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jakdhu

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  1. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League > Feb 9th - 13th   
    Kidderminster v Macclesfield
    The home side need a miracle to stay up, but after two wins on the trot who knows what might happen. The beat Boreham Wood quite comfortably last weekend and then beat Eastleigh 3-2 in midweek. Confidence is a huge thing in football and those two wins will have given them plenty, it is also worth considering that even when they were losing it was usually by the odd goal. I have been unconvinced by Macclesfield for a while now and they only drew in the FA Trophy against Torquay last weekend. I think it is worth taking a punt on the home side to make it a hat-trick of wins at 12/5 with Bet365.   St Albans v Concord Rangers The home side are on a terrible run of form at the moment having lost their last four and games and they are bottom of the National League South. Granted they have played teams near the top, but Concord are unbeaten in five and they include draws at Ebbsfleet and Maidstone so they have faced tough teams as well. They look the better team and at odds against they look a decent bet.   Margate v Basingstoke and Sutton v Bath These two games should really both be home wins. I have written plenty about Margate in recent weeks and although they cost me a couple of weeks ago when only drawing, they bounced back with a win last week. The play-offs are probably out of reach as the teams around them have played fewer games, but they are building the foundations for a title bid next season. Bath are falling fast and although Sutton lost to Bognor in the FA Trophy on Tuesday they have been flying in the league and should win this. The double pays 1.6/1 with Marathon.   Enfield v Lewes Lewes might be bottom of the Ryman Premier, but they are in fantastic form at the moment. They are unbeaten in five and they have won three of them including a fantastic 3-1 win against 2nd place Dulwich on Wednesday night. Enfield have won three and lost three of their last six so are pretty inconsistent. Based on that Lewes have got a much better chance than their odds of 11/2 suggest and are well worth a punt.
  2. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League > Jan 26th - 30th   
    Aldershot v Kidderminster
    There are five bets this week, all at home and I fancy them all quite strongly. Aldershot haven't always performed that well at home this season, but as I wrote last week they have been showing real signs of improvement and they continued that when beating Macclesfield 2-0 last weekend. Their manager had moaned about their consistency, but they are finally showing some and are now scoring goals which was something they were struggling with. Kidderminster will be playing National League North football next season as they are 14 points from safety and they have little chance of staying up. They lost again last week and with Aldershot showing their improved for I am happy to take 5/6 (Marathon) about a home win.
     
    Braintree v Chester
    Braintree have struggled to get their home games on in recent weeks, but hopefully this will go ahead as their games against Wrexham did on Tuesday. Amazingly they have only scored eight goals at home and conceded the same number as well, so the chances of this being a goal fest are pretty slim. Braintree have won three of their last four home games and they have all been a goal to nil. Chester have only won once in their last six and they are in danger of being sucked into a relegation battle if they are not careful. I am surprised Braintree aren't odds on to win this and Chester have lost four of their last five away games. With their games in hand Braintree have every right to be thinking of the play-offs and they I reckon they will pick up another three points here. Betway go 23/20 about a home win and probably worth a small bet on a 1-0 victory at 6/1.
     
    Eastleigh v Wrexham
    Must admit that only getting a point at Boreham Wood last week probably means Eastleigh won't be winning the title this season. I have seen people mention that the top three are a class above everyone else in the league, but that is utter rubbish as Eastleigh are right up there with them. They have only lost twice in the league since Chris Todd took over and take out the dip in form that caused Richard Hill to resign and they would be right behind Forest Green and Cheltenham. Wrexham are in a terrible run of form at the moment and although they briefly stopped the rot by beating Lincoln (in shocking form themselves) 3-1 last week, as mentioned above they lost again on Tuesday. I think Eastleigh will prove too strong for the Welsh side and at just over 11/8 with Marathon they look a good bet.
     
    Woking v Barrow
    It was a big surprise to see Woking lose on Tuesday against Altrincham and hopefully it doesn't mean they are about to go on a poor run of form again. They have had a bizarre season as they started strongly, went through such a big slump that a relegation battle looked possible and now they are amazingly in the play-off picture after hitting form again. Barrow aren't in great form themselves and although they won at Welling last week they have lost ten of their away games this season and that was only their 3rd win. Barrow did win the reverse fixture in November, but that was before Woking's form turned around and I do think at a shade of odds against (Marathon) is a fair bet.
     
    Margate v Bishop Stortford
    Margate are flying up the table and the change of manager has really turned their season around. Their superb run of form continued against top of the table Ebbsfleet last weekend and they might just be capable of getting themselves into the play-offs now the team are performing as well as they should be. Bishop Stortford are in fair form themselves, but apart from Gosport who they beat on Saturday their recent matches have come against teams towards the bottom of the table and I really fancy Margate to win again. Bet365 are biggest at 13/10.
     
  3. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League > Jan 19th - 23rd   
    Chester v Southport
    I still think their is some mileage in backing Southport despite the fact they drew in a poor game at Bromley and lost to Dover in the FA Trophy last week. I think they are more than capable a result against a Chester side they are actually above in the table. I don't think Chester have been playing that well at all and although they won 4-0 against Hungerford in the FA Trophy last week, I do think the fact Hungerford went down to ten men made a big difference to the scoreline. In the league it still remains that only Eastleigh have beaten Southport under Maamria and at William Hill's 12/5 they are decent preview to gain another three points.   Macclesfield v Aldershot There have been signs of improvement from Aldershot of late and they have won two of their last five games. They got a good draw against Eastleigh and although they lost twice to local rivals Woking over Christmas they performed well in both games and Woking are flying at the moment. As I wrote last week I feel Macclesfield have been flattered by results of late and they needed a replay to get past Truro in the FA Trophy. Aldershot have had a break as they were out of the Trophy so they should come into this game fresher and if they continue in the good form they were in before their break they could gain three points. Marathon's 7/2 in an away win looks a spot of value to me.   Chelmsford v Whitehawk Not surprisingly the Chelmsford manager left in the week as their awful run of form continued as they lost 4-1 to Margate last weekend. I'm not sure we will see an improvement straight away and Whitehawk look a fair price at 5/4 to gain three points that they crucially need. They haven't won since losing to Dagenham in the FA Cup although they have only played three games since then and one of those was less than 48 hours after that FA Cup match. They drew against Eastbourne and then lost 1-0 to runaway leaders Ebbsfleet in their last match, so I wouldn't read too much into the fact they have lost two of their last three. They should be nice and fresh after their enforced break and I would make them odds on to win this.   Havant & Waterlooville v Basingstoke Two teams who would have been hoping to be going for promotion this season but actually find themselves the bottom two sides in the division. Basingstoke move off the bottom of the table by beating Hemel Hempstead last weekend and that was their 3rd win on the bounce. They are clearly improving and should be full of confidence at the moment. Havant won themselves last Saturday when they beat Welling in the FA Trophy, but as soon as they get back into the league they under perform. To be fair their home form isn't too bad, but even so Basingstoke are in really good heart at the moment and shouldn't be as big as 5/2 to win this.
  4. Like
    jakdhu reacted to so_what_is_it? in Scottish FA Cup > Jan 8th - 10th   
    Motherwell v Cove Rangers Going for a small punt on Marvin Johnson Anytime scorer at 5s at coral. He is playing better recently and playing non league opposition at home should be a few chances for him to get on the scoresheet. Every other bookie is not even 3s so definitely value there. 
  5. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League > Jan 9th   
    Bromley v Southport
    Bromley have finally stopped the rot with a draw against Eastleigh (were 2 up) and a win against Dover although that was helped by Dover going down to ten men. They do have the advantage of having had nearly two weeks off, but Southport's great run under their new manager shows no signs of stopping. Only Eastleigh have managed to beat them since he took over and they have won every other league game including beating Wrexham twice over Christmas. Included in that run was a 5-3 win in the reverse fixture and I think the fact there were eight goals in that game leads us to the best bet in this game. Neither team keeps many clean sheets and both have goals in them as that match shows so given I think Southport will win I think the value play is backing them to win and both teams to score which is 17/4 with Stan James.
     
    Macclesfield v Halifax
    Another side who are flying for a change of manager are Halifax and they look a completely different side under Jim Harvey. They won at Lincoln on Boxing Day and were unlucky not to do the double of them as they were much the better team on Saturday in the revers fixture. In between that they beat Wrexham. Now Macclesfield moved up into the play-off places after beating Tranmere last weekend, but they had fortune on their side as Tranmere should have got at least a point and had a goal disallowed which should have stood. I am not sure they are playing as well as their form suggests and although they are rightly favourites the 100/30 on offer with William Hill on an away win is too big give their current form.
     
    Wrexham v Woking
    Woking have had a bizarre season. They had a great start and were the first team to beat Forest Green, but after that they couldn't buy a win and dropped so far down the table that it looked like they would be in a relegation scrap. However they have managed to turn it around and they have won six of their last eight games and losing just once. Losing Dan Holman is a bit of a blow, but they have plenty of confidence at the moment which can't be said about their rivals on Saturday. As I point out above they have lost their last three games and they have actually lost four of their last five with their only win in the league coming against Torquay. Woking are actually four points clear of them in the table now and although they have played two games more it would have been near impossible to think those positions would have been possible a few weeks back. Marathon go a rather bizarre, but big price of 37/13 on an away win and that is well worth taking.
     
    Bath v Maidstone
    Maidstone had a poor run a few weeks ago as they lost four out of five games, but they have managed to bounce back with a couple of 2-1 victories over Eastbourne and Margate. Although they have lost their last two away games, there away form up to that point had been very strong and they had better form on their travels than at home. They go to a Bath side on Saturday who are in woeful form. They have lost five of their last seven league games and although their only win in that time did come against Champions elect Ebbsfleet, that is looking like a bit of a fluke result. If Maidstone hadn't lost their last two away games I would have been tempted to make them a max bet, but even so at 7/5 they are the best bet of the weekend.
     
    Chelmsford v Weston-Super-Mare
    The home side here are currently bottom of the form table having not won in their last six games although only a late Dartford goal stopped them getting the three points on Saturday. Even so they are struggling at the moment and have only won three times at home this season. Weston on the other hand are in good form at the moment and are unbeaten in their last five matches. I just can't understand why Chelmsford are odds on in places to win this especially when you consider Weston's form has been better away from home this season. Again Marathon are the best price and again it is a strange on of 54/19.
  6. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League > Jan 1st & 2nd   
    Bit annoyed as I was going to write something yesterday but as three of the four teams I wanted to back were drifting I thought I would leave it until today. Typical then that those three have now all been backed.
    First bet is Halifax. Jim Harvey has proven that actually the squad weren't anywhere near as bad as their other two managers have made out this season. Lincoln just having a slight dip in form and I would make Halifax small favs to win.
    Southport are worth backing to beat Wrexham again and were 3/1 yesterday! Still think the current price offers value and Wrexham have had a poor Christmas so far losing to both Southport and Halifax. It was a great performance for Southport to beat Barrow on Monday considering Barrow had their Boxing Day match called off.
    Truro are the Naps of the day although the odds against has all gone. Bath have been in shocking form bar a shock win against Ebbsfleet and Truro who are having a very good season were comfortable winners in the revers fixture on Boxing Day.
    The final bet is Gloucester to beat Worcester. I was at the game on Boxing Day and there was very little between the two sides and if anything Gloucester slightly edged it. A late sending off which wasn't a red card at all having seen the video replay changed the game and allowed Worcester to sneak a goal. Gloucester have actually been much better away this season and on what I saw on Boxing Day the 11/4 is very much a value play.
  7. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League > Boxing Day   
    Altrincham v Chester
      I don't understand the prices for this game and Altrincham look a big price at 23/10. Chester have struggled away from home this season. They have only won once away in their last six and that came at Southport who were in terrible form at the time. Granted they have travelled to the top two in that spell, but they could only manage a point at Boreham Wood and lost to Gateshead. Altrincham have managed some strong results at home this season and although they have dipped a little in their last six homes, there is nothing to suggest that Chester should be such strong favourites for this game. Overall Chester's only win in their last six was last Saturday against Torquay and although it was an easy win, Torquay are one of the poorer sides in the division. Altrincham performed with great credit at Cheltenham last week and I would make them slight favourites to win this game so the 23/10 is a must take.   Bromley v Eastleigh   Not surprisingly Eastleigh have already been backed, but as odds against is still available I think they are still a bet. I am not going to rewrite my thoughts on Eastleigh again, but their superb form continues. It is hard to know what has happened at Bromley given the superb form they were in has turned into losing their last five games. They have conceded 14 goals in their last five games and their defending has become a real issue. Given Eastleigh's strength in attack I find it hard to see Eastleigh not adding to their woes on Boxing Day.   Wrexham v Southport   Wrexham have only lost twice at home all season and have only lost once in their last six league games. However they have had a pretty kind fixture list of late so I am not sure the good run of form is as good as it looks. Dino Maamria has really turned Southport around since taking over and they have won four out of their five league games and won in the FA Trophy on Tuesday night at Worcester. They have beaten Macclesfield in this run and although Wrexham are the right favourites there is noway that Southport should be 6/1 shots.   Bradford Park Avenue v FCUM   Bradford are on fire at the moment. They are unbeaten in their last six league games and beat Lincoln in the FA Trophy on Monday night. They have only lost once at home all season and as long as the game gets the go ahead I think they can gain another three points. FCUM have really struggled to get to grips with the league since promotion and after being unbeaten in three they then suffered a poor loss to Gloucester City last weekend. 13/10 about the home side looks a decent bet.
  8. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League > Dec 18th & 19th   
    Dartford are my main bet this weekend. They are in decent enough form themselves and Whitehawk were out on their feet on Wednesday night at the end of the game. It was on a heavy pitch and after 120 minutes on that it is surely going to have an effect less than 72 hours later. They also were forced to use all their subs up by early on in the 2nd half which wasn't ideal either. Sometimes the tired teams can still manage to nick a result so it's not a lump on job, but the value certainly is with Dartford.
    I have also backed Halifax this weekend against Tranmere. The away side are ona very poor run of form at the moment and they look a side low on confidence and Gray Brabin is under a huge amount of pressure. Halifax obviously aren't the best side in the division, but the improvement has been there under Jim Harvey and they are a bigger price than they should be this weekend.
    The final bet is Concord at Havant. Yes Havant won for me last weekend, but FGR hardly went to win the game and Havant's league form has been dreadful. Until Concord lost to Sutton last time they were on a fantastic run of form and I fancy them to bounce back here.
  9. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in FA Trohpy and other non-league 12th December   
    Cheltenham v Chelmsford
    I am chancing my arm with four big priced selections and only one needs to win to show a profit. My theory is that the big National League teams would rather they were out instead of in the FA Trophy and the chances are they will be playing weakened teams. The last four National League champions were all knocked out of the FA Trophy in the 1st Round and I am certain that a Trophy run has certainly hindered some teams when trying to win the title. On that basis I really hope Eastleigh go out to Aldershot, but Aldershot weren't quite as big a price as I hoped so I am passing them over. Also given I don't have Cheltenham covered in the ante-post market I wouldn't mind them winning this, but a chance has to be taken on Chelmsford at a massive 9/1 with Ladbrokes.
    The funny thing about this game is that it could have been a massive local derby as Chelmsford beat Gloucester in the previous round and if Gloucester had of won then Cheltenham would have had to have gone all out for victory as the fans would not have wanted the embarrassment of losing to their big local rivals. As they have Chelmsford they can now afford to rest a few players and the fans won't really care too much if they win or lose now, especially as all they want is to get back into the Football League. Obviously the players on the pitch will still be wanting to win the game, but the incentive is so much more for Chelmsford and hopefully they can pull off a shock.
     
    Grimsby v Solihull Moors
    The theory for the above game is the same for this one, although here Grimsby have a big FA Cup game in mid-week and Solihull are a better team than Chelmsford. I can't believe that Paul Hurst or the Grimsby fans are to bothered about the FA Trophy as their season is all about trying to gain promotion. Also a chance of getting to the FA Cup 3rd Round will be more important than this and it would be no surprise to see a few players rested ahead of that tie. Solihull may have lost their first game of the season in the League last weekend, but given they were unbeaten for 17 that takes some doing. To be fair Grimsby are on a decent unbeaten run themselves, but Solihull could be more than a match for them especially if playing a weakened team. I am a little surprised Solihull are as big as they are at 61/10 (Marathon) and although they are going for promotion themselves, they will be wanting the chance to show they can perform against a team from the league above.
     
    Havant & Waterlooville v Forest Green Rovers
    Havant have been disgraceful so far this season. They spent big in the summer and how on earth Lee Bradbury is still in a job given how badly they have under performed given the strength of their team, I am however going to back them on Saturday. They have put in the odd strong performance and it is worth remembering that they came back from 3-1 down against Cheltenham in the FA Cup to force a replay. Again I expect Forest Green to rest a few players ahead of the busy Christmas period and Havant do have a talented squad who have the ability to cause problems as they showed against Chelmsford. There is enough juice in Marathon's price of 22/5 to make me want to play.
     
    Torquay v Chesham
    This bet is opposing a team who are in the National League relegation zone and are really struggling. Torquay haven't really improved all that much under their new boss and it is clear that the team isn't really good enough for the National League and they will be doing well to stay up. As we know Chesham had a superb run in the FA Cup and they fully deserved their win at Bristol Rovers. They wouldn't even need to repeat that effort to go close to winning this, but they certainly should be fancying their chances of causing another Cup shock. Marathon go 47/10 about an away win.
     
    Ryman Premier Double
    Needham Market have been flying in recent weeks. Things really seem to have clicked and they have won six of their last seven games, including a win at table topping Dulwich last weekend. Enfield have only picked up two points in their last five games and Market should be able to continue their fine form. Leiston's form has dipped in recent weeks and they have only won twice in their last eight games, but they go to Lewes who are the worst side in the league by far. They only have seven points and have lost seven of their last eight. Leiston should be picking up the three points here fairly comfortably and at 1/2 are well worth sticking in a double with Needham Market which pays just over 1.8/1 with Marathon.
  10. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League - Nov 21st   
    Altrincham v Boreham Wood
    There have been some strange market moves going on in the National League games this weekend and the move on Boreham Wood is one of them. Apart from that shock win at Bromley a couple of weeks ago they have been struggling for form and they were knocked out of the FA Cup on Monday night by Northwich Victoria a team from Step 4. They got a decent enough point last Saturday against Chester although the weather seemed to play a big part. Altrincham will probably be a little disappointed not to have picked up more points as they have been drawing or losing to the teams around them. The win against Barnsley in the FA Cup though seems to have given them a lift as they played well despite losing 3-0 to Macclesfield and although Bromley's defence gave them a few early Christmas presents last weekend, they still deserved to win the game. There probably isn't a great deal between these two sides, but given Altrincham's good form at home they have to be favourites so the fact Ladbrokes go 19/10 about a home win means they have to be backed.
     
    Chester v Woking
    There are a few matches in the National League on Saturday where it does appear to be fairly obvious who is going to win. Wrexham go to a poor at home Aldershot who played on Wednesday night, but the price has gone. Braintree host Kidderminster, but the away side do seem to be improving and Braintree had a tough game at Oxford in midweek and that is enough to put me off at odds on. Lincoln go to Torquay and should win although take the defeat at Barrow last weekend out and Torquay's recent efforts read well enough so again it is enough for me to leave alone. Welling are hard to beat at home, but Southport have a new boss and there probably isn't much difference in sides so the prices are about right. If Darren Kelly was still in charge at Halifax I would have been lumping on Gateshead, but their defending was worse when he took over so there is that unknown factor on how they will set up. Also Gateshead aren't in the greatest of form themselves. Having said that as I write they are drifting and if they went odds against I would have to get involved.
    That leads me on to the one game I am playing in that looks obvious. As I said last week when taking them on Woking are awful at the moment and in a right mess. They are a young side and they are clearly suffering because of it. There are some bad sides beneath them in the table, but I wouldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at 22/1 on them to go down. Chester are in good form themselves having only lost to Forest Green in their last five games. They are pretty strong at home and I don't understand why they aren't odds on across the board to win this. They are 15/13 with Marathon and I think that is the bet of the weekend. Hopefully I have chosen the right game to get involved in.
     
    Eastleigh v Grimsby
    I am probably boring people who follow me on Twitter about how strongly I fancy Eastleigh to win the league, or at the very least finish top 3. I am astonished they are still 14/1 for the title and you won't find better each-way value than that. Interestingly this is 3rd v 4th and the top 2 play each other as well so it is a big weekend. I can't understand why Grimsby are such strong favourites for this game. Granted they have only lost one on the road, but they have only won three and have picked up too many draws in games they should really be winning. Eastleigh are on a superb run of form since Chris Todd took over as manager and they have been beating the teams around them in the table apart from losing to Braintree early on and drawing at Cheltenham in a game they should really have won. They beat League 1 Crewe in the FA Cup and confidence has to be sky high at the moment. The one criticism is they don't keep enough clean sheets, but they should be slight favourites to win this given they are at home, currently above Grimsby in the table and arguably have a better side. Obviously the draw has to be considered given Grimsby love to draw away, but Eastleigh have only drawn once at home and the price is so wrong for me that at 12/5 (Marathon and Bet 365) that the home win has to be the bet.
     
    Basingstoke v Maidstone
    Given the home side made the play-offs last season it is amazing how badly they are doing this season. Just one win and nine points on the board from 17 games. Maidstone on the other hand are flying after promotion from the Ryman Premier and are currently sitting in the play-off places. Oddly given they play on a 3g pitch their away form has been better than their home form this season. They have won five and lost just once on their travels. They have been in really good form as well and Marathon's 11/10 looks a very good price.
  11. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League - Nov 21st   
    I tipped Eastleigh up at the start of the season and have mentioned a few times that as the price has drifted out that they are still worth backing. I personally have got a high price of 33/1 which is amazing given they were 8/1 pre season. They are currently 14/1 and I am amazed they are still as big as that and they look a cracking each way bet. They had a pretty big blip when Richard Hill decided to resign. Fair play to him for making that decision as Chris Todd has come in and had a fantastic impact. They have won six out of the eight league games he has been in charge for which has included wins over Wrexham, Tranmere, FGR and Dover. They also got a point at league leaders Cheltenham and were unlucky not to get all three as they battered them in the second half. That tremendous run of form has seen them climb to 3rd in the table and they have a game in hand over the two teams above them which if won would close the gap to three points. I still think they have the best squad in the division and they will have money to spend to strengthen it come January (especially with their FA Cup run) and apart from Forest Green it is hard to see how the others will have too much money to spare to improve their squads. Given they were 8/1 at the start of the season I don't understand why Eastleigh are bigger than that now. Cheltenham look short enough as they have had a bit of luck along the way despite only losing twice and I can't help thinking that they will go through a poor run at some point. FGR look the biggest dangers to me and Grimsby have moved up to 4th without always overly impressing. At the moment they are drawing too many away games, but if they can turn some of them into wins then they will have a say as well. There are a few teams just in behind these four and Lincoln are the ones I think most likely to break into the top four but ultimately I do think the current top four will be the top four at the end of the season.
    I said at the start of the season I would be amazed if Eastleigh weren't in the top three come April and I stand by that. The bookies seem to have missed their impressive run of results and have been way too slow to cut their odds. Quite why Wrexham deserve to be a single figure price I don't know and they certainly shouldn't be a shorter price than Eastleigh and Eastleigh are the only team to have beaten them at home. They host Grimsby at the weekend and that is another big game which hopefully they will avoid defeat in, but it wouldn't be a disaster should they happen to lose. The FA Cup run will boost confidence even more and if they could just keep a few clean sheets that would help as well. I have been backing them all season and I really do think at 14/1 they rate a fantastic e/w bet.
  12. Like
    jakdhu reacted to ricay85 in National League and other leagues and FA Trophy 14th November   
    Stand out bet for me this weekend is in the FA Trophy is
    Shaw Lane Aquaforce to beat Matlock Town at 8/5
    Despite being a league lower Shaw Lane are the stronger outfit in my humble opinion. SL have a few players who have played in the football league. The back line in solid and with 7 clean sheets from 8 i dont feel Matlock will trouble them based on how i saw Matlock play last week.Up front they seemed pretty limp. I believe i saw in the press is that the manager who is approaching 40 was even going to put himself on midweek as they need 2 more strikers. Ok they scored 3 last Saturday v Frickley but beleive me 2 of those goals were gift wrapped. No9 was left unmarked in 15 yards of space in the Frickley area. The 3rd was a complete cockup with the Frickley goalie trying to nutmeg a Matlock player in his six yard box instead of hoofing it upfield after a pass back. So unless you were there you would think the 3-0 win was a convincing display .... it was from from that.
    In contrast the Shaw Lane forward line have looked razor sharp of late and have banged in ten goals in the last two games. The 5-0 win v Basford was the most ruthless display i have seen by a NL side this season. They made a decent Basford team look very ordinary and they won in a hack canter, hard held.
    The only question mark is will they rest certain key players and take the competition seriously. I am aware their main aim is get into the national Conference within 3 seasons. With their wealthy backer not shy of spending the cash they could achieve their goal sooner rather than later. But with the final being played at Wembley there is a fair chance they will be and i am willing to take that risk considering my odds were just south of Evens. The 8/5 is very generous.
  13. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League and other leagues and FA Trophy 14th November   
    I'm away the weekend so need to put my tips up tonight.
    Just the bets for me on Saturday all the National League. Macclesfield have already been backed which is a shame as they were as big as 9/4, but I still think they rate the best bet of the weekend. On the face of it their away form isn't great, but looking at their last eight away games they have had a very tough set of fixtures. They have beaten Aldershot, Guiseley and Grimsby in that time and the defeats were all against teams currently in the top 7 of the table. They go to Woking on Saturday and although they got a point against Braintree, I think a lot of that would have been down to Braintree's tough schedule rather than any improvement from the home side. Macclesfield had a comfortable 3-0 over Altrincham on the same night and I think they should be favourites to win this which is why at just under 2/1 with Marathon they still rate a bet.
    Braintree themselves are worth backing at Halifax. Halifax's defence looked shocking yet again against Wycombe on Sunday and although they have had the rest of the week off an Braintree had that game at Woking I just don't see anything but an away win. Given Braintree have the tightest defence in the division I fancy they might only need the one goal to win this, but they are sure to get a few chances to score more than that against Halifax's defence. There is enough in the price at just odds against with Marathon for me to play.
    Aldershot may have one eye on the FA Cup game next week and they only got a draw against Southport when I backed them a couple of weeks ago, but other than that their away form is strong and they travel to a Kidderminster side who continue to look a poor side. They lost 3-1 to Chester in the week and I would be disappointed if Aldershot didn't have too much for them. Coral are best on an away win at 7/5.
  14. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in FA Cup ~ November 6th - 9th   
    Halifax v Wycombe
    Halifax are a poor National League side and have been conceding plenty of goals. They have already let in 47 in 19 league games and a Football League side should really be beating them fairly comfortably. Granted Wycombe haven't been overly prolific in front of goal in the league this season, but they should really get at least two against such a poor defensive outfit. Paddy Power are 17/10 on the -1 handicap and that looks a generous price.
    Treble
    I must admit there are 9 teams all at odds on who look good things to win over the weekend. It isn't my way to tip up a 9 team acca though so I have focused on three home sides with the treble paying 1.4/1 with Bet 365. Stalybridge have been struggling the National League North and Doncaster should be able to get past them at the first time of asking. Staines beat my side Gloucester in the previous round, but have been poor since and a good League 2 side like Leyton Orient should be beating a Ryman Premier side. On Sunday Bristol Rovers v Chesham is a similar game to the Orient one and it should be fairly routine for Rovers.
    Just to say the other teams are Dover, Grimsby, Millwall, Exeter, Wycombe and Chesterfield
  15. Like
    jakdhu reacted to bromsgrovegreen in FA Cup ~ November 6th - 9th   
    I am all over Newport at brackley like addpea, since john Sheridan took over they have beaten Wycombe and Bristol rovers and drew with Northampton last week.sheridan has stated he will be playing his strongest side and all their loanees have been cleared to play.another positive is that brackleys playing surface is quality so no excuses about the pitch being a leveller
  16. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in FA Cup ~ November 6th - 9th   
    Altrincham v Barnsley Granted Altrincham aren't in the best of form themselves, but they have caused quite a few upsets in their history and they might just be capable of pulling off another one here. League 1 Barnsley are in really poor form having lost their last five games and the last thing a team low on confidence wants is a trip to a non-league side who will be up for it from the start. Altrincham have managed some very good results at home earlier in the season so we know they do have it in them and they have some dangerous strikers who can cause Barnsley issues. Marathon go 9/2 which looks value on a home win. Crewe v EastleighThere is an element here that I have backed Eastleigh at bigger prices to win games in the league this season than they are to beat League 1 Crewe, but I still think Marathon's price of just over 3/1 offers some value. They under performed last week against a poor Halifax side, but they still got the job done and no doubt one eye was on this game. I still think they have the best squad in the National League and they go to a Crewe side who aren't exactly doing that well this season given they are currently bottom of League 1.  Wealdstone v ColchesterTo continue the theme we have another poor League 1 side in Colchester who have only won once in their last six league games. On the face of it the home side look a fairly average National League South team and obviously this is a tough tie for them. They are in very good form though as they are unbeaten in seven league games and got a massive win against top of the table Ebbsfleet last weekend. They will be full of confidence after that and really have nothing to lose against a Colchester side who are struggling on the whole. Again Marathon are best price at 19/5. Brackley v NewportInto Sunday's games now and I think Newport at odds against looks a big price. They have seen a real upturn in form since changing their manager and given the clubs non-league roots (it wasn't that long ago since they were at the same level as Brackley) they shouldn't under estimate the game. Brackley have also changed their manger in the past few weeks and their has been a little improvement, but nowhere near enough to suggest they might be capable of beating a Football League side. At 13/11 with Marathon they rate the best bet of the weekend. Northwich v Boreham WoodAn all non-league tie as Step 1 Boreham Wood travel to Step 4 Northwich. I opposed Boreham Wood in the previous round when they hosted Step 4 AFC Hornchurch and they only just got through so I think they are vulnerable again now they have to travel to a side who are having a fantastic season. Not only have they reached the First Round of the FA Cup, but they have won 12 of their 13 league games this season. It wouldn't be a massive shock if only one division separated these two next season and BetVictor's 19/5 is worth a play on a home win. 
  17. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League ~ Saturday October 17th   
    Cheltenham v Eastleigh
    I still can't believe Eastleigh are as big as 18/1 to win the title. They were my picks from the start and although they had a dodgy spell which led to Richard Hill resigning they have bounced back to win three of their last four games. Chris Todd was in charge for those games and he was confirmed as the new boss in the week which he deserves after the results on the pitch. Not only am I backing them to win on Saturday, but I am also going in again for them to win the title as I still think they will be in the top 3 at the very least come the end of April. Win this and they will be just three points behind their hosts who are around 6/1 for the title. They deserved their win on Tuesday night against current leaders FGR and I am hopeful they can beat the other Gloucestershire side on Saturday. They will be full of confidence and although it is hardly a lump on job Marathon's 39/10 is bigger than it should be.
    Guiseley v Boreham Wood
    I think there is enough in the price to back the home side here. The concern is they played so well against Wrexham on Wednesday night to get a point that they might be feeling the effects of that effort, but although Boreham Wood beat my Naps last weekend I still don't think they are playing that well. I opposed them on Tuesday and Aldershot didn't have to be at their best to beat them and I think away from home they may struggle against a Guiseley side who have been performing fairly well on the whole part recently. A point at Wrexham is more than likely deemed a bonus point, but this would surely be a game where getting a victory would be important to avoid going down. I am surprised they are as big as 28/17 with Marathon to gain the three points.
    Gosport v Ebbsfleet
    Ebbsfleet lost their first league game two weeks ago, but I think they can bounce back here. Because they had already lost in the FA Cup they had a blank weekend, whereas Gosport ended up playing a replay against Whitehawk on Tuesday night which they lost. I think that gives the away team a pretty big edge here and Gosport are having a dip in form after a strong start to the season. They have only won once in their last five league games and although they might make it hard for Ebbsfleet I suspect that the class edge will tell late on especially with fresher legs. I think Bet 365's 13/10 is a good price.
    Needham Market v Hampton & Richmond
    Hampton are in great form at the moment with their only defeat in the last six games coming against league leaders Leiston. They scored five against Hendon last Saturday and then put six past Merstham in mid-week. Their hosts are struggling after promotion and their win against Lewes two games ago was their first this season. They only have eight points and with the form the away side are in at the moment Hampton should be picking up another three points. 19/20 looks a fair price and I make them the best bet this weekend.
    Ramsbottom v Mickleover Sports
    Call me mad but I think the home side are worth a bet here. They have yet to win this season and only have three points to their name, but I think they maybe about to improve. Amazingly in their last game they got a draw against league leaders Blyth and they have had a couple of weeks off since that game. They have got some new players in and it is worth a punt that that result is a sign they are going to get a first victory. Mickleover are in poor form having lost their last three games and they have played twice since Ramsbottom played. Again not exactly a lump on job, but it could just turn out that Marathon's 77/29 turns out to be a decent bet.
  18. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in National League ~ October 2nd & 3rd   
    Altrincham v Barrow
    Given Barrow cost me a lot of money last week my initial thought was to stay clear of this game. I then saw the price the home side were though and I had to have a bet on them. The danger is that Barrow are getting their away form together as they have won and drawn one having lost their first four on the road. Even so there is no way they should be such strong favourites for this game and arguably Altrincham should probably just about be market leaders. Granted the were poor in their last home game to Braintree, but you take that out and their home form has been strong. They even managed to finally win away from home last weekend albeit against a struggling Boreham Wood side. 23/10 (BetVictor) about a home win is simply too big and has to be backed.
    Halifax v Cheltenham
    I knew it would come eventually and this weekend sees me back Cheltenham for the first time. Halifax announced their new manager on Thursday and I must admit I Darren Kelly wasn't someone I was aware off. I looked him up and found he had lasted 9 games in charge of Oldham and was sacked a couple of weeks ago having had a 2 year contract. Now that doesn't strike me as someone I would want to be managing my club even if it is a drop of a couple of leagues. To be fair he will have Jim Harvey to help him, but they have a massive task of trying to keep the side in this division. I am not sure we see much of an improvement in results and it couldn't be much tougher than facing the team third in the table. Granted I am not sure Cheltenham have been performing as well as their position in the table suggests, but they should have enough to see of Halifax and I would make them odds on to win this so the 11/10 with Hills has to be taken.
    Tranmere v Bromley
    Tranmere got a last minute winner against Cheltenham last weekend in what by all accounts was a dire game. They host a red hot Bromley side and a red hot striker in Moses Emmanuel. Now most of Bromley's wins have come against the lesser sides in the division, but they have beaten 2nd place Gateshead and the ease of their victories is impressive. I had a high view of Bromley going into the start of the season and full expected them to go well. Tranmere have been very hit and miss so far and I think they are still adjusting to life in this division. I am surprised Bromley are 7/2 with Betway and that has to be a sporting play.
    AFC Fylde v AFC Telford
    Rob Smith was angry at his Telford players yet again last weekend as they went out of the FA Cup against Kettering from the league below. He didn't hold back and said that the players weren't good enough to play National League football. He must be regretting moving their now as Steve Kittrick has clearly left the club in a right mess. This weekend they travel to second place Fylde and they are in good form at the moment. They should be able to take full advantage of a poor Telford side and I think they are worth backing at 11/10 (Paddy Power) on the -1 handicap.
    Grays v Kingstonian
    I was impressed with Grays when I saw them earlier in the season and thought they looked potential title challengers. They are going through a little blip at the moment though as they haven't won in three and they have lost two of those. They lost to a struggling Leatherhead 3-0 on Wednesday night and they had some crucial players missing as well. Quite why they are playing again so soon I am not sure, but as Kingstonian played on Monday that has to be a pretty big edge. The other thing to note is that if you take out the loss in the FA Cup last Saturday they are actually in really good form at the moment. They have won 4 of their last 5 and bounced backed from that defeat in the Cup to beat Hendon 1-0 on Monday night. They look overpriced at a general 5/2.
    Treble
    After nailing the six fold in the FA Cup last week I am looking to land a treble which pays just under 2/1 with Bet365. AFC Fylde obviously go in. Margate continued their upturn in form in the FA Cup last week and should be too strong for Weston-Super-Mare. Finally Dulwich should have little trouble in beating a VCD Athletic side who are yet to win this season.
     
  19. Like
    jakdhu reacted to Aidymac in National League ~ October 2nd & 3rd   
    Odds with Bet365

  20. Downvote
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in Non-League matches 18th/19th September   
    Paul Cox has left Torquay and I don't blame him as they look a club in a right mess with little money to spend.
  21. Downvote
    jakdhu reacted to Darran in Non-League matches 18th/19th September   
    Tricky game the Barrow one as they seem to have picked up a habit of winning 1-0 at home, but Aldershot are scoring goals so could be hard to keep a clean sheet against them. Not a game I would play in, but think Aldershot are over priced if anything. Suspect Solihull will win, but Curzon are improving and have had some good results of late. VCD are one of the leagues weakest teams, but Met Police have lost four of their last six. Not sure I would be wanting to get involved at short odds. My other suggestion is you start backing singles, not saying all trebles are a bad thing especially if you fancy a few shorties, but the more teams you put in a bet the harder it is to win. Singles are the best way to build a profit. For example if it was me doing your three picks tomorrow I would do a single on Barrow and a double on the other two. By all means due a little treble on the side and I always stick all my picks in an acca as well as a just in case they all win.
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