[Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd]

Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 3:40 Martinstown Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle Next to impossible with plotted-up horses aplenty I’m sure about to leave their form miles behind in this race confined to conditional riders and many small yards have won this Final in the 11 years since it was first run. Therefore I suggest if you do play then keep stakes to a minimum. Sea Beat has been a talking horse for a season and a half now but his row of duck eggs keeps extending. Only rated 119, I am sure Arthur Moore thinks he is better than that and maybe this better ground will be more to his liking having finished third to Windsor Park on his only Flat start. Cassells Rock might be another who will appreciate this better ground for Tony Martin having won twice when summer jumping last year. Oscar Knight has course-winning form when successful here in February having also run another couple of good races at Punchestown and he has not had a chance to race on better ground yet. He is also owned by J P McManus who sponsors this race series for which this is the Final and he is also represented by the Aidan O’Brien-trained Egyptian Warrior who is another with a sound-surface profile so can leave his recent efforts behind. Landau has a sexier profile than most being Gordon Elliott-trained and having won two of his last four starts including when sent over to Exeter so he is likely to be the fore in the betting. Nickname Exit looks the number one of Willie Mullins’ pair ahead of Tarabiyn and won his only race over hurdles so he too is one for the sexy-profile punters. However, he was third behind Russian Bill in a bumper in January and now has to give Noel Meade’s charge 4lb here. Russian Bill would also be a leading fancy if we overlook his last run where he was too bad to be true in a Grade 3 novice hurdle having won his previous two starts and, in Ger Fox, he arguably has the most talented young rider in the race on his side. Short List Russian Bill Oscar Knight Cassells Rock Nickname Exit Sea Beat Conclusion Probably the most horrible race of the meeting to try and work out and nothing really to add to the above but Landau and Egyptian Warrior would be the two of the septet I have highlighted to leave out. RUSSIAN BILL would be a token selection ahead of NICKNAME EXIT as I think he’s pretty good if you can forgive him his last run and I like his jockey in this boys’ race. The other three of OSCAR KNIGHT, CASSELLS ROCK and SEA BEAT are included more in hope that they will improve for the better ground than they have been racing on of late. 4:20 Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle Restricted to horses with no more than one win over timber of any age, Davy Russell has won the last three renewals and has been booked for On Fiddlers Green who was not disgraced when beaten 15l into third by Shaneshill last time out at 100/1 after winning a maiden hurdle and he is only 8lb off the top-rated contender which is the far more experienced Sadler’s Risk (140) who was sixth in the Triumph Hurdle three years ago for Philip Hobbs having been a good horse on the Flat but never kicked on. Now with Henry de Bromhead, after being well beaten in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase, Sadler’s Risk was sent back hurdling and won here on New Year’s Eve before finishing second of three last time out with Aklan a disappointing tailed-off last of three. He looks there to be shot at by an improving horse though. Second top rated just 2lb adrift is Identity Thief and he looks the one to beat. He got found out in the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle but the 1-2 have both won Grade 1s since then so no shock that he couldn’t compete with distinction there and his chance is better judged on his second to Sempre Medici in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse earlier in the month. Of the others rated 130+, Total Recall and Prince Of Scars both represent Sandra Hughes. Total Recall has the advantage of being a course-and-distance winner when taking a maiden hurdle here in February since when he has been outclassed in two Grade 2s including finishing one place behind On Fiddlers Green last time out and Prince Of Scars was just 3l adrift back in fifth. Shantou Flyer has not run for 78 days since running poorly in a Grade 3 at Clonmel in testing ground but his only win came on Good ground so this better surface could be key and he has place claims on his second to Free Expression in a Grade 2 at Navan in November. This is a drop in class for Gerdago who has been struggling against the likes of Dedigout and Felix Yonger recently and his 3½l third to Dedigout in the Boyne Hurdle gives him a shot. Aidan O’Brien’s Marchese Marconi completes the 130+ contenders and has the Flat class to be a factor having finished second to Windsor Park at Galway in October but he has not matched that over timber. The rest don’t look good enough. Short List Identity Thief On Fiddlers Green Gerdago Conclusion The Grade 2 over this trip at Fairyhouse earlier this month should have a bearing featuring ON FIDDLERS GREEN, Total Recall and Prince Of Scars who finished third, fourth and fifth behind Shaneshill but IDENTITY THIEF looks the one to beat on his second to the smart Sempre Medici at the same meeting over 2m and if he can reproduce that form over this extra 4f, he can outclass his rivals. It may have been a messy Boyne Hurdle but GERDAGO ran well to finish third not beaten far and this is a drop in class from that contest. Although eighth of nine in another Grade 2 last time, he was only beaten 9l so he has to be considered for each-way purposes. 4:55 Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle First run in 2008 and upgraded to a Grade 1 race three years ago having previously been a standard novice hurdle and then a Grade 3 and Grade 2, therefore this staying novice hurdle equivalent of Cheltenham’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle over 3m is still finding its feet to an extent so trends are thin on the ground. In its seven runnings to date this contest has provided surprise winners with four striking at a double-figure price, though The Midnight Club and Beat That justified favouritism, the latter beating Don Poli into second 12 months ago in the race’s classiest running to date. Those two winners were also the only two winners that had previously won over 3m under Rules. The Albert Bartlett third, No More Heroes, has the best 3m form in the race and he may well have won at Cheltenham had Bryan Cooper not gone for a run up the inside rail and was quickly chopped off. In testing ground it took him an age to get into top gear again and he was only beaten 1½l by Martello Tower. He is a gorgeous stamp of a horse that looks every inch a potential top notcher when he is sent chasing so the big question is whether 47 days is enough recovery time after a very hard race? Willie Mullins has won two runnings with The Midnight Club and Marasonnien but was out of luck with Don Poli finishing second last season and also in 2013 when his favourite and second-favourite, Ballycasey and Inish Island, finished third and second respectively behind Morning Assembly. He did saddle the 1-2-3 the previous season however and has decided to raise the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up, Shaneshill, up to three miles. He cruised to victory over 2m4f at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting in a manner that suggested another half-mile for the last season’s Grade 1 Bumper winner on this card shouldn’t be a problem and most top class bumper horses tend to be stayers. Mullins also runs the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle winner, Killultagh Vic, but he won that handicap off just 135 so even a 7lb raise for that win leaves him 11lb to find with Shaneshill. He does shape like a real stayer however and is open to more improvement for the extra half-mile. Mullins also runs Roi Des Francs who was third behind Killultagh Vic at Cheltenham giving 4lb and beaten 4½l so there is little between them on that evidence. He was pulled up at Aintree however behind Thistlecrack in the Grade 1 2m novice hurdle so has a wellbeing question to answer. The Colin Tizzard-trained Thistlecrack will be attempting to emulate Beat That last year who won this prize after winning the Sefton at Aintree. A surprise 25/1 winner at Liverpool but the step up a mile brought around tremendous improvement, Alpha Des Obeaux would have given him a race but for a last-flight fall but he still beat the remainder by 13l. A second British challenger is the Harry Fry-trained Fletchers Flyer who was set to contest the Albert Bartlett but withdrawn on the morning so he is fresh having not run since narrowly beaten by Definitely Red in a Grade 2 at Haydock where he looked to have the race in the bag for most of the home straight giving the runner-up 3lb. Rebecca Curtis completes the British invasion sending over Binge Drinker who has won four of his six starts over hurdles but he was found out both times he went into pattern-race company. Arctic Skipper, Fine Article, High Stratos and Sub Lieutenant complete the field. Arctic Skipper looks too inexperienced having his third hurdles start (I like race-hardened horses for top-class staying novice hurdles) coming off a maiden hurdle win on his second start, High Stratos likewise, Fine Article is exposed and one paced and was beaten into second by Roi Des Francs at Clonmel but Sub Lieutenant has a squeak if he stays this longer trip having finished fourth to Nichols Canyon over 2m4f at Aintree and beating the Albert Bartlett runner-up, Milsean, by 5½l on his previous start, though the runner-up that day did improve significantly for a real slog at Cheltenham. Short List No More Heroes Shaneshill Fletchers Flyer Conclusion I think that NO MORE HEROES is the best long-term prospect in the field and the one to beat if he has recovered from a hard race in the Albert Bartlett even if SHANESHILL is officially rated the better horse by 6lb on his Supreme Novices’ Hurdle run. That figure was put up over a mile shorter trip than he faces today however but he should stay, it’s just whether he is quite as good over 3m as he is over shorter. The pair met in a Grade 2 over 2m4f at Navan in December and No More Heroes came out on top and I think he is even more likely to do over another half a mile. Thistlecrack has a Grade 1 win to his name but I prefer FLETCHERS FLYER of the British raiders who missed the Albert Bartlett which could prove to be a blessing in disguise given what an attritional race it was. 5:30 Bibby Financial Services Ireland Punchestown Gold Cup The Cheltenham Gold Cup has to be the starting point as seven of the last 11 winners contested jumping’s blue riband at the Festival. Although Coneygree has been put away for the season, we still have Djakadam and Road To Riches representing jumping’s blue riband, who had such a good battle for second taking their chance in addition to On His Own (5th), Boston Bob (10th) and The Giant Bolster (pulled up). Djakadam ran a blinder to be second given only one six-year-old had won the Gold Cup since 1963 which was always my sticking point with him but no horse travelled with more purpose behind Coneygree for the meat of the race. The concern is how much did that hard race take out of a young horse who was having just his sixth chase start and Willie Mullins has alluded to that in the build up to deciding whether to declare him or not. The more battle-hardened Road To Riches finished on his tail and might be better equipped to recover in time of the pair chasing a third Grade 1 win of the season. Last year’s winner was also a successful favourite and it has been a very good race indeed for the market leader with nine of the last 13 proving successful. It will be interesting to see which of this pair or Don Cossack is sent off the market leader. Three years ago China Rock was the only Gold Cup representative in the field (though he could finish only eighth at Cheltenham beaten 48l by Synchronised) and won here a 20/1 so it is not all about the Gold Cup principals. On His Own ran well to finish fifth and has since won again beating Roi Du Mee in a Grade 3. He did bomb out in this race last year however after he was second in the Gold Cup and I would be disappointed from a race fan’s perspective if he can win at the age of 11, especially as there has been no winner of this race over the age of ten. His owner-mate Boston Bob won last season’s renewal but he has not been in the same form this season. I have to conclude that his wins in last season’s Melling Chase (beat Rolling Aces) and this race (beat First Lieutenant) were both below-par renewals. The fact that Paul Townend rides On His Own in preference to Boston Bob says plenty. The Giant Bolster didn’t fire in the Gold Cup being another who was thrown out of his comfort zone by Coneygree placing too much pressure on his sticky jumping. He reserves his best for the New Course at Cheltenham so I don’t see him bouncing back to his best here. Given that this race takes place over 2m4f, it is a little surprising that the John Durkan Memorial Chase has been the best Irish guide having featured as many as seven of the last 16 winners stretching back to Imperial Call in 1999. Then again, it is also run at Punchestown and course form has counted for plenty in this race down the years as ten of the last 11 Irish-trained winners had won at Punchestown before which is something Djakadam and On His Own have yet to achieve. This season’s John Durkan witnessed Don Cossack beat Boston Bob and Lord Windermere. The other key Irish race is the Lexus Chase which has thrown up four of the last 12 winners and saw Road To Riches beat On His Own with Boston Bob back in fourth. The Betfred Bowl winner doesn’t often run here but has a good record when it does. This year’s winner, Silviniaco Conti, has been put away until the autumn however but the narrow runner-up, Ballynagour, takes his chance having only been beaten a head in a first-time hood. The most impressive performance at Aintree was put up by Don Cossack who sauntered to victory in the Melling Chase running to a mark of 171 (can be argued to be much higher) which makes him the top-rated horse in the race. The worry is are Gigginstown going to the well too often with him and too soon after a big performance? He won very easily but beating Cue Card 26l into second has got to take something out of a horse hasn’t it? Flemenstar is declared but it looks like a contingency plan if something goes wrong early in the 2m chase on Day 1 and he doesn’t stay anyway. Short List Road To Riches On His Own Ballynagour Conclusion Firstly, in-running bettors take note as five of the last nine winners were leading from as far as four out. Extend that to six who were in front three out. A cracking race made even more interesting by the declaration of Don Cossack so soon after his Aintree demolition job of Cue Card but I would have thought that Cooper would ride Don Cossack leaving Paul Carberry to take the mount on the Meade-trained ROAD TO RICHES having won the Grade 1 on him at Down Royal in November but the fact Cooper is on Road To Riches strikes me as significant and I think he might be better equipped than Djakadam at this stage of their careers to run to his Gold Cup form after they both endured a hard race. Having stated that I would disappointed if ON HIS OWN won, and I would be, that doesn’t mean he can’t win with question marks hanging over whether some of his rivals might underperform after hard races last time out, and I think he might be the best each-way or place-only play. Yes, he blew out in this race last year after an exceptionally hard run in the Gold Cup when beaten a nose after his jockey received a seven-day ban for overuse of the whip so I can forgive him that and he does jump out to his right so this course should suit better than Cheltenham. He is also in great heart having finished fifth in the Gold Cup and then easily beating the in-form Roi Du Mee. The fact that Townend rides rather than last year’s winner Boston Bob also encourages me that he will run a big race. BALLYNAGOUR put up a career-best effort when upped to this trip when just beaten by Silviniaco Conti in the Bowl which has been a good guide to this race and what price would the dual King George winner be here? Ballynagour was also a close third in the 2m Grade 1 chase at this meeting last year after a placed effort at Aintree and is fresher than most so I can see him outrun his odds. 6.05 Attheraces Champion INH Flat Race The most prestigious of the six bumpers scheduled at the Punchestown Festival and, unlike the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, it is restricted to amateur riders plus seven-year-olds are allowed to take part, though none do this year. As the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham is the only other Grade 1 race of its type in Britain or Ireland, it stands to reason that it is likely to be the most significant guide which is the case by a huge margin. Since this Grade 1 event at Punchestown was first run in 1992, 12 winners contested the Cheltenham version of which 11 finished in the first six at Prestbury Park including last year when Shaneshill reversed places with Silver Concorde when they filled the first two places again. In doing so Shaneshill became the fourth runner-up at Cheltenham to gain ample consolation here following Tiananmen Square, Aeries Girl and Arctic Camper so Modus, a 1½l runner-up to Moon Racer last month, is trying to become the fifth. Like the winner he missed the break which may have proven to be a blessing in disguise before storming through the field in a first-time hood on his seasonal debut having not run since finishing unplaced in the same Festival Bumper the previous year. If he can reproduce that form he should have no problem holding off Supasundae (6th), Montana Belle (8th), Bay Of Freedom (9th), Bellshill (10th) – since finished second at Aintree, Au Quart de Tour (13th), Livelovelaugh (15th) and Bordini (pulled up). The question marks are whether he was flattered by coming through off a strong pace, will the hood work again and will he bounce as that was a big run following a year’s layoff? Of the 12 winners that ran in the Champion Bumper only Hidden Universe (19th) in 2010 had finished out of the first six so Supasundae still qualifies as interesting on that count having run a good race on his first start for Henry de Bromhead. The other quartet to run at Cheltenham were all trained by Willie Mullins who collectively disappointed. In fact the Irish disappointed as a whole as it was a 1-2-3-4 for the Brits. Mullins also runs the unbeaten-in-three Pylonthepressure who looked like being one of his biggest hopes in the Festival Bumper (though he was not the intended ride of Patrick Mullins so not their number-one hope) but was withdrawn on the morning. Given how his other bumper horses ran at Cheltenham though, there has to be a question mark whether he would also have been up to it. Patrick Mullins rides Bellshill today with Jane Mangan coming in for the ride on Pylonthepressure. With a jaw-dropping eight Weatherbys Champion Bumpers winners, Willie Mullins is clearly the number-one yard for top-class bumper horses and he has won this race on five occasions and saddled four more horses to finish second. Modus, Altior and Wade Harper represent the British and it is very strange how British-trained horses have a far better record in this Grade 1 race than the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival down the years and the David Pipe-trained The Liquidator was another winner two years ago. Since this race became a Grade 1 in 1995, the Brits started to take a keener in interest and won four times in the next 11 years courtesy of Arctic Camper, King’s Road, Royal Rosa and Refinement when they were seriously outnumbered which was certainly surprising to me given that they could hardly bag a Champion Bumper within the same time frame when being responsible for the majority of the field. In addition to their five winners, British-trained horses have supplied five runners-up. All in all, as they don’t travel over in great numbers, the British have a good record here. Modus’ form claims are there for all to see and Wade Harper from the David Dennis stable arrives here off the back of a win at Market Rasen having finished second at Haydock. He is owned by Favourites Racing who likes runners in Ireland so I have to think he is more of a social runner rather than as serious contender. Altior is sent over by Nicky Henderson having bypassed Cheltenham for which he was an intended runner. His close-up third to Barters Hill in a Listed Bumper looks a lot better now given the winner then added the competitive Grade 2 Bumper at the Grand National Meeting. Five-year-olds supplied the 1-2-3-4-5-6 two years ago and six of the first seven positions last year. Restricted to horses aged no older than seven since 2007, as with the Champion Bumper there was a time when I was keen to take on four-year-olds but, after struggling terribly in this race (as they did at Cheltenham) it has been different of late (as it also has for Cheltenham) with Dermot Weld’s Hidden Universe winning in 2010 aged four and the same yard went close again the following season with a four-year-old when Waaheb was sent off 15/8 favourite in receipt of 8lb and was only beaten a short-head with another four-year-old, Jenari, back in third. Hidden Universe became only the second of his age ever to have won this contest two years ago with Royal Rosa being the only other four-year-old to have prevailed here. Two four-year-olds take the plunge and both have good claims as Disko was impressive here 70 days on his only start for Noel Meade (has won three of the last ten renewals in addition to Tiananmen Square who won the inaugural running in 1992) and Charbel is 2-2 for Thomas Mullins winning at Leopardstown and Limerick. However, of the last 16 winners all but three had raced no more than three times under Rules. The only once-raced winner was Sweeps Hill who was the chief beneficiary of Dunguib’s disqualification a few months later. Short List Modus Supasundae Disko Altior Conclusion The home team usually get spanked by the Irish in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper but on the six occasions when the Brits were successful at Cheltenham, they also provided the runner-up and even a 1-2-3-4-5-6 in 2003. This year they had the 1-2-3-4 so they look to hold the aces in this division this season, especially as none of Willie Mullins’ quintet, four of which run again here, could not finish in the first nine at Cheltenham. The runner-up, MODUS, is the form horse and the Brits do well in this race from few runners so it is hard to knock him off a short list. Given the British form is stacking up better than the Irish this season I also want to include ALTIOR for Nicky Henderson especially as his Newbury form was franked by the hard-as-nails Barters Hill at Aintree. DISKO would be unlike Noel Meade’s other winners of this race being a once-raced four-year-old but there was so much to like about his only start when he won well here by 15l that the Gigginstown-owned, Nina Carberry-ridden contender can be filed in the ‘could be anything’ category. I also like the fact they wanted to miss Cheltenham with him to be aimed at this prize instead. Charbel is another unbeaten four-year-old to be respected but as top-six finishers in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper have won this race 11 times, then I have to include the only other qualifier from Cheltenham, SUPASUNDAE. He looked potentially special when beating the Champion Bumper fourth, Yanworth, at Ascot in December looking a real physical beast when trained by Andrew Balding and was subsequently bought by Alan Potts and put away until Cheltenham and pulled too hard for his own good at the Festival so his sixth place finish can be marked up. 6:40 Guinness Handicap Chase This 100,000 euros contest is the big handicap chase of the meeting and don’t be concerned if your fancy failed to finish in the first three last time out as 12 of the last 15 winners failed to occupy a top-three slot on their previous outing yet 12 of the last 18 winners started between second and fourth-favourite which suggests that this is a handicap for plotted-up horses. Following novices in handicap at the big spring Festivals is never a bad thing and they have an eye-catching record in the most valuable handicap chase of the meeting winning seven of the last 16 runnings, Klepht being the latest two years ago at 12/1 who is trying to win it again off a 1lb lower mark and David Mullins taking off another 5lb and he showed he might be coming back to form with a fair effort in the Plate at Cheltenham beaten 13l. A shame that there are no novice representatives this year but Gold Bullet is having just his sixth chase start. He is a horse I like and didn’t stay when thirteenth in the Kim Muir but looked an improving individual when beating Baily Green last time at Clonmel when dropped down to this trip and, although he officially not a novice so doesn’t meet the excellent novice stats, effectively he is given his lack of chase starts. You Must Know Me held every chance when he fell two out in that same contest so I have to also like his chance of running well if I like Gold Bullet. Toon River is chasing a third win in four starts and also respected. Three fairly recent winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival in the Grand Annual, Plate and Arkle Trophy. Philip Hobbs’ Bouchasson followed up his shock 50/1 win in Ayr’s Future Champions Novices’ chase by winning here 15 years ago but that was the last time a British-trained horse proved successful. That said, the Brits have only found one too good in two of the last six seasons. Warren Greatrex sends over Baby Mix who was not disgraced in the Red Rum Chase on his first run for 16 months at Aintree finishing sixth of 17. Nicky Henderson has declared Ericht but he has been disappointing in four starts since he was third to Johns Spirit at Cheltenham in October. Willie Mullins has trained five of the last 11 winners so his top weight Turban clearly requires the closest scrutiny. A faller when in fifth (but well back) in the Topham last time out (in which Art Of Logistics was a well beaten sixth) after finishing tenth in the Grand Annual, his chance is best judged on his defeat of Rubi Light at Clonmel in February. Rubi Light, who would prefer it softer, only got as far as the third in the Grand National but won his previous two races so Turban was beating an in-form horse. However, 12 of the last 16 winners carried under 11st and, in the last ten seasons alone, 33 of the 40 top-four places have gone the way of horses carrying less than 11st so it was some performance for Scotsirish to win off 11st 10lb four years ago. The weight stats also put me off Bright New Dawn, Rathlin and Foil Dubh. Paul Nolan won this race in successive years with Torduff Boy (2002 and 2003) and his Kymandjen only found one too good two years later. He ran King Vuvuzela last year and he ran okay to finish fifth and he is back again off a 3lb lower mark. The winner from 12 months ago is also back and Orpheus Valley is off a similar handicap rating again. In fact, he is 1lb lower and he showed his first piece of worthwhile form since that win last time out when third to Rubi Light. It would appear he is being trained for a repeat. Also returning is last year’s third, Pass The Hat, but he is 12lb higher this year. Short List Gold Bullet You Must Know Me King Vuvuzela Klepht Conclusion I think GOLD BULLET is a horse to follow and I take him to follow up his win at Clonmel. It might have been close between him and YOU MUST KNOW ME had the latter not fallen two out so a sneaky little reverse exacta may also not go amiss here, just in case that form line is the best on offer. I backed KING VUVUZELA in this race last year mainly off the back of Paul Nolan’s record in the race and taking the view that this had been the plan and he ran well enough to finish fifth so I can’t put you off chancing him each-way again at what is likely to be a working man’s price. Of the last two winners of this race who return again, I prefer KLEPHT to Orpheus Valley. Klept was my main fancy when he won this race in 2013 and he looks to have been trained for a repeat having shown more spark at Cheltenham last time. 7.15 Old House, Kill INH Flat Race This is the fifth running of this bumper for horses not to have won under Rules aged five, six or seven. Unlike the Day 1 bumpers, there is more form to dissect as all but four of the 17 runners have run including three who have won a point-to-point; Articulum, who won 38 days ago for Terence O’Brien, Raise A Tail for Jessica Harrington (who bred Articulum) who was scoring on his second try between the flags 134 days ago and, most interestingly given how well David Pipe does at this meeting from few runners, Champers On Ice who won by 12l last month and the stable have turned to Jamie Codd which always catches the eye. The best piece of form under Rules looks to be that of the Dermot Weld-trained First Figaro who was second to Space Cadet in one of the four bumpers at Leopardstown’s Christmas Meeting. That particular bumper may not have been as strong as usual this year but Weld tends to run his best young horses at that meeting so the fact that he made his debut there is significant to my mind. Also runners-up on their last start are Rosetub, but she is still a maiden after eight starts, Edwulf, who is sent over the Irish Sea by Ben Pauling and given he has a top bumper horse in Barters Hill to measure him against, that makes him interesting on his debut under Rules having been second in a point-to-point in December, and Arkwrisht for Willie and Patrick Mullins for Gigginstown but he was a beaten favourite on both his starts. Exxaro is also worth a mention for Henry de Bromhead having twice finished second in bumpers including to the useful Sub Lieutenant before finishing fourth over hurdles and now returning to bumpers. Short List First Figaro Champers On Ice Edwulf Conclusion Hard to be confident about any of the five non-Grade 1 bumper races at this meeting but I like it when Dermot Weld introduces horses at the Leopardstown Christmas Meeting as they are usually well regarded to FIRST FIGARO would be my tentative selection to improve for that initial experience. David Pipe won the Grade 1 bumper at this meeting two years ago and sends over CHAMPERS ON ICE for his debut under Rules having won a point-to-point and as the Brits seem to have the best bumper horses around so far EDWULF also makes it on the shortlist for the very much going-places Ben Pauling stable who know what a good bumper looks like as we have seen with Barters Hill.

[Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd]

Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 3:40 Kidare Hunt Club FR Sean Bean Memorial Chase A very low key start as always with this cross country chase for poor hunter chasers and point-to-pointers so I will keep this brief. Enda Bolger has won five of the last nine runnings so inevitably much of the focus will be on the J P McManus-owned Wish Ye Didn’t under Nina Carberry who also rode the winner of this race on the Bolger-trained winners in 2010 and 2014. He is the youngest horse in the race at the age of six and last year’s winner, Be Positive, was also the youngest horse 12 months ago for the same owner/trainer/jockey combination. Wish Ye Didn’t was just five when he contested this race last year and unseated Trevor Ryan at the 18th and has not pulled up any trees since but he was a fair fourth beaten 15l in the Risk Of Thunder Chase over course and distance in November. Enniskillen also ran last year and was a well beaten ninth having finished sixth the previous year. Peter Maher of Big Shu fame trains Enniskillen (Big Shi won this race in 2012) plus Serious Times and Oscar Day and the latter appeals most of his trio having won a point-to-point at the end of January. Boxer Georg is the class act in terms of back catalogue having finished second to Baby Run in the Aintree Fox Hunters’ four years ago and second to Big Shu in this race in 2012 before the winner then improved to be top dog in this sphere of racing. However, he was trained by Willie Mullins then and in his prime and now he is aged 13 and moved to Seamus O’Farrell having also been with Shark Hanlon and was a 100/1 outsider and tailed off when he fell in this year’s Aintree Fox Hunters’. He did win a hunter chase for Hanlon in November though which is more than any of his rivals have managed. Jim Dreaper runs Katie’s Oscar who was second in a point-to-point nine days ago so unlike most of these at least we know he is in good heart though one win in 30 point-to-points says it all. Blackwood River was also second between the flags last time out having won his previous point-to-point so he is a plausible winner especially as this is juts his sixth start so there is more to come. Elembridge King is only 2-21 in point-to-points but has run some decent races though he likes to have two ways of running. Short List Wish Ye Didn’t Blackwood River Oscar Day Conclusion Even by this race’s usual standards this is a poor running and you need to see a doctor if you get involved too heavily but if Enda Bolger, who has won this race five times in ther last nine years, is relying on just Wish Ye Didn’t then that probably means something and he should be a better horse than the one who exited in this race as a five-year-old last year. He has probably been trained for this race since to give J P McManus the perfect start to the meeting and a reproduction of his Risk Of Thunder Chase fourth should be good enough. Blackwood River has the best profile of the others being a lightly-race and in-form point-to-pointer and Oscar Day may prove to be the best of the Peter Maher runners, a stable that should be noted in this sphere and he might be a bit of each-way value. Next….and sharpish. 4:20 Herald Champion Novice Hurdle This novice hurdle over 2m possesses a terrific Roll of Honour since it was upgraded to a Grade 1 contest 17 years ago including five Champion Hurdle winners in Dawn Run, Brave Inca, Hurricane Fly, Jezki and last year’s winner, Faugheen, in addition to a dual Champion Chaser in Moscow Flyer and it is long odds-on that the impressive Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner Douvan is going to join them. The first of a number of odds-on favourites this week that Willie Mullins intends to run, surely they aren’t all going to win but unless I have a view one or more might underperform, I find it is best to look at the without-favourites markets in such instances. Five opponents take him on but it’s as good as 20/1 bar two with Blair Perrone, Rich Coast, Cardinal Palace and Velocity Boy having a mountain to climb on pure form, leaving the Supreme third, Sizing John, as the only real threat. Twelve of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race and two of the three that did not had placed at Grade 1 level so that aforementioned quartet have it all to do against two Grade 1 winners in Douvan and Sizing John. All eyes will be on Douvan attempting to improve the poor run of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner as only two of the eight Supreme winners to take their chance have won, they being Back In Front and Brave Inca. The six who failed were French Ballerina, Sausalito Bay, Like-a-Butterfly, Ebaziyan, Go Native and Champagne Fever and two of those were Mullins-trained. I wouldn’t suggest anyone back at horse at around 2/9 but especially not in a race where six of the eight Supreme winners to line up have been beaten. So, that’s the angle if you think that Sizing John can reverse places and hope that the winning effort of Douvan took more out of him than appeared so he won’t give his best. Sizing John was beaten 7l by Douvan at Cheltenham compared to 12l when they met at Gowran Park in November and also won a Grade 1 in between so he is improving and I can see him cut into the deficit again. If you like long odds-on shots and can’t see beyond Douvan following up his Cheltenham victory it is worth considering Willie Mullins’ record and it took a long time for him to notch up his first victory in this race when Hurricane Fly won in 2009 but then he followed up the next season’s supplying the 1-2. Unrepresented in 2011, Mullins was responsible for three of the five runners two years ago but they filled the last three places and his Champagne Fever couldn’t recover in time from his Supreme exertions last year in time. No such problem for Faugheen however, who was even more impressive here than when he won the Neptune. The Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Novice Hurdle, a Grade 2 run at Fairyhouse over Easter, has been contested by three of the last seven winners, the latest being Alderwood three years ago. This season’s running was won by Sempre Medici beating Identity Thief and the Noel Meade-trained Rich Coast who was previously only 18th in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle. Meade has a very good record with his Easter Fairyhouse Meeting runners in this race as Cardinal Hill, Scottish Memories and Jered all won here after winning or finishing second and he has won this race on five occasions in total and supplied two runners-up. Short List Sizing John Douvan Conclusion If DOUVAN has fully recovered from his Supreme Novices’ Hurdle then he wins at long odds-on with comfort. However, if he is feeling the effects of that win like six other Supreme winners who were beaten here (and both of Mullins’ Supreme winners to run in this race were comfortably beaten here plus Vautour was no way near as impressive winning at this meeting last year over 2m4f after pulverising the Supreme field) then SIZING JOHN has 7l to find having finished closer to him than when they met at Gowran so he too is improving and the yard had a Grade 1 winner with Special Tiara on Saturday. On that basis, 4/1 each-way about Sizing John looks about the only ‘in’ I can see in the race if you must have a bet with little downside if he finishes second as Douvan is too short in the outright market, Sizing John is too short in the without Douvan market, and the obvious forecast won’t pay much either. A trends case can be made for Rich Coast to outrun his odds given Noel Meade’s record in this race and especially with horses who contested the Grade 2 at Fairyhouse over Easter but if you are looking for a bet in a without Douvan market, he still has 11lb to find on official figures with Sizing John. Looking at the Supreme field in the paddock beforehand, they looked a very good bunch to me and the runner-up, Shaneshill, has already bolted up since at Fairyhouse so one of that pair will need to have an off day for him to sneak second. 4:55 Killashee Handicap Hurdle The handicaps at this meeting are incredibly difficult and 11 of the last 12 winners of this 18-runner, Grade B, 2m handicap hurdle have all started at a double-figure price. The exception was the Nicky Henderson-trained Cool Macavity who won at 9/1 last year and he returns off a 7lb higher mark for his 2l victory. His eighth place in the Scottish Champion Hurdle which followed an absence of four months could easily have been used to set him up for a repeat. Upgraded from a Class C event two years ago, nine of the last 11 winners carried no more than 10st 7lb. Some Article and Rupert Lamb appeal most of those with the first-named a former winner of the bumper on this card three years ago and having won two of his last three starts and the latter-named having dropped down the handicap for Willie Mullins but he has long threatened to win a good race. Fethard Player hit the front a little early in the equivalent race at the Grand National Meeting taking it up three out and only headed with 100 yards to race by Astre De la Coeur. If he is held onto for longer he can reverse placings. Just under 2l back in third was The Game Changer who was fourth in this race 12 months ago and a big punt for the County Hurdle where he could only finish ninth. The Game Changer is clearly an obvious contender so it is interesting to see Bryan Cooper ride the Tony Martin-trained The Plan Man for Gigginstown instead and he shaped well in fourth behind Some Article at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting on his first run since October including making an error two out. Is Tony Martin the man with a plan? One place ahead of him was Sizing Codelco who ran a little free. Cliff House is a novice who has won two of his four starts over hurdles and quickened clear to win in heavy ground last time and seems to have a preference for a testing surface. Sticking with spring Festival form and although Waxies Dargle couldn’t get in a blow in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle, he ran well when fifth in this race last season off 130 and is just 1lb higher here. He was only a 15/2 chance for the Boylesports Hurdle at Leopardstown in January (Ireland’s most prestigious handicap hurdle) when he fell four out. Lucky Bridle is a second contender for Willie Mullins and contested the same two races having finished midfield in the Boylesports before making headway when falling two out in the County. He did subsequently disappoint behind Some Article at Fairyhouse at Easter however. Macnicholson was down the field in the Martin Pipe where maybe 2m4f stretched him but he had been very consistent until then so makes some each-way appeal for Jessica Harrington who does well with her 2m hurdlers. Short List The Plan Man Fethard Player Waxies Dargle Macnicholson Rupert Lamb Conclusion THE PLAN MAN might be well named as his good fourth behind Some Article after six months off had the whiff of a prep for race for this and Bryan Cooper rides him rather than The Game Changer who had a solid form chance and ran well in this race last year. With a less aggressive ride I fancy FETHARD PLAYER would have won the conditional and amateur riders’ handicap hurdle that followed the Grand National but he was caught half-way up the run-in by Astre De La Coeur at 33/1 beaten a neck. I shortlisted him that day and keep the faith. WAXIES DARGLE also ran a good race in this contest 12 months and can be the scene at the business again and makes each-way appeal as does the consistent MACNICHOLSON now that he reverts back to his favoured trip after probably failing to stay further at Cheltenham. RUPERT LAMB is most interesting of the lower weights having lost his confidence over fences and is lightly-raced for his age. Being Willie Mullins-trained and running off a 22lb lower mark over hurdles here than his best chase rating, he is worth a second look. 5:30 Boylesports Champion Chase The best Irish two-mile chasers generally bypass Aintree for this Grade 1 contest (there is no 2m Grade 1 at Aintree) though some try their luck over further in the Melling Chase over 2m4f like many of the Champion Chase chief protagonists down the years. Given the historical lack of depth in the 2m chase division, which sees the same horses contesting the same races, it is not at all surprising that the four most prestigious two-mile chases, the Champion Chase, Tingle Creek, Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase and the Clarence House, have featured in the campaigns of plenty of contenders for this Grade 1 prize with the Queen Mother Champion Chase proving to be top dog as you might expect. Sizing Europe became the tenth winner in the last 12 years that contested the sport’s ultimate 2m chasing prize when successful last season, a race represented this year by just Sizing Europe (6th) again and Savello (7th). I was pretty keen on Sizing Europe for this race last year off the back of his fourth place in the Champion Chase but am struggling to find the same enthusiasm for him this time at the age of 13. I can only conclude that Savello ran in the Champion Chase as Gigginstown wanted a runner as there were much better options for him at the meeting and he was unsurprisingly outclassed and he has since finished a tailed-off last of three behind Twinlight. Savello was third in this race last year beaten 5¾l by Sizing Europe after winning the Grand Annual but he doesn’t enter the race in any way near the same form. The leading Irish guide featuring four of the last ten winners is the Paddy Power Dial-a-Bet Chase at Leopardstown where Twinlight beat Hidden Cyclone into second. I felt the winner benefitted from not having anything to do with the mad gallop up front so Hidden Cyclone boxed on well in the circumstances taking it up down the back straight and being 3l clear two out. Since then Hidden Cyclone won the Tied Cottage Chase well but disappointed in the Ryanair. Tried in first-time blinkers here, that’s an angle I like for the big races. The stat against him is that he is a 10-year-old and that three of the four winners since 1992 aged older than nine were ten-year-olds that won the previous season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase (Moscow Flyer, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe) and their class was enough to see them through. Then again, Sizing Europe also took the honours aged 12 last season. Twinlight would prefer softer ground like when he won at Leopardstown and when beating Mallowney by 7l earlier in the month but the runner-up didn’t run his race. Mallowney had seriously impressed winning his previous two races and would have been a leading contender for the Champion Chase had been entered, but the intention was always to aim him at this prize having won so easily in a handicap at this meeting last year. If you can forgive him that poor run where he didn’t have the assistance of Davy Russell who gets such a great tune out of him then he has a great chance and there is an argument to made that he has the best 2m chase form in Ireland this season. Champagne Fever was my Champion Chase horse as I was convinced that he would be at his best forcing it over 2m so it was very frustrating that he was withdrawn on the day giving been bitten by a stablemate in transit. He has to bounce back from a mediocre effort in the Melling Chase and his supporters will be hoping that run can be put down to him being reined back rather than allowed to bowl along. He does run some bad races now and again however and I reckon he is best fresh too so and this is just 18 days later. British-trained raiders have a decent record since this became a Grade 1 winning it with Celibate, Get Real, Flagship Uberalles, Twist Magic, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre in addition to Big Matt winning the 1998 running when it was Grade 1 handicap and Viking Flagship took the 1993 edition as a novice. However, the Haldon Gold Cup third, Oscar Hill, is bottom rated by some margin rated just 144. Felix Yonger, Flemenstar and Baily Green complete the field. Felix Yonger is chasing a four-timer and is the stable third string on jockey bookings. His overall form suggests he is a good Grade 2 horse but that a class act will have his measure. Flemenstar shaped well for a long way on his first run in 16 months before fading into sixth beaten 20l by Felix Yonger and it will be some training effort to get him back to be in the first three, let alone win. I always felt he was a little over-rated anyway but he still has a big fan club and reputation so I imagine he will be underpriced. Baily Green isn’t the same horse this season and his best isn’t good enough regardless. Short List Mallowney Hidden Cyclone Felix Yonger Conclusion Mallowney and Hidden Cyclone would be my two against the field. This has been the primary aim for MALLOWNEY since he breezed home at this meeting last year and he would be near enough favourite if he arrived here off the back of his easy Grade 2 win at Naas that followed a demolition job in the Dan Moore Handicap. His latest run has to be forgiven but I am prepared to do that as he was missing the key ingredient of Davy Russell who is back in the saddle here, and especially at around 15/2 which looks a knocking each-way price about such a supreme traveller. HIDDEN CYCLONE fell in this race last year when he had the tag of being a slightly unlucky horse but he has got his head in front this season and is a big player if not ridden as aggressively as at Leopardstown at Christmas when Twinlight beat him and on his impressive Tied Cottage Chase success. I am not sure he needs blinkers as he looks to put it all in and more but their first-time introduction makes him more intriguing. If Champagne Fever pours it on from half-way in front and gets into a jumping rhythm then he will take some catching. However, he has too many poor days and as I think he’s best fresh, running again just 18 days after disappointing under hold-up tactics worries me. FELIX YONGER is my idea of the best of Mullins’ trio even if he is the least fancied. His overall profile is one of a horse not quite good enough but there are question marks about every runner. 6:05 Goffs Land Rover INH Flat Race The first of six bumpers at the meeting, this is restricted to horses bought at Goffs in June last year and with 100,000 euros up for grabs, it should produce a good horse or two. Over half the field are having their debut so this is a race to play carefully in. Willie Mullins has won four of the last nine runnings including the last two and has declared St Stephens Green who makes his debut like two of his four winners. All but one of the 23 runners are 4yos, the other being Zagelle for Henry de Bromhead. There are three previous winners in the field; Petit Mouchoir and Ball D’Arc, who made winning debuts in point-to-points, and Bon Enfant who Warren Greatex sends over having won his only start in a Wincanton bumper 27 days ago where he kept on gamely after which the trainer reported his jockey had trouble pulling him up. Petit Mouchoir represents Gordon Elliott who made most to win his only point-to-point and they have now turned to a hood with him whereas Ball D’Ac only beat two rivals in his point-to-point win and was then stuffed on his bumper debut beaten 27l. Of those beaten on their only bumper start, the most interesting are Our Three Sons who was just touched off on Fontwell for Jamie Snowden, Art Of Synergy who was third of 20 at Navan last month for Sandra Hughes, and Aidan O’Brien runs Tesseract who was a never-nearer sixth at Fairyhouse three weeks ago in the McManus silks. Even more guesswork involved in the debutants but Jessica and Katie Harrington won this race in 2009 and they combine with the filly, Twinkletoes, Jonjo O’Neill sends over Set In My Ways for J P McManus, Thomas Mullins won this with Some Article in 2012 and he runs Phar Island, and Noel Meade and Nina Carberry are represented by Red Giant. Short List St Stephens Green Bon Enfant Petit Mouchoir Twinkletoes Conclusion Given Willie Mullins’ good record in this race, and not with short-priced horses either with winners at 14/1, 12/1 and 7/1, then ST STEPHENS GREEN has to be considered. Warren Greatrex has a fine strike rate in bumpers in Britain and he was talking up his hopes for BON ENFANT recently so he looks the pick of the three-strong raiding party having shown a good attitude to win at Wincanton. Gordon Elliott’s PETIT MOUCHOIR would be my pick of those with previous experience of the Irish who is interesting in a first-time hood and, while we are guessing to a very large extent, I will chance TWINKLETOES with a fillies’ allowance for a trainer-jockey partnership that have won this race before. 6:40 Growise Champion Novice Chase Upgraded from a Grade 2 2m5f event to a Grade 1 3m1f race in 2007, this is a different race now from a decade ago so, effectively, there are just eight runnings to work off so strong patterns are thin on the ground at present. This Punchestown Festival equivalent of the RSA Chase was first run in 1992 and won by Milford Quay who was the first of five British-trained winners, the latest of which being the Charlie Mann-trained Air Force One seven years ago. Rebecca Curtis sends over Irish Cavalier who I fancied for the Mildmay Novices’ Chase but he fell at the fifth fence. Hard to think that he would have beaten Saphir Du Rheu though given the ease of his victory. I liked his chance at Aintree as I felt that his stamina won him the novice handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival despite making a mistake three and being forced to switch round rivals in the home straight, after which I commented that I thought he was an ideal type for next season’s Hennessy. Sadly, we didn’t get the chance to find out at Aintree but his connections want to give him another shot at 3m1f here. Paul Townend rode him at Cheltenham and Aintree but he rides Wounded Warrior so Noel Fehily comes in for the ride for the first time. Sir Des Champs became the first successful favourite three years ago since the race took on a new look when outclassing his field at odds of 2/7 so he was giving Gigginstown successive wins in the race following on from Quito De La Roque 12 months earlier and their maroon-and-white silks only found one too good two years ago when the NH Chase runner-up, Tofino Bay, was the bridesmaid again behind Mount Benbulben. This year Gigginstown supply three of the five runners headed by Don Poli who had Wounded Warrior 7½l back n third when he won the RSA Chase and they are also represented by Valseur Lido. A big run at Cheltenham Festival can take too much out of a novice, it certainly did for the RSA Chase winner, Cooldine, who had the look of a horse that had not come close to recovering from those Festival exertions when beaten here and the last two defeated favourites, Back In Focus and Morning Assembly, were also below par after a win and third at the Festival. As such, this race has so far had an end-of-season feel to it which has resulted in four relatively-surprising winners at 7/1, 9/1, 16/1 and 14/1 in smallish-field events in the eight years since it became a Grade 1 event so that is your best angle if you don’t like the projected odds of 1/3 about Don Poli. If the RSA winner is beaten here it wouldn’t be the first time a very good horse has simply had enough for the season at this meeting, it also certainly wouldn’t be the first time this season that a Gigginstown second or third string has upset their main hope and, with just four rivals, maybe it could get tactical, in which case this out-and-out stayer becomes vulnerable having hit flat spots in his two Cheltenham wins before storming clear each time. The chase course here suits front runners much better. I think that of all the Mullins hot pots this week, Don Poli might be the most vulnerable. Wounded Warrior would have won the NH Chase in my view had Gigginstown stuck to Plan A before playing silly beggars in their running plans, saying one thing and doing another. Very easy to say after the race of course but I would think that his third place in the RSA was a superior effort to Cause Of Causes beating Broadway Buffalo in the four-miler. Last year’s winner, Carlingford Lough, finished sixth in the RSA Chase before striking here as third-favourite in a field of five. I certainly made a mental note not to listen closely to anything their racing manager Eddie O’Leary says in the future regards their running plans (another one to add to the ever-expanding list!) as he wasn’t the only horse of theirs that ended up in another race from when interviewed just a few days beforehand. As much as I liked Valseur Lido up to Cheltenham, I was a little disappointed with him at Prestbury Park when third in the JLT and he looked to have had enough for the season when running no race at Fairyhouse on his next start so I am surprised to see him here. I can only conclude Gigginstown want as many runners as possible in the Grade 1 races (or they found a good reason for a very poor run) so I prefer Wounded Warrior to the Drinmore winner. In addition to Wounded Warrior, Noel Meade also runs Apache Stronghold who moves up in trip. He just got the better of Valseur Lido for the second time when finishing second in a different parish behind Vautour in the JLT before he fell at the ninth fence in the Grade 1 over 2m4f over Easter at Fairyhouse. Meade hopes that he can develop into a Gold Cup horse (he certainly looked the part in the paddock before the JLT as no horse impressed me more all week in the preliminaries) in which case he needs to be staying well here and just four rivals, two of which are dour stayers in Don Poli and Wounded Warrior, can help him do just that unless one of this pair makes it a real stamina test. Three of the last six winners ran at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting, two finished unplaced in that Ryanair Chase (formerly Powers Gold Cup) and Rare Bob finished fourth in the Irish National. Short List Apache Stronghold Wounded Warrior Conclusion In terms of a short list of most likely winners then of course Don Poli has to be top having won two Grade 1s in terrific style in his last two starts but he could vulnerable at this late stage of the season in a race that has seen The Form Book been turned upside down more than once so this particular short list is more in terms of potential bets. APACHE STRONGHOLD only has 3l to find to Don Poli on Topaz Chase form over around this trip at Christmas and rates decent value at around 6/1, especially if this gets tactical as he has more speed than Don Poli and Wounded Warrior and more class than Irish Cavalier and he also has the edge over Valseur Lido on their last two meetings and that rival also now his wellbeing to prove after a bad run at Fairyhouse. Paul Carberry was gutted he didn’t win the Topaz such is the regard in which he is held. WOUNDED WARRIOR could be a little under-rated despite an easy Grade 2 win and a good third in the RSA last time out as he is not the type to catch the imagination. If Don Poli is not at his best and this develops into a stamina test, he would best placed to take advantage. 7:15 JLT INH Flat Race A little bit more form to go on in this bumper restricted to four-year-olds who are maidens under Rules as exactly half of the 22 declarations have run and it was won last season by Forgotten Rules (had Sizing John back in fourth) who I think will take all the beating in the Ascot Gold Cup on June 18th. Prior to him it was the Albert Bartlett winner, Very Wood, who won this race and 12 months before him it was Saturday’s Bet365 Gold Cup second-favourite when trained at the time by Don Cantillon, Grand Jesture, who refused to race but many bookmakers refunded stakes. No Willie Mullins contenders, surprisingly. The one winner in the line up is Crazyheart but as that came in a point-to-point three months ago he is eligible to run for Paul Nolan but he was all out to win in a small field. Of those beaten under Rules, Man Of Conquest and Couer Joyeux look the pick, the first-named finishing third for Dessie McDonogh here in February behind the impressive Disko who is likely to run in the Grade 1 bumper here later in the week, and the latter-named finishing second in a Leopardstown bumper in February for Sandra Hughes behind Charbel who has won again since at Limerick for Willie Mullins. Of the 11 unraced contenders the four that could catch the attention of punters most are Startinfromscratch for Jonjo O’Neill and J P McManus, Noel Meade and Nina Carberry team up with Showem Silver, Gordon Elliott unleashes Petite Gold and the Harringtons team up again with Bright Tomorrow. Short List Man Of Conquest Coueur Joyeux Showem Silver Startinfromscratch Conclusion Noel Meade and Nina Carberry combined to win this race in 2006 so SHOWEM SILVER makes it onto the short list. Nina has extra incentive to get him into the frame as she also owns him and can sell him for a few quid. Jonjo O’Neill has an okay record with his bumper horses at this meeting so STARTINFROMSCRATCH might be useful to be sent over. If pressed I would prefer the proven form of COUEUR JOYEUX whose second on his debut has been franked and MAN OF CONQUEST may have bumped into a very smart one on his only start.

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday April 18th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday April 18th AYR SCOTTY BRAND HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE – 3.15PM DUKE OF NAVAN was a useful hurdler (rated 148) at his peak and has made a fair start over fences. He has run four times over fences and impressed on his chase debut before running a fair race at Cheltenham until falling at the last. He has bounced back to finish second on his next two starts and looks well handicapped for this. His yard is also in good form and they have a good record at Ayr having won with 9 of their last 23 runners there. CORAL SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP STEEPLE – 3.45PM This looks a very competitive race and several have chances, but one I am keen on is AMIGO. This race tends to go to horses that have run well last time out, are at the bottom of the weights and run up with the pace and he fits the bill. He was a fair horse in France and has shown glimpses of his ability over here, including a good second at Chepstow last year, where he finished well ahead of Hawkes Point who boosted the form when winning at Warwick. Last time out he was just denied by a well handicapped Carruthers at Newbury off a mark of 132 and he runs off 136 here which is fair, so he has every chance of running well at a big price. The other one I like is SEGO SUCCESS who is an improving novice that ran reasonably well in the four miler at Cheltenham. Connections rate him as a decent prospect and with a weight of just 10-5, he has been given a chance. He looks all about stamina and is capable of more improvement than most, so he is one that I want to keep on my side.

[Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap Hurdle > Thursday April 9th @ 5:15pm]

Re: Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap Hurdle > Thursday April 9th @ 5:15pm 5:15 Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap Hurdle Six of the last nine runnings have gone the way of a novice so, in common with the 2m4f handicap at this fixture, this race has proved a happy hunting ground for first-season hurdlers. The novices this year are The Tourard Man and Marinero who both ran at the Cheltenham Festival and 14 winners of the 27 renewals ran at that meeting. This is effectively the Aintree equivalent race of the Pertemps Network Final (minus the 20 qualifying races) so it is no surprise to see that handicap at Cheltenham have a bearing with six winners here having run in that Final since 1988. It is worth noting that although the Pertemps Final is the more valuable of the two races, that contest only has Listed status whereas this race was raised to Grade 3 level in 2010 so it should theoretically be the stronger of the two handicaps. This season’s Pertemps 1-2-3 of Call The Cops (Cape Tribulation completed the double), Unique De Cotte and The Tourard Man cross swords again and J P McManus also runs Regal Encore (7th) and Join The Clan (8th). McCoy has switched this time from Regal Encore to Unique De Cotte. Of that quintet, I like the Alan King-trained The Tourard Man most who is a progressive novice that could improve again. King also runs Ulzanas Raid who has a chance if he likes Aintree as much as Cheltenham. The fancied Dawalan was back in sixteenth in the Pertemps and is a five-year-old as is Katgary, an impressive winner at Newbury last time out and well to the fore in the betting for this race, but the only winners of that age were Escartefigue and Time For Rupert and both went on to make top-notch chasers. Jonjo O’Neill is best known for his stayers and he has won this race four times in the last 13 years so it is surprising that he has ran just one horse in the last four years. This year he runs Join The Clan and the hat-trick chasing Master Malt from the bottom of the handicap who is also owned by J P McManus. The Irish have won this handicap just twice and not since Ross Moff in 2002. He was trained by Tony Martin who runs Marinero who finished in midfield in the Coral Cup. Fourth in that Coral Cup beaten only a length was Taglietelle who travelled notably well and made his ground easily in a race where the prominent racers dominated. Whether he stays 3m though has to be taken on trust. Apache Jack for the Irish Grand National-winning stable of Sandra Hughes returns to hurdling (he had little physical scope for chasing) in a first-time visor and last season’s Albert Bartlett third is also likely to appreciate this ground so I have time for him. Short List The Tourard Man Taglietelle Apache Jack Master Malt Conclusion Being a novice and a horse who ran well in the Pertemps Final, THE TOURARD MAN has plenty going for him and would top my list and I like him most of those who ran at the Festival just ahead of TAGLIETELLE who moves up in trip and is a big player if he stays. Both were placed at Cheltenham. Pulled up at Cheltenham was APACHE JACK but that was in the RSA Chase and this is more his game as he isn’t the biggest for chasing and a strongly-run 3m miles over hurdles can bring the best out of this brother to Black Jack Ketchum and the first-time visor makes him more interesting. Given Jonjo O’Neill’s touch with stayers and his affinity for this race, MASTER MALT is also shortlist material chasing a hat-trick off joint bottom weight.

[The Aintree Red Rum Handicap Steeple Chase > Thursday April 9th @ 4:40pm]

Re: The Aintree Red Rum Handicap Steeple Chase > Thursday April 9th @ 4:40pm 4:40 Betfred Red Rum Handicap Chase If down the years you had looked to a novice, preferably aged eight or younger, who came here on the back of a solid run at the Cheltenham Festival and was towards the lower-middle sector of the handicap, then you will have enjoyed a whale of a time of a time of it. Novices have won seven of the last 13 runnings so Royal Regatta, Ted Veale, Dresden, Enjoy Responsibly and Pearls Legend are respected (though Ted Veale and Pearls Legend are second-season chasers). Seven of the last 16 winners had previously taken part in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. No shock of course that the Grand Annual should be the best guide by a considerable margin given that the Red Rum Chase and Grand Annual are the two most prestigious two-mile handicap chases run all season and take place within a month of each other, but to the extent of winning almost half of the last 16 runnings? Yes, the Grand Annual is well represented in the Red Rum but they are still over-performing in a notable way. Representatives this year are Next Sensation (1st), Ned Buntline (4th), Ted Veale (7th), Astracad (11th), Bellenos (13th) and Dresden (fell). This flat track could suit Next Sensation even better than Cheltenham being a free-going front runner. It had proven hard going for the winner to double up until fairly recently but successes for Fota Island and Oh Crick in the last 11 years have changed that. Their recent record reads: 31PF192 but he is off an 8lb higher mark and this season’s Festival was favouring front runners. Bellenos is tried in a first-time blinkers today but if I was to take just one from the Grand Annual it would be the novice, Dresden, who fell four out when disputing a close third. Ned Buntline didn’t get the clearest of passages but also made too made niggly mistakes and that worries me here. Last season’s renewal can also be a good guide and has featured three of the last eight winners and last year’s winner, Parsnip Pete, is back as is the third, Claret Cloak (and fourth, Astracad). The record of the defending title holder over the last decade reads: 27P9RF6 and he is off a 10lb higher mark than 12 months ago. He does love Aintree though having beaten Surf And Turf into second here in October and both look like they have been trained for this race. Surf And Turf has not run since and is interesting having easily won his previous race at Aintree. Claret Cloak has also been off since the autumn and has Sean Bowen taking off a valuable 5lb Short List Surf And Turf Dresden Arnaud Claret Cloak Conclusion Being a novice who was running well in the Grand Annual, then DRESDEN will appeal to trends followers so he makes it onto the short list. SURF AND TURF was second to Parsnip Pete here in October and has not run since having won his only other start at Aintree by an easy 9l and he could be the each-way value of the race for a small yard. The top weight CLARET CLOAK has been threatening to win a quality 2m handicap chase for a while and was third in this race last season after filling the same position in the Grand Annual. He arrives here very fresh and has the boy wonder in Sean Bowen taking 5lb off his back so he also makes each-way appeal. I like it when Henry De Bromhead sends over horses to Britain, especially novices, and Enjoy Responsibly could go under the radar with names like Ned Buntline and Ted Veale travelling over from Ireland. The Irish are chasing a seventh win in this race since it was first run in 1977. However, I have had ARNAUD in mind for this race for a long time who likes a fast 2m and he returned to better form last time out and will appreciate this faster ground than he has been used to this season. He used to hare off in front like in last year’s race where he finished ninth but has been held up for his last few starts.

[The Crabbie’s Fox Hunters’ Steeple Chase > Thursday April 9th @ 4:05pm]

Re: The Crabbie’s Fox Hunters’ Steeple Chase > Thursday April 9th @ 4:05pm 4:05 Crabbie’s Fox Hunters’ Chase This is the best renewal of this race I’ve seen in a long time featuring last year’s impressive winner, Warne, the runaway Cheltenham Foxhunters’ winner, On The Fringe, the former Topham third, Last Time D’Albain, being the pick of the Irish and Pacha Du Polder, Twirling Magnet, Big Fella Thanks and Current Event looking the best of the Brits. Prior to Tartan Snow’s 100/1 victory two years ago, this had been an excellent race for punters with 18 of the previous 20 winners sent off in the first four in the betting. The Foxhunters’ at the Cheltenham Festival is the most important race of the season for hunter chasers closely followed by this Crabbie’s-sponsored event but there is a marked difference in the type of horse required for each race so it is not altogether unsurprising that few winners at Cheltenham have attempted to double up in this prestigious race which is what the Enda Bolger-trained On The Fringe is attempting to achieve. Only the same trainer’s Elegant Lord in 1999 (for the same owner) and last year’s winner, Warne, have inscribed their names on the Roll of Honour in the last 31 years for the Irish which is a very poor return for a nation steeped in history in the point-to-point and hunter chase field. I think they will win it again though and it wouldn’t surprise me if they had the 1-2-3. Four of the last 13 winners ran in the Foxhunters’ at Cheltenham including two of the last four, Baby Run and Cloudy Lane, both of which had previous experience of the Grand National fences. On The Fringe will be attempting to emulate Double Silk who in 1993 became the last horse to complete the double. Only three winners at Cheltenham have attempted to double up in the subsequent 21 years with two unseating their riders and the other finishing sixth. The previous horse to complete the Cheltenham-Aintree double was Grittar in 1981 who went on to win the Grand National the following season. Prior to him it was Spartan Missile in 1979 who went on to finish second to Aldaniti in the Grand National two years later. Since those days, Eliogarty, Cavalero, Elegant Lord and Baby Run have won both races but not in the same season. On The Fringe was the widest-margin winner at the Festival and looked like he had just joined in turning for home and this is considered to be more his trip so he has a huge shout. The rain came for him in time at Cheltenham as he does like a cut in the ground and the less it dries out, the better his chance. Last year’s easy winner Warne has been trained 100% for the race and bypassed Cheltenham like last year and he won a point-to-point the day after the Gold Cup as his final prep race. Feeling rather bold after Warne blew his rivals away in last year’s Aintree Fox Hunters’ under Aintree specialist Sam Waley-Cohen, I tweeted after that he would win it for the next two years as well but I wasn’t expecting the opposition to be as hot this year and his trainer has commented that he hasn’t had absolutely the perfect preparation. The third big Irish contender is Last Time D’Albain who has also been trained for this race having finished third in the Topham two years ago. Last seen beating the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ second and fourth in the last two years, Carsonstown Boy, all looks set for a big run. As many as 22 of the last 24 winners of the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ have been aged ten or younger. However, what age we should be looking to for this hunter chase could not contrast any more differently as all but two of the last 31 winners have been aged at least nine so a very different type of horse is required. In fact, the 1-2-3-4-5 were aged 11+ last year. On that basis the eight-year-old Current Event is up against it and has to bounce back from a poor run at Cheltenham where he was fancied but couldn’t complete a nine-timer (seven of those wins coming in point-to-points). The best British hope looks to be Twirling Magnet, a first-fence faller in the Grand National last year but a ready winner of his last two hunter chases for Jonjo O’Neill. Also in total contrast to the Cheltenham Festival equivalent is the early origins of most recent winners as ten of the last 13 winners were former handicappers under Rules rather than being brought up through the point-to-point ranks unlike the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ Chase where 23 of the last 26 winners started their career down the traditional point-to-point/hunter chase route. Pacha Du Polder represents Paul Nicholls who was a smart handicapper winning the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury beating Big Fella Thanks and won a hunter chase well last time out after a decent second to Teafortheee. The 13-year-old Big Fella Thanks has loads of experience over these fences and golden oldies have a good record in the race so he is not one to rule out of getting into the mix, especially with Derek O’Connor in the saddle and has been in great heart of late almost winning a valuable handicap chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and then winning a hunter chase. Short List Warne On The Fringe Last Time D’Albain Conclusion No apologies for being boring regards the short list but this is a race usually dominated by the leading fancies for the win and places so you might want to consider perming them in various exactas and trifectas, maybe even an Irish 1-2-3 as I would have Warne, On The Fringe and Last Time D’Albain at the top of my list with Twirling Magnet as best of the Brits. If WARNE is in the same form as last year and gets into the same rhythm out in front, he will prove hard to peg back and 6/1 each-way is fair enough. ON THE FRINGE is likely to be given a patient ride to creep into it and is at the top of his game and won so easily at Cheltenham that he may not have taken too much out of himself and there is an extra week between the two races this year. I couldn’t put you off splitting stakes on the pair and having them in a reverse exacta. LAST TIME D’ALBAIN has valuable course experience and also enters the race in great nick and can go well.

[The Aintree Melling Steeple Chase > Friday April 10th @ 3:25pm]

Re: The Aintree Melling Steeple Chase > Friday April 10th @ 3:25pm 3:25 Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle Seven horses have been declared to take part in the only Grade 1 hurdle race run over 2m4f in Britain including two former Champion Hurdle winners, Rock On Ruby and Jezki, and this season’s Champion Hurdle runner-up, Arctic Fire and it will be a surprised if the winner doesn’t emanate from this trio who should dominate the market. The down-to-the-wire battle between The New One and Rock On Ruby last year added to the many fantastic finishes that this race has served up down the years but few, however, will argue that the epic duel between Night Nurse and Monksfield who dead-heated in 1977 does not top the bill. The performance of Night Nurse on that occasion is still officially the greatest ever by a hurdler as he was giving 6lb to Monksfield. Last season’s renewal has been a big guide down the years and when successful last year The New One became the eighth Aintree Hurdle winner in the last 14 runnings to have won at this three-day meeting in the past having won the Bumper beating My Tent Or Yours. The New One’s victory also meant that seven of the last 15 winners had contested the previous season’s renewal having finished second to Zarkandar the previous year, six of which finished in the first four. This time it will be Rock On Ruby attempting to go one place better than 12 months earlier and this is surely his best trip so can he become the first British-trained winner that bypassed Cheltenham as all 20 home-based winners ran at The Festival? He was all set to take his chance in the World Hurdle but worked poorly the week before so it was decided to freshen him up for this contest. If successful at the age of ten, he would become the joint oldest winner alongside Mister Morose in a poor year. With Arctic Fire and Jezki in opposition, this is not a poor year. Four of the last five winners had finished second, third or fourth in the Champion Hurdle but given that 26 of the 38 Aintree Hurdle winners in total ran in that race, but only six since 1999, that does suggest it is not as crucial a guide as in its early years, even if it was run over 2m5f in those days and a furlong shorter now which should theoretically suit Champion Hurdle contenders better. Contenders from this season’s Champion Hurdle are Arctic Fire (2nd), Jezki (4th) and Vaniteux (8th). Remarkably, only one of the last 14 Champion Hurdle runners-up to take their chance has won which is a stat against Arctic Fire but I would be more worried whether he will be as effective over 2m4f having not run beyond 2m before as he has plenty of speed and Willie Mullins is even considering the Melbourne Cup for him. That said, Solwhit, Khyber Kim and Zarkandar have won this race recently having not won at 2m before. After he finished second in the Champion Hurdle, Mullins commented that he would only keep on improving. I was keen on the each-way chances of Jezki in the Champion Hurdle but he disappointed me finishing fourth. I also worry about three flights in the home straight and he has belted the final hurdle on four times in his career and it’s a short enough run-in. Unlike Arctic Fire, however, we know he will relish 2m4f having won the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle over this trip. What I do find significant, however, going back over this longer trip, is that they ditched the hood. Sticking with Cheltenham form and there was a five-year spell between 1997-2001 when, curiously, runners-up in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December had a remarkable record with Bimsey, Pridwell and Barton going one place better here but the last three winners of that Grade 2 race to take their chance have both won with The New One emulating Zarkandar and Khyber Kim in completing that particular double. This season’s Stan James International Hurdle went the way of The New One (misses the race through injury) who beat Vaniteux into second. Blue Heron beat a below-par Irving when winning the Kingwell Hurdle and ran okay on his only start over around this trip but he looks at his best forcing it over 2m. A canny ride from the front could see him outrun his odds. Melodic Rendezvous is back to hurdling after a poor round of jumping in the Pendil Novices’ Chase and would prefer it to be much softer than the official good-to-soft at present. The field is completed by Volnay De Thaix who was 2¼l behind Rock On Ruby at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and then a good fifth in the Coral Cup. If any horse can shake up the big three, it might be him but seven runners rules him out of being a serious each-way option. Shortlist Jezki Rock On Ruby Conclusion Given that there have been as many as 38 runnings of this prize, the Irish have a fantastic record winning 18 of them despite been comprehensively outnumbered and they have a great opportunity to enhance their strong record further still with Arctic Fire and JEZKI likely to occupy to the first two positions in the market. Over this trip I prefer Jezki if he jumps well. The Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown has been their best guide of late in which Jezki finished second to Hurricane Fly with Arctic Fire back in third. Only 1¾ lengths covered all three. ROCK ON RUBY has the strongest form claims of the British defence against a strong Irish challenge having finished second last year splitting the New One and Diakali in a three-way photo (but I think this is a better race) and I think that is more important than the fact that every home-trained winner of this race had run at the Cheltenham Festival.

[The Betfred Bowl Steeple Chase > Thursday April 9th @ 2:50pm]

Re: The Betfred Bowl Steeple Chase > Thursday April 9th @ 2:50pm 2:50 Betfred Bowl Naturally the Gold Cup has to be the starting point and 20 of the 31 winners took their chance in the blue riband of the jumps season. This year’s Bowl will be the sixth running as a Grade 1 race but I would argue that last year’s winner, Silviniaco Conti was the first top-notcher to win it for 13 years. The main reason for this is that the highest class staying chasers who had a hard race in the Gold Cup either bypass the race or have left their best form behind at Prestbury Park plus the best of the Irish tend to wait for Punchestown and they are unrepresented again. Last year’s winner is back again and not off quite as hard a race as he had in last year’s Gold Cup in seventh one place ahead of Smad Place (but hard enough given the gallop Coneygree set on softer ground than 12 months earlier) and there is an argument that he should start favourite off the back of his King George win but Holywell looks like he will start favourite after a very good fourth in the Gold Cup on rain-softened ground that went against him overnight. Can he recover in time after that run? I usually argue the case to overlook horses placed 1-2-3 in the Gold Cup as of the last 11 placed horses in the Gold Cup to run here, only Exotic Dancer has won and all 11 would have been very much to the fore in the betting. The omens are good for Holywell however as he put up an even better performance at Aintree last season when he won the novice chase beating a high quality field than he did than when he won at Cheltenham three weeks earlier and there is an extra week from which to recover. Smad Place has shown more than once that proper Grade 1 races are just beyond him. Of the last 18 winners, nine finished in the first four in the King George VI Chase earlier in the season which is a big positive for Silviniaco Conti. Menorah also ran but he finished eighth and has not run since. Menorah could have run in the Ryanair where he would have been top rated on official figures but connections decided to hold him back for this race in which he was a narrow second to First Lieutenant two years ago. Grey Abbey and Nacarat both won the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in the autumn earlier in the same season as winning this race and, a little further back, Barton Bank was second in the Charlie Hall the season he won this race and Our Vic won the Charlie Hall in 2006 two years before he won the Bowl which bodes well for Menorah who won that contest in style back in late October. The fact he is the oldest horse in the race at ten doesn’t worry me. The Gold Cup winner has not been aged above ten since way back in 1969 yet as many as eight horses aged 11+ have won the Bowl since it was first run in 1984. From 31 runnings, horses aged 10+ have won on 14 occasions which is even more of an eyebrow-raiser when we consider that they have not only been comprehensively outnumbered but have also been totally unrepresented on occasions. Contrast this with the record of horses 10+ in the Gold Cup for example where only Cool Dawn of the older contingent has come out on top since 1992. I would not go quite as far to say that this race has been a front runner’s paradise but for 13 of the 31 runnings to have been won by the pacesetter is one heck of a strike rate so should be of interest to in-running punters. Perhaps Vukovar will front run here like he usually does but he is trying a longer trip so that’s not a given. This is his first run since switching from Harry Fry to Warren Greatrex. He needs to improve but if this trip can do that, he is dangerous if allowed an uncontested lead. He is a big, heavy horse however so I question whether the ground is ideal for him. Ma Filleule has proven she stays this far having finished second to Holywell at Cheltenham last year but her big positive is her jumping and maybe that is likely to seen to better effect over a shorter trip? The counter argument to that is there are more fences so she can make more ground. Runner-up in the Ryanair to a horse who never looked like getting caught, that was a step up on her Ascot Chase second but I think she needs to improve again. Ballynagour missed Cheltenham as he wasn’t firing and is now tried in a first-time hood. The absence of 131 days doesn’t worry me but the trip does having been at his best over 2m and 2m5f last season. It’s a leap of faith if you back him. Short List Holywell Menorah Conclusion It would be no surprise to see Silviniaco Conti bounce back on a flat course having never really shone during his career at Cheltenham but HOLYWELL looks like a spring horse who can build on his Gold Cup fourth on unsuitable ground having been so impressive at this meeting last year after he won at the Festival and he has an extra week from which to recover this time and McCoy takes over from McLernon. MENORAH has been trained for this race since the King George and the more the ground dries out the better his chance. I would have been very sweet on him each-way if there was an eighth runner so it looks like a win bet instead. Vukovar is the fascinating contender having his first run for Warren Greatrex and stepping up markedly in trip. It could be completely the wrong move but, in a race where front runners have a great record, it could be a genius move if they choose to front run trying a longer distance. He might be one for in-running punters. I am just not convinced this is Ma Filleule or Ballynagour’s best trip and Smad Place keeps getting beat in good races.

[The Aintree Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle > Thursday April 9th @ 2:15pm]

Re: The Aintree Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle > Thursday April 9th @ 2:15pm 2:15 Betfred Anniversary 4-Y.O Anniversary Hurdle Eleven of the last 15 winners contested the Triumph Hurdle. No surprise that the Triumph should be the obvious starting point and especially since this race was elevated to Grade 1 status in 2005 and, since that upgrade, nine of the ten winners arrived here having either won or been placed at Prestbury Park, seven of which in the Triumph so that is where we will start. The highest-place finisher in today’s line up is Hargam (3rd) who finished one place but ten lengths clear of Devilment (4th) with Stars Over the Sea (8th) a further eight lengths adrift. It is hard to see that form being reversed especially in light of the fact that the overnight rain that fell was probably not to the liking of Hargam who has some toe about him as he showed when he won at Musselburgh. The other winning pair to place at Cheltenham outside of the Triumph were Binocular, who finished second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Orsippus who was third in the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle and there are four Fred Winter representatives this season; the Paul Nicholls-trained pair of Bouvreuil (2nd) and All Yours (5th), Starchitect (4th) and Hostile Fire (19th). Hostile Fire was well fancied but was hampered at half-way and was keen before then, hence the application of a first-time hood here. Starchitect attempted to make all and battled on well to hang on for a place but they are tough tactics to pull off here and, surprisingly, McCain’s stats at all Aintree as a whole are poor, despite a Grand National win and Hargam beat him all ends up by 6l at Musselburgh. All Yours is 4lb better off with Bouvreuil for 3l but I rather suspect Nicholls fancied Qualando most of his trio that day given his post-race comments, which makes me wonder if they are really up to winning a Grade 1. Three of the last seven Anniversary Hurdle winners ran in the Adonis in which All Yours was second. So, Cheltenham Festival form looks a must then? Yes unless we are dealing with fillies as the last four successful female winners all missed the Festival. Four fillies going back to 1993 have won from fewer than 10% representation and this has been the main plan for Intense Tango since she won a weak Grade 2 mares hurdle at Doncaster in January. The trip of 2m2f at Kelso behind the high-class Glingerburn probably stretched her last time out. Not since Mysilv, during the 1993/94 season, has the winner of Chepstow’s juvenile showpiece, the Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) gone on to Triumph Hurdle glory yet five of the last 15 winners of the Anniversary Hurdle had finished in the first four at the Welsh track over the New Year period. Bristol De Mai was an impressive winner of that race this season but he has been beaten fair and square twice since and looks like he might be one for when the ground rides deep. The field is completed by Winner Massagot for Alan King who has won four of the last eight runnings. He won well at Kempton ten days ago but this is a different class of race altogether. Of the last 25 winners, all but four had won over hurdles at least twice and 17 of the last 20 winners had won or finished placed in Graded company earlier in the season so that wouldn’t be in his favour. Short List Hargam Intense Tango Devilment Conclusion HARGAM looks a solid favourite in a race where Triumph Hurdle placed horses have a strong record and this flatter course is also expected to suit as is the faster ground than was the case for the opening race of Day 4 at the Cheltenham Festival. There is every chance he will travel strongly and will pick off the leader on the run-in under a patient ride but at around Evens, his superiority has more than been factored into his price. Bristol De Mai is his biggest rival on the figures but I am not sure a flat 2m on ground faster than soft is what will bring the best out of him so maybe INTENSE TANGO rates as the best alternative and of each-way interest at a double-figure price (or betting without Hargam) given how well fillies have performed in this race from few runners with their 7lb allowance and flat tracks look to suit her well. Dropping back to 2m can almost suit. Alan King’s record means we should respect Winner Massagot but DEVILMENT would be the final shortlisted horse. He has 10l to find with Hargam from the Triumph but the rain probably also did him few favours having impressed on good ground when he won at Doncaster.

[The Aintree Manifesto Novices’ Steeple Chase > Thursday April 9th @ 1:40pm]

Re: The Aintree Manifesto Novices’ Steeple Chase > Thursday April 9th @ 1:40pm 1:40 One Magnificent City Manifesto Chase Basically, this is Aintree’s equivalent of the JLT Novices’ Chase in that it fills the void in the spring for horses that are more comfortable at this intermediate race distance of 2m4f than the Maghull Novices’ Chase over 2m or the Mildmay Novices’ Chase over 3m1f. There are six runnings to work off (and two as a Grade 1 race) so the trends need time to find their feet. It is very early days of course but all six winners ran well in defeat at the Cheltenham Festival and were sent off in the first three in the betting. So far it is 3-3 between the Arkle and JLT in terms of which Cheltenham race the Manifesto winner contested but with no JLT representatives this year but four of the six declarations ran in the Arkle, it is long odds-on that the 2m novice chase championship will edge ahead. Josses Hill (3rd) fared best of the four Arkle runners finishing one place ahead of Vibrato Valtat (4th) with Clarcam (8th) never a factor and who did not jump fluently and Three Kingdoms (9th) also did not run up to expectations. I suspect this quartet are running here as they don’t want to take on Un De Sceaux again in the 2m Grade 1 on Saturday though Josses Hill shaped like he might prefer a longer trip when a staying-on third at Cheltenham and the likely slower pace of an extra half-mile could help his jumping, I say ‘could’ as he jumped better in a fast-run race last time but he still lost ground at many of his fences. His trainer has won the Manifesto twice in its short history. Maybe this longer trip can help Clarcam’s jumping? He had jumped well in Ireland but looked uncomfortable from the get-go in the Arkle but he has a chance on his Irish Arkle second where he just beat the subsequent Grade 1 winner, Gilgamboa, into third. Three Kingdoms dropped right out in the Arkle so maybe Cheltenham’s undulations weren’t for him having shown his best form on flat tracks when second to Vibrato Valtat at Kempton and winning at Doncaster? His connections were considering the JLT in the lead up to Cheltenham as jockeys to have ridden him stated he would prefer further so now he gets his chance. He wasn’t outpaced in the Arkle though which just makes me think the course was against him. Vibrato Valtat has pace so this step up in trip is a slight surprise. I suspected before the Arkle that he would pay for attempting to chase down Un De Sceaux which is what happened, even if Paul Nicholls stated beforehand that he would not be ridden that way. He is better than that and will be seen in a better light when he can pick off a leader that he doesn’t have to chase down with his turn of foot rather than having to do the donkey work. His trainer does not have a good record in this race however with Chapoturgeon (fell first) and Al Ferof (beaten 12 lengths) failing as favourite and, for horses to be sent off as fancied as 100/30, 11/4 and 11/2, three of his other contenders, who all bypassed Cheltenham, were most disappointing beaten 33 lengths, 24 lengths and 26 lengths respectively. The stable’s Cristal Bonus ran well to finish second three years ago after pulling up in the JLT where he returned with an abscess on his withers but his sole contender last year finished a tailed-off last of five. His name was Dodging Bullets. The two horses not to contest the Arkle who line up are Cash And Go who was a smart handicap hurdler last season for Nicky Henderson and 2-3 in small novice chases for Venetia Williams and Val De Law who was running a big race when he fell at the last fence in a good novice chase at Exeter on his British debut for Jamie Snowden won by Southfield Theatre but was caught in the final 100 yards by Cash And Go at Leicester last month. Short List Josses Hill Three Kingdoms Conclusion I can see JOSSES HILL and THREE KINGDOMS being more at home over this half-mile longer trip than in the Arkle (and also appreciate a flat track) more so than Vibrato Valtat who had loads of toe and whose trainer has a terrible record in this race, and also Clarcam who has to put a poor round of jumping behind him and this isn’t the track for that usually, so I’ll side with that pair to fight it out. With Geraghty injured, Nico De Boinville has picked up the spare ride on Josses Hill. However, I do have time for Val De Law who can reverse form with Cash And Go having promised much on his British debut. Three horses on a shortlist in a six-runner race is a bit cheeky but it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if he massively outran his odds. I think he is a good horse in the making.

[Weatherbys Champion Bumper > Wednesday March 11th @ 5:15pm]

Re: Weatherbys Champion Bumper > Wednesday March 11th @ 5:15pm Weatherbys Champion Bumper Business as usual for the Irish with Silver Concorde giving them a ninth win in the last 11 years last season but the highest rated horse on official figures this year is the David Pipe-trained Moon Racer and three of the last 12 winners were top rated. It is tight at the top with Bordini just 1lb back and Ghost River and Pylonthepressure 2lb back. Bordini and Pylonthepressure are two of Willie Mullins’ seven contenders as he goes in search of his ninth win in this race. His others are Au Quart De Tour, Bellshill, Livelovelaugh, Stone Hard and Up For Review. Of those, Bellshill and Up For Review were beaten into second last time out, albeit by high quality horses, so they would get the chop for a trends based short list as 20 of this race’s 22 winners won on their most recent start. Two quite interesting points about Willie Mullins’ eight previous winners; (1) on four occasions when he won the race he saddled just one runner and (2) on three of the other four occasions when he was successful when represented by more than one contender, it was one of his second or third strings according to the betting that emerged on top. Of those eight Mullins-trained winners, six had won their only bumper start and the significant part about that is that only Cue Card in the history of the race has done likewise so that is against Wait For Me. Other horses overlooked for being beaten last time out Always Lion, Modus, who has not run since he was eighth in this race last year and wears a first-time hood, Neatly Put, O O Seven, Theo’s Charm, Yanworth and Montana Belle. It is interesting that Gigginstown House Stud, whose policy has been not to send over any of their army of bumper horses, send over two in Stone Hard and General Principle and the owner’s retained rider, Bryan Cooper, is on the latter for Gordon Elliott who also runs Jetstream Jack. The overall record of the Irish remains immensely strong having won all but five of the 22 runnings from just over 33% of the total runners. Somewhat quirkily, on the five occasions when the Brits have been successful, they also provided the runner-up and even a 1-2-3-4-5-6 in 2003. The British cause wasn’t helped this season when the impressive Ascot winner, Supasundae, was bought out of Andrew Balding’s stable and sent to Henry de Bromhead. No one race stands out as an obvious guide but respect bumper form at the prestigious four-day Leopardstown Christmas Meeting where the best horses in Ireland come out to play and it has featured six Weatherbys Champion Bumper winners. Up For Review impressed winning the bumper restricted to horses aged between four and six but he has been beaten since. The all-aged bumper at the same meeting looked the classiest of the four races beforehand and was won by the Dermot Weld-trained Vigil who had the form having finished fifth in last season’s Champion Bumper. The winner took his time to master Bellshill but, whereas the trainer of the runner-up had stated that he had improved plenty for his last win, Weld hinted he would need the run. It will be interesting to see who starts faviourite as there is usually a gamble but as many as nine favourites (or joint-favourites) have filled the runner-up berth in the 22 runnings with just two successful market leaders which is a poor return for a Grade 1 race. Shortlist Au Quart De Tour Lovelivelaugh Moon Racer Supasundae Conclusion Having won his sole bumper, which is an angle Willie Mullins has done well with in this race, maybe AU QUART DE TOUR could be the best of his septet? I cannot just leave it at one Mullins horse given he has won the race on eight occasions and his LOVELIVELAUGH has the same profile. Both had won also their only point-to-point. Given the BHA top rated has won three times in the last 12 years and other top-rated horses have gone close, then MOON RACER also makes the short list having impressed here back in November. SUPASUNDAE was bought by Alan Potts of Sizing Europe fame and sent to Henry de Bromhead after a very impressive win at Ascoot beating the well regarded Yanworth and horses who have not run in the calendar year have a good record in the race.

[Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 4:00pm]

Re: Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 4:00pm Glenfarclas Cross County Handicap Chase A poor renewal. Let’s start with some negative stats and only 2 of the 88 horses aged under eight to run over these obstacles since cross country racing came to all meetings at Cheltenham have won and they were seven-year-olds so let’s say goodbye to Nuage D’Ainay, Dogora and Master Rajeem who are only aged six. Cross Country debutants have won just one of the last 33 races over these obstacles so I also can’t be backing Rivage D’Or, Charingworth, Rose Of The Moon or Are Ya Right Chief. That’s almost half of the field cut very quickly. It would not be absolutely correct to say that if it was not for the Philip Hobbs’ dual winner, Balthazar King, then the Irish would have had a clean sweep of all ten runnings as it was the Martin Keighley-trained Any Currency who he mastered only in the final stride last season. It is not just that particular first 1-2 for the Brits in this race that has got me thinking whether last year’s result may be the beginning of the end of the Irish domination of this race as British-trained horses have now won the last five races run over Cheltenham’s cross-country course. Compare that against their record in the first seven years of this race where they were 0-56 when they could manage only a meagre five of the place positions and three of those were achieved in the inaugural running in 2005. So, for the home defence to have won the last five races over this course over all meetings is one heck of a turnaround. The Irish only entered ten horses this year compared to 20 last year and they are represented by only Quantitativeeasing, Rivage D’Or, Chicago Grey and the Willie Mullins-trained trio of Uncle Junior (wants soft ground or gets lapped), Dogora (aged just six) and Are Ya Right Chief (a cross country debutant). Quantitativeeasing is trained by banks kings Enda Bolger who has won just shy of one-third of all cross-country races staged at Cheltenham (15 of 44) and also trained either the winner or runner-up in this race on seven occasions but, significantly, he has not trained a winner of any of the last 14 races run over this cross-country course. Quantitativeeasing finished second here in December behind Any Currency and that has been a better guide than the race here in November where Uncle Junior, Sire Collonges and Any Currency filled the places behind Balthazar King. Of the 44 races to have been run over this course, 28 winners had won or finished placed over these obstacles before. Three winners contested last season’s renewal with varying degrees of success. Duke Of Lucca was sent off favourite for the December race but exited the race just after half-way and represents Hobbs instead of Balthazar Ling who waits for the Grand National. Hobbs has also won a race over this course with Lacdoudal so knows what it takes. The P.P. Hogan Memorial Chase has thrown up three 1-2s at the Festival and four winners in total from its nine runnings so is a good guide but the 1-2-3 are missing and Quantitativeeasing (4th) and Ipsos Du Berlais (5th) represent the race this time. The La Touche Cup is one of the most iconic races run in Ireland and has been the domain of Enda Bolger winning 12 of the last 17 runnings but, maybe significantly, not the last four. Two of the last five winners of the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Handicap had finished fourth in Ireland’s most prestigious banks race the previous spring which looked a below-average renewal last year beforehand run on good-to-firm ground. That view was confirmed when Jacks Island sprung a 25/1 shock and ended his 32-race losing streak into the bargain with Uncle Junior a never-nearer third. Quantitativeeasing was nowhere to be sighted with a mile to race before staying on so a similar run to his second at Cheltenham in December and Duke Of Lucca was sent off 9/4 favourite but made a bad error seven out. Following Big Shu’s third place last season, it has now been eight years since the favourite won and Any Currency currently holds that position but the French-trained Toutancarmont could press him for that position having won 12 of his 24 chase starts. last year I made reference to Philip Hobbs considering swerving this race with Balthazar King with his argument at the time being that he was concerned that his handicap mark of 150 would be too high to overcome. In the end the right decision was made and the rest is history. Weight will ultimately stop trains so they say, but weight does not make as big a difference over this course compared to park fences as horses are constantly being allowed to fill up their lungs with all the twists and turns. Hey Big Spender is top weight this season but he bombed in this race last year. Short List Any Currency Quantitativeeasing Sire Collonges Conclusion Having won the best guide back in December and narrowly beaten in this race last year ANY CURRENCY has to appear on the shortlist and a 9lb raise for his defeat of QUANTITATIVEEASING is not unduly harsh. The runner-up has been running in all the right races and is trained by the right man so he also makes the short list but don’t be surprised if he is some way off the pace before staying on strongly and possibly too late judged on his December handicap and La Touche Cup runs. As Toutancarmont doesn’t have any course form the final slot goes to SIRE COLLONGES who has won at the course before and ran a good third at The Open Meeting splitting Uncle Junior and Any Currency for the places behind Balthazar King. He may well have bypassed the December handicap to protect his handicap mark for this.

[Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase This year’s renewal is not unlike an episode of Casualty with Sprinter Sacre recovering from a heart fibrillation, Sire De Grugy missed the bulk of the season so far down to muscle problems, Dodging Bullets has been transformed partly by a wind operation and Mr Mole’s improvement from the psychiatric ward has been nothing short of dramatic. Sprinter Sacre will be attempting to become the third horse to regain his crown after losing it but, surprisingly, the record of the defending Champion Chaser of late has been very poor with just one winning from the last 12 to try and ten of those started favourite or second-favourite, so that is a statistic that Sire De Grugy has to overcome. The best guide by a country mile has been the Tingle Creek in which Dodging Bullets beat Somersby. Ten of the last 14 winners ran in the Tingle Creek. Dodging Bullets then won the Clarence House Chase that has been contested by the last three Champion Chase winners with two winning so he has certainly been running in the right races this season. Maybe this is just a small point but it is worth mentioning that the last five winners to be aged seven or younger were all French-breds which is not an ideal statistic for the British-bred Dodging Bullets. At the other end of the age scale, given that it took an all-time two-mile chasing great in Moscow Flyer to become the only winner aged over ten since 1977 it is hard to make a case for the former winner and dual runner-up Sizing Europe (13) or last season’s second Somersby (11). Dodging Bullets has improved plenty since finishing fourth in last year’s Arkle which has been a cracking guide. For example, the last 14 Arkle winners to run here all placed. Last year’s winner is on the sidelines but the narrow runner-up Champagne Fever has a great record when he is dropped back to 2m and has a Cheltenham Festival pedigree second to none at this year’s meeting having also won the Bumper and Supreme. Nineteen of the last 30 winners have won at the Festival so he meets that criterion as do Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, Sizing Europe and Savello. The Irish have won five of the last 12 runnings and Champagne Fever is the chief hope ahead of Special Tiara, Sizing Europe and Savello. With 32 of the last 33 winners sent off at a SP of no bigger than 11/1 (and 13 of the last 15 could be found at no bigger than 5/1), this is not the race to go in search of that elusive big-priced winner so last year’s Grand Annual winner Savello is likely to struggle though that handicap hasn’t been a bad guide at all with Pearlyman, Katabatic and Edredon Bleu having won it before winning a Champion Chase and Fota Island finishing second. His fellow Irish raider, Special Tiara, is also likely to fall outside of the price bracket but he did win the Desert Orchid Chase like three of the last eight winners. Only sixth last year after early mistakes, the faster the ground the better or this front runner. Clarcam is a likely non runner. Of the leading fancies Mr Mole is the only non Grade 1 winner and only one of the last 13 winners had failed to win at the highest level. Simply Ned and Savello have also yet to win at the highest level. Simply Ned is also likely to fall outside of this SP bracket and has it to do on placed efforts in last season’s Maghull (which has been a good guide), the Sholer Chase (where he had Dodging Bullets one place back before his improvement) and the Grade 1 in Ireland over Christmas. Mr Mole did win a graded chase last time out like 9 of the last 12 winners when winning a very strange Game Spirit Chase last time out so Sprinter Sacre also fails on this stat. So does Sire De Grugy who won a handicap instead but at least he won so hard to call that a negative in his case. Short List Champagne Fever Dodging Bullets (Sire De Grugy) Conclusion CHAMPAGNE FEVER has a lot in his favour being an Irish-trained horse with Festival form figures of 112 who excels when he drops back down to 2m. Two Arkle runner-ups have won the following season so it’s not all about the winner of last season’s novice championship in that respect and four horses since 1989 who failed to stay in the King George then successfully dropped back in trip to win the Champion Chase from not all that many to try. The only slight negative for DODGING BULLETS is that when a seven-year-old has won, it has tended to be a French-bred of late but, other than that, he has won the best two guides of the current season and his trainer has a strong win-and-place record in the race. Not having won a Grade 1 race is the major sticking point for his stable mate, Mr Mole, and Sprinter Sacre did not win last time out so he can’t make a trends-based short list. The record of defending title holder is not good of late but SIRE DE GRUGY completes the short list having won last time out (albeit not in a graded race) and being assured of starting at no bigger than 11/1 which is a big stat that rules out everything else in the race.

[Coral Cup Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:40pm]

Re: Coral Cup Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:40pm Coral Cup The field size has been reduced from 28 to 26 so that makes it much easier to find the winner! The last two winners were the classiest two winners in the race’s history breaking previous official ratings stats so I couldn’t put you off Volnay De Thaix off top weight doing likewise. To be frank, it is not a handicap that trends-based punters have been able to seriously get their teeth into as it has never been overburdened with strong patterns but anyone backing second-season hurdlers that won last time out would have collected on five occasions in the last 12 years. Qualifiers on that combination statistic this time are Zabana, Baradari, Ttebbob and the likely favourite, Aux Ptits Soins, who has not run since September 11th since he came from France as Nicholls wanted to protect his handicap mark of 139 for this race. He has been working well with Grade 1 horses at home. Baradari was fifth in last season’s Fred Winter and represents Venetia Williams who won this race ten years ago with Idole First. He improved for the step up to this kind of trip when successful at Sandown last time out. Eleven of the 21 Coral Cup winners arrived here off the back of a last-time-out success which is some going from approximately 20% representation. Zabana and Ttebbob are both Irish-trained like seven of the 21 winners which is an excellent strike rate and other Irish hopes are Blackmail in a first-time hood and Marinero for Tony Martin, Un Atout and Daneking for Willie Mullins, Plinth for Aidan O’Brien who has been pace making for Jezki, Taglietelle for Gordon Elliott who win this race with Carlito Brigante, and the former Triumph Hurdle runner, Hisaabaat, for Dermot Weld. Horses aged 10+ are 2-26 to place from 1999 so the four-timer chasing Shammick Boy is not for me. Only five of the 21 winners had not won at some point earlier in the campaign and the relevance of that statistic is that, on average, between half and two-thirds of the field will enter the Coral Cup without a victory to their name earlier in the season. Non winners this season are Lac Fontana, Blackmail, Activial, Clondaw Kaempfer, Un Atout, Rolling Star, Lyvius, Dell ‘Arca, Hammersley Lake, Hisaabaat, Mijhaar, Daneking and Barizan. The last six winners had raced no more than four times earlier in the season so that is nor ideal for Bear’s Affair, Dell Arca, Plinth, Shammick Boy, Tagliettele, Mijhaar, Barinero and Barizan. Short List Baradari Aux Ptits Soins Ttebbob Zabana Un Atout Conclusion As five of the last 12 winners won last time out and were second-season hurdlers, I see no reason not to include all four of Baradari, Aux Ptits Soins, Ttebbob and Zabana as they don’t fail any negative stats. AUX PTIT SOINS is the one with the sexy profile and for that reason he will be well fancied but he could also be a class above these judging by who he is working with at Paul Nicholls’ yard. Horses with a freshness angle have done well in this race and he has not run since September to protect his handicap mark. BARADARI is tough and just the sort to revel in a race like this and ran well at last season’s Festival so he makes plenty of each-way appeal. ZABANA won easily over 2m last time but stays 3m so this 2m5f trip can suit him ideally and he appeals most of the Irish. TTEBBOB is not to be underestimated though having bounced back to win at Clonmel after not staying 3m on his previous start. UN ATOUT would be my fly in the ointment horse. He is well handicapped strictly on his fourth in ther Supreme two years ago behind Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours and Jezki no less but missed last season through injury and is now back to hurdling after failing to won on his first two chase starts.

[The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm RSA Chase There is every chance that at least one strong negative trend will be overcome here as the leading fancies don’t have the right profile but are strong on pure form grounds. Take the Willie Mullins-trained Don Poli for example whose victory over Apache Stronghold in the Grade 1 Topaz Chase was franked when the runner-up then won the Grade 1 Flogas Chase but he has not run since Christmas unlike the last 51 years, he has only run twice over fences whereas the last 15 winners had run three times or more and just two six-year-old have won since 1978. By the same token, the Neil Mulholland-trained The Young Master is also a six-year-old and has also not run this side of Christmas having won a handicap at Ascot in December on his last start. Mullins is the man for the RSA though with three winners, two seconds and four others bang in contention until falling late on. The stat that Kings Palace has to overcome is that we have to go back 13 years to find the last winner to have started their career over fences over the RSA trip of around three miles. In his favour is that he contested (though ran below expectations) in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle last season like 4 of the last 5 RSA winners (may have all been all 5 if Boston Bob didn’t fall at the final fence when leading). He is also a seven-year-old as were the last eight winners. The only other seven-year-old likely to start at a single-figure price is last season’s Pertemps Final runner-up, Southfield Theatre, but he spent more than one season over hurdles unlike 19 of the previous 22 RSA winners. He does represent Paul Nicholls though who has bagged two RSA Chases. What a mess and something has to give. At least Coneygree isn’t running or he would have a great chance of being a first ever Kauto Star Novices’ Chase winner to win the RSA. He waits for the Gold Cup in a bold move. Other contenders not being sent over fences after one season of hurdling are the Sky Bet Chase winner, If In Doubt, who will need to jump a lot better than he did on the first circuit at Doncaster and The Young Master so that’s a third big negative stat he has to overcome and a fourth is that he started life on the Flat and no ex-Flat horse has placed for 20 years. The last 12 winners had finished first or second in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase which is something that only the Gigginstown-owned pair of Don Poli and Wounded Warrior have achieved. The NH Chase was the plan for Wounded Warrior until 24 hours ago and this move to the RSA looks like being because Noel Meade now has the favourite for the four-miler in the NH Chase and owner/trainer wanted to keep them apart. If last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle third Apache Jack can win, he will be first horse to do so in the last 29 years having failed to finish in the first three last time out. I cannot recall a maiden over fences winning the RSA in my time following racing either. Of those, 25 finished first or second which is against Adriana Des Mottes who was third in the Flogas Chase, but that has been the best guide featuring four of the last six winners. She is only five and receives just a 2lb age allowance (but a 7lb mares’ allowance on top) whereas Star De Mohaison was getting 10lb when he won at the same age. Short List Wounded Warrior The Ould Lad (Kings Palace) Conclusion None of the leading fancies fit the bill ideally. WOUNDED WARRIOR does not to fail any of the negative statistics so he makes the short list and many a Gigginstown second string has beaten its shorter-priced rival in Ireland this season. THE OULD LAD also passes all the negative trends so he could be the real each-way value of the race for the Tom George yard who supplied the 25/1 runner-up in the Arkle. He has it to find on pure form grounds but big-priced horses placing in the RSA with a stamina profile are not unfamiliar. KINGS PALACE only fails on not starting his chasing career over a shorter trip and he contested the Albert Bartlett last season which has supplied four of the last five winners so he gets the final slot. Don Poli and The Young Master have three and four negative stats respectively overcome.

[Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Ten head to post with all the leading fancies standing their ground. Twelve of the last 17 winners had won a pattern race over hurdles and half the field have managed that. The quintet that have not are Anteros who was a well beaten second in a weak Grade 2 here in December, Beast Of Burden who has impressed at Ffos Las and Bangor on his last two starts, Snow Falcon who won a maiden hurdle at Navan last time out, Warrantor who was disappointing on his last start when second off joint-favourite for the Lanzarote Hurdle and Windsor Park who was second to Nichols Canyon in the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle. Just two of the last 29 winners started outside the first five in the betting and it is likely only Windsor Park of those mentioned above will start in one of those coveted positions. Anteros and Warrantor finished out of the first two last time out which is a big negative with only one of the last 31 Neptune winners doing likewise. With regards to the Deloitte, that has been the best Irish guide to the novice hurdles at the Festival and Danoli and Istrabraq both won it en route to winning the Neptune which is a positive for Nichols Canyon who also won the Grade 1 Royal Bond. However, Windsor Park’s supporters should not give up hope as Hardy Eustace won this race after he was second in the Deloitte and he shapes like the step back up in trip will be his favour. Both Nichols Canyon and Windsor Park are classy horses from the Flat, as is Parlour Games, and although NH-breds have much the best record in the Neptune, Istabraq, Galileo and No Refuge all came from the Flat and they are usually heavily outnumbered. With regards to Parlour Games, who won the Melrose Handicap at the Ebor Meeting, he won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury and is the leading British hope but all 14 winners of that race to run here have been beaten though six were placed. That said, most Challow winners on heavy ground get found out on a faster surface here but Parlour Games should relish this faster ground given his Flat profile. A better trial has been the Classic Novices’ Hurdle won by Ordo Ab Chao though, surprisingly, it is placed horses in that race that have gone on to win the Neptune. Four of the last five started their career in an Irish point-to-point so Ordo Ab Chao picks up another tick there (though he fell on both occasions) as did Outlander who was 0-3 in that sphere. Outlander gives Willie Mullins a second major player in addition to Nichols Canyon having won a very good Grade 2 race last time out at Leopardstown that has been a fair Albert Bartlett guide but this shorter distance looks his trip. Not only was Faugheen giving the Irish their seventeenth win since 1971 last season but, more pertinently, their fifth success in the last nine years and he also provided Willie Mullins with this third Neptune victory. A point worth taking on board with regards the non-Mullins Irish challenge is that winning Leopardstown form is a pre-requisite as their ten winners between 1975-2006 had all won at Ireland’s premier jumping course as did their most recent non-Mullins winner, First Lieutenant. Simonsig ended Nicky Henderson’s dreadful record in this race three years ago and Seven Barrows are represented this season by the Sandown Grade 2 winner and Challow Hurdle runner-up, Vyta Du Roc. The original plan was the Albert Bartlett but the stable already have two others for that and nothing for the Neptune after Kilcrea Vale was scratched so is he running here to spread their team? Short List Outlander Ordo Ab Chao Nichols Canyon Conclusion The shortlist picks itself with the top five in the betting dominating down the years and, of those, Windsor Park has not won a pattern race over hurdles and the record of the Challow winner is poor so Parlour Games also misses out. OUTLANDER and NICHOLS CANYON both represent Willie Mullins who has an excellent Neptune record and both won high-quality pattern races at Leopardstown last time so it is hard to choose between them. As Outlander is NH-bred and a bigger price he would be a marginal preference with this faster ground also expect to suit him whereas Nichols Canyon’s actions suggests he might prefer it softer. ORDO AB CHAO won Britain’s best guide to the Festival novice hurdles and came from the pointing field so he rates the best each-way value in the race.

[Arkle Challenge Trophy > Tuesday March 10th @ 2:05pm]

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy > Tuesday March 10th @ 2:05pm Clarcam had previously won a Grade 1 by 17l at Leopardstown but he had an 11lb age allowance that day which is now totally wiped out,so ts going to be alot harder for him

[National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm Toby Balding National Hunt Chase Gigginstown have had a double u-turn by eventually declaring Very Wood for this race after it was announced last week he would run in the RSA having previously been on target for this contest and he is now likely to start favourite (three of the last five favourites have won) under Nina Carberry who has not had the best of luck in this race having been beaten after leading at the final fence in three of the last five runnings. That means Wounded Warrior misses out but the owner also run Thunder And Roses who was a bit disappointing last time but having impressed on his previous start and shapes like a real marathon-trip horse of the future. Thunder And Roses is officially top rated on 148 just 1lb ahead of Very Wood and 2lb ahead of Cause Of Causes and Perfect Gentlemen so the Irish gave a very strong hand. The National Hunt Chase is a race on the change following three significant alterations to the race conditions in 2002, 2006 and 2010 leading to a superior class of horse required these days required to win. Three of the last four winners were officially top rated. Five and six-year-olds are just 1-67 since 1989 which makes me wary of backing the six-year-old Very Wood even if he won the Albert Bartlett last season. Also aged six are Cogry and Vivaldi Collonges. The latter is trained by Paul Nicholls whose race record reads 0-15, many of which were well fancied and his challenger this year was outclassed in a match by Kings Palace at Newbury last time out. Cogry had previously just beat Doing Fine in the same Warwick chase (I Need Gold looks held back in fourth) that was won by last season’s NH Chase winner trained by Alan King. Doing Fine is interesting as he is bred to want marathon trips, his trainer has won this race and the RSA for staying novice chasers in recent seasons and he has been declared in first-time blinkers. Last season’s winning stable are represented by another Warwick this season in Sego Success and King’s principals in the four-miler down the years all ran at that Midlands track. Ten of the 13 winners since the race conditions alterations had finished first or second last time out which is against Broadway Buffalo (fell – fallers/u.r have approximately just a 3% strike rate at the Festival over the last decade), Cause Of Causes, Perfect Candidate, Return Spring (wears first-time blinkers), Royal Palladium, The Job Is Right, Thunder And Roses, Theatre Queen (who can’t give away lengths at the start like last time) and Top Totti. Cause Of Causes is the most interesting of them as he was prepping in the Boyne Hurdle and was second in last year’s Kim Muir. The Job Is Right was also prepping over hurdles last time out having been booked for second in the Thyestes behind Djakadam on his previous run until he exited at the last fence, His trainer, Michael Hourigan, has a love affair with the NH Chase and won it with Deejaydee who also prepped over hurdles. Willie Mullins runs Perfect Gentleman who is a ten-year-old which is older than I like. Short List Sego Success Doing Fine Thunder And Roses Cause Of Causes Conclusion SEGO SUCCESS has been trained for this race all season by Alan King who has won it with Old Benny and Midnight Prayer and like that pair and his Godsmejudge who was third two years ago, he chose to give him chasing experience at Warwick. DOING FINE also has good Warwick form and represents a stable with a win in the race and he is out of a mare who stayed 4m having won over that trip at Punchstown so he is interesting and particularly in first-time blinkers. THUNDER AND ROSES might be best of the Irish. He is the wrong price as officially the top-rated horse who promises to improve for a marathon trips. CAUSE OF CAUSES has a similar profile to Poker De Sivola in 2010 in that he is second-season chaser who was fancied for the Kim Muir the previous season so he has an experience edge. In fact, he fared better than Poker De Sivola in his Kim Muir as he would probably have beaten Spring Heeled last year if he didn’t belt the final fence. He prepped for this over hurdles so I am not concerned he was unplaced last time out. Of more concern is that he is 0-10 over fences and whether he will fully stay so he might be more of an each-way option.

[Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm CHAPS Barbados Restaurant Novices’ Handicap Chase The race conditions make this a tough handicap to target in advance as any horse allotted a handicap mark of over 140 is ineligible to run and, remarkably, only 6lb covers all 20 runners this year so weight-based arguments really don’t come into it though I should mention two the last three winners carried top weight and Killala Quay holds that distinction this time despite being a maiden over fences but so was the 2008 winner and a maiden over fences has been placed for each of the last five years. Thomas Crapper has also yet to win over fences but loves this course and was second in the Martin Pipe last March only behind Don Poli no less and he runs off the same handicap mark as 12 months ago over hurdles. Monkey Kingdom (wears a first-time tongue tie) and the bottom weight, Keltus, are also maidens over fences. The latter is interesting having placed in last year’s Fred Winter and one of his higher weighted stablemates for the same owner that sponsors this race came out so he just crept into the bottom of the handicap. Although it is paramount not to be on a horse that has shown the Handicapper too much of its hand, the problem trainers face is that their horse must have shown a sufficiently high level of form to get into the race in the first place. Five of the last six winners won last time out and qualifiers this year are Leap Dearg who has won his last three starts in Ireland (Drumnea is the other Irish hope and they are a slightly disappointing 1-28), Horizontal Speed who broke his debut over fences at the fourth time of asking, Generous Ransom who won what is traditionally a strong novices’ handicap chase on Festival Trials Day that featured the 1-2 in this race two years ago (Irish Cavalier finished a close-up third and Stellar Notion was a disappointing seventh as favourite) and Gores Island who would become the oldest winner at the age of nine. In ten runnings to date, the winner has come from the first five in the betting on eight occasions. The top three positions are currently held by Generous Ransom, Thomas Crapper and Keltus and it’s a bun fight for the two other spots. Nicky Henderson has trained a winner and three seconds and he runs Golden Hoof and Cocktails At Dawn who both need decent ground according to their trainer. J P McManus likes to have a contender or two mapped out for this handicap from an early stage having had a winner and two second and he owns Bold Henry who won over 2m here at the November Meeting. Short List Generous Ransom Killala Quay (Thomas Crapper) Horizontal Speed Conclusion After GENEROUS RANSOM won the equivalent race to this on Festival Trials Day his trainer commented he would be even better on faster ground and he appeals most of the four last-time-out winners. That race threw up the 1-2 here two years ago and Irish Cavalier wasn’t beaten far so is also respected. Stellar Notion made too many mistakes as favourite but previously had Generous Ransom behind when winning at Kempton. Two of the last three top weights have won and KILLALA QUAY was fourth in last season’s Neptune only beaten 6l by Faugheen. Maidens over fences have notched a winner and five place positions recently so he could have the class to overcome that. THOMAS CRAPPER loves Cheltenham. That’s his big advantage and only Don Poli beat him in last season’s 24-runner Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. He was also a dual winner at Cheltenham over hurdles last season. He ran off 134 when second at last season’s Festival and has the same mark for this novice handicap chase after failing to win in five starts over fences but the first three of those were over an inadequate 2m when he ran well behind three Arkle hopes in Court Minstrel (beaten 3l at Cheltenham), Vibrato Valtat (beaten 1l at Warwick) and Three Kingdoms (beaten by 3l at Leicester). He didn’t finish in the first two places last time out but he was taking on a better class of horse in the Tingle Creek fifth and Josses Hill. He has a big each-way chance on his course profile. HORIZONTAL SPEED came good last time out after a slow start to his chasing career not unlike other winners and Hobbs won this race with a horse with a fairly similar profile in Copper Bleu.

[Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm]

Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Stan James Champion Hurdle Faugheen may just be too good for these but he is not a trends horse having not run since winning the Christmas Hurdle as just one winner since 1993 had not been a given a prep race in the same calendar year (Rock On Ruby) and just one of the last 23 winners of that Grade 1 race at Kempton to line up for the Champion Hurdle has won (Kribensis). Kempton and Cheltenham are like chalk and cheese so I can see why horses beaten in the Christmas Hurdle have a better record than the winner but, in Faugheen’s case, we know he devours the Cheltenham hill having impressed when winning the Neptune last season, which has been by far and away the best novice guide from the previous season. Hardy Eustace and Istabraq won both races and Rock On Ruby went one place better in the Champion Hurdle than in the Neptune. In addition, four Neptune winners since 1994 have placed in the Champion Hurdle. The New One also won a recognised trial with a poor record when he took the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December because of the last 25 winners of that race to run in the Champion Hurdle only Rooster Booster has completed the double. My view on that is because that race takes on the stiffer New Course over 2m1f whereas the Champion Hurdle is more of a speed test on the easier Old Course over 2m½f. More of a concern is whether last year’s third can hold his position in a tactical race on the downhill run where he lost 3l on the field last year. He does have one quirky stat in his favour though – the last four horses to finish third to come back and try again the next year all won. If you do like his chance, he is likely to start shorter on the Tote being a local horse so look for another betting medium. Hurricane Fly became only the second horse to regain his Champion Hurdle crown after losing it which was a big stat at the time and know we are asked to believe he can do it again after losing his title at the age of 11. A 22-times Grade 1 winner he may but I just can’t see it and especially if the ground does not ride genuinely soft. Leopardstown on testing ground in cat-and-mouse encounters are where he excels. Only two horses have won aged 10+ in the race’s history (first run in 1927) and they were defending title holders and no unplaced horse from the previous season’s renewal has won for 20 years. All this suggests he is unlikely to be a fairytale winner and is more of a bet for sentimental punters. The trends horse, if there is one, is Jezki mainly on the negative stats of his main rivals than anything else, who looks rock solid each-way if all eight stand their ground at 4/1+ so stakes are returned if he finishes placed so there will be much each-way thievery with the dead eight runners. Of the big four, he was the only one beaten last time out which used to be a big negative but three of the last six winners were beaten on their previous start including Jezki last year. Fourteen horses have won the race more than once. Having won what was widely accepted to be the best Champion Hurdle for many a year heading into last season’s race, he hasn’t really caught the imagination but it is no great shock he lost out to Hurricane Fly in tactical races on soft ground as what he wants is a proper gallop on a decent surface like when he won last year’s race. As much as I like Kitten Rock as an individual, the fact that five-year-olds are 1-92 since 1985 is hard to get away from even though six have hit the frame in the last eight years. Like Jezki, he is owned by J P McManus, so we have to also factor whether he might be running to aid the defending title holder. Probably not but I wouldn’t put my life on it. Arctic Fire was getting beaten in the same Grade 1s at Leopardstown last season as Jezki and was placed in last season’s Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle so will act on the course and fits the stat that 20 of the last 30 winners finished in the first four at last season’s Festival as do the big four and Vaniteux (third in the Supreme) but he still has 12lb to find on official figures and may well be ridden off the pace to pick up the pieces and try to snatch as much place prize money (down to sixth) as possible. He deserves to take his chance and represents the Fighting Fifth, a race which has featured three winners and four placed horses in the last seven years, but he does look very much Willie Mullins’ third string with Danny Mullins coming in for the ride. Vaniteux and Bertimont have both finished second to The New One this season and it is very hard seeing them find the necessary improvement to reach the frame. Henderson has won the race five times in the past but Vaniteux would be the stable second string if My Tent Or Yours wasn’t ruled out for the season in the autumn. Short List Jezki Arctic Fire Conclusion The pace angle is going to be crucial here and Faugheen’s chances will increase if Walsh can dictate from an early stage but having not run since Christmas, I am struggling to include him on a trends-based short list and especially as that win was in the Christmas Hurdle where winners have a poor record here. As Hurricane Fly will be the joint oldest winner if successful, he also can’t appear on any trends list. No horse is an ideal fit but JEZKI fits the trends best and will be hard to kick out of the first three so he makes obvious each-way appeal. The New One was an unfortunate third last year, which hasn’t been a bad place to finish at all on stats but he does appear to have a preference for the stiffer New Course and the record of the International Hurdle winner is not good. ARCTIC FIRE could be ridden for a place with the hope to get lucky and makes some each-way appeal racing on the fastest ground he has encountered for a while which he should appreciate. Placed at last season’s meeting and running in the right races in Ireland, he is no forlorn hope and has a fairly similar profile to Jezki last year before he won. Five-year-olds actually have a good strike rate for a place of late but an awful strike rate in terms of winning over the last three decades so maybe Kitten Rock, who is 4-4 this season and we don’t really know how good he is, could be a little value in the place-only market?

[Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Twelve horses have been declared, four of which representing Willie Mullins in search of his fifth Supreme winner and all four of his biggest owners have a runner; Douvan for Susannah and Rich Ricci, Shaneshill for Andrea and Graham Wylie, Alvisio Ville for J P McManus and Tell Us More for Gigginstown. In fact, the Irish outnumber the British by 7-5 with Bentelimar (Shay Barry), Sizing John (Henry De Bromhead) and Velvet Maker (Tony Martin) also declared as they bid to record a fourteenth success in the last 24 runnings, so this has comfortably been their best race at the Festival. Bentelimar has won his last two starts like 12 of the last 18 winners. Only Douvan, L’Ami Serge and Seedling have done likewise amongst his rivals and he could be a forgotten horse. Velvet Maker is a second-season hurdler who needed four starts to get off the mark over timber last time out. Bookmakers will want to take on Douvan and especially in the knowledge that short-priced favourites have a terrible record in the Supreme as only two of the last 11 horses to start at under 2/1 have won. It will be touch and go whether starts at under 2/1 given that the layers will want to get him and sentimental punters could also come for McCoy’s mount, Jollyallan, who he has chosen of Alvisio Ville who is ridden by David Casey. Alvisio Ville ran as if dropping back to 2m would suit him when he was third in the Deloitte but only two of the last 18 Supreme winners were beaten last time out which is also against Jollyallan, though he was beaten by a second-season hurdler in Garde La Victoire. Both are owned by J P McManus who has seen his colours twice carried to victory but he has also had as many as six runners-up, five ridden by McCoy, for whom this has not been his lucky race. Also beaten last time out was Shaneshill over 2m4f and last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper runner-up (4 of the last 12 winners ran well in that race 12 months earlier) has a second stat to defy as 17 of the last 20 winners ran in the last 45 days and that defeat was before Christmas which only Captain Cee Bee of recent winners has managed to overcome. Shaneshill was Neptune bound before Nichols Canyon in the same ownership won the Deloitte and needs to jump quicker. Tell Us More was also beaten last time out over 2m4f in a Grade 1 but shaped like a drop back to 2m would suit him having made most and jumped slickly until he was passed on the run-in by Mckinley. Sizing John has also not run this year since causing an upset in a weak Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas having previously been slammed 12l by Douvan and that’s a stat I don’t like. Similarly, Seedling has not run for 88 days which is also longer than ideal. Only one horse to have run on the Flat has finished in the first three in the last seven years which is against Qewy who won the same novice hurdle at Newbury that Shadow Leader and Al Ferof took before they won the Supreme. Seedling also won a race that has had a bearing on the Supreme when beating Some Plan under a double penalty at the December Meeting but he has not run since. Some Plan then franked the form with an easy win in the Scottish Supreme Trial and could be the front runner in a race where they have a good record. The main home hope, however, looks to be L’Ami Serge who despite being 0-6 in France, has seriously impressed with three wins for Nicky Henderson including the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle on softer ground than he enjoys for a horse who showed a good turn of foot to win at Ascot. Henderson may not have trained the winner since Flown in 1992 but he has had as many as nine top-four finishers in the last eight years alone so he has a strong each-way look about him even if he has been off the course since the first week in January. He is very experienced so his trainer didn’t feel the need to give him a prep race. Short List Bentelimar L’Ami Serge Douvan Conclusion It’s a tricky one with DOUVAN because if he starts under 2/1 the stats are against him but he has a heck of a lot in his favour otherwise and bookmakers will want to get him so he might start at 2/1 or bigger. Therefore he makes the short list as he is the only one of the Mullins quartet to have won last time out like all but two of the last 18 winners as he bids to give his trainer a fifth win in the race. Nicky Henderson’s place record suggests that we have to give L’AMI SERGE serious each-way consideration and, like Douvan, he is just one of four horses in the line up to have won his last two starts like 12 of the last 18 winners. Many will view him as an each-way steal at around 5/1. Another horse to win his last two starts is BENTELIMAR who looks the best overall each-way value of the race. He is as tough as they come and would be a much shorter price if trained by a more fashionable stable than that of Shay Barry. Tell Us More appeals most of the horses beaten last time out dropping back to 2m and the other each-way alternative to the big two.

[Mares' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:00pm]

Re: Mares' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:00pm OLBG Mares Hurdle Race trends can be thrown out of the window for this race with Quevega winning it for the last six years, five of which on her seasonal debut, so there are any to talk of, so this is more of a form guide. Short List Polly Peachum Annie Power Conclusion There is an assumption that ANNIE POWER will carry on where Quevega left off for Willie Mullins but it was always the intention to start off that six-time winner in this race for the last five of her wins in this race whereas Annie Power makes her seasonal debut here off the back of a setback so this is no penalty kick. Especially as her connections also want to take her to Aintree and Punchestown and I don’t think they had Quevega at full concert pitch when she won the last three runnings of the race so the chances of Annie Power being 100% have to be questioned. Of course she has to be on any form-based short list as she is 7lb clear on official ratings but does that entitle her to be so far clear of Polly Peachum in the betting and especially if she is not fully fit? The positive vibes for POLLY PEACHUM have been increasing over the last week and if you are prepared to forgive her a poor run over 3m at Kempton in November when we last saw her, she enters this race as the obvious best home hope and a serious each-way consideration. She also easily beat last year’s third, L’Unique, at Cheltenham in April so we know she handles the course and will appreciate spring ground if that proves to be the case. On a line through L’Unique, she has the beating of last season’s second, Glens Melody, and official ratings back that up to the tune of as much as 5lb but she is the bigger price of the pair. L’Unique has improved in the spring for the last two years so don’t be shocked to see her leave this season’s form behind. The Pirate’s Queen joins L’Unique in the race for Alan King and may be best of the novices having beaten Bitofapuzzle, who looks more at home over 3m, before Christmas. The latter-named is closely matched with Carole’s Spirit on Ascot from but the Robert Walford-trained mare also looks like she would prefer a longer trip. First-time blinkers is therefore probably a good idea to sharpen her up, and her jumping as she flew out to the right far too often at Ascot when not beaten far trying to give Bitofapuzzle 5lb.

[Arkle Challenge Trophy > Tuesday March 10th @ 2:05pm]

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy > Tuesday March 10th @ 2:05pm Racing Post Arkle Trophy A healthy-sized field of 11 compared to recent seasons and even more so when we consider that Un De Sceaux would probably be sent off Champion Chase favourite if he headed down that route after running to a rating that would have won him every Arkle in the last 20 years except for Sprinter Sacre’s when he blitzed two class acts in the Irish Arkle. He wasn’t as headstrong on that occasion but this atmosphere on his first run at Cheltenham will be unlike anything he has faced before and the fact remains no horse has made all since 1980 though Azertyuyiop led from the third obstacle. Remarkably, Ruby Walsh has also not ridden a winner over fences at the Festival since Kauto Star took his second Gold Cup six years ago. The big stat in his favour is that five winners since 2000 were the best hurdler in the race and he is comfortably that. Dunraven Storm would be the oldest ever Arkle winner if he can win at the age of ten so that looks highly unlikely and I don’t like the absence of 94 days for Court Minstrel. As with the other Grade 1 novice events at the Festival, my personal preference irrespective of trends is that I much prefer to side with a contender that has been given a prep run, to get the freshness out of their system ahead of the day that really matters more than anything. Only Simonsig and Sizing Europe of Arkle winners since 1997 had not run during the same calendar year. Just three of the last 23 winners were older than seven and Court Minstrel is eight as is Sgt Reckless. Seven of the last 12 winners had won at Cheltenham before (six in pattern races) but, purely looking at previous Cheltenham Festival form, although nine of the last 11 winners had been successful or finished placed at this meeting in the past is a strong steer in its own right, arguably even more interesting is that five of those 11 winners had finished in the first four in a novice hurdle at this meeting the previous season and that brings in the Supreme second and fourth, Josses Hill and Sgt Reckless. Whether Josses Hill jumps well enough and whether Sgt Reckless has enough chasing experience are the main sticking points with this pair. Josses Hill might jump better in a championship race at a strong pace but he might be even worse, who knows, but his trainer has won this race five times before. Sgt Reckless has only had one chase start, though that didn’t stop the Pond House-trained winners, Well Chief and Western Warhorse. Talking of Pond House and David Pipe runs Sail By The Sea for last year’s winning owner who has one more start over fences and impressed at Chepstow last time out. Vibrato Valtat has been running in all the right races in Britain placing in the November Novices’ Chase before winning the Henry VIII, Wayward Lad and Kingmaker, and they are the best British trials. An improved horse since a wind operation, he is officially only 4lb behind Un De Sceaux on British ratings and looks the pick of the British defence to give Paul Nicholls a third win in the Arkle. He beat Three Kingdoms more cosily than the margin suggested at Kempton and he should hold McCoy’s mount on that running. Vibrato Valtat was rated only 138 over hurdles though and just two of the last 15 winners were not rated as high as 142 over timber. Gods Own is a second-season novice who won the Haldon Gold Cup back in the autumn but lost his way in two subsequent runs on soft ground. He has since been freshened up and will enjoy the better surface. In addition to Un De Sceaux, the Irish send over Clarcam and Smashing who have both been well beaten by the sure-fire odds-on favourite already this season. Clarcam had previously won a Grade 1 by 17l at Leopardstown but he had an 11lb age allowance that day which is now totally wiped out. Smashing paid the price for trying to live with Un De Sceaux last time and has impressed in victory since and it interesting they run him rather than Sizing Granite who would have had place claims. Short List Josses Hill (Vibrato Valtat) (Sgt Reckless) Conclusion Nicky Henderson’s superb record in the race and having placed in the Supreme last year mean that JOSSES HILL earns a place on a trends-based short list but if you back him you might want to watch from behind the sofa when he approaches an obstacle. VIBRATO VALTAT doesn’t have the hurdles rating but other than that he has the right credentials to run a big race having improved from run to run this season in all the right races and for a stable with two wins in the race and he looks a solid each-way alternative if you don’t fancy the short odds about Un De Sceaux. The top rated hurdler in the race Un De Sceaux may be, but front running is hard to pull off in this race and he has fallen in one of his three chase starts and might be better bullying opposition on flat tracks. Being a five-year-old with no allowance makes it hard to select Clarcam in a trends shortlist but he is a dependable, professional horse with a sound jumping technique that might be ridden for a place so he is of place-only interest. SGT RECKLESS was fourth in last season’s Supreme and last year’s Arkle winner won off the back of just one chase start so it can be done so he completes the short list having looked a good jumper in that one win at Uttoxeter. The faster the ground, the better his chance.

[Festival Handicap Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 2:40pm]

Re: Festival Handicap Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 2:40pm Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase A maximum field of 24 have been declared and we will start with some negative trends to help whittle that down to a more manageable starting point kicking off with the fact that horses aged 11+ are 0-47 since 1997 with just two placing so Cape Tribulation has it to do on that statistic thought it is worth noting Malcolm Jefferson’s horses are flying right now. This hasn’t been Paul Nicholls’ race being 0-17 and the fact that his top weight, Black Thunder, is rated 155 and there has been no winner rated over 150 since 1983 means he has it all to do. No Hennessy representative has won for 25 years which is a big surprise given it is the second most important staying handicap chase of the season and that is the main statistical sticking point against the well-fancied The Druids Nephew, though he did prep in the Cleeve Hurdle like two of the last six winners. He finished seventh at Newbury which came quickly enough after finishing second to the Gold Cup-bound Sam Winner here at the November Meeting. Annacotty pulled up in the Hennessy but has since won the 2m5f handicap here on Trials Day. What A Warrior also pulled up in the Hennessy and has not run since but Monbeg Dude fared a lot better in fourth. However, the Grand National is his chief objective. It had been threatening to happen for a while but the 143 barrier was finally breached last season. I am referring to the official BHA ratings of winners as prior to Holywell being successful off a handicap mark of 145 last year as the previous 14 winners were officially rated no higher than 143 entering the race. Five of the last eight winners were rated between 142-145 so that’s the kind of ballpark figure I am inclined to look at first and brings in No Planning (145), Grand Jesture (143) and Ned Stark (143). Cape Tribulation, Monbeg Dude and What A Warrior are the other three to fall into this bracket but have it to do on stats mentioned earlier. Mendip Express (148) and Theatre Guide (147) might just be a little too high. Ned Stark has a lot going for him as I will outline in the conclusion not least his trainer’s fine record in the race of two wins and others to run well and also the fact he is a novice like four of the last 11 winners. No Planning has won five of his 15 chase starts but looks to have lost his way since the turn of the year beaten 25l and 30l in his two starts. Grand Jesture is sent over from Ireland by Henry De Bromhead and the Irish have won this race twice this century from limited runners. He too was disappointing on his last start over Christmas but he is a bit of a character and open to improvement on his seventh chase start. Gallant Oscar looks like being the most fancied Irish runner for Tony Martin who won this race with Dun Doire having been sent off favourite for Djakadam’s Thyestes Chase but he was fourth beaten 28l. Dun Doire also contested (and won) the Thyestes for Martin before he won here. Azure Fly off bottom weight and Smart Freddy who has won two of his three chase starts for Ben Pauling who is fast making a name for himself in the training ranks are the other two novices in addition to Ned Stark. Jonjo O’Neill won this handicap for a third time last season and is represented by Lost Legend and Dursey Sound. The first-named looks the number one with Richie McLernon in the saddle but he is quite exposed having his fifteenth chase start. Dursey Sound has been well beaten on his last four starts but he is owned by J P McManus who has owned three winners of this race since 2002 and has dropped 7lb as a consequence so it wouldn’t be the greatest shock to see him re-find his best form. This has been a good race for the market leaders with ten of the last 14 winners starting in the first four in the betting and the first three positions look set to be Pendra, The Druid’s Nephew and Ned Stark. Pendra is the McManus number one and will be well backed under McCoy. Third in the novice handicap chase on this day last year, he has had a wind operation since he last ran at the Hennessy Meeting. Eight of the last 17 winners had placed at the Festival before so he fits that profile as does Cape Tribulation (won a Coral Cup). Seven of the last 12 winners won last time out which is tick for only Ned Stark, Annacotty and Gevrey Chambertin. The latter is trained by Dvaid Pipe who won this with An Accordion and has saddled The Package to be placed three times. Short List Ned Stark Pendra Gallant Oscar Gevrey Chambertin Dursey Sound Conclusion Alan King won this race with Fork Lightning as a novice and was going to win it with another until Bensalem fell two out off 143 and then he made amends 12 months later off the same mark. NED STARK will also race on 143 this year and that is the right kind of rating as five of the last eight winners ran off between 142-145. He is a good jumper for a novice as he showed winning at the Hennessy Meeting and the Grade 2 Towton Chase which I thought he won a shade cosily and took to the course well in the Dipper over an inadequate trip in between and also represents novices and horses in the first four in the betting which is also the right kind of profile. PENDRA has plenty going for him too but the concern regards value is he might be over-bet being McCoy’s mount at his last Festival and don’t rule out DURSEY SOUND for the same owner who has won this race three times at a much bigger price who is one of two Jonjo O’Neill representatives and he is a trainer who targets this race and he might be the each-way value of the race. GEVREY CHAMBERTIN has had his handicap mark protected by David Pipe since he won at the Hennessy Meeting and is interesting for this stable who target the handicaps at this meeting and have a good record in this staying handicap chase. The horse he beat into second that day was Kaki De La Pree who then finished second to Ned Stark in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase. GALLANT OSCAR ran in the Thyestes as did Dun Doire before he won this race also for Tony Martin in 2006. He was a bit disappointing but it was notable how well backed he was that day to beat Djakadam so if that run can be forgiven, he is a big player here on just his seventh chase start.

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday March 7th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday March 7th 2.35PM SANDOWN – THE WILLIAM HILL – SUPREME GUARANTEED RETURN OFFER HANDICAP CHASE MOSSPARK was a talented hurdler last season, but has failed to progress over fences. He has shown promise though and a rating of 128 looks fair. I have not lost faith in him and with all three wins over hurdles occurring on right handed tracks, Sandown could suit. He ran a fair enough race last time at Cheltenham and this less competitive field, I am happy to give him one more chance. 3.10PM SANDOWN – THE WILLIAM HILL IMPERIAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE BIDOUREY is unbeaten over hurdles, will handle the ground and was a very impressive winner over the course and distance last time out. All in all he has a lot going for him and it could be that the handicapper has under-estimated him. I really like the look of his profile, having had the minimum three starts over hurdles and winning so well last time out and the Pipe yard have a history of priming a horse to run very well in this race. At a bigger price I am going to take a chance on WEST WIZARD as I know the Nicky Henderson yard rated him very highly at the start of last season and it could be that a race like this will see him unleash his full potential. A fast pace on soft ground could be just what he needs. He has finished second on all three starts over hurdles so far, but as a result, he has been allotted a rating of just 132 and that could be very generous.