FA Trohpy and other non-league 12th December

[Darran]

Cheltenham v Chelmsford
I am chancing my arm with four big priced selections and only one needs to win to show a profit. My theory is that the big National League teams would rather they were out instead of in the FA Trophy and the chances are they will be playing weakened teams. The last four National League champions were all knocked out of the FA Trophy in the 1st Round and I am certain that a Trophy run has certainly hindered some teams when trying to win the title. On that basis I really hope Eastleigh go out to Aldershot, but Aldershot weren't quite as big a price as I hoped so I am passing them over. Also given I don't have Cheltenham covered in the ante-post market I wouldn't mind them winning this, but a chance has to be taken on Chelmsford at a massive 9/1 with Ladbrokes.
The funny thing about this game is that it could have been a massive local derby as Chelmsford beat Gloucester in the previous round and if Gloucester had of won then Cheltenham would have had to have gone all out for victory as the fans would not have wanted the embarrassment of losing to their big local rivals. As they have Chelmsford they can now afford to rest a few players and the fans won't really care too much if they win or lose now, especially as all they want is to get back into the Football League. Obviously the players on the pitch will still be wanting to win the game, but the incentive is so much more for Chelmsford and hopefully they can pull off a shock.
 
Grimsby v Solihull Moors
The theory for the above game is the same for this one, although here Grimsby have a big FA Cup game in mid-week and Solihull are a better team than Chelmsford. I can't believe that Paul Hurst or the Grimsby fans are to bothered about the FA Trophy as their season is all about trying to gain promotion. Also a chance of getting to the FA Cup 3rd Round will be more important than this and it would be no surprise to see a few players rested ahead of that tie. Solihull may have lost their first game of the season in the League last weekend, but given they were unbeaten for 17 that takes some doing. To be fair Grimsby are on a decent unbeaten run themselves, but Solihull could be more than a match for them especially if playing a weakened team. I am a little surprised Solihull are as big as they are at 61/10 (Marathon) and although they are going for promotion themselves, they will be wanting the chance to show they can perform against a team from the league above.
 
Havant & Waterlooville v Forest Green Rovers
Havant have been disgraceful so far this season. They spent big in the summer and how on earth Lee Bradbury is still in a job given how badly they have under performed given the strength of their team, I am however going to back them on Saturday. They have put in the odd strong performance and it is worth remembering that they came back from 3-1 down against Cheltenham in the FA Cup to force a replay. Again I expect Forest Green to rest a few players ahead of the busy Christmas period and Havant do have a talented squad who have the ability to cause problems as they showed against Chelmsford. There is enough juice in Marathon's price of 22/5 to make me want to play.
 
Torquay v Chesham
This bet is opposing a team who are in the National League relegation zone and are really struggling. Torquay haven't really improved all that much under their new boss and it is clear that the team isn't really good enough for the National League and they will be doing well to stay up. As we know Chesham had a superb run in the FA Cup and they fully deserved their win at Bristol Rovers. They wouldn't even need to repeat that effort to go close to winning this, but they certainly should be fancying their chances of causing another Cup shock. Marathon go 47/10 about an away win.
 
Ryman Premier Double
Needham Market have been flying in recent weeks. Things really seem to have clicked and they have won six of their last seven games, including a win at table topping Dulwich last weekend. Enfield have only picked up two points in their last five games and Market should be able to continue their fine form. Leiston's form has dipped in recent weeks and they have only won twice in their last eight games, but they go to Lewes who are the worst side in the league by far. They only have seven points and have lost seven of their last eight. Leiston should be picking up the three points here fairly comfortably and at 1/2 are well worth sticking in a double with Needham Market which pays just over 1.8/1 with Marathon.

[sap]

hi all

For this weekend,I fancy stocksbridge and bromley in the fa cup.In the non-league I do have a punt on burgess hill,tonbridge and buxton.

[Darran]

Why do you fancy Bromley at Braintree?

[Darran]

FGR have already said that they will be resting at least 8 first teamers for their game which is a plus.

[sap]

At this price,i think bromley is worth to put some money and maybe in my point of view braintree may be more interested in the promotion play-off rather than in this competition.

[Darran]

Braintree don't have a big squad though so not sure they have much scope to rest players. Also reaching the play-offs will be a bonus for them as it certainly wouldn't have been a target for them pre season.

[Darran]

Not surprisingly given their pitch can't handle any rain the Braintree game is off.