neilovan

For what my opinion is worth. At the moment if Djoko played Djoko I would still get it wrong.
De Minaur will have the crowd well behind him, and it is something that Djoko really does not like. It does not appeal to his narcissistic side. 
I also think that De Minaur has the ability to outlast Djoko here. He doesn't have the weapons or the game, but a slightly injured Djoko may just be vulnerable, to a really long, gruelling match. So I imagine endless rallies with these slow dunlop balls, De Minaur chasing everything down, and hopefully Djoko being beaten. 
 
In the ongoing match between Rublev and Rune, I think Rune is gonna win. Too similar in style and he is just better than Rublev, who can get so mad at himself.
 
 

Popyrin stuck me out as well.
 
Should have told everyone I put a fiver on alexandrova when she was 3-2 up 1st set. Kiss of death for her. 
Then proceeded to play like a beginner and make 14 unforced errors in about 40 points. Terrible rubbish considering the average rally is only about 6 shots. Losses 8 in a row and disintegrates. 
 
Her opponent was just slightly less bad  , but finds a lucky net cord at 5-4 15 all . Par for the course at the moment.
Just ask me who I bet on and then plonk it on the opponent.... you cannot lose
 
 
 
 

As for the men's championships. I think picking the winner is quite easy. Whoever wins has to beat Djokovic. So go through the possibilities and se who could possibly do it.
1st section (Nadal, Medvedev and Tiafoe) is probably Medvedev and Tiafoe in quarters.
2nd section is probably between Sinner and Auger Aliasimme (Sinner for me).
3rd Section Djokovic probably plays Holger Rune, who gets past Rublev..  
4th section is Fritz and Ruud in the quarters for me. 
 
Nadal (No) . He looks tired and worn out. I don't think he gets to the quarter finals.
Auger-Aliasimme (No) Guy is very strong but his court craft and decision making is horrible.
Hurkacz (No) just a dull strange version of Thomas Berdych for me. Can't do it.
Ruud (No) decent but no spark to be able to trouble Djoko.
Zverev (No). Mentally not ready after his injury. 3 wins will be significant for him.
 
For me the winner (excluding Djokovic) has to come from Sinner, Tiafoe or Fritz. None of the others can beat him.

I watched the Radacanu match. Both of them were useless to be fair, but someone has to win. In the 1st set there were 64 points and there were 34 unforced errors. That is just hopeless tennis.  A good ITF junior under 18 player would clean them up.
Radacanu is all over the place and Gauff cannot hit a consistent forehand. Then watched Kasatkina get destroyed  6-1 6-1. Didn't have anything on her, but that is pretty pathetic, considering she was 1.1 to 10.  Haddad Maia imploding in her match. Is she injured? Maybe saved by the rain. Hopefully she can come back and play better. Frankly, she can't do worse.

He had elbow surgery

I think Radacanu gets beaten quite easily by Gauff.  Something pretty straight forward like 6-2 and 6-3. She will probably retire if she is losing (again).
Gauff impoving, Radacanu kind of going backwards. Can't read too much into her match against Korpatsch. Korpatsch pretty poor, essentially her final was making the main draw. $75K helps. But she has no game. Can't win anything losing serve 7 times in 9 attempts.
I think Claire Lui has an easy time with Madison Brengle in a rain interrupted match from yesterday. 1.36 seems fair . For me, Beatrice Haddad-Maia at 1.2 is a gift over Parrizas-Dias.
Will take an 8 unit bet on the treble.

I don't see much to get too excited by tomorrow. May even sleep in.
I think Harris showed some solid grit in beating Mussetti, and I think he may have a little too much for Fucsovics. That quick motion serve is just so tricky to read, and I think it will carry him over the line here. For me Mussetti far superior to Fucsovics who has turned into a vanilla journeyman.
I also quite like Jiri Lehecka who definitely has improved since I last watched him (I think he played in the NextGen finals). He is big and strong and has some game.  For me he gets past Eubanks relatively easily.
I watched both Griekspoor and van de Zandschulp in the warm up tournaments. Griekspoor definitely with better form at the moment. van de Zandschulp been digging himself out of difficult situations. Griekspoor to win here.
Will just take a 3 legged treble which prob works out close to 4.2 to 1 for a couple of units. Not getting involved.

The Aussie Open has been the first big tournament where I have been testing underdog software. My conclusion is this;
When there is so much money in play (relative to the rest of the year), nearly every player who shows up at the Aussie Open is bringing the best version of themselves (attitude, preparation, motivation, match readiness and mentality) and the best version of their game. The majors are the 4 periods of the year when there is huge money to be earned, and nobody wants to be unprepared, and miss a potential big earning opportunity.
It's a far cry from some mickey mouse (relative WTA125) tournament such as WTA125 Hobart, Adelaide, Auckland etc. In these situations, the fields are weaker, the gap between the abilities of the favorites and underdogs are generally much smaller, and players arrive in various stages of being unprepared. Jet lag, long flight, no competitive matches for 4 weeks, low motivation, overdoing it at Christmas, not match fit etc etc  ... with not much prize money on offer. These are the tournaments where the UNDERDOGS have their day. Most players are easing in, finding their feet and getting acclimated. The mentioned factors definitely close the gap between the dogs and the favs, and this is when betting on underdogs is going to be more profitable.
So it's far more difficult to bet profitably against a prepared and ready favorite, who is motivated to win a couple of matches and get a juicy payday. A prepared, motivated, rested, non jet lagged top 40 player is probably gonna get it done against a much lower ranked player (at the majors and any 500 or 1000 level tourn ).  And in my opinion the scores reflect it. Go to flash score and look at how many expected favorites really battered their opposition today.  It's all over the place. 6-1,  6-0 and 6-2 sets are common place.
So looking for underdog wins may not be quite the way to go at the majors, but will probably prove far more profitable over the rest of the year, especially at the smaller, low quality tournaments.

As for the men's championships. I think picking the winner is quite easy. Whoever wins has to beat Djokovic. So go through the possibilities and se who could possibly do it.
1st section (Nadal, Medvedev and Tiafoe) is probably Medvedev and Tiafoe in quarters.
2nd section is probably between Sinner and Auger Aliasimme (Sinner for me).
3rd Section Djokovic probably plays Holger Rune, who gets past Rublev..  
4th section is Fritz and Ruud in the quarters for me. 
 
Nadal (No) . He looks tired and worn out. I don't think he gets to the quarter finals.
Auger-Aliasimme (No) Guy is very strong but his court craft and decision making is horrible.
Hurkacz (No) just a dull strange version of Thomas Berdych for me. Can't do it.
Ruud (No) decent but no spark to be able to trouble Djoko.
Zverev (No). Mentally not ready after his injury. 3 wins will be significant for him.
 
For me the winner (excluding Djokovic) has to come from Sinner, Tiafoe or Fritz. None of the others can beat him.

As for the men's championships. I think picking the winner is quite easy. Whoever wins has to beat Djokovic. So go through the possibilities and se who could possibly do it.
1st section (Nadal, Medvedev and Tiafoe) is probably Medvedev and Tiafoe in quarters.
2nd section is probably between Sinner and Auger Aliasimme (Sinner for me).
3rd Section Djokovic probably plays Holger Rune, who gets past Rublev..  
4th section is Fritz and Ruud in the quarters for me. 
 
Nadal (No) . He looks tired and worn out. I don't think he gets to the quarter finals.
Auger-Aliasimme (No) Guy is very strong but his court craft and decision making is horrible.
Hurkacz (No) just a dull strange version of Thomas Berdych for me. Can't do it.
Ruud (No) decent but no spark to be able to trouble Djoko.
Zverev (No). Mentally not ready after his injury. 3 wins will be significant for him.
 
For me the winner (excluding Djokovic) has to come from Sinner, Tiafoe or Fritz. None of the others can beat him.

I don't see much to get too excited by tomorrow. May even sleep in.
I think Harris showed some solid grit in beating Mussetti, and I think he may have a little too much for Fucsovics. That quick motion serve is just so tricky to read, and I think it will carry him over the line here. For me Mussetti far superior to Fucsovics who has turned into a vanilla journeyman.
I also quite like Jiri Lehecka who definitely has improved since I last watched him (I think he played in the NextGen finals). He is big and strong and has some game.  For me he gets past Eubanks relatively easily.
I watched both Griekspoor and van de Zandschulp in the warm up tournaments. Griekspoor definitely with better form at the moment. van de Zandschulp been digging himself out of difficult situations. Griekspoor to win here.
Will just take a 3 legged treble which prob works out close to 4.2 to 1 for a couple of units. Not getting involved.

Did not know, so thanks. No good watching tennis at 4am (for me) gonna make a hectic workday. Not many surprises so far. Pegula pretty good, Bouzkova not so ( unable yo break serve once in a woman's match is not very good). Had her chance at 3-3 2nd 15-40 and did not take it,  See Collins and van de Zabdschulp struggling which is surprising, but coming through in the end.
Auger-Aliasimme starting off 0-5 down is so bizarre it's quite funny. Against the Popsicle ... insane. He can only get better ? He is still 4.4 to 10 on bet365.
Stan looks injured. Leoliia JeanJean playing an awful match, which makes a mockery of her 1.9 starting odds  ? . SOftware really did not have many of these totally one sided  blow outs. Maybe 4 in 39 games so this is an odd one. 
 

Having watched a significant amount of warm up matches, in both ATP and WTA I do like Pegula and Badosa to go very close to being Aussie open champs. Pegula is just rock solid.  Actually a very interesting article in the Guardian regarding her story.  https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/13/jessica-pegula-mine-might-not-be-an-underdog-story-but-its-a-cool-story    Pegula's demolition of Swiatek  was a proper klaap, 2 and 2, bringing an emotional "snot en tranne"  (in Afrikaans means Snot, tears and Misery session. from Swiatek which was surprising for me.
OK, her dad is a billionaire, but this is someone who has gone through a lot in her journey to be #3 in the world.  I think Badosa has serious talent. Some of the ball striking versus Dart in the United cup was brilliant. Was a good match. Achilles is a vulnerability on the serve.
I have 4 underdogs that I like in the 1st round. At the odds around 10.5 - 13  to 10 I only need around a  46% strike rate to win.
Bouzkova to beat Andreescu   (1.02)
Lestienne to beat Monteiro     (0.98)
JeanJean to beat Podoroska   (0.80  JeanJean was dog earlier)
Mertens to beat Muguruza    (Evens)
I am using variable staking, but all of these 4 have the same stake. Let's call it 3.5 units. Will post my (underdog system) pics on the forum throughout the Aussie open and will keep a running tally.  In the warmups it went 39 bets, 112.2 units bet, returned a profit of 32.3 units for a 28.8% profit and a strike rate of 64% . My average odds where 1.03 or 10.3 to 10. If you divide 1 by 2.03 you get the implied probability. SO I need to beat a strike rate of 49% which I am doing easily.
We'll see what happens but I am confident.

Having watched a significant amount of warm up matches, in both ATP and WTA I do like Pegula and Badosa to go very close to being Aussie open champs. Pegula is just rock solid.  Actually a very interesting article in the Guardian regarding her story.  https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/13/jessica-pegula-mine-might-not-be-an-underdog-story-but-its-a-cool-story    Pegula's demolition of Swiatek  was a proper klaap, 2 and 2, bringing an emotional "snot en tranne"  (in Afrikaans means Snot, tears and Misery session. from Swiatek which was surprising for me.
OK, her dad is a billionaire, but this is someone who has gone through a lot in her journey to be #3 in the world.  I think Badosa has serious talent. Some of the ball striking versus Dart in the United cup was brilliant. Was a good match. Achilles is a vulnerability on the serve.
I have 4 underdogs that I like in the 1st round. At the odds around 10.5 - 13  to 10 I only need around a  46% strike rate to win.
Bouzkova to beat Andreescu   (1.02)
Lestienne to beat Monteiro     (0.98)
JeanJean to beat Podoroska   (0.80  JeanJean was dog earlier)
Mertens to beat Muguruza    (Evens)
I am using variable staking, but all of these 4 have the same stake. Let's call it 3.5 units. Will post my (underdog system) pics on the forum throughout the Aussie open and will keep a running tally.  In the warmups it went 39 bets, 112.2 units bet, returned a profit of 32.3 units for a 28.8% profit and a strike rate of 64% . My average odds where 1.03 or 10.3 to 10. If you divide 1 by 2.03 you get the implied probability. SO I need to beat a strike rate of 49% which I am doing easily.
We'll see what happens but I am confident.

Looking forward to the Aussie open tomorrow.
I do have some early round betting in the majors that people tend to disagree with. But my feeling is that in certain situations you must take the overwhelming odds on the overwhelming favorites, in small parlays for small medium stakes. The parlay below gives 12 to 10 which is fine for me. I really don't feel that there is much danger with these picks. Also, understand that over a best of 5 set match, the favorites percentage of winning increases by about 5%. It is just harder for a weaker player to maintain a winning standard for the 3 sets required for the win. So I prefer to make these types of parlay's in the ATP because of the 5 set matches.
Multibet (4) 2.20 2:0   1.26  Pegula, Jessica v Cristian, Jaqueline Adina  Correct Set Score  Aus Open Singles (W)   2023-01-16 02:00 Wawrinka, Stan1.21  Molcan, Alex v Wawrinka, Stan  Winner   Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-16 06:30 Evans, Daniel  1.11  Bagnis, Facundo v Evans, Daniel  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00 Rublev, Andrey  1.30 Rublev, Andrey v Thiem, Dominic  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00 Parlay gives 16 to 10
 Multibet (6) 2.60 Tiafoe, Frances1.13 Altmaier, Daniel v Tiafoe, Frances  Winner  Aus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-16 03:15 Auger-Aliassime, Felix1.08  Pospisil, Vasek v Auger-Aliassime, Felix Winner Aus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 07:45 Tsitsipas, Stefanos1.16  Tsitsipas, Stefanos v Halys, QuentinWinnerAus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 10:00 Berrettini, Matteo1.30 Berrettini, Matteo v Murray, AndyWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00 Kokkinakis, Thanasi1.22 Kokkinakis, Thanasi v Fognini, FabioWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00 Kyrgios, Nick1.16 Kyrgios, Nick v Safiullin, RomanWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00    

Having watched a significant amount of warm up matches, in both ATP and WTA I do like Pegula and Badosa to go very close to being Aussie open champs. Pegula is just rock solid.  Actually a very interesting article in the Guardian regarding her story.  https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/13/jessica-pegula-mine-might-not-be-an-underdog-story-but-its-a-cool-story    Pegula's demolition of Swiatek  was a proper klaap, 2 and 2, bringing an emotional "snot en tranne"  (in Afrikaans means Snot, tears and Misery session. from Swiatek which was surprising for me.
OK, her dad is a billionaire, but this is someone who has gone through a lot in her journey to be #3 in the world.  I think Badosa has serious talent. Some of the ball striking versus Dart in the United cup was brilliant. Was a good match. Achilles is a vulnerability on the serve.
I have 4 underdogs that I like in the 1st round. At the odds around 10.5 - 13  to 10 I only need around a  46% strike rate to win.
Bouzkova to beat Andreescu   (1.02)
Lestienne to beat Monteiro     (0.98)
JeanJean to beat Podoroska   (0.80  JeanJean was dog earlier)
Mertens to beat Muguruza    (Evens)
I am using variable staking, but all of these 4 have the same stake. Let's call it 3.5 units. Will post my (underdog system) pics on the forum throughout the Aussie open and will keep a running tally.  In the warmups it went 39 bets, 112.2 units bet, returned a profit of 32.3 units for a 28.8% profit and a strike rate of 64% . My average odds where 1.03 or 10.3 to 10. If you divide 1 by 2.03 you get the implied probability. SO I need to beat a strike rate of 49% which I am doing easily.
We'll see what happens but I am confident.

Looking forward to the Aussie open tomorrow.
I do have some early round betting in the majors that people tend to disagree with. But my feeling is that in certain situations you must take the overwhelming odds on the overwhelming favorites, in small parlays for small medium stakes. The parlay below gives 12 to 10 which is fine for me. I really don't feel that there is much danger with these picks. Also, understand that over a best of 5 set match, the favorites percentage of winning increases by about 5%. It is just harder for a weaker player to maintain a winning standard for the 3 sets required for the win. So I prefer to make these types of parlay's in the ATP because of the 5 set matches.
Multibet (4) 2.20 2:0   1.26  Pegula, Jessica v Cristian, Jaqueline Adina  Correct Set Score  Aus Open Singles (W)   2023-01-16 02:00 Wawrinka, Stan1.21  Molcan, Alex v Wawrinka, Stan  Winner   Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-16 06:30 Evans, Daniel  1.11  Bagnis, Facundo v Evans, Daniel  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00 Rublev, Andrey  1.30 Rublev, Andrey v Thiem, Dominic  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00 Parlay gives 16 to 10
 Multibet (6) 2.60 Tiafoe, Frances1.13 Altmaier, Daniel v Tiafoe, Frances  Winner  Aus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-16 03:15 Auger-Aliassime, Felix1.08  Pospisil, Vasek v Auger-Aliassime, Felix Winner Aus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 07:45 Tsitsipas, Stefanos1.16  Tsitsipas, Stefanos v Halys, QuentinWinnerAus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 10:00 Berrettini, Matteo1.30 Berrettini, Matteo v Murray, AndyWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00 Kokkinakis, Thanasi1.22 Kokkinakis, Thanasi v Fognini, FabioWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00 Kyrgios, Nick1.16 Kyrgios, Nick v Safiullin, RomanWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00    

Having watched a significant amount of warm up matches, in both ATP and WTA I do like Pegula and Badosa to go very close to being Aussie open champs. Pegula is just rock solid.  Actually a very interesting article in the Guardian regarding her story.  https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/13/jessica-pegula-mine-might-not-be-an-underdog-story-but-its-a-cool-story    Pegula's demolition of Swiatek  was a proper klaap, 2 and 2, bringing an emotional "snot en tranne"  (in Afrikaans means Snot, tears and Misery session. from Swiatek which was surprising for me.
OK, her dad is a billionaire, but this is someone who has gone through a lot in her journey to be #3 in the world.  I think Badosa has serious talent. Some of the ball striking versus Dart in the United cup was brilliant. Was a good match. Achilles is a vulnerability on the serve.
I have 4 underdogs that I like in the 1st round. At the odds around 10.5 - 13  to 10 I only need around a  46% strike rate to win.
Bouzkova to beat Andreescu   (1.02)
Lestienne to beat Monteiro     (0.98)
JeanJean to beat Podoroska   (0.80  JeanJean was dog earlier)
Mertens to beat Muguruza    (Evens)
I am using variable staking, but all of these 4 have the same stake. Let's call it 3.5 units. Will post my (underdog system) pics on the forum throughout the Aussie open and will keep a running tally.  In the warmups it went 39 bets, 112.2 units bet, returned a profit of 32.3 units for a 28.8% profit and a strike rate of 64% . My average odds where 1.03 or 10.3 to 10. If you divide 1 by 2.03 you get the implied probability. SO I need to beat a strike rate of 49% which I am doing easily.
We'll see what happens but I am confident.

Looking forward to the Aussie open tomorrow.
I do have some early round betting in the majors that people tend to disagree with. But my feeling is that in certain situations you must take the overwhelming odds on the overwhelming favorites, in small parlays for small medium stakes. The parlay below gives 12 to 10 which is fine for me. I really don't feel that there is much danger with these picks. Also, understand that over a best of 5 set match, the favorites percentage of winning increases by about 5%. It is just harder for a weaker player to maintain a winning standard for the 3 sets required for the win. So I prefer to make these types of parlay's in the ATP because of the 5 set matches.
Multibet (4) 2.20 2:0   1.26  Pegula, Jessica v Cristian, Jaqueline Adina  Correct Set Score  Aus Open Singles (W)   2023-01-16 02:00 Wawrinka, Stan1.21  Molcan, Alex v Wawrinka, Stan  Winner   Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-16 06:30 Evans, Daniel  1.11  Bagnis, Facundo v Evans, Daniel  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00 Rublev, Andrey  1.30 Rublev, Andrey v Thiem, Dominic  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00 Parlay gives 16 to 10
 Multibet (6) 2.60 Tiafoe, Frances1.13 Altmaier, Daniel v Tiafoe, Frances  Winner  Aus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-16 03:15 Auger-Aliassime, Felix1.08  Pospisil, Vasek v Auger-Aliassime, Felix Winner Aus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 07:45 Tsitsipas, Stefanos1.16  Tsitsipas, Stefanos v Halys, QuentinWinnerAus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 10:00 Berrettini, Matteo1.30 Berrettini, Matteo v Murray, AndyWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00 Kokkinakis, Thanasi1.22 Kokkinakis, Thanasi v Fognini, FabioWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00 Kyrgios, Nick1.16 Kyrgios, Nick v Safiullin, RomanWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00    

Watching the Blinkova v L Davis match. Blinkova 3-0 up 1st set and 40-15. Then loses 6 straight games to lose the set 6-3 and is now 4-1 down in the second set. Lost 10-1 after being 3 games up. Woman's tennis at its best. Bizarre considering both players went through the tournament not dropping a set.

Been watching quite a bit of the tennis (have tennischannel now). Two standouts for me. Noskova and Linette in the woman's. Both have been playing very solid tennis.  Linette with wins over Teichmann and Bronzetti (6-1 6-2). I think she has too much form for Keys tomorrow.
 Multibet (2)6.47 Noskova, Linda2.65
Noskova, Linda v Azarenka, Victoria
Winner | Live In Play WTA Adelaide, Australia Women Singles Ended | Total Sets: 2 - 1 | Game Score: 7 - 6 2023-01-06 07:55 Linette, Magda2.44
Linette, Magda v Keys, Madison
Winner
United Cup 2023-01-07 02:20  

Been watching quite a bit of the tennis (have tennischannel now). Two standouts for me. Noskova and Linette in the woman's. Both have been playing very solid tennis.  Linette with wins over Teichmann and Bronzetti (6-1 6-2). I think she has too much form for Keys tomorrow.
 Multibet (2)6.47 Noskova, Linda2.65
Noskova, Linda v Azarenka, Victoria
Winner | Live In Play WTA Adelaide, Australia Women Singles Ended | Total Sets: 2 - 1 | Game Score: 7 - 6 2023-01-06 07:55 Linette, Magda2.44
Linette, Magda v Keys, Madison
Winner
United Cup 2023-01-07 02:20  

Could I have 50-50

Could I have 50-50

Could I have 50-50