richard-westwood

right ......lets see if we narrow this down .....horses  25 to 30 are currently not in race  reserves so omitted     leaving 24 runners 
of those 24   ....12-14 are ranked poor  virtually halving the field !!! to 10 decent horses 
14/14 winners had finished in top 2 on one of last 2 runs ...that rules out 22 and 23 ....leaving 
1  2  3 7  10  14  15 17 
last 8 winners were 5 or 6 yr olds ...theres been a 7 yr old  ...last one over 7 was 2004 so cheltenian 1  is omitted leaving 7 
2  3 7 10 14 15 17 
the only horses to carry more than 11-2 to victory had won a hcap posting an rpr of 150 + lto  2 and 7 fail 3 is war sound and he rated 149 lto so technically fails but qualifys as danger 
leaving 4 horses  10 14 15 17 
currently ratings are as follows     
forest bihan        448  
sternrubin      441 
mad jack mitton   434  
john constable    432  
well thats a fab set of results as ive already backed sternrubin and john constable !!!!............only surprise is this top rated whos currently 25/1!!...with bet365 .......i mean at first glance he looks out of it having only placed at class 3 !!!...but in this race that doesnt matter as lightly raced low rated horses have done well in the past but i read yesterday that brian ellison said that this horse forest bihan is the best horse he has ever fielded for the betfair hurdle and he expects him in time to go on to big things ......me thinks an addition to the team is needed ..... 5 pts win forest bihan 25/1 bet365 .......done ...lol
technically war sound only failed by 1 pt so isnt that bad and has chances but on balance of trends hes too high in weights but can be left in if you prefer ....its just a guide to value really 
http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/40798/willie-mullins-dominates-betfair-hurdle-contenders
 

id like to try something diff today .......call it a lesson in hcapping ....ive had a few ideas for a while and would like to share them on here and you can 
criticise and pick holes to your hearts content but im hoping in doing so maybe we can come up with a handicapping formula that can be used to win us a few quid ....
ill start the ball rolling and lets see how it progresses .....
firstly you want to work out what the horse is currently doing ......every horse has a current "number " over it which varies but each horse has a current ability number and i like to establish this as follows ......lets take a race today 245 southwell and pick it apart 
horse 1    indira    off rated 70 has finished 3 lengths down both last 2 races so  ill rate him as  current abilty    64 
horse 2   with hindsight  also  finished 3 lengths down off 70 so lets give him  also  64 
horse 3  dark diamond  won well off 60 was raised to 68 finished no where so ill rate him as good at 60
horse 4   weald of kent  won easily off 64   raised to 70  based on that last run youd have to say his ability is around 70
horse 5  thimaar   6 lengths down off 72  rate him around the 60
horses 6 and 7 are very poor so for todays test we will omit them .....
now we have an ability rough rating ...................now we want to know what the horse might be capable of under todays conditions ....there are numerous methods for this but lets for arguments and ease sake combine the rp and speed ratings .......lots of work has gone into them so may as well use 
horse 1     64   137     201
horse 2  64    147   211
horse 3   60   137   197
horse 4  70   125      195 
horse 5   60   130     190
 
so weve ruled out horses 6 and 7 .....looking at thr ratings it seems logical to rule out horse 5 as hes done nothing off this mark and isnt well weighted that leaves 4 
weald of kent is fav and showed vastly superior form over cd last time but before that had shown nothing off this mark ......could be that penny has finally dropped and good course form a def plus but time for that race lto was poor suggesting it was nothing special so im going to take him on today 
horse 3 dark diamond  won well off 61 but ran appalling off 68 suggesting the hcapper nailed him so off 67 today he looks very weak from a betting view 
so overall the two to focus on look to be the top two horses number 1 and number two 
number 2 with hindsight has the highest figure on 211 overall probably due to fact he has course form too ......looks a few lbs high but against weak opposition and with course form he looks dangerous .......number 1 indira has been running pretty consistently of late running a 64 lto but has been as high as 69 off this mark ...crucially is ridden by a 5lb claimer today so offically runs of 65 today and thats a big advantage but no course form only kempton and wolv 
quick look at betting has horse 4 as 5/2 fav .....if you believe that last run then yes he looks fairly strong today ......but weak time and poor form in past suggest lots more needed today 
horses 1 and 2 are avilable at 4/1 and 10/1 !!!.........so lets roll the dice and see what happens 
indira  2 pts win  10/1  stj
with hindsight  2 pts win 4/1 paddyp
 

ran the race back through at current weights .....charmix is a non runner but sternrubin is looking a likely starter now .....current ratings show 
sterrubin     99.36
john constable    99.33
war sound    99.27
 
so its looking very likely that the outcome of this race could hinge on the race that sternrubin last ran ....he beat john constable by 4 lengths but that one has a huge weight pull this time and has to have a good chance of reversing form .....couple that with last 10 winners having finished top 2 recently and the fact that they have a distinct class advantage in grd 3 and they look very good bets ......18.0 available on john constable on betfair .....thats a fab price ......ill go extra 5 pts on sterrubin at 12/1   and 10 ts  on john constable for a big payout at 18.0
sterrubin 5 pts win 12/1 generally  (already backed 5 pts at 14/1)
10 pts win john constable 18.0 betfair 

annililated them .....but it was always on the cards off a weight like that

Doncaster's a tricky one today. I quite like Albatros De Guye at 22/1 with bet365 in the 12.50 , I see those odds coming down quite a bit. 

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Verdict:
A very interesting contest and I think we have a good standard this year. We might even see the trends being bucked and a horse rated over 140 landing the valuable prize. My main fancy is Dolatulo for Warren Greatrex. He’s had a quiet time of it of late but you can’t argue with the form of this 9yo who ran a cracker at Aintree last time out in the Becher Chase. He should get his ground and will jump round here no trouble.
Ziga Boy is the one for the trend spotters off 132 but my second pick is the novice Le Mercurey who is still in his first season as a chaser. I think he will improve for the trip and could be very well handicapped on 142.
 
Selections; Dolatulo 14/1 William Hill  &  Le Mercurey 12/1 Ladbrokes
Past Winners;

Nice one ...it wasnt showing on my results .....on heavy ground im over the moon with any return seriously 

Well done Richard mate
Happy with my EW bet for a small profit too

Hope that wasn't a sore one richard, i have plenty spare burns cream from last year if you need any mate ok.

I thought you were right but hes been left in at final stage and only 12 runners left and hes one of them so looking promising now 

Snap, posted this a few days ago, how weird.
Classic Chase Betting: Heavy ground specialists needed for Warwick on Saturday 
 
Verdict:
Plenty of horses with a chance on their best form but I think its safe to go with those proven in the ground and can jump well. I like Foxbridge for obvious reasons, he has won three races in ground like this and is in good nick at the moment and will have a nice low weight to carry.
Of those at the other end of the handicap I like Alan Kings Sego Success. He looks an improved horse and actually welcomed a return to soft ground at Doncaster last time out. He will get his conditions here for sure.
 
Foxbridge EW 16/1 Ladbrokes
Sego Success EW 10/1 Betfred

coral ie chase
folsom blue   99.27
heathfield    99.25
ballycasey    99.21
folsom blue would be an interesting entry if they come here but looks more likely to run Saturday at the moment so ill keep an eye on that one for moment
heathfield looks an interesting contender for this ...looks to have all the the necessary form and ability and is coming to peak form now so the 16/1 looks very
interesting and good value ......ballycasey is also coming into form and is a decent horse on a good day ..holds n entry in gold cup and also entered for thystes chase next week so another to watch if confirmed for this .....at the moment an ew bet on heathfield looks best option for time being
heathfield   5 pts ew 16/1 b365
other 2 ....2 pt wins if they are confirmed

Possible race for doubling up ....some nice races this weekend but everythings a bit of a mess because all grounds ridibg heavy and snow forecast .   Ive passed this through the computer 
Coral ie hurdle sunday 
Good as gold   99.32
Ice cold soul   99.26
Cliff house   99.24
 
Very very difficult race ..no degree of confidence to bet in this as usually 24 +runners go to post .....but saying that im wondering if anyone has any thoughts on this good as gold ?? ..  at first glance he wouldnt seem like a good candidate ...especially for a double up attempt ....but he did win lto and thats a plus ...and closer inspection of that win shows he was rated 114 ...and pipped a 120 horse that day ..  pair were 6 lengths clear of third (rated 107 ....6 lengths =12 lbs =119 )...so the sums seem to hold up suggesting this good as gold could be a 119 horse     the mark he runs off in this race  .      Couple that with the fact hes top rated and his current quote of .. 25/1???.   Suddenly looks very interesting indeed ? .. . Will keep an eye on market and weather 

This game can be sexy as feck at times 

Fancy S.C too richard
Good Luck 

Well done again Richard!! Will be hoping for more of the same tomorrow 

Baron alco bravely lasts home  ....cracker ....wetherby called off ....other one was second ....nice day 35 pts profit overall .  .....actually its 40 pts cos just realised churchfield was non runner too 

Coto only 5th but Capelita was impressive winning 6L on the bridle. Another fantastic looking purchase by Appleby and connections.

South 230 
Cross fire  98.44
Coto   98.41
Best trip 98.35 
 
Trappy race ..cross fire has the best form overall and conditions to suit ....im slightly surprised to see him fav but just shows bookies fear him too ...coto has decent ew chances and looks the most likely to benefit should the fav fail to fire ....
Cross fire  3 pts win 7/2 pp
Coto  1 pts win 7/1 bet365

The computer condenses speed ratings class and makes a hcap up .....then converts the combined rating to a figure as close to a 100 as it can .....although the figures seem close about .5 equates to about 2lbs or a length so in the above vullage vic was being equated as 1 length superior to tenor nivernais even though the ratings look close .... it just helps having them closer ......this race was particuly close though ...five of the top rated finished first seven home ....thats how close it was ..!!
In the above race the hcap and speed ratings were average to good for village vic but todays weight meant he could potentially improve somewhere between 13 -21 lbs and he actually improved around 17 lbs by the looks of it ..so smack in the middle .....his ratings were based on carrying in the 11st plus catergory and he was carrying 10 st so he wss dropping around somethin like 17 lbs .....even though he was effectively up 7 lbs in hcap the horse itself was just thinking feck me I feel light today .....??....the computer will spot that I probably wouldnt ..lol

15 pts carried over from earlier  in week ... ill top it up to 20 pts and try for a double up on top 3 rated ...big open race but worth a shot 
Annacotty  8 pts win 9.5 betfair
Village vic 6.5 pts win 10/1 corals
Tenor nivernais 5.5 pts win 12/1 willh
 

Excellent aim wins nicely ...and jockey her first win ....nicely done 

That made for comfortable watching. Cheers and well done Richard. 

Good call ...decent horse hes done well 

Must admit i like Tea For Two Richard, definitely a big handicap in him this season i reckon.
Trainer won it with Diamond Harry and Aubusson in the past.
Will have a proper look tomorrow.
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