Racing Chat-Thursday 16th February

[kensland]

Nigel Twiston-Davis double.

Sandown. 

4.10. Poppa Poutine      10/3        unpl

4.45. Equines                  9/2            unpl

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited February 16, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Sandown. 

Single. 

1.15. Jalaijone         7/2.          unpl.

Good luck all. 

Edited February 16, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Sandown. 

Single. 

3.00. Red Happy        6/1     unpl

Good luck all. 

Edited February 16, 2023 by kensland

[cannotbebeat]

Sandown

1.15 - Gingerbred - 4/1

2.25 - Touchy Feely - 16/1

3.00 - Rolling Dylan - 7/2

3.35 - Immortal - 11/10

4.10 - Zhiguli - 9/1

4.45 - Inneston - 16/5


Newcastle

1.35 - Fusain - 7/5


Leicester

2.35 - Ben Buie - 5/2

3.10 - Ya Know Yaseff - 6/4

3.45 - Dreamsundermyfeet - 16/5

Good luck all CNBB.

 

[The Equaliser]

Lucky 15

1.00 Nc Lees Legacy 7/2

2.35 Leic Sabatical 17/2

2.50 Clon Banada Bridge 12/1

7.00 Chelm Crazy Spin 7/1

1 x 0.20 win L15 = 3.00 poss return of 1455.10

Back with some win bets soon

[richard-westwood]

I'm just looking towards the weekend racing .....I've rated the national trial and its thrown out the following ..

Bristol de mai    9.0  

Fortescue       8.8 

Quick wave    8.4 

The two amigos   8.4 

Grumpy Charlie  8.2 

I haven't had chance to look any further ....First glimpse is Bristol de mai too old ???..and top weight too ?...anyone got any thoughts or info before I try and finalise any bets in this race ?

[azzybear]

corrigeen rock 1.50 royal mogal 2.10 

[azzybear]

royal Dylan 3.00 

[azzybear]

you wear it well 2.25 

[azzybear]

search for glory 2.15 against the odds on fav 

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Lucky 15

1.00 Nc Lees Legacy 7/2

2.35 Leic Sabatical 17/2

2.50 Clon Banada Bridge 12/1

7.00 Chelm Crazy Spin 7/1

1 x 0.20 win L15 = 3.00 poss return of 1455.10

Back with some win bets soon

First got beat but I think that the favourite deserved to win after making a hash at the last.

2.50 Clon Banada Bridge 0.50 ew 11/1 5TBP

-------------------------------------------------------------

1.50 San Quel Destern 9/4 (1.10 at 3.8)

4.10 San Your Own Story (1 pt win at 4.6)

1 x 1 pt win double = poss return of 14.62

Total 7.10 stakes today

Does anyone have any decent stats on second favourites they can share? Perhaps Michael @MCLARKEhas looked into this before

One winner so far which is welcome but won't pay the bills.

I will try 1 pt win on ~Crazy Spin at 9.4

Total stakes = 8.10 today

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pity that Crazy Spin got beat.  It is typical that now I am doing horses at greater odds that the favourites are beating me.  Never mind, the triple odds on Sabbathical returned 5.30 pts so my loss today was only 2.80.  This makes my MTD -19 and YTD -42.70

Good to see Oisin Murphy back with a winner today

3 meetings tomorrow, mainly low grade.  I see Joe Fanning is riding the favourite in a class 3 at Southwell for Charlie Johnston; I thought that he had retired.

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[kensland]

Chelmsford. 

Double. 

5.30. Porfin      4/1

6.30. Politics    4/1

singles & double 

stk  6.00.        rtn  70.00.

Lucky 15.

7.00. Red Evelyn         7/2

7.30. Bird for Life        7/1

8.00. The Bay Warrior    13/8

8.30. Sicario                 8/11

stk  7.50.        rtn   244.13.

Good luck all. 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

First got beat but I think that the favourite deserved to win after making a hash at the last.

2.50 Clon Banada Bridge 0.50 ew 11/1 5TBP

-------------------------------------------------------------

1.50 San Quel Destern 9/4 (1.10 at 3.8)

4.10 San Your Own Story (1 pt win at 4.6)

1 x 1 pt win double = poss return of 14.62

Total 7.10 stakes today

Does anyone have any decent stats on second favourites they can share? Perhaps Michael @MCLARKEhas looked into this before

One winner so far which is welcome but won't pay the bills.

I will try 1 pt win on ~Crazy Spin at 9.4

Total stakes = 8.10 today

 

 

All the stats are out there if any were any use they wouldn't be published they would be kept as secret for as long as possible, always remember that the bookies have statisticians in abundance so if any were any use they would adjust the odds  accordingly. The only stats that i have ever found useful are those that i come up with myself that i cant find anywhere else like my own speed figures.

[azzybear]

henry the fifth 7.30 ew 

[BBBC]

5 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

All the stats are out there if any were any use they wouldn't be published they would be kept as secret for as long as possible, always remember that the bookies have statisticians in abundance so if any were any use they would adjust the odds  accordingly. The only stats that i have ever found useful are those that i come up with myself that i cant find anywhere else like my own speed figures.

@Zilzalian for your own speed figures do you specialise on particular tracks, class of races etc. Are you formulating the figures by watching the races themselves or using times recorded in the results? Feel free to tell me to mind my own business if you want …

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, BBBC said:

@Zilzalian for your own speed figures do you specialise on particular tracks, class of races etc. Are you formulating the figures by watching the races themselves or using times recorded in the results? Feel free to tell me to mind my own business if you want …

Mind your own f'in business. ??

[Bang on]

22 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

First got beat but I think that the favourite deserved to win after making a hash at the last.

2.50 Clon Banada Bridge 0.50 ew 11/1 5TBP

-------------------------------------------------------------

1.50 San Quel Destern 9/4 (1.10 at 3.8)

4.10 San Your Own Story (1 pt win at 4.6)

1 x 1 pt win double = poss return of 14.62

Total 7.10 stakes today

Does anyone have any decent stats on second favourites they can share? Perhaps Michael @MCLARKEhas looked into this before

One winner so far which is welcome but won't pay the bills.

I will try 1 pt win on ~Crazy Spin at 9.4

Total stakes = 8.10 today

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pity that Crazy Spin got beat.  It is typical that now I am doing horses at greater odds that the favourites are beating me.  Never mind, the triple odds on Sabbathical returned 5.30 pts so my loss today was only 2.80.  This makes my MTD -19 and YTD -42.70

Good to see Oisin Murphy back with a winner today

3 meetings tomorrow, mainly low grade.  I see Joe Fanning is riding the favourite in a class 3 at Southwell for Charlie Johnston; I thought that he had retired.

 

 

 

You are changing your approach yet again. At least you are looking for better prices.. but.. you have gone to the other extreme. You started the year doing 'lay bets', but that has disappeared, now you are backing 'each way - 5 to be placed'. Wow ! You are actually looking for likely losers in the hope that they might finish in the first 5. You have gone from trixies to lucky 15's just because others do this. Find your OWN strengths instead of trying to copy what others do, not everyone bets the same way. You are always looking to 'balance the books' in a single bet with the 'possible returns'. Do you not think that it is a case of 'deja poo' (i've seen this sh1t before). 

I applaud your never say die attitude, but you need to find YOUR best selection method. Don't over think things or try to second guess what a trainer intends for his/her horse today. Stick to the basics and start to turn things around one step at a time. Trying to win it all back at once is just chasing losses... and that never ends well.

[The Equaliser]

On 2/17/2023 at 12:12 PM, Bang on said:

You are changing your approach yet again. At least you are looking for better prices.. but.. you have gone to the other extreme. You started the year doing 'lay bets', but that has disappeared, now you are backing 'each way - 5 to be placed'. Wow ! You are actually looking for likely losers in the hope that they might finish in the first 5. You have gone from trixies to lucky 15's just because others do this. Find your OWN strengths instead of trying to copy what others do, not everyone bets the same way. You are always looking to 'balance the books' in a single bet with the 'possible returns'. Do you not think that it is a case of 'deja poo' (i've seen this sh1t before). 

I applaud your never say die attitude, but you need to find YOUR best selection method. Don't over think things or try to second guess what a trainer intends for his/her horse today. Stick to the basics and start to turn things around one step at a time. Trying to win it all back at once is just chasing losses... and that never ends well.

Of course, you are right in many ways, especially about trying to recoup losses on the day.  However, I think that it is not the multiple bets that are bad for me it is the singles bets.  I need to be extra careful when selecting and placing these in the future.  I like the multiple bets from the point of view that I can have say 8 selections and have an entertaining day of racing without losing my shirt.  In fact with the Betfred offer of triple the odds with just one winner I can often recover costs if just one horse wins.  So, for the time being, at least I will be posting up, where possible one L15 with odds of generous prices each way and another multiple bet with selections at lower prices but never less than 2/1. 

I shall be very careful with the "win" bets from now on. Placing too many win bets on any racing day is not a good idea.

I haven't given up on the "lay" bets, I just haven't had time to look at them.  I highlight on my daily worksheets all the "bad" factors e.g. Nov H'cap chases and races with over 10 runners etc. that you kindly sent to me and regard these races as good races for laying favourites.

Many thanks once again for your advice