richard-westwood

After the spectacle of last Saturday’s Grand National this weekend sees the running of the Scottish equivalent at Ayr. It was originally run at Bogside until that course closed in 1965. The race is run over 3 miles, 7 furlongs and 176 yards. There are 27 fences to navigate. It is open to horses aged 5 years or older and the off time is 15.35.
23 go to post and many bookmakers are offering each-way terms of 6 places which make this a very good betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
It is best for the horse to be relatively fresh. 7 of the last 8 winners last ran between 14 and 35 days ago. There have been 96 runners and they have generated a level stakes profit of 32 points at SP. The remainder have a record of 1 win from 117 runs and a loss of 76 points.
Less fancied horses have a good record. Those not in the first 6 in the forecast betting have produced 6 wins from 139 runs and a profit of 12 points.
Horses with between 14 and 25 career runs have recorded 6 wins from 91 runs and a profit of 11 points.
 
Just 2 horses fit these criteria.
 
HALF SHOT 50/1
FLASH DE TOUZAINE 28/1
 
I suggest backing these each with bookmakers paying 6 places.

I have it between:-
famous bridge 20/1
coopers cross 25/1
mighty thunder 20/1
I backed Mighty thunder when it won this in 2021 but i can think of plenty of excuses not to back it this time.

SCOTTISH NATIONAL
2pts e/w  MAGNA SAM 5p bog  20/1 Placed (rule 4  15p) Return  8.80
1.5pts  e/w MIGHTY THUNDER 22/1 5p bog
1pt e/w LORD ACCORD 33/1 bog 5p
9pts invested
P/L -4.72 return 8,80pts
P/L + 4.08
 

Got to be Empire steel for me in the Scottish National 👍

2nd ...I'll take that!!  ....+15.00

2nd ...I'll take that!!  ....+15.00

Newm 150 Once More For Luck 33/1 skybet 5pl 
Ten Bob each way.

2nd ...I'll take that!!  ....+15.00

Non runner yest ...and non runner california today ...always my horse 

New 150
California gem 8.0 15/2 
Yacowlef   7.9 22/1 
Very tough little race with any number of improvers but there's a bit of value in these 2 so I'll try 5pt ew  both for a bit of fun 

2nd ...I'll take that!!  ....+15.00

2nd ...I'll take that!!  ....+15.00

New 150
California gem 8.0 15/2 
Yacowlef   7.9 22/1 
Very tough little race with any number of improvers but there's a bit of value in these 2 so I'll try 5pt ew  both for a bit of fun 

Non runner yest ...and non runner california today ...always my horse 

Non runner yest ...and non runner california today ...always my horse 

Non runner yest ...and non runner california today ...always my horse 

Non runner yest ...and non runner california today ...always my horse 

New 150
California gem 8.0 15/2 
Yacowlef   7.9 22/1 
Very tough little race with any number of improvers but there's a bit of value in these 2 so I'll try 5pt ew  both for a bit of fun 

225 newm 
Alleezdancer  9.0 5/1 
Spirit of  light    8.7  12/1 
Mr wagyu   8.3 
I'll try 5pt ew top 2 

225 newm 
Alleezdancer  9.0 5/1 
Spirit of  light    8.7  12/1 
Mr wagyu   8.3 
I'll try 5pt ew top 2 

Nice doing business ....I've got corach at all rates from 6/1 to 10/1 .....so it was a good win ...should return a nice amount

Paid out £993.46 for a £3 stake which is more than I was expecting but I'm not complaining

Nice doing business ....I've got corach at all rates from 6/1 to 10/1 .....so it was a good win ...should return a nice amount

Yes ...I saw you've cleaned up ....that was well spotted very early on 

My current top 5 rated ....I don't think will change much now 
Corach rambler 9.2 6/1 
Le milos 8.9   16/1 
Delta work   8.3  
Coko beach   8.4 
Longhouse poet 8.2