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Fedar

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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th I think we all agree that Colombia is a better team atm, especially when Uruguay are missing Suarez. However, I am trying to ask myself whether there is value on them at this odds. Uruguay, even without Suarez, are a very experienced side with solid defense. I don't see them beating a better Colombian team in regular time, but they are totally capable of holding them to a draw. Probably I would have priced Colombia around 2.0 - exactly the bookies have done, so probably it is very close to their real price. I have absolutely no doubt about Uruguay's approach, especially without Suarez. For 270 minutes in the group stage, they had just several good scoring occasions (including the goals) - and they were all either set-pieces, or Suarez' creations. Uruguay don't have good offensive midfielders to provide balls to Cavani, and he doesn't have the exquisite footwork of Suarez to create space and chances for himself - Edinson is just a good finisher, nothing more. However, Uruguay have very good defense, defensive midfielders and an excellent Muslera on goal. Their defending people are probably a bit old and slow, but normally this doesn't matter when they stay compact and leave little space - in such cases, their excellent positioning and physical advantage is what matters the most. That's why I am confident Tabarez (who has reputation for being a very negative coach) will play very defensive and will try to rely on set-pieces, or probably extra-time and penalties. Under 2.25 @ 1.88 (SBO)

  2. Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th Totally agree with Aidymac. Brazil has been very poor so far - not only on this tournament, but as a whole in the last 4 years in most of the friendlies they have played. They have joke forwards like Fred and Jo. Their defense is surprisingly shaky (I believe this should be the line where Brazil should be one of the best in the world). But their worst problem, imo, is their midfield, which is simply lacking vision and creativity, often losing easy balls and thus putting their defense under huge pressure, and making Brazil attacks so one-dimensional and predictable. I am shocked at Scolari's stubborness to play dead-wood like Paulinho and Gustavo in midfield, and bench one of the best and most creative midfielders in the world - Fernandinho. Paulinho and Luis Gustavo are simply limited players with very defensive profile and little technique and passing skills. As Scolari is a stubborn and always negative manager, I believe he will insist on using "horses" in the midfield, rather than "artists". Also, forgive me, but I still think Neymar is very overrated. The goals against clownish Cameroon defense and the gift from Croatian keeper Pletikosa don't tell the whole story. Neymar is not an efficient player and his decision-making is questionable. He often engages in foolish dribbling and making show-off moves against several opponents, instead of passing quickly the ball to free team-mates in good position. He often loses the ball in stupid way in areas, where dangerous counters might be launched against Brazil. And I seriously question the guy's ability to act in small spaces against tight defenses - we know he is excellent one-on-one with enough space to run past the defender, but I don't think he is efficient in alternative circumstances. Last but not least, pressure is completely on Brazil's shoulders. A lose to Chile will be like a nightmare not only for the team, but for the whole nations. Meanwhile, Chileans are relaxed and at the same time very confident in themselves. Chile +1 @1..96 (SBO)

  3. Re: Group H - South Korea v Belgium > Thursday June 26th

    But overall' date=' I'm not really impressed by this Belgium side. In a generally weak group they didn't convince me once. With all the quality they have, they should have beaten these sides much more comfortable imo.[/quote'] I think their main problem is that Willmots wasn't very confident about who his best eleven are, and he was trying to figure it out during the group stage (I think he should have come up with this decision much earlier). Another issue with them is Belgium missing classic full-backs and needing to replace them with centre backs, which don't provide enough support for the great wingers they have. And last - the poor performance of Lukaku (and injury of Benteke), however, this guy Origi looks amazingly good and smart player, so I feel Belgium have solved this part of the puzzle.
  4. Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th The market going crazy - 1.80 for Germany now. I was waiting for this. Sorry, but I don't believe in this conspiracy stories. All I see is a way classier and fully fit German team, who played with high intensity just 45 minutes - 1st half against Portugal, against a USA team which played two very intense games against Ghana and Portugal, and on top of this had one day less to rest. Also it is very likely that the Ghana-Portugal game goes in USA favor (Portugal leading), which would mean that the Americans might open up and try to go for the first place in the group. I think Germany will really want to keep 1st place and avoid Belgium in 1/8 finals and they ain't gonna rely on keeping a draw (in which case a late American winner can stun them), but will try to get advantage. Germany @ 1.80 (bet 365)

  5. Re: Group H - South Korea v Belgium > Thursday June 26th

    I think it's a little more than that, Belgium haven't looked good in either of their performances so far. On paper, with all of their talent, they should have easily brushed aside Algeria and Russia but they just didn't look convincing at all and they limped over the line with late goals in both games. They aren't gelling as a team and tactically they look lost, 6 points flatters them. As bad a Korea are, I don't think this is a straightforward one. All 3 Belgium goals have come on 70+ minutes so I do think it'll be a decent one to wait for in-play value.
    I agree with all you wrote, but I don't argue that Belgium will play with higher intensity than in the previous games. My main argument is that now they will be facing a team with much weaker defense than Russia and Algeria, and a team who is going to attack them and not sit back and absorb pressure. Also take in consideration the price - 1.80 at the moment, simply too big to miss under these circumstances.
  6. Re: Group G - Portugal v Ghana > Thursday June 26th

    Totally agree with the opinions above. I think the odds quoted are nothing more than a simple "reputation" prices, which have little to do with the actual condition and situation of both teams. Portugal is out with 95% certainty, but even if they had a chance, I would have still written them off. They are missing a number of important players: Pepe, Coentrao, Postiga and Almeida (both forwards). Most likely, they will have to field Eder at the top of the attack, who is in my opinion, a terrible player. In the centre, Meireles and Coutinho look exhausted and poor. The full-backs have zero contribution and support to the flanks. Ronaldo looks not fit and Nani is useless and wasteful as usual. Overall, the team looks to have completely lost any belief and will to fight. Whoever watched Ghana's two games, know that these guys deserved at least 4 points, although they are just with one. They are very good and balanced team, and unlike most African sides on big tournaments, they are disciplined and know how to defend well. These guys seem like fighters and working well as a unit and a collective (unlike other African - Cameroon the most notorious example). No way they can be underdogs against this poor Portugal. I have the feeling they will teach them a lesson. Ghana DNB @ 2.50 (bet 365)
    I personally already used the option in Bet 365 - "close down your bet" (for a small fee). I cannot trust a team which such internal problems about which I was unaware. My main arguments here were about the good climate in the dressing room of Ghana, but it seems the African syndrome have caught up with them. No bet for me under these circumstances.
  7. Re: Group G - Portugal v Ghana > Thursday June 26th Totally agree with the opinions above. I think the odds quoted are nothing more than a simple "reputation" prices, which have little to do with the actual condition and situation of both teams. Portugal is out with 95% certainty, but even if they had a chance, I would have still written them off. They are missing a number of important players: Pepe, Coentrao, Postiga and Almeida (both forwards). Most likely, they will have to field Eder at the top of the attack, who is in my opinion, a terrible player. In the centre, Meireles and Coutinho look exhausted and poor. The full-backs have zero contribution and support to the flanks. Ronaldo looks not fit and Nani is useless and wasteful as usual. Overall, the team looks to have completely lost any belief and will to fight. Whoever watched Ghana's two games, know that these guys deserved at least 4 points, although they are just with one. They are very good and balanced team, and unlike most African sides on big tournaments, they are disciplined and know how to defend well. These guys seem like fighters and working well as a unit and a collective (unlike other African - Cameroon the most notorious example). No way they can be underdogs against this poor Portugal. I have the feeling they will teach them a lesson. Ghana DNB @ 2.50 (bet 365)

  8. Re: Group H - South Korea v Belgium > Thursday June 26th Sorry to Kevshat that my bets overlap with his, but I was having this in mind ever since I saw the prices. I see this game as being very similar to Colombia-Japan, with the difference that Korea is even more naive and weak defensively team, and Belgium "reserves" are more dangerous than Colombian. I expect to see a naive and enthusiastic Korean team trying to attack and put pressure on Belgium, and a calm and relaxed Belgian team, absorbing the pressure with ease thanks to their outstanding defense, and hitting severely the Koreans on the break. Given that Belgium hasn't assured 1st place, I expect many regulars to start, but even the substitute players are expected to be from top quality. Korea needs 3 points to keep any chance to qualify, and knowing their mentality, I am sure they are going for it and we ain't gonna see a repetition of tonight's game France-Ecuador when the team that needed 3 points defended with all the men around their penalty area. And even if Koreans decide to defend (very unlikely), their defense is much worse and more vulnerable. This game is clear value for Belgium, which is gifted only because of the assumption of "less motivation" for the Belgians. Belgium @ 1.7 (bet365)

  9. Re: Group H - Algeria v Russia > Thursday June 26th I agree with most of your reasoning - indeed Algeria showed better performance and the double chance on them is almost as big as the straight win for Russia, so this should imply value. However, I still keep in mind that Russia had a great coach (although Algeria's coach is also very good) and Russians are specialists in grinding out results. I think they had an excellent game for 80 minutes against Belgium when Russia seemed better on the pitch, but somehow their whole game ruined after the substitution when Dzagoev entered (I guess their defense balance was disrupted). Against Korea they were poor, but it is a trait of this Russian team to not play very good games against so-called "easy" opponents (lost to Northern Ireland and drew with Azerbaijan). Algeria looks like a solid squad, but they seem a bit too young, which may results in some loss of nerves in crucial moments. For these reasons, I am going for alternative bet here. I can see this game starting very cagey, as Algeria will play for draw and Capello is not the coach and Russia is not the team to open up from the 1st minute in such decisive games. I expect a careful start from Capello, who will probably again bench at least one among Dzagoev and Kerzhakov. He will try to gradually earn ground in the centre of the pitch and increase pressure methodically on Algerian defense. He is not going to take huge risks before the middle of the second half. All these arguments should speak for under-ish game, however, such important games often tend to open up abruptly in the last 20 minutes, when bigger risks are taken. Something similar happened two nights ago in Mexico-Croatia, when "over 3.5" was achieved within 17 minutes in the end after very cagey affair before that. Therefore, I am going with more goals in 2nd half, currently priced at evens. More Goals in 2nd Half @ 2.05 (bet 365)

  10. Re: Group E - Ecuador v France > Wednesday June 25th

    What a wasteful team France has been here' date=' and with a man advantage. If Nigeria can't knock them out (and they probably can't), then Germany will for sure.[/quote'] I don't think France' concentration in front of goal in the elimination will be the same as in this meaningless game. France attack was quite sharp in the previous two games (although with Benzema, you never know).
  11. Re: Group E - Honduras v Switzerland > Wednesday June 25th I am going with a conventional tip here - Switzerland to win with AH - 1. Honduras, with all respect, are a retrograde team - they play with classical 4-4-2, where they use primarily long balls towards isolated strikers; they try to play very defensively, but are not really well organized and disciplined in defense; they often make up for the bad defensive organization by using dreadful tackling and physical challenges. Honduras defense is very bad at set-pieces as seen in the previous two games. Honduras were twice in a row lucky to get referees who were tolerant towards their bully-like tackling, but I suppose know they will come upon a more strict referee. Also, I think that after Honduras are practically out of the tournament, it will be extremely hard for their coach to maintain the team discipline, so I can see Hondurans engaging more carelessly in attack and leaving empty zones than they would normally do if it was a 1st or 2nd game. I was surprised to see Switzerland with poor defensive performance so far - they had left me with impressions they are solid defensively and their coach is a master of defense. However, I believe Honduras attack will be a few levels lower challenge for them than France and even Ecuador. Switzerland actually didn't look bad at all in the midfield against France as the Swiss had good passing game and created good chances, and if it wasn't for their pathetic defending, they could have got better result. I think that Switzerland is simply more mature and better team than Honduras. Assuming that Honduras will be more open than usual, I think they can fall easy pray to the Swiss. Switzerland - 1 @ 1.73 (SBO)

  12. Re: Group F - Bosnia-Herzegovina v Iran > Wednesday June 25th I feel that analysts are over-estimating Iran a bit here, hence the odds movement. They are also underestimating the motivation of Bosnia. Iran were very limited against Nigeria and they could barely create a decent attack. They made a very good game against Argentina, but once again their tactics were all about deep defending (understandable against Argentina). However, now Iran will be in a completely new situation when they will need to attack and score a goal. I am not sure they have quality to lead the game and push their opponent. Bosnia became victims to the extraordinary expectations towards them and the over-enthusiasm inside their nation. Now that they already have no chance, I expect them to be more relaxed (in a positive way) and very motivated not to leave the tournament without a win. Let's not forget that Bosnia experienced very unlucky circumstances in the first two games - an own goal in the 1st minute against Argentina and a disallowed clear goal of Dzeko against Nigeria. I believe they won't be so unlucky today. Bosnia -0.25@ 1.97 (Pinnacle)

  13. Re: Group F - Bosnia-Herzegovina v Iran > Wednesday June 25th

    Iran will qualify if they win by 2 goals and Argentina beat Nigeria OR if Iran beat Bosnia and Argentina beat Nigeria by 2 goals. So they have every incentive to attack and win. I was impressed with Iran v Argentina - they could easily have won that game. They were denied a penalty and only lost to a last-minute Messi wonder-goal. Bosnia themselves were a bit unlucky against Argentina and had a goal wrongly disallowed against Nigeria. I could imagine a game that opens up quite a bit towards the end, with a possibility of some late goals, and over 2.5 goals being quite likely (could be good value at odds of over 2.0?). Iran have been fairly defensive, but not much point in them being defensive here when they have an outside chance of qualifying. If Iran attack, Bosnia should get chances on the counter.
    You're right with your reasoning, but I think something important should be kept in mind. A bet on overs here is very much dependent on who scores first. If Bosnia scores first, over 2.5 should come in, but if Iran open the score-sheet, I see the Persians parking the bus as they did twice very successfully. And Bosnia was entirely clueless against the parked bus of Nigerians, who are supposedly worse in defense than Iran.
  14. Re: Group F - Nigeria v Argentina > Wednesday June 25th Argentina played two very poor games. Both in terms of performance and team spirit, as Argentina looked to play slow, with not much pressure and chasing of the ball, and little interaction among the different lines in their team. I somehow don't believe that all of a sudden, after they have qualified already, despite their poor performances, they will go out on the pitch and drastically change their attitude for a more or less meaningless game. Given that a draw suits them to keep the first place, I see a slow and cautious Argentina, preferring to keep calm possession instead of sharp attacking. Nigeria needs one point to assure qualification and given the class difference,I expect Nigerians to play very defensively. I am wondering between backing Nigeria on handicap or "unders". My only worry with backing Nigeria on handicap is that Argies still have terrifying firepower in attack and can easily score out of nowhere. And if Argentina takes the lead, then there is high chance that Nigeria will open up and leave spaces in the back to be exlored by the likes of Messi, Aguero etc. Therefore, I prefer to back a bet that both teams won't score a goal, as I see Nigeria being very negative and Argentina not pushing them too hard and hence, not gifting Nigerians good chances to hit on the break, as Iranians did a few times on Saturday. BTTS: NO @ 1.87 (Bwin)

  15. Re: Group D: Costa Rica v England > Tues 24th June

    England @ 1.89 (Pinnacle)
    Just caught some moments from this game. Costa Rica didn't play with their usual intensity when pressing, but they were defending compactly and calmly. England was awful. Terrible passing and first touches, no will-power, no direction...To me, they looked like a bunch of spoiled guys, who are force to do a boring duty and are just looking forward to their vacations. Still, Sturridge had several 100% chances, but showed awful first touch and finishing. World Cup 2014 Stats: 18 Bets, 12 Wins, 6 Losses, 1 Void + 6.05 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  16. Re: Group C: Greece vs Ivory Coast > Tues 24th June

    Under 2.5 @ 1.79 (Pinnacle)
    Bet lost in a very sore way - a goal from penalty in the last minute of extra time. Nevertheless, to be the fair, the game was much more open than I expected, and surprisingly, this was due to Greece which played much more courageous and positive football than usual. Overall, Greece deserved to win and probably the "over" was deserved here, as many chances were missed (mainly by Greeks, who hit the post on three occasions). Ivory Coast showed the old weakness of African teams - any lack of tactical maturity and discipline. Despite having much superior players, they looked inferior as a team. World Cup 2014 Stats: 18 Bets, 12 Wins, 6 Losses, 1 Void + 6.05 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  17. Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

    Colombia @ 2.20 (Bet Victor)
    Deserved win for Colombia! The South Americans didn't play at their normal fast tempo, but Japan was simply inferior in class and very naive and unbalanced team. As I expected, they were leaving plenty of space for Colombia to hit them on the break, and even though Colombian attacking players didn't show the highest level of concentration, which they normally show in a more competitive environment, it was still more than enough to win with ease. I feel Colombia could have scored a few more if they put more effort into this game. Japan tried hard, but they simply lack class and their physical inferiority is a big disadvantage for them. Although they attacked in numbers and Colombia wasn't very sharp when defending, the Japanese could rarely make a good breakthrough and were losing with ease all the physical challenges, which made them so vulnerable to counter-attacks. World Cup 2014 Stats: 18 Bets, 12 Wins, 6 Losses, 1 Void + 6.05 Units (1 Unit per bet)
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