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Xtc12 got a reaction from Hotspur88 in Naps - Saturday 3rd April
15.58 Carlisle - Storm Nelson - 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 Bet365
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Xtc12 reacted to harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Well done on today's winner, lest we forget the main purpose of the thread (and betting in general) amidst all the (admittedly enthralling, for me at least) discussion of staking plans!
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Staking Plan Discussions (singles v doubles or trebles etc.)
@harry_rag those 597 bets were broken up into trebles (my way stop at a loss) so this is the returns for the singles. It may seem unusual that I have less singles but the trebles contained Non Runners the singles don't, if that makes sense.
Singles from the same dates
I am going to check over the trebles just to see if I am right.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Staking Plan Discussions (singles v doubles or trebles etc.)
Yes your description above describes it perfectly.
The only thing different
Thank you @harry_ragfor helping me to pass away a few hours. As our views differ in how it should be recorded, I think I will continue to record my way as its what my bank balance states.
Maybe someone else can add to the conversation.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Three Day Treble (Horses)
@MCLARKE just to give you a quick rundown on how it works for me.
I do a treble over three days, one selection a day. The odds are usually 3\1, 2\1 & Evens or as close as I can get to those odds.
Once I have a loser I start a new treble. So if all selections win for a 1 Pt stake I get 24 Pts back.
If the 1st selection wins the winnings go on day 2 selection and so on.
If the first selection is a loser I start a new treble the next day (so once I hit a loser a new treble is started the next day). This allows me to get BOG on all selections and you could also get offers like "get your money back if your selection is 2nd to the Fav".
I hope this clears things up. If you have anymore questions post on harry_rags new thread.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Staking Plan Discussions (singles v doubles or trebles etc.)
@harry_rag I have done calculations on the following :
From 26\04\2019 until 29\03\2021
I have still kept the trebles at stop at a loss.
The stake for each bet has been taken into account as above
Total Bets 597
Total Win Bets 228
Total Stake 6792.07
Total Returns 7636.42
Profit 844.35
ROI 12.43%
Compare this to counting £5 Treble as per my thread from the same dates :
Total Bets 399
Total Win Bets 30
Total Stake 1995
Total Returns 2863.21
Profit 868.21
ROI 43.52%
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
@MCLARKE just to give you a quick rundown on how it works for me.
I do a treble over three days, one selection a day. The odds are usually 3\1, 2\1 & Evens or as close as I can get to those odds.
Once I have a loser I start a new treble. So if all selections win for a 1 Pt stake I get 24 Pts back.
If the 1st selection wins the winnings go on day 2 selection and so on.
If the first selection is a loser I start a new treble the next day (so once I hit a loser a new treble is started the next day). This allows me to get BOG on all selections and you could also get offers like "get your money back if your selection is 2nd to the Fav".
I hope this clears things up. If you have anymore questions post on harry_rags new thread.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Staking Plan Discussions (singles v doubles or trebles etc.)
As you had 180 bets under the "staking plan " you could not have had a total stake of more than 168 pts. You had 6 winning trebles (18 of your 180 selections - 6 Pts staked) if all the rest were losers you would have staked another 162 pts. As I don't know the order the other 72 selections won I cant say how much you would have staked in total.
Lets take it as the best case scenario, the other 72 winning bets all won creating 36 doubles.
What we have now is 180 selections
90 winners - which includes 6 trebles (18 selections)
36 doubles (72 selections)
90 losing singles.
In total it turns out we had 6+36+90 bets = 132 bets or 132 pts staked
Each treble - all odds 6/5 returns 10.65 .......... 6 trebles returns 63.90 Pts
This in turn gives a loss of 58.1 Pts
@harry_rag its not going to make a difference to what I have stated above in this post "a loss of 58.1 Pts" but did you just do 60 trebles from the 180 selections or did you stop the treble at a loss.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Staking Plan Discussions (singles v doubles or trebles etc.)
Even though you have placed 12 on the third leg you still have only spent 1 Pt from your initial Bank. Do not count the loss until the bet is complete. If you do a £5 treble on a Saturday, you do not lose more than £5 and only when you have a loser. If the first two win at the odds we have been using and the final one loses you have only lost £5 not £60 that was placed on the last bet.
Will have a read on and come back with some more info. Thanks, we will get to the end of it.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Bamford in WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
@Bamford unlucky with Fleetwood !
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Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Three Day Treble (Horses)
@MCLARKE yes in total agreement with you and
if I take a snapshot of the system at different periods your comment could be perfectly correct also. I think it all depends, and I could be totally wrong saying this ..... if you join a system at anytime after the start the results could turn out to be totally different. With my own system here for the singles the ROI for the two years is 10.94% since I started the thread here a year ago the ROI is 10.71%. SR for both is quiet similar.
For the trebles ROI for the two years is 43.52% while since I started the thread it is 5.58% SR for both is 7.5% and 6.63%.
Don't know if this answers your question ?
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Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Three Day Treble (Horses)
I had tested this for a year previous to starting this thread and for the two years the trebles are showing a ROI of 43.52 % while for the same period the singles are showing a ROI of 10.94%. So basically that is where I got my original expectations.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Hotspur88 in Naps - Tuesday 30th March
17.20 Warwick - Blairgowrie - 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 Bet365
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Well say I start a treble today, singles will be done also. The treble turns out to be a winning treble. Let's say the odds are 3/1, 2/1, Evens.
My three singles will give me a return of 9pts a profit of 6 pts. that is on an outlay of 3 Pts for a ROI of 200%.
Now if I do the same horses in my treble it will return 24 pts for a 1 pt bet giving me a profit of 23 pts and an ROI of 2300%.
I hope this clears up why my reasoning of having a higher expected return for the trebles than the singles.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from gbettle in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Well now that Cheltenham is over we are back to normal life, if this coronavirus would go away.
How many times would you pick three winners in a day and actually have them done in a treble ? How many times would you have a treble up ?. Would you get BOG on the treble ?
I am going to do a treble over three days, one a day which will guarantee better odds.
I will " Cash Out ", very rarely if the odds drift and the first two horses pay 20\1.
A non - runner will act just like if it was a treble done on the same day.
The selections will be picked from my fancied horses every day - Day 1 will be odds of 3/1 or near, day 2 - 2\1 and Day 3 - Evens which will give me a treble of 23\1.
If I cannot get the price required I will pick the fancy just below the odds (so if my selection is day 1, 3\1 and none of my fancies are 3\1 I will take 11\4 or 5\2 and so on). The selection will always be below the odds required. (I have no control of prices)
Each selection will also be done singly.
What are my expectations : for the trebles,in about 12 months I hope to be somewhere about 45.5% ROI and the singles about 5% . As we are chasing trebles we will have "Long Losing Runs"
All single bets will be 1 Pt
Trebles 1 Pt with any winnings going on the other legs, except if I cash out. All bets are with Bet365.
Stake will increase as/if the bank increases by how much will be decided as we go.
Think thats it
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Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup
NR & 1st @ 9\4
True Hero 20.15 Newcastle 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog)
Had a good spell of late, easily landing a second Southwell win of the year 10 days ago. 5 penalty may not stop him if showing up in similar form.
Betrayed 20.00 Dundalk 1 Pt WIn @ 2\1 (bog)
Built on good reappearance second when winning 7-runner C&D handicap 35 days ago. Much respected up 5 lb.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Hotspur88 in Naps - Friday 26th March
14.15 Lingfield - Regent - 1 Pt WIn @ 11\10 WHill
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Xtc12 reacted to harry_rag in Draw Betting Strategy
No thanks. You should post the selections on here (like the rest of us do) or it just looks like you’re using the site for spamming purposes rather than having a desire to contribute,
Out of interest, what would the profit have been to level stakes, i.e. if you divided the total amount you staked equally across all the selections. I’m suspicious of the staking approach and interested to know if it added any value.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Short Priced Favs
Pulled Up - towards rear, headway and left in third when hampered 12th, ridden before 2 out, pulled up after 2 out
*** Well finished the year just as we started picking losers. Still finished in profit having had the worst start that I ever had, taking 81 bets before making a profit. I had 59 winners in total the joint third worse,equaling 18\19. The profit of 11.30 was the 9th lowest in 12 years. The Strike Rate of 60.20% was the tenth year we broke the 60% strike rate. We equaled the unwanted record of most consecutive losers of 5 while the most consecutive winners was 6.
2020/2021
Overall
May come back to continue next year as I am still in profit overall.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup
5th today
Ballyellis 13.10 Fakenham 1 Pt WIn @ 2\1 (bog)
Thrived in plating hurdling company in autumn 2019, racking up 4 wins. Big player if hitting the ground running after 13 months away.
Estepona Sun 17.30 Dundalk 1 Pt Win @ 4\1 (bog)
Fairly useful gelding. Course winner. 25/1, first run since leaving Noel C. Kelly when fourth of 16 in juvenile hurdle at Gowran 17 days ago. Tongue strap back on and interesting back in this sphere.
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Xtc12 reacted to ipswich45 in CHELTENHAM placepot pics in detail
myself and @trainmad091managed to get todays placepot up at Cheltenham just annoying sodding favourites came in every race still £5.80 better than a kick up the rear from 1 ticket
Selections were:
Appreciate It
Shiskin
Aye Right
Epatante
Concertista
Houx Gris
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Xtc12 reacted to MCLARKE in Conflict Cup
Good long term return for the GB selections.
Confirms my view that the over-round in Ireland is higher than GB.
Keep up the good work, it's added to my profit in March.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Well one year ago I started this thread hoping that I would show a profit today. As you can see I was a bit optimistic when it came to the trebles but I did have a "Longest Losing Run" of 42 bets. Finished the year today with a small treble which paid £5.40 for a profit of £4.40
Trebles
For a Strike Rate of 6.45% we ended up with a ROI of 9.27%
On the other hand the Singles performed excellently with a SR of 35.07% for a ROI of 10.63%, over 5% higher than what was expected.
While looking at the results I checked to see what the result would have been if I had done doubles. It would of had a ROI of 28.50% for a profit of just under £60 for £1 bets. Because of this I will also do doubles this year and see how it goes.
Expectations for Year 2 : Singles 5% profit, Doubles 14% and the Trebles 9%
Lady Breffni 14.15 Limerick @ 2\1 (bog)
Fairly useful hurdler. Good fourth of 20 in handicap hurdle (7/1) at Leopardstown (18f, soft) 35 days ago, running on. Back up in trip. Yard in good form. Sure to go well.
Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn