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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

    Don't miss the statistic fact: In last 6 matches we saw for times 0-0 at Half Time. Even more in all for matches there were 0-0 also in 70' (right now is 70' on both current matches). This is a big deviation as about 65% matches bring at least one goal in first half and 84% of matches bring first goal until 70'.
    These games are completely unrelated to each other. And if you are to analyze a pattern and draw statistical conclusions, you will need a much bigger sample than six games. This has no statistical significance.
  2. Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June I agree with Kev about goals, but my main bet is Colombia to win. They are going to use some of the reserves, but actually we are talking about top players like Carlos Bacca and Jackson Martinez ( and a few others). I can imagine Colombia looking even more dangerous up-front with these guys. I am not worried about possible temptation of Colombians to lose on purpose, because it is very unlikely that they lose the 1st place - they have 4 goals advantage over Ivory Coast and it is not even certain whether Ivory Coast will win their game. Colombians are overall way better, more balanced and more accomplished team than Japan. The Japanese will push forward as they need only 3 points, but their defense is weak and vulnerable, especially in the physical department. Japan do have speed and dynamics in attack, but they do suffer against tough and strong defenders (as seen against Greece, when Japan barely created anything). This is the reason why I prefer straight Colombia win instead of Overs. Another factor to consider is that Colombia is like a home team - there are tens of thousands of their fans on the stands and the previous two games witnessed a yellow sea of Colombians. Colombia @ 2.20 (Bet Victor)

  3. Re: Group C: Greece vs Ivory Coast > Tues 24th June One would assume Greece will have a go at Ivory Coast which should increase the chances for Over 2.5, but after seeing Greek attitude against Japan in a game where they needed to win, I am pretty confident they are going to play in a typical Greek ultra-defensive manner, hoping to score an odd goal from set piece. Against Japan Greece was defending with all men behind the ball and rarely committed more than 3-4 players in Japan's half when making any of Greece's rare attacks. And this was the case not only after the red card, but even before that. Simply put- Greece doesn't take any risks. The full backs are obviously given orders from the coach not to engage in attacks and to leave the defense unprotected - for instance, Halebas is a very active fullback in his team - Olympiacos (made great games against Man United), but with Greece he rarely crosses into the opposition half. In addition, Greeece will be most likely missing Mitroglu, who left injured the pitch, and this guy looks like the only threat up-front, as Samaras looks way too static and also plays simply too deep and far from the penalty area. Greece will wait for some mistake by Ivory Coast and will be heavily reliant on set pieces. Ivory Coast will obviously not take many risks, as well, as they will be happy with a draw. Under 2.5 @ 1.79 (Pinnacle)

  4. Re: Group A: Mexico vs Croatia > Mon 23rd June I can see this game as being quite tight. Mexico are surely very comfortable to play like this: packing their midfield with people and closing down spaces well, relying on their top fitness, the experience and composure of their defense. Meanwhile, Mexicans can be quite dangerous on the break. All in all, Croatia looks like a bit better team, because they have world-class players like Modric, Rakitic and Manzhukic. But Mexico is definitely the more balanced squad, because Croatia looks seriously vulnerable at the back. The defense of Croatia doesn't inspire much confidence and Pletikosa seemed unstable. This could be crucial, given that Mexico can explore empty spaces at the back of Croatia. All in all, I believe that Croatia is not going to take huge risks in the 1st half. Mexico will keep defensive strategy as long as the score is good for them. For this reason I don't believe in a open first half. 1st Half Asian Goal-Line: Under 1 @ 1.80

  5. Re: Group B: Netherlands vs Chile > Mon 23rd June

    Over 2.5 @ 1.80 (bet 365)
    Very bad reading of the game by me. Holland was able to hold comfortably Chile away from their goal for most of the game. Chileans seemed to lack physical power against tall and strong Dutch defenders and holding midfielders, and the speed of the Chilean attack couldn't be explored in the packed space in front of Cilessen. Also Chile didn't really take big risks before the last 20 minutes and Holland didn't want to engage many people on the break, but preferred to keep the three lines of players close together. World Cup 2014 Stats: 14 Bets, 10 Wins, 4 Losses, 1 Void + 6.05 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  6. Re: Group B: Netherlands vs Chile > Mon 23rd June Over 2.5 for me after seeing the line-ups. Both teams are great on the break and most likely there will be all the time one team motivated to chase a goal and push (hence, the other with good chances to hit on the break). I don't rate very high Chile defense as I have seen them perform very poor in the some of the qualifiers and in some of the friendlies (notoriously Egypt, when Salah was toying with them). They are solid when playing tight, but when their team attacks more, the real weaknesses in Chilean defense are exposed. I also don't trust the Dutch defense, consisting of players from Eredivisie (a league, known for its high-scoring games and not that good defenses). I see many guys from Feyenoord in their defense, and Feyenoord had plenty of games this season when they conceded 3+ goals. Over 2.5 @ 1.80 (bet 365)

  7. Re: Group D: Costa Rica v England > Tues 24th June It may sound insane, but i do fancy England to get a relatively easy win here. Nothing to do with the way both teams play, but main reason is different. CR have already qualified and most likely have secured 1st place in the group. The costa ricans played very intense football and they outrun completely Uruguay and Italy (the game against Italy in particular was in very hot and humid conditions). I assume there should be some exhaustion in the team and that they realize that the only chance for CR to pass the 1/8 finals is if CR players run like crazy and give 100% physical effort. So, it doesn't make much sense for them to expend too much energy for a meaningless game against England. I can imagine that Costa Rica without all the running and intense pressure all over the pitch is a much weaker and more manageable team. England will probably try to restore some pride and I see them beating relatively easy a Costa Rica side, thinking only about the 1/8 finals. England @ 1.89 (Pinnacle)

  8. Re: Wimbledon 2014 Guys, I am not a tennis expert, but just realize that Azarenka has almost zero practice since her injury at AO. She just played one game after several months without tennis, which she lost against a mediocre player like Giorgi. Lulic-Baroni now playing her best tennis this season and she is not in her youth, but she still has some good history on grass and maybe backing her to steal a set from Azarenka has some value?!

  9. Re: USA v Portugal > Sunday June 22nd

    BTTS @ 1.80 (bet 365)
    Bet won. Portugal was lucky to score right after the start thanks to awful defending from the US. Later on, Portugal played a very slow, monotonous and impotent football. Ronaldo was obviously not fit and none of the other players in the team stepped up for him - particularly Meireles and Coutinho were very poor and made Portugal midfield look mediocre. Portugal was also unlucky to make two forced changes in the 1st half, one of which was their striker Postiga. USA were the better team throughout most of the game - they showed much more speed, better organization and game plan. USA should have equalized much earlier and totally deserved to win, but a lot of luck for Portugal and a moment of genius by Ronaldo, who delivered amazing cross, denied Americans the deserved win. World Cup 2014 Stats: 14 Bets, 10 Wins, 3 Losses, 1 Void + 7.05 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  10. Re: USA v Portugal > Sunday June 22nd I believe in goals here because we have perfect circumstances coinciding. USA is a good counter-attacking team and today they will get many chances to explore hesitant Portuguese defense, missing Coentrao and Pepe. Portugal still with a lot of class and I expect midfielders like Moutinho and Meireles to step up and control the middle of the pitch, which should provide options for Ronaldo, even if his fitness is questionable. Portugal often starts in a slow manner, but the must-win situation and German shock from 1st round should guarantee some urgency in Portugal's game. BTTS @ 1.80 (bet 365)

  11. Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

    BTTS @ 1.80 (Bet 365)
    Nice and entertaining game in the 2nd half. My impressions from Germany didn't lie - German defense was indeed very vulnerable and lacking concentration and could have easily conceded more than 2 goals. Congrats to Ghana for outstanding performance! World Cup 2014 Stats: 13 Bets, 9 Wins, 3 Losses, 1 Void + 6.25 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  12. Re: Argentina v Iran > Saturday June 21st

    Argentina -2 AH @ 1.92 (Pinnacle)
    Shocking performance from Argentina. No creativity, not enough movement, slow and one-sided attacks, disappointing performance by all the stars, including Messi, who was extremely poor before the extra time when he scored an outstanding goal. Some may argue the Gauchos were trying to conserve energy, but to me they seem to be lacking any team chemistry and their stars are heavily underperforming. Big congratulations for Iran, who had an amazing game. They defended calmly and in very organized way, leaving little space and chances for Argentina. Iran did some very dangerous counters and definitely should have scored a goal in the second half. I think the Persians were denied a penalty as well. All in all, I feel Iran 100% deserved a point at least. World Cup 2014 Stats: 13 Bets, 9 Wins, 3 Losses, 1 Void + 6.25 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  13. Re: Nigeria v Bosnia-Herzegovina > Saturday June 21st

    Under 2.5 @ 1.89 (Pinnacle)
    Bet won. My pick was in big danger in the first half as both teams played very open, the ball almost didn't stay in the middle in the pitch (it was quickly moved from one goal to the other) and both sides felt very vulnerable on the break (not good coverage by the holding midfielders). Bosnia's left full-back was suffering a lot against both Emenike and Musa. Very good scoring chances were missed by both teams, although Bosnia looked sharper in attack (but also poorer at the back). After Odemwinge's goal, Nigeria managed to close the game well. Nigerians were passing the ball conveniently and could have hurt Bosnia with their breaks on several occasions. Bosnia looked totally wasted physically, and surprisingly for me, showed little team spirit, hence they couldn't apply any pressure, but resorted to slow football and monotonous crosses. World Cup 2014 Stats: 13 Bets, 9 Wins, 3 Losses, 1 Void + 6.25 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  14. Re: Nigeria v Bosnia-Herzegovina > Saturday June 21st I fancy Bosnia to win, but I have the feeling that value is gone already. Bosnia are one of the teams with excellent mentality and team spirit. Whenever I saw a game of them, they always run and fought a lot, and always covered well for each other and showed team-play. Moreover, this is the first World Cup for a very proud and hot-tempered nation, and the level of excitement in the country is simply tremendous, so the players feel at the moment like national heroes. Bosnia also have a better coach than Nigeria. Other than these, I think that player-wise, the two teams are very similar in quality. I wrote about Nigeria in my preview before the clash with Iran - they have good players, but a poor coach and not a good team spirit and dressing room climate. They are tactically immature as a team (although many of the players represent top European clubs), and play the typical African slow and predictable football. However, 1.90 is a bit too low, considering one very important factor - a draw is actually a very good result for Bosnia. They play in the last match the poorest team in the group - Iran, where if they win and Nigeria fails to defeat the superpower Argentina - Bosnia will go through. Even if Argentina will use some substitutes in the last game, they are still much classier than Nigeria and shouldn't lose against them. Hence, for Bosnia it is vital that they don't lose this match - because a loss will throw them out theoretically. While a draw will make them favorite to go through at the second place. For all this reasons, I believe in a low scoring game. Under 2.5 @ 1.89 (Pinnacle)

  15. Re: Argentina v Iran > Saturday June 21st It is a boring and predictable tip, but I cannot see past a comfortable Argentina victory with at least 2 goals difference. Iran is simply are very limited team which poses no threat going forward. They could salvage themselves against the slow and predictable Nigerians, but I don't think they can hold the powerful gaucho attack. There could have been potential for lazy Argentina performance (hence, risk for a minimal 1:0 win), had they managed to win comfortably over Bosnia. But their performance in the 1st game was far from their best, so I believe they will be less apathetic today and will get a comfortable win against the worst team in the group. Argentina -2 AH @ 1.92 (Pinnacle)

  16. Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st I think Ghana have excellent chance to score a goal tonight, so I fancy the BTTS. The German defense has shown in the past year that it is always prone to some silly errors, especially in games when Germany is considered big favorite and often there could be some drop in concentration. Just recall the 4:4 against Sweden, the 3:3 friendly against Paraguay in Germany and the 4:3 loss against USA, as well as the recent 2:2 against pathetic Cameroon. I know most of these games were friendlies, but Germany plays very competitive in such games. For Ghana it is match which they cannot afford to lose and as almost certainly Germany will find the net, Ghana will be forced to push for a goal. Unlike African teams like Cameroon, Nigeria and Algeria, Ghana attacks at relatively high pace and shows much more tactical maturity. They have enough class up-front to harm a German defense that might lose concentration at some stages of the games. BTTS @ 1.80 (Bet 365)

  17. Re: Group C - Japan v Greece - Thursday June 19th

    Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (Marathon)
    Lol!!! So far away from the truth - I bet that if this game was played ten times in a row, it would have finished with ten "under 2.5"s and probably at least 8 "under 1.5"s. I can't believe I have been so delusional to bet on goals in Greece's game, thinking that they will open up, because they need to win. They played with all men in their half all the match - even before the sending off, Greece had parked two buses in front of their goal. Probably somebody have fooled them that "0:0" gives 3 points...
  18. Re: Group C - Japan v Greece - Thursday June 19th I have to agree with Kev here. It is generally hard to bet goals when Greece is involved, but i believe this match will have very different complexion. Draw is simply suicidal for the Greeks as they have very bad goal difference. Japan might be a little more content with a draw, as they play Colombia which won 99% the 1st place in the group and might put on many substitutes, but I don't think it is in the mentality of the Japanese to play for a draw. Greece defense is too old and slow and might suffer a lot against a very mobile Japanese teams which showed some tremendous ball control and passing skills in the friendlies and in the 1st half against Ivory Coast. On the other hand, the Japanese were simply overwhelmed physically by Ivory Coast and I believe Greece will also have huge advantage in this respect. Japanese defense is also not very good and hopefully the Portuguese coach of Greece will not field the old Gekas but will use the sharp young star Mitroglu. Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (Marathon)

  19. Re: Group D - Uruguay v England > Thursday June 19th Both teams with sort of a must-win situation. A failure to win means that Uruguay will be out of the tournament in 99%, while a draw for England will still keep them in the game, but will complicate their situation a lot as they will be in a must win situation against the tough Costa Rica. England with a lot of pace, dribbling and threat up-front with players like Sturridge, Sterling and Rooney, which should easily expose of poor Uruguay defense, which will miss their regular CB Lugano. Uruguay with Suarez back and in a situation where they are desperate for goals. I think they will have more space than against the tightly packed Costa Rica and the trickery of Suarez could be the important factor in carving up the England defense. BTTS @ Over 2.5 @ 2.05 (bet 365)

  20. Re: Group A - Brazil v Mexico > Tuesday June 17th

    Brazil -1.25 @ 1.90 (bet365)
    Poor choice and my first loss on the Mondial. Brazil dominated and Ochoa made some amazing saves, but overall Mexico deserved the draw with better team-play and more movement off-the-ball. Even a win for the Mexicans wouldn't have been shocking. Brazil seemed to me to lack leadership and they also seemed content with the draw as it guarantees passing the group and earning first place. World Cup 2014 Stats: 6Bets, 6 Wins, 1 Losses, 1 Void + 5.51 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  21. Re: Group A - Brazil v Mexico > Tuesday June 17th Brazil didn't play well against Croatia but still passed their first and very important test (with the help of the ref). However, tonight I think Brazil will put on a much more convincing performance. First of all, the pressure upon them will be much less, compared with the opening game. In general, Brazilians play very well against American teams in World Cups (except for the rivals Argentina). Brazil suffered against Croatia and Serbia, which both have very technical midfielders who can keep the ball well and at many moments can outperform technically the Brazilian midfield. Thus, the deep and fierce pressure of Brazil (at least against Croatia) was managed by the opposition which frustrated Brazilians and disrupted their tempo. As I mentioned before Cameroon - Mexico, Mexico's weakest link is the midfield. It comprises more limited and defensive players with less ability to control and distribute the ball. Which means that Mexico might lose the ball much more easily than Croatia when being pressed up by the Brazilians, which could result in intense attacking pressure by the home team and keeping the ball for longer periods in dangerous zones before the Mexican goal. Brazil -1.25 @ 1.90 (bet365)

  22. Re: Group H - Belgium v Algeria > Tuesday June 17th

    Under 3 @ 1.78 (Marathon) World Cup 2014 Stats: 6Bets, 6 Wins, 0 Losses + 6.51 Units (1 Unit per bet)
    2:1 final score, bet VOID. I feel the bet was closer to winning than losing, given the very slow tempo and lack of good scoring chances. Of course, in the end Belgium could have scored some on the break and make the bet a loss. Congrats to the guys who have backed Algeria on the handicap, because they seem to have read the game very well. Although, with different line-up, Belgium could have looked differently and been much more dangerous. I feel that Wilmots made some cardinal mistakes by playing the mediocre and predictable winger Chadli, instead of two world class players like Mertens and Mirallas. Another big mistake was using against the packed Algerian defense just one powerful attacker - Lukaku, backed from behind by the small and non-physical De Bryuine. When the strong and tall Fellaini entered and backed up Origi up-front, Belgium was way more dangerous. World Cup 2014 Stats: 6Bets, 6 Wins, 0 Losses, 1 Void + 6.51 Units (1 Unit per bet)
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