opole

Steve Darcis (+2.5 sets) to beat Borna Coric at 2.00 with Pinnacle
Darcis is clearly hungry after the long absence, while Coric has only played two exhibitions without doing anything special in them. As has already been stated, it's hard to know if Darcis is ready for a long match, but a set should be fully within his range.

Double acca
Zoe Hives to beat Bethanie Mattek Sands at 1.83
Benoit Paire +5.5 at 1.90
Total odds: 3.48 with Unibet 
@opole Zoe should be a great bet and Benoit can obviously lose this match with his mental state of mind that cost him so mutch over his career but I don't think Dominic Thiem is in any position to be a heavy favourite on fast hardcourt right now. He is not liking it down under and Benoit is good when he's on top of his game so this should be even enough for the bet to come in.

Zoe Hives @ 1.87 Betfair 4/10
Can't say Mattek-Sands is "back" at all, she is 2-13 since coming back in Miami last year in March. Now she is facing a tough challenge as Hives is looking great recently beating Wickmayer and Larsson and losing a close match to big-time prospect Potapova. I can't say this are correct odds at the moment, i expect Hives to bring everything and this should be enough for current version of BMS.

Zoe Hives @ 1.87 Betfair 4/10
Can't say Mattek-Sands is "back" at all, she is 2-13 since coming back in Miami last year in March. Now she is facing a tough challenge as Hives is looking great recently beating Wickmayer and Larsson and losing a close match to big-time prospect Potapova. I can't say this are correct odds at the moment, i expect Hives to bring everything and this should be enough for current version of BMS.

Pablo Andujar +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.24 Pinnacle 3/10
Look above.
Steve Darcis +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.00 Pinnacle 4/10
I think Darcis is a living dog here, he looked really good in Pune although he was out more than one year but he is a very good player and i expect Coric to be rusty. Wouldn't be shocked if Darcis wins this but still no idea if he has the stamina to play four or five sets but i expect Darcis to win at least one set here.
Harris/Medvedev over 33.5 (total games) @ 1.943 Pinnacle 4/10
Opelka/Isner over 46 (total games) @ 2.12 Pinnacle 4/10
Kyrgios/Raonic over 44.5 (total games) @ 1.909 Pinnacle 4/10
Three matches where really big servers facing each other. Can't see many breaks there and i do not think they all win three tiebreakers in a row. Expect four or five sets in all of those matches with a lot of tiebreakers.
Majchrzak/Nishikori under 29 (total games) @ 1.98 Pinnacle 4/10
Nishikori is a dark horse for the tournament, he looked really good in Brisbane and i expect him to start strong, he isn't the type of a player who is playing with 50-60% in the first rounds and Majchrzak is nothing special, can't see him troubling Nishikori. Expect a result like 6-4 6-3 6-2 so the bet should win. 

Pablo Andujar +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.24 Pinnacle 3/10
Look above.
Steve Darcis +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.00 Pinnacle 4/10
I think Darcis is a living dog here, he looked really good in Pune although he was out more than one year but he is a very good player and i expect Coric to be rusty. Wouldn't be shocked if Darcis wins this but still no idea if he has the stamina to play four or five sets but i expect Darcis to win at least one set here.
Harris/Medvedev over 33.5 (total games) @ 1.943 Pinnacle 4/10
Opelka/Isner over 46 (total games) @ 2.12 Pinnacle 4/10
Kyrgios/Raonic over 44.5 (total games) @ 1.909 Pinnacle 4/10
Three matches where really big servers facing each other. Can't see many breaks there and i do not think they all win three tiebreakers in a row. Expect four or five sets in all of those matches with a lot of tiebreakers.
Majchrzak/Nishikori under 29 (total games) @ 1.98 Pinnacle 4/10
Nishikori is a dark horse for the tournament, he looked really good in Brisbane and i expect him to start strong, he isn't the type of a player who is playing with 50-60% in the first rounds and Majchrzak is nothing special, can't see him troubling Nishikori. Expect a result like 6-4 6-3 6-2 so the bet should win. 

Damir Dzumhur @ 3.14 Pinnacle 5/10
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/tennis/109780029/gael-monfils-withdraws-from-asb-classic-for-a-third-time
Monfils had to pull out of Auckland because of a quadriceps injury. 
Dzumhur is a tough matchup although the Bosnian wasn't looking good so far in 2019 i think we'll see a different Dzumhur at the first Slam as he is a typcial guy who is playing his best tennis at the biggest tournaments. It also very unlucky to play the first match of the new season vs. Djokovic. Dzumhur looked pretty good in Melbourne in the past, he reached the third round in 2018 and 2014, and beat Edmund in 2016 while losing to Goffin in four sets afterwards. Dzumhur is still a Top 50 player and a grinder, he will let Monfils run a lot and i think this is one of the worst matchups Monfils can have in the first round of a Slam at the new season withoung having any match practice.

Mischa Zverev @ 2.52 Pinnacle 4/10
Odds on Popyrin are a joke. Mischa Zverev had a very rough 2018 season but i expect him to do much better in 2019 as he had a very good prep and was focusing 100% on Melbourne to have the best possible shape. He is already in Australia for almost two weeks as he was preparing alongside Alex Zverev at the Hopman Cup and travelled to Melbourne early this week. Popyrin is still very young and his opening matches in 2018 showed that. He was blasted out of the court by de Minaur and wasted three set points vs Klizan in the first and was almost out in the second while being 0-3 down there but came back and nearly won from being 0-5 down in the deciding tiebreaker. Very, very shaky. Zverev is a very bad matchup as he gives Popyrin no rythm at all with his slices and serve & volley AND he is a lefty nad Popyrins backhand is a weakness. I think Zverev has  good chance here, he had a very good run in Melbourne two years ago beating Murray and Isner and the courts suiting his chip and charge style relatively well.

Pablo Cuevas @ 3.25 Pinnacle 4/10
Malek Jaziri @ 3.04 Pinnacle 3/10
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.969 Pinnacle 4/10
Matthew Ebden @ 2.53 Pinnacle 4/10
I'll write some additional words about those bets later on but i think all of them are living dogs in their matches.
 

Two more additional thoughts:
Both Chung and Shapovalov looked HORRIBLE in Auckland this week and both are massive favorites in their matches. I am thinking about going against them as it wasn't a bad day or something, it was just a poor level of play. Shapovalov did almost 1000 unforced errors vs Sousa and Andujar is a very solid baseline grinder with good defense, maybe lacking stamina for a long 4 or 5 set marathon. Chung losing to Statham from being 5-1 up in the first set was probably one of the biggest surprises we got to see in 2019. Chung was looking completly out of form and lacking confidence in his game. He looked awful. Klahn could be decent enough to beat him. 
And another information: Andy Murray announced his retirement from professional tennis after Wimbledon 2019.

Pablo Andujar +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.24 Pinnacle 3/10
Look above.
Steve Darcis +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.00 Pinnacle 4/10
I think Darcis is a living dog here, he looked really good in Pune although he was out more than one year but he is a very good player and i expect Coric to be rusty. Wouldn't be shocked if Darcis wins this but still no idea if he has the stamina to play four or five sets but i expect Darcis to win at least one set here.
Harris/Medvedev over 33.5 (total games) @ 1.943 Pinnacle 4/10
Opelka/Isner over 46 (total games) @ 2.12 Pinnacle 4/10
Kyrgios/Raonic over 44.5 (total games) @ 1.909 Pinnacle 4/10
Three matches where really big servers facing each other. Can't see many breaks there and i do not think they all win three tiebreakers in a row. Expect four or five sets in all of those matches with a lot of tiebreakers.
Majchrzak/Nishikori under 29 (total games) @ 1.98 Pinnacle 4/10
Nishikori is a dark horse for the tournament, he looked really good in Brisbane and i expect him to start strong, he isn't the type of a player who is playing with 50-60% in the first rounds and Majchrzak is nothing special, can't see him troubling Nishikori. Expect a result like 6-4 6-3 6-2 so the bet should win. 

Matteo Berrettini @ 3.56 Pinnacle 4/10
I actually do rate Berrettini as high as Tsitsipas in terms of pure talent and skills. I think the Italian can go the same way as Tsitsipas in the last season although he is two years older. Berrettini is quite similar to Tsitsipas, both are hard hitting ball striker with huge serve and offensive ground game. They met at the 2017 US open qualifiying and Berrettini lost in three sets while all three sets went to the tiebreak and i expect another tight outcome here, maybe a lot of tiebreakers. This is a Best of five match and i can't see Tsitsipas winning this easily as he looked vulnerable recently, Seppi outplayed him from the baseline and he was also making too many errors. 

He definitely has more variety than Isner, there's no doubt about that, but he's much less resilient mentally imo. Yep, there's a good price on +2.5 sets/Over 3.5 sets, but boy am I scared about that Opelka result.

You're absolutely right mate, on the paper i fully agree that probably most of those odds looking correct but i think we have a good chance to go out with a decent plus here.
Ebden is always underrated in my opinion, we all forget about the fact he is still a Top 50 player and was ranked #39 in the world a couple of months ago. I watched three matches of him this year and i think his form is decent enough to beat Struff who is always a hot & cold player. I watched all his matches in Auckland this week more or less and i can't say i am impressed. Vs. Djere he looked poor, came back from being 2-5 down in the first set winning the tiebreaker from being 3-5 down and then Djere retired after he got broken in the second set. It was a very weak level of play. Ebden on the other side looked in good shape but had some issues with his serve in Perth but looked much better in Sydney this week, i know he lost to Andreozzi but i would not overrate that at all. Andreozzi is a completly different matchup compared to Struff, Ebden likes those hard hitting opponent and big servers. On the other side he definitely has some issues with the likes of Ferrer, Andreozzi, Fognini, Simon and so on. I would consider that as a 50/50 match with a small advantage for Ebden who's playing at home. 
The thing about Cuevas vs. Lajovic is simple: I do not rate Lajovic as a player who can trouble Cuevas from the baseline as Lajovic hasn't a weapon in his game to push Cuevas and dictate the play. Cuevas looking good vs. Klahn, then looking bad vs. Humbert but let's face the truth...a guy like him at his age is focusing on the bigger events and tournaments to make money. Lajovic on the other side is in pretty weak form although he won two matches in Doha i think he looked poor there, especially on serve. Broken a dozen times, he already was broken 12 times in four matches. Cuevas beat him on clay three years ago, probably not that important as it was three years ago and on clay obviously BUT i think Cuevas is a very bad matchup for Lajovic as Cuevas is a guy who also likes long rallies and you can't frustrate him with that. In my opinion Lajovic is one of the most overrated Top 50 players these days, i he can lose literally to anyone in Top 100 and i do rate Cuevas despite age, form and ranking as a very dangerous player who should have won more titels in his career than he won. Cuevas is better on hardcourt than his record suggests. For me this is an equal matchup where i like Cuevas as he has the better serve and Lajovic struggled a lot with holding serve recently.
Jaziri is a pure value bet as the odds are based 100% on his retirement in Sydney vs. Querrey. Officially it was "knee pain" but i doubt he is seriously injured or something, he was 16 14 down outpowered by Querreys crafty strokes and serves and he looked really frustrated + he looked off like he has a jetlag or something, maybe the journey from Pune to Sydney was too much as he only had two days in Australia. I expect him to do much better vs. Ivashka. Ivashka is dangerous with his power but let's be clear: If Jaziri is fully fit he should be the favorite...
Last one is Feli Lopez. I am not sure if Lopez is a good bet at all but it's definitely value. Lopez just announced he will marry some new women in his life soon, i do not know if that's the reason why he didn't play a match yet in 2019 BUT he is in Australia for some time now and preparing for the AO. Lopez and his game style is awkward as **** and i can see a guy like Thompson having massive problems with that. Those serve & volley style and slices all over the place are tough to handle for a guy who is one-dimensional like Thompson. I can remember Thompson failing a lot of times at the Open as he was too nervous and i can say if he is Lopez will take advantage of the fact. Thompson has a weak record in Melbourne, last year he lost as a massive favorite to Nicolas Kicker and i can see the same thing happen again.

I do not agree here at this point. Polmans is a bum, no idea why he got the WC but Kudla should beat him comfortably especially as he looked in good shape recently. Fair odds for me around 5 or 6. Bolt on the other side is clearly struggling recently, no idea if he is injured or something but his performances were poor, i am quite a fan of Bolt and his aggressive style but he isn't in good shape. No idea what Sock will bring to the table but if he is fit and prepared well then he should beat him. And Cilic is one of my dark horses to win the whole thing, can't see him losing to Tomic here in the first round. Tomic is a joke these days and had no preperation at all because of an injury.
And i like Ebden and i rate him as a very skilled player with good variety while Struff is a inconsistent ballbasher who relates on his serve most of the time. If it doesn't work he is in a world full of trouble.

You're absolutely right mate, on the paper i fully agree that probably most of those odds looking correct but i think we have a good chance to go out with a decent plus here.
Ebden is always underrated in my opinion, we all forget about the fact he is still a Top 50 player and was ranked #39 in the world a couple of months ago. I watched three matches of him this year and i think his form is decent enough to beat Struff who is always a hot & cold player. I watched all his matches in Auckland this week more or less and i can't say i am impressed. Vs. Djere he looked poor, came back from being 2-5 down in the first set winning the tiebreaker from being 3-5 down and then Djere retired after he got broken in the second set. It was a very weak level of play. Ebden on the other side looked in good shape but had some issues with his serve in Perth but looked much better in Sydney this week, i know he lost to Andreozzi but i would not overrate that at all. Andreozzi is a completly different matchup compared to Struff, Ebden likes those hard hitting opponent and big servers. On the other side he definitely has some issues with the likes of Ferrer, Andreozzi, Fognini, Simon and so on. I would consider that as a 50/50 match with a small advantage for Ebden who's playing at home. 
The thing about Cuevas vs. Lajovic is simple: I do not rate Lajovic as a player who can trouble Cuevas from the baseline as Lajovic hasn't a weapon in his game to push Cuevas and dictate the play. Cuevas looking good vs. Klahn, then looking bad vs. Humbert but let's face the truth...a guy like him at his age is focusing on the bigger events and tournaments to make money. Lajovic on the other side is in pretty weak form although he won two matches in Doha i think he looked poor there, especially on serve. Broken a dozen times, he already was broken 12 times in four matches. Cuevas beat him on clay three years ago, probably not that important as it was three years ago and on clay obviously BUT i think Cuevas is a very bad matchup for Lajovic as Cuevas is a guy who also likes long rallies and you can't frustrate him with that. In my opinion Lajovic is one of the most overrated Top 50 players these days, i he can lose literally to anyone in Top 100 and i do rate Cuevas despite age, form and ranking as a very dangerous player who should have won more titels in his career than he won. Cuevas is better on hardcourt than his record suggests. For me this is an equal matchup where i like Cuevas as he has the better serve and Lajovic struggled a lot with holding serve recently.
Jaziri is a pure value bet as the odds are based 100% on his retirement in Sydney vs. Querrey. Officially it was "knee pain" but i doubt he is seriously injured or something, he was 16 14 down outpowered by Querreys crafty strokes and serves and he looked really frustrated + he looked off like he has a jetlag or something, maybe the journey from Pune to Sydney was too much as he only had two days in Australia. I expect him to do much better vs. Ivashka. Ivashka is dangerous with his power but let's be clear: If Jaziri is fully fit he should be the favorite...
Last one is Feli Lopez. I am not sure if Lopez is a good bet at all but it's definitely value. Lopez just announced he will marry some new women in his life soon, i do not know if that's the reason why he didn't play a match yet in 2019 BUT he is in Australia for some time now and preparing for the AO. Lopez and his game style is awkward as **** and i can see a guy like Thompson having massive problems with that. Those serve & volley style and slices all over the place are tough to handle for a guy who is one-dimensional like Thompson. I can remember Thompson failing a lot of times at the Open as he was too nervous and i can say if he is Lopez will take advantage of the fact. Thompson has a weak record in Melbourne, last year he lost as a massive favorite to Nicolas Kicker and i can see the same thing happen again.

Mischa Zverev @ 2.52 Pinnacle 4/10
Odds on Popyrin are a joke. Mischa Zverev had a very rough 2018 season but i expect him to do much better in 2019 as he had a very good prep and was focusing 100% on Melbourne to have the best possible shape. He is already in Australia for almost two weeks as he was preparing alongside Alex Zverev at the Hopman Cup and travelled to Melbourne early this week. Popyrin is still very young and his opening matches in 2018 showed that. He was blasted out of the court by de Minaur and wasted three set points vs Klizan in the first and was almost out in the second while being 0-3 down there but came back and nearly won from being 0-5 down in the deciding tiebreaker. Very, very shaky. Zverev is a very bad matchup as he gives Popyrin no rythm at all with his slices and serve & volley AND he is a lefty nad Popyrins backhand is a weakness. I think Zverev has  good chance here, he had a very good run in Melbourne two years ago beating Murray and Isner and the courts suiting his chip and charge style relatively well.

Damir Dzumhur @ 3.14 Pinnacle 5/10
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/tennis/109780029/gael-monfils-withdraws-from-asb-classic-for-a-third-time
Monfils had to pull out of Auckland because of a quadriceps injury. 
Dzumhur is a tough matchup although the Bosnian wasn't looking good so far in 2019 i think we'll see a different Dzumhur at the first Slam as he is a typcial guy who is playing his best tennis at the biggest tournaments. It also very unlucky to play the first match of the new season vs. Djokovic. Dzumhur looked pretty good in Melbourne in the past, he reached the third round in 2018 and 2014, and beat Edmund in 2016 while losing to Goffin in four sets afterwards. Dzumhur is still a Top 50 player and a grinder, he will let Monfils run a lot and i think this is one of the worst matchups Monfils can have in the first round of a Slam at the new season withoung having any match practice.

Good luck with those opole - you're a braver man than me. Cuevas and Ebden look in poor form, although admittedly it's very early in the season and Feliciano hasn't played properly since last season. I guess that's factored into the pricing but I wouldn't be rushing to back them regardless. I like your thinking about opposing Monfils, Popyrin and Tsitsipas and also Nadal, although with the latter I'd probably take something safer like set overs or Duckworth on a plus. Just my two cents 

Pablo Cuevas @ 3.25 Pinnacle 4/10
Malek Jaziri @ 3.04 Pinnacle 3/10
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.969 Pinnacle 4/10
Matthew Ebden @ 2.53 Pinnacle 4/10
I'll write some additional words about those bets later on but i think all of them are living dogs in their matches.
 

Damir Dzumhur @ 3.14 Pinnacle 5/10
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/tennis/109780029/gael-monfils-withdraws-from-asb-classic-for-a-third-time
Monfils had to pull out of Auckland because of a quadriceps injury. 
Dzumhur is a tough matchup although the Bosnian wasn't looking good so far in 2019 i think we'll see a different Dzumhur at the first Slam as he is a typcial guy who is playing his best tennis at the biggest tournaments. It also very unlucky to play the first match of the new season vs. Djokovic. Dzumhur looked pretty good in Melbourne in the past, he reached the third round in 2018 and 2014, and beat Edmund in 2016 while losing to Goffin in four sets afterwards. Dzumhur is still a Top 50 player and a grinder, he will let Monfils run a lot and i think this is one of the worst matchups Monfils can have in the first round of a Slam at the new season withoung having any match practice.

Week 2 is already over for me, i close the book for the week and i only take one bet this week and i think it was a smart decision as the tournaments went really strange, also AO qualies were really tough although i didn't follow that closely as i was too busy with my job including a two day travel to London till yesterday.
WEEK 2
WON: 1
VOID: 0
LOST: 0
STAKED: 4
BACK: 7.42
BALANCE: +3.42
YIELD: 85.5%
 
Overall
WON: 18
VOID: 0
LOST: 21
STAKED: 135
BACK: 162.3
BALANCE: +27.3
YIELD: 20%
 
Good luck everyone for the last three days of the week and keep up the good work in here guys.
Next week we'll have a big big amount of work to do ...i am already taking my first bets, i hope we have a good discussion over in the Open topic.

Week 2 is already over for me, i close the book for the week and i only take one bet this week and i think it was a smart decision as the tournaments went really strange, also AO qualies were really tough although i didn't follow that closely as i was too busy with my job including a two day travel to London till yesterday.
WEEK 2
WON: 1
VOID: 0
LOST: 0
STAKED: 4
BACK: 7.42
BALANCE: +3.42
YIELD: 85.5%
 
Overall
WON: 18
VOID: 0
LOST: 21
STAKED: 135
BACK: 162.3
BALANCE: +27.3
YIELD: 20%
 
Good luck everyone for the last three days of the week and keep up the good work in here guys.
Next week we'll have a big big amount of work to do ...i am already taking my first bets, i hope we have a good discussion over in the Open topic.

Week 2 is already over for me, i close the book for the week and i only take one bet this week and i think it was a smart decision as the tournaments went really strange, also AO qualies were really tough although i didn't follow that closely as i was too busy with my job including a two day travel to London till yesterday.
WEEK 2
WON: 1
VOID: 0
LOST: 0
STAKED: 4
BACK: 7.42
BALANCE: +3.42
YIELD: 85.5%
 
Overall
WON: 18
VOID: 0
LOST: 21
STAKED: 135
BACK: 162.3
BALANCE: +27.3
YIELD: 20%
 
Good luck everyone for the last three days of the week and keep up the good work in here guys.
Next week we'll have a big big amount of work to do ...i am already taking my first bets, i hope we have a good discussion over in the Open topic.

To everyone: The deciding tiebreak at the AO in the fifth set at 6-6 will be played to 10. New rule.