[Flat Racing 19th April]

Re: Flat Racing 19th April 7.00 bath - march 13/2 @ w/hill Unexposed for Marco Botti; progressive 5f form at three and unlucky not to beat decent one in Listed event at Sandown in June (good); race didn't go her way when good third to Ladies Are Forever over 6f at York next time and below par final start but interesting prospect for new yard.

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday April 12th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday April 12th 2:40 Ayr – QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle He has to concede lumps of weight, but MY TENT OR YOURS is a class act and should win. The track and ground should suit and McCoy is in the saddle, so things are looking good. He has a hood applied which may also help, but he has looked top class anyway on all three starts this season and comes into the race in good form after a fine run to finish second in the Champion Hurdle. 3:15 Ayr – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase MANYRIVERSTOCROSS has gained plenty of experience against the novices to entitle him to take on handicap company and he goes there with a live chance. He battled really well last time out at Ascot and also ran well against Oscar Whisky in a Grade One contest. He has a touch of class and with the Alan King yard in good form, he should run well. 3:50 Ayr – Scottish Grand National Mendip Express strikes me as an ideal candidate for this as I am convinced that he will stay and he has an improving profile along with a really good win to run ratio. He looked very good early in the season, winning his first three chases under rules, having won his last six starts in points. His connections are bullish about his chances and ground conditions should suit much more than when he ran below form last time out. My only concern with him is that there may be a better handicapped horse in the field and that could be MERRY KING. It is worth remembering that he was beaten in a very close finish with Rolling Aces as a novice, receiving just two pounds and that horse is now rated 156, so 140 for Merry King is fair. He also ran well off that rating to finish fifth in the Hennessy and he promises to be well suited to this trip on drying ground, so at odds of 20/1, he is worth chancing.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Tom Segal has selected his ante post tip for 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on 3 May: Noozhoh Canarias 1pt win at 25-1. Tom Segal's got 2 ante post picks for the 1000 Guineas on 4 May Lucky Kristale 1pt win at 14-1 Rizeena 1pt win at 8-1.

[Bet help]

Re: Bet help i believe it gets worked out as a winning treble

[National Hunt - Saturday - 05 April 2014]

Re: National Hunt - Saturday - 05 April 2014 1:30 Pertemps Network Mersey Novices’ Hurdle Ubak’s shock 22/1 success last year when winning his first race at the eighth time of asking aside, this has been a terrific race for punters as 12 of the last 16 winners started favourite or second-favourite. Promoted to Grade 1 status for the first time this year but I don’t believe there are too many, if any, Grade 1 horses in its first running since its promotion. Of the last 17 winners, 12 recorded a top-seven finish at the Cheltenham Festival and the three qualifiers on that score are the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winner, Lac Fontana, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle fifth, Wilde Blue Yonder, and the Coral Cup fifth, Dell’ Arca. Surprisingly given this race is just 1f shy of the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle, it has attracted no runners from that race which makes what was already not the strongest of trends races even less so as that was the best guide. Wilde Blue Yonder steps up in trip having run well to finish fifth in the Supreme (and the second and fourth dominated the Top Novices’ Hurdle on the opening race of Day 2 so that form has already been franked) and six of the last 16 Mersey Hurdle winners were stepping up to 2m4f for the first time. In addition, top-six finishers in the Supreme have a pretty good record with four winners since 2000. So what of the five winners since 1996 who failed to record a top-seven finish at the Cheltenham Festival? It wasn’t a case of that quintet failing badly at Cheltenham as their connections elected to bypass the Cheltenham Festival altogether. In other words, horses that did not figure at Cheltenham are worth taking on such as Un Ace and Splash Of Ginge (previously won the Betfair Hurdle) who were eighth and fifteenth respectively in the Supreme. I may be a little unfair on Un Ace though as just six lengths covered horses that finished between second and twelfth in the Supreme. Nicky Henderson has trained two winners and a second in the last three years and he runs Oscar Hoof and Volnay De Thaix, but unlike his three previous runners that fared so well, this pair bypassed Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls can scarcely be accused of having committed legions of runners in pursuit of the prize but his record stands at three winners from eight runners which catches the eye and is a boost for supporters of Lac Fontana. Sea Lord returns following an absence of 139 days but horses off the course for longer than 40 days have won once since 1998. He is also a front runner (only Best Mate has made all since 1994) and he is also older than ideal being a seven-year-old. Six-year-olds dominated the 2012 running but a 1-2 for five-year-olds 12 months ago was more in line with recent renewals as they also posted a 1-2 in 2011 and a 1-2-3 in 2010, whilst a further four other five-year-olds have prevailed since the start of the century. Shortlist Wilde Blue Yonder Lac Fontana Dell’ Arca Conclusion Given that they are both top-seven finishers at the Cheltenham Festival who are stepping up in trip, Wilde Blue Younder and Lac Fontana appeal most. Four top-six finishers in the Supreme have won since the turn of the century which is a positive for Wilde Blue Yonder (Supreme form already franked) whilst the County Hurdle winner, Lac Fontana, represents Paul Nicholls who has a good record in this race, especially with horses stepping up in trip. Both are also five-year-olds and they have the best record as is Dell’ Arca who has been in great form in competitive handicaps this season and also recorded a top-six finish at Cheltenham when upped to this kind of trip in the Coral Cup. Nicky Henderson has a good record of late in this race but unlike his recent winners, his pair of Volnay De Thaix and Oscar Hoof did not run at Cheltenham. Kayf Moss, Kilcooley and Monkey Kingdom all arrive here after winning more than once recently at a much lower level and will need to step up. 2:05 Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase As usual a small but select field for this Grade 1 race. I don’t think this has been the best season for 2m novice chasers by a long chalk so maybe the strong trend of looking to Arkle runners is under pressure this year? As many as 17 of the last 19 Maghull winners contested that two-mile novice chase championship at the Cheltenham Festival if we exclude 2001 when Cheltenham was abandoned due to the outbreak of Foot And Mouth but, that said, those two winners have come in the last four years so perhaps this trend is not quite as strong as it first appears. Trifolium (3rd) and Ted Veale (fell two out when behind and beaten) represent the Arkle this season and, with regards to Trifolium, three Arkle thirds have won this race since 2000. The Kingmaker Novices’ Chase won by Balder Succes run at Warwick in February has proven significant as four of its last six winners which then took their chance in here won, the latest being Finian’s Rainbow three years ago. Hinterland won the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) but we have to go back to Direct Route during the 1997/98 season to find the last winner to complete the double. Heading into last year’s renewal, the previous 15 winners could be found in the first three in the betting (and the last ten in the first two) so Special Tiara winning as the 28/1 outsider of six was a kick in the teeth to most punters. Last season’s (I’m inclined to call it ‘freak’) result aside, to further underline just what a massive race this is for the leading fancies, the first two in the betting have finished first or second (in either order) in eight of the last ten runnings and on the other occasion it was the favourite and third-favourite that fought it out. As the Mildmay Chase Course suits fluent, handy types with the class to hold a good pitch, I am not surprised that prominently-ridden horses have a strong record and 14 of the last 15 winners of Maghull raced handily and it was only one of the top-ten two-mile chasing greats in Well Chief who was given a successful hold-up ride in the last 15 years. I think we can expect Next Sensation to lead having shot clear in the Grand Annual and he may well have won (only beaten 1¾ lengths) if he was not ridden quite so aggressively. Balder Success, Trifolium and Moscow Mannon (for the Henry de Bromhead stable that caused a big upset in this race last year giving the Irish their first win in 24 years) also like to race close to the pace but I would expect Ted Veale, Hinterland and Simply Ned to be held up. Paul Nicholls was unrepresented last season but having saddled five winners and seven runners-up from 18 runners since 1999, his followers will be keen to back Hinterland who returns to taking on fellow novices having fallen four out when going okay in the Champion Chase last time out. He is a French-bred like seven of the last 14 winners as are Balder Succes and Trifolium. Shortlist Trifolium Balder Succes Conclusion As the Arkle has been the key guide by a massive amount over the last two decades then Trifolium has to be respected attempting to become the fourth third-place finisher to go two places better here since the turn of the century but, as two of the last four winners bypassed the Arkle, it is not as strong a trend as it used to be. He is certainly favoured over the other Arkle runner, Ted Veale, who is still a maiden over fences. French-breds have a fine record in this race so that is another positive for Trifolium as it is for Balder Succes who won the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick two starts ago which has been an excellent pointer with four of its last six winners to run here winning. Slick jumping is key in novice chases at flat Warwick where the fences come at horsesquickly so that is not too dissimilar from Aintree so I can see why Kingnmaker winners have such a fine Maghull record. Being French-bred and representing Paul Nicholls, a good case can also be argued for Hinterland but he has not contested any of the key guides and arrives here off a fall and is a hold-up horse in a race where there has been only one held-up winner in the last 15 years. Next Sensation looks likely to lead but the shortlisted pair like to track the leader in their races so hopefully won’t give him as much rope as when he almost won the Grand Annual. 2:50 Silver Cross Stayers’ Hurdle (Liverpool Hurdle) Just seven runners following the surprise non-declaration of the Ladbrokes World Hurdle winner, More Of That, so I imagine far more connections of the original six-day entries are wishing they went through fully their entry now. The World Hurdle is still very well represented however as the third and fourth, At Fishers Cross and Zarkandar, take their chance and both horses also won at this three-day meeting last season, as does Salubrious who flopped at Cheltenham and Paul Nicholls has turned to a first-time hood for him. In ten runnings of this race at Aintree since it was switched from Ascot, it has been World Hurdle form and previous winners or runners-up at this meeting all the way so the shortlist quickly picks itself. Nine of the ten winners ran in the World Hurdle where At Fishers Cross ran a solid third beating Zarkandar by two lengths who finished well in fourth having been held up to stay the trip so I would expect last season’s Aintree Hurdle winner not to give the leaders as much rope this time now that connections know he stays three miles. Blinkers are back on Zarkandar today (wore no headgear at Cheltenham) as they were for the first time over hurdles when he beat The New One under a great front running ride in last season’s Aintree Hurdle. All ten winners had won or finished second at this meeting before which is therefore also a big plus for At Fishers Cross who easily won last season’s Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. As all ten winners also started in the first three in the betting and at no bigger than 11/2, that is all the more reason to ration your thoughts to just this pair. The Knoxs is surely out of his class but the other three runners all have claims on their bst form as Whisper won the Coral Cup last time out under a big weight and the highest-ever rating carried to victory in that race, Thousand Stars has been placed in the last three Aintree Hurdles and Melodic Rendezvous keeps on winning pattern races but was predictably taken off his feet over 2m on decent ground in the Champion Hurdle. This is a huge step up in distance for Melodic Rendezvous though as the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f would have been a more obvious target so what is against him here is that all ten winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race and been successful over a minimum of 2m6f. That stat is also against Whisper. Not so Thousand Stars who has twice won the French Champion Hurdle over 3m2f but he whether he is the same horse now I have serious doubts. Shortlist At Fishers Cross Zarkandar Conclusion This is very straightforward in terms of a shortlist as all ten winners started in the first three in the betting and had won or finished at this meeting before and nine of those ran in the World Hurdle so take your pick between At Fishers Cross and Zarkandar with just two lengths separating the pair at Cheltenham. The blinkers back on will tempt many into backing Zarkandar and he will also surely be ridden with a view that he stays this time unlike in the World Hurdle so I can see that angle if you fancy him to reverse placings. However, I thought At Fishers Cross was ridden to win that race committing early enough so therefore was more vulnerable to fall away but he still finished ahead of Zarkandar and, to my eyes, despite the fact he won the Albert Bartlett last season, the best At Fishers Cross looked all that season in his six wins was when winning at this meeting last April so I prefer him of the pair. Salubrious is far better than he showed at Cheltenham and a first-time hood makes him interesting and there is not a lot wrong with his 2¼ lengths’ second to More Of That back in December so he would be the one that worries me most of the remainder as time appears to have caught up to Thousand Stars to an extent, there are big stamina doubts surrounding Melodic Rendezvous and Whisper steps up from handicaps for Nicky Henderson whose record in this race is not the best. 3:25 Betfred TV Handicap Chase This wouldn’t be the strongest of trends races. The last two winners had won at this three-day meeting the previous season and the 2012 winner, Saint Are, runs here again rather than the Grand National in which he was ninth last year and was entered again, and he is far more at home here than at undulating Cheltenham having also won the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) at this fixture so I wouldn’t read much into his moderate effort at the Cheltenham Festival. There is nobody better in the business when it comes to stayers than Jonjo O’Neill and he has prepared four winners of this staying handicap chase in the last 14 years from just seven runners. Interestingly, he runs Johns Spirit again as this season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup winner was his representative in this race last year as a novice when he finished third. He is off a 15lb higher mark this season but he has certainly earned that. Philip Hobbs went close several times before hitting the target with From Dawn To Dusk and he runs Duke Of Lucca. Nine of the last 17 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival of which three of the last seven contested the Byrne Group Plate over 2m4f. Plate representatives this season are Johns Spirit (4th) and Wetak (9th). With three of the last eight winners being novices, two of which bolted up by 15 lengths and 16 lengths, we should certainly be looking very closely at Gullinbursti (in a first-time visor), Victor Hewgo, Minella For Value and Kian’s Delight. Fifteen of the last 17 winners were aged nine or younger so Carruthers, Tranquil Sea and Your Busy would not be for me. Seven of the last ten winners have raced prominently from the outset so, like with so many races on the Mildmay Course over fences, a sound jumper that races up with the pace is ideal. Shortlist Johns Spirit Saint Are Kian’s Delight Unioniste Conclusion Given Jonjo O’Neill’s sparkling record in this race and the fact the Byrne Group Plate is a good guide, then last season’s third and this season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Johns Spirit, has to have an excellent chance having finished fourth in the Plate, even if his hold-up running style is not ideally suited to the Mildmay Chase Course. Previous form in this race has also been important of late which is in his favour in addition to the 2012 winner, Saint Are, who adores Aintree and it would be no surprise if he has been trained for this race for a long time and he is off an 8lb lower mark than when he took this handicap two years ago so he has to have a fantastic each-way chance. He also likes to race prominently and ran at the Cheltenham Festival which are two more positives. Given the excellent record of novices and how well Peter Bowen fares in general at Aintree, Kian’s Delight off bottom weight appeals most of their four contenders despite an absence of 168 days. In Bowen’s case, I would treat that absence as a positive. As three top weights have won in the last 16 years and Unioniste is 2-2 at Aintree, he receives the final vote for the Nicholls yard that won this race with Sleeping Night. 4:15 Crabbie’s Grand National Given the emphasis is again firmly based on stamina due to the modifications, therefore the classier horses could start to struggle again carrying a biggish weight. Using another example for admittedly just one year, only one horse carrying over 11st could finish in the first 11 places from 13 to take their chance. On that basis, am I prepared to let the top six in the weights pass without an interest; Tidal Bay (11st 10lb), Long Run (11st 9lb), Hunt Ball (11st 8lb), Triolo D’Alene (11st 6lb), Rocky Creek (11st 5lb) and Quito De La Roque (11st 1lb). Sticking with the stamina argument, and I do believe that the modifications to the fences makes this a bigger test of stamina than before (last season’s 1-2-3-4-5 had all placed in an Aintree, Scottish, Welsh or Irish National before) so, allied to the fact that we have to go back to Gay Trip in 1970 to find the last winner yet to win over at least 3m, how can we seriously consider the likes of last season’s Topham second and third, Walkon and Last Time D’Albain? This also means Hunt Ball has a second negative to overcome. Buckers Bridge won a point-to-point on his debut over 3m but has only once tried 3m+ since when third behind the Gold Cup runner-up, On His Own, last time out. Regards age, as no teenager has won since 1923 and none have placed since 1969, Tidal Bay would be an extraordinary winner off top weight especially as he is also a hold-up horse and prominent racers have a big edge over the Grand National fences. Also aged 13 is Swing Bill who has squeezed into the race as bottom weight for his new owner, the new race sponsor, who has completed this course five times in six starts. At the other end of the scale no horse aged younger than eight has won since 1940 and none have placed since 1971 plus, since 1992, only eight of their 44 contenders have even finished so that is another negative for the Topham and Hennessy winner, Triolo D’Alene, to overcome as it is for his fellow seven-year-old, Kruzhlinin. I am not mad keen on eight-year-olds either as experience is key in the Grand National and just one eight-year-old has won in the last 20 years. Again, stamina is part reason for this as I believe that to be more likely to be found in older horses and using last year’s race as an example again, remarkably, five of the first six horses past the post were aged 11+ after the modifications which placed more emphasis on stamina. Therefore, I am happy to also overlook eight-year-olds such as Double Seven (under AP McCoy), Buckers Bridge, Our Father, Vintage Star, Twirling Magnet (officially a novice and no such winner since 1958) and Vesper Bell (fell at the first in the Becher Chase). Rocky Creek therefore also has a second negative trend to overcome. Another profile I am no fan of is arriving here after a notable break. A total of 56 days had passed since Neptune Collonges before he won meaning that he became the first Grand National since Aldaniti in 1981 to have been off the course for over 50 days. In the whole scheme of things six days is neither here nor there, the point I am trying to get across is that a fairly recent run is important and it also doesn’t have to be a good one. Therefore any of Battle Group (105 days off), Prince Du Beauchene (79 days off), The Rainbow Hunter (70 days off), Vesper Bell (72 days off), Rose Of The Moon (74 days off) or Alvarado (94 days off) would be an unusual winner in this respect. Cheltenham Festival winners from the same season don’t have a good record either with just one winning since 1961. That said, I wouldn’t be making that argument had Sunnyhillboy (won Kim Muir on previous start) won by a flared nostril rather than being beaten by a flared nostril two years ago. Balthazar King won the Cross Country Handicap at Cheltenham three weeks ago so he fails on this stat but, more worryingly than that, he faded very quickly after just a circuit in last season’s race. Incidentally, both Balthazar King and the third in that Cross Country Chase, Big Shu, are officially 9lb and 7lb well in after their Cheltenham runs and three of the last seven Grand National winners were at least 5lb well in. Teaforthree may well start favourite after finishing third last year and racing off a 2lb lower mark this time despite running well at Ascot and in the Gold Cup for a long way so it is not difficult to see why. However, of the last 69 win-or-placed Grand National runners from the previous year to run 12 months later, only Amberleigh House has won. The majority get round (45 of those 69 did so) and ten of the placed horses finished placed again so I would argue that he is more of a place-only bet than a win or each-way bet. Given the fence modifications I am not sure this final negative stat holds huge weight but I will list it anyway – 15 of the last 17 winners had no more than two falls/unseats to their name. One of those was Auroras Encore last year to underline the caution of following this trend too literally but, for the record, horses with 3+ falls/unseats are Colbert Station (three in his last six starts so I do feel it is his relevant in his case), Battle Group (four falls/unseats and two refusals), The Rainbow Hunter and Golan Way (two falls but I don’t like the two refusals much – Alvarado has also refused twice) Once the negative trends have been applied that leaves 15 horses for closer inspection regards positive trends; Wayward Prince, Mr Moonshine, Across The Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Monbeg Dude, Big Shu, Burton Port, Mountainous, Chance Du Roy, Hawkes Point, Pineau De Re, The Package, Raz De Maree, Shakalakaboomboom and One In A Milan. In my Aintree book, I have star-rated horses aged in double figures as the best trend as they have won 16 times in the last 24 runnings so, on that basis, I will let Monbeg Dude, Big Shu, Mountainous, Hawkes Point, Raz De Maree (first-time visor) and One In A Milan (first-time visor) go at this stage being nine-year-olds leaving a new shortlist of nine. Of the nine horses left, I have gone with the six that meet the most of the other six relevant positive trends I have listed which are (1) 11 of the last 17 winners had won or placed in another National (Lion Na Bearnai won the 2012 Irish National and, to a lesser extent, Pineau De Re won the 2013 Ulster National), (2) 8 of the last 11 winners had run over hurdles earlier in the season (Burton Port, Pineau De Re, Wayward Prince, Across The Bay and Shakalakaboomboom), (3) Irish-trained horses have won 7 of the last 15 runnings (Lion Na Bearnai), (4) 12 of the last 15 winners were Irish-bred (Mr Moonshine, Across The Bay, Lion N Bearnia, Burton Port and Shakalakaboom), (5) 5 of the last 13 winners were unplaced in last year’s race (Mr Moonshine and Across The Bay and (6) prominent racers are favoured (Shakalakaboomboom, Mr Moonshine, Across The Bay (though been held up last twice)). Shortlist Lion Na Bearnai Shakalakaboomboom Mr Moonshine Across The Bay Burton Port Pineau De Re Conclusion I liked Chance Du Roy and The Rainbow Hunter at each-way pops before I went through all the trends with a fine toothcomb and the first-named just narrowly misses out not having as many positive trends having survived all the negative trends as the sextet listed, though both horses have my main three-pronged profile of being aged in double figures racing off a nice weight and being in form so I couldn’t put you off either. Lion Na Bearnai fits the trends best as he is proven in a National, stays well, being 12 is no negative for this race, he is Irish-trained and bred, jumps well, has a nice weight and the man of the moment and top horseman (often what you need in this race more than a jockey), Davy Russell, has been booked. Lion Na Bearnai cused a 33/1 shock when winning the Ladbrokes Irish Grand National two springs ago so he should have the stamina but he found life tough the following season off a higher handicap mark struggling in both the Hennessy Gold Cup and Coral Scottish Grand National (three of the last five Grand National winners ran in that Ayr marathon 50 weeks earlier) but we know he is in good heart this season having won at Fairyhouse in February before struggling in a Grade 2 chase last time. For a twelve-year-old he can not be accused of burn out having had just 15 chase starts and he looks good each-way value at around 33/1. Shakalakaboomboom was backed into joint-favouritism two years ago and jumped for fun up front until the home turn and then got tired when just an eight-year-old. He missed last season with injury and now races off an 8lb lower mark so is handicapped to go close off a low weight and being an older and stronger horse. Mr Moonshine represents the Auroras Encore connections of owner/trainer/jockey and is no forlorn hope to give them a second victory. He has course experience having finished a close-up third in the Becher Chase beaten 2¾ lengths by Chance Du Roy. He is 8lb worse off with the winner here but he has won twice since that day and ran a decent trial at Kelso last time out when second in the same race in which Auroras Encore was unplaced in. He was pulled up in last season’s Grand National however, and races off a 10lb higher mark this time. Across The Bay needs to up his game on his two previous runs over these fences and he can be a bit in-and-out but he is ultra-game on his day and his trainer knows what is required to win this race. Burton Port represents leading owner Trevor Hemmings who likes his staying chasers to be trained with the Crabbie’s Grand National in mind and he has won the race with Hedgehunter and Ballabriggs This former Cheltenham Gold Cup fourth, was switched from Nicky Henderson to Jonjo O’Neill over the summer as O’Neill has such a good Grand National record of late and been trained for just one day. It is hard to say that he has looked his best this season but his handicap rating has dropped as a consequence which will mean he carries less weight which will help him as he is not the biggest and his trainer is a master at preparing a staying chaser for their intended target.He showed more zip last time when almost making all the running in a veteran’s chase at Newbury. Pineau De Re is the right kind of age being 11 and he travelled like a dream through the Pertemps Final over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival and a number of Grand National winners prepped over timber earlier in the campaigns. Considering he was a 33/1 shot three weeks ago, the impression given beforehand was that he was mainly prepping for Aintree but he was only beaten a neck finishing strongly and could be just the type the general public will underestimate on the day like Auroras Encore last year being an 11-year-old from not a high-profile stable. He did only get as far as the eighth fence when in rear in this season’s Becher Chase though. 5:10 Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle This handicap restricted to conditional jockeys and amateur riders used to be one of the strongest of the season in terms of trends but it is hard to argue it is the same race now that professionals are not allowed to ride so relevant trends are no very thin on the ground. For example, five and six-year-olds had won 16 of the 18 renewals up until the changes in 2009 but the next two winners were aged nine and seven and we even had a successful four-year-old filly last season when Cockney Sparrow won. She also became the first favourite (or joint-favourite) to win for 19 years. In addition since the change, horses to run in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle have won three of the five runnings compared to being 0-48 going back to 1993 so that is now a positive rather than a negative and what was the domain of very lowly-weighted horses is no longer the case with winners now successful from other areas of the handicap. When this two-mile handicap hurdle opened the card on Grand National Day the Irish had a terrific record winning four times between 2000 and 2007. Although it is no longer on terrestrial television, the Irish still supplied the winner and second three years ago so clearly any Irish contenders have to be taken very seriously. The record of the Irish aside, the only stat to have held up since the change is that that no front runner has won since 1998 and that was only a five-runner race. Shortlist Strongpoint Massini’s Point Drum Lee Glen Beg Somethingwonderful Conclusion Positives here are for County Hurdle runners (Rainbow Creek (12th), Jumps Road (16th) and Strongpoint (19th)) and the Irish (Rocky Wednesday, Strongpoint, Massini’s Trap, Somethingwonderful, Drum Lee and Glen Beg). He may be a ten-year-old but as Strongpoint scores on both counts, he tops the short list. Being five or six is preferable so Massini’s Trap, who also has the added interest of first-time blinkers, joins him as do Glen Beg and Somethingwonderful who were first and second in the same Navan handicap 20 days ago. In for a penny, in for a pound, the final shortlisted contender is also Irish-trained being Drum Lee who was third in that same race so let’s hope that is the key piece of form so we get the Trifecta up! The talented Ger Fox takes 7lb off his back taking over from David Casey on this occasion however. 5:45 Weatherbys Private Banking Bumper Not a bad renewal of this Grade 2 bumper (the second most important in Britain) two years ago with The New One beating My Tent Or Yours into second I guess. Over to you last season’s 1-2 Killyglass and Vago Collonges! The New One had previously finished sixth in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival thus becoming the sixth winner of this Grade 2 event to contest that prize, five in the last 14 years. All five were unplaced at Cheltenham so don’t let the fact that Modus (8th) or Our Kaempfer (17th) finish out of the money put you off them. Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race three times and runs Ballybolley who is chasing a hat-trick after wins at Southwell and Towcester. Alan Swinbank is another name to conjure with having supplied a winner and a runner-up in two of the last six seasons and he runs Fly Home Harry who won two bumpers before Christmas Day and finished second in two more afterwards under penalties but is back to a level-weights contest here. Of the 26 winners, 22 had run no more than three times in bumpers beforehand which is the negative for him. Shortlist Modus Our Kaempfer Ballyboley Fly Home Harry Conclusion The Irish totally dominated the Weatherbys Champion Bumper again this year filling the first six places but Modus ran creditably in eighth so has to be considered close to being the best bumper performer in Britain, especially having easily won a bumper at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Our Kaempfer’s third in the Listed Bumper at Cheltenham in November just behind Red Sherlock is also good form so he was disappointing at the Festival but I am sure he is a lot better than that. Trainer trends say we must look out for Ballyboley and Fly Home Harry hence their inclusion.

[Top Novices' Hurdle > 2:00pm Friday April 4th]

Re: Top Novices' Hurdle > 2:00pm Friday April 4th 2:00 International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices’ Hurdle Seven of the last 15 winners posted a top-six finish in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the last two, Darlan and My Tent Or Yours, gaining compensation here for Nicky Henderson after finding just one too good in the traditional Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser. No surprise therefore that Henderson also runs this season’s Supreme runner-up, Josses Hill, here (he has also won three of the last four runnings) and the Supreme is also represented by the strong-finishing fourth, Sgt Reckless, who was a three-lengths detached last at one point. In addition to Darlan and My Tent Or Yours, another two J P McManus-owned Supreme runners-up have also found consolation here as Joe Mac and Straw Bear went one place better at Aintree than Cheltenham. The other guide to be of interest this year is the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle run at Kempton in late February won by Irving though it wouldn’t be a hugely strong guide. The winner doesn’t run here but the runner-up, Amore Alato, takes his chance. Two Dovecote winners won this race in the 1990s and last season’s winner was second. Whereas ex-bumper horses have won the last eight runnings of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, seven of the last 11 Top Novices’ hurdle winners started their career on the Flat so speed horses have been well on top. That said, the last two winners were ex-bumper horses but they were also exceptionally-speedy, class acts in Darlan and My Tent Or Yours. The only two Ex-Flat contenders this season are Mijhaar and King Of The Picts. It is refreshing to see three Irish raiders this season. Successful just twice in 38 runnings, with Grade 1 novice hurdles just around the corner at the Punchestown Festival their best novices are held back for those but Dessie Hughes has sent over Art Of Payroll (bolted up at Leopardstown in a handicap last time out), Charlie Swan runs The Game Changer (second in a Listed novice hurdle last time) in the Gigginstown silks and John Shanahan lets King Of The Picts (placed when well beaten in two Grade 1s) take his chance. Only 2lb separates the trio on official ratings. Of the last 17 winners all but four had won or finished second on their last hurdles start so King of The Picts has it to do on that score. So does Sgt Reckless having finished fourth in the Supreme but Supreme runners should be considered irrespective of whether they finished in the first two or not as three of the four that didn’t had run with credit in finishing between fourth and sixth in the Supreme (the other exited at the first flight). The front four in the market have won 18 of the last 23 runnings and no winner has made all for 17 years. Unsurprisingly, My Tent Or Yours outclassed his rivals at the age of six last year but eight of the previous ten winners were five-year-olds from just under 50% representation over that period. Five-year-olds in action this season are Amore Alato, Art Of Payroll, Baltimore Rock (won the Imperial Cup), Irish Cavalier (winner of three of his four novice hurdles at a much lower level), King Of The Picts and The Game Changer. Shortlist Josses Hill Baltimore Rock Mijhaar Conclusion Not a strong trends race but given that Nicky Henderson has won three of the last four runnings, two of which with the Supreme runner-up, then Josses Hill has to be the main trends pick as well as the form pick in his bid to become the fifth Supreme runner-up to gain consolation here since 1999. Although this has been a race in which ex-Flat horses have done very well, the last two Henderson-trained winners were ex-bumper horses as is Josses Hill. Given the excellent record of five-year-olds and horses to the fore in the market, then the Imperial Cup winner, Baltimore Rock, appeals as the main danger. He quickened up well on bad ground to win at Sandown so may be more value than the winning margin indicated that day. Mijhaar gets the final shortlist berth as this has been a good race for ex-Flat horses and he is just one of two of those in the race alongside the Irish raider, King Of The Picts, but this hasn’t been a great race for the Irish down the years. Rated as high as 109 at his peak on the level, he made a successful hurdling debut on Good ground before falling on his only other start on very heavy ground so this surface should be far more to his liking.

[Mildmay Novices' Chase > 2:30pm Friday April 4th]

Re: Mildmay Novices' Chase > 2:30pm Friday April 4th 2:30 Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices’ Chase First run in 1981, this year’s running of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase will be its first as a Grade 1 event and chances can be argued for all six runners headed by the RSA winner O’Faolain’s Boy who is bidding to become the third horse to complete the RSA-Mildmay double after Monsieur Le Cure and Star De Mohaison. Six RSA winners have failed here but, unlike those, now this is a Grade 1 race, O’Faolain’s Boy does not have to carry a penalty. To be honest I am not sure it was the penalty that beat that sextet, more that they had a hard race and not enough to recover and that is the main argument for anyone wanting to take on this year’s RSA winner. Three of his five rivals also contested the RSA with Just A Par tiring late on to finish seventh having ran well for a long way, Don Cossack falling just as the pace was starting to really hot up and Many Clouds being brought down just after half-way. Nine of the last 12 winners took part at the Cheltenham Festival but don’t just rely on the RSA Chase (although it is the most significant guide by quite some margin) as five ran elsewhere at the meeting including last year’s winner, Dynaste, who was second in what is now the JLT Novices’ chase, the race in which Wonderful Charm ran a disappointing fifth. In fact, all six runners ran at the Festival as Holywell won the Baylis & Harding Handicap Chase off a mark of 146 and was raised as a result to 157 which, according to the BHA Handicapper, would have seen him edge out O’Faolain’s Boy (rated 156) in the RSA, which will probably raise an eyebrow or two. Seven of the last 12 winners had won a graded chase. Of today’s field only the Reynoldstown Chase runner-up, Many Clouds, has not done so. However, two of the last four winners contested the Reynoldstown with very contrasting fortunes and Many Clouds was only beaten 2½ lengths by O’Faolain’s Boy at Ascot when attempting to give the winner 4lb so his connections have every right to be thinking of what might have been had he not been brought down in the RSA Chase. The last two winners both contested the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase in which Just A Par was a well-beaten third at odds-on and then had a breathing operation before his RSA run. Paul Nicholls wanted to keep him back for this race and miss the RSA but his owners won that particular argument so it will be interesting to see if that good run for a long way at Cheltenham brings him on or sets him back. Just A Par is the only one of the sextet not to have won at least twice over fences, something that 30 of the last 33 winners had managed to do beforehand. Nicholls has won this race three times however. Dynaste’s victory last season extended the record of winners that had won over at least three miles before to 20 from the last 23 so do not take too big a chance on whether your selection will fully last out this stamina test. I still believe Don Cossack is a far from guaranteed stayer and Wonderful Charm and Many Clouds have also yet to win over three miles. I don’t doubt for one second that Many Clouds gets this trip well and will be surprised if he is not aimed at the Grand National next season but the other two have questions to answer on the stamina front. A good race for punters with nine favourites (including joint-favourites) and two second-favourites winning in the last 17 years. In fact, only one of the last 25 winners started at bigger than 10/1 so this is not a race to go in search of an upset. Shortlist O’Faolain’s Boy Holywell Conclusion As Many Clouds has not won a pattern race, Just A Par has won just once over fences and Wonderful Charm and Don Cossack have stamina to prove, the shortlist of O’Faolain’s Boy and Holywell quickly picks itself especially as this is not a race to go in search of an upset. Whilst RSA winners have a mixed record in this race, this is the first time the winner will not carry a penalty and O’Faolain’s Boy looks a toughie so he is a deserving favourite having won a very competitive running of that race three weeks ago, a little cosily in my view though Many Clouds is entitled to not to be too far away on their Reynoldstown form. Having also won the second-best guide of late, the Reynoldstown Chase, he will be hard to beat. Holywell is rated 1lb higher on his handicap win at the Festival despite his trainer moaning he was rated too high beforehand on what he had achieved over fences and it was his stamina that won him the day so this slightly longer trip should suit. He also showed he can handle two big festivals in three weeks last year as he backed up his Pertemps Final win by finishing second to Solwhit in the Grade 1 staying hurdle.

[Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th 3:05 Betfred Melling Chase Eleven declarations and, although this wouldn’t be the classiest Melling Chase I’ve ever seen by a long chalk, it is competitive and fascinating all the same. During the last 19 runnings, the favourite or second-favourite has collected on 14 occasions so this has been a punter’s race for sure. Cheltenham’s equivalent race, the Ryanair Chase, has similarly been an excellent race for punters in its short existence. Module and Rajdhani Express, both third at the Cheltenham Festival, are currently disputing favouritism just ahead of the impressive Byrne Group Plate winner, Ballynagour. Just a note of caution, when races are not up to their usual standard that means we are not comparing like with like as much and that is when strong trends can suffer and the strongest negative pattern is that only two winners bypassed the Cheltenham Festival specifically for this prize since it was first run in 1989. Contenders who gave Cheltenham a miss were Rolling Aces, Days Hotel, Toner D’Oudairies and Pepite Rose. As this year’s renewal is probably the least classiest on record, I think another strong negative trend therefore even more at risk is that only one non Grade 1 winner from earlier in the season has won in the last 11 runnings. Well, I am certain it is as Boston Bob is the only Grade 1 winner in the race full stop (and those Grade 1 wins weren’t achieved this season) and 2m5f looked too sharp for him in the Ryanair and they are dropping down another furlong here so I can only imagine they are running here as they think it’s a less classy race than the Betfred Bowl. Wishfull Thinking won the Manifesto Chase when it was a Grade 2 race (now a Grade 1). The last 11 winners ran in either the Queen Mother Champion Chase or Ryanair. The Ryanair Chase has featured four winners in its first nine runnings whereas 12 of the last 19 winners posted a top-three finish in the Champion Chase. For the last two seasons it has been the Champion Chase winner that doubled up here and that 2m championship is represented by Module who was a staying-on third and would have been second in a couple more strides and I am convinced he is a better horse over this longer trip so I can see why he is duelling for favouritism. I also thought Wishfull Thinking (5th in the Champion Chase) was in the wrong race at Cheltenham having looked so good over 2m5f on his previous start so wasn’t surprised to see him beaten for speed last month. This trip is much more his bag these days. The Ryanair form is represented by Rajdhani Express (3rd), Boston Bob (6th) and Rathlin (7th). The other races earlier in the season that have been notable guides aren’t a factor this year. In following up his Maghull Novices’ Chase victory at this meeting 12 months earlier when successful in the Melling Chase, Sprinter Sacre was achieving the same feat as the 2012 winner, Finian’s Rainbow, thus becoming the seventeenth Melling Chase winner from 23 runnings to have previously won or placed at this three-day fixture before. This year’s only qualifier is Wishfull Thinking who won the Manifesto Chase over course and distance in 2011. The Irish won this five years in succession before Monet’s Garden broke the sequence seven seasons ago and their best guide has been the Boylesports.com Fortria Chase at Navan in November, a race in which their last winners finished 113. This season’s race was won by the injured Flemenstar beating Days Hotel. Boston Bob, Toner D’Oudairies and Rathlin also represent the Irish. Many punters take the view that it is easier to stay longer distance at flat courses like Aintree and Kempton but I take the opposite view as there is rarely any respite in the gallop at courses like these so horses have to stay very well to win. Of the 23 winners, all but six had not won over 2m4f or further beforehand. Is this strong enough to oppose them though? I’m not so sure. Front runners have an excellent record in other chase races on the Mildmay Course at this meeting (Silviniaco Conti became the 13th winner in 31 runnings of the Betfair Bowl to make all or virtually all on Day 1) on so it is with some surprise to note that no Melling Chase winner has ever made all the running in its 23 years. Shortlist Module Wishfull Thinking Rajdhani Express Conclusion Horses placed in the first three in the Champion Chase have a fine record and as this longer trip is expected to suit Module more, he is just the pick of the weak trends this year given how poor a renewal this is compared to other years in addition to also being top rated on ratings. He should also start in the first two in the betting like 14 of the last 19 winners. Second top rated is Wishfull Thinking who, like Module, found 2m too sharp in the Champion Chase, and this trip will suit him better judged on a number of recent efforts. Being the only horse in the line up not only to win at this meeting before but even place, he has to make the short list given the key trend is that 17 of the 23 winners had won or placed at this three-day fixture before. As Rajdhani Express is the highest place finisher from the Ryanair and likely to start in the first two in the betting, he completes the short list for a stable that has supplied the last two winners.

[Topham Chase > 3:40pm Friday April 4th]

Re: Topham Chase > 3:40pm Friday April 4th 3:40 Crabbie’s Supporting Everton In The Community Topham Chase Of the last 33 winners, only two were not prominent from half-way so this has been a big race for those that like their in-running betting. All races over the Grand National course tend to favour the prominent racers (Warne was another to make all on Day 1) as an early mistake can put horses on the back foot and it’s difficult to make up ground with fences coming along so regularly. The shorter the trip, the hotter the tempo and the more difficult it becomes for horses who don’t fancy the unique obstacles. It has to be said that last year’s winner, Triolo D’Alene, was one of those two winners given a hold-up ride. Dunowen Point led from the third fence to half-way up the run-in when fourth last year and is 8lb lower today creeping in off 10st 1lb and six of the last ten winners ran in last season’s race with four of the last five finishing in the first four so he must have a great each-way chance. Other contenders from last season’s race are Giorgio Quercus (hampered and u.r four out when in touch) and Bennys Mist (pulled up) who now races in a first-time hood. In fact, eight of the last ten winners had run over these fences before so also consider Royal Rebellion (won the Grand Sefton in December), Poole Master (7th in Grand Sefton), Big Fella Thanks (numerous runs including 4th, 6th and 7th in the Grand National), You Must Know Me (3rd in Grand Sefton), Tatenen (two incompletions in the Grand National), Soll (7th in last season’s Grand National) and Your Busy (2nd in Grand Sefton). Since 2000 only Gwanako has carried more than 11st to victory. In fact, nine of the last 11 winners carried no more than 10st 7lb. Triolo D’Alene’s victory carrying 10st 7lb kept that run going last year but it is worth noting that the runner-up was one of the top weights carrying 11st 7lb and the second and third in 2011 and 2012 had also been towards the head of the handicap so don’t be put off if you fancy a horse with a big weight for place-only purposes. Top weight is Champion Court who was seventh in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and that was the key race last year as the 1-2 were the only representatives from the top 2m4f handicap chase of the season. Sticking with Cheltenham form, with regards to the open handicap chase run at the Festival over a similar distance, the Byrne Group Plate, six Topham winners since 1995 ran in that 2m5f contest but three of them were in the 1990s. This year’s Plate representatives are Tatenen (3rd), Giorgio Quercus (6th), Champion Court (7th), Bennys Mist (13th) and King Edmund (14th). In the last 20 runnings as many as 99 horses aged 11 or older have taken part with only the remarkable Always Waining coming out on top when landing his third Topham so I am happy to overlook Massini’s Maguire (13), Big Fella Thanks (12), He’llberemembered (11), Tanks For That (11), King Edmund (11) and Your Busy (11). Triolo D’Alene was another successful, young French-bred last season at the age of six but we have to go back to the Jenny Pitman-trained Smith’s Man in 1985 for the last British or Irish-bred aged under eight to be successful which is against Lost Legend and Standin Ovation who wears a first-time hood. Winning form earlier in the season had been present on the profiles of 13 successive winners up until 2005 but, of the subsequent eight winners, only Gwanako has won earlier in the season since. Aside from failing to secure a victory earlier in the season, a busy campaign is also no negative as 13 winners in the past two decades had run seven times or more in the build up to Aintree. Nineteen of the previous 20 winners before Triolo D’Alene had run four times or more earlier in the campaign and had run in March or April. Nicky Henderson has won the Topham three times and runs the Baylis & Harding runner-up, Ma Filleule, who was outstayed by Holywell after kicking into a clear lead so this shorter trip can suit her. Barry Geraghty takes over from Nico De Boinville. Henderson also runs Tanks For That and Giorgio Quercus. As for the Irish, Willie Mullins has trained a winner, two seconds, two thirds and a fifth and he runs Bishopsfurze who some would consider an unusual contender as jumping hasn’t been his strong suit. The Irish have registered five victories in total, going back to 1952, but since 1979 have only hit the target twice. They’ve been knocking at the door, with five of the first seven home in 2010, the third and fourth in 2011 and another third-place finish last season. The last five French-bred winners going back to 1988 had not won over 3m+ before, the first four of which had never run further than around the Topham distance of 2m5½f so Fago fits that profile. Shortlist Dunowen Point Bennys Mist Giorgio Quercus Soll You Must Know Me Conclusion Stats say it is hard to carry over 10st 7lb let alone 11st to victory recently so I will pass over the top eight in the handicap for sure and another seven horses carrying that 11st threshold or less can also overlooked for being too old or too young (if not French-bred) so that’s cuts the potential shortlist by 50%. Of those, I will look to the very low weights. Dunowen Point has been trained to go three places better than last year for Donald McCain who has won the other two races over these fences at this meeting and is likely to be ridden prominently again off a featherweight in a bid to become the fifth winner since 2007 to have finished in the first four in the race the previous year so he is the standout trends pick (despite just three runs this season) and I expect him to be very well tipped up and shorten as a consequence so it may be best getting on early if you like his chance. Giorgio Quercus was in contention when hampered four out last year and represents a stable with three Topham wins so is another to consider for each-way purposes at a tidy price having also run creditably in the Byrne Group Plate. Bennys Mist also contested the two best guides (this race and the Byrne Group Plate) and Venetia Williams has turned to a first-time hood which could signal a return to form. Soll has Aintree experience having finished seventh in the Grand National and like the last eight winners has not won this season and he led last time out early on so a similarly-positive ride can see him go well for a long way. Of the horses set to carry between 10st 7lb and 11st, You Must Know Me makes most appeal despite just three runs this season and lack of recent winners for the Irish, but they have been going close recently so he makes each-way appeal. Third in the Grand Sefton Chase here in December, he looks like he has been trained with this race in mind by Henry de Bromhead who is a terrific target trainer and the vast majority of his chasers jump like bucks.

[Sefton Novices' Hurdle > 4:15pm Friday April 4th]

Re: Sefton Novices' Hurdle > 4:15pm Friday April 4th 4:15 Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle Of the 26 winners exactly half had run at the previous month’s Cheltenham Festival (and 10 of 19 since the Sefton became a Grade 1) so no real angle there one way or another. At Fishers Cross became the fourth Sefton winner to have contested any of the nine runnings of the Albert Bartlett and the second to complete the double but, remarkably, only the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained Cogry (8th) of today’s 18-runner field contested that Grade 1 3m novice hurdle so this year’s race has a substandard look about it. His trainer has had two winners and two thirds in this race. When there was no 3m novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, it was the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle over 2m5f that was previously the principal guide with four second, third, or fourth place finishers winning here between 1988-1999 but the last 15 horses that have tried the three-furlong longer Sefton Novices’ Hurdle after filling the frame in the Neptune have all been beaten. Two Neptune runners take their chance this time; Killala Quay (4th) and Cole Harden (7th). The best guide outside of the Cheltenham Festival has been the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) run at Haydock in mid-February having featured four of the last 13 winners. This year’s race was won by the eight-year-old mare, Toubeera, in testing conditions but she has been well beaten twice. The other guides to have had a notable effect are not relevant this year. Seventeen of the last 19 winners had won at least twice over hurdles which is against Beat That, Deadly Sting (trainer has saddled two winners and a second and is also represented by Capote), Mondo Cane, Port Melon, Themanfrom Minella and Walk On Al. That said, it would be remiss not to point out that those two winners with just one hurdling success to their name occurred in just the last four years The more wins the better actually as last year’s winner was 5-5 earlier in the season thus extending the record of winners that had won at least four times earlier in the campaign to eight from the last 17 years so do be dazzled by all those 1s next to a contender’s name for Seeyouatmidnight, The Last Samuri and Tagrita. Nineteen of the last 21 winners had run at least four times over timber. Over the last two decades 12 Sefton winners had previously won over at least three miles. And don’t forget that this race is run over an extended three miles at that. Winners over at least three miles over hurdles are Capote, Seeyouatmidnight, The Last Samuri, Walk On Al, Tagrita and Toubeera. The likes of Racing Pulse, Themanfrom Minella and Port Melon won over the trip in a point-to-point. Three Irish-trained horses have won since 1989 (and all three bypassed Cheltenham) and they are represented this year by Dessie Hughes’ Giantofaman who won a Grade 2 novice hurdle over 2m4f on heavy ground last time out and the Noel Glynn-trained nine-year-old, Flatfoot Boogie, who has not run for 198 days Shortlist Seeyouatmidnight Toubeera Capote Cogry Conclusion Seeyouatmidnight has plenty of hurdling experience, is a multiple winner and has proven he stays three miles so meets three of the strongest criteria so tops the trends-based shortlist. His first two wins of the season were achieved at 66/1 and 22/1 plus he was a 6/1 chance when completing his hat-trick over hurdles so he continues to surprise and be under-rated. Now he is top rated to the tune of 12lb this time, that is no longer likely to be the case and he should be the clear favourite. Toubeera is another proven over the trip and a multiple winner over timber and also won the best guide outside of the Cheltenham Festival so she is interesting again receiving a 7lb mares’ allowance. Capote has also proven that three miles is no problem to him, has won both his hurdles starts and is trained by Jonjo O’Neill who has saddled two winners and a second in this race so he must be respected. Even though he only finished eighth, as Cogry is the only Albert Bartlett Hurdle representative and represents a stable with two winners and two thirds, he could be a tad of each-way value. Racing Pulse was favourite to beat Seeyouatmidnight last time out but failed to give his best and is interesting here having impressed in a point-to-point, bumper and maiden hurdle and has three-mile winning form albeit between the flags.

[Crabbie's Handicap Hurdle > 4:50pm Friday April 4th]

Re: Crabbie's Handicap Hurdle > 4:50pm Friday April 4th 4:50 Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle Little did we realise it at the time but when Auroras Encore won this event at 50/1 back in 2008 that he would go on to win the Grand National five seasons later when an unconsidered outsider once again. As with the 3m handicap hurdle at this meeting, novices have a good record winning seven times since 2002. This year they are represented by Cheltenian (though a second-season hurdler), Little Jon, Zabana, Stonebrook and Aazif. Of the 25 runnings to date, 12 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. The Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle are the two handicap hurdles run over around the same distance as this handicap at the Cheltenham Festival and Attaglance became the first winner to have come on from the latter event, a race only inaugurated in 2009 and he returns again after his unlucky second in the novices’ handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Caid Du Berlais was third in this season’s ‘Martin Pipe’ finishing ahead of Art Professor (17th) and Hazy Tom (19th). The Coral Cup has been run since 1993 and six winners here contested that viciously-competitive handicap which is a fairly healthy return. Clondaw Kaempfer (14th) and too aggressively ridden in my view, Party Rock (p.u) and Yesyoucan (p,u) represent that race this time. The Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle over 2m1f has produced four winners but only two of them since 1990. Contenders from that event this year are Lyvius (8th), Alaivan (9th), Cash And Go (11th), Morning Royalty (15th), Citizenship (23rd) and Cheltenian (p.u as 5/1 favourite). All but four winners of this race, that first saw the light of day in 1989, had struck at some point in the campaign. Of the quartet of winners that had not managed a win earlier in the season, two carried the familiar colours of J P McManus who has owned five winners of this race in total in the last 16 years and Alaivan and Stonebrook will bid to make that six. A healthy strike rate of five wins in the last 16 runnings for Irish yards, but their runners have been few and far between recently with just five turning out in the last six seasons and only Zabana and Mister Hotelier are sent over this season. Only four of the last 25 winners failed to win earlier in the season which is against Attaglance, Grand Vision, Clondaw Kaempfer, Cash And Go, Art Professor, Morning Royalty, Alaivan, Little Jon and Golden Hoof. Shortlist Stonebrook Zabana Mister Hotelier Aazif Party Rock Conclusion The lightly-weighted Stonebrook makes plenty of appeal being a J P McManus-owned (5 wins in 16 years) novice (7 wins in the last 12 years) having won four of his last five starts. McManus also owns Alaivan but others make more appeal notably the Andrew Lynch-trained Zabana who is also a novice and is one of just two Irish raiders and they have fared well in this handicap. Mister Hotelier is the second Irish-based contender and arrives here off the back of a win at Wexford so is respected as is the bottom weight, Aaazif, given the good record of novices in this race and he was only narrowly beaten on his only start at Aintree. The Coral Cup has been the best guide and Party Rock makes appeal as the best hope from that race despite pulling up at Cheltenham and having not shown much in his previous three starts but he has won and finished second in three starts at Aintree so a return to this course could conceivably jazz him back up to run a big race at a huge each-way price

[Mares Open Flat Race > 5:25pm Friday April 4th]

Re: Mares Open Flat Race > 5:25pm Friday April 4th 5:25 Concerto Group Mares’ Bumper Just nine runnings to work from and, with more luck, Alan King could have won five of them having been responsible for a winner and four seconds. His representative this time is Avispa who finished fourth in the EBF Stallions TBA Mares’ Only Bumper (Listed) at Sandown on Imperial Cup Day which is the highest class race of its kind before the Grand National Meeting and has been a good guide to this race. Tempest River finished fourth in that bumper three years ago before taking this event at 20/1 and Eleven Fifty Nine was third before reversing placings with Call Me A Star two years ago. In addition, the same mares’ bumper at Sandown has featured the runner-up here in three of the last eight years. The runner-up, Tara Mist, also takes here chance and had the measure of Avispa by 14 lengths on that occasion only beaten by an ultra-game Irish-trained mare. The record of the Irish has really caught the eye in very recent seasons supplying the first three home five years ago with John Kiely responsible for the winner and runner-up and they put up an excellent overall effort three years ago as only a Peter Bowen-trained 28/1 winner (you have to look at every Bowen horse at Aintree and he runs Princess Tara) denied the Irish a second 1-2-3 on the spin as they supplied the next three horses home (Kiely was thereabouts again saddling the fourth). The Irish have also supplied the runner-up for the last two years. No Kiely runners this year but Kayf Hampshire and Queen Alphabet have been sent over Shortlist Avispa Tara Mist Princess Tara Queen Alphabet Conclusion Not a lot more to add to the above except than The Govaness is top rated on her Cheltenham win at The Open Meeting but she is penalised 4lb for that Listed success and not run since and that Alan Swinbank has a good record in the other bumper at this meeting and has booked AP McCoy for Molly Cat. Tara Mist holds Avispa on Sandown running which has been an excellent guide but I respect Alan King’s record in this race so don’t be surprised if he gives Tara Mist more of a race this time. The Irish don’t send over bumper runners in Britain without good reason as they are hardly races laden with prize money so both Kayf Hampshire and, maybe more interestingly, Queen Alphabet, are respected as is Princess Tara for Peter Bowen who won this race with a 28/1 outsider in the past and does particularly well in bumpers at Aintree full stop.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread

new series starts tonight for those intrested Thursday's racing programming includes 1st episode of new series charting trainee riders from tough backgrounds, JOCKEY SCHOOL (10pm, C4)

starts in a few moments followed by how to win the grand national

[Jump Racing Thursday 3rd April]

Re: Jump Racing Thursday 3rd April 2:00 – Injured Jockeys Fund Anniversary 4-y.o Juvenile Hurdle This could prove very competitive and we have the third and fourth from the Triumph renewing rivalry. Calipto was unlucky at Cheltenham as his saddle slipped at a crucial stage and connections will be confident of victory. Preference is for GUITAR PETE however who has gained plenty of experience over hurdles and whose front running tactics should be well suited to the track. He jumps very well and I can see him going off at a serious pace and getting most of his rivals in trouble. On his penultimate start he beat Tiger Roll cozily and another Grade One win could be coming his way. 2:30 – Betfred Bowl DYNASTE was a brilliant winner at this meeting last year and comes into the race on a real high after impressing when winning the RyanAir at Cheltenham. He is a real class act, winning 5 of his 8 starts over fences and the only time he has finished out of the first two over fences was when he was injured in the King George. The ground and track should suit and this trip is ideal for him at Aintree. Silviniaco Conti rates a big danger, but he had a hard race last time out and ran slightly below form in this race last year, so preference is for Dynaste. 3:05 Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle THE NEW ONE ran a blinder in this last year as a novice and a year on he should prove very hard to beat. He looked very good leading up to Christmas, easily beating Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar and was a shade unlucky against My Tent Or Yours at Kempton who went on to run so well at Cheltenham. He was stopped in his tracks in the Champion Hurdle and then finished strongly, so he deserves compensation and having already shown a liking for Aintree (won in 2012 and second in 2013), he should prove hard to beat over a trip that is probably his optimum. 3:40 Crabbies Foxhunters’ Chase MOSSEY JOE is unbeaten in points and was an impressive winner last time out. He has also looked classy over fences, winning his last four starts and he was superb when winning at Stratford last June. He jumps well and goes strongly from the front and if he can get into a good rhythm, he should prove hard to catch and I can see him making all for victory. 4:15 – Red Rum Handicap Chase Ever since he finished second to Valdez at Doncaster in January I have believed that ARNAUD is the perfect horse for this race and I am delighted that connections decided to miss Cheltenham and go straight here. He is a good front runner and can put in some spectacular leaps when required and on ground that will suit, could be hard to catch. A rating of 148 is fair, but it is good to see that he has a seven pound claimer on board to get his weight down. He looks to be one of the few improvers in the field and he should run a big race. Claret Cloak ran a good race at Cheltenham and is the one I fear most, but he had a hard race that day and that may cost him against Arnaud. 4:50 – Manifesto Novices’ Chase OSCAR WHISKY has had some of his best wins at Aintree and this trip is ideal. It was a shame that he fell at the first at Cheltenham, but his form was actually boosted during the race as he had beaten the winner at level weights earlier in the season. If none the worse for that fall (he won his next start after falling over hurdles), he should run a big race on ground that should be ideal.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread new series starts tonight for those intrested Thursday's racing programming includes 1st episode of new series charting trainee riders from tough backgrounds, JOCKEY SCHOOL (10pm, C4)

[Betfred Bowl > 2:30pm Thursday April 3rd]

Re: Betfred Bowl > 2:30pm Thursday April 3rd The Aintree Bowl is a fantastic race, but a race to thread carefully in nonetheless. The big mistake I find punters make is that they focus too much on Cheltenham form and forget how different a track Aintree is. Take the last 5 years of this race – The last 5 winners of this race did not win a race at Cheltenham and 4 of these 5 did not even run at the festival. It appears a fresh horse can strike. The field is the strongest we have had in a while in this race in my opinion. Sylvianico Conti is a very classy horse who spoiled his chance in this race last year with some tardy jumping but ran an okay race in the Gold Cup to finish fourth this year. I’m still however not convinced Aintree suits him and that he is a stayer. His King George win was a race full of non stayers and in Cheltenham he was swallowed up after the last fence. Whilst I would not rule him out obviously but at 9/4 I could not be backing him. Dynaste is interesting back up in trip after his fantastic Ryanair win at this year’s festival but I feel his staying credentials are questionable also and running so close after his Cheltenham exploits I’d be convinced to look elsewhere. First Lieutenant does come here fresh and won this last year under Bryan Cooper. He should stay based on last year and his 2nd in the Irish Lexus, with Lord Windermere in arrears that day reads well. He is interesting on form and the fact that he comes here fresh is also a positive, odds of 7/2 are appealing for this very likable sort. Of the others Menorah looks over priced at 14/1 based on last years running but one that interests me is the lightly raced Argocat at 33/1. The race that interests me is the Powers Irish Whiskey Chase back in November 2013. Rocky Creek won the race by 2 lengths but that does not tell the full story. Argocat came cruising to the last fence and looked every inch the winner under a confident Paul Townend before a bad mistake at the last finished his chances and left Argocat with 3 broken ribs. He returned from his injury with a poor showing at Gowran Park but last time out won well beating the Willie Mullins trained Turban over 2 miles 4 on heavy ground. He has always looked to have wanted good ground and may improve for this. At 33/1 this fresh and talented sort may just fulfil his massive potential. Hopefully the ground will come up good or good to soft as Argocat has form on good ground and may just strike at a very big price. 2 Pts Win First Lieutenant 7/2 1 Pts E/W Argocat 33/1

[Topham Chase > 3:40pm Friday April 4th]

Re: Topham Chase > 3:40pm Friday April 4th TOPHAM CHASE TRENDS 2014 [ thanks to racecaller for the use of these trends ] The Crabbie's Topham Chase takes place at Aintree on Friday 4th April. It is a 2M 5½F grade 3 handicap chase run over the Grand National fences. Close to 30 runners line up in this race each year, so it is usually a fine spectacle and a super prelude to the Grand National on the following day. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 1-1-15 6yo: 1-2-18 7yo: 1-3-36 8yo: 0-6-56 9yo: 3-9-65 10yo: 3-5-63 11yo+: 1-4-44 Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-12-115 Horses aged 9 or 10: 6-14-128 Horses aged 11 or older: 1-4-44 All 3 winners aged younger than 8 were French bred and last 6 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred. Since 1983 there have been 98 runners aged 11+ and the only one that had managed to win this was Always Waining, aged 11 in 2012, when completing a hat-trick of wins in this race. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 3-18-144 Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 7-12-143 8 of the 10 winners carried 10-7 or less The two horses who managed to carry over 10-7 to victory were Gwanako, who had been runner-up in Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham on previous start, and Always Waining, when winning this for third time. Top Weights: F00BF002F00 (0-1-11). The only top weight to make the frame was Scotsirish (2010) who had previously won two grade 2 chases. Official Ratings Horses rated 136 or higher: 2-13-87 Horses rated 135 or less: 8-17-200 The last 8 winners were officially rated 128 to 141. Horses racing from out of the handicap: 3-5-61 3 of 10 winners were racing from 8 or more pounds out of the handicap. The first 3 home in 2007 and 2009 were all racing from out of the handicap. Recent/Past Form 5 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (2 exceptions ran in Kim Muir last time & 2 ran over hurdles) 9 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days 10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 8 times since August 8 of 10 winners (last 8) had not won over fences that season (2 exceptions had won 1 chase) 8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 6 chases (2 exceptions were French bred chasers aged 5 to 7 that had finished in first 2 in the Byrne Group Plate) 8 of 10 winners (last 8) had not won over fences in previous 360 days 8 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more handicap chases (2 exceptions were French breds aged 6 & 7) 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F+ 10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase worth 9K+ 9 of 10 (last 9) had contested a graded chase 10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track 5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) had run over hurdles that season Course Form Record of horses that finished in first 4 the previous year: P4691P7F151031F109 (5-2-18) Grand Sefton Hcap Chase winner (Rebel Rebellion): F260 (0-1-4) 7 of 10 winners ran in last year's race, finishing 0042411 3 of 10 winners ran in the Grand Sefton in November, finishing 4F6 3 of 10 winners ran in the Becher Chase in November, finishing 364 8 of 10 winners had raced over the National fences (6 of those 8 had finished in first 4) Other Races Highest placed finisher from Kim Muir: 601U25 (1-1-6) Highest placed finisher from Byrne Group Plate: F0061F00F (1-0-9) Fairlawne Handicap Chase winner (Double Ross): F3 (0-1-2) 3 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in the Byrne Plate that season or a previous season 2 of 10 winners ran in the Kim Muir last time, 80 2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 7P 2 of 10 winners ran in United House Gold Cup, finishing 00 2 of 10 winners ran in Totepool Home of King Size Pool Listed H'cap Chase, finishing 70 Racing Tactics 6 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout the race 4 of 10 winners were held up towards rear until halfway It appears to be key that you have a runner who likes to be close to the leaders as 30 of the last 34 winners were in the vanguard from halfway. Trainers Peter Bowen (4-2-16) has saddled Always Waining to win 3 renewals between 2010 & 2012 and also trained Dunbrody Millar to win this in 2007. Nicky Henderson (2-0-17) trained the winner in 2006 & 2013. Paul Nicholls (1-3-26) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-13) have all saddled the winner in the past 6 years, though each has been heavily represented. Kim Bailey (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame. Liam Cusack (0-1-1) & Donald McCain (0-1-2) both saddled a placed finisher in 2013. Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-5) trained the winner in 2003. Irish trained runners (1-8-58) have won 1 of the last 10 runnings. Willie Mullins (0-4-8) trained the winner in 2002 and has seen 5 of his 8 runners since 2004 make the first 5. Price No strong trends on the prices, though 5 of last 6 winners have gone off between 7/1 & 14/1. Favourites (1-3-11) have won just 1 of the last 10, showing a level stakes loss of 6.00. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10 - Carrying 10-7 or less - Officially rated 128 to 141 - Do not discount horses running from out of the handicap - Finished in first 4 last time out or ran in Kim Muir or over hurdles - Ran in past 35 days - Run 3 to 8 times since August - Previously won 3 to 6 times over fences - Failed to win over fences this season - Run in 10 or more handicap chases (or French bred aged 8 or younger) - Won over 2M 3F+ - Won at a left-handed track - Has contested a graded chase - Has run over hurdles this season - Previously run over the National fences (ideally finished in first 4) - Finished in first 6 in Grand Sefton or Becher Chase this season - Finished in first 4 in 2013 Topham Chase - Previously finished in first 4 in a Byrne Group Plate - Tends to race prominently - Trained by Peter Bowen, Nicky Henderson or Willie Mullins

[Crabbie's Fox Hunters Chase > 3:40pm Thursday April 3rd]

Re: Crabbie's Fox Hunters Chase > 3:40pm Thursday April 3rd CRABBIE'S FOXHUNTERS CHASE TRENDS 2014 [ thank-you to racecaller for the use of these trends ] The Crabbie’s Foxhunters Chase takes place on the opening day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting, on Thursday 3rd April. The race is run over the Grand National fences, over a trip of 2M 5½F and is restricted to amateur riders. Horses that have fared well in the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase have not necessarily repeated the feat here. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 7yo: 0-2-9 8yo: 0-0-17 9yo: 1-4-41 10yo: 2-5-56 11yo: 4-6-57 12yo: 2-2-44 13yo+: 1-1-29 9 of 10 winners were aged 10 or older, though they have accounted for 73.5% of total runners. 2 winners aged 12 were Scots Grey (placed in 4 class 1 chases & had been rated over 140 over fences) and Cloudy Lane (grade 2 chase winner that had formerly been rated over 150 over fences). Horses aged 8 or younger have gained no wins and just 2 places from 26 runners. Breeding British Bred: 4-3-54 Irish Bred: 3-10-148 French Bred: 3-7-45 Other: 0-0-6 Irish bred runners have accounted for 58.5% of the total runners but have only won 3 of the last 10 renewals. French & British bred horses have won 7 of last 10 from just 39.1% of total runners. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (exception won on penultimate start) 7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed chase start 8 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs 9 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days (1 exception was Katarino winning the race for a second year after not racing since the previous year's win) 9 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season (Katarino had not run that season before winning it for second time) 8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 4 hunter chases (winning no more than 1) 10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ 7 of 10 winners had won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock Cheltenham Festival Christies Foxhunters Chase winner: 6U (0-0-2) 3 of last 6 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing FU6 You have to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double. Only 3 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but since then all 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced. Other Races Previous year's winner (Tartan Snow): 1U2U79 (1-1-6) Walrus Hunter Chase winner (Ockey De Neulliac): 3U11F8 (2-1-6) Air Wedding Hunters' Chase winner (Pentiffic): UF (0-0-2) John McCarthy Memorial Hunters Chase winner (Warne): U4 (0-0-2) Whitelaw Challenge Cup winner (Richard's Sundance): PF (0-0-2) 2 of 10 winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11 Racing Tactics 8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10. Trainers Stuart Coltherd (1-0-1) & Donald McCain (1-0-3) have trained the past 2 winners. Oliver Greenall (0-1-2) & Venetia Williams (0-1-2) have each saddled 1 placed finisher. Paul Nicholls (0-1-12) last won this in 2002 and in past 10 years, he has seen 6 of his 12 runners complete the course and 5 of those 6 finished in the first 7 but only one get placed. Willie Mullins (0-1-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd, 8th & 10th in past 3 runnings. Irish trained runners (0-5-48) have gained no wins and just 5 places from 48 runners. They have been responsible for 4 favourites in that time. Price 9 of 10 winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1 In 2010 Silver Adonis won at 50/1, the only double figure price winner since 2000. Favourites (3-2-13) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.83. In 4 of the last 7 years where favourite was beaten, it was trained in Ireland (all Irish favourites beaten). Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 10 to 12 - French & British bred runners favoured - Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days - Posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed start - Won on 1 of last 2 starts - Won 2 or more chases under rules - Won over 2M 4F+ - Won a class 3 or better chase - Won 1 or 2 races this season - Previously run in 4 or fewer hunter chases (winning no more than 1) - Ideally has won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock - Won the Walrus Hunter Chase - Tends to race prominently - Trained in Great Britain - Priced between 3/1 and 8/1.

[Betfred Bowl > 2:30pm Thursday April 3rd]

Re: Betfred Bowl > 2:30pm Thursday April 3rd AINTREE BOWL TRENDS 2014 [ thanks to racecaller for the use of these trends ] The Betfred Bowl Steeplechase is one of four grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2014 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 3rd April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2010 and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 6 years, Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander & Denman, again, have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-1-2 7yo: 2-6-12 8yo: 3-5-22 9yo: 1-1-17 10yo: 2-1-10 11yo+: 2-1-9 12yo+: 0-1-3 The last 8 winners were aged 7 to 10, 5 were aged 7 or 8 and the 3 winners aged 9 or 10 had all finished in first 3 in previous year’s Betfred Bowl Chase. All 4 winners aged 10+ had run in either the Gold Cup or King George (or both) that season. Gender The two mares (0-2-2) to run in this race in past 10 years have both finished 2nd. Breeding Irish Bred: 5-5-31 French Bred: 3-8-23 British Bred: 2-3-19 German Bred: 0-0-2 No very strong trend on breeding. Recent/Past Form 6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in Gold Cup) 9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days 9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 162+ in last 2 completed chase starts 9 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases (exception had finished 2nd in 5 grade 1 chases) 9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career 9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 3M+ (exception having first try at 3M+) 10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (4 had won a grade 1 chase) 7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase that season Only 1 of past 10 winners had previously won at Aintree, so course form is not vital. Other races Returning Bowl winner (First Lieutenant): 2P34 (0-1-4) Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 2P312FF524 (1-4-10) 7 of these 10 were sent off favourite King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 12 (1-1-2) Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 124123315 (3-3-9) Ryanair Chase winner (Dynaste): 41P (1-0-3) Previous season's Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Dynaste):3 (0-1-1) Betfred Goals Galore Chase winner (Unioniste): 66 (0-0-2) 4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, finishing 5U26 2 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase last time, finishing 12 4 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2224 3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in the Lexus, finishing 162 3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 133 3 of 10 winners ran in the Argento Chase, finishing 112 3 of 10 winners (3 of last 6) ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 333 2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 62 2 of 10 winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 11 Trainers The Pipe Yard (4-1-10) have won 4 of last 10, with David Pipe (2-0-4) training back to back winners in 2008 & 2009. Paul Nicholls (1-3-11) won the race in 2010 but he’s not had much luck in it other than that win. He’s saddled 4 beaten favourite in past 10 years (all 4 were sent off shorter than 6/4). Mouse Morris (1-0-1) has trained First Lieutenant to win this last year. Irish-trained runners (2-0-9) have won last 2, both winners ran in Lexus Chase that season. Price Only 1 of 10 favourites have won this since 2004 It has paid to oppose the favourites in this race, with just one winning in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 7 or 8 (or finished in first 3 in this race previously) - Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4) - Finished in the first 3 in a graded chase last time or unplaced in Gold Cup - Posted an RPR of 162+ in one or both of last 2 chase starts - Won over 3M+ - Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1) - Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase this season - Finished in first 6 in Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase or bypassed Cheltenham - Finished the first 4 in King George, Lexus and/or Hennessy Gold Cup - Finished in first 3 in Argento, Charlie Hall and/or 2013 Aintree Bowl - Trained by David Pipe or in Ireland - Favourite has a poor record.

[Aintree Hurdle > 3:05pm Thursday April 3rd]

Re: Aintree Hurdle > 3:05pm Thursday April 3rd AINTREE HURDLE TRENDS 2014 - [ thanks to racecaller for letting us use these trends ] The Aintree Hurdle takes place on the opening day of the 3-day Aintree Grand National Festival, on Thursday 3rd April. A grade 1 run over 2M 4F, it usually attracts several of the Champion Hurdle contenders as well some classy staying hurdlers. This year’s renewal has added interest as Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle winner, The New One, could take on several runners from the Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 4yo: 0-1-2 5yo: 2-4-19 6yo: 2-2-20 7yo: 3-5-27 8yo: 3-3-14 9yo: 0-2-7 10yo+: 0-1-5 All 10 winners have been aged 5 to 8, though that’s hardly surprising considering they have represented 85.1%of the total runners. 2 of 3 placed horses aged 9+ were placed in previous year’s renewal, other had won previous year’s Champion Hurdle and placed in that season’s Champion. Gender Mares (1-2-7) have gained 1 win & 2 places from 7 runners (7.44% of total runners) since 2004. Breeding Irish Bred: 8-4-43 French Bred: 1-9-30 British Bred: 1-3-13 American Bred 0-1-3 German Bred: 0-1-5 Irish bred horses have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 45.74% of total runners. Recent/Past Form 6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed hurdles start (4 exceptions unplaced in a grade 1, 3 at Cheltenham Festival) 9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 148+ last time (last 6 posted RPR of 154+ last time) 10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 hurdles that season 9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days 8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdles (both exceptions were Al Eile winning it for 2nd and 3rd time) 8 of 10 winners had 6 to 13 previous hurdles starts (both exceptions were Al Eile winning it for 2nd and 3rd time) 9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (exception finished 3rd in Champion Hurdle on previous start) 8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle (1 exception had yet to run in a grade 1 & other was 7th in Champion Hurdle last time) 6 of 10 winners had previously won a graded hurdle at Aintree Festival (3 of 4 others were having first course start) Other races International Hurdle winner (The New One): 0211 (2-1-4) Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 11 (2-0-2) Kingwell Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 21 (1-1-2) Ryanair Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 41 (1-0-2) Elite Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 7F1 (1-0-3) Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 22530F (0-3-6) Coral Cup winner (Whisper): 63 (0-1-2) Previous season's Neptune Novice Hurdle winner (The New One): 27 (0-1-2) Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 92 (0-1-2) Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 74 (0-0-2) Ascot hurdle winner (Annie Power): 34 (0-0-2) Holloway's Hurdle winner (Irish Saint): 78 (0-0-2) Highest placed finisher from Champion Hurdle: 2F23201735 (1-4-10) 5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Aintree Hurdle, finishing 6101F 5 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle last time, finishing 7F234 4 of 10 winners ran in the Ryanair Hurdle, finishing 6641 2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Red Mills Trial Hurdle, finishing 21 2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in International Hurdle, finishing 11 2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Doran Engineering Hurdle, finishing 11 Trainers Nicky Henderson (2-1-10) has trained Oscar Whiskey to win this in 2011 & 2012. Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-2) trained Khyber Kim, who won it in 2010 & The New One to finish close 2nd last year. Paul Nicholls (1-0-8) won this last year with Zarkandar, though his previous 7 runners had all finished unplaced. Willie Mullins (0-4-4) has saddled a placed finisher in 4 of the last 5 runnings. Irish-trained runners (5-7-27) have a fine record in this race, winning 6 of the last 11. They were not represented in 2004 and in the other 4 years they filled one of the places. Price 8 of 10 winners (last 6) were priced between 5/2 and 6/1 No strong trends on prices and while no winner has gone off bigger than 12/1, the favourite has a poor enough record. Favourites (2-4-12) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 6.37. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 5 to 8 - Irish bred - Had 6 to 13 career hurdles starts (won at least 3) - Second or third season hurdler (or previous winner) - Run in 2 to 5 hurdles this season - Posted an RPR of 154+ last time - Ran in the past 40 days - Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle - Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle - Previously won at Aintree Festival (or having first course start) - Ran in the Champion Hurdle or Coral Cup last time - Ran in the 2013 Ryanair and/or Aintree Hurdle - Finished in first 2 in Red Mills Trial, International and/or Dornan Engineering Hurdle - Trained by Nicky Henderson, Nigel Twiston-Davies or in Ireland.

[Anniversary 4-Y-O Novice Hurdle > 2:00pm Thursday April 3rd]

Re: Anniversary 4-Y-O Novice Hurdle > 2:00pm Thursday April 3rd ANNIVERSARY 4YO HURDLE TRENDS - [ thanks to racecaller for letting us use these trends ] The Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle is the opening race of this year’s Aintree Grand National meeting on Thursday 3rd April. The race is usually dominated by horses that ran in the Triumph Hurdle, though in recent years the Fred Winter has also been a good trial with the Fred Winter and Adonis Hurdles have both Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age Race for 4yos Gender Fillies (1-0-5) have gained 1 win (last year) from 5 runners in past 10 years. All 4 winning fillies in the past 20 years had bypassed Cheltenham. Breeding Irish bred: 4-9-47 French bred: 3-6-27 USA bred: 2-0-6 British bred: 1-4-30 Other: 0-1-9 9 of 10 winners were Irish, French or American bred. British bred horses finally won this in 2012, after a long drought, though British breds represented the first 3 in the betting. They had previously had a very poor record in the race, failing to win any of the previous 10. 10 of 10 winners were sired by a group winner on the flat 8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in group 1 on flat Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days 9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in the first 3 last time out Since race became a grade 1, 7 of 9 winners posted an RPR of 141+ last time 8 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a Cheltenham grade 1 last time) 9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over hurdles 9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 5+ lengths (1 exception won his 2 starts, both in graded company) 8 of 10 winners had previously contested a grade 1 (exceptions were 3rd in Fred Winter and Adonis Hurdle on previous starts) Since race became a grade 1, 7 of 9 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle Since race became a grade 1, 6 of 9 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle 9 of 10 winners had run on the flat (exception made racecourse debut in a French listed hurdle) Other Races Triumph Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 211212 (3-3-6) Highest placed finisher from Triumph Hurdle: 2111212127 (5-4-10) Fred Winter H'cap Hurdle winner (Hawk High): 5034 (0-1-4) Record of the first 3 in Fred Winter in this: 50273124 (1-3-8) Adonis Hurdle winner (Activial): 214113 (3-2-6) Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Ballyglasheen): 3134 (1-2-4) Scottish Triumph Hurdle winner (Broughton): 3 (0-1-1) Betfred Fun And Friendly Juvenile Hurdle winner (Baradari): 2B (0-1-2) Q Associates Juvenile Hurdle winner (Calipto): 25 (0-1-2) Dornan Engineering Ltd Introductory Juvenile Hurdle winner (Hawk High): 79 (0-0-2) 7 of 10 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle last time out, finishing 0211213 (1 exception 3rd in Fred Winter, one was 2nd in Supreme & other was 3rd in Adonis) 4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 1113 3 of 10 winners ran in the Finesse Juvenile hurdle, finishing 111 2 of 10 winners ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 11 2 of 10 winners ran in Betfred TV Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 1F Trainers Paul Nicholls (1-4-13) has gained 2 wins and 4 places from 14 runners since 2003. Nicky Henderson (1-2-8) trained Punjabi to finish 2nd in 2007, Binocular to win it in 2008 and was a bit unlucky to see Grandouet get brought down when going well in 2011. Gordon Elliot (0-1-2), John Quinn (0-1-2) & Evan Williams (0-1-2) have each gained 1 place from 2 runners since 2004. Irish trained horses (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places from approximately 9.3% of the total runners. 2 of 3 Irish-trained runners to make the frame had won a juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham at November or December meetings, other had won Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown. Price Since 2005 (when made a grade 1) 7 of 9 winners were sent off favourite Favourites (7-1-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 10.54. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Irish, French or USA bred gelding - Sired by a group winner on the flat (that won/placed in group 1) - Raced on the flat (rated 80+) - Run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (or unbeaten) - Won at least twice over hurdles - Finished in first 3 in Triumph Hurdle last time (posting RPR of 141+) - Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 - Won a hurdles race by 5 or more lengths (or unbeaten over hurdles) - First 3 in Finesse, Adonis and/or Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle - Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls - Favourite has a very strong record.

[AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th]

Re: Aintree Grand National > Saturday April 5th

Well played Bailey. My national hope of Godsmejudge might represent a shocking pick from me. Took e/w at 25's with VC first 4 places a week or so ago. Today it's 20's. Initially pleased, until I seen it's now NRNB, 5 places with the same firm, and I now realise he's got a Cheltenham entry which i'm never a fan of before Aintree. And he's too young. As the cool kids say, #mugpunter

godsmejudge set to miss the race

[Jump Racing Sunday March 30th]

Re: Jump Racing Sunday March 30th 3:00 Ascot – A.P. Security Juvenile Handicap Hurdle The booking of Tony McCoy for ZAMOYSKI is eyecatching. He was my selection for the Fred Winter but did not run, but this looks a much easier opportunity. A fair horse on the flat, he has done well in his three starts over hurdles, including finishing a decent third to Royal Irish Hussar on his debut who went on to start as one of the favourites for the Triumph Hurdle. On his final start he ran a good race behind Pearl Castle and a rating of 124 may under-estimate him.

[AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th]

Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th Crabbie's Grand National Chase [ trends from elsewhere with authors permission] Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 8 to 11 (9 or 10 especially) - Carrying 10-11 or more - Carrying no more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight - Officially rated 144 or higher (has been rated 148+ at some point in career) - Irish or French bred - Respect horses sired by Old Vic - Finished in first 5 on last completed start - Posted an RPR of 146+ in one or both of last 2 chase starts - Won no more than one chase this season - Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+ - Won over 3M+ - Run 3 to 6 times since September 2013 & run since 10th February 2014 - Run in at least 10 chases (winning at least 3) - Posted highest RPR at a left-handed track in a chase over 3M+ - Has posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+ - Has run over hurdles in 2014 - Finished in first 4 in a previous Topham, Becher or Aintree Grand National - Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh National - Finished in first 9 in 2013 Scottish National - Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup.

[Topham Chase > 3:40pm Friday April 4th]

Re: Topham Chase > 3:40pm Friday April 4th The Crabbie’s Topham Chase Class 1, Grade 3, £120,000 Total Prize Fund. Aintree, Friday, April 4, 2014, two miles, five furlongs, 110 yards. For five-year-olds and upwards. Penalties: after March 23, a winner of a chase 4lb, no penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed March 18, entries revealed March 19 (70 entries), six-day confirmations March 29, final declarations 10am, Thursday, April 3. [TABLE=width: 737]

[TR] [TD]Horse[/TD] [TD]Age[/TD] [TD]Owner[/TD] [TD]Trainer[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]AIMIGAYLE[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]David Cliff, Phillipa Clunes & P Mercer[/TD] [TD]Suzy Smith [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]AND THE MAN[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Little Green Syndicate[/TD] [TD]Nicky Richards [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BALINROAB (IRE)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Miss C Fordham[/TD] [TD]Richard Guest [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BALLYBOUGH GORTA (IRE)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Mickey Bowen[/TD] [TD]Peter Bowen [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BE MY DEPUTY (IRE)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Willie Scott[/TD] [TD]Lucinda Russell [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BENNYS MIST (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Mezzone Family[/TD] [TD]Venetia Williams [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BIG FELLA THANKS[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]Crossed Fingers Partnership[/TD] [TD]Tom George [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BISHOPSFURZE (IRE)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]The Gogo Partnership[/TD] [TD]Willie Mullins IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BRASS TAX (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Carolyn Kendrick[/TD] [TD]Ben Case [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BUCKERS BRIDGE (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Ann & Alan Potts Partnership[/TD] [TD]Henry de Bromhead IRE [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BUTHELEZI (USA)[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Bloomfields[/TD] [TD]John Ferguson [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]CEDRE BLEU (FR)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Paul Barber & The Johnson Family[/TD] [TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]CHAMPION COURT (IRE)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Mark Boothright[/TD] [TD]Martin Keighley [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]COOLKING[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Sir Peter & Lady Forwood[/TD] [TD]Lawney Hill [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]DOESLESSTHANME (IRE)[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]R J Hewitt[/TD] [TD]Richard Ford [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Options O Syndicate[/TD] [TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]DUNOWEN POINT (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Tim Leslie[/TD] [TD]Donald McCain [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EASTLAKE (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]J P McManus[/TD] [TD]Jonjo O’Neill [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]FAGO (FR)[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Andrea & Graham Wylie[/TD] [TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]FREDO (IRE)[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Jacky Allen[/TD] [TD]Ian Williams [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]GANSEY (IRE)[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]Trevor Hemmings[/TD] [TD]Sue Smith [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]GIFT OF DGAB (IRE)[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Gigginstown House Stud[/TD] [TD]Tony Martin IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]GIORGIO QUERCUS (FR)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Seasons Holidays[/TD] [TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]HE’LLBEREMEMBERED (IRE)[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Mary Lett/Paul Fahey[/TD] [TD]Paul Fahey IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]HUNT BALL (IRE)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Atlantic Equine[/TD] [TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]INSTANT IMPACKED (IRE)[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]M Kelleher[/TD] [TD]Robert Tyner IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]JIMMY THE HAT (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Annie Bowles[/TD] [TD]Gordon Elliott IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]KAUTO STONE (FR)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Robin Geffen[/TD] [TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]KIAN’S DELIGHT[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Roddy Owen, Paul Fullagar & Karen Bowen[/TD] [TD]Peter Bowen [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]KING EDMUND[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Anthony Ward-Thomas[/TD] [TD]Chris Gordon [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LAST TIME D’ALBAIN (FR)[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Fontstown Syndicate[/TD] [TD]Liam Cusack IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LOOSEN MY LOAD (IRE)[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Alan & Ann Potts Partnership[/TD] [TD]Henry de Bromhead IRE [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LOST LEGEND (IRE)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Gay Smith[/TD] [TD]Jonjo O’Neill [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LUCKY LANDING (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Gary Dewhurst & Tony Coyle[/TD] [TD]Tony Coyle [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]MA FILLEULE (FR)[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Simon Munir[/TD] [TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]MART LANE (IRE)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Jim Stewart[/TD] [TD]Dr Richard Newland [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]MASSINI’S MAGUIRE (IRE)[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]Alan Peterson[/TD] [TD]Tim Vaughan [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]MAX BYGRAVES[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]John Perriss[/TD] [TD]Kim Bailey [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]MINELLA FOR VALUE (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Maxilead Limited[/TD] [TD]John Butler [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]MISTER GREZ (FR)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Gilmans Point Racing Syndicate[/TD] [TD]Dan Skelton [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]MON PARRAIN (FR)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]John & Barbara Cotton[/TD] [TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PACHA DU POLDER (FR)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]The Stewart & Wylie Families[/TD] [TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PICKAMUS (FR)[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Neville Statham & Family[/TD] [TD]Henry Daly [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PLANET OF SOUND[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]Charles Lloyd-Baker[/TD] [TD]Philip Hobbs [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]POOLE MASTER[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]G Thompson[/TD] [TD]David Pipe [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]RAJDHANI EXPRESS[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Robert Waley-Cohen[/TD] [TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]RATHLIN[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Gigginstown House Stud[/TD] [TD]Mouse Morris IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]REAL MILAN (IRE)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Diana Whateley[/TD] [TD]Donald McCain [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]REBEL REBELLION (IRE)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Woodhouse, Sutton & Dobson[/TD] [TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]RENARD (FR)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]ROA Arkle Partnership[/TD] [TD]Venetia Williams [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SAVELLO (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Gigginstown House Stud[/TD] [TD]Tony Martin IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE)[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Liam Breslin[/TD] [TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SILVER ROQUE (FR)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Lord Vestey[/TD] [TD]Fergal O’Brien [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SIR DU BEARN (FR)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Mickey Bowen[/TD] [TD]Peter Bowen [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SOLIX (FR)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Paul Vogt[/TD] [TD]Ian Williams [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SOLL[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Derrick Mossop[/TD] [TD]Jo Hughes [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SPRING HEELED (IRE)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Dr Ronan Lambe[/TD] [TD]Jim Culloty IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]STANDING OVATION (IRE)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]The Bravo Partnership[/TD] [TD]David Pipe [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SWIFT ARROW (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Mrs C Strang Steel[/TD] [TD]Donald McCain [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SWING BILL (FR)[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]Halewood International Ltd[/TD] [TD]David Pipe [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]TAHITI PEARL (IRE)[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]M B & R H Scholey[/TD] [TD]Sue Smith [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]TANKS FOR THAT (IRE)[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Bridget Hanbury[/TD] [TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]TATENEN (FR)[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]The Stewart Family[/TD] [TD]Richard Rowe [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]TIPTOEAWAY (IRE)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Trevor Hemmings[/TD] [TD]Tim Easterby [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]TONER D’OUDAIRIES (FR)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Gigginstown House Stud[/TD] [TD]Gordon Elliott IRE [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]VESPER BELL (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Susannah Ricci[/TD] [TD]Willie Mullins IRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]VIVA COLONIA (IRE)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Bolingbroke Racing, Mersey Racing[/TD] [TD]Brian Ellison [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]WETAK (FR)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Terry Neill[/TD] [TD]David Pipe [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]YOU MUST KNOW ME (IRE)[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Alan & Ann Potts Partnership[/TD] [TD]Henry de Bromhead IRE [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]YOUR BUSY (IRE)[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]James Nash[/TD] [TD]James Nash IRE[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 70 entries 15 Irish-trained