godofhorses
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Posts posted by godofhorses
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2 hours ago, Striker said:
Good luck today
3.15 Beverley
Think Richard Fahey will win the race, and have backed both his fillies
Good Tyne Girl @ 7-1 Paddy Power
Kodyanna @ 9-2 Spread Ex
1pt win on both
I had a chat with a couple of people about this race. Kodyanna is sure to improve and has a good draw although we are backing Wedding Date who won a c2 and ran well in a listed event. With a good draw this looks the safest bet, is also reported to be running well at home.
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2.35Newmarket Baron Bolt
3.05 Newmarket Yafta
No info on anything today, so these are my own from watching the videos. It will be interesting to see how eastern impact gets along but I don’t see it as a betting proposition. I also don’t see why ultimate avenue would beat Baron Bolt even with it going up a couple of pounds. I’m only going to do a smallish double on the 2 picks until I get some firm info/opinions. I was at a conference with a trainers daughter this week and she promised me her opinion so fingers crossed.
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5 hours ago, Trotter said:
That 3.40 at Ripon is one of the races I looked at last night before moving on because I couldn't make my mind up
My concern about the Fav, Gurkhas, illustrates a general pattern that I look for and being 'general' it might not apply in specific cases. But in general I'm not keen on horses that slide down the weights over a period of time, reach a low point, win, then go back up again. Gurkhas reached 94 a year ago then took 7 losing runs to get back down to 83 and to win again. Now he's back up to 91. I think of these horses as 'long term decliners' ……… in decline but eventually get down to a mark off which they can win then they go back up and start losing again until they get back down below that winning mark …….. because basically they're still in decline …….. so he might not win again now until he gets below 83
If he did have a medical problem which has now been solved (the ulcers) then maybe there's an excuse for his decline and he might be able to get back up to the 90s again in which case he's still well handicapped …… that's a judgment you have to make with whatever knowledge you've got,.. it's not an exact science !
But anyway for today ……. I'd rather be on Dawaaleeb
Yes agree, I went with Dawaaleeb without fav @ 2/1 in the end. Interesting to see how it pans out!
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3.40 Ripon Dawaleeb
My colleagues on here have tipped Gurkha Friend and I do agree with their comments and it may fight it out with my selection. I just think that Dawaleeb will improve past it. I’m on Dawaleeb to win and a saver on Gurkha, Alterantuvely you could play the cover bet @ 5/2 with B365.
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16 hours ago, Destroyer said:
Hi guys. Will just rewrite selections for now so they aren’t in a giant font again lol. I will now include my NAP (and NB if applicable) on here.
4:30 - Inexex 11/4 (NAP)
Won this race for the past two seasons. Last year he did this off a 2lb higher mark. Both wins came on g/f and soft so he is versatile ground wise.
Kempton:
6:30 - Bouclier 9/1 EW Coral 4P
8:30 - Denmead 2/1 B365
Won this race last year. 3lbs higher now but he was a neck 2nd in a higher grade at York lto. Was also 2nd over C&D last August off 1lb higher.
Wetherby:
7:40 - Mango Chutney 6/1 EW &
Ice Slice 7/1 EW
*Preference is for Ice Slice*
8:10 - Our Kylie 4/1 EW
Thanks for the comments, I was looking at the 8.30 yesterday. I see you tip Denmead which likes it at Kempton and I imagine will try to control the race from the front. I think this will set it up for Quothquan! So i’m On each way!
Good luck!
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4 hours ago, DanV89 said:
Hoping for peoples thoughts on the 7.35 at Southwell as looking to oppose the odds on favourite Weightfordave who is currently an 8/15 favourite. Weightfordave is still a maiden after 27 runs - 15 over hurdles and 12 on the flat. His last run to be fair was probably his best for a while when finishing 2nd in a handicap hurdle at Kempton in May, beaten 5 lengths. This horse is rated 111 over hurdles and is one of only two horses in the race that actually have a handicap mark over hurdles. The other being 40/1 shot Lucky Robin who is rated just 84 over hurdles - based on that he shouldn't really have a chance at the weights; both Weightfordave and Lucky Robin carry 10st 12lbs yet the favourite is officially rated 27lbs higher. The one i'm looking at opposing him with is Riviere Argentee who, in stark comparison to Weightfordave has won 4 of his 17 races on the flat and is yet to run over hurdles, was last seen winning a Catterick claimer by 5 lengths in May. Riviere Argentee is the highest rated flat horse in the race (70) so purely based on this (and I appreciate that it doesn't always necessarily work like this) you would have to think he should be capable of a hurdles mark of 100+ in time. The selection gets a 7lb fillies and mares allowance as well as a 3lb weight for age allowance. Good ground no issue as has won on good and good to soft. 14/1 currently available on Riviere Argentee. Thoughts welcome as I may well have missed something glaringly obvious?!
In short you don’t have enough information to lay the favourite so dont bother! With over 300 days of racing wait for something else. Everyone knows the information on your write up (well written). I’ve been monitoring all money backed on horses lately and have identified betting patterns on some horses when the ratings fall! I’m waiting for them ones! When I watch the replays I can see the jockeys on some of them putting these horses in strange positions. Getting back to your race what’s the point in wasting money on a guess! (However logical you think it might be!)
Good Luck
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19 hours ago, BillyHills said:
Perth 305
Nendrum 7/2 PP
I think this is a decent price for a horse who should get the run of the race. Front runner who can get into a nice rhythm with no other confirmed pace setter in the line up, he's a useful sort on sharp tracks and is in decent form as showed here 17 days ago.
Yes I looked at this race last night although I have another horse on my tracker who also runs well here in Bahrikate, always seems to find one to good! I’m on Each Way!
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6 hours ago, godofhorses said:
TBH I wasn’t that impressed with a few of its last runs, I don’t see why it should turn the form with Shenanigans and I’m more impressed with Wilamina which I’ve backed each way!
Another good day!
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On 01/06/2018 at 9:47 AM, richard-westwood said:
235 Epsom
Lincoln rocks 312
Lincoln rocks probably woukd prefer faster ground but is 11pts clear of rest so got to stick with .....handles Good sft so hopeful he can handle conditions
Lincoln rocks 10 pts win 4/1 betfred
TBH I wasn’t that impressed with a few of its last runs, I don’t see why it should turn the form with Shenanigans and I’m more impressed with Wilamina which I’ve backed each way!
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3 minutes ago, godofhorses said:
Mmm thought so. I had s max eway on forever together! Such an easy pick!
Just got to pick the right Galileo horse that does like the ground! The stats for Galileo horses are nearly equally spread across all grounds!
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3 hours ago, godofhorses said:
Do you think, Galileo horses have soft going stats if around 15%, it doesn’t shout out that this particular horse will like it and on the previous running I definitely wouldn’t say your point is correct. Good luck!
Mmm thought so. I had s max eway on forever together! Such an easy pick!
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10 hours ago, owenclass said:
Magic Wand 4/1 paddy power
He is a class horse who will love the soft conditions
Do you think, Galileo horses have soft going stats if around 15%, it doesn’t shout out that this particular horse will like it and on the previous running I definitely wouldn’t say your point is correct. Good luck!
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48 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
It was lame not shite
Oh no sense of humour!!! I won’t bother posting anymore!
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On 06/03/2018 at 5:51 PM, BillyHills said:
350 Catterick
Tickanrun 100/30 bet365
Micky Hammond has his team in good form and also has a good record here. Thsi one is still a maiden which doesnt inspire the greatest confidence but I just get a feeling that this is his right race. He was well backed last time at Newcastle but bumped into an improver and prior to that showed enough at Wetherby to suggest he can win over this sort of trip.
I backed this as well! It was shite lol. But I also backed and agreed with Kylacky Gala, and what a price. Also did Pactulos in the forecast! With the 7lb claimer I thought it had a gr8 chance.
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3 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:
live snip bits from tonights sean graham preview night https://twitter.com/SPGBETTING
What am I looking at here Ted? Is it the preview night! I’ve got my own opinions and backed a lot of horses ante post! But thanks!
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8 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Lots of money for Bernie boy .....it will be a good race I think
Well between us we have nearly half the field lol!
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11 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
845 wolv
Indian affair 285
Rockley point 281
Bernie boy 279
Trotter 279
Not an easy race....but top 2 are both drawn low which should help here and might just give them an edge over the others today
Indian affair 5pts win 13/2 coral
Rockley point 5pts win 5/1 betv
Mmm I have backed 2 other horses for low stakes in this one. Pushkin Museum each way and Bernie’s Boy to win. Having watched your 2 picks many times I would fancy Rockley Point more than Indian. Good luck I’m only playing to very small stakes.
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21 hours ago, godofhorses said:
4.25 Southwell - Tomkevi
I’ve laid this horse before in Grade 3, yes I did say lay as I will now back it as I feel it’s back in its grade, is on a decent mark. Not a race to get carried away.
Another easy winner! Had Beeceepee on my watch list as well and that also won for me!
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4.25 Southwell - Tomkevi
I’ve laid this horse before in Grade 3, yes I did say lay as I will now back it as I feel it’s back in its grade, is on a decent mark. Not a race to get carried away.
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Omg your responses on here and even your explanations on Betfair will confuse most people! I’ve been hedging and dutching for years and have run teams of people doing it. Betfair probably love it as they get their commissions whatever. I’m finding margins are to tight these days for the work involved. Probably the easiest way Is to take advantage of Betfreds offers and just lay them. Although you will need to have a team of people to make it worth your while. I dont actually know why your on the forum! It’s like your a ppi sales person!
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On 04/02/2018 at 1:21 AM, Caan Berry said:
Hi Glentoby,
Thanks for the delightful sarcasm...
In return;
Details of proof of the holy grail that you insist on disproving are found via a rather delightful facility called ‘google’.
Failing that, here’s one:
https://betting.betfair.com/authors/caan-berry/
Note: that bio from Betfair is a little old now... it’s been almost 10 years.
To imply that it’s not possible to consistently make money from betting over an extended periods is somewhat rediculous. If this were the case, who would Betfair impose their 60% premium charge too? And why would every bookmaker in the land limit me? Maybe Betfair made up the premium charge and all it’s terms just to give themselves some negative publicity?
I have to say; I haven’t read all of your rather long thread... mainly because it’s so wrong within the first couple of paragraphs.
Whilst I can sympathise with a point made about ‘systems’ to some degree; there are heaps of ways to make money with a systematic and methodical approach. Maybe the interpretation of the word ‘system’ is the issue here...
Trading is not some one-size-fits-all system; there are many variables to any betting market. To think anything like that exists is just plain stupidity. Understanding the characteristics and limitations of both betting markets and sporting situations is the first step to systematically betting for a profit, being it via trading price or letting variance do hedging for you.
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I clearly had Kripke down to beat Dawn Dancer! I thought the bookies had the betting the wrong way round! I can’t post em all as my WhatsApp goes mad when racing is on!
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14 hours ago, godofhorses said:
2.15 Southwell - Warriors Legacy
I backed a horse called Rock On Baileys in a class 5 and it beat Warriors by about a length. I would have a big bet if it didn’t have such a wide draw. Although I’m willing to take a chance at a generous 3/1, probably down to the draw. With a decent jockey on board I’m hoping he can get away and being a very speedy sort I can see this happening and I would be very confident. You could alternatively play in running once you’ve seen the break! Or will the odds tumble?
On BillyHills race! I watched the videos of Cousin Khee and I was quiet impressed with this horse. I think it’s between this horse and Western Way. I’m backing both with marginally more on Cousin!
Oh good I forgot its straight! My lucks in especially as I backed Brighton and they cashed me in as s winner at 2-0 up! Lol and it’s called Warriors Valley lol. The form was there, no stable staff required lol
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2.15 Southwell - Warriors Legacy
I backed a horse called Rock On Baileys in a class 5 and it beat Warriors by about a length. I would have a big bet if it didn’t have such a wide draw. Although I’m willing to take a chance at a generous 3/1, probably down to the draw. With a decent jockey on board I’m hoping he can get away and being a very speedy sort I can see this happening and I would be very confident. You could alternatively play in running once you’ve seen the break! Or will the odds tumble?
On BillyHills race! I watched the videos of Cousin Khee and I was quiet impressed with this horse. I think it’s between this horse and Western Way. I’m backing both with marginally more on Cousin!
Racing Chat - Saturday June 9th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by godofhorses
Wrong info
Was also mentioned to me to back Equilateral in the commonweath cup at Ascot (ante post & 5/1)