[Preview reports 2015]

Re: Preview reports 2015 thanks ted for sharing

[Preview reports 2015]

Re: Preview reports 2015 CHELTENHAM PREVIEW EVENING at TOWCESTER RACECOURSE sponsored by Sky Bet, the panel comprised of jockey, Nick Scholfield (NS), who is connected to Paul Nicholls’ stable and gave an insight to his contenders, Timeform’s Chief Correspondent, Jamie Lynch (JL), RacingUK presenter and pundit Oli Bell (OB) and Niall Hannitty (NH), sportinglife.com’s value betting columnist Ben Linfoot (BL) and Michael Shinners (MS) was on hand for the latest market news. David Ord acted as MC and did a fine job to rattle through and keep order finishing at 10.00pm Supreme Novices’ Hurdle NS: L’Ami Serge’s Tolworth win on soft ground hard on the bridle was impressive on griund he is not at his best on having quickened up to win really well at Ascot. Douvan is more of a talking horse yet to do it at Grade 1 level unlike L’Ami Serge. JL: Willie Mullins has been saying some frightening things about Douvan. However, this means that you can back L’Ami Serge at a price you wouldn’t normally be able to do so. The speed horses often don’t win the Supreme and Douvan is speed whereas L’Ami is a grinder. OB: L’Ami Serge is the play as there is not much between him and Douvan on official figures but he is a much bigger price and Henderson was confident about at his media day last week. NH: Douvan looks even better coming into the Festival than Vautour and Faugheen did last year. I think L’Ami Serge will be better switching to this left-handed course. Qewy wants softer ground and Jollyallan doesn’t jump well enough. Douvan looks the real deal and I’m a massive fan of his for this race. BL: Douvan is way too short and worth taking on. He has won twice on soft ground on right-handed tracks in Ireland so this is a different test. Vautour and Champagne Fever were proven Grade 1 winners when they won the Supreme for the same conditions. Vautour isn’t and he is a shorter price than them. Shaneshill was too keen when beaten by No More Heroes and dropping back to 2m he is interesting. I also like Qewy and his form was franked at the weekend by Cardinal Walter. Shaneshill at 12/1 is my idea of the best bet. MS: There was money for Qewy and Seeedling today but generally it’s all about Douvan but there is no rush to back him as I’ll be stunned if you don’t see 9/4 or 5/2 on the day. Arkle Trophy NS: From Walsh’s point of view of Un De Sceaux, Cheltenham is different track to Leopardstown where there is only one downhill fence so his jumping will have to be 110%. Cheltenham can catch a horse like him out as he will going so fast. Peck at one downhill fence and his game could be over. JL: You can’t back a horse at 4/7 in the Arkle. Court Minstrel is a horse to have caught my eye. He was a shorter price than Vibrato Valtat when they ran against each other earlier in the season and I will have a swing at him at a biggish price. OB: A hard race to punt in. Vibrato Valtat is the obvious one to finish second given the way the race will pan out and on general ability. Josses Hill hasn’t taken to chasing and they just keep coming up with excuses with him. NH: I wouldn’t have a bet. Un De Sceaux will be a fair hair-raising ride though and Vibrato Valtat can get a lovely toe into the race. The forecast from Wednesday onwards is spring-like weather and that will suit Sgt Reckless who looks the best of those at double figure prices. BL: You don’t need many reasons to take on a horse at 4/7 in the Arkle and Un De Sceaux has fallen and never run at Cheltenham before. I do think that Josses Hill will put in an improved effort jumping at championship pace though. MS: Tony Martin stated he might send Ted Veale here and nick some prize money when I was on a panel with him last week. Champion Hurdle NS: I can’t see much pace in the race and can see Ruby popping along on Faugheen and keeping it simple and having the race run to suit committing from two out. He has a very good cruising speed but can quicken off it. JL: What has Faugheen beaten? The answer is everything. He has just gobbled them all up. His time splits suggests that he will have the race sewn up between the last two flights. This might be the last chance you get to back Faugheen at odds-against in his career. I think he is outstanding. Jezki would probably be beating The New One if he was running in the same races he has been winning in Britain. OB: I think Faugheen is a monster. It’s the ‘in’ thing at the moment to question his form but his season is all gearing towards Cheltenham. Was last year’s Champion Hurdle brilliant? I don’t think Jezki has looked brilliant this year and Faugheen looks a level above all of them. I can’t have The New One. NH: I am really against The New One even ignoring his Haydock run and especially if it gets tactical. Jezki can still be a bit keen but he will be thereabouts and appeals each way. Faugheen could have the race run to suit. Hurricane Fly’s brain is at Leopardstown rather than Cheltenham. BL: I can’t think of a tactical situation in which Faugheen will be vulnerable. Of all the Mullins hotpots, he is the one I am most interested in backing. MS: Jezki has been popular each-way and will be on the day Day 1 Shoulder Races NS: In the novice handicap chase I ride Ceasar Milan who beat Whisper at Exeter on New Year’s Day. He is unexposed and very much improved and jumps well and reminds me a bit of Hunt Ball who won the race a few years ago. I schooled him last week and he went well. OS: I would side with Glens Melody at the prices to beat Annie Power in the Mares Hurdle who has not had the ideal preparation. On good ground Buywise will be a better jumper and he can go well if he runs in the 3m handicap chase. He has other entries, maybe the Plate is where he will run, but he will be interesting wherever he goes. NH: Ned Stark has been well found in the Ultima but I can see why. BL: Grand Vision is a cliff horse of mine and I’ll back him. He is in handicap chase and four miler. I also like Thomas Crapper who saves his best for Cheltenham and is better over 2m4f and has been running over 2m and he appeals in the novice handicap chase. MS: Cause Of Causes has been well backed today for the NH Chase following news Jamie Codd will probably ride. Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle NS: There is a massive doubt over Nichols Canyon’s jumping. Parlour Games can be the one, though whether a bigger field will suit him I don’t know. JL: This race is ripe for a bet right now. Nichols Canyon was a mudder on the Flat and has only run in testing conditions over hurdles so the ground is the question mark with him. Parlour Games might be a bully beating small fields. Windsor Park doesn’t jump well enough and Outlander wasn’t fancied when he won last time. Ordo Ab Chao’s price is all wrong. His last win is strong form and 16/1 is too big. OB: Ordo Ab Chao is too big a price and showed a tough attitude to beat a good field at Cheltenham. I am amazed he is 16/1. I do think Windsor Park will improve for the step up in trip but I won’t be surprised if he reverses form with Outlander and Nichols Canyon from his last two runs. NH: An end-to-end gallop will suit Outlander and they changed the way they rode him last time. BL: There was no fluke about Ordo Ab Chao last time and he’s a bet at 16/1. Outlander is the best of those at the top of the market. MS: The money horse is definitely Outlander. Barry Connell made Martello Tower his best chance of the meeting in the Albert Bartlett on a panel in Ireland last week and he beat Martello Tower last time out in a Grade 2 quote easily. RSA Chase NS: Experience counts in the RSA and two runs over fences isn’t ideal for Don Poli. Kings Palace likes being up front in small fields and he will be more vulnerable here. It’s a massive negative he has not run in bigger field. Coneygree at 11/2 is the best bet of the Festival if he runs here. I rode Virak at Kempton and thought there was no way he could keep up that gallop. If you can back Coneygree NRNB then do so. JL: The longer it goes on then the more likely Coneygree will run here. We could be talking about Don Poli being Gold Cup favourite next season so if you do fancy him, and you should, this is the horse why other horses are being moved around for. He stays and jumps and is ideal for the RSA. OB: I don’t think Kings Palace is a horse I want to beat at the prices bearing in mind what happened at the Festival last year after beating small fields and he has been beating small fields again. I think Coneygree will run in the Gold Cup so best back Don Poli now. NH: This looks a strong race and I am a massive Kings Palace fan. I am not sure he needs to bully small fields. Don Poli is the other one I really like. BL: Don Poli lacks chasing experience with two starts over fences but a strong pace can suit him if Coneygree and Kings Palace run. I have backed Valseur Lido but I think he will run in the JLT. MS: Don Poli is sure to go off shorter than 7/2 and especially if Coneygree doesn’t run. If Mullins mops up on Day 1 then even more so. Queen Mother Champion Chase NS: The bleed incurred by Sprinter Sacre wouldn’t worry me at all. All horses have a little bleed at some point. He will so much happier when he gets better ground. I was at Ditcheat this morning and Dodging Bullets looks tremendously well. Paul fancies him and Mr Mole to run very well. Paul had Dodging Bullets trained to the minute at Ascot, he was 110%, but Sprinter Sacre was about 80% so he can turn around that form. He will be cantering two out. JL: Sprinter Sacre splits opinion. The more I think about it, the more I think he is a good bet. He is the best horse since Arkle on Timeform ratings but after his troubles some will think he is hard to back. It was race against time to run at Ascot and everyone there felt he looked a bit light as he tried to get fit in time. Now he has put the conditioning and muscle on he only needs to improve around 7lb to win. It’s a black and white view but that’s what I am arguing. OB: Physically Sprinter Sacre had improved to my eye when I saw him last week compared to when I saw him at Ascot but what would concern me is he didn’t go through with his challenge and he bled. I couldn’t back a bleeder for any race at under 3/1. Sire De Grugy’s Chepstow’s win should have taken something out him being so close to the Festival. Dodging bullets isn’t the same horse in the spring so I come down to, and I never thought I would say this, Mr Mole. He could be the jumps edition of Noble Mission who was a quirky horse who then turned it around on the Flat. NH: I like Sprinter Sacre at 3/1. If he is back to 80% of where he was then he can win. If he can improve like Sire De Grugy did between his first and second run then he will win. BL: Henderson hasn’t convinced me that Sprinter Sacre is back to his best. Champagne Fever seems to have been forgotten but I am with Mr Mole. I thought he was unbelievable at Newbury and 10/1 is a decent bet about this reformed character MS: Sprinter Sacre is a public horse and by far our worst result and I will be amazed if he doesn’t go off favourite. Day 2 Shoulder Races NS: I think Paul Nicholls will run three in the Fred Winter and Noel Fehily will probably be on All Yours and I think they like his chances. Aux Ptit Soins has only run three times and has been give a mark of 139 for the Coral Cup. The horses he has worked against at Wincanton suggest he is much better than that rating. They are hoping he could be a Grade 1 race. Moon Racer has been put away for the Bumper since winning in October and he stands out for me of all the British horses I’ve seen. JL: I like Mick Jazz for the Fred Winter who looks tailor made for the race and a lot of people at Timeform have backed him and backed him heavily. Killultagh Vic only has a mark of 135 in the Coral Cup and his form is better than that, he is of interest NRNB. NH: Starchitect in first-time blinkers would be interesting in the Fred Winter. OB: Two British horses to catch my eye in the Bumper are See The World and Wait For Me. Go and watch See The World win if you haven’t seen it and you will see why. Wait For Me won a traditionally good bumper well on his debut and Hobbs has won this race recently. BL: Volnay De Thaix appeals in the Coral Cup on his second to Rock On Ruby and I think he could develop into a Grade 1 horse. Ryanair Chase NS: I spoke with Joe Tizzard recently and he says Cue Card is in really good order. He will appreciate the better ground and drop back in trip. I schooled Wonderful Charm last week and I think he has had a little tinker with his wind since he ran in the King George. JL: Cue Card has the back form but his price of 11/2 assumes he is nearly back to his best but he has that to prove. Don Cossack is a boring a favourite who has been beating small fields and fell in the RSA last year so I am left with Ma Filleule. OB: Ma Filleule thrives in the spring and I think the Ascot Chase in which she was second to Balder Succes is strong form. I wouldn’t rule out Cue Card who goes well at Cheltenham in March and will appreciate being dropped back in trip. He has a horse to write off at your peril. NH: A lot of Don Cossack’s form is right-handed so 7/2 doesn’t excite me. I like John’s Spirit at the prices. BL: Don Cossack is a bad favourite at 7/2 given his small field, soft ground, right-hand course profile. Johns Spirit is better on the other course at Cheltenham. Hidden Cyclone each-way is the value having finished second in this race last year. MS: Certainly the momentum horse has been Ma Filleule. World Hurdle NS: I won on Saphir Du Rheu over fences and he would have the speed for 2½m and is a class animal. I was impressed with him beating Reve De Sivola on soft ground and he will be better on better ground. I personally don’t think Zarkandar is an out-and-out stayer. Rock On Ruby is very much ground dependent over this trip and he can run a big race if it’s good ground JL: This is a second division World Hurdle so I prefer to look quite deep. Whisper won at the meeting last year in the Coral Cup achieving a rating that would have finished third or fourth in the World Hurdle. He is fresh are an abandoned chasing career. It hasn’t worked out for Briar Hill this season but it looked like he was coming back last time and he is the other horse I would consider at a nice price. OB: I don’t have that strong a view. I haven’t worked out whether Zarkandar is a monkey or not. He has probably had enough chances. Cole Hardden has reasonable form for a 25/1 chance. NH: Rock On Ruby is the one at the prices and drying ground will really suit. All his half-sisters stay well and he has the class of course. Celestial Halo was second in a Champion Hurdle and almost won this. Rock On Ruby has won a Champion Hurdle. BL: The Irish look a couple of notches below what is required. Un Temps Pour Tout will come on for his Cleeve Hurdle a ton, he stays and 12/1 is a bet. MS: It might be 11/2 the field and I imagine Saphir Du Rheu will just about go off favourite. Thursday Shoulder Races: NS: I have schooled Ptis Zig since his fall and he has shown no ill effects. He will have learned from that and done him some good. The 2m4f of the JLT is made for him. Vautour jumped adequate at Leopardstown last time out but if he is good as Ruby says he should win. JL: Regal Encore took off over 3m last time in the finish suggesting he is a Pertemps type. I also like Brother Brian for the same race. OB: Brother Brian is one of my strongest handicap fancies and he runs in the Pertemps. He was doing his best work late on behind Rock On Ruby last time and his breeding says he will improve for this step up in trip. That run says he is better than his handicap mark of 144. NH: Regal Encore for the Pertemps. BL: Monetaire has been saved for the Festival since he won at Newbury in November. If it’s good ground he will go for the Plate according to Pipe rather than the Grand Annual. I also like Un Ace for the Plate if he runs here rather than the Grand Annual Triumph Hurdle NS: The New Course is a much more galloping track and that might be against Peace And Co who might not finish off his race properly if he pulls too hard so for that reason I will go with Hargam who is tough, uncomplicated, jumps well and stays well. JL: Peace And Co is out on his own. People keep telling me he is a terrible price but he is that far ahead on Timeform ratings on his Doncaster win that he would have won every Triumph bar Our Conor’s in the last 15 years. The Irish challenge is threadbare and I don’t think they will get into the first four. OB: Pulled a cart and still bolted up at Doncaster. He was being taught to settle last time and one concern is if they try that again and he pulls. As long as relaxes he is a certainty. Beltor is talented but in terms of natural talent you will struggle to see a better horse at this stage of their career NH: 7/4 is too short about Peace And Co. I really like Hargam at 7/1 each way. Lightly raced, he was impressive last time and proven on the track. BL: I don’t think Beltor has the stamina for a Triumph or the Irish are up to it. My main worry about Peace And Co is whether the occasion will get to him. At the prices Hargam appeals most. MS: I would guess some bookmakers will pay four places this year. Pain Au Chocolat is a slow burener but very talented and he looks a fair each way bet. Gold Cup NS: Silviniaco Conti had stomach ulcers last year but he has been finishing his races off better now that has been sorted. He has no excuses now so, for me, this is his Gold Cup. If he doesn’t win it this year he never will. Bobs Worth was favourite last year and has had only one run since when Barry was easy on him. He improved loads for his first run last season when he won the Lexus and is too big a price. JL: The cheekpieces have been crucial to Silviniaco Conti. What sort of price is he backable? At 4/1 I would happily weigh in at. The best novice last year was Holywell and he has had one target all year and he is the best of the rest. OB: Silviniaco Conti has been unfairly uncrabbed for last year. It was a freak race. I can forgive him wandering around last year. Cheekpieces help him keep straight this time and h is one of the best bets of the Festival. It would great if Many Clouds won and he showed himself to be versatile winning at Cheltenham off a slow pace. Coneygree is a save. NH: The forecast is a worry for Many Clouds. If Bobs Worth or Lord Windermere win the Gold Cup again I’ll eat my feet. My one ante-post bet is Djakadam. There is a question mark about the trip and he is tight enough now at 10/1. I can make a case that Boston Bob is overpriced for a horse who gets it together in the spring. BL: Road To Riches at 33/1 is my one shining light in my ante-post portfolio for me. I think the track will play to his strengths. Silviniaco Conti is the best horse in race but is he the best horse at Cheltenham over 3m2½f? I’m worried about the ground for Many Clouds. Sam Winner was onmy beaten 2l in Lexus and won at the course earlier in the season and he has the tools to run a huge race being a strong stayer, especially if headgear is applied. MS: I’ll be amazed of Carlingford Lough is not backed for McCoy. The other money horse can be Djakadam on the Walsh factor. Friday Shoulder Races: NS: I rode Jolly’s Cracked It in the Betfair Hurdle who was stone last and didn’t jump well but he flew in the home straight. If he can jump he can go well in the Martin Pipe and he has had a lot of help since then. Harry Fry is very sweet on Thomas Brown in the Albert Bartlett. JL: I like Ordo Ab Chao for the Neptune so I also like Value At Risk for the Albert Bartlett who did well to finish half a length behind him last time. He would need to settle better though. Make A Track is block entered at the Festival and interesting wherever he turns up moving from the retired Charlie Swan to Gordon Elliott. OB: Arzal is an interesting one for the Imperial Cup and County Hurdle. Jolly’s Cracked It would be interesting in the Martin Pipe but he is also in the Coral Cup. Fry told me there isnt much between him and Jollyallan who is fancied for the Supreme. In the Foxhunters’ I like Current Event who has won his last seven races and this has been the plan for a while. NH: I like Martello Tower for the Albert Bartlett. Moving back up to 3m will really suit him and he is overpriced. BL: I have backed Hawk High for the County Hurdle at 25/1. He likes good ground and he only got beat by Glingerburn last time giving him weight who has been impressive in victory since. MS: The Game Changer has been the steamer in the County and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bryan Cooper rode him. He has gone from Charlie Swan to Gordon Elliott and not run for three months. Charity Bets NS: Hargam (Triumph Hurdle) JL: Value At Risk (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) OB: Brother Brian e/w (Pertemps Final) NH: Djakadam (Gold Cup) BL: Un Temps Pour Tout (World Hurdle)

[Preview reports 2015]

Re: Preview reports 2015 Ballygar Johnny Burke (JB), Paul Carberry (PC), Gavin Lynch (GL), Johnny Ward (JW), Kevin Blake (KB), Sean Boyce (SB), Graham Rossiter (GR) of Starsports Supreme. KB. Douvan is going to be very short for a horse that has been training quite light. Apparently they struggle to keep condition on him. Rick concerned that he has been on the go a long time. Fan of the horse but wont back him at 7/4. Having said all that, Willie sees no flaws in the horse. JW - Willie says its "as nice a horse as we have ever sent to Cheltenham". A lovely big horse that settles very well. Hurricane Fly's lass says this is as nice a horse as the Fly. An Arkle winner next year PC - The fav is very good, a big scopey horse, but wondering if this is a bit quick for him this year? Horses this size normally take a good year to grow up and settle into the job properly. GL - Willies team are very bullish, but worries that he has not won left handed yet JB - We tried to take on Douvan at Gowran - he is exceptional. Sizing John was much better at Leop (ran a bit dead at Gowran) though and has a sporting chance. Looking forward to the rematch. SB -Points out that this is not a great race for favourites over the years. GR - Hendersons like L'Ami Serge a lot, and expect improvement on better ground. Arkle. JB. Un De Sceaux is a freak. He has vever went so fast in a chase as he dis against him last time. Can't be beaten. PC. UDS is a machine - took him on with Foildubh, but had to stop him to a trot to get some air. Made Clarcam look like a handicapper - only a fall will stop him. KB. Willie is not worried about the ground at all - this is "bar a fall" stuff. GL. This will be the most exciting 4 mins you will have in 2015 (speak for yourself...SB). Didn't run last year to give the Fly a chance. Most exciting jumper since Carvills Hill. You can keep your Frankels and the rest - this is racing. Everyone else riding theirs for 2nd. JW. Smashing is a really good EW bet at about 33/1. Josses Hill is a horrible jumper GR. Court Minstrel travels well and could finish 2nd or 3rd Champion Hurdle. KB. Faughen is a stupid price. You can pick holes in his form all day long. He has never been properly tested and is not a slick jumper. Jessie was delighted last year that AP was required elsewhere and Barry could ride Jezki. Jezki is rock solid EW, not at all worried about the prep. Plinth made an arse of the front running last time. JW. I was offered a leg in Faugheen one night at the dogs (locally bred in Galway). All the family were duds, and this is the beauty of NH racing. will be 7/4 on the Tuesday. PC. Faugheen is hard to oppose. Artic Fire has a squeek and may be 2nd. AP set it up for the Fly last twice on Jezki. GL. Faugheen is 8/8 and was brilliant at Leop last year. Dan Skelton saddled him at Ascot and reckoned he was the fattest horse he ever saddled. Ruby was embarrassed by his size at Kempton. The New One only beat Diakali about a neck at Aintree, and he is kept away from the good horses at Willies in case they pick up "a dose of the slows". Faugheen wins 6L. Artic Fire the EW bet as both the ground and the track will suit. Mares. PC. Annie looks a fair machine, will be very hard to beat if she runs here. JW. AP was wearing a hood in her work last time at Willies. She is not quite straightforward but is vastly superior to Quevaga! She is buzzy at home so wait until the day to make sure she is in one piece. KB. Annie is an absolute good thing. She is easier to train that Quevega, she never actually got injured but was rested as the felt there was one coming on. Put in all your doubles, trebles etc. GL. AP is working very well and will be 4/5 on the day. Se has a stone in hand on ratings. Glens Melody w/o is the bet at 7/4 off Skybet, except they won't take a fiver off ya! Best Bets and other Day 1 stuff... KB. Jezki EW JW. Douvan is the best bet. Very Wood or Wounded Warrior in the 4miler, whichever goes there. PC. Wounded Warrior in the RSA, Very Wood in the 4 miler. Actually both should run in the 4miler rather than take on Don Poli. UDS will win also. GL. Faugheen. the Young Master in the 4miler if he runs. Only has Meades horses to beat and going left handed will suit JB. Smashing EW GR. Generous Ransom in the Novice Chase. Is ahead of the handicapper Neptune. JW. Nichols Canyon has a horrible leg action but loved what he did at Leops last time. Outlander may be better value though. KB. NC looks like he is doing the breaststroke, the action is a big worry on good ground. However, he has won two G1s and settled much better last time. Willie says he won't front run at Chelt and should stay. Tell us More is working much better inn the last week also. GL. Willie has won this 3 times in the last 7 years, yet NC has a low profile for some reason. This is probably because he is not a flash work horse, but he is honest and will stay. Only 3 count in this - Outlander, NC and Windsor Park (not off a yard last time). Reckons that NC would bite you if you tried to pass him. SB. Prefers Outlander to NC PC. Impressed with NC last time, but when he asked Ruby about him and compared him a bit to the Fly, Ruby said "he's no Hurricane Fly". GR. Not a fan of NC on good ground. John Gosden kept him to soft ground for a reason. JB. An Outlander fan. Windsor Park has not tried this year though. Mentioned Beast of Burden but PC said he choked when he rode him in a bumper so unless he got his wind done... RSA. SB. Coneygree looks like going to the Gold Cup GL. Would love to back Don Poli for next years Gold Cup - fine big 3m chaser. Worried he has only ran over fences twice though. Should win and could be only 7/4 on the day. Kings Palace has been in more small fields than a farmer in Clare and is not a good enough jumper for Cheltenham. Should be a million. GR. Big Don Poli fan, a great run as a 5yo last year. PC. Kings Palace will really struggle to get past DP. Apache Stronghold didn't get home against DP. JW. Ruby said after Gowran he should run in the 4miler. If he runs here though 7/2 is a massive price, he is flawless. A lump on job. (Note: JW is enjoying his Guinness by this stage.) JB. The only competition here to DP is Coneygree if he rund, a joy to watch. Would love to ride him over a fence. Champion Chase. JB. Barry thinks SS is bombing it again. Just got tired last time and not knocked about. PC. Not really impressed with SS last time. Middle part of the race good but not the start or end. Can't have a horse that burst for a CChase. GL. SS has had more heart palpatations than JW on a saturday night in Coppers - not going to do it. Was all over Champagne Fever but gone off him in favour of Sire De Grugy. Still getting over last years Arkle. A bad Tingle Creek so not keen on Dodging Bullets. KB. Didn't like SS last time - Barry was afraid to put him under any pressure. A big hole in him now. 3 races quickly might catch up on SDG. CF a solid EW bet. Day 2 best bets... GR. 7/2 Don Poli an incredible bet JB. Coneygree if he runs PC. Outlander in the Neptune GL. Nichols Canyon. Zarin in the Fred Winter off 133. 3rd to Peace and Co. Hostile Fire in the same race - not overly tried yet JW. Don Poli is the bet of the week KB. Don Poli SB. All Yours in the Fred Winter if he runs JLT. PC. Rides out Apache Stronghold every day. Hard to beat if at his best on the day. the hill will help him. Works with Road to Riches. All Noels horse are in good health and great form. KB. Vautour is one of the hype horses of the week. Dosen't like the way he jumps. Big fan of AS. JW. Vautour was flawless at Navan, but jumped terrible the next time. Willie is sure he can jump better. Has lost his "wow" for Vautour. GL. Will only bet in running depending how Vautour and Apache Stronghold settle early on. GR. They are not seeing any money for Vautour yet. Between AS and Valseur Lido JB. Vautour only ok the last day. Also between AS and Valseur Lido Ryanair. GR. All of Johns Sprit's wins have been on the old course, and he is 0/3 on the new course KB. Don Cossack is a funny horse, a big massive scopey horse and has finally started to finish his races well. Does nothing in front though so the pace of the race should help. JW. Saw DC up the north, a tank of a horse. Very taken by him. 7/2 is skimpy enough though, could be 5s on the day. GL. Likes Ballynagour EW. Easiest winner at Cheltenham last year, travels great. Needs a big break between races though. If Tom Scu can stay on board he is a decent ew bet. SB. Points out that Ireland are 0/10 in this race. Massive fan of MA Filleule, who comes alive in the spring GR. Getting 6lb makes MF a cert in his eyes JB. DC has finally got his act together. Certain he would have beaten Champagne Fever last time. Balder Success a good EW bet though. Stayers Hurdle. SB. Remember this is being run on a different course now! GL. Not having a bet, could pick 5 and get it wrong. Annie Power should run here and she would win it. KB. Have a swing at a big price on Jetson at about 20/1 (cue slagging from JW about coming all the way to Ballygar and giving the working punters Jetson. Jetson is a rat of a horse!) JW. Likes Monksland EW. jumped very well in the Galmoy, and the rest are much of a muchness. PC. Monksland has been a nightmare to keep sound, has legs like glass. Worked well at Fairyhouse last week. Hates sticky ground. Has a real good chance. Let slip that Rich Coast worked well with Monksland and Road to Riches and he rode him in the work. Runs in the County. JB. Rode work upsides Lieutenant Colonel about 10 days ago and he is in very good form. SB. Saphir Du Rheu wins this. Zarkandar a doubtful stayer. Day 3 Naps.. KB. Jetson EW JW. Apache Stronghold GL. Edeymi and Light Duties in the Pertemps PC. Que Card in the Ryanair. Loves AS but won't tip him JB. Lieutenant Colonel based on his work. GR. MA Filleule, almost unfair that she gets 6lb. GB. Saphir Du Rheu in the stayers. Triumph. GR. Peace and Co is rock solid. Very strong vibes from Nicky. They think its a machine. Hargam will travel as well as anything so maybe back to lay on Betfair. GL. You can't win the Triumph on the bridle, and Willies horses are all stayers. Kalkir has not been right to date, and is interesting at the price. This is 2m1 up a steep hill. You need to stay. KB. Not a fan of PandC, too freegoing to win a Triumph. Dicosimo a real big chasing type so this won't suit. JW. PandC as the Irish lot aren't very good. He will be swinging coming into the straight and there is no faulting his attitude. Beltor is a good honest hurdler and will give you an EW run for your money. PC. You need to stay 1m4 to 1m6 on the flat to win a Triumph - stayers win this race. No need for a bet here. JB. Golden Doyen EW at a big price. Albert Bartlett. JW. Black Hercules was the hype horse in last years bumper but didn't do the business. No More Heroes is a nice bet for this race - the apple of Gordon Elliots eye. GR. Value At Risk has a definite chance, the horses only entry and he gallops all day. GL. BH will take a lot of beating, lots of talk about him in Willies. JB. VAR is a great bet at 10s KB. No More Heros - things went wrong at Leop and he scoped very badly afterwards (4/5). They think he is a Gold Cup horse. PC. NMH schooled at punch recently and they told him his bottle had gone jumping wise. Windsor Park schooled the same session and he won it on Waxies Dargle! Gold Cup. GL. This was a poor race last year, and it seems winning a handicap gives you a good chance this year too. Silviniaco Conti is 0/3 at Chelt. Djakadam worth a small EW bet. JB. There are no negatives about Road To Riches. Lord Windemere was gifted the Gold Cup last year. PC. Last year was the slowest Gold Cup he has ever ridden in. KB. Very wide open, and better than last year. Happy to take on SC - he was wobbling like JW after 4 Bacardi Breezers up the hill last year - won't get home. Djakadam may have the X Factor the rest don't have. Fat as a pig in the Hennesy, and won at Gowran when not fit either off top weight. Shocked if Ruby won't ride him. May fail through inexperience but price worth it. PC. R2R won the Galway Palte well, and will be better going left handed. Should love the ground. No negatives against him. Had desperate ulcers for a long while but that is sorted now. Still improving. SB. Very keen on R2R. 25e Charity Bets... KB. Djakadam JW. Don Poli GL. Roi Des Francs in the Martin Pipe, only been with Willie a few months PC. Rich Coast in the County (after some badgering earlier) JB. Value At Risk in the AB GR. Monksland in the Stayers SB. Some Plan in the Supreme Also Blue Hell and Sizing Granite on Sat

[cheltenham 2015 - chat thread]

Re: cheltenham 2015 - chat thread an early 14 day forecast: http://www.yourweather.co.uk/weather_Cheltenham-Europe-United+Kingdom-Gloucestershire--1-32832.html

[cheltenham 2015 - chat thread]

Re: cheltenham 2015 - chat thread heres a link for the weights of the 11 handicaps at the festival http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Weights-unveiled-for-11-Festival-handicaps.html?soid=1110108263682&aid=N-MGp9Tfcu0

[Preview reports 2015]

Re: Preview reports 2015 taken from else where with permission Notes taken from Preview night in Balbriggan with Gary O'Brien (GOB), Kevin Ryan (KR), Andrew Lynch (AL), Tony Martin ™ and Paul Ryan (PR) from Paddy Power on Thursday 19th February. Supreme Novices: All were unanimous that Douvan was the one to beat. PR says he is like to shorten close to evens on the day so best to back early. He described him as "bombproof". KR was all about Douvan with Mullins telling him "he's as nice a horse as we've ever had" and even Mullins' mother saying if she could have any horse in the stable it'd be him over even Faugheen. The ew value all agreed was Shaneshill at 12/1. Neptune Novices Hurdle: KR was all about Windsor Park regardless of whether he runs here or in the Albert Bertlett saying he likes nice ground and Pat Smullen thinks very highly of the horse. Also likes Outlander if Windsor Park doesn't go in this. TM reckons Windsor Park is one of the bets of the meeting with AL saying likewise, that he's a great ew bet, hoping that he runs in this rather than the Albert Bartlett. PR thinks Nichols Canyon is a good horse but the vibes for Tell Us More are not good coming from the stable. Albert Bartlett: All didn't like the chances of Black Hercules and look elsewhere. KR likes Value at Risk saying he's a decent horse and the trip should suit. Martello Tower is excellent value ew too. AL thinks likewise about Martello Tower, the trip will suit (unbeaten over 3 miles) and at 10/1 is great value. TM also likes Martello Tower and also likes No More Heroes saying he will be bang there provided he jumps better than last time. PR thinks both Martello Tower and Value at Risk have great chances while No More Heroes is well worth a bet (which GOB agreed with too). Triumph Hurdle: None are convinced with Peace and Co saying he carries his head too high and has been beating pigs and is too short in the betting. PR says Peace and Co will be the lay of the week and thinks Hargam has a better chance. Petite Parisienne has done nothing wrong either but betting wise it's wide open. TM likes Hargam with AL agreeing with him being a value bet at 5/1 and Petite Parisienne will be best of be Irish. KR says lay Peace and Co and lump on Petite Parisienne saying "he will win". KR reckons Dicosimo is definitely one for the future saying he may well turn out to be the best horse to emerge from this race but may not win this. Arkle Chase: All adamant Un de Sceaux won't be touched barring a fall. KR says no to Josses Hill and Clarcam w/o Un de Sceaux or ew is an excellent bet, he jumps brilliantly which TM agreed with. RSA Chase: PR says Don Poli will go here not the 4 miler and will definitely shorten. Also impressed with Kings Palace but thinks he and Coneygree will cut each other's throats contesting the lead. KR likes Coneygree over Kings Palace but thinks Don Poli has rock solid form and will win this. The Young Master is a great bet in the 4 miler instead of this. AL has been impressed with Don Poli but is also a huge Coneygree fan. TM says he would buy Don Poli over any other horse but also says Coneygree has an excellent chance too. Heathfield in the 4 miler for him. JLT Chase: PR says Paddy will be laying Vautour, reckons all things with him are possibly not as they should be. AL thinks 9/4 is too short for Vautour but David Casey fancies Vautour and all agreed he is one of the best judges of a horse around. Pitt Zig is a no after his fall but if Gitane du Berlais is a great price if he goes. KR says Valsur Lido will turn the form with Apache Stronghold and hasn't been impressed with Vautour the last twice. TM thinks Vautour is the one to beat if on form but Ptit Zig has a good chance. Champion Chase: None are convinced that Sprinter Sacre is as good as he was and will be a lay by bookies. TM says though if he is back to anywhere near his best he will win. PR thinks Hidden Cyclone represents excellent value and both KR and TM thought likewise. For him Champagne Fever is too short however KR thinks he has a good chance as did GOB. While all agreed Dodging Bullets is the form horse his record at Cheltenham is shocking. Mixed feelings over Sire de Grugy, AL yes but KR and PR no. Big no for Mr Mole from AL describing him as "a pig". Ryanair Chase: KR and AL not keen on Balder Succes or Cue Card but AL thinks Johns Spirit is good value. Both TM and KR are very much in favour of Don Cossack calling him one of the best bets of the meeting. Champion Hurdle: KR questions Faugheens jumping at times and while he and AL reckon he's been impressive but is very short PR says there's no holes to him and TM described him as "home and hosed". The New One has not impressed PR and KR with his last run especially and both think Jezki may be regressing based on this seasons form against Hurricane Fly but GOB expects him to be in the top 3. PR thinks Hurricane Fly at 8/1 is great ew value while AL and TM said the same for Arctic Fire at 14/1. KR feels the ground is crucial to Hurricane Fly's chances, slow ground and a stamina test is his best chance rather than quick ground and a speed test. World Hurdle: Conflicting accounts as to whether Annie Power will run in this or the Mares Hurdle. AL thinks she will run here and expects her to win if so. TM expects her to go the Mares route. PR says More of That holds no value at 5/1 but he and KR think Saphir du Rheu has a fantastic chance. He also thinks Zarkander and Rock on Ruby won't see out the trip. TM thinks Reve de Sivola is the one to beat. TM and KR like Lieutenant Colonel and Dedigout with the latter being more ground dependant. AL and GOB both think Whisper is the dark horse in the race. Gold Cup: All big no's for Holywell, KR will "eat his bollox if he wins a Gold Cup". KR, AL and TM think Many Clouds holds an excellent chance but PR thinks he's focussed more on the Grand National. The only concern is quick ground for KR. TM thinks Silvianaco Conti is the best horse in the race but PR, ALand KR both think he won't stay up the hill and is best on flatter tracks. Foxrock if supplemented has a great chance feel TM and KR. All 4 think Carlingford Lough has no chance while KR and AL both like Road to Riches, TM says he has no chance. Other Races Day 1: Glens Melody ew or w/o Annie Power (KR and AL) The Young Master in the 4 Miler (KR) Gallant Oscar a great ew chance ™ Annie Power will go off evens for the Mares Race (PR) Other Races Day 2: Cassels Rock borderline but would have a great chance in the Coral Cup, Quick Jack in the County Hurdle is the surprise package & Thunder Zone in the Fred Winter ™ Pylonthepressure in the Bumper (PR) Vigil in good form and will have Smullen on board, Bordini has been impressive (KR) Other Races Day 3: Mydor an ew shout in the Pertemps, Rivage D'or an ew chance in the Cross Country & Sraid Padraig has a good chance he jumps and travels well ™ Ned Buntline in the Grand Annual (AL & TM) Other Races Day 4: Salsify in the Foxhunters (KR) Some races in the last 4 parts may not be in the right day so apologies if that is the case. Lot of information there so hopefully some of it is helpful in picking some winners.

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 21st]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 21st 2.55 NEWCASTLE -THE BETFRED EIDER Venetia Williams has a fine record with her chasers in testing ground and I am going to take a chance on SUMMERY JUSTICE. He has proved to be a fair handicapper over the years, winning four chases and looked good last year when winning at Newbury on heavy ground. Last time out he finished a good third at Kelso on heavy ground and off a lower mark, he could run a good race at a big price. The other to look out for at a big price is Milborough. He may only have run eight times over fences, but he is a proven stayer and capable of more improvement than others. He was not disgraced when finishing eighth in the four miler at Cheltenham last season and stayed on strongly to win at Carlisle on soft ground earlier this season. He has a useful claimer on board, who has ridden 3 winners from his last 15 rides and stays very well, so I can see him making the frame. 3.45 KEMPTON – THE BETBRIGHT CHASE EASTER DAY remains a well handicapped horse and on his favoured soft ground must have a big chance. He was a decent hurdler and took to fences well last season, with his victories including a defeat of O’Faolain’s Boy at Ascot, conceding four pounds. That was a classy run, but he met with a setback afterwards and missed the remainder of the season. He returned in December 2014 after one year off the track and ran a fine race to finish a close third at Newbury and then last time out was travelling like a good thing when coming down at Cheltenham. He had not made a mistake, just knuckled on landing and was very unlucky. He is three from three going right-handed and off the same handicap mark, he should run a big race. The biggest danger could prove to be his stable-mate Rocky Creek who remains fairly handicapped off 154. He was a top class novice chaser and connections believed he was on the fringe of Gold Cup class. His rating for this is therefore interesting. He was never going in the Hennessy, so you have to ignore that run to have faith in backing him here, but he has the ability to win a big handicap and in a race that top weights have often done well in the past, he is worth an each-way punt.

[Preview reports 2015]

Re: Preview reports 2015 THIS AINT MY WORK BUT I HAVE PERMISSION TO USE IT Goat preview night with Bryan Cooper, Katie Walsh, Jim Culloty, Kevin O'Ryan, sponsored by Paddy Power. courtesy of ross Moynihan ,@rossmoyno7 Supreme - Bryan thinks TUM would be suited by Supreme but can't be sure if runs in Supreme or Neptune. Got racing too early LTO. Alpha Des Obeaux is very well thought of said Bryan, thought he had serious chance the last day and Ruby came doing half speed on Douvan. Katie says Douvan is quite lazy and relaxed and that's what you need. Absolute moral, can't see him beat. Clear he's a machine. Kevin says Henry DB said to him thought Sizing John was very good when beaten by Douvan. Post race said either were average or he's machine Jim says L'ami worth a mention. Will improve for better ground and respected. Worry if Douvan misses any beat along the way. Willie not one to hype a horse and he finished his media day by saying Douvan is a machine Neptune - Bryan says race tailor made for Outlander. Bumper form rock solid & good the last day. But impressed with Nichols Canyon too. Bryan reports Robbie said if Windsor Park turned up in the Albert Bartlett that he'd win Bryan more excited to ride Tell Us More than Outlander. David Casey best judge in Willie's and couldn't believe was beaten LTO. Katie says can't forget Shaneshill wherever he goes. She would have Shaneshill over Nichols Canyon any day of the week. Katie saying Ruby has a lot of huge decisions to make with a bunch of magnificent novices, and that he will definitely be wrong with a few. Ruby isn't lying when says he doesn't know who he'll ride in everything says Katie. Literally all depends on last piece of work. Katie has ridden every novice of Willie's and the best horse of them all is Douvan. Shaneshill is as tough as honours maths and great bet for the Neptune - Katie Jim reckons at a the run race at Cheltenham Windsor Park can reverse form with Nichols Canyon, and the bet for him. Arkle - Katie says UDS as free as the wind. Rider is never in control. He is a nervous horse and gets hot. Hard on himself. However Katie says UDS has been to France twice and won twice so she isn't so worried about the Arkle.He's just too fast. Katie says if Vautour was to run she thinks he'd be second to Un de Sceaux. If UDS stands up he's a certainty and he will stand up. Bryan vey surprised if Clarcam ran this weekend. Has forgiven him for breaking his leg now, electric over fences. Bryan says if UDS falls which is a high possibility then Clarcam the one to be on. Thought would have won Fred Winter last year if not fall. Bryan was comfortable behind UDS most the race LTO but when Ruby changes his hands he was just gone. 'He emptied me in two strides' EW bet for Jim is Josses Hill. Value bet but UDS has to fall for him to win. Kevin keeps it simple - Josses won't get around, UDS wins RSA - Michael told Bryan he won't leave him sitting in the weighing room while Patrick has a nice ride in the four miler. [gold digger will be happy hearing that] Katie - Don Poli is as much a certainty as Douvan. Thinks he will run in the RSA, won't get beat. Who wins when it comes to owner and trainer deciding targets? Asked to Bryan. Michael has made it clear to him he says, the owner. Katie says the faster Coneygree goes, the further Don Poli beats him. Jim talking to Nichols yesterday. Nichols says Ptit Zig has had his ulcer problems sorted out & Paul maintains that can make for a new horse Bryan - Disappointed Valseur beaten the last day. Let Paul slip up the outside. Can reverse form next time out but Vautour hard beat. Katie says Vautour was beat by the time he jumped out at Christmas. Never looked happy. Her fancy is the Tullow Tank at big prices. Triumph - Was worried if Petite would stay the last day but she did well. Tough fully and a good ride but Nicky a serious hand in it. Bryan - None of the Triumph crop this year in the league of Our Conor. Could run it a few times and get a few different results. Katie reckons Kalkir lacking a gear. Fast pace will suit Peace & Co and one to beat. PP the most suited of Willie's for this year. RyanAir - The Don ticks all the boxes. It was his own fault that he fell at the festival last year. Ground makes no difference. There's no such thing as a good thing at Cheltenham but Don Cossack one of the best rides I have - Bryan Katie - Cue Card is going absolutely nowhere. Don Cossack all the way. Russell used to tell Jim The Don was only a big frame of a horse. Has filled into that frame now. Katie - 5/4 Faugheen is ridiculous. What has he beat? Absolutely nothing. Ridiculous price. Wide open race. Katie doesn't like the New One. Not convinced on this years form, can't have him. Jezki great price at 6/1. Hurricane without doubt appreciates it softer says Katie. Struggles at a certain point in races now and can't do that in Champion. But if the heavens opened, her 100 euro would still be on Hurricane Fly. Unbelievable horse. AP told Bryan at Christmas that he could have gone another furlong and a half at Christmas and he wouldn't have gone by Hurricane Fly. Jim thinks Cheltenham will suit The New One far better than anything else. Kings Theatre need better ground. Paddy Power have not laid a cent on Ruby to ride Hurricane Fly. Not a shilling. Will ride Faugheen. QMCC - Lay of the meeting for KOR is Sprinter Sacre. Jim can't have him either. No room for emotion here. Hidden Cyclone great EW bet for Kevin, didn't get home in the RyanAir last year, trotted over the last. Bryan concurs. 'For me Sprinter Sacre looked like a fucking greyhound the last day' - Jim C Rock on Ruby the pick for both Jim & Katie in the WH, but all very tentative. Wide open race etc etc. Before Dessie past away Bryan says thy always thought Lieutenant Colonel was one of the best they had had in a long time. Wouldn't get off. Dedigout will not run at Cheltenham unless there is an absolute downpour. Lord Windermere has had no health issues this year which is contrasting to last year says Jim. In front too soon the last day. Jim was confident he'd finish in the first four last year and that's how he feels again, first four. Obviously would love to win. Jim says according to vets if you scope 100 horses, 90 of them will have ulcers. Ulcers excuse suspect re Silviniaco. Wants flat track. Carlingford Lough is a massive improver says Jim. 'We probably all know why but we won't say why. They placed him well we'll say' Bryan - I rode in the Lexus & the Hennessy and the Hennessy rode a far better race, we went flat to the boards the whole way. Road to Riches picked up again in the last 20 yards after going that quick the whole way. Hope for first three definitely - Bryan Decision re Foxrock supplementation will not be made until the five day stage, changing every day says Katie. Bumper - Up for Review I think is the horse they all have to beat. Keeps going forever and you've got to stay- katie Bryan says Eddie O'Leary has told him that Gigginstown will run one or maybe two in the bumper. Each one as impressive as the next. Mares - Katie says Annie is great nick and won't come off the bridle. Edeymi & Bishops Road the handicap guddens for Bryan Charity bets - Bryan goes for Don Cossack. Katie goes for Annie Power. Jim picks Lord Windermere EW.

[Preview reports 2015]

A friend as sent me a copy of preview report which took place at ascot on 14/2.2015 onlya short one but its a report: Cheltenham Preview Report 2015 : Ascot 14/2/2015 Ascot Racecourse hosted the first Cheltenham Festival Preview of 2015 in the Horsewalk Inn after racing on 14 February. The Panel consisted of: Oli Bell - Chair Paul Nicholls ( PN) Aidan Coleman ( AC) Barry Orr ( BO) Champion Hurdle BO: Reckons Ruby Walsh will definitely ride Faugheen, and will leave The Fly. Kitten Rock winner in Ireland today has had support for the Champion Hurdle AC/PN: Nicholls & Coleman big Faugheen fans too, Nicholls can't touch The New One. BO : When panel asked for any big priced choices Barry goes back to Kitten Rock again. Champion Chase AC: Sprinter Sacre ran well at Ascot. Some are being unfair to him. PN : Dodging Bullets has gone under the radar. He is in the form of his life having won the Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chase.He has not been great in the spring before, but we have adapted his training slightly. To me he deserves to be favourite. It should not be done on sentiment but on form and that is my view. PN : I think Mr Mole will run a big race. He dotted up last week after being left 15 lengths at the start. He has won four races on the trot and won ones that Master Minded did. I always thought he was good but it has taken a bit of convincing. AP (McCoy) didn't really like him at first but he has got confidence with him now and is on a roll. I think he has the more natural ability, whereas Dodging Bullets is the more hardened and tougher horse. BO: Champagne Fever won today & could drop back to the Champion Chase, likes Cheltenham. Simply Ned a longer-priced option. World Hurdle PN: Can't give More Of That any chance for World Hurdle and doesn't fear Annie Power either - both had interrupted campaigns . He thinks Zarkandar should be favourite. He has solid form and and he probably should have won at Ascot before Christmas when he pulled up in front. The more competitive race will suit him and he had a racecourse gallop at Wincanton on Wednesday and it was the best he had seen him for a long time. Saphir Du Rheu is improving, but in my mind Zarkandar is a bit more battle-hardened and experienced and I feel that Rock On Ruby will give him a good lead into the race so he doesn't have to get there too soon. AC: Saphir Du Rheu for him, won well last time, showed a lot of courage & beat a high class field BO: Lieutenant Colonel is best staying hurdler in Ireland, but look also at Monksland & Jetson. Gold Cup PN: have no worries that Silviniaco Conti acts around Cheltenham, as he was travelling when he fell in the race two years ago."He had a few little mishaps training, but he is much more assured now. His last two wins have been two of the best performances of his career and he had a nice racecourse gallop with Sam Winner on Wednesday. On form he is the one to beat. Sam Winner is the main danger ! He is in good form and loves it around Cheltenham and he needs to be fresh, which he will be. He is the sort of horse that could run into a place at a big price. BO: Silviniaco Conti is a worthy fav, but Road To Riches the Irish threat AC: Aidan wouldn't run the novice Coneygree in the Gold Cup, it is a big jump up. 12-1 for Gold Cup, but would be nearly favourite for RSA All tip Silviniaco Conti to win, Road To Riches & Hollywell get shouts as alternative options Other Races/ Horses BO:Katie T - only NH horse trained by Kevin Prendergast, watch out! PN : Current Event, Foxhunters and Southern Theatre in RSA - has been the target since September, the RSA will really suit him

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 14th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 14th 1.30 Ascot – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle Our opening contest looks likely to be between two exciting novices, the first of which is Paul Nicholls’ Arpege D’Alene. The five-year-old was an impressive winner over course and distance on his British debut in a race which has already produced a couple of subsequent winners. He was upped in Grade on his next start in the Challow Hurdle but failed to fire and finished only fifth. The return to this company looks more sensible and if he looks well placed to give a good account. The preference however is for his main rival TEA FOR TWO who was last seen running away with the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. He won by sixteen lengths from more experienced rivals and having never been outside the first three in eight starts it was no fluke. This race will likely guide connections towards his Festival target as he has entries in both the Neptune and Albert Bartlett. He continues to improve and it would take quite a performance to beat him on his best form. 2.05 Ascot – racinguk.com Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Paul Nicholls’ VIRAK sets the standard here having won his first three starts over fences including the Grade 2 December Novices’ Chase at Doncaster. He was last seen when a distant third in the Feltham behind Coneygree in which he jumped well but seemed to get tired in the closing stages. That run came just two weeks after his Doncaster win and having had a short break, he looks likely to come back in better form. He sets a good standard and looks a big player for a yard that have won this with Gungadu and Rocky Creek in recent years. The one likely to give him most to think about is David Pipe’s Ainsi Fideles. The five-year-old enjoyed a summer jumping campaign in which he rattled off five victories over fences. He chased home Splash Of Ginge at Cheltenham in October and has been absent since, although the soft ground that we have had would not have been to his liking. Race fitness would not be too much of a concern coming from the Pipe yard and if the rain holds off, he could run a big race on his return. 2.20 Haydock – Betfred “Still Treble Odds On Lucky 15´s” Hurdle (Grade 2) SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT returns to the racecourse tomorrow in search of back-to-back victories in this race. He was a revelation for the Sandy Thomson yard last season winning his first three starts over hurdles before finishing third in Grade 1 company at Aintree. His victory twelve months ago saw him beat the likes of Celestial Halo and he warrants plenty of respect on his return to action. It is possible that he may not be fully wound up on his return but his trainer is hoping he can stake his World Hurdle claims and despite conceding weight all round, he looks the one to beat. Last year’ s race saw Mickie finish second under a low weight and it is possible that Land Of Vic could repeat the trick this time around. The seven-year-old showed how well she stayed when chasing home the high-class Bitofapuzzle and Carole’s Spirit last time at Ascot. She receives a sizeable weight allowance here and given how well her stamina lasted on her latest outing, if her rivals struggle to finish their races off she may be the one to benefit. 2.40 Ascot – Weatherbys Hamilton Chase Limited Handicap (Listed Race) It is interesting to see Evan Williams pitch Cappa Bleu into Listed company having seen the thirteen-year-old get beaten in a Hunter Chase at Kelso in January. That run came on the back of an absence of more than a year so he is entitled to have come on for that physically. On the best of his form, he is a high-class staying chaser and he sits 10lb lower in the handicap than when second in this race two years ago. It is possible that he is being aimed at another tilt at the Grand National although he would probably have to run well here to secure his place in the line-up. The main pick sits at the other end of the age spectrum and I am happy to side with the progressive seven-year-old CLONDAW KNIGHT. He has always been highly thought of by the Lucinda Russell team and turned in a career best on his first start over three miles in January. He has always jumped well but he travelled really well up in trip and drew clear to win by fourteen lengths from some useful rivals. The handicapper has tried his best to stop him raising him 13lb but there is surely more to come from this lightly-raced individual and he can give another good account here. 2.55 Haydock – Betfred Grand National Trial (Grade 3) As only Silver By Nature and Rigadin De Beauchene won this race having finished outside the first three on his most recent start, it seems best to side with runners arriving here in form. This spells trouble for most of this year’s field who apart from the quintet of Benvolio, Samstown, Benbens, Lie Forrit and Harry The Viking all arrive here having finished outside the placings last time. It therefore seems imperative to side with a horse heading the right way rather than one looking to bounce back to form. This level at which previous performances have come is also vitally important with seven of the last ten winners having recorded a victory in Class 2 company or higher prior to contesting this Grade 3 event. Gas Line Boy, Trustan Times, Benbens, Ballyoliver, Loch Ba and Harry The Viking all fail to make the cut in this year’s field and will be looking to emulate Well Refreshed, Giles Cross and Silver By Nature who all bucked this trend when winning their respective renewals. In terms of official ratings, the benchmark for this contest looks to be set at 135 with six of the ten most recent winners having achieved this mark or higher before coming here. This is perhaps surprising given the extra weight these horses had to carry in conditions which are often on the testing side. This narrows the field to ten only the bottom three as they appear in the racecard missing out. Having briefly alluded to the stamina-sapping conditions that participants often encounter, it is essential that potential winners of the race have the necessary stamina. This is supported by the fact that nine of the last ten winners had all recorded previous victories over three miles or further. However, there are no questions on that score in this year’s renewal as all of the runners fit the bill. It could be said that the attribute which is taken for granted most often in National Hunt racing is the ability of a horse to jump the obstacles in front of it, which is especially important over longer distances where horses can get very tired and lose concentration. This can be quantified by noting that of the last ten winners; seven of them had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers. The only horse to come unstuck here is Rigadin De Beauchene who had the same blot against his name prior to last year’s victory, so perhaps he can be forgiven for his past misdemeanours. When considering age, in recent years there has been a shift towards younger runners with six of the last ten winners being aged eight or nine. This includes four of the last five horses to be successful and they have five runners this time around. The quintet is made up of the two eight-year-olds Benvolio and Samstown as well the three nine-year-old runners Gas Line Boy, Trustan Times and Loch Ba. Another factor worthy of mention is that nine of the last ten winners had run within the last sixty days prior to winning here. However, much like the stamina trend all of our field come out on the right side of it, with Broadway Buffalo’s 50 day absence the biggest in the field. The final factor to be considered is the one looking at the betting and it does not make good reading for favourite backers as only two of the last ten has obliged. Whilst the market is still open to change between now and Saturday afternoon, Paul Nicholls Benvolio currently heads the market around 11/2 and therefore there would have to be question marks about his chances. Shortlist SAMSTOWN – 8/8 Benvolio – 7/8 Lie Forrit – 7/8 Conclusion Alistair Whillans’ SAMSTOWN tops the shortlist having landed the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last month. He bounced back well from his run at Cheltenham in December and has now won three of his last four starts over the bigger obstacles. In terms of his overall profile, he will need to turn in a career best here but there are no chinks in his trends armour having matched all eight of our trends and he looks well placed to go close again here. Just missing out on the top spot is current ante-post favourite Benvolio who was last seen finishing second in the Welsh National to Emperor’s Choice. The eight-year-old was headed right on the line at Chepstow and his endless stamina reserves should be used to good effect here. He concedes weight all around here but with the Grand National at Aintree the long-term plan, he needs to be thereabouts to keep those hopes alive. The final member of the shortlist is Lie Forrit who looks as good as ever at the age of eleven having won two of his three starts this season. He landed a valuable Veterans’ Chase last time at Kelso in which he made all, staying on strongly close home to land the spoils. The extra distance shouldn’t be a problem and he still looks fairly treated on a mark of 139 based on his hurdles. The stable won two renewals of this race with Silver By Nature and they look to have another strong candidate on their hands here. 3.15 Ascot – Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Hurdle This looks a tricky little contest with several horses in with a chance of victory. The first to interest is Minella Present who bolted up on his first two hurdling starts before running in Grade 2 company in November. In a steadily run race he pulled very hard and he wasn’t able to finish his race off as a result. He is much better than his showing that day and is respected in handicap company for the first time. The slight preference however is for David Pipe’s UNIQUE DE COTTE who won the Conditional Jockeys race on the final day of Cheltenham’s Paddy Power meeting. That race has worked out really well with no less than eight of the field having won since. The seven-year-old’s only subsequent start came over three miles at Newbury in which he didn’t seem to get home and this 2m4f trip should be more up his street. He also wears a tongue strap for the first time which should help him and sitting towards the bottom of the weights, he looks the one they all have to beat. 3.25 Haydock – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle This looks a very competitive race with several horses in here with chances and the first I want to mention is John Ferguson’s Aqalim who has been successful on two of his three starts over hurdles. The furthest he has run over to date in 2m6f at Wincanton where he was doing plenty of good work but lost ground jumping left throughout the race. It looks as though AP McCoy has been released by his retainer JP McManus to allow him to ride this horse and he looks a likely candidate for the frame. Also of interest is Sunnyhillboy who was last seen winning a handicap hurdle in December 2013 at Cheltenham. It looks as though the stable are looking to make further good use of Patrick Cowley’s 10lb claim and I imagine this is a prep run for the Grand National. Nevertheless he looks competitively handicapped and can still take advantage at the age of twelve. However, the marginal preference is for Tim Easterby’s RUN RUCTIONS RUN who has been very consistent all season apart from when trying to make the running two starts back. She ran well to finish third in a Pertemps Qualifier at Musselburgh a couple of weeks ago but she was outpaced on the tight turn for home and the longer straight at Haydock should suit her better. She races here off the same mark and with Richard Johnson doing the steering I fancy her to go close once again here. 3.35 Wincanton – Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) This race has been a popular Champion Hurdle prep over the years and this year’s field boasts a couple of runners who will be hoping to run on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival. Irving confirmed the promise of his novice form when landing the Fighting Fifth back in November. He was disappointing next time at Kempton but was lame afterwards, so perhaps he didn’t give his true running. Paul Nicholls still has plenty of faith in him and having won this with Zarkandar in 2013, he will be hoping to repeat the fate this time around. He could be up against it as Nicky Henderson’s SIGN OF A VICTORY also looks set to take part. The six-year-old was ultra-impressive when winning at Ascot in November as he barely came off the bridle under Barry Geraghty. He was a little disappointing in the Christmas Hurdle where the ground was probably softer than advertised and wouldn’t have been to his liking. He was withdrawn last weekend from the Betfair Hurdle because of lameness but there have been positive reports from Seven Barrows since and I am confident they wouldn’t be risking him unnecessarily. He travels like a horse of the highest order and I fancy him to book his place at Cheltenham with success here. 3.50 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) Ptit Zig currently heads the betting for this race and comes in on the back of victories in his first four starts over fences. This includes a convincing success over Josses Hill here in December as well as a Grade 2 victory at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He steps out of novice company for the first time which is a concern but as we saw last weekend with Coneygree it is not an impossible task that he faces. He has towards the top of the novice chasing pecking order for much of the year and should give another good account here. However at the prices, I feel that BALLYCASEY may represent a better option. Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old has bobbed up and down in trip in the last year but I feel that this intermediate trip is his optimum. He beat Don Cossack by four lengths in Grade 1 company this time last year over 2m 5f and was an impressive winner on his seasonal reappearance over 2m4f in November. The two miles he tackled last time was definitely on the short side for him and it is interesting that connections decided to send him rather than Champagne Fever over for this assignment. This trip should be much more suitable for him and if he can give his best form, it would be no surprise to see him get his head in front. 4.20 Ascot – Racing UK Profits Returned To Racing “National Hunt” Novices´ Hurdle Once again we have a small field but it isn’t short of quality with all five runners having won over hurdles already. Nicky Henderson’s Saint Charles was fourth behind Arpege D’Alene on his hurdling debut before winning nicely at Doncaster last time out. He travelled pretty keenly on both of those starts so it is easy to see why connections have dropped him back to two miles here. A £140,000 purchase in March, he seems to be getting the hang of things and looks to have a good chance of giving his stable a third win in the last six years. However, he could be on the short-side so it might be better to take a chance on Colin Tizzard’s THISTLECRACK who has been described in the past as an absolute machine by his trainer. He was fifth over course and distance in a bumper in December before bolting up at Wincanton on his hurdling debut. He was upped in trip and Grade last time but was always doing too much and ran out of petrol late on. He is worth forgiving that run and with Ruby Walsh an eye-catching jockey booking, he could provide some value in the race. 4.50 Ascot – Neptune Investment Management Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race On form to date, there isn’t much to go on but John Ferguson’s Joe Farrell can boast just about the best form. Having won on debut at Huntingdon, he chased home Ben Pauling’s Barters Hill last time, who subsequently landed a Listed event at Newbury last weekend. The yard have a fine strike-rate in bumpers including this season and it would be no surprise to see him go close here. However, the marginal preference is for Emma Lavelle’s PAWN STAR who was second in an Irish point in November. He was subsequently bought for £50,000 but more interesting is how well this stable’s bumper horses have been running this season. From thirteen runners, Lavelle has saddled four winners as well as three thirds and one fourth-placed finisher. It is therefore interesting that they have decided to pitch this horse into a historically strong race which has been won by the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Red Sherlock in recent years. He is clearly highly-regarded by the yard and I fancy him to make his presence felt here.

[national hunt horses to follow 2014 - 2015]

Re: national hunt horses to follow 2014 - 2015 The highlights of the week for the horses to follow were the victories of CONEYGREE and APACHE STRONGHOLD. Coneygree jumped superbly from the front to win the Denman chase and it was some performance for a novice. He is top class and has taken to fences really well. If I owned him, I would definitely go for the Gold Cup, but I still believe he is best on soft ground, so which ever race he goes for the ground is unlikely to be in his favour. Apache Stronghold ran a cracker in the best novice chase I have seen all season. He got the better of Valseur Lido, who had previously won well and did very well to beat Adriana Des Mottes, considering how much weight he was conceding . KINGS PALACE was our other winner, who was long odds on, but won comfortably. He made a couple of jumping errors however and will need to jump better than that to win the RSA Chase. I believe it could have been the small field and lack of concentration though that caused the errors and he remains a big player for Cheltenham.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread taken from else where: Galway Bay fm newsroom – Galway could be without a race meeting for two years if the proposed city bypass cuts through the Ballybrit facility. The manager of Galway Racecourse says a bypass route through the racecourse would have a ‘drastic effect,’ and could see the 150th summer racing festival cancelled in 2019. Four of the six proposed bypass routes would affect the racecourse. John Moloney says the drainage system that operates at the facility would be disrupted if the new route was to cut into the course. He says Ballybrit could end up with a lake instead of a racecourse. ARUP consultants who are leading the project say any works at the racecourse would be completed within 9 months – but John Moloney says this wouldn’t leave enough time for the Ballybrit team to prepare the course for the summer festival. He says the surface in Galway is of a very high calibre and attracts international horses – and it may never be restored to its current state if it’s disrupted. The Galway races summer festival is worth 60 million euro to Galway city and county, is Ireland’s largest racing festival and the 4th largest in the world. John Moloney says the whole Irish racing industry is appalled that any disruption to Galway Racecourse would even be considered.

[National Hunt Racing > Sunday February 8th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Sunday February 8th 3.50pm Leopardstown – HENNESSY GOLD CUP Just the eight runners, but this looks very competitive and arguably any of them could win. The top few horses in the market look beatable as they are approaching the end of their careers and Lord Windermere has never shown his best form at Leopardstown, so I am going for an outsider and the selection is TEXAS JACK. He has raced four times over fences at the track and has yet to finish outside the first four. In this race last year, he finished just one length behind Tidal Bay and at this meeting in 2013 he finished a close second to Boston Bob, with Lord Windermere back in third. He beat Last Instalment last season and was not disgraced in fourth in the John Durkan last December. I can see this race being run to suit and Paul Carberry can get him into the race late on to make his challenge and at odds of 33/1 (Paddy Power & Stan James), he appeals as good each-way value with just eight runners.

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 7th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 7th 2.25pm Newbury – BETFAIR DENMAN STEEPLE CHASE There may only be six runners, but this could be a cracker. Coneygree has really impressed so far over fences and is sure to go off at a strong pace. He may only be a novice, but he is talented and I expect him to run well. The one I favour, however, is TAQUIN DU SEUIL. He was a top class novice last season and stayed on well to beat Uxizandre in the JLT Novices’ Chase. Connections have stepped him up in trip this season and on his second start he ran well to finish second to Menorah in the Charlie Hall, with both Double Ross and Silviniaco Conti behind him. He ran below form last time, but Jonjo’s horses were in bad form during the autumn and are in much better form now and it was in a very hot race, as it contained Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card and Dynaste. There are no such opponents for this and he is favoured by the weights, so having proved he stays three miles in the Charlie Hall, it is easy to see him running a big race. 2.40pm Warwick – OLBG.com MARES’ HURDLE RACE GLENS MELODY won this race last year and has won both starts at Warwick. After landing this in 2014 she went on to run the mighty Quevega close at Cheltenham, so she is a classy mare. Last time out she ran a fair race to finish second to the progressive Kitten Rock and looks in prime form to run another big race and is selected to win.

[cheltenham 2015 - chat thread]

Not long till the 2015 cheltenham festival gets underway, what horses are you most looking forward to seeing and why ?

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday January 31st]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday January 31st 3.35pm Sandown – Betfred Masters Handicap Chase JUST A PAR - showed some fair form as a novice last season, including an impressive defeat of Third Intention at Newbury. He ran in the three big staying novice chases last season, the Felthan, RSA and Mildmay and was not good enough, but he has now dropped to a fair handicap mark and with the ground in his favour, he should run well. He ran a fair enough race on his handicap debut this season off 143 and then last time out ran well to finish fourth off 140 at Cheltenham. He is off the same mark today, but crucially he does not have to carry top weight which will help him. Overall he is a good jumper, so Sandown should suit and he wears a hood for the first time and given how shrewd his trainer is, there is every chance that it will bring about some improvement and he can run a big race at a fair price.

[AP McCoy Grand Annual Steeple Chase > Friday March 13th @ 5:15pm]

Re: Grand Annual Steeple Chase > Friday March 13th @ 5:15pm 2015 Grand Annual Chase Trends 14 of the last 15 winners carried under 11st 15 of the last 16 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences 14 of the last 15 winners were aged under 10 Only 1 winner since 1990 had not run in the last 45 days 4 of the last 6 winners were novices JP McManus has owned 3 winners and 6 placed horses since 2003 7 of the last 8 British trained winners were previous course winners Just 1 winner officially rated over 145 since 1992

[Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Hurdle > Friday March 13th @ 4:40pm]

Re: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Hurdle > Friday March 13th @ 4:40pm 2015 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle Trends 5 of the 6 winners were second season hurdlers Last time out winners do well in Festival handicap hurdles 4 of the 6 winners were rated 133-139 All winners ran in same calendar year All 5 winners ran no more than 4 times that season 18 of the 24 placed horses have gone off at double figures All 5 winners rated within 7lb of top rated horse 5 & 6 year olds dominated, accounting for all 6 wins and 10 places Jockeys with allowances claimed 18 of the 24 places & 5 from 6 wins

[The Foxhunter Steeple Chase > Friday March 13th @ 4:00pm]

Re: The Foxhunter Steeple Chase > Friday March 13th @ 4:00pm 2015 Foxhunter Chase Trends 22 of the last 24 winners were aged under 11 23 of the last 29 winners won last time out The Irish have won 5 of the last 9 runnings 23 of the last 26 winners started in Point-to-Points or Hunter Chases 20 of the last 21 winners had won a race under rules

[Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends The last 15 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase 14 of the last 16 winners had won earlier in the season 14 of the last 15 winners ran in the King George VI or the Lexus Chase 12 of the last 14 winners were officially rated 166+ 12 of the last 23 renewals were won by second-season chasers 12 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 2 last time out 11 of the last 14 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before 13 of the last 14 winners started in the first 3 in the betting 9 of the last 13 winners did not run during the same calendar year 9 of the last 15 winners started their career in Irish Point-to-Points No winner older than 10 since 1969

[Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle > Friday March 13th @ 2:40pm]

Re: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle > Friday March 13th @ 2:40pm 2015 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Trends All 10 winners ran at least 3 times over hurdles 7 of the 10 winners has run at Cheltenham earlier in the season 8 of the 10 winners won or finished second last time out 8 of the 10 winners started in the first 5 in the betting 7 of the 10 winners had won a pattern race over hurdles 7 of the 10 winners had contested a race over 3 miles The Classic Novices’ Hurdle and Hyde Novices’ Hurdle have been decent guides 4 of the 10 winners were second season hurdlers

[Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle > Friday March 13th @ 2:05pm]

Re: Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle > Friday March 13th @ 2:05pm 2015 County Hurdle Trends 18 of the last 21 winners had run at least 4 times that season 6 of the last 8 renewals were won by the Irish 10 of the last 11 winners were first or second season hurdlers The last 9 winners were officially rated in the 130s 6 of the last 12 winners ran in the Boylesports.com Hurdle or Betfair Hurdle Respect the Imperial Cup winner 4 of the last 11 winners were ridden by Ruby Walsh Just 2 winners since 1960 have carried more than 11st 2lb

[JCB Triumph Hurdle > Friday March 13th @ 1:30pm]

Re: JCB Triumph Hurdle > Friday March 13th @ 1:30pm 2015 Triumph Hurdle Trends 17 of the last 21 winners won last time out The last 23 winners ran in the last 55 days 8 of the 10 winners since the Fred Winter was introduced started in the first 4 in the betting 15 of the last 16 winners that had run on the flat had run over at least 1m4f+ 5 Adonis Hurdle winners have gone on to win this since 1999 The last 8 winners were officially rated 138+ (no rating last year) The Spring Juvenile Hurdle has featured 3 winners, 3 seconds and a fourth in the last 4 years 7 of the last 11 winners made their hurdling debut after November French imports have won 3 of the last 5 runnings Only 1 winner rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996 (no rating last year)

[Kim Muir Challenge Cup > Thursday March 12th @ 4:40pm]

Re: Kim Muir Challenge Cup > Thursday March 12th @ 4:40pm 2015 Kim Muir Cup Trends 15 of the last 21 winners were aged 8 or 9 21 of the last 24 win and placed horses were ridden by non-claiming amateur jockeys 8 of the last 10 runnings were won by non-claiming amateur jockeys Give precedence to horses towards the top half of the handicap The last 14 winners ran over at least 3 miles last time out 6 of the last 10 winners ran in a handicap chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season Just 1 of the last 32 winners were Irish trained The last winner not to run in a handicap last time out was in 1985 Paul Nicholls has 1 placed horse from 16 runners

[Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate > Thursday March 12th @ 4:00pm]

Re: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate > Thursday March 12th @ 4:00pm 2015 The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Chase Trends 25 of the last 27 winners were officially rated no higher than 141 24 of the last 27 winners had run in the last 6 weeks 15 of the last 16 winners had run no more than 16 times over fences French bred horses have won 50% of renewals since 1999 from a small representation 8 of the last 10 runnings won by Venetia Williams, Nicky Henderson and David Pipe trained horses 13 of the last 14 winners started at a double figure price 6 of the last 12 winners and runners-up were novices 10 of the last 15 top-three finishers came from the bottom 7 horses in the handicap 19 of the last 23 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival before Just 1 Irish trained winner since 1951 Just 1 horse carrying over 11st has finished in the first 3 in the last 6 years