Xtc12

Hi @harry_rag @MCLARKE I will put my selection in here don’t won’t to clog yours and mine will not have the bonus that often hopefully will be profitable as been up till now 😂👍

Another Double yesterday 1st @ 6\5 & 1st @ 2\1 
Cue's Beau 17.30 Chelmsford 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
Sent off at big odds (100/1) but produced a promising first effort when second of 14 in minor event at Kempton (7f) on debut 22 days ago, finishing strongly. Can open her account. 
Final Decision 18.50 Kilbeggan 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 (bog)
Much improved when third of 15 in mares maiden bumper at Thurles (16.3f, good to soft, 11/2) 56 days ago. Leading contender. 
 

1st @ 13\8 & 1st @ 5\4 (R4 25p) yesterday
Vetiver 15.25 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog)
Built on debut second when cosily winning 8-runner novice at this course (7.4f, good to soft) in September. Definitely more to come from her. Leading claims. 
Striking 19.15 Gowran Park 1 Pt Win @ 2\1 (bog)
Promising individual. 80/1, second of 21 in novice hurdle at Fairyhouse (16f, good to soft) 10 days ago. Back up in trip and could be well weighted in this sphere. 

1.45 Notlongtillmay
2.25 Mill Green
3.00 Springwell Bay
3.35 Champ
4.15 Nasalaam
5.15 Le Milos
6.20 Centara

1.45 Bronn
2.20 Camprond
2.55 Inthepocket
3.30 Fakir D'Oudairies
4.05 Al Dancer
4.40 Absolute Notions
5.15 Parramount

1st @ 5\2 yesterday
In the Giving 15.45 Leicester 1 Pt Win @ 4\5 (bog)
Fair filly. 2/1, creditable second of 9 in handicap at Southwell (7.1f) 8 days ago. Expected to be bang there. 
Clounmacon 19.10 Dundalk 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 (bog)
Made the frame all 3 starts as a juvenile, ending campaign with fourth of 17 in maiden at the Curragh (6f, soft) in October, not ideally placed. Sets the standard on form. 

1.45 Banbridge
2.20 Zenta
2.55 Shishkin
3.30 Constitution Hill
4.05 Winged Leader
4.40 Third Time Lucki
5.15 Seeyouinmydreams

Man C @ 1.25
Man U @ 1.5
Newcastle @ 2.05
£13 Treble please

Started this a year ago and after 1990 bets it has shown a profit of 397.86 for a ROI of 2.00%. All bets were 5Pts EW.
After digging a bit deeper into the results from the 26 Irish Tracks it showed that 14 of the tracks ended up in profit. Punchestown, Fairyhouse and Killarney all had big losses. Maybe this has something to do with festivals being held at the courses. (Just a thought)
Seven of the tracks had over 100 bets, 4 of them ended up with a loss, ranging from 112.59 to 392.13.
Naas, Cork and Dundalk (the meeting with most bets - 258) ended up with a profit of 378.08, 194.13 & 85 respectively.
The results for the year appear in the previous post, now if I just follow the tracks that showed profit (hindsight is a great thing) the table would look like this :

**The question now is, should I continue to follow all the tracks or just tose that show profit ????

Option 4 please
No matter what we do it has to be a level playing field otherwise in my view its not a fair competition.

Anyone quoting authenticity needs to consider authenticity in the context of the competition and not necessarily re bookies and betting in the real world, i say this because in effect the comp is as authentic as a nine bob note because where in the real world do 30+ out of 90 people bet on 100+ shots on the 27th 28th 29th 30th of the month? In effect the Naps comp is more akin to a fantasy football comp. Its a bit of fun that all people can have a go at at no cost. To support my argument try putting a rule in that says you have to prove you backed your nap to a fiver and see how many pick 66/1+ naps. Lets keep it as it is, a fun comp and just give everyone an equal chance of winning and like i and others have said if it isn't broken don't fix it.

1st @ 11\8 yesterday
Monjules 15.30 Fontwell 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog)
Bidding for a C&D hat-trick and to make it 4-5 since joining Harry Fry. A further 6 lb rise demands another career best but he could well be capable of it. 

Big question! Can you find a good reason why your selection method should be profitable at some tracks and not others? I'd want to be convinced it wasn't just random before I changed the approach, in case I ended up just betting at the profitable tracks in time for regression to the mean to kick in (more winners at the "bad" tracks and more losers at the "good" ones).
I think sometimes you have a sample size that is just about big enough to be meaningful overall but when you start breaking it down into smaller categories you end up observing things that are statistically insignificant. I've never done it but I always wonder if my data might tell me that players with an odd number of letters in their name were more profitable than those with an even number, or short names v long names, but I'd obviously assume that was an anomaly. When you look at categories that could be relevant (like courses for instance) it's harder to tell whether you should trust what the stats are telling you.

Started this a year ago and after 1990 bets it has shown a profit of 397.86 for a ROI of 2.00%. All bets were 5Pts EW.
After digging a bit deeper into the results from the 26 Irish Tracks it showed that 14 of the tracks ended up in profit. Punchestown, Fairyhouse and Killarney all had big losses. Maybe this has something to do with festivals being held at the courses. (Just a thought)
Seven of the tracks had over 100 bets, 4 of them ended up with a loss, ranging from 112.59 to 392.13.
Naas, Cork and Dundalk (the meeting with most bets - 258) ended up with a profit of 378.08, 194.13 & 85 respectively.
The results for the year appear in the previous post, now if I just follow the tracks that showed profit (hindsight is a great thing) the table would look like this :

**The question now is, should I continue to follow all the tracks or just tose that show profit ????

Another Double Up .... 1st @ 6\4 & 6\5 .... lost 9\4 because of BOG
Eight Mile 13.20 Lingfield 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 
5/2, run best excused when fifth of 11 in handicap at this course (7f, AW) 4 days ago, having hopeless task from position. Major player upped in trip. 
Music of Tara 16.40 Wexford 1 Pt Win @ Evens  
Promising type. Remains a maiden after 7 hurdle runs. Good second of 26 in handicap hurdle at Navan (20f, good to soft, 4/1) 27 days ago. Sets a good standard. 

BOG : Limerick - 12/1, 5/1, 7/1, 13/2, 14/1
Naas - 8/1, 5/1, 5/1, 6/1, 15/2, 8/1

Navan : Seeingisbelieving 1st @ 5\1, Secret Rock 4th @ 13\2, Unchained Melody 3rd @ 10\1, Everylittlestep 3rd @ 5\1, Drumroll 1st @ 9\1
Limerick
14.50 Friends N Commerce  1/5 1-3
15.25 Crowsatedappletart  1/5 1-4
16.00 Alpesh Amin  1/5 1-4
16.35 Hanoi Jane  1/5  1-5
17.10 Katherine  1/5 1-3
Naas
13.57 Night Sparkle 1/5 1-3
15.07 Doyen Ta Win  1/5 1-3
15.42 Crafty Gael  1/5  1-5
16.17 Clear the Clouds  1/5 1-6
16.52 Morrie in the Quarry  1/5  1-6
17.22 He's My Hero  1/5 1-3

Double Up .... Pair of 11\8 's
Lissen to the Lady 15.55 Hexham 1 Pt Win @ 6\4
Reliable sort who resumed winning ways in 15-runner handicap hurdle over C&D (heavy) 14 days ago. Up 4 lb but another bold showing is very much on the cards. 
So Des Flos 14.15 Limerick 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 
Thrice-raced maiden. Third of 11 in novice hurdle (4/1) at Thurles (23.7f, good to soft) 35 days ago. Cheekpieces on 1st time. Big player. 

Personally I would just go with SP if nothing else it must make life easier for our hard working competition organiser. 
 
Ken

Arsenal @ 1.25
Man C @ 1.2
Man U @ 1.44
£20 Treble please

Double Up 1st @ 6\4 & 1st @ 2\1
Lilith  15.15 Market Rasen 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog)
Won 3 of her last 5 starts, latest a 4-runner mares' handicap chase at Carlisle (20.9f, good to soft) 43 days ago, responding well. 3 lb rise fair and looks sure to go well again. 
Shean Glory 15.40 Clonmel 1 Pt Win @ 3\1 (bog)
C&D winner last month and backed that up with creditable second of 16 here (16f, soft, 7/2) 19 days ago. 2 lb rise fair and another bold bid anticipated. 

Always interesting to view, I admire your persistence
My threads on odds on selections are not going well, I am managing to beat SP by 7% but SP returns have been a lot lower than in previous years.
I was 15 points down after 3 months but 4 points up in the next 5 so there is still hope.

1st yesterday @ 6\5, to make things better than it was for this year.

So to have a look at the table in detail.
The number of winners was the 3rd lowest in the 14 years. Total Won is down in 8th place, which means that the loss is the third time it has occurred but it is well below the disaster of 2019/2020.
The Strike Rate 62.37% was the fifth lowest and was 2.35% lower than the average. Was probably about 6 winners short.
Usually I keep an eye on the jockeys, even though it does not effect my selection. For those that had 3 or more rides :

As can be seen above Paul Townend is the man you want on your odds -on selection and lo and behold B.Hughes, Champion Jockey is the man to bypass. 
Overall - 14 years

Still in profit, so will be back in November.
 

10 in a row   last day of Year 6
Elisheva  19.15 Newcastle 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
Modest mare. Winner at Kempton in March. Good second of 11 in handicap at this course (7.1f, 11/2) 8 days ago, clear of rest. Leading claims. 
Stuzzikini 13.50 Down Royal 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog)
Lightly-raced maiden under NH rules. Bit below form second of 16 in novice hurdle (5/2) at Fairyhouse (16f, good to soft) 37 days ago. Sets a solid standard on Punchestown effort prior to that. 
 
 
 

10 in a row   last day of Year 6
Elisheva  19.15 Newcastle 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
Modest mare. Winner at Kempton in March. Good second of 11 in handicap at this course (7.1f, 11/2) 8 days ago, clear of rest. Leading claims. 
Stuzzikini 13.50 Down Royal 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog)
Lightly-raced maiden under NH rules. Bit below form second of 16 in novice hurdle (5/2) at Fairyhouse (16f, good to soft) 37 days ago. Sets a solid standard on Punchestown effort prior to that.