beaker1
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3.30 Cheltenham – Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
Running well at the previous Cheltenham Festival seems to be the strongest trend for a modern Champion Hurdle with 15 of the last 17 winners registering a placed finish – eight of those had actually won too. Nichols Canyon and the three Triumph Hurdle graduates, Peace And Co, Top Notch and Hargam are the only four to fit this trend, but clearly Annie Power would have also been on the list if she hadn’t dramatically come down at the last in the 2015 Mares’ Hurdle.Eleven of the last 17 winners were trained in Ireland and, as you might expect, the entry from across the sea is strong again this year despite the absence of last year’s Irish 1-2 in Faugheen and Arctic Fire. The Willie Mullins-trained trio of Nichols Canyon, Annie Power and Sempre Medici join Henry De Bromhead’s Identity Thief in the raiding party and between them; it looks as if they could have the market, and most likely the race itself, cornered.
But as one of the most open-looking Champion Hurdles in recent times, it could well be another good chance for the average SP of the winner (currently 10/1) to rise. There have been three winners at 16/1 or bigger in the last 12 years, and that’s a significant percentage in a Championship race. Many of this year’s ‘outsiders’ are younger, improving horses, so it would be foolish to rule out anything simply based on their position in the market, especially something like Camping Ground who, despite his price of 20/1, is the official top-rated horse in this year’s race and could still be unexposed in this sphere after just seven runs over hurdles.
With only one of the last nine winners having run more than 12 times over timber, it seems that experience is by no means any guarantee of success, so black marks go up against The New One, who may well have missed his chance to win the big one when he was at the top of his game a couple of years ago and Lil Rockerfeller, this season’s revelation in handicaps, while ante-post favourite and supplementary entry Annie Power only just squeezes onto the right side of the fence.
Having said that, five-year-olds haven’t reached the top of the tree since Katchit’s win in 2008 (1 win from 94 runners since 1985) and it’s been six or seven-year-olds that have dominated the race in the last ten years with seven wins between them. Even though this race does look hugely open, last year’s aforementioned Triumph Hurdle trifecta could well find this a step too far so early in their careers along with the admirable Lil Rockerfeller.
This is a very difficult race to make head or tail of – Nichols Canyon comes out narrowly on top in terms of boxes ticked, with stablemate Sempre Medici, a current 25/1 shot, lurking one behind. It’s fascinating that Mullins’ supposed 3rd string, ridden by David Mullins, comes out so close to Nichols Canyon and if he had finished a little closer to Wicklow Brave in the County Hurdle last year after encountering trouble at the last, he could well have joined him at the top of the ‘trends table’. There has been some support at big prices for the horse and if the ground continues to dry out, he could be in with a chance, even though neither Ruby Walsh nor Paul Townend will be aboard.
The joker in the pack here is My Tent Or Yours, who after being off for two years, was always unlikely to fair brilliantly when looking at the trends. Even so, he is still a Grade 1 winner, has placed in a Champion Hurdle and on his best form, would take a lot of beating here. If Nicky Henderson has the horse at his best after the long break – something he’s done many times before – he could have a great chance, but that’s a gargantuan ‘if’.
Oddly, the top rated horse in the race, Camping Ground, has never even competed in a Grade 1 race, let alone won one, and over a trip short of his best he’ll surely struggle to keep pace with the proven top performers here, a comment that could also apply to Lil Rockerfeller.
As for the Triumph Hurdle top three from last year, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Hargam improving past the battler Top Notch and the out-of-sorts Peace And Co on the probable good to soft/good ground. Mark Walsh has been booked for the ride and if you look at the form of the Christmas Hurdle, run on sticky ground Hargam wouldn’t have enjoyed (looked deeper than the official ‘good to soft’ description), he was just under a length behind The New One, so there’s potential for more there at a decent price (25/1). As for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge, the trainer says he’s happier than he’s ever been with him coming into a Champion Hurdle and he can’t be ruled out if putting his best foot forward. However, he’s looked laboured recently and it’s almost as if there’s still something ailing him – he’s been outpaced in these good races before running on time after time and I just wonder whether his chance went in 2014.
Although Identity Thief is high on the list as an improving young horse who could well have the scope to make a splash at this level, especially on better ground than when he gave Nichols Canyon a fright at Leopardstown, in the end it’s certainly difficult to look too far beyond the Mullins entries once again, particularly considering connections shelled out £20,000 to make sure Annie Power got a run and Nichols Canyon is the only horse to have ever bested Faugheen.
Graham Wylie’s six-year-old looks an extremely solid proposition as a six-time Grade 1 winner and should benefit from a positive ride that will see him in his best light, while that could also benefit the mare, helping her to settle. The nagging doubt for me with Nichols Canyon is that, even more so on better ground, this trip may be too short for him and any injection of pace coming round the home turn from Annie Power could find him quickly off the bridle and chasing her vainly up the hill.
It’s been odd to see and hear the amount of negatives people have been coming up with when mentioning Annie Power – yes she’s probably way too short in the market, she does have a 0 from 2 record at Cheltenham (unlucky last year and outstayed over 3m in 2014) and no this wasn’t the plan from the start of the season, but she’s clearly still an extremely high-class mare, who has a lot of speed and staying power in a potent mix. The 7lb mares’ allowance is huge in this context and the fact that Ruby Walsh stays faithful to her tells you a lot given the proven quality of Nichols Canyon. She’s the most likely winner for me, even though she’s not a strong betting proposition, and it will be very interesting to see if the two stablemates dictate the pace from the front and whether that means they’ll take each other on too much. In the end, I can see both Nichols Canyon and Annie Power being right there over the last and that’s when the weight difference could tell.The Mullins yard have also dominated the 2m division for a couple of years now, and although it may require more to replicate the 1-2-3 the yard had 12 months ago without Faugheen, Arctic Fire and Hurricane Fly, Sempre Medici cannot be overlooked lightly and he looks a big each-way player at 25/1. He’s an improving horse and I can easily seem him being in the mix for the money.
Shortlist
Annie Power
Sempre Medici
Nichols Canyon
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2.50 Cheltenham – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
The fact that all 15 winners since the turn of the millennium registered their best RPR over at least 2m7 ½f shows that we need a horse that will stay the trip in what usually turns out to be a fast-paced affair for a 3m+ chase. Only five of this year’s line-up haven’t achieved their best RPR over this trip which is a bad omen for the likes of Shanahan’s Turn and Band Of Blood.The first place to look in most Graded races is for a last time out winner and, surprisingly, the same can be said about this race. 7 of the last 13 renewals have been won by a horse with a ‘1’ next to their name which bodes well for the five that applies to in the field here, Kruzhlinin, Out Sam, Theatre Guide, Carole’s Destrier and Beg To Differ.
This is one of the strongest races at The Festival for horses sporting headgear with each of last four winners wearing some kind of aid. It shouldn’t be seen as a negative that a horse doesn’t go to post with one accompaniment or another but just don’t be put off by a runner that usually sports some kind of headgear.
Jonjo O’Neill is one of the top trainers of staying handicap chasers and he is the man to follow in this race especially. He has trained 3 of the last 7 winners and is doubly represented this time round with Beg To Differ and the 2014 winner Holywell.In contrast, Paul Nicholls has an unenviable record of 0/18. He has had three third-places courtesy of Ad Hoc (twice) and Royal Auclair but that certainly puts a dent in the chances of Southfield Theatre.
Despite the rigours of this stern stamina test, novices and second season chasers have had a better record than expected. 12 of the last 15 winners fell into this bracket and 7 of the last 10 winners had less than 10 runs over fences. It seems that the more unexposed types sneak into this race while ahead of the assessor so it is best to concentrate on those with this kind of profile. Fancied runners, Holywell, Theatre Guide and Kruzhlinin fall foul of this trend.
Being one of the stronger races of the week for Festival form, a previous winner cannot be ignored. 2 of the last 7 winners had won at The Festival before and of this year’s field, only Holywell, who won this in 2014, and Spring Heeled, 2014 Kim Muir winner, have enjoyed Festival success previously which gives them a leg up on their rivals here.
There is a common misconception that handicaps are a lottery and are won by big prices. This is true in some cases but certainly not here with 11 of the last 15 winners being found in the top four in the betting. At the time of writing, Out Sam heads the market from Holywell and Kruzhlinin with Morning Assembly, Carole’s Destrier and The Young Master close in behind.
Tactics in handicaps differ from race to race but there is a strong trend here for those to have been held-up or raced in mid-field. As mentioned previously, they tend to set off at a fair lick for a 3m1f chase so that obviously lends itself to those who have conserved that extra bit of energy as they turn into the straight.
This is perennially one of the most exciting races of the season and this season’s renewal looks ultra-competitive so should be no different.
Beg To Differ comes out on top of the trends and will extend Jonjo O’Neill’s already stellar record to 4 wins in 8 years if he does prevail. He was steadily progressive over hurdles last campaign and has started to find his feet over fences, landing the odds at Sandown last month in fine style. However, his jumping did leave a bit to be desired that day and he will need to iron out those errors to play a leading role here. If he continues his upward curve, he will be entitled to figure but he does look the stable second string.
Jonjo’s apparent first string is Holywell who landed this back in 2014. When he readily accounted for Don Cossack in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase a month later, he looked to be one of the premier staying chasers but he never really kicked out on from that point although did run a couple of good races when in the frame in both the Gold Cup and Betfred Bowl. His recent form does look concerning but he always runs his best races in the spring and has been dropped a handy 6lb by the handicapper. The fact that he has won two races at The Festival before is a massive positive and if he is in anything like the form he has shown here previously, he could well be a class above the rest of the field.
Neil Mulholland is a trainer that has been making waves and his pair here must be respected on the back of his win with The Druids Nephew last year. Carole’s Destrier is the more interesting of the two and he rarely runs a bad race. Mulholland skipped The Festival with him last year in favour of a crack at Aintree, where he was sent off a well-backed 4/1 second favourite to Saphir Du Rheu in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase. He was well beaten, possibly feeling the effects of a long season but lost little caste in defeat. He had an ok pipe-opener in the Badger Ales Trophy where he finished fifth but was quietly impressive when winning the London National at Sandown. On that evidence, he looks to stay all day which will undoubtedly hold him in good stead here.
His stablemate, The Young Master, is probably the better renowned of the two having created quite an impression last season, landing the Silver Cup at Ascot in fine style. He was pitched in at the deep end at last year’s Festival in the RSA and has had some similarly tough assignments since. He was well fancied in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup only to unseat at the first and ran with credit when fourth behind the highly progressive Wakanda next time out. His latest spin over hurdles can be ignored and he could still be a young chaser ahead of his mark.
The real talking horse in the last few weeks has been Out Sam. The young chaser has improved markedly for the switch to fences and was though of highly enough to contest a Grade 2 on only his second chasing start. He is not only a strong trends pick, but he has very solid form in the book as well. He easily defeated Milansbar in a three-runner novice event at Newbury, who has since gone on to land a handicap in decent fashion and now holds a rating of 145. Factor in that Warren Greatrex’s charge was giving the runner-up 4lb, 139 now looks to be a very lenient mark.
Shortlist
Beg To Differ
Holywell
Carole’s Destrier
The Young Master
Out Sam
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1.30 Cheltenham – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Having landed the last three renewals with Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan, the triumvirate of Ruby Walsh, Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci clearly must be feared. To win a Festival race in three successive years with three different horses is an almost unheard of achievement and is a massive plus for their runner in this year’s contest, Min.With 17 of the last 19 Supremes going the way of a last time out winner, this is a strong trend and one not to be ignored. Although a lot of the horses running who had been beaten on their previous start were no-hopers, the likes of Cue Card, Cousin Vinny and Marcel were all sent off favourite and failed to overcome this distinct negative. Six of this year’s field failed to win on their latest start including Tombstone, Bellshill and Silver Concorde.
Irish-trained runners have a fantastic record in the Supreme having landed 10 of the last 15 renewals. Taking it a step further, the market has generally been a strong guide and half of those winners were also favourites. This is another tick in the box for Min while the fancied horses from Britain, Altior and Buveur D’Air, have something to prove.
Despite having a rough time of it for a good few years, French-breds have really started to come to the fore, taking 3 of the last 5 renewals. Only three of this year’s line-up hail from across the Channel which is a step in the right direction for Min, Buveur D’Air and Petit Mouchoir. Taking this a step further, each of the last two winners were second season novices having been beaten in France, a trait shared once again by Min.
Although seen as a stamina test at the trip, the Supreme has surprisingly leant itself to those ridden prominently. In recent years, Vautour and Champagne Fever made virtually all the running while Douvan and Cinders And Ashes were both in the front rank turning for home. We have become accustomed to Ruby Walsh going from the front in recent times and this should be no different with Min who has tended to race freely (sometimes overly so) in his last couple of starts.
In recent years, the fancied runners have prevailed but in 5 of the previous 6 years, the winner was sent off at double-figure odds. With the possible changing of the tide, this isn’t as bulletproof as it once was but if you fancy one at a bigger price, you certainly shouldn’t be put off.
With the Champion Bumper being one of the toughest tests of stamina in bumpers, it comes as little surprise that the previous season’s premier National Hunt flat race has a solid bearing on the Supreme. 4 of the last 13 winners had finished in the top 5 in the Champion Bumper and whilst it seems difficult to double-up (only Champagne Fever has managed it in the last 20 years), those that ran with credit seem to have a solid record. None of the top 5 last year take their place here but Supasundae wasn’t beaten far into sixth having been far too keen early on.
An over-riding factor that has become apparent in recent years is that you don’t want a horse that began their career on the flat. No winner since Ebaziyan in 2007 has started their careers on the level while only 1 out of 48 runners who have come from the flat have been placed. Only Penglai Pavilion of this year’s line-up started out on the flat which is a big black mark for him.
The lack of a recent run is a concern when it comes to the Supreme and only one winner since 1993 had obliged having not run in the calendar year. This is a particular concern for Altior as he has proven to be very keen in his races and hasn’t been since running at Kempton on Boxing Day. Although Min has been seen this year, he has still been off the track since early January which would rate as a negative given how freely he has been in his races to date.
With the Supreme regarded as a stern test of stamina, it is somewhat of a surprise that those to have raced over further than 2m2f have a relatively poor record here. Only Champagne Fever and Al Ferof had run beyond 2m2f under Rules from the last 11 winners. Five of this year’s field fall down at this hurdle including Bellshill and Tombstone.
Unsurprisingly, Min has proven to be a very strong pick on the trends and comes out well clear of the rest of the pack. He only falls down on a couple of things, one being the potentially ailing trend of being in double-figures and the fact he has been off the track for a while. The fact that his profile matches so closely to each of the last two winners can’t fail to impress and while question marks can be raised about what he has achieved this season, the end result cannot be faulted. He could do with settling better in what will undoubtedly be his toughest test to date but Willie Mullins singled him out as his one for the Supreme back in October, lofty expectations given the embarrassment of riches Closutton has at their disposal.
Altior isn’t the strongest trends horse by some way but as the highest-rated horse in the field, he warrants a great deal of respect. His demolition of Open Eagle was mightily impressive at Kempton and, unlike the market leader, he has shown he has the minerals to tough it out in a ding-dong battle when staying on well over course and distance at the Open Meeting in November. It is a concern that he has been off the track for so long but he is far from inexperienced having had four runs in the space of just over two months early in the campaign and should arrive here as a fresh horse.
One that outperforms his odds when it comes to the stats is Charbel from the Kim Bailey yard. The five-year-old was a hefty purchase on the back of his fourth-place finish in the Punchestown Champion Bumper last year. He looked a decent prospect over hurdles and ran within 3 lengths of Neptune favourite Yanworth in a Grade 2 at Ascot (albeit as the winner was eased down). Arguably, his best performance came last time out in the Scottish Supreme Trial where he made every yard and finished well clear of the rest of the field. His front-running tendencies will likely help him out here.
Another of the Brits attempting to halt the charge of the Irish is Buveur D’air who comes here officially 1lb better than Min. He also finished 2 ½ lengths ahead of Altior in a Listed bumper last year, although he was in receipt of 10lb, so although he may not have had the most glamorous of build-ups to The Festival, he is definitely here on merit. He destroyed the potentially smart Wait For Me on his hurdles debut at Newbury back in November and followed up with another facile victory at Huntingdon in January to finish off his preparation for this. His running style however does mean that he will likely be waited with which hasn’t been the greatest of plans over the years.
With the Irish so dominant in recent times, it is a bit of a surprise that Min aside, on paper, their challenge doesn’t look to be as strong as it could be. Bellshill has been rerouted here instead of the Neptune, a somewhat puzzling decision given a drop in trip didn’t seem the obvious move. He was a convincing winner of a Grade 1 at Navan in January but was beaten out of sight in the Deloitte a month later. His stable did send out a 1-2 last year with Shaneshill, holding a similar profile, finishing runner-up to Douvan so it may be the case that he is in here for place money only.
Supasundae looks the most interesting of the Irish contingent outside of the favourite and he does perform pretty well on the trends. He would have performed even better had he finished a place closer in last year’s Champion Bumper, but he was made to pay for being too keen early on when finishing sixth. Upon winning at Leopardstown at Christmas, the Supreme was mooted as his seasonal target and not many could disagree on the back of his blistering performance. He could well outrun his odds here and we shouldn’t forget that he comfortably accounted for Yanworth in an Ascot bumper last season.
Shortlist
Min
Altior
Charbel
Supasundae
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2.00 Sandown Park – The 30th European Breeders’ Fund ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Race Final (Grade 3)
Always a highly competitive race, the ‘EBF Final’ is again packed with some Novices with plenty of potential, including Lucy Wadham’s Potters Legend, who has won twice and come second three times in his five runs. The form of his second places behind some decent horses like Allysson Monterg, Wait For Me and Ballyandy looks relatively good, but he does have to carry top weight here for those efforts. Although it is usually the classier types that win this race, the welter burden could just be too much to bear.
Wade Harper is another who has done pretty much everything asked of him in an honest, tough fashion on most ground and is a solid type of Novice hurdler for David Dennis. Even though he’s on a roll after winning his last two races and will be fine over this trip, his defeats to Simon Squirrel and Marracudja have shown that maybe he just comes up a little short at the better levels, so he could be one to pass over off a big weight.
Unbeaten over hurdles for Brian Ellison, Point The Way fits a similar bill of being tough and game – you can’t help but be impressed with the way he goes from the front, fighting off all comers. However, the way the race is shaping, up, there could be an almighty battle for the lead and when the five-year-old hasn’t made all (three times in bumpers), he’s never won, so that could be important. He’s also another horse towards the top of the weights and there could be some much better handicapped.
Speaking of which, the market has clearly found Two Taffs and he is a clear favourite, as short as 4/1 in a very competitive handicap, but you can certainly see why. The bumper winner has run well without winning in two decent novice hurdles, going down by a head to Lady Yeats on his hurdles debut and then by a length to Nicky Henderson’s promising Brain Power at Kempton. His third place finish in a decent Kempton Handicap won by Zulu Oscar (Imperial Cup favourite and Betfair Hurdle fourth Affaire D’Honneur in second) reads well and confirmed that Two Taffs is crying out for this step up to two and a half miles. Everything looks perfect for him here: a likely strong pace, the extra distance and his rather generous-looking mark of 126 (Brain Power now rated 134, Affaire D’Honneur – 133, Zulu Oscar – 140) give him a big chance, but at the prices and his tendency to not be able to get there late, there could be something at a bigger price worth backing against him.
David Pipe, who won this in 2009 with the brilliantly-named Big Eared Fran, runs Chic Theatre here and if the six-year-old’s improvement carries on in the same vein as it has done previously, he’ll have a chance. He edged out Alan King’s The Unit despite giving that rival 6lb and making a significant error at the last in the race at Doncaster. However, he is another who wants to be right up there with the pace and I can see all these front-runners setting things up for a late charge.
Divine Spear represents Nicky Henderson, who has won this in two of the last five years and despite finishing third behind Chic Theatre last time out, he looks to hold decent claims off a mark of 127. He is seen as a chaser in the making, but this race is often a stepping stone to a novice chasing campaignPaul Nicholls, who won the race last year with the useful As De Mee, saddles ALCALA, who won well in a first time tongue-tie added to his usual hood last time out at Fontwell. His mark has stayed on 125 after that and while it wasn’t the most strikingly impressive win, it was confirmation that he is going the right way. Harry Cobden will take a hugely valuable 7lb off this horse’s back, and if his improvement carries on, he could have a huge chance off what would effectively be bottom weight. He’ll love the stiff finish and the fast pace and I think 14/1 greatly underestimates his chance in what could be a race run to suit – he rates an excellent bet here.
Advice
ALCALA – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Sky Bet & Ladbrokes)
2.35 Sandown Park – The Kings Mistral Handicap Steeple ChaseRelax heads up nine runners in this, and Venetia Williams’ eleven-year-old needs to bounce back from three poor runs this season. However, despite unseating at Newbury, there were some shoots of hope in the performance, travelling nicely behind the leader and looked a big threat when getting rid of Liam Treadwell. This looks a weaker race than that contest and although he’s at the top of the weights, he only has to give 7lb maximum to any other runner. The soft ground and the right-handed track are in his favour and his class could well shine through.
Mosspark and Financial Climate, for Emma Lavelle and Oliver Sherwood respectively, contested this race last year, with Oliver Sherwood’s charge coming out on top by just three-quarters of a length. But this year, Financial Climate races off a 6lb higher mark whereas Mosspark only has 1lb more to carry; this makes it difficult to see Financial Climate confirming that form, especially given Mosspark is still lightly raced and ran a decent race on his seasonal debut, a race won by Aloomomo at Doncaster.
Richard Johnson gets the ride on Philip Hobbs’ BERTIE BORU, who didn’t give Tom O’Brien the best of spins at this track last time out, blundering at multiple fences before staying on late into fifth. While the Champion jockey elect will certainly be able to get a tune out of him if there’s one to be found, I think the addition of cheekpieces for the first time could play a bigger role in sharpening up his jumping. I’m sure there will still be the odd nervous moment, but at 1lb below his last winning mark and on this stiff finish that he does seem to enjoy, he’s certainly worth a punt at a fair price.
Benenden is the current market leader, and the Michael Scudamore-trained eight-year-old did improve significantly for the step up to three miles in his last race at Musselburgh in January. However, he does seem a horse that is at home on better ground and the 10lb rise in the weights he received could well be a harsh reaction from the handicapper, especially given it was a fairly average race and he made some significant jumping errors.
Advice
BERTIE BORU – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Sky Bet & Betfair)
3.10 Sandown Park – The Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle Race (Grade 3)The strongest trend in this race concerns weight and the cut-off appears to be set at eleven stone. Since Polar Red (11st 1lb) and Korelo (11st 6lb) won in 2002 and 2003 respectively all of the subsequent winners carried less than 11st to victory. Of this year’s field, only top weight Rayvin Black falls foul of this trend so it would be prudent to strike a line through him for starters.
The trends surrounding the ages of past winners of the Imperial Cup is an intriguing one. The most successful group of runners are those aged six and below who have put their head in front in nine of the last eleven renewals. There are only five horses in this year’s renewal who sit outside this particular bracket so that’s a black mark for Rayvin Black, Sea Wall, Ebony Express, Spice Fair and Clayton.
Martin Pipe loved nothing more than winning the Imperial Cup, a feat he achieved six times during his career, probably something to do with the fact that the sponsor offered a whopping bonus if the winner followed up at Cheltenham. Pipe senior collected that bonus on three occasions; twice as a trainer and once as an owner. Son David has wasted no time in picking up where his father left off with back-to-back wins in 2007 and 2008. He landed his third success a couple of years ago with Baltimore Rock but surprisingly isn’t represented in this year’s renewal..
It is quite remarkable given the ultra-competitive nature of the Imperial Cup that six of the last eleven winners had achieved a top two finish on their previous start. It is often the type of race won by progressive sorts and there are several who come here in good form this time around. There are five last time out winners in this year’s line-up including Kingwell Hurdle winner Rayvin Black, Solstice Star, who is in search of a six-timer here and Clayton, who hosed up in a maiden hurdle at Plumpton last month.
It is often said that in such competitive races, you need a horse to be battle-hardened to go well but this has actually been a race in which novice hurdlers have done exceptionally well. In fact, they have produced nine of the last eleven winners and account for nine of this year’s fifteen-strong field. That puts a tick in the box for the likes of Affaire d’Honneur, For Good Measure and Flying Angel.
Despite the competitive nature of the Imperial Cup, those towards the head of the betting market have tended to do well, with the first four in the betting accounting for seven of the last eleven winners. Affaire d’Honneur currently heads proceedings, with the likes of For Good Measure, Solstice Star and Clayton in behind, although horses can still switch around at this stage.
Shortlist
FOR GOOD MEASURE – 5/6
Solstice Star – 5/6
Affaire d’Honneur – 4/6
Clayton – 4/6
Knockgraffon – 4/6
Allee Bleue – 4/6
ConclusionWith no David Pipe runner in the field, the stats should really read 5/5 which makes FOR GOOD MEASURE and Solstice Star solid trends selections. However, marginal preference is for the former as, although the five-year-old doesn’t hail from the Pipe yard, he does represent connections that have enjoyed success in this race in the past. Qaspal landed the odds for Philip Hobbs and JP McManus back in 2010 and their runner this time round has virtually the same profile, taking four runs to get his act together before notching a pair of wins in handicap hurdles. He struck in good style under a penalty at Exeter in December and although he he races here off a 10lb higher mark, he looked to have more than enough in hand when winning that day. He has relished getting his toe in so the likely testing conditions should really suit him here and although he will probably step up in trip in the future, two miles in testing ground looks to be his forte at the present time.
Solstice Star has been a different animal this year and goes in search of the six-timer here. He had some decent form in bumpers at the beginning of his career and took a while to get the hang of the jumping game, but now he has, there seems to be no ceiling to him. His latest victory from 5lb out of the handicap was impressive so he arrives here off only a 2lb higher mark, which looks to be very lenient of the handicapper. That race at Cheltenham was a very hot affair with Scottish Champion Hurdler Cheltenian in second and subsequent Victor Ludorum Juvenile Hurdle winner Frodon back in third. He certainly is an intriguing proposition and there really isn’t a great deal between him in the selection.
Although these two are out in front, there are a quartet in behind on 4/6 that were snapping at their heels. Allee Bleue and Knockgraffon are only slightly behind as, at the time of writing, they find themselves outside of the first four in the betting. The stablemate of the selection, Allee Bleue has the services of Champion Jockey-elect Richard Johnson as he goes in search of the hat-trick while Knockgraffon drops back down in trip as he attempts to regain the winning thread.
The remaining pair that only miss out on two of the trends are the other two that complete the top four in the betting. Affaire d’Honneur is the unlucky loser here as he didn’t finish in the first two last time out, but would likely have finished a lot closer if he hadn’t completely blown the start in the Betfair Hurdle. He currently heads the market as a strong favourite and has the profile of a horse that usually thrives in this contest. Clayton is somewhat of an odd case as although he matches with most of the trends, he is a seven-year-old which takes him down a notch. However, he is lightly-raced in the National Hunt sphere having only made his debut in November so could be the type of horse to buck the age trend.
Advice
FOR GOOD MEASURE – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (bet365, BetVictor & William Hill)
3.45 Sandown Park – The EBF British Stallion Studs & TBA Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race)
I quite enjoy these high-class bumper races, and there could be some really good mares/fillies lurking in here – Copper Kay sounds like she’s one of the apples of Richard Johnson’s eye and the fact he chooses to ride her here giving 4lb to the field, rather than her unbeaten stablemate Tearsofclewbay, is a pointer in itself. Copper Kay did actually finish fourth in this race last year after being severely hampered three furlongs from home and staying on well. She’s clearly high-class and to be 7/4 in this type of race tells you plenty about her chance, but it’s too short to recommend an investment given the weights and possible traffic problems she could again encounter.Avellino is a very interesting entry from Ireland and trainer Dermot McLoughlin, especially when you consider this mare was just beaten by a Willie Mullins hotpot Lucky Pass, in November, before going on to annihilate Gigginstown’s Annihilate in December and take a Mares’ bumper at Fairyhouse in January, showing a good attitude – she’ll certainly hold claims if keeping that up.
Warren Greatrex thinks a lot of The Nipper and her place in the market (5/1 2nd fav) reflects the yard confidence, but looking at her two wins so far, there isn’t much substance to her form in two weak Bangor bumpers. She may well be a very good mare, but on the balance of what she’s done so far, I’ll pass on her here.
One that I really like the look of is Harry Whittington’s WOOLSTONE ONE, who has won two one and a half bumpers in great style, especially her second run at Wetherby. This four-year-old filly is held up in high regard by a very shrewd yard, and despite the owner saying she may not run in this because it would be difficult to take on older horses, here she is. Whittington does not tilt at windmills and he must think this filly is good enough to run very well here in receipt of 8lb from most of the field and 12lb from Copper Kay – she has a lot of speed and if the trip proves no problem, 7/1 could be a big price indeed. Don’t forget, Babylone Des Mottes won this as a four-year-old last year, so it’s certainly not unheard of.
Advice
WOOLSTONE ONE – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Sky Bet &Betfair)
4.40 Ayr – The Ortus Homes Handicap HurdleWith the Cheltenham Festival just peeking over the horizon, it may seem a little odd to be getting excited about a Class 3 handicap hurdle at Ayr but WESTERN RULES has certainly got the juices flowing. The unexposed six-year-old makes his handicap debut here following a four decent runs in novice events earlier in the season. He was a smart bumper horse at the beginning of last campaign and was not without his followers in the Aintree Champion Bumper but found that race just one step too far. He entered this season as a hurdler to keep a close eye on and although turned over at odds-on on his debut, that has turned out to be pretty strong form as the winner Jonniesofa has since gone on the land the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle. He has had high expectations to live up to having been sent off favourite on every start over the sticks and hasn’t managed to get his head in front since shedding his maiden tag in December. I’m not normally one for excuses but he was unsuited by the better ground when third at Sedgefield in January and was made to pay for setting the fractions when dropped in trip at Kelso last time out. The return to 2m4f coupled with the likely testing ground look to be his ideal conditions and a mark of 122 for his handicap debut looks to be pretty lenient in my eyes.
Shades Of Midnight could be his closest opposition on the back of his facile victory last time out. He does have a 13lb rise in the handicap to contend with here and subsequently finds himself at the top of the weights but he was so impressive that day that looks capable of running up to at least that level. He does drop back down in trip which doesn’t look to be ideal given he has made the impression that he is every bit a stayer but could well benefit if the race turns out be a test of stamina.
Donald McCain has started to hit a bit of form recently and his Desert Cry arrives here after a fairly long spell in the doldrums. Once a pretty smart chaser, the now ten-year-old has failed to progress and hasn’t got his head in front for over two years now. However, the assessor has relented and he now finds himself on a much reduced mark – 5lb lower than his last winning mark over hurdles. It would require a huge leap of faith to side with him but if he recaptures anything like what we know he is capable of, he would have a leading role to play.
Advice
WESTERN RULES – 2pts win @ SP
4.45 Chepstow – The TORI Global And The Samaritans Handicap Steeple Chase.This weekend’s racing looks a little bit dicey, which is only to be expected with Cheltenham on the horizon, but this looks like one of the most competitive affairs despite the select field.
Tornado In Milan is an interesting runner coming here after a fruitful spell over the sticks. His chase mark is 8lb lower than over hurdles and he showed some decent form over fences earlier in the campaign, finishing placed (albeit by a fair way) in a couple of valuable handicaps. On the face of it, he looks to be a leading contender but he has never hit the heights over the larger obstacles and you have to go back over two years for his last win in this sphere. Also, he has seemed to be a Taunton specialist with each of his last four wins coming at the Somerset track and may be better over further than two miles these days.
Therefore, PRESSURIZE is the selection on the back of two cosy wins. He is remarkably lightly-raced for a ten-year-old, having had only five career starts, and only made his debut at the age of nine in January last year. It says a lot that connections have stuck by him despite his problems and their perseverance has started to pay off this year. He opened his account on handicap debut at Taunton in January, winning in nice style despite making a few ‘novicey’ errors throughout. He looked to be very well treated next time up having only been raised 4lb by the assessor and duly scored again, although a final flight blunder almost put paid to his chances. He has gone up another 8lb here but is still progressing the right way and is fancied for the win. He must start to eradicate these worrying jumping errors though as he steps up in class.
Johnny Farrelly has got a fine tune out of All Together of late and he goes in search of his third win this campaign here. His latest victory was a bit of a non-event in truth as although the three runners were equally matched, it was a typical small-field affair with little pace on offer. He is a five-year-old going the right way though and must have a decent shout.
Advice
PRESSURIZE – 1pt win @ SP
4.55 Sandown Park – The Kilbrittain Castle Handicap Steeple Chase.This is a trappy little contest but MINELLA RECEPTION stands out as a likely type to take advantage. The ten-year-old has been ultra-consistent throughout his career but seems to really be finding his footing now tackling fences. He had a spell on the sidelines after opening his chasing account at the first time of asking early last season and came back in December with a strong showing at Haydock, travelling nicely when falling three out in ground that wouldn’t have been ideal. He was pitched into a hot handicap at Ascot next time and performed with credit before registering a career-best at Warwick last time out. It was a pretty competitive affair that day but he looked like the winner from a fair way out and once asked for an effort traversing the last, he sauntered clear to a wide-margin victory. On the face of it an 8lb rise is more than fair as he seemed to have a great deal more than that in the locker and this contest doesn’t look to be nearly as strong.
Howlongisafoot was well beaten in fourth behind the selection at Warwick and has failed to live up to expectations since landing an early-season handicap chase at Taunton in November. His performances since have been slightly troubling and a further 2lb drop in the weights doesn’t look enough to make him competitive. Shangani hinted at a return to form when second behind him at Taunton but is another that has gone off the boil since. He now finds himself on his lowest mark for over three years so he has been given a chance by the assessor but his two years without a win and last month’s particularly poor showing at Exeter are big concerns.
There doesn’t seem to be a ceiling with Anay Turge in recent years as he continues to shoot up the handicap and remains competitive. He kicked off a hat-trick of wins last spring when landing this contest last year and turns up in the search of a four-timer. The concern would be that he hasn’t been seen since May and his record fresh isn’t the greatest coupled with a 15lb higher mark than when narrowly landing last year’s race. Conor Smith does take a valuable 7lb off his back but I think the percentage call is for him to be best watched here.
Advice
MINELLA RECEPTION – 2pts win @ 13/8 (Betfair)
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Venue: Haydock Park
Date 7th March
Panel: BH – Brian Hughes (Jockey), MJ – Marten Julian (Dark Horses), AG – Andy Gibson (Proform), TH – Trevor Harris (Starsports)
Supreme
BH – Min too short – hot headed. Altior best English horse.
MJ – thinks Min got a physical problem that bothers him – blood vessel issues ? Buveur D’air the star bet.
AG – Min price down to hype – weakest of Mullins favs. Altior really good on times – rock solid. Supersundae e/w.
TH – Thinks Min will be around 3/1 on the day. Thinks Yorkhill will run here.Arkle
BH – Couldn’t back Arzal if he found the money ! Douvan will win.
MJ – Arzal will lead, will be shorter in running than current price for in running players.
AG – Douvan wins if jumps round. Sizing John without Douvan.
TH – Douvan unopposableChampion Hurdle
BH – MTOY will be more settled with Barry Geraghty but thinks The New One has good chance.
MJ – Layer of Annie Power, Top Notch too big – value of the race at 20s.
AG – Annie you have to oppose. Will suit hold up horses – The New One more substance to his profile – decent e/w bet.
TH – Got to lay Annie, no recent form over 2 miles. Hargam more weight than MTOY in the gallops. Camping Ground if soft.Mares Hurdle
BH – VVM should win. Aurora Destouval had wind op since last run – worth a chance e/w
MJ – Likes Bitofapuzzle & Governess
AG – Won’t bet in race but would be interested in Aurora Destrouval without VVM
TH – Bitofapuzzle if pressed.Other Races
BH – Roi de Francs in 4 miler – Minella Rocco too many mistakes.
MJ – Ultima – Carole’s Destrier had wind op. Want to be on Doctor Harper wherever it runs. Javert in novice handicap.
AG – Ultima – Southfield Theatre if it runs. Vyta du Roc NRNB if it runs.
TH – Large bet on Doctor Harper NRNB.Neptune
BH – Yanworths race to lose but told Au Toi Phil working as well as any other Mullins horse.
MJ – Yanworth flicks hurdles, slow time, possibly peaked too soon. Predict it will be good to soft for start of festival.
AG – Yanworth one of the strongest favs but won’t be backing it. Not a great jumper. Backed Shantou Village NRNB at 14/1.
TH – Poor race but thinks Yanworth will probably win but will take it on.RSA
BH – More of That best horse in the race but not worried about Seeyouatmidnight last time on sticky ground – needs lot of work and the softer the better – a street fighter tries like hell at 12/1 massive e/w value but would rather be on the new track as stiffer.
MJ – Decent renewal More of That always likes and would back it – had a wind op too.
AG – More of That will win no value now but been backing it all year & Vyta du Roc NRNB as saver
TH – No value in No More Heros but things it will win.Champion Chase
BH – Rides Somersby but thinks UDS wins bar a fall. Gods Own best right handed.
MJ – Felix Yonger not good enough to win but will out run odds.
AG – UDS if it jumps round but could be put off by Special Tiara so backed Felix Yonger without UDS.
TH – Happy to lay UDS no big money for it though.Bumper
BH – Been beaten by High Bridge and that could be a possible on good ground.
MJ – Ballyandy token choice.
AG – won’t bet in race but watch it for next year.
TH – Bacardys only horse they’ve laid to any money.JLT
BH – No strong feeling maybe Shaneshill if it runs.
MJ – Not a good contest – not bet in the race.
AG – Heard Black Hercules goes here. Bristol fav by default and concerned on fast ground. Interested in Garde le Victoire if good ground.
TH – Not a grade 1 race. Bristol the right favourite.Ryanair
BH – Oscar Rock interesting on good ground if runs in this.
MJ – No views
AG – Backed Village Vic NRNB and thinks fine on decent ground. Small interest on Smashing in case soft ground.
TH – Road to Riches as nothing else in it.World Hurdle
BH – Heard whisper Cole Hardens wind worse than ever ! Whisper & Kilcooley both e/w.
MJ – Whisper each way – will out run odds.
AG – Backed Thistlecrack all year at bigger odds also had Whisper e/w without fav.
TH – Thistlecrack laid at all rates down – couldn’t back now at the price though.Triumph Hurdle
BH – would ride Gorbatov if he could ride any.
MJ – Gorbatov had a stone bruise before last ran will be different proposition on good ground. Conetable would be the choice – best bet of the meeting !
AG – Gorbatov a false fav – would be double figure price with different connections. Sceau Royal most likely to run his race – strong placepot player.
TH – Zubayr the worst price of any horse at the meeting. Sceau Royal should be the fav.Albert Bartlett
BH – Has ridden against Barters Hill loads and races lazily and keeps finding so stick with it.
MJ – Gangster working well but Shantou Village if good ground.
AG – Barters Hill will be bigger in running. Shantou Village won’t run if soft.
TH – Barters Hill will drift on day. Blue et Rouge will run here !Gold Cup
BH – Would love to see Cue Card win but a gruelling race so would back Don Poli and Smad Place.
MJ – Couldn’t have anything with stamina doubt so against Vautour. Don Cossack tough battler who can win ugly.
AG – 4 of top 5 in the market ground dependent. Vautour can’t have on soft. Djackadam only interesting on soft. Cossack needs good ground. Poli on good to soft or softer is the must bet.
TH – Between the Dons & Smad Place a big price e/w. -
Exeter Cheltenham Preview Evening – Friday, 26th February
Richard Hoiles (RH) (host), Harry Derham (HD), Philip Hobbs (PH), David Pipe (DP), Nick Schofield (NS) & Luke Tarr (LT) (Star Sports)
HD – Our [Paul Nicholls stable] main hopes are with are 4yos in the Triumph and Fred Winter. Last week we had 9 winners and the horses are looking well.
PH – We have very few horses for the Grade 1 conditions event which makes life very difficult.
DP – We don’t have many favourites, if any, but hopefully we can get some nice priced winners.
Day 1 SupremeNS – [On Min] There’s no better jockey to help him settle than Ruby and he will probably ride him similar to Douvan. I think there is plenty of hype around Min though and we are hoping Nico can bring his ‘A’ game on day 1 with Altior and Vaniteux.
DP – The Supreme is the only race Moon Racer is entered in and I saw him loose school this morning and everything is going well and I’m still hopeful of getting there. It’s a mountain to climb but we are still in with a shout; much will depend on his schooling and not getting him fit, I’m not worried about that. If we can get him there in his best form then he could be the one to give Min a race
HD – I know Johnny Burke and he really likes Supasundae and he’s 14/1. I’d be keen to take Min on as he could easily get lit up.
RH – I’m also against Min as he’s too short for what he has done
ArklePH – [Garde La Victoire] He’s in the Arkle and the JLT and we will leave the decision until the last minute so we can wait and see what runs in what race. I think I’d rather take on Bristol De Mai than Douvan because we’ve beaten him. However, I think we are looking like placing so it will be a case off which race are we most likely to place in. If it came up soft we would definitely go for the Arkle.
DP – I think 2/5 about Douvan is value – he’s been to the Festival and done it before.
HD – I can’t see past Douvan
RH – I also think Douvan will run and the likely small field will allow him to be able to dictate.
Champion Hurdle [On where Annie Power should run]NS – I’d run Annie Power in the Mares’ as she would be a good thing. She’s not an out-an-out Champion Hurdle horse in my eyes.
DP – They’ll go for the Champion Hurdle and that’s what I would do too.
PH – If she was a gelding I’d definitely go to the Champion but it depends what breeding interest they have.
HD – I remember her winning at Punchestown over 2m and Willie Mullins said afterwards that she’s not a 2m horse and wants further. She’s not had the ideal Champion Hurdle prep and she’s not a bomb proof jumper. All she’d have to do is canter around in the Mares’ race.
LT – I think Rich Ricci has wanted to run her in her in the Champion Hurdle the last two years. I think she is the biggest certainty to run in the Champion but whether she will or not is a different question.
[On the race]
HD – Nichols Canyon for me – he’s won six Grade 1 and I think 2m is his trip. He’s a very, very good horse and he’d be the one I’d want to ride. Old Guard is a lively outsider but that’s it; he’s not good enough to win it.
PH – I think Annie Power will win but I think 7/1 is each-way value on The New One if he’s back to his best. His performance at Haydock was much better than it looked and he jumped much straighter.
DP – I’d go for Annie Power.
NS – Old Guard has done nothing but improve and has a good each-way chance. You’ll see a much better horse than what we saw at Kempton.
OLBG Mares’ HurdleHD – [on Tara Point] It’s only a 50-50 chance she’ll make it. She’s extremely talented but everything would need to go right with her. She’s big and strong but very fragile and is difficult to train.
Ultima Handicap ChasePH – Champagne West will run at Kempton on Saturday and the result will determine where he runs at the Festival. Sausalito Sunrise might run in the Ultima Handicap Chase but would be top weight. Our main hope in the race would be Kruzhlinin and going left-handed will suit much better and he could be the one to provide the Rooney’s with their first Cheltenham Festival winner.
DP – Un Temps Pour Tout will run over 3m but I’m not sure which race [also in the World Hurdle]. He hasn’t reached the same heights over fences as he did over hurdles and has a chance off 145 and I want to run him here but the owners might want to run in the World Hurlde.
HD – I think Southfield Theatre will run in this race. He’s been a bit disappointing this season but he has a good record at the Festival finishing second twice and he’s been trained for this race.
Other racesHD – [Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase] Bouvreuil is a horse we like a lot and the 2m4f trip will suit him.
LT – [National Hunt Chase] There’s been a lot of money for Native River.
Day 2Neptune LT – It’s a race without any strength and depth and could cut up – 5 of the first 10 in the betting are unlikely to run and Yanworth is a long way clear.
DP – When Yanworth won at Cheltenham he cruised past Champers On Ice and Shantou Village, who are both good horses, and he will be very hard to beat.
HD – Alan King has trained some very good horses and he said he could be the best he’s trained and that’s good enough to me.
RSALT – No More Heroes is the clear favourite and there’s been solid support all winter. If Willie Mullins wasn’t around then Gordon Elliott would be champion trainer in Ireland and all he wants to do is talk about this horse. Blaklion is solid and is a nice each-way price and Seeyouatmidnight is also very good value and he would be about 5/1 if he was trained by someone else.
NS – Brian Hughes says better ground will suit Seeyouatmidnight so he’d be my pick
DP – I know Gordon [Elliott] likes No More Heroes a lot and he’s the one to beat but I’d go with Seeyouatmidnight; he’s solid and would be much shorter if he was trained by someone else.
PH – Blaklion perhaps but it’s an open race.
HD – Seeyouatmidnight has a good profile for this race.
Champion ChaseHD – [Dodging Bullets] I was bitterly disappointed with his run at Newbury and although the ground was soft, if you were going to win the Champion Chase you’d have to beat Top Gamble and we have a mountain to climb.
PH – Sprinter Sacre is nothing like the horse he was and Un De Sceaux looks a good thing. If you were looking for an each-way bet then Sire De Grugy.
DP – It’s great to see Sprinter Sacre running in the race and although he’s not back to his best, he is still very good. Un De Sceaux Is still the one to beat though.
NS – I can see Un De Sceaux leaving the others in his trail. Anyone who takes him on will ruin their own race.
Coral Cup
HD – Politologue is a really nice horse but on a mark of 140 doesn’t look well-handicapped and whether he’s man enough to win the Coral Cup I would have my doubts. I wouldn’t think he’s better than last year’s winner [Aux Ptits Soins] either. Baoulet Delaroque may have done his winning for this season having won three on the spin.
PH – We run Rock The Kasbah and he’s won two in a row so has gone up in the weights but the trip will suit and has a good each-way chance. He prefers soft ground.
DP – [Starchitect will hopefully come on for finishing 2nd in the Betfair and what also was encouraging was he made a bad mistake, but is more likely to run in the County and he should be competitive.
[Kings Palace] he runs in a Pertemps qualifier at Chepstow and has to finish in the first six to qualify. He stopped quickly in the Paddy Power and has had a wind op. He hasn’t been schooling well and he doesn’t like soft ground which is why he hasn’t run. He’ll improve for the run and is rated 5lb lower over hurdles and he could run well if he’s back to his best. I have a lot of belief in this horse but it does require a leap of faith because he has disappointed me a few times now.
X-CountryPH – Balthazar King is in good nick and we want good ground in March. His work at home as been as good as ever but he’s now got a dent on his side so whether that will affect his lung capacity I don’t know. It hasn’t stopped him at home and we’ve done plenty with him. Duke Of Lucca won’t run this season.
HD – Sire Collonges is in good form and has been trained for the race but I doubt he’ll be good enough but will run his race.
Fred WinterHD – Diego du Charmil is a horse we like and his handicap mark is ‘fine’. Frodon will probably run in the Triumph.
Weatherbys Champion BumperPH – We have Westend Story in this and he’s unbeaten in bumpers but has beaten moderate opposition very easily.
DP – Ballyandy is favourite and has good form but Sue Gardner’s Coeur Blimey beat him at Ascot and is a bigger price.
LT – High Bridge could be one at 25/1 – 28/1. John Ferguson trained New Year’s Eve to finish 2nd in the race and he could be a lively outsider if he runs.
Thursday JLTLT – One horse which has been well-backed is Three Musketeers (14/1 from 25/1) and definitely goes for this race. I can see Bristol De Mai finding one horse to good and it’s a good race for bookmakers. I’m going to side with Outlander as I think he’s a natural over fences.
PH – I’m favouring this race for Garde La Victoire but we will wait and see what runs.
HD – As De Mee runs in this but he was well stuffed by Bristol De Mai and I can’t see him winning.
DP – Bristol De Mai will take a lot of beating for me. He want soft ground and with the race being on the Thursday, if it hasn’t rained by then they will have watered so the ground will be dead and he’ll get his ground.
NS – Not sure what Bristol De Mai has beaten and I like Mr Hobbs’s horse Garde La Victoire; I think he’ll stay and is a solid jumper – I can see him beating Bristol De Mai.
RyanairHD – We run Vibrato Valtat and he’s an extremely likeable horse. I think the 2m4f trip will suit and he’s in really good order. The race could cut up but he could find one or two too good. I’d fancy Al Ferof if it was first time out but I can’t see him winning the race.
DP – Dynaste ran well at Ascot last time out and whilst he’s not getting any younger I’m hopeful there are a few more good days in him yet. He’s better left-handed and the better ground and wind op make him a lively outsider at big odds; he’s in great form at home and is a pleasure to have in the yard.
NS – [Al Ferof] I don’t think he’s improved for Dan [Skelton] and it would have to be a bad Ryanair if he won.
World HurdleLT – Thistlecrack keeps improving and looked imperious at Cheltenham last time out and although I always get this horse wrong, I do fancy him for this race. Think Thistlecrack and Alpha Des Obeaux are well clear. Saphir Du Rheu and Aux Ptits Soins are viable each-way options and whichever one Sam rides will shorten up considerably.
HD – Nick Schofield is one of the best judges and he loves Aux Ptits Soins but he likes Saphir Du Rheu for this race. APS has had lots of problems and faces an impossible task on the face of it but he’s one of the best horses I’ve ever sat on.
RH – I think the current 16/1 on offer for Saphir Du Rheu is good value – he will certainly trade shorter nearer the time.
NS – I don’t think even Paul knows which one has the best chance. They are both good enough but they have more to prove than Thistlecrack, who is very solid.
DP – Thistlecrack is the one they all have to beat but Ditcheat are quietly confident.
Other racesDP – La Vaticane is entered everywhere and is a very nice horse. We might try some sort of headgear but she is down the weights and may not get in.
RH – John’s Spirit in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate. They’ve done very well to get his handicap mark down and he’s back to a workable mark. He’s been running on softer ground than ideal and I’d be very surprised if he was still 20/1 if he lined up on good ground on the day.
NS – Art Mauresque could join John’s Spirit in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate; on better ground he should be bang there.
Kim MuirRH – Our Father has been well-backed today for Gordon Elliott
DP – Gordon [Elliott] said Our Father is going very well and first time out is the time to catch him. Katkeau could run and the step up in trip will suit; we ran him over 2m3f last time to help brush his jumping up. Standing Ovation could sneak in and these would be my two in the race.
LT – The money coming for Our Father speaks volumes; there has been significant money for him.
Pertemps PH – [If In Doubt] He’s a much better horse over hurdles and in my opinion he needs 3m plus and he will hopefully have a good chance.
TriumphHD – [Connetable] We weren’t surprised when he won at Sandown and I like him; he’s very tough and very hard and he would be my pick for the Triumph. Of all our 4yos however I like Clan Des Obeaux; I love him but he might not be hard enough, but I expect him to be the best of these in the future.
LT – Ivanovich Gorbatov has to be the worse priced runner at the Festival and I don’t understand how he is this short – I look forward to laying him on the day.
Albert BartlettLT – If I could have any horse in training in the UK it would be Barters Hill; he keeps on winning and the horses he beats keep coming out and winning too. I think he’s the nuts and I don’t think there’s a lot behind him – I love the horse and I want to back him and I want him to win.
DP – Champers On Ice represents each-way value and the step up to3m will suit, however we have been beaten by Shantou Village already.
Gold CupLT – It’s a brilliant, brilliant race. If I had to pick one it would be Cue Card because he has the speed and class. I’d also say Don Poli; he’s a big boat but he stays forever.
DP – I think Don Cossack is very good but he’s not a Gold Cup winner to me. I’ve always like Djakadam so it’s him or Cue Card for me.
PH – I don’t think Cue Card will win because I still don’t think he’s a thorough stayer, which Don Cossack is and he’s my selection. Smad Place each-way as well.
HD – I’m going to say something controversial here but I’m not sure Bryan Cooper gets on with Don Cossack – I’m not criticising Bryan Cooper because he’s a brilliant jockey but the horses record without him his better. I think whatever Ruby rides will win and I think he’ll ride Vautour.
County HurdleHD – I like Some Plan; he’s talented and he’s travelled well to two out the last twice and not jumped. Good ground is key and if they go flat out it will suit him and I love it when Paul trains one for a race.
PH – We have Wait For Me and after three runs over hurdles he is rated 131 and there could be lot of improvement to come for him, but he needs to jump and settle better. The could be lots more improvement to come on better ground too. The quicker they go might help as they’ve been going slow in his races to date.
Best Bets of the meetingLT – Altior and Barters Hill
HD – Aux Ptit Soins and Qualando (Martin Pipe)
PH – Balthazar King [if it’s good ground]
RH – John’s Spirit
DP – Doctor Harper [whichever race he runs in]
NS – Connetable (e/w)
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2016 festival entries:media pack.follow the link
https://steeplechasing.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/fez16-hcap-entries-press-release.pdf
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another preview that a friend let me share
Panel included David Mullins, Johnny Burke, Ollie Murphy (head lad at Elliott's)
Supreme:
DM: Was riding him earlier in year, is the real deal, keen at Punchestown last time, better ground and better race to suit.
JB: Huge outside chance in Supasundae, getting the hang of jumping. Min class apart.
OM: Like tombstone a lot on him at big prices, unlucky at Christmas, heard Min best since the fly, but thought he got worked up at Punchestown last time could beat himself. Altior straight forward, main threat.
Arkle:
JB: Can't beat Douvan, broke SJ heart at Christas, can't confirm SJ will go to Arkle but can't really step up to JLT trip for first time at festival. SJ could be closer on better ground couldn't go with Douvan on heavy last time.
DM: Thinks SJ could put it up to Douvan on better ground, said anyone backing Tell Us More take fallers insurance.
OM: Game Changer needs good ground has entry in grand annual but probably goes Arkle as it'll cut up.
Champion:
DM: NC to make it, hard to know where AP fits in, would pick NC as doesn't know where AP fits in race.
JB: AP the one to beat, ruby to use stamina take off in front. If he could pick one would be on IT, had a break and better ground and fresheness will bring improvement. Said anyone backing AP watch out if its sunny in case of shadows.
OM: Like IT, AP too keen, likes NC too but no strong opinion as no entry.
Mares:
DM: If AP goes champion VVM wins, can't see it beat. Ballychorus big one at a price with ew claims.
4m:
DM: RDF takes a lot of beating, jumps, stays, PA lacks a gear but might be race for him, could bring best out.
OM: NE jumps well and stays well but quirky but wouldnt put you off. Lined up for race all season, will like decent ground.
JB: Minnello Rock = Certainty, given "kind" ride to say the least last day and runs as a winner without a penalty.
3m hcap ch:
PP rep: Said Jonjo must have something for it if MR doesnt run as didn't go up in handicap after 2nd the weekend.
JB: Shanahans Turn runs, big chance if back to form.
Neptune:
DM: LD should be jfav with YW. Still gives Danny stick for being beat in a maiden on it. Beat BER who is shorter he wont go there. Busiest horse all summer forgotten about now. 95% sure he runs.
JB: at a price ATP, vigil form boost the weekend. YW visually impressive happy to take on.
OM: YW banker on day 2. doubtful general principal runs but out weekend and should win.
CC:
DM: UDS vulnerable if someone (ST) gets to first before him, will sulk. Would love to be on ST.
JB: UDS wins if stands. ST & UDS to take off break SS heart. Hes on SG and will ride to pick up pieces. Runs well fresh, better ground a plus.
OM: No entries, big negative DB, Nichols aint been champ for running horses unfit. SS doesnt give same vibe.
RSA:
OM: NMH straight forward, stays, not flash. MOT a negative as didnt run when engaged twice. Wouldnt swap NMH. By presenting so better ground a plus.
DM: Can't have MOT. Between NMH & RDF. NMH = Don Poli 2.0.
JB: 2 horse race between NMH MOT, will give him a race.
Bumper:
DM: Castello Sforza nice horse being backed, BG prob be on.
JB: Good vibes about Battleford. Keep eye on Aspen.
OM: No real good bumper horses at GE's. Gigginstown dont like race so.
*managed to catch DM at bar, asked about Augusta Kate, said theyre thinking of switching from Sandown to Cheltenham, pick of Willie's. Mare's allowance, so PM can't do weight ruby will ride. One he would be on if had a choice.
JLT:
DM: Rode SH this morning over whatever was wrong at Donnie last ime.
JB: Trip wont bother SJ cant guarantee he will run.
OM: Big Zabanna fan, thinks hed be half price if trained by WM/GE.
Ryanair
JB: Smashing def goes, loves heavy, handles good.
WH:
All: Thistlecrack class apart
OM: POS good ew on bad ground.
DM: LC 2 time G1 winner, come on massively for run, and trip and better ground and pace, thats 4 things that'll improve him.
Mares Nv:
All like Limini.
JB: Jespers Dream the value.
DM: Cant see past Limini, improve for better ground, jumps ok.
Triumph:
Average bunch all said would forgive AG.
DM: said danny rode sensible last day, likes AJ. Doesnt know if FP best of willies just got best ride.
JB: Keep beating one and other.
AB:
DM: Gangster more impressive beating a horse than Bellshill, confident he'll stay.
JB: Cornered him and said he can't see past BH, has it all and cant get passed, sets standard. Between SV n BH.
OM: SV come on for better ground.
GC:
OM: Everything went wrong in KG for DC, still in shout 2 out. Thinks hed have won. big DA fan, if DP misses one beat race over. Cant have Vautour.
JB: If DC was ridden like V in KG wouldnt have been like Kauto Star's win. Like DA & DP. VL got into deceiving position last time went too hard in front.
DM: Likes DC. Said last race was confidence boost. Excited to ride VL.
Others:
OM: Keep an eye on Jet Stream Jack off 134. Diamond King, Diamond King, Diamond King. Russell to ride. Desoto County bad ride last time off Kennedy. Our Father, goes well fresh, Kim muir, codd to ride. Campeador (FW) face lit up, didn't want to say anything as JP horse, heard from MC after he got in trouble for time cause of causes few years back, JP wasnt happy. The less he said the more confident you felt. Squouateor also mentioned not sure what race.
JB: Sizing Codelco in GA. Aupcharlie in FH (Codd to ride).
DM: Feather Player (I think) beat Diamond king last time good shout in county. -
On 19/02/2016, 18:55:55, beaker1 said:
1.15 Ascot – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle.
This has the look of a thoroughly decent novices’ contest, and it’s one where quality has shone through in the past with six of the last nine winners having already won a Class 1 or 2 hurdle race. Duke Des Champs holds a first preference of the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock, so is unlikely to line up here, but another who carries the maximum penalty, YALA ENKI, surely holds a big chance.
Venetia Williams’ tough French import has done very well since coming to Britain, hammering Duke Des Champs on his Exeter debut and then finishing fifth in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock. He then defeated Westren Warrior and Ibis Du Rheu back over two and a half miles at Kempton and battled on well over three miles at Sandown to finish a close third to a pair of well-handicapped horses. The drop back once more to this intermediate trip can help this free-going sort who loves to dominate from the front and even though he has to give weight to many of his rivals, Yala Enki could have too much experience and staying power on this switch to novice company.
Big Chief Benny is a highly-rated five-year-old in the Alan King stable, but his win at Doncaster doesn’t look up to much form-wise. He’s finished 17 lengths behind Charmix and the same distance behind Buveur D’Air so far over hurdles, so whether he’ll be good enough is a question to be answered, even though you’d expect further improvement.
The step up to two and a half miles worked the oracle for Paul Nicholls’ Mr Mix and the stable was delighted with his development, so there’s no reason to expect his improvement to stop there. He dealt well with the bottomless ground at Taunton on his last start and in defeating Mountain Eagle and Miles To Milan, he registered a decent level of form so can’t be discounted. Nicholls won the race last year with Arpege D’Alene and has won the race three times in the last eight years, so he knows the type needed.
Nicky Henderson won this with the classy Finian’s Rainbow in 2010, and his Premier Bond is another horse who looks set to make a better chaser in future, but he’s already recorded good from over timber. His four and a half length win over William H Bonney in December looks better now after that rival won at Towcester this week and his closing second to stablemate O O Seven was an excellent effort. The step up in trip to two and a half miles should suit this six-year-old very well and he could be the one to challenge Yala Enki at the business end of the race.
Advice
YALA ENKI – 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet365)
1.50 Ascot – The Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)A cracking little race on paper and one in which DRUMACOO ticks all the boxes. The seven-year-old had some eye-catching form in novice hurdles over in Ireland for Michael Hourigan and it was a tad bemusing that he was so weak in the market on his debut for Ben Pauling at Huntingdon in January. He absolutely sluiced up that day and left the 140-rated Fletchers Flyer trailing in his wake. The testing conditions that day certainly played to his strengths and although he won’t encounter anything quite as attritional here, the ground will again be on the soft side. He comes here in search of a five-timer and if he continues his steep upward curve, should have enough to take this contest.
His nearest rival will most likely be Onenightinvienna who has shown some good form over fences the last twice despite only managing to finish runner-up. He ran well in defeat at Cheltenham in December behind subsequent Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase winner Blaklion and arguably should have regained the winning thread at Kempton last time. He has an entry in the Grand National and that may explain his jumping in that contest as he jumped very big early on, suggesting that he may have been schooled over National-style fences. With the National weights already released, a win here wouldn’t affect his handicap mark, so he could be all systems go but the only thing that makes him second-best in my eyes is the form line through Fletchers Flyer. He only beat him just over a length back in November compared to the thirty-eight length defeat that Drumacoo inflicted on him.
With arguably the highest quality form in the book, Vyta Du Roc cannot be discounted by any means. The gallant grey landed a pair of Grade 2 novice hurdles last campaign and was runner-up in a pair of Grade 1s. It could also be mooted that he may have finished a lot closer in the Neptune but for a final fence blunder. However, he has shown far from his best form over fences so far, grounding out a narrow victory in a four-runner affair on his chasing debut before getting turned over at long odds-on by the 136-rated Bouvreuil next time out. Surprisingly, his jumping hasn’t been an issue as he hasn’t really made any mistakes so far but he just hasn’t had the same spark that we saw from him last year over hurdles. He just looks to be lazy during his race which is a massive concern. The step up to three miles could help but he didn’t particularly look like a stayer over the trip in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle last year. Although he finished second, he was well beaten and benefitted from a final flight fall from Alpha Des Obeaux. If you looked at last year’s form, he would be more than good enough, but I think he is on the short side giving what we have seen so far.The remaining three runners are all entitled to their place in the field and not one of them could be classed as a no-hoper. Ballyalton was second to Faugheen in the Neptune back in 2014 and has returned this season in ok form. He was in the midst of mounting his challenge on debut at Warwick until unseating three out and finished a decent second at Market Rasen last time out. He has also been a chaser in the making and the step up in trip should certainly aid him given he is a winning Irish pointer. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to hit the heights of a couple of years ago though.
Le Mercurey looked to be going the right way as a chaser when landing back-to-back victories in the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase, albeit benefitting from a final fence fall from likely winner Amore Alato. However, he has gone off the boil somewhat and was never involved when well-fancied in the Sky Bet Chase last time out. A distinct leap of faith would be required with Minella Rocco whose jumping has left a lot to be desired in his three runs over fences so far. He entered this campaign as one of the leading lights in the novice chasing division but apart from an ok run at Haydock on his chasing debut, he has been very disappointing.
Advice
DRUMACOO – 1pt win @ 9/4 (Betfair)
2.05 Haydock – Betfred ‘Home Of Goals Galore’ Hurdle (Grade 2)This year’s renewal of the Rendlesham could once again turn into a bit of a slog, with heavy ground conditions likely, so you’ll need one with plenty of form on that kind of surface.
Reve De Sivola certainly fits the bill and is rightly favourite given his form, however, he does have to carry 8lb more than every other horse in the race and the record of favourites in the last 10 years is poor, only two have won and at 5/4 and 10/11. Reve De Sivola won’t be that short come the off and he looks vulnerable despite his clear class over hurdles in this type of ground.
Almost at the complete opposite of the scale is Warren Greatrex’s One Track Mind who is at the start of what could well be a very good staying career. He’s been well supported in the market, despite only beating San Benedeto by one and a half lengths last time out and that form, on the face of it, won’t be good enough here.
However, Greatrex rates this horse very highly and you can’t rule out improvement, even though he might want some better ground than this.But this race seems to be a great opportunity to look towards a couple of ‘reclamation jobs’ – At Fishers Cross, who put in a poor effort here last year, hasn’t won since his novice hurdling days, but has plenty of high-class form to his name. The weight allowance could well make a big difference and as he’s always showed his best form this side of Christmas, he could have one of his best opportunities to date to break that duck. His run last time in the Galmoy Hurdle was promising, even though he was well-beaten by Alpha Des Obeaux, and you’d expect him to come on for that.
However, another horse who could be having a ‘second-wind’ in their career is DEPUTY DAN, who returned to hurdles this season after some disappointing experiences chasing and finished third behind Thistlecrack and Reve De Sivola at Ascot in the Long Walk Hurdle last time out. He was about 12 lengths back that day on ground that would have been quick enough, so with the horrid conditions that we’re likely to get and the weight allowance, I can see that gap disappearing. Oliver Sherwood has always thought he was a very talented animal and given these perfect ground conditions and trip just short of the full three miles, the eight-year-old can get his head back in front for the first time since November 2014.
Advice
DEPUTY DAN – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, Betfair)
2.25 Ascot – The Appletiser 50 Year Celebration Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race)Slightly disappointing turnout really but still a tricky little contest to unravel. Spookydooky immediately appealed on the back of his decent effort in bottomless ground when second in the Tommy Whittle last time out. Prior to that, he prevailed in a battling finish at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting and certainly seems to be on the upgrade over fences. He is still relatively inexperienced over the larger obstacles having only had three starts and the suspicion is that he may get found out by one or two of these today. His mark of 142 doesn’t leave a great deal of room for manoeuvre but he does look like a chaser on the upgrade can could well find the required improvement to play a leading role.
Waldorf Salad is an interesting case at the foot of the weights, sneaking in off 10st 6lb. The eight-year-old looked standard fair until improving markedly this season, landing a pair of novice handicap chases at Towcester and Taunton before running a blinding race to finish second on Cheltenham Trials Day last month. Another 5lb rise for that means he has gone up 20lb in total this campaign but Venetia Williams is most adept at finding the right landing spots for her staying chasers and this five-runner affair is an easier opportunity than most to land a sizable prize. He does face a different class of horse here today though and I can see him coming up a bit short.
Until fluffing the landing three out last time, Vieux Lion Rouge had been almost faultless over fences and his completed record reads 3-3. He was a good bumper horse and a better hurdler but always seemed to get found out when he tackled a better class of opposition. Chasing seems to be a completely different game for him though and he was still going ok when unshipping Tom Scudamore at Cheltenham. If he reproduces that effort, he is sure to be there or thereabouts.
However, preference is for SAUSALITO SUNRISE who could just prove to be a class above the rest of the field. The eight-year-old was in the midst of running a cracker when falling behind Coneygree in the 2014 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase and that put paid to the rest of his season. I fancied him on his return at Chepstow but it seems as though he needed that run to blow away he cobwebs as he ran no sort of race despite being heavily backed on the day. He bounced back with aplomb though at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting, landing the Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase with a fine staying performance. He was well beaten at Newbury last time out by 2014 RSA Chase winner O’Faolains Boy but that was a particularly messy race with only two finishers and a line can be struck through that run. In truth, a 6lb rise for his Cheltenham win doesn’t seem to be too harsh and he can regain the winning thread here despite carrying top weight.
Advice
SAUSALITO SUNRISE – 1pt win @ 9/4 (General)
2.40 Haydock – Betfred Grand National Trial (Grade 3)Looking ahead to this weekend and as only Silver By Nature and Rigadin De Beauchene won this race having finished outside the first three on his most recent start, it seems best to side with runners arriving here in form. This spells trouble for the trio of Broadway Buffalo, Gas Line Boy and Rigadin De Beauchene who all arrive here having finished outside the placings last time. It therefore seems imperative to side with a horse heading the right way rather than one looking to bounce back to form.
This level at which previous performances have come is also vitally important with seven of the last ten winners having recorded a victory in Class 2 company or higher prior to contesting this Grade 3 event. Bishops Road, Gas Line Boy, Harry The Viking and Minella On Line all fail to make the cut in this year’s field and will be looking to emulate Well Refreshed, Giles Cross and Silver By Nature who all bucked this trend when winning their respective renewals.
In terms of official ratings, the benchmark for this contest looks to be set at 135 with six of the ten most recent winners having achieved this mark or higher before coming here. This is perhaps surprising given the extra weight these horses had to carry in conditions which are often on the testing side. This narrows the field to five with only the bottom three as they appear in the racecard missing out.
Having briefly alluded to the stamina-sapping conditions that participants often encounter, it is essential that potential winners of the race have the necessary stamina. This is supported by the fact that all of the last ten winners had all recorded previous victories over three miles or further. Therefore it may be best to steer clear of both Broadway Buffalo and Minella On Line as they both have question marks over their stamina.
It could be said that the attribute which is taken for granted most often in National Hunt racing is the ability of a horse to jump the obstacles in front of it, which is especially important over longer distances where horses can get very tired and lose concentration. This can be quantified by noting that of the last ten winners; seven of them had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers. The ones to come unstuck here are Rigadin De Beauchene, Cloudy Too and Gas Line Boy although the first of them had the same blot against his name when winning two years ago so perhaps he can be forgiven for his past misdemeanours.
When considering age, in recent years there has been a shift towards younger runners with six of the last ten winners being aged eight or nine, this includes four of the last six horses to be successful. There are only two runners from the desired bracket this time around, the pair of eight-year-olds Bishops Road and Broadway Buffalo.
Another factor worthy of mention is that all of the last ten winners had run within the last sixty days prior to winning here. Minella On Line only misses the cut by a few days having been off the track for 66 days but there would be more concern for Broadway Buffalo who will be returning from an absence of 105 days.The final factor to be considered is the one looking at the betting and it does not make good reading for favourite backers as only two of the last ten has obliged. Whilst the market is still open to change between now and Saturday afternoon, Kerry Lee’s Welsh Grand National winner Mountainous heads the market at 7/2 and therefore there would have to be question marks about his chances.
Shortlist
BISHOPS ROAD – 7/8
Cloudy Too – 6/8
Mountainous – 6/8
Conclusion
On the trends, the one that stands out is BISHOPS ROAD who won on his first start for the Kerry Lee team at Sandown last month. He misses just one of our trends having failed to win a Class 2 chase and sneaks in on the stamina stat due to his point-to-point success. The stable have been in fine form of late and this lightly-raced eight-year-old looks to have plenty of improvement still to come for his new connections. The booking of Richard Johnson suggests he is likely to be ridden positively and he could be tough to peg back. It looks quite a competitive affair despite the small field and he looks to have a big chance.
Sue Smith’s Cloudy Too was an impressive winner at Haydock last time when landing the Peter Marsh Chase and despite stepping up in trip, he looks likely to run well again this time around. He misses both the age trend and having been a bit careless as a youngster his jumping also saw him miss another trend. It will be tough for him to carry top weight in this ground but he arrives here in good form and looks likely to run well.
The final member of the shortlist is Mountainous who won the Welsh Grand National for the second time back in January. Like the trends pick Bishops Road, he too is trained by Kerry Lee who is forging quite a reputation in her first season with a license. We know he stays well and handles testing conditions but at the age of eleven he is above the desired bracket and he also has the burden of favouritism to carry.
Advice
BISHOPS ROAD – 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, BetVictor)
3.00 Ascot – Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Hurdle.The last time this race was won by anything carrying more than 11-2 was in 2007, and given that only two of the last nine winners carried more than 10-12, it should pay to look beyond those carrying too much weight. Different Gravey may well be the class animal in the race, but having to give almost a stone to nearly all of the field in soft ground means he needs to put up a monumental effort to win. The fact he’s been off since April adds to the doubts, but he’s clearly a high-quality horse so he has his chance.
Roadie Joe, with the impressive Lewis Gordon on board, would be interesting if it wasn’t for the ground. He looks to be more of a spring ground horse and any cut would seem to be against him – unfortunately, there will be plenty of it. He’s improving though, and if he progresses again, he could defy the doubts and put up a good show for Evan Williams. Another improver is Dan Skelton’s Debdebdeb who’s made a decent start over timber, winning two of her four races so far. With Bridget Andrews claiming five off the already low 10-3 that the mare has to carry, she has a chance with the battling qualities she showed last time out, but the form doesn’t look particularly strong and I’ll give her a miss this time.
Currently heading the market is Jonjo O’Neill’s Montdragon, who has won his last two starts in the style of an improving horse, especially at Haydock in December for which he’s gone up 7lb. He will have to step up again here, but with Jonjo’s string entering ‘Cheltenham mode’, you can be sure he’ll be firing and ready to go. Josh Moore rides again and the soft ground should suit but he’s an uninspiring bet at 7/2 in a competitive race.
FINGERTIPS hit the deck at the last at Sandown Park when chasing Akavit in a Juvenile Hurdle two weeks ago, but was in the process of running another decent race – he’s got some good French form and he was slick in beating Polarisation, also at Sandown Park. David Pipe’s four-year-old is let in leniently at the weights, carrying 10lb less than Pull The Cord who is on the same official rating and where that Philip Hobbs-trained rival looks to have fallen into the handicapper’s grip, you can’t say the same for David Pipe’s charge.
He could have a lot more to come, especially on his preferred soft ground and up in trip – being by Martaline, you’d think he’d want at least two and a half miles. A negative is the fact that no four-year-old has won this in the last 10 years, but this big field could help this highly-strung settle better and fulfil some of his undoubted potential. Pipe also won this last year with Unique De Cotte and it’s interesting he’s running in this rather than looking towards the Fred Winter at Cheltenham.
Paul Nicholls’ Sirabad makes the switch back from chasing and he’s certainly another interesting contender given the Nicholls team always had him down as an exciting one for the larger obstacles. His 11 length fourth to Thistlecrack doesn’t make bad reading and his novice hurdle win over Seven Nation Army was a decent effort too. He goes well on soft ground and could be on a decent mark, but this doesn’t seem to have been the plan for this horse and it could be best to keep a watching brief.Advice
FINGERTIPS – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (SkyBet)
3.15 Haydock – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier)As you would expect for one of the last qualifiers for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, it has attracted a competitive field and the weights are headed by Nicky Richards’ Top Billing. The seven-year-old was rapidly progressive in 2014 and returned from a year off to win by a wide margin at Bangor in November. The subsequent 12lb rise gave him a tough task at Doncaster last time but he found only Zeroeshadesofgrey too good on the day. He has gone up another 4lb for that effort but he is clearly a horse on the up and despite conceding weight all around, it is hard to see him finishing outside of the frame.
A similarly progressive performer is Neil King’s The Boss’s Dream who is up to a career-high mark of 139 having won three of his first four starts this term. His latest effort saw him show a fine attitude to hold off his rivals at Warwick and win with a couple of lengths to spare. An extra 9lb could prove difficult to overcome here but he is clearly in fine form and it is difficult to dismiss him.
Jonjo O’Neill has taken this contest a couple of times in recent years and saddles Box Office in his bid to land a third success. The five-year-old has been well-backed in several handicap hurdles in recent times but his latest effort at Sandown in December suggests that this sort of stamina test was likely to bring out further improvement from him. In truth he doesn’t look too well handicapped when you consider that he has yet to win in Britain but Barry Geraghty prefers him to stablemate Mountain Tunes so he would have to be the pick of the pair.
However, I am going to take a chance on one towards the bottom of the weights, in the shape of Gordon Elliott’s WOODFORD ISLAND. The five-year-old was third in a similar contest at Leopardstown in December before winning at Navan last month. Despite his short odds he looked a bit awkward that day although his trainer was keen to stress afterwards that they got the tactics wrong and he would be more patiently ridden last time. He currently sits on a mark of 126 which wouldn’t get him into the final so you would have to think he would need to win well here to have a chance of getting in. It is also interesting that Richard Johnson has been booked to ride him as the pair have a fine strike-rate when teaming up. The 10st 5lb weight is also towards the lower end of Johnson’s capabilities and in fact he has only got down to that once in the last month, when he won on Saddlers Encore at Sandown. He is one of the more lightly-raced members in the field and with him likely to relish the testing conditions, I fancy him to run a big race.
Advice
WOODFORD ISLAND – 2pts win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
3.35 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1)Only eight runners for this Grade 1 contest but there is plenty to discuss, beginning with the favourite Silviniaco Conti who drops back in trip following a below-par effort in the King George last time. The horse’s issues have been well documented but Paul Nicholls was of the belief that he had the ten-year-old in much better form for this assignment. Having worn cheekpieces for his last few outings, he wears blinkers here which could just help him dropping back in trip. The soft ground should make it more of a stamina test and that is likely to suit him but I have the nagging suspicion that he might just find it a bit sharp for him and therefore I think he is worth taking on at the head of the market.
Nicky Henderson won this race twice with Riverside Theatre and saddles two runners here in the shape of Triolo D’Alene and Ma Filleule. The former was an impressive winner on his return to action in January and now looks to have the Grand National in his sights later in the year. He seemed to show last time that he handles soft ground so can’t be ruled out here. His stablemate was second in the race last year but despite winning last time, she hasn’t quite been in the same form this term. She does tend to be better at this time of year but despite receiving 7lb from the rest of the field, I am happy to pass her by.
The one I’m going to side with is DYNASTE who may not have won since winning the Ryanair in 2014 but he has plenty of form subsequently to suggest he has a strong chance here. He has largely been campaigned over 3m in that time and whilst he probably does stay that far, I have no doubt that he is more effective over 2m5f. Something clearly wasn’t right with him in December when he ran in the Long Walk Hurdle here and as well as wearing the tongue-tie/blinkers combination for the first time, he has also had a wind operation since his last run. He is pretty versatile in terms of ground conditions and I fancy him to run a big race on his return. He has finished behind Silviniaco Conti on several occasions in the last couple of years but I feel he is better suited to this trip than the favourite and so he gets the nod.
Of the rest of the field, Royal Regatta is an interesting runner having won here in December but he was beaten in a handicap next time and I think he will find it tough in this sort of company. Flemenstar has plenty of back-class and has showed signs that he retains that ability this term, benefitting from the fall of Un De Sceaux to land the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. He could be the flyer in the market and could offer some value at around the 10/1 mark.
Advice
DYNASTE – 2pts win @ 7/2 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Coral)
4.10 Ascot – The Two Weeks Until Racing UK HD Handicap Hurdle Race.This looks like being one of the more competitive races of the weekend but WHAT A MOMENT stands out ahead of the rest. The six-year-old was purchased by David Pipe for £68,000 after he finished runner-up to Drumlee Sunset (now a 133-rated hurdler for Philip Hobbs) in an Irish point with Fagan, who subsequently racked up a six-timer (three points, two bumpers and a novice hurdle) and finished a narrow second to O O Seven in the Albert Bartlett Scottish Trial, two places further back in fourth.
He showed a good attitude when opening his account under rules in a Towcester bumper just over a year ago, out-battling Briery Queen, who finished second in a Listed mares’ bumper next time out, on the run-in. He disappointed somewhat under a penalty at Uttoxeter but he never settled that day and the race has proven to be stronger than first thought with the winner Definite Outcome finishing in the frame in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Warwick and the runner-up Coeur Blimey landing a Listed bumper at Ascot, and now finding himself to the fore of the market for the Champion Bumper. His hurdling form hasn’t particularly set the world alight but he has run into some classy sorts and on the evidence of his latest fourth (held-up out the back and stayed on despite never having a chance to get on terms), he should certainly appreciate the step up in trip he faces this afternoon. He looks to be on a fair mark for his handicap debut and the application of the first-time tongue strap and hood can only help him settle better into a race where conditions look to be right up his street.
Royale Knight is probably the biggest danger although it remains to be seen how he will run given the Grand National is his aim again this year (6th in 2015). On the bare form of his latest second at Plumpton, he would be entitled to have a decent chance and the 10lb Charlie Hammond takes off his back can only help in a race where only 7lb separates the top twelve in the field.
Captainofindustry is another that could play his part if bouncing back from his below-par effort at Chepstow on Welsh National day. The boggy conditions mean you can pretty much put a line through that race and the fact he has been dropped 1lb by the assessor can only help. He remains with potential and three miles is certainly his trip so is entitled to show his true running this time round.
Advice
WHAT A MOMENT – 2pts win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
3 winners and a nice place, happy-ish with that
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1.15 Ascot – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle.
This has the look of a thoroughly decent novices’ contest, and it’s one where quality has shone through in the past with six of the last nine winners having already won a Class 1 or 2 hurdle race. Duke Des Champs holds a first preference of the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock, so is unlikely to line up here, but another who carries the maximum penalty, YALA ENKI, surely holds a big chance.
Venetia Williams’ tough French import has done very well since coming to Britain, hammering Duke Des Champs on his Exeter debut and then finishing fifth in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock. He then defeated Westren Warrior and Ibis Du Rheu back over two and a half miles at Kempton and battled on well over three miles at Sandown to finish a close third to a pair of well-handicapped horses. The drop back once more to this intermediate trip can help this free-going sort who loves to dominate from the front and even though he has to give weight to many of his rivals, Yala Enki could have too much experience and staying power on this switch to novice company.
Big Chief Benny is a highly-rated five-year-old in the Alan King stable, but his win at Doncaster doesn’t look up to much form-wise. He’s finished 17 lengths behind Charmix and the same distance behind Buveur D’Air so far over hurdles, so whether he’ll be good enough is a question to be answered, even though you’d expect further improvement.
The step up to two and a half miles worked the oracle for Paul Nicholls’ Mr Mix and the stable was delighted with his development, so there’s no reason to expect his improvement to stop there. He dealt well with the bottomless ground at Taunton on his last start and in defeating Mountain Eagle and Miles To Milan, he registered a decent level of form so can’t be discounted. Nicholls won the race last year with Arpege D’Alene and has won the race three times in the last eight years, so he knows the type needed.
Nicky Henderson won this with the classy Finian’s Rainbow in 2010, and his Premier Bond is another horse who looks set to make a better chaser in future, but he’s already recorded good from over timber. His four and a half length win over William H Bonney in December looks better now after that rival won at Towcester this week and his closing second to stablemate O O Seven was an excellent effort. The step up in trip to two and a half miles should suit this six-year-old very well and he could be the one to challenge Yala Enki at the business end of the race.
Advice
YALA ENKI – 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet365)
1.50 Ascot – The Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)A cracking little race on paper and one in which DRUMACOO ticks all the boxes. The seven-year-old had some eye-catching form in novice hurdles over in Ireland for Michael Hourigan and it was a tad bemusing that he was so weak in the market on his debut for Ben Pauling at Huntingdon in January. He absolutely sluiced up that day and left the 140-rated Fletchers Flyer trailing in his wake. The testing conditions that day certainly played to his strengths and although he won’t encounter anything quite as attritional here, the ground will again be on the soft side. He comes here in search of a five-timer and if he continues his steep upward curve, should have enough to take this contest.
His nearest rival will most likely be Onenightinvienna who has shown some good form over fences the last twice despite only managing to finish runner-up. He ran well in defeat at Cheltenham in December behind subsequent Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase winner Blaklion and arguably should have regained the winning thread at Kempton last time. He has an entry in the Grand National and that may explain his jumping in that contest as he jumped very big early on, suggesting that he may have been schooled over National-style fences. With the National weights already released, a win here wouldn’t affect his handicap mark, so he could be all systems go but the only thing that makes him second-best in my eyes is the form line through Fletchers Flyer. He only beat him just over a length back in November compared to the thirty-eight length defeat that Drumacoo inflicted on him.
With arguably the highest quality form in the book, Vyta Du Roc cannot be discounted by any means. The gallant grey landed a pair of Grade 2 novice hurdles last campaign and was runner-up in a pair of Grade 1s. It could also be mooted that he may have finished a lot closer in the Neptune but for a final fence blunder. However, he has shown far from his best form over fences so far, grounding out a narrow victory in a four-runner affair on his chasing debut before getting turned over at long odds-on by the 136-rated Bouvreuil next time out. Surprisingly, his jumping hasn’t been an issue as he hasn’t really made any mistakes so far but he just hasn’t had the same spark that we saw from him last year over hurdles. He just looks to be lazy during his race which is a massive concern. The step up to three miles could help but he didn’t particularly look like a stayer over the trip in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle last year. Although he finished second, he was well beaten and benefitted from a final flight fall from Alpha Des Obeaux. If you looked at last year’s form, he would be more than good enough, but I think he is on the short side giving what we have seen so far.The remaining three runners are all entitled to their place in the field and not one of them could be classed as a no-hoper. Ballyalton was second to Faugheen in the Neptune back in 2014 and has returned this season in ok form. He was in the midst of mounting his challenge on debut at Warwick until unseating three out and finished a decent second at Market Rasen last time out. He has also been a chaser in the making and the step up in trip should certainly aid him given he is a winning Irish pointer. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to hit the heights of a couple of years ago though.
Le Mercurey looked to be going the right way as a chaser when landing back-to-back victories in the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase, albeit benefitting from a final fence fall from likely winner Amore Alato. However, he has gone off the boil somewhat and was never involved when well-fancied in the Sky Bet Chase last time out. A distinct leap of faith would be required with Minella Rocco whose jumping has left a lot to be desired in his three runs over fences so far. He entered this campaign as one of the leading lights in the novice chasing division but apart from an ok run at Haydock on his chasing debut, he has been very disappointing.
Advice
DRUMACOO – 1pt win @ 9/4 (Betfair)
2.05 Haydock – Betfred ‘Home Of Goals Galore’ Hurdle (Grade 2)This year’s renewal of the Rendlesham could once again turn into a bit of a slog, with heavy ground conditions likely, so you’ll need one with plenty of form on that kind of surface.
Reve De Sivola certainly fits the bill and is rightly favourite given his form, however, he does have to carry 8lb more than every other horse in the race and the record of favourites in the last 10 years is poor, only two have won and at 5/4 and 10/11. Reve De Sivola won’t be that short come the off and he looks vulnerable despite his clear class over hurdles in this type of ground.
Almost at the complete opposite of the scale is Warren Greatrex’s One Track Mind who is at the start of what could well be a very good staying career. He’s been well supported in the market, despite only beating San Benedeto by one and a half lengths last time out and that form, on the face of it, won’t be good enough here.
However, Greatrex rates this horse very highly and you can’t rule out improvement, even though he might want some better ground than this.But this race seems to be a great opportunity to look towards a couple of ‘reclamation jobs’ – At Fishers Cross, who put in a poor effort here last year, hasn’t won since his novice hurdling days, but has plenty of high-class form to his name. The weight allowance could well make a big difference and as he’s always showed his best form this side of Christmas, he could have one of his best opportunities to date to break that duck. His run last time in the Galmoy Hurdle was promising, even though he was well-beaten by Alpha Des Obeaux, and you’d expect him to come on for that.
However, another horse who could be having a ‘second-wind’ in their career is DEPUTY DAN, who returned to hurdles this season after some disappointing experiences chasing and finished third behind Thistlecrack and Reve De Sivola at Ascot in the Long Walk Hurdle last time out. He was about 12 lengths back that day on ground that would have been quick enough, so with the horrid conditions that we’re likely to get and the weight allowance, I can see that gap disappearing. Oliver Sherwood has always thought he was a very talented animal and given these perfect ground conditions and trip just short of the full three miles, the eight-year-old can get his head back in front for the first time since November 2014.
Advice
DEPUTY DAN – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, Betfair)
2.25 Ascot – The Appletiser 50 Year Celebration Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race)Slightly disappointing turnout really but still a tricky little contest to unravel. Spookydooky immediately appealed on the back of his decent effort in bottomless ground when second in the Tommy Whittle last time out. Prior to that, he prevailed in a battling finish at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting and certainly seems to be on the upgrade over fences. He is still relatively inexperienced over the larger obstacles having only had three starts and the suspicion is that he may get found out by one or two of these today. His mark of 142 doesn’t leave a great deal of room for manoeuvre but he does look like a chaser on the upgrade can could well find the required improvement to play a leading role.
Waldorf Salad is an interesting case at the foot of the weights, sneaking in off 10st 6lb. The eight-year-old looked standard fair until improving markedly this season, landing a pair of novice handicap chases at Towcester and Taunton before running a blinding race to finish second on Cheltenham Trials Day last month. Another 5lb rise for that means he has gone up 20lb in total this campaign but Venetia Williams is most adept at finding the right landing spots for her staying chasers and this five-runner affair is an easier opportunity than most to land a sizable prize. He does face a different class of horse here today though and I can see him coming up a bit short.
Until fluffing the landing three out last time, Vieux Lion Rouge had been almost faultless over fences and his completed record reads 3-3. He was a good bumper horse and a better hurdler but always seemed to get found out when he tackled a better class of opposition. Chasing seems to be a completely different game for him though and he was still going ok when unshipping Tom Scudamore at Cheltenham. If he reproduces that effort, he is sure to be there or thereabouts.
However, preference is for SAUSALITO SUNRISE who could just prove to be a class above the rest of the field. The eight-year-old was in the midst of running a cracker when falling behind Coneygree in the 2014 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase and that put paid to the rest of his season. I fancied him on his return at Chepstow but it seems as though he needed that run to blow away he cobwebs as he ran no sort of race despite being heavily backed on the day. He bounced back with aplomb though at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting, landing the Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase with a fine staying performance. He was well beaten at Newbury last time out by 2014 RSA Chase winner O’Faolains Boy but that was a particularly messy race with only two finishers and a line can be struck through that run. In truth, a 6lb rise for his Cheltenham win doesn’t seem to be too harsh and he can regain the winning thread here despite carrying top weight.
Advice
SAUSALITO SUNRISE – 1pt win @ 9/4 (General)
2.40 Haydock – Betfred Grand National Trial (Grade 3)Looking ahead to this weekend and as only Silver By Nature and Rigadin De Beauchene won this race having finished outside the first three on his most recent start, it seems best to side with runners arriving here in form. This spells trouble for the trio of Broadway Buffalo, Gas Line Boy and Rigadin De Beauchene who all arrive here having finished outside the placings last time. It therefore seems imperative to side with a horse heading the right way rather than one looking to bounce back to form.
This level at which previous performances have come is also vitally important with seven of the last ten winners having recorded a victory in Class 2 company or higher prior to contesting this Grade 3 event. Bishops Road, Gas Line Boy, Harry The Viking and Minella On Line all fail to make the cut in this year’s field and will be looking to emulate Well Refreshed, Giles Cross and Silver By Nature who all bucked this trend when winning their respective renewals.
In terms of official ratings, the benchmark for this contest looks to be set at 135 with six of the ten most recent winners having achieved this mark or higher before coming here. This is perhaps surprising given the extra weight these horses had to carry in conditions which are often on the testing side. This narrows the field to five with only the bottom three as they appear in the racecard missing out.
Having briefly alluded to the stamina-sapping conditions that participants often encounter, it is essential that potential winners of the race have the necessary stamina. This is supported by the fact that all of the last ten winners had all recorded previous victories over three miles or further. Therefore it may be best to steer clear of both Broadway Buffalo and Minella On Line as they both have question marks over their stamina.
It could be said that the attribute which is taken for granted most often in National Hunt racing is the ability of a horse to jump the obstacles in front of it, which is especially important over longer distances where horses can get very tired and lose concentration. This can be quantified by noting that of the last ten winners; seven of them had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers. The ones to come unstuck here are Rigadin De Beauchene, Cloudy Too and Gas Line Boy although the first of them had the same blot against his name when winning two years ago so perhaps he can be forgiven for his past misdemeanours.
When considering age, in recent years there has been a shift towards younger runners with six of the last ten winners being aged eight or nine, this includes four of the last six horses to be successful. There are only two runners from the desired bracket this time around, the pair of eight-year-olds Bishops Road and Broadway Buffalo.
Another factor worthy of mention is that all of the last ten winners had run within the last sixty days prior to winning here. Minella On Line only misses the cut by a few days having been off the track for 66 days but there would be more concern for Broadway Buffalo who will be returning from an absence of 105 days.The final factor to be considered is the one looking at the betting and it does not make good reading for favourite backers as only two of the last ten has obliged. Whilst the market is still open to change between now and Saturday afternoon, Kerry Lee’s Welsh Grand National winner Mountainous heads the market at 7/2 and therefore there would have to be question marks about his chances.
Shortlist
BISHOPS ROAD – 7/8
Cloudy Too – 6/8
Mountainous – 6/8
Conclusion
On the trends, the one that stands out is BISHOPS ROAD who won on his first start for the Kerry Lee team at Sandown last month. He misses just one of our trends having failed to win a Class 2 chase and sneaks in on the stamina stat due to his point-to-point success. The stable have been in fine form of late and this lightly-raced eight-year-old looks to have plenty of improvement still to come for his new connections. The booking of Richard Johnson suggests he is likely to be ridden positively and he could be tough to peg back. It looks quite a competitive affair despite the small field and he looks to have a big chance.
Sue Smith’s Cloudy Too was an impressive winner at Haydock last time when landing the Peter Marsh Chase and despite stepping up in trip, he looks likely to run well again this time around. He misses both the age trend and having been a bit careless as a youngster his jumping also saw him miss another trend. It will be tough for him to carry top weight in this ground but he arrives here in good form and looks likely to run well.
The final member of the shortlist is Mountainous who won the Welsh Grand National for the second time back in January. Like the trends pick Bishops Road, he too is trained by Kerry Lee who is forging quite a reputation in her first season with a license. We know he stays well and handles testing conditions but at the age of eleven he is above the desired bracket and he also has the burden of favouritism to carry.
Advice
BISHOPS ROAD – 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, BetVictor)
3.00 Ascot – Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Hurdle.The last time this race was won by anything carrying more than 11-2 was in 2007, and given that only two of the last nine winners carried more than 10-12, it should pay to look beyond those carrying too much weight. Different Gravey may well be the class animal in the race, but having to give almost a stone to nearly all of the field in soft ground means he needs to put up a monumental effort to win. The fact he’s been off since April adds to the doubts, but he’s clearly a high-quality horse so he has his chance.
Roadie Joe, with the impressive Lewis Gordon on board, would be interesting if it wasn’t for the ground. He looks to be more of a spring ground horse and any cut would seem to be against him – unfortunately, there will be plenty of it. He’s improving though, and if he progresses again, he could defy the doubts and put up a good show for Evan Williams. Another improver is Dan Skelton’s Debdebdeb who’s made a decent start over timber, winning two of her four races so far. With Bridget Andrews claiming five off the already low 10-3 that the mare has to carry, she has a chance with the battling qualities she showed last time out, but the form doesn’t look particularly strong and I’ll give her a miss this time.
Currently heading the market is Jonjo O’Neill’s Montdragon, who has won his last two starts in the style of an improving horse, especially at Haydock in December for which he’s gone up 7lb. He will have to step up again here, but with Jonjo’s string entering ‘Cheltenham mode’, you can be sure he’ll be firing and ready to go. Josh Moore rides again and the soft ground should suit but he’s an uninspiring bet at 7/2 in a competitive race.
FINGERTIPS hit the deck at the last at Sandown Park when chasing Akavit in a Juvenile Hurdle two weeks ago, but was in the process of running another decent race – he’s got some good French form and he was slick in beating Polarisation, also at Sandown Park. David Pipe’s four-year-old is let in leniently at the weights, carrying 10lb less than Pull The Cord who is on the same official rating and where that Philip Hobbs-trained rival looks to have fallen into the handicapper’s grip, you can’t say the same for David Pipe’s charge.
He could have a lot more to come, especially on his preferred soft ground and up in trip – being by Martaline, you’d think he’d want at least two and a half miles. A negative is the fact that no four-year-old has won this in the last 10 years, but this big field could help this highly-strung settle better and fulfil some of his undoubted potential. Pipe also won this last year with Unique De Cotte and it’s interesting he’s running in this rather than looking towards the Fred Winter at Cheltenham.
Paul Nicholls’ Sirabad makes the switch back from chasing and he’s certainly another interesting contender given the Nicholls team always had him down as an exciting one for the larger obstacles. His 11 length fourth to Thistlecrack doesn’t make bad reading and his novice hurdle win over Seven Nation Army was a decent effort too. He goes well on soft ground and could be on a decent mark, but this doesn’t seem to have been the plan for this horse and it could be best to keep a watching brief.Advice
FINGERTIPS – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (SkyBet)
3.15 Haydock – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier)As you would expect for one of the last qualifiers for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, it has attracted a competitive field and the weights are headed by Nicky Richards’ Top Billing. The seven-year-old was rapidly progressive in 2014 and returned from a year off to win by a wide margin at Bangor in November. The subsequent 12lb rise gave him a tough task at Doncaster last time but he found only Zeroeshadesofgrey too good on the day. He has gone up another 4lb for that effort but he is clearly a horse on the up and despite conceding weight all around, it is hard to see him finishing outside of the frame.
A similarly progressive performer is Neil King’s The Boss’s Dream who is up to a career-high mark of 139 having won three of his first four starts this term. His latest effort saw him show a fine attitude to hold off his rivals at Warwick and win with a couple of lengths to spare. An extra 9lb could prove difficult to overcome here but he is clearly in fine form and it is difficult to dismiss him.
Jonjo O’Neill has taken this contest a couple of times in recent years and saddles Box Office in his bid to land a third success. The five-year-old has been well-backed in several handicap hurdles in recent times but his latest effort at Sandown in December suggests that this sort of stamina test was likely to bring out further improvement from him. In truth he doesn’t look too well handicapped when you consider that he has yet to win in Britain but Barry Geraghty prefers him to stablemate Mountain Tunes so he would have to be the pick of the pair.
However, I am going to take a chance on one towards the bottom of the weights, in the shape of Gordon Elliott’s WOODFORD ISLAND. The five-year-old was third in a similar contest at Leopardstown in December before winning at Navan last month. Despite his short odds he looked a bit awkward that day although his trainer was keen to stress afterwards that they got the tactics wrong and he would be more patiently ridden last time. He currently sits on a mark of 126 which wouldn’t get him into the final so you would have to think he would need to win well here to have a chance of getting in. It is also interesting that Richard Johnson has been booked to ride him as the pair have a fine strike-rate when teaming up. The 10st 5lb weight is also towards the lower end of Johnson’s capabilities and in fact he has only got down to that once in the last month, when he won on Saddlers Encore at Sandown. He is one of the more lightly-raced members in the field and with him likely to relish the testing conditions, I fancy him to run a big race.
Advice
WOODFORD ISLAND – 2pts win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
3.35 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1)Only eight runners for this Grade 1 contest but there is plenty to discuss, beginning with the favourite Silviniaco Conti who drops back in trip following a below-par effort in the King George last time. The horse’s issues have been well documented but Paul Nicholls was of the belief that he had the ten-year-old in much better form for this assignment. Having worn cheekpieces for his last few outings, he wears blinkers here which could just help him dropping back in trip. The soft ground should make it more of a stamina test and that is likely to suit him but I have the nagging suspicion that he might just find it a bit sharp for him and therefore I think he is worth taking on at the head of the market.
Nicky Henderson won this race twice with Riverside Theatre and saddles two runners here in the shape of Triolo D’Alene and Ma Filleule. The former was an impressive winner on his return to action in January and now looks to have the Grand National in his sights later in the year. He seemed to show last time that he handles soft ground so can’t be ruled out here. His stablemate was second in the race last year but despite winning last time, she hasn’t quite been in the same form this term. She does tend to be better at this time of year but despite receiving 7lb from the rest of the field, I am happy to pass her by.
The one I’m going to side with is DYNASTE who may not have won since winning the Ryanair in 2014 but he has plenty of form subsequently to suggest he has a strong chance here. He has largely been campaigned over 3m in that time and whilst he probably does stay that far, I have no doubt that he is more effective over 2m5f. Something clearly wasn’t right with him in December when he ran in the Long Walk Hurdle here and as well as wearing the tongue-tie/blinkers combination for the first time, he has also had a wind operation since his last run. He is pretty versatile in terms of ground conditions and I fancy him to run a big race on his return. He has finished behind Silviniaco Conti on several occasions in the last couple of years but I feel he is better suited to this trip than the favourite and so he gets the nod.
Of the rest of the field, Royal Regatta is an interesting runner having won here in December but he was beaten in a handicap next time and I think he will find it tough in this sort of company. Flemenstar has plenty of back-class and has showed signs that he retains that ability this term, benefitting from the fall of Un De Sceaux to land the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. He could be the flyer in the market and could offer some value at around the 10/1 mark.
Advice
DYNASTE – 2pts win @ 7/2 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Coral)
4.10 Ascot – The Two Weeks Until Racing UK HD Handicap Hurdle Race.This looks like being one of the more competitive races of the weekend but WHAT A MOMENT stands out ahead of the rest. The six-year-old was purchased by David Pipe for £68,000 after he finished runner-up to Drumlee Sunset (now a 133-rated hurdler for Philip Hobbs) in an Irish point with Fagan, who subsequently racked up a six-timer (three points, two bumpers and a novice hurdle) and finished a narrow second to O O Seven in the Albert Bartlett Scottish Trial, two places further back in fourth.
He showed a good attitude when opening his account under rules in a Towcester bumper just over a year ago, out-battling Briery Queen, who finished second in a Listed mares’ bumper next time out, on the run-in. He disappointed somewhat under a penalty at Uttoxeter but he never settled that day and the race has proven to be stronger than first thought with the winner Definite Outcome finishing in the frame in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Warwick and the runner-up Coeur Blimey landing a Listed bumper at Ascot, and now finding himself to the fore of the market for the Champion Bumper. His hurdling form hasn’t particularly set the world alight but he has run into some classy sorts and on the evidence of his latest fourth (held-up out the back and stayed on despite never having a chance to get on terms), he should certainly appreciate the step up in trip he faces this afternoon. He looks to be on a fair mark for his handicap debut and the application of the first-time tongue strap and hood can only help him settle better into a race where conditions look to be right up his street.
Royale Knight is probably the biggest danger although it remains to be seen how he will run given the Grand National is his aim again this year (6th in 2015). On the bare form of his latest second at Plumpton, he would be entitled to have a decent chance and the 10lb Charlie Hammond takes off his back can only help in a race where only 7lb separates the top twelve in the field.
Captainofindustry is another that could play his part if bouncing back from his below-par effort at Chepstow on Welsh National day. The boggy conditions mean you can pretty much put a line through that race and the fact he has been dropped 1lb by the assessor can only help. He remains with potential and three miles is certainly his trip so is entitled to show his true running this time round.
Advice
WHAT A MOMENT – 2pts win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
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Faugheeen is OUT of the Champion Hurdle after picking up an injury!!
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A friend of mine sent me this report that he attended
I attended an enjoyable Cheltenham night in Sir Rowlands a great racing pub in Thomastown Co. Tipperary. The Panel was Kevin Blake ATR, Nina Carberry, Danny Mullins and Hayley O' Connor of Ladbrokes:
Supreme Novice: They all liked Min and Hayley said he was a huge loser in their books. Nina made a good case for Supasundae each way as dd Kevin Blake.
Arkle: They all like Douvan again but Kevin Blake advised Sizing John each way.Champion Hurdle: Faugheen all the way but Kevin Blake felt Identity Thief each way would be more lucrative each way than the Fav.
Mares Hurdle: They all went for Annie Power but Hayley felt AP should be odds against having been off for a year. She taught Vroom Vroom Mag might be value at 5's if Anything happened AP and she ran in the Stayers though they all felt AP would run and come home 10 lengths clear.
Neptune: Yanworth again was the general concensus with Long Dog given each way by Kevin Blake.
Sun Alliance Chase: Nina was very sweet on More Of That and felt No More Heroes might be vulnerable, See You At Midnight also got a mention.
Champion Chase: Again Un De Sceaux. Danny felt Felix Younger would be better on good ground and Kevin Blake made a good case for Sizing Granite at huge odds each way.
Champion Bumper: Nina was vert sweet on Augusta Kate who would be receiving seven pounds and Hayley said to watch out for a Jessica Harrington horse called New To This Town who was virtaully ignored as its two wins were on hoc deep ground.
Ryanair: Nina felt Noel Meade's hands were tied here as Road To Riches might be going here though Meade had his heart set on the Gold Cup. There was a concencus that Vroom Vroom Mag might run and win here.
World Hurdle: Again Thistlecrack was a popular choice but Alpha De Obeaux was given by Kevin Blake as good each way value.
Albert Bartlett: Nina taught Barters Hill was one of the bets of the meeting but Shantou Village was given by Kevin and Hayley as a live chance.
Triumph Hurdle: Ivanovich Gorbatov it was suggested wanted better ground but Kevin Blake went for Fixe Le Kap.
Gold Cup: Kevin Blake said Don Poli was the bet of the Meeting. he said the horse lights up when he gets there and would out stay the field up the hill. It was felt Vautour and Cue Card wouldn't stay and that Don Cossack might prefer flatter tracks. Valseur Lido was given by Blake as good each way value. Nina felt Road to Riches would be better on good ground. Djakadam got a negative after falling at the course twice.
Foxhunters: Nina was sweet on On The Fringe. She felt he needed the run in Leopardstown badly and go tired in the ground.
All in all enjoyable fun and Kevin Blake would be an addition to any panel in Ireland or England. Nina felt Carlingford Lough might be a good bet for Aintree when I asked her at the interval.
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3.10 Exeter – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier)
Harry Fry’s Unowhatimeanharry has been rapidly progressive this term winning his first three starts since joining the yard at the beginning of the season. Following two handicap successes, the eight-year-old justified favouritism in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham in December and it would seem foolish to rule him out of going in again. He is now 15lb higher than he was at the start of the season but the way in which he has performed in handicap company suggests that may not be enough to stop him. You would have to have a slight question mark over the heavy ground he is likely to encounter here and at the likely prices, it might be best to look elsewhere.
Paul Nicholls has always had high hopes for The Eaglehaslanded and whilst he has yet to show his full potential, there have been signs in his last couple of runs that he is starting to get the hang of things. He won over course and distance back in October when showing a few signs of temperament before finishing a close second to another progressive horse at Chepstow. He stayed on well to finish fourth at Cheltenham in December and looks to have a good chance off the same mark. He may well need a stiffer test than this as he is a strong stayer but he is likely to be doing his best work late on and can make the frame.
Two runners who catch the eye are Alan King’s The Tourard Man and Salmanazar with the last named of most interest having won impressively in similar conditions at Market Rasen last month. He seemed to relish every yard of the 2m4f that day so the extra couple of furlongs should suit and he has plenty of form on heavy ground. The Alan King stable continue to fire in the winners left, right and centre and this eight-year-old looks likely to be thereabouts at the business end here.
However there could be a handicap blot in this race in the shape of SCOOP THE POT who gets in at the foot of the weights here off a mark of 124. The six-year-old has only had three starts over hurdles to date but he ran a fine race in the handicap won by Unowhatimeanharry at Cheltenham in November. He finished an eye-catching third that day and has not been seen since, presumably in a bid to keep his mark as it is. He gets a massive pull in the weights this time around with Harry Fry’s horse and when you consider he was only beaten just over five lengths, it doesn’t take too much imagination to see him running well. We saw the JP McManus silks carried to victory in one of these qualifiers last weekend and I fancy we will see those famous silks carried back into the Winners’ Enclosure for a second week running.
Advice
SCOOP THE POT – 2pts win
3.40 Exeter – The Bathwick Tyres Veterans’ Handicap ChaseSince the inauguration of the Veterans’ Chase Series, these races have become more competitive and made them much better betting races to boot.
Venetia Williams is renowned for her work with the older generation and she has a double-pronged attack on the opening leg of the 2016 series. Shangani looks the pick of her duo on jockey bookings with Aidan Coleman in the plate but he would need a bounce back to form to feature here. He opened this campaign with a pleasing effort in defeat at Taunton but has since disappointed rather, failing to finish twice when well behind and tailing off when fifth of seven at Kempton back in January. The handicapper has eventually relented though and dropped him 3lb which will help but three miles in heavy ground may stretch his stamina given he has never won over that far in the past. Her other runner Howard’s Legacy is an interesting contender now only 1lb higher than his last winning mark. He will surely strip fitter for his seasonal reappearance at Ludlow in December and will be well suited to the heavy ground that faces him here.
Golden Chieftain arrives in arguably the best form on the back of his Somerset National win last time out. Colin Tizzard’s stayer had endured a prolonged spell in the doldrums since landing the Festival Chase at Cheltenham in March 2013 but was back to somewhere near his best when landing the Southern National first time up. He stays well and handles testing conditions so should be in his element here but it remains to be seen whether he can defy a 7lb rise in the handicap at this stage of his career. Connections believe he could be a player in the Cheltenham race again this year so he must be a leading contender in this.
However, preference is for another Festival scorer and MIDNIGHT PRAYER is a strong fancy following his fine second in the Classic Chase at Warwick last month. The Alan King inmate landed the National Hunt Chase a couple of years ago and has returned this season in good heart. He ran a perfectly adequate race in a strong Newbury handicap on his return from a year off the track and backed that up with an improved effort in extremely testing conditions when runner-up behind Russe Blanc at Warwick. The Cheltenham Festival has been all but ruled out with the Grand National his main aim this campaign. With the weights for the Aintree marathon being announced on Thursday, it is more than likely that he would need to win this in order to bolster his chances of gaining a place in the big one in April. A 4lb rise for his latest run looks perfectly acceptable and the fact that Champion Jockey-elect Richard Johnson is steering can only be a plus.
Advice
MIDNIGHT PRAYER – 2pts win
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Thursday, 25th February 2016, Keadeen Hotel
Venue: Keadeen Hotel, Newbridge, Co. Kildare
Panel: Oli Bell (MC), Ruby Walsh, AP McCoy & Rob Catterson (Paddy Power).
Friday, 26th February 2016, Exeter Racecourse
Venue: Denman Suite, Exeter racecourse
Price: £10 (can be linked to racecourse Premier admission for £22.40 – Devon National day)
Start time: 6.30 for 7pm
Panel: Paul Nicholls, Phillip Hobbs, David Pipe, Nick Schofield.
Tuesday 1st March 2016 – Tattersalls
Venue: Tattersalls
Price: £30 including light supper
Start time: TBC
Host: William Haggas
Panel: Oli Bell, Steve Mellish, Anthony Bromley, John Ferguson
Book: [email protected]
Thursday, 3rd March 2016 – London
Venue: Walkabout, Temple, London
Price: £5, includes £10 free bet
Start time: 7pm sharp (doors open at 5pm)
Host: Matt Chapman
Panel: Rich Ricci, Sam Twiston-Davies, Paul Kealy, Noel Hayes, Joe Chambers
Friday, 4th March 2016, Kildare House Hotel
Venue: Kildare House Hotel
Panel: MC Kevin O’Ryan and Gary O’Brien from Attheraces, Sandra Hughes (Trainer), Jonathan Burke (Jockey), Joseph O’Brien (Jockey) and Pat Brennan (Tote Ireland).
Price: €10
Book: 045491830 (Tote Ireland) or 045520002 (Kildare House Hotel)
Monday 7th March 2016 – Weatherbys
Venue: Weatherbys Conference Centre, Wellignborough, Northants NN8 4BX
Price: £12.50pp includes supper and drinks
Start time: 7.30pm
Panel: Lydia Hislop, David Minton, John Ivan-Duke, Lucy Wadham, Matt Tombs, Will Kenndy, Ian Williams, Colin Brown
Book: bettrendsshop.co.uk (only eight tickets remaining)
Tuesday 8th March 2016 – Manchester
Venue: St Kents Irish Social Club, Manchester
Price: £10 including Irish Stew and raffle
Start time: 7pm
Host: David Yates
Panel: Jamie Lynch, Martin Dixon, David Barber and 2 TBC
Book: [email protected]
Tuesday 8th March 2016 – Wetherby Racecourse
Venue: Bramham Hall, Wetherby Racecourse, York Road, Wetherby, West Yorkshire, LS22 5EJ
Price: £12 inc sausage and mash supper and Star Sports Cheltenham booklet
Start time: 6.30pm
Panel: Jim McGrath, Trevor Harris, Niall Hannity, Darren Owen, Sean Quinn
Book: wetherbyracing.co.uk
Tuesday 8th March 2016 – Newcastle Racecourse
Venue: Newcastle Racecourse, High Gosforth Park, Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE3 5HP
Price: £10 (£5 for Newcastle annual Members) inc sausage and mash supper
Start time: 6.30pm
Host: TBC
Panel: TBC
Book: newcastle-racecourse.co.uk
Wednesday 9th March 2016, Middleton Cheney
Venue: Middleton Cheney Sports Club, Astrop Road, Middleton Cheney, nr Banbury, Oxfordshire, OX17 2PG
Price: £10pp
Start time: 7pm for a 7.45 start
Host:
Panel: Richard Hoiles, Charlie Longsdon, Lawney Hill, Andrew Mount, Jen Prest (William Hill)
Book: 07900 692154 or [email protected]
Wednesday 9th March 2016 – Kings Head Hotel, Cirencester
Venue: Kings Head Hotel, 24 Market Place, Cirencester, GL7 2NR
Price: £15
Start time: 7pm
Host: Tom Clarkson
Panel: Nico De Boinville, Luke Tarr, Christian Williams, Tom Symonds
Book: 01285 700900
Wednesday 9th March 2016, Sway Bar, Central London
Venue: Sway Bar, 61-65 Great Queen Street, London WC2B 5BZ
Price: £20 (plus £2.29 booking fee). Option to buy raffle tickets to be pre-purchased.
Start time: 7pm
Host: Rishi Persad
Panel: Tony Calvin, Lydia Hislop, Geoff Banks and surprise guest.
Wednesday 9th March 2016 – Leeds Town Hall
Venue: Leeds Town Hall, City Centre Leeds, West Yorkshire, LS1 3AD
Price: £10 inc pie and peas and £5 free bet with Sky Bet
Start time: 7.30
Host: Ed Chamberlain
Panel: Alex Hammond, Donn McClean, Dave Ord, Niall Hannity, Mark Howard, Denis O’Regan, Warren Greatrex
Book: For a table of 10 on the evening, email: [email protected]
Thursday 10th March 2016 – Sydney Arms, London
Venue: Sydney Arms, 70 Sydney Street, London SW3 6NJ
Price: £15 for table seat, £10 standing
Start time: 6.45pm
Host: Emma Spencer
Panel: Tom Segal, Nicky Henderson, Barry Geraghty, Oliver Sherwood, John McCririck
Book: Call 07574 442333
Thursday 10th March 2016 – Doncaster Racecourse
Venue: Doncaster Racecourse
Price: £10pp including pie and peas
Start time: 7.30pm
Sponsored by: Sky Bet
Host: Michael Shinners
Panel: Dave Ord (Sportling Life), Tom O’Ryan (Racing UK), Martin Dixon (Racing UK and Timeform) and Andrew Thornton
Book: doncaster-racecourse.co.uk
Thursday 10th March 2016 – Kensington Forum
Venue: Holiday Inn, Kensignton Forum, near Gloucester Road tube station
Price: £8 members, £15 non-members
Start time: 7pm
Sponsored by: Star Sports
Panel: Lydia Hislop, Phil Smith, Lee Mottershead
Book: call Kate Austin on 07711 260973
Thursday 10th March 2016 – West Berkshire Racing Club
Venue: Long Room, Berkshire Stand, Newbury Racecourse.
Price: Members £3, Non-members £5
Start time: 8pm
Panel: Lee McKenzie (Chair), David Bass, Brendan Powell Jr, Oliver Wardle (Alan King’s assistant), David Williams (Ladbrokes)
Book: westberksracingclub.org.uk
Friday 11th March 2016 – East Garson
Venue: East Garson Village Hall
Price: £10 (includes one drink)
Start Time: Bar opens 7pm, starts 7.30pm
Host: Ed James
Panel: John Francome, Oliver Sherwood, Noel Fehily, Colin Brown, Stan Moore, Pat Murphy and Jamie Snowden
Book: via Sporting Agenda or Ed James directly [email protected] or 01488 649770
Friday 11th March 2016 – Almalda Suite, Hamilton
Venue: Hamilton Council Buildings
Price: £13 (in advance) £15 (on the day)
Start time: 6.30pm for 7.15pm
Host: Gordon Brown
Panel:Mark Howard, Fergal O’Brien, Ian Robinson, Trevor Harris. On the phone: Gordon Elliott, Paddy Brennan, Sam Twiston-Davies
Book: [email protected] or 07877 618120
Sunday 13th March 2016 – The Fleece Inn, Bretforton, Worcestershire
Venue: The Fleece Inn, Bretforton, Worcestershire
In aid of a local charity and the Injured Jockeys Fund
Start time: 7pm
Panel: Phil Smith, Sam Twiston-Davies, Dan Skelton, Richard Phillips and bookmaker Andy Smith
Price: £12
Book via www.thefleeceinn.co.uk
Monday 14th March 2016 – Hollow Bottom, Guilting Power
Venue: The Hollow Bottom Pub, Guilting Power, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, GL54 5UX
Price: £20 (share platter included)
Start time: 7pm
Host: Alex Steedman
Panel: Sam Twiston-Davies, Ryan Hatch, Gary Wiltshire, Carl Llewellyn
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Hope no one minds but thought it might be a good idea to open a general chat thread where we could put up anything within reason regarding the festival,like stats trends,whispers ect:
I was sent an email containing a pdf for cheltenham,In the email it states that its 100% free to share with others,The link is below
- arsenalfh, Crinu, Jimmy2shoes and 1 other
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Traffic Fluide will miss the race having suffered a setback in preparation for this weekend’s Game Spirit Chase at Newbury.
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Jeremy Kyle set to become the face of horse racing on ITV
JEREMY Kyle is set to be the face of ITV horse racing when it switches from Channel 4 at the end of the year.
An ITV insider said: “Jeremy is a fantastic presenter and has a great knowledge of racing due to his love of the sport.
“He can add that all-important star quality to the ITV racing product but, as a presenter, he knows that telling the story is all important.
“He is already on first-name terms with many racehorse trainers and owners and could seamlessly make the transition to hosting what will be a popular new programme.
“His sense of humour will also lighten the mood as we all believe that racing coverage needs to be fun, just like a day at the races for punters is all about having a joyous day out.
It was announced recently
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12.35 Chepstow – The Download The Coral Mobile App Novices’ Hurdle.
With the ground at Chepstow likely to provide a stern stamina test, this will be a tricky race for novices’ just starting out in their careers.Millanisi Boy has more experience than most and has shown improved form this campaign. He finished a decent third on his handicap debut at the beginning of November before producing his best effort to date when chasing home subsequent Grade 2 scorer Unowhatimeanharry in a hot novices’ handicap at Newbury’s Hennessy Meeting. He is entitled to have a good chance but his record of 0-10 isn’t the most inspiring in truth.
It could well turn out to be a real slog which may not benefit Maxanisi as he shoulders top weight. The six-year-old is unbeaten in two starts and has shown a good attitude on both occasions. Firstly when just getting up to land a heavy ground Ffos Las bumper before scoring on his debut over the sticks with another finely timed run to nab the lead (from a next time out winner) in the shadow of the post. He has shown that he handles a testing surface which is a big plus but he is now stepping up in trip and it will be difficult to carry a penalty to victory.
Another that has been penalised for a recent success is Never Equalled, although Jordan Williams’ 7lb claim negates this. He has been well regarded by connections since joining them from the Irish pointing field; where he finished second on his only run. He had a fairly inauspicious start under rules, finishing well beaten in fourth at Ffos Las in early November. He produced a much improved performance when runner-up on his next start before opening his account last time out, battling back after making a mistake at the final flight. He should appreciate the step up in trip and handles heavy ground well so is entitled to be on the premises.
However, preference is for MINELLA DADDY who also showed decent form in points over in Ireland. He had a good spin on his rules debut in a Warwick bumper, finishing third , and that will undoubtedly have blown away a few of the cobwebs on his first run for nearly nine months. He was outpaced when the race started to hot up that day, which is not surprising given he has shown he stays three miles and that will undoubtedly leave him in very good stead here, stepping up in trip in stamina-sapping conditions.
Ballybane has winning form in an Irish point and would rate the biggest danger if reproducing the form he showed when third to a subsequent dual-scorer in a Stratford bumper last March. His hurdles debut did leave a lot to be desired as he was well adrift in fourth but he should appreciate the conditions here and may be freshened up off the back of his break since early October. He looks like a chaser in the making and is slightly difficult to weigh up distance-wise given his two runs under rules but he cannot be taken lightly hailing from a Rebecca Curtis stable that has been back amongst the winners recently.
AdviceMINELLA DADDY – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (William Hill)
1.10 Chepstow – The Coral Proud Supporters Of British Racing Handicap Hurdle.
Gevrey Chambertin is a fascinating contender and it may speak volumes that he has been targeted here rather one of his other numerous options this weekend. He has proven to be a frustrating campaigner for connections and punters alike in recent seasons, flattering to deceive in a couple of seasons over fences and not looking like the force of old returned to the smaller obstacles this season. He did produce a much improved effort last time out when cantering home at Lingfield off a much reduced mark which can only be a positive. That was a particularly weak contest and he does have a 9lb hike in the weights to contend with here but David Noonan does take a valuable 5lb off his back which eases the burden somewhat. There is little doubt that he has the ability to take this but a leap of faith would be required given his overall profile.The percentage play is SYKES who has been in fine fettle this season and remains a lightly-raced seven-year-old with his best years still ahead of him. He landed a quick-fire early-season double when dead-heating at Aintree and following up over course and distance in a hot handicap hurdle in November. He ran into a handicap blot at Newbury’s Hennessy Meeting but still ran with credit to finish third, albeit beaten a fair way. He races here off the same mark but does have crack conditional Ciaran Gethings taking 5lb off which will make his life much easier in boggy conditions. He is an unexposed type who looks likely to carry on improving and is the one to beat.
Of the remainder, Moorlands Mist looks the biggest danger given his only two wins have both came over course and distance. However, it is over two years since the last of those and he is now 6lb above his last winning mark having finished a decent second (again over course and distance) last time out. It will be interesting to see how Kayf Moss goes back over the sticks following an unsuccessful spell chasing. He finished second off this mark in the Welsh Champion Hurdle a year ago so has the talent for a contest like this but his best form has been over shorter.
Advice
SYKES – 1pt win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, William Hill)
1.45 Chepstow – Coral Welsh Grand National.
There are several strong trends that should initially be taken into account before coming to a conclusion. The first of these centres around age and with all of the last ten winners having been aged between six and eight, it is best to steer clear of runners outside of this bracket. There are only four horses within the desired group in this year’s field, the eight-year-olds Upswing and Chase The Spud and the pair of seven-year-olds Cogry and Red Devil Lads.Another absolutely vital ingredient that all Welsh National winners need is stamina. The three miles, five and a half furlongs contest is often run on testing ground and it is a real stamina-sapping test for the horses. Therefore it is no surprise to learn that all of the last ten winners had won over 3m or further prior to coming here. This time around, only Philip Hobbs’ Bertie Boru has his stamina to prove having won over 2m6½f in the past, whilst Evan Williams’ Allez Vic does have a win over 3m to his name but that was over hurdles.
In the last paragraph I alluded as to how difficult a test this was and down the years fresher horses have dealt with conditions best. To quantify that idea, we can see that nine of the last ten winners of the race had run no more than twice during the current season. Only four horses miss the cut on this basis, Upswing, Portrait King, Mountainous and Allez Vic so it may be best to steer clear of this quartet.Recent form can often give an indication of the fitness of a horse and on the whole you need to be looking for an in-form animal here. All but one of the last ten winners had finished in the first four on their most recent visit to the racecourse so this is not a race in which you should be hoping for a horse bouncing back. There are eight who fail to make the grade on this count and I would suggest it is best to look elsewhere.
In terms of weight, the optimum limit appears to be 11st as only two horses have carried more than that to victory in the last decade. When applying that to this year’s field that eliminates a quintet of horses, Black Thunder, Shotgun Paddy, Masters Hill, Benvolio and Emperor’s Choice.
Closely linked to weight is the official rating of each runner and looking at recent winners, the desired bracket appears to be from 130 up to 142. This includes seven of the last ten winners and excludes the top three and bottom four as they appear on the racecard from this year’s renewal.
Given the undulations that runners have to encounter when racing at Chepstow, it will hardly come as a shock that horses with course form have done well over the years. In fact six of the last ten winners had recorded a course success prior to winning here. Looking at the line-up for tomorrow, there are a host of Chepstow winners including Mountainous and Emperor’s Choice who already have their name on the Welsh National roll of honour.
The final factor to take into consideration is the betting and it is fair to say that this is a race in which we should be taking on the market leaders. Silver Birch remains the last winning favourite in 2004 and with the three of the last four winners all having returned at double figure SPs it is worth looking for one at a price.
Shortlist
BOB FORD – 7/8
Cogry – 7/8
Red Devil Lads – 7/8
Tour Des Champs – 7/8
Conclusion
It is tight at the top of the trends tree for this race and with no horse having matched all of our trends, we have four horses who fail on just one trend each.Nigel Twiston- Davies’ Cogry looks to have a good chance of running well, having finished a good fourth at Cheltenham on his reappearance in November. He won over three miles at Chepstow last Christmas and subsequently went on to win over 3m2f at Warwick before running in the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival so stamina shouldn’t be a concern. The major obstacle that he has to overcome is the poor record of favourites in the race as he currently heads the market at around 7/1 with Jonjo O’Neill’s Upswing. He was still going well in the Scottish National last Spring when falling and as long as the burden of favouritism doesn’t weight too heavy, he looks set to be involved at the business end of proceedings.
However I slightly prefer the claims of Rebecca Curtis’ BOB FORD who should relish the attritional underfoot conditions on Saturday afternoon. He won the West Wales National in heavy ground at Ffos Las last January and having bounced back to form at the same venue last time, he looks sure to go well. His Welsh trainer is keen to get her name on the roll of honour for this race and he looks the pick of her two runners. He is nine so sits outside the desired age bracket but it is his form in deep ground which appeals most to me and he gets the nod over the rest of the shortlisted horses.
His stablemate Red Devil Lads also makes the shortlist having continued to improve throughout last Spring, winning three times including twice on heavy ground. He was second to a smart rival in Katkeau on his return to action in December and looks open to further improvement having raced just seven times over the larger obstacles. This will be his first visit to Chepstow so we don’t know if he will handle the track but if he does, he looks likely to play a big part in the outcome.
The final member of the shortlist is Tour Des Champs who won the Welsh Grand National Trial when we last saw him in December. Prior to that, the nine-year-old had been off the track for over eighteen months but he seemed to be as good as ever last time so warrants plenty of respect here. He has snuck in towards the foot of the weights on 10st 4lb and Jamie Bargary also takes a useful 5lb off his back. He saw the trip out really well in the Trial and is likely to be running on again here.
Advice
BOB FORD – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power)
2.20 Chepstow – coral.co.uk Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
Paul Nicholls’ Adrien Du Pont made his British debut at Chepstow in October where he was a close second behind Alan King’s Sceau Royal but was awarded the race in the Stewards’ room. However despite being fancied to confirm the Stewards’ ruling at Cheltenham he was picked off by his rival who looked to have quite a bit in hand on the day. The fitting of a tongue-tie suggests that connections may have the inkling of a breathing problem with this four-year-old and if very soft ground, it could be hard work for these young horses. He did win on this sort of surface on his only start in his native France but has latest run left him with something to prove and considering his likely short odds, I think it is worth looking elsewhere for a bet in the race.There aren’t many yards in better form that Philip Hobbs’ string at the moment and he saddles Jaboltiski here who is two from two over the smaller obstacles. A winner at Huntingdon in November, he followed up under a penalty at Exeter next time on heavy ground which bodes well for the conditions he is likely to face on Saturday. He did wander about between the last couple of obstacles which suggests that he was probably getting a little tired in the closing stages but he got the job done and has earned a crack at something like this.
There could be a Welsh-trained winner as Bernard Llewellyn has Borak and Nabhan in the line-up and the pair filled the first two places in a maiden hurdle at Ffos Las last month. The former was a ready winner on the day and having won on flat here in September, he looks the pick of the pair. The ground should be fine for the winner but his win came in a pretty weak contest and he will need to find a lot of improvement to challenge the market principals here.
Nick Williams has won this race twice in the last decade and Coo Star Sivola represents the yard this year. Despite being unfancied he finished a good second at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and gave the impression that he would benefit from the run. This race has clearly been on the agenda for a little while now and although he probably has quite a bit to find with some of his rivals, I fancy him to finish in the places.
However Alan King has his juveniles in good order and saddles the only filly in the field in the shape of FORGIVING GLANCE, who was second behind the smart Jer’s Girl at Aintree last time. The winner was subsequently short-headed in a Grade 1 in Ireland over Christmas so the form looks good but she was beaten ten lengths on the day. It is interesting that King has pitched her in here considering the options he would have had for the race and in receipt of a 7lb weight allowance, I think it is worth taking a chance on her to cause something of an upset.
Bettrends Advice
FORGIVING GLANCE – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Paddy Power)
2.35 Kempton Park – The William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle.
One of the strongest trends when it comes to this race is that horses with high official ratings tend to struggle. To put an exact number on it, eight of the last ten winners were rated no higher than 140, although it could be argued that it is nine as Saphir Du Rheu, who won the race two years ago off a mark of 145 had Harry Derham taking 5lb off his back. Either way this is a strong pattern which would be a concern for the five to miss the cut in this year’s field: Brother Tedd, Gevrey Chambertin, Un Ace, Dell’Arca, and Bivouac.Perhaps the reason for those higher rated horses struggling in recent years is that they carry higher weights than their lower rated rivals. This is backed up by the fact that eight of the last ten winners carried no more than 11st to victory. The top four as they appear on the racecard (Brother Tedd, Gevrey Chambertin, Un Ace and Dell’Arca) all fall at this hurdle so suffer a double blow to their chances.
Recent renewals have also suggested that horses with low mileage have tended to be the ones to follow. Some of these horses have been on the go since October or November and too many runs during the season can often prevent them from running to the best of their ability. A significant statistic with regards to this race is that all but two of the last ten winners had no more than three runs during the season prior to coming here. This time around only Gevrey Chambertin, Dell’Arca, and Westren Warrior fall foul of this stat.
In terms of age there is no doubt that six-year-olds have been the group to follow in recent years, having accounted for six of the last ten winners of the race. Surprisingly, only one runner falls into this category which boosts the chances of Yala Enki.In races as competitive as this one, we often find that horses in form tend to carry that forward. A first two finish last time out is something that seven of the last ten winners have had in common which bodes well for the quintet of Gevrey Chambertin, Un Ace, Bivouac, Ibis du Rheu and Westren Warrior who all arrive on the back of positive results.
The final factor to take into account is the betting and although favourites have a fair record (4/10), it is still best to focus on those towards the head of the market. In the last decade, only three winners have gone off at double-figure SPs so this is not a race in which to take a chance on a long shot. At the time of writing, Ibis du Rheu and Bivouac head the market at 4/1 with Westren Warrior, Yala Enki and Brother Tedd all available at single-figure prices.
Shortlist
IBIS DU RHEU – 5/6
Yala Enki – 5/6
Conclusion
When we put all our trends together there are two runners who come out with a near perfect profile. Yala Enki ticks most of the boxes and is the only horse in the field to fit the six-year-old trend. Venetia Williams’ French import opened this campaign with a dominant performance in an Exeter novice hurdle, defeating subsequent winner Duke Des Champs by sixteen lengths. He found the Grade 3 “Fixed Brush” Handicap Hurdle too hot at Haydock last time out, finishing a well beaten fifth, which is the only trend he falls foul of.However, the preferred member of our shortlist is IBIS DU RHEU who finished runner-up in eye-catching style at Newbury on his most recent start. He steps up in trip on the back of that effort and it would be no surprise to see this lightly-raced performer go close once again. He heads the shortlist by virtue of only narrowly missing the age trend as a five-year-old. He looks likely to sit towards the head of the market and will bid to emulate the success of his half-brother, Saphir Du Rheu, who landed this contest in 2014
Advice
IBIS DU RHEU – 1pt win @ 4/1 (General)
2.55 Chepstow – coral.co.uk Money Back If Your Horse Falls Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase.
Courtown Oscar is likely to be popular in the market having won four of his last five starts. His latest win over the bigger obstacles at Wetherby saw him win with eight lengths to spare in comfortable fashion and despite a further 14lb hike in the weights, he looks likely to go well again here. The heavy ground should be absolutely fine for this seven-year-old and as he sits towards the foot of the weights in this contest which could prove important in testing ground.Rebecca Curtis has her string in much better form than she did when Racing Pulse made his first two starts for the yard and if he can get back to the best of his hurdling form, he would have a say here. Johnny Burke has been booked to ride the seven-year-old and the combination of cut in the ground and the step up to 3m could see this former Irish point winner find significant improvement.
However, they could have their work cut out with SUBTLE GREY who made all to win at the second time of asking over fences in December. His trainer reported that he was in need of the run when beaten on his chasing debut and the return to 3m shouldn’t hold any fears for the seven-year-old. It was heavy ground when he won at Carlisle in December so there is reason to think he will handle conditions on Saturday and he has been raised just 2lb for that success. Barry Geraghty is an eye-catching jockey booking and I think this lightly-raced chaser is the one they have to beat.
Advice
SUBTLE GREY – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes)
3.10 Kempton Park – The William Hill – Bet On The Move Handicap Chase
Depending on the weather, the field here could be reduced to seven runners with Masters Hill and Chase The Spud both looking to run in the Welsh National if Chepstow gets the go ahead. Nevertheless, this still looks to be a competitive contest with a number of the field looking to bounce back after disappointing recent runs.Le Reve is one such animal as he ended last campaign with a fine third in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and looked a very nice stayer in the making. However, he never got involved at Ascot on his seasonal debut and was always behind at Cheltenham a fortnight later. He does return to calmer waters here but still has a lot on his plate under top weight.
Another with plenty to prove at present is Grandads Horse who has been well below form since landing the odds at Doncaster just over a year ago. He has been a consistent performer for some time but struggled with a 7lb rise on the back of his latest victory. He is back down to 2lb below his last winning mark now and could be primed for a resurgence back to form sooner rather than later. It would have been nice to have seen a bit more from him in the London National, though a mistake might have put paid to his chances there.
Shangani can be included in that bracket despite him showing a return to form when second on his seasonal debut at Taunton. Since then, he has failed to complete in two starts, unseating when weakening out of it at Newbury before slipping up when coming under pressure at Kempton. He is weighted to be competitive, with a handy 5lb taken off his back by Charlie Deutsch, and has a decent record at Kempton but his overall profile isn’t entirely convincing and he has never won over this far before.
Therefore, KRUZHLININ gets the vote on his seasonal debut and first start since joining Philip Hobbs. The nine-year-old was highly progressive a couple of years back and ran respectably when tenth in the 2014 Grand National. He has only had two starts since that effort, finishing seventh in the Becher Chase before putting in an improved performance over the sticks, finishing runner-up behind subsequent American Grand National winner Dawalan at Market Rasen. He arrives here off his last winning mark and, if ready to go first time up, is fancied to run a big race.
Advice
KRUZHLININ – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Coral, William Hill)
3.45 Kempton – William Hill – Home Of Betting Handicap Hurdle.Our final race of the day is a tricky handicap over two miles and the weights are headed by Stars Over The Sea who contested three Grade 1 contests last Spring, beaten just five lengths at Aintree in April. He has been dropped 6lb in the weights since the beginning of the campaign on the back of two below par efforts but the return to a flat right-handed track should suit him better than the last two venues he has graced. In truth I think he would prefer the ground to be a little quicker than it is here but he handles it and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back to form and hit the frame here.
There are a couple of hat-trick seekers in the field but the one that is of most interest is Graeme McPherson’s Hollywood All Star who made light work of his rivals for the second time in December. The seven-year-old looked to have plenty in hand last time and the handicapper responded accordingly by raising him another 10lb in the handicap. He is clearly on a steep upward curve and with ground conditions in his favour once again, he should run his race although he may one or two too good for him.
The one I am going to go with is James Bethell’s LAST SUPPER who ran well for a long way at Aintree last time but found the 2m4f trip stretching her stamina reserves. She was still in front between the final two hurdles in a race which has worked out well and there is every reason to think she can be competitive off her current mark down in trip. She races here off 1lb higher than her last winning mark and Joe Colliver takes a useful 3lb off her back. I fancy she can get into a nice rhythm out in front and she could be tough to pass so is worth taking a chance on in a wide open race.
AdviceLAST SUPPER – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes)
- Boulder5111 and BillyHills
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1.05 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Handicap Chase
The Open meeting gets underway with a competitive two miles handicap chase and having finished third in this race with Monetaire twelve months ago, the Pond House team look likely to saddle the market leader this time around in the shape of La Vaticane. A dual winner over fences in her native France, she lost nothing in defeat on her British bow when chasing home Theinval at Kempton in March, with the winner going on to land a Grade 3 at Aintree before the end of the season. Clearly having had only one run in Britain and having been off the track for 244 days, there is plenty to be taken on trust alone but the yard have forged a reputation for such coups in the past and she is respected on her British chasing debut. Having said that, she is currently the 7/2 market leader and I think that is short enough given the nagging concerns that I have mentioned.In terms of early season form, the run of Pearls Legend behind Cold March a couple of weeks ago looks pretty strong, having led for much of the way before being collared on the run to the final fence. The switch to a left-handed track should suit John Spearing’s eight-year-old as he had a slight tendency to edge to his left at Ascot last time. The fact that he has won twice at Sandown suggests that the undulations and stiff finish shouldn’t hold any fears for him and a reproduction of his reappearance run would see him right in the shake-up once again tomorrow.
Of the less-exposed members of the field, cases can be made for the likes of The Clock Leary and Minella Present who both have pieces of form which suggest that they can go well here. Both also represent yards in form which can be a significant factor especially at this time of year when some of the big yards are yet to get their horses into top gear.
However, it is Nicky Henderson’s LOUGH KENT who gets my vote having won so impressively on his chasing debut at Warwick in May. That was the first time he had got his head in front since moving from France although he had solid pieces of hurdling form behind the likes of Theinval and Gassin Golf. He was turned out two days later under a penalty but the combination of a recent run and the step up to 2m4f didn’t see him to best effect and he has been off the track since then. He wasn’t beaten that far and the return to two miles should be right up his street. The Seven Barrows stable is starting to fire the winners in with four in the last week and in a competitive heat, I think he is worth an each-way bet at around the 7/1 mark.
AdviceLOUGH KENT – 0.5pt e/w @ 7/1 (General)
1.40 Cheltenham – Steel Plate And Sections Novices´ Chase
In recent years this race has thrown up more than a few smart performers including the likes of Imperial Commander, Denman and Grands Crus and given the quality of the line-up for this year’s renewal, we might yet see another smart winner of the race.If we consider the betting market, then it all seems to centre around the chasing debutant More Of That who won the World Hurdle here in 2014 at the end of a campaign which saw him win five races consecutively. Sadly we only saw him once last season in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury where he was a shadow of his former self and having been niggled for much of the way could finish only third. A breathing problem was subsequently identified and has been operated on and the signs are that he has been pleasing his connections in the lead up to this race. The yard took this race with Taquin Du Seuil two years ago and whilst I expect him to run well, I wouldn’t be too keen on taking 7/4 about him especially given the depth of the opposition he faces.
One such runner is Paul Nicholls As De Mee who made a solid start over the larger obstacles when chasing home second season chaser Cocktails At Dawn at Chepstow in October. He was receiving 8lb from the winner that day but he was in the vanguard for much of the contest and stuck to his task well to hold on for second in the closing stages. He had some excellent form over hurdles last season winning the EBF Final at Sandown and has always been viewed as a chaser in the making.
Ian Williams’ Ballyalton finds himself coming here on something of a retrieval mission having unseated on his return to action at Warwick last week. The eight-year-old chased home Faugheen in the Neptune in 2014 but missed all of last season and until departing at Warwick, looked to be finding the tight two miles a little sharp for him. The step up to 2m4f will definitely suit him and ironically I felt his jumping was getting better as the round went on before getting rid of Will Kennedy at the third last. His trainer has reported him to be none the worse for his tumble and I fancy he will run well here although as I have mentioned the opposition is stiff.
The final one of the main protagonists that I wish to mention is Nicky Henderson’s Might Bite who having been beaten on his sole start in a bumper in January, won both of his first two starts over hurdles. The six-year-old is a close relative of the yard’s Beat That and the expectations are that he will make a fine chaser in time. It may surprise you to learn that Nicky Henderson had just eight novice chase wins to his name last season although he has a much stronger team of novice chasers to go to war with this year.
Overall, I am finding it hard to nail one horse down and in truth I think we will be looking back at this race at the end of the season and highlighting what strong form it produces. If I was pushed, at the prices I would have a small win bet on Ballyalton at 13/2 as I feel he will be better for that initial experience and the step up in trip.
AdviceBALLYALTON – 1pt win @ 13/2 (SkyBet)
2.15 Cheltenham – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Onto our third race and having gone the way of John Ferguson’s Parlour Games twelve months ago, the stable have another well-fancied runner in the shape of PENGLAI PAVILION. Like most of the yard’s horses he is a high-class recruit from the flat having finished fifth in the Arc behind Treve in 2013 and he has made an excellent start to his new career this season. A winner of his first two starts at Hexham and Stratford, he put aside any concerns about stepping up in trip when winning over course and distance in October in impressive fashion. He has lots of tactical speed as well as an ability to jump hurdles quickly and accurately and he looks likely to take high rank in the novice hurdling division this term. This looks a potentially tougher test than he has faced so far but despite conceding weight all around, he is still very much the one to beat.The remaining three contenders come in here on the back of last time out successes and the bottom two Shantou Village and Champers On Ice both come in here with lofty reputations. The former is an Irish point winner who has won his first two starts under rules including a nineteen length demolition of his rivals at Carlisle last time and his shrewd trainer thinks he can develop into a top-class prospect. Similarly, Champers On Ice was an expensive purchase at £205,000 in March on the back of an Irish point win but justified strong market support to land a Punchestown bumper in April. He too could prove a top-class recruit to the novice hurdling division but I think flat speed could prove crucial in this four-runner affair and I therefore find it hard to get away from the favourite.
AdvicePENGLAI PAVILION – 2pts win @ 6/4 (Paddy Power)
2.50 Cheltenham – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase
Depending on your view on these races will largely depend on whether you have a bet on the race or not and whilst I feel that the races are more than a novelty, they are certainly something of a specialist discipline and therefore proven form over the course or in similar conditions is likely to carry a lot of weight in my mind.Six of the first seven home in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival are present in today’s line-up and although there is a slight pull in the weights, the winner Rivage D’Or looks worthy of plenty of respect. Some of you might recall the carnage on the final turn at the Festival but there is no doubt that the winner was going well at the time and would have gone close regardless. It is worth noting that he has disappointed in his last two runs in the Irish Grand National and the La Touche Cup but it would be no surprise to see him return to form here.
There also aren’t many race in which you will see fourteen-year-old horses lining up but Uncle Junior is still going strong and was last seen winning the La Touche Cup for a second time at the end of April. He won this race in 2011 and 2012 and whilst he may not be the force of old, he is impossible to rule out given his experience.
Martin Keighley saddles two interesting runners with the first Any Currency a regular face in these sorts of events in the last few years. He was fourth in this race last year when it was a conditions race but now that it is a handicap he concedes weight to all but his stablemate. He has had a spin around Aintree to prep him for this outing and given his consistent record at the venue, he looks likely to run another big race. It will also be interesting to see how his stablemate Champion Court gets on having been rejuvenated over the summer, winning twice over fences and once over hurdles since the beginning of May. He wasn’t beaten that far last time and if he can see out the longer test, he could run better than his odds of 16/1 suggest.
However, there is no man better at training a cross-country horse than Enda Bolger who has farmed these sorts of events in recent times and he sends over JOSIES ORDERS for this assignment. The seven-year-old has a few less miles on the clock than some of his rivals and was running well before being unseated in the La Touche Cup in April. He was turned out a few weeks later at Punchestown in a similar event and made amends winning well in the hands of Nina Carberry. His spin over hurdles a few weeks ago should have put him spot on for this and with his trainer having his own cross-country schooling ground, I wouldn’t have thought he will be short of practice. He has a feather weight of 10st 2lb on his back and although this will be his first experience of the cross country course here, I fancy him to go well.
AdviceJOSIES ORDERS – 1pt win @ 6/1 (William Hill)
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1.45 Ascot – Ascot Underwriting Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase.
This looks a pretty competitive early season novice and, with four of the field tackling fences for the first time, it may pay to side with those with greater affinity of the larger obstacles. Gary Moore’s Vikekhal boasts the most chasing experience in the field and arrives at Ascot searching for the hat-trick following a couple of convincing wins at Fontwell. His latest victory was most impressive as he took the race by the scruff of the neck from the front (albeit racing rather freely in the early stages) and never looked like being caught after that. His jumping has improved markedly since he embarked on a chasing career and this well-bred six-year-old will have a leading chance if afforded an easy lead up front.
However, the lightly-raced VOIX D’EAU is potentially a steep improver and if building on his latest Ffos Las rout, he could well be a blot on the handicap. His win at the Welsh track was only his fourth run in Britain since leaving Emmanuel Clayeux and only his second run over fences. Harry Fry’s charge rounded off last campaign with a fine effort in a Stratford handicap hurdle to finish third behind subsequent Aintree Festival winner Astre De La Cour. He looked like he needed his run back at the Midlands track when finishing second on his chase debut in September and duly made amends on his following start. He has gone up 8lb for that success but has talented amateur Michael Legg in the saddle to take 7lb off and negate the rise.
Of those making their chasing debuts, Padge appeals most given that he is a winning Irish pointer (a race in which he accounted for subsequent Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 winner Very Wood in the process) and ran a cracking race to finish runner-up over the hurdles course at Ascot back in February. Evan Williams’ six-year-old has always had the scope to be a force over fences and promises to be a most interesting recruit to the chasing ranks.
Advice
VOIX D’EAU – 1pt win on @ 4/1 (bet365 & Betvictor)
2.00 Wetherby – Bet365 West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade 2).
The West Yorkshire Hurdle boasts a sublime roll of honour and with World Hurdle winner Cole Harden taking last year’s renewal, the season’s premier staying hurdle will be on the agenda for whoever triumphs here. Perhaps the best equipped to deal with the conditions is ROCK ON RUBY. The former Champion Hurdler threatened to make a World Hurdle appearance last season but Harry Fry put his plans on hold for another year. A pair of two and a half mile Cheltenham wins last campaign, including in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle, showed that he remains a top-quality campaigner and the ten-year-old could well be a class above the rest of the field. The veteran has been a grand hurdler for some time now with his strong travelling style and relaxed nature sure to help with the step up to three miles.Although only officially 1lb inferior to his more illustrious rival, Kilcooley requires a big step up on what he has shown in his career to date, but that might not be completely out of the question. He ran away with a Haydock handicap hurdle last December before achieving his greatest success to date when landing the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell. He has been described by connections as ‘an out-and-out’ galloper so should be well suited to three miles. Charlie Longsdon’s string have been in flying form and if the six-year-old is ready to go first time up, he could give Harry Fry’s stable-star a fright.
One with proven form at the trip is Closing Ceremony, who landed a shock win in the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock in February. He proved to be highly progressive last term and there could well be more to come from him. However, he does carry an 8lb penalty for his latest win and may have something to find on these terms.
Advice
ROCK ON RUBY – 2pts win @ 3/1 (bet365, Coral, Skybet & Boylesports)
2.15 Ascot – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race).
This looks a competitive race for the time of year and the first place to start is with Bellenos who has continued to frustrate his connections in the last eighteen months. He had his wind operated on last winter and the fitting of blinkers seemed to bring about some improvement from the seven-year-old in the spring as he ran well to finish fourth in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree in April. He also raced a little keenly next time at Kempton although it is worth noting that he would have finished closer to the principals had he not made a bad mistake at the second last. He was fourth in the race last year off a 7lb higher mark and if he can cut out the jumping errors, he could be a lively contender.The same can probably be said for Sgt Reckless who has won two of his three starts over fences with his only defeat coming in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival. He should be fit having had a run on the flat in September and although he is light on experience, we know from his hurdles days that he isn’t short of ability. Personally I think his mark over fences is a little high at the moment and whilst I think he can win some races this year, he may have a tough task conceding weight to all but two of his rivals here. The ground should suit him and I fancy him to give a solid display but I have the suspicion that he might find one or two to be too good on the day.
With that in mind I am going to go with last year’s winner ULCK DU LIN to repeat the fete despite racing here off a 15lb higher mark. He gave a promising 7lb claimer by the name of Sean Bowen a good spin last year and he looks to have another good young pilot on his back in Harry Cobden this time around. The seven-year-old was last seen winning at Wincanton in April under Cobden and the good ground on offer here should be ideal for him. He has won here twice as well as running well in defeat last December and on the back of that course form, he gets the nod.
Advice
ULCK DU LIN – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill)
2.30 Wetherby – Olbg.Com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race).
Nicky Henderson’s Ma Filleule is likely to be popular in the betting considering that she was taking part at a lot of the big festivals last season, finishing second in Grade 1 company on more than one occasion. However those runs were over 2m4f over fences and she switches back to two miles over hurdles for the first time since finishing second to Doyly Carte in April 2013. She does get a significant weight allowance from her two main rivals at the head of the field but she hasn’t been seen since April and at the prices, I wouldn’t be too keen on taking a short price about her on her first start back.Harry Fry’s Blue Buttons is no stranger to races such as this and the seven-year-old got her head in front over 2m4f at Wincanton last January. She is not likely to be too far away and could well set the pace in the hands of Noel Fehily although I have a sneaking suspicion that she could find this two miles a little sharp for her.
However, Karl Burke’s INTENSE TANGO was not far from the head of the juvenile ranks last season and having won a Grade 2 at Doncaster in January she ran well in very good company on her final two starts. She has had three runs on the flat over the summer which compared to her old form suggest she may have improved over the summer and with the ground not likely to be too soft, she looks to have a good chance. As I mentioned she has to concede 8lb to Nicky Henderson’s mare but she has the benefit of fitness on her side and with that rival having raced over further, I think Karl Burke’s filly may just have too much toe for her in the closing stages so she gets the vote.
Advice
INTENSE TANGO – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)
2.50 Ascot – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race].
An intriguing Listed Handicap Hurdle, with last year’s winner Sign Of A Victory returning to try and follow up 2014’s success, but it looks a tougher task this time around carrying top weight of 11st 12lb, a full 15lb more than any other horse in the race. While the Nicky Henderson inmate has the best form in the race, including a close second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle in his last start in April, and should run well, he could well find it difficult to give so much weight to some unexposed competition, especially considering he seems to enjoy good ground and it could well be getting towards soft come post time.Jolly’s Cracked It looked a very promising hurdler early last season for Harry Fry’s stable, but seemed to lose his way towards the end of the campaign, albeit in the face of some competitive races. His second to L’Ami Serge in the Tolworth Hurdle and staying-on fifth in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury look fairly solid bits of form, while the Cheltenham Festival’s two and a half mile Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle stretched his stamina too much after going well for much of the race, so a return to Ascot’s two miles will suit. If the six-year-old can return to his promising early novice hurdle form, he could go well at a track he has a 2-2 record at.
Unanimite was highly regarded as a juvenile hurdler early on last season for the Pipe team, finishing a six-length eighth in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival, but his form tailed off as the season went on and it may be the case that he is better fresh. I expect that he’ll outrun his odds of 12/1, but there could end up being a few too good.
I think this has shaped up to be a good race to take a chance on the in-form John Ferguson’s unexposed NABUCCO, who may have escaped with a lenient assessment from the handicapper after winning on the bridle in a novices’ hurdle at Huntingdon. It might have been a fairly poor race, but the way the once 109-rated flat performer cruised through the race under a confident ride oozed quality. On his first start over hurdles, Nabucco was a seven length second to Cardinal Palace, who went on to be short-headed in the Grade 2 Persian War hurdle at Chepstow, so a mark of 132 could underestimate the Dansili gelding’s potential. Any deterioration in the ground shouldn’t inconvenience him and a good run is expected.
Advice
NABUCCO – 1pt win @ 10/3 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor, SkyBet)
3.05 Wetherby – Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2)
A superb renewal of the Charlie Hall Chase with seven high-class chasers contesting, including Philip Hobbs’ winner from 12 months ago, Menorah, who faces a tougher task to take the spoils this time around. The 10-year-old has an excellent record outside of Grade 1 company in the last couple of years, winning all three starts, but even though this is a Grade 2 in name, the opposition is worthy of a Grade 1 and may be just too hot for the veteran of the race given that he runs off 11st 10lb and has to give 10lb to some very classy rivals.One such rival and favourite at the time of writing, Cue Card, makes his first start since finishing a well-beaten fourth to Don Cossack in the Punchestown Gold Cup in April after well-documented issues with a stress-fracture and a persistent wind problem. He hasn’t reached the heights of his seven-year-old campaign, when winning the Ryanair Chase and the Betfair Chase, since and it’s tough to imagine him instantly returning to that level. I think he might just need the run, but trainer Colin Tizzard is hopeful about his charge’s chance and it wouldn’t surprise at all to see a performance better than last season’s offerings. However, 7/2 (Bet365) isn’t a price I’d want to take about one with so many doubts.
Holywell is undoubtedly better in the spring than at this time of year, and has always needed a couple of runs to get into top form, failing to win a race before Christmas since 2011. His best form would give him a decent chance off 11st 6lb, but this is likely to be a stepping stone to the big chases of 2016.
Sam Winner carries the maximum weight, and has a good record after a break, but it’s questionable whether he will have the class to challenge the best in this race. Sean Bowen takes the ride for Paul Nicholls as Sam Twiston-Davies is at Down Royal to ride Ptit Zig, a pointer in itself.
Grand National hero Many Clouds is another horse who is making his seasonal reappearance, but while it’s clear he is a tough, classy chaser, it would be some effort to win a race such as this first time out even though his record when fresh is excellent. I expect the eight-year-old to run a perfectly decent race and maybe even plug on for a place, but the fact he carries 10lb more than Dynaste, Ballynagour and Cue Card dampens enthusiasm for what would be a hugely popular win for Oliver Sherwood’s stable star.
The only horse in the field with something approaching a ‘prep run’ is David Pipe’s DYNASTE, who finished a staying-on ninth in the Prix Carmarthen, a Grade 3 Hurdle at Auteuil three weeks ago. After beginning his 2014/15 campaign in the Betfair Chase, it seems a significant change of strategy from the Pipe yard, making sure that the striking grey is a little more race-fit than he has been for his early-season targets in the past. It looks a hint worth taking for a horse that has performed well at Grade 1 level over the past two years, especially given that he is so well treated at the weights here, escaping a penalty and running off 10lb lower than many of his rivals. An effort similar to his good second to Silviniaco Conti in the 2014 King George VI Chase would give the gelding a huge chance and I think he’s the best bet here. Conor O’Farrell takes the ride due to Tom Scudamore’s injury, but I don’t think that is a major worry.
Interestingly, Pipe has two horses in the race, and Ballynagour joins his stablemate in running off 11st. The nine-year-old improved hand over fist last season, pushing Silviniaco Conti all the way in the Betfred Bowl Chase at Aintree and looked to be going well when falling four out in the Punchestown Gold Cup. However, his record first time out in the last two seasons is uninspiring to say the least – PU PU. The gelding could be an improving chaser to follow this season and has a real chance on his best form, but could just need the run here under Noel Fehily.
Advice
DYNASTE – 2pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet, Betfred, Stan James)
3.25 Ascot – Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase.
Perennially one of the top staying handicap chases on the calendar and the last two year’s winners are in the field as Houblon Des Obeaux and What A Warrior take their chance once again. LE REVE skipped this contest last year in favour of the Silver Cup over course and distance in December and ran with great credit to finish a close-up third behind the well-treated The Young Master. From that moment forward, the seven-year-old went from strength to strength, landing a valuable handicap at Sandown in January before registering two further career-bests when second in the Betbright Chase and third in the bet365 Gold Cup. Lucy Wadham’s charge has been successful on his seasonal debut for each of the last two years so must have a leading chance in this afternoon’s contest.Pendra has proven frustrating to follow over fences but he does remain relatively unexposed in that sphere so can be granted another chance. He was lightly-raced last campaign and the plan almost came to fruition as he was well-fancied at the Cheltenham Festival where he finished fifth, only losing two places on the run-in. Connections have always believed him to be a stayer and even threw him in at the deep end as a novice when having a crack at the Irish National. With Charlie Longsdon’s string in such imperious form, it would be folly to ignore him and, although his recent form figures don’t suggest a win is necessarily on the cards, he is just the type to prove everyone wrong.
Further behind him at Cheltenham was Ned Stark who was sent off the well-backed 6/1 favourite but could only manage to finish a well-beaten eighth in the end. However, that was an admirable effort given he was still a novice and it was by far the biggest field he had encountered over fences. He remains one of the top handicap chasing prospects for this season and, with few miles on the clock, could be a step ahead of the assessor at this stage of the season.
Bettrends Advice
LE REVE – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (SkyBet)
4.00 Ayr – Tennent´s Cup Handicap Hurdle.
Our final race of the day sees a familiar name in the shape of GLINGERBURN who won his first four starts over hurdles last season including a Grade 2 at Kelso in February in which he got the better of Bristol De Mai and Intense Tango. He failed to justify favouritism when attempting to double up at Aintree in April but he nevertheless had a smart novice campaign. He didn’t travel as well as normal on his latest outing and his rider suggested that it may have been one dance too far for him at the end of a long season. This is obviously a handicap so he has to concede weight all around but he was bordering on Grade 1 class at the end of last term and off a mark of 149, he looks hard to oppose on his return to action.His main danger looks likely to be Brian Ellison’s Forest Bihan who was purchased following a nine lengths success in France last November. His trainer is reported to be very keen on this individual and whilst we have yet to see him on a racecourse in England, the 17lb he receives from the market leader is likely to bring the pair very close together. He obviously needs to step forward on what he has done so far but I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to give the favourite a bit of a fright.
Of the rest, this time of year looks likely to be the time to catch Lightening Rod who was second on his return to action last season before winning twice at Wetherby, the last of which came off a 2lb lower mark than he races off here. He lost his form somewhat after that but Harry Bannister gets a good tune out of him and I could see the ten-year-old bouncing back and running well on his first start since April.
Advice
GLINGERBURN – 1pt win @ 11/4 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)
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Newmarket (4.50)
HERNANDOSHIDEAWAY bids to get back on track following a disappointing run in the Melrose last time. He was just too keen in the early stages that day and as a result, he failed to see out the 1m6f trip. To his credit he still travelled well into the race and was one of the last to come off the bridle so I don’t think we should be too harsh on him. He drops back to 1m4f here which should suit and in the absence of Paul Mulrennan, Michael Dods has secured the services of Jamie Spencer. His opposition include Hugo Palmer’s Not Never who was second in the afore mentioned Melrose and Luca Cumani’s Knight Of Wands who got off the mark at the second attempt last time. Dods’ three-year-old does concede weight all around here but if you ignore his last run he looks to have a leading chance. He will need to settle better than he did last time but Spencer has good hands and I wouldn’t be too concerned about him being keen dropping back in trip. He still looks to have some progression in him and I think he has a leading chance here.Advice
HERNANDOSHIDEAWAY – 2pts win @ 11/2 (Coral)
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2.00 Ayr – William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) Our action on Saturday gets underway with this Group 3 for fillies over the straight six furlongs up at Ayr. Clive Cox’s Priceless is likely to be popular in the market having run out a ready winner on her racecourse debut at Haydock at the beginning of the month. A 70,000 guineas purchase as a yearling, she travelled smoothly throughout in the hands of Adam Kirby and having hit the front inside the final furlong, she stretched clear to win by seven lengths at the line. In truth the form doesn’t look up to much but she was well on top at the line and I don’t think you can hold that against her. She clearly has plenty of ability but she will face several rivals here with a bit more experience here and we should learn more about her. She obviously deserves plenty of respect given the way that she won on debut but I wouldn’t be keen on taking a short price about her and think there are better options in the race. Richard Hannon’s Whatdoiwantthatfor has had plenty of racing but won a Listed race at Newbury in August and despite already being beaten twice at this level, she should be respected. She ran into a smart performer in the shape of La Rioja at Salisbury last time and I don’t think it is unfair to say that there isn’t anything of that quality in this field. She has plenty of experience and on official ratings, she is the one to beat. However, David Barron’s LADY CLAIR brings Lowther form to the table having finished fourth in the York contest last time and could be the each-way bet in the race. She improved for the step up to six furlongs and had only Besharah, Lumiere and Easton Angel ahead of her at the line. She was ridden patiently that day before staying on in the closing stages and I think she will be ridden with more confidence here. She has improved with each of her three starts to date and looks to have the right sort of profile to win this race. She is available at around the 7/1 mark and in a wide open event, I think she has strong each-way claims. Advice LADY CLAIR – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (William Hill) 2.05 Newmarket – Federation Of Bloodstock Agents “Ebf Stallions†Maiden Fillies´ Stakes It is not often that I include maidens in my previews given the number of unknown factors involved in such a race but John Gosden introduces a nice filly by the name of EYESHINE. She is a daughter of the Oaks winner Casual Look and cost a whopping 1.45 million dollars when she went through the ring as a yearling. The yard are reported to think quite a bit of her and considering that this maiden has been won by the likes of Midday, Taghrooda and Lady Of Dubai in recent years, it often turns out to be a strong race. She could be an Oaks filly for next year all being well and it will be interesting to see how she gets on. The Gosden yard tend to be fairly straight for their debuts and I think she can run a big race. The main danger is likely to be Haggle who finished third behind Ballydoyle and Nemoralia in a maiden at the July meeting. She stayed on well that day over seven furlongs so the extra furlong should help. The yard’s runners tend to come on for a run and having missed a similar engagement a couple of weeks ago on account of the ground, she has been set this assignment. She should be more popular in the market than she was on debut and looks the one we have to beat. Advice EYESHINE – 1pt win 2.15 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Once again we are likely to have soft ground for the Mill Reef and as we saw last year with Toocoolforschool, whether these two-year-olds handle it can have a big effect on the outcome. The current favourite at the time of writing is Richard Fahey’s Ribchester who despite still being a maiden has already achieved a good level of form in two starts. He was beaten by a member of the William Haggas who had the benefit of experience at Doncaster on debut before chasing home Ajaya in the Gimcrack last time. It took a while for the penny to drop that day but he was motoring inside the final furlong and although he never looked like catching the winner, he is clearly smart. He has subsequently been bought by Godolphin and should be thereabouts but I would not be too keen about taking 13/8. Instead I think the one to be with is RAUCOUS who finished behind Richard Fahey’s colt in the Gimcrack but crucially is proven on the ground having won on soft ground at Newmarket in July. Despite having had three runs, he was still very green at York and should be able to step forward from that effort. William Haggas has a pretty smart bunch of juveniles this season so should have a good idea of how good this lad is. In truth I don’t think there is much between the two colts I have mentioned but at the prices and with the latter already proven on the ground, he gets the nod. I should also briefly mention Bryan Smart’s King Robert who won on very soft ground at Carlisle and has since followed up at Chester. I would be surprised if he were good enough to win but he will handle the conditions and could run better than his price suggests. Advice RAUCOUS – 1pt win @ 11/4 (Coral, BetVictor) 2.35 Ayr – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) The Silver Cup looks an interesting puzzle to solve as cases can easily be made for just over half of the field but I have managed to narrow the shortlist down to a more manageable four. Towards the head of the weights, David O’Meara’s Eccleston looks to be of plenty of interest having run well when drawn on the wrong side in the Great St Wilfrid before winning at Thirsk next time. The form has worked out well with the runner-up Another Wise Kid also running well in the Portland at Doncaster last weekend. He gets a 5lb penalty for that latest win and missed the cut for the Gold Cup by just a couple of pounds. The draw hasn’t been overly kind to him here as historically those drawn on either rail tend to be favoured, although last year the stands side group looked to have a major advantage. He is drawn in the middle in 13 so Danny Tudhope will have the option of going either way but I think there are better fancies in the race. Richard Fahey has won this race twice in the last decade and saddles three runners in this year’s field but his best chance must be with George Bowen who landed a big prize when winning a the Curragh last weekend. From a poor draw, Jamie Spencer gave him an inspired ride to get him over onto the stands rail and he ran on well at the line to win by one and three-quarter lengths. That followed a win at Newmarket in August and he arrives here in search of the hat-trick and is difficult to dismiss. However, I like the chances of Chris Wall’s JOHARA who having been off the track for more than a year ran well to finish fourth behind Eccleston at Thirsk last time. The filly was held up and didn’t get an entirely clear passage so her effort needs marking up. She finished only one and three-quarter lengths behind the winner that day and with a slight pull in the weights and normal improvement after such a long lay-off she should be able to run well. She is drawn on the stands side rail in 25 which was the place to be last year and with the Wall team continuing to fire in the winners, she gets the nod at around the 8/1 mark. At a bigger price, I think Kevin Ryan’s Teruntum Star could run well if he is none the worse for his run at Newmarket in August. Prior to that he had won well at the same venue but never looked to be going last time. He too is drawn high and with Pat Smullen an eye-catching booking, he could run better than his 25/1 price suggests. Advice JOHARA – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (BetVictor) 2.50 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap This looks a tricky affair with some smart older horses taking on some of the Classic generation, who may be a little less exposed at the moment. Sir Michael Stoute’s Top Tug tends to run well without winning a lot of the time and with two furlongs to run at York last time you would have called him the winner. However, his effort petered out inside the final furlong and he shaped as though he didn’t stay the 1m4f trip. It is hard to know what his best trip is considering that he stays on over 1m2f and looks a non-stayer over any further. My suspicion is that a long straight like it is at Newbury will suit and if he can travel as well as he did at York, he would have to be in the mix. He seems pretty versatile in terms of ground although he has never raced on really soft ground but he looks worth a place on the shortlist. One four-year-old who did get his head in front last time was What About Carlo who returning to his favourite course Epsom, ran out a ready winner of a conditions event at the end of August. There were only three runners that day but he beat the smart Fattsota by nearly four lengths and Andrew Balding’s Collaboration by another one and three-quarter lengths. That was a marked step up on anything he has done this year and with it having come on heavy ground, the conditions here should be no problem. He has won off a mark of 94 in the past so 96 (which he races off today) shouldn’t weight him out of it. This looks more competitive than his last race but he arrives in good form and it would be no surprise to see him go close again. A member of the Classic generation has won two of the last three renewals of this race and following a testing week, I’m sure Luca Cumani will be hoping that Laurence can run well for the yard. He beat a smart filly of William Haggas’ at Beverley last time, getting first run on her before staying on strongly in the closing stages. He gets a 5lb penalty for that effort which shouldn’t be an issue but the ground may be his biggest concern. He has raced on soft only once as a two-year-old and was well beaten in third but he is a bit stronger now and may be able to cope with it better. He has raced exclusively on ground described as good or faster subsequently which suggests his trainer has concerns, but he is progressive and should show up well. However, I am going to side with Tom Dascombe’s CYMRO who has won three times this season over 1m2f on ground with a bit of cut in it. He looked as good as he ever has at Haydock last time, stretching clear to win by two and a quarter lengths at the line. He too carries a 5lb penalty for those exertions but conditions seem to be in his favour once again here and I fancy him to run well. The only negative is the draw out in stall 14 but if he can overcome that I think he has a solid each-way chance at around 10/1. Advice CYMRO – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Boylesports) 3.10 Ayr – William Hill Doonside Cup (Listed Race) This looks as strong a renewal of this race as there has been for a while and the first place to start is with Top Notch Tonto. Brian Ellison’s five-year-old has been the model of consistency this season winning at York in June before being placed in Group company on his last three starts. The latest of those was at Leopardstown on Saturday where he was a staying on second behind Custom Cut, suggesting that the return to 1m2f should suit him. He carries a 4lb penalty for that Listed win earlier in the campaign but is tough and genuine and looks likely to play a big part in the outcome here. However, should he line-up, it is hard to look past EAGLE TOP who was last seen when beaten in the King George by Postponed in July. That form has obviously been boosted with the winner having won in France last weekend and there is no doubt that John Gosden’s colt is a bit better than Listed class. He also has an entry at Newbury on Saturday so it might be a case of where he gets the best ground but if he runs here, I find it hard to see him getting turned over. Of the rest of the field, William Haggas’ Mutakayyef made an encouraging reappearance behind Mondialiste at York in August and should come on for that run. He was placed three times in Group company last term so should be thereabouts and has a good draw in stall 1. If Eagle Top doesn’t run, he is my idea of the most likely winner. Advice EAGLE TOP – 2pts win Mutakayyef – 1pt win (if Eagle Top is a non runner) 3.45 Ayr – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (HANDICAP BREAKERS RACE) The Ayr Gold Cup is one of the most fiercely contested sprints anywhere in Europe with twenty seven runners hurtling down the straight six furlongs at Ayr. This year’s renewal looks no different but hopefully by considering the recent trends, we can find the winner. One of the strongest trends associated with the race is the weight trend and 9st 2lb appears to be the limit in this contest. In fact only Our Jonathan, Advanced and last year’s winner Louis The Pious have defied this trend in recent years, so it is best to keep on the right side of it. In terms of this year’s field this rules out everyone from Jack Dexter down to Red Pike. Looking at the age of recent winners, it is clear that four and five-year-olds have dominated recent renewals having had seven of the last ten winners. In terms of the rest, we have to go back to Funfair Wane in 2002 to find the last three-year-old winner and as for the older horses, since 1980 the oldest winner was the seven-year-old Hard To Figure which doesn’t bode well for the likes of Hoof It, Highland Colori and Dinkum Diamond. The draw can often play a big part in the outcome of races such as this and this race is no different. In recent years the best place to be is towards either rail, more specifically seven of the last ten winners were drawn no more than eight stalls from either rail. Applying that to this year’s field suggests that the likes of Highland Acclaim, Toofi and Lexington Abbey are drawn well amongst the low numbers and on the other side, Blaine, Red Pike and Tanzeel have prime positions. It is perhaps not surprising given the competitive nature of the race, but horses tend to come here on the top of their game to win here. A top four finish on their latest outing is something that six of the last ten winners have had in common, including five of the last six, so it seems unwise to ignore it. This year this statistic just about splits the field in half with some of those arriving in form including Don’t Touch, Hoof It and Rene Mathis. When looking at trainer trends, it is apparent that horses trained in the south have not done as well as their northern rivals in recent years. In fact only three of the last ten winners have been trained outside the North of England suggesting that the likes of Tanzeel, Majestic Moon, Ninjago and Boom The Groom are up against it here. The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and with only one winning favourite in the last 35 years, I think it is fair to say we can afford to take on the market principals here. At the time of writing, Don’t Touch currently heads the betting which is a negative for him and with no single figure SP winners in the last decade, it gives us license to look for one at a big price. Shortlist LEXINGTON ABBEY – 6/6 Highland Acclaim – 5/6 Blaine – 5/6 Conclusion Having applied all of the trends, the standout candidate is LEXINGTON ABBEY who scores a perfect six from six. He has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and was last seen finishing a narrow second at Nottingham back in July. He was fifth in the Silver Cup twelve months ago but races off a career high mark of 97 here. I think it is interesting that Kevin Ryan has booked Pat Smullen to ride as the pair teamed up with Captain Ramius to good effect in 2012. He is drawn on the far side in stall 7 and having appeared to have been kept back with this race in mind, he looks sure to go well. Also on the shortlist is David O’Meara’s HIGHLAND ACCLAIM who despite having an indifferent start to the season, has found some form of late. He ran well at York’s Ebor meeting to finish second and aside from a lacklustre effort at Ascot he returned to form at Doncaster last weekend finishing fifth. The return to six furlongs should work in his favour here and having run well in the race last year, he looks likely to go well again this time around. The only trend he misses is the top four finish having finished fifth at Doncaster last week but he looks to have an otherwise strong profile. The shortlist is completed by BLAINE who like Highland Acclaim misses the form trend having finished tenth when last seen at York in July. He was third in the race off a 6lb higher mark last year and with the blinkers having been left off for his latest test, they are refitted for this assignment. He hasn’t shown much form all year so needs to bounce right back to his best, but he looks dangerously handicapped and could take advantage of his workable mark. Advice LEXINGTON ABBEY – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (General) 3.50 Newmarket – Betfred Cesarewitch Trial (Handicap) This race proved a good guide to the Cesarewitch last year and given the quality of the field this time around, I think we will gain a few clues this time around as well. The first one to mention is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Sands Of Fortune who ran away with a valuable handicap at Glorious Goodwood over 2m5f. He made all that day before kicking clear in the closing stages and in truth he never looked like being caught, winning by six lengths at the line. The handicapper has since raised him 9lb in a bid to stop such a convincing performance from happening again but you wouldn’t be totally sure that that will be enough. He is clearly a strong stayer and having had just five runs in his career to date, there is no reason that he can’t still be improving. David Pipe saddles an intriguing runner in the shape of Low Key who won two 1m4f handicaps in 2014, all be it off much lower mark than he races off today. It has taken the eight-year-old to get a hang of things of hurdles but he has now won his last two starts over obstacles, most recently a couple of weeks ago at Fontwell. He is clearly in fine form at present but runs here off 17lb higher than he did the last time he ran on the flat. Runners from the Pipe yard always deserve a second look and with the in-form Tom Marquand booked, it would be no surprise to see him go well. There are also two runners from the Tony Martin stable in the shape of Cassells Rock and Encrypted Message and whilst there isn’t much between them I slightly prefer the former. He was beaten less than a length in a big handicap at Leopardstown off a similar mark to this one and comes here on the back of a smooth success over hurdles in August. He was pushed out under hands and heels that day suggesting that there is more to come and I think he is the pick of the Martin duo. However, I am going to side with BIG EASY who was actually beaten in this race last year before winning the real thing a few weeks later. He runs here off just 4lb higher than he won the Cesarewitch off last term and having showed improved form over hurdles subsequently, he may just have improved since this time last year. You would normally say that there is 40lb between a horse’s flat mark and hurdles mark and in this case there is 52lb which suggests that there is probably some improvement to find in his current flat mark. He just couldn’t quite get to the winner last year but now that we know he stays the trip I think he will be ridden more positively. He has course and distance form and looks a solid each-way bet at around the 15/2 mark. Advice BIG EASY – 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (SkyBet)
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2.00 Goodwood – 888Sport Prestige Stakes (Group 3) Our Saturday afternoon’s entertainment begins with a Group 3 for two-year-old fillies and despite running slightly below expectations at Newmarket in the Sweet Solera Stakes last time, I think it might be too soon to be writing off Hugo Palmer’s Hawksmoor. She was really impressive when winning on debut on the all-weather at Kempton and even last time, she stuck to the task well despite not having the turn of foot of the winner. She was only beaten two and a half lengths at the line and I think racing around a bend may also suit her a little better than the straight seven furlongs at Newmarket. I have a slight concern with the ground likely to be on the soft side but she is clearly a filly on the up and I can’t see her being too far away at the business end of the race. Richard Hannon’s Belvoir Bay brings previous Goodwood form to the table having landed a 6f nursery at the end of last month. Despite conceding weight to all but one of her rivals on the day, she won with plenty in hand at the line, quickening up smartly to win by one and a half lengths. She travelled smoothly throughout on that occasion before quickening in the style of a nice filly and was going better the further she went on that occasion. Like Hawksmoor I have a concern about the ground as this filly has never raced on anything other than good to firm ground so the softer underfoot conditions are something of an unknown. Should she handle the conditions you would have to say she is the one to beat based on the manner of her latest win but there is plenty of doubt in my mind at present. Therefore it may be best to go with a filly that is already proven in these sorts of conditions, namely Mick Channon’s EPSOM ICON. She caused something of a surprise when landing the Listed Denford Stud Stakes last month in which she beat the third and fourth from the Vintage Stakes. She seems to be improving with her racing and her form on the ground ticks yet another box for us. It is also worth mentioning that her trainer has saddled two of the last three winners of this race so it is clearly one that he targets with his nice fillies. Her latest success was something of a surprise but she is clearly a filly on the upgrade and with that experience under her belt, she gets the nod. Advice EPSOM ICON – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Bet365, SkyBet) 2.20 Beverley – Totescoop6 Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) This looks as open a renewal of this race as there has been for some time and it has taken a lot of work to get the field down to just five main contenders. Eric Alston’s Ridge Ranger was impressive at Goodwood last time beating a progressive rival in the shape of Roger Varian’s Double Up in good style. There was plenty to like about that performance and the filly is clearly thriving at present so can’t be dismissed lightly on what she has achieved of late. Her main obstacle to overcome could be the draw with no winner coming from a double-figure stall in the last ten years of the race. For this reason, it might be better to look elsewhere. The same can be said for Brian Ellison’s Northgate Lad who looks to have an otherwise likable profile aside from his drawn in stall 11. A winner at Newcastle in June, prior to that he had performed consistently well, finishing second twice before his fourth place behind Twilight Son at York in June. He probably doesn’t want the ground too soft and could have a chance but as we have discussed it could be difficult from stall 11. Bryan Smart is no stranger to success in this race having saddled Hellvelyn and Tangerine Trees to victories in recent years and although he sends the latter here again this year, I slightly prefer the chances of his stablemate Red Pike. He has taken a little while to regain the winning thread but got a strong pace to run at last time and it saw him finish to good effect to gain a narrow success. The Ayr Gold Cup was mooted as the plan after that with the frenetic early gallop likely to suit him once again and he should get that here, although the drop back to five furlongs might be on the sharp side for him. He is likely to be doing his best work at the finish and with a clear run, he looks a likely candidate for the frame. The two Irish raiders MAAREK and Dikta Del Mar also look likely to play a major role in proceedings with both likely to be suited by the underfoot conditions. The former is no stranger to top class contests and on his last run over the minimum trip, he finished just three and a half lengths behind subsequent Nunthorpe winner Mecca’s Angel. He runs here without a penalty and has been given a good draw in stall 4 which should allow him to get a good position. He may need a bit of luck in running as he is likely to be ridden patiently by Jamie Spencer but he is a solid Group performer and you can’t say that for many of these. His fellow Irish raider is one of only two three-year-olds in the race and was last seen finishing third behind Monsieur Joe at Tipperary at the beginning of this month. He does need to improve a bit on what we have seen so far this term to go close here but I don’t think his trainer would be bringing him over unless he felt he would be competitive. Advice MAAREK – 1pt win @ 5/1 (bet365, William Hill) 2.35 Goodwood – 888Sport Stakes (Handicap) We have a twenty-runner handicap next to test the brain and Richard Fahey’s Farlow has to be of interest having been running well before getting his head in front at Doncaster last time. He saw the seven furlongs out strongly on Town Moor and despite Goodwood presenting a very different test, he should be able to show up well despite his 4lb rise in the weights. The main negative against his chances is the draw having been allocated stall 16. As we discussed during the Glorious meeting, it can be difficult from a wide stall as you have to either drop in and risk running into trouble or use valuable early petrol to secure a position. In fact only two of the last ten winners were drawn higher than eight so the low numbers definitely seem to have the advantage. Of those drawn low, Amanda Perrett’s improving five-year-old Czech It Out looks worthy of a second look having been narrowly denied at Newbury last time. He was perhaps a little unlucky on the day as he encountered trouble in running at a crucial stage and despite running on afterwards, he just couldn’t get to the winner. He won over course and distance back in May and this lightly-raced campaigner seems to be in a rich vein of form at present. The draw has been kinder to him that it was last time and Kieran Shoemark takes a valuable 5lb off his back. He looks likely to be competitive off his current mark and he looks to hold solid each-way claims. However, he could have his work cut out with FOX TROTTER who was earmarked to be Richard Hughes’ final ride. Sadly there was no fairytale ending but the three-year-old still ran well despite being drawn wide and being very keen in the early part of the race. He kept on once switched to the outside to finish fourth but he never really looked to be getting to the leaders. He had been off the track since the previous October prior to that run so he should be a bit straighter mentally and physically for that return to action. He has secured a good position in stall 1 and on what we saw over course and distance at the beginning of the month, he looks likely to run a big race. Advice FOX TROTTER – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (BetVictor) 2.50 Newmarket – Fly Easyjet From London Southend Airport Handicap Mick Appleby’s Royal Signaller will no doubt be popular as the five-year-old comes here in search of a hat-trick. Victories at Doncaster and Ascot have seen him go up just seven pounds and the 5lb claim of the in-form Tom Marquand will help take some of that off. He didn’t look to be stopping over 2m last time but the race wasn’t the most truly run affair so the drop back to 1m5f should not cause him too many problems. The yard have a knack of improving horses likes this one and can’t be dismissed with any confidence in his search for a third consecutive success. Karraar who joined William Haggas at the beginning of the season, won on his first start for the yard at Sandown but didn’t seem to see the trip out at Nottingham last time. He travelled well to a point and looked likely to mount a challenge but couldn’t see the race out. The ground was pretty soft that day so he deserves a second chance at the trip on slightly better ground and should run well. At the foot of the weights, Karl Burke’s Intense Tango is an interesting runner having turned in two solid efforts on her return to the flat. A Grade 2 winner over hurdles, she was doing all of her best work at the finish over 1m4f and it is easy to see why connections have decided to step her up slightly in trip. She gets weight all around here and with the extra distance likely to bring about a little bit more improvement from here, she looks an intriguing contender. Despite that, Alan Swinbank did us a good turn last week with Libran and he looks to have another promising stayer in KINEMA who did very little wrong when a narrow second at Nottingham last time. That followed another narrow defeat against a most progressive rival and having gone up just 3lb for his last run, he should be thereabouts again here. He is progressing and getting better with racing and with the Swinbank battalion in good form of late, I see this four-year-old as the one they all have to beat. Advice KINEMA – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Boylesports) 3.25 Newmarket – Stobart Club And Shop Hopeful Stakes (Listed Race) This six furlongs Listed race looks a tricky little puzzle to solve with the ground likely to affect the chances of some of the main contenders here. If the forecast is correct then it should be just about good ground by the time this race goes off but it might just ride a little slower than that considering all the rain that they got on Wednesday. At the bottom of the racecard, Lucky Kristale may not have got her head in front since winning the Lowther Stakes at York a couple of years ago but she has turned in some fine efforts in defeat this term, most recently over the same course and distance on the Knavesmire. She was closing all the time on New Providence that day but just couldn’t quite get there and lost nothing in defeat. She does like fast ground which she won’t get here but the switch of headgear from blinkers to a visor could be an interesting one, in a bid to eke out a little more improvement from her. She gets a fillies allowance here and although the ground is not as quick as she would like, there are plenty of other factors that suggest she can go close. Another of interest is Dinkum Diamond who has been in the form of his life this term and ran a cracker to finish fourth in the Steward’s Cup last time. Henry Candy clearly has his seven-year-old in fine fettle at the moment and having won on everything from soft to good to firm, the ground shouldn’t affect him too much. He is probably vulnerable to real classy performer on his day but he continues to run well in similar races and I would not be surprised to see him thereabouts inside the final furlong. Without having a real strong conviction in the race, I have come down in favour of PORTAMENTO who won his maiden at Goodwood last term, beating Estidhkaar by four lengths at the line. He has always looked a smart sprinter over five or six furlongs and having won at Chester in July, he has run well subsequently finishing second in Group 3 company at Newbury before a fourth placed finish back at Chester last time. The draw was not kind to him on the latest outing and I don’t think this three-year-old would need to find very much to get his head in front here. A lot of his best form is on soft ground so any moisture would be to his advantage and I think he could be tough to beat here. Advice PORTAMENTO – 1pt win @ 9/2 (BetVictor, William Hill) 3.45 Goodwood – Doom Bar Celebration Mile (Group 2] It is little surprise to see that the three-year-olds have such a strong record in this race in recent years, having accounted for half of the last ten winners. The weight-for-age allowance means that members of the Classic generation receive 6lb from their elder rivals and when you consider that the past winners of the race include Zacinto, Raven’s Pass and Poet’s Voice, you can see why the older horses may have struggled. There are only six runners this year but despite having only one representative in this year’s field I think the three-year-olds are likely to take the prize again this time around. KODI BEAR flies the flag for them this year and he could not have been more impressive when winning the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury last time by four and a half lengths. He has always been highly regarded by his connections but having missed the early part of this year with a setback, he looks to be coming good now. The ground should be no problem for him and although he has been drawn in stall 6, he should be able to get over and dictate the pace as he did last time. Personally, I think he is a Group 1 horse and looking at the rest of the field I think you would find it difficult to call give them that tag. Gerald Mosse once again comes over to ride the colt and I fancy him to win well here before heading to Champions Day for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Unfortunately he is likely to be quite short in the market given the opposition and whilst I think he will win I wouldn’t be going having the mortgage on it. As to who will follow him home, both Breton Rock and Cable Bay both ran well in a similar race over seven furlongs last time when finishing third and fourth in the Hungerford Stakes. I have slight preference for the former who seems to really relish soft ground, although he is far from the strongest stayer of a mile. Like I say they have their work cut out to beat the favourite but they should be the main dangers to the market leader. Advice KODI BEAR – 2pts win @ 8/11 (Bet365, Coral, Paddy Power) 4.05 Beverley – Play The New Scoop6soccer Today Handicap Mark Johnston has won three recent renewals of this race and he sends two runners here in search of a fourth success. Of the pair, I prefer the chances of Mister Rockandroll who has won his last two starts at Brighton and Carlisle. He is clearly progressing and despite now being 10lb higher than he was for the first of those successes, he remains of interest. He has improved for stepping up to 1m4f of late and the drop back of a couple of furlongs isn’t guaranteed to suit but he is likely to race prominently and if he gets to the front, he could be hard to peg back. Sir Michael Stoute does not send too many runners up to Beverley so it could be worth taking a second look at Rib Reserve who recorded a second career success at Leicester earlier this month. He looked a strong stayer over 1m2f that day so the stiff finish at Leicester should play into his favour. One slight concern might be the ground because whilst I don’t think it will be soft, it will certainly be slower than the good to firm that this three-year-old has won on. He went up 7lb for his latest win but is lightly-raced and not long ago he didn’t finish too far behind the smart Storm The Stars. Graham Gibbons gets the ride and he should be able to make his presence felt here. However, there aren’t many yards in better form at present than that of William Haggas and he sends the smart SEALIFE up here for this assignment. A winner on debut at Windsor back in July, she was disappointing in a good race at Newbury before resuming winning ways at Nottingham next time. She seemed to enjoy the step up to ten furlongs and with the ground having been soft that day, she ticks plenty of boxes. This daughter of Sea The Stars looks to have plenty going in her favour here and looks to have bundles of improvement still to come. This looks another good step for her and I think she will prove a good bit better than her current mark of 89. Advice SEALIFE – 2pts win @ 7/4 (Ladbrokes, William Hill) 6.20 Redcar – Market Cross Jewellers Novice Median Auction Stakes An impressive winner at Leicester on debut, she was thrown into the Lowther Stakes at York last week and set the frenetic fractions for much of the way alongside Lumiere before dropping away in the closing stages. There was plenty to like about the run albeit that she faded quite badly in the final furlong but this assignment represents a big drop in class. The extra furlong should be no problem for her and receiving weight all around here she could be tough to beat. This looks a good opportunity for her and as long as last week’s run hasn’t taken too much out of her, she looks a strong fancy. Her main danger is likely to be Sir Mark Prescott’s Time Warp who has won his last two starts, a maiden at Southwell and a nursery at Sandown. He was given a fine front-running ride last time with Luke Morris kicking at just the right time and it proved enough to hold off his rivals in the closing stages. He looks likely to go well again here but has to give our filly 10lb and I think he will find it difficult if she is on her best form. Advice CONTINENTAL LADY – 2pts win 6.35 Windsor – Unibet Winter Hill Stakes (Group 3) Our final race covered this weekend is this Group 3 from Windsor, won twelve months ago by Roger Charlton’s Al Kazeem. This year’s renewal has attracted a good field with the three-year-old Racing History the final name on the racecard. Despite not handling the soft ground on debut at Newmarket, there was cut in the ground when he won his maiden at Haydock in May. An impressive winner next time at Chester, he looks a colt on the up and receiving weight all around here, he looks one of the more likely contenders. In terms of progression, there won’t be many horses in training that have improved as much as Rembrandt Van Rijn this term, with David Lanigan’s gelding having landed a fourth consecutive victory at Haydock in August. He hasn’t always been the most straightforward of characters but his connections seem to have worked him out and they are now starting to benefit from it. He is likely to be delivered late by George Baker and whilst he has earned a crack at this sort of prize, he still needs to prove he is not just a very good handicapper. Sir Michael Stoute won this race twice in 2006 and 2007 with Tam Lin and Queen’s Best and he saddles Cannock Chase here in search of a third success in the race. He looked a colt destined for great things last term winning a handicap at Newbury before running away with the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot next time. He missed the rest of the campaign but was a good third in the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown before running Maverick Wave close in the Huxley Stakes. He probably would have finished closer last time in the Prince Of Wales Stakes with a clear run although he has yet to show that he is up to Group 1 class. He does have form on soft ground but I have no doubt that he is a much better horse on fast ground and whether the conditions here will see him to be best effect remains to be seen. He has had a break and whilst I think he is likely to be fighting out the finish he may find one too good on the day. That one could be FASCINATING ROCK who I think is Dermot Weld’s first runner at Windsor and as we have seen in the past, he does not tend to send runners over unless they are likely to run well. A winner of three Group 3 contests in Ireland, he was last seen when beaten a quarter of a length by Al Kazeem in the Tattersalls Gold Cup in May and has been freshened up since then. The soft ground should be perfect for him and the slight drawback is that he shoulders a 4lb penalty for his latest success at this level. However, I don’t see that being too much of a problem as on official ratings at least he is 6lb clear of the field and is a proven Group 1 performer. He sets a lofty standard here and I find it difficult to see him getting turned over here. Advice FASCINATING ROCK – 2pts win @ 13/8 (Bet365)
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1.55 York – Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap) Well talk about jumping straight in at the deep end as we have a fiendishly difficult sprint handicap to start the week off. I have gone in search of a draw bias in order to narrow the field down and on the whole, if the ground is good or good to firm then the high numbers seemed to be favoured. In the last six renewals of the race, only Secret Asset has won from a single figure draw and the ground that day was good to soft. The other five winners were drawn 15, 15, 11, 15 and 18 so with the forecast looking good for the week ahead, it looks as though we will be starting the meeting on ground no slower than good. With that in mind, the 2013 winner Bogart must once again have a good chance having also finished sixth (beaten just two lengths) twelve months ago. It is fair to say that he is not the most prolific winner but he tends to run well over this five and a half furlongs trip and he is 1lnb lower than last year’s mark this time around. He is likely to race prominently in the hands of Neil Callan and was not headed until the last fifty yards last year. He is drawn in stall 17 so he should be well placed to get out and race along the stands side rail and having run well of late, he looks to have a good each-way shout in an open race. However, Kevin Ryan’s six-year-old may be vulnerable to a strong finisher and Roger Charlton’s HUNTSMANS CLOSE looks to fit that bill perfectly. He won the Ayr Silver Cup last term and having been denied by a short-head at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, he gained compensation in a valuable Windsor handicap in June. He missed the Wokingham having bolted to the start but ran well in the Stewards’ Cup on his most recent outing finishing sixth. He was only beaten two and a half lengths I think there could be more to come from him. This slight drop back in trip should suit and the fast early pace could set it up perfectly for him. His jockey George Baker is a fine rider in these sorts of races and with seemingly more to come from him, he gets the narrow nod. A couple on the far side to look out for could be Shore Step who ran well in the Stewards Cup Consolation race last time, finishing fourth. Prior to that he had finished second to a smart sprinter of Charlie Hills despite the saddle slipping in the closing stages. He should also benefit from the slight drop back in trip having led for most of the way over six furlongs last time. He is drawn nine so it will be interesting to see where Silvestre De Sousa decides to go but if he can get over to the near side he wouldn’t be without a chance. That is unlikely to be an option for Daniel Tudhope however aboard Highland Acclaim as he comes from stall 3. He was well-regarded by connections last year and ran well here on more than one occasion. He can pull very hard in his races and it has taken five runs this season for him to get it out of his system. He has been cut some slack by the handicapper and is now just 1lb higher than his last winning mark and having shown signs of a return to form last time, he can’t be discounted. It is not often that I would suggest backing two horses but on this occasion I will as it is likely to be a case of whether the rest can get past Bogart, and if they do then I find it hard to see one of them not being Huntsmans Close. MY ADVICE HUNTSMANS CLOSE – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill) BOGART – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Coral) 2.30 York – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) As two-year-old races go this is one of my favourites and the ten-runner field for this year’s renewal looks likely to throw up another strong winner of the race. Apart from the last two years this race has tended to go the way of those towards the head of the market although three of the last ten winners were sent off favourite. At this stage there is no clear cut favourite but one horse who is likely to be high on many shortlists is William Haggas’ RECORDER. Having shown signs of inexperience on his debut in July, he finished third beaten just over a length but having been turned out quickly the following week, put that effort behind him when getting off the mark last time. He was much more professional on his second start and it is worth noting that the yard also won the same maiden with Entifaadha in 2011 before that colt came to the Knavesmire to win the Acomb Stakes. This colt is owned by The Queen and is out of the Albany Stakes winner Memory and at this early stage of his career, he looks like he could be capable of living up to that excellent pedigree. His trainer is not one to tilt at windmills and with the form of his maiden starting to work out well (3rd and 4th won next time), he gets the vote. However, I don’t think there is much between him and Kevin Ryan’s Mohab who was third over course and distance at the end of July. He was sent to Catterick to get off the mark and although it is hard to weigh up the strength of the form, he couldn’t have been more impressive on the day, winning by eight lengths. This race was nominated as his target immediately afterwards and with Kevin Ryan having won this with Palace Episode in 2005, he knows what it takes. He has a19% strike-rate with his two-year-olds at York in the last five seasons and he likes sending his horses here. Like I say there isn’t much between them but I think the form of Recorder’s maiden is stronger than Mohab’s so he gets the narrow preference. At a slightly bigger price, John Gosden’s Cymric looks worth a second look having shown a good attitude to get his head in front at Sandown last month. He looked as though he would win comfortably a furlong out but was challenged strongly before rallying to the cause and winning with a head to spare. Given his American pedigree I would imagine that the faster the ground is the better for this colt and connections must have thought plenty of him to run him in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot on his debut. This race clearly demands a further step forward but at around 7/1, I don’t think he will be too far away. MY ADVICE RECORDER – 1pt win @ 5/1 (SkyBet, Paddy Power) 3.05 York – Betway Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) On the back of his performance at Royal Ascot where he landed the King Edward VII Stakes, plenty of people will be expecting Balios to run well having been dropped back in Group 2 company. However, a startling statistic is that the last horse to carry a penalty in this race was Pentire who won the race for Geoff Wragg in 1995. He was also only fifth of six in the Grand Prix De Paris next time and I think there will be better 4/1 shots this week. Of course the colt doesn’t know that he is carrying more weight than the others but with history in mind, I am happy to cast my eye elsewhere. In front of him in France was William Haggas’ Storm The Stars who despite having plenty of racing this term has held his form well. He has been placed in two Derbies and as I mentioned earlier he was third in France last time, beaten just over three lengths by the winner. I have no doubt that he is a talented performer but I don’t think it is unfair to say that he is a little bit below the likes of Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs, although they do not line up here this afternoon. He is likely to run to a very good standard once again here and I expect him to confirm his previous form with Giovanni Canaletto. The other two O’Brien runners look like real stayers and it will be interesting to see how the race pans out but I wouldn’t expect to see Storm The Stars out of the first three at the finish. However, in terms of a bet I feel it is worth taking a chance on Richard Hannon’s TASHAAR who did us a good turn when winning at Goodwood at the end of last month. That was just his second start and he won with a lot more in hand than the one and a half length winning margin suggested that day. This is clearly a different level to what he faced there but he travelled well and showed a good turn of foot to put the race to bed in a matter of strides. This 380,000 guineas yearling has taken a little time to come to hand but he seems to be making up for it now and looks a colt going places. He will need to step forward on what he has done so far but he has done nothing wrong in his career to date and I fancy to spring a small surprise here. MY Advice TASHAAR – 1pt win @ 9/2 (William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power) 3.40 York – Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) The feature race on Day One is the Juddmonte International and we look set to be treated to a vintage renewal of the race with three of the four runners from the Classic generation likely to play a big hand in the outcome of the race. In my opinion, I think GOLDEN HORN is the most likely winner of the race and comes in here with an undefeated record from five starts. He was mightily impressive over course and distance in the Dante earlier in the year as he showed a devastating turn of foot. He used that same tool in the Derby next time when once again beating stablemate Jack Hobbs, who went onto gain compensation in the Irish Derby. Against older rivals for the first time, he just about made all to win the Eclipse, powering away in the closing stages to beat The Grey Gatsby by three and a half lengths at the line. I think his combination of stamina and a turn of foot make him a very difficult horse to beat and he won’t be doing his own donkey work as connections have supplemented Dick Doughtywylie in order to fulfil pace making duties. I believe that this will be the toughest test he has faced to date and whilst I don’t share the belief that he is in the same league as Frankel, he is still one of the better middle distance horses that we have seen for a while. It is likely to be one of the races of the season and although I think it might be close, I think he should have enough to get the job done and maintain his winning sequence. The one most likely to give him most to think about is Gleneagles who has conquered all before him in the mile division this year, winning both the English and Irish versions of the 2000 Guineas before continuing his winning run in the St James Palace at Royal Ascot. I thought they missed a trick by not running him in the Sussex Stakes as top-class three-year-olds are often tough to beat and whilst Solow is clearly a very good horse, I think he would have struggled to beat Gleneagles. Apart from his debut and a disqualification in France, Aidan O’Brien’s colt is unbeaten in seven starts and his nature of not doing a lot in front means that I don’t think we have seen the best of him yet. He tries a mile and a quarter for the first time but being by Galileo I don’t see the extra couple of furlongs being an inconvenience. He has an excellent attitude and is already proven at this level and he can ask some serious questions of the favourite here. I should also mention Time Test who although yet to tackle Group 1 company is entitled to take his chance following an impressive victory in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot. He clearly thrived over the winter and since stepping up in trip he has looked a very talented performer. He turned his latest race into a procession and if we take Peacock as a marker, he wouldn’t have too much to find with Golden Horn. I don’t think it is as simple as that but he is a three-year-old who is improving all the time and having shown a potent turn of foot on fast ground already this season, he can show up well on his first attempt at this level. MY Advice GOLDEN HORN – 2pts win @ 4/6 (Paddy Power) 4.20 York – Fine Equinity Stakes (Handicap) Trainer David O’Meara once again showed just how good he is with recruits from other yards when getting Big Thunder to get his head in front on his stable debut here last month. He had previously been in the care of Sir Mark Prescott and having been progressive as a three-year-old, has struggled to go on from that in the last couple of seasons. However, the change of scenery seems to have done him good and he just about made all to win under Danny Tudhope last time. He was always doing enough to hold off his rivals and having only been raised 4lb on the back of that effort, he should be thereabouts once again. One slight negative would be that he is drawn in stall 14 which could make it difficult for him to get over and lead but it would be dangerous to dismiss on the back of just one factor and he gets a deserved place on the shortlist. At the foot of the weights sits Tony Martin’s Heartbreak City who having been well-backed on his return to the flat, could finish only third at the Galway Festival last time. He was a little short of room as the field turned for home and would have finished nearer with a clear run although I think to say he would have won would be stretching it a little. Having said that he has only gone up 2lb and with just 8st 4lb on his back he could anything. He hasn’t had too much racing so it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that he could still have improvement in him and there was plenty to like about his latest effort. The yard’s runners always require a second look when sent over here and although he has plenty to find on form with some of the others, I would not be surprised to see him hit the frame. However, my preference is for Lucy Wadham’s NOBLE SILK who is a pretty consistent stayer and was last seen finishing fourth in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting. He won a Haydock handicap over two miles off a mark of 91 last season and has since been competitive off slightly higher marks. He hit the front over 2m4f last time and probably just didn’t see the trip out as well as the others and this drop in trip should play into favour. A multiple winner on the all-weather, the forecast quicker ground should suit him well and from stall 4 he looks to have plenty going in his favour. Graham Lee has been booked to ride him and despite conceding weight to all but the top horse in the field, I feel he has a strong each-way chance at around the 12/1 mark. MY Advice NOBLE SILK – 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (Paddy Power) 4.55 York – Betway Stakes (Nursery Handicap) Day 1 finishes with a nursery over six furlongs and at the time of writing it is 8/1 the field and that shows us how open the race is. However, as with the earlier sprint I am hopeful that the draw will help us to remove some of the horses from our thinking by focusing on those drawn in double figure stalls. One such colt is Reputation trained by John Quinn who has made both of his starts to date over this course and distance. There were signs of encouragement to be taken from his first run here where he kept on from the back to finish sixth and he took a big step forward to get off the mark next time. Still slowly away he got up in the dying strides to land the spoils here and the race is starting to work out well with the second, fourth and fifth all coming out and winning next time. A mark of 80 doesn’t seem overly harsh and it sees him sit towards the bottom of the weights, with Jamie Spencer an eye-catching jockey booking. He is drawn in stall 19 which seems to be the perfect position and the fitting of cheekpieces should eke out further improvement from him. The yard’s two-year-olds had a slow start to the year but are starting to find a bit of form now and they look to have a good chance of landing a good prize here. Richard Fahey is no stranger to success on the Knavesmire and having landed this race with Mary’s Daughter in 2012 and he sends just one filly here this year, Mayfair Lady. The Holy Roman Emperor filly has improved with each of her three runs and on her second start, she was only beaten by Mr Lupton who went onto finish second in the Super Sprint at Newbury. She couldn’t have been more impressive than when getting off the mark at the third attempt last time, drawing clear to beat Godolphin’s Fast Enough by seven lengths at the line. That colt was a ready winner at Brighton subsequently which shows the form is quite strong but the filly did drift over to the Stands side at Pontefract last time which is a slight concern. Having said that to win by seven lengths anywhere is impressive and she has done little wrong in her career so far. She will need to settle better stepping up to six furlongs for the first time but she is drawn on the right side in stall 15 and looks likely to be thereabouts at the business end of the race. However, my slight preference is for Tim Easterby’s QUICK N QUIRKY who despite being sent off at 25/1 on debut in June, showed a good attitude to get off the mark at the first attempt. Next time she faced a rival who had finished less than a length behind Buratino and having travelled well into the race and challenged the gelding she just didn’t have the class to beat him. Having said that she wasn’t knocked about too much and this looks a slightly easier task than she faced that day. She is open to further improvement and having been professional on her first two starts, this looks a good race for her. I don’t think there is a great deal between her and the Fahey filly but she is proven at the trip and has settled well in the past and that could make the difference in a race of such fine margins. MY Advice QUICK N QUIRKY – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)
Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 15th
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5.30 Cheltenham – Close Brothers Novices´ Handicap Chase
Whilst the Irish raiders are expected to have a successful week on the whole, their recent record in this contest suggests that we are better to steer clear of them in this race. Tom Taafe’s Finger Onthe Pulse was the only winner for the Emerald Isle in 2008 which is bad news for their three representatives this year.
To deal with them individually, Henry De Bromhead sends Domesday Book over having chased home Douvan in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown in January. He was well on top when winning at the second time of asking in December at Limerick but he has yet to tackle 2m4f over fences and he looks high enough in the weights judged on what he has done so far. Willie Mullins’ McKinley finished just ahead of him at Navan in December and was also found wanting when stepped into Grade 1 company last time. He won a Grade 1 over 2m4f when running over hurdles last season so the trip should be fine and he looks the pick of the trio. As for Bridgets Pet, Alan Fleming’s nine-year-old is one of the most experienced in the field and beat the smart Morning Assembly at Fairyhouse last time, albeit over an inadequate trip for the nine-year-old.
With only 4lb splitting the top and bottom horses in the field, it is unlikely that weight will make too much difference; therefore those towards the head of the weights are at less of an advantage than would normally be the case.
The ante-post favourite Aloomomo carries 11st 10lb and has been raised 11lb since winning at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting. The six-year-old was very progressive in the early part of the season and comes here having won his last three starts over the larger obstacles. He ran over hurdles in February to prepare him for this assignment and was far from disgraced, finishing third behind two smart rivals in Yala Enki and Mr Mix. His trainer is confident that his ascent up the weights isn’t insurmountable and whilst he is short enough at the prices, he is a must for any shortlist.
One thing worth keeping an eye on throughout the week are horses in first-time headgear and one horse and the horse at the top of the weights Ballyalton has been fitted with cheekpieces for the first time here. He was a smart novice hurdler a couple of years ago, with his season culminating in finishing second behind Faugheen in the Neptune here. He subsequently missed the following season and it is probably fair to say that he has been a little disappointing over the larger obstacles thus far.
His best effort came when chasing home Aso at Market Rasen in January over 2m5f and this intermediate trip looks his optimum. His jumping is obviously a concern having fallen last time but the sounder surface and the aides should sharpen him up. It is hard to say how well-handicapped he is at present but a return to anything like his best hurdles form would mean he is thrown in here off 140.
Colin Tizzard’s Fourth Act is another fitted with cheekpieces for the first time and comes here on the back of a wide-margin success at Wincanton last time. He went up 11lb for that win which has seen him sneak in at the foot of the weights here and like Ballyalton, I’m sure connections will be hoping that the cheekpieces bring about further improvement. The market probably has him right as one of the outsiders however.
Another in first-time headgear is Thomas Brown who wore cheekpieces last time but now gets blinkers fitted on the back of a far from straightforward display. He never seemed to be going at Kempton last time before unseating his rider and it isn’t the first time that he has shown signs of temperament. He was well-backed a couple of weeks ago for that race but his attitude would be a concern for me and I think it is worth looking elsewhere.
Perhaps it would be better to look towards Tom George’s Double Shuffle who finished ahead of Fourth Act when winning at Ludlow in December. He is only a six-year-old and conceded 11lb to the Tizzard horse that day and having won by three-quarters of a length it is hard to see the form being reversed with only 1lb between them here. He had two spins around Cheltenham in the Autumn and the Spring ground is likely to be right up his street. At the age of six, he is entitled to still be improving, especially having had only three starts over fences and with six-year-olds having won the last three renewals, he looks to have plenty going in his favour.
So too does the improving Javert who is two from three over fences thus far and whose only blip came when unseating Sean Bowen at Newbury in November. The seven-year-old has been a revelation since being fitted with a hood at the beginning of this season and the nature of his latest win at Doncaster suggested that a further rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him. He seemed better for the step up in trip last time and given how well he jumped I would have no concerns about him around here.
If there is to be a trends buster which wins this race then it could be Dan Skelton’s Willow’s Saviour who won the race in which Ballyalton fell back in November. He was no match for Ar Mad in Grade 1 company next time and basically had an exercise gallop at Fakenham last month when winning hard held under Harry Skelton. He was a good hurdler a couple of years ago and I believe that this race has been the target for some time. At the age of nine, he would be the oldest winner in the last decade but for all the negatives, I still find it hard to see him finishing out of the frame.
If there is to be a massive shock then two at bigger prices which catch my eye are Killala Quay and Five In A Row. The former has had eight starts over fences and despite jumping to his left last time, he still managed to find enough in the closing stages to get his head in front. He should be suited by going the other way and with Richard Johnson keeping the ride, he could make a bold bid from the front. Five In A Row has won three of his last four starts over fences and got up close home to beat Sametegal at Musselburgh in February. That rival has since come out and won a big prize and having snuck in at the foot of the weights here, Brian Ellison’s eight-year-old looks a lively outsider.
Overall, I don’t think there is much between Aloomomo and Ballyalton, whilst the improving pair Javert and Double Shuffle look to have plenty more to come at this early stage of their chasing careers. If I was pushed I would probably have to go with Willow’s Saviour who rarely runs a bad race and his shrewd connections have lined this race up for some time.
Shortlist
Willow’s Saviour
Aloomomo
Ballyalton
Javert
Double Shuffle