neilovan

When I was a teenager in the late 70's, the Aussie open was nothing. The South African Open was essentially the 4th major. All the superstars came to play in Johannesburg, at Ellis Park.  Jimmy Connors, Rod Laver, Ken Rosewall, Harold Solomon, Brain Gottfried, Vitas Gerulaitis, Guermo Vilas, Bjorn Borg, Arthur Ashe, Pat Cash probably all champions. It cost nothing to go as a kid, and you could watch tennis the whole day for peanuts. It was a big deal!
Today the SA open is garbage. The location, in a lousy area of JHB is dangerous. You could be mugged, robbed and have your car stolen in one afternoon. 
 

I went once, before I went to live in the States. Probably 1993. It was played in an indoor arena somewhere. I watched Gary Muller player someone. Was horrible.  I think it's cooked.

When I was a teenager in the late 70's, the Aussie open was nothing. The South African Open was essentially the 4th major. All the superstars came to play in Johannesburg, at Ellis Park.  Jimmy Connors, Rod Laver, Ken Rosewall, Harold Solomon, Brain Gottfried, Vitas Gerulaitis, Guermo Vilas, Bjorn Borg, Arthur Ashe, Pat Cash probably all champions. It cost nothing to go as a kid, and you could watch tennis the whole day for peanuts. It was a big deal!
Today the SA open is garbage. The location, in a lousy area of JHB is dangerous. You could be mugged, robbed and have your car stolen in one afternoon. 
 

I'm not a great tipster but ...
I definitely think she wins. Bondar has a terrible record coming into this tournament.  Her serve is just poor (at this level), and she is probably gonna be broken at least 5 times. The bet365 2-0 set score for Kudermetova is 1.72 and looks fair to me. I will take her to win in 2 sets on to Djoko to beat Khachanov and Ruud to beat Busta.
I do like Siegmund to beat Samsonova. Siegmund was playing great when Sakkari bailed out of their match. I don't think Samsonova justifies being such a heavy favorite.
Siegmund just has not played but she was in the top 60. Samsonova has odd losses against players like Martic, Brengle, Cornet and  Vondrousova, ad is definitely beatable.

I'm not a great tipster but ...
I definitely think she wins. Bondar has a terrible record coming into this tournament.  Her serve is just poor (at this level), and she is probably gonna be broken at least 5 times. The bet365 2-0 set score for Kudermetova is 1.72 and looks fair to me. I will take her to win in 2 sets on to Djoko to beat Khachanov and Ruud to beat Busta.
I do like Siegmund to beat Samsonova. Siegmund was playing great when Sakkari bailed out of their match. I don't think Samsonova justifies being such a heavy favorite.
Siegmund just has not played but she was in the top 60. Samsonova has odd losses against players like Martic, Brengle, Cornet and  Vondrousova, ad is definitely beatable.

Such a pity the weather in Barcelona is miserable, because at 9 Euro's a ticket, the tennis would just be a brilliant day out.
Will they play another match after this one?
Looking at the Raducanu match. 1st set 6-0 2nd 2-6. Surely they are not having a break before the 3rd set. Must have been on the court for 50 minutes...
 

An interesting day ahead with the potential for plenty of upsets.
Aryna Sabalenka plays Andreescu. Andreescu won't be intimidated here. It is just a question of where her comeback game is at.  I think 2 to 1 on Andreescu is quite generous here, considering Sabalenka's form.
Not an upset here, but Badosa should have too much game for Rybakina. Biggest liability for Rybakina is her movement , which is so poor. I think a regulation win for Badosa here.
I think Lloyd Harris gets past de Minaur. de Minuar has improved, but up against a player with weapons, his game just looks so ordinary (at elite level). Not much difference in the current rankings and I'm somewhat unsure as to how he shows up as such a big favorite.
Was not impressed with Auger-Aliasimme yesterday. He won, but he didn't play particularly well. His opponent just lacked a little belief. His game was so 1 dimensional it was crazy. Auger-Aliasimme hit one drop shot to an opponent who was 4 meters behind the baseline. It was a bore feast. Tiafoe a much stronger opponent, should cause him all kinds of problems.
Not been impressed with Karatsev so far this year. I think he is overplayed. Also, opponents will start figuring out his weaknesses. No place to hide on the tour. Otte has a decent chance here against an opponent who is misfiring.
I have one treble which is Alcaraz, Ruud and Kudermetova all to win. Works out at 7.5 to 10 which is ok.
 

Two upsets that I do like in the WTA tomorrow.
Karolina Pliskova to beat Petra Kvitova
Kvitova definitely not playing anywhere near her form of old. For me a very close match, dominated by serve and 1st strike tennis. 
 
Storm Sanders to beat Raducanu.  Raducanu does not deserve favorite status in any match she plays. Her winning the US open has to be one of sports greatest freak results. Probably rivals Leicester winning the premier league. Raducanu has actually lost the last 5 times she has started a match as the favorite. 
Kostyk ranked 55 (6-2,6-1)  ... Wang ranked 106 ... Kovinic ranked 98  ...  Saville ranked 610  ...  Martic ranked 79.  
 
I think Delbonis runs Fucsovics very close in Barcelona. Delbonis loves the clay, and has been a very tough opponent on the surface. He made 4th round at the French last year, and is probably a better player this year.
 
 

I think Pliskova is also not a good mover on the court. Her game is backing up  a strong serve with a good first strike. It's the problem for woman players who have grown up with a big serve. Most of them move poorly. Average side to side on the baseline, but very poor to the shorter angled ball. As juniors they could just serve people off the court, and  this results in a ground stroke game that is lacking in movement and incredible fitness.
4 players that all fall into the same bracket : Kvitova, Pliskova, Rybakina and Tauson. I exclude Sabalenka and Muguruza because they are very strong, and are better movers that the other 4. Someone like Marketa Vondrousova is a way better athlete than those 4 as well, and definitely moves better too.
The big problem is when someone is serving rockets ... games fly by quickly, and you are constantly trying to win your own serve game. The opponent, who is winning serves easily, will take more risks on your serve game, because they know they can win their own easily. So it is a one-two punch. The flip side is when the big serve goes AWOL, the whole game and strategy goes to pieces (Sabalenka). A bad serving day, and they get demolished.

I think Pliskova is also not a good mover on the court. Her game is backing up  a strong serve with a good first strike. It's the problem for woman players who have grown up with a big serve. Most of them move poorly. Average side to side on the baseline, but very poor to the shorter angled ball. As juniors they could just serve people off the court, and  this results in a ground stroke game that is lacking in movement and incredible fitness.
4 players that all fall into the same bracket : Kvitova, Pliskova, Rybakina and Tauson. I exclude Sabalenka and Muguruza because they are very strong, and are better movers that the other 4. Someone like Marketa Vondrousova is a way better athlete than those 4 as well, and definitely moves better too.
The big problem is when someone is serving rockets ... games fly by quickly, and you are constantly trying to win your own serve game. The opponent, who is winning serves easily, will take more risks on your serve game, because they know they can win their own easily. So it is a one-two punch. The flip side is when the big serve goes AWOL, the whole game and strategy goes to pieces (Sabalenka). A bad serving day, and they get demolished.

Two upsets that I do like in the WTA tomorrow.
Karolina Pliskova to beat Petra Kvitova
Kvitova definitely not playing anywhere near her form of old. For me a very close match, dominated by serve and 1st strike tennis. 
 
Storm Sanders to beat Raducanu.  Raducanu does not deserve favorite status in any match she plays. Her winning the US open has to be one of sports greatest freak results. Probably rivals Leicester winning the premier league. Raducanu has actually lost the last 5 times she has started a match as the favorite. 
Kostyk ranked 55 (6-2,6-1)  ... Wang ranked 106 ... Kovinic ranked 98  ...  Saville ranked 610  ...  Martic ranked 79.  
 
I think Delbonis runs Fucsovics very close in Barcelona. Delbonis loves the clay, and has been a very tough opponent on the surface. He made 4th round at the French last year, and is probably a better player this year.
 
 

Two upsets that I do like in the WTA tomorrow.
Karolina Pliskova to beat Petra Kvitova
Kvitova definitely not playing anywhere near her form of old. For me a very close match, dominated by serve and 1st strike tennis. 
 
Storm Sanders to beat Raducanu.  Raducanu does not deserve favorite status in any match she plays. Her winning the US open has to be one of sports greatest freak results. Probably rivals Leicester winning the premier league. Raducanu has actually lost the last 5 times she has started a match as the favorite. 
Kostyk ranked 55 (6-2,6-1)  ... Wang ranked 106 ... Kovinic ranked 98  ...  Saville ranked 610  ...  Martic ranked 79.  
 
I think Delbonis runs Fucsovics very close in Barcelona. Delbonis loves the clay, and has been a very tough opponent on the surface. He made 4th round at the French last year, and is probably a better player this year.
 
 

That Basilashvili is such a strange player. Can be so good or absolutely awful. Has a similar game to Giorgi in intensity. It's all-in or all-out. I just watch Grigor and he makes me crazy.

That Basilashvili is such a strange player. Can be so good or absolutely awful. Has a similar game to Giorgi in intensity. It's all-in or all-out. I just watch Grigor and he makes me crazy.

That Basilashvili is such a strange player. Can be so good or absolutely awful. Has a similar game to Giorgi in intensity. It's all-in or all-out. I just watch Grigor and he makes me crazy.

Maybe I'm already jumping the gun here, but Smith, to make 8 birdies on a difficult day, is just ridiculous. His round was bookended by doubles on 1 and 18. He won't make those doubles again, but the birdies are interesting and very positive. I think a few things are in Smiths favor.
1) The course just fits the way he hits the ball, and suites his eye.  So a guy like Sheffler, likes to hit the ball left to right. You tee it up on the right side of the box, and hit a power fade down the left side of the fairway. Ball moves right, maybe 10 yards in the air and is fine. Most pro's prefer this shot, because a slight mishit, does not have topspin, and it stays more controlled. But on a hole like #13, you want to hit a drive the other way. Right to left, start it away from the danger, and draw it with topspin round the corner. It then bounces, away from the trees and pine straw (at end of the fairway), and goes further down and around the fairway with the slope. It makes the 2nd shot to the green so much easier. A perfect example of this is Ernie Els who just could not play this hole. He must have butchered it 7 times, probably costing himself 1 or 2 green jackets.
2) Distance control from a pro, who is on his game is crazy good. The scoring clubs (Lob Wedge, Sand Wedge, Pitching Wedge, 9 - 7) are really dialed in. The yardages are perfect. So even if a pro misses the line slightly, you can see the ball strike quality by where the ball lands relative (distance wise) to the hole. Slightly left or right is ok, as long as distance is ok. Don't miss length and accuracy at the same time. That is a bad shot. Smith didn't hit any of those shots. His scoring club play, say compared to Mcillroy, was 5 worlds better. Yesterday, Oosthuizen was striking the ball badly. His distance control, totally off  ...  20 yards short combined with 20 yards long, and sideways.
 3) The Masters course does not really favor incredible driving accuracy. It is not like a US Open layout, where you miss the fairway, you chip it out. Woods won recently, and didn't hit the ball particularly well off the tee. He got lucky a few times, hitting poor drives and emerging unscathed. So a guy like Dustin Johnston, who drives it exceptionally well, does not really get the benefit that great driving accuracy should provide (on this course).
4) This course also does not have a premium on 'approach to the green', that would really favor someone like Colin Morikawa. There are very few holes that demand really difficult 4-6 irons, 225 yards at the green. So a guy like Morikawa, just gets no value, and fewer opportunities, from his ability to hit those clubs exceptionally well. Augusta National is also not a long course, so approach play tends to be made with higher irons, again not favoring a Morikawa type.
5) Augusta is a short game specialists dream. Chipping, bunker play, putting ... tricky up-and-downs will determine the winner here. That is why a guy like Mickelson did so well. Exceptional short game! But it also requires power.
Smith has the required skills to dominate here and win going away. Winning the players in March, I fully expect him to take that confidence and blow the field away over the weekend.

And Musetti just folds up like a deck-chair. Lost his serve 5 times in a row?

Maybe I'm already jumping the gun here, but Smith, to make 8 birdies on a difficult day, is just ridiculous. His round was bookended by doubles on 1 and 18. He won't make those doubles again, but the birdies are interesting and very positive. I think a few things are in Smiths favor.
1) The course just fits the way he hits the ball, and suites his eye.  So a guy like Sheffler, likes to hit the ball left to right. You tee it up on the right side of the box, and hit a power fade down the left side of the fairway. Ball moves right, maybe 10 yards in the air and is fine. Most pro's prefer this shot, because a slight mishit, does not have topspin, and it stays more controlled. But on a hole like #13, you want to hit a drive the other way. Right to left, start it away from the danger, and draw it with topspin round the corner. It then bounces, away from the trees and pine straw (at end of the fairway), and goes further down and around the fairway with the slope. It makes the 2nd shot to the green so much easier. A perfect example of this is Ernie Els who just could not play this hole. He must have butchered it 7 times, probably costing himself 1 or 2 green jackets.
2) Distance control from a pro, who is on his game is crazy good. The scoring clubs (Lob Wedge, Sand Wedge, Pitching Wedge, 9 - 7) are really dialed in. The yardages are perfect. So even if a pro misses the line slightly, you can see the ball strike quality by where the ball lands relative (distance wise) to the hole. Slightly left or right is ok, as long as distance is ok. Don't miss length and accuracy at the same time. That is a bad shot. Smith didn't hit any of those shots. His scoring club play, say compared to Mcillroy, was 5 worlds better. Yesterday, Oosthuizen was striking the ball badly. His distance control, totally off  ...  20 yards short combined with 20 yards long, and sideways.
 3) The Masters course does not really favor incredible driving accuracy. It is not like a US Open layout, where you miss the fairway, you chip it out. Woods won recently, and didn't hit the ball particularly well off the tee. He got lucky a few times, hitting poor drives and emerging unscathed. So a guy like Dustin Johnston, who drives it exceptionally well, does not really get the benefit that great driving accuracy should provide (on this course).
4) This course also does not have a premium on 'approach to the green', that would really favor someone like Colin Morikawa. There are very few holes that demand really difficult 4-6 irons, 225 yards at the green. So a guy like Morikawa, just gets no value, and fewer opportunities, from his ability to hit those clubs exceptionally well. Augusta National is also not a long course, so approach play tends to be made with higher irons, again not favoring a Morikawa type.
5) Augusta is a short game specialists dream. Chipping, bunker play, putting ... tricky up-and-downs will determine the winner here. That is why a guy like Mickelson did so well. Exceptional short game! But it also requires power.
Smith has the required skills to dominate here and win going away. Winning the players in March, I fully expect him to take that confidence and blow the field away over the weekend.

Some matches that I like today. 
Coria v Gasquet.  Coria will have some characteristics in his game, that you can derive from his homeland. Probably grew up developing and playing game at sea level and on clay court. SO you know, solid, if unspectacular serve, fit and strong, clay court specialist. On a grass court  he gets blitzed, but on clay, a very tough opponent. I expect him to triumph over Gasquet here.
In the WTA I think Irena Bara beats Rakhimova. Rakhimova young, and not in great form, losing 3 of her last 4 tournaments in 1st round. For me a close match.
Musetti v Laslo Djere. Djere has given Musetti a lot of problems in games they have played. The last 3 meetings have all gone 3 sets and been very close. I don't think there is much between these two, but Musetti definitely has clay court pedigree. I expect a tough match going over 22.5 games  (1.9). 
My two low priced bets would be Jabeur to beat Vandeweghe and Fritz to beat Garin. Will take them as a quad with Musetti over 22.5 games, and Coria win.
WIll take Bara as a small stake single.
 
 
 

Some matches that I like today. 
Coria v Gasquet.  Coria will have some characteristics in his game, that you can derive from his homeland. Probably grew up developing and playing game at sea level and on clay court. SO you know, solid, if unspectacular serve, fit and strong, clay court specialist. On a grass court  he gets blitzed, but on clay, a very tough opponent. I expect him to triumph over Gasquet here.
In the WTA I think Irena Bara beats Rakhimova. Rakhimova young, and not in great form, losing 3 of her last 4 tournaments in 1st round. For me a close match.
Musetti v Laslo Djere. Djere has given Musetti a lot of problems in games they have played. The last 3 meetings have all gone 3 sets and been very close. I don't think there is much between these two, but Musetti definitely has clay court pedigree. I expect a tough match going over 22.5 games  (1.9). 
My two low priced bets would be Jabeur to beat Vandeweghe and Fritz to beat Garin. Will take them as a quad with Musetti over 22.5 games, and Coria win.
WIll take Bara as a small stake single.
 
 
 

I'm not touching Kyrigos. I think he has a lot of talent, but is just too prone to irrational behavior. Just too emotional for me, and I would rather try elsewhere. My feeling is that he will already be bored and looking forward to going home. He's been on the road at least 6 weeks. Would not surprise me if he tanked this match.
Bizarre that both longshots won;
Dzumhur to beat Vavassori and Kotov to beat Versasco 

I wish I could give you a definitive answer. Wolf has been losing matches, most of them quite close. Brooksby on a better run of form. This was just a very small bet for me but I still have 2 legs outstanding (Brooksby and IPL today);
 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.19
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia 2-Way Odds (12) - 2WON1.39
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra   2-Way Odds (12) - 2VOID1.30
Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Two way - 2WON1.65
Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Two way - 12.05
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal FC Totals 2.5 - oWON2.1
 
Looking at today's matches I see squat.  Software liked Brengle to beat McNally and Riske to beat Navvaro. If I had to pick a couple of matches to go with those two I would be going with Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul to also win. 
If I had to go long shots, I would be looking at Dzumhur to beat Vavassori and Kotov to beat Versasco (both suspended from yesterday - Marrakech). I would be betting both of these as singles, and I think at least one of them wins.
 
 

I wish I could give you a definitive answer. Wolf has been losing matches, most of them quite close. Brooksby on a better run of form. This was just a very small bet for me but I still have 2 legs outstanding (Brooksby and IPL today);
 
Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.19
Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia 2-Way Odds (12) - 2WON1.39
Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra   2-Way Odds (12) - 2VOID1.30
Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Two way - 2WON1.65
Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Two way - 12.05
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal FC Totals 2.5 - oWON2.1
 
Looking at today's matches I see squat.  Software liked Brengle to beat McNally and Riske to beat Navvaro. If I had to pick a couple of matches to go with those two I would be going with Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul to also win. 
If I had to go long shots, I would be looking at Dzumhur to beat Vavassori and Kotov to beat Versasco (both suspended from yesterday - Marrakech). I would be betting both of these as singles, and I think at least one of them wins.
 
 

Finally, one of runners quits when behind. Thanks Kvitova.

Finally, one of runners quits when behind. Thanks Kvitova.