Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: Liverpool v Ludogorets Razgrad > Tuesday September 16th Why so early?! So many things could happen before the opening day of CL. Anyway, I don't think that Ludogorets will be attack-minded. Being attack-minded in A PFG doesn't mean you gonna be attack-minded at Anfield. For all that matters, Ludo had parked the bus against Steaua in Bucurest, so there is not a single reason to believe they will choose a different approach at Anfield. If this game doesn't end with -2.5 handicap covered by Liverpool, it will be huge surprise for me. Ludo did very well in the last year, but this is entirely different level. The difference between playing low motivated middle-class teams in Europa League, and playing a top Premier League team in Champions League is tremendous. From all the European experience of Ludogorets in the last year, the opponent that was most similar to playing Liverpool, was Valencia in the 1/8 final of EL. Valencia completely and easily schooled Ludogorets in Sofia - they won 3:0 despite playing for 70 minutes with man less on the field and they were in complete control of the game all over the pitch. Also the CL qualifier against Basel last summer can be used as a point of reference - whenever Basel raised the tempo, they quickly outplayed Ludogorets and scored a few goals. Both Valencia and Basel are below Liverpool's level, so the gap here will be even bigger. This is the return of CL to Anfield after 5 year exile. The motivation of the home team will be 100% and this is very bad news for Ludo, because in other circumstances, they could have escaped with more respectable defeat, but now it is going to be a very long night for the Bulgarian team. Very huge factor here is that one of the best players of Ludo - their goalkeeper - is suspended. His substitute Chvorovich is a joke of a goal-keeper - although he starts only against weaker teams and for cup games, he always finds a way to concede a ridiculous goal. If the regular keeper Stoyanov was available, this would have meant a guaranteed 3-4 big saves for Ludo at least. With Chvorovich in goal, it is guaranteed that there would be at least 2-3 big blunders and gifts to Liverpool. All in all, I think Ludo will be a perfect option to make money against. I can hardly see how can they escape hammering at Anfield.
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Re: UEFA Champions League Qualifiers > August 26th & 27th Are Celtic at the moment searching deeply into Maribor's team data and suspension records?! :lol
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Re: UEFA Europa League > August 20th & 21st I like also Quarabag at home against Twente. Dutch football is deteriorating a lot in the last years. Only Ajax keep some level, the other teams worsened too much in European competitions. Twente again sold their star players this summer - Dushan Tadic and Promes. The start of the new season for the team has been poor. Overall, they are young and inexperienced team. Quarabag has seen rapid improvement due to large investment in the team. Especially at home, they are very strong and have turned their stadium into a fortress. Last round they defeated RB Salzburg, which is way stronger than Twente. In the past years they have a number of strong European performances at home. The stadium will be full and Quarabag welcomes back their superstar - Brazilian Reynaldo. Quarabag @ 3.25 (Pinnacle)
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Re: UEFA Europa League > August 20th & 21st
I have to disagree with some of your points. First, Mutu is not the star of Petrolul - he is just the most known name. Players like Tamuz (former top scorer of Hapoel Tel Aviv), Albin and Texeira are much more important for the team. Second, saying that Dinamo value is twice as big as Petrolul is very speculative. I am very familiar with both teams and don't see any value gap between them and I think that overall Petrolul has much more balanced squad. They have a number of very good players, who can be top quality in the Croatian league, for instance: Juan Albin- former Espanyol and Getafe, excellent attacking midfielder; Toto Tamuz - he was the best striker in the Israeli league, which is stronger than Croatian; Felipe Teixeira - former WBA, probably one of the best midfielders in the Romanian league; Marinescu - very experienced and quality midfielder; Geraldo Alves - excellent defender, one of the best in the Romanian league...... Dinamo also has some very good players like Soudani, Machado, Wilson Eduadrdo etc....But they are not balanced - their defense is poor - the center defense pair consists of old and slow like an elephant Simunic and very inexperienced Simunovic. Petrolul is much better in this department. Also, Dinamo coach is a joke. He is the brother of the owner and he's got no coaching experience whatsoever, I am not sure he got a license even. His only qualification is being a brother to the owner. Dinamo last year in Europa League were the worst team in their group. I remember our local Ludogorets literally tearing them apart in both games. Unless, Dinamo has become a lot better than 8-9 months ago, they will stand no chance. Last but not least, Petrolul home ground is very tough place to visit. Full stands, fanatic support, fierce pressure from the home team from the start.Just to add something from a different POV on this one... Dinamo (Z) players are almost twice the worth of Petrolul squad. It doesn't say much, but there is a difference in class. If AaB didn't played shockingly good in Zagreb - Dinamo would be now in the Champions League play-offs. Petrolul is a level below. A. Mutu, the star player of Petrolul is 35 and really not in the form of his life. Also, he is maybe moving to Fiorentina so maybe his mind won't be in this match. The things moving the scale in Petrolul's advantage are a sold-out stadium and the 2:0 win in friendly match two months ago. Petrolul may have the advantage in the first leg, but the price of 2.2 is rather short, all things considered. -
Re: UEFA Europa League > August 20th & 21st Sociedad - Krasnodar Krasnodar have been in top form for many months already. The team at this moment and this condition is probably even a little better than Zenit Petersburg. They are hungry for European tournaments glory, because they don't experience European footie regularly. Real Sociedad is still in summer preparation, with just two official games so far - the previous leg against Aberdeen. They didn't look convincing at all in both games. The team is still not at their best physical and fitness condition. Also, the motivation of teams from Primera to play in EL is always questionable. Krasnodar DNB @ 3.0 (bet365)
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Re: Club Friendlies 2014
Game is cancelled due to rainstorm.Manisaspor - 1 @ 1.90 - bet365 V Kocaelispor. Taking a stab here but Kocaelispor are listed as a 2. Liga side on Soccer way but as far as I can tell they were relegated from the 3. Liga to the amature Turkish leagues at the end of last season so not quite sure why they're listed in the 2. Liga. Transfermarket.com have them as losing 23 players in 2014/15 too, and only signing 5. Manisaspor play in the Turkish second league and seem a lot more stable looking at both clubs. -
Re: Bulgaria: 2014-15
It doesn't really works this way. Last year Ludogorets struggled a lot against Botev even with their best eleven. They could barely score a goal against them. And even if Botev is weakened, their defense and keeper are practically the same. Also it is important who will play for Ludogorets. I think they will surely rest their regular center backs and probably one of their fullbacks, as the guys were carrying some injuries and they won't risk them before CSKA and Steaua. So, they will play in the back most likely with very risky guys like Mantula and Choko. Also, their second goalkeeper Chvorovich is very bad and a big liability. I would also have second thoughts about backing Ludogorets when this clown is at goal.It doesn't really matter if Ludogorets will rotate or not. Ludogorets's second best 11 is better than any team in Bulgaria at the moment and miles better than Botev's 11. Ludogorets -1.5 AH all the way. -
Re: Bulgaria: 2014-15
I have to warn you that Ludogorets have much more important games in the next few days - they play league leaders CSKA on Saturday and then go to Bucuresti to meet Steaua in Champions League qualifiers. I seriously doubt they were going to spend much energy tonight for a meaningless game. Also the heat at the moment is just terrible - it is close to 40 degrees and is hardly possible to breath. Last Super Cup Ludogorets failed against Beroe.... I have the feeling that value lies with the team from Plovdiv, but still, good luck with your bet.Ludogorets-Botev Plovdiv, Supercup Botev Plovdiv lost Anicet, Benga, Younes, Luchin, Curtean, Pedro, Sprockel, Minev, Kortzorg (important defenders and their best goal scorers) due to financial problems, so i dont think they can compete with a ludogorets side today. They lost in Europaleague to St Pölten, a team from austrias second league (i am from austria, and i know how shitty St Pölten is, and i watched Botev Plovdiv play even worse). ludogorets owners only want one thing, and that is winning titles. they have by far the most expensive team in bulgaria (36Mio €, CSKA Sofia is second with 13,3Mio, Botev is around 9Mio worth). at bet 365 AHC -1 @1,725 AHC -1,5 @ 2,2 -
Re: German Super Cup: Dortmund - Bayern Very good price on Borussia. The game is played in Dortmund, so they got home advantage. Bayern's stars who played at the WC missed practically the whole pre-season. According to reports in German media, Pep said they are not ready to play yet, so he will most likely play mainly with guys, who didn't participate in the World Cup. The expected lineup is: Starke - Javi Martinez, Badstuber, Alaba - Höjbjerg, Rode, Gaudino, Juan Bernat - Shaqiri, Pizarro - Lewandowski. It looks very weakened to me, especially in defense and in the midfield. Also, Pep is experimenting again - this time with scheme with 3 defenders. I am not sure it will be beneficial for Bayern at least in the beginning. Dortmund is still missing due to injuries some important players: Reus, Gundogan, Cuba, Sahin. However, they had much better and more intensive pre-season than Bayern, who had just few friendlies. Moreover, this game will be much more important for Dortmund, not only because they play at home, but also because they were without trophies last season. The price offered at Marathon is simply insane. Dortmund @ 3.85 (Marathon)
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[TABLE=class: table-main] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1407945600-1-1-0-0]19:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2] Dortmund - Bayern Munich[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.39[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.60[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.06[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Club Friendlies 2014
Real Madrid haven't played great in last friendlies' date=' including the cup they have played in US (loses to Manchester United, Roma, Inter Milan). [/quote'] I saw several comments, referring to these friendlies of Real Madrid. Guys, please, have a look at Real Madrid's team lists for these games. They practically played with Real Madrid B (the youth team of Real Madrid, playing in Segunda) plus several first team players. The big guns were missing. Before the 60th minute of these friendlies, nearly all of the remaining top players of Real were substituted by some kids, so Real played at least 1/3 of each of these games with completely junior team and the rest of these games with just several of the key guys. There could be some concern about the fitness level and flexibility of the Real Madrid stars, as most of them practically didn't play a single pre-season friendly. But judging from the results from this US tournament doesn't make much sense. -
Re: Club Friendlies 2014
Wrong - Chelsea plays Real Sociedad tomorrow.Correct me if I am mistaken, but I believe Real Betis play Chelsea tomorrow as well. In any case, it's worth monitoring the side that Real Betis put out today vs Fiorentina. -
Re: Club Friendlies 2014 Fiorentina playing tomorrow another game - against Betis....
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2014/15
Ado lost by a goal in the last minute. Extremely unlucky' date=' a red card in the first half totally ruined the game. They were atleast equal to feyenoord till that moment. [/quote'] I think ADO was better. I didn't see anything from Feyenoord in this game, to be honest. Anyway, I believe that prudent punters should have covered such bet when there were just few minutes to go on the clock, so that they can be protected (at very low price) from some unlucky goal in extra time, as happened today. -
Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 7th August 2014 St. Polten - PSV I am backing PSV to win with at least two goals difference. The class gap is huge - St.Polten is second division Austrian team. The first match should bring no confusion - it was completely different complexion as St.Polten were defending in numbers (parking the bus), trying to get good result away from home. PSV are not a team build-up to break easily tight and compact defenses. They lack physical advantage, typical "number nine" and midfielders able to distribute well and deliver good through balls. Also the 4-3-3 formation they are using, is not very efficient against bus-parkers. The great speed of PSV attack is not so useful against team that stay deep and defend in numbers. However, PSV is the perfect team to utilize empty spaces and hit on the break. Players like Depay, De Young and Narsingh have great speed and are excellent outplaying an opponent one-to-one. I think St.Polten will be much more attacking at home. They need to recover a goal deficit and that was their attitude in the last round against Botev. They were negative away, but became very attacking and positive at home. I draw some comparisons with last year PSV CL qualifier against Zulte (of course, given that Zulte is much higher class than St.Polten). In the first game PSV struggled at home against very defensive Zulte. But in the return leg, the Dutch had many empty spaces to explore and they destroyed their opponent - won 3:0 and missed 7-8 sitters to make the score more embarrasing. PSV-1.5 @ 2.45 (Pinnacle)
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Re: Club Friendlies 2014
Just a small remark - I don't think you should judge much from the game of Bayern vs Chivas. The Mexicans were doing some nasty tackles in defense - something untypical for friendlies, but typical for teams from South America. After a few bad tackles in the first half an hour, Bayern realized it is not worth risking injuries in such friendlies and began to play very careful. Also Chivas never really tried to attack - they were sitting back the whole game and rarely engaged more than 3-4 people in BAyern's half. MLS All-stars would never play dirty and aggressive in defense. And they will surely engage in much more attacking football. Of course, good luck with your bet - if Bayern decides to play "tiki-taka" again, you have good chance to hit it. But you better have in mind that the last friendly has nothing to do with this one.A 3pts MLS All Stars vs Bayern Munich - Under 1.5 1st half goals @ 2.10 Bet365 Traditionally these matches tend to be high scoring. They lost to AS Roma 3-1 last year and the year before that they beat Chelsea 3-2. The 3 previous games ended 0-4 to Man Utd, 2-5 to Man Utd and 1-1 vs Everton. Bayern looked kind of lacklustre in front of goal in their last game only managing to score 1 goal in that game. They really haven't managed to get going just yet and as such I fancy the first half to be a tight affair with just one being scored. -
Re: Club Friendlies 2014
Good luck, but I am not sure I see any value in this. Akhisar is one of the toughest Turkish teams, who always play on level terms with the likes of Galatasaray and Fenerbahce. You mentioned they drew with Hannover lately, which is a relatively equal team to Hamburger. Certainly 1.57 doesn't appeal to me, even though HAmburger should be deservedly favorite.sEarly one for tomorrow. It isn't a great price by any means, but it will probably move in tomorrow, especially given the limited 'action' available. Hamburg are facing Akhisar Belediyespor (AB), and they look to be in much better shape than the Turkish side. Hamburg have a number of friendlies under their belt, including two/three since having all their players in the squad. Wolfsburg, Monchengladbach and Sturm Graz are a decent set of opponents. A couple of you guys tipped them last time and by all accounts they have been decent. The Turkish side are one match into a run of four, drawing 1-1 with Hannover 96. That isn't a bad result tbf, and Hamburg aren't world beaters, but they seem to be quite a bit further into their prep and I'll take them for the win. I may consider AH lines when they are freely available. Hamburg - 1.57 - 5 points - Bet365 EDIT - Sporting could be a good shout for similar reasons as they take on Al Ittihad Al Sakandary, an Egyptian team. -
Re: Europa League Third Qual Round First Leg - Thurs 31st July
Indeed! If your bet is "hanging on" just one potential goal to be scored by the "bad guys" in the dying minutes of the game, it is absolute must to cover the bet, no matter what. By the way, bet365 also offers the option to close down your bets "in-live".If a late goal will hurt too much - best to lay it off in Betfair (i.e. bet on 'over x goals') -
Re: Club Friendlies 2014
provided someone can find out if Chievo will be fielding their A team or B team here. Chievo play Dortmund today and Marseille tomorrow' date=' in other words two games in 24hrs of each other. [/quote'] This is very interesting info! I believe Chievo will use different squads in each half in both games. So, the so-called A-squad will play one half against Dortmund and Marseille. Dortmund also starts with the best (attacking trio Immobile-Aboumeyang-Mkhtaryan), but in the previous friendlies they would substitute the 3 at half-time. -
Re: Club Friendlies 2014
But I can tell you one thing' date=' this united side will be back on track shortly. some great movements on the pitch, speed, pace and above all a few great attacking plays we havent seen for a while. [/quote'] Off-topic: Senk, not sure I would agree with what you're saying about United. In my eyes, they were piss poor against Inter - could have taken them ages to score a single goal. They were poor against Roma as well, apart for a few moments of brilliance from Rooney and Mata within the span of several minutes. For the rest of the game United played crap football. Also I see that the deadwood that should have been long ago offloaded - Cleverly, Nani, Young etc. - are still hanging around and taking part in United's friendlies. United still doesn't have a decent attacking midfielder, as new singing Herrera seems with very defensive profile and little contribution in terms of dribbling and through-balls. On the wings they are still relying on the likes of Valencia, Nani and Young, who are poor quality. Also Van Gaal seems to insist on this 5 defenders experiment from the World Cup. I am not sure this will work well in Premier League. And this Italian formation is utterly negative and defensive. -
Re: Champions League Third Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 29th & Wed 30th July So, my final call on Ludo-Partizan is overs. The odds are simply insane - 2.30 for over 2.5, which is price, more typical for Argentine Primera. I already wrote about Ludo problems in defense. On the other hand, their attack is complete and they almost always score goals at home (plus Partizan defense is not that good). Ludo should score at least once, but most likely more than once. Partizan has all excellent chance to score at least a goal, either, given the defense troubles of Ludo. I cannot see this game with less than 2 goals. Over 2 Asian Goal @ 1.725 (bet365)
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Re: Club Friendlies 2014 This whole tournament in USA is complete crap and utter joke. 95% of the each game are just passes between the central defenders, followed by passing back to the keeper. Whenever the ball finally is passed forward to some of the midfielders, as soon as he feels an opponent approaching, he just returns it back to the central defenders, who in turn return in to the keeper. And this is going on over and over again. Feels more entertaining watching the grass grow, rather than this "football". There is definitely value on unders in almost every game, but it is sad I hate playing unders.
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Re: Champions League Third Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 29th & Wed 30th July Very bad news for Ludogorets. They will be missing nearly all their defense! Out for this game are: Mozzi and Bart - the central defense pair, Terziev - central defender, substitute for Mozzi/Bart; Angulo - regular right back; Minev - used to be regular right back last season, now he is substitute for Angulo. Now Ludogorets are left in central defense with only Alexandrov and Mantula. Alexandrov got a heavy knock on Saturday against Cherno More and I am not sure that even if he starts, he will be in top condition. Mantula is a very poor defender for the standards of Ludogorets and they concede almost always when he plays. On the right back, Ludogorets can play only Brazilian Choco. The guy is fast and has good dribbling, but he is pathetic in his defensive duties. I see definitely value on Partizan now. My bet will be Partizan or Draw.
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Re: Club Friendlies 2014
Excellent tip, 10x you!!!I would like to add two another bets. Heracles Almelo vs Konyaspor. Game will be played on a neutral venue. Heracles is a Eredivisie team from the dutch league, ended on rank 14th. Poor season for them, but you can't really expect more from a low budget club like Heracles. Their finance are fine and they are avoiding relegation every year. They've lost several key players this summer. Especially regular goalie Pasveer. Important striker Uth, regular winger Rosheuvel and centre back B.Rienstra. Surprisingly they didn't brought in any decent replacements on first sight. No new striker, regular midfielder Fledderus came from Roda who's quite good from set pieces but pretty fragile. And R.Zomer a sub who rarely played for Heerenveen last season. They've played 3 friendlies so far. 10-0 win against a weak local side. 2-0 loss against a Firs Division team Den Bosch and a win over First division team De graafschap 3-2. Konyaspor surprised many with a 0-0 draw against Twente and a 4-0 win over Ado Den Haag. Not that I rate Ado that much but they aren't that much weaker than Heracles. Pretty equal last season. Checked Konyaspor's team and they only lost Gekas from last season and regular their goalie Itandje. Gekas is surely a miss I guess with his 13 goals but on the other hand they've signed Marica from Getafe. Also a decent striker for this level though. Djalma came from Porto, who played a big part last season in their squad. Their starting 11 will be pretty much the same and I fancy them to win tonight against Heracles. Atleast a scoring draw is on the cards here. I will back Konyaspor team goals over 1.5 with medium stakes. Konyaspor to win small stakes.
Manchester City v Stoke City > Saturday August 30th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Manchester City v Stoke City > Saturday August 30th
If you find this "funny", you have to share this "wisdom" before the games and suggest a value bet. Quick overview of your few posts, show that this is a habit of yours - keeping quiet before the game, and then saying how "funny" it is that some public bet lost. This is a loser's attitude.