richard-westwood

Grand national trial Haydock 
Bristol de mai    9.0  
Fortescue       8.8 
Quick wave    8.4 
The two amigos   8.4 
Grumpy Charlie  8.2 
Very tricky hcap ....Bristol de mai is the form horse and looks to have been kept for this race ... but 90 days off ...top weight ...and age 12 are toonmany negatives for me but he is dangerous ....generally this goes to a unexposed type with 2 to 4 chase wins ....I think 17/20 had this this profile so that leaves 
Quick wave 4  9/1 
Grumpy Charlie 2 18/1 
Two amigos 4 12/1 
So I'll try 5pt wins all 3 and hope for the best 
 

Think its pretty ? racing tomorrow to be honest maybe VW will have a good day but we will never know before hand which of hers will win. Maybe because field sizes are mainly poor these days the powers that be should consider banning multiple entries in races (1 only per trainer) think i will just fiddle about with forecasts tomorrow nothing serious just so i am at least watching something. two bets at Lingfield intergalacticat (schooling in public LTO but has to turn over an odds on shot) and power of darkness (already being nibbled in the betting) who has changed stables. A few might kick themselves if Shishkin wins and they didn't back it at a big 5/2 might be worth a few bob on it for cheltenham NRNB before it runs tomoz. anyone saying it has gone in the game i will just say "Sprinter Sacre"

225 ascot 
Phoenix way  8.4 6.6 
Laskalin   8.0  10.5 
Revels Hill  7.8 
Cap du nord 7.8 
Relatively close at top but phoenix way is looking dangerously well treated now ....very close between the others but laskalin is a value price on betfair at 10.5 (generally 7/1 ) so I'll try 10pt wins top 2 .....

225 ascot 
Phoenix way  8.4 6.6 
Laskalin   8.0  10.5 
Revels Hill  7.8 
Cap du nord 7.8 
Relatively close at top but phoenix way is looking dangerously well treated now ....very close between the others but laskalin is a value price on betfair at 10.5 (generally 7/1 ) so I'll try 10pt wins top 2 .....

Grand national trial Haydock 
Bristol de mai    9.0  
Fortescue       8.8 
Quick wave    8.4 
The two amigos   8.4 
Grumpy Charlie  8.2 
Very tricky hcap ....Bristol de mai is the form horse and looks to have been kept for this race ... but 90 days off ...top weight ...and age 12 are toonmany negatives for me but he is dangerous ....generally this goes to a unexposed type with 2 to 4 chase wins ....I think 17/20 had this this profile so that leaves 
Quick wave 4  9/1 
Grumpy Charlie 2 18/1 
Two amigos 4 12/1 
So I'll try 5pt wins all 3 and hope for the best 
 

An intriguing afternoon’s racing with the ITV cameras at Ascot for four races including the days feature the Betfair Ascot Chase which is a cracker plus a brace from Haydock and the Kingwell Hurdle from Wincanton. The ground is currently good (good to soft in places) at Ascot, good to soft at Haydock and good at Wincanton with a predominately dry forecast. Here’s my thoughts and selections for the seven race.
Ascot 1.50
Just the four novices have declared for this grade 2 3M Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase. We have a very warm favourite here in the Nicky Henderson trained Bold Endeavour who is unbeaten in two starts for the Seven Barrows maestro having joined from Laura Morgan. A winner of two novice handicap chases at Leicester and Doncaster he appears to have a preference for good ground and was pulled out in between his wins at Newbury on soft ground. Officially rated 8lb and 10lb better than his opponents here he will be at prohibitive odds and should win although at the likely odds is no value. Best of his trio of opponents may well be Sam England’s seven year old Kinondo Kwetu who’s won all five of his chase starts on good ground back in the Autumn and this represents a step up in grade for him. Oscar Elite is hard to fancy on recent form whilst Dan Skelton’s Jay Jay Reilly also has a bit to find.
Haydock 2.05
A field of seven go to post for the grade two 3M 58 yard Betfred Rendlesham Hurdle. Bar rank outsider Inis Orr it looks an open affair. Green Book is the only horse carrying a penalty here having won the Imperial Cup at Sandown a fortnight ago and that may just tell. Olly Murphy’s veteran Itchy Feet came back to form when winning at Huntingdon last time out and has to be a player here as the joint top rated alongside Erne River trained by Nick Kent who ran well at Doncaster last time and has had his wind tinkered with since. He may be the biggest danger to my fancy the Dan Skelton trained Ashtown Lad. A comfortable winner of the Becher Chase at Aintree in early December he reverted back to hurdles when a fine second to Glimpse Of Gala at Warwick the following month. He travelled like the best horse in the race for a long way and can give the Skelton’s another big race Saturday winner.
ASHTOWN LAD 2 points win @ 4/1 bet365
Ascot 2.25
A competitive 3M handicap chase is up next - the LK Bennett Swinley Handicap Chase, a class one handicap that has attracted a decent sized field of fourteen. Christian Williams has struggled for winners this season but his Cap Du Nord looks ready to run a big race off of a favourable handicap mark. Cases can be made for plenty of others including Paul Nicholls’ Danny Kirwan who’s had a break since a good course and distance second last October. Harry Fry’s JP McManus owned Phoenix Way ran well at Cheltenham last time out when fourth (beaten 16 1/2L) to Il Ridoto where a mistake half way through the contest didn’t help his chances. He’s fallen to the same mark that he won here off of a year ago and has to be on the short list. Venetia Williams saddles a brace of runners with chances in Farinet under Shane Quinlan and Laskalin under Lucy Turner. Both have claims on their best efforts. Richard Hobson’s Riders Onthe Storm is two from three at the track but this is his first try at three miles and sports first time cheek pieces today. In an open contest I’ll chance Phoenix Way who’s weighted to run a big race.
PHOENIX WAY 2 points each way @ 11/2 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234
Haydock 2.40
A wide open renewal of the Betfred Grand National Trial run over 3M 4F 97 yards. Last year’s winner (on a disqualification) Bristol De Mai heads the weights but he’s 5lb higher this time around and surely would prefer deeper ground despite his love for the Lancashire track. Venetia Williams saddles three here with stable jockey Charlie Deutsch presumably choosing Fontaine Collonges, a winner here over half a mile shorter than today back in November and not disgraced since at Kempton. His stablemate Cloudy Glen has a very good record fresh (1411) and following a 385 day absence can make his presence tell with Sean Quinlan taking the ride. Williams’ third runner Quick Wave also has claims on his best form which came on his re-appearance when a very easy winner at Sandown but he’s bombed out since in the Welsh Grand National and has a bit to prove now. The Welsh Grand National winner The Two Amigos is also in the line up on 5lb higher terms but he’s one that excels when the muds flying and he may not have his optimum conditions today. There’s plenty of others with claims including Chris Honour’s Grumpy Charley who has a very patchy win record mind and the JP McManus owned Time To Get Up who was the subject of support on Thursday afternoon. It’s a tough call but I’ll give Venetia Williams’ Cloudy Glen a go to small stakes each way with enhanced places.
CLOUDY GLEN 1 point each way @ 28/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345
Ascot 3.00
Another competitive decent sized field handicap with thirteen hurdlers facing the starter for the 2M 3F 58 yard class 2 handicap hurdle. Favourite is the Paul Nicholls trained Irish Hill who appears to have improved since having his wind done pre season having followed up an unlucky Fontwell second with wins at Taunton and Fakenham. The latter being the tracks most valuable race of the season. He’s up 6lb for that and looks the bet here. Nicholls also saddles top weight Samarive under useful 7lb conditional jockey Freddie Gingell who’s been chasing this season and has it to do off of a big weight. I’m not sure what to make of the Irish raider Zoffany Bay who’s coming here on the back of a 700 day absence for trainer Peter Fahy having joined him from France. He’s well worth monitoring in the market. There’s nothing between Homme Public and Whizz Kid on recent form at Huntingdon whilst Venetia Williams’ Djelo  is still lightly raced and may have a bit more to give. Gary Moore has his string in fine form and his Fifty Ball has shown a liking for this track winning two of his three starts here and is only a pound higher than his latest victory. Irish Hill is on the upgrade and may have another win in him and worth backing.
IRISH HILL 2 points win @ 9/2 William Hill
Wincanton 3.12
A small but select field of only four hurdlers face the starter for the grade two 1M 7F 50 yard Kingwell Hurdle. It’s hard to fancy the rank outsider Global Citizen but a case can be made for the other three with Paul Nicholls’ Knappers Hill likely to enjoy this track and surface a lot better than when racing over further last time out at Cheltenham on soft ground. He had previously made all to beat fast ground specialist Sceau Royal comfortably over course and distance taking his record here to two from two. He was eight lengths behind Nicky Henderson’s First Street at Cheltenham who looks his biggest danger here. James Bowen’s mount had previously looked good when winning the Gerry Feilden Handicap Hurdle at Newbury off of top weight and should be thereabouts. The third possible is Nigel Twiston-Davie’s I Like To Move It who also under top weight spread eagled his field at Cheltenham in the Greatwood Hurdle back in November. He also ran in that race at Cheltenham where First Street was ahead of Knappers Hill and was very disappointing back in 6th some 17L behind First Street. He has questions to answer now. A speed track on good ground looks Knappers Hill’s optimum conditions and he can turn the tables on First Street.
KNAPPERS HILLS 2 points win @ 7/4 BetVictor
Ascot 3.35
Only six go to post for this 2M 5F Betfair Ascot Chase but the day’s feature race is a cracker. Best in the weights by 10lb and more is Nicky Henderson’s Shishkin who if back to his best would beat these, he does have questions to answer mind now having pulled up in last season’s Champion Chase (bone issues) and finished third on his re-appearance in the Tingle Creek at Sandown to Edwardstone beaten some 15L. He’s had his wind operated on since and sports a first time tongue tie here. He’s stepping up in trip today as his shrewd trainer feels he needs a trip and he could easily take this if nearly back to his best. Last years winner Fakir D’oudairies was a lucky winner last time when Haut En Couleurs fell at the last when two lengths clear. Paul Nicholls’ Pic D’Orhy seems better than ever this season winning three times including at Kempton last time when coasting home by 16L. Millers Bank is held by the latter from Huntingdon form earlier in the season but has had a wind operation since so may not be totally out of this. First Flow prefers muddier conditions whilst Aye Right looks out of his depth. A decent renewal that can go the way of Shishkin to prove he’s no back number just yet.
 
SHISHKIN 1 point win 5/2 William Hill

225 ascot 
Phoenix way  8.4 6.6 
Laskalin   8.0  10.5 
Revels Hill  7.8 
Cap du nord 7.8 
Relatively close at top but phoenix way is looking dangerously well treated now ....very close between the others but laskalin is a value price on betfair at 10.5 (generally 7/1 ) so I'll try 10pt wins top 2 .....

Grand national trial Haydock 
Bristol de mai    9.0  
Fortescue       8.8 
Quick wave    8.4 
The two amigos   8.4 
Grumpy Charlie  8.2 
Very tricky hcap ....Bristol de mai is the form horse and looks to have been kept for this race ... but 90 days off ...top weight ...and age 12 are toonmany negatives for me but he is dangerous ....generally this goes to a unexposed type with 2 to 4 chase wins ....I think 17/20 had this this profile so that leaves 
Quick wave 4  9/1 
Grumpy Charlie 2 18/1 
Two amigos 4 12/1 
So I'll try 5pt wins all 3 and hope for the best 
 

Grand national trial Haydock 
Bristol de mai    9.0  
Fortescue       8.8 
Quick wave    8.4 
The two amigos   8.4 
Grumpy Charlie  8.2 
Very tricky hcap ....Bristol de mai is the form horse and looks to have been kept for this race ... but 90 days off ...top weight ...and age 12 are toonmany negatives for me but he is dangerous ....generally this goes to a unexposed type with 2 to 4 chase wins ....I think 17/20 had this this profile so that leaves 
Quick wave 4  9/1 
Grumpy Charlie 2 18/1 
Two amigos 4 12/1 
So I'll try 5pt wins all 3 and hope for the best 
 

All the stats are out there if any were any use they wouldn't be published they would be kept as secret for as long as possible, always remember that the bookies have statisticians in abundance so if any were any use they would adjust the odds  accordingly. The only stats that i have ever found useful are those that i come up with myself that i cant find anywhere else like my own speed figures.

Chelmsford. 
Double. 
5.30. Porfin      4/1
6.30. Politics    4/1
singles & double 
stk  6.00.        rtn  70.00.
Lucky 15.
7.00. Red Evelyn         7/2
7.30. Bird for Life        7/1
8.00. The Bay Warrior    13/8
8.30. Sicario                 8/11
stk  7.50.        rtn   244.13.
Good luck all. 
 
 

First got beat but I think that the favourite deserved to win after making a hash at the last.
2.50 Clon Banada Bridge 0.50 ew 11/1 5TBP
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1.50 San Quel Destern 9/4 (1.10 at 3.8)
4.10 San Your Own Story (1 pt win at 4.6)
1 x 1 pt win double = poss return of 14.62
Total 7.10 stakes today
Does anyone have any decent stats on second favourites they can share? Perhaps Michael @MCLARKEhas looked into this before
One winner so far which is welcome but won't pay the bills.
I will try 1 pt win on ~Crazy Spin at 9.4
Total stakes = 8.10 today
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Pity that Crazy Spin got beat.  It is typical that now I am doing horses at greater odds that the favourites are beating me.  Never mind, the triple odds on Sabbathical returned 5.30 pts so my loss today was only 2.80.  This makes my MTD -19 and YTD -42.70
Good to see Oisin Murphy back with a winner today
3 meetings tomorrow, mainly low grade.  I see Joe Fanning is riding the favourite in a class 3 at Southwell for Charlie Johnston; I thought that he had retired.
 
 
 

I'm just looking towards the weekend racing .....I've rated the national trial and its thrown out the following ..
Bristol de mai    9.0  
Fortescue       8.8 
Quick wave    8.4 
The two amigos   8.4 
Grumpy Charlie  8.2 
I haven't had chance to look any further ....First glimpse is Bristol de mai too old ???..and top weight too ?...anyone got any thoughts or info before I try and finalise any bets in this race ?

I'm just looking towards the weekend racing .....I've rated the national trial and its thrown out the following ..
Bristol de mai    9.0  
Fortescue       8.8 
Quick wave    8.4 
The two amigos   8.4 
Grumpy Charlie  8.2 
I haven't had chance to look any further ....First glimpse is Bristol de mai too old ???..and top weight too ?...anyone got any thoughts or info before I try and finalise any bets in this race ?

You were robbed for the forecast but well done Rich.

Kemp 8.00 
Strong power   8.0 14.5 
Silkie wilky  7.8  5.4 
Tyger Bay   7.5 
Shallow hal  7.1 25/1 
Very competitive little race ....draw is against strong power but he has a strong rating and good price  so might be worth chancing ....my only bet til saturday so I'll try 10pt wins top 2 ....forecasts all 4 

Silky wilky wins nicely .....(low drawn) ...+28.00

Kemp 8.00 
Strong power   8.0 14.5 
Silkie wilky  7.8  5.4 
Tyger Bay   7.5 
Shallow hal  7.1 25/1 
Very competitive little race ....draw is against strong power but he has a strong rating and good price  so might be worth chancing ....my only bet til saturday so I'll try 10pt wins top 2 ....forecasts all 4 

Silky wilky wins nicely .....(low drawn) ...+28.00

Silky wilky wins nicely .....(low drawn) ...+28.00

The 8:00 at kempton was a shocking performance by 8 jockeys yes i am talking through my pocket but i have to believe what is see and this race was everything to do with poor jockeys 2 were racing 8 were pissing about.

Silky wilky wins nicely .....(low drawn) ...+28.00

I think if strong power was drawn bottom 6 he'd be a strong bet but he's drawn 9 so kempton isn't forgiving draw wise ....but if the jockey can get a good position early he's got a chance ..
The fav seems very well backed ....7/4 in places ....but seems,a lot against it for such a low price ...absolutely zero value for me .....its an interesting race I'm looking forward to seeing how it plays out ?..good luck if your playing
 
 
 

Fully agree with you on Strong Power (my nap today) although KT O'Neil is very capable at overcoming the draw, not sure where Haziym comes on your list but anywhere near its french form goes close in this, the only drawback is it "appears" he is not an all weather horse so in normal circumstance should be left out, Just mulling over your post btw, this is the best race of the day for me and i also chuck count otto in there with some sort of chance. i like to see other opinions that confirm my thoughts and so will double my bet on strong power. Either way it will be fascinating to see how this race pans out.

Kemp 8.00 
Strong power   8.0 14.5 
Silkie wilky  7.8  5.4 
Tyger Bay   7.5 
Shallow hal  7.1 25/1 
Very competitive little race ....draw is against strong power but he has a strong rating and good price  so might be worth chancing ....my only bet til saturday so I'll try 10pt wins top 2 ....forecasts all 4