top is the forgotten horse ......his performance against postponed was top draw and the speed rating that day is 104 ......thats good enough to make him competitive in any arc ......4 yr old .....and drawn nicely in stall 3 .......ran poor lto but a repeat of the postponed run would give him a definate shout .....price ??.....50/1 !!!!!it may be a poor bet ....treve may run away .....golden horn might outrun his draw .....ill play the stats and hope some sort of miracle happens ....id be happy with a place tbh .....eagle top 5 pts ew 50/1 . bet vic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 As a horse racing fan and lover, it would be amazing to see Treve win this race and good luck to her if she does! But winning three Arc's in a row is unheard of and backing her at such short odds isn't for me here! I will be having an each-way bet on the Andre Fabre trained New Bay who has everything in his favour, ground, draw and comes here in blistering form! Back New Bay ~ 2 Points E/W @ 5/1 Paddy Power ~ 1/5, 3 Places Full Preview @ https://www.punterslounge.com/arc-de-triomphe-preview--tips-andre-fabre-can-land-his-8th-arc-with-new-bay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 @richard-westwoodEagle Top is actually one who caught my eye. If you look at his form there are plenty of disappointing efforts but he looked exceptional at Royal Ascot last year and very good in the King George. And the key to those performances was pace. The two times he has had a solid pace to run at he's looked a real Group 1 horse.He'll get a good pace on Sunday with Shahah and Manatee looking to make it a stiff test and Gosden has always maintained he's better on quick ground so conditions will be ideal. With a nice draw I could see him hitting the frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 @richard-westwoodEagle Top is actually one who caught my eye. If you look at his form there are plenty of disappointing efforts but he looked exceptional at Royal Ascot last year and very good in the King George. And the key to those performances was pace. The two times he has had a solid pace to run at he's looked a real Group 1 horse.He'll get a good pace on Sunday with Shahah and Manatee looking to make it a stiff test and Gosden has always maintained he's better on quick ground so conditions will be ideal. With a nice draw I could see him hitting the frame.thats exactly how I feel about him .....postponed is rated 127 on timeform and id put eagle top on the same ...maybe 126 .......last years arc was won in 129 ....so if you forgive the recent flop which tbh was on dire heavy ground and totally unsuitable then I agree a performance around 127 could see at least place .....50/1 is just too big and is probably the only value bet left in the race arsenalfh and DanV89 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I like New Bay as well but Treve is still the one to beat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 @richard-westwoodAny thoughts on Erupt?Looks a little overpriced on what he has achieved, 4th behind New Bay last time when the going may have been against him and four wins including a G1 prior to that. Has draw (4), distance, class and likely going today, so could be in the thick of it. A line through Ampere (penultimate race) may suggest he still has something to find with New Bay though.My shortlist is -Treve*Golden HornNew Bay ***Erupt ** But concentrating on New Bay and Erupt here and going against the other two, as Treve has the 'age' factor against her and Golden Horn has a potentially difficult draw to overcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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