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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Club Friendlies 2014

    Bari hosting Marseille on neutral venue. I'm REALLY surprised to see these odds on Marseille. Bari haven't played a single friendly this summer while Marseille demolished Leverkusen with 4-1 and a 5-0 win over Willem 2. I watched that game and even though Willem 2 is quite poor Marseille played with a really strong team and they should be determined to do better than last year. Odds around 1.90 are pretty huge if you look at the statistics. Don't know much about Italian serie B but no way Bari is in great shape and even if they are quite fit, Marseille looked really sharp and there is surely a quality gap between these two teams. Don't think these odds will hold till kick-off, expecting something like 1.70 max. So I'm glad to take them early cause in 10 days the Ligue 1 starts and I can't find any reasons why Marseille would take it easy here. Medium stakes Marseille to win!
    It is not a neutral venue. I read on AS Bari Facebook that the game is going to be played at Stadio San Nicola in Bari and it is going to be official presentation of Bari team. 20,000 tickets have been sold up to today afternoon. This could have some effect on your bet, although I still think Marseille should be favs.
  2. Re: Club Friendlies 2014

    Kitchee vs PSG This seems to be a complete mismatch if you ask me. PSG have played 4 pre-season friendlies already and won 3 of them scoring a total of 11 goals in those 4 games. Kitchee is a team from Hong Kong and though they might have won their league, this will be their 1st pre-season game. Throw in the fact Zlatan is back and will likely feature, and scored an insane goal in practise (see link below) it cannot bode well for Kitchee. Cannot wait for the handicap lines to be out, I think backing PSG to win by 2 or 3 goals is well within their reach. At the moment, HT/FT - PSG/PSG @ 1.44 Bet365 looks good to me. Link: http://www.independent.ie/sport/leftfield/video-zlatan-does-what-only-zlatan-can-do-30464892.html
    I remember seeing Kitchee against United, and United were simply toying with them and could have scored 10 goals easily. On the other hand, they drew with Arsenal two years ago. But I check the lineup for Arsenal on that day and it was very unimpressive - http://www.arsenal.com/match-menu/173289/first-team/kitchee-fc-v-arsenal?tab=comm. PSG supposed line up is way better than this. But PSG don't seem to take friendlies very seriously - their results so far are not that good and they concede goals too easily. To be honest, I find attractive the BTTS bet for this game.
  3. Re: Champions League Third Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 29th & Wed 30th July Ludo with surprisingly bad form - no goal in two games in A PFG, both against mediocre teams. They also drew with Dudelange and played pathetic in the away leg. They got problems with injuries of their central defenders. There might be some value on Partizan, but I am not sure they are a very good team. But if they have a good coach, who would know how to arrange them well at the back and how to break against insecure Ludo' defense, then they might be value.

  4. Re: Club Friendlies 2014 Wacker Innsburck - Koln I am surprised with the odds on away win. The class gap here is big - a Bundesliga team against a team from the second tier of Austria (1 Liga). Wacker lost this summer friendlies against Ajax with 1:5 and Werder Bremen with 2:5. It is interesting that the friendly with Werder was played last Wednesday, amidst two official matches for Wacker from the Austrian 1 Liga. For this reason, after 30 minutes of play, the coach of Wacker Innsbruck changed the whole starting eleven and put second-string players. Now Wacker have started with 2 losses and 0 points in their league and on Friday they have important away game vs Kapfenberger. This means that surely they will rest their regular players, which in addition to the big class gap, should make this game very one-sided. Koln -1.5 @ 2.48 (Marathon)

  5. Re: Bulgaria: 2014-15 Beroe - Botev I like Beroe's odds here. Botev is a team in tremendous crisis. A few months ago, they were the wealthiest Bulgarian team and had ambitions to challenge Ludogorets. But over one week in June, everything crumbled - the bank of the their owner bankrupted and the owner fled the country, fearing legal prosecution for this bankruptcy. After this events, the budget of Botev have been reduced many times, the salary ceiling dropped to 1,500 euros/month (they had players getting 25-30,000 euros monthly before that), most of the key players and the coach Penev ran away and the team was filled with youngsters from the youth team. Botev had an awful game yesterday against 2nd division Austrian St Polten. They were all over the place, the Austrian won 2-0 but could have easily scored 5-6 goals, as they missed a plethora of excellent chances. Botev seemed completely clueless. On top of this, their new manager is Velislav Vutsov - a very poor and terrible coach, who keeps on being promoted just because his father was an important official in Bulgarian football, but the guy is a big mess and he always fails epically everywhere. Beroe is one of the most solid teams in the country. They got financial stability (something rare for our league), they have a very good manager who has been with the team for several seasons already, and they got also a core of players who have played together for some time and have built very good connection. Beroe was probably the best Bulgarian team in summer friendlies as they destroyed Levski with 3:0 and totally outplayed CSKA (finished 0:0). Beroe has got a fortress at home where they get top support from the crowd and are very hard to play against. On top of this, they have very good record against Botev (it is kind of local rivalry). Beroe @ 2.10 (bet365)

  6. Re: Bulgaria: 2014-15 Loko Plovdiv - Slavia Big value on visitors and very wrong odds! Loko Plovdiv are completely different team this season - they lost their owner, their coach and all their squad from last year. Against Levski last Saturday only two players from last season started for Loko - goalkeeper Gospodinov and defender Granchov. After their owner left the team, the fans of Loko Plovdiv started owning it and desperately trying to find some money from sponsors, so that the team can start the season. They quickly assembled a team, but the guys they got are of lower quality and I barely knew 2-3 names from their whole squad - the rest were completely anonymous players to me (and even those that I knew, are players from lower caliber). Furthermore, they trained together for only 10 days before the start of the season. I guess the price is like this because Loko got surprisingly good result - 1:1 draw away to Levski, and they were even leading before Levski equalized 7 minutes before the final whistle. However, Loko Plovdiv didn't show anything in this came - they could barely string three passes together and cross the half-line. They simply parked the bus and scored from a long shot distance. It wasn't Loko Plovdivplaying well, it was Levski being poor and devoid of any ideas (as they were the whole last season). On the other hand, Slavia this summer did probably the best transfer policy in the last decade for their club. They were very active on the market (which is not typical for Slavia) and bought some very good players for A PFG standards - former CSKA Brazilian striker Platini (he was one of the best forwards in the league two seasons ago), Dutch midfielder Burtzorg from Ludogorets, midfielder Stanislav Gentchev - former Ludogorets and Levski, wide midfielder Manzoro from Chernomorets and defender Vezhalov from Levski. Slavia has a good squad and they run over Marek in the 1st round - 4:1 at home. I think Slavia is a better team than Loko Plovdiv and the hosts will not park the bus at home and will leave much more space in the back. Even if they don't, I still believe Slavia should have the upper hand here. I would price away win at around 2.10. At current prices - above 3 in some bookies, it is big value. The draw no bet or double chance on Slavia is a must for more risk averse punters. Slavia @ 3.05 (Marathon)

  7. [TABLE=class: table-main]

    [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]26 Jul 2014[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH]B's[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1406386800-1-1-0-0]18:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Cherno More - Ludogorets[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.82[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.52[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.64[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1406388600-1-1-0-0]18:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Marek - Haskovo[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.02[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.17[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.48[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1406394000-1-1-0-0]20:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Lok. Plovdiv - Slavia Sofia[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.36[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.19[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]27 Jul 2014[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH]B's[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1406478600-1-1-0-0]19:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]CSKA Sofia - Levski[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.51[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.16[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.59[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1406480400-1-1-0-0]20:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Beroe - Botev Plovdiv[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.17[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]28 Jul 2014[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH]B's[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1406561400-1-1-0-0]18:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Lok. Sofia - Litex Lovech[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.82[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.26[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.90[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  8. Re: Europa League Second Qual Round 2nd Leg - Tues 22 July to Thurs 24 July

    Stan James have the 0-0 in the Krasnodar match @ 101' date=' whereas it's as low as 21 in other places, so I've had a small go at that. I'm not saying 0-0 will happen, but we know what a bad attitude Russian sides have, and being 4-0 up, you wouldn't expect them to be all guns blazing, so could be a trade.[/quote'] With all the bad history of Estonian teams losing very big in Europa (with corresponding unusual drop in handicaps on Asian markets), I wouldn't try this. I just remember Trans Narva - another Russian-speaking Estonian team (Sillamae is almost completely Russian ethnicity town, and so are most of the players), which was losing huge every time in Europe and they looked like assisting their opponents in scoring the goals. Also, class gap is too huge. Krasnodar is actually one of the best teams in Russia, in the last half an year I think they are at par with Zenith and CSKA. They got some really classy Brazilians. And the Estonian teams are not known to be best bus-parkers, they play rather negligently at the back. I think it is a game to bet live. There is a very high chance of a slow start from Krasnodar and no goals for the first 20-30 minutes, which would adjust the odds. I am pretty sure Krasnodar will win with 3+ goals, but of course, current odds are complete joke.
  9. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 2nd Leg - Tues 22nd & Wed 23rd July

    Please enlighten me as to where people have discussed this game in this thread. I see one minor mention.
    "Malmo were awful in the 1st leg. Plain awful. I read from a Swedish football expert (I think on this forum) that their best player is injured and they just sold two other key players. I think this game should be "under 2.5" but I am not betting on it." "Malmo were the biggest disappointment of last week, created nothing and looked terrible - I won't be touching them again especially at that price even against a side like Ventspils who are hardly world-beaters." I think that's more than enough to know about this game. Last week Malmo played awful and the real price for them winning at that game should have been 2.30-2.40 (it was 1.10). Now they meet the same opponent, a week later, a draw with goals suits them, and they are priced at 1.50-1.60. Bad deal in my eyes.
  10. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 2nd Leg - Tues 22nd & Wed 23rd July

    Does anyone have any input?? This would be a massive upset should Malmo not right the ship today.
    Sorry, but you asking the same question twice in the same thread, even though input about this game has been already given in the same thread. Seems you are just lookin for "green light" to load on Malmo.
  11. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 2nd Leg - Tues 22nd & Wed 23rd July

    Malmo must come good surely ?
    This type of reasoning - "team A must do the job surely" - is a recipe for betting disaster. Malmo were awful in the 1st leg. Plain awful. I read from a Swedish football expert (I think on this forum) that their best player is injured and they just sold two other key players. I think this game should be "under 2.5" but I am not betting on it.
  12. Re: Club Friendlies 2014

    8pts Bayern Munich (-1.5 AH) @ 1.77 Bet365 Duisburg have played 4 friendlies drawing 1-1 with a 4th division German team, winning 7-0 against a 5th division German team, winning 3-1 against a 3rd division team and most recently losing 2-0 to a 2nd division German team. I think Bayern Munich despite this being their 1st pre-season friendly, they should steam roll over them. Bayern Munich have played 17 friendlies since the start of 2013 and won 16 of them, covering the -1.5 asian handicap line in 15 of those games. Against a side from the 3rd division German league, I think they should cover this line more times than not.
    Good luck, but I am not sure about this one. Practically the whole team of Bayern is resting from the World Cup and they will play with way too many youngsters. The class gap between 3 Liga (Diusburg) and Regional Liga (Bayern's opponent in 1st friendly) is huge.
  13. Ukraine Super Cup Final: Shakhtar - Dinamo Kyiv. Game is played in Lviv (Western Ukraine). Odds on Dinamo fastly dropping, but still some good prices can be caught. Six Shakhtar players yesterday refused to fly back to Ukraine - http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/six-shakhtar-donetsk-players-refuse-3887302 These are all key and important players. In addition, situation in Shakhtar is deteriorating and uncertain. They cannot play in Donetsk their games. Their owner Rinat Ahmetov is outside of the country for months, and his business is seriously threatened after the Maidan and the events in Ukraine, as Russia is his major supplier and market for his products. There are even many rumors that he is financing the rebels in East Ukraine. All in all, what matters for us bettors is that situation with Shakhtar is very uncertain and it is not known whether and when their owner will return in Ukraine and if he is going to continue financing the team. Dinamo @ 2.1 (Marathon)

  14. Re: Club Friendlies 2014 CSKA Moscow - the Russian champions - welcome for a friendly today the Serbian Super League side OFK Beograd. The friendly is being played in Moscow, not at CSKA's stadium, but at a smaller stadium in the city. The entrance is free. This is the last friendly of CSKA Moscow before their first official game next week - the Super Cup final. So, it is sort of team presentation for the new season. Good attendance is expected. CSKA will play with their best squad (at least for most of the game). OFK Beograd is a mid to lower table Serbian team, known mainly for their development of young talents. OFK Beograd arrived in Moscow for the annual summer tournament Lev Yashin Cup, and this friendly with CSKA Moscow was additionally scheduled before this tournament starts. What is very curious is that OFK Beograd has their first game from Lev Yashin Cup against Malaga B side on Monday, i.e. about 24 hours after this game with CSKA Moscow. I can assume that OFK will rotate heavily and will not put excessive energy into the friendly with CSKA, but will be more focused on the upcoming tournament. In contrast, for CSKA it is the last friendly and a pre-season presentation in front of their fans. The Moscow team will play with their best squad, which is many classes stronger that OFK Beograd. On top of it, OFK are still in the beginning of their preparation, with several more weeks to go before the official start of their season. CSKA -1.5 @ 2.0 (bet365)

  15. Re: Club Friendlies 2014 Very unfortunate for you. I have seen most of the game and I think City still looked awful - slow, disinterested, without any good link-up between the players. Both City goals came practically out of nowhere and I don't remember any other good scoring chances for them. This was never a 4.0 for Hearts or Draw, so your bet was great value. Anyway, City continues to be consistently the worst performing Premier League team in prep games.

  16. Re: Europa League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Wednesday 16th to Thursday 17th J Guys, watch out on these Molde bets. It seems that Scandinavian football is very poor these days. Malmo today - total disaster, IFK Gotteborg couldn't beat Fola Esch at home, Stromgodset were totally overrun by Steaua, who are far from their best, Haugesund struggling against very poor Welsh team...And Malmo was so dominant in their league as Molde is in the Norwegian. I don't know about the situation with these loaned players in Gorica, but Slovenian football has been improving a lot. And Gorica seem like a solid outfit, who were very competitive in direct encounters with Maribor. And MAribor are better team than Molde for sure.

  17. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July

    Yes' date=' after the goal. You're right. But Legia plays the better football, IMO. What do you think about the collision of the Irish keeper and a Polish forward? Should've been seriously booked? I'm undecided[/quote'] ?ccording to the Irish commentators, it should have been a red. In my view, it was correct yellow - the Polish guy was running aside, plus there were Irish defenders running alongside him. According to rules, this should be yellow.
  18. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July

    Legia are dominating like Ludogorets did. They even hit the crossbar. The Irish got away with one counter and this smells like a betting disaster.
    The Irish missed an absolute sitter to make it 2-0. They had also excellent long shot to be blocked by the keeper. I feel the Irish got the better chances so far.
  19. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July Malmo are complete jokers! My eyes still hurt from such terrible football - so many wrong passes, so terrible first touches - the guys from Malmo seem to hate the game called football. The worst of all was that Malmo's manager obviously have told them that the most important thing is not conceding a goal at home, rather than winning the game. No other explanation for Malmo's full-backs sitting deep back, despite that Ventspils defended all the time with 11 men, so that on the wings it was always one Malmo guy against 3 or 4 Latvians. The central defenders of Malmo also stood all the time deep in their half, despite Ventspils defending with 11 men. For this reason, Malmo's center midfielders were forced to stay back and Malmo simply found themselves all the time playing one against three or four Ventspils players. It seems that Malmo's coach thought Ventspils counter-attack like Borussia Dortmund.

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