Bronxie

Liberty Lane is drifting in the market. Pretty sure it was 4/1 last night but now out to 13/2 in places and is still on my short list with seemingly everything in it's favour - CD winner, won on soft, goes well after a break, yard in tremendous form, lightly raced 4 year old
EW shots ...... 
Thunderball 12/1
The Gatekeeper 14/1
I see that Chazzesmee is the new favourite having won the Irish Lincoln 5 days ago but at 9/4 he's not for me !. The time of the Irish race was not good and 5 days isn't much time to recover from a competitive handicap on heavy ground, plus the travelling ...... I'd be happy to take him on (and watch him scoot home by 5 lengths !). His price has collapsed overnight so somebody fancies him !
Win - Liberty Lane
EW - Thunderball, The Gatekeeper
Lay  - Chazzesmee

Congrats to the winners & the 28 in profit over the 4 days , PL for running comp & @MCLARKE for his collating skills .

Can't believe I have won this. It was great fun. Golden ace was the one that really clinched it for me
Thanks for your hard work in organising it all.

I would normally leave it until the morning but on Grandad duties and haven't got her into the horses yet. She's not 2 yet so plenty of time !

@Zilzalian about time you got your finger out always tomorrow 😂😂

That's a nice surprise ....returns 205.00

CORAL CUP
Horses that are carrying a similar weight to last time have a good record. Those that are carrying a weight within 2 pounds of its last run have a record of 6 wins from 57 runners with a profit of 119 points. The remainder have 4 wins from 198 runs with a loss of 124 points.
They should also be running within 1 length of their last race. These horses have a record of 7 wins from 94 runs with a profit of 72 points.
This leaves LUCKY PLACE at 25/1 and DA CAPO GLORY at 33/1.
7 to 9 years old have the best record with 8 wins from 129 races and a profit of 93 points. 
This leaves DA CAPO GLORY at 33/1 with UNIBET (5 places)
 

CHAMPION CHASE
The record of short price favourites in this race is poor. There have been 6 horses with forecast odds of evens or less and only 1 has won. It may be worth taking on EL FABIOLO.
It is best to have had a decent rest from the last run. Those horses that last ran between 46 and 95 days ago have a record of 9 wins from 45 runners with a profit of 40 points. The remainder have 1 win from 41 runners with a loss of 39 points.
The horse should have had a good run last time. My definition of a good run is that the horse finished in the top third of the field. These horses have a record of 9 wins from 42 runs with a profit of 38 points.
4 of the last 10 winners had their last race at Ascot and 2 at Cheltenham. From 22 runners the profit was 37 points.
The only horse to pass all these tests is ELIXIR DE NUTZ, available at 28/1. He beat JONBON last time. JONBON was priced at 7/2 before he was withdrawn from todays race.

Sleepy 20/1 e/w 👍

Ascot
Fergus Gregory rode well in Sean Bowen's absence for Olly Murphy and has partnered three winners and a second from five mounts in the past fortnight.
He heads to Ascot for one ride on last-time-out winner Rambo T in the 2m3½f handicap hurdle (2.25). The seven-year-old has finished out of the first three just three times from ten starts over hurdles and arrives on the back of a career-best performance at Newbury in December.
 
Haydock
Nicky Richards has a 17 per cent strike-rate at the Merseyside track, while Sean Quinlan operates at a 13 per cent course strike-rate. Their record improves to 30 per cent when teaming up at Haydock.
Quinlan's sole mount is the Richards-trained Famous Bridge in the feature Virgin Bet Grand National Trial (3.15). The progressive chaser made a bad mistake early on before being pulled up at Doncaster last time but is 2-2 at this track, including when winning the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase on his penultimate outing.
 
Wincanton
Ned Fox gets on particularly well with Eceparti, boasting a 2-2 record on the ten-year-old. The Venetia Williams-trained chaser is 3-32 when partnered by other riders.
Fox won two races at Chepstow aboard Eceparti earlier this season, and bar a below-par run in the Sussex National at Plumpton last time, he has been in good form this campaign. He drops from 0-135 company to a 0-110 in the 3m1f handicap chase (4.17) and should be in the mix with Fox claiming 5lb from the topweight.
 
Gowran Park
Jockey Liam Quinlan has enjoyed four winners from 11 rides at Gowran Park in the last five seasons at a 36 per cent strike-rate.
He rides the John Ryan-trained Lucid Dreams in the feature Red Mills Chase (3.27). The nine-year-old has a fair amount to find on ratings with the market principals but is a course and heavy-ground winner and could pick up the pieces if Saint Sam or Riviere D'Etel underperform.
 
Newcastle
Linda Perratt and Jonny Peate have a 38 per cent strike-rate when teaming up at this all-weather track and they combine with last-time-out winner Trais Fluors in the mile handicap (6.00).
Trais Fluors gained a second win from five starts over course and distance since joining Perratt when scoring by half a length last time. This looks a more competitive race but he has each-way claims off a low weight.
Wolverhampton
Charlie Fellowes is 3-3 in the last fortnight and saddles the in-form Bradman in the opening 1m4f three-year-old handicap (4.40).
This is a step up in class for Bradman, who has form figures of 112 in Class 5 and 6 handicaps on his last three starts, but he could have more to offer over this trip and is receiving 19lb from main market rival Majed despite racing from 4lb out of the handicap.

Won. BSP 3.80
55 from 211, LSP 55.24

My stats based on the last 9 runnings.
1st last time, 0 from 51.
Last ran 17 to 48 days ago, 7 from 85, LSP 188 points. Remainder 2 from 97, LSP -81 points. 
This reduces the field of 25 to 5
LOOKAWAY 11/1
NORMAN FLETCHER 25/1
OUR CHAMP 33/1
YORKSEA 33/1
KAMSINAS 22/1
Forecast odds 16/1 to 33/1, 5 from 180, LSP 172 points.
This removes LOOKAWAY and KAMSINAS.
Age 5 or 6, 7 from 107, LSP 144 points.
This removes KAMSINAS.
Bred in Ireland, 3 from 66, LSP -19 points.
This leaves NORMAN FLETCHER at 25/1 WH 7 places
 
 

Owe you a pint or three. Legend, thank you!

well done pal "be lucky"

Owe you a pint or three. Legend, thank you!

Owe you a pint or three. Legend, thank you!

Owe you a pint or three. Legend, thank you!

Owe you a pint or three. Legend, thank you!

Owe you a pint or three. Legend, thank you!

Sam  Brown                                                         3 35 War/         1/40th of a pt ew   16/1                - won
J J Riley                                                                  2 42 Kem/         1/40th of a pt ew   50/1               - won
Volcano                                                                3 00 War/          1/40th of a pt ew   25/1
Mark of Gold                                                       2 42 Kem/         1/40th of a pt ew   40/1
 
 
 
P/L   + 174.10 pts

the roof has just come off the "dog & duck "  😆☘️ as everyone on " j j"  🍻    +
"sam brown" from the clouds  to collect the prize  to ensure it'll be a rare old night at the "duck"
"curry house" and   "cat house" 😻    ☘️🐎

Good run over Christmas now down to 40/1

Often this is in the context of a horse just having won a race and the trainer is celebrating with connections and then someone comes and sticks a microphone under his nose and ask 'where's he going next' and the trainer has to say 'something' ........ so it's generally all cliches. ' He's a nice horse, we thought he had a chance today, jockey gave him a good ride, he might get further, we don't know what's next, we'll get him home and think about it tomorrow'
Also I do think some trainers talk about trips (and going) to big themselves up as the great scientific experts who know everything to within an inch ..... maybe to convince owners that's a lot more complicated than it really is. Gosden is particularly prone to this ....... 'He's won nicely at a mile but 24 hours pouring over his breeding suggests he won't get a mile and 20 yards ...... leave it all up to me, I'm the expert, you just pay the bills'