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Xtc12 got a reaction from Focus71 in Naps - Sunday Sept 1st
16.20 Cork - Chagall - 1 pt win @ 11/1 WHill
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Xtc12 reacted to Torque in Correct score
To illustrate the point, on the exchanges right now you can back Spurs to win 3-0 @ 8.8 (which is about 8.4 taking into account 5% commission) and you can back Spurs to win 3-1 @ 13 (which is about 12.5 taking into account 5% commission) - that's better than the 7.5 and 11 that you've got about those two scores and the more you bet at prices like that where you aren't getting the best price the more you eat into any edge that this system might have. What I mean is that in the best case scenario where this approach has value, you're eating into your profits by taking inferior prices. In the worst case scenario where this approach doesn't have any value, you're increasing your losses by taking inferior prices.
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Xtc12 reacted to Torque in Correct score
I don't want to be a party-pooper @Xtc12 but in the long run I don't see how this can work. Correct score margins are enormously in favour of the bookies so if you bet with them it's like trying to win a race on one leg - it could work on the exchanges though where the prices are much fairer. Best of luck in any case
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Pirate53 in Correct score
I began looking back through the Betting Systems thread since the start and one thing came up a lot in the first 25 pages Correct Scores Strategy. This is based on getting better value on home teams by betting on the correct scores in their favour instead.
The first bet will be on Solihull Moors who play Ebbsfleet. My odds will be taken from Boyles so you may get better odds if you fish around.
To stake £30 on Solihull @ 4/9 Will give you a profit of 13.33.
Taking 5 scores 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1 and Dutch them will give me a profit of 18.31.
Now Boyles have a bet that consists of groups of scores - 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, @ 8/5 and 3-0 , 3-1 & 3-2 @ 4/1. Dutching these gives me an extra score and a profit of 21.32.
Betting £30 (dutching) on the group betting will give me a return of 51.32.
Bet 1
Solihull Moors v Ebbsfleet
Correct Score Groups
1-0, 2-0, 2-1 @ 8/5
3-0, 3-1, 3-2 @ 4/1
£30 Dutched will give me a return of £51.32
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Xtc12 reacted to freddie01 in When should I increase my stake.
Only my opinion but I think a lot of people lose long term because they stake too much of their bank all the time. This is assuming that they're keeping records of course. A £100.00 start bank and betting £10 is a big hit to take if it loses. Obviously a £1 bet that loses wont hurt as much. Bet what you're happy to lose. I think most of it is mind games and about keeping a relaxed state of mind.
Hope that makes sense. Good luck.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from only1woz in Correct score
I began looking back through the Betting Systems thread since the start and one thing came up a lot in the first 25 pages Correct Scores Strategy. This is based on getting better value on home teams by betting on the correct scores in their favour instead.
The first bet will be on Solihull Moors who play Ebbsfleet. My odds will be taken from Boyles so you may get better odds if you fish around.
To stake £30 on Solihull @ 4/9 Will give you a profit of 13.33.
Taking 5 scores 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1 and Dutch them will give me a profit of 18.31.
Now Boyles have a bet that consists of groups of scores - 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, @ 8/5 and 3-0 , 3-1 & 3-2 @ 4/1. Dutching these gives me an extra score and a profit of 21.32.
Betting £30 (dutching) on the group betting will give me a return of 51.32.
Bet 1
Solihull Moors v Ebbsfleet
Correct Score Groups
1-0, 2-0, 2-1 @ 8/5
3-0, 3-1, 3-2 @ 4/1
£30 Dutched will give me a return of £51.32
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Xtc12 reacted to Kingdom for in When should I increase my stake.
Wow! what a question and probably the most relevant one around for people who bet real money (e.g. me).
WARNING! A lot of words. Read slowly, stop, think of comments, save the comments, read on. Critique the post in here so that I have a chance to to take my time digesting the comments and then confirm my agreement to the comments. ? Also to allow other PL members to see the input.
History first: I have had at least one betting account since 2001. My accounts (plural now), IN TOTAL, are up. One is significantly up, 1 is up, 2 are down. By the end of this week I will have "only" 3 accounts, cashing out 100% on the 1 is up account because I am not happy with them. Important to reflect that the significantly up account gives out rewards for certain amount of money placed regularly and that has contributed to my profit as well as contributed to losses as I try to make the money deadline and place at times frivilous bets. My profits (and losses) are not not solely from horse racing. I will guess at 98%+ from horse racing. But have gained money with one-offs in other sports.
Admin: I am stating this now. For me, it is as important as doing the research for betting and determining what stake plan. I will not remember correctly what my betting habits are if I do not record it. The record proves the facts; the accounts go up and they go down, there is no straight line graph, there will peaks and troughs, some troughs are dangerously low. I have to remember what money I placed on the accounts and when and what money I withdrew. The mind, my mind, will play tricks and I will remember the good times only when I am having a good day, and the bad times only on the reverse.
Phew! At last staking plan. My first premise was what can I afford to spend so that I am having at least some fun, intensity, nervousness, excitement ("FINE") AND accept I might lose it all. My staking plan includes time off. What?! I will not bet if there is nothing "worthwhile" to bet on, or I am feeling distant about the outcome, or I am feeling euphoric or if I am not feeling good about myself (provided that I am comfortable about reaching the one account money bet target). My records indicate where I have had success and surprising failures.
Second, I read dozens of articles on how much to bet. There are so many theories but the one that keeps striking me is to bet only what I can afford AND I will would not throw a tantrum (or become criminal) if I did. Bet only enough such that I can derive some of that "FINE"energy whatever the outcome. Sure I can get moments of frustration when "my" horse comes in second or whatever. C'est la vie! The stake. For me it was 1% to 2%, PER BET, depending on my confidence levels of at least some return. e.g. I might more if I did not foresee more than a couple of dangers in the race AND the odds were high AND I was given scope to net a nice return even if the horse placed if`I went EW. That was it and subject to one other criteria that is it. The other criteria is the number of bets I am doing in a day. The percentage bet, PER BET, will decrease if I have a lot of bets to place in a short period. You? - I can only suggest. Me? I revise the WHAT on which I base my percentage, up or down, as I go through levels. So as a beginner I bet 1% of my first deposit. Got successful, account went to depost plus 25%. That deposit plus 25% became the amount on which I based my 1%.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Lameer half in Naps - Tuesday Aug 13th
19.15 Carlisle - Cliff Bay - 1 pt win @ 9/2 WHill
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Xtc12 reacted to harry_rag in When should I increase my stake.
Nice and simple then!
I'd stick to what I said then, either make your initial stake 1% of bank or, if you want to wait till you feel confident, take the 1% of (Bank - 100) once you've doubled your bank.
Good luck, whatever you choose to do.
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Xtc12 reacted to giraldi in When should I increase my stake.
I think it is a very important topic.
Until one of the experienced guys will help us with the answer I will say my opinion.
I think that one of the mistake the player does is to increase the stake too early. We have to understand that betting is a game of probabilities and the probability to lose all bets for the rest of our life is not 0. It is extremely small but is not 0. Of course this is an extreme example..
The most logical answer is to increase to 2 units when your bank is 200, in order to keep 1% from bank. Probably this would say most of the players.
The second logical answer would be to never increase the stake, and to save every 100 you get. Probably this would say just a few.
I prefer a combination: I would keep the stake 1 until I have 300, then save 100 and increase the stake to 2.
Now I have 200 and stake 2, still 1% but have 100 saved (my real pofit). A few comments here: Another mistake can be done is to think that the balance you see on your bookie, under your account are yours. No, the money are yours only when save them to your bank account.
Will keep it until I have 400, then save 100 and increase to 3...
And so on
As I said, this is what I think in this Monday early morning, the worst hours for my brain in the entire week
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Xtc12 got a reaction from LeMale in Naps - Saturday Aug 3rd
15.40 Goodwood - Khaadem - 1 pt win @ Bet365
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Focus71 in Naps - Saturday Aug 3rd
15.40 Goodwood - Khaadem - 1 pt win @ Bet365
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in Win Both Halves
Going to give this a whack for the new season. Starting Bank £100. Bet 2% bankroll.
First Bet will be a Saturday double, made up of a UK game and a European Game. If it is successful winnings will be put on a single on Sunday.
Double
Celtic @ 5/4
VVV Venlo @ 9/2
£2 Double
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Kingdom for in 2019 Goodwood Competition - Day 3 Selections
150 Gd:Almania
225 Gd:Golden Horde
300 Gd:Jalmoud
335 Gd:Channel
410 Gd:Picture Frame
445 Gd:Vividly
520 Gd:Tinto
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Xtc12 got a reaction from LeMale in Naps - Friday July 26th
16.45 Ascot - Only Spoofing - 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Ladbrokes
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Xtc12 got a reaction from BillyHills in Naps - Friday July 26th
16.45 Ascot - Only Spoofing - 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Ladbrokes
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Focus71 in Naps - Friday July 26th
16.45 Ascot - Only Spoofing - 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Ladbrokes
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Xtc12 got a reaction from LeMale in Naps - Thursday July 25th
20.20 Limerick - All the Angels - 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 Paddy Power
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Focus71 in Naps - Thursday July 18th
1640 Hamilton - Retirement Beckons 11/2 William Hill
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Coco69 in Naps - Thursday July 18th
1640 Hamilton - Retirement Beckons 11/2 William Hill
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Xtc12 got a reaction from LeMale in Naps - Sat 13th July
13.45 Ascot - Tis Marvellous 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 bet365
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Coco69 in Naps - Sat 13th July
13.45 Ascot - Tis Marvellous 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 bet365
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Jnmarc in Naps - Sat 13th July
13.45 Ascot - Tis Marvellous 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 bet365