Mindfulness

Good work mate, didn't get on it myself as I'm wary of Stoke's beach dwelling abilities
Real good performance from them tonight, very organised and assured, credit to Mark Hughes. Even Berahino looks to have cleaned up his act!

West Bromwich Albion V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.50 @ 1.769 (Matchbook)
Going to put my money where my mouth is as I believe my analysis of Palace is correct and we have turned a corner. Team news looks fine, competition for places is strong, morale is high. New personnel and change of module has bough about a seed change in Palace's play, we should not fear West Brom here.
As I've said before West Brom performances will not drop and they will still be on a mission. People will point to the fact that they have won 4 home games in a row but I do not like to support long winning sequences from teams outside the big 6 in EPL. All those home wins came against donk teams and although many on here still believe Palace are a donk team I no longer share that view due to recent events. Note how skybet have a West Brom win in their enhanced odds acca this weekend; they believe the selection is a potential banana skin.
Don't get me wrong, I think West Brom are a very solid outfit at this level, but I find it hard to envisage them outscoring Palace tommorow. Statistics and even recent history can't always give you a complete picture when it comes to making the right decision in betting. Markets aren't stupid, to make money you sometimes have to step out and be first to call something. I will put my money and credibility at risk by saying Palace have the momentum here.

@vasilli07 Was spot on with his analysis of Palace in previous thread. An uninteruptted 2 week period of training has allowed Allardyce to develop the team and incorporate his new signings to good affect.
Things of note from Middlesbrough game:
Palace reverted to a flat back 4 in what was essentially a 4-1-4-1 module with Sakho starting alongside Tomkins in heart of defence while Milivojevic was deployed as the midfield pivot. One of my main gripes with Palace over the last year or so is a lack of assuredness and leadership through the spine of the team. Both Sakho and Milivojevic performed well on Saturday and it finally looks like we are starting to develop some backbone.
We almost had a fully fit squad for Middlesbrough game and competition for places is strong; Dann, McArthur and Schlupp all started from the bench and the added competition for places is boosting the performance levels of the players that do start such as Townsend, Puncheon and Cabaye.
The 4-1-4-1 module has improved our attacking play as we now push forward in greater numbers and provide better support for Benteke. Having players like Van Aanholt and Schlupp is great because they both have good engines and get up and down the flanks well to provide overlaps for Townsend and Zaha.
I do feel we were handed a circumstantial advantage against Middlesbrough as they had a personnel crisis in the full-back positions. Karanka had to revert to a 3 man defense due to missing players and this really played into our hands with Zaha and Townsend giving makeshift wing-back Downing a torrid time.
I feel it was a deserved win for Palace as we played with confidence and performed well throughout the game. Credit to the fans who got behind the team, important if we are to win our home games.
Heading into the West Brom game:
Be interesting to see the Palace team news nearer the time as I believe both Cabaye and Zaha took knocks in the Middlesbrough game
You can be sure that West Brom are one of the EPL teams that do not hit the beach early. You play for your place under Pulis, often he will start someone with overall less quality as a fooballer simply because they work harder and follow his instructions to the letter. They may have reached the magical 40pt mark but I do not expect them to drop off from here. I remember when Pulis managed Palace, we performed really well right to the end of the campaign and ended up finishing 11th which was extremely impressive given the state of our team when he joined. Now compare them to Stoke Those glamour boys are hitting the great barrier reef as we speak, right on schedule.
I feel Palace can pickup a positive result on Saturday but it will be tough. West Brom are so good with their attacking set-pieces and will look to exploit any weakness from Hennessey as they did with Boruc at the weekend.
Will try and post something regarding the other matches later in the week.

Not doubting your credentials. I've been on and off here for tips for 10 years so know the respectable avatars
Im not on this one so I hope you get your bet in. I've been secretly hoping for WBA to crash and burn for weeks so maybe Palace will give me some satisfaction 

Haha it's true! I really don't want to get relegated mate. I have been posting on here for a few years though and would hope that the old guard back me up when I say my view on Palace is unbiased. I make bets with the sole intention of generating profit, I tend to bet a lot on Palace games because they're the team I have the most complete picture of. Business is business. 
I feel I've written enough on this thread to justify my selection. As always; people must not follow if they think I'm wrong. I'm not here to convince anybody of anything, just explaining what I'll be doing and why I think it's the right move.

West Bromwich Albion V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.50 @ 1.769 (Matchbook)
Going to put my money where my mouth is as I believe my analysis of Palace is correct and we have turned a corner. Team news looks fine, competition for places is strong, morale is high. New personnel and change of module has bough about a seed change in Palace's play, we should not fear West Brom here.
As I've said before West Brom performances will not drop and they will still be on a mission. People will point to the fact that they have won 4 home games in a row but I do not like to support long winning sequences from teams outside the big 6 in EPL. All those home wins came against donk teams and although many on here still believe Palace are a donk team I no longer share that view due to recent events. Note how skybet have a West Brom win in their enhanced odds acca this weekend; they believe the selection is a potential banana skin.
Don't get me wrong, I think West Brom are a very solid outfit at this level, but I find it hard to envisage them outscoring Palace tommorow. Statistics and even recent history can't always give you a complete picture when it comes to making the right decision in betting. Markets aren't stupid, to make money you sometimes have to step out and be first to call something. I will put my money and credibility at risk by saying Palace have the momentum here.

A lot of talk about this key Watford versus Southampton game. It's a minefield for me so I'm going to steer well clear. Both sides as inconsistent as the other. The key player for me is Gabbiadini. He's started off like a rocket for the Saints. If he can continue that form then it's a Southampton win. The potential catch is the EFL Cup Final hangover. My gut reaction is to back a draw but I'm likely to leave this one well alone.

The Watford V Southampton fixture is probably the most interesting game from a betting perspective. On the surface it looks like markets have lost their minds with big + for home team but unfortunately it's more complicated than that.
I was very critical of Southampton a couple of weeks back, they immediately went to Sunderland and crushed them 0-4. Fairly meaningless in isolation but it was followed up with a strong performance in the league cup final. Clearly Southampton's defense is vulnerable atm but they are quick and direct in the construction phase of the game and Gabbiadini is bang in form as their spearhead.
Mazzarri has done well at Watford imo but they struggle to find consistency due to many injury problems this campaign. Their physical, high octane style takes its toll and you never really know which Watford is going to show up in games. Their backline is poor imo and they struggle to defend flank attacks (an area which Southampton excel in). Amrabat and Janmaat are injury doubts this weekend so Watford could line up: Cathcart - Kaboul - Prodl - Holebas. Southampton could really cause that setup problems with Cedric and Bertrand down the flanks.
We should also look at ELO here which gives nearly a full goal advantage to Southampton. I agree with @Icongene about questioning Southampton after playing in a cup final but it's very hard to gauge something like that.
Put it this way, I would never take Southampton here, even on the -0.25 line, but Watford +0.50 is potential public bet death trap. The mind boggles with this game it really does, smelling salts on standby.

Seriously I don't know where these crazy stats are being conjured up from.
I shouldn't even be on the list atm as I've posted 1 selection since this thread started on January 17th:
Where are all the other bets I've posted on here??? Saying I have a gut feeling that Palace will beat Middlesbrough does not count. If I post a bet on here (one that I believe others might want to follow) I post the selection with odds and book + reasoning of somekind as seen in example above.
Soon Trump will be changing my posts on here from 'fake news' to 'very fake news'.

Seriously I don't know where these crazy stats are being conjured up from.
I shouldn't even be on the list atm as I've posted 1 selection since this thread started on January 17th:
Where are all the other bets I've posted on here??? Saying I have a gut feeling that Palace will beat Middlesbrough does not count. If I post a bet on here (one that I believe others might want to follow) I post the selection with odds and book + reasoning of somekind as seen in example above.
Soon Trump will be changing my posts on here from 'fake news' to 'very fake news'.

Seriously I don't know where these crazy stats are being conjured up from.
I shouldn't even be on the list atm as I've posted 1 selection since this thread started on January 17th:
Where are all the other bets I've posted on here??? Saying I have a gut feeling that Palace will beat Middlesbrough does not count. If I post a bet on here (one that I believe others might want to follow) I post the selection with odds and book + reasoning of somekind as seen in example above.
Soon Trump will be changing my posts on here from 'fake news' to 'very fake news'.

@vasilli07 Was spot on with his analysis of Palace in previous thread. An uninteruptted 2 week period of training has allowed Allardyce to develop the team and incorporate his new signings to good affect.
Things of note from Middlesbrough game:
Palace reverted to a flat back 4 in what was essentially a 4-1-4-1 module with Sakho starting alongside Tomkins in heart of defence while Milivojevic was deployed as the midfield pivot. One of my main gripes with Palace over the last year or so is a lack of assuredness and leadership through the spine of the team. Both Sakho and Milivojevic performed well on Saturday and it finally looks like we are starting to develop some backbone.
We almost had a fully fit squad for Middlesbrough game and competition for places is strong; Dann, McArthur and Schlupp all started from the bench and the added competition for places is boosting the performance levels of the players that do start such as Townsend, Puncheon and Cabaye.
The 4-1-4-1 module has improved our attacking play as we now push forward in greater numbers and provide better support for Benteke. Having players like Van Aanholt and Schlupp is great because they both have good engines and get up and down the flanks well to provide overlaps for Townsend and Zaha.
I do feel we were handed a circumstantial advantage against Middlesbrough as they had a personnel crisis in the full-back positions. Karanka had to revert to a 3 man defense due to missing players and this really played into our hands with Zaha and Townsend giving makeshift wing-back Downing a torrid time.
I feel it was a deserved win for Palace as we played with confidence and performed well throughout the game. Credit to the fans who got behind the team, important if we are to win our home games.
Heading into the West Brom game:
Be interesting to see the Palace team news nearer the time as I believe both Cabaye and Zaha took knocks in the Middlesbrough game
You can be sure that West Brom are one of the EPL teams that do not hit the beach early. You play for your place under Pulis, often he will start someone with overall less quality as a fooballer simply because they work harder and follow his instructions to the letter. They may have reached the magical 40pt mark but I do not expect them to drop off from here. I remember when Pulis managed Palace, we performed really well right to the end of the campaign and ended up finishing 11th which was extremely impressive given the state of our team when he joined. Now compare them to Stoke Those glamour boys are hitting the great barrier reef as we speak, right on schedule.
I feel Palace can pickup a positive result on Saturday but it will be tough. West Brom are so good with their attacking set-pieces and will look to exploit any weakness from Hennessey as they did with Boruc at the weekend.
Will try and post something regarding the other matches later in the week.

Haha, 5-4 win for Palace then! Come on, @Mindfulness, you can do iiit!

FFS! Just wrote a long post on this and my internet broke.
Basically it was this crazy theory about how teams with similar characteristics repel each other. For example; two very underish teams play each other then it's bound to be overs. Personally I can't take the theory seriously as I doubt there are any metrics for it. Just sticks in my mind for some reason.

FFS! Just wrote a long post on this and my internet broke.
Basically it was this crazy theory about how teams with similar characteristics repel each other. For example; two very underish teams play each other then it's bound to be overs. Personally I can't take the theory seriously as I doubt there are any metrics for it. Just sticks in my mind for some reason.

I don't think I'm going to be able to shed much light on Palace V Middlesbrough game tbh mate. Both teams have been pathetic for a while now although I must be fair and say Palace have been one of the most consistently pathetic teams in English league football for over a year.
I guess everyone is saying this one will be a draw as it's almost impossible to visualise either team winning a game of football. I will cite the infamous 'two team repel theory' which was mentioned in passing on this forum many moons ago, can't remember who it was but always makes me laugh for some reason.
My gut feelings tell me Palace will win tommorow:
Which leads me to the next statement: DO NOT BET ON PALACE HERE!!! The price does not support such a ridiculous move. To back Palace in this situation you would need full draw cover approaching EVS imo.
It's a no bet for me with the prices as they are but as Robbie Savage would say: 'It's just my opinion, just my opinion'.

Much tougher EPL card this week with hardly any value to speak of imo. Maybe Sunderland on a + since I don't like Southampton without Van Dijk and Fonte. They just look like one of those marooned in midtable, here have 3pts off us teams. Imagine what they'll be like after the league cup final, probably wont win another game for the rest of the season and stay up with 29 points due to Palace and Middlesbrough being total shite.
Anyway no bets for me as yet, Sunderland price seems to reflect ELO ratings so hardly value bet of the century in any case. Your gut instincts have to take over more in this part of the season and I don't have strong feelings for any selections at present.
Can't complain though, markets have opened up in recent weeks with some nice valuation errors here and there, it's been good.

The price on Palace this weekend is so short it's laughable, 1.69 best price at the time of writing this - just ridiculous.
We have been struggling to win our home games for well over a year now, especially against 'lesser' opposition who come and shutup shop. Yes there is a quality gap between the two teams but Palace have simply not been creating enough goal scoring chances under Allardyce to be confident of beating a gritty David Moyes side.
You could argue Palace have some mommentum with win at Bournemouth and playing squad now looking the strongest it's ever been since we've been back in the EPL but the technicals don't lie.
ELO ratings show teams are almost identical in attacking play (slight advantage to Sunderland infact). So what are the markets basing the price on? Palace's vastly superior defence? Incredible home form? Obviously not in either case.
Palace will have received a psychological boost from midweek victory but Sunderland fixture really is a pressure game. Technicals aside, I believe Palace should be priced as favourites here but more like 2.00 - 2.10 not 1.69

Please find the ratings for this weekend's games attached. Does this offer you a better insight into what bets you will be choosing this weekend?

AFC Bournemouth V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.50 @ 1.806 (Matchbook)
Dann, McArthur & Zaha all make the starting lineup, bench looks good.
Not much to add other than this one is dicey, sometimes you have to mix it up with these kinds of bets. Guessing when a team's form will change is always difficult, tonight is an opportunity for Palace, let's see if they can pickup somekind of positive result here.
 

Yes, he wants the whole team to defend collectively. This is why he bought Gabriel Jesus who I believe will go on to replace Aguero. Obviously this wont happen straight away as GJ is only 19 and South American players take longer to the settle in EPL, especially when they've come straight from South America. Gabriel Jesus will help City defend from the front and is definately the kind of centre forward that Pep has been craving. Aguero's days at City are numbered.
If Pep and Mourinho don't get petulant and quit / get sacked then the Manchester clubs will become the dominant forces in EPL for the foreseeable future.

@StevieDay1983 , Haha not really as I believe we have only lost once to Everton since being back in the EPL - our matches normally end in low scoring draws and I expect something similar on Saturday. If anything Everton's result against City will benefit us as Palace away will probably be a dank and drizzly comedown for the Everton wonder kids compared to the glamour of thrashing City - a distorted result I might add.
I like Everton very much this year, strong manager in Koeman and some of the most exciting young players in EPL right now. Problem is you should never expect consistency from young players, seen it time and time again over the seasons.
As for Palace, it wont be news to anyone that we are completely terrible at the momment although 3-0 flattered West Ham at the weekend, first goal was always crucial there. We do indeed miss Zaha, a very important player and top performer this year but our problems run a lot deeper than missing one player. Confidence is just so low right now, players have completely lost winning mentality and no signs of that recovering under Allardyce thus far.
Despite this I do not really fear Everton, infact I would prefer them to a fellow relegation battler or top 4 contender, they are in the goldilocks zone of teams to face right now imo.
I was hoping the two teams respective results would completely distort the market in Everton's favour for Saturday. So far this hasn't happened with markets pricing game accurately imo, Palace would need to be +0.50 approaching EVS for value play here. First things first mind, midweek FA Cup replay at home to Bolton, I don't expect us to field full strength team but should have some first teamers involved to buildup match fitness and confidence. Will wait to see how that pans out before returning to Palace V Everton, I suspect it will be a no bet situation given how accurate the prices have been in EPL this year.