richard-westwood

Yes I e managed to get the epic boost 66/1 ...cmon you beauty 🤩 

I think for me .....ghostwriter has always been up there ....I can see him placing and being a better horse in the derby later on .....and haatem is also looking overpriced at 33/1..,.so I'm very happy to have 5pt Ew on both ....just a shame only 3 places 

Henry Longfellow won’t run I believe. 

Totals adjusted column has averages for the omissions In the MCLARK column (Henry Longfellow) and the Stopwatch column (Night Raider & Notable speech) one could add these on in the respective columns if you don't like the omissions.
The omissions are as follows
Henry Longfellow    87 MCLARK (MR)
Night Raider             67 Stopwatch (SR)
Notable Speech       67 Stopwatch (SR)
@harry_rag

Rather than start another thread I've had time to rate another Newmarket race on the card ...the will hill extra place hcap 1.45 .....not sure how many will actually run ... Currently 24 runners .....I doubt no where near that will run but after rating it .....3 horses clear of rest 
Rohaan.   8.9 12/1 ( bet 365 go 7/1!!)
Aberrama gold. 8.6 14/1 
First folio. 8.5 20/1 
Generous prices currently on offer .....there's a risk that some horses may drop out but I'll risk 5pt on all 3 as come Saturday if they run the prices could look huge 

Rather than start another thread I've had time to rate another Newmarket race on the card ...the will hill extra place hcap 1.45 .....not sure how many will actually run ... Currently 24 runners .....I doubt no where near that will run but after rating it .....3 horses clear of rest 
Rohaan.   8.9 12/1 ( bet 365 go 7/1!!)
Aberrama gold. 8.6 14/1 
First folio. 8.5 20/1 
Generous prices currently on offer .....there's a risk that some horses may drop out but I'll risk 5pt on all 3 as come Saturday if they run the prices could look huge 

City of Troy 9.2 4/6 
Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 
Haatem  8.8 25/1 
Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 
Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 
Alyannabi    8.2 
River tiber 8.2 
Task force 8.2 
Diego valzquez. 7.8 
Night raider 7.7 
Notable speech 7.5 
Ten bob tony  7.5 
Inisherin. 7.5 
Iberian  7.4 
 

City of Troy 9.2 4/6 
Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 
Haatem  8.8 25/1 
Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 
Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 
Alyannabi    8.2 
River tiber 8.2 
Task force 8.2 
Diego valzquez. 7.8 
Night raider 7.7 
Notable speech 7.5 
Ten bob tony  7.5 
Inisherin. 7.5 
Iberian  7.4 
 

1000 guineas
Fallen angel.  8.9 11/4 
Ylang ylang 8.6 7/2 
Porta fortuna.  8.3 25/1 
Kitty rose.  8.1 33/1 
A bit more straightforward this one ......top 2 in betting look strong and both have won at Newmarket ....porta fortuna looks an interesting horse were she to run and the ground came up on the quick side ....was last seen in breeders cup juvenile where she finished 2nd ....that's classy form but has drifted of late so that may indicate will drop out but could be the value bet if on the quick side ...the quicker the more it would suit...has also won at Newmarket  ....
Kitty rose beat content who in turn was behind porta fortuna in the above breeders cup juvenile ....so collateral lines put this one on par with porta fortuna .....so overall top two look strong with Ew value in porta fortuna and kitty rose should they run and ground is on quick side 😁

Thanks Richard. I have taken the decimal point out so they better align with the other ratings i am using, otherwise your ratings wouldn't have the same significance or impact when added.

1000 guineas
Fallen angel.  8.9 11/4 
Ylang ylang 8.6 7/2 
Porta fortuna.  8.3 25/1 
Kitty rose.  8.1 33/1 
A bit more straightforward this one ......top 2 in betting look strong and both have won at Newmarket ....porta fortuna looks an interesting horse were she to run and the ground came up on the quick side ....was last seen in breeders cup juvenile where she finished 2nd ....that's classy form but has drifted of late so that may indicate will drop out but could be the value bet if on the quick side ...the quicker the more it would suit...has also won at Newmarket  ....
Kitty rose beat content who in turn was behind porta fortuna in the above breeders cup juvenile ....so collateral lines put this one on par with porta fortuna .....so overall top two look strong with Ew value in porta fortuna and kitty rose should they run and ground is on quick side 😁

City of Troy 9.2 4/6 
Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 
Haatem  8.8 25/1 
Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 
Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 
Alyannabi    8.2 
River tiber 8.2 
Task force 8.2 
Diego valzquez. 7.8 
Night raider 7.7 
Notable speech 7.5 
Ten bob tony  7.5 
Inisherin. 7.5 
Iberian  7.4 
 

I have DANCING GEMIINI and BALLYMOUNT BOY top rated although both have had poor runs since achieving those top numbers. On the ratings they are 7 lengths clear of City Of Troy.

Saturday is the 2000 guineas with the 1000 following on Sunday .....of course in the 2000 guineas all eyes are on the Aiden o briens ...CITY OF TROY  who is being likened to o briens version of Frankel 
Can't argue that the horse has done everything asked so far in facile manner so it's hard to see how this horse will be beat surely but either way ....when there's a short priced fav there has to be an opportunity for value bets elsewhere so I've asked the computer to rate the current 21 entries with a view to seeing what if anything could be a potential value bet alternative bet ....these are the ratings that came back ....
City of Troy 9.2 4/6 
Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 
Haatem  8.8 25/1 
Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 
Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 
Interesting set of results ....computer has city of Troy clear but he has been downgraded slightly based on unknown on fast ground ....so if there is any chink in this favs armour that's possibly it if the ground goes fast as it currently is .....the horse was soooo effective on soft recording a fast time ...can he be equally effective on fast ????.....not many horses can as it requires a different action but not impossible 
If the rating holds true then Aiden o brien would get the 2nd spot too with Henry Longfellow who has quietly risen through the ranks and has generally been overlooked ....but we all know never to ignore o briens 2nd or 3rd strings as they regularly pop up when you least expect them 
Not much between haatem and ghostwriter on form ...they both look very evenly matched ....you could argue that ghostwriter just edged it with class and going if the ground comes up fast but I wouldn't like to put money on that come the day .....especially if the ground came up good as that would very much swing back in haatems favour 
And finally rosallion .....who is a lot of people's idea of an Ew horse if there is one and I can't fault the horse and he's very much an improving type .....for me there's no value in the horse at all when you compare him to the other better priced horses in the ratings ......all comes down to value really ....
Good form actually at Newmarket is a very good thing to have also ....with the undulations really not suiting many horses ....good form can realistically give you as much as 5lb bonus so based on that ......
City of Troy   won
Henry Longfellow. Unknown 
Haatem. Won 
Ghostwriter. Won 
Rosallion.  Unknown 
That would seem to strengthen the Ew value of haatem and ghostwriter and overall those two look the overall best value in the race .....nothing wrong with Henry Longfellow though .....looks prime for forecasts and tricasts I think 🤔....although it may help later today as I think declarations  have to be in today ?....so some might drop out yet ....Aiden might not even run Henry after all which would help .....just a shame only 3 places on offer for a 20 runner race currently ....that's pretty crap really ...cmon bookies 
Anyone liking any of those ??....or other thoughts ?

1000 guineas
Fallen angel.  8.9 11/4 
Ylang ylang 8.6 7/2 
Porta fortuna.  8.3 25/1 
Kitty rose.  8.1 33/1 
A bit more straightforward this one ......top 2 in betting look strong and both have won at Newmarket ....porta fortuna looks an interesting horse were she to run and the ground came up on the quick side ....was last seen in breeders cup juvenile where she finished 2nd ....that's classy form but has drifted of late so that may indicate will drop out but could be the value bet if on the quick side ...the quicker the more it would suit...has also won at Newmarket  ....
Kitty rose beat content who in turn was behind porta fortuna in the above breeders cup juvenile ....so collateral lines put this one on par with porta fortuna .....so overall top two look strong with Ew value in porta fortuna and kitty rose should they run and ground is on quick side 😁

Saturday is the 2000 guineas with the 1000 following on Sunday .....of course in the 2000 guineas all eyes are on the Aiden o briens ...CITY OF TROY  who is being likened to o briens version of Frankel 
Can't argue that the horse has done everything asked so far in facile manner so it's hard to see how this horse will be beat surely but either way ....when there's a short priced fav there has to be an opportunity for value bets elsewhere so I've asked the computer to rate the current 21 entries with a view to seeing what if anything could be a potential value bet alternative bet ....these are the ratings that came back ....
City of Troy 9.2 4/6 
Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 
Haatem  8.8 25/1 
Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 
Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 
Interesting set of results ....computer has city of Troy clear but he has been downgraded slightly based on unknown on fast ground ....so if there is any chink in this favs armour that's possibly it if the ground goes fast as it currently is .....the horse was soooo effective on soft recording a fast time ...can he be equally effective on fast ????.....not many horses can as it requires a different action but not impossible 
If the rating holds true then Aiden o brien would get the 2nd spot too with Henry Longfellow who has quietly risen through the ranks and has generally been overlooked ....but we all know never to ignore o briens 2nd or 3rd strings as they regularly pop up when you least expect them 
Not much between haatem and ghostwriter on form ...they both look very evenly matched ....you could argue that ghostwriter just edged it with class and going if the ground comes up fast but I wouldn't like to put money on that come the day .....especially if the ground came up good as that would very much swing back in haatems favour 
And finally rosallion .....who is a lot of people's idea of an Ew horse if there is one and I can't fault the horse and he's very much an improving type .....for me there's no value in the horse at all when you compare him to the other better priced horses in the ratings ......all comes down to value really ....
Good form actually at Newmarket is a very good thing to have also ....with the undulations really not suiting many horses ....good form can realistically give you as much as 5lb bonus so based on that ......
City of Troy   won
Henry Longfellow. Unknown 
Haatem. Won 
Ghostwriter. Won 
Rosallion.  Unknown 
That would seem to strengthen the Ew value of haatem and ghostwriter and overall those two look the overall best value in the race .....nothing wrong with Henry Longfellow though .....looks prime for forecasts and tricasts I think 🤔....although it may help later today as I think declarations  have to be in today ?....so some might drop out yet ....Aiden might not even run Henry after all which would help .....just a shame only 3 places on offer for a 20 runner race currently ....that's pretty crap really ...cmon bookies 
Anyone liking any of those ??....or other thoughts ?

1000 guineas
Fallen angel.  8.9 11/4 
Ylang ylang 8.6 7/2 
Porta fortuna.  8.3 25/1 
Kitty rose.  8.1 33/1 
A bit more straightforward this one ......top 2 in betting look strong and both have won at Newmarket ....porta fortuna looks an interesting horse were she to run and the ground came up on the quick side ....was last seen in breeders cup juvenile where she finished 2nd ....that's classy form but has drifted of late so that may indicate will drop out but could be the value bet if on the quick side ...the quicker the more it would suit...has also won at Newmarket  ....
Kitty rose beat content who in turn was behind porta fortuna in the above breeders cup juvenile ....so collateral lines put this one on par with porta fortuna .....so overall top two look strong with Ew value in porta fortuna and kitty rose should they run and ground is on quick side 😁

I love having a go in these big races ....but I hate short priced favs ......I'd rather back a 20/1 shot Ew because the Ew returns can be better than a win bet on the fav and sometimes they actually win !!!.....so it's mainly a value hunt 

Saturday is the 2000 guineas with the 1000 following on Sunday .....of course in the 2000 guineas all eyes are on the Aiden o briens ...CITY OF TROY  who is being likened to o briens version of Frankel 
Can't argue that the horse has done everything asked so far in facile manner so it's hard to see how this horse will be beat surely but either way ....when there's a short priced fav there has to be an opportunity for value bets elsewhere so I've asked the computer to rate the current 21 entries with a view to seeing what if anything could be a potential value bet alternative bet ....these are the ratings that came back ....
City of Troy 9.2 4/6 
Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 
Haatem  8.8 25/1 
Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 
Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 
Interesting set of results ....computer has city of Troy clear but he has been downgraded slightly based on unknown on fast ground ....so if there is any chink in this favs armour that's possibly it if the ground goes fast as it currently is .....the horse was soooo effective on soft recording a fast time ...can he be equally effective on fast ????.....not many horses can as it requires a different action but not impossible 
If the rating holds true then Aiden o brien would get the 2nd spot too with Henry Longfellow who has quietly risen through the ranks and has generally been overlooked ....but we all know never to ignore o briens 2nd or 3rd strings as they regularly pop up when you least expect them 
Not much between haatem and ghostwriter on form ...they both look very evenly matched ....you could argue that ghostwriter just edged it with class and going if the ground comes up fast but I wouldn't like to put money on that come the day .....especially if the ground came up good as that would very much swing back in haatems favour 
And finally rosallion .....who is a lot of people's idea of an Ew horse if there is one and I can't fault the horse and he's very much an improving type .....for me there's no value in the horse at all when you compare him to the other better priced horses in the ratings ......all comes down to value really ....
Good form actually at Newmarket is a very good thing to have also ....with the undulations really not suiting many horses ....good form can realistically give you as much as 5lb bonus so based on that ......
City of Troy   won
Henry Longfellow. Unknown 
Haatem. Won 
Ghostwriter. Won 
Rosallion.  Unknown 
That would seem to strengthen the Ew value of haatem and ghostwriter and overall those two look the overall best value in the race .....nothing wrong with Henry Longfellow though .....looks prime for forecasts and tricasts I think 🤔....although it may help later today as I think declarations  have to be in today ?....so some might drop out yet ....Aiden might not even run Henry after all which would help .....just a shame only 3 places on offer for a 20 runner race currently ....that's pretty crap really ...cmon bookies 
Anyone liking any of those ??....or other thoughts ?

I love having a go in these big races ....but I hate short priced favs ......I'd rather back a 20/1 shot Ew because the Ew returns can be better than a win bet on the fav and sometimes they actually win !!!.....so it's mainly a value hunt 

I love having a go in these big races ....but I hate short priced favs ......I'd rather back a 20/1 shot Ew because the Ew returns can be better than a win bet on the fav and sometimes they actually win !!!.....so it's mainly a value hunt 

I love having a go in these big races ....but I hate short priced favs ......I'd rather back a 20/1 shot Ew because the Ew returns can be better than a win bet on the fav and sometimes they actually win !!!.....so it's mainly a value hunt 

Well @richard-westwood every year O'Brien has the best thing since sliced bread how often have we heard the hype? A tactic they use to scare a few off and inflate the Stud value if it wins "see we told you"  August Rodin, Airforce Blue and little Big Bear to name 3. So ignoring the fav in favour of a big price ew is the right way to go imho. I will post the Speed figures soon as i have them i have little doubt that City of troy will come out tops but i might be surprised, either way the value is elsewhere.

Saturday is the 2000 guineas with the 1000 following on Sunday .....of course in the 2000 guineas all eyes are on the Aiden o briens ...CITY OF TROY  who is being likened to o briens version of Frankel 
Can't argue that the horse has done everything asked so far in facile manner so it's hard to see how this horse will be beat surely but either way ....when there's a short priced fav there has to be an opportunity for value bets elsewhere so I've asked the computer to rate the current 21 entries with a view to seeing what if anything could be a potential value bet alternative bet ....these are the ratings that came back ....
City of Troy 9.2 4/6 
Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 
Haatem  8.8 25/1 
Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 
Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 
Interesting set of results ....computer has city of Troy clear but he has been downgraded slightly based on unknown on fast ground ....so if there is any chink in this favs armour that's possibly it if the ground goes fast as it currently is .....the horse was soooo effective on soft recording a fast time ...can he be equally effective on fast ????.....not many horses can as it requires a different action but not impossible 
If the rating holds true then Aiden o brien would get the 2nd spot too with Henry Longfellow who has quietly risen through the ranks and has generally been overlooked ....but we all know never to ignore o briens 2nd or 3rd strings as they regularly pop up when you least expect them 
Not much between haatem and ghostwriter on form ...they both look very evenly matched ....you could argue that ghostwriter just edged it with class and going if the ground comes up fast but I wouldn't like to put money on that come the day .....especially if the ground came up good as that would very much swing back in haatems favour 
And finally rosallion .....who is a lot of people's idea of an Ew horse if there is one and I can't fault the horse and he's very much an improving type .....for me there's no value in the horse at all when you compare him to the other better priced horses in the ratings ......all comes down to value really ....
Good form actually at Newmarket is a very good thing to have also ....with the undulations really not suiting many horses ....good form can realistically give you as much as 5lb bonus so based on that ......
City of Troy   won
Henry Longfellow. Unknown 
Haatem. Won 
Ghostwriter. Won 
Rosallion.  Unknown 
That would seem to strengthen the Ew value of haatem and ghostwriter and overall those two look the overall best value in the race .....nothing wrong with Henry Longfellow though .....looks prime for forecasts and tricasts I think 🤔....although it may help later today as I think declarations  have to be in today ?....so some might drop out yet ....Aiden might not even run Henry after all which would help .....just a shame only 3 places on offer for a 20 runner race currently ....that's pretty crap really ...cmon bookies 
Anyone liking any of those ??....or other thoughts ?

Saturday is the 2000 guineas with the 1000 following on Sunday .....of course in the 2000 guineas all eyes are on the Aiden o briens ...CITY OF TROY  who is being likened to o briens version of Frankel 
Can't argue that the horse has done everything asked so far in facile manner so it's hard to see how this horse will be beat surely but either way ....when there's a short priced fav there has to be an opportunity for value bets elsewhere so I've asked the computer to rate the current 21 entries with a view to seeing what if anything could be a potential value bet alternative bet ....these are the ratings that came back ....
City of Troy 9.2 4/6 
Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 
Haatem  8.8 25/1 
Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 
Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 
Interesting set of results ....computer has city of Troy clear but he has been downgraded slightly based on unknown on fast ground ....so if there is any chink in this favs armour that's possibly it if the ground goes fast as it currently is .....the horse was soooo effective on soft recording a fast time ...can he be equally effective on fast ????.....not many horses can as it requires a different action but not impossible 
If the rating holds true then Aiden o brien would get the 2nd spot too with Henry Longfellow who has quietly risen through the ranks and has generally been overlooked ....but we all know never to ignore o briens 2nd or 3rd strings as they regularly pop up when you least expect them 
Not much between haatem and ghostwriter on form ...they both look very evenly matched ....you could argue that ghostwriter just edged it with class and going if the ground comes up fast but I wouldn't like to put money on that come the day .....especially if the ground came up good as that would very much swing back in haatems favour 
And finally rosallion .....who is a lot of people's idea of an Ew horse if there is one and I can't fault the horse and he's very much an improving type .....for me there's no value in the horse at all when you compare him to the other better priced horses in the ratings ......all comes down to value really ....
Good form actually at Newmarket is a very good thing to have also ....with the undulations really not suiting many horses ....good form can realistically give you as much as 5lb bonus so based on that ......
City of Troy   won
Henry Longfellow. Unknown 
Haatem. Won 
Ghostwriter. Won 
Rosallion.  Unknown 
That would seem to strengthen the Ew value of haatem and ghostwriter and overall those two look the overall best value in the race .....nothing wrong with Henry Longfellow though .....looks prime for forecasts and tricasts I think 🤔....although it may help later today as I think declarations  have to be in today ?....so some might drop out yet ....Aiden might not even run Henry after all which would help .....just a shame only 3 places on offer for a 20 runner race currently ....that's pretty crap really ...cmon bookies 
Anyone liking any of those ??....or other thoughts ?