neilovan

So Monday not a great start. Murray just did not look healthy, but he was out on his feet after 1 set, which I didn't expect. Got to  be carrying an injury, because a pro that is out of gas after an hour and 1 set, is like a footballer being exhausted at HT. The Gojo match was to late for me here, but Paire is like the blind chicken. Peck away and you also hit some seeds, but there is a reason he's slipped out of the top 100.
They did have Kyle Edmunds match on TV here, and he looked reasonable. Not sure why he is such a dog against Dan Evans, who has not  played a competitive match on hard court for quite a few months. Can't see Evans rolling over him and I am expecting at least 1 breaker here (over 21.5 games looks decent at about 6 to 10), but I think I'll go small bet on Edmund.
In the WTA I am expecting Taucson to beat Petkovic. Not incredible odds, but the bookies are accurate with these two players. Tauson has won 17 of 21 matches starting as a favorite on hard courts. In the same period, Petkovic (as an underdog), has won 6 in 24 matches. In her 18 losses, she has lost the 1st set 16 times, winning just twice after losing the 1st set (as a starting match underdog). So I will take a small/medium bet on the double Edmund and Tauson, but am prepared to bet big on Tauson, if she wins the 1st set and the odds are 1.25+
 

Well, i am glad we cleared that out how the translation of the metaphysical into reality happens, but what are your thoughts on today's card and do you see any value in it?

I think you need to factor in travel, and which players have been playing for weeks in the USA, versus those just arriving. Gojowczyk played Newport (grass), but he's played Challenger  and Atlanta, and he's been there since 11 of July.  Paire  just got blitzed by Brooksby in Atlanta a few days ago, and comes into this match on a 7 match losing streak (lost 9 of his last 10). Paire has won 2 of the last 16 sets he has played. For me Gojo for the win here.
I like Murray to beat M Ymer quite easily. Not that Murray has been playing matches on hard, but he played Newport and has been in the States before 12 July, while Ymer was playing on clay in Croatia as late as 25th July. It's a long flight, and at least 6 time zones. Having just done similar, it takes at least 5 or 6 days to just reset your internal clock and feel half normal. Then throw in a pretty hot day (expected 32C with 65% humidity) and Ymer could walk into a wall.
I think you also see more effort and commitment from the players in these matches, because the US open is 4 weeks away, and the money from winning a couple of matches there is big motivation. Even getting into the main draw is at least 70% more than winning a tournament like Rhode Island. 

I think you need to factor in travel, and which players have been playing for weeks in the USA, versus those just arriving. Gojowczyk played Newport (grass), but he's played Challenger  and Atlanta, and he's been there since 11 of July.  Paire  just got blitzed by Brooksby in Atlanta a few days ago, and comes into this match on a 7 match losing streak (lost 9 of his last 10). Paire has won 2 of the last 16 sets he has played. For me Gojo for the win here.
I like Murray to beat M Ymer quite easily. Not that Murray has been playing matches on hard, but he played Newport and has been in the States before 12 July, while Ymer was playing on clay in Croatia as late as 25th July. It's a long flight, and at least 6 time zones. Having just done similar, it takes at least 5 or 6 days to just reset your internal clock and feel half normal. Then throw in a pretty hot day (expected 32C with 65% humidity) and Ymer could walk into a wall.
I think you also see more effort and commitment from the players in these matches, because the US open is 4 weeks away, and the money from winning a couple of matches there is big motivation. Even getting into the main draw is at least 70% more than winning a tournament like Rhode Island. 

I think you need to factor in travel, and which players have been playing for weeks in the USA, versus those just arriving. Gojowczyk played Newport (grass), but he's played Challenger  and Atlanta, and he's been there since 11 of July.  Paire  just got blitzed by Brooksby in Atlanta a few days ago, and comes into this match on a 7 match losing streak (lost 9 of his last 10). Paire has won 2 of the last 16 sets he has played. For me Gojo for the win here.
I like Murray to beat M Ymer quite easily. Not that Murray has been playing matches on hard, but he played Newport and has been in the States before 12 July, while Ymer was playing on clay in Croatia as late as 25th July. It's a long flight, and at least 6 time zones. Having just done similar, it takes at least 5 or 6 days to just reset your internal clock and feel half normal. Then throw in a pretty hot day (expected 32C with 65% humidity) and Ymer could walk into a wall.
I think you also see more effort and commitment from the players in these matches, because the US open is 4 weeks away, and the money from winning a couple of matches there is big motivation. Even getting into the main draw is at least 70% more than winning a tournament like Rhode Island. 

I think you need to factor in travel, and which players have been playing for weeks in the USA, versus those just arriving. Gojowczyk played Newport (grass), but he's played Challenger  and Atlanta, and he's been there since 11 of July.  Paire  just got blitzed by Brooksby in Atlanta a few days ago, and comes into this match on a 7 match losing streak (lost 9 of his last 10). Paire has won 2 of the last 16 sets he has played. For me Gojo for the win here.
I like Murray to beat M Ymer quite easily. Not that Murray has been playing matches on hard, but he played Newport and has been in the States before 12 July, while Ymer was playing on clay in Croatia as late as 25th July. It's a long flight, and at least 6 time zones. Having just done similar, it takes at least 5 or 6 days to just reset your internal clock and feel half normal. Then throw in a pretty hot day (expected 32C with 65% humidity) and Ymer could walk into a wall.
I think you also see more effort and commitment from the players in these matches, because the US open is 4 weeks away, and the money from winning a couple of matches there is big motivation. Even getting into the main draw is at least 70% more than winning a tournament like Rhode Island. 

I think you need to factor in travel, and which players have been playing for weeks in the USA, versus those just arriving. Gojowczyk played Newport (grass), but he's played Challenger  and Atlanta, and he's been there since 11 of July.  Paire  just got blitzed by Brooksby in Atlanta a few days ago, and comes into this match on a 7 match losing streak (lost 9 of his last 10). Paire has won 2 of the last 16 sets he has played. For me Gojo for the win here.
I like Murray to beat M Ymer quite easily. Not that Murray has been playing matches on hard, but he played Newport and has been in the States before 12 July, while Ymer was playing on clay in Croatia as late as 25th July. It's a long flight, and at least 6 time zones. Having just done similar, it takes at least 5 or 6 days to just reset your internal clock and feel half normal. Then throw in a pretty hot day (expected 32C with 65% humidity) and Ymer could walk into a wall.
I think you also see more effort and commitment from the players in these matches, because the US open is 4 weeks away, and the money from winning a couple of matches there is big motivation. Even getting into the main draw is at least 70% more than winning a tournament like Rhode Island. 

I think you need to factor in travel, and which players have been playing for weeks in the USA, versus those just arriving. Gojowczyk played Newport (grass), but he's played Challenger  and Atlanta, and he's been there since 11 of July.  Paire  just got blitzed by Brooksby in Atlanta a few days ago, and comes into this match on a 7 match losing streak (lost 9 of his last 10). Paire has won 2 of the last 16 sets he has played. For me Gojo for the win here.
I like Murray to beat M Ymer quite easily. Not that Murray has been playing matches on hard, but he played Newport and has been in the States before 12 July, while Ymer was playing on clay in Croatia as late as 25th July. It's a long flight, and at least 6 time zones. Having just done similar, it takes at least 5 or 6 days to just reset your internal clock and feel half normal. Then throw in a pretty hot day (expected 32C with 65% humidity) and Ymer could walk into a wall.
I think you also see more effort and commitment from the players in these matches, because the US open is 4 weeks away, and the money from winning a couple of matches there is big motivation. Even getting into the main draw is at least 70% more than winning a tournament like Rhode Island. 

I think you need to factor in travel, and which players have been playing for weeks in the USA, versus those just arriving. Gojowczyk played Newport (grass), but he's played Challenger  and Atlanta, and he's been there since 11 of July.  Paire  just got blitzed by Brooksby in Atlanta a few days ago, and comes into this match on a 7 match losing streak (lost 9 of his last 10). Paire has won 2 of the last 16 sets he has played. For me Gojo for the win here.
I like Murray to beat M Ymer quite easily. Not that Murray has been playing matches on hard, but he played Newport and has been in the States before 12 July, while Ymer was playing on clay in Croatia as late as 25th July. It's a long flight, and at least 6 time zones. Having just done similar, it takes at least 5 or 6 days to just reset your internal clock and feel half normal. Then throw in a pretty hot day (expected 32C with 65% humidity) and Ymer could walk into a wall.
I think you also see more effort and commitment from the players in these matches, because the US open is 4 weeks away, and the money from winning a couple of matches there is big motivation. Even getting into the main draw is at least 70% more than winning a tournament like Rhode Island. 

I'm not betting on ranking.
My point is that on a 1 set shoot out, a much higher ranked player, with more experience, more proven (as opposed to potential) ability, who has won the 2nd set and has match momentum, and is serving 1st in the 3rd set should be able to make those advantage's count, and win the 3rd set, more often than losing it.

Cornet - Noskova Prague Open : 8 points win Noskova @ 3.00 Bet365 and 2 points correct score Noskova to win 2 sets to 1 @ 6.50 Bet365.
Last years French Open winner on home ground today will be a formidable opponent today imo.
She's "warmed up" nicely for this tournament with a couple of low level titles recently and I think the bookies have underestimated her chances here.
Good Luck all ?

Its like the tennis gods are just telling me to stop betting. 
How is it even remotely possible that Mlandenovic can serve 21 double faults and still compete. The rain delay really helped her.
Bondar had 7 match points, and could not take one. I didn't see the match but she must have been atrocious. AT one point in this match she was 1.6 to 10.
This match was just a case of BAD versus WORSE.   
Just beyond belief.
KristinaMladenovic AnnaBondár 1 Aces 1 21 Double faults 3 60% First serve % 55% 59% Win % on 1st serve 73% 72% Win % on 2nd serve 44% 5/5 Break points 7/19 1 Tiebreaks won 0 36 Receiving points won 60 100 Points won 110 The stats are so crazy. 
Her opponent wins 10 receiving points for every 6 she wins, yet somehow she wins...
 
 

Its like the tennis gods are just telling me to stop betting. 
How is it even remotely possible that Mlandenovic can serve 21 double faults and still compete. The rain delay really helped her.
Bondar had 7 match points, and could not take one. I didn't see the match but she must have been atrocious. AT one point in this match she was 1.6 to 10.
This match was just a case of BAD versus WORSE.   
Just beyond belief.
KristinaMladenovic AnnaBondár 1 Aces 1 21 Double faults 3 60% First serve % 55% 59% Win % on 1st serve 73% 72% Win % on 2nd serve 44% 5/5 Break points 7/19 1 Tiebreaks won 0 36 Receiving points won 60 100 Points won 110 The stats are so crazy. 
Her opponent wins 10 receiving points for every 6 she wins, yet somehow she wins...
 
 

The more I think about this the less I like my 2:0 sets idea. My feeling is that Krekcikova will win this match. The only possible blip is that she has 1 bad set and blows the bet up. I think I would rather wage 2.5 times more, and give myself the freedom to avoid this scenario.

Just another crazy day. Djere should be walking all over Agamenone. He was 5-1 up in the 1st set tie breaker and managed to lose it.
He is winning his serve games easily and dominating the big Argentinian. He has the momentum and really should go on and win this match.  I look at his serving stats and he is right on his numbers. He is playing OK.
 
Round of 32·Court 1 Live     F. Agamenone 710 2 0 0     L. Đere 68 6 0 0   FrancoAgamenone LasloĐere 1 Aces 3 1 Double faults 4 61% First serve % 69% 64% Win % on 1st serve 69% 48% Win % on 2nd serve 56% 2/4 Break points 4/9 1 Tiebreaks won 0 27 Receiving points won 31 68 Points won 74 9 Games won 12 4 Max games won in a row 3 7 Max points won in a row 5 41 Service points won 43 6 Service games won 8  
Should be a one sided 3rd set at decent odds of 1.25 for him to win

Salkova was actually holding on at the end. Was up easily in the second and then had a battle to close it out. Her opponent was getting better each game played. 3 sets I think she loses.
I think that Krejcikova wins tomorrow. I do like the 2:0 in sets which is priced at 1.4. Lets you win the same as the 1.16 bet but you can risk 2.5 times less to return the same. I think she will play much better ... there were 4 breaks of serve to start today's match

Krejcikova v Blinkova
Krejcikova has a game that beats lower ranked players. As a fav in the last 3 years on hard court she has played 21 players ranked 65 or lower and has won 20 matches. She may start slow here, but the -5.5 handicap is probably the way to go. I just went straight win at about 1.26

Brooksby v. Paire.
Brooksby just has such superior numbers to Paire. The biggest weakness in Paire's game (mental), is his serving. On average he is serving close to 7.5 double faults a match ... and that is almost all Brooksby needs to win comfortably here (Brooksby a very good server serves around 1 double per match). Brooksby has far superior serving stats. The only tricky part of taking the -3.5 handicap is if Paire can keep it close for one set and lose 6-7 (brooksby will win here). That could cost you a bet.
I can get brooksby -3.5 at 1.35 which looks decent to me.

And a really easy win for Krejcikova, who didn't play particularly well. 
Do you want to back somebody for small stakes, and relatively big odds when the outcome is such an unknown? For me it is a definite NO. I would rather be lumping it on a vastly superior player, at much lower stakes, knowing that the game is probably going to be a one-way steam roller. That was a train smash for Blinkova, realistically losing 6-1 6-1 with zero chance of winning. Happy to put 50 units on a game like that, with a 10 unit profit.

Krejcikova v Blinkova
Krejcikova has a game that beats lower ranked players. As a fav in the last 3 years on hard court she has played 21 players ranked 65 or lower and has won 20 matches. She may start slow here, but the -5.5 handicap is probably the way to go. I just went straight win at about 1.26

I also think that Anna  Bondar is a gift price at 1.22 against Kristina Mladenovic. For me an absolute no -contest.
Would go for Bondar -5.5 at odds of 1.7

Great call. In-Albon has terrible serving numbers, and hopefully gets broken multiple more times.

Taking a small/medium bet on Pedro Martinez to beat Jarry. Even money 6-6 first set at beginning of breaker. Martinez technically far better, and Jarry's serve will go off at some stage.

Quite like Salkova to beat In-Albon at 2.70 with Unibet, purely on form and home conditions. In-Albon hasn't won a match in ages, while Salkova had two good wins in the qualifiers against solid opposition. Can see her going one step further.

There are some players in the WTA that you just can't touch. Two of note for me : Elise Mertens and Caroline Garcia. When they win, they just get over the line and when they lose the performance is beyond belief. Today Mertens played a bog standard opponent in Magda Linette. Should be a simple warm up for the next round. Mertens could simply not work out how to win a point behind her serve on the deuce court.  She was so bad it was pitiful.  3rd set she is 2-1 up and serving first (huge advantage in woman's game). Just disintegrates and loses 5 games in a row. Just awful tennis ... and this is a player ranked 25? 
Some bets I do like today
Munar Clar, Jaume Antoni vs Ymer, Mikael  1.3
Cecchinato, Marco vs Poljicak, Mili  1.22
Daniel, Taro vs Korda, Sebastian   1.44
Nakashima, Brandon vs Thompson, Jordan 1.3
Gives almost 2-1 for the quad. A medium sized bet for me. but I'm not getting involved too heavily.
On a day like this where there is not much happening best to chill and not go looking for trouble.