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Xtc12

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  1. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from jonjo in Conflict Cup   
    Double Up today 1st @ 6\4 & 13\8
    Times Are Blue 13.35 Hereford 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog)
    Champs Elysees gelding who did well to overcome both inexperience and the run of the race when making a winning debut in bumper at Plumpton in May. Obvious claims switched to hurdles. 
    Molly's Mango 17.10 Punchestown 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
    €75,000 3-y-o, Clovis Du Berlais filly. Half-sister to bumper winner Kracka Nut. Dam unraced half-sister to top-class hurdler/very smart chaser (stayed 3¼m) More of That. Appealing newcomer for top yard. 
  2. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    Double Up today 1st @ 6\4 & 13\8
    Times Are Blue 13.35 Hereford 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog)
    Champs Elysees gelding who did well to overcome both inexperience and the run of the race when making a winning debut in bumper at Plumpton in May. Obvious claims switched to hurdles. 
    Molly's Mango 17.10 Punchestown 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
    €75,000 3-y-o, Clovis Du Berlais filly. Half-sister to bumper winner Kracka Nut. Dam unraced half-sister to top-class hurdler/very smart chaser (stayed 3¼m) More of That. Appealing newcomer for top yard. 
  3. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    1st @ 15\8 today
    Makanah 15.10 Musselburgh 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 (bog)
    Smart gelding who arrives in good nick, sixth of 19 in Portland Handicap at Doncaster (5.6f, good to soft) 29 days ago. Took this event in 2020 and is very much one to consider for his in-form yard. 
    Clemmie C 13.50 Killarney 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
    Lightly-raced filly. 16/1, good fourth of 14 in handicap at Dundalk (10.7f) 17 days ago. Back down in trip. Leading claims. 
  4. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    Double Up .... 1st @ 11\10 & Evens
    Laurentia 18.30 Wolves 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog)
    C&D winner. Improved on recent efforts to win 15-runner handicap at Chelmsford City (8f, 12/1) 18 days ago. Well treated on best form and good claims again. 
    Union Park 16.40 Tipperary 1 Pt Win @ 4\1 (bog)
    Fair winner at 17f over hurdles. 12/1, creditable sixth of 13 in handicap chase at Killarney (20f, good to soft) 45 days ago, unsuited by way race developed. Expected to be bang there. 
  5. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    Oops another double ..... pair of 11\10's  
    Sunningdale 15.27 Catterick 1 Pt Win @ 10\11 (bog)
    Lightly-raced colt who took a step forward when runner-up (clear of rest) in a Lingfield nursery in August. Filled same spot in a stronger race at Ascot (7f) since and looks the one to beat.
    Heer at Dawn 14.35 Bellewstown 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 (bog)
    Creditable 1¾ lengths second of 14 to Caesar's Comet in handicap (4/1) at this course (7.8f, good) 35 days ago. Can go well again. 
  6. Like
    Xtc12 reacted to MCLARKE in MENTAL HEALTH DAY - FRIDAY 30th SEPTEMBER 2022   
    This Friday (30th September) is mental health day for all those who work for Tag Media (the new owners of Punters Lounge).
    We will be taking the day off to recharge so there will be no Naps competition on this day.
    Thursday 29th September will be the last day for this month's Naps competition.
  7. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    Double Up yesterday @ 5\2 & 3\1 .... 
    Wonderful Times 15.34 Yarmouth 1 Pt Win @ 9\4 (bog)
    Lightly-raced filly. Bit below form second of 6 in minor event (2/9) at Nottingham (10.2f) in June, headed last ½f. However, given a break since and pick of previous efforts give her sound claims here. 
    Caroline Street 15.40 Curragh 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog)
    Promising type who posted excellent 1½ lengths second of 5 to Auguste Rodin in Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown (8f, soft) 15 days ago, travelling smoothly long way. The one to beat back at 7f now. 
  8. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Fairyhouse : Hodd's Girl NR, Ocean Jewel 2nd @ 7\1, Company Keeping 2nd @ 8\1
    Listowel : Buttons and Bows 5th @ 7\1, Story Rory 3rd @ 15\2, My Gaffer 1st @ 13\2
    Listowel
    13.25 Mohawk Girl @ 16\1  1/5 1-3
    14.00 Golden Days @ 6\1  1/5 1-4
    14.35 Fit for Function @ 10\1  1/5 1-4
    15.10 Fiddlers Green @ 9\1  1/4 1-2
    15.45 Drombeg Duke @ 5\1  1/5 1-4
    16.20 Sh Boom @ 8\1  1/5 1-4
    16.55 Lord Massusus @ 9\2  1/4 1-2
    17.30 Plunkett @ 5\1  1/5 1-5

    Just came off a run of losses, 10 meetings in a row for a loss of 365 Pts, still showing a profit !
  9. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Fairyhouse : Hodd's Girl NR, Ocean Jewel 2nd @ 7\1, Company Keeping 2nd @ 8\1
    Listowel : Buttons and Bows 5th @ 7\1, Story Rory 3rd @ 15\2, My Gaffer 1st @ 13\2
    Listowel
    13.25 Mohawk Girl @ 16\1  1/5 1-3
    14.00 Golden Days @ 6\1  1/5 1-4
    14.35 Fit for Function @ 10\1  1/5 1-4
    15.10 Fiddlers Green @ 9\1  1/4 1-2
    15.45 Drombeg Duke @ 5\1  1/5 1-4
    16.20 Sh Boom @ 8\1  1/5 1-4
    16.55 Lord Massusus @ 9\2  1/4 1-2
    17.30 Plunkett @ 5\1  1/5 1-5

    Just came off a run of losses, 10 meetings in a row for a loss of 365 Pts, still showing a profit !
  10. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    Double Up - 1st @ 11\8 & 1st @ 7\4 (R4 20p)
    Breckland 16.40 Catterick 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
    3 wins from 16 runs this year. 11/4, career best when winning 10-runner handicap at this C&D (heavy) 11 days ago, always in command. Expected to be bang there. 
    Hippodrome 14.45 Gowran Park 1 Pt Win @ 2\1 (bog)
    Promising type. Very green when fifth of 9 in maiden at the Curragh (8f, good to firm, 11/1) on debut 28 days ago, running on late. Sort to improve a fair bit so he's the one to beat. 
  11. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    2nd & 1st @ 11\4 Today ......... New record for me 6 consecutive winners in Ireland 
    Baltic Voyage 13.20 Ayr 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 (bog)
    Frankel colt who proved friendless in betting but stepped up markedly on his debut effort when finishing 2.5 lengths fourth in valuable 17-runner York maiden (7f) 4 weeks ago. One to consider on the back of that. 
    Miami Girl  15.10 Naas 1 Pt Win @ 2\1  (bog)
    Fairly useful filly. 2 wins from 6 runs this year. 4¼ lengths eighth of 12 to Juliet Sierra in Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes at Salisbury (6f, good to firm, 10/1) 14 days ago. Bold show likely. 
  12. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Curragh : Gordon Bennett 5th @ 5\1, Insinuendo 2nd @ 5\1, Hamish 2nd @ 11\2, Amortentia NR
    Punchestown
    13.25 Promises to Keep @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
    14.00 Young Ireland @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
    14.35 Coins Cross @ 5\1  1/5 1-4
    15.10 The Shunter @ 13\2  1/5 1-3
    16.20 Alma Libre @ 11\2  1/5 1-4
    16.55 Insulate @ 10\1  1/5 1-4
    17.30 Wayne R Walker @ 5\1  1/5 1-4
     
  13. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Leopardstown : Zarinsk 1st @ 11\2, Rhoscolyn 5th @ 8\1, Pearls Galore 1st @ 16\1, Jesse Evans 3rd @ 12\1
    Curragh
    Gordon Bennett @ 5\1  1/5 1-6 
    Insinuendo @ 5\1  1/5 1-4
    A Case of You @ 13\2  1/5 1-5
    Thornbrook @ 10\1  1/5 1-4
    Marbaan @ 7\1  1/4 1-2
    Hamish @ 11\2  1/5 1-3
    As It Was @ 7\1 1/5 1-3
    Amortentia @ 10\1  1/5 1-6

     
  14. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Cork : Foniska 2nd @ 6\1, Invincible Cry NR, Bells On Her Toes 3rd @ 15\2, Miracles In May 3rd @ 16\1
    Laytown
    16.50 Elanora @ 9\2  1/4 1-3
    17.20 Arcanears @ 9\2  1/4 1-3
    17.55 Helen De Pourtales @ 10\1  1/5 1-3
    18.25 Sweeping Statement @ 7\1  1/5 1-3
    18.55 Monzoon @ 5\1  1/4 1-3
    19.25 Camdeboo @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
     
  15. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Galway : Maristella 1st @ 5\1, You Owe Me Money 3rd @ 6\1, Thank's Monica 3rd @ 7\1, The Truant 4th @ 6\1, Sidiriya 1st @ 12\1
    Cork
    16.05 Foniska @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
    16.40 Pollanassa @ 13\2  1/5 1-3
    17.10 Invincible Cry @ 11\2  1/5 1-3
    17.45 Bells On Her Toes @ 13\2  1/5 1-6
    18.15 Autocrat @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
    19.15 Miracles In May @ 16\1  1/5 1-6
  16. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Galway : Fennor Cross 3rd @ 8\1, Just Jacob 6th @ 7\1, The Very Man 3rd @ 15\2, Robindevidastar NR, Watch House Cross NR, Drumcliff 5th @ 13\2
    Galway
    16.05 Magnetar @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
    16.40 Sir Antonino @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
    17.10 Maristella @ 5\1  1/5 1-5
    17.40 Starry Heavens @ 7\1  1/5 1-3
    18.10 You Owe Me Money @ 6\1  1/5 1-5
    18.40 Thanks Monica @ 7\1  1/5 1-5
    19.10 The Truant @ 6\1  1/5 1-5
    19.40 Sidiriya @ 12\1  1/5 1-3

  17. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Navan : Curraheen Princess 1st @ 7\1, Selador NR, Spirituoso 1st @ 9\1, Men of Dreams 5th @ 11\2, Swelltime 2nd @ 11\2
    Wexford : Lenebane 2nd @ 5\1, Tullybeg 1st @ 5\1, Where's Bunny 4th @ 13\2
    Galway
    16.10 Fennor Cross @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
    16.40 Just Jacob @ 7\1  1/5 1-6
    17.15 The Very Man @ 15\2  1/5 1-3
    17.45 Beechroad Winnie @ 8\1  1/5 1-5
    18.15 Robindevidstar @ 11\2  1/5 1-5
    18.45 Watch House Cross @ 7\1  1/4 1-2
    19.15 Drumcliff @ 13\2  1/5 1-5
    19.45 Google De L'ecu @ 11\2  1/5 1-3
  18. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from kroni in ODDS ON SELECTIONS TRIAL   
    My thread "Short Priced Favs" runs from November to the end of the Cheltenham Festival, as I prefer NH Racing.  I think the best horses are trained for the Cheltenham Festival and the main protagonists are usually on the scene around November and they are always out to win. I know you will not get one of them running everyday but if not there will almost always be an odds on shot running. I just had a look at the NH racing from 19th November 2021 to 18th March 2022 to see how betting on short priced favourites faired out. 
    The selections were the shortest odds favourite (SP Forecast) in a NH race in UK/Ireland. 
    Now as we have no control on the market the selection may not open up as odds on when the betting markets are produced.
    For the test there were 112 selections. There were 78 winners to give a strike rate of 69.64%. Ten of the winners returned odds of Evens or higher. 45 of the winners were at odds 1/2 or worse, while 10 of those were odds of 1/5 or smaller. The other 23 winners were between the odds of 8\15 and evens.
    On a £10 single stake (with BOG) these would have produced a return on Investment of 7.82%.
    The highest priced winner was Kansas City Chief @ 5\2, who was the shortest priced favourite the night before at 15\8.
    Hope this is helpful some way @MCLARKE. 
  19. Thanks
    Xtc12 got a reaction from Yalwen in ODDS ON SELECTIONS TRIAL   
    My thread "Short Priced Favs" runs from November to the end of the Cheltenham Festival, as I prefer NH Racing.  I think the best horses are trained for the Cheltenham Festival and the main protagonists are usually on the scene around November and they are always out to win. I know you will not get one of them running everyday but if not there will almost always be an odds on shot running. I just had a look at the NH racing from 19th November 2021 to 18th March 2022 to see how betting on short priced favourites faired out. 
    The selections were the shortest odds favourite (SP Forecast) in a NH race in UK/Ireland. 
    Now as we have no control on the market the selection may not open up as odds on when the betting markets are produced.
    For the test there were 112 selections. There were 78 winners to give a strike rate of 69.64%. Ten of the winners returned odds of Evens or higher. 45 of the winners were at odds 1/2 or worse, while 10 of those were odds of 1/5 or smaller. The other 23 winners were between the odds of 8\15 and evens.
    On a £10 single stake (with BOG) these would have produced a return on Investment of 7.82%.
    The highest priced winner was Kansas City Chief @ 5\2, who was the shortest priced favourite the night before at 15\8.
    Hope this is helpful some way @MCLARKE. 
  20. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Curragh : Gulf of Mexico 2nd @ 13\2, Magic Chegaga 2nd @ 11\2, Walking On Clouds 5th @ 7\1, Woodcock Flight 2nd @ 9\1
    Downpatrick
    13.50 Television @ 14\1  1/5 1-3
    14.25 Jazz Ranger @ 15\2  1/5 1-4
    15.00 Who's Houdini @ 7\1  1/5 1-3
    15.35 Ask Charlie @ 11\1  1/5 1-4
    16.10 Mr Caplan @ 7\1  1/4 1-2
    16.45 Shantou Sisu @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
    17.20 The Greek @ 9\1  1/5 1-3
    Roscommon
    16.20 Kings Time @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
    16.55 Soyounique @ 11\2  1/5 1-4
    17.30 Earls @ 5\1  1/5 1-4
    18.00 Astelia @ 11\2  1/5 1-3
    18.30 Magellan Strait @ 9\1  1/4 1-2
    19.00 Derry Lad @ 6\1  1/5 1-5
    19.30 Theonewedreamof @ 7\1  1/5 1-4

  21. Haha
    Xtc12 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Week 3 Table & Week 4 Chat   
    Checked the Paddy Power betting and I am favourite for the sack. My Fans Only squad are great at posing for photoshoots but, when it comes to putting the ball in the net, pure useless !
     
  22. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    Update
    Year 6

    Bad reading for Year 6. Still think I can turn GB around but this will probably be the last year for the Irish selections. 
    For the Irish selections the first year showed a profit of 14.1 %, but since then every year has been at a loss, the worse was Year 2 with a loss of 22.75 Pts / -8.4 %. This years stats for Ireland above shows that year 6 will be worse again. I actually have just come off my worse run of 14 consecutive losses.
    Overall

    As can be seen the overall strike rate for GB is 38.6% but the Year 6 strike rate is down to 34.29%, 4.3% below the average.
    Doubles

    Just in case anybody follows the doubles. Yes due to the consistently bad run of the Irish selections Year 6 is a disaster.
     
  23. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Conflict Cup   
    8th & 3rd yesterday
    Dowally 17.00 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
    Highland Reel filly. Closely related to several winners, including 9f winner Norma and 1¼m-1½m winner Nigel and half-sister to useful 1½m-1¾m winner Stanley. Dam 2-y-o 1m winner. 17/2, second of 11 in novice event at Kempton (8f) on debut 12 days ago, rallying. Likely to improve.
  24. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Conflict Cup   
    Update
    Year 6

    Bad reading for Year 6. Still think I can turn GB around but this will probably be the last year for the Irish selections. 
    For the Irish selections the first year showed a profit of 14.1 %, but since then every year has been at a loss, the worse was Year 2 with a loss of 22.75 Pts / -8.4 %. This years stats for Ireland above shows that year 6 will be worse again. I actually have just come off my worse run of 14 consecutive losses.
    Overall

    As can be seen the overall strike rate for GB is 38.6% but the Year 6 strike rate is down to 34.29%, 4.3% below the average.
    Doubles

    Just in case anybody follows the doubles. Yes due to the consistently bad run of the Irish selections Year 6 is a disaster.
     
  25. Haha
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MinellaWorksop in Week 3 Table & Week 4 Chat   
    Checked the Paddy Power betting and I am favourite for the sack. My Fans Only squad are great at posing for photoshoots but, when it comes to putting the ball in the net, pure useless !
     
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