[Gigginstown House Stud to remove horses from Willie Mullins]

Gigginstown House Stud are set to remove around 60 horses from Willie Mullins following a reported disagreement about the trainer raising his fees

[Saturday Racing (Scoop6 etc..)]

2.00 Doncaster – At The Races Champagne Stakes (Group 2)

Not exactly a vintage renewal of the Champagne Stakes but there look to be some potentially smart performers in the six runner-field, with William Haggas’ Rivet heading the market. The Fastnet Rock colt showed plenty of inexperience on his debut at Ascot but he improved for that run to win the Convivial Maiden at York next time. He picked up impressively in the closing stages to draw clear and win by three and a quarter lengths and it is little surprise that connections have opted to step him into Group company now. It is hard to get a handle on the form but it is a little concerning that three of the horses who finished behind him have been beaten since. I don’t think it wise to take that too literally as he was a ready winner on the day but I do think he is short enough at 11/10 and is worth taking on.

Instead it may be best to side with THUNDER SNOW who was last seen when finishing a close second in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. This looks just about the best form on offer having split War Decree and Boynton on that occasion and for me, he should be favourite for this contest. The one concern would be that we haven’t seen him since then and the sickness that Saeed Bin Suroor’s stable has suffered with has been well-documented in recent weeks. However, the yard have had runners in the last couple of weeks and have been amongst the winners so I don’t see any reason to doubt this colt’s wellbeing for this assignment. The stable have won this race twice in the last decade and I fancy this Helmet colt to make it three on Saturday.

However, this is far from a two-horse race and a case can also be made for Majeste who got off the mark at the second attempt at Newbury in July. Following that success, his trainer Richard Hannon indicated that they would work back from the National Stakes, however as that is on Sunday it would seem that this race has been chosen instead. That could be down to the fact that he hasn’t run since July but his trainer believes that he will improve for the step up to seven furlongs and this stable also have an enviable record in the race.

Last year’s winning stable of Charlie Appleby are also represented as D’Bai bids to follow up his narrow success at Newmarket at the end of July. He was all out to hold on from a promising newcomer on that occasion and that is perhaps why connections have reached for the cheekpieces for the first time. He has plenty of Group 1 entries later in the season and whilst he will need to step forward from his maiden, it is still early days and there should be further improvement to come.
Even the two outsiders of the field can’t be totally ruled out as Tommy Taylor was far from disgraced when fourth behind his stablemate in the Acomb last time. This looks a tougher contest but it took him a while to get going on that occasion and he will need to be sharper to figure here.

John Ryan’s Grey Britain also defied odds of 50/1 to finish a good fifth in the Gimcrack last time, leading early on before dropping away in the closing stages. I think a step up to seven furlongs should suit as he just couldn’t quicken up as well as the main protagonists and he can run better than his sizeable odds suggest here.

MY Advice

THUNDER SNOW – 1pt win @ 11/4 (bet365, Ladbrokes)

 
2.35 Doncaster – Ladbrokes Portland Handicap (HANDICAP BREAKERS RACE)

The Portland Handicap can often be one of the most competitive races of the racing calendar and this year’s renewal is no exception. Hopefully the trends will help us solve the puzzle and it is therefore little surprise that horses arriving here in form have tended to do well in recent years. In fact six of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fifth on their most recent outing including five of the last seven winners. Exactly half of the field sit on the right side of this trend with some of those missing out including the likes of Double Up, Red Pike and Shamshon.

In terms of age, there is no doubt that the five-year-olds are the ones to follow having accounted for six winners in the last decade. A good sign for the sextet of five-year-olds in this year’s line-up (Double Up, Red Pike, Lexington Abbey, Shamshon, Highland Acclaim and Mukaynis).  I also feel obliged to mention the recent poor records of three-year-olds, whose last victory came courtesy of Compton Banker in 2000. Therefore the sole three-year-old in this year’s field Mont Kiara will be hoping for a change of fortune this time around.

The affect of the draw and the reasons for it are subjects which are widely debated among racing circles. However, in terms of numbers there is no doubt that in this case it has paid off to be drawn high, with horses drawn 12 or above having landed seven of the last nine renewals. In a field of 22, this means that just less than half of the field are drawn on the ‘right’ side including the likes of Highland Acclaim, Judicial and Confessional.

Weight can often play an important part in races such as this one and in the main, horses with lower weights have tended to run well over the years. 9st 5lb appears to be the cut-off point as only three recent winners had carried more than that to victory. Of this year’s field that eliminates the top five as they appear on the racecard, that’s from Double Up down to Bowson Fred.

Closely linked to weight is the official rating of each horse and we can cut down the field a little more when we consider that seven of the last ten winners were rated between 95 and 100. Applying that to this year’s field gives us the ten horses from Pipers Note down to Captain Colby as well as the three-year-old Mont Kiara.
The final factor to consider is the betting and with only two winning favourites in the last decade, this is not a race in which taking a short price is prudent. Also with three 20/1 winners in recent years it also looks like a good race to take a chance on one at a bigger price. At the time of writing Captain Colby is the favourite at around 8/1 but with the market likely to fluctuate before the off it is best to keep an open mind.

Shortlist

RED PIKE – 5/6

Judicial – 5/6

Soie D’Leau – 5/6

Highland Acclaim – 5/6
 

MY PREDICTION 

When we take all of the trends into account all of the twenty-two runners miss at least one of the trends but the one who comes out best is RED PIKE. Bryan Smart’s five-year-old won over six furlongs at Doncaster last August and has been running well of late, suggesting it might not be long before he finds his way into the Winner’s Enclosure. He misses the form trend having finished eighth last time, however it is worth bearing in mind that was in the Stewards’ Cup and he was only beaten just less than three lengths at the line. He was only collared late on that occasion so the drop back to five and a half furlongs should suit and with the Smart team in fine form at present, I think he can run a big race here.

Judicial also makes the shortlist having got back to winning ways under a patient ride from Graham Lee last time at Chester. The strong early pace suited the four-year-old and he quickened up well in the closing stages to win with a length to spare. He just misses out on the full house on the age trend but it is worth noting that four-year-olds have taken two of the last three renewals. He is not the easiest of customers to predict but he is talented and if things fall right for him, he shouldn’t be too far away.

Kristin Stubbs’ Soie D’Leau is another who arrives in winning form, having got the better of Confessional at Haydock last weekend. This race was nominated as his target immediately afterwards and despite a 4lb rise in the weights, it is hard to rule him out. His trainer believes the extra half furlong will suit and he could run well at a bigger price.

The final member of the shortlist is Highland Acclaim who was fifth in the race last year, albeit off a 7lb higher mark. David O’Meara’s five-year-old struggled for much of last season but he ended a losing run of over two years when winning at Epsom at the end of August. On his best form he still looks well-handicapped and if he is on a going day then he should be right in the mix.

MY Advice

RED PIKE – 1pt e/w @ 18/1(bet365, William Hill)

  
3.10 Doncaster – Saint Gobain Weber Park Stakes (Group 2)

Far from a vintage renewal, the big-hitters seem to have shunned this Group 2 which could leave it in the lap of recent Hungerford Stakes scorer RICHARD PANKHURST. The lightly-raced four-year-old had looked out of sorts in his pair of runs earlier in the campaign but travelled like the winner throughout at Newbury before readily asserting to deny Home of The Brave by a length. He has always had a high level of ability but it’s been getting him to the track fit that has been the issue and he eventually seems to be back to the level he showed when destroying the field in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot two seasons back. He does have a penalty to carry for his latest success but with the promise of more to come now he is back firing, 3lb shouldn’t be enough to see him reeled in by the field here.

Fellow Godolphin runner Toormore is another who has to concede weight to the majority of the field due to his win in the bet365 Mile at the beginning of the campaign. He has remained in decent nick all campaign but has shown his frailties up against more progressive rivals and it may just be that he has to play second fiddle to the up-and-coming challengers at this stage of his career. Nevertheless, he has some of the best form on show having finished in the frame in both the Queen Anne and the Sussex Stakes this year and shouldn’t be far away.

The Irish have landed two of the last three renewals of the Park Stakes and Aidan O’Brien has a pair of representatives to try and keep up their good recent record. Cougar Mountain would look to hold his best chance on paper on the back of his runners-up effort in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes at the Curragh a month ago. He has proven consistent rather than spectacular though and will likely have to settle for only minor honours at best. Seamie Heffernan’s mount The Happy Prince is an interesting contender having found a purple patch of form recently. The four-year-old finished second in the Listed Abergwaun Stakes at Tipperary over five furlongs just over a fortnight ago before running out an impressive winner of a Naas minor event last week. Connections have always thought that he had something better to offer but he still has a lot to find here and steps back up to seven furlongs despite never having won over that far before.

Breton Rock and Adaay are very closely matched on their 1-2 in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket back in June. The former finished third in last year’s contest behind Limato and has largely held his form well since. He does have a below-par effort to overcome in the Group 3 Superior Mile Stakes at Haydock last Saturday though. The latter has bounced back to form recently and was a solid fourth in the Group 2 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh in July. However, he has now gone over a year without getting his head in front and the frame may again be the best he can hope for. Both horses chances would be enhanced if the ground was to turn soft.

An interesting contender is Buckstay who has progressed through the handicap ranks to Group company only recently. The six-year-old finished close-up in the Victoria Cup, Wokingham and Bunbury Cup earlier in the campaign before running a blinder to finish fourth behind Dutch Connection in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. That is likely his level though a recent confidence booster in a Chelmsford conditions event can only enhance his chances.

MY Advice

RICHARD PANKHURST – 1pt win @ 2/1 (General)

3.45 Doncaster – Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1)

It’s the final classic of the season and while we’d be hard-pushed to rival the drama of last season’s epic, we could well see one of the best winners of the contest in recent times if the market is correct. Aidan O’Brien’s IDAHO comes into the race off the back of a most impressive success in the Great Voltigeur, powering home as much the best horse in the race at the end of the one and a half mile contest. The way he travelled, quickened and put the race to bed marked him down as a very high-class colt, if we didn’t know that already after his third and second places behind Harzand in the Derby and the Irish Derby respectively. He easily reeled in his stablemate, Housesofparliament, after that rival had set the pace and it’s unlikely that form will be reversed on this likely slower ground, even though that rival won’t have to make the running again here with trailblazing O’Brien third-string Sword Fighter in the lineup. While Housesofparliament looks as if he’ll stay all day at the one pace, IDAHO has that touch of class that allows him to quicken as well as stay, so even though he doesn’t have the assistance of Ryan Moore, he has a short-priced favourite’s chance under Seamie Heffernan and is very hard to oppose.

If there was one not from the O’Brien three that could upset the applecart, it might just be John Gosden’s Muntahaa, who won a Chester Listed contest last time out and was a staying-on third to Across The Stars (3rd in the Voltigeur subsequently) in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’s an improving stayer and even though he’ll have to take a considerable step forward from Chester, where he beat the 96-rated Duretto by a short head, the longer trip and softish ground could be ideal.
Of ‘the rest’, Ventura Storm comes into the race in excellent form, with two wins on the bounce, beating fellow entry Ormito well in a Listed race at Hamilton while giving him 4lbs and then comfortably taking a Group 3 in France over an extended mile and a half. Any ease in the ground won’t be a worry for this Richard Hannon-trained colt and if he can stay the trip well enough, he could surprise a few at odds of 25/1.

Harbour Law just failed to overhaul Sword Fighter in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and you might expect those two to be relatively close once again here, but the fact Sword Fighter is O’Brien’s third-choice in the race judging by the betting, shows you how much Laura Mongan’s colt will have to find to take a hand.
Finally, Mick Channon has kept the faith with Harrison all year despite a few disappointing runs from a horse he thought could have a chance in the Derby at the start of the season and if he keeps improving and proves he can stay the trip, he could get closer to Idaho than the eight length defeat in the Voltigeur and a little closer to Housesofparliament than when he was one and a quarter lengths behind in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket, but he’s obviously got plenty to do to be considered as a genuine threat.

MY Advice

IDAHO – 2pts win @ 4/5 (William Hill)

 
4.20 Doncaster – Champagne Pommery Nursery Handicap Stakes.

This looks a pretty competitive heat but one really stands out and that is HARBOUR MASTER. Jamie Osborne’s charge has looked an altogether different animal since stepping up in trip and tackling a mile for the first time here shouldn’t prove too much of an issue. He broke his maiden in decent style at the fourth time of asking at Lingfield in July and although that didn’t look the strongest of races, he confirmed that he is a colt on the up with a dominant display in a Sandown nursery next time. Connections have been talking big things for him and while he still has a way to go, the fact that he holds an entry in the Royal Lodge suggests that his best days could be ahead of him. It will be no easy task conceding weight all round but he still looks like the one to beat.

Khalidi could be the one to give him most to think about if replicating the form that saw him land a Goodwood maiden a fortnight ago. He had shown some useful form in a couple of decent Newmarket maidens prior to that and seemed to relish the step up to a mile last time. He is another with lofty aspirations (holds a Racing Post Trophy entry) but he did get the run of the race in a small-field last time and may not be able to dominate so easily in this.

Bottom weight Mount Moriah has the benefit of receiving weight all round and was a most impressive winner of a Kempton maiden at the back end of last month. Already gelded, he showed a good attitude to tow the field along before kicking for home with a decent turn of foot. The form of that win probably doesn’t equate to much but he has only been allocated a mark of 73 and should prove competitive.

Maths Prize has already shown a decent level of form and although not the flashiest of types, he has still managed to get the job done the last twice. The Queen’s runner has been hit with a 4lb rise for prevailing by a neck in a 3-runner nursery at Ripon last month, which looks fair considering he was unsuited by the track and he is certainly bred to be pretty smart, for all he should come into his own over further down the line.

The least experience runner in the field is Stuart Wlliams’ Stellar Surprise who arrives here on the back of a debut win in a Chepstow maiden last month. She was well supported that day and rewarded punters as she ran out a cosy winner, belying her inexperience as she looked well at home and did everything Oisin Murphy asked of her. An opening mark of 77 could well be on the lenient side for the well-bred filly and she is another who still holds an entry in the Racing Post Trophy.

The only other filly in the line-up, Temerity, has probably the strongest form on show here having finished runner-up in a similar event at Newcastle a couple of weeks ago. However, she was quite comprehensively beaten that day and has been hit with a 2lb rise for that effort. When you take into account the loss of Adam McNamara’s very useful 5lb claim, that puts her on 7lb worse terms here.

Andrew Balding’s Drochaid won a close affair at Haydock over a month ago and although the runner-up Sofia’s Rock has since let the form down, the third-placed Procurator scored in a Goodwood nursery off a mark of 77 subsequently to boost his chances here. He has been steadily progressive in four runs and showed a really good attitude to get up in a ding-dong battle last time out. He is a bit more battle-hardened and streetwise than a few of his rivals and that could land him in good stead.

MY Advice

HARBOUR MASTER – 1.5pts win @ 7/2 (bet365, Ladbrokes)

 
4.50 Doncaster – Napoleons Casinos & Restaurants Handicap.

Heading the weights for this £15k handicap is the 2015 Cambridgeshire winner, Third Time Lucky, who returned to form on his last outing for trainer Richard Fahey, finishing less than two lengths behind Firmament in a very competitive heat over a mile at York. It was a much better effort after two disappointing runs off a mark of 102 to start the season and the drop to 100 seemed to help him find some form. He is still 5lb higher than for his Newmarket success in September last year though and may need the handicapper to relent a couple more pounds if he’s to find himself back on a winning mark, but he should run a decent race here nonetheless with trip and ground in his favour.

Breakable comes into the race on a hat-trick for Tim Easterby, but as with most horses who have won twice in quick succession, the handicapper has had a big say, raising him 6lb to a mark of 96 after the second of those wins. It’s by far the highest mark he’s ever had to cope with and this looks like a tougher race than he’s used to, but he’s in form and won’t mind any cut in the ground, so shouldn’t be ruled out lightly.

Luca Cumani’s three-year-old, Banksea, has run in many of this year’s big festivals, performing with plenty of credit on a couple of occasions, including over ten furlongs at the July Festival and then over a mile when a close second last time out in a competitive event at York’s Ebor Festival. He’s gone up to a mark of 99 now, 5lbs higher than for that last run, but he did look a colt that was on the upgrade so it may not be enough to completely anchor him. The major worry would be the ground if this was over a mile and two furlongs, but a bit of cut over this galloping mile could actually help his chances so he’s definitely one to consider in an open contest.

Trained by James Fanshawe, Up In Lights is a very lightly-raced four-year-old with just seven starts to her name, but comes into this off the back off a nice win in a Newmarket handicap over the now 87-rated Yeah Baby Yeah. That was a decent effort and it adds to the list of good, solid performances from this Makfi filly – she’s one that stays at least a mile and handles cut in the ground, so has to hold claims, but you just wonder whether she’s good enough to trouble a few of the possibly better-handicapped, younger brigade here.

Three-year-olds have won four of the last nine runnings of the race and Mark Johnston’s King’s Pavilion falls into that category and interestingly, has almost three times the amount of runs under his belt than Up In Lights, who is a year older. He clearly won’t lack for experience but I have a feeling that he’d be better at seven furlongs on this type of track, even though the softer surface should help. On his best form, he’d have a shout off a mark of 92, but the biggest worry is that he’s extremely inconsistent and his last two runs haven’t contained much promise at all. However, Johnston is excellent at getting his handicappers to peak at the bigger occasions, so he could well bounce back.

But the one I like in this field is Mick Channon’s three-year-old filly, CZABO. She was touted as a 1,000 Guineas filly not so long ago and despite missing that race, ran respectably in soft ground to finish fourth in the Irish version, behind Jet Setting, Minding and Now Or Never. She then went on to win a Listed race at Deauville, defeating Andre Fabre’s highly-rated Come Alive quite comfortably and despite being well-beaten in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, she’s clearly a classy filly on her day. Now Or Never was fourth in that race, so CZABO clearly didn’t run to form that day, else she would have been a lot closer and was given a nice long break as a result. She won on her return from an eight-month break between her two and three-year-old seasons so she’s clearly fine after a lay-off and will appreciate the probable bit of cut in the ground. This galloping mile should suit her well and I’m expecting a very bold showing with Champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle providing considerable assistance to this generously-priced filly.

MY Advice

CZABO – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365)

 .
5.25 Doncaster – EBF Breeders’ Series Fillies’ Handicap Stakes.

With a hefty 9lb pull with their older rivals, the trio of three-year-olds here look to be the ones to focus on. Turning The Table looks to have her work cut out running from 1lb out of the weights but MOORSIDE arrives on more favourable terms and could turn out to be a class above her rivals here. Charlie Hills’ charge only shed her maiden tag at the fifth time of asking at Kempton early last month but had shown enough prior to that to suggest that she has a bit about her. She was a tad green on debut when finishing a close third behind subsequent Group 3 Musidora Stakes winner So Mi Dar and ran into one when filling the same place behind unbeaten Royal Ascot winner Persuasive at Kempton a month later. Despite not breaking her duck, she was put away for the winter and returned with a daunting task in the Listed Cheshire Oaks. She was quietly fancied in some quarters and ran a blinder to push odds-on hotshot Somehow all the way to the line. In truth, she hasn’t particularly kicked on since then but she remains fairly unexposed the well-bred daughter of Champs Elysees can land her second victory here.

Renfrew Street rates as the biggest danger as the choice of title-chasing Silvestre De Sousa. She has had a busy campaign and has proved most consistent bar a rare below-par effort at Ayr in June, possibly unsuited by making the running in a slowly run race. She ran a blinder when a close-up fourth in the Lanark Silver Bell on her penultimate start before staying on well into second at Ascot last Friday. She is clearly no world-beater but with a handy weight-for-age allowance back against her own sex, she can make her presence felt.

The older brigade look a fairly exposed bunch with the exception of Luca Cumani’s lightly-raced four-year-old Bess of Hardwick. The daughter of Dansili finished third on her belated racecourse debut last May in what turned out be a pretty strong race and duly opened her account at the very next time of asking in October later in the year. She has had a few setbacks though and was easy to back when bombing out in a handicap at Ascot in July. She produced a marginally better effort when fourth at Salisbury latest and has been eased 1lb by the handicapper but she shapes as though needing a stiffer test than 1m4f.

MY Advice

MOORSIDE – 1.5pts win @ 6/1 (Paddy Power)

 
6.00 Doncaster – Harriet De-Vere Powell Handicap.

Despite the small field for this race, it looks a decent encounter with many horses either justifiably rated in three figures or with more than enough potential to rate that high. Rated 102 is Godolphin’s Gold Trail, who was last seen finishing just a length away from Educate in the John Smith’s Cup at York off 1lb lower. He could well have won that day, but just seemed to get a little tired towards the end of his first start for eleven months, so you’d expect he’d have come on and will be fitter for this encounter. He’ll appreciate this return to a mile and a half, the trip over which he last won and the ground shouldn’t be a worry unless there’s a real deluge – he probably wouldn’t want conditions too soft. The worries are that, off a mark of 102, there isn’t much room for manoeuvre and he would probably prefer a bigger field and the strong gallop that almost guarantees, but nevertheless he holds very solid claims in an open race.

Mark Johnston’s middle-distance handicappers always need a good amount of respect afforded to them and his Stars Over The Sea looks to hold great claims on his consistent performances over the past few months. His close second to Cymro at Haydock last time out off a mark of 102 was a decent effort and showed not only that he has the ability to handle this kind of mark, but stayed strongly on a rain-softened surface. He’ll most likely try to dominate from the front under George Baker and if the jockey can give him a ‘Quest For More’ style ride, he’ll have a great chance, even though he’s another who doesn’t have much give in his mark.

However, Felix Mendelssohn was just half a length behind Johnston’s horse in the race at Haydock and races off 1lb better terms here, so has every chance of reversing the form. It’s taken a while for him to rediscover the kind of form he showed on his two runs when he was with Aidan O’Brien as a three-year-old, but this lightly-raced five-year-old has finally hit the ground running and might just be ready to strike. A mark of 95 should be workable for the son of Galileo and Jamie Spencer is the best around for a horse with his hold-up style, so even though he’s a risky proposition, he’s certainly worth keeping a close eye on.

Ajman Bridge is the oldest competitor in the race at six, but is also the contender who comes into the race after being given the most generous treatment from the handicapper. He’s been dropped 5lb to a mark of 99 after two disappointing efforts in handicaps for new trainer Roger Varian and that’s his lowest since May 2015. He was a close second to Arab Dawn in the 2015 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot off a mark of 100, so there’s certainly a chance here to make hay if the ability is still there. A first-time set of cheekpieces could well combine with the drop in the weights to revive this previously consistent handicapper but even given his tempting mark, it’s a risk given how poorly he’s gone so far for Varian.

Three-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals and the only representative from that age group this time around comes from Charlie Hills’ stable. High Grounds has only had five runs and looks a big, raw type of horse who will need time to fulfil his potential, not to mention that a mark of 95 looks harsh on what he’s done so far in his career. Having said that, the son of High Chaparral could well have any amount of improvement to come and carrying just 8st 10lb with the assistance of the Champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa gives him a squeak of a chance, however small.

The other three of the last six renewals have been won by four year olds with a mark of 89, 91 and 95, so ARGUS fits the bill very well off 91 and with any amount of improvement still to come. Ralph Beckett’s stable is in good form at the moment and with Rich Legacy and Simple Verse winning in these colours under Oisin Murphy on Thursday, it’s a good idea to follow the in-form pair. Although on the face of it, the lightly-raced son of Rip Van Winkle didn’t put in a great effort in finishing sixth on his seasonal reappearance at York, he ran very well for a long way before tiring in the final furlong. He should come on plenty for that run and a mark of 91 could be lenient judging on his good win over C&D in October 2015 off a mark of 89. The horse who was second that day, Mistiroc, is now rated 96 and already has two good wins to his name this season, so it’s safe to say that Argus should have more to come. Beckett always had high hopes for this colt, saying he considered him a stakes horse for this season, and with ground, trip and a possibly lenient mark all in his favour, he has a great chance to prove it here in a race that looks to be crying out for an improver to go past the consistent handicappers.

MY Advice:

ARGUS 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365, William Hill)

[Saturday Racing (Inc Scoop6, York Ebor etc..)]

1.45 York – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes (Handicap)

In yet another competitive middle-distance handicap, the three-year-olds  look to have an advantage given they’re receiving an 8lb weight allowance, but when you look at the past nine runnings of the race, no three-year-old has taken advantage of that allowance yet. Scarlet Dragon, and the Mark Johnston-trained pair of Ode To Evening and Montsarrat all fall into this category – the former was just behind Stargazer at Goodwood and has been raised 2lbs as a result, Ode To Evening has been running very well recently, but looked held off a mark of 102 at Haydock last time out and could have done his winning for now and Montsarrat is a conundrum that looks like he’ll win a decent race like this soon if connections can figure out the right trip for him, but whose inexperience could cost him here. Unfortunately Stargazer was declared a non-runner on Friday morning as he was the one three-year-old that stood out to me and could have bucked that trend.

From the older contingent, Awake My Soul appeals as the type to run well here after coming slowly down the weights in the past 12 months. He’s now running from a mark of 96, which he’s run well off the last twice – a close fourth and third at York and Newmarket – and he seems to be coming to form now. The switch of stable from David O’Meara to Tom Tate is an interesting move and he could well run a big race at a track he’s always gone well at. He’s 25/1 at the time of writing and, even though he hasn’t won for the best part of two years, could be a decent each-way bet as he’ll handle any ground and has plenty of experience of this kind of contest.

Four-year-olds have won this race six times in the last nine years and it is from this age group that I think there’s some decent value and big contenders to be found. Frankie Dettori’s services have been enlisted by Ed Dunlop for his gelding Dark Red, who went on a streak of three straight wins to start this season before finishing fourth in a competitive contest at Epsom back in June. The Dark Angel gelding has had a break since to freshen him up, so he could be spot on for this. He’ll enjoy a bit of cut in the ground, so will have no issues if the heavens open but after going up 20lbs from the start of the season, it could be that with a mark of 95, the handicapper finally has him where he wants him.

Another who’s had a very good season so far is the Tim Easterby-trained Snoano, who’s versatile in terms of ground and certainly stays this extended mile and a quarter very well. He won his only start here at York over a mile and a half, so clearly enjoys the track, and a strongly-run race over slightly shorter should be spot on for this son of Nayef. He was a good sixth at Goodwood, about three lengths in front of Erik The Red, and off the same terms, should be able to confirm the form unless the nine runs he’s already had this season begin to catch up with him, however he’s another that might well be in the grip of the handicapper.

Luca Cumani’s stable has finally found some form this season and his well-bred Fallen For A Star looks to have a chance here if he can once again settle well under Jamie Spencer. He’s had problems with being too keen in his races and a hood seems to have helped, as well as a change of tactics to make sure he gets all the cover possible from a held-up position, so he’s finally beginning to realise some of the potential in his excellent pedigree. Being by Sea The Stars, this trip should be perfect for him, but the main worry is the ground – he’s never raced on anything softer than good to firm on turf and even though he’s run well on the all-weather, there’s no way of knowing whether a rain-softened surface will be ok for him. A mark of 91 is reasonable, though and he could enjoy this big field and likely fast pace, so don’t count him out, even if the rain comes.

One who won’t mind either fast or slow ground is Ralph Beckett’s MASTER OF IRONY, who’s won over a mile and a quarter on good to firm and over a mile on soft. His win at Windsor off a mark of 84 was an extremely good performance, blowing away Croquembouche and Passover, who hasn’t finished anywhere worse than third in his next four runs after that. He’s up to a mark of 91 now and while the rise of 7lbs might seem harsh, I don’t think it contributed to his disappointing showing at Sandown Park last time out. He’s a horse that needs to be switched off and after that last race, Oisin Murphy reported that he’s been temperamental and sulked the whole way round, so I think a line can be put through that run. The son of Makfi has plenty of ability and will enjoy the nature of this big field and this track – a long bend before a long straight, keeping him interested early on before allowing him to creep into the race. He was sixth in a handicap over a mile at this meeting last year behind My Dream Boat, now a Group 1 winner, and looked as if this extra two furlongs should suit. He’s been off for around two months, so should be well prepared and tuned-up for a race that could well have been targeted by connections and I think he’ll run well at quite a big price.

MY  Advice

MASTER OF IRONY – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (SkyBet)

  
2.15 York – Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3)

Godolphin have enjoyed a great deal of success in the Strensall Stakes in recent years having won five of the last nine renewals and that fine run looks set to continue here with SCOTTISH the one to beat. The son of Teofilo showed a high level of form last season when finishing runner-up in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot and the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood before ending his campaign with a deserved victory in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr. Since being purchased by Godolphin and switched to Charlie Appleby over the winter, the now four-year-old has carried on where he left off and looked a real force when cruising to victory in the Listed Steventon Stakes at Newbury last month. His last run in the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster Stakes was a tad disappointing but he was merely outstayed over an extended 1m2f by Royal Artillery (who is a beast about double his size) and drops back down to 1m1f here which looks like it should be perfect for him. He still holds entries in both the Irish Champion Stakes and Champion Stakes which suggests that connections feel that he is capable of a step up and this could be the ideal stepping stone on route.

His closest rival could come in the shape of the sole three-year-old in the field, Diploma, who gets weight all round. Sir Michael Stoute’s filly has been highly progressive this campaign and was an impressive winner of the Listed Lyric Stakes over an extended 1m2f last time. That form has been franked with the runner-up Fireglow scoring at Listed level subsequently and she remains on a steep upward curve. Although she is clearly going the right way, a drop in trip wouldn’t look as though it would particularly suit her but she does get in here on favourable terms and is a leading contender.

David O’Meara has landed the last two renewals of this contest and is represented here by 2014 winner Custom Cut. The seven-year-old has finished in the frame on four of his five starts this campaign and although he remains fairly consistent at this sort of level, he tends to come up short and may prefer a bit of cut in the ground nowadays. He was well fancied when fourth in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes last Thursday though and arrives here with a shout.

Countermeasure rates an interesting participant having ran a stormer to finish fourth in the Eclipse despite acting as a pacemaker for Time Test. He again filled the same role in the Group 2 York Stakes and wasn’t beaten all that far so could prove to be a different proposition now being ridden with his best interests at heart. It would be difficult to follow him with much confidence though as a nine-race maiden who finished second off a mark of 79 in a Class 3 handicap at Kempton back in June.

The highest rated horse in the field is Yorker representing William Haggas, who bagged the Strensall five years ago with Green Destiny. The seven-year-old gelding is a three-time Grade 1 winner in his native South Africa but makes his debut in Britain here having not been seen on a racecourse since June 2014. It remains to be seen how his form translates and indeed how much ability he retains and a watching brief can only be advised with all things taken into account.

Both Tullius and Air Pilot have the unenviable task of conceding weight all round following their Group 3 victories earlier in the campaign and the quick ground on offer here will likely put paid to their chances.

MY  Advice

SCOTTISH – 1.5pts win @ 9/2 (Boylesports)

 
2.50 York – Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap)

Seen as the ‘3yos Ebor’ the Melrose proves just as competitive and in some cases more of a puzzle with many of the field stepping up to 1m6f for the very first time. Indeed, Injam is the only runner in the 13-strong field to have won over the distance before and that came in a three-runner soft-ground maiden at Haydock.

The best way of approaching the unknown is to look for an improver who has shown their best work at the finish over 1m4f and SHRAAOH fits particularly nicely into that category. The son of Sea The Stars has been quietly progressive since making his debut at Newmarket’s Craven meeting in April and bar a below-par effort in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot (well fancied but found the soft ground to be against him), he has continued on an upward curve. He put in a very nice performance when only going down by a short head behind Dal Harraild in a hot 1m4f handicap at Glorious Goodwood, finishing with a strong late burst that really caught the eye. He has only gone up 2lb for that run which seems very fair and the extra two furlongs on offer here should prove ideal.

His biggest challenge could come from the Ballydoyle duo in the line-up, headed by Seamie Heffernan’s mount Kellstorm. The Galileo colt is a brother to this year’s Ascot Gold Cup winner Order of St George so the step up to 1m6f promises to suit. He has already shown a decent level of form and refreshed from a break (not seen since early May), he could be revved up and ready to go. The ground is a bit of an unknown as the quickest he has raced on is good but his illustrious older brother has proven to be a versatile sort and he could well follow suit.

His stablemate Unicorn has the burden of conceding weight all round and will have no easy task with this being his first run of the season. He was a runaway winner of a Leopardstown maiden a year ago before disappointing in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes and hasn’t been seen since. He is embarking on a massive step up in trip having only ran up to a mile but as a brother to connections’ St Leger runner-up Bondi Beach, he could well thrive over this sort of trip. He does look to be the stable second string on jockey bookings though.

Regal Monarch has had a completely different path having only made his debut last November and has already graced the track seven times this campaign. He hasn’t finished out of the first three this year and now finds himself on a 28lb higher mark than when second in a Class 5 Doncaster handicap back in April. He has been purchased by Highclere to continue his racing in Australia so Mark Johnston is clearly trying to strike while the iron is still hot having landed a Pontefract handicap with the Notnowcato gelding on Sunday. He has a 6lb penalty to contend with but is clearly thriving at present and sluiced up over 1m5f at Newmarket three starts back so has to enter consideration.

MY  Advice

SHRAAOH – 1.5pts win @ 7/2 (SkyBet, BetVictor)

 
3.25 York – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) 

This looks a vintage renewal of the Gimcrack with Blue Point likely to be the favourite, having come a close second to Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last time. He lost nothing in defeat that day but it felt like something of an anti-climax compared the eleven length demolition of his rivals at Doncaster the time before. He just wasn’t streetwise enough on that occasion to get the job done but Mehmas is not here and he looks justified in his position at the head of the market.

However, there are a number of very smart performers in the field including William Haggas’ Mubtasim who has won his first two starts in good fashion and he looks to have a bright future ahead of him. He beat a pretty good marker in Town Charter at Haydock earlier this month and his trainer has taken this race twice in the last six years.

Aidan O’Brien’s Intelligence Cross must also come into the mix having finished second to Mehmas in the July Stakes at Newmarket. He was a shade disappointing on the face of it at Goodwood last time but he may have played his cards a little early there and ridden with more restraint, I think he will be shown in a better light.

However, I the one I like most is MOKARRIS who couldn’t have been more impressive when winning the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury last time. Simon Crisford’s colt was well-backed through the day and having travelled smoothly throughout under Paul Hanagan, he quickened up clear under hands and heels to win by two and three-quarter lengths. The form of that race has been franked with the fifth home Miss Infinity winning a Listed race next time and he looks a colt on the up. His only disappointing effort saw him well-beaten in the Coventry on slow ground and although there is rain forecast, I don’t think it will be enough to blunt his turn of foot. This is clearly another step up on what he has done so far but he looks entitled to take his chance and I’m expecting a big run.

Of the rest, one who could be overpriced is Kevin Ryan’s Dream Of Dreams who has always been held in high-regard by the stable. He was well-backed in the Railway Stakes at the Curragh last time but he missed the break and having been ridden to get to the front, he just didn’t have anything left inside the final furlong. He is capable of better than that with the yard having already caused one upset this week, I think 12/1 is a very big price.

MY  Advice

MOKARRIS – 1pt win @ 9/2 (SkyBet)

Dream Of Dreams – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)

  
4.00 York – Betfred Ebor (HANDICAP) 

This race has proved a real graveyard for older contenders with only three horses older than five being able to land the Ebor since the legendary Sea Pigeon scored as a nine-year-old in 1979. All three have done so in the last eleven years but even so, this is a particularly strong negative statistic. There are several runners in today’s field aged six or above including the likes of Ivan Grozny, Quick Jack and Elidor.

Usually in races such as this, being drawn on the rail is an advantage but that hasn’t proved the case in the Betfred Ebor. Runners drawn low have been at an overwhelming disadvantage in recent years with only three of the last ten winners scoring from stall 14 or lower. With victory in the Betfred Ebor being held in such high esteem, those jockeys drawn low have shown a tendency to break far too quickly from the stalls in order to take advantage of their draw, but only end up setting a furious early pace in order to maintain their position. These early exertions clearly take their toll and play right into the hands of those drawn wide.

The weights in the Betfred Ebor are fairly well compressed these days, making this trend fairly a minor one, but it must be noted that only four of the last 25 winners successfully shouldered more than 9st 3lbs. In such a competitive handicap where stamina is at an absolute premium, every pound matters, and the chances of the seven in the field who are carrying the desired weight must be increased.
The 2011 25/1 winner Moyenne Corniche went against a well-established trend, notably that he had finished outside of the first four on his most recent start. This is a stat that has accounted for seven of the last ten winners, so it does not look a race in which it is best to pin your hopes on a horse returning to form here.

We can take this trend one step further when you consider that 8 of the last 10 winners had achieved a top two finish on either or both of their two latest starts.

Whichever way you look at it, favourites do not fare well in the Betfred Ebor – there have only been two winning favourites since 1998, and there have been four winners in the last decade priced no shorter than 20/1. Therefore the best advice, other than to oppose the favourite, is to back your selection regardless of the starting price.

Shortlist

HEARTBREAK CITY – 5/7

Top Tug – 5/7

Antiquarium – 4/7

Conclusion

In an ultra-competitive renewal of the race, all of our runners miss at least two of the trends but the one who gets the narrow vote is HEARTBREAK CITY. Tony Martin’s six-year-old won on his penultimate start on the flat but following a flop in the Chester Cup, he has since won twice over hurdles with a bit to spare. The handicapper has taken no chances with his mark by putting him up a lot but Adam McNamara takes a useful 5lb off his back. His trainer is adept at getting horses primed for these big days and it would be no surprise to see him go close.

Top Tug narrowly misses out on the top spot having finished a close third over 1m4f here in July. This will be his first go at a trip further than 1m4f but he seems to like it here so it is easy to see why connections were tempted. He is drawn on the inside in stall 2 so should be able to get a good position and may be able to outrun his sizeable odds.

The final member of the shortlist is the Northumberland Plate winner Antiquarium who relished the step up in trip at Newcastle. He has plenty of weight on his back as he carries 9st 8lb but he hasn’t had too much racing so there may be more improvement to come. He ran well to finish fifth over course and distance in the Melrose last year and he should be in the shake-up.

MY  Advice

HEARTBREAK CITY – 0.5pt e/w @ 11/1 (bet365)

 
4.35 York – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race) 

Some intriguing two-year-olds take their place in this Listed contest, none more so that Mark Johnston’s twice-raced Sutter County, who looks all speed and should be well-suited to the sharp five furlong trip here at York. However, a huge note of caution with this horse – if the rain materialises and the ground is good to soft or worse, I think he’ll be declared a non-runner. He wasn’t in love with the ground when he defeated the useful Dream Of Dreams at Newmarket last time out, just lasting home after bursting clear with a furlong to go, and I doubt connections will subject him to that again, especially in this stronger race. If the ground is quick, though, he’ll have a great chance of making it three from three in his career.

Final Reckoning joins him in currently sitting at the top of the market after winning a good quality Nursery Handicap at Goodwood last time out. Rusumaat, the second that day, boosted the form when finishing second here earlier this week, so this is clearly a horse with lots of ability and speed. This drop back to the minimum five furlongs shouldn’t be a problem, especially given he’s fine with cut in the ground (won already on good to soft) and his previous run at the track over six furlongs suggested he might benefit from going back to five. He’s got a live chance in an open race.

Carrying a 3lb penalty for winning a Listed race last time out, Hugo Palmer’s Afandem holds strong claims of making it two Listed contests on the bounce. He deals with ease in the ground fine and looks as if the drop to five furlongs is ideal for his keen-going style of racing. The Listed race he won in France may not have been the strongest affair but he did it well and added to his close third to Yalta in a Novice race at Goodwood while trying to give that smart rival 6lbs and an easy defeat of Rusumaat on his racecourse debut, he’s got some very good form in the book already. However, there hasn’t been a penalised winner of this in the past nine runnings and his tendency to fail to settle is a big worry.

Frankie Dettori won the race on My Propeller back in 2011 and this year he rides the Tom Dascombe-trained BIG TIME BABY, who has shown plenty of speed and ability in his four starts to date, but is another that looks as if he needs to learn to settle a bit better to fulfil his potential. He’s been keen in both of his attempts at Group level in his short career so far, leading for much of the race before weakening into seventh and fifth respectively in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Molecomb Stakes at the Qatar Goodwood Festival, but if he can keep his enthusiasm under wraps here, he could have a great chance. Soft ground didn’t seem to be the excuse for his weakening at Ascot, he travelled really well through the majority of the race, so any rain shouldn’t be too much of a problem and at around 8/1, he could be much too big a price.

MY  Advice

BIG TIME BABY – 1pt win @ 10/1 (bet365)

 
5.05 York – Betfred Apprentice Stakes (Handicap) 

The curtain comes down on the Ebor meeting with this five furlongs sprint for the apprentice jockeys and most of the young stars in the weighing room are taking part.

Adam McNamara has enjoyed a fine first season in England and he gets aboard Celebration who was a close fourth at Goodwood last time. He was only collared close home last time so the 3lb off his back should help and the cheekpieces which were left off last time are back on.

David O’Meara’s Lathom is another who experiments with the headgear as he wears a visor for the first time on Saturday. The gelding won the Weatherbys Super Sprint last year and has shown signs of promise this season but just hasn’t been quite finishing his races off, so it isn’t a great surprise that the visor is reached for in a bid to find further improvement.

Kevin Ryan saddles Laughton who has been in fine form of late, winning two of his last four starts, including a valuable race at Goodwood a few weeks ago. He has only been put up 4lb for that effort and he must be high on any shortlist. His jockey Kevin Stott spent most of last season in Newmarket but is now back with Kevin Ryan and he is one of the most experienced jockeys in this field. He is likely to be in the shake-up if continuing his fine run of form.

However Tim Easterby looks to have a strong hand here with three runners in East Street Revue, Midnight Malibu and Excessable. The latter two make most appeal and Midnight Malibu comes here on the back of consecutive victories at Chester and Ascot. He actually finished ahead of Laughton at Chester in June and although Laughton gets a pull in the weights, there doesn’t look to be much between them.

The one I like most of those is EXCESSABLE who has always been well thought of by connections but he has proved a bit disappointing since his 2yo days. It has taken him a while to come down the handicap but he managed to get his head in front off a mark of 78 last time and having gone up just 4lb I think he can do a bit of winning yet. Nathan Evans has been booked to ride and he has already shown himself to be a very good rider when winning on Hoof It at Goodwood and also an astute tactician. His 3lb claim negates most of the rise from the handicapper and having tasted success last time, I fancy he will go close to going in again here.

MY  Advice

EXCESSABLE – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (Coral)

[Glorious goodwood day 5 Saturday]

2.00 Goodwood – The Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Stakes (Handicap) 

With winners priced in between 7/1 and 28/1 in the last ten years, this race is clearly a bit of a pinstickers’ special and you’re going to need a bit of luck to win. Firstly, we’ll have to be ruthless with some solid trends so that we can cut the 28-strong field down to a more manageable shortlist. No winner of the race in the last ten years has carried less than 9-0, so that’s the bottom eight ruled out, just 20 to go.

All of the last ten winners had shown their well-being in the season and had been placed on at least one of their last four starts, which takes another six out and leaves us with 14, so we need another few eliminators. All of the last ten winners had nine or more runs in a handicap under their belts, so this is one of those messy, big-field affairs where experience can count for a lot – three more fall by the wayside here, including Ryan Moore’s mount, Projection and Jamie Spencer’s ride, Shamshon.

Also, all of the last ten winners had been placed at least four times in handicaps previously, so we lose two of Richard Fahey’s contenders, Ballymore Castle and Grandad’s World, as well as Misterioso. No winner in the last ten years has won this after winning last time out, so that’s Soie D’Leau off the list and, finally, every one of the last ten winners had also experienced the unique test that is Goodwood at least once before, scratching Nuno Tristan and Mukaynis.

So we’re down to the final five now and, interestingly, Paul Midgley trains two of them. Gamesome has been rated as high as 100 once upon a time, and came close to taking advantage of his lower mark of 93 when finishing second on his last two runs, however, combining the fact he’s gone back up to 97 again now and his overall record of just one win in 16 races, he will most likely come up a bit short once again.

Related is Midgley’s other contender and after a period in the doldrums, a third placed finish on his last run in the competitive Sky Bet Dash Stakes  at York could well signal a return to form. He’s well-handicapped on last year’s form, where he was a four-length ninth to Magical Memory in the Stewards’ Cup off a mark of 97. He’s rated 90 now and must hold good claims here given his prominent running style and decent draw in 7; however, he does seem to lack the finishing speed to close out his races and could again see a couple fly past in the final furlong, even though he should run a good race.

George Baker’s Muir Lodge has been progressive over the last 12 months, going from a mark of 84 to his current perch of 93 and while he ran ok off the highest mark of his career at Windsor, he was disappointing next time at Newmarket over seven furlongs. Reverting to this shorter trip should help but even though he’s run at Goodwood three times previously, I’m not sure he enjoys the track and combined with this career-high mark, I’ll pass him over here.

Hoof It has been a hugely consistent, creditable performer in many of the top six furlong handicaps around the country for a long time now – he has a Stewards’ Cup win to his name in 2011. His last run behind the current favourite for the Stewards’ Cup, Orion’s Bow, was a very decent effort behind a very progressive rival and off just 1lb higher here, he has to have decent claims for a Trainer/Jockey partnership in Michael Easterby and Nathan Evans who have already won plenty this season, including the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh with the same owners’ Hoofalong. He was 12th in this race last season off the same mark though, so even though he’s in better form going into this race than last year, he’ll have to run a belter under a big weight (aided by Evans’ 5lb claim) to get involved.

The horse that’s left sat at the top of my list was in fact one place behind the earlier mentioned Related at York in the Sky Bet Dash Stakes, but receives the good end of a 3lb swing in the weights from that run and could reverse the form with that rival. It is of course David Barron’s FAST TRACK that I’m talking about and this son of Rail Link has now been dropped to 90, his lowest mark since his last win, all the way back in July 2014, where he beat the classy Eastern Impact off 87 at the July Course, no mean feat given that horse loves the track. Obviously it is a concern that the horse hasn’t won since then, but he has finished second three times since then in good handicaps, so he’s come close plenty of times. Last year, the gelding finished sixth in this race off a mark of 96, just three lengths behind Golden Steps, so off 7lbs lower and after the run at York showing he’s in good form once again (just 3 lengths behind the in-form Kimberella), he’s surely got a huge chance of being involved at a decent price. Five-year-olds also have the best record of any age group in the last ten renewals of the race, with three victories, so he fits the profile of a winner of this race well – from stall 19, I’m expecting a big run.

MY Advice

FAST TRACK 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)

 
2.35 Goodwood – The Qatar Handicap Stakes 

Another tricky handicap over a mile and a half and yet another Goodwood race that Mark Johnston has an excellent record in – has won it three times in the last ten years – he has another four contenders here in the shape of Jaameh, Regal Monarch, Beaverbrook and Soldier In Action. Of the four, Jaameh and Regal Monarch may well need the ground much softer than they’re likely to get here, so it could be bet to focus on the other two despite these two’s low weights. Soldier in Action was a good winner last time out off a mark of 90, beating Snoano by a length and a quarter over this trip on good ground, so we know he stays and enjoys the ground. His prominent style of racing should stand him in good stead here as long as a berth of stall 14 doesn’t inconvenience him and he certainly has claims with Adam Kirby in the saddle.

Beaverbrook is a whole different kettle of fish. He’s been campaigned very oddly recently, running over a mile at Haydock in May and then taking part in the two-mile Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot – both had the same result: being beaten ten and a half lengths down the field. While neither run would encourage you to back him, the fact that he’s now trying this intermediate trip for the first time, back on better ground is intriguing. Don’t forget, this was a horse that was just four lengths behind subsequent Eclipse winner Hawkbill three runs ago in a Listed race over a mile and a quarter. On pedigree, this son of Cape Cross and a Kingmambo mare could well find this trip right up his street and if he does, a mark of 93 could be lenient given how useful a two-year-old he was (4th in the Coventry Stakes) so he has to be given very close attention with the superb James McDonald in the saddle.

Another trainer who has won three of the last ten renewals of this is Sir Michael Stoute and he’s double-handed here with two sons of Sea The Stars, running off the same mark of 91, one that could underestimate both. SHRAAOH is a highly-regarded Al Shaqab-owned colt who absolutely hacked up in a maiden over a mile and a quarter at Newcastle before disappointing over this trip on soft ground at Royal Ascot. That effort, even considering he had a nightmare trip and was hampered multiple times, looked too bad to be true that day and it could have been that he needs the ground fast, something he’ll get here. He was a never-nearer third in what seems to be one of the best three-year-old handicaps of the year so far at Nottingham back in May, closing on Poet’s Word and Muntahaa and beating Indulged and Makzeem home, all very useful types. I have no doubt he’s got plenty more to come and the good ground will help him to put in a much better effort here under Frankie Dettori.

Stablemate Shabbah has been in excellent form, winning three races and finishing second in his four runs this season, going up 27lbs in the handicap as a result. He couldn’t quite get the better of Manjaam last time at Ascot and it could be that his improvement is starting to level out. He’ll most likely go well again here, but whether he’s as well handicapped as some others in the race is questionable. He beat Dal Harraild by a neck that day and William Haggas’ runner was very unlucky not to have won – he’s a progressive handicapper who loves this trip on fast ground and a subsequent 3lb rise shouldn’t stop him from performing well. He’s well drawn in 2, but if he’s held up as usual, he may just find it too tough a task to make up ground off his big weight.

Speaking of big weights, Move Up is Godolphin’s hope in the race and, rated 100, he has to carry the welter burden of 9-7. However, his victory over the useful Gershwin over a mile and a quarter at Ascot last time out was a very good effort and this step up to a mile and a half could well draw plenty more improvement out of him. Top weights have won this race before, but giving so much weight to a lot of progressive horses is a serious ask even for a horse rated as highly as 100 and while I think he’ll run well, there could be a couple better weighted to strike.

The other horse that needs a mention is Ralph Beckett’s Gold Faith, who won very easily at Newmarket last time out on his first attempt at this trip on quick ground and the resulting 6lb rise may not be enough to stop the Dark Angel gelding performing well, even up in class.

MY Advice

SHRAAOH 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power)

 
3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)

Really and truly, it’s difficult to see this becoming more than just a procession and MINDING shouldn’t have any problem at all in extending her tally of Group 1 wins to six. She would have been a hot favourite without the fact that the field has cut up markedly and the only real opposition could come in the shape of John Gosden’s Swiss Range in a bid to extend her handler’s record in this race to four wins in five years having landed three in a row from 2012-14. She was well beaten in the French Oaks and although that can often turn out to be a muddling race, the form of her Listed Pretty Polly win prior to that falls well short of that required to trouble he selection.

French raider Jemayel probably boasts the strongest form in the book of the challenging quartet having scored at Group 1 level in the Prix Saint-Alary at Deuville in May. She finished narrowly behind Swiss Range last time out having never had the run of the race but would likely need to improve a great deal here to figure.

Beautiful Romance looks to have a near impossible job on her hands giving 10lbs to the red-hot favourite for all that she has proven herself at Group 1 level before when a good third in the QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes behind Simple Verse.

Queen’s Trust completes the field for red-hot jockey James McDonald but the way in which she was going on at the finish in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot suggested she needed further than the 1m4f on offer there so the step back to 1m2f doesn’t look to be particularly in her favour.

MY Advice

SWISS RANGE (W/O Minding) – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Totesport, Betfred)

 
3.45 Goodwood – Qatar Stewards´ Cup. 

The 6yo Hawkeyethenoo scooped the honours back in 2012, becoming only the second six-year-old winner in the last decade. The group with the most success are the 4yo or 5yos who have won seven of the past ten renewals. In fact it is the 4yos that have the stronger record outpointing the 5yos by 5-2. I won’t go to the trouble of listing them all as I am sure you can work that out for yourself  but it has to be a concern for the likes of Kimberella, Blaine and Ninjago.

As with the Betfred Mile on Friday those running from the top or the bottom of the handicap don’t fair that well. To be precise, horses officially rated between 95 and 104 have won all of the last 10 renewals. There is perfectly good reason behind that. Horses towards the top of the weights are often fully exposed and therefore find it tough to improve again in such a competitive contest whilst those towards the bottom of the weights usually aren’t quite up to this level. The lowest rated horse in this year’s field is 97 but there are three horses who miss out at the head of the field, Baccarat, Ridge Ranger (both 109) and G Force (108).

Closely related to official ratings is the weight each horse is asked to carry and as six of the last ten winners carried between 8st 11lb and 9st 7lb, this looks to be the desired bracket. The top three as they appear on the racecard also fall short on this score, so they look to be up against it.

Recent form also plays an important role in finding the winner as a horse that achieved a top four finish on their most recent start has taken six of the last ten renewals. This suggests that horses have to be at their optimum to run well here and it is not a race in which you should be hoping for horses to have a miraculous return to form. It clearly isn’t the be all and end all but it is something to bear in mind.

Also worth factoring into your calculations is the draw. If my memory serves it was the far rail that usually won but times seem to be shifting as 6 of the last 10 winners came from a pretty central draw (stalls 10-20). Because of the design of the course there are very few races in which the runners come down the centre of the course and it may well be that after 4 days of racing this provides the freshest strip of ground?

The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and given the competitive nature of the race you are always going to get the odd shock. The Stewards’ Cup has had its fair share – Guinea Hunter at 33/1 and Conquest at 40/1 – but overall it has still paid to concentrate on those at the head of the betting as 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the first five in the betting. This race is notorious for the runners flip-flopping in the betting in the lead up to the race but as it stands at the time of writing Dancing Star and Orion’s Bow are vying for favouritism at around 6/1. Whilst Toofi, Kimberella and Growl are also proving popular in the market.

Shortlist

ORION’S BOW – 6/6

Growl – 5/6

Toofi – 4/6

Dancing Star – 4/6

 
Conclusion

David Nicholls has won this race a number of times over the years and he looks to have the standout performer in this year’s field as he saddles ORION’S BOW. The five-year-old won off a mark of 69 in May but has soared up the handicap since then, winning four times since, most recently at Hamilton a couple of weeks ago. That was arguably his most impressive success to date and running here under a 6lb penalty it is hard to dismiss his claims given his progressive profile.

Growl is another who makes the shortlist having missed only one of our trends and that is due to his draw in stall 26. Other than that, the four-year-old looks to have a strong chance, having won two of his last three starts on the racecourse. He was a close fourth in the Bunbury Cup over seven furlongs last time and it is always worth noting when Richard Fahey books Ryan Moore in these big races.
Last year’s runner-up Toofi also looks to have plenty going in his favour having also finished fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup last September. He wasn’t beaten far in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last time and if he can overcome his draw in stall 23, he should be in the shake-up.

The final member of the shortlist is Dancing Star who was the last one to make it into the field of 28 runners. She is a three-year-old and won the same race at Newmarket last time that Magical Memory did before winning this race last year. Her trainer is no stranger to winning big prizes here at Goodwood and under a 6lb penalty, she looks to be one of the leading contenders.

MY Advice

ORION’S BOW – 1.5pts win @ 6/1 (William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power)

 
4.20 Goodwood – Qatar Ebf Stallions Maiden Stakes (Colts & Geldings)

We have an interesting maiden to follow the Stewards’ Cup and one who is likely to be popular in the market is Lockheed who caught the eye of many when finishing second to Seven Heavens at Ascot earlier this month. He was ridden patiently by Pat Cosgrave but really got into top gear in the closing stages and gave the favourite a bit of a fright on that occasion. He cost 450,000 guineas as a yearling and with entries in the National Stakes and Champagne Stakes, clearly plenty is thought of him. However, he is likely to be short and it looks another strong contest so it might be worth looking elsewhere for a selection.

Richard Fahey’s Abiento is unlikely to be too far away having built on a promising debut at Carlisle when second to the well-regarded South Seas at Haydock last time. That was definitely a step forward and although he is drawn wide here, his experience should stand him in good stead.

Another runner with a couple of runs under his belt is Manolito De Madrid who finished second to Tap Tap Boom when last seen at the end of last month. That colt acquitted himself well in handicap company here earlier in the week and although he needs to find further improvement to get off the mark here, the yard’s 2yos tend to improve with racing.

The same can be said for runners from the Michael Bell stable so it must have been pleasing for them to see Ray’s The Money run so well at Ascot on his debut. He attracted support in the market beforehand and probably just had too much to do in the end, having been green early on. Jamie Spencer takes over from William Carson and another big run is likely to be expected.

However, the one I like the look of is BLACK TRILBY who may have only finished seventh on his first start at Leicester, but he raced keenly early on and he paid for that exuberance inside the final furlong. He still wasn’t beaten that far and the winner in particular is highly thought of by connections. The Clive Cox team are in good form at present and they notched another big 2yo winner in France last weekend. He has an entry in the Champagne Stakes later in the season and he could offer a bit of each-way value against those at the head of the market.

Of the newcomers, Richard Hannon’s Ghayyar is perhaps the most interesting, running in the Al Shaqab colours. The Power colt cost 160,000 guineas as a yearling and is a half-brother to a Listed winner in Mahaatheer. The yard have won this race three times in the last ten years and will be hoping for a strong performance by their debutant.

Hugo Palmer’s Colibri is also worth a mention being by Champion Australia sire Redoute’s Choice and he too holds an entry in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September. The yard’s 2yos tend to improve for their first run but they aren’t averse to having first time out winners so it will be interesting to see how he fares.

MY  Advice

BLACK TRILBY – 0.75pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

 
4.55 Goodwood – The Qatar Stakes (Handicap)

This seven furlong handicap for three-year-olds looks to have plenty of classy individuals entered, but as we’ve seen in the past and throughout this week, the draw is important, especially over this distance.
Hornsby has some decent form in the book, including a good third to Von Blucher in a strong mile handicap at Newmarket, but he’s drawn in the car park in 15 and would probably prefer a surface with a little bit of cut in it, especially back at seven furlongs. So while I think he’s a decent horse, this might not be the right race to back him in.

Also suffering from a bad draw is Richard Hannon’s George William, who’s been very progressive this season, winning twice and being placed twice, but he’s been raised 4lbs for his last second to Rostova and in combination with the high draw and how he’ll have to expend a fair amount of energy to get to his favoured prominent position, he might be another to swerve on this occasion.

The three that it might pay to concentrate on are drawn 2, 3 and 4, starting with Godolphin’s second runner, VENTUROUS, who will break from 4. He’s exclusively raced over six furlongs after his racecourse debut over seven and judging by the way he’s been caught for pace over the shorter trip on a few occasion over his past five runs, this step up to seven furlongs could be the ideal next step in this Raven’s Pass colt’s career. Trainer Charlie Appleby has always thought he’s not short of speed, but this step up to seven furlongs on a tight track, coupled with a 2lb drop in his mark to 95 and the assistance of the in-form James McDonald, could result in a decent performance and I think he’s got a big chance.

Estidraak represents the Sir Michael Stoute yard and must bounce back from a disappointing showing at Newmarket in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes. He was way too keen on the lead that day and paid for it in the final couple of furlongs, even though Paul Hanagan wasn’t hard on him at all once his chance had gone. It was a disappointing effort after the style of his maiden win at Kempton, where he hacked up by seven lengths, looking a very classy performer. That run at Newmarket was also his first run on turf and he still has to prove he likes the surface, along with having to prove he’s up to this level so soon in his career. I have no doubt we’ll see a better effort from the colt from stall 2 this time around, but whether he’s up to taking a competitive handicap like this is another question entirely.

The last of the three well-drawn horses is Mark Johnston’s Hawatif, who more than confirmed her wellbeing last time out at Doncaster where she beat Company Asset and Quick N Quirky in a fillies’ handicap. She races off a mark only 4lb higher now and if sticking with the prominent tactics that have seen her go so well over the past month, she could have another decent effort in her locker. The concern is that the race she won just a week or so ago wasn’t very strong and she’ll certainly have to step up once again to be involved here.

Mamillius broke his duck on the third attempt for trainer George Baker and looked a useful colt when doing so at Salisbury. He won easily that day, and could be anything on his handicap debut. However, the second horse in that race, Marbooh, has struggled in two handicaps off a mark of 80 so this mark of 88 might be high enough for now, even though he should enjoy both trip and ground here.

MY Advice:

VENTUROUS – 1pt win @ 6/1 (SkyBet)

 
6.00 Goodwood – Qatar Apprentice Stakes (Handicap)

These types of races can prove a bit of a minefield and it often pays to side with an apprentice you know can do the job. Eddie Greatrex is one such man having landed the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day last year and his mount MR QUICKSILVER must have a big shout. The gallant grey had been most consistent last campaign without quite getting his head in front until finally shedding his maiden tag at Lingfield in December at the tenth time of asking. The son of Dansili has since left Andrew Balding and can be forgiven his debut run after nearly six months off on ground softer than ideal and over a trip shorter than he is used to. He bounced back to his usual self over a mile at Ascot last time when second in a competitive-looking heat and given he was doing all his best work at the finish having hit a flat spot, the extra  furlong here should play right into his hands. A 4lb rise looks fair on that evidence and a big run is expected.

His stablemate Bold Prediction has a somewhat contrasting profile having been on the go almost constantly since August last year. He hit a purple patch on the all-weather around the turn of the year and carried on his good work transferred to turf last time out when second to the re-opposing Heisman at Yarmouth. The fact that he hasn’t won on turf for over three years is rather disconcerting but Walker has employed the services of crack apprentice Adam McNamara and he is a player.

His Yarmouth vanquisher Heisman showed signs that he was coming back to the boil last time out on only his second start for George Baker and could well come on a great deal for that win. The first-time cheekpieces seemed to keep him focussed when winning at the Norfolk track and re-applied here he has to be considered off only a 2lb higher mark.

Van Huysen is one of only two last time out winners in the field having scored at Sandown on Wednesday. If he turns out again quickly, he gets in here with a 6lb penalty which may overestimate him given the nature of his one and a half length win. He also has a bit to find with the selection on their Ascot running.

Completing the last time out winning trio is Eurystheus who could well be a big player on the evidence of his Chester success earlier this month. He has only been hit with a 4lb rise for that which looks particularly lenient given the ready nature of the win but all of his best recent form has come with pronounced ease in the ground and although the rain may have dampened things slightly, it’s difficult to see conditions worsening a great deal which may just scupper his chance.

MY  Advice

MR QUICKSILVER – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Sky Bet)

[Glorious goodwood day 2 wednesday]

2.00 Goodwood – Matchbook Betting Exchange Goodwood Stakes (Handicap)

There aren’t too many races run over as far as this in Britain so finding a selection has to be done mostly on guesswork, unless of course there are horses in the line-up with proven form.
Nicky Henderson won this in 2015 and he saddles No Heretic here who won the Chester Cup over 2m2f towards the beginning of the season. He often travels strongly but he does usually get home when ridden towards the head of proceedings. However he has been well beaten on his two runs since Chester and Jamie Spencer gets aboard The Cashel Man instead.

David Simcock’s four-year-old hasn’t had a great deal of racing but has won three times including when winning at Newmarket last August. He went up 11lb for that effort but his run at York earlier this season suggested that mark had legs in it. He found the nature of the Northumberland Vase a little tight last time but wasn’t beaten far and this stronger stamina test should play into his hands.

One horse with plenty of stamina is Sir Mark Prescott’s Moscato who rarely runs a bad race and despite finishing seventh, he was only beaten two and a half lengths in last season’s Cesarewitch. Having finished fourth in the Ascot Stakes last month, he also ran a fine race to fill the same position in the Northumberland Plate last time. He shouldn’t be stopping at the business end of the race but the handicapper might just have his measure at this stage.

The nine-year-old Teak won this race two years for Ian Williams so must come into consideration but the nine-year-old will need to bounce back to form, having turned in a couple of below-par efforts on his last couple of runs.

Another from a National Hunt yard who looks of interest is Oceane who looks as though he was ahead of his mark when winning at Ascot a few weeks ago. A smart juvenile hurdler last winter for the yard, he has only gone up 2lb for beating Steve Rogers and the fast ground should be too his liking here. Clearly this extreme trip is something of an unknown but it would be foolish to rule him out.

James Eustace’s Wind Place And Sho must also come into the mix having won over 2m2f at Pontefract when last seen on a racecourse. The four-year-old drew readily clear of his rivals that day to win by six lengths and on the face of it, a 5lb rise doesn’t look too excessive. His biggest obstacle could be the draw having been drawn out wide in stall 20, but he is unexposed over the trip and there could be more to come.

However, the one I like the most is Ralph Beckett’s POYLE THOMAS who was off the track for nearly two years when being beaten a short-head at Newmarket back in May. The winner Desert Encounter has since won again and looks a progressive performer. Poyle Thomas stepped up to two miles in the Northumberland Vase last time and acquitted himself well, travelling well for a long way and in the end he was only beaten a length by the winner. His only previous try over further than 2m saw him finish eleventh in the Cesarewitch but he was only a four-year-old then and I think he is worth another try over this distance here. He travels well and if he stays, then I think he holds a good each-way chance at around 10/1.

MY Advice

POYLE THOMAS – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (BetVictor)

 
2.35 Goodwood – BeringIce Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

Despite not looking like the most vintage renewal of the Gordon Stakes, it should still prove to be most competitive and Sir Michael Stoute could well hold all the aces. Ulysses hasn’t been seen since finishing well down the field in the Derby so has a bit to prove still having only landed a Newbury maiden to date. He was well-fancied but may have just been a bit of a hype horse and was well and truly found out at the highest level. This is certainly an easier opportunity but he is yet to race on anything faster than good to soft and his only attempt at 1m4f was hardly inspiring, albeit that it was in the Classic.

Therefore, PLATITUDE is taken as the one to beat on the back of his decent second in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket earlier this month. He is yet to add to his debut maiden win at Doncaster last June but has been pitched into some hot company and was far from disgraced when staying on into second behind the particularly well-handicapped Primitivo in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot on his penultimate start. The drop back a furlong to 1m4f should be in his favour here and the less stiff finish than the July Course can also play to his strengths. Stoute has captured this price five times this millennium with superstars such as Conduit and Harbinger along with Snow Sky who carried the same Khalid Abdullah silks as the selection to victory two years ago.

Aidan O’Brien doesn’t seem to have a particularly strong hand here given he landed last year’s renewal with Saturday’s King George winner Highland Reel but Shogun still rates as an interesting challenger as the pick of Ryan Moore. A brother to last year’s Oaks heroine Qualify, he has been employed as a pacemaker in both the English and Irish version of the Derby, so this looks to be the first time that he will tackle 1m4f as a contender in his own right. Nevertheless, he has been highly tried at this sort of level and will likely come up short once more.

His stablemate The Major General is a Listed winner over this trip so clearly has some ability but has a bit to find with a couple of these on recent form, notably Qatari Hunter. Jim Bolger’s colt has gone from strength to strength since winning on his handicap debut off a mark of just 74 in early June. Since then, he has reeled off a four-timer and landed a valuable handicap at Leopardstown last time out. He is clearly going the right way and although he steps up to 1m4f for the first time, he looks as though the extra two furlongs should suit him down to the ground. Galway had been mooted as an option for him but his canny handler seems to have found a decent opportunity at Group 3 level here and he could well have the required improvement to figure at the finish.

Steel Of Madrid wasn’t disgraced when fourth behind subsequent Eclipse winner Hawkbill in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot given the ground was very much on the soft side for him. Prior to that, he stayed on well to land the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket and shaped as though he should cope with the step up to 1m4f here. His main issue has been settling early on and if a steady pace is on offer here, he could blow his chance in the early part of the race.

MY Advice

PLATITUDE – 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365, William Hill, Coral)

  
3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) 

In a race dominated by three-year-olds over the past 10 years (6 winners) and in a sequel to the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, we see possibly the best three milers from the three-year-old age group, all Guineas winners, face off once again – Galileo Gold won the first renewal of the three-way battle, with The Gurkha in second and Awtaad in third. Hugo Palmer’s colt seemed to enjoy the cut in the ground at Ascot and benefitted from a masterful ride from Frankie Dettori, slipping his rivals while they eyeballed each other coming around the final bend. He is clearly a strong stayer at a mile who is very dangerous if left alone on the lead at any point, especially with the master Dettori on board. Although he’s never been outside of the first three in his career and while I find it difficult to see that record ending here, a price of 15/8 on fast ground that he’s avoided on the whole over the past year, doesn’t make huge appeal.

The Gurkha looked to be the unlucky loser in that contest at Royal Ascot, having to be switched out from a trapped position on the rail before staying on strongly to take second, but not being able to catch the English 2000 Guineas winner. He subsequently was outstayed by the improving Hawkbill up the Sandown Park hill in the Eclipse, but it was certainly not a bad effort and the return to this trip should suit him well. It will also be the first time that he’ll encounter good ground since his five and a half-length romp in the French Guineas. While he clearly handles the softer surface, he looked a very nice animal on the faster surface and if he is positioned a little further forward this time, I think he’s got every chance of reversing the form with Galileo Gold. The worry is that the Eclipse could well have taken a lot out of him, but he’s had a good three weeks to recover from that so should be ready to go for Aidan O’Brien.

The final member of the Guineas winners’ club is the Irish champion, AWTAAD. Trained by Kevin Prendergast, the Cape Cross colt was a stunning winner of the Irish Guineas on ‘yielding’ ground, putting Galileo Gold to the sword by the tune of two and a half lengths. However, he was third at Royal Ascot, not seeming to quicken on the sticky, soft ground, so this quicker ground should be much more suitable for him to put his speed down on, even though Prendergast has said the horse doesn’t want the ground too ‘hard’. The course will undoubtedly water the track to maintain a good/good-to-firm balance so it shouldn’t be too fast for him and if you take the way he beat Galileo Gold in Ireland literally, he has to hold very decent claims here. His price of around 7/1 looks much too big considering the form lines between the three Guineas winners and how short his two rivals are, so he’s certainly some excellent value considering this fast ground could well draw out even more improvement, as it does for many sons and daughters of Cape Cross.

In addition to the Guineas winners, there is one more three-year-old in the race in the form of the Richard Fahey-trained, Godolphin-owned Ribchester. He was excellent in the Jersey Stakes, where he beat a decent-looking field by two and a quarter lengths and he was third behind Galileo Gold in the 2000 Guineas. He wasn’t stopping at Newmarket, so the trip shouldn’t be an issue, but I just wonder whether he’s a better horse with some cut in the ground. Even so, he looks to be Godolphin’s first choice in this, with James Doyle on board, despite the presence of the classy, course-loving Toormore, so he needs plenty of respect.

Speaking of Toormore, he heads the older contingent and brings some superb course form into the equation, winning the Lennox Stakes last year and at this meeting in two of the last three years (2nd in the Lennox Stakes in 2014, winner of the Vintage Stakes in 2013). His defeat of Dutch Connection at Sandown on his reappearance was a nice effort, but apart from a fourth-place finish in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, he’s been a little disappointing, especially last time out in the Summer Mile on fast ground at Ascot. It may be that he needs a bit of cut in the ground at this stage of his career and it’s worth noting that only two five-year-olds have won this in the past ten years.

Lightning Spear beat Toormore home in the Queen Anne on soft ground and that was a huge performance from a horse that enjoys a much sounder surface, so I think we can expect the David Simcock-trained five-year-old to confirm form with that rival here. He’ll have his work cut out giving 8lbs away to the three-year-olds, but out of all the older horses, he’s the most lightly-raced so far in his career and he’s certainly the pick of those older horses battling to trouble the classic generation.

MY Advice

AWTAAD – 1pt win @ 7/1 (bet365, SkyBet)

 
3.45 Goodwood – Victoria Racing Club Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)

Probably one of the quickest races of the week and with fast ground forecast, it looks all set for a top-class performance from one of these juveniles.
Mark Johnston looks to hold a strong hand and according to the market, his main hope is The Last Lion who has yet to be out of the first two on his first five starts. He won the Brocklesby at Doncaster at the beginning of the season and got his head back in front last time when winning the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown. It is worth bearing in mind that both of those victories have come on soft ground however and it is possible that he is better with cut in the ground, so I think he is worth taking on.

His stablemate Yalta is dropping back to five furlongs for the first time, having disappointed in the Coventry and the July Stakes on his last two outings. He had looked pretty smart before then, making all here over six on his debut before drawing readily clear of his rivals at Pontefract next time. He showed plenty of speed when winning here earlier in the season so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the drop back in trip but he needs to bounce back.

David Evans’ Rapacity Alexander has a Listed win to her name having won in France last month, making all under a well-judged ride. She was well-fancied to follow up at Deauville in Group 3 company next time but was disappointing so comes here on a bit of a retrieval mission.

It can be dangerous to rule out any runner from the Aidan O’Brien stable but I find it hard to see Sportsmanship getting his head in front here. The War Front colt got off the mark at the third attempt last time beating stablemate Courage Under Fire, but that horse let the form down at Galway last night. This will be his first try over the minimum trip but he will need to take a big step forward on what he has done so far.

Last year’s winning stable must have a good chance of retaining their crown as they saddle Big Time Baby this time around. Tom Dascombe’s colt is two from three so far and his only defeat came in the Norfolk Stakes where his trainer believes he just went too fast early on. He is drawn towards the stands side rail so may be able to get out and force the pace and I think he can run better than his 10/1 price suggests.

However, he may have his work cut out to beat Ed Dunlop’s GLOBAL APPLAUSE who hasn’t done much wrong to date and made it two from three when winning the Listed National Stakes at Sandown in May. He finished fifth in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot last time despite not appearing to enjoy the softer ground and back on a sounder surface, he should be much more effective. He is drawn out towards the middle which might make life slightly more difficult for Frankie Dettori but he looked one of the leading two-year-olds in the early part of the season and I think he can land a first Group success here.

MY Advice

GLOBAL APPLAUSE – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power, SkyBet)

 
4.20 Goodwood – Markel Insurance Maiden Fillies’ Stakes 

This looks to be a most competitive fillies’ maiden and Richard Hannon holds a strong hand with a quartet of runners. He has a couple of very interesting newcomers worth keeping an eye on headed by Sean Levey’s mount Promising. The daughter of Invincible Spirit was an expensive purchase as a yearling and looks to be all speed on paper being out of a 5.5f-6f dirt winner in the US. His other debutant Curry is another well-bred sort being out of Group 3 Brownstown Stakes winner Marvada but she may need more time as her dam did (came into her own as a four-year-old).

Hannon’s best chance could come in the shape of Suffragette City although she has to dispel a below-par effort at Newmarket last time. She is bred to be potentially very classy being a half-sister to the recently retired Illuminate and shaped well amidst greenness to finish third on her Windsor debut. She ran better than the ‘6’ next to her name suggests on her latest start having encountered trouble in running (although her tendency to hang left handed was a contributing factor) and has the scope to land a contest of this nature once she overcomes her inexperience.

That Newmarket contest could have a strong bearing here with two other re-opposing rivals taking their place in the line-up. Grand Myla fared best of the trio when causing a bit of a shock to finish third at 66/1. That was a much better effort than her racecourse bow at Bath but she proved pretty keen throughout and was allowed to dominate from the front which doesn’t look like being the case here.
Bouquet De Flores was a warm favourite having been backed into odds-on but couldn’t justify the strong market support. She is bred to be a decent filly as a half-sister to French Listed winner Inspiriter out of a Listed-winning dam in Floristry but seemed to lose her chance at the start having steadied herself in the stalls. She is entitled to benefit from that experience but this looks like a tough race for one that showed distinct signs of greenness.

Another that was well fancied to make a winning debut was Bithynia and the expensive Breeze-Up filly performed with credit despite only finishing third. That race at Sandown was worked out very well with Grizzel (1st), Naafer (2nd), Night Law (5th and Whiteley (last) all getting their heads in front since the race in May. She looked as though she was possibly done for a bit of speed as she had the run of the race on the rail so the step up to 6f should be ideal for her here and the fact that she still has an entry in the Lowther Stakes certainly catches the eye.

However, marginal preference is for Andrew Balding’s PERFECT ANGEL who looked clued up on her Newbury debut last month and is entitled to build on her ½-length second. The daughter of Dark Angel was out the back early doors but travelled powerfully into the race only to be worn down late on. That could be attributed to the pretty testing underfoot conditions and the faster going here should suit her better as she is out of a Kheleyf mare in The Hermitage (herself a fairly smart juvenile who finished second in the Listed Hilary Needler Trophy).

MY Advice

PERFECT ANGEL – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (bet365)

 
4.55 Goodwood – EBF Veuve Clicquot Fillies’ Handicap.

A tricky little puzzle to try and solve but it may be prudent to side with the three-year-olds in receipt of a more than handy 10lb allowance.

Rioca looked to be progressing into a black-type filly for Sir Mark Prescott last campaign and was rewarded when a decent second in the Listed Montrose Stakes on her final start. It is a bit of a surprise that she has not yet reappeared this campaign and that would count against her here as she looked to take a few races to get up to speed last term. Nevertheless, if she carries on from where she left off her juvenile season, she will have a big say in matters here.

However, preference is for recent Newmarket scorer SHAAN who looks to be on a steep upward curve at present and can land her third win of the season. The Al Shaqab filly finished a good second in a competitive Kempton maiden at the back end of last season and put that experience to good use when shedding her maiden tag at the next time of asking from two subsequent winners. She was quietly fancied on her handicap debut at Chelmsford and ran respectably in second behind Mise En Rose who landed a valuable pot at the Newmarket July Festival earlier this month. She followed that up with a fine third taking on the boys at Sandown before the step up to 1m2f really seemed to bring the best out of her last time out as she made all for a decisive victory. A 4lb rise for that victory seems more than fair and I don’t think the assessor has found the ceiling of her just yet.

Sagely is an interesting contender given how progressive she was in the early part of the season. The daughter of Frozen Power broke her duck at Wolverhampton back in March and made a mockery of her opening mark of 80 when sluicing up at Ripon a couple of months later. She was turned out quickly under a penalty at York and ran with credit to finish second to the subsequent Listed Lyric Stakes winner Diploma, just showing signs that her recent exertions had taken their toll late on. However, she now has a bit to prove on a career-high mark of 90 and on the back of a particularly disappointing effort at Newcastle last time out (for all that she was stepping up markedly in grade to pattern company).

She is the more fancied of the Ed Dunlop pair in this with top weight Sagaciously also representing La Grange Stables. The four-year-old is a half-sister to Sagely which makes this a bit of a family affair and is another that has questions to answer on the back of a disappointing display last time. She has done most of her racing over longer trips than this but was successful over an extended 1m2f at Doncaster three starts back and arrives here on only a 5lb higher mark. It will prove no easy task to give weight all round here though.

One that has proved a bit of an enigma this season is Intimation who hasn’t really hit the expected heights since hacking up in a Leicester handicap over a year ago. She remains lightly-raced with the promise of more to come given that she is bred in the purple and trained by the master of older fillies and mares Sir Michael Stoute but hasn’t been given any help by the assessor and remains on a career-high mark of 90 despite a couple of average efforts. The suspicion is that she may prove more effective with a bit of cut in the ground as well which makes her a bit of a risky proposition at present.

MY Advice

SHAAN – 1pt win @ 7/2 (SkyBet, BetVictor)

 
5.25 Goodwood – NatWest Stakes (Handicap) 

Currently, the market for this 20-runner contest is centred on the William Haggas-trained Afjaan, a progressive four-year-old who hasn’t been out of the first two in his four starts on the racecourse. Draw and ground should prove no issue for him and the Henrythenavigator gelding should certainly be up there challenging at the very least come the finish. The form of his close second at Lingfield last-time-out to Red Box was franked superbly as the winner of that race went on to win the Listed Valiant Stakes at Ascot (albeit as a result of a stewards’ enquiry) and Taurean Star, who finished third, ran well behind Mustashry in a very hot handicap at the same venue. There really aren’t many negatives, but the price does count as one – 7/2 in a 20-runner handicap is always short and especially on this track, where 20 runners can cause chaos, especially if he misses the break a little from stall 1. Frankie Dettori will have to be at his best to make sure the horse won’t get trapped in.

Pastoral Player won this contest last year and comes into this year’s renewal on a 5lb higher mark, but with decent claims of repeating the feat once again. The nine-year-old has suddenly hit form again in the past couple of months, winning over C&D and then finishing a close second on soft ground in a conditions event at Doncaster, a length and three quarters in front of the re-opposing Jack’s Revenge. That form alone probably wouldn’t be good enough to win this, especially with an 8lb swing in the weights, so you might expect the placings there to be reversed. Jack’s Revenge may not have won since July 2012, but he’s posted good efforts in defeat in many of his races over that period – he’s now down to his lowest mark since that win and is in good form, so a return to the winners’ enclosure may not actually be far away.

Winner of a C&D handicap in early June on similar ground to that he’ll encounter here, Mick Channon’s Arnold Lane holds fair claims of making an impact here on his best form. However, he will have to bounce back in a big way from his last few runs after that win, the best effort of those three races being a modest seven-length second in a claiming race at Epsom. However, his style of leading should keep him out of trouble and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is a positive so he can’t be written off at a double-figure price.

Another at a fairly big price who has some decent form in the book is David O’Meara’s Rex Imperator, who enjoys this faster ground and is a solid horse at this level. The Royal Applause gelding has won over six furlongs and despite never having won over seven; his turn of foot will be useful at a tight track such as Goodwood. A mark of 90 is by no means unworkable, as he showed when third to Brazos in a competitive heat at Doncaster last time out and he could go very well under Daniel Tudhope if the draw (12) or the trip doesn’t inconvenience him.

However, there is another at double figure odds that really catches my eye and that’s Dean Ivory’s three-year-old TWIN SAILS. After three disappointing runs at the start of this season in some very good company, the drop down to a handicap in this class combined with the application of first-time blinkers helped him to put in an excellent performance in an apprentice handicap at York where he gave away plenty of weight but was just short-headed by Dawaa, who went on to run very well in a Classy fillies’ handicap at Newmarket on her next run, finishing just half a length away from the smart Spangled. That handicap at York has worked out very well indeed over the past few weeks – the third placed Quick N Quirky and the fifth placed Company Asset went on to run very well behind Hawatif in a decent fillies’ handicap at Newmarket, while the fourth placed Ice Age won next time out at Windsor. A mark of 95 is 10lbs lower than where Twin Sails started the season and there must be plenty of juice in it judging by his good two-year-old form. Obviously there is the chance that the blinkers won’t work as well second time out, but he just looked as if he’d rediscovered the spark that helped him to finish just three quarters of a length behind Galileo Gold in last year’s Vintage Stakes and if he can put his best foot forward under Dane O’Neill, 14/1 is a very generous price.

MY Advice

TWIN SAILS – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Sky Bet)

[Glorious goodwood day 1 Tuesday]

2.00 Goodwood – Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes (Handicap)

Perennially a very tricky opening race to the Festival, highlighted by the fact that seven of the last ten winners were sent off at double-figures. That doesn’t particularly bode well for the current jolly Shakopee although the only favourite to have landed this in the last decade was Mount Logan last year, also trained by Luca Cumani. The lightly-raced four-year-old has clearly had his problems and entered this year having had only three runs in his opening two campaigns, albeit looking a potentially smart animal on each occasion. It took him a couple of runs to get going this year but the way in which he kicked clear at Doncaster last time really caught the eye. The form of that run has since been franked by Goodwood Mirage who scored at Sandown last week and makes a 7lb rise for his latest win look fairly reasonable. The suspicion is that there may be better to come but he could just find one or two a bit more streetwise in a competitive race such as this.

Mark Johnston has been the man with a plan when it comes to this race over the years having landed four of the last ten renewals. The master of Middleham has a quartet of runners this year in a bid to increase his already stellar record, headed by recent Newbury scorer Stars Over The Sea. Roger Brookhouse’s five-year-old had an up and down spell over hurdles for David Pipe before returning to the Johnston yard a few months back and showed some of his old vigour with a comfortable victory last time. A 6lb rise for that looks fair from the assessor although he may not get it all his own way in front this time.

Watersmeet looks to be the number one pick on jockey bookings as the choice of Joe Fanning but is at the time of writing, the least fancied of the four Johnston runners. He is another that will likely be up with the pace and wasn’t beaten far off this mark a couple of starts back at Newmarket. Top weight Revolutionist looks to be in the grip of the handicapper now off a career-high mark of 107 for all that the faster underfoot conditions should suit him better than when down the field in the John Smith’s Cup last time while Fire Fighting has been consistent this year and wasn’t beaten all that far in the same York race latest and has been given a chance off a 2lb lower mark.

Godolphin also hold a strong hand here with a pair of fancied runners and Second Wave is likely to have his fair share of supporters on the back of his close-up second in the Listed Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot last time out. That was an impressive performance returning from a near six month break and he retains the hood that was applied for the first time at the Royal Meeting here, which should help him settle as he has a tendency to prove a tad keen in his races. 4lb higher now, he must still be considered given how few miles he has on the clock but preference is for the apparent second-string for the Boys in Blue, BEST OF TIMES.

He is another lightly-raced four-year-old and could have a bit to prove after three low-key performances so far this year. However, although I’m not one for excuses, there are explanations for each run this year. He could be forgiven needing his Chester reappearance after a year off, but travelled powerfully throughout only to be denied by trouble in running due to a wide draw. His sixth in the Wolferton was a perfectly reasonable effort and he could well have finished closer had not attempted to change legs at a crucial stage in the final furlong. It’s best to put a line completely through his run in the Coral Challenge at Sandown when William Buick made a puzzling decision to pull him to the near side rail only for the majority of the field to power away down the middle of the track. His mark of 105 hasn’t changed since the beginning of the campaign and a couple of lbs respite from the assessor would have been preferable, but if he is the same horse that finished second in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes behind subsequent Irish Derby runner-up Storm The Stars at Goodwood last May, he would have a massive say in matters.

One that can’t go without mention is Erik The Red who has been most consistent this year. Kevin Ryan’s charge has finished in the frame in valuable handicaps at Haydock, York and Leopardstown this season and with the services of Ryan Moore now in the plate, he could well run a big race.

MY Advice

BEST OF TIMES – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (Sky Bet, Ladbrokes)

 
                                                                                                 2.35 Goodwood – Qatar Vintage Stakes (Group 2) 

The best place to start with this race is to look at the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July Meeting, where Godolphin’s BOYNTON ran out a good winner over the re-opposing War Decree from the all-conquering Aidan O’Brien stable, who was extremely well-backed before the off. It was a brilliant performance from the Charlie Appleby-trained colt as he had to come from the rear of the field whilst overcoming a little keenness early on, whereas his rival in second had pretty much the run of the race from a prominent position.

The More Than Ready colt battled on well at the end of the race as well, despite a slightly high head carriage, and could well have been value for more than the three-quarters of a length winning margin, so even though he’ll have to carry a 3lb penalty for that win, I’m not sure whether that alone will be enough for O’Brien’s charge to overturn the form – horses carrying a penalty have gone well in this race historically, Olympic Glory & King Torus both won the race under a penalty in the last six renewals.

The draw (8) shouldn’t be a problem as he’s a horse that is usually dropped in so that he can settle better and given that four of the last five winners have ‘held-up’ appearing in the description of how they won the race, you’d be very hopeful that, in a field of 10, traffic problems wouldn’t be too much of an issue. Boynton also has experience of the course after he won his maiden here, defeating the useful Mutawatheb, and that’s always a big advantage for these two-year-olds on such a unique track.

As for War Decree, if he can jump well from his rail draw in 1 and be prominent once again, he’ll be a big threat, especially if he’s come on for that run behind Boynton at Newmarket. The War Front colt will love the ground too and strictly at the weights, he’s 3lb better off for being beaten by less than a length, even though that’s not always the most reliable pointer for two-year-old form. He won his maiden well on quick ground over this trip and even though it hasn’t worked out brilliantly, with no other horse in the race having won yet, he could well be the one they all have to catch entering the final furlong.

Away from that race, possibly the best form is brought by Andrew Balding’s Isomer, who was half a length behind Churchill in the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot and then a facile winner of a Salisbury maiden despite running the final couple of furlongs with a saddle that had slipped. He’s a horse that has shown he stays seven furlongs extremely well and certainly won’t be weakening at the finish, but the suspicion is that in this company and on as sharp a track as Goodwood is, he might lack for that top-class speed at a key stage in the race.

One of the most unexposed horses in the field comes from a stable that have won this race four times in the last six years (admittedly when Richard Hannon Snr was in charge). Larchmont Lad hacked up on his racecourse debut at Sandown Park, beating next-time-out winner Maths Prize by over three lengths and making a serious impression. Hannon is famous for his excellent two-year-olds and he clearly likes this son of Footstepsinthesand, as does the market, making him third favourite in this competitive-looking race, but it’s a big ask to see him beating the two at the head of the market.

Repton is the other representative from the Hannon stable and it’s interesting that he’s being stepped up to seven furlongs now after winning over five last time. He’s got a bit of stamina through his Dam’s line so it’s not an impossibility that he’ll get this trip, but he has looked very speedy so far, being by Zebedee so it’s a big question mark for me. However, the step up in trip could unlock plenty of improvement so he can’t be dismissed, especially coming from this stable, but that improvement will have to be very substantial as he’s probably facing off against a couple of Guineas horses for next season.

Finally, Thunder Snow is worth a close look, despite finishing a well-beaten eighth in the Coventry behind the excellent Caravaggio. He’s a close relative of Always Smile, Ihtimal and First Victory, so there’s plenty of ability in his family and you’d definitely expect more to come from the Helmet colt. All of those relatives stayed at least seven furlongs and even though this will be his first attempt at the trip, the quick ground will help him there. James McDonald is also booked to ride, so there will be plenty of confidence from the saddle too and at 14/1, he could be the each-way play in the race.

MY Advice

BOYNTON – 2pts win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power, William Hill)

 
                                                                                                 3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2)

With three of the eight declared runners running in the Godolphin blue here, the commentator on duty will have to keep a close eye on the caps if the respective jockeys. They look to hold a strong hand and the first to mention is Richard Fahey’s Birchwood who bounced back to form when winning at Listed level last time. The three-year-old had some good form as a juvenile notably when an unlucky fifth here in the Vintage Stakes as well as his third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Hit It A Bomb. The fitting of a visor seemed to rejuvenate the colt and although he has a bit to find with the leading protagonists, he could go well under Ryan Moore.

However, the race looks likely to centre on the front two in the market and it is easy to make a case for course and distance winner Dutch Connection. Charlie Hills’ colt won his maiden at this meeting two years ago and has performed consistently well subsequently. His only win following that effort came in the Jersey Stakes last year where the combination of seven furlongs and fast ground seemed to bring out the best in him. He was also a close second to Toormore in this race, although the ground would have been slower than ideal on that occasion. I expect him to run well under James McDonald, who is riding as well as anyone at the minute but he found one too good last year and I think that may be the case again here.

The one who appeals most is HOME OF THE BRAVE who had some smart form last season, but there is no doubt he has improved this year, winning twice in Listed and Group 3 company. He seems to have learned to settle in front and from an inside draw, he is perfectly placed to dictate proceedings here. Goodwood is notorious for horses encountering trouble in running and as we saw last year, it can be difficult to peg a front-runner back on this undulating course. James Doyle gets on very well with the four-year-old having won four times on him and I think everything is set up for him to give a bold display. He has a good turn of foot which Doyle will be hoping to use off the front and I think he is the one they all have to beat.

I should also mention his stablemate Gifted Master who is one of only three three-year-olds in the line-up. He enjoyed a fine start to the campaign, winning twice over six furlongs before finishing third behind Quiet Reflection in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. His trainer believes his best trip is seven furlongs and whilst he was undone by the ground last time, he is interesting back on a sounder surface.

The final one to look at is Markaz who got the rewards for a number of consistent efforts when landing the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle a few weeks ago. Owen Burrows’ colt saw out the six furlongs really well on that occasion but he is equally adept at seven and the yard continues to fire in the winners. He has plenty to find with Home Of The Brave on their Leicester form but he can’t be ruled out if backing up his latest effort.

MY Advice

HOME OF THE BRAVE – 1.5pts win @ 9/4 (Bet365, William Hill, SkyBet)

  
                                                                             3.45 Goodwood – Better Odds With Matchbook Summer Stakes (Handicap]

The hat-trick seeking King Bolete will likely have his fair share of followers and has looked a much improved horse since being gelded and joining Roger Varian over the winter. On both occasions at Ascot and Haydock, the four-year-old has led from pillar to post and showed a great deal of grit and determination to hold off all challengers for the win. However, he may not have everything his own way in front this time and the only other time he has attempted this trip was when he was well beaten in the Melrose Stakes at York last August. When you also take into account a 10lb rise in the handicap, there are enough reasons to avoid him here for all that he is clearly in the form of his life.

Therefore, preference is for NOTARISED who represents last year’s winning trainer Mark Johnston. The five-year-old has proved very versatile in terms of ground and trip and produced arguably his best performance of this campaign over course and distance back in May when third behind subsequent Duke of Edinburgh Handicap winner Kinema having only ceded the lead inside the final half furlong. His Goodwood record is actually a very good one with a C&D win to his name, two thirds and his only out of the frame effort coming in this race 12 months ago when a close-up sixth off a 5lb higher mark. He hasn’t raced off a mark as low as 98 since landing the Old Newton Cup last year off only 2lb lower and looks primed for a big run here.

Qewy is an interesting contender for Charlie Appleby having finished a fantastic runner-up in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June. That was his first run for the yard following an in and out spell over obstacles for John Ferguson and he looked to be more at home back on the level. However, that was over six furlongs further than today’s trip and in testing conditions so this race may not completely play to his strengths.

Old Newton Cup winner Tawdeea really caught the eye when staying on strongly at Haydock earlier in the month and, although well fancied in the John Smith’s Cup next time, the drop in trip probably just found him out. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time here and the big strapping four-year-old looks just the type to relish this kind of stamina test. A career-high mark of 104 will be no easy task to overcome though and the suspicion is that he will find a couple of rivals on better terms here.

Gold Prince finished a length and a half behind him at Haydock last time and has been ultra-consistent all year for the in-form Sylvester Kirk yard. However, he now finds himself 10lb higher than at the beginning of the campaign without a win to his name and may prove more effective with a bit of cut in the ground.

MY Advice

NOTARISED – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power)

 
                                                                                  4.20 Goodwood – Weatherbys Private Bank Stakes (Handicap)

A nineteen runner sprint handicap probably fills most punters hearts with dread but whilst this looks a competitive heat, last year’s race suggests that the draw could play a major role in the outcome. The first three home came from single-figure stalls which is down the centre of the racecourse, so it might be best to focus on these runners to start with.

One horse who is likely to be high on many shortlists is Maljaa who hasn’t won since last September, but he has turned in some fine efforts in defeat, including when seventh at Ascot last time. Despite finishing behind six of his rivals on that occasion, he was only beaten just over a length at the line and it is easy to see him running well again here. He does however have to carry top weight again and there may be some better handicapped horses in the line-up.

Another towards the head of the weights is Gary Moore’s Dutch Masterpiece who did manage to win in Listed company at the end of last season, but he has failed to back that up on his next five starts. The visor, which he has worn since last July has been taken off in a bid to refresh the six-year-old and with James McDonald booked, he could run a big race if things fall right for him.

There were several horses in today’s line-up who contested the same Ascot contest as Maljaa earlier this month and the one who finished best was Union Rose who came home in fifth. Ron Harris’ four-year-old backed up a fine effort in defeat at Sandown with another good effort on ground which was quicker than ideal. Despite running well on good to firm ground last time, I think he ideally prefers a bit of cut and so he could find it tough to go close again here.

Just behind him in sixth was Mick Easterby’s Bowson Fred who has enjoyed a fine time on the all-weather this Spring, winning three times. He continues to creep up the handicap but he was only headed close home at Ascot under Kieran O’Neill and Nathan Evans’ 5lb claim here should help ease the burden. He is one of the more interesting runners in the field and if he can overcome his draw in stall 14, he is likely to be right in the firing line.

Nigel Tinkler’s Thesme looks likely to be popular in the market and certainly the booking of Frankie Dettori catches the eye. The four-year-old won twice at York last Summer and turned in her best effort of this year when second in the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh last month. She was beaten a length at her favourite York last time and despite going up in the weights again here, clearly plenty is expected.

Mick Channon’s Shore Step is also well-fancied but his best form has been over six furlongs in the past and so I think the six-year-old is short enough in the market. He is another who tends to run his race but a downhill five furlongs on fast ground might just be sharp enough for him.

Instead, the one who makes plenty of appeal is HAY CHEWED who has been highly-tried since winning in Listed company back in 2014. She wasn’t beaten far in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket earlier this season but she seemed to appreciate the drop into a conditions event on the July Course last time. She wore a hood for just the second time on that occasion and was only collared close home by Monsieur Joe, which rates a good effort and the headgear is retained for this assignment. She was dropped 2lb on the back of that and from a stall 4 draw, I think she can outrun her odds of around 16/1.

MY Advice

HAY CHEWED – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)

 
                                                                                             4.55 Goodwood – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing EBF Stallions Maiden Stakes.

This looks a tricky little maiden and with horses with experience having fared well in this race in the past, it is no surprise to see most of the top half of the market coming here with the benefit of a run. The market leader is Clive Cox’s Harry Angel whose only start saw him finish a narrow second to Saeed Bin Suroor’s Reach High at Ascot. Having been keen early on, he kept on strongly under hands and heels riding from Adam Kirby to be beaten just a nose at the line. His rival had the benefit of experience on that occasion and with more to come from this colt, he is clearly expected to go well. He has an entry in the Gimcrack in a few weeks’ time and the yard had a high profile 2yo success at the weekend in France. It is easy to see why he is favourite for this but in a tough event I think that 7/4 is short enough.

Misleading won this race two years ago in the colours of Mrs Fitri Hay and she is doubly represented here with Colonel Frank and Poetic Principle. The former wasn’t beaten far on debut at Yarmouth and the form of that race is starting to work out well with the second and fourth having come out and won since. He should be wiser for that run and this full-brother to Agent Allison comes right into the reckoning.

Charlie Hills opted to run Parys Mountain in the Coventry Stakes following a promising runner-up effort at Leicester on debut and whilst he made little impact at Ascot, he is worthy of interest back in this sort of company. He finished second behind the smart Thunder Snow on debut and this Gimcrack entry is likely to show up well with Silvestre De Sousa getting back on board.

The one of most interest to me is Saeed Bin Suroor’s BEST SOLUTION who showed plenty to work on at Windsor on debut, when third behind Clive Cox’s Kodiline. He missed the break under James Doyle but made good late headway under hands and heels to be beaten just under three lengths at the line. The form of that race has been boosted with Richard Hannon’s Majeste having won impressively next time and I think there is more to come from this Kodiac colt.  The yard have done well with their two-year-olds so far this year and with the benefit of that run under his belt, I think he looks a solid each-way bet.

Of the newcomers, the most interesting is Hugo Palmer’s Mazyoun who has entries in both the Group 2 Gimcrack and the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes later in the season. The colt is a three-parts brother to Hooray who won four times as a two-year-old including the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes on her final start. The Palmer yard have had a couple of two-year-old winners in the past couple of weeks and with the owners heavily involved in the sponsorship of this meeting, it is quite possible that he has been saved for this assignment.

The two Richard Hannon runners are also interesting with Swag and Tesko Fella having both sold for £125,000 and €100,000 respectively as yearlings. Neither has particularly fancy entries looking forward but the yard has saddled two winners of this race in the last decade so they are respected.

MY Advice

BEST SOLUTION – 0.75pt e/w @ 7/1 (SkyBet)

  
                                                                                  5.30 Goodwood – Smarter Bets With Matchbook Betting Exchange Fillies’ Stakes (Handicap)

This looks an interesting puzzle to solve, with plenty of fillies taking advantage of the weight allowance for three-year-olds; in fact, over half the field are three, with only one mare over the age of four.

Haley Bop represents Mark Johnston, who always seems to do well at this meeting, and this filly is a solid yardstick for the others to try and overcome. Her mark of 88 is one she’s showed she can cope with after finishing a slightly unlucky third over seven furlongs at Sandown Park last time out, staying on well at the end, so this step back up to a mile should suit. She’ll most likely be prominent from her draw in 1 as well, so don’t be surprised to see her as the one to catch rounding the turn for home under Joe Fanning.

Drawn on the opposite side, Richard Hannon’s Shwaimsa looks to have a bit of a task on her hands if she wants a prominent position, but she’s shown some tactical versatility so far in her career, so you’d be surprised if Frankie Dettori got her trapped wide throughout the piece. She’s run creditably off this mark in her last couple of starts, finishing a never-nearer third in decent races at Ascot and Newbury, so she certainly can’t be discounted now receiving the Dettori assistance for the first time.

Quebee is progressive, winning on both of her last two runs at Windsor over an extended mile and while the 3lb ride is unlikely to stop her running well, it could be that this better company will find her out a little. The sharp nature of the track is also a small concern as she seems like the type that would appreciate a mile and a quarter, so even though she enjoys the quick ground and looks to be still ahead of the handicapper, this is a step up in class over a slightly shorter trip might be a little too much.

Another progressive, consistent filly is the Ralph Beckett-trained Desert Haze, who has only been out of the top three once in six runs and that was on her debut. She runs off a mark of 83 here and has shown already that it’s not one that’s beyond her, finishing third in a similar race at Ascot off just a pound lower. She’s likely to go forward under Harry Bentley from her low draw so she should be involved at the business end as long as she doesn’t go too fast.

Pure Art, also from the Beckett stable, has to be there or thereabouts after being raised just 1lb for coming a close second to the progressive Pirouette last time out at Doncaster. That rival subsequently filled the runner-up spot in a hugely competitive handicap at Ascot, finishing behind Mustashry but in front of Folkswood, so there are some decent form lines there. Whether Ralph Beckett’s filly is as progressive over a mile as Pirouette is up for debate, but being a half-sister to Romsdal, a high-class stayer, you’d think she’d want a bit further than this, especially on fast ground. Even so, she’ll appreciate a fast pace, something she should get from the likes of Haley Bop and Desert Haze, to name but two possible leaders, and she’s unlikely to be far away off her low weight.

However, the one that I want to be on here is one that we haven’t seen so far this season and one that hasn’t run for over 200 days longer than anything else in the race. Trained by Luca Cumani, HAGGLE has clearly always been highly-regarded, judging by the races she’s been campaigned in, starting with a strong third place in a maiden won by Ballydoyle and with Nemoralia in third. Her maiden win was a cozy affair, thumping Hereawi, now rated 84 and progressing, by two and a half lengths at Newmarket, while her third start was a very creditable third place in a Listed race at that track, won by 1000 Guineas fourth Fireglow.

 The ground was softer than Haggle would have liked it that day, yet she still put in a very good effort and stayed the mile well. The Pivotal filly is from a family that Cumani knows well and he’s been quite cautious with the development of her, presumably as he thinks she’s quite good, so the fact she hasn’t been seen yet this season may well be a positive rather than a negative. A mark of 93 may not seem that lenient on the face of it, but due to the three-year-old’s allowance, she’s 9lb better off with top-weight Gratzie, who’s rated just a pound higher than her, so if inexperience and fitness aren’t issues, she’s entitled to go very well indeed in a race where there may not actually be many fillies with her level of class.

MY Advice

HAGGLE – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor)

[R.I.P John Thomas (JT) McNamara]

John Thomas (JT) McNamara has died aged 41 - What awful news. I'm sure the Galway Festival will fall silent today.

[Saturday Racing - (Inc Scoop6)]

2.35 Punchestown – CME Auctioneers Cross Country Chase

Enda Bolger has dominated this sphere for many seasons and despite his main hope Josies Orders being ruled out of the race, he still saddled the first two home in the La Touche Cup here on Thursday. In fact they reoppose here with Mark Walsh keeping the ride aboard the winner Quantitativeeasing, who found himself in front with a circuit to go and having earned himself a sizeable lead, he couldn’t be pegged back in the closing stages. Today’s race is over a mile shorter than the La Touche Cup but he has won over three miles in the past so I wouldn’t be too concerned about him dropping back in trip.

Nina Carberry opted to ride Cantlow following the withdrawal of Josies Orders in the week which caused a plunge on the eleven-year-old, as he was sent off at odds of 9/2. He was the one who got closest to the winner at the line but there didn’t appear to be any real excuses for him on the day. He didn’t quite jump as well as the winner but he is still relatively new to this discipline so could step forward a good deal from this effort. The result may largely depend on who comes out of the race better but it would have to be viewed as significant that Nina has gone for this horse ahead of the La Touche Cup winner.

Looking at the rest of the field, the three Peter Maher runners look most likely to threaten Enda Bolger’s dominance and the top horse Mtada Supreme arrives here on the back of a handicap chase win at Clonmel in March. He is no stranger to these obstacles having run over them at this meeting last year but he arrives here in good form this time around so can’t be dismissed. The youngest of the trio is the eight-year-old Oscar Day who won a point this time last year but has been out of form of late, including here on Tuesday.

Shortlist

Quantitativeeasing

Cantlow

 
3.10 Punchestown – Madra Irish Dog Foods Handicap Chase

This 3m6f chase often takes a bit of winning and with eighteen runners set to go to post this year, it is hard to eliminate any of the runners with any certainty.
The weights are headed by Sandra Hughes’ Irish Grand National winner Thunder And Roses who was pulled up when bidding to defend his title at the end of March. He won the Irish National off a mark of 136 last year and runs here off a mark of 144 but in truth he has failed to fire so far this term. His connections will be hoping that fitting him with a visor for the first time will rejuvenate the eight-year-old although it is likely to be tough with top weight on his back.

Also towards the head of the weights is Harry Fry’s Fletchers Flyer who is no stranger to success at this meeting having won a bumper here back in 2014. He has yet to get off the mark over fences in three attempts but when you consider the horses he has finished behind include Onenightinvienna, Blaklion and Drumacoo, the form looks slightly better. He has been given an initial handicap mark of 138 which looks fair enough and he looks a likely member of the shortlist.

Tony Martin’s Heathfield won this race twelve months ago and was well fancied in the Scottish Grand National a couple of weeks ago but was never in contention and was pulled up before the third last. Clearly connections were expecting better and despite being 13lb higher than last year, it would be no surprise to see him go well again here. Barry Geraghty favours him over the other McManus runners in the field and if the blinkers have the desired effect, he could go very close to defending his title.

Imagine The Chat runs here for Rebecca Curtis, a yard which has already landed one handicap this week with Irish Cavalier. She also saddled Audacious Plan to be second in this race last year so it is interesting that she is sending this seven-year-old over for the race. He looked a chaser on the up when winning impressively at Newbury in December but has been a little disappointing since then. He ran well at Navan last time and whilst the step up in trip is an unknown, he has very little weight on his back so could benefit from a patient ride.

Others to mention include The Job Is Right whose jumping tends to let him down in these sorts of contests but when completing he has a pretty good record. He does have plenty of weight as well has some high class form to his name over fences. Jim Dreaper’s Sizing Coal could be one who prefers the quicker ground and if he bounces back from a below-par run in the Midlands National, he shouldn’t be too far away.

Shortlist

Fletchers Flyer

Heathfield

Imagine The Chat

3.50 Punchestown – Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Mares Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

Willie Mullins has dominated the last three renewals of this race and looks set for a fourth win in succession with Limini. The five-year-old was a most impressive winner of the inaugural Grade 2 Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and was far from disgraced when finishing third in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, dropping back in trip and taking on the boys. She ran too freely last time out so the return to 2m2f should work in her favour. It won’t be an easy task stepping out of novice company for the first time straight into a Grade 1 but she looks as though she has the constitution to handle it and is the next in the seemingly endless line of potential star mares to emanate from Closutton in recent seasons.

A horse that really caught the eye at Cheltenham was Legacy Gold when finishing third in the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle. She could have potentially finished a lot closer to Vroum Vroum Mag had she not made a bad blunder at the final flight and seems to have quickly recaptured the form she showed in bumpers and as a novice a couple of seasons back. It is interesting that connections have again pitched her into the highest level given she remains on a fairly handy mark and could well have made an impact in handicaps, but she clearly has talent and has a cracking each-way chance.

Slowmotion receives a handy 10lb weight-for-age allowance as a four-year-old which makes her on balance the best weighted horse in the field.  The French import looked as though she needed the run at Limerick back in March when beaten by half a length as the well fancied Evens favourite. She bounced back in no uncertain terms though when victorious in a Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival, taking on the boys and well and truly putting them to the sword. She is the least exposed runner in the field and there is no telling where the ceiling is with so she must be feared.

Shortlist

Limini

Legacy Gold

Slowmotion

 
4.25 Punchestown – AES Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (Grade 1)

For a six-runner contest, this looks like a fascinating affair with each of the runners having some sort of chance. It Is another race that Willie Mullins has dominated recently with the last three wins and his triumvirate look in pole position to increase that record here.

Cap d’Aubois is a completely unknown quantity having only had the one run over hurdles in France back in December. He was a comfortable winner on that occasion but may find this too tough on his debut for new connections. His stablemate Let’s Dance has more solid credentials even though she remains a maiden over hurdles. She finished a close-up third in a Mullins 1-2-3 in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle before going on to finish fourth in the Triumph at Cheltenham, two places behind stablemate Apple’s Jade. On that evidence, it would be difficult to see her reversing the form, especially given the manner of the Gigginstown filly’s victory in the Grade 1 Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle at the Aintree Festival earlier this month.

She was mightily impressive that day, looking like the winner throughout until well clear of the rest of the field at the second last flight. The winning distance of a staggering 41 lengths didn’t flatter her in the slightest as she was heavily eased at the finish. She was certainly suited by the ease in the ground compared to when second in the Triumph and conditions here look like falling somewhere in between those at Cheltenham and Aintree.

The Triumph winner, Ivanovich Gorbatov, unsurprisingly made hay on the good ground given his flat-bred pedigree. The soft ground cannot be counted as a complete excuse for his demolition at Aintree though and it may just be that Mullins’ filly has improved past him. Nevertheless, he remains one of the top juveniles on either side of the Irish Sea and could well put up a better fight this time round if the ground comes up on the good side.

JP McManus’ other runner cannot be discounted in the slightest even though she is the apparent second string on jockey bookings. Jer’s Girl was a most impressive winner of the EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival and has fully earned her place in the field. However, the step up to 2m4f really seemed to bring the best out of her so the drop back to two miles may not prove to be entirely in her favour.

Even the Gigginstown second-string Tocororo cannot be completely discounted given the shock results that have been flying in this week. It would seem as though he really needs to get his toe in the ground though which unless there is a deluge of rain, doesn’t seem likely at present.

Shortlist

Ivanovich Gorbatov

Apple’s Jade

5.00 Punchestown – Palmerstown House Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase

A very competitive handicap chase and the first horse worth a mention is Heaney for Tom Taaffe, who will be hoping for a bold showing in a race run in memory of his father. The Flemensfirth gelding hasn’t shown much in two starts this season but four of his five wins have come on ground no worse than yielding, and he also ran well when fifth in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2015 off an 8lb higher mark. The step up in trip to 3m1f is another plus an providing the ground is similar to what is has been all week, a bolder showing can be expected from the nine-year-old, with plenty more in his favour than on his last two visits to a racecourse.

A low weight has also been key in this race recently with eight of the last 10 winners carrying 10st13lb or less, and despite being at the head of the betting for this, it may pay to look past the Irish National winner Rogue Angel. Races over marathon trips often leave their market and after Bless The Wings (2nd to Rogue Angel) ran no sort of race earlier in the week, it’s hard to have much confidence in the Mouse Morris horse.

Kayf Supreme looks likely to go off favourite on the back of a 17-length romp at Thurles last time out. This dual point winner clearly appreciated the step up in trip under Rules and Jim Dreaper’s seven-year-old could prove to be well-handicapped off 126. The main concern would be that he has shown a preference for slow ground, and he doesn’t have any experience in a big-field handicap of this nature. Nonetheless he has to be considered and cannot be passed over lightly for shrewd connections.
British-trained runners have won two of the last five renewals and the Rebecca Curtis-trained Potters Cross looks the best of the two challengers this time around. 

After a long absence he finally put it together last time out at Newbury, scoring at the third time of asking over fences. He was rated 134 over hurdles so his mark of 120 here could prove to be on the lenient side and it would no surprise to see him run well for a yard already on the score-sheet at the Festival this week.

Shortlist

Heany

Potters Cross

Kayf Supreme

 
5.35 Punchestown – Coral Handicap Hurdle

Another big-field handicap to get stuck into here, this time over hurdles. No favourites have been successful in this race in the last ten years, which seems quite amazing when you consider Willie Mullins has trained five of the last ten winners. None of the last ten winners have carried over 10st12lb either, so it has proven a safe bet to ignore those at the top of the handicap.

The green and gold hoops of JP McManus will be carried by no less than seven of the 25 runners and the two that appeal most are the Noel Meade-trained pair Waxies Dargle and De Name Escapes Me. The former displayed vast improvement went stepping up to two and a half miles in the Coral Cup, finishing a very credible sixth behind Gordon Elliott’s Diamond King. Earlier in the season he had been well-fancied for two valuable 2m handicap in England, the Greatwood and the Ladbroke, so he’s clearly well-regarded. Ger Fox takes off a valuable 3lbs and there promises to be more to come from this horse over this sort of trip. The latter is much more of an unknown but is very unexposed and comes here fresh having been off the track 154 days since winning a Fairyhouse novice hurdle. Jonathan Moore takes off 5lbs giving him a light weight, and given connections, this could well have been the plan for a long time.

Desoto County was fancied to win at Fairyhouse last time out having missed the cut at Cheltenham. The highly-rated Jack Kennedy is back on board this time and with his 3lb claim a huge plus for a rider with such talent, Gordon Elliott’s charge cannot be dismissed lightly up in distance. However, the terrible record of favourites somewhat dampens the enthusiasm.

The final horse for the shortlist is Cassells Rock for Tony Martin. He hasn’t been seen over hurdles since last August when winning at Down Royal. He’s had four runs on the Flat since, including his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh 27 days ago. That was likely to have been a pipe-opener for this and he looks very interesting lurking at the bottom of the weights.

Shortlist

Waxies Dargle

Cassells Rock

De Name Escapes Me

6.10 Punchestown – K Club Hotel, Spa & Ryder Cup Venue INH Flat Race

An absolute mind-boggler to conclude proceedings, courtesy of a bumper for horses which have never run under Rules, therefore it doesn’t look the most sensible race to be getting heacily financially involved in.

To make things even trickier only seven of the 25 runners have run in the Point-to-Point arena so there is very little form to go on.  However, of those with some sort of form in the book, Rathnure Rebel catches the eye having easily defeated Dan Skelton’s Three Musketeers (now rated 152 over fences) on his sole Point run back in April 2014. His current well-being does have to be taken on trust given he hasn’t been seen since, so it may be worth looking for market signals as to what can be expected after his 734 lay-off, but his Point form clearly reads well in the context of this race.

The Willie Mullins yard isn’t represented here but his brother Thomas saddles Tikken Away, who will be ridden by his nephew Patrick. This five-year-old son of Tikkanen is unraced to date but he does appeal on paper being a half-brother to the yard’s Sir Scorpion, who was runner-up on his debut in a valuable Sales bumper at Fairyhourse, when only finding the 2015 Weatherbys Champion Bumper winner, Moon Racer, too good.

Another one of the unraced runners to catch the eye on paper is Arthur Moore’s Professional Guest, who is a half-brother Nicky Richards’s extremely talented chaser Eduard, whom himself was a bumper winner on debut. He is forecast to be around the 20/1 mark and could easily out-run those odds.

Shortlist

Rathnure Rebel

Tikken Away

Professional Guest

[Friday Racing - (Punchestown Day 4)]

3.40 Punchestown – KFM Hunters Chase

Last year’s winner Shin A Vee returns to the scene of the crime and hasn’t been seen since winning with plenty up his sleeve. Denis Cullen’s gelding was at the veteran stage last year but now at the age of thirteen it is even more difficult to know how much ability he retains following his absence. He also has to concede weight to all of his ten rivals here which will make life more difficult but the form of a large part of the field does not add up to much so he looks worth a place on the shortlist.

We highlighted Peter Maher’s Enniskillen earlier this week in the race won by Wish Ye Didn’t and he ran with great credit to finish second behind Enda Bolger’s charge. Clearly his trainer considers him to be none the worse for that run and has left him in here, which looks a weaker race than the one he contested on Tuesday. He shouldn’t be too inconvenienced by the drop back in trip to 2m4f and he would have to be the one to beat if none the worse for his latest run.

Others of interest include Ross O’Sullivan’s Hasty Times who was third in a similar contest at Down Royal in March. He dead-heated for first over three miles prior to that and is fitted with cheekpieces for the first time in a bid to sharpen the eleven-year-old up. He has done most of his racing on slower ground than he will encounter tomorrow, but he still looks one to watch closely.

In terms of jockey bookings it must be significant that Jamie Codd is riding Grangeclare Rosa who was pulled up in a point on his last racecourse start. She did win the time before that in the pointing field and she arrives here with a lot less miles on the clock than most of her rivals. I don’t think it is unfair to suggest that she has the best jockey in the race on her back and whilst that doesn’t mean she will win the race, it can often means that horses finish closer than they would normally.

Shortlist

Enniskillen

Grangeclare Rosa

Shin A Vee

4.20 Punchestown – EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase

Heading the weights, Avant Tout sets a decent standard for the rest to aim at and looks to be Willie Mullins’ biggest chance in this, despite having Sambremont also entered. His two-length defeat of the reopposing Lord Scoundrel at Limerick at the start of April reads pretty well in form terms, as does his staying-on ninth in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham in March. He’s only rated a pound higher officially than that last win, so there shouldn’t be an issue with his mark, especially considering he has more improvement to come over these obstacles. Even though Lord Scoundrel has a 10lb pull at the weights on that run, with 7lb claimer A J Fox on board, I’m not sure we’ll see the form reversed.

Jockey bookings also suggest that Lord Scoundrel is the second string for Gigginstown, with Bryan Cooper on Marinero, a first-time handicap chaser off a mark of 135. Connections clearly feel that it could be a lenient mark, even though his bare form over fences isn’t anything to shout about. A six-length second to Bonny Kate in soft ground at Fairyhouse is his best effort so far chasing, but this is a horse that it is clearly felt can do much better than he has so far.

Marlbrook is a very unexposed chaser from the Colm Murphy yard and with Barry Geraghty in the plate for owner JP McManus, you have to take this eight-year-old seriously given how impressive his last run at Naas was – winning easily by six lengths, making all.  However, he has gone up 11lb for that and now encounters better ground than he’s ever run on before. He may have more to come, but at prices around 5/1, he looks opposable.

Nicky Henderson has entered Full Shift in the race and has the services of Mark Walsh to count on – it could be that the number two might just outdo the number one for JP McManus here. Full Shift’s last two runs, in the Plate Handicap at Cheltenham and in a Listed Chase at Ayr, were both decent efforts, so off the same mark as both of those runs, he looks set to go very well on the yielding ground he’ll get here. No horse under 10/1 has won this race in the last four renewals, so at 12/1 Full Shift could make it five.
Guitar Pete could also be a danger at a big price if he finally returns to the form he showed when finishing third in the Triumph and winning the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree in 2014. It’s a big ask after a few disappointing runs over fences, but off a mark of 134 and back on his preferred decent ground, he could give Nina Carberry a decent spin at odds of around 20/1.

Shortlist

Avant Tout

Full Shift

Marinero

 
4.55 Punchestown – Hanlon Concrete European Breeders Fund Glencraig Lady Mares Handicap Chase

For a race of this nature, this looks like a cracking contest and although many of the field sneak in off featherweights, it may pay to stick with the classier types at the head of the handicap.

Emily Gray has proven to be a revelation since returning to fences this season, winning four mares’ chases include two Listed races and a Grade 3. The eight-year-old had spent the early part of her career in Ireland and following a buoyant spell with Kim Bailey, has returned to her former connections in fine fettle. It remains to be seen whether a mark of 148 is too steep for her in a handicap but her level of form in mares’ races is up there with the best and she must have a big role to play.

Receiving 12lb from the top weight is Bonny Kate who was many people’s idea of the Irish Grand National winner at the back end of last month. She travelled well for much of the race before tiring out if it late on so the drop back in trip here would like to play right into her favour. She was a most impressive winner of a Grade 2 Mares Novice Chase on her previous start and produced an even more eye-catching performance prior to that when landing the Punchestown Grand National Trial. On a mark only 11lb higher than that victory in January, she has to have a leading chance.

One that could have a hand to play from lower in the pecking order is Indian Fairy on her return to chasing. Eoin Doyle’s charge was a decent second at Fairyhouse on her latest over fences and now finds herself on only a 1lb higher mark. Connections have been shrewd in protecting what could be a lenient move by the handicapper by campaigning her over hurdles since then and she was a nice winner of a mares hurdle at Limerick earlier this month. Given that she arrives in clearly quite good nick, and that capable conditional Donagh Meyler takes a handy 5lb off her back, she could prove to be potentially very well treated.

Shortlist

Emily Gray

Bonny Kate

Indian Fairy

5.30 Punchestown – Betdaq Punchestown Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

Despite notable absentees in the shape of defending champion Faugheen and ante-post favourite Annie Power, this race still looks to have a strong line-up and the trends suggest that the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham is often a solid guide, with 10 of the last 17 winners having run in the race. My Tent Or Yours (2nd), Identity Thief (6th) and Sempre Medici (PU) all ran at Cheltenham, the first-named doing so following an absence of nearly two years.

Another strong trend is that all of the last ten winners finished in the first three on their most recent outing, with sixth of those coming here on the back of victories. With that in mind, we should be wary of selecting horses who ran below-par last time, in this case, that means Sempre Medici and Identity Thief who both finished outside the places in the Champion Hurdle as well as Tony Martin’s Ted Veale who unseated his rider in the Guinness Handicap Chase here on Wednesday.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the betting market has been a strong guide in recent years with six winning favourites and the only winner in the last decade to have been bigger than 3/1 was Silent Oscar who won at 20/1 in 2007. My Tent Or Yours and Vroum Vroum Mag are vying for favouritism for this race at around the 2/1 mark with Identity Thief next best at around 7/2.

With all things considered, I find it hard to get away from the front three in the market and My Tent Or Yours has done very little wrong in his two starts this season. He just didn’t stay over 2m4f in the Aintree Hurdle last month but once again looked a live danger to Annie Power before she kicked away. It is clearly a concern that horses who ran at Aintree have so far performed below expectations this week but he may even have needed his first couple of runs so there could be more to come. He has proven already this term that he is still up to Grade 1 level and he looks the most likely winner in my book.

Clearly Vroum Vroum Mag has plenty going in her favour as she tackles Grade 1 company against the boys for the first time and she was taken out of her race at Sandown in order to run here. She won with plenty in hand in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham when we last saw her and she must be pretty fresh having only had four well-spaced runs this term. She receives 7lb from all of her rivals here which can make a big difference but she will need a career best to get her head in front here.
Identity Thief needs to bounce back from a below-par effort at Cheltenham in March. Perhaps he was still nursing the scars from his Leopardstown defeat in December and you couldn’t rule him out on this sort of ground. The form of the Henry De Bromhead yard isn’t great at the moment which would be a slight concern and he would also need a career best to find his way into the Winner’s Enclosure.

Of the rest, I think the market has got the chances of Fethard Player and Ted Veale about right at 33/1 and bigger, but big things were reportedly expected of Sempre Medici prior to the Champion Hurdle and he could be the surprise package in the race. He finished in front of Identity Thief at Fairyhouse this time last year and could run well at around the 14/1 mark.

Shortlist

My Tent Or Yours

Vroum Vroum Mag

 
6.05 Punchestown – Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

This race has turned out to be a bit of a minefield when it comes to the trends with seven of the nine runners all on a level playing field. However, Willie Mullins’ domination of his race in the last three years, especially with the favourite, cannot be ignored and A Toi Phil must be considered as a leading contender. The six-year-old hasn’t proven to be completely straightforward but the manner of his victory in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown, with subsequent dual Grade 2 winner Acapella Bourgeois seven lengths back in second, was most impressive and the penny finally seemed to have dropped. He didn’t acquit himself particularly well in the Neptune at The Festival but this is a return to much calmer waters and a big run is expected.

Fairyhouse Easter Festival form tends to come to the fore here and Jer’s Girl arrives with the most impressive performance in her back pocket. J P McManus acquired the daughter of Jeremy prior to her running in the EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final and was immediately rewarded as she bounded clear for a dominant 13-length victory. The step up to 2m4f and the drying ground seemed to bring out a huge amount of improvement from her and similar conditions here look sure to be in her favour. Four-year-olds have been few and far between in this race but the weight-for-age allowance, coupled with her concession for being filly, puts her exceptionally well in running off a weight a full 18lb less than the rest of the field.

Disko arrives here fresher than most having not been seen since dismantling the field in a Naas novice hurdle back in early November. He finished second to Bellshill in the Champion Bumper at the Punchestown Festival last year and remains fairly unexposed as a hurdler having had only two starts over the sticks. Following his last win, connections were waxing lyrical about his ability so it is a bit surprising that Bryan Cooper has opted for A Toi Phil instead but nevertheless he has to be feared in what looks to be a wide open contest.

Shortlist

Jer’s Girl

A Toi Phil

Disko

6.40 Punchestown – Star Best For Racing Coverage Novice Hurdle

A small but select field of nine here, with Bello Conti being odds-on favourite for the Willie Mullins and Gigginstown team. His pair of fourth-places at Cheltenham and Aintree, both behind Yorkhill, set a clear standard on form and if he runs up to that again, he could be hard to beat. The drop in trip to the bare two miles should suit on ground that should have a bit of cut left in it and he could carry on the great record of favourites in this race – won six of the last seven renewals.

His biggest threat could be from his own stable, with the familiar Ricci colours being carried by Koshari, another son of Walk in the Park, sire of Douvan to name but one. This will be his first run in Ireland after two in France and it’s difficult to quantify how good this four-year-old could be. Although he won his last start very cheekily indeed, running on under hands and heels to win by a short neck, the second in the race didn’t boost the form on his next run, finishing well down the field. However, the market rates this horse a 9/2 shot against the favourite, so there must be some support coming out of the woodwork.

Outside of the top two, a couple catch my eye – Fire In His Eyes runs over hurdles again after dropping back to convincingly win a Wexford  bumper over two and a half miles . His first hurdles run at Leopardstown behind Chain Gang didn’t produce much encouragement, but he’s clearly improved a lot judging by the style of that bumper win. Davy Russell gets the ride on this interesting contender from AJ Martin’s stable and while this two mile trip looks to be a bit short for him, he could still play a hand.

Three Wise Men runs for Henry De Bromhead and if he can scrub up his jumping, he’s got a decent chance at around 9/1. Even though he clouted quite a few hurdles and looked quite green on his last run, he still won nicely – there should be a lot more to come if Noel Fehily can keep him settled and get him into a good rhythm with his jumping. If you’re looking for an alternative to the Mullins-trained duo, he could certainly be the one to upset the applecart.

Shortlist

Bello Conti

Koshari

Three Wise Men

 
7.10 Punchestown – Racing FX Flat Race

This race has thrown up some smart performers in the past with Fletchers Flyer and Champers On Ice having landed the last two renewals so whatever the result, the form of this year’s renewal could be worth keeping an eye on.

As with most bumpers, the first place to start is with Willie Mullins and he is represented by Some Neck who has finished second in all three of his bumper starts so far. The latest of these came at Fairyhouse in March where he got collared close home by Gordon Elliott’s Miracle In Medinah. Patrick Mullins has pressed on quite early on his last couple of runs and it might just be that this five-year-old will come into his own over this 2m2f trip.

There is plenty of strong opposition for him to worry about though including Monbeg Notorious  who won an Irish point in May last year and was fourth behind the smart Invitation Only on his first start in bumpers. He stayed on in the closing stages on that occasion so should benefit from the step up in trip and the yard are no stranger to bumper winners at these big meetings.

Noel Meade also saddles an interesting runner in the shape of Red Giant whose only previous run in a bumper saw him finish fourth in the Goffs Land Rover Bumper at this meeting last year. The winner of that race was the smart Petit Mouchoir and the third home was a multiple winner of bumpers subsequently. Clearly the five-year-old has had his issues in the meantime but he is a must for the shortlist given his form.

This race went the way of a British raider last year so we must respect Philip Hobbs’ No Comment who comes here having finished second on his first two bumper starts. The two horses that beat him have smart form in Graded company to their name so he must come into the reckoning here. Jamie Codd gets the leg up in the JP McManus silks and it would be no surprise to see him be popular in the market.

Others to keep a close eye on could be Jessica Harrington’s Bright Tomorrow who ran behind Battleford when last seen and Paul Nolan’s point winner Crazyheart who has shaped as though he will appreciate the step up in trip on his first two starts in bumpers.

Shortlist

Red Giant

Some Neck

No Comment

 
7.45 Punchestown – Racing Post Champion Hunters Chase

This is a race that clearly revolves around On The Fringe, who is bidding for his second treble of big Hunter Chases in the last two seasons. The eleven-year-old was mightily impressive at Aintree, winning by a long way, while he was value for better than his Cheltenham winning margin over the reopposing Marito. Nina Carberry is reunited with Enda Bolger’s top class hunter chaser after missing the Aintree Fox Hunters and that’s certainly no barrier to success and neither will trip or ground be, so he’s certainly a deserved 10/11 favourite. He’s also a big winner on the trends, being trained by Enda Bolger, winning last time out, running in the Cheltenham Foxhunters and being a clear favourite.

If you’re looking for some value against him, Marito stands out on his Cheltenham run and will be fresher than the favourite, so it’s possible that the tables could be turned, especially given his jockey can claim his 5lb this time. Similar comments apply to Cheltenham third Paint The Clouds, who rarely seems to run a bad race under Sam Waley-Cohen, finishing in the top four in all of his last nine runs – he’s an each-way bet to nothing if you like that sort of thing at 7/1, but as the trends suggest, British challengers are vulnerable for win purposes, so he looks set for a place.

Salsify would be a popular winner of the race, but he seems not to be at the same level as his old self this season judging by his four runs so far. He looks like could also do with a bit more cut in the ground at this stage in his career if he’s to upset the favourite, so it seems a long shot, even if his last time out win and participation in the Leopardstown Hunter Chase in February give him a trends-based boost.

Shortlist

On The Fringe

Marito

Paint The Clouds

[Thursday Racing (Punchestown Day 3)]

3.40 Punchestown – JLT Handicap Hurdle

This looks an extremely open contest and a nightmare for punters to start Thursday of the Punchestown Festival, so it may be best to look at those horses with a bit of decent form in this type of race. AJ Martin’s Dollar and a Dream has been running nicely in contests similar to this, defeating The Brock Inn, who reopposes today, at Fairyhouse last time out. He looked better value for that three quarters of a length win and the subsequent 7lb rise will be largely offset by jockey Donagh Meyler’s 5lb claim, so should go well on the better ground that he likes, hence his shortening price of 9/1.

It’s strange to see a horse only once-raced over hurdles in one of these rough-looking races, but Ross O’Sullivan’s Tetraites is a very interesting contender indeed. The son of Danehill Dancer absolutely bolted up at Galway over two miles in September, under none other than Ruby Walsh, so they must think a fair deal of this horse to have booked that certain jockey. While Walsh doesn’t ride today, the extremely capable Mark Walsh does, again interesting as JP McManus has two horses running in the same race. A mark of 116 is a shot in the dark from the handicapper and could well give the horse a real chance in a competitive race on ground he’ll enjoy – worth a punt at 16/1.

One contender sat near the top of the weights who seems to have a good chance here is JP McManus’ second string (on jockey bookings anyway) Joshua Lane. Judging by his eight-length third behind the useful Tycoon Prince back over C&D in October and his five and a half length third behind Blazer at Leopardstown in unsuitably heavy ground, this is a horse with plenty of ability. He was third in Silver Concorde’s Cheltenham Champion Bumper victory in 2014 so I find it hard to believe that there isn’t a bit more to come. A mark of 122 may be his highest to date, but he does have Jonathan Moore claiming 5lb off his back, so he has to hold a chance at 12/1 in a tough contest to call.

Completing the shortlist at a fairly large price is Neil Mulholland’s Pinkie Brown. While only having had five starts over hurdles, this four-year-old could find the fitting of a hood for the first time the making of him, especially in a large field like this. If he can settle better, he could prove significantly superior to his mark of 120 and, being related to Fox Norton who is a very useful performer indeed, you would expect that Mulholland can eke out the required improvement to go well here. Noel Fehily takes the ride, which is always a positive, and the better ground could help this juvenile hurdler outrun his 25/1 price.

Shortlist

Dollar And A Dream

Tetraites

Joshua Lane

Pinkie Brown

4.15 Punchestown – Three.ie Handicap Chase 2m

This looks a decent little contest which could be dominated by Henry De Bromhead. He saddles a pair of likely candidates but both have very different profiles. Days Hotel has been a consistent performer for a number of years and at the age of 11, he still seems to be as good as ever. Back in February he made it 3/3 in the Grade 2 Paddy Power Chase at Naas, his first win since landing that contest two years previously. He was a little below-par in the Normans Grove last time out but even the extra furlong seems to stretch the stamina of this staunch two-miler and a return to the minimum trip will certainly be in his favour. He has proven competitive in handicaps off this mark before and has a leading chance.

De Bromhead’s best chance of success may come in the shape of Sizing Codelco who has not been seen since unshipping Johnny Burke at the first in the Grand Annual. Prior to that, his second to Shaneshill at Naas has proven to be pretty solid form and the fact he has been dropped 5lb for his Cheltenham incompletion can only work in his favour. It is a slight worry that he has unseated his rider on half of his chase starts this season but if Noel Fehily can keep him in check, he is a serious contender.

Rock The World  is another novice that catches the eye if bouncing back from a disappointing display in the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree last time out. The 2m4f looked like it stretched him that day and the return to the minimum trip certainly gives grounds for optimism. He was well supported for the Grand Annual and produced a big run to finish third and a 1lb rise for that performance could prove to be rather lenient. He is fresher than most having had a winter break and is a big player.

Shortlist

Rock The World

Sizing Codelco

Days Hotel

 
4.50 Punchestown – FBD Cross Country Chase For The La Touche Cup 4m1f

Enda Bolger has had a bit of a lean spell in the last five years but his record in this race cannot be ignored and he looks to have a pair of leading contenders again. Both Josies Orders and Quantitaveeasing are faultless on the trends and will be very difficult to beat here.

Josies Orders has looked like being another cross country world beater for Bolger this season, kick-starting his new career in this race last year. He was travelling well until hampered and unseating two out and came back just two days later to land the 3m cross country race in good style. Since then he hasn’t looked back, landing the cross country contests at both Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and International Meeting before going down only narrowly at The Festival. He was staying on strongly at the finish back in March and looks the likeliest winner in the field.

His stablemate Qauntitativeeasing ran well in fourth at Cheltenham back in March and has been relatively lightly-raced this campaign. He has had a couple of spins over hurdles either side of taking the Risk Of Thunder Cross Country Chase at Punchestown in November. He was only narrowly outpointed by Uncle Junior in last year’s renewal and is value to fill one of the places.

Bless The Wings split the pair at The Festival and followed up with a barnstorming performance to finish a short head second in the Irish Grand National. He looks held by the favourite on his cross country runs this year but is evidently in great nick and will likely run a big race, for all that he doesn’t always convince punters that he wants to get his head in front.

Shortlist

Josies Orders

Quantitativeeasing

Bless The Wings

5.30 Punchestown – Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1)

Whilst some races have proved something of a graveyard for favourites over the years, this race has been pretty kind to them with the market leader having come out on top in seven of the last ten renewals. Mouse Morris’ Alpha Des Obeaux current heads the market here having found only the brilliant Thistlecrack to be too good at Cheltenham last time.

One stat that doesn’t suit Mouse Morris’ six-year-old is the fact that 11 of the last 15 winners had won on their most recent start. Only Diamond King, Thousand Stars and Jennies Jewel can boast such credentials in this year’s field.

Proven stamina is also something that has stood horses in good stead over the years with nine of the last fourteen having won over at least 3m. Some of those with questions to answer on that score include One Track Mind, Legacy Gold and Shaneshill, although the latter has been placed over 3m on three occasions.

On form it is hard to get away from the chances of Alpha Des Obeaux who would have won the World Hurdle by a distance had Thistlecrack not been there. He finished 22 lengths ahead of Bobs Worth in third that day and he swerved Aintree in favour of coming here. On his last four starts in Grade 1 company he has finished second but we can’t hold that against him considering he has bumped into the likes of Nichols Canyon, Arctic Fire and Thistlecrack. On official ratings he looks the one to beat and can continue the fine record of favourites in the race.

Diamond King has yet to prove himself at Grade 1 level but has been progressive of late in handicap company and has earned a crack at this sort of level. He was a ready winner of the Coral Cup at Cheltenham and although he tries 3m for the first time here, he can’t be dismissed with any certainty.

Of those at a bigger price, one that catches the eye is One Track Mind who wasn’t beaten far by Reve Du Sivola in Grade 2 company last time. He was closing down the winner at the line so the trip should be no problem and he remains fairly lightly-raced having had only seven races over hurdles.

Shortlist

Alpha Des Obeaux

Diamond King

One Track Mind

 
6.05 Punchestown – Murray Spelman Handicap Hurdle

It can be hard to know where to begin in a race such as this but we will have a go in the hope that we can find the winner. The weights are topped by At Fishers Cross who turned in arguably his best run of the season when fifth in a similar contest to this at Aintree in April. Jonathan Moore seemed to get a good tune out of the nine-year-old that day and he once again takes 5lb off his back here. Clearly on his best form he would be hard to beat but it has been a while since we have seen his best and life could be tough for him with so much weight on his back.

One of the more progressive runners in the field could be Mouse Morris’ Just Cause who seemed to appreciate being ridden more patiently at Fairyhouse last time. He has only gone up 7lb for a pretty ready success that day and he is far from handicapped out of it on that effort. He was strong at the finish over 2m6f last time suggesting this extra distance shouldn’t be an issue and he looks a likely candidate for the shortlist.

Kim Bailey sends Net Work Rouge over for this assignment having been beaten in a novice hurdle at Hexham at the end of last month. That form on the face of it is not up to much but he won twice on quicker ground last autumn which suggests he would probably prefer a sounder surface. With that in mind he could be worth a second look especially when considering that he was thought good enough to run in Grade 2 company on his penultimate start.

The final two to mention are both trained by Gordon Elliott, the first being Casual Approach who has not been seen since finishing third behind Shaneshill over fences in November. He won his first two starts over hurdles prior to that before disappointing at Cheltenham in October but is worth considering back in handicap company. However it may be better to look towards Jury Duty who was staying on all the way over 3m last time at Fairyhouse and races here off the same mark. Jack Kennedy takes a useful 3lb off his back and with very little weight, he gets the nod ahead of his stablemate for the shortlist.

Shortlist

Just Cause

Net Work Rouge

Jury Duty

6.40 Punchestown – Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade 1)

This week has been a funny one so far with Vautour and Yorkhill both getting turned over but surely Douvan can’t be knocked off his perch in this contest. The fact that six of the last ten winners ran in the Arkle and five of the last 19 ran in the Maghull Novices’ Chase suggest that Douvan has plenty going in his favour and as long as his Aintree race hasn’t taken too much out of him it is hard to see anything getting near him. He has beaten all of his rivals at one time or another throughout the season and barring accidents, he should notch a fifth Grade 1 win of the campaign.

It is hard to find much encouragement for any of the other runners although Ttebbob could benefit from having missed both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. He looked pretty smart at the beginning of the season and with the Harrington yard in fine form at present, he could be the one to serve it up to the favourite.

Shortlist

Douvan

Ttebbob

 
7.15 Punchestown – Setanta Sports Mares Novice Hurdle

Willie Mullins has won two of the last three renewals of this race and has three representatives in his head to add to that tally. There was plenty thought of Myska in the early part of the season where she beat Harry Fry’s Jessber’s Dream by two and a half lengths. However she came off the rails after that, finishing last of five at Punchestown in January before being pulled up at Fairyhouse at the end of last month. On official ratings she is a long way clear of her rivals but she has plenty to prove after her last couple of starts.

He also has an interesting runner in the shape of Ria D’Etel who won over hurdles at the first time of asking at Auteuil in September. The form is hard to weigh up but she won by ten lengths on the day so must be pretty smart. She has since joined the Mullins yard and whilst she will need to be fit on her first run since September, she carries very little weight and is one of the less exposed in the field.

Miss Estela has always been highly thought of by connections and managed to get off the mark over hurdles at Exeter earlier this month. Her trainer believes that she wants better ground so she should have no problems handling conditions here and her last run was just her second since having her wind done. She has always been thought highly of by connections and if she can continue her improvement, she could find herself in the mix.

However, the one they all have to beat is Gordon Elliott’s Missy Tata who was fourth in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham in March, finishing just four lengths behind the winner Diego Du Charmil. She seemed to handle the ground well at Cheltenham and as well as receiving weight all around, she gets an extra 3lb off her back courtesy of Jack Kennedy’s claim. Her trainer continues to find himself amongst the winners and she looks the one to beat.

Shortlist

Missy Tata

Ria D’Etel

Miss Estela

 
7.45 Punchestown – Kildare Post (C & G) INH Flat Race 2m

Willie Mullins landed this with Yorkhill last year and he could well have another former Irish pointer set for big things in the shape of Invitation Only. He was snapped by the powerful Wylie/Mullins combination on the back of his win at Ballynoe last March and created a great impression on his first run for a year when striking at odds-on in facile fashion at Navan last month. Connections thought that he could have been a Cheltenham horse, which is a compliment given the strength of their squad, and he arrives here as one of the most exciting bumper horses in training.

His sternest competition could come from Dermot Weld’s First Figaro who performed better than the result suggests in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, staying on into ninth whilst Davy Russell had lost an iron. His overall profile isn’t particular convincing given he has finished runner-up on three separate occasions but he has shown enough to suggest that he certainly has ability and his second to subsequent Albert Bartlett third Champers On Ice at Punchestown last year, was still an eye-catching performance.

One that could be worth keeping an eye on at a price is Thumb Stone Blues who returns to bumpers having finished in the frame in a pair of maiden hurdles earlier in the year. He is one of the most experienced runners in the field and has shown some fairly useful form in five starts. He was a decent winner on his debut at Kilbeggan last May despite being very green throughout and has kept up that level of form since. Connections believe to be a very bright prospect and he has a live shout of a place.

Shortlist

Invitation Only

First Figaro

Thumb Stone Blues

[Wednesday Racing - (Punchestown Day 2)]

3.40 Punchestown – Martinstown Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle

This looks like a devilishly difficult race to try and decipher with the majority of the field having lots more question marks than answers.

Adimelo is one of the likelier types though if he recaptures his form shown when landing a maiden hurdle at Roscommon last July. Alan Fleming’s charge had a lofty reputation (and a hefty price tag to boot) when coming over from France on the back of his win in a Champion Bumper. His debut for his new connections was a pleasing one as he shaped nicely throughout before kicking on up the run-in for the win. He failed to follow that up in a pair of novice events after that though and it remains to be seen whether his opening mark of 121 is a lenient one on his return from over seven months off the track.

Another returning from a long absence is Bank Bonus who has arguably shown the most consistent form in the field, albeit last summer. He was an impressive winner at Perth in July and followed up later that month with a fine performance to finish second in a competitive handicap at the Galway Festival. He was far from disgraced in a rated hurdle at Downpatrick shortly after and must be afforded a chance if ready to go again here.

His stablemate Steamboat Bill is also worthy of consideration on the back of a gutsy win of a Down Royal maiden hurdle back in February. The front two pulled well clear that day and he had to show all of his battling tendencies to hold on to the lead on the run-in. Considering that was in ground much deeper than ideal, it was a pleasing performance and conditions here should prove to be more to his liking.

Adrian McGuinness landed this race three years ago and has a live chance in the shape of Pivot Bridge. The eight-year-old hasn’t proven to be the most consistent over the years put has a decent record at the Punchestown Festival, finishing a good in a handicap hurdle two years ago and a close-up sixth last year. He had his first attempt at 2m4f on his last hurdles start, shaping nicely before taking a tumble at the last. He may have been tiring that day but the better ground here should prove to be in his favour and he is still unexposed at middle distances.

Candlestick is also worthy of a mention from the Jessica Harrington stable on the back of a nice win at Fairyhouse earlier this month. The five-year-old is a well-bred sort but had taken a while to get the hang of things until responding for pressure last time out. He could well be a stark improver now the penny has dropped and is well worth keeping an eye on.

Shortlist

Adimelo

Pivot Bridge

Steamboat Bill

Bank Bonus

4.20 Punchestown – Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle

Willie Mullins’ Balko Des Flos has run in Grade 1 company on his last two starts an in fairness, has run with credit on both outings, finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett and fourth in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. On both occasions he was ridden patiently to get the 3m trip but he seemed to find it hard work late on and it is easy to see why his connections are dropping him back in trip to 2m4f. He looks the pick of the Gigginstown pair and looks a must for the shortlist.

Another with Grade 1 form to their name is Supasundae who was last seen finishing seventh in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He has been keen on both visits to Cheltenham and failed to fire once again there but he failed to improve on his Cheltenham display at Punchestown last season and he steps up in trip here. He clearly has ability but he has plenty of questions to answer at present.

JP McManus paid 23,000 euros for Hard To Call as a foal and having won a point at the first time of asking, he was beaten on his first start under rules in March. He improved on that to win with his head in his chest next time at Limerick and he looks an exciting prospect for chasing in the future. The step up to 2m4f should be no problem for him and if he can continue his progress, he could make his presence felt in this company.

The British raider Baden could also find himself in the mix having been unsuited by the heavy ground at Cheltenham at the end of January. He travelled well for a long way that day before getting tired and considering he won his point-to-point on quicker ground, he should relish the conditions here. There should be improvement to come having had only two starts under rules and he looks to have a strong chance.

Shortlist

Balko Des Flos

Baden

Hard To Call

 
4.55 Punchestown – Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

In terms of age, the six-year-olds look to hold the advantage in this particular contest having been responsible for eight of the last twelve winners, including all of the last five. They make up over half the field this year with seven representatives including leading fancies Bellshill, Acapella Bourgeois and Emerging Force.

Another equally strong trend is that eight of the last twelve horses to be victorious had missed both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, which is perhaps surprising considering the quality of recent winners. If we apply that to this year’s field, it suggests a major negative mark against Bellshill, who ran in the Supreme Novices’ at the Cheltenham Festival and the Sefton Novices’ at Aintree. His stablemates Arkwrisht and Gangster were also both in action at at least one of the major spring festivals.

The Agnelli Motor Park Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse has been a strong guide for this race in the past although horses haven’t necessarily done the double. The most recent horse to run in both and win this race was Morning Assembly who fell at Fairyhouse before coming here to win in 2013. This year, the race went the way of Sandra Hughes’ Acapella Bourgeois and with that having been his second Grade 2 success he has earned a crack at this level.

Willie Mullins’ Bellshill heads the market at around the 2/1 mark but given the poor recent record of favourites, he looks worth taking on at the head of the market. He also seemed to find the 3m stretching his stamina reserves when second at Aintree last time and I wonder whether he might be better over 2m4f.

A must for the shortlist has to be Acapella Bourgeois who has won three of his five starts since coming to Ireland this season. He has won his last two starts in Grade 2 company and whilst he has yet to tackle 3m, he has finished his races over 2m4f off strongly, giving hope that he will enjoy this extra distance. He also showed last time that he handled quicker ground and he looks a major player.

Nicky Henderson’s Beat That was the last British raider to be successful in 2014 and we look to have another leading fancy, in the shape of Emerging Force.  He has been progressive in handicaps this term and seemed to relish the step up to 3m at Doncaster in February. He may well have won next time at Haydock but for unseating at the last and he looks to have earned a tilt at this sort of company.

One at a big price who could be worth chancing is Sandymount Duke who hasn’t been spotted since finishing third at Cheltenham in October. Prior to that he had won four times on the bounce on good ground and that is presumably why he has been absent over the winter. He returns with the Jessica Harrington stable in flying form and although he is a year older than ideal at the age of seven, he can’t be ruled out despite his sizeable odds.

Shortlist

Acapella Bourgeois

Emerging Force

Sandymount Duke

5.30 Punchestown – Bibby Financial Services Ireland Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1)

If you go back five years or so, the Brits had a great record in this race and that trend looks likely to continue here with Cue Card heading the market. The popular veteran has been better than ever this season and looked likely to give Don Cossack a run for his money when tipping up 3 out in the Gold Cup. His dominant performance in the Betfred Bowl showed that he felt no ill effects from his tumble and he sluiced up in no uncertain terms. Don Poli was way back in second that day and there would seem to be no reason why the Mullins runner would reverse that form.

His stablemate, Djakadam, could have a say in matters though and comes out of the race on top on the trends. He is one of only three runners in the race to have winning course form and contested the two key races in the lead up to this, the John Durkan Memorial Chase and the Gold Cup. He was well beaten at Aintree but is a leading player if bouncing back to somewhere near his best.

Shortlist

Cue Card

Djakadam

 
6.05 Punchestown – Attheraces.com Champion INH Flat Race (Grade 1)

Willie Mullins has won four of the last five renewals of this race and he looks likely to dominate again. He has a quality looking sextet headed by the Aintree Champion Bumper winner Bacardys who could be very difficult to beat. He stayed on well into third in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper and kept on strongly to prevail by a length in the Aintree equivalent. He is once again the choice of Paddy Mullins, which suggests he is the first string, and could just have the edge over his stablemate Battleford.

Katie Walsh’s mount must be feared having finished runner-up in both Champion Bumpers so far beaten a combined distance of just over half a length. He is the clear next best ahead of the four-year-old Aspen Colorado. He was the hype horse in the lead-up to the Cheltenham Festival  but hasn’t been seen since making hard work of it in a Leopardstown bumper at the back end of February. His absence may be more down to caution from his trainer as he is still only a juvenile and the fact he arrives here fresh could give the upper-hand on some of his rivals. The handy 10lb weight for age will certainly help as well and he could run a big race.

Shortlist

Bacardys

Battleford

Aspen Colorado

6.40 Punchestown – Guinness Handicap Chase

This looks a typically wide open handicap for the meeting with a mix of progressive chasers as a couple of performers whose marks have taken a tumble in recent months.

We will start with the progressive ones and Barry John Murphy’s Pairofbrowneyes has won his last two starts over fences and comes here attempting to defy a 9lb hike in the weights. His trainer commented following his latest run that he was improving and having won going away on that occasion, the rise doesn’t seem insurmountable.

Another horse on the up is Colms Dream who won impressively over fences at Leopardstown in February, getting a 14lb bump in the weights as a result. He showed he was still in fine form when taking advantage of a much lower hurdles mark at Down Royal last month and today’s jockey Donagh Meyler clearly gets on really well with the seven-year-old, there should be more to come from him at this age, but it is hard to see him being that well-handicapped off a mark of 139.

Instead it may be better to have a second look at the veterans Ted Veale and Captain Conan who were Grade 1 horses at the peak of their powers but come here following a couple of disappointing efforts. The latter has been restricted to just five runs since winning a Grade 1 chase at Aintree in April 2013 and was well beaten in the Ryanair last time. Tony Martin brought Ted Veale back from an absence in March but the nine-year-old failed to fire over hurdles and will need to step forward on what we have seen of late.

The race could be between two horses at opposite ends of the weights, the first being Irish Cavalier who does carry top-weight but Jonathan Moore takes a valuable 5lb off his back. He was fifth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off a 3lb higher mark in November, looking the winner two out but just didn’t get home on the day. He will enjoy this sort of ground and as long as he hasn’t got too much weight on his back, he looks a likely player for the frame.

He could fight out the finish with Pass The Hat who ran well in the SkyBet Chase at Doncaster in January but just failed to see out the 3m trip on that occasion. He was dropped back in trip for the Topham at Aintree but was hampered by fallers and was ultimately well beaten. These regulation fences should be a better reflection of his ability and with Arthur Moore having booked top conditional Jack Kennedy, it would be no surprise to see him go close.

Shortlist

Pass The Hat

Irish Cavalier

Captain Conan

 
7.15 Punchestown – Weatherbys Ireland European Breeders Fund Mares INH Flat Race (Listed Race)

The final race on day two sees the mares take centre stage in the bumper and Augusta Kate is bound to be popular having found only too good in the Grade 2 Mares’ bumper at Aintree. Willie Mullins’ five-year-old was only beaten five lengths when taking on the boys in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and against her own sex, she looks a leading contender.

The Mullins yard are also represented by Glens Harmony, a full-sister to Grade 1 winner Glens Melody who makes her racecourse debut. As a four-year-old she receives over a stone in weight from those at the top and if she can run well at the first time of asking as her sister did, she could be interesting in receipt of weight all around.
Jessica Harrington also has a four-year-old filly in the race by the name of Forge Meadow, who won impressively on her debut at Fairyhouse at the end of March. Her connections confirmed afterwards that she had been working well and that this race was the target so it is no surprise to see her step up in class. She gets nearly a stone from the likes of Augusta Kate at the top and if she can step forward from her debut run, she would have to rate a leading fancy.

There are also a couple of runners from Britain including The Nipper who made it three from three in this sphere when winning the Listed Mares Bumper at Sandown on Imperial Cup day. She made just about all that day but showed signs of inexperience as she drifted across the track under pressure but still managed to hold on to her lead. Nina Carberry looks an eye-catching jockey booking for the Greatrex stable and having handled quicker ground at Bangor in May, she looks likely to run well.

Shortlist

Augusta Kate

Forge Meadow

The Nipper

[Tuesday Racing (Punchestown Day 1)]

3.40 Punchestown – Kildare Hunt Club Fr Sean Breen Memorial Chase For The Ladies Perpetual Cup

A glance down the roll of honour for this race sees the name Enda Bolger appear six times in the winning trainer’s column in the last decade. He is well known for his exploits in cross-country chases on both sides of the Irish Sea and has three runners in this race.

Last year’s winner Wish Ye Didn’t returns to the scene of her latest success but arrives here on the back of three below-par runs this term. There isn’t a great deal of encouragement to take from any of those runs but she has shown her best form on good/good to firm ground in the past, so it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see her run much better with conditions in her favour. Nina Carberry also prefers her over the other two runners for the stable and she looks likely to play a major role in attempting to defend her title.

The seven-year-old Be Positive could be interesting having been off the track for just about two years and he wasn’t beaten that far over these fences the last time we saw him. Clearly his wellbeing is taken on trust but he won this race by eleven lengths two years ago and must be respected.

Should the Enda Bolger reign of supremacy come to an end then the best hope could be Peter Maher’s Enniskillen who was second in this race last year before finishing third to Josie’s Orders just a few days later. He dead-heated in a point-to-point at Punchestown in February and should the Bolger trio fail to fire, he looks one of the more likely ones to pick up the pieces.

Shortlist

Wish Ye Didn’t

Be Positive

Enniskillen

 
4.20 Punchestown – Herald Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m

Yorkhill looks head and shoulders above the rest of the field here and looks likely to deliver a fifth win in eight years for Willie Mullins. Unsurprisingly, the unbeaten hurdler tops the trends as a triple Grade 1 winner who finished in the top two last time out. He drops back in trip here which may well play to his strengths as he did look to be getting tired when winning the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree earlier this month. With the guarantee that he stays further than this trip, his usual running style will come to the fore in a race that has perennially favoured hold-up horses.

It could well be a 1-2 for Mullins as Petit Mouchoir looks to be next best ahead of Ball d’Arc. Both are Gigginstown runners but the Mullins inmate looks to be the first string on jockey bookings and arrives here on the back of a personal best to finish a close second in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at the Aintree Festival. The latter had been in good form this season and was an eye-catching winner of a Grade 2 at Naas back in February (Don’t Touch It 15 lengths back in third). He was well beaten in seventh in the Top Novices’ Hurdle though and may prefer a bit more cut in the ground.

There is an interesting pair of British contenders although those travelling over the Irish Sea don’t have a particularly strong record in this event. Charbel was an impressive winner of the Supreme Scottish Trial and ran a blinder for a long way in the Supreme itself, only fading out of it late on. On his Musselburgh performance, he looks to have the measure of Brain Power, who was 11 lengths back in second, and still looks to be getting the hang of things at present.

Shortlist

Yorkhill

Petit Mouchoir

4.55 Punchestown – Killashee Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) 2m

This race looks as though it could revolve around the form of the Farmhouse Foods Handicap Hurdle won by Clondaw Warrior at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival. Three of the first five that day are in action with Modem looking the most likely candidate of the trio. The six-year-old ran a blinder in third having made some early mistakes and kept on nicely after the last to only be beaten by three-and- three-quarter lengths. Narrowly in front of him at the finish was The Plan Man who shaped nicely having led or disputed for much of the way. He has gone up 4lb for that performance however and now has a career-high mark to contend with. Art Of Payroll returned to hurdling this year after an in-and-out spell over the larger obstacles and has generally acquitted himself rather well. He has proven competitive off his mark of 132 the last twice, including when fifth at Fairyhouse last month. For all he is consistent, he would seem a risky proposition from a win point of view.

The Brits have had an above average record in this race over the years and their challenge is spearheaded by 2014 winner Cool Macavity from the Nicky Henderson stable. He is only 6lb higher than when winning two years ago and arrives here refreshed from a break, as on that occasion. His last run was most pleasing when landing a handicap hurdle at Plumpton back in September and must have a leading chance off only a 2lb higher mark now.

Another that returns from a break is Copy That who hasn’t been seen since landing a competitive handicap at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival. He won in spite of the heavy ground that day and should find conditions here much more to his liking. He does have a 12lb higher mark to contend with here which will be no mean feat to overcome, but he is still very unexposed and could well have the required improvement in the tank.

Automated is another novice worthy of note and wasn’t disgraced when beaten by Ivan Grozny in the Conditionals & Amateurs race at the Aintree Festival. The five-year-old finished well clear of the remainder of the field and showed that a mark of 128 definitely isn’t beyond him. He remains inexperienced in the National Hunt sphere but proved his aptitude for the game on only his fourth hurdles start last time out and is definitely one to consider.

Shortlist

Modem

Cool Macavity

Automated

Copy That

 
5.30 Punchestown – Boylesports Champion Chase (Grade 1)

The decision to redirect Vautour here ahead of a crack at the Punchestown Gold Cup has raised many eyebrows and he sits at the head of the market for this race. One stat he has going in his favour is that French-breds have won five of the last nine runnings as well as the fact that Master Minded, Sizing Europe and Sprinter Sacre have all justified very short odds in recent years. Aside from his fall at Aintree last time, you have to go back to December 2014 to find his last poor run and history suggests that he is likely to bounce back to form here. On official ratings, he stands head and shoulders above the rest of the field and whilst he might not necessarily have things all his own way, he does appear to be the most likely winner.

However, we shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the chances of Special Tiara especially when you consider that ten of the last 13 winners had run in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Henry De Bromhead’s nine-year-old finished third for the second time in March, having jostled for the lead with Un De Sceaux in the early part of the race. Doubters of Vautour may think that 2m may be on the sharp side for him but there is no doubt that Special Tiara is an out-and-out two miler and he is likely to make life difficult for his rivals here.

God’s Own is also worthy of a mention having won the Ryanair Novice Chase over course and distance in 2014. He finished about five lengths behind Special Tiara in the Champion Chase but benefitted from the fall of Vautour when winning at Aintree a couple of weeks later. He tends to show his best form at this time of year and the drier the ground the better for him.

The last one to consider is Nicky Henderson’s Simonsig who has had a number of problems in recent years, having only raced once since March 2013. He suffered a setback following his reappearance at Aintree in November and whilst on his best form he would have a leading chance, it is hard to know how much ability he retains.

Shortlist

Vautour

Special Tiara

6.05 Punchestown – Goffs Land Rover Bumper INH Flat

In the absence of a runner from the Willie Mullins stable it is interesting that Patrick Mullins has been booked by Nicky Henderson to ride his runner Jenkins. The four-year-old won his only start at Newbury by nine lengths at the beginning of the month and his 60,000 euros price-tag suggests he was highly thought of at the sales. It is also worth noting that Nicky Henderson doesn’t send too many runners over for bumpers at this meeting, so he is definitely worth a second look.

Gordon Elliott and Jamie Codd won this last year with Petit Mouchoir and they team up again this year with the once-raced Brelade. He was keen on his first start despite being anchored towards the rear of the field but he picked up smartly in the closing stages to be beaten just half a length by a smart performer in Aspen Colorado. You would hope that he has learnt from that experience and it is significant that Jamie Codd appears to have picked him over the stable’s other runner Hardline, who won a point-to-point by six lengths under Codd in February.

The Noel Meade stable is another which tends to do well at this meeting and they have three representatives in this contest. Two of the three are unraced so it is hard to decipher the pecking order but on jockey bookings at least, Moulin A Vent ridden by Nina Carberry would appear to be the stable first string. The four-year-old was purchased for 55,000 euros in June and looks an interesting contender in the familiar pink silks of Mrs Patricia Hunt.

Shortlist

Brelade

Jenkins

Moulin A Vent

 
6.40 Punchestown – Growise Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1)

With nine runners heading to post for this three miles contest, it is quite difficult to dismiss most of the runners completely. Mouse Morris’ Grand National winner Rule The World drops back into novice company following his Aintree exertions and whilst this would appear an easier task on the face of it, he would probably want the ground to soften up a bit before race time.

Outlander will race in the same colours and comes here having finished a c lose second to Kylemore Lough at Fairyhouse last month. His form suggests that he is up to Grade 1 level over fences but my bigger concern would be the trip as he has never won over further than 2m4f over fences.

The last British-trained winner of the race was Charlie Mann’s Air Force One in 2008 and they have a couple of leading fancies this year, including Harry Fry’s Henryville. The eight-year-old has won two of his three starts over fences, with his only defeat coming outside of novice company in October. He likes the ground on the quicker side so options have been somewhat limited over the winter but he stays well and arrives here fresher than most of his rivals.

One that could be overpriced is Neil Mulholland’s Southfield Royale who was well fancied to land the 4m chase at Cheltenham last time but just didn’t seem to stay the extreme trip. Prior to that his form had been solid, winning a Grade 2 at Doncaster in December before chasing home Tea For Two in Grade 1 company at Kempton. He wouldn’t have much to find with the market leaders in terms of form and with several of these having question marks at the trip, he could run better than his odds suggest.

Shortlist

Outlander

Henryville

Southfield Royale

 
7.15 Punchestown – Donohue Marquees INH Flat Race

Our finale on day one is another bumper which was won two years ago by Dermot Weld’s smart stayer Forgotten Rules. It is clearly too early to say whether any of this year’s crop turn out to be of that level but all of the top yards are represented.

Willie Mullins saddles Cilaos Emery who was quite a cheap buy for Harold Kirk at 7,200 euros as a foal but any bumper runner from this yard needs respecting. The stable’s last winner of this race was back in 2008 but they have enjoyed a fine season in the Grade 1 bumpers, so they must have a fair idea about where they stand.
Kate Harrington has made a name for herself in these sorts of events in recent years riding for her mother Jessica and the pair team up with Someday here. The four-year-old is a half-brother to bumper winner Lifestyle and cost £14,000 when sold as a foal.

Of those with experience, Blairs Cove and Art Of Supremacy both ran in the same Fairyhouse bumper in March, finishing fifth and sixth respectively. Both had to overcome trouble in running and ran promising races for all that they were well-beaten on the day. I would probably just prefer the chances of the latter considering the stable from which it hails.

Shortlist

Cilaos Emery

Someday

Art Of Supremacy

[Saturday Racing Inc. (Bet365 Gold Cup, Celebration Chase)]

2.20 Sandown – The bet365 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

With everything still up for grabs in the quest to become Champion Jump Trainer, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls look likely to slog it out all day and the pair look likely to dominate the opener.

However, Mullins is fancied to come out on top here with VOIX DU REVE. The French import had a lofty reputation upon joining the team at Closutton and was mooted as a Triumph Hurdle contender even before taking to the track for his new connections. His debut didn’t quite go to plan as he could only finish in a dead-heat for second in a Fairyhouse Grade 3 as the odds-on favourite. On the face of it though, that wasn’t a terrible performance given the ground was likely much softer than we would have wanted and his failure to settle early on brought about some needless jumping errors. Triumph plans were shelved on the back of that but he was still held in high enough regard to head to the Cheltenham Festival and contest the Fred Winter. He was quietly supported in the lead up to the race and settled much better this time round. Under an enterprising ride by Ruby Walsh, he made eye-catching headway on the inner and looked to have every chance until crashing out at the last. It would be hard to say that he would have won, but he was staying on best of all and looked likely to overhaul eventual winner Diego du Charmil if traversing the final flight safely. The handicapper has taken note by raising him 5lb but that may not be enough in what looks a much weaker contest here and if feeling no ill effects from his untimely tumble last month, he should take the world of beating.

Nicholls has had his juveniles in fine form this year and looks likely to trouble the selection most with the unexposed Tommy Silver. He had a pleasing debut at Newbury in December, finishing a close second to a more experienced rival in Fixe Le Kap. He was quite rightly well fancied in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle and duly obliged in ready fashion, making all for a pillar-to-post success. He headed to the Cheltenham equivalent as a live outsider and didn’t disgrace himself in seventh, held up out the back before staying on. He is a rangy sort who no doubt will find his forte over fences in the not too distant future but he clearly has a decent level of ability and would be the forecast selection.

Of the remainder, the one that appeals most is Ashoka for the in-form Skelton team. The brotherly jockey and trainer combo of Dan and Harry have enjoyed landmark victories in recent weeks and the string has been in blistering form. Their runner here was beaten 11 lengths by the re-opposing Tommy Silver at Musselburgh last time out but that was off level weights and he now has a 13lb pull with that rival today. Connections suggested that the spring might be his time on the back of his debut win in December and it will be interesting to see how he goes here on the back of a two month absence.

Advice

VOIX DU REVE – 2pts win @ 5/2 (William Hill)

 
 
2.55 Sandown – Bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade 2) 

Philip Hobbs’ Menorah has won the last two renewals of this race and in what looks a fairly moderate field for the Grade, it is hard to rule him out entirely this year. He is most definitely the elder statesman in the race at the age of 11 but hasn’t been seen since finishing third behind Don Poli and Many Clouds at Aintree in December. The absence wouldn’t concern me too much considering that he has gone well fresh in the past but it is hard to know how much ability he retains at this stage of his career. On his best form, he would have an excellent chance but he has to concede weight to most of his rivals here and I think one or two may be able to take advantage of that weight concession.

The market leader looks likely to be Willie Mullins’ Valseur Lido who chased home stablemate Vautour in the Ryanair Chase last time. Prior to that you will recall him taking a dramatic fall in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown where he seemed to have the race at his mercy and he also departed early in the King George at Christmas. That would give his critics a bit of encouragement, especially here at Sandown where jumping is paramount. The race conditions seem to favour him but he is a suspect jumper to say the least and 10/11 is too short despite the fact that if he stands up he will probably win.

Instead it might be worth taking a chance on Willie Mullins’ other runner BALLYCASEY who hasn’t won since November 2014 but he ran well at the Cheltenham Festival this year before running well for a long way in the Grand National last time. He has plenty to find on official ratings with the market leaders but he receives at least 5lb from all of his rivals and is reported to be in good form at home. I can see Paul Townend hunting round on the nine-year-old and if he can stay in the race, he could pick up the pieces should the others fail to fire.

Advice

BALLYCASEY – 1pt win @ 16/1 (William Hill, SkyBet)

3.35 Sandown – Bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1)

This looks another opportunity to see the big two in the two-mile division go head-to-head once more, with Sprinter Sacre looking to confirm his superiority over Un De Sceaux from their meeting in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham.

With the ground looking fairly quick at Sandown Park, clear preference is for Nicky Henderson’s stable star and only significant rain would put his participation in doubt. Sprinter Sacre clearly had the upper hand over his Willie Mullins-trained rival and if he runs, I find it hard to see how the placings would reverse, even if Un De Sceaux got his own way in front. The stiff finish will suit the ten-year-old down to the ground and he should finish an amazing season on a high.

The other worry with the mount of Paul Townend is that he is liable to make a mistake or two – Sandown Park’s railway fences are certainly not the type to forgive any trait of that kind, so he’ll have to be spot on all the way round to make it a real contest with his Cheltenham conqueror. Un De Sceaux looks to be a lot better with a bit of cut in the ground, so any rain before the race would be hugely welcomed by Mullins, who could do with him winning if he’s to challenge for the Trainers’ title.

Paul Nicholls has enetered three in the race; Dodging Bullets, Solar Impulse and Ulck Du Lin, but they look as if they’re running for prize money at best, so in terms of an alternative, it could be best to look at former Champion Chaser Sire De Grugy, who enjoys Sandown Park – unbeaten here over fences – and the tough jumping, stiff finishing test it provides. He was only three-quarters of a length behind Sprinter Sacre in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton Park in December, while he was beaten five lengths by Un De Sceaux at Ascot’s Clarence House Chase in January, so he clearly has to improve to reach the level of the top two, but could mix it for a long way.
It might not be big or clever, but in his pomp, you were lucky to find SPRINTER SACRE at ½ in any race and if he’s anywhere near that kind of level after a brilliant Championship season, Evens could represent decent value for a horse that surely wins if he runs as well as he did at Cheltenham.

Advice

SPRINTER SACRE – 3pts win @ 11/10 (Bet365, Paddy Power)

 
4.10 Sandown – The bet365 Gold Cup Steeple Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) 

In recent times, favourites have had a pretty appalling record in this race although the winners have not been impossible to find – a third of the last 9 winners were sent off at single-figure prices.

With that taken into account, SOUTHFIELD THEATRE is a tentative selection to land back-to-back renewals for Paul Nicholls – and put him firmly on the front foot in the race for the Champion Trainers’ title. The eight-year-old proved to be highly progressive over hurdles and developed into one of the top staying novice chasers last year, running Don Poli close in the RSA Chase. This season hadn’t particularly gone to plan with some below-par performances in a pair of Listed Chases but he seemed to back on the right track in the Ultima Handicap Chase last time, brought down as he was beginning to work his way into contention. I thought he had a great chance in that particular contest so it is a no-brainer to think he will go well again off the same mark.

Most in the field have more questions than answers about their form but the biggest dangers may come from Neil Mulholland’s yard. The Druids Nephew never got involved in the Grand National last time but should find this test and the drying ground firmly in his favour. Denis O’Regan partners him again this afternoon and it may be an idea for him to be positioned more prominently than at Aintree, where he seemed to lose interest.

Like the selection, Carole’s Destrier failed to complete in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, which was a bit of a surprise given that he was quietly fancied. That run seemed to be too bad to be true and if he can bounce back to form, he must be considered a leading player still only 5lb higher than when landing the London National over course and distance back in December.

The final one of the Mulholland trio, The Young Master, arrives here in the best form of the triumvirate and in truth, he rarely runs a bad race. He landed a couple of valuable handicaps as a novice last campaign before just outclassed in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He has again proven to be competitive this campaign, finishing third in the Ultima Handicap Chase last time out, and now finds himself only 4lb higher than his last winning mark. It is easy to forget that he is only a seven-year-old given the amount of experience he has had, and with his best days still in front of him, a big pot of this nature should be well within his compass sooner rather than later.

The last two winners of this race shouldn’t be discounted and Hadrian’s Approach is of most interest having crept in at the bottom of the weights. Nicky Henderson’s charge has had his problems throughout his career but was a deserved winner of this two years ago and arrives here off a 2lb lower mark. He has only had four runs since that win and shaped with promise on his seasonal debut in the Betbright Chase back in February, travelling well before just being found out for a bit of fitness late on. He didn’t get past the first in the Grand National so arrives here fresh and can make his presence felt once again.

Just A Par is up against it given he remains 7lb higher than when successful in this last year. He had disappointed in a couple of hot handicaps early in the season before bouncing back to form when second at Exeter in March. He never got involved in the Grand National latest although still saw out the finish and would have a job on his hands to score a repeat with those exertions only a fortnight behind him.

Advice

SOUTHFIELD THEATRE – 1pt win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power)

4.45 Sandown – Bet365 Select Hurdle (Listed Race) 

Unbeaten in Britain and Ireland, Vroum Vroum Mag deserves her place at the head of the market here. Her smooth win in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival didn’t look to have taken much out of her, so she should be nice and fresh going into this encounter with the boys. Officially, she’s run to a mark of 154 though, not an insurmountable number for a couple of others in this field, so while I certainly find it difficult to see anything else beating her, at a best price 8/11 she may be worth a swerve in the hunt for some value.

Interestingly, Nicky Henderson has decided to move Vaniteux up in trip to 2m5f and return him to hurdles after he unseated in the Arkle at Cheltenham. The seven-year-old did finish second to Rock on Ruby over an extended two and a half miles at Cheltenham back in January 2015, so it’s certainly not impossible that this distance will be within his reach. 154 was incidentally his highest achieved mark over hurdles, so he might be closer to Mullins’ mare than you might think.

One horse for whom the distance won’t be a problem is PTIT ZIG, who has been kept back for most of the Spring by Paul Nicholls after finishing a 12-length second to the sensational Thistlecrack in the Cleeve Hurdle in January, running a very nice race before the subsequent World Hurdle winner bolted up the hill away from him. This is a horse that has recorded an official rating of 159 over hurdles and this does seem to be his optimum trip, so there’s no reason why he won’t go well here. He’s versatile regarding ground conditions, any rain certainly won’t bother him, and his only visit to Sandown (back in April 2013) resulted in a win, so he likes the track too. At 7/1, he could be a bit too big in the market and could be the one to put down the most serious challenge to Vroum Vroum Mag.

Silsol and San Benedeto look to once again be on a prize money hunting mission for Paul Nicholls, while Ubak and Court Minstrel may just find this level above them carrying 4lb more than the rest, even though Gary Moore’s inmate has done some excellent work on his last two starts, third and first in two Grade 3 handicaps at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals respectively.

Advice

PTIT ZIG – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (General)

 
5.20 Sandown – Bet365 Josh Gifford Novices´ Handicap Chase.

This looks a tricky little handicap with a number of horses in here with chances including Calipto who runs for the first time since December. That day he was a disappointing third although it is worth bearing in mind that the winner was subsequent Grade 1 winner Tea For Two. He is clearly of interest on his handicap debut here but he has never really convinced me as a chaser so far and I think he could be worth taking on at the head of the market.

Thomas Crapper has long been touted as a chaser to keep an eye on and he finally managed to get off the mark at the twelfth attempt at Newbury earlier this month. The cheekpieces seemed to do the trick that day and having gone up just 3lb for that success, he should still be competitive off his revised mark.

Another one of interest is Emma Lavelle’s Junction Fourteen who won his first two starts over the larger obstacles including the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase at Wincanton in November. He attempted to concede weight to all his rivals in a Grade 2 at Ascot next time but must have been out of sorts because he was well beaten before weight even became a factor in the race. Clearly his wellbeing has to be taken on trust but he doesn’t look unfairly treated off 141 and he could play a big part if ready to go on his return to action.

However, the one who takes my eye the most is one of Paul Nicholls’ other runners AS DE MEE who has plenty of form here, having won the EBF Final over hurdles last season and he has been placed twice in Grade 1 company at Sandown this term. The most recent of those was finishing six lengths behind Bristol De Mai here in February which was a good effort and I think he can be forgiven his next two runs at Cheltenham and Aintree. The fitting of blinkers for the first time should sharpen the six-year-old up and despite being high enough in the weights, it is hard to see him not being in the frame tomorrow afternoon.

Advice

AS DE MEE – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor)

5.55 Sandown – The bet365 Handicap Hurdle Race.

This could well turn out to be the decider in the race for the Trainers’ title and both Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls come here mob-handed.

Nicholls has four chances in the finale headed by Red Hanrahan. The Yeats gelding was a £150,000 purchase on the back of his win in an Irish point last March but only really started to show signs of repaying that hefty sum at Fontwell last week. He was travelling well until tipping up at Wetherby in October and that seemed to affect him as he threw in a couple of below-par efforts at Ascot and Chepstow on his next two starts. He won impressively just eight days ago and an opening mark of 130 looks fairly reasonable but the way he veered when well in control after the last that day certainly tempers enthusiasm in a contest such as this. Nevertheless, he is the pick of stable jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, so must be respected.

Stablemate Alcala has an altogether more convincing profile in recent times, landing a novice event at Fontwell in February before running a blinder to finish third in the Grade 3 EBF Final at Sandown on Imperial Cup day. He carried that form to Ayr last Saturday when runner-up to Impulsive American, who has gone in again since, and on the face of it looks fairly treated off just 1lb higher. However, he doesn’t have Harry Cobden taking off a handy 5lb this time round so may have to settle for only the minor honours once again.

Cobden’s allowance will instead be put to good use on Qualando who has started to show the sort of form that saw him land the Fred Winter at the last Cheltenham Festival. He finished a good second at Taunton in February, his first solid piece of form since the Festival, and again filled the runner-up spot back there last time out. The first time blinkers seemed to keep his mind in the right place that day so he can remain competitive with the headgear applied once again.

Chartbreaker completes the quartet and sneaks in at the very foot of the weights. He was far from disgraced on his handicap debut at Kempton earlier this week and it is rather interesting to see him turned out again so quickly in a stronger contest. He stayed on into third on Tuesday but the race had developed before he mounted his challenge so it is of little surprise to see first-time blinkers reached for. A 1m6f winner on the Flat in France, he probably requires a stiffer test than this in truth but has the right man on board in Tom Cannon to come rattling home with a strong run at the finish.

Willie Mullins has three chances to boost his pot with BELLOW MOME looking like his best chance for success. The five-year-old arrives here in search of a hat-trick following wins in a Punchestown maiden hurdle and a Limerick novice so is bang in form. The bare form of those wins doesn’t look particularly impressive but considering how heavy the ground was, which definitely didn’t suit him, he showed a great attitude on both occasions to still stick his head out in front. The drying ground here should be right up his alley and a big run is expected.

Mullins’ other pair are owned by Champion Owners Gigginstown House Stud and remain of interest but there are more question marks about these two. Burgas is the pick of Bryan Cooper but he looks to be up against running off a 3lb higher mark than when pulled up at Fairyhouse last month. The drop in trip will likely be in his favour but I suspect more will be needed on these terms. McKinley is fairly well treated on his best form considering he was a Grade 1 winning novice last season. He has been campaigned over fences this year so far with mixed success and his jumping has left a lot to be desired. It is little surprise to see him return to the smaller obstacles but again looks up against it unless a stark return to form comes about.

Of the remainder, Royal Vacation turns up in the best form following wins at Taunton and Plumpton. He has always been well thought of by connections and was even thrown in the deep end in the Champion Bumper two years ago having finished fourth on his only start in an Ascot bumper. He ran into a couple as a novice last year but that may have helped his development and he duly broke his duck at the first time of asking this campaign. The six-year-old has his best days ahead of him and although he looks to be a chaser in the making, could well make his mark here.

Kilcrea Vale is an interesting case and doesn’t particularly look well treated on what he has achieved so far. An opening mark of 147 looked pretty steep but he didn’t disgrace himself in a Grade 3 handicap at Ascot in January, finishing sixth having been asked for an effort far too late. He will have no easy task off top weight here for a horse so inexperienced but if lives up to the hype, he could prove to be a cut above the rest of the field.

Advice

BELLOW MOME – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365, BetVictor)

[Saturday Racing - (Inc. Scottish National)]

1.50 Ayr – The Weatherbys Private Bank Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase.

What looked likely to be a cracking contest has disappointed somewhat with the entries cutting up but that could play straight into the hands of VIVALDI COLLONGES. The seven-year-old has taken a while to get his act together but showed at Warwick last time that he may just be starting to get the hang of things. His first season chasing was a bit of a right off, running in a couple small field novice events before being pitched in at the deep end in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. His second season has proven a different proposition altogether, landing a valuable Kelso handicap on his seasonal debut before blowing away his two rivals at Warwick last time out. He can be forgiven for his well beaten fifth in an attritional heavy ground Classic Chase in between and arrives here on only a 1lb higher mark than that day. Carrying top weight won’t be an easy task by any means but he could prove to be a class apart from the rest of the field here.

Subtle Grey has been in good heart this year and can be forgiven his latest effort in the Midlands National. He rarely runs a bad race and had finished in the frame on every start under rules until heading to Uttoxeter last month. However, he has shown a propensity to lose interest on the run-in and although holding on well at Carlisle back in February, the way he idled was a bit of a worry. Most of his best form has been in a real slog so any extra rain would certainly suit him and he looks likely to run into a place.

Advice

VIVALDI COLLONGES – 1pt win @ 7/2 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral)

 
2.25 Ayr – Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 

Even though the market has found him (6/4 favourite), BRISTOL DE MAI is clearly the horse with the most ability in this field – ground conditions and trip look to be absolutely spot on for him and if he can get back to his bold-jumping best from the front, he’ll certainly be a tough nut to crack. His second to Black Hercules in the JLT was an excellent effort considering he had to battle back from a mistake at the third last and being just fourth at the final fence – he had plenty of very useful types in behind that day too.

Harry Fry’s eight-year-old, Henryville is his nearest rival in the market and his defeat of Golden Doyen at Exeter in a novices’ chase looks decent form with Thomas Crapper back in third. He hasn’t been tested at anywhere near this level yet though and it may be that the ground is too soft for him to show his best, so while he’s clearly a promising chaser, there could be other days for him.

Le Mercurey sports first-time blinkers here for Paul Nicholls and if they can sharpen him up, especially in the six-year-old’s resolution department, he could be a sleeper in the race. This is a horse that travels well through his races up to a point and then seems to drop out tamely quite often, so you would think the drop to two and a half miles on softish ground would be good for him. However, the yard seem to think he’s a three miler if he can get his application right, so this could be too sharp a test.

Dan Skelton’s yard has hit some good form recently and he’s represented by Pain Au Chocolat in this. The five-year-old’s defeat of Aso reads pretty well, but on a line through Golden Doyen, who he was 15 lengths behind on chasing debut, he’s got plenty to find with Henryville, let alone Bristol De Mai.
Otago Trail is a bit of an enigma for Venetia Williams, one day looking very good and the next dropping out tamely, as in the Mildmay at Aintree, while Killala Quay is tough and consistent, but has plenty to find with a few at this level.

Advice

BRISTOL DE MAI – 3pts win @ 11/10 (General)

3.00 Ayr – The QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap)

Undoubtedly, the Willie Mullins pair will prove to be all the rage as they both arrive here in good form. Ivan Grozny carries a 5lb penalty for his win at Aintree last week and is officially 5lb well in after being reassessed by the handicappers. However, although he clearly looks to be back on track, it will be a tough ask to follow up just seven days later and he has pretty much been on the go since the middle of January having had nearly two years off the track. This will be his fifth race in under three months and it may be the case that he had his time last week.

Clondaw Warrior looked to be right back to his best when an easy winner at Fairyhouse at the end of March and although 12lb higher now, must come into serious consideration. He enjoyed his best season on the level last year, landing the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and Guinness Handicap at the Galway Festival and finishing a narrow second in the Doncaster Cup and is a major player here off a career-high mark.

However, a speculative chance is taken on CONNETABLE bouncing back to form. It is no easy task for a four-year-old to come here and take on the older horses but the 5lb age concession he receives will certainly come in handy and he has proven that he can mix it with his elders when landing the Listed Contenders Hurdle at Sandown back in February.  His below-par effort in the Triumph was slightly troubling but he wouldn’t be the first horse not to act on Cheltenham’s undulations and he certainly won’t be the last. The return to a flatter track will surely help and I think he is overpriced for what looks to be a fairly sub-standard renewal.

Advice

CONNETABLE – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (bet365)

 
3.35 Ayr – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race)

This next race looks a tight one with just seven runners and one horse who must have a place on the shortlist is Solar Impulse who seemed to benefit from the fitting of blinkers for the first time when winning the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. Whether the aids will work for a second time in quick succession it is hard to know but the six-year-old has always been highly thought of by the yard and it would be no surprise to see him run well again off a 9lb higher mark. His form suggests he would probably prefer the ground a little quicker than it is likely to be on Saturday but he should still be thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.

He does carry a lot of weight however and it may be worth looking towards the foot of the weights for an improving performer. One such horse could be Tom George’s ALWAYS ON THE RUN who was only fourth on his chasing debut in December, but has since won twice dropped back to two miles. The latest of those efforts saw him make all in the hands of Paddy Brennan and despite the odd jumping error, he won with a bit up his sleeve at the line. He is clearly on the improve and a 4lb rise shouldn’t be enough to halt his progression. He has won on ground ranging from good to soft so that shouldn’t hold any fears for him and in his current form, he looks the one to beat.

His biggest danger could come from Ultragold who has won his last two starts over two miles, most recently winning going away from his rivals at Newbury. He also acquitted himself well Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury in February over 2m4f and looks far from badly handicapped at present. The Tizzard yard are in great form of late and he can’t be safely ruled out in the hands of promising conditional Harry Cobden.

Advice

ALWAYS ON THE RUN – 1pt win @ 11/4 (Sky Bet)

4.10 Ayr – Coral Scottish Grand National (HANDICAP RACE) 

A well-trodden path for horses who exit the Aintree Grand National early on is to head here for some compensation a week later.  In terms of trends, it looks something of a difficult task when you consider that the last horse to complete the double in the same year was Red Rum in 1974. More recently, horses who have run at Aintree and then lined up here have a poor record with no winner of the race in the last decade. However, we don’t have to worry about that here as this year, for the first time in a few years none of the early departees come here bidding for redemption.

One of the stronger trends associated with this race is that nine of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers to date. The extreme distance that the race is run over often tests the concentration levels of horses and therefore a good jumper can often get themselves out of trouble when required. There are seven members of this year’s field whose previous record may cause some concern with Top Wood, Goodtoknow, Golden Chieftain, Pineau De Re, Milborough, Tour Des Champs and Sun Cloud all needing to put in their best rounds to have any chance here.

An equally strong trend is that a first three finish on their most recent start is something that seven of the last ten winners have all had in common. This suggests that horses in form do tend to run well here despite the fact that they may carry a little more weight in this handicap. Just less than half of this year’s field qualify on this score including the likes of Cause of Causes, Masters Hill, Highland Lodge and Berea Boru.

It may seem obvious given the distance of four miles and half a furlong, that horses with proven stamina are often successful. In fact eight of the last ten winners all had a victory over 3m 2f or further to their name prior to running in this race. There are eleven horses in this year’s renewal who fall at this particular hurdle with the likes of Seeyouatmidnight, Vyta Du Roc and Top Wood all arriving with question marks over their stamina and if any race is likely to exploit any such weakness, the Scottish Grand National is that race.

In terms of weight, history tells us that this is not a race in which big weights are carried to victory. Godsmejudge carried 11st 3lb to victory in 2013 but the other nine winners in the last decade, all carried less than 11st. This would suggest that it is best to focus our attention on the horses with lower weights and if we apply that to this year’s field, we can eliminate the top ten as they appear on the racecard, from Cause of Causes down to Top Wood.

A major negative for potential contenders is if a horse is aged seven or younger, as before Godsmejudge landed the race three years ago, you have to go back to Gingembre in 2001 to find the last seven-year-old winner. In the last decade, eight, nine and eleven-year-olds have accounted for eight of the last ten winners so older horses should definitely be followed. There are five seven-year-olds in this year’s field, with Vicente, Vyta Du Roc, Gold Futures, A Good Skin and Straidnahanna hoping to emulate Alan King’s last winner of the race.

A final factor worthy of consideration is the poor record that favourites have in the Scottish Grand National. There have been no winning-favourites in the last decade and only two of the most recent winners went off at single figure SPs. Obviously the market is subject to fluctuations between now and the off but this looks to be a race in which a chance can be taken on a lively outsider so supporters of the joint-favourites Cause Of Causes and Measureofmydreams may be better off looking elsewhere.

 
Shortlist

HIGHLAND LODGE – 7/7

Heathfield – 7/7

Midnight Prayer – 6/7

Alvarado – 6/7

 
Conclusion

We have two horses who on the trends at least appear to have perfect records with slight preference for HIGHLAND LODGE who was last seen winning the Becher Chase at Aintree in December. Connections were disappointed that he didn’t get into the Aintree Grand National this week but must be hopeful that he can run another big race off a 5lb higher mark. He is fairly lightly-raced for a ten-year-old and having run well over four miles in the past, I don’t think the trip will be an issue. He likes to be ridden prominently so we are likely to get a bold sight out in front and it will just be a case of whether anything can get past him.

Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Tony Martin’s Heathfield who has mixed hurdles and fences since winning a valuable Punchestown handicap over 3m6f last Spring. He failed to show much form in his first few starts this season but bounced back to win impressively over hurdles a couple of weeks ago. The nine-year-old seems to come into form at this time of year and given the stable from which he resides, it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up on Saturday afternoon.
There are a host of contenders who miss just the one trend but one who catches the eye is Alan King’s Midnight Prayer who won the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival a couple of years ago. He was a close second at Warwick in January before finishing alone at Exeter next time and probably just found the ground too lively at Cheltenham on his latest outing. Having finished seventh, that is the only trend he has to overcome but he otherwise looks to boast a strong profile.

The final member of the shortlist is Alavarado who has finished fourth in two Aintree Grand Nationals and didn’t make the cut for this year’s renewal. He has won over 3m4f at Cheltenham in the past so is no stranger to this sort of stamina test and he gets in here with very little weight on his back. He could only finish eighth on his latest outing but his form suggests that he tends to improve for his first run of the campaign so I am happy to forgive him that effort. He is likely to be staying on when some of the others have cried enough and he could be another lively outsider.

Advice

HIGHLAND LODGE – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

4.45 Ayr – Ayrshire Hospice Land O’ Burns Starlight Walk Handicap Hurdle.

This looks an extremely competitive handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs, so ideally we’re looking for something with plenty of stamina and plenty of juice in their mark.

One such horse that seems to fit the criteria well is Warren Greatrex’s Missed Approach. Despite having the excuse of going up 20lbs for his dominant win at Newbury, he was very disappointing at Cheltenham in the Pertemps Final and it was surely too bad to be true as he was struggling before the seventh hurdle. He was very well backed before the race and there’s surely better in the tank from this horse. It could well be his last hurrah over timber as he’s due to go chasing next year, so there’s nothing to lose by going all out here.

Willie Mullins attempts to top up his lead in the British trainers championship by sending over ARBRE DE VIE, a five-length tenth in the Coral Cup at the Festival. That doesn’t tell the whole story though as he was held up way in rear of the contest, before running on strongly at the end. If he’s given a bit more positive ride here by Paul Townend, he could run a big race off the same mark and even though he is carrying top weight 11st 12lb, this race has been won by horses carrying more than 11st 5lb seven times in the last ten years.

Two Taffs has been consistently promising this season for Dan Skelton, finishing placed in four consecutive competitive hurdle races, most lately the EBF Final at Sandown Park, where he was a five length fourth. The way he stayed on at the end there, he looked like he’ll appreciate this extra furlong and the ground should hold no fears. A mark of 129 could well be generous and it’s easy to see why he’s favourite with many bookmakers. However, his lack of wins is a concern and a pattern is emerging from his races: “stayed on well but held.” It could be that he’s one that needs everything to fall just right for him and at his current price; I’d want to take him on.

Brian Ellison has two in the race and judging by jockey bookings, Eshtiaal is the big hope with Barry Geraghty booked for the ride. The six-year-old has flipped between flat racing and going over hurdles with success, but the big worry here is the ground – he’s undoubtedly a good ground horse, so it could be best to focus on his other runner.

Forest Bihan is that horse and the five-year-old has some decent placed form in competitive events. Last time out, his third place in the Greatwood at Newbury was a good effort and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb, the first time he’s relented since he first ran in Britain, coincidentally also at Ayr. Brian Ellison really likes the horse and he could be worth some each-way interest.

Advice

ARBRE DE VIE – 2pts win @ 9/2 (Bet365)

 
5.20 Ayr – Ortus Homes Racing Excellence “Hands And Heels” Finale Handicap Hurdle.

The ‘hands and heels’ race looks another competitive affair despite the small field and Alcala must appear high on any shortlist having finished a good third in the EBF Final at Sandown last month. He has been highly-tried in his career to date but ran well in that particular contest and doesn’t look to be too unfairly treated on his current mark of 127. Harry Cobden, who rode him at Sandown stays aboard for this engagement and with Paul Nicholls chasing the Trainer’s title, he will be keen to have any winner possible.

James Moffatt’s Amuse Me has been in the form of his life this term winning three times, but hasn’t been seen since winning for the third time in quick succession at Sedgefield at the end of October. He was hit with an 11lb penalty for that latest success but has gone well fresh in the past and can’t be ruled out if returning in the same form as he was when we last saw him.

However, the one to focus on could be Dan Skelton’s OLDGRANGEWOOD who may have made hard work of his success here in February but should appreciate stepping up in trip to 2m4f. The five-year-old won an Irish point this time last year and ran in some competitive races on his first two starts for the yard. Point-to-point rider Jack Andrews gets the leg up on him here and I fancy him to extend his winning sequence upped in trip.

Advice

OLDGRANGEWOOD – 1pt win @ 100/30 (Paddy Power)

5.50 Ayr – Skyform Group Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.

This is a fairly ordinary-looking bumper on the face of it, but then you scan down the roll of honour and see the name Sprinter Sacre there in 2010 – he even went off at 11/4 – so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that there will be a useful one in here.

A key piece of form here could well be the race that Brian Ellison’s Ballycrystal won at Doncaster in February, where he beat Man O’Words by three lengths off level-weights. Ellison’s horse now carries a 6lb penalty for that win and it’s reasonable to think that Tom Lacey’s charge can reverse the form simply with that, but when you consider it was also Man O’Words’ first visit to the racetrack, the probable improvement could seal the deal. Both of those horses look stayers in the making and will appreciate the better-run contest that they should get here.

There are two other winners in the field, starting with Nicky Richards’ Reivers Lad who won in soft ground at Carlisle in March. The form of that race doesn’t look that strong though, so he could be one to pass over. MERE IRONMONGER is the other winner and Brendan Powell’s four year-old looks a very interesting prospect. He’s by Galileo for a start, a half-brother to Bayan who became a smart hurdler and cost 280,000 guineas as a yearling, so there’s clearly plenty there in his pedigree at the very least. He was given a cracking ride by Harry Skelton on his debut at Kempton to steal the race from the front from a decent-looking field including representatives from the Henderson, King, Nicholls, Fry and Tizzard yards. He gets the four-year-old’s allowance here, so the penalty for his win isn’t such a burden compared to five-year-olds Ballycrystal and Reivers Lad and if he’s improved since that run at Kempton, he has to hold great claims here.

Paul Nicholls has an interesting debutant in the field in the form of Gibbes Bay, who is a son of Al Namix, sire of Saphir Du Rheu and Grandouet amongst others. He gets weight from nearly all his rivals here and if he’s tuned up to go first-time-out, he could be a threat coming from his top yard.

Advice

MERE IRONMONGER – 1pt win @ 3/1(SkyBet)

[Saturdays Racing (Aintree, Lingfield etc..)]

1.45 Aintree – Gaskells Waste Management Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

This race often attracts runners who tackled the Coral Cup and Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival, as connections bid to right the wrongs off their March exertions. It is therefore no surprise that these races can often be a strong guide and this year’s race sees a number of horses take part who ran in those races at Cheltenham. There are nine runners who ran in either race, with plenty of interest likely in Arpege D’Alene and If In Doubt who finished second and third respectively in the Pertemps. From the other race, Long House Hall (2nd) and Ubak (3rd) will be bidding to put in another bold display.

Looking through the form book, we can see that eleven of the last twelve winners of this race had won a race earlier in the campaign, which means that we don’t want to be taking chances on horses ending a long losing sequence. Just over half of this year’s field have found their way into the Winner’s Enclosure this term but some of those yet to taste success this season include At Fishers Cross, Ruacana, Kings Palace and Join The Clan.

Another interesting stat which is worth bearing in mind is that ten recent winners had run over fences during the season, possibly ending up here following aborted novice chase campaigns. Whatever the reason, this group is clearly worth keeping an eye on and there are ten such performers in this year’s field. The list includes Silsol, If In Doubt, Arpege D’Alene, Ubak, Long House Hall, Kings Palace, Join The Clan, Mydor, Rolling Maul and Murryana.

One final thing to bear in mind is the poor record of five-year-olds in the race, having only won two renewals in the last 28 years. A stat that doesn’t bode well for the trio of five-year-olds in this year’s field, Squouateur, Pinnacle Panda and Ballycross.

I have already mentioned what a strong guide the Cheltenham races are and with that in mind, it is hard to see If In Doubt being out of the shake-up. He encountered all sorts of problems in running and was carried across the track by drifting rivals in the closing stages. That run suggested he was right at the top of his game and having only been raised 4lb for that effort, he must have a good chance of going well again.  He looks the pick of the McManus runners and Barry Geraghty has gone for him accordingly. He looks tailor-made for this race having struggled to compete at the top level over fences and although he looks likely to be favourite, he looks a major player.

The horse that finished just in front of him at Cheltenham, Arpege D’Alene also finds his way onto the shortlist and is still fairly lightly-raced having run just the five times over hurdles. He too is back over hurdles having not taken to the larger obstacles and connections have reached for the cheekpieces in a bid to eke out further improvement from the six-year-old. The Nicholls team are keen to have some winners this week and like his rival, a repeat of his Cheltenham run would see him go very close.

Our final member of the shortlist is Dan Skelton’s Long House Hall who was staying on strongly up the Cheltenham hill over 2m5f in the Coral Cup and as a result looks set to relish the step up to 3m for the first time. He won his first start over fences last May but unseated early on at Cheltenham in October and this was his first run back since then. He only went up 3lb for his most recent effort so there should be more to come, and as long as he gets the trip, he could well find himself hitting the frame once again.

In truth, the race is wide open and if we had a larger shortlist we could probably include about ten horses! Some of the ones unfortunate to miss out on the list include Gary Moore’s Ubak, who was third in the Coral Cup although the step up to 3m is not entirely sure to suit. Gordon Elliott is often a man to watch in these races and Eshtiaal who was most progressive last Spring has snuck in at the bottom of the weights here. I should also mention Urban Hymn who represents the Malcolm Jefferson team, who landed this race with Cape Tribulation in 2012. He returns from a lengthy absence here but was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles as a novice and as long as he is fit and ready to go, he could be one to watch at a bigger price.

Shortlist

If In Doubt

Arpege D’Alene

Long House Hall

 
2.25 Aintree – Ez Trader Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1)

As has been the case for most of the Grade 1 novice hurdles this week, the market is often a strong guide as to the outcome and this race is no different, with fourteen of the last eighteen winners having started first or second favourite. The Neptune winner Yorkhill dominates the betting at around the 2/7 mark with his nearest rival being Paul Nicholls’ Le Prezien, who won at Kelso on his most recent outing.

Interestingly, fourteen of the last nineteen winners of this race finished no worse than seventh at the Cheltenham Festival but that only applies to three of the runners in this year’s field. As we know Yorkhill was imperious in winning the Neptune for Willie Mullins, whilst his stablemate Bello Conti chased him home in fourth. The only horse to run with credit at the meeting was Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Flying Angel, who having won the Imperial Cup at Sandown, finished a good second behind Ibis Du Rheu in the Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle on the final day of the meeting.

In terms of age, the five-year-olds look to have the marginal advantage having accounted for six of the last ten winners. This year they are represented by Bello Conti, Flying Angel and Le Prezien although the six-year-olds hold a strong hand so it might be worth taking this trend with a pinch of salt.

With all things considered, it is very hard to get away from the chances of Yorkhill who beat a well-fancied rival in Yanworth when winning the Neptune. He has shown himself to be versatile over 2m and 2m4f and is arguably the most exciting novice hurdler in the Mullins yard at present. His odds mean that it isn’t really having a bet on him but his form looks rock solid and he appears to have very few kinks in his armour. He is pretty versatile ground wise so any rain would not harm his chances and he certainly looks the one to beat.

Nigel Twiston-Davies ran Splash Of Ginge in this race two years ago, finishing second to Lac Fontana and he runs another smart handicapper this year in Flying Angel. He finished third in the Betfair Hurdle, first in the Imperial Cup and a close second in the boys race at the Cheltenham Festival. He is in the form of his life at present and has form here but will probably be found wanting at this sort of level.

Instead, the second place on the shortlist goes to Paul Nicholls’ Le Prezien who despite missing Cheltenham, matches quite a few of the rest of our trends. The Nicholls yard have won this race three times in the last decade and there was plenty to like about this horse’s Grade 2 victory at Kelso last month. He has only been beaten twice since coming to these shores and as long as the step up to 2m4f suits, he looks the most likely to follow home the favourite.

Shortlist

Yorkhill

Le Prezien

3.00 Aintree – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1)

First thing’s first, I won’t insult your intelligence by going through the trends and eventually coming to the conclusion that Douvan has a chance. It’s pretty much as simple as: “if he jumps the fences, he wins.” His Arkle victory was imperious and he’s never once looked in trouble, so if any of these here can serve it up to him, I’d be very surprised. The fact that Sizing John avoided Douvan to run on Thursday of the Grand National meeting tells you a lot in itself.

But even given his apparent invincibility, he certainly faces a challenge on the trends given that there have only been two Irish-trained winners since 1989. Both Alisier D’Irlande and The Game Changer fall foul of this, but between them they make up the top three in the market, where the winner has come from in every renewal but one since 1996, so it’s a case of major swings and roundabouts here.

17 of the last 21 winners of the race also competed in the Arkle Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival, so that’s a mark-up for Douvan, third-placed Fox Norton and The Game Changer, who finished fourth in the race. Also a strong trend for the race is that 16 of the last 17 winners in this traditionally small-ish field raced prominently from the outset, so with Alisier D’Irlande, Douvan and Fox Norton all preferring to bowl along close to the pace, it could boil down to these three.

Interestingly, 10 of the last 15 winners were bred on the continent and the classic argument that French horses seem to mature quicker than their British cousins looks to be backed up by the evidence in this. Again it’s the ‘top three’ that emerge on the trends that fit this bill; Douvan, Fox Norton and Alisier D’Irlande.

Obviously it’s Douvan who comes out on top of the trends table and is the clear selection using whatever criteria you’d choose to use, but if you’re looking for something in the ‘without Douvan’ market, or one to take advantage if the unthinkable happens and the magnificent Mullins chaser doesn’t make it around, it’s Fox Norton who could be the one. He’s currently around 20/1 in the usual market and stayed on well in the Arkle to take third. Trained by Neil Mulholland and ridden by Noel Fehily, he’s got a top team behind him and he does look an improving sort worthy of a place on the shortlist.

Shortlist

Douvan

Fox Norton

 
3.40 Aintree – Liverpool Stayers´ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Much like the Melling Chase on Friday, we had hoped that the trends would throw us a lively outside to topple the favourite Thistlecrack but if anything they have only further strengthened his claims at the head of the market. I don’t think many people would argue about him being touted as the best staying hurdler in training and he showed just how good he was when running away with the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Most of the horses who finished behind him that day have swerved this engagement and it looks a formality for him to continue his winning sequence.

For what it is worth, nine of the last ten winners had finished first or second at this meeting before, something the market leader achieved when winning the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle twelve months ago. Eight of the last ten winners had finished in the first four in the World Hurdle and the Cleeve, Long Walk and Long Distance (of which Thistlecrack has won all three) often serve as good guides for this race. I think you will agree that barring accidents, it is very difficult to oppose Colin Tizzard’s eight-year-old.

In terms of a danger, the only other Grade 1 winner over hurdles in the field is Gordon Elliott’s Prince Of Scars who landed the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has won his last three starts and is clearly improving but wouldn’t want the ground too quick at Aintree on Saturday.

If there is a Grade 1 winner in waiting in the field it could be Different Gravey who blitzed his rivals when winning a handicap by sixteen lengths at Ascot in February. That was his first run since last April and the way in which he did it suggests that there is more to come from the six-year-old. However he us yet to run over further than 2m4f under rules and this longer trip could well find him out.

The final one to mention is Willie Mullins’ Shaneshill who finished behind Thistlecrack at Punchestown at the end of last season but turned in his best effort over fences when second in the RSA last time. He could be a better horse than when we last saw him over the smaller obstacles and may outrun his odds of around 14/1.

Shortlist

Thistlecrack

Prince Of Scars

4.20 Aintree – Betfred Handicap Chase (Listed Race)

Always a conundrum, this three-mile Listed contest has attracted 15 interesting runners this time around and it’s a mix of improvers and experienced stayers that will take to the fences on Saturday afternoon.

Despite winners being at double-figure prices three times in the past five years, there are a few trends that can certainly help us narrow the field down, including all of the last five winners being rated in the select bracket of between 134 and 138. Just five fall into this area; Warden Hill, Roc d’Apsis, Cernunnos, Mystifiable and No Secrets, but the presence of Virak in this year’s race off a mark of 157 significantly skews the weights, so this range could well end up being a little low this year, bringing horses like Thomas Brown and Racing Pulse into the picture, who are rated 139.

Speaking of the weights, only one horse in the last 12 years has won when carrying more than 11st, so clearly Virak is up against it off top weight and also giving every other horse 11lb at least. Cloudy Too is the only other horse to have to shoulder more than 11st, so even though the trend doesn’t rule out too many, it certainly shows us the gap in ratings between the top and the bottom.

As with many of the winners on Grand National week, 11 of the 19 winners of this race ran at the Cheltenham Festival, but this presents us with a problem – none of the horses who match the two previous trends meet this one as well. However, there is a get-out clause in that 19 of the last 23 ran in either March or April, proving a saving grace for Cernunnos and Mystifable.

Only two of the last 17 winners were aged over ten years old, so that’s a black mark next to No Secrets, Cloudy Too, Maggio and Al Co, while there has amazingly never been an Irish-trained winner in any of the 39 runnings of the race, again giving No Secrets and Maggio the task of turning around history.

Interestingly for a three mile handicap chase on Grand National day, two of the last four winners of the race have been novices, a boost for Racing Pulse, Thomas Brown and Coologue in this year’s renewal and interestingly, all these three feature near the top of the trends table.

Speaking of which, we come to our shortlist – there are two that sit atop the trends and Rebecca Curtis’ Racing Pulse and Harry Fry’s Thomas Brown are the two that hit five out of six targets. The former seems to be one of those horses that is either on or off on any given day and is a risky proposition, but if the seven-year-old comes into the race in the right mood, he can certainly mix it at this level. A decent midfield effort in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase was his last run and the step back up to three miles here should help.

However, three places in front of him on that day and running off top-weight was Harry Fry’s Thomas Brown who just couldn’t reel in the leading pack on the quicker ground. This slightly softer ground and step back up in trip to three miles should sit him well and this is a horse that’s always been highly regarded by his good stable. The probable rain overnight will help this horse and if he can be kept interested by the excellent Noel Fehily, he could have a superb chance here.

Completing our shortlist for this one is the more experienced Knock House, who was a good fourth in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and is partnered by the excellent Nina Carberry once again. He gets to run off 1lb lower than at the Festival and has to go well in a field than looks weaker than in that race.

Shortlist

Thomas Brown

Knock House

Racing Pulse

5.15 Aintree – Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Grade 3) (HANDICAP RACE)

Despite Many Clouds’ famous win last season, nine of the last ten winners of the Grand National have been aged between nine and 11, so this is certainly not a race in which younger horses have done well yet not a race for those past their prime either. The last time, previously to Many Clouds, that there was a winner younger than nine was 14 years ago when Bindaree landed the spoils for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team and before him you have to go back to another eight-year-old, Party Politics who won in 1992. Seven horses aged eight take part in the race this season, including Wonderful Charm, Gilgamboa, Unioniste, Ucello Conti and The Last Samuri, so while that age group hasn’t had a great record in the race, there’s certainly plenty of class in their ranks this year. Onenightinvienna and Vieux Lion Rouge will both be bidding to become the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bogskar triumphed in 1940.  Although Many Clouds managed to break the trend last year and the class of the eight-year-olds in the race does seem to rise every year, it’s probably safest to steer towards the nine to eleven-year-old age group when making your selection.

An equally strong trend is that a win over a distance of three miles or further is something that all of the last ten winners had on their CV. In fact this trend can be stretched back to 1970 and it is hardly surprising given the extreme stamina test the race provides. There are nine members of this year’s field who still have these major doubts surrounding their stamina including Ballycasey, Ballynagour, Gilgamboa and Buywise – given how far this run goes back, it seems wise to rule these horses out at this stage, especially with some cut in the ground forecast, making really getting the trip all the more important.

Given the perceived effort that horses have to give in the Grand National, it might be sensible to support a horse returning from a long lay-off. However, the statistics suggest that a run within the last 50 days is the optimum, accounting for nine of the last ten winners. The only exception during this period was the 2012 winner Neptune Collonges who managed to win following an absence of 56 days. Whilst you might still be thinking this makes little difference, consider that the last winner to defy the trend before Neptune Collonges was Aldaniti in 1981. This year there are eight of the field who will attempt to buck the trend including the likes of First Lieutenant, Soll, Sir Des Champs and Black Thunder. It seems that match practice goes a long way in the Grand National and it would therefore seem sensible to stick with those who have run in the last fifty days, putting them in peak shape for this unique test.

The Irish angle is one to take good notice of, especially considering 13 of the last 17 horses to win the race were bred in the country and Irish-trained horses have been successful in seven of the last 17 renewals. Although the Irish trainers haven’t had a successful contender since Gordon Elliot’s Silver Birch won in 2007, it does seem high time that one came along, so when you look at the very strong entry including the well-fancied contenders Goonyella, Morning Assembly, Boston Bob, Gallant Oscar and Ucello Conti, they could be the ones to regain the crown for Ireland.

Twelve of the last 19 winners of the Grand National has finished at least placed in another ‘national’ of some shape or form either in Ireland or in Britain, something Goonyella, Shutthefrontdoor, Vics Canvas and Rule The World all gain a boost from. Of course Many Clouds and Saint Are, last year’s 1-2 in this race also meet this criterion, but only one of the last 73 horses to have won or placed in this great race had managed to win it the following year, so those mark ups should possibly be taken with a pinch of salt.

One final factor worthy of mention is the betting market. One of the great attractions of the Grand National is that it is perceived to be something of a lottery where big-priced winners can often prevail. In the last ten years, we’ve seen 33/1, 100/1, 33/1, 66/1, 25/1 and 25/1 winners, with no winner under 14/1 in the past five renewals. The rising quality of the race has seemed to make it even more unpredictable than ever before, with even more horses possessing the required ability to win the race actually taking part. In fact, there are very few also-rans in this year’s renewal and it’s very difficult to totally rule out many at all, so don’t home in on the first few in the market and forget the rest, the winner of the Grand National can come from anywhere.

Shortlist

Goonyella – 9/10

Shutthefrontdoor – 9/10

Many Clouds – 7/10

Holywell – 7/10 

Conclusion

Oddly for a 40-runner race, only one horse stands a point clear of the rest at the head of the trends table. JJ Burke’s mount GOONYELLA has the experience of running in the Scottish, Midlands and Irish Grand Nationals, finishing second, first and seventh in those respectively. He’s always looked the perfect type for the Aintree Grand national and if trainer Jim Dreaper has him in top form, the ground, trip and big field will hold no fears for him. He carries a nice racing weight at 10-8 and, at his 20/1 price, looks a decent bet for this year’s big race, just as long as he takes a little better to these national fences – he’s unseated and finished ninth in the last two Becher Chases.

After finishing fifth in last year’s Grand National under Sir A P McCoy, Shutthefrontdoor comes into this year’s renewal a year older and with plenty less expectation to carry on his shoulders. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has a great record in the race and owner JP McManus’ colours are often carried well in Grand Nationals. O’Neill seems to think that the extra year of maturity will help this horse stay the trip better and he’ll have to after weakening at the elbow in 2015’s renewal – he travelled very well through that race, possibly too well and if he can get into a good rhythm and save a little more energy, he could be right there at the business end again. The trends have him as a clear second pick and also at 20/1, he’s certainly a very fair each-way bet.

Last year’s winner Many Clouds has history against him, with only one of the last 73 winners or placed horses going on to win again, but with a perfect preparation and a clear love of the track and trip, he’s absolutely impossible to rule out. Yes he carries a little more than last year and may of his rivals have pulls at the weights, but he’s still only nine and could well have improved. His price may have gone at 8/1, but he looks sure to run well again.

Amongst the group of seven horses who tick seven of the ten trends boxes is another Jonjo O’Neill trained horse, Holywell, who is infamous for only showing his best form in the spring time. He ran very well behind Un Temps Pour Tout at Cheltenham, who went off favourite for the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase here on Friday ahead of RSA winner Blaklion, and if he can carry that form on here to a venue he’s usually gone well at and stay the trip, he’ll hold superb claims as he’s officially 4lb well-in. 16/1 certainly looks fair for a horse of this high ability.

 
6.10 Aintree – Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle

The final race of the meeting is this handicap hurdle for conditional and amateur jockeys and the first thing to note is that four of the last seven winners finished no worse than fourth on their most recent outing. This suggests that we should be focusing on horses arriving here in form rather than praying for one to bounce back to their best form following a string of poor efforts. Just over half of this year’s field sit on the right side of this trend but some of the ones to miss out include Ivan Grozny, Nabucco, Dell’ Arca, War Singer and My Manekineko.

It is also a race that has tended to favour horses with a recent run under their belt, no doubt due to the fact that you have to in the peak of health to win a race as competitive as this one. Six of the last seven winners had had a run since the beginning of March, which is bad news for Dell’ Arca, Madfuninthewest, Chieftain’s Choice, War Singer, My Manekineko and Sir Chauvelin who all arrive here on the back of breaks.

If official ratings are anything to go by, it might be worth bearing in mind that all but one of the seven winners were rated in the 130s. If we apply that to this year’s field then that eliminates the top weight Ivan Grozny (141) and at the foot of the weights, everything from Automated (128) down to Sir Chauvelin, who is rated 127.
The final factor to bear in mind is that the Irish have a pretty poor record having had just one winner from twenty runners in previous renewals. That would be a concern for supporters of the well-fancied Automated and his stablemate Tempo Mac as well as Mr Boss Man, Sir Ector, Ivan Grozny and My Manekineko.

With all that in mind, one horse who comes firmly into the reckoning is Boite who returned from a lengthy absence to finish second at Newbury last month. He was just found wanting for race fitness in the end and with that run under his belt, he looks likely to put up a bold show here. He has yet to finish outside of the first two in four starts over hurdles and he has useful conditional Harry Bannister doing the steering. He fits a lot of the patterns that we have just discussed and looks a likely player for the frame at around the 10/1 mark.

Another worth keeping an eye on could be Philip Hobbs’ Allee Bleue who having finished fifth in the Imperial Cup last month, returned to novice company to register a wide margin success a couple of weeks later. His mark has been left unchanged following that success and he looks another who can make an impact returning to handicap company. He is one of the less exposed runners in the field and with more to come, he rates a strong contender for the frame.

The shortlist is completed by Dan Skelton’s Master Jake whose victory at Sedgefield a couple of weeks ago, took his record to three wins from five starts over hurdles. He has been ridden by today’s rider Bridget Andrews on his last three starts so she knows the horse well and he seems to enjoy being ridden towards the head of affairs. That could keep him out of trouble in such a big field and with the trends seemingly speaking in his favour, he rates a lively outsider at around the 16/1 mark.

You could easily make cases for several more of the field including Harry Whittington’s Bigmartre who has run in graded company this term as well as Nicky Henderson’s last time out winner Nesterenko and Brian Ellison’s Always Resolute.

Shortlist

Boite

Allee Bleue

Master Jake

[Grand National Tips]

5.15 Aintree – Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Grade 3) (HANDICAP RACE)

Despite Many Clouds’ famous win last season, nine of the last ten winners of the Grand National have been aged between nine and 11, so this is certainly not a race in which younger horses have done well yet not a race for those past their prime either. The last time, previously to Many Clouds, that there was a winner younger than nine was 14 years ago when Bindaree landed the spoils for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team and before him you have to go back to another eight-year-old, Party Politics who won in 1992. Seven horses aged eight take part in the race this season, including Wonderful Charm, Gilgamboa, Unioniste, Ucello Conti and The Last Samuri, so while that age group hasn’t had a great record in the race, there’s certainly plenty of class in their ranks this year. Onenightinvienna and Vieux Lion Rouge will both be bidding to become the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bogskar triumphed in 1940.  Although Many Clouds managed to break the trend last year and the class of the eight-year-olds in the race does seem to rise every year, it’s probably safest to steer towards the nine to eleven-year-old age group when making your selection.

An equally strong trend is that a win over a distance of three miles or further is something that all of the last ten winners had on their CV. In fact this trend can be stretched back to 1970 and it is hardly surprising given the extreme stamina test the race provides. There are nine members of this year’s field who still have these major doubts surrounding their stamina including Ballycasey, Ballynagour, Gilgamboa and Buywise – given how far this run goes back, it seems wise to rule these horses out at this stage, especially with some cut in the ground forecast, making really getting the trip all the more important.

Given the perceived effort that horses have to give in the Grand National, it might be sensible to support a horse returning from a long lay-off. However, the statistics suggest that a run within the last 50 days is the optimum, accounting for nine of the last ten winners. The only exception during this period was the 2012 winner Neptune Collonges who managed to win following an absence of 56 days. Whilst you might still be thinking this makes little difference, consider that the last winner to defy the trend before Neptune Collonges was Aldaniti in 1981. This year there are eight of the field who will attempt to buck the trend including the likes of First Lieutenant, Soll, Sir Des Champs and Black Thunder. It seems that match practice goes a long way in the Grand National and it would therefore seem sensible to stick with those who have run in the last fifty days, putting them in peak shape for this unique test.

The Irish angle is one to take good notice of, especially considering 13 of the last 17 horses to win the race were bred in the country and Irish-trained horses have been successful in seven of the last 17 renewals. Although the Irish trainers haven’t had a successful contender since Gordon Elliot’s Silver Birch won in 2007, it does seem high time that one came along, so when you look at the very strong entry including the well-fancied contenders Goonyella, Morning Assembly, Boston Bob, Gallant Oscar and Ucello Conti, they could be the ones to regain the crown for Ireland.

Twelve of the last 19 winners of the Grand National has finished at least placed in another ‘national’ of some shape or form either in Ireland or in Britain, something Goonyella, Shutthefrontdoor, Vics Canvas and Rule The World all gain a boost from. Of course Many Clouds and Saint Are, last year’s 1-2 in this race also meet this criterion, but only one of the last 73 horses to have won or placed in this great race had managed to win it the following year, so those mark ups should possibly be taken with a pinch of salt.

One final factor worthy of mention is the betting market. One of the great attractions of the Grand National is that it is perceived to be something of a lottery where big-priced winners can often prevail. In the last ten years, we’ve seen 33/1, 100/1, 33/1, 66/1, 25/1 and 25/1 winners, with no winner under 14/1 in the past five renewals. The rising quality of the race has seemed to make it even more unpredictable than ever before, with even more horses possessing the required ability to win the race actually taking part. In fact, there are very few also-rans in this year’s renewal and it’s very difficult to totally rule out many at all, so don’t home in on the first few in the market and forget the rest, the winner of the Grand National can come from anywhere.

Shortlist

Goonyella – 9/10

Shutthefrontdoor – 9/10

Many Clouds – 7/10

Holywell – 7/10 

Conclusion

Oddly for a 40-runner race, only one horse stands a point clear of the rest at the head of the trends table. JJ Burke’s mount GOONYELLA has the experience of running in the Scottish, Midlands and Irish Grand Nationals, finishing second, first and seventh in those respectively. He’s always looked the perfect type for the Aintree Grand national and if trainer Jim Dreaper has him in top form, the ground, trip and big field will hold no fears for him. He carries a nice racing weight at 10-8 and, at his 20/1 price, looks a decent bet for this year’s big race, just as long as he takes a little better to these national fences – he’s unseated and finished ninth in the last two Becher Chases.

After finishing fifth in last year’s Grand National under Sir A P McCoy, Shutthefrontdoor comes into this year’s renewal a year older and with plenty less expectation to carry on his shoulders. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has a great record in the race and owner JP McManus’ colours are often carried well in Grand Nationals. O’Neill seems to think that the extra year of maturity will help this horse stay the trip better and he’ll have to after weakening at the elbow in 2015’s renewal – he travelled very well through that race, possibly too well and if he can get into a good rhythm and save a little more energy, he could be right there at the business end again. The trends have him as a clear second pick and also at 20/1, he’s certainly a very fair each-way bet.

Last year’s winner Many Clouds has history against him, with only one of the last 73 winners or placed horses going on to win again, but with a perfect preparation and a clear love of the track and trip, he’s absolutely impossible to rule out. Yes he carries a little more than last year and may of his rivals have pulls at the weights, but he’s still only nine and could well have improved. His price may have gone at 8/1, but he looks sure to run well again.

Amongst the group of seven horses who tick seven of the ten trends boxes is another Jonjo O’Neill trained horse, Holywell, who is infamous for only showing his best form in the spring time. He ran very well behind Un Temps Pour Tout at Cheltenham, who went off favourite for the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase here on Friday ahead of RSA winner Blaklion, and if he can carry that form on here to a venue he’s usually gone well at and stay the trip, he’ll hold superb claims as he’s officially 4lb well-in. 16/1 certainly looks fair for a horse of this high ability.

[Doncaster Saturday (Inc. Lincoln H'cap )]

2.20 Kelso – Isle Of Skye Blended Scotch Whisky Handicap Hurdle.

This looks a tricky little handicap hurdle and whilst he does have to concede weight to all his rivals here, I find it hard to get away from the chances of SILSOL. His trainer Paul Nicholls has an excellent strike-rate at Kelso in recent seasons having saddled three winners from his last six runners at the course and the seven-year-old comes here on the back of a decent effort behind Reve De Sivola last time. He has spent most of this season over fences but his current mark of 152 is just 1lb higher than the mark he won the Welsh Champion Hurdle off in January last year. The usual cheekpieces that he wears are replaced with blinkers for this assignment and having raced in snatches last time, clearly connections are hoping these help him to travel a bit better. His opposition are far from no-hopers but his overall ability and the record of his trainer here mean he gets the vote.

Donald Whillans’ Shades Of Midnight has won his last two starts, most recently when winning over 2m4d at Ayr three weeks ago. Having been raided 13lb for his first win, he went up another 7lb for this latest success but in fairness he won with plenty in hand last time and could be open to further improvement. The six-year-old is clearly progressing but whether he is as effective on a sounder surface only time will tell. He shouldn’t be too far away from the pace and could be the one to benefit should the selection underperform.

David Pipe’s runner Top Wood is also worth a second look having travelled well for a long way before falling in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago. He hasn’t run over hurdles since finishing fourth in a Pertemps Qualifier last January and his handicap is 4lb lower over hurdles than it is over fences. David Pipe is not afraid to send his runners up to the north and normally they aren’t too far away. It is hard to know what effect his latest fall may have had on the six-year-old but if he is none the worse for that run, he could run a big race.

Advice

SILSOL – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Betbright)

  
2.35 Newbury – The Betfred ‘Follow Us On Twitter’ Handicap Chase.

Although he has proven to be expensive to follow for a couple of years now, Philip Hobbs seems to have found a much easier opening for FINGAL BAY and he is fancied to regain the winning thread. It’s over two years since he last got his head in front, when winning the Pertemps Final in 2014, and you have to go back to October 2012 for his last chase win. However, he has finished in the frame on each of the last six occasions he has completed over fences and continues to drop in the handicap. The now ten-year-old finds himself on a career-low mark of 140 and contests a Class 2 handicap chase for the very first time this afternoon. Although he has won on heavy ground, boggy conditions aren’t ideal for him and the sounder surface he will encounter here should be right up his street (only failed to finish out of the top 3 once with good in the going description). He can be forgiven a below-par effort at Cheltenham latest over an inadequate trip and is the one to beat.

In contrast, Tour Des Champs has shown his best form when faced with a proper test of stamina which may just count against him here. Nevertheless, you couldn’t fail to be impressed with the manner of his facile victory in the Sussex National on Sunday and a 7lb penalty for that win could prove to be good value. Although he did it easily, three-and-a-half miles in soft ground will still take a bit out of a horse and it is not often that you would see one turned out so soon. I can’t believe that connections would run him if he was feeling any adverse effects and they obviously think he is ahead of his mark but there is that nagging doubt that he may not be tip-top and the drying ground clearly doesn’t do him any favours.

One that bounced back to form recently is Benvolio and I have believed since his novice days that there is a big race to be run with him. He couldn’t have finished much closer when narrowly outpointed in the 2014 Welsh National but that effort seemed to leave his mark and it has taken him until last month’s solid third at Taunton to get back on track. He is another that won’t be thrilled to see the ground continuing to dry as he seems at his best in a real slog these days but it is interesting to see that Sam Twiston-Davies has chosen him over Tour Des Champs, who he rode to victory on Sunday.

Harry’s Farewell is also worthy of a mention and he has been in very good form this campaign. He is only 6lb higher than when landing a course and distance handicap at the Hennessy Meeting earlier in the season (with subsequent Classic Chase winner Russe Blanc back in second) and has continued in good heart since. He fell at the first in the race won by The Last Samuri at Kempton over Christmas before finishing third in a hot handicap back there in January. He was only beaten by leading Grand National fancy Kruzhlinin and subsequent Sandown winner Le Reve that day so the form reads well. He comes from a small yard but cannot be discounted.

Advice

FINGAL BAY – 2pts win @ 4/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

 
3.05 Newbury – The Betfred ‘Goals Galore Extra’ Handicap Chase.

This looks a rather tricky little contest but a chance is taken on a change of surroundings revitalising ART OF LOGISTICS. Upon winning the Grade 3 Buck House Novice Chase at Punchestown in October 2013 for the late Dessie Hughes, I thought that he could really make his mark at the highest level. However, he lost his way somewhat following a couple of wins the following summer and was snapped up by Philip Hobbs earlier this year. It seems a smart move as spring/summer is definitely his time of year and the drying ground will certainly be to his advantage. Granted, a leap of faith is required as he hasn’t been on top form for some time but he couldn’t be in better hands and is certainly worth a gamble.

Thomas Crapper has been a consistent yardstick for some time now but has proven expensive to follow from a win point of view over fences. Surprisingly, he is still a novice after eleven chasing attempts, finishing runner-up on no less than five occasions and coming third three times. He again ran respectably when third behind Henryville in an Exeter novice chase last month but never really looked like mounting a serious challenge, looking one-paced when the race started to hot up. There is little doubt that he has the class for a contest like this and is now back to the same mark on which he finished second to Irish Cavalier at last year’s Cheltenham Festival but his reluctance to get his head in front is a worry from a win perspective.

With Kerry Lee seemingly having the world at her feet at the moment, Simply Wings must be taken seriously. He is only 2lb higher than when winning at Southwell back in November and can be forgiven a couple of lesser efforts in hot handicaps at Newbury and Doncaster. His latest runners-up effort at Leicester was a pleasing return to form, only being beaten by the highly progressive Stilletto and finishing well clear of the rest of the field. He does seem to like to get his toe in nowadays though which may go against him if the ground continues to dry.

Morning Reggie can’t go without a mention and he looks potentially well treated with only a 2lb rise for his latest win. He showed his gutsiness when grinding out the victory as he was entangled in a ding-dong battle with Minella Reception from 2 out and kept on going all the way to the line. He is the youngest horse in the race at seven and is clearly going in the right direction. He will probably stay further than this in time but 2m4f looks his trip at the moment and he has to enter calculations.

Advice

ART OF LOGISTICS – 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betbright)

3.25 Kelso – Liz Adam Memorial Chase.

Not quite the spectacle the race may have been after Simonsig and Vibrato Valtat weren’t declared, but still a decent contest nonetheless. Simply Ned heads them up and on his best form, he’d have a great chance even with this penalty – his third place in the Paddy Power chase at Naas was a fair effort last time out and even though he has come up short at the very top level, a race such as this is a good opportunity for him to get his head back in front for the first time since October.

Upsilon Bleu comes into the race in cracking form, having won on his last outing at Doncaster in decent handicap company, but having to run off the same weight as Simply Ned could be too much of a big ask, even though that Doncaster win was quite impressive.

Last seen finishing sixth in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, in front of 2015 winner Dodging Bullets and 2014 winner Sire De Grugy, JUST CAMERON goes into this getting 8lb from the top two in the race and judging by his rating of 150, that brings him right up to the top of the table with Simply Ned. Micky Hammond’s nine-year-old always seems to come into his own at this time of year and the slower pace of this compared to the Champion Chase should suit him well – I can’t see him being out of the frame in this.

Savello was last seen finishing fourth in the Grand Annual, the curtain fall of the Cheltenham Festival and that form would give him claims, however, the form line between himself and Just Cameron through the second in the Grand Annual that day, Dandridge doesn’t make good reading. Savello was just 2 ¼ lengths back from Dandridge giving him 3lbs (with Bridget Andrews’ 5lb claim factored in), but when you consider that Just Cameron was 5 lengths behind that same rival at Doncaster when giving him 27lb all in, you can see the swing.

Advice

JUST CAMERON – 1pt win @ 100/30 (Betfair Sportsbook)

 
3.40 Newbury – EBF & TBA Mares’ ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle Finale(Listed Race)

Always a difficult puzzle to solve, the Listed Mares’ Final looks to be another very competitive affair this year. Oliver Sherwood has won this twice in the last ten years and he saddles Surtee Du Berlais in this year’s contest. She’s got some decent form, even in defeat to Myska at Taunton and Savingforvegas at Warwick latest – the step up to an extended two and a half miles seemed to draw more improvement from her last time out. She was battling back at the line and a well-run contest at this trip should suit her nicely. However, the mare will have to give a fair chunk of weight (at least 5lb) to some other promising mares here and that could prove too much come the finish.

Rene’s Girl looked decent in beating Hollies Pearl and then Pulling Power at this longer trip, before winning at 2m under a penalty proved only just too much. She’s another for whom a well-run race at two and a half miles should help and with the Skelton yard in good form, you certainly wouldn’t count against a bit of improvement from this mare on only her fifth run over hurdles.

Barry Geraghty has been booked to ride BRIERY QUEEN for Noel Williams, a statement of intent that the market hasn’t missed, installing the mare as 9/2 favourite for the race. Her two encounters with this trip on decent ground have been mightily impressive, defeating the useful Robins Reef at Doncaster and then Maid Of Milan at the same venue in early March. She looks to have more improvement to come and looks to hold a real favourite’s chance.

Lady Of Lamanver gets a fair chunk of weight from all her major rivals and should hold fair claims here, even though she’s still a maiden for Harry Fry. In only just failing to reel in Lucy Wadham’s Sunshine Corner last time out, she recorded her best effort so far, but needs to improve again to be involved at the business end. Her lack of any wins is a worry too.

Advice

BRIERY QUEEN – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)

 
4.15 Newbury – Doom Bar Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

Philip Hobbs’ Jaboltiski may have disappointed last time when midfield behind Adrien Du Pont in a very heavy-ground race at Chepstow, but he looks to hold good claims here under Richard Johnson, who has won both times he’s sat on this four-year-old. The extra two furlongs over the bare two miles should help, as will the better ground, and his defeat of the re-opposing Duke Street on his hurdles debut, makes for good reading in this company.

Akavit was pulled up in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, but if you look at his eight-length win over Seven Kingdoms at Sandown, he’d have a great chance here. If Ed De Giles’ four-year-old can gain an uncontested lead and get into a good rhythm, he could be dangerous, even though he’s towards the top of the weights.
Jonjo O’Neill’s PILLARD finished 13th in the same Fred Winter and never really had a chance to get involved after being held up in the rear of the contest throughout. His previous seconds, while a little disappointing at the time, still showed a decent level of form and he’s clearly highly-rated enough to be making the trip to Cheltenham, so I’d expect plenty of improvement in first-time cheekpieces and on this better ground that he seems to enjoy.

Paul Nicholls, so often the number one name in the world of Juvenile hurdlers, saddles Clic Work here, who, while clearly needing to improve on his 20 length fifth place to Allee Bleue, should be much better for that English debut and can’t be ruled out confidently. The son of Network should appreciate this better ground and slightly longer trip and if anyone can improve these four-year-olds very quickly, Nicholls can.

Advice

PILLARD – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Betbright)

[Saturday Racing 26th Mar (Dubai World Cup)]

2.10 Meydan – Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored By Meydan Hotels & Hospitality (Group 1) 

Won last year by the returning Sole Power, the Al Quoz Sprint is always run at good clip, which can suit those who can settle either just behind the leaders or those that like swooping fast and late. Clearly Edward Lynam’s stable star benefitted from the scorching early pace last season and came with a strong late run to take glory from Peniaphobia, who was much closer to the pace.

It could well be a similar race this year, with only Not Listenin’tome, Sole Power, Muthmir and Sir Maximilian horses who seem to enjoy a hold-up style of riding. There is a huge amount of pace and prominent racers drawn low, so expect the Australian challenger, ridden by Ryan Moore, and Sole Power with Chris Hayes up, to get a great tow along into the closing stages of the race. From there, it will be all about whether they get the breaks or not. SOLE POWER’s reappearance run this year was light-years better than this time last year, you would have to think he’ll have come on plenty for that and so goes into this race with a huge chance . Even though he’s ‘getting on’ for a sprinter now, he looks overpriced at 13/2 (Skybet).

Not Listenin’tome is a fascinating contender for trainer John Moore, especially with the world’s number one jockey on board. All of the horse’s last three wins have come at this distance at Sha Tin and his patient style could work well here as he’s drawn alongside prominent racers Bel Canto, Peniaphobia, Ertijaal and Jungle Cat. He was just a length back from Peniaphobia in the Group 1 Hong Kong Sprint in December and although he was 2 ½ lengths further back from that rival in the Group 1 Centenary Sprint Cup, he was badly hampered in the final furlong. All in all, if you’re looking for an interesting each-way bet who’ll love the fast pace, he’s a decent shout at 8/1 (bet365).

I’ve already mentioned him quite a lot, but the Joao Moreira-ridden Peniaphobia is a very high-class sprinter who is always there or thereabouts in the biggest contests. He was the victim of the classic Sole Power late swoop last year. He’ll almost certainly race right at the front of proceedings and if he can get his own way in the battle for the lead, he’ll be very dangerous. But when he’s challenged up front, he doesn’t often win and that could again be the scenario here, even though he’s a very solid proposition in terms of running his race and doing himself justice.

The current favourite for the race is Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Ertijaal, who has taken to sprinting like a duck to water after spending most of his time at seven furlongs. He’s been mightily impressive in two good handicap races over C&D and even though it’s always a massive step-up to Group 1 level, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility to see him powering off from the front, not to be caught. However, he beat Fityaan by two lengths last time, and despite improving since, that horse is still 33/1 here, so at a price of around 3/1, Ertijaal seems quite short for what he’s achieved.

Goldream, as a Palace House, King’s Stand and Prix De L’Abbaye winner, is entitled to the greatest of respect and even though he ran a modest race on his Meydan debut a few weeks ago, he’ll have to come here with a good chance if he’s fit and ready to go. Robert Cowell is a master with sprinters and this horse is testament to his skills. If he’s come on for that last run (did look like he needed it) he’s way too big a price at 12/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral) and he’ll stalk the fast early pace to try and pounce later on. I can see him running well.

The likes of Jungle Cat, Muthmir and Sir Maximilian, while having good form and certainly holding chances, could find a couple too good here – Muthmir probably holds the best chance of those.

Advice

SOLE POWER – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (SkyBet, 888Sport, 32Red)

 
                                                                                           3.45 Meydan – Dubai Turf Sponsored By DP World (Group 1)

Tryster is the horse on everyone’s lips; two stunning performances in his last-to-first style in two runs in Dubai this year has got Charlie Appleby purring about his five-year-old’s chances in this Group 1. He certainly has a top-class turn of foot off a steady pace, and unless front-runners try to draw the sting out of him, he’ll be a huge threat. However, he’s only really contested at the very top table once, in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown last season, where he disappointed, finishing last of five. His Group 1 win last time out was in a very weak affair and I’m really not sure whether a race like this, certain to be run at a decent clip, will suit his style. He’s far too short for me at 2/1 or shorter anyway given he’s never gone up against the ‘big boys’ with any success.

Godolphin also has the exciting filly Very Special in the race, and I think this is a horse with a great chance at odds that seem too big (14/1 in places). The four-year-old is related to Chriselliam and Mengli Khan, so there’s real ability in her bloodline and she’s been improving at a rate of knots – whatever you might say about Ryan Moore’s ride on Euro Charline in the Group 2 that Very Special won last time out; it seemed that she was holding the runner up anyway. She is headstrong, and will certainly be up there for the lead throughout, but she’s getting better with age and she stays this nine furlong trip well. She’ll go well from the front under James Doyle and has decent claims with her 5lb fillies’ allowance.

Roger Varian looks set to have a monster season this year, and he could well kick things off with a bang here as his hugely exciting colt INTILAAQ has to have a huge chance in a race of this nature. Touted as a possible Derby horse last year, those plans had to be shelved as he found the Guineas too much on just his third start, but his two wins since; one over Consort at Newbury and the romp at Haydock when beating Master Carpenter by five lengths, have been wildly impressive and there are big hopes for him this year. He’ll love the strong pace that Very Special will help set, and there won’t be many staying on as strongly as him at the end – I expect him to sit handily under Paul Hanagan from a decent middle draw in eight, and kick on rounding the bend, challenging the leader and daring the likes of Tryster to come and catch him. I think he’s very good and 5/2 certainly isn’t a prohibitive price in a race that could pan out perfectly for him.

Ryan Moore is booked for the ride on Real Steel, the Japanese contender, trained by Yoshito Yahagi and the son of Deep Impact has run consistently well in high-class races in Japan for a year now. However, he hasn’t won since his debut, where he beat Duramente by half a length in a Group 3 and he always seems to just get beaten despite staying on well at the end of his races. He’s also been running at all sorts of different trips, from nine furlongs to almost two miles, so it’s possible that he’ll find everything happening too fast for him again here, before staying on well towards the end.

Forries Waltz is another who’s unbeaten this season and Mike De Kock’s number one in the race has improved for the extra distance, registering a decent figure in taking a Group 2 last time out. It goes without saying that he’ll have to improve further to be in with a chance of winning here though, but it’s not something that can be ruled out given he’s with South Africa’s master trainer.

Skimming through the rest fo the field, the likes of The Corsican, Basateen and Gabrial stand out – The first and last mentioned have a habit of performing well in big races at big prices and can go better than their price suggests while Basateen could be anything now after his switch to Doug Watson’s stable – he’ll have to improve again on his impressive seasonal reappearance but he’s always been highly regarded and with Pat Dobbs on board, he’s not one to rule out lightly at a big price.

Advice

INTILAAQ – 2pts win @ 5/2 (General)

                                                                                              4.20 Meydan – Dubai Sheema Classic Presented By Longines (Group 1) 

This seems a three-horse race, with big challenges from Britain, Japan and Ireland, all with good Graded form.

POSTPONED currently heads the market for Roger Varian and if he can reproduce the form of his win in the King George VI Stakes, he’ll be very tough to beat. He’s got good pace angles either side in Gailo Chop and Highland Reel, so even though he’s drawn only two from the outside, he’ll still get a decent tow into the race. His win on his first visit to Meydan, in the Group 2 City Of Gold where he outpaced and outclassed Dariyan to win by a very easy three lengths, was mightily impressive and it could be the case that he’s improved for the switch in stable and the return to quicker ground. Conditions will be perfect for him here and there should be no excuses.

The ‘hype horse’ from Japan, Duramente has been targeted at this since he won the Japanese Derby in May of last year and given this will only be the fifth run of his career, you can expect him still to be improving. The mile and a half trip seems to suit him well and as long as he doesn’t get himself too far back in the field, giving Postponed and co. a start, he should go well. This is, however, his first run outside of his native Japan and you’d have to worry whether he has the experience at this level to make sure he does himself justice, even though he’s clearly extremely talented and receives the 2lb weight allowance by virtue of being a four-year-old.

Aidan O’Brien throws a dart at this hugely lucrative prize with Highland Reel, who is likely to break smartly from stall 8 under Ryan Moore and make his way to the front of proceedings. In beating the proven high-class yardstick Flintshire at Sha Tin in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase in December, the four-year-old recorded his best ever performance and seems to still be improving. If Moore can get him to the front and dictate the pace, he’s already shown he can mix it with the better performers – the 2lb four-year-old’s allowance can only help and he should be there or thereabouts.

The only other one that could possibly be able to mix it with these three could be the outsider of the whole field. The Blue Eye is something of an unknown quantity; last seen impressively bolting up in the Group 1 HH The Emir’s Trophy in Qatar, beating Irish St Leger second Agent Murphy into fourth by almost six lengths. Even though that clearly wasn’t a strong Group 1 in global terms, he could be flying under the radar with improvement to come. There’s certainly been worse 50/1 shots in these big races so keep an eye on Harry Bentley’s mount.

Advice

POSTPONED – 2pts win @ 13/8 (Paddy Power)

 
                                                                                                              5.00 Meydan – Dubai World Cup.

California Chrome was well-fancied to win this race twelve months ago and having seemingly got the perfect trip, he was no match for the winner Prince Bishop. They went a strong pace last year and he sat quite close to it and although he was running on again at the finish, his finishing burst seemed to be blunted by the overly strong pace. His trainer believes that he is in much better form this year although it is hard to gauge following two straight-forward successes this year. There is the potential for a strong pace once again this year with several of the main protagonists likely to race handily and this would cause slight concerns about taking a short price here. On official ratings he is the horse to beat but not by as much as the market would suggest and in an open race, I think it is worth looking elsewhere.

Kiaran McLaughlin’s Frosted is one who could be ridden with more restraint and no doubt connections will be hoping that William Buick can repeat the same tactics which saw Prince Bishop win last year. He has won two of his last three starts with the middle of those having seen him disappoint in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland in October. All appeared to be well with the four-year-old on his return to action here at Meydan in February and with that being his first run since October, you would have to expect him to benefit from the run. He looks to have a solid chance but the form of his latest run isn’t that great and I think he is short enough at around the 5/2 mark.

One horse who could play an important role in the outcome of the race is Special Fighter who made all when winning the Al Maktoum Challenge impressively earlier this month. He set steady early fractions before kicking off the bend and his rivals were no match for him as he stretched clear to win by four and a half lengths. He is unlikely to be able to dictate steady fractions this time and with that in mind could set the race up nicely for one of the closers. He was well beaten by Frosted in February although he raced off the pace that day and these new tactics could well see him outrun his sizeable odds.

Having considered all of this I am going to take a chance on KEEN ICE who showed how effective he was off a strong pace when winning the Travers Stakes in August, beating both Frosted and American Pharoah. He was disappointing last time behind Special Fighter but his rider Ryan Moore said that he didn’t enjoy racing closer to the pace and that the pace was not quick enough for the four-year-old. I think the bookmakers may well have over-reacted by pushing him so far out in the market and with a stronger pace to run at he can step forward significantly on that effort. He has been drawn in stall1 which should mean he doesn’t get trapped wide like he did last time and he has been fitted with blinkers in a bid to bring about further improvement from him. It would not be the first time that a big-priced horse has won the race and I think he is worth taking a chance on in what is a wide-open contest.

Advice

KEEN ICE – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

[Good Friday Racing (Inc. AW Championships)]

 1.40 Lingfield – The 32Red All-Weather Fillies’ and Mares’ Championships Conditions Stakes 

As with all races on Finals Day, this looks a lot more competitive than your usual conditions race but COLD AS ICE could well prove to be a class apart as the remainder fight it out for the minor honours. The four-year-old landed a pair of Grade 2s in her native South Africa and was only a short head away from a Grade 1 victory on her latest start there. She joined William Haggas with lofty expectations but looked like she needed the run on her British debut at Wolverhampton in November. She was a completely different proposition at Chelmsford next time out, making all for an eye-catching victory. The four-year-old was sent off favourite in the Listed Cleves Stakes at the beginning of February and shaped well over the inadequate six furlong trip, staying on well like a winner in waiting to grab third place. She needed that third qualifying run to make it here and although not helped by the draw (stuck widest of all out in stall 10), she will be difficult to pass if breaking quickly and making her way to the front.
Volunteer Point is closest to the selection on official ratings and is probably the biggest danger in the field. She was consistent without being spectacular on the turf last season but has really made a name for herself since switching to the artificial surface.  The main concern with her would be the trip as although she was successful in a Fast Track Qualifier over seven furlongs at Chelmsford, she left it until the last minute that day and is evidently more at home over slightly further.
I’m always one to look out for those in first-time headgear and that is even more prevalent on the all-weather. Three of the field are sporting blinkers for the first time here, one of which is particular interesting. Alfajer has been frustrating to follow having only won one of her twelve career starts but she is ultra-consistent and always gives her running. The application of blinkers may be just the ticket to get the best out of her.

Advice

COLD AS ICE – 3pts win @ 8/11 (Betvictor)

 
                                                                         2.10 Lingfield – The Unibet All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes.

It is a travesty that this is only a conditions race but it can only be a matter of time before it achieves pattern status. This season’s renewal looks the strongest yet in the sprint division and should be a cracking contest on paper.

The default in most conditions events is to look for the highest rated horse in the field as, in theory, they should be well in on their lower rated rivals. However, we have four of the 14-strong field on a mark of 109 which makes our job even harder. Chookie Royale has thrived since the introduction of the All-Weather Championships and is a real specialist on artificial surfaces. He contested the Mile Championship at the inaugural Finals Day and was a close third in this race last year. In contrast to previous campaigns, he has done most of his racing over sprint trips in the lead up to this and six furlongs could well be his bag nowadays. That being said, he hasn’t proven to be dominant at the highest level and is likely to find one or two too good again.

Lightscameraction is a most interesting contender having landed the 3 Year Old Sprint Championship on last year’s card. He was campaigned in some fairly hot company on the back of that and it wasn’t until returning to the all-weather that he started showing some of his old gusto. He arrives in good shape having landed the Listed Hever Sprint Stakes last time out but all of his four wins have come over the minimum trip of five furlongs and six just seems to stretch him.

The remaining two top-rated are the top two in the betting and GOKEN is of most interest. The now four-year-old started off his career in France and was thought of highly enough to be pitched into the Abbaye as a juvenile. He ran some good races last campaign but wad found out in the Commonwealth Cup and King George Stakes over the summer. Following that, he joined Kevin Ryan and was put away until landing the Listed Golden Rose Stakes in November, booking his ticket here as that was a Fast Track Qualifier. He travelled strongly that day and eased through the gears for a comfortable win. Connections feel that he could be a leading light in the sprinting division and form a plum draw in stall 1, he is ideally placed to serve it up to the field with his customary front-running tactics.

Lancelot Du Lac is a worthy favourite on the back of his comfortable win of a Fast Track Qualifier at Chelmsford in January but he has a lot to do to be competitive from stall 13. Dean Ivory’s charge is probably the best of the field on the turf and finished a close third in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last year. He contested the inaugural running of this race and was rather unlucky having suffered a troubled passage that thwarted any chance he had of troubling the principals. He is a likeable type that generally gives his running but it will be tough for him to join the front rank from his wide draw.

The Irish had never been renowned for their sprinters but with the likes of Sole Power, Slade Power and Gordon Lord Byron landing big pots in recent years, they need taking seriously. Russian Soul is the only challenger from across the Irish Sea and he warrants careful consideration. He was a narrow winner at Dundalk a fortnight ago, the race that qualified him to take up this engagement. However, he was found out when finishing last in the Hever Sprint Stakes and although the five furlongs there probably didn’t see him to best effect, this looks an even tougher contest.

Advice

GOKEN – 1pt win @ 4/1 (General)

 
                                                                            2.40 Lingfield – The 32Red All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes.

A tricky race to try and assess put the percentage play is MOONRISE LANDING who Is the highest rated horse in the field and is at least 3lb well in on the rest of the field. The mare was a shock winner on her racecourse debut as a three-year-old, although connections were less surprised and she was immediately pitched in at the deep end with her very next run being in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. That may have come too soon for her and she was off the track for a year on the back of it. Last season didn’t get off to the greatest of starts for her and although she showed improvement to finish second at Newmarket in June, her form steadily slipped away. She didn’t find her feet until the autumn but since then she hasn’t looked back. She showed a gutsy attitude to land a 1m4f Newmarket handicap (on ground softer than ideal) which prompted Ralph Beckett to step her up in trip. That decision has paid off in spades as she romped home in a Kempton handicap over 2m in November before landing a hot looking Fast Track Qualifier at Wolverhampton the following month. This would be another step up but she is a stayer on a steep upward curve and is fancied to continue going in the right direction.

Anglophile has been a model of consistency, finishing in the first two in each of his last nine starts. He was well fancied in this last year and almost rewarded favourite backers when only coming up short by a neck. Connections resisted the urge to send him on the turf in the summer so he arrives here fresh having only had three runs since Finals Day last year. He does stay well but has had a penchant for finding one too good and may have to settle for minor honours once again.

Last year’s winning trainer Andrew Balding is again represented and the lightly-raced Ballynanty is an interesting contender. The grey colt didn’t break his duck until November last year and although he is winless since, he has run some decent races in defeat behind a couple of re-opposing rivals today. Having had only seven career starts, and only one over this trip, he has the most scope for improvement in the field and must be considered.

The final one to mention is Notarised who, although more exposed than most, is a bit of an unknown quantity on the all-weather. The Old Newton Cup winner has only ever graced the polytrack three times, the last of which was a commanding victory in a Fast Track Qualifier at Chelmsford which earned him his place in the field. He is more battle-hardened than many of his rivals here and if granted an easy lead, the race could fall in his lap. However, his lack of all-weather experience is a concern and he is probably best watched on this occasion.

 
Advice

MOONRISE LANDING – 1pt win @ 5/2 (BetVictor)

                                                                                  3.15 Lingfield – Ladbrokes All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes.

Last year’s renewal of this race could give us a strong guide as to the outcome of this year’s contest with several of the field re-opposing. Roger Varian’s Mindurownbusiness has been popular in the market and looks likely to go off favourite at this stage but connections will no doubt be hoping he gets a smoother trip than last year. He was squeezed for room at a crucial stage twelve months ago and despite running on in the closing stages, he could only finish ninth, for all he was beaten only three and a half lengths on the day. He has subsequently won three of his last four starts with his only defeat coming when stepped up to 1m2f here in December. He clearly has strong claims and is right up there in terms of official ratings but I think he is worth taking on at around the 2/1 mark.

Tracey Collin’s Captain Joy was only beaten half a length in last year’s race and in truth he just seemed to find one or two too good on the day. He only had a couple of runs on the turf last summer before getting colic but he made a winning return to action at Dundalk in February.  His trainer was adamant that he will come on for that run following such a lengthy absence but whether he will be able to go a couple of places better this time around is hard to say.

The one who stands out from the 2015 renewal is SOVEREIGN DEBT who just got stopped at the wrong time and with a clear run may well have landed the spoils. He also came from further back than most of his rivals and he looks a pretty unlucky loser on the day. He was mightily consistent throughout the summer on the grass, winning Group 3 and Listed contests in Ireland and he was a little unlucky to lose out in a photo at Wolverhampton a couple of weeks ago. That was his first run since December and he also had to concede 5lb to all of his rivals, something which he doesn’t have to do on Friday. I expect him to step forward from that run and at around the 11/4 mark, I prefer his claims over those of the favourite.

Perhaps the most intriguing runner in the race is Roger Charlton’s Captain Cat who took the inaugural running of this race two years ago, showing a smart turn of foot to mow down his rivals late on. It is fair to say that he has failed to repeat that effort consistently in the last two years but he managed to get his head in front for the first time since 2014 at Kempton last month. Until then he had been held up in his races but he seemed to enjoy the front-running tactics employed by Jamie Spencer and it will be interesting to see how George Baker rides him here. He is clearly not the most straight-forward but he does have plenty of ability on his best days and he could be the one to watch outside the front two in the market.

Advice

SOVEREIGN DEBT – 2pts win @ 11/4 (Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes)

 
                                                                           3.45 Lingfield – Coral Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes.

Godolphin’s Tryster blitzed his rivals in this race twelve months ago and whilst there doesn’t look to be a performer of that quality in this year’s field, it still looks pretty strong for the level.

Marco Botti’s GRENDISAR tops the market and despite previously having been considered a little bit tricky, he has been in the form of his life this winter. His last two successes have come over course and distance including a most impressive victory in the Winter Derby last time. He has to be delivered at the last minute which makes him a hostage to fortune but he has a potent turn of foot, which has proved too much for his rivals on his recent starts. At around the 6/5 mark he is short enough but he beat several of these last time and in truth it is hard to see any of them reversing the form.

Maverick Wave was the rival who got closest to the favourite in the Winter Derby having set the pace but he didn’t have any response to the winner’s turn of foot. That was his first run for a little while so he should have improved physically but his form on the whole is hard to weigh up. I wouldn’t read too much into his defeat in handicap company last time where he was conceding plenty of weight all around and ran well in the circumstances to finish fourth. Perhaps James Doyle will be a little more forceful than Robert Tart was in the Winter Derby but it will still leave him as something of a sitting duck for the favourite to chase in the closing stages.

He could have competition for the lead from Mark Johnston’s Watersmeet who justified short odds when winning at Dundalk three weeks ago. He is unlikely to get things all his own way here and from stall 9 he may have to use up valuable energy early on to secure his position. He looked a bit one-paced when running over course and distance in February and whilst I find it hard to see him winning, he could play a crucial role in setting a strong pace for the market leader to attack late on.

One horse who could give the favourite a fright is Battalion however his tendency to be slowly away from the stalls has cost him his chance in the past. Most recently at Lingfield over course and distance he forfeited plenty of ground and despite finishing fast, he could only finish sixth, beaten four lengths by the winner. He got away with it the time before that but it would be something of a concern for me, especially in a race where the margins between winning and losing are so fine and I think he is best avoided.

Advice

GRENDISAR – 2pts win @ 6/5 (Bet365, William Hill)

  
                                                                          4.15 Lingfield – Unibet 3 Year Old Sprint All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes.

David Evans’ Gracious John has been a revelation this winter having followed his Listed success in France in October with two successes at Lingfield and Kempton. He turned over a smart William Haggas prospect Ornate when winning over course and distance in January and his rider talked very highly of the colt after that run. He was turned over at short odds at Chelmsford last month but he behaved erratically during the race and was found to be lame afterwards so clearly this was not his running. Despite his clear discomfort he was still only beaten a length by two of today’s rivals and he looks likely to run a big race here. He has a plum draw in stall 2 which should enable him to get away quickly and secure a position and on official ratings he sets a lofty standard.

Kadrizzi was the horse who broke Gracious John’s winning sequence at Chelmsford in February and Dean Ivory’s gelding looks to be a sprinter on the up. It was interesting that Robert Winston suggested he may be more of a six furlongs horse following that success and despite staying on in the closing stages next time at Wolverhampton he couldn’t get to the winner. Perhaps the frenetic pace early on will set the race up for him here but whilst he looks a sprinter on the upgrade, I think there are probably a couple in here that will prove too good for him.

One of those could be David Barron’s WOLOWITZ who didn’t break his maiden until December but in two subsequent starts, he has shown himself to be a progressive sprinter. He won with more in hand than the neck winning distance suggested at Wolverhampton last time and having only had five runs to date, there should be more to come from the gelding. The one slight negative would be the draw having been allocated stall 8 but he has shown he is pretty versatile in his short career so far, so he could tuck in rather than racing to the head of affairs. The favourite looks likely to be hard to beat but something went wrong with him last time and with that in mind, I feel it is worth taking a chance on this improving sprinter.

Of those at bigger prices, Field Of Vision makes some each-way appeal at around the 14/1 mark but he has been put in his place by all three of the horses I have mentioned above this year. He has only won once in thirteen starts but it rarely outside of the first three and he could offer some value outside the front three in the betting. The cheekpieces didn’t seem to work last time and with those aides removed now, he could get closer to Wolowitz and Kadrizzi than he did at Wolverhampton last time.

 Advice

WOLOWITZ – 1pt win @ 3/1 (William Hill)

                                                               4.45 Lingfield– The 32Red All-Weather 3 Year Old Mile Championships Conditions Stakes.

The finale of Finals Day looks like a belter and many of these young horses will be well worth following throughout the season. Haalick currently heads the market having landed the Spring Cup on Winter Derby Day. That was a decent win but I would be inclined to take the result with a pinch of salt given the messy nature of the race with three quarters of the field being impeded by the hanging Race Day. Granted, he should well improve for the extra furlong on offer here, but I think he may just be found out in a cleaner run race.

Therefore, preference is for CAPE SPEED who has flourished on the all-weather this winter. He was well backed on his racecourse debut at Ayr back in June but could only finish fifth of six. Having been given a five month break, he returned at Chelmsford in December and showed a game attitude to lead from pillar-to-post and hold off all challengers. The form of that win was franked by the runner-up going in by nine lengths next time out and the now three-year-old duly won again next time out. By far his most impressive victory came at Kempton at the beginning of February when he completed the hat-trick. He was caught out by the strong early pace that day but recovered well to hit the front with over a furlong to run and asserted in fine style, looking as though he was going on at the finish. If he carries on his improvement here, he could be difficult to beat.

Although he has won 2 of his 6 starts, Special Season has been a frustrating horse to follow, being a beaten favourite on three of his other four starts (two at odds-on). He was a comfortable course and distance winner in December but when well fancied for a repeat the following month, he drifted horribly on the final bend and lost all chance. With that in mind, although he clearly has the ability to challenge, it would take a brave man to back him with any confidence.

Advice

CAPE SPEED – 1pt win @ 5/1 (General)

[Saturday Racing - (Inc. Midland National)]

Betfred Midlands Grand National – 4.10 Uttoxeter, Saturday 19th March

When Synchronised landed this race under 11st 5lb in 2010 the ground was almost unraceable, so much so that only three of the eighteen runners actually finished. That may well form part of the reason for his success under such a big weight as usually the Midlands Grand National favours those from towards the bottom of the handicap. In fact nine of the last ten winners have all carried less than eleven stone which suggests all but four of this year’s field are up against it. Rigadin De Beauchene, Courtown Oscar and Count Guido Dero all sit below the required cut-off point whilst Summery Justice also sneaks in with the 5lb claim of Charlie Deutsch.
Synchronised’s was also the highest rated Midlands National winner since Young Kenny in 1999. Both horses were rated in excess of 140 but they appear to be the exception rather than the norm. The most successful band appears to be from 135 or lower, a trait shared by seven of the last ten winners. That also suggests that the top nine as they appear in the racecard have a very tough task on their hands.

As well as a low weight, proven stamina has also proved crucial in this slog over four miles, one and a half furlongs. With this in mind, none of the last ten winners did not have a win to their name over three miles or further prior to winning this contest. This is a major concern for supporters of Mad Brian and Cultram Abbey who have yet to win over the required distance.

Goulanes, who won this race two years ago wasn’t your typical winner in that he was pulled up on his most recent start. Seven of the last ten winners came here on the back of finishing in the first three on their most recent visit to the racecourse. This goes in favour of just over half of the field on this occasion including last time out winners including Milansbar, No Planning and Fourovakind.

One thing that most winners of this race have in common is their ability to jump well, in fact only two of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated in their chasing careers prior to victory here. There are a few in this renewal with patchy jumping records but the six to focus on are Katkeau, Milansbar, Spookydooky, Subtle Grey, Sizing Coal and Courtown Oscar.

It really would be splitting hairs trying to separate the past ten winners by age. Therefore, if we group the runners together, those aged seven, eight and nine are the most successful having taken nine of the last ten renewals. This does not bode well for supporters of the older generation such as Summery Justice, Rigadin De Beauchene, Fourovakind, Golden Chieftain and Mad Brian who will all be attempting to win at the age of ten or above.

The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and despite Goulanes and GVA Ireland landing the spoils for favourite backers, on the whole it has been something of a graveyard for market leaders. The current favourites are Jim Dreaper’s Sizing Coal and Neil King’s Milansbar but both will need to defy this trend to get his head in front.

Shortlist

COURTOWN OSCAR – 7/7

Subtle Grey – 6/7

Count Guido Deiro – 6/7
 
Conclusion

COURTOWN OSCAR tops the shortlist with all things considered as the seven-year-old matches each of the trends that we have mentioned. Philip Kirby’s gelding has been progressing well this winter and has now won three of his last five starts over fences. He has managed to sneak in at the bottom of the weights and with stamina appearing to be one of his biggest strengths, he could run well at what are likely to be sizeable odds.

He is joined on the shortlist by Subtle Grey who finished in front of Courtown Oscar at Carlisle last month and also looks a horse on the up. Donald McCain’s seven-year-old already looks likely to be a better chaser than a hurdler and the only trend he misses is the one relating to weight as he carries 11st 2lb here. He has never run over this far before but he has looked solid stayer in the past so is worth a go at this extreme trip.

The shortlist is completed by Count Guido Deiro who only got into the field following the withdrawal of Peter Bowen’s Berea Boru. His only negative amongst the trends is his jumping as he has twice unseated his rider in just eight starts over fences. He was last seen winning impressively over hurdles at Newbury in February and on the back of that effort he looks potentially well-handicapped over the bigger obstacles. He is also at a big price at 20/1 and if he can get round then he will have more than half a chance.

Advice

COURTOWN OSCAR – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Coral)

[Trull House Stud Mares Novice Hurdle - Thursday 17th]

With this being the inaugural running of this particular contest, we have no trends to go on but if the mares’ hurdle on Tuesday is anything to go by then it could be that the Irish have the stronger hand having filled five of the first six places.

The ante-post favourite has long been Willie Mullins’ Limini and the talk of her being her connections’ best chance of the week have only further increased the expectation around her. The Mullins team have obviously had a great week and it would be no surprise to see her go close but she is short enough at 4/5 considering she has only had two starts over hurdles. In fairness she looks pretty versatile in terms of ground and is definitely the pick of the Irish battalion.

Gordon Elliott saddles Whistle Dixie who was third behind Limini when last seen in January but she showed good form on a sounder surface last Spring and it could be that she improves for the sounder surface here. She clearly has plenty to find with the market leader but the drop back to two miles and better ground could bring her closer to that rival, especially in receipt of 5lb.

On this side of the Irish Sea, Nicky Henderson has long had a reputation for mares and he saddles three runners here, with two of them Robins Reef and Chocca Wocca both owned by the race’s sponsor. The latter was a smart bumper performer last year and overcame a lengthy absence to win at the first time of asking over hurdles at Market Rasen in February. The ground was probably slow enough for her that day and you would expect her to benefit physically from that run.

Henderson also saddles Bloody Mary who was a multiple winner in her native France and overcame testing conditions to win at Taunton on her British debut. She is not the biggest but she looks to have a good engine and she really knuckled down last time to put the race to bed. She had form on good ground in bumpers in France and despite also conceding 5lb to all but two of her rivals, she looks the pick of the Henderson trio.

However, it could be Brian Ellison’s Smart Talk who gives the favourite most to think about having accounted for Limini’s stablemate Morning Run at Doncaster last time. She has now won four of her last five starts over hurdles and her run on quick ground at Doncaster last time was very impressive. On official ratings at least she is top of the tree and more importantly she has had plenty of racing so she should be battle-hardened. Having won over further than two miles I imagine she will be ridden prominently to make use of her stamina and it may be a case of whether the others can catch her.

Overall, the vibes suggest that Limini is likely to follow in the footsteps of her stablemates Vroum Vroum Mag and Annie Power and find her way to the Winners’ Enclosure but Smart Talk and Bloody Mary can ensure she doesn’t get everything her own way.

Shortlist

Limini

Smart Talk

Bloody Mary

[Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate - Thursday 17th]

It seems that in the world of trends, something odd is happening here. There are three horses that match nine of the ten key trends – Fingal Bay, Tenor Nivernais and Quincy Des Pictons. Now the first two are perfectly plausible winners of the race, especially Philip Hobbs’ chaser, but the final table topper, the twelve-year-old Quincy Des Pictons is currently 100/1 in some places. He’s shown close to nothing at all since his last win (over Renard and Deputy Dan) on heavy ground at Chepstow in December 2014 and was last seen being beaten twelve lengths over hurdles by the now 117-rated Tanit River. Clearly, this is not an improving horse, he’s not a horse with any good recent form on a sound surface and this one looks to be a clear anomaly, or it would be one of the Festival’s biggest ever shocks.

Now that’s out of the way, even though many trainers target horses at races like these, it’s interesting to see that it really is the under-the-radar contenders that make the biggest splash, with only one of the last 15 winners of the race being in the top four in the market or any smaller than 12/1. This is a black mark against the ante post gamble of the race Johns Spirit, Stilletto, Fingal Bay and Art Mauresque, even though the last three mentioned can all be found at 12/1 and above at the time of writing.

Horses trained by the Pipe family or Venetia Williams have combined to win six of the last ten runnings of this race, an unbelievable record which has to be taken notice of. David Pipe has three in the race this year: Kings Palace, Ballynagour and La Vaticane, while Williams has Dare Me, Niceonefrankie, Tenor Nivernais and Tango De Juilley declared – plenty of bullets to keep their fine record going.

All of the last seven winners of the race have carries less than 11-00 and ten horses fall foul of carrying more here, however, there is still the impact of the claiming jockey to consider and seeing that Venetia Williams’ Niceonefrankie has Charlie Deutsch taking 5lb off the horse’s back is an interesting nugget indeed. He was allotted 11-00 anyway, so he wasn’t far off satisfying the trend and even with the possibly unfair black mark in this box, he’s only two ticks behind the top three.

He’s a horse that is ridden prominently, which is another positive, considering nine of the last ten winners have all been prominently raced at the very least. It’s always difficult to come from the back in competitive, often messy encounters like these and it’s no surprise that prominently positioned horses do well. I’d be wary of horses with hold-up styles like Johns Spirit and Ballynagour, even though the latter wasn’t close to the front when winning this two years ago.

Only one of the last eleven winners won on their last start, so the likes of La Vaticane, Dare Me and Stilletto take a hit here, while there hasn’t been an Irish-trained winner since 1982, so Buckers Bridge, Ballycasey, Empire Of Dirt and Baily Green would have to shake off the weight of the record books if they were going to win here.

To be perfectly honest, this is a race that has been as close to a ‘lottery’ as you can get at the Festival; it’s hugely unpredictable and could be an excellent opportunity to look for something at a big price with the ability to get involved from a decent-looking mark.

Fingal Bay runs off a mark of 141 here and with Richard Johnson on board cannot be overlooked. He tops the trends table and his form could be argued as some of the very best in the race, with a win in last year’s Pertemps Final and, after chasing a strong pace in soft ground, a good fourth place in this year’s Hennessy standing out. He looks an extremely solid proposition and could still be a decent price at 12/1. The only worries are if the trip is a little short for him at 2m5f and if (probably when) he gets latched on to in the market. The poor record of fancied horses is unsettling, but he looks set to be popular on the day and should run a good race.

Paul Nicholls’ Stilletto draws the eye off a relatively low weight and could be well-handicapped, while Art Mauresque is a contender with a decent chance, especially now the ground is coming right for him – the quicker the better. He also has some good track form, including a very good sixth in the Paddy Power in November, so he certainly doesn’t have a lot to find off a mark of 144.

Venetia Williams’ four in the race are all interesting in their own way, with Tango De Juilley looking to have plenty of ability and is now being ridden by talented claimer Jack Kennedy, Tenor Nivernais carrying plenty of weight but having Aidan Coleman on board to try and continue his excellent C&D form and Dare Me bouncing back to form in a big way at Ascot last time out.

However it is her ten-year-old Niceonefrankie that catches my attention most. He’s often saved for better ground and in placing a good second in unsuitable soft-ground at Warwick – to a very good horse in Taquin De Seuil too – after almost three months off; he proved his wellbeing and could be a great bet at around 20/1 given he’s not been harshly campaigned with  this race in mind. Fingal Bay and Art Mauresque could be the ones to chase him home, while Stilletto was targeted at this race as soon as he won at Leicester last time out, if not before, and holds claims.

Shortlist

Niceonefrankie

Fingal Bay

Art Mauresque

[Pertemps Network Final - Thursday 17th]

As should be expected in a race like the Pertemps, the more experienced contender tends to be more able to cope with the hustle and bustle of a premier three mile handicap hurdle. 7 of the last 10 winners were at least eight-years-old which is a good sign for the quintet in this year’s filed which includes If In Doubt.

To take this a step further, the only five-year-old to win the Pertemps Final was back in 1988 which is a worrying sign for Box Office in this year’s renewal.
Last time out winners are normally the way to go when looking at Graded races but they have also had a decent record in the Pertemps. 7 of the last 15 winners had a ‘1’ next to their names which boosts the chances of If In Doubt, Cup Final and Missed Approach.

The Pertemps Final has yielded two Grand National winners in the last 10 years and we have seen a distinct increase in the number of chasers taking part in this particular contest. Their record is altogether rather eye-catching with 6 of the last 10 winners having ran over fences. Nearly half of the field have contested a chase at some point in their careers including If In Doubt, Flintham and Join The Clan.

The class of horse contesting the Pertemps is increasing year on year and each of the last 5 winners won off a mark of at least 138. In the future, horses rated 138 may struggle to get in altogether but the likes of Leave At Dawn (137) and Saddlers Encore (135) have something to prove here.

9 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 2m7f prior to lining up here. Proven stamina has been key in a race like the Pertemps which is not run at the run of the mill pace in your usual three mile handicap hurdles. Ten of this year’s field fall down on this stat including the well fancied Our Kaempfer.

The Irish have a pretty average record in this race compared to others at The Festival having only supplied 2 winners in the last 15 renewals. In truth, the Irish haven’t really targeted this race over the years but it is still a concerning stat nevertheless for the likes of Rathpatrick, Leave At Dawn and Mall Dini.

The record of Irish-trained runners is pretty troubling but nowhere near as alarming as the fact that no French-bred horse has won this race in the last 15 renewals from 64 that have tried. This is a surprising statistic  given that French-bred horses have been well and truly on the up recently and it Is not like they have been no-hopers as Sam Winner, Chartreux, Miko De Beauchene and Robin Du Bois have all been beaten when sent off favourite. This puts a black mark against the quartet of French-breds in this years’ line-up, Arpege d’Alene, Box Office, Dubawi Island and Un Ace.

We all know how much JP McManus thrives on landing handicaps at the big Festivals and he turns up here with a strong sextet of runners. If In Doubt is the clear trends pick and would have to be afforded a great chance on the back of his ready win at Wincanton on Boxing Day. He was well fancied in this two years ago and was heavily backed on the day but could only manage to finish ninth despite looking likely to challenge approaching the last. He has progressed since then though, albeit over fences and looked a potentially classy sort when landing the Sky Bet Chase last year. He was even far from disgraced when fifth in last year’s RSA. He disappointed on his seasonal debut in the Hennessy Gold Cup and reverted back to the smaller obstacles on the back of a sticky jumping display. He clearly stays very well and having the Champion Jockey-elect Richard Johnson in the saddle can only aid his chances.

Another of the McManus contingent to perform well on the trends is Cup Final for the Nicky Henderson team. He is very lightly-raced and arrives here with bundles of potential. He is bred for greatness, being out of Asian Maze, and has always been well thought of by connections despite having a few niggling injury problems over the years. The Pertemps has been the goal for him from the outset this season and he needed to win his qualifier to stand a realistic chance of getting in the field, which he did in nice style in ground that didn’t suit. Going into that Musselburgh race, there were question marks about whether he would stay but he soon dispelled those worries as he kept on well on the run-in for the win. He does seem to have been overlooked by Barry Geraghty which is a tad puzzling but has strong credentials nonetheless.

Flintham is a strong statistical pick but does have a 9lb rise to overcome for his narrow win at Warwick in January. He progressed rapidly over the sticks last campaign, landing a trio of handicaps, and was pitched into some pretty fierce company to round off his season in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. Being a full-brother to the yard’s Carruthers and a half-brother to last year’s Gold Cup winner Coneygree, it didn’t come as a shock that he was tried over fences but his jumping left a fair bit to be desired and he soon returned to the smaller obstacles. His win last time out wasn’t particularly impressive but it was run in pretty attritional conditions and he showed a good attitude to stick his head in front. This is his highest ever handicap mark however and although he looks to be going the right way, Charlie Deutsch’s 5lb claim could well be invaluable.

In a strange turn of events, Leave At Dawn has perhaps the most to do to overcome the trends. His only real plus is that he isn’t French-bred which is a pretty damning verdict of you looked solely at the statistics. However, if you look at his overall profile, he certainly has to be high on the shortlist. He impressed when landing a handicap at the Open Meeting in November and qualified for this with a canny run in at Leopardstown over Christmas, where he finished a never nearer fifth. On the back of that run, he was immediately touted as a Pertemps contender and will certainly prefer the better ground here. He has the assessor to thank for getting in to the race as he would have been way out of the reckoning if the British handicappers hadn’t raised him 5lb from his Irish mark. As the pick of Barry Geraghty, he has to enter the reckoning.

Shortlist

If In Doubt

Cup Final

Leave At Dawn

Flintham

[Kim Muir Challenge Cup - Thursday 17th]

The overlying trend in this contest is that we don’t have to look for an in-form runner. Only 1 of the last 9 winners had won a chase, other than a beginners or ungraded novice chase, earlier in the season. The Package had been pulled up on his previous run and well beaten in sixth prior to winning this last season so don’t put off if your fancy has been out-of-form. The likes of Cause Of Causes and Indian Castle have been particularly below-par but are just two that tend to save their best for this meeting.

In the last seven years, all but one of the placed horses has been ridden by a non-claiming amateur. It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that the more experienced amateurs hold the edge but they are really over-performing here. It is nearly almost the case the top trainers will try and obtain the best amateur going so it is best to stay focussed on those who have shed their allowance.  Jamie Codd is undoubtedly top of the pile with 3 winners in the last 7 years which is a big plus for Cause Of Causes.

As previously mentioned, the top jockeys have been the way to go and the market has followed suit. Although this has been seen as a bit of a free-for-all in the past, 6 of the last 7 winners were found in the top six in the market so that is where the main focus should lie. This puts a tick in the box of the current top six Cause Of Causes, Doctor Harper, The Giant Bolster, Sambremont and Upswing.

Each of the last 16 winners had run over 3m on their latest start. The Kim Muir has experienced a few changes in conditions in recent times and this has made the already tough contest even more stamina-oriented. With proven staying-power a solid statistic, this has to raise question marks about Doctor Harper who, although successful at 3m over the sticks, he has not as yet been further than 2m1f over fences.

With this being a contest for amateurs, although they are usually fairly proficient, jumping fences is still the name of the game and any bit of help the horse can give their pilot is a certain bonus. Horses that have fallen or unseated earlier in the campaign are 0-61 since 2005 which is a worrying statistic for Knock House, Silvergrove, The Giant Bolster, Sambremont, Ericht and Splash Of Ginge.

Phenomenally, given that Irish amateur jockeys have fared very well, those trained on the Emerald Isle have a fairly dismal record with Spring Heeled the only Irish winner since 1983. However, they have been improving of late but it is still not a great sign for the three in this years’ line-up, Cause Of Causes, Sambremont and The Job Is Right.

The horse that performs best at the trends here is Indian Castle for the Ian Williams yard who are in fine form on the back of their debut Festival success with Ballyalton on Tuesday. The now eight-year-old was heavily backed in this race two years ago and looked on course for a place until blundering at the last and eventually finishing seventh. He then suffered a spell in the doldrums until running a blinder in the Ultima Handicap Chase last year in fourth. He comes into this race in very little form again but the handicapper has finally relented and he now finds himself on a much reduced mark of 134. In the last couple of years he has been trained with the Festival in mind and this term looks no different so he could be value at a big price to at least run into a place.

Another that has been out of form recently is Cause Of Causes. He was a gutsy winner of the National Hunt Chase last year having finished runner-up to Spring Heeled in this contest two years ago. He has been given some fairly tough assignments, including the Grand National, since his victory here last time and his latest run in a Grade 2 chase over two miles was purely to get him on the right track for another crack at Festival glory. Gordon Elliott has once again employed the services of leading amateur Jamie Codd for the ride which can only be a good thing.

JP McManus has a pair of leading chances and has snapped arguably the two strongest riders available. Derek O’Connor, who struck aboard Minella Rocco on Tuesday, has been jocked up on Upswing who, unlike the previous pair, has had a very good campaign so far. He was well beaten in an early season beginners’ event on his chasing debut but evidently benefitted from that pipe opener and opened his account at the next time of asking in nice. Unequivocally, his best run to date came in the Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting where he chased Sausalito Sunrise home to finish second by 1 ¼ lengths. That form is rock solid with the winner now rated 19lb higher than on that day.  He can be forgiven a below-par effort in the Welsh National latest in conditions that can only be described as dire and has been given a well-earned break on the back of that run. He does tend to hit a flat spot but evidently stays very well and will be in the mix.

David Pipe has landed 2 of the last 5 runnings of this race and he has a quartet of runners here as he looks to improve on that already decent record. Doctor Harper is regarded as his best chance for a third win in six years but he has a couple further down the bookies’ boards that are of great interest. Top Wood arrives here in fine fettle following a wide margin win at Ludlow last time out and despite carrying a 5lb penalty here, he is still officially 6lb well in. In truth, that race wasn’t particularly the strongest but he couldn’t have won any easier and the fact he showed a marked return to form is a big plus.

The other one to note from Nicholashayne is Alternatif who has proven to be slightly frustrating since coming over from France. However, he hasn’t finished out of the frame under National Hunt rules in that time and can be relied upon to run his race. He was a solid second on his chasing debut over an inadequate trip before running with great credit in third in a hot handicap at the Open Meeting. He cheekily ran out a length winner at Fontwell next time and that form has turned out to be pretty smart with the runner-up Pete The Feat proving highly competitive in handicap chases and the third Ziga Boy going on to land the Sky Bet Chase in January. He didn’t disgrace himself last time out either, only folding late on when running out of puff in very heavy ground and should be able to give a good account of himself once more off the same mark.

Shortlist

Cause Of Causes

Indian Castle

Upswing

Top Wood

Alternatif

[Ryanair Chase - Thursday 17th]

With all but one of the last eight winners of this contest having won at Cheltenham before, it seems that course form is something that often gives horses an advantage. If we apply that to this year’s field then it splits it exactly in half with eight on either side of the divide. Many of you will remember Vautour’s scintillating display in the JLT last year, twelve months after Taquin Du Seuil landed the same prize. Dynaste won this race in 2014, whilst his fellow grey Al Ferof is no stranger to Prestbury Park having won both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Paddy Power Gold Cup here. The list is completed by Champagne West, Captain Conan, Village Vic and Annacotty.

As far as races go for being a guide for this race, you could do worse than look at Kempton’s King George as five of the last eight winners took in that particular engagement. This is largely because horses try the 3m trip at Kempton and drop back for this or because this race is often a little less competitive than the Gold Cup. As we know, in this season’s renewal Vautour was collared right on the line by Cue Card, with Al Ferof back in third place. Valseur Lido also lined up at Kempton and looked booked for fifth place when coming down at the final fence.

Despite being largely considered to be the lesser younger brother of the Gold Cup, the official ratings of the last eight winners suggest that this is well worth its place as a Grade 1. All but one of the last eight winners was rated 161 or higher and when looking at our field for this year, there are five such horses who fit the bill. Vautour tops the list with a whopping 176, some 11lb clear of Al Ferof and Road To Riches, whilst Vibrato Valtat and Valseur Lido both sit on a mark of 161.

The more that you look at the trends, the more difficult it is to get away from the favourite Vautour who heads here following connections’ decision to abort plans to run in the Gold Cup. As well as the trends we have discussed, two more which work in his favour are that five of the last eight winners made all or most of the running and only two of the last eight had won last time out. As I have mentioned he is well clear on official ratings and if he turns up in the same form as twelve months ago in the JLT, then he could be very hard to beat.

There will however be plenty queuing up to have a go at him including Al Ferof who may have finished a fair way behind him at Kempton but has never really convinced me as a true three-miler. This intermediate trip looks perfect for him and he seems to have enjoyed something of a renaissance since joining the Dan Skelton team. It is not unfair to say he has plenty to find with the favourite and whilst he looks to have solid claims on the trends, it is hard to see him getting involved here.
One of those towards the head of the market Road To Riches must also come into consideration for all that this trip is probably shorter than ideal for him. A gallant third in the Gold Cup at last year’s Festival he won the Clonmel Oil Chase in November before chasing home Carlingford Lough in the Irish Gold Cup last time. Like the favourite, he has to overcome the poor record of Irish runners in the race but class often prevails here and it is hard to see him being too far away.

One at a big price who looks to have plenty going in his favour is former winner of the race Dynaste who has largely been campaigned over three miles on soft ground in the last couple of years. His run last time was a better one over this intermediate trip but more crucially I think the quicker ground that he is likely to encounter will bring about massive improvement from him. The Pipe yard have already found themselves amongst the winners this week and whilst it is hard to see past Vautour, I could see him hitting the frame at sizeable odds.

Shortlist

Vautour

Road To Riches

Dynaste