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Xtc12 got a reaction from Wildgarden in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Backing the trebles and singles since Day 1, will start the Doubles in May !
Had to do the singles so that I would not lose any winners. When I tested the doubles I was surprised and it has continued up to the end of April so why not jump on the bandwagon while the going is good.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Wildgarden in Three Day Treble (Horses)
1st @ 6\4 today ...... Another Double Up pays 9.38
Lochanthem 19.20 Windsor @ 5\6 (bog)
Visored first time, career best when easily winning 9-runner classified event at Yarmouth (10f, good to firm, 5/4) 6 days ago. Can defy penalty if in similar form.
Treble - 3rd Leg - 9.38 Pts WIn
Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Backing the trebles and singles since Day 1, will start the Doubles in May !
Had to do the singles so that I would not lose any winners. When I tested the doubles I was surprised and it has continued up to the end of April so why not jump on the bandwagon while the going is good.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
1st @ 11\4 yesterday
Noon Star 14.10 Wetherby @ 6\4 (bog)
Galileo filly out of the mighty Midday from superb Juddmonte family. Improved from debut when running out a ready winner of 9-runner maiden at Nottingham (8.3f, soft) 6 months ago. More to come.
Treble - 2nd Leg - 3.75 Pts WIn
Double - 2nd Leg - 3.75 Pts Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Wildgarden in Three Day Treble (Horses)
8th today
Street Poet 17.10 Wolverhampton @ 11\4 (bog)
Three-time C&D winner. Improved on recent efforts to win 12-runner handicap (6/1) at this course (8.6f) 4 days ago, kept up to work. Big chance of following up under a penalty.
Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn
Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Wildgarden in Three Day Treble (Horses)
1st @ 6\5 today ..... Treble Up returns 18.22
Inn the Bull 18.35 Chepstow @ 9\4 (bog)
Took advantage of his reduced mark over hurdles at Huntingdon (2m) 11 days ago. Had a bit in hand and a 7 lb penalty is unlikely to prevent him going close at the least.
Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn
Double - 2nd Leg - 2.2 Pts Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup
Double Up 1st @ 11\8 & 6\4
Artistic Rifles 17.00 Ripon 1 Pt WIn @ 11\8
8/1, career best when winning 20-runner handicap at Doncaster (8f, good) 28 days ago, despite facing a headwind throughout. Has a good attitude and there's probably more to come.
New York Angel 13.45 Limerick 1 Pt WIn @ 11\10 (bog)
10/1, shaped well on her debut when second of 19 in maiden at Naas (8f, heavy) 27 days ago. Sure to progress, and looks the one to beat.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Update after Double and Treble
Singles :
**For anyone interested Year 2 ROI is 10.80%
Doubles :
Trebles :
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
1st @ 6\5 today ..... Treble Up returns 18.22
Inn the Bull 18.35 Chepstow @ 9\4 (bog)
Took advantage of his reduced mark over hurdles at Huntingdon (2m) 11 days ago. Had a bit in hand and a 7 lb penalty is unlikely to prevent him going close at the least.
Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn
Double - 2nd Leg - 2.2 Pts Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
1st @ 15\8 ....... Double Up
Not Available 15.20 Kilbeggan @ 4\5 (bog)
Promising type. Second of 12 in novice hurdle at Tramore (16f, heavy, 4/9) 111 days ago. Up in trip. Tongue strap on 1st time. Open to improvement.
Treble - 3rd Leg - 8.28 Pts WIn
Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
6th - rared in stalls as gates opened
Stars In the Night 19.00 Southwell @ 15\8 (bog)
C&D winner. Career best when winning 10-runner handicap (9/4) at Newcastle (5f) 7 days ago, readily. Carries penalty. Should take all the beating in hat-trick bid.
Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn
Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Loser it was Fameaftertheglory 19.30 Ballinrobe ..... will be putting it into the results. Thanks for the permit
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Xtc12 reacted to MCLARKE in BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - APRIL 2021
I've put a check in the system that should ensure that doesn't happen again.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from gbettle in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Excellent return yesterday 1st @ 4\1
Update :
SIngles Overall :
Year 2 :
Trebles :
Bolshoi Ballet 15.45 Leopardstown @ 11\8 (bog)
Promising type. Course winner. One win from 2 runs last year. 2 lengths fifth of 7 to Gear Up in Criterium de Saint-Cloud (49/10) at Saint-Cloud (9.9f, heavy). Off 169 days. Standard bearer.
Treble - 2nd Leg - 5 Pts WIn
Double - 2nd Leg - 5 Pts Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from gbettle in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Well now that Cheltenham is over we are back to normal life, if this coronavirus would go away.
How many times would you pick three winners in a day and actually have them done in a treble ? How many times would you have a treble up ?. Would you get BOG on the treble ?
I am going to do a treble over three days, one a day which will guarantee better odds.
I will " Cash Out ", very rarely if the odds drift and the first two horses pay 20\1.
A non - runner will act just like if it was a treble done on the same day.
The selections will be picked from my fancied horses every day - Day 1 will be odds of 3/1 or near, day 2 - 2\1 and Day 3 - Evens which will give me a treble of 23\1.
If I cannot get the price required I will pick the fancy just below the odds (so if my selection is day 1, 3\1 and none of my fancies are 3\1 I will take 11\4 or 5\2 and so on). The selection will always be below the odds required. (I have no control of prices)
Each selection will also be done singly.
What are my expectations : for the trebles,in about 12 months I hope to be somewhere about 45.5% ROI and the singles about 5% . As we are chasing trebles we will have "Long Losing Runs"
All single bets will be 1 Pt
Trebles 1 Pt with any winnings going on the other legs, except if I cash out. All bets are with Bet365.
Stake will increase as/if the bank increases by how much will be decided as we go.
Think thats it
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Xtc12 reacted to alancraik in Backing Placed Horses
Xtc12
I had a look at this yesterday before you mentioned this in your post, I had got my calcs wrong. I need average odds of a minimum of 1.4 to break even. There is a rachet method in the steady drip spreadsheet, once you reach a target the stakes increase. Another thing is that when the stakes get higher it is unlikely they would be matched on betfair. I am not one to give up yet so starting afresh today.
Todays selections,
only a bet if I get at least odds 1.5
6.20 Wolverhampton 1 Sir Rodneyredblood Ghiani, Marco Jenkins, J R -
Xtc12 got a reaction from Wildgarden in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Excellent return yesterday 1st @ 4\1
Update :
SIngles Overall :
Year 2 :
Trebles :
Bolshoi Ballet 15.45 Leopardstown @ 11\8 (bog)
Promising type. Course winner. One win from 2 runs last year. 2 lengths fifth of 7 to Gear Up in Criterium de Saint-Cloud (49/10) at Saint-Cloud (9.9f, heavy). Off 169 days. Standard bearer.
Treble - 2nd Leg - 5 Pts WIn
Double - 2nd Leg - 5 Pts Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from Wildgarden in Three Day Treble (Horses)
1st @ 2\1 today ........ 15\1 Double Up
Stylish Dancer 16.00 Huntingdon @ 10\11 (bog)
Bounced back to form when readily winning 9-runner handicap hurdle at Hereford and followed up off the same mark with bags to spare on chase bow at Warwick. 11 lb higher now but remains of interest.
Treble - 3rd Leg - 15 Pts WIn
Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
1st @ 2\1 today ........ 15\1 Double Up
Stylish Dancer 16.00 Huntingdon @ 10\11 (bog)
Bounced back to form when readily winning 9-runner handicap hurdle at Hereford and followed up off the same mark with bags to spare on chase bow at Warwick. 11 lb higher now but remains of interest.
Treble - 3rd Leg - 15 Pts WIn
Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 reacted to harry_rag in Player Assist Minutes - Sell Experiment
3 winners from 5 bets yesterday for a loss of 92 points. Not bad given that Fernandes made up at 62 and Payet made up at 124.
Overall that makes it 294 winners from 364 bets (80.77%) for a return of +1618 points. ROI = 28.69% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 5640.)
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Xtc12 reacted to alancraik in Backing Placed Horses
I use a database to follow certain trainers and horses, after a bit of research (more seemed to place than win) decided to back them using an old staking plan called the steady drip. All bets place only on Betfair and will use the highest available place for that race ( 2 - 7). Starting off with £2 per bet.
Todays selections
7.40 Kempton 1 My Frankel Kingscote, Richard Stoute, Sir Michael
2.10 Leicester 2 Ensyaaby (IRE) ONeill, Dane Tregoning, M P
6.55 Wexford 7 Getaday (IRE) Mullins, D E Jr, T J Nagle
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Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup
1st @ 13\8 & 7th yesterday
Update:
Overall :
Year 4 :
Early days Year 4, don't think I can have as good a year as GB did last year. Hopefully IRE can make a profit this year.
Just a few things on the system.
GB : Average Win Odds 2.66, Most consecutive winners 6, Most consecutive losers 12
IRE : Average Win Odds 2.96, Most Consecutive winners 5, Most consecutive losers 11
Well Educated 17.11 Kelso 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 (bog)
Getaway gelding who was strong in the betting and showed plenty to work on when fourth at Warwick on debut in November. Similar form when runner-up at Newcastle a month later. Sets the standard.
Bolshoi Ballet 15.45 Leopardstown 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
Promising type. Course winner. One win from 2 runs last year. 2 lengths fifth of 7 to Gear Up in Criterium de Saint-Cloud (49/10) at Saint-Cloud (9.9f, heavy). Off 169 days. Standard bearer.
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Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Three Day Treble (Horses)
Excellent return yesterday 1st @ 4\1
Update :
SIngles Overall :
Year 2 :
Trebles :
Bolshoi Ballet 15.45 Leopardstown @ 11\8 (bog)
Promising type. Course winner. One win from 2 runs last year. 2 lengths fifth of 7 to Gear Up in Criterium de Saint-Cloud (49/10) at Saint-Cloud (9.9f, heavy). Off 169 days. Standard bearer.
Treble - 2nd Leg - 5 Pts WIn
Double - 2nd Leg - 5 Pts Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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Xtc12 reacted to MCLARKE in Staking Plan Discussions (singles v doubles or trebles etc.)
I think the problem with betting in trebles is the long losing runs and the potential for a significant drawdown on the bank balance. I suppose it depends whether you like the thrill of the occasional big win or the satisfaction of consistent smaller profits. I prefer the latter but we are all different I suppose.