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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ''2015''


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yeah ....be good to take this race apart and find a decent bet .....here are some interesting stats .....

only 2 winners out of last 12 were drawn higher than nine (treve being one of those) ...... (so 80% of winners are drawn 9 or lower )  ...... good starting point 

 

15 of last 27 arc winners were actually drawn 2  4   6  or  7 ....thats 55% !!.....suggesting very strongly theres a draw bias in the arc ....

 

14 of last 28  arcs won by lightly raced .up and coming french horse  ... .younger horses dominate as they are better weighted under the rules ..   

 

food for thought ...... ill run the race through the computer when I get chance and see if theres anything in the low draws lurking 

 

but would be  interesting to hear peoples thoughts on race 

 

dont know draw yet but obviuosly treve is on everyone lips ..... initial speed ratings and stats suggest ...new bay is the one possibly ....arc is normally won by horse speed rated around 102 ... .and new bay achieved that on the bit last time out and recieves all 3 yr old allowances in big race  .. if allocated draw 2 4 6 7 ...?      ....id say serious danger to treve ....

Edited by richard-westwood
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The going looks key to this race too along with a few other strange twists and turns, anything with SOFT in it Treve would be very hard to beat, and if it showed up soft John Gosden wouldn't even send Golden Horn.

I take it Frankie would ride Golden Horn, he missed the ride on Treve last year because he broke his right ankle, now this year he's riding but just not Treve, secretly deep down inside..............Would he swap ?

Last year Treve had many problems leading up to the main event then hoodwinked most of us and bolted up, BUT her prep this year has been faultless and many will think all she need do is turn up.

Never that easy, some puzzle, some race.

Could all be in one thing..........................The Going!

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one of the biggest factors for me is age ....31 of last 40 runnings of the arc have been won by age 3 or 4 ......thats a huge stat in favour of up and coming improving types .......there have only been 8 ...5yrolds+ winners in 70 years !!.....thats a huge stat against treve .......personally ill be taking treve on based on that stat alone ....makes sense really as a 3 yr old filly would carry 8-7 whereas a 5 yr old colt 9-5 .......common sense really 

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one of the biggest factors for me is age ....31 of last 40 runnings of the arc have been won by age 3 or 4 ......thats a huge stat in favour of up and coming improving types .......there have only been 8 ...5yrolds+ winners in 70 years !!.....thats a huge stat against treve .......personally ill be taking treve on based on that stat alone ....makes sense really as a 3 yr old filly would carry 8-7 whereas a 5 yr old colt 9-5 .......common sense really 

Just playing devils advocate Richard, how many 5 year olds have run in the Arc?

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all of the last the last 10 winners were within 9lbs of the top rpr ..   so this year that would shortlist .......

golden horn  142 

treve      138

jack hobbs   135 

free eagle     133

flintshire     133 

 

if you look from a purely statistical view ..     golden horn is top rated on racing post figs ......golden horn is 3 ....perfect winning age .....and recieves 5 lbs from treve ..... on paper it looks pretty cut and dry ..... there is a big form and statistical bias towards golden horn winning the arc this year ...if it runs of course 

Edited by richard-westwood
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but the ground is key then Richard-golden horn wants top of the ground and its likely to be good to soft , worse if a deluge on saturday

jack hobbs being aimed at champion unless it pisses down and even then treve likes soft

more often than not its gd/sft .....but to be fair golden horn handled genuine gd sft at leopardstown so I dont think its a problem ....I dont think he would want it soft ....but I think gd sft would be fine 

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French horse, French Trainer, French Track and aiming for the history books.

The french will have the track primed for Treve,  Price is shocking with not a single bookmaker taking any chances, they really have circled up the wagons.

4/5 and 8/11 with Stan James is just BONKERS MENTAL!!! 

 

Edited by Jimmy2shoes
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I think in conclusion we wait for the day and draw if golden horn were to win it would be unusual as not many brit horses take in the arc after running in all the top gb races (or campaigned at all golden horn withdrawn from king George because of sticky ground)

sea the stars won it as did dancing brave and mtoto who came second

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because its quite close this year....every factor is going to count more .....if ground is good will go more in golden horns favour ....if its soft ..treve and new bays favour .....every pound this year will count ......on paper theres 10lb (5 lengths covering the top 6 horses) .....and 3 lb (between top 2) ....so any advantage is going to be definitive ..........golden horn already has an advantage in that treve has to give him a 5 lb head start ......if by some chance golden horn drawn low and treve high .....could be game over ......but likewise ....treve low ...and golden horn high would offset the weight allowance so everything is going to count more this year 

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well ...I have to say this years arc was looking more of a watch race ......all the value seems to have gone with treve evs ....golden horn 4/1 but now drawn wide .....new bay a potential blot ? ...around 5/1 .....everythings just lookin a bit "messy" and poor value ... .but after the draw ive finally found a nice value bet .......55% of the arc winners in recent times were drawn lower than 7 ....   thats indisputable ......top that with 3 and 4 yr olds dominate .....and that suggests new bay and eagle top come into the reckoning ..  . ..new bays chances are obvious .....but for me eagle top is the forgotten horse ......his performance against postponed was top draw and the speed rating that day is 104 ......thats good enough to make him competitive in any arc ......4 yr old .....and drawn nicely in stall 3 .......ran poor lto but a repeat of the postponed run would give him a definate shout .....price ??.....50/1 !!!!!

it may be a poor bet ....treve may run away .....golden horn might outrun his draw .....ill play the stats and hope some sort of miracle happens ....id be happy with a place tbh .....

eagle top 5 pts ew 50/1 .  bet vic 

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As a horse racing fan and lover, it would be amazing to see Treve win this race and good luck to her if she does! But winning three Arc's in a row is unheard of and backing her at such short odds isn't for me here! I will be having an each-way bet on the Andre Fabre trained New Bay who has everything in his favour, ground, draw and comes here in blistering form!

 

Back New Bay ~ 2 Points E/W @ 5/1 Paddy Power ~ 1/5, 3 Places

 

Full Preview @ https://www.punterslounge.com/arc-de-triomphe-preview--tips-andre-fabre-can-land-his-8th-arc-with-new-bay

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@richard-westwood

Eagle Top is actually one who caught my eye. If you look at his form there are plenty of disappointing efforts but he looked exceptional at Royal Ascot last year and very good in the King George. And the key to those performances was pace. The two times he has had a solid pace to run at he's looked a real Group 1 horse.

He'll get a good pace on Sunday with Shahah and Manatee looking to make it a stiff test and Gosden has always maintained he's better on quick ground so conditions will be ideal. With a nice draw I could see him hitting the frame.

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@richard-westwood

Eagle Top is actually one who caught my eye. If you look at his form there are plenty of disappointing efforts but he looked exceptional at Royal Ascot last year and very good in the King George. And the key to those performances was pace. The two times he has had a solid pace to run at he's looked a real Group 1 horse.

He'll get a good pace on Sunday with Shahah and Manatee looking to make it a stiff test and Gosden has always maintained he's better on quick ground so conditions will be ideal. With a nice draw I could see him hitting the frame.

thats exactly how I feel about him .....postponed is rated 127 on timeform and id put eagle top on the same ...maybe 126 .......last years arc was won in 129 ....so if you forgive the recent flop which tbh was on dire heavy ground and totally unsuitable then I agree a performance around 127 could see at least place .....50/1 is just too big and is probably the only value bet left in the race 

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@richard-westwood

Any thoughts on Erupt?

Looks a little overpriced on what he has achieved, 4th behind New Bay last time when the going may have been against him and four wins including a G1 prior to that. Has draw (4), distance, class and likely going today, so could be in the thick of it. A line through Ampere (penultimate race) may suggest he still has something to find with New Bay though.

My shortlist is -

Treve*

Golden Horn

New Bay ***

Erupt **

 

But concentrating on New Bay and Erupt here and going against the other two, as Treve has the 'age' factor against her and Golden Horn has a potentially difficult draw to overcome.

 

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