richard-westwood

I was just gonna change that .....6f is high so I'll scrub that course for now ....dont know why I put low ....lol ? 

I'm confused lol ? ?......I meant back and rate the low draws 1 to 7 ....on the inside rail ....it isn't a new thing its just the nature of the courses and distances ....by the time they've sorted themselves out the outside draws are off the pace by as much as 4 lengths sometimes and as they pull into the home straight its difficult to make up the ground ....not impossible but it gives you a definate edge I've been noting down races where it seems to happen a lot ....at the moment I have 
Wolv  6f 7f 8f low1- 7 
Southwell 8f low1- 7 
Newcastle 6f (if stalls high) highest 5 stalls ...if stalls centre no bet 
Kemp 7f  low 1-7 
Kemp 8f low 1-8 
I.e the race 630 kemp tonight ....7f result 7 ...13 ...5 ....

No ....I'm only rating the bottom 7 draws then choosing bets from that .....I've been monitoring it for a while at diff courses and at certain distances /courses the bottom 7 have a huge advantage ....of course like today you'll get some blips but I think it will pay dividends in the long run ...in the races I've been watching 66% winners came from bottom 7 ...33% drawn 8+ ....that's 2/3 from bottom 7 draws ......you can halve a field right off in some cases ....

No ....I'm only rating the bottom 7 draws then choosing bets from that .....I've been monitoring it for a while at diff courses and at certain distances /courses the bottom 7 have a huge advantage ....of course like today you'll get some blips but I think it will pay dividends in the long run ...in the races I've been watching 66% winners came from bottom 7 ...33% drawn 8+ ....that's 2/3 from bottom 7 draws ......you can halve a field right off in some cases ....

Odds on selection
Market Rasen 3.45 Queens Gamble 4/7

Isame system for this race ...bottom 6 draws as its 6f 
530 wolv
Walking on clouds  8.1 9/4 
Vespasian   7.6  
Algheed    7.1 
Ballyare     7.1 
Ideolopolise   7.0 
Walking on clouds still looks,a step ahead of the hcapper ....he should make a bold bid ....Vespasian looks the danger ....
Walking on clouds 10pt win 9/4 

Isame system for this race ...bottom 6 draws as its 6f 
530 wolv
Walking on clouds  8.1 9/4 
Vespasian   7.6  
Algheed    7.1 
Ballyare     7.1 
Ideolopolise   7.0 
Walking on clouds still looks,a step ahead of the hcapper ....he should make a bold bid ....Vespasian looks the danger ....
Walking on clouds 10pt win 9/4 

Isame system for this race ...bottom 6 draws as its 6f 
530 wolv
Walking on clouds  8.1 9/4 
Vespasian   7.6  
Algheed    7.1 
Ballyare     7.1 
Ideolopolise   7.0 
Walking on clouds still looks,a step ahead of the hcapper ....he should make a bold bid ....Vespasian looks the danger ....
Walking on clouds 10pt win 9/4 

Changing tack today...going to specialise in races on all weather because I've noticed especially at wolv over 7f and 8f there's a huge bias to low drawn horses ... ....its not impossible to win from draw over 8 but I'd say its 30 % less likely so that gives you an edge .....so I thought if I rate bottom 8 draws looking for ew bets or wins if too short ....then it might pay dividends in long run so I'll give it a go ....I'll start with singles but it might develop into ew doubles if they perform well 
7.00 wolv 
Master zoffany   8.0  4.0 
Larado  7.8   15/2 
10pt win master ....5pt ew larado 
 

Lucky 15.
Wolverhampton 
5.30. Walking on Clouds      9/4     2nd 
6.00. Okeanos                    7/2  unpl
6.30. Blazers Five            11/10   unpl
7.00. Master Zoffany         9/4     unpl
stk    3.00.         rtn.    61.39.
Good luck all. 

Changing tack today...going to specialise in races on all weather because I've noticed especially at wolv over 7f and 8f there's a huge bias to low drawn horses ... ....its not impossible to win from draw over 8 but I'd say its 30 % less likely so that gives you an edge .....so I thought if I rate bottom 8 draws looking for ew bets or wins if too short ....then it might pay dividends in long run so I'll give it a go ....I'll start with singles but it might develop into ew doubles if they perform well 
7.00 wolv 
Master zoffany   8.0  4.0 
Larado  7.8   15/2 
10pt win master ....5pt ew larado 
 

5.30 Wolves - Ballyare
3lb below last winning mark and back on last AW winning mark of 75 tonight. Last run had a (poor) claimer on at Newcastle, was drawn high (which is the place to be i.e. near side running rail), jockey however switched left from the stalls and raced towards the far side, as a result could never get involved. Again has a nice draw tonight and has the assistance of arguably the best apprentice in the race in Ryan Sexton on board. Is a hold up horse so will require luck in running, but there does look to be a fair bit of pace in this race with Vespasien, Algheed, Intervention & Walking On Clouds all likely to go forward which should aid the selections chance. 14/1 if you're fortunate enough to have an account with them (I don't) so have taken 12/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.

Patent. 
2.15. M/ras.  Patient Dream         6/1   1st 
3.00. Taun.   Frenchy Du Large       5/2     3rd
4.45. M/ras.  Toughasoldboots    9/2        unpl
Good luck all. 

Market Rasen
3.45
Queens Gamble carries a penalty for two decent wins and is hard to oppose. But with the big Cheltenham race just a month away, too hard a race is the last thing needed.
Among the many challengers is
Alfie's Princess
Each way
Who certainly needed the run on debut at Ludlow when a fast finishing second.
As a winning pointer the two mile trip would have been sharp enough first time up and the horse with a four pound concession may know a lot more this time.
At double figure odds well worth playing here.

Wolverhampton. 
Single. 
3.30. Bit Harsh        9/4      1st
Double. 
3.30. Taun.  Passing Reflection         2/1    unpl
4.15. M/ras. Beat the Edge                 2/1     2nd
singles & double. 
Good luck all. 

Changing tack today...going to specialise in races on all weather because I've noticed especially at wolv over 7f and 8f there's a huge bias to low drawn horses ... ....its not impossible to win from draw over 8 but I'd say its 30 % less likely so that gives you an edge .....so I thought if I rate bottom 8 draws looking for ew bets or wins if too short ....then it might pay dividends in long run so I'll give it a go ....I'll start with singles but it might develop into ew doubles if they perform well 
7.00 wolv 
Master zoffany   8.0  4.0 
Larado  7.8   15/2 
10pt win master ....5pt ew larado 
 

Changing tack today...going to specialise in races on all weather because I've noticed especially at wolv over 7f and 8f there's a huge bias to low drawn horses ... ....its not impossible to win from draw over 8 but I'd say its 30 % less likely so that gives you an edge .....so I thought if I rate bottom 8 draws looking for ew bets or wins if too short ....then it might pay dividends in long run so I'll give it a go ....I'll start with singles but it might develop into ew doubles if they perform well 
7.00 wolv 
Master zoffany   8.0  4.0 
Larado  7.8   15/2 
10pt win master ....5pt ew larado 
 

I think the gods are telling me something ? ......not hugely confident in abnaa considering drifted so badly and wide draw ....but I'll let it run for a bit of Interest on crappy day ?

Left it too late to do the outsiders
Lucky 15 Selections
4.15 Carl Chris Cool 10/1 (1 pt win at 11)
4.30 Font Force De Frap 4/1 (1 pt win at 5.6)
4.45 Carl Judicial Review (1 pt win at 5.1)
7.00 Wolv Rumnotred 11/2 (1 pt win at 8.2)
1 x 0.30 win Lucky 15 = poss ret 811.95 = 4.50 Free Bet
----------------------------------------------------------------
Lucky 15 B selections
3.30 Font General Medrano 6/1
3.45 Carl Lively Citizen 11/2
6.00 Wolv She's A Mirage 15/2
7.00 Wolv Abnaa 17/2
1 x 0.10 win Lucjky 15 poss ret 565.40 = 1.50 Free bet
Late posting this as had trouble with the websitel
Total stakes = 4 points as L15's are free bets
lucky15
General Medrano
Fontwell 15:30
Outright Betting
Lively Citizen
Carlisle 15:45
Outright Betting
She's A Mirage
Wolverhampton 18:00
Outright Betting
Abnaa
Wolverhampton 19:00
Outright Betting
Stake:
FREE BET£1.50
Est. Returns:£70.08
Mon, 06 Feb 2023, 15:28:50
More Info   FREE BET£1.50 Est. Returns:£70.08 Mon, 06 Feb 2023, 15:28:50 More Info

Yeah that's what I was starting to think,  lol.
I've given it a go anyway on b365, had lively citizen on hoping for a freebie but not to be, although had applaus at 13/1 so not bad (was ew bet), other 2 unplaced.

I think the gods are telling me something ? ......not hugely confident in abnaa considering drifted so badly and wide draw ....but I'll let it run for a bit of Interest on crappy day ?

Super den non runner ....abnaa is available at  11/1 Strangely but that's got to be a value bet now  so I'll go abnaa as replacement

Super den non runner ....abnaa is available at  11/1 Strangely but that's got to be a value bet now  so I'll go abnaa as replacement

Wolv 6.00
Quite a hot favourite here in Tollerton Forest who has won his last two races. But they were both classified stakes and she's back in a handicap today. What's more she won those 2 races on consecutive days and has now had  a month off ...... maybe she peaked for those 2 days and now might need a run ?. Most of the others here are class 6 handicappers who don't win  but regularly run to a level pretty consistently. Looking for one that's doing something different today and She's A Mirage has first time visor. She's been getting beaten 2 or 3 lengths in her handicaps and if the visor sharpens her up a bit she could improve a couple of lengths ....... anyway in a poor race she's an EW price
She's A Mirage - EW at 14/1 bet365
 
Wolv 6.30 
Hubert's Dream is favourite here having won 3 on the bounce before finishing 5th last time. During that run he's gone up 23lbs in the weights and maybe that last run indicates that the handicapper has caught up with him as he's forced into Class 4 races now having been winning in class 6 and class 5. Also not keen on him dropping in trip now he's in better races. He won his treble front running but might not be able to shake off these better horses at a faster trip.  Worth taking on I think. My selection is a CD winner, won and 3rd in her last 2 and I can se her sitting behind Hubert then having too much pace for him in the finish
Cariad Angel - win at 11/4 bet365

Super den non runner ....abnaa is available at  11/1 Strangely but that's got to be a value bet now  so I'll go abnaa as replacement