neilovan

I wish I could give you a definitive answer. Wolf has been losing matches, most of them quite close. Brooksby on a better run of form. This was just a very small bet for me but I still have 2 legs outstanding (Brooksby and IPL today);
 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.19
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia 2-Way Odds (12) - 2WON1.39
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra   2-Way Odds (12) - 2VOID1.30
Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Two way - 2WON1.65
Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Two way - 12.05
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal FC Totals 2.5 - oWON2.1
 
Looking at today's matches I see squat.  Software liked Brengle to beat McNally and Riske to beat Navvaro. If I had to pick a couple of matches to go with those two I would be going with Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul to also win. 
If I had to go long shots, I would be looking at Dzumhur to beat Vavassori and Kotov to beat Versasco (both suspended from yesterday - Marrakech). I would be betting both of these as singles, and I think at least one of them wins.
 
 

I wish I could give you a definitive answer. Wolf has been losing matches, most of them quite close. Brooksby on a better run of form. This was just a very small bet for me but I still have 2 legs outstanding (Brooksby and IPL today);
 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.19
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia 2-Way Odds (12) - 2WON1.39
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra   2-Way Odds (12) - 2VOID1.30
Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Two way - 2WON1.65
Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Two way - 12.05
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal FC Totals 2.5 - oWON2.1
 
Looking at today's matches I see squat.  Software liked Brengle to beat McNally and Riske to beat Navvaro. If I had to pick a couple of matches to go with those two I would be going with Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul to also win. 
If I had to go long shots, I would be looking at Dzumhur to beat Vavassori and Kotov to beat Versasco (both suspended from yesterday - Marrakech). I would be betting both of these as singles, and I think at least one of them wins.
 
 

Finally, one of runners quits when behind. Thanks Kvitova.

Finally, one of runners quits when behind. Thanks Kvitova.

I tend to bet slightly smaller in the ATP 250 level events. Just one bet today a mixture of tennis , some cricket and Arsenal later. I think on a slow day, sometimes the best is not to go looking for trouble and dig yourself a hole. So for me, a small bet; 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson . Wolf on a stinker of a run and Brooksby comfortable here.
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia  . Begu should be too good. 
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra  .  Kvitova to play like we expect and win comfortably here.    Not crazy about many of the other low priced favorites.

I tend to bet slightly smaller in the ATP 250 level events. Just one bet today a mixture of tennis , some cricket and Arsenal later. I think on a slow day, sometimes the best is not to go looking for trouble and dig yourself a hole. So for me, a small bet; 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson . Wolf on a stinker of a run and Brooksby comfortable here.
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia  . Begu should be too good. 
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra  .  Kvitova to play like we expect and win comfortably here.    Not crazy about many of the other low priced favorites.

I tend to bet slightly smaller in the ATP 250 level events. Just one bet today a mixture of tennis , some cricket and Arsenal later. I think on a slow day, sometimes the best is not to go looking for trouble and dig yourself a hole. So for me, a small bet; 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson . Wolf on a stinker of a run and Brooksby comfortable here.
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia  . Begu should be too good. 
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra  .  Kvitova to play like we expect and win comfortably here.    Not crazy about many of the other low priced favorites.

I tend to bet slightly smaller in the ATP 250 level events. Just one bet today a mixture of tennis , some cricket and Arsenal later. I think on a slow day, sometimes the best is not to go looking for trouble and dig yourself a hole. So for me, a small bet; 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson . Wolf on a stinker of a run and Brooksby comfortable here.
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia  . Begu should be too good. 
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra  .  Kvitova to play like we expect and win comfortably here.    Not crazy about many of the other low priced favorites.

I tend to bet slightly smaller in the ATP 250 level events. Just one bet today a mixture of tennis , some cricket and Arsenal later. I think on a slow day, sometimes the best is not to go looking for trouble and dig yourself a hole. So for me, a small bet; 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson . Wolf on a stinker of a run and Brooksby comfortable here.
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia  . Begu should be too good. 
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra  .  Kvitova to play like we expect and win comfortably here.    Not crazy about many of the other low priced favorites.

I tend to bet slightly smaller in the ATP 250 level events. Just one bet today a mixture of tennis , some cricket and Arsenal later. I think on a slow day, sometimes the best is not to go looking for trouble and dig yourself a hole. So for me, a small bet; 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson . Wolf on a stinker of a run and Brooksby comfortable here.
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia  . Begu should be too good. 
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra  .  Kvitova to play like we expect and win comfortably here.    Not crazy about many of the other low priced favorites.

I just can't put a cent on that guy. Reminds me of a Berdych or Sampras. Just dull individuals. I don't know why but I find his style of play absolutely dreary.
If I bet on him, I would be forced to watch the match, and every hour not wasted is precious too me ?

I just can't put a cent on that guy. Reminds me of a Berdych or Sampras. Just dull individuals. I don't know why but I find his style of play absolutely dreary.
If I bet on him, I would be forced to watch the match, and every hour not wasted is precious too me ?

Imagine going to the tennis and Badosa retires and then Sinner retires. Do they give you your money back?

Imagine going to the tennis and Badosa retires and then Sinner retires. Do they give you your money back?

The more I look at later stage tournament matches, the more I'm thinking 'In game bet'. 
Ok your odds are less, but it is very difficult to turn a match around against a very solid opponent, 
AN interesting thing to look at is front runners. How often does a player win when they win the 1st set? If I can find someone that is very good at winning from this situation, I am prepared to take a discounted price. For me this applies more to the WTA, as all matches are best of 3 sets.
So you look at a guy like Jannick Sinner. From 12/31/2018 he had 78 matches where he won the 1st set, he won 68 times for a win rate of 87%. If you take 1 and divide by 0.87 you get 1.15. So if Sinner wins the 1st set, and you are still getting odds > 1.15  you are in the advantage zone. ANd this applies all over the place. Take a guy like C.M Stebe  ... who ? He won 9 of 10 matches (in the same period), when he won the 1st set. Only loss against Cilic at the US Open in 2019. So it throws up some surprises, especially with lesser known players. I'm pretty sure you would have got better odds than 1.11 on Stebe to win, in most of those matches, after the first set.
Even in the match-up between Zverev and Ruud. Zverev has won 107 times in 120 when winning the 1st set (89%). Ruud has won 73 in 79 times (92%). It just shows you how crucial 1st set is, especially so in a 3 set match.
 

Imagine going to the tennis and Badosa retires and then Sinner retires. Do they give you your money back?

I agree. You could even take it further and look at how often he does it against ranks 25 and below, 26-55, 56-100 and 100+  and what those ranks do when they lose the 1st set.
 
Was just trying it and messing around with it (Boredom I guess).
Carballes Baena, Roberto vs Gaio, Federico
2-Way Odds (12) - 11.09 Virtanen, Otto vs Copil, Marius
2-Way Odds (12) - 2WON1.14   Waiting on Baena but still get 2.4 to 10   Just need to win 80% of the time.

Two things about that analysis @neilovan and using the two examples you gave. If you want to assess how often Sinner converts a first set lead into a win, I'd argue you need to not only look at how often he does it, but also how often his opponent has been able to win after losing the first set. That will give you a better idea of the chances of Sinner converting winning the opening set into winning the match. A good example of what I mean would be if he played Nadal or Djokovic - if he wins the first set against either of those there's no way he going to be 1.15 for the win, and that's because of how good Nadal and Djokovic are at winning from behind.  As for the Stebe example, you'd need way more than a ten match sample to say that any player is a reliable bet to win a match after taking the opening set.

The more I look at later stage tournament matches, the more I'm thinking 'In game bet'. 
Ok your odds are less, but it is very difficult to turn a match around against a very solid opponent, 
AN interesting thing to look at is front runners. How often does a player win when they win the 1st set? If I can find someone that is very good at winning from this situation, I am prepared to take a discounted price. For me this applies more to the WTA, as all matches are best of 3 sets.
So you look at a guy like Jannick Sinner. From 12/31/2018 he had 78 matches where he won the 1st set, he won 68 times for a win rate of 87%. If you take 1 and divide by 0.87 you get 1.15. So if Sinner wins the 1st set, and you are still getting odds > 1.15  you are in the advantage zone. ANd this applies all over the place. Take a guy like C.M Stebe  ... who ? He won 9 of 10 matches (in the same period), when he won the 1st set. Only loss against Cilic at the US Open in 2019. So it throws up some surprises, especially with lesser known players. I'm pretty sure you would have got better odds than 1.11 on Stebe to win, in most of those matches, after the first set.
Even in the match-up between Zverev and Ruud. Zverev has won 107 times in 120 when winning the 1st set (89%). Ruud has won 73 in 79 times (92%). It just shows you how crucial 1st set is, especially so in a 3 set match.
 

Watching Kyrigos implode, just makes me wonder why I ever backed that guy. Maybe I'm a sucker for flawed talented people. He just can't control himself. Disappointed to see Tiafoe lose. Went to sleep after he won the 1st set. Drifted off and lost his way ...
For me SInner at 1.6 to 10 to beat Cerundolo is a complete joke. He has not been playing great, and there is something that Cerundolo likes in Miami. Maybe very similar to Argentina (where he also played very well). Cerundolo has 2 recent wins over Kecmanovic, so I don't think this is a cruise for Sinner. Maybe he is too good, but I think it could be closer than expected. Young players need confidence, and that comes from winning. When you win, and keep winning you also buy into the coaches plan and tactics more easily.  I would be going over 20.5 games here.
Not feeling it for Zverev over Ruud. Perhaps I have a sub-conscious dislike for Zverev, but I see no progress in his mentality or game. Seems to have stagnated a little, and what you see is what you get. I thought he was brilliant at the Olympics, where he turned it on 2nd and 3rd sets to flatten Djoko. Perhaps just a purple patch fluke? I think Ruud probably runs a close 1st set and then loses the second. Possibly a small bet on the over 21.5 games.

Watching Kyrigos implode, just makes me wonder why I ever backed that guy. Maybe I'm a sucker for flawed talented people. He just can't control himself. Disappointed to see Tiafoe lose. Went to sleep after he won the 1st set. Drifted off and lost his way ...
For me SInner at 1.6 to 10 to beat Cerundolo is a complete joke. He has not been playing great, and there is something that Cerundolo likes in Miami. Maybe very similar to Argentina (where he also played very well). Cerundolo has 2 recent wins over Kecmanovic, so I don't think this is a cruise for Sinner. Maybe he is too good, but I think it could be closer than expected. Young players need confidence, and that comes from winning. When you win, and keep winning you also buy into the coaches plan and tactics more easily.  I would be going over 20.5 games here.
Not feeling it for Zverev over Ruud. Perhaps I have a sub-conscious dislike for Zverev, but I see no progress in his mentality or game. Seems to have stagnated a little, and what you see is what you get. I thought he was brilliant at the Olympics, where he turned it on 2nd and 3rd sets to flatten Djoko. Perhaps just a purple patch fluke? I think Ruud probably runs a close 1st set and then loses the second. Possibly a small bet on the over 21.5 games.

She's prettier than Stan

In the 70's South Africa was very similar to Australia. Living was cheap, with good weather and lot's of land. As things got more expensive courts were demolished and property sub-divided and sold off. I went to Buenos Aires for work about 15 years ago, and was amazed to see so many public courts. All well appointed, neat, clay , floodlights with tennis federation sponsored coaches, and free balls. As a kid, grab your shoes and a racquet and head on over to the local club. It just makes the game so affordable, and lowers the barrier to entry.  Few people can afford private coaching for kids 3 times a week, France, is the same with the French tennis federation doing an excellent job. 
My club (Wanderers) is ridiculous. There are 11 all weather courts with floodlights. You pay subscriptions of about 185 pounds for the year, but you can play as much as you like. On a Sunday you could play all day if you wanted.  They have a 6 a side soccer center with 4 fields, cricket oval, astro turf hockey where the National team plays, BIG running club, 4 lawn bowling greens, with nice decks and bar area. If you like sport and being outdoors it's perfect   And we have a 3 month Winter, where it doesn't rain (perfect blue sky's).
But we have other issues ???

She's prettier than Stan

Dont compare wawrinka with mladenovic..