Fedar

June 17, 2014

Re: Group H - Belgium v Algeria > Tuesday June 17th Belgium are not over-estimated: in fact they are one of the most balanced and top quality teams in the whole tournament, having world class and in-form players at nearly each position. I have been left with the impression in the qualifiers that they control the game pretty well with good possession and stable defense (almost non-vulnerable on counter-attacks). But they don't attack so intensely and rarely win with big margins. Algeria is a decent team, but still nothing special, when they play away from their hot-tempered fans in Algeria. They will surely be more negative today and try to hold the Belgians as long as possible, and Algeria will take a draw with Belgium without hesitation. All in all, I don't think Belgium will miss the opportunity to win and I think the class gap is huge enough in this match. However, I am not touching the handicap, as Belgium are not very prolific and often they prefer to kill of the game tempo after taking the lead, instead of pushing all the way like the Germans would do. Therefore, I am going for the goal market, as I believe the Belgium defense is very solid and Algeria will be as negative as possible. Under 3 @ 1.78 (Marathon) World Cup 2014 Stats: 6Bets, 6 Wins, 0 Losses + 6.51 Units (1 Unit per bet)

June 17, 2014

Re: Group H - Belgium v Algeria > Tuesday June 17th

One thing to keep in mind is that Belo Horizonte has an altitude of 827m. Belguim is mostly a low-lying country and players could be affected by the high altitude.

Around 90% of the population of Algeria is along the coastline, hence, at around 0 altitude. Anyway, 800 is not that much, actually it is above 1,800 when the altitude starts to take some toll, so it shouldn't matter so much.

June 16, 2014

Re: Group G - Ghana v USA > Monday June 16th I have to disagree with the pro-Ghana sentiment. I do respect them a lot for their class and attractive football (tiki-taka style), but I think they are equal with USA in terms of quality, while the Americans certainly have upper hand when considering team spirit and tactical advantage (more mature tactically team and as in every sport - Americans always fight till the end and show the best sports ethics). The US had excellent campaign and they topped very easily a group with Mexico and Costa Rica. The Americans achieved 7 wins out of 10 games - losing only in the extra humid and hot conditions of Honduras and Costa Rica. In recent friendlies they defeated Nigeria and Turkey and showed some good football. They are pressing very fiercely, covering a lot for each other when defending, quickly transforming from defense to attack. Last year in friendlies the US achieved some amazing results: 4:3 over Germany, 4:3 over Bosnia in Sarajevo, 2:2 in Krasnodar with Russia. The Americans have balanced team and they have some very good options on the bench to surprise the Ghanians or to turn the game around - one of the best attackers in Eredivisie- Aron Johanson, experienced forward Chris wondolowski, an excellent midfielder like Graham Zusi... I would price the two teams equally with a little advantage for the USA. USA +0.25 @ 1.83 (SBO)

June 16, 2014

Re: Group F - Iran v Nigeria > Monday June 16th

Iran or Draw @ 2.10 (Marathon)

The worst game of the Mondial, but bet won relatively easy. Nigeria was the better team, but they lacked any urgency or penetration as in almost all of their games in the last two years. Iran are nothing but a negative bus parkers, but it is enough against slow and tactically incapable teams like Nigeria. World Cup 2014 Stats: 5 Bets, 5 Wins, 0 Losses + 5.68 Units (1 Unit per bet)

June 16, 2014

Re: Group F - Iran v Nigeria > Monday June 16th Never really liked this Nigeria team. On paper they should be favorites, but in fact they haven't been playing well for a long time. In the qualifiers they were in an easy group with Kenya, Malawi and Namibia. Nigeria drew 3 of their 6 games and managed to score more than once only in the home game against poor Malawi - 2:0. Later, in the play-off they met Ethiopia - a team who was considered the surprise in Africa, but still one of the underdogs in the continent and the most desired opponent for the playoff. Nigeria won very luckily in Addis Abbaba after Nigerians came from behind in the last 20 minutes of the game after very poor mistakes of the home goal-keeper. Nigeria didn't win any of their 3 pre-World Cup friendlies, drawing twice - with Scotland and Greece, and losing to US. I saw two of these games, and I was virtually unimpressed with the Nigerians. They seem to lack cohesion, play slow football and don't seem to press enough. There are also infos that Nigerians have conflict with their federation about the premium for the World Cup, so supposedly the climate in the dressing room is not perfect. Their coach Stephen Keshi has no experience outside Africa, and has made some controversial decisions in the last two years (like playing some local players instead of European based stars). Iran are nothing special - a typical side which plays negative football, but can defend relatively well. Their coach is Carlos Queiroz - also not famed for his attacking football. Their key danger will be winger Dejagah. I don't consider Iran better than Nigeria, but I think they are similar in quality, or probably just a little worse, but they should have more organized squad and better collective, as their coach is much more experienced, there are no reports for bad climate in the dressing room, and generally they are tactically disciplined unlike most African teams. These factors should make it hard for Nigeria to be such a strong favorite, so I consider Iran or Draw a very good option. Iran or Draw @ 2.10 (Marathon)

June 15, 2014

Re: Group F - Argentina v Bosnia-Herzegovina > Sunday June 15th

Bosnian Team isnt Honduras. You watched them against Ivorians or Mexiko? Bet you didnt. Argentina beat them 2:0 in friendly in January, when Bosnian team was totally out of form, and even then Bosnian team had many chances, they certainly are going to score here, and I wouldnt be putting any money that Argentina can win by more than 1 goal difference.

I did watch this friendly, it was in November, not January. And I don't know what u mean by "Bosnia was totally out of form" - it was just after they already qualified for the World Cup and they didn't seem to be out of form in their group. Anyway, it was Argentina without Messi, Lavezzi and Higuain against full-strength Bosnia. Argentina was completely dominant throughout the whole game, even though the Gauchos were more easy-going and didn't play at maximum effort. The quality gap seemed huge. Bosnia can threaten Argentina, because they are good when going forward, but their defense is simply not capable of dealing well with the Argentinian attack. Their will be goals in this match as Bosnia is a positive team who doesn't park the bus. Argentina&Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80

June 15, 2014

Re: Group E - France v Honduras > Sunday June 15th

So are the Costa Ricans, lol. What I meant is these Central/South American sides are used to the humidity. Used to live in Central America for 2 years so I know what the climate is like there. Try being smart somewhere else. Later

He was right to correct you - generally, South American sides are considered much better than Central American teams (with the exception of Mexico and USA). And France-Honduras play in Porto Alegre, where the temperature for tonight is expected to be 16 degrees Celcius and humidity - 87% (in PAris it will be 91% tonight). So, your arguments are not valid and correct.

June 15, 2014

Re: Group E - France v Honduras > Sunday June 15th I agree with the overall sentiment - France should win easily here. Honduras is not Costa Rica and what I have seen from them so far is primitive football - defend with 11 men, play dirty defending and up-front rely on long balls towards Costly and Bengston. France should have too much for them and I expect them to completely control the middle of the field with the likes of Cabaye, Pogba and Matuidi - all of them with excellent physique to counter the rude play of Honduras, but also far superior technically than their rivals. Up-front Griezman should be able to constantly cut Honduras defense apart with his pace and Giroud and Benzema, despite not in their best form, are still world class players. France -1.5 @ 1.90 for me.

June 13, 2014

Re: Group A - Mexico v Cameroon > Friday June 13th Mexico have had a turbulent campaign, whereas they were on the verge of being eliminated sensationally, when only an extra time goal from US in Panama salvaged Mexico and threw Panama out of World Cup. Mexico changed 4 coaches only within the last year. They suffer from inability to score goals as they failed to score in 5 of their 10 matches in the CONCACAF hexagonal and they scored more than 1 goal only twice. In the recent friendlies, they failed to score in their last two friendlies (Portugal and Bosnia), but scored 3 goals against both Ecuador and Israel. Mexico plays with 5-3-2 with much emphasis on the defense. They have a very balanced team with 17-18 players challenging for a starting place and just several players who are considered firm starters. Although they have many problems scoring goals, in attack they have a rich choice among experienced scorer Oribe Peralta, Man United's Chicarito, Villareal's Dos Santos and one of the best youth talents in America - Raul Jimenez. The main reason why Mexico struggles in attack is that their midfield provides little creativity and dynamics which often makes the star players in Mexico's attack being isolated. Cameroon also had a difficult campaign, marked by inability to score goals. They were lucky in the group stage to get awarded administratively 3 points against Togo (in a game they actually lost on the pitch), otherwise, they might have failed to qualify for the play-offs. Nevertheless, the Indominable Lions were very convincing in the play-offs where they crushed Tunisia. Cameroon normally plays with 4-3-3. They resemble Mexico in the way the struggle to score goals, despite that they have a number of great attackers: experienced Eto'o and Webo, Bundesliga's Choupo Moting and one of the best strikers of French Liga I - Aboubakar. Cameroon's weak point is also the less productive midfield, dominated by players with primarily defensive functions like Mbia and Alex Song. In defense, Cameroon has a number of high quality players, nevertheless, I question a bit their defensive performances, as they conceded some very easy goals in recent friendlies (5 from Portugal and 2 from Paraguay's reserves). Another problem for Cameroon might be the bad microclimate inside the dressing room. All in all, I favor slightly Mexico as they look like more balanced and more stable defensively side. However, at 2.20 they are probably priced correctly. Therefore, I prefer to follow the goal market, as I believe this won't be an entertaining game but rather a tactical battle between two physical sides with less creative midfields. A draw won't be bad result for either team as their main goal will not to lose the opening match, which could put them in almost impossible situation to qualify as they will face Brazil and Croatia, being already 3 points behind the qualification spots. Moreover, the humidity in Natal can play important role and affect the tempo of the game. Under 2 @ 2.05 (Marathon)

June 12, 2014