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Fedar

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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Was it worth to bet on World Cup 2014? It was profitable for me as I recorded 5.58 Units profit (all bets and stats were published by me in the forum). This was my first World Cup as a bettor. Actually, the first big international tournament - as I don't consider "Confederation Cup" as important event and I had just several bets on Euro 2012 (several months after I started betting). I have noticed World Cup betting is a completely different experience than any other competition betting, therefore, this being my first such competition as a bettor, I have done many mistakes I would have avoided if I had the experience with World Cup.

  2. Re: Europa League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Wednesday 16th to Thursday 17th J

    Agree with you mate ' date=but i saw last round in Tippeligaen againts Aalesund , Molde was so tired even they manage to win the match ! StrikerFredik Gulbradsen 11/6 is injured and is in doubt to play Thursday,also a big doubt to play is strikerBjörn Bergman Sigurðarson 11/6 ,while striker Tommy Hoiland 13/3 back to squad after was in loand for Lillestrom and probably he will play this Europa League round! I think Molde win will be a great pick!
    Lisandri, i know you are more into Norwegian football, but since you are Albanian, can you provide some info about Flamurtari?! Petrolul is excellent team and they are performing great in summer prep, and they are full of ambitions to make a break-through in Europe.
  3. Re: Europa League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Wednesday 16th to Thursday 17th J

    Maybe Fedar can share some light over Litex-Diosgyori game. I am one step to place a bet on home win, based on the fact that bulgarian football is stronger than hungarian football. Also I see Litex is very strong on home ground (not loosing a single game in regular season). Diosgyori had some problems last round with very weak Birkirkara from Malta.
    Very difficult call, mate. First, I have absolutely no idea about Hungarian football and about Diosgyori. I am also not sure Bulgarian footie is stronger than Hungarian - the fact is that in the recent years Debreceni eliminated Levski and Litex, in the 1990 MTK eliminated CSKA and I honestly don't remember in my life-time Bulgarian team eliminating Hungarian team. Okay, I agree Ludogorets should be better than any Hungarian team, but not sure about the other Bulgarian teams. Litex simply didn't convince me. First, their coach Balakov was a fantastic player, but I think he is complete joke as a manager and I doubt he changed so much over the past two years (two years ago he was certainly a joke manager). Against Veris, Litex were helped a lot by the red card in the 25th minute. Still, Veris missed absolute sitter to equalize the score in the beginning of the second half, which could have made the task for Litex very very hard. Litex's defense made also several other big mistakes, which went unpunished. These Hungarians should be surely a better team than Veris.
  4. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July

    Santa Coloma's goalkeeperm Casals, doesn't sound particularly confident about tonight's game: "We will take whatever comes our way now," "We are realistic and know the difficulties we are about to face. "Having said that, we are not going to go into the tie with a defeatist attitude. Our plan is to compete to the best of our ability in both games and to make things as difficult as possible for our opponents while trying to get to the second leg with our chances still intact." http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2015/matches/round=2000545/match=2014134/prematch/preview/index.html
    About Santa Coloma-Macabi, I don't know if anyone already remarked this, but the game had to be played in Tel Aviv, but was moved to Andorra, because of the Gaza conflict. This means that with very high likelihood, the second leg will be on neutral venue, instead of Tel Aviv. This could affect to some extent MAcabi's attitude, as now they probably won't have any incentive to "decide everything on home soil".
  5. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July About Malmo-Ventspils: I am not much of a follower of the Swedish league, but I am aware Malmo are very solid. But I happened to follow a bit the Latvia league this year, because of some bets, and I am familiar with Ventspils. The team had just recovered from a huge crisis - they were in win-less run of 7-8 games, which is tremendous for such a poor league like the Latvian, where half of the teams at least are amateur levels. Ventspils recorded two big wins against outsiders in the last 2 games and gave some indications they are out of the crisis, but it is a fact that most of the last two months they played incredibly crappy football.

  6. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July Ludogorets - Dudelange I know Luxemburg teams have improved and Dudelange stunned RB Salzburg a few years ago, but I simply cannot see anything different than big Ludo win. It is not a bet about the Luxemburg champions, it is entirely about Ludogorets Razgrad. They are at the moment one of the strongest teams in the Balkans. They became champions for the third time in a row and this spring managed a 1/8 final for the Europa League. Now their ambition is to attack a place in Champions League and I think they have great chance to achieve this. For the past three years Ludogorets never sold a key player - they kept all their stars and continuously improved their team by buying new quality signings. Their last new signing was a right full-back (the only position they were vulnerable) from Primera Division for more than 1 million euros. So, you see that when a team from the Balkans buys a right back for such money, than they mean serious business. Ludo team is perfectly balanced in each area - great goal-keeper, solid defense, the best pair of holding midfielders in the league, great pace and trickery on the flanks, high class in attack in the face of their topscorer and Slovenia international Roman Beziak, a big squad and a lot of variety for each position. In the summer prep they won each game with big margin and ease, including a 4:2 win over Romanian champions Steaua (Ludo were leading 4:0 before they let two Romanian goals in the end). The most important reason is that this team simply takes every game seriously. There might be different reasons for this. It could be the fact that Ludo have practically two squads of players with equal class, which makes nobody in the team safe for their place, so they give their best in every match. It could be their owner - a self-obsessed and over-ambitious local oligarh who insists on winning every match and puts big pressure on his team. But the fact is that when Ludogorets are in shape, they are probably the safest dog to back in all of European leagues. They just never underestimate opponents and they play bad in the role of a big dog only when they are in a bad shape (usually happens to them in April/May when they are physically exhausted). In the beginning of the season they normally show their best games and I cannot see past a big Ludo win - 4-5 to nil. Ludo -2 EH @ 1.78 (Bwin)

  7. Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Messi winning Golden Ball?!! Did I just stopped to understand the game well or there were actually at least several guys who performed better than him and had bigger impact?! What was actually his impact in knock-out phase, besides one assist to Di Maria?! I would say even if we consider only Argentine players, Mascherano had bigger impact on the team, at least in knock-out games.

  8. Re: Third Place Play-Off - Brazil v Netherlands > Saturday July 12th Definitely value on Brazil here in my view. Tremendous motivation gap between these two teams - Netherlands not needing and not caring about this game, while Brazil needing desperately this match to try to at least a little redeem themselves in the eyes of their nation. Netherlands will be missing Robben, Van Persie and Snejder (they don't want to play in this 3rd place game), which is a huge drop in class. The Dutch will use Depay, Lens and Huntelaar in front, and while Huntelaar still got class, Depay and Lens are in my eyes very over-rated and limited players. Particularly Depay is a guy with awful finishing skills. The Dutch defense has been doing excellent work so far, but this was at the price of utmost physical effort. They were running a lot and covering persistently for each other. I don't think that after 2 consecutive extra times, they will keep even close level of physical effort for a meaningless game. A without top physical performance, the Dutch defense might not be as good and stable. Brazil welcomes back Thiago Silva and probably Willian will be a stiker. I expect a relatively easy Brazilian win. Brazil @ 2.15 (bet365)

  9. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju

    888sport refused to void my bet on the Letix - Veris match. Bastards. I went for under 3.5 total match goals in the end. Reckon it's still doable?
    You can still try it, although tomorrow the weather will be better and it will be played on a better and bigger pitch (national stadium in Sofia). But if you feel uncomfortable without it, you can very easily trade it with another bookie, especially in "live betting".
  10. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju

    Didn't watch the game. But ended 2-0 to Botev and no shots on target for Libertas. +8pts
    Hi, did you have any problem with the pay-off?! I just made account with these guys just for the purpose of this bet (not offered anywhere else, where players from Bulgaria are eligible to register). Placed 300 euros, the bookie took them all from my account and after the game I checked my account and I see that it have calculated the bet as if I had placed only 9.20 euros on it (thus, getting just peanuts). Of course, if the bet was a loser, I am sure they would have kept all the 300 euros for themselves. Totally gutted about it, wrote more about this case in the "Bookmakers" section.
  11. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju Important Info for Litex-Veris: Huge rain in Lovech all day long which continues up till this minute. Not sure if the drainage system of the pitch can withstand so much water force. In mid-May Litex played Levski in the local league under similar conditions (huge rain storm) and the field was in disastrous condition during the game (swimming pool). I heard they made some improvements, but not sure how well they worked on this. Probably unders are good value.

  12. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju

    I'm interested in another Bulgarian team' date=' Litex Lovech are at home and have all to play for as the first leg in Moldavia against Chisinau Veris ended in a goalless draw. Veris is a team who promoted to Moldavian top league just last season, and the season before that were playing in third division, they are debutants on European stage this year and holding Litex to a draw in the first leg is already a great success for them. Looking at the stats for that match Veris had only one shot on target-two off, while their keeper had 10 saves and Litex had nine more shots off target. Looks like Litex had dominated in that game and I fully expect them to come on top at home. Match offers some good betting opportunities and Marathon have them at 2,48 to Win To Nil. Few other firms go above 2,50 on -2 EH and all of that looks great value to me. Litex had joint-best attack in Bulgarian league last season and their defensive record is pretty solid, especcialy at home. Im really tempted to bet on Litex, but would like to hear Fedars insights and opinion first, before making a move.[/quote'] Yeah, I was thinking about this one, too. The first game wasn't broadcasted but I read reports that Litex had big domination. Ever since their current owner took them in 1996, Litex have been among the top 3 Bulgarian teams. However, they missed twice in a row Euro football, mainly because they tried to promote more players from their youth academy. Last season, however, they made more expensive selection and bought some high quality players, which helped them qualify for EL. This summer, they managed to steal two of the best players of CSKA Sofia - defender Mendy - the best defender in the league, and winger Omar Kossoko - a good and technical player. It seems that both fitted very well in their team. So, Litex have high quality players, especially in attack: very powerful Colombian striker Jordan (had excellent season with them), Albanian winger Vayushi (one of the best in the league), newly signed Kossoko and the technical Colombian winger Asprilla. They are a bit dodgy in the midfield where they don't have very creative players. Anyway, I would be a bit cautious here. I don't know how well this Litex team will click in Europe. Plus, these Moldavians shouldn't be underestimated. You wrote they come from 3rd division and promoted quickly to the 1st, then qualified for Europe. Exactly the same happened with Bulgarian Ludogorets Razgrad. This means that this team has money and ambitions, and this is what matters most in Eastern European football. I check their results in the Moldavian league and they look very solid. From Novermber till now, they have lost JUST ONE football game - 1:2 away to local superpower Sheriff Tiraspol for the cup (90th minute goal for Sheriff). They drew with Sheriff recently for the league. So, this team obviously can come close in class to Sheriff. And I believe Sheriff are equal to Litex in quality. So, current prices (1.60 for handicaps) are risky in my view.
  13. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju

    While I am not absolutely confident about a Botev clean sheet as in the first match' date=' the odds of 1.80 represent a lot of value. I would say that under the current circumstances the chance of that happening is 80% which is 1.25 odds-wise.[/quote'] Spot on! Everything can happen in football, La Fiorita can score some bizarre goal from set piece or Botev - now that they don' have money - might decide to earn some easy cash. But 1.80 is clear and big value and indeed the real price shouldn't be more than 1.20-1.25. Of course, no need to bet houses and mortgages on that, just a normal value bet. And Botev still keep their defenders and their goal-keeper, who are very good and among the best in the league (kept twice in a row clean sheet on a visit against Ludogorets, who have formidable attack for the Balkan standards).
  14. Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

    Brazil to get more yellows @ 2.05 (Marathon)
    After it was 0:5 in the 29th minute, it was clear that such a bet was already just a gamble, but it luckily won in the end. I still believe it was good value, and if the game was more normal, it would have landed. About the game - credit to Germany for finally giving up the boring and predictable Guardiola tiki-taka and going back to Heynkes "blietzkrieg" football, but I still think it was mainly Brazil being terrible, rather than Germany being so outstanding. It was clear before the game to all knowledgeable in football that Germany was better in every line and the only thing that Brazil could offer to this game were set pieces and passion. Hence, the smart thing for Brazil to do was to sit back, try to kill off the game rhythm, keep the full-backs mainly in their zone to protect them (instead, Marcelo was rushing forward as an attacker), play the hardworking and good in defense Willian, instead of the lazy and clumsy Hulk, etc., etc....Brazil did just the opposite and was severely punished. After the second goal, I felt the Brazilians were in complete and utter "zombie" state of mind, and under such conditions, even a team like Algeria could have crushed them. World Cup 2014 Stats: 33 Bets, 21 Wins, 11 Losses, 1 Void + 7.60 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  15. Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

    Recalling the speculations pre-WC98 final, France vs Brazil. Back then, Brazil were favourite to win the trophy but ended up losing the final in bizarre fashion. Speculations had it that too much bets were placed on Brazil in that game, therefore Brazil were ''told'' not to win.
    Lol, I heard a lot about this back then in my country Bulgaria, but never thought this conspiracy rumor has gone viral all over the world. It was just something that happens on a regular basis in football - the technically better team is being tactically and physically outwitted by the other side, who wins by using counter-pressing football. Just remember Real-Bayern, as well as all the wins of Mourinho against Barcelona.
  16. Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

    These handicap markets are dangerous as Germany may get 2 yellow meaning you will need Brazil to get 3 to win. I've seen many matches where referees will give a yellow to one team and then when the other team does a challenge maybe not so dangerous' date=' they get a yellow as well to make it look like the ref is being impartial. [b']The Brazil over 1.5 yellows at 1.83 at bet365 may be safer option in my opinon
    I must agree with you. If I hadn't already placed my bet, I would have probably taken this. Hard to imagine it will finish with 1 yellow for Brazil and 0 for Germany.
  17. Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July HB - Lincoln Red Imps First match finished 1:1 and now the Gibraltaran debutants are set to travel to the Faroe Islands for the return leg. It is hard to judge Gibraltaran teams as there's very little basis for comparison. They certainly showed they are above San Marino levels, but probably not better than Andorrans (and certainly below Malta and Luxemburg). I believe there might be value on HB handicaps. Faroe teams in general and HB in particular are strong at home. For instance, in their last two CL campaigns, HB defeated Malmo with 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Red Bull Salzburg. The first leg in Gibraltar seems to have been equal in terms of performance, but despite the home advantage, Lincoln also had the benefit to play in very hot conditions, which must have troubled the visitors. Weather in Torshavn will be entirely different tomorrow: around 10 degrees and light rain. In similar circumstances, last year Faroe champions Streymur drew in Andorra - 2:2, but then crushed their opponents at home with 5:1. Of course, we speak for different teams, but probably it is a proof of the very solid home advantage of Faroe teams against other minnows. It is an interesting fact that Gibraltar national team played Faroe in Gibraltar several months ago and lost in Gibraltar with 1-4. It is interesting mainly because there are a number of players from HB and Lincoln in both national teams. Even one of the goals was scored by HB topscorer Edmundson. This probably shows the real class difference between the two sides, which was probably mitigated in the heat of Gibraltar. Last but not least, Faroe league is under way, unlike the Gibraltar one which should suggest better fitness. Also, Gibraltar league seems to have been established very recently and they obviously had their first season now. They have played only 14 games for the whole tournament (Faroe league comprises of 27 games per team). HB-1.5 @ 1.98 (Marathon)

  18. Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

    I like the reasoning' date=' but I'm not convinced that this bet is good value, bearing in mind it's a 3-way market (Brazil, equal number, Germany)[/quote'] To be successful such a bet, it needs to land more than 50% of the cases. At least based on preliminary reasoning and argument, this should clearly have more than 50% chance of happening. Normally, before analyzing a game, I have a few possible bets in mind (based on my impressions about the teams involved) and I don't look at the price before I make up my own price, so that I can draw objective comparison. I was thinking about 1.68-1.70 price for such bet, and at 2.05 I am more than willing to take it (of course, it is subjective and personal judgment).
  19. Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

    I believe this is incorrect. My understanding is that all cards were wiped clean at the end of the Quarter Final stage and now no players are on a yellow card.
    That's what I meant, probably my wording was incorrect. The point is that a yellow card here will bring no punishment for the finals, unlike in all previous games, which could affect both players (being one idea more aggressive) and referees (being less tolerant).
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