[National Hunt Racing > Saturday December 27th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday December 27th 1:45 Kempton – williamhill.com Desert Orchid Chase BALDER SUCCES looks best in small fields and there is every chance that is what he will get here. Just eight horses have been entered and if he runs to form, he should have a major say in the outcome of the race. He raced at Kempton last February and ran a great race to beat God’s Own, so he has good form at the track and has started this season in fair form. After running a decent race at Exeter, he finished fourth in the Tingle Creek and has 1 ½ lengths to make up with Hinterland, but he made a bad mistake and this smaller field should suit him more, so I fancy him to come out on top. 2:35 Chepstow – Coral Welsh National HAWKES POINT went oh so close last year off a mark of 137 and on a mark just two pounds higher, he has every chance to be involved in the finish again. He was a fair hurdler and as a chaser, has always looked a stayer and although he could only finish third last time out, that was his first run since April and he is entitled to come on for the run and this trip will suit much more. Also his run in this race last year, was only his sixth chase start, so with the extra experience he has gained, he should come back an even tougher opponent.

[National Hunt Racing - Boxing Day]

Re: National Hunt Racing - Boxing Day FRIDAY 26TH DECEMBER BOXING DAY 2:00 Kempton – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase SAPHIR DU RHEU was the best of these over hurdles and really impressed last time out, winning easily at Exeter. It was a classy performance that day and he jumped well throughout. It usually takes a good horse to win this and he certainly fits that category and he also has a good record going right-handed, including winning the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last January. There are several good horses in opposition, including Sausalito Sunrise and Coneygree, but the one I favour in the betting without the favourite market is Carraig Mor, who I can see running a big race on this track. I feel that three miles round Kempton will really suit him and he showed last time out, that he has the potential to develop into a top staying novice and he should run a big race. 2:05 Limerick – Shannon Airport Novice Steeplechase There is a cracking renewal of this race to enjoy, with four potentially exciting horses taking each other on in Wounded Warrior, Gilgamboa, Perfect Gentleman and ADRIANA DES MOTTES and it is the last named that is selected to win. I have always thought she would prove a much better chaser than hurdler and she did not let me down on her chase debut, where she stayed on well to beat Rule The World. She is held in high regard and receives a very handy weight for age and sex allowance, which sees her receive 18lbs from her nearest rival. The trip and ground should be fine and her yard remains in top form, so she is the one to beat. 2:15 Wincanton – Armishaws Removals Harry Dufosee Novices’ Chase MOSSPARK showed progressive form in hurdles last season, winning three of his four starts and this former Irish pointer has always been expected to make it over fences. He made his chasing debut at Chepstow against Sausalito Sunrise and ran well for a long way, before fading and this drop in trip should really suit. It is also worth noting that he has lost both starts going left-handed and won all three going right-handed, so Wincanton could really suit him and I expect him to win well. 2:35 Kempton – williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle Faugheen is already favourite for the Champion Hurdle and should win, but he is a short price and the chances of IRVING should not be under-estimated. He is five from seven over hurdles and really impressed when winning at this track last February. He also looked good when winning last time out and has a potent turn of foot. Faugheen stays further and has winning form over three miles and this race usually favours a speed horse, so odds of 5/1 look generous. Nick Schofield rides and he gets on well with him as he has won on five of the six times he has ridden him and also Irving has a record of four from five on right-handed tracks. He has a good chance of winning and is a confident selection in the betting without the favourite market. 2:55 Leopardstown – Racing Post Novice Chase VAUTOUR is long odds on and should win well. He really impressed on his chase debut and it was clear to see the delight on Ruby Walsh’s face after his easy success. He is held in high regard and it will be very interesting to see how he gets on against some decent opponents. Clarcam finished second to him on that occasion and has won well since and should give another good account, but I favour Real Steel for the forecast. He really impressed on his chase debut and jumps for fun. I can see him getting into a good rhythm from the front and making them all go and putting pressure on his opponent’s jumping. Last time out he put in an amazing performance to finish third in the Grade One Drinmore as he jumped violently right at several fences. This return to a left –handed track should really suit and whilst I don’t expect him to be able to cope with Vautour, he can beat the rest and finish second. 3:10 Kempton – William Hill King George VI Chase The ground is set to be much quicker than last year and that could have a significant impact on the result of this race. SILVINIACO CONTI stayed on extremely well last season to beat Cue Card and the rain that arrived on the day of the race really helped him. He is again the one to beat following his fine win at Haydock and he is priced about right at 5/2. I am therefore happy with the 9/1 that I tipped him up at in the Ante-Post preview, but I am tempted to also back one of his opponents that should appreciate the better ground. Dynaste has a really good chance and odds of 8/1 are certainly fair. He was a top class novice chaser and was very impressive in winning the Feltham over course and distance of this race. He was not right when running below form last year, but bounced back with a good win in the RyanAir at Cheltenham and ran another good race at Aintree to finish a close second to Silviniaco Conti. Considering it was his first run of the season, I thought he ran well in the Betfair and it is worth remembering how well he ran in that race the previous year, so I expect him to get much closer to the favourite here.

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday December 20th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday December 20th ASCOT 1.15PM – THE DAVID JOHNSON SHAWBROOK BANK GRADUATION CHASE PUFFIN BILLY has a great record at Ascot, winning all three starts and he looks the one to beat in this. He really impressed me last time out, jumping well and staying on strongly at Ascot and over this extended trip, he could be even better. The yard is in fair form and the ground is in his favour, so a big run is expected. Irish Saint is the obvious danger and is very much respected, but he was beaten too easily for me last time out and he has to concede three pounds, so he will need to put in a classy performance to win. ASCOT 2.25PM – THE JLT LONG WALK HURDLE ZARKANDAR is a top class hurdler that has won 9 of his 20 starts over hurdles. His first attempt at three miles was in the World Hurdle and he stayed on to finish a fair fourth, ahead of both Reve De Sivola and Medinas and followed it up with another decent run, this time at Aintree. He has since run twice over three miles in France, finishing third on his first visit and then easily winning at Auteuil in November on soft ground. That looked an improved run and connections believe that he can develop into a serious World Hurdle horse this season. He is still only seven and faces a relatively easy task here for a Grade One and he is the top rated horse. It is also worth noting that on his five starts going right-handed over hurdles, he has won three and finished second on the other two occasions to top horses. He deserves to be favourite and should be odds on in my eyes and should win.

[National Hunt Racing - Saturday December 13th]

Re: National Hunt Racing - Saturday December 13th 12.15 Cheltenham – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial I though HARGAM was a good thing when running at the Paddy Power meeting last month but he ran into a good one of Philip Hobbs’ that day and lost nothing in defeat. He will have come- on a great deal from that run and he has to be fancied to get his head in front here. The slightly better ground should pay to his strengths and he should be ridden slightly differently as well – he is a confident choice to get us started with a winner despite having the talented Stars Over The Sea in the line-up. 12.50 Cheltenham – Ryman Stationery Novices’ Chase There have been some fine winners of this race in recent years with the likes of Oscar Whisky, My Way De Solzen and The Listener all coming home in front so it might well be worth keeping an eye on the winner throughout their career. It looks a hugely competitive renewal despite just having the four runners. CHAMPAGNE WEST has looked a class act throughout his fledgling career that included a fine fourth in the Albert Bartlett at last year’s Festival and he didn’t put a foot wrong when having the likes of Colour Squadron behind him when winning here at the last meeting – he is highest rated and with Hobbs’ runners still in fine form he can’t be ignored. 13.25 Cheltenham – Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase Bold Henry and Sew On Target re-oppose having finished first and second when they took each other on at here back in November – the latter bounced back to form having run below his best on recent outings. This time last year Sew on Target lined up in the December Gold Cup and a cracker to finish fourth but that was off a mark of 130, today he runs off 135 so I am happy to leave him out of things here. Despite the victory of Bold Henry last time out I’m inclined to leave him out of the equation here, he has only run twice since November 2012, the run last month and the 10lb rise as a result of that success may well have left their mark. Preference goes for KARINGA BAY who also lined up against Bold Henry and Sew on Target last month – he was staying on well when unseating, he runs off the same mark here and with a clear round he has to finish close. Of the remainder Solar Impulse is an intriguing runner as the Paul Nicholls four-year-old clearly has talent having already put together a string of fine performances but my reservation is that this will be his fourth run in the last eight weeks which may make him vulnerable close home. 14.00 Cheltenham – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup With no less than eight of the last ten winners of the December Gold Cup having been aged six or seven, it seems that this is the best age group to follow when searching for the winner. When we apply that to this year’s field we can see that they have only five representatives so the continuation of this fine record relies on the chances of Edgardo Sol, Splash Of Ginge, No Buts, Barrakilla and Workbench. At the other end of the age spectrum, Tatenen will be bidding to become the first ten-year-old to win the race since Garnishee back in 1974, so I am happy to rule him out at this stage. When we consider the competitive nature of this race, it will come as little surprise that it is best to side with horses arriving here in good form. In fact, eight of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish last time out. This just about cuts this year’s field in half with some of those to miss the cut including Easter Meteor, Attaglance and Workbench. Race fitness is also something that has served previous winners well in recent years with only two of the last ten winners having had less than two runs during the season. There are six of this year’s line-up who fail to make the mark here, the most notable being Kim Bailey’s Darna. The eight-year-old defied a lay-off of over two years when winning at Sedgefield last month and it will be interesting to see whether he can continue his progression here. Given the undulating nature of the racecourse at Cheltenham, it seems sensible to think that some horses may not be suited by it. Therefore previous Cheltenham form can prove useful here as shown by the pattern that all but two of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their previous visits to Prestbury Park. The sextet of Darna, Niceonefrankie, Carrigmorna King, No Buts, Barrakilla and Workbench will all be attempting to defy this trend in this line-up. In terms of weight, 11st 2lb appears to be the ceiling here as six of the last ten winners had carried no more than that weight to victory. In this year’s contest the bottom four as they appear on the racecard (Tatenen, Ericht, Barrakilla and Workbench) all come out on the right side of this stat. When it comes to trainers worth following, supporters of the stables of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson won’t go far wrong. These two powerhouses have between them saddled half of the last ten winners including four of the last five horses to be successful. They are both represented by Caid Du Berlais and Ericht respectively this time around. The final trend worth a mention is that surrounding the betting and it is fair to say that this is not a race that served favourite backers well down the years. Only Poquelin in 2009 managed to win having been sent off favourite in the last decade, a stat which does not bode well for the current market leader Caid Du Berlais. Shortlist ERICHT – 5/7 No Buts – 4/7 Barrakilla – 4/7 Conclusion ERICHT tops our shortlist having only missed a couple of the trends we have discussed as he is an eight-year-old. He also finished outside the places last time in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but he was very much in contention before making a mistake at the second last. Crucially he sits at the right end of the weights and represents the Seven Barrows stable of Nicky Henderson. He gets an extra 5lb from Caid Du Berlais than he got in the Paddy Power and he looks to have a big chance of going close. The progressive No Buts also makes the cut having won impressively at Newbury a couple of weeks ago. David Bridgwater’s six-year-old has yet to run at Cheltenham but he jumps and stays well and more importantly could still be ahead of his mark. He is set to carry 11st 3lb on Saturday which means he sits just on the wrong side of the stat but nevertheless he looks well worth his place on the shortlist. The final member of the shortlist is Barrakilla who will be having just his fifth start over the bigger obstacles here. He improved with each of his three runs last year culminating in a Warwick success in which he beat Philip Hobbs’ Persian Snow. His reappearance saw him finish third at Sandown just ahead of No Buts and he is entitled to come on for that run. He will need to improve to go close but he is unexposed and could leave his form to date well behind him. 2.35 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle In the colours of The New One Nigel Twiston-Davies will be hoping Blaklion possess something similar in terms of ability as the five year old looks to return to winning ways having been nicely beaten by Parlour Games last time out. He is considerably the highest rated of any of these and must be respected but slight preference goes for PORT MELON who finished third behind Parlour Games last time out. The Paul Nicholls charge will have come on enormously for his seasonal reappearance – it won’t take too much of a step forward to reverse placings and he certainly looks the value selection at the time of writing. 15.10 Cheltenham – StanJames.com International Hurdle Al eyes will be on the big two as The New One and Vaniteux lock horns but there is plenty of talent away from the market principles as well. The New One is a class act and has superb course form and is a proven Grade 1 performer but Vaniteux should be able to give him something to think about w- he is Nicky Hendersons flag ship hurdler this season running a nice opener in the Greatwood back in November. It is a clear case of potential versus proven ability but rather than focussing on which of these two will come home in front with eight declared it looks a stand out each way betting heat. Zamdy Man gave The New One something to think about at Haydock so can’t be discounted but I was impressed by BERTIMONT when finishing second in the Elite at Wincanton when he had Rock On Ruby amongst others trailing behind. The Dan Skelton trained runner will be having only his third start in Britain after having spells in France and Ireland – at 14/1 at the time of writing he looks over priced as an each-way bet as it is not beyond the realms of possibility the big two get preoccupied with each other and allow an opportunity for something to spring a surprise. 15.45 Cheltenham – Osborne House Relkeel Hurdle Rock on Ruby looks set to be sent off favourite for a fascinating Grade 2 as Harry Fry’s nine year old continues over hurdles after a brief flirtation over fences last term – he is clearly a classy performer, you can’t win a Champion Hurdle and not be but he hasn’t quite been able to recapture that form and I’m not convinced that this trip is his best so will be looking elsewhere. It wouldn’t surprise if LAC FONTANA turns into one of the stars of the hurdling division given a bit of time – his performance in the County Hurdle was very taking but unlike Rock On Ruby I think the further he goes the better he will get and today’s trip at a venue he loves makes him a stand out selection – despite having to carry a penalty. Volnay De Thaix was sent off a short price in the fixed brush at Haydock – a race that has produced some high class performers, he wasn’t disgraced in fourth and he might give Lac Fontana the most to think about.

[december gold cup saturday]

Re: december gold cup saturday

What A Warrior had a very hard race in the Hennessy and i'm surprised he's out again this side of Feb!! Anyway if the ground stays good then Attaglance would be interesting after a nice break. 10/1 bet365

what a warrior is a n/runner as of today

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday December 6th (Tingle Creek)]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday December 6th (Tingle Creek) 1.30 AINTREE – THE BETFRED BECHER HANDICAP CHASE This looks an open renewal and several will fancy their chances. Highland Lodge jumps for fun from the front and should run a big race. He has class form to his name, including finishing fourth in the 2013 Hennessy off a mark of 143, yet runs here of 132. The yard is also in good form and the ground is fine, so he should run well at a decent price and is of each-way interest. OUR FATHER has some decent form to his name and runs very well when fresh. He unseated in the Grand National off a mark of 145, but gets in off 136 for this and that looks lenient. He looked superb first time out as a novice chaser and ran well enough in the Hennessy off 147, so he could be thrown in and assuming he has learned from his mistake the last time he tackled the big fences, he can win. 3.00 SANDOWN – THE 888sport TINGLE CREEK CHASE Balder Succes was a top class novice chaser and looks the one to beat. His win at Aintree was top class and he pleased connections by finishing second to God’s Own on his seasonal debut at Exeter. He is 7lbs better off for five lengths, so there is every chance he can turn the tables, but there should not be much between the pair. At bigger odds, the one that jumps out at me is DODGING BULLETS. He was also a top novice chaser and has a great record in the first half of the season. He is two from two going right-handed over fences and ran really well behind the classy Uxizandre at Cheltenham. He travelled and jumped well that day and although he goes well fresh, he may improve for that run and is right up there on ratings. I can see this race being run to suit him and his good jumping and high cruising speed, will see him go close.

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday November 29th (Hennessy Gold Cup)]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday November 29th (Hennessy Gold Cup) NEWCASTLE – 2.05PM THE StanJames.com FIGHTING FIFTH HURDLE IRIVING looked all set to win last time out, only to fall at the last and should gain compensation here. He was a classy novice last season and the ground should be ideal for him. The track should also suit him and with Paul Nicholls firing in the big race winners, it is easy to see him winning this, on his way to bigger things. NEWBURY – 3PM THE HENNESSY GOLD CUP This looks a cracking renewal and Djakadam is a horse I like a lot and think could progress into a top chaser. It is more about potential than what he has actually achieved on track so far, but he is clearly exciting connections and has been heavily backed in this. He is well handicapped, but lacks experience and it will be fascinating to see how well he performs. Many Clouds won well last time out and fits the profile of a typical Hennessy winner. He will like the ground, stays and has a touch of class and although he went up seven pounds for his win at Carlisle, he has a good chance and should be amongst the first few home. Preference, however is for SMAD PLACE, who loves Newbury (won both starts at the track) and has some very good form to his name, including finishing a close second in the RSA Chase and beating Sam Winner at Newbury in a novice chase, who franked the form by winning well at Cheltenham earlier this month. The main danger to our runners is Rocky Creek as he has the potential to be a top class chaser and things just did not go his way last season. It is worth remembering that Paul Nicholls raved about him after his novice chase campaign, so much so that he was given the box vacated by Kauto Star. He ran well on his seasonal debut, when in need of the run and should be much fitter this time. He also has the ground in his favour this time, whereas last year, it was a little bit quick for him. The stable is also in form, so he has lots going for him and I am expecting a big run from him.

[national hunt horses to follow 2014 - 2015]

Re: national hunt horses to follow 2014 - 2015 The horses to follow continue to run very well and in the last week we have had 11 runners and 8 of them won. The highlight was SILVINIACO CONTI staying on strongly to win the Betfair Chase. Ground conditions and how the race was run, really suited him and he proved yet again, how good he is. The King George is next for him and on soft ground, he is the one to beat. On faster ground however, he could be vulnerable to Menorah, who ran a blinder to finish second on ground that was not ideal. DON POLI impressed on his chase debut to win easily and he is being aimed at the 4-miler at Cheltenham. Other winners include, MILSEAN and VAUTOUR who jumped superbly to land the odds. THE NEW ONE and FAUGHEEN both enhanced their Champion Hurdle prospects, by winning easily at short odds. The New One goes to Cheltenham next for the International, but it is likely that we will have to wait until next March to see them clash. BLUE FASHION ran well to finish second to Faugheen and is being aimed at the World Hurdle. He is a classy horse and could prove to be a decent staying hurdler and has definite each-way claims in a race that lacks strength in depth. Yesterday CLONDAW COURT impressed over hurdles and looks to have a bright future and CARRAIG MOR easily defeated the odds on favourite at Newbury, jumping superbly from the front and he could take high rank amongst this year’s staying novice chasers. In Ireland UN DE SCEAUX made his chase debut and he was jumping very well until falling four out, when miles clear. It will be interesting to see how he runs on his next start, as I am just hoping that fall has not affected his confidence.

[national hunt horses to follow 2014 - 2015]

Re: national hunt horses to follow 2014 - 2015 update: The novice chasers have started strongly with APACHE STRONGHOLD, SHANAHAN’S TURN, THE TULLOW TANK, REAL STEEL and PTIT ZIG all winning impressively and I expect all of them to go on to better things. The Tullow Tank was up there with the best of them over hurdles and can be expected to compete at the highest level over fences, but Shanahan’s Turn and Real Steel are the two that should show much better form over fences than they achieved over hurdles. CARRAIG MOR is the one novice that did not win on its seasonal debut, but he ran well to finish second behind a decent horse and his trainer, Alan King mentioned prior to the race that ideally he would have tackled two and a half miles on his chase debut, so he could be a much stronger proposition next time out. MANY CLOUDS landed a gamble, backed from 4/1 into 5/2 when defeating Holywell at Carlisle and could have a big say in the Hennessy Gold Cup. He is a good horse and handles testing ground well, so there could be a big prize in him this season. IRVING looked set to win the Elite Hurdle, only to fall at the last. He is reported to be none the worse for the fall and should bounce back. KILLULTAGH VIC made a pleasing hurdling debut earlier today, winning easily at Clonmel. He was a short price and entitled to win easily, but he should go on to better things and make a decent novice. Several of the horses to follow have run over the last week and with plenty of success.there were seven runners and six won. SHANAHAN’S TURN looked very good when winning at Punchestown, jumping well throughout and quickening clear of the opposition. He looks a Grade One horse over fences and should continue to progress. KINGS PALACE took on SAUSALITO SUNRISE at Cheltenham and the pair pulled well clear in a decent novice chase and although the winner won well, the runner-up was conceding five pounds and both horses look lively contenders for the RSA Chase. Our other winners were all odds on, but they all did it well and showed they are going in the right direction ahead of bigger challenges to come. The other winners were: DEPUTY DAN PTIT ZIG SHANESHILL BLACK HERCULES

[National Hunt Racing > Saturday November 22nd (Betfair Chase)]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday November 22nd (Betfair Chase) 2.05PM ASCOT – THE AMLIN 1965 STEEPLE CHASE It looks a cracking renewal of this race and all six horses have their chances, but at the prices, the one for me is SOMERSBY. He is a top class chaser on his day and two and a half miles is his perfect trip in my eyes. He also has a great record going right-handed, so much is in his favour here, especially as ground conditions will not be an issue. It is worth remembering that he finished second in the Champion Chase last March and finished a good second to Master Minded in this race in 2011. He ran below form last time out, but may have needed the run and I am prepared to give him another chance and the weight he receives from Al Ferof will help. 3PM HAYDOCK – THE BETFAIR STEEPLE CHASE SILVINIACO CONTI looked in with a great chance of winning this race last year only for his lack of a recent run to tell, as he faded into third behind Cue Card and Dynaste. He has the benefit of a run this time and also has his favoured soft ground, so a big run is expected. He has proved again and again that he is a class act, with his victories last season at both Aintree and Kempton, showing that he is the best staying chaser around. Last time out at Wetherby he jumped superbly, but just could not go with them close home and it could be that the fast ground, inadequate trip and lack of recent run combined caught him out. He is better than that and recent reports show that he is in good form and it is easy to see him bouncing back.

[2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections Djakadam (Willie Mullins) – HENNESSY GOLD CUP saturday 29/11/2014 - 7/1 with hills Djakadam who could be anything in his second season over fences. He had only three starts over the bigger obstacles last season but made quite an impression winning on his first two starts before heading to Cheltenham for the JLT Chase where he came down when going well four fences from home, He currently heads the market for the Hennessy Gold Cup and given the fine record of second season chasers in the race, it looks a good place to start him off. He is still very lightly-raced and given his potential to improve I think he is worth taking a chance on in the Hennessy gold cup.

[national hunt horses to follow 2014 - 2015]

Re: national hunt horses to follow 2014 - 2015 sounds good mate, will sort it out later

[national hunt horses to follow 2014 - 2015]

APACHE STRONGHOLD (IRE) (N. Meade) – An interesting prospect for novice chases this season is Apache Stronghold. He was a useful bumper horse, easily winning his debut, before finishing a good third in the Grade One Punchestown bumper behind The Liquidator. Last season he ran four times over hurdles and showed good form, winning his first start and then following up in Grade Two company at Navan. He finished the season finishing second to the very talented Vautour at Punchestown, but he was not disgraced and the way he jumps hurdles, I fully expect him to be better over fences. Like many of Noel Meade’s horses he tends to show his best form leading up to Christmas, so he is one to catch early and his best trip is likely to be two and a half miles. The Drinmore Novices Chase at Fairyhouse looks an obvious target for him and it will be interesting to see how high up the chasing ranks he can go. BLACK HERCULES (W. Mullins) – The winner of his sole start in Irish points, Black Hercules made a name for himself in bumpers last season. He started with an easy win at Punchestown and then followed up by staying on well to win on soft ground at Gowran Park. He then tackled the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and attempted to make all, but just did not have the pace to pull it off, but still finished a credible fourth. He ran below form on his final start, but much better can be expected this season, especially over two and a half miles, as I feel a step up in trip will really suit him and I can see him developing into a leading Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle candidate. BLUE FASHION (IRE) (N. J. Henderson) One to look out for from the powerful team at Seven Barrows is Blue Fashion. The winner of two of his first four starts when trained in France, he returned to France for his first start for his new trainer and ran a very promising race in a Grade One contest won by Diakali. He travelled and jumped well for most of the race and really caught my eye as a future chaser. Nicky Henderson stated that he had not done much work with him prior to that run and that he is excited about his prospects. Due to a setback he has only run once since, but it was a top class run, as he gave More Of That six pounds at Haydock and gave him a really good battle, going down by just two lengths on soft ground. He looked the likely winner for much of the race, but was just beaten by a very progressive horse. It is worth noting that he starts this season with a rating of 152, whereas More Of That is now rated 169, so he could be one to look out for in handicap company, but he has the build of a chaser and it is most likely that will be his future this season and can see him doing very well and developing into one of the top novices of the season. CARRAIG MOR (A. King) – A fascinating prospect for novice chases this season is Carraig Mor. He made a huge impression on his rules debut at Uttoxeter, pulling clear to easily win a novice hurdle by 25 lengths on soft ground. He failed to progress though and was beaten at odds of 1/8 on his next start at Ascot. He is an impressive looking horse and last season certainly looked like he had not filled his frame yet, so having had a summer to mature; he should come back a much stronger horse and he looks every inch a chaser. He has experience in points to his name also, jumping well to win his sole start in Ireland as a four year old and I can see him doing well over fences and is certainly one to catch first time out. CLONDAW COURT (IRE) (W. Mullins) the winner of his sole start in Irish points by 15 lengths, Clondaw Court looks a novice chaser to look out for this season. He made a big impression on his sole start in bumpers, scoring by 27 lengths on heavy ground. A setback resulted in him missing Cheltenham, but he returned to the track after a year off, to win at Leopardstown in workmanlike fashion. It was very different on his next run though, as he won easily on soft ground. He is clearly fragile, but I believe he is very talented and is now unbeaten in four runs. Having already won in points, he could do well over fences and with an injury free season, he could be competing in the top novice chases in Ireland this winter and finally make it to Cheltenham. CONEYGREE (M. Bradstock) – Included in my list last year, only to miss the season due to injury, Coneygree is on the list again as he looks a very exciting novice chase prospect, especially on testing ground. He really impressed when making all to win his debut over hurdles and then stepped up in class to again make all, this time to win a Grade Two contest at Cheltenham. I was there that day and it looked as if he was really suited to the testing conditions, so he would always be worth looking out for when the ground is very soft. The other significant thing about him on that day was that he stood out from the other runners, in that he had the look of a chaser and was much bigger than the opposition. He returned to Cheltenham for his next start and stepped up in trip to three miles, but the result was the same as he again made all to win easily on heavy ground. He ran below form on his final start but it was a top class race with two subsequent Cheltenham festival winners beating him in At Fishers Cross and The New One and now that his attention has been turned towards chasing, he could prove top class on testing ground. DJAKADAM (FR) (W. Mullins) He was included last year and made a big impression, winning his first two starts well, before falling when still going well in the JLT Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. He looked a natural when winning on his chase debut and then stepped up to Grade Two company to beat the useful Bright New Dawn at Leopardstown, with Road To Riches much further behind. That run was on soft ground and he looks well suited to testing conditions, but despite quicker ground than ideal, he looked good at the Cheltenham Festival and was a shade unlucky to come down. He benefited from a healthy weight for age allowance last season, but he is young and a big horse, so he could still be improving and I can see him proving competitive at the highest level this season. He certainly looks one to follow in the top races at two and a half miles and he has the potential to get three miles later this season. DON POLI (IRE) (W. Mullins) A very progressive hurdler last season, Don Poli looks an exciting recruit to chasing and could go far. He went into the Cheltenham Festival on the back of two wins, including a success on heavy ground over three miles and stayed on well to win the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys race. He finished the season by going very close in the Grade One three mile novice hurdle at Punchestown, running the talented Beat That very close. He looks a chaser through and through though and I expect him to do even better over fences. Considering he was rated 153 over hurdles, if he does progress as I expect, he should develop into a serious contender for the RSA Chase. EASTER DAY (FR) (P. F. Nicholls) – After winning three of his five starts over hurdles and finishing second to Taquin du Seuil at Grade One level, Easter Day was sent chasing last season and although he could only finish fourth on his debut, he won both subsequent starts. In fact his debut run was fair form as the three horses that finished ahead of him, have all gone on to win big races over fences, including Balder Success, who won at Aintree and Double Ross who won at Cheltenham. His next start was at Newbury and he won well on good to soft ground and then he went to Ascot and stayed on well to give weight and a beating to O’Faolains Boy, which is clearly good form. Unfortunately he missed the rest of the season, but as a result starts this season with a handicap mark of just 144. He also appears really suited to testing ground, so looks primed to be a big player in top handicap chases on proper winter ground. His best form so far has been over two and a half miles, but I believe he will stay three miles, so there could be plenty of opportunities for him over the coming months. IRVING (P. F. Nicholls) A useful performer from the flat, Irving quickly developed into a leading novice hurdler last season at two miles. After impressing many on his debut at Taunton, he landed an Introductory hurdle in fine style at Ascot, before returning to Ascot to win the Grade Two Kennel Gate Hurdle on soft ground in the style of a horse going places. It was his next run that really impressed though, as he was taking on decent company in the Grade Two Dovecot Hurdle at Kempton and despite making an error two out, he won with ease. He was then promoted to favourite for the Supreme Novices Hurdle, but he could never get into the race and it was later reported that he was found to be coughing, so I am prepared to forgive him that run, especially as prior to that he had looked most progressive. He starts this season with a handicap mark of 148, which looks fair and it is easy to see him lining up for some of those valuable two mile handicap hurdles, but given all four wins over hurdles were on right-handed tracks and two were at Ascot, the Ladbroke could be an obvious target. JOSSES HILL (IRE) (N. Henderson) A potential top class two mile novice chaser for this season is Josses Hill. He made his racecourse debut against Faugheen, finishing a well beaten second, but then moved to Nicky Henderson’s yard and won his British bumper debut at Ascot. A few weeks later he was sent hurdling and justified short odds to win at Newbury. He then stepped up to tackle the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle on soft ground and ran really well to finish a close second to his stable mate Royal Boy. His next mission was the Supreme Novices Hurdle and he stayed on well to finish second to the impressive winner, Vautour, which was a top class run and proved that he handles Cheltenham. His final start was at Aintree and he easily beat Sgt Reckless to win the Grade Two novice hurdle. He appears to be progressing all the time and has the size to make a chaser. He is already quoted towards the head of the Arkle market and I can see why. He is an exciting horse and he could do very well over fences and he certainly could be a big player in the 2015 Arkle. JUST A PAR (IRE) (P. F. Nicholls) – Paul Nicholls went very close to winning the Hennessy Gold Cup in 2013 with Rocky Creek and he could have another big player for the race this year in Just A Par. A useful novice hurdler in 2012/13, where his form included finishing second to At Fishers Cross at Aintree, he was always thought of as much more a chaser. He made his debut at Chepstow and jumped really well to finish second to Shotgun Paddy who went on to win the Classic Chase at Warwick. He then took on the decent Third Intention at Newbury and pulled clear to win very easily. On the back of that he started odds on for the Feltham Chase, but never really looked like winning and it could be that the track did not suit. He ran well for a long way in the RSA Chase, but faded close home and then ran poorly at Aintree. It could be that his breathing was an issue at the end of the season, so I would not be surprised to hear that he has it operated on. As a result of a poor end of season, he has a handicap mark of just 143 and if he comes back to form, that looks lenient. I can see him being primed to run a big race in the Hennessy first time out or even the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton, as his owner has such a good strike-rate there. He won his point to point on heavy ground, but better ground suits him more, so if the ground is in his favour, he could land a major handicap like the Hennessy this season. KILLULTAGH VIC (W. Mullins) One horse that really caught my eye last season in bumpers was Killultagh Vic. After finishing a good second on his debut, he stayed on well to win on heavy ground at Naas. He then returned to the same track to put in an explosive performance, pulling 16 lengths clear of the useful Golantilla, having made all the running on heavy ground. He ran a fair race to finish sixth in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, but he looks really suited to testing ground and I can see him doing very well over hurdles in Ireland this winter. I love his front running tactics and there is every chance that he could prove a tough nut to crack in the top Irish novice hurdles, before returning to Cheltenham for one of the staying novice hurdles. KINGS PALACE (IRE) (D. Pipe) Last season Kings Palace stamped himself as a hurdler to follow. He was a fair bumper horse, finishing second to Captain Cutter at Ascot and making all to win easily at Plumpton, but he looked even better last season. After falling on his debut, he made all to win at Fontwell on good ground, but then went to Cheltenham’s October meeting and again made all to win decisively over an extended three miles. He was very impressive that day in beating Creepy and Monbeg Dude, but was even better when returning to Cheltenham in December to win the Grade Two Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, again on good ground over three miles. On the back of those runs he was strongly fancied for the Albert Bartlett at the festival, but it just did not happen for him and he eventually fell. He is a very exciting horse that jumps quick and accurately and if he has not been affected by that fall, I can see him challenging the big boys, either over hurdles or as a novice chaser. He does appear to have a preference for good ground though, so his options could be limited during the winter, but when he gets his conditions, he could be very good. MANY CLOUDS (IRE) (O. Sherwood) – A decent hurdler in 2012/13, Many Clouds showed in his first season over fences, that he is already a better chaser. On his chase debut at Carlisle, he stayed on strongly to beat Knock A Hand and back in third that day was Holywell. He then ran another good race, this time at Haydock, splitting Black Thunder and Shotgun Paddy, who went on to win the Classic Chase at Warwick. He was then an emphatic winner at Wetherby, beating Indian Castle by 16 lengths, who went on to win a competitive handicap at Cheltenham on his next start. Going in to the RSA Trial Chase at Ascot, it was reported that he was not spot on for the race, but he still ran a big race on heavy ground to concede four pounds to O’ Faolains Boy and to be beaten less than three lengths. The form was well and truly franked when the winner went on to land the RSA Chase on his next start, a race in which Many Clouds was brought down in , when still going well. He was then beaten by Holywell, but it was his sixth run in five months, so that run can be excused. All in all Many Clouds looks a promising second season chaser, especially on testing ground and a mark of just 144 looks very generous. I can certainly see him landing a big handicap this season and given cut in the ground, he could be a Hennessy Gold Cup horse. MILSEAN (IRE) (W. Mullins) A fascinating prospects for novice hurdles this season is Milsean. He made his debut in January in a soft ground bumper at Navan and pulled clear of the pack to win by eight lengths. He then stepped up in trip to two and a half miles and ran well to finish second to No More Heros, again on testing ground. On his final start, he was incredibly impressive, making all to score by twenty five lengths on heavy ground at Limerick over just shy of two and a half miles. He clearly handles testing ground well and is effective making the running and assuming he takes to hurdles, I can see him doing well during the winter and landing a sequence of victories. MORNING ASSEMBLY (IRE) (P. Fahy) – Even though an Irish trained horse won the Cheltenham Gold Cup, I am not convinced that the cream of the Irish staying chasers from last season are that good, so I feel there is room for one of the novices to step up and really give them something to think about next season and the one I like most is Morning Assembly. A Grade One winner over hurdles, he has shown a similar level of form over fences, winning twice and never finishing out of the first three in five starts, including three Grade One contests. On only his second start over fences he beat the talented Don Cossack at Punchestown (a course he has won 4 from 6 at) and then was just denied in the Fort Leney at Leopardstown, going down by just over a length by Carlingford Lough. After staying on well to finish third in the RSA Chase he finished third at the Punchestown festival, but may have been over the top by then. I can certainly see him taking on the top three mile chasers this season and he looks an interesting contender for the Lexus and Irish Hennessy. MOSSPARK (IRE) (E. Lavelle) – Mosspark won the Sidney Banks Novices’ Hurdle and he impressed me. He stayed on well to beat a decent field that day and in doing so, landed a hat-trick over hurdles. Prior to that he had won well at Leicester and Exeter on soft ground and he clearly handles testing ground well. He looks one to follow over fences this season and on his sole start in Irish points, he finished a good second to Annacotty who went on to win the Grade One Feltham Chase last season. He was found out at Cheltenham, but the ground may have been too quick and although he could only finish third on his recent chase debut at Chepstow, it was a good race and he ran well for a long way, but just may have been found out by the three miles trip. With that run under his belt, he should be winning over fences soon, especially when dropped to two and a half miles on soft ground. PONT ALEXANDRE (GER) (W. Mullins) An easy winner of his sole start in France, Pont Alexandre then joined Willie Mullins and made a huge impression when on his debut for his new yard, he made all to win the Grade One Navan Novices Hurdle in emphatic style on heavy ground. He then defied a penalty to easily win at Leopardstown, with Sizing Gold 11 lengths back in second. Both runs were over two and a half miles and on the back of those impressive victories he started a hot favourite for the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, but on the day he could only finish third. It was still a good run though as the winner was The New One. Unfortunately he met with a setback and missed last season, but assuming he retains most of his ability, he could still be a big player this season. He is clearly very talented and having had just four runs, I expect there to be plenty of improvement in him and should he now go chasing, he has the potential to go to the top of the novice ranks. PTIT ZIG (FR) (P. F. Nicholls) One of last season’s big improvers was Ptit Zig. He started the last campaign by finishing second to Diakali in France in a valuable Grade One hurdle. His next start was under top weight in the Ladbroke Hurdle and he ran a cracker to finish second on soft ground, especially when you consider he was only a four year old. He then tried to give weight to Melodic Rendezvous on heavy ground at Haydock, which was always going to be a very difficult task, but he ran well to finish second. He finished the season by running at the big two festivals, firstly finishing sixth in the Champion Hurdle and then fourth to The New One at Aintree. Both were fair runs, but he is not of the class of the top hurdlers and I am sure he will be going chasing this season and he could be very good. He will certainly be one of the highest rated hurdlers going over fences and he has a good jumping technique and is trained by the right man to get them jumping fences. He could have a big season ahead of him and it would not surprise me if he was to win the Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown in December on his way to the Arkle. RATHVINDEN (IRE) (W. Mullins) The winner of both starts in bumpers, Rathvinden made a name for himself over hurdles last season. On soft ground at Cork, he made the opposition look ordinary and on the back of that he was made favourite for his British debut at Warwick, where he took on the talented Deputy Dan. The race was starting to hot up and he was still going well when falling three out, but he made up for that when pulling a long way clear with the classy Red Sherlock on his next start, at Cheltenham. The ground was very soft that day, but the way they pulled clear, made me think, both are horses to follow. That race was over two and a half miles and it was the Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle over a furlong further that he tackled at the Cheltenham festival and he ran a good race. The winner, Faugheen, was in a different class that day, but Rathvinden stayed on well for third on good ground. I expect him to go chasing this season and he could be very good. He ran once in Irish points and had made good progress to catch the leader at the last, only to fall when looking likely to win, but having gained confidence over hurdles, he could do well over fences. REAL STEEL (IRE) (M. Morris) If I had to nominate just one horse to look out for over fences this season, it would be Real Steel. Just by looking at him and seeing the technique he used to jump hurdles tells me that he is going to be much better over fences. After easily winning his hurdling debut, he stayed on well to win a Grade Three contest at Naas, beating Vicky de L’Oasis and then finished second in a Grade Two race to the useful Valseur Lido, but he was conceding six pounds, so that was a good run. His best form last season was over two miles on testing ground, but I can see him being even better over two and a half miles. I fully expect him to do very well over fences this season and prove capable of competing against the top Grade One novice chasers in Ireland, especially on testing ground. RULE THE WORLD (IRE) (M. Morris) – A top class novice hurdler in 2012/13, where he won three times and finished second to The New One in the Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle. He suffered an injury at the end of his novice campaign that resulted in a delayed return to action, but he did not let his supporters down, when winning at Naas in October. He tackled the Hatton’s Grace on his next start, but could not cope with Jezki, eventually finishing fourth. He showed better form next time out though, when stepped up to three miles and chasing home Zaidpour at Leopardstown. He then was dropped in trip and made all to win easily on his next start, before finishing in mid-division in the World Hurdle. He is a lovely big horse who jumps hurdles in the style of a chaser and I expect him to do well over fences. I am sure connections will take that route this season and having also won his sole start in Irish points, the signs are good. He could prove best dictating the pace over two and a half miles as I feel it would take a good one to get past him. SAUSALITO SUNRISE (IRE) (P. J. Hobbs) – A horse that I have liked ever since I saw him in the parade ring at Huntingdon ahead of his debut under rules, Sausalito Sunrise retains his place on this list. Last season he improved by a massive 28lbs, winning four times over hurdles, including an impressive win at Haydock on soft ground over three miles. He ended the season on a high with two wins in a row, including an emphatic defeat of the useful Oscar Rock on good ground. Three miles looks his trip and he is improving fast and now that he is set to go chasing, I can see him continuing his rise up the ranks. He won his sole start in points by eight lengths and jumped really well to win his chase debut at Chepstow, so I fully expect him to do well at the game and can see him developing into an interesting RSA Chase candidate. SHANAHAN’S TURN (IRE) (Henry de Bromhead) One horse that I expect big improvement from for tackling fences is Shanahan’s Turn. After finishing second on his rules debut in a bumper at Gowran Park, he was sent straight over hurdles, winning well at the second time of asking. He was then asked to tackle a huge step up in class when he took on Faugheen at Cheltenham, where he finished eighth. He stepped up in trip to three miles for his final start and ran a fair race to finish fifth behind Beat That in the Grade One War Of Attrition Novices’ Hurdle at Punchestown. He is a lovely big horse and his jumping technique is made for chasing. He should progress much further over fences than he did over hurdles and he is a horse that must be followed as I can see him proving to be a superb jumper, although he may just lack the class to beat the very best. It is also worth noting that he won his sole start in Irish points by a distance. SHANESHILL (IRE) (W. Mullins) – One of the leading prospects for novice hurdles this season is Shaneshill. He made his debut in a Naas bumper and made all to win well, before putting in an excellent performance to beat The Herds Garden by 11 lengths at Fairyhouse. On the back of those runs he was made favourite for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and ran well to finish second. In third that day was Joshua Lane, who had also finished just behind him at Naas, so the form of his debut win took a serious boost. His final start of the season was at the Punchestown festival and he gained revenge on his Cheltenham conquerer, Silver Concorde to win well. His best form so far has been on good or good to soft ground, but soft ground should also be ok for him and it is easy to see him being a major player in the top two mile novice hurdle races in Ireland this winter and there is every chance that he will prove effective at two and a half miles also. Given that he has already run well at the Cheltenham Festival, I expect him to run a big race there again in 2015. SMAD PLACE (FR) (A. King) A top class hurdler that has taken well to fences, Smad Place could develop into a leading player for top staying chases this season. As a hurdler he finished placed in two World Hurdles and although he unseated his rider at the last when well clear on his chase debut, he made no mistake next time, jumping well to win easily at Exeter, defeating Ardkilly Witness by seven lengths. After a winter break he came out on top in a cracking novice chase at Newbury, beating both Mendip Express and Sam Winner and then finished the season by running another big race at the Cheltenham Festival. The RSA Chase looked a good race going into it and the fact that he pulled six lengths clear of third placed Morning Assembly, shows that he has really taken to the game and it was only the promising O’Faolains Boy that could get the better of him and then it was only by a neck. He has been given a handicap mark of 155, which is a pound below his hurdles mark and he looks capable of winning a big race like the Hennessy Gold Cup off that mark. I fully expect him to progress again this season and he looks a lively contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. THE TULLOW TANK (IRE) (D. Hughes) – Owner Barry Connell unfortunately lost Our Conor last season, but hopefully he has a new star in The Tullow Tank. The winner of his sole start in bumpers, easily beating Real Steel, he took time to get the hang of things over hurdles, winning at the third time of asking, when staying on strongly to beat Turnandgo. He did not look back after that, winning the Grade One Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle on his next start, with future festival winner Very Wood back in fifth and then he followed up by landing the Grade One Future Champions Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown. He just failed to land a Grade One hat-trick when finding Vautour too good back at Leopardstown, but that was no disgrace, considering how easily he went on to win at Cheltenham. Due to the publicity surrounding Phillip Fenton leading up to Cheltenham, Mr Connell decided not to run The Tullow Tank, but he will be back this season and I expect him to continue his rise up the ranks of National Hunt racing. He could progress further over hurdles, but given that he is from a pointing background, I expect him to go chasing and he should do well at the game. UN ATOUT (FR) (W. Mullins) – A very exciting prospect for novice chases this season is Un Atout. Forced to miss last season due to injury, he will hopefully be back soon and should be followed. A very impressive winner on his debut in a Naas bumper, he followed up by making all on heavy ground to win his debut over hurdles. He was even more impressive on his next start, again winning at Naas, this time beating Rory O’Moore by 19 lengths. On the back of those wins, he started just 6/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and ran a fair race to finish fourth, but the three horses ahead of him were Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours and Jezki, so to be beaten less than three lengths was a top effort. His final run of the season was at Punchestown and he was made to work hard to beat Ubak, but that horse had won a Grade Two Hurdle the time before, so it was fair form. The thing about him though, is that it is clear that he will be much better over fences, as he has the size for the game and the way he jumps hurdles gives me a lot of confidence that fences will be the making of him. On heavy ground, he could prove up to winning at Grade One level over fences and could be about to make up for lost time. VICTOR HEWGO (K. Reveley) One of the best handicapped chasers in the country is Victor Hewgo. A three time winner over hurdles, he has looked even better over fences. He was beaten by just a neck on his chase debut at level weights, but the winner was Western Warhorse (now rated 159), who went on to beat Champagne Fever in the Arkle. He then won easily at Doncaster, before returning to that track to go down in a close finish to Holywell (level weights) who went on to win at both Cheltenham and Aintree and is now rated 163, so a rating of just 139 for Victor Hewgo looks very lenient. On his next start he easily beat the promising Cowards Close, who franked the form by winning well next time out and although he was beaten at Aintree, I am prepared to forgive a good horse a bad run. As a result he remains well handicapped and could land a big handicap this season. The Skybet Chase at Doncaster in January looks an obvious target given that he has run so well there already.

[National Hunt Racing - Saturday October 25th (Old Roan Chase)]

Re: National Hunt Racing - Saturday October 25th (Old Roan Chase) well done, great call

[Race Commentaries]

Re: Race Commentaries racingfm is a great station, its all horse racing including trainers interviews ect http://www.racingfm.com/

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread R.I.P TOBY BALDING sad to hear the news that trainer Toby Balding as passed away, he trained some great horses including morley street,beech road and won the gold cup with cool ground. R.I.P. thoughts with his family and friends

[Royal Ascot 2014 - discussion thread]

six days to go, so I thought I would try and get a bit of activity/discussion going regarding the Royal meeting, Which horse are you most looking forward to see running and why ?

[C4 Derby TV figures slump. Has Racing lost its appeal?]

Re: C4 Derby TV figures slump. Has Racing lost its appeal? taken from sporting life: Channel 4 Racing has announced that Frankie Dettori will join its presenting team for Royal Ascot and the rest of the Flat season. Dettori, three times a champion jockey and one of the most recognisable faces in the game, is retained rider for Sheikh Joaan Al Thani, one of the new driving forces in racehorse ownership. The Italian famously rode all seven winners on the card at Ascot in September, 1996. "I'm thrilled to be joining the Channel 4 Racing presentation team for the Flat season and look forward to starting work next week at Royal Ascot - the racecourse that catapulted my career back in September 1996 when I won all seven races," said Dettori. "I've been talking to Channel 4 about this opportunity for a while as I have always enjoyed its racing coverage and I am delighted to be able to give viewers an insight into the great thrill of our sport." Dettori joined Clare Balding for a short stint at Epsom on Derby day and the channel's lead presenter said: "Frankie is a great communicator and personality and would be an asset to anyone's coverage. He'll bring energy, insight and enjoyment." Ed Havard, Channel 4's head of live events and special programmes, said: "Frankie Dettori is known to millions both inside and outside the sport of racing and his record as a jockey speaks for itself. We're delighted that he's joining Clare and the Channel 4 Racing team, not just for Royal Ascot, but also across the rest of the Flat season. "Royal Ascot is one of the highlights of our year and we are continuing to invest in this incredible event across the channel and across the business to showcase the spectacle of Ascot for our audiences." Channel 4 saw its peak audience figures for the Investec Derby dip last weekend, but Ascot chief executive Charles Barnett saluted its "unprecedented investment" in this year's showpiece. He said: "Channel 4's investment in this year's Royal meeting is unprecedented, with the usual high standards of racing and event production to be enhanced by a bespoke fashion element fronted by the acclaimed Gok Wan. "We really are in a very privileged and sometimes overlooked position in the UK, in that our major meetings and Saturdays are covered so extensively on terrestrial television by Channel 4. To have all the races on terrestrial television at any meeting is almost unheard of - perhaps just Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup Carnival in Australia. "We are the envy of the world in terrestrial television terms, including in Australia where they don't get close to the 90 days Channel 4 cover, and this is in no small part down to our broadcast partners who clear the decks to put racing first - the addition of Future Champions Day to this year's calendar of live events being a perfect example."

[BBOTD > Saturday June 7th]

Re: BBOTD > Saturday June 7th

8.25 Lingfield - Starlit Cantata E/W @ 11/1 Bet365 I've left this really late tonight but I think that this one must have a good chance. She has been very consistent and has run into the top 3 in its last 2 races. The last second place finish came here so she will go well at the course. She is upped in trip for the first time to 10f but the step up in trip looks like it could suit as she looked to stick on well last time out. She could be vulnerable to a couple of these but I feel she should be able to at least run into another place. The trainer had a winner today and the jockey has performed well enough on this horse in the past.

cracking shout well done

[National Hunt Racing > Thursday May 1st]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Thursday May 1st 3:40 Colm Murphy Memorial Handicap Hurdle A new race and, with all these 25-runner handicap hurdles at this meeting, it’s more often than not a case of trying to find the horse laid out for the race rather than one with recent form in the bag. Short List Halling’s Treasure Golden Ticket Fire Fighter Time Please Conclusion Hurler And Farmer, Golden Ticket and Halling’s Treasure wear headgear for the first time and as the first named had run three times in April, I prefer the latter who may have been trained more with this race in mind by Gordon Elliott who has had more than one horse run well at the big meetings when he puts headgear on for the first time, famously with Flaxen Flare of course who then hosed up in the Fred Winter. The fact he is a maiden after five starts over timber wouldn’t concern me and he is now given his handicap debut and stepped up in trip. Combine all those factors together and I sense he will find much improved form. Christy Roche also turns to first-time headgear for Golden Ticket who has won only one of his seven hurdles starts but he returns to timber here after having his last nine starts over fences and is 11lb lower over hurdles so he is interesting, especially being a course winner even if A P McCoy rides Time Please of the McManus runners. As such, Edward O’Grady’s charge also has to be interesting even if he hasn’t got within 22 lengths of a win in his last three starts but you would think that the Champion Jockey wouldn’t be riding him for nothing when Golden Ticket has quite an interesting profile? Fire Fighter had a run on the Flat three weeks that might have been used simply to tee him up for this race by Adrian Maguire. That was his first run since finishing second at Sandown in February 2012 when trained by Alan King and he is off a 7lb lower mark here on just his fourth hurdles start so there could easily be more to come. 4:15 Three.ie Handicap Chase It doesn’t get any easier as 20 runners have been declared for this 2m handicap chase where no winner in the previous ten years had carried over 11st until Twinlight won with 11st 10lb on his back last year. A 12-year-old won two years ago but generally this has been a handicap for young, progressive horses with nine of those last 11 winners aged between six and eight. Short List Toostrong Treat Yourself Mallowney Ned Buntline Conclusion Looking at the age and weights stats, and seven horses are aged between six and eight carrying under 11st and, of those, I most like Toostrong. Gordon Elliott’s novice has only won once in his 13 chase starts but he has only found one too good on his last two runs notably last time out a month ago when he was having his first start since October so lack of hard fitness may have caught him out, especially on heavy ground. With that run banked and now racing on better ground, he can go close. Few trainers are as adept with two-mile chasers than Arthur Moore so I wouldn’t be surprised if he has trained the novice, Treat Yourself, with this race in mind. He was tailed off last time out but that wouldn’t bother me if this is the plan and after he won well at Leopardstown in January, his trainer commented he could be one for Ireland’s top 2m handicap chase, the Dan Moore, next season, so he clearly feels he is up to winning a race of this competitive nature. Mallowney makes most appeal of those set to carry over 11st and wears a hood for the first time. He could have taken his chance in the Arkle as he was going quite well when he fell late on in the Irish Arkle but three subsequent defeats have shown he wouldn’t have been a serious factor. This is his first handicap though and Davy Russell will know him better this time having had his first ride on him when second to the useful Road To Riches last time out where Golanbrook was back in third. He doesn’t find a lot off the bridle so this faster ground will help him get home better. He might be more of a back-to-lay horse but I fancy him to travel well and hit the frame. The Grand Annual runner-up Ned Buntline is another who has found less than expected in a finish more than once but he clearly arrives here in good form and the Grand Annual winner, Savello, ran well in the Grade 1 on the opening day giving that form a boost. He had previously finished second to Mallowney at Naas and I do like novices in handicaps at this stage of the season. 4.50 Avon Ri Corporate & Leisure Resort Chase (La Touche Cup) Not a good running of the La Touche Cup I’m afraid, in fact, a very poor renewal. Some punters won’t touch these races given the added risk of what can go wrong but overall I feel they offer backers a real chance as very few of these kind of races are not dominated by the leading fancies and 17 of the last 19 winners started at no bigger than 7/1. Enda Bolger has trained 11 of the last 15 winners (seven with Risk Of Thunder) and runs Quiscover Fontaine and Quantitativeeasing who were ninth (off 10st 9lb) and thirteenth (off 11st 8lb) respectively behind Balthazar King in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Handicap Chase. They run off the same weight today so the latter should be favoured. Bolger also runs Keep On Track who started favourite for the cross country handicap at Cheltenham in December and finished sixth. Part reason he started favourite was a featherweight of 10st 1lb in a handicap but this is a conditions chase and he has to give weight away to all his rivals. Seven of the last eight winners contested the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country where Duke Of Lucca fared best finishing only eight lengths adrift in fourth and he then followed up in a valuable handicap chase at the Grand National Meeting but if he is successful here then he will become the first British-trained winner of the La Touche Cup. Willie Mullins’ Uncle Junior won this race in 2012 and finished seventh at Cheltenham under a big weight and is 14lb better off with Duke Of Lucca here and the longer trip will suit but whether he will enjoy the fast ground on the cross-country course is another matter. Mullins runs three in total as the dodgy jumper, Bishopsfurze, and the former Aintree Foxhunter’s runner-up, Boxer Georg, join him. Last season’s La Touche Cup has featured three of the last 11 winners but would clear top if we extended the table to the last 20 years given Risk Of Thunder’s seven victories in this race. Lydon House (6th) who is now aged 15 and Uncle Junior (fell 6th) contested the race last year. Short List Quantitativeeasing Uncle Junior Conclusion Given what a poor renewal this is there has to be a superb chance that Duke Of Lucca will provide Britain with its first La Touche Cup winner being much the best horse in the race and in such great heart to boot having then also won at Aintree but, as this race is covered in the book from a trends perspective, for that reason I have to leave him off the short list even if he did fare best of those in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Handicap that has featured seven of the last eight winners. Being Bolger-trained and having also contested that race, then the Galway Plate runner-up, Quantitativeeasing, makes appeal even if he did run down the field at Cheltenham, but so have other winners of this prize. He had a big weight that day whereas this is a conditions event so the weights will favour him much more. The fact that Nina Carberry rides suggests he is the yard’s best hope. His stablemate, Quiscover Fontaine, beat him that day but is not so well favoured by the weights but Punchestown might be more his course judged on his 4½ lengths’ third in the P.P. Hogan over these banks in February, though surprisingly that hasn’t been a good guide. I have reservations whether the ground will suit him but the 2012 winner of this prize, Uncle Junior, also took his chance at Cheltenham and went close to beating Balthazar King in November and would be giving weight away to virtually all his rivals if this were a handicap so if he can lay up and be on the scene turning for home, his class and stamina would give him a chance. 5:30 Ladbrokes World Series Hurdle Given the Brits have a good record winning eight of the last 17 renewals (it was an even more impressive 8 of the last 13 before Quevega won the last four runnings), it is remarkable just what a poor guide the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle have been given they were the only two Grade 1 3m hurdle races run earlier in the campaign before Leopardstown upgraded their staying hurdle at the Christmas Meeting this season. Only Blazing Bailey of the last 14 winners contested the World Hurdle which is a big surprise as that race would seem to be the obvious first port of call yet ten of the last 11 winners contested races at the Cheltenham Festival notably Quevega of course whose four wins in this race followed victories in the OLBG Mares Hurdle (beat Glens Melody a little snug in the end last month). Nine of the last 13 favourites have won which is another stat in Quevega’s favour. At Fishers Cross best represents the World Hurdle this season where he finished third and had the Long Walk Hurdle winner, Reve De Sivola, back in eighth. Not one of the last 13 winners of this Punchestown race ran in the Long Walk Hurdle. On the other hand, two winners in the last decade had contested the Pertemps Final where they finished unplaced which was won by Fingal Bay off top weight and the form has worked out well with Southfield Theatre (2nd) winning at the weekend, Pineau De Re (3rd) only went and won the Grand National and Trustan Times (4th) was then placed in the Scottish National. Jetson was back in fifth beaten 2½ lengths in the Pertemps Final but is 9lb worse off with Fingal Bay here. The shock Cleeve Hurdle winner, Knockara Beau, also ran at the Festival when seventh in the Gold Cup and Sadler’s Risk was well beaten in the Coral Cup. Six of the last ten winners ran at the Grand National Meeting so running at both Cheltenham and Aintree has been no barrier to success and At Fishers Cross finished second in the Liverpool Hurdle despite running with a ripped shoe for much of the race which may have affected his jumping as he lacked fluency at times again. Jetson was fourth in the 3m handicap hurdle, a race that Carly’s Quest and Refinement contested prior to winning here having also run in the Pertemps Final on their previous start. Not only have nine of the last 12 winners won at 3m+ (Sadler’s Risk and Glens Melody haven’t), they have managed it in Grade 1 events where, in theory, the stamina argument becomes even more important given they should attract a better class horse and, in turn, a better gallop placing more emphasis on staying prowess. Two of those exceptions were trained by Willie Mullins. Non Grade 1 winners are Jetson, Knockara Beau, Mourad and Sadler’s Risk. Ten of the last 13 winners won last time out which is a positive for Bog Warrior, Quevega and Fingal Bay. In fact, only one of the last 17 winners failed to at least place last time out which is another negative for Sadler’s Risk, Reve De Sivola and Mourad plus Knockara Beau. Short List Quevega Fingal Bay (Bog Warrior) Conclusion Hard to get away from Quevega on form and trends and she should make it five wins on the spin. Recent reports are that she is also in foal to Beat Hollow and as being in foal is also regarded as a positive in that it improves mares, that factor could even see her improve again. She does tend to improve from Cheltenham to Punchestown impressing more here than at Prestbury Park and I felt her win in this race last season was her best ever so I would expect her to beat Glens Melody more comfortably this time than at Cheltenham. The fresher Fingal Bay could be more of a threat than the busier At Fishers Cross. The latter was ready to run in early November but was withdrawn on the morning at Wetherby so this has been a long season for him. Fingal Bay won the Pertamps Final off top weight which has surprisingly been a better guide to this Grade 1 race than the World Hurdle and Philip Hobbs’ record at the Punchestown Festival from few runners speaks for itself. Bog Warrior bypassed the Cheltenham Festival unlike most winners and would want it softer but he arrives here off a win, and is a proven Grade 1 horse and a proven 3m performer so he might be interesting returning to hurdles for the first time since he traded at around Even money two out in last season’s World Hurdle before he faded into fifth and was found to have returned with what was feared at the time as a career-ending injury. 6:05 Naas Court Hotel And Il Fico Restaurant Handicap Hurdle Only two winners have carried more than 10st 11lb in the last 11 years so hopefully that might be the quickest way cutting this 25-runner 3m handicap hurdle by around half? Again, I would prefer to look to horses that may have been plotted up for this than more obvious in-form contenders. Short List Annie Oakley Inis Meain Everything Zain Express Du Berlais Off The Charts Conclusion Annie Oakley may have only won once in nine hurdles starts but that victory was the only occasion when she ran over timber at Punchestown and also over this 3m trip so Jessica Harrington may have been working backwards from this date since then and she was kept ticking along by being sent over fences last time out. After that victory, her trainer stated that she stays all day so the big field should place even more emphasis on stamina that will play to her strengths. Dessie Hughes gave Everything Zain a spin on the Flat 19 days ago and he ran pretty well too finishing sixth of 19 which can have put him right for this first step up to 3m which can hopefully bring around the required improvement. Having finished second in seven of his 16 starts and just a sole success, maybe he is more of an each-way option. Hughes also runs Off The Charts in a first-time visor who won two handicaps in J P McManus’ colours before never getting competitive at Fairyhouse last week. If the new headgear works, then he looked most progressive before his last run. Express Du Berlais is a lightly-raced winning pointer over 3m who won a handicap hurdle over trip last month in the Gigginstown colours but was disappointing at Fairyhouse just ten days ago. The fact he is out again so quickly is interesting as is the fact he is more lightly raced than most of these. Inis Meain was narrowly beaten in a three-way finish to a Listed race on the Flat just five days ago so is the class act. If I fancied him off a similar hurdles mark for the Pertemps Final (which I did) only to be balloted out and then win a Listed Flat race before his good run last weekend, I have to fancy him again providing he has recovered in time. 6:40 Ryanair Novice Chase I would argue that is now Ireland’s top novice chase of the season over any distance. Upgraded from Grade 2 status into a Grade 1 affair in 1998, the Brits have started to target the race more as a consequence and have a fine record since that elevation in race status winning on five of the last ten occasions in which they have been represented and the impressive Maghull Novices’ Chase winner, Balder Succes, flies the flag this season after he easily despatched Trifolium. The Maghull has featured five winners in the last 17 years, two of which completed this double. The Arkle Trophy featured the winner again last year, the eleventh time in the last 17 years, and Champagne Fever (2nd), Trifolium (3rd) and Ted Veale (fell two out when well held) represent that Cheltenham for this season. It is still hard to believe that Western Warhorse denied Champagne Fever right on the line so if you take the view that a head-defeat is as good as a win for this purpose, you will be interested to know that four of the seven Arkle winners to run here have won. However, I would also argue that we should not be put off by a contender that failed to fire for whatever reason in the Arkle as Captain Cee Bee was a well-beaten eighth at Cheltenham after breaking a blood vessel before bouncing back to win here adding to the likes of Another Promise and War Of Attrition who were also well beaten in the Arkle and non-completions from Le Roi Miguel, Accordion Etoile and Arvika Ligeonneire before they struck in this Grade 1 event. The best Irish guide with five winners in the last 13 years has been the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Meeting. This season’s race was won by the now-injured Defy Logic who beat a held-up Trifolium and Champagne Fever, though the third lost all chance by banking the penultimate fence. The winner then broke a blood vessel when well beaten by Trifolium in the Irish Arkle. Surprisingly, that Grade 1 race run in late January had not featured the winner of this race until 2012 but has now featured the last two winners. As many as 17 of the last 19 runnings were won by novices aged 7+, so this is where Champagne Fever could hold the edge over his main rival, Balder Success, as the latter is just six, as are God’s Own and Arnaud though only two six-year-olds have run in the last four years. However, the last 12 winners had all taken part in at least four chase races and Champagne Fever has only run in three whereas this is Balder Succes’ eighth chase start. Two eight-year-olds take their chance in Felix Yonger and Moscow Mannon and horses aged 8+ have won nine times since 1992 which could not compare any more differently to the Arkle where the only two winners aged older than seven since 1988 had the class to be crowned the Champion Chaser the following season. Perhaps older horses hold their form better at this stage of the season? Only one of the last 19 winners has started at bigger than 6/1 so don’t go looking for an upset. The favourite won last season at 7/2 adding to the odds-on victories for Captain Chris, Le Roi Miguel and Moscow Flyer. Short List Trifolium (Champagne Fever) Conclusion Unlike the 3m novice chase at this meeting, this Grade 1 race has been dominated by the leading fancies down the years but both the big two of Champagne Fever (just three chase starts) and Balder Succes (only a six-year-old) have a negative to overcome so Trifolium, although beaten by both when placed at Cheltenham and Aintree, would just sneak it from a trends point of view having also contested the major guides. Given that the Arkle has been the key guide and Champagne Fever all but won it, I would prefer him to Balder Succes as his negative of having just three chase starts was overcome by Tiutchev who won the Arkle so out-and-out class can overcome that factor and we know that Champagne Fever is right out of the top drawer and probably would have won at Cheltenham if he did not endure a far from ideal preparation. The rest should start at bigger than 6/1 and only one winner in the last 20 years has been sent off at bigger so if Trifolium starts at 13/2+ then there are no qualifiers if we take the Key Trends is the book literally as all eight runners would then have a statistical negative to overturn. 7:15 Drinkwater Construction & Orchid Transport Mares Novice Hurdle The second running of this mares’ novice hurdle. Willie Mullins is so strong in this division over the last few years and he took the inaugural running with an odds-on favourite and, although he has better novice mares in his stable than Vicky De L’Oasis, Urticaire and Florishwells D’Ete, they are still officially the highest three rated horses in this race. Morga is an interesting recruit to hurdling though being a 93-rated filly on the Flat for Jim Bolger who won her hurdles debut for Desmond McDonogh, David Pipe sends over Western Diva and the hat-trick chasing Whisper Rock also has to be respected so Mullins may not get it all his own way. Short List Urticaire Vicky De L’Oasis Morga Conclusion Morga only won once on the Flat in 14 attempts but she was rated 93 so is entitled to respect and especially having won at Cork on her maiden hurdle debut 11 days ago. Whether she can cope with the Mullins trio off the back of just one hurdles run is another matter and Urticaire sets the standard on her 1½ lengths’ second to Upsie three starts back given that it was Upsie who won this race last year. Since then this six-year-old was narrowly beaten in a Grade 3 when a shade of odds-on and third in the Grade 1 mares hurdle behind Adriana Des Mottes three weeks ago. Vicky De L’Oasis is preferred to Florishwells D’Ete of the other Mullins pair with the latter not matching the form of her hurdles debut win on her next two starts. Vicky De L’Oasis, on the other hand, has been most consistent finishing runner-up on her last three starts, two of which in pattern races. At the time of writing, jockey bookings have not been announced but clearly I would be favouring which Mullins representative that Walsh rides. David Pipe sends over Western Diva who made a successful hurdling debut just 11 days ago at Market Rasen by seven lengths having previously finished fourth to Ballyboley in a Towcester bumper and that winner then won a big bumper prize at the Grand National Meeting. Whisper Rock has won his last two races for Philip Fenton, one in a bumper and then on her hurdling debut on soft/heavy but is expected to enjoy this ground more. 7:45 Kildare Post Bumper A bumper for horses aged between 4-7 that have won no more than once under Rules which is having its fourth running and all 13 horses have run of which 11 have won so this is competitive. Short List Tell Us More Champoleon Patsio Conclusion Being the only Mullins representative did not stop the yard having a 12/1 bumper on the opening day of this meeting and the stable are doubly represented here. The pick looks to be the Gigginstown-owned, imposing Tell Us More who is unbeaten in two starts adding a Gowran Park bumper by 12 lengths to a point-to-point success so I would not go expecting too tasty a price about him. Mullins also runs Most Peculiar who won at the third time of asking so I would be concerned that he couldn’t win on either of his first two starts for him to be one of the yards better bumper horses. Noel Meade’s Champoleon is the only four-year-old so receives 8lb from most of his rivals and won his sole bumper start well at Naas in January in a newcomers’ event under Nina Carberry who rides again. I liked the fact that he took a little time to work out what to do but was well on top at the end so he should come on plenty for that experience. The third that day ran pretty well when fifth of 19 here on Day 1 behind the brilliant winner, Forgotten Rules. Patsio is given the final short list berth. Philip Fenton knows the time of day with bumper horses and he got off the mark last month on his third start on his first run since October having pulled a muscle on his previous start so he is likely to progress again.

[National Hunt Racing > Wednesday April 30th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Wednesday April 30th 3:40 Martinstown Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle Next to impossible with plotted-up horses aplenty I’m sure about to leave their form miles behind. Many small yards have won this Final in the ten years since it was first run and Willie Mullins would be the only big name trainer to have won it. The seven winners between 2004-2010 carried no more than 11st but classier horses have taken over recently with the last three winners carrying 11st 4lb, 11st 7lb and 11st 8lb, notably Beau Michael who became the oldest winner of this race when successful as a nine-year-old at 25/1 last year and he is back to defend his title. Maguire’s Glen, Master Oscar, Ghareer, Hotelinthewall Bar and Highbrow Blue line up here off the back of last-time-out wins. Short List Beau Michael Sea Light Master Oscar Diyala Conclusion Beau Michael can put in a bold bid to win this race for the second year running. He is only off a 1lb higher mark this time than last year and had a warm up for this with a spin on the Flat 18 days ago. He also prepped on the Flat ahead of winning this race last year. He was also fourth in this race in 2012 so you can be certain this has been the season-long plan and I couldn’t put you off an each-way sniff in this huge field. Sea Light arrives here off the back of break of 95 days and Charles Byrnes has turned to Ger Fox claiming 4lb so I would argue that he has the best rider in the race on his side. The longish break could also suggest this has been the plan since mid-winter when he completed a hat-trick in the space of five weeks before finishing fourth in the always-competitive Boylesports.com Hurdle. I doubt that the market will miss him however. Master Oscar appeals most of the five last-time-out winners on his handicap debut for Christy Roche having won a maiden hurdle four weeks ago in first-time cheekpieces. Whether he is a mudlark is an obvious question in which case he might struggle but I would be hopeful it might have been the new headgear that worked the oracle last time, in which case, he’s a player. Diyala would be my final stab in the near dark in a ridiculously-difficult handicap hurdle. It’s just a gut feeling more than anything else as I like the fact Gordon Elliott has not run her for 138 days (if that is by design) and this is her first handicap over timber having had little chance taking on Faugheen two starts back. 4:20 Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle Restricted to horses with no more than one win over timber of any age and the horse to beat on official ratings is the eight-year-old, Cheltenian. However, since his good fourth in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in a race dominated by novices, he was pulled up after being backed into 5/1 favouritism for the County Hurdle but bounced back when fourth of 22 beaten just over two lengths when upped to this 2m4f trip at Aintree so I don’t know what happened at Cheltenham. Despite his age, Cheltenian has only had nine runs in his career and this looks a great opportunity for him and the Hobbs yard who do well on their trips to this meeting which his owner, Roger Brookhouse, also loves. Interesting that Alan King sends over Carraig Mor who was ante-post favourite for the Albert Bartlett until he was beaten at long odds-on at Ascot in November after which his trainer said he needs plenty of time. Beaten at odds-on again on his next start at Huntingdon, that tight course wouldn’t be his track being a big horse who is very much a three-mile chaser in the making. Whether he would be racing here if he wasn’t running in the same ownership as Balder Succes who runs here on Thursday, I have severe doubts, and he could find this all happening too quickly at this stage of his career. A third British challenger is Nicky Henderson’s dual Irish point-to-point winner, Medieval Chapel, who receives 6lb from all bar one rival being a maiden. He wasn’t disgraced when fourth to the subsequent Tolworth Hurdle winner on his hurdles debut at Ascot but was a bit disappointing behind the classy Seeyouatmidnight next time at Musselburgh but he is lightly raced and has been given plenty of time by his patient handler. The Irish team is headed by Le Vent D’Antan who had a big reputation as a bumper horse and started joint-favourite for last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper when seventh behind Briar Hill and he is a big horse just starting to work out what is required over hurdles. Placed on his first two starts over timber over 2m, he then won when raised to this trip by nine lengths when fully expected to at odds of 2/5 but his best run was second last time out in a Grade 2 behind Lieutenant Colonel. Willie Mullins runs two; Beluckyagain who was a seven lengths’ second to stablemate, Adriana Des Mottes, in the Grade 1 Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse three weeks ago (don’t read anything into that Grade 1 status though) at 20/1 and Val De Ferbet who disappointed badly on his only run for Mullins beaten 39 lengths having been sent off 6/4 favourite having won at Pau on his previous start, so it is hard to know what to make of him. Henry De Bromhead’s Sizing Granite is interesting having improved with each of his three hurdle runs culminating in an easy win last time, Dessie Hughes also runs a last-time-out winner in Emperor Of Exmoor who beat 24 rivals at Fairyhouse last week and also don’t dismiss the giant Flaming Dawn for Edward O’Grady and J P McManus who has been disappointing since he made a winning debut over timber but was considered an Albert Bartlett type after he won at Tramore. Wounded Warrior completes the field for Noel Meade who has a shout on his fourth to Sure Reef in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown in January. Short List Cheltenian Medieval Chapel Le Vent D’Antan Conclusion Cheltenian is the horse to beat for sure having won a Champion Bumper but more so on his fourth in the Betfair Hurdle and another competitive handicap hurdle at the Grand National Meeting. He will be tough to beat if he can reproduce that level of form on his travels and has more experience than these plus the Hobbs yard do very well on their trips to the Punchestown Festival. I suspect the well regarded Carraig Mor is only running here as Balder Succes runs in the same colours tomorrow and this will be too tough a task at this stage of his career so Medieval Chapel appeals more and especially receiving 6lb. He may have been beaten 14 lengths at Ascot on his hurdles debut but Henderson usually runs his most promising novices at that course in the early part of the season so I reckon he will end up being pretty useful, in which chase, I can see a big run here, and his young horses traditionally fare well at this meeting. Best of the Irish can prove to be Le Vent D’Antan who is getting to grips with what is required and there was no disgrace in finishing second to a quality novice in Lieutenant Colonel last time out. 4.55 Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle First run in 2008 and upgraded to a Grade 1 race two years ago having previously been a standard novice hurdle and then a Grade 3 and Grade 2, therefore this staying novice hurdle equivalent of Cheltenham’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle is still finding its feet to an extent so trends are thin on the ground. In its half a dozen runnings however, this contest has provided a few shocks with The Midnight Club being the only successful favourite in amongst four double-figure priced winners – Morning Assembly becoming the latest 12 months ago at 14/1. Askanna is the biggest priced winner when beating Mossey Joe at 33/1 three years ago. Possibly significantly, even if it is early days, is that of the six winners only The Midnight Club (third in the Albert Bartlett) ran at the Cheltenham Festival and that was then this was only a Grade 3 novice hurdle. Three of the front four in the market ran at Cheltenham with Very Wood taking the Albert Bartlett in first-time cheekpieces at 33/1 where he had Apache Jack 4½ lengths back in third, and Don Poli recorded a higher official rating when winning the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. Shanahan’s Turn also ran at Cheltenham where he finished eighth in the Neptune having run well for a long way. Willie Mullins has won two runnings with The Midnight Club and Marasonnien but was out of luck last season when his favourite and second-favourite, Ballycasey and Inish Island, finished third and second respectively behind Morning Assembly. He did saddle the 1-2-3 the previous season however. He relies on Don Poli this time with Walsh in the saddle for the Gigginstown-owned runner who are also represented by Very Wood with Paul Carberry keeping the ride. Surprisingly, only The Midnight Club of the race’s six winners had won over three miles under Rules but it is early days yet and as far as I am concerned, a win over this trip has to be viewed as a positive. Beat That and Very Wood have both won Grade 1 races over 3m+. Five of the six winners were aged five or six – Lots Of Memories and Captainofthefleet are seven-year-olds. Short List Beat That Don Poli Conclusion Cheltenham Festival form has not been a significant factor so far, in fact five of the six winners bypassed that meeting so, in a race where trends are still finding their feet, perhaps Beat That is the one to concentrate on of the big four in the betting having had four months off in between finishing second in a Grade 2 at Sandown over 2m4f in December where he shaped like the best horse but looked immature and when winning the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree over 3m1f where he and the runner-up pulled 25 lengths clear of 16 rivals. Very Wood reversed Slaney Novice Hurdle form with Apache Jack when causing a 33/1 shock in first-time cheekpieces in the Albert Bartlett under a terrific hold up ride when they both improved for the step up to three miles. Those tactics might not be so well suited to a smaller field but he did win one of the bumpers at this meeting last year. Given Willie Mullins’ record in this race, I would just side with Don Poli over the Albert Bartlett form, especially as the Handicapper rated that handicap win a better performance than Very Wood recorded in the Grade 1 staying novice event at Cheltenham and I just have to question the Albert Bartlett form as the big two of Briar Hill and Kings Palace both fell, though the latter was well beaten at the time. 5:30 Bibby Financial Services Ireland Punchestown Gold Cup It is advantageous to race on the pace on the chase course at this meeting and five of the last eight winners were leading from as far as four out. Extend that to six of the last eight were in front three out if including Sir Des Champs last season who also committed for home earlier than you might have expected. A very good race indeed for favourite backers with eight of the last 12 proving successful and six of the last seven Irish-trained favourites have won. Maybe Boston Bob will usurp the ante-post favourite, On His Own, at the head of the market now that Ruby Walsh has opted to ride the Melling Chase winner over the narrow Gold Cup runner-up. I have to confess, I thought Sir Des Champs finished so legless when second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last season that he would struggle to run to the same rating but in beating the Gold Cup third, Long Run, by a similar margin as six weeks earlier it looks like they both ran up to their best despite being the pair that forced the issue in jumping’s blue riband on the second circuit 12 months ago. Either that or they both ran a little below form but were still good enough, which is very possible. I mention this as I suspect this season’s Mullins-trained Gold Cup runner-up, On His Own, will also struggle to match his Cheltenham performance as he had one heck of a hard race being on the pace from the outset before dropping back and re-rallying under an ultra strong ride that earned his jockey a seven-day ban to almost get up to beat Lord Windermere. Sir Des Champs’ victory meant that seven of the last ten winners contested the Cheltenham Gold Cup of which On His Own and Lyreen Legend (6th) took part this year. Two years ago China Rock was the only Gold Cup representative in the field though he could finish only eighth in the blue riband beaten 48 lengths bur he won here at 20/1. Given that the best Irish guide of the John Durkan Memorial Chase has no representation this season, the Lexus Chase, which has thrown up four of the last 11 winners, looks to be the Irish race to concentrate on. First Lieutenant finished second in that race for the second time this season and had Lyreen Legend back in fifth who was having his seasonal debut so he was entitled to need that run. The Irish Hennessy Gold Cup has not been a good Gold Cup guide but it is catching up with the Lexus as a Punchestown Gold Cup pointer featuring three of the last ten winners but only one of those horses completed the double. First Lieutenant also had Lyreen Legend behind that day when they finished third and fifth respectively. You may also want to bear in mind that three of the last 12 winners contested last year’s renewal, two of which finished in the first time two. Sir Des Champs beat Long Run by ¾ length last season with a half a length back to First Lieutenant. Nine of the last ten Irish-trained winners had won at Punchestown before. Therefore, since this became a Grade 1 race in 1999, only Follow The Plan was recording his first success at Punchestown of Irish-trained winners. Boston Bob, First Lieutenant, Foil Dubh and Noble Prince are the only course winners taking their chance. When China Rock won as a nine-year-old two years ago in a very weak renewals he a little surprisingly became the oldest winner since 2003 so any if the four ten-year-olds, Medermit, Foil Dubh, Noble Prince or On His Own, would be an unusual winner in this respect. Eight of the last 12 winners had already won a Grade 1 race though how much we should read into that I have my doubts as three of the last five winners were breaking their duck at the very highest level when victorious here. Short List First Lieutenant Boston Bob Lyreen Legend Conclusion I don’t particularly like his right-handed course profile or the fact that for a horse with his talent First Lieutenant has won just once in his last 16 starts but being a course winner like nine of the last ten Irish-trained winners, a Grade 1 winner like 8 of the last 12 winners who likes to race prominently and has contested many of the key guides, though not the biggest of the Gold Cup, he would be the trends pick and his supporters will be hoping first-time blinkers can help him travel better than when slightly disappointing on his last two starts. On His Own would be the oldest winner for over a decade and had a very hard race in the Gold Cup so I can see why Ruby Walsh has opted for the fresher Boston Bob who did not race in the first half of the season and who bounded away over a trip many thought was too short for him in the Melling Chase, and his decision could easily see him start favourite and six of the last seven Irish-trained favourites have won. Lyreen Legend was unplaced in the Lexus Chase , Irish Hennessy and Gold Cup but they have been the best three relevant guides and he has improved with all three races this season and will be fresher than most so I would fancy a big run from him and expect him to repay each-way support. 6:05 Attheraces Champion Bumper The most prestigious of the six bumpers scheduled at the Punchestown Festival and, unlike the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, it is restricted to amateur riders and seven-year-olds are allowed to take part. As the Weatherbys Champion Bumper is the only other Grade 1 race of its type, it stands to reason it is likely to be the most significant guide which is the case by a huge margin. Since this Grade 1 event at Punchestown was first run in 1992, 11 winners contested the Cheltenham version of which ten finished in the first six at Prestbury Park. Three of the first six winners finished second at Cheltenham so we had to wait 17 years until Cousin Vinny became the first horse to complete the Cheltenham-Punchestown double and he was quickly followed a year later by the Philip Fenton-trained Dunguib (disqualified months later due to a banned substance found in his system) in 2009 and then Champagne Fever won both races two years ago. This year’s race features four of the first six home at home at Cheltenham headed by Dermot Weld’s Silver Concorde who in victory had the Willie Mullins trio of Shaneshill (2nd), Black Hercules (4th) and Killutagh Vic (6th) behind, but not that far behind as the latter, who was officially top-rated heading into the race but generally regarded as the stable third string, was only beaten five lengths. Value At Risk also ran and finished thirteenth. Of the 11 winners that ran in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper only Hidden Universe (19th) in 2010 had finished out of the first six. Regards Silver Concorde, although three Champion Bumper winners passed the post in front here, it is also worth remembering that five winners were also beaten here. Very strange how British-trained horses have a far better record in this Grade 1 race than the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival and the David Pipe-trained The Liquidator was another winner last year. Since this race became a Grade 1 in1995, the Brits started to take a keener in interest and won four times in the next 11 years when they were seriously outnumbered which was certainly surprising to me given that they could hardly bag a Weatherbys Champion Bumper within the same time frame when being responsible for the majority of the field. In addition to their five winners, British-trained horses have supplied five runners-up. David Pipe returns again, this time with Seven Nation Army who beat the subsequent Weatherbys Champion Bumper third at Ascot before disappointing in very heavy ground at Newbury so he has the form to go close. The second British raider is the Harry Fry-trained Jollyallan who won his only start 28 days ago by 15 lengths at Wincanton making all and quickening clear. In fact he was so impressive that J P McManus stepped in and said yes please. If he wasn’t now owned by McManus, you can be virtually certain that Harry Fry wouldn’t be sending him over. It is hard, however, to win this race off just one run as only one once-raced winner has won which was Sweeps Hill (also in the McManus silks) who was the chief beneficiary of Dunguib’s disqualification a few months later. In addition to Jollyallan, Aniknam also arrives here off the back of winning his only start. So, just one run isn’t ideal and neither is too many runs as 12 of the last 15 winners had raced no more than three times under Rules and two of the three that didn’t were trained by Noel Meade who is unrepresented. So, a twice or thrice-raced bumper horse would be ideal which is against Silver Concorde, Killultagh Vic and Seven Nation Army who have run in four bumpers. As with the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, there was a time when I was keen to take on four-year-olds but, after struggling terribly in this race (as they did at Cheltenham) it has been different of late (as it also has for Cheltenham) with Dermot Weld’s Hidden Universe winning in 2010 aged four and the same yard went close again the following season with another four-year-old when Waaheb was only beaten a short-head. Although he is not a four-year-old, Silver Concorde’s supporters can take from the fact he is Weld-trained given he knows what it takes in this race and his stable continues in excellent form. The two four-year-olds to take their chance are Aniknam and Willie Mullins’ supposedly fourth-string Aminabad in his bid for a fifth win in this race and he has booked Katie Walsh who has won two of his three starts. Short List Shaneshill Black Hercules (Silver Concorde) Conclusion The Weatherbys Champion Bumper has to be the starting point with 11 of the 22 winners having recorded a top-six finish in that race. There are four such qualifiers here but as Killultagh Vic has had four bumper runs and seemingly beaten on merit by three of his rivals, I can let him go. Of the eight winners that have attempted to complete the double, three passed the post in front on the day which is a fair return and, as Silver Concorde is also trained by Dermot Weld who has a recent winner and narrow runner-up in this race, it would be harsh to leave him off the short list because he has run in four bumpers which is one more than ideal. Shaneshill beat Black Hercules by 2½ lengths when they were second and fourth behind Silver Concorde but there should not be much between them given plenty of use was made by Black Hercules that day and he also ran wider ran the final bend than the winner and runner-up plus Patrick Mullins keeps the ride whereas Walsh is now replaced by Jamie Codd on Shaneshill as this race is restricted to amateur riders. Both have a big chance of giving Willie Mullins a fifth win in the race. Seven Nation Army has the form to be a factor for last season’s winning stable but he didn’t run at Cheltenham which has been a very positive stat and has had one more run than ideal but he can still run well. 6:40 Guinness Handicap Chase Following novices in handicap at the big spring Festivals is never a bad thing and they have an eye-catching record in the most valuable handicap chase of the meeting winning seven of the last 15 runnings (Klepht being the latest last year at 12/1). Novices taking part are the Arthur Moore-trained pair of Pass The Hat (though a second-season chaser) and Miteball Forluck plus King Vuvuzela for Paul Nolan who won this handicap in successive years with Torduff Boy (2002 and 2003) and his Kymandjen only found one too good two years later. Tony Martin also likes to lay one out for this valuable handicap and has trained two winners. In addition, he has also gone close with Ross River finishing second so his Gift Of Dgab has to be of interest. Surprisingly there are no Willie Mullins runners having won this race five times in the last ten years. Three fairly recent winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival in the Grand Annual, Byrne Group Plate and Arkle Trophy. Competitive Edge fell in the Grand Annual and King Vuvuzela was tenth in the novices’ handicap chase. Philip Hobbs’ Bouchasson followed up his shock 50/1 win in Ayr’s Future Champions Novices’ chase by winning here 14 years ago but that was the last time a British-trained horse proved successful. That said, the Brits have only found one too good in two of the last five seasons and Paul Nicholls sends over Grandioso and Richard Lee lets Hector’s Choice take his chance. Eleven of the last 15 winners carried under 11st and, in the last nine seasons alone, 31 of the 36 top-four places have gone the way of horses carrying less than 11st so it was some performance for Scotsirish to win off 11st 10lb three years ago. The previous winner to carry more than 11st 6lb was the Aidan O’Brien-trained Idiots Venture in 1997 who had finished third in a Grade 1 the previous day. And don’t be concerned if your fancy failed to finish in the first three last time out as 11 of the last 14 winners failed to occupy a top-three slot on their previous outing yet 12 of the last 17 winners started between second and fourth-favourite which suggests that this is a handicap for plotted-up horses. Short List King Vuvuzela Pass The Hat Gift Of Dgab Conclusion Given the excellent record of novices in this race plus the Paul Nolan yard having saddled two winners and a second since 2002 then his King Vuvuzela makes most appeal. He is also one of just two contenders that took their chance at the Cheltenham Festival where he was held up and could never get on terms finishing tenth in the novices’ handicap chase and, as an added bonus, he also has course-and-distance winning form. On his previous start before Cheltenham, he was a good fourth of 21 in a better handicap than this at Leopardstown in January. Gift Of Dgab has not run over fences since he was pulled up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham and has the look of a horse that might have been laid out for this race, like his trainer has done twice before and he only carries 1lb over 11st so I can see a big run from him as I can Pass The Hat who looks the pick of the Arthur Moore-trained novices as Mitebeall Forluck runs from 7lb out of the handicap. He is a second-season chaser so wouldn’t have the same scope to progress as King Vuvuzela but he arrives here in great form having won at Leopardstown last time. Wise Old Owl has his first run for 637 days but he is lightly-raced for a ten-year-old and was second in the 2011 Galway Plate two starts ago for J P McManus. With Ger Fox taking off 7lb, it wouldn’t surprise me if this race has been a long term plan even off a long layoff. 7:15 O’Reilly Recruitment Bumper The fourth running of this bumper for horses not to have won under Rules aged five, six or seven. Unlike the Day 1 bumpers, at least there is some form to dissect as 12 of the 18 runners have run. Short List Virtuoso Rouge Totally Dominant Fletchers Flyer Conclusion Totally Dominant is rather aptly named for a Willie Mullins-trained bumper horse but he has been beaten into in both starts in the Susannah Ricci colours. That said, arguably he marginally has the best form and maybe he wasn’t mature enough to win last year as he has not run for 360 days and his trainer has given him the time he needs? I am only guessing however. The stable won this race two years ago and it wouldn’t shock too many if Totally Dominant returned a stronger horse than when last sighted a year ago and lands this finale. Virtuoso Rouge represents Noel Meade, Nina Carberry and Gigginstown Stud and was second on his sole bumper at Navan as 7/4 favourite having travelled best for the most part after winning a point-to-point on his previous start. The likelihood is that he ran into a decent horse at Navan in Noble Emperor as Tony Martin described him afterwards as a proper horse so he might be the one today. Harry Fry sends over Fletchers Flyer but as he is owned by the same people that own Balder Succes (and Carraig Mor) who both run at the meeting, we can surely assume this is an owner-based decision. Still, he has a chance having won his only point-to-point and then finished second on his sole bumper start at Uttoxeter.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread tom segals tip for day 2 of punchestown: 4 for Tom Segal on Wed 4.55 Punchestown Apache Jack 10/1 5.30 Punchestown Lyreen Legend 7/1 6.40 Punchestown Competitive Edge 12/1 6.40 Punchestown Mitebeall Forluck.

[National Hunt Racing > Tuesday April 29th]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Tuesday April 29th 3:40 Kildare Hunt Club FR Sean Breen Memorial Chase Not the most inspiring race to kick off the five days often being the worst cross country race at the meeting but it a race in which I has fared well in down in the years. Enda Bolger has won four of the last eight runnings so inevitably much of the focus will be on his quartet of Be Positive (Nina Carberry and in a first-time hood), Phar And Away (Derek O’Connor), Fade Away (Mr B Linehan) and Wish Ye Didn’t (Mr T Ryan). Jockey bookings suggest the first-named pair can be the two to concentrate on and they are also the youngest four horses in the 18-runner line up aged five or six. The horse to beat, however, might be last season’s 7½ lengths’ runner-up Lord Hawkfield as horses to run well in this race the previous year have a good record. Connections have also turned to a hood for the first time and the same jockey, who has only ridden him once in his last 16 starts, is reunited with him so it looks for all the world that he has been primed to go one place better and I doubt any of his rivals today would have beaten Zest For Life who won the race 12 months ago. He was also tracking the leaders in this race two years ago when exiting six out in a race eventually won by Big Shu no less. Big Shu’s trainer is represented this time by Enniskillen who was sixth last year and has run well at Punchestown more than once over the standrad fences including winning a point-to-point here in February so he can go well. Arthur Moore’s Linnel could also be quite interesting over these fences. Not disgraced when fifth to a hunter chaser as good as Warne three starts ago (beaten just under ten lengths though a couple of others beat him as well of course), he was second in the Grand Sefton Chase over the Grand National fences as just a six-year-old in 2011 but he has clearly lost his way since then but shows he likes quirky tests. Short List Lord Hawkfield Be Positive Enniskillen Conclusion Although this is little better than a point-to-point (if that) it has been a good starting point for me down the years and is usually dominated by the leading fancies (13/2 biggest SP of winner in the last nine years) though it has been six years since the favourite won. Last season’s runner-up, Lord Hawkfield, who was also going okay when he exited two years ago, looks like he has been trained with this one race in mind and a first-time hood has been applied so he might be hard to kick out of the frame in a race featuring more dead wood than my back garden. I like the fact that horses who have run well in this race before often return and run well again. Wedger Pardy and Zest For Life, for example, are both dual winners in the last six years. Jockey bookings make me lean the way of Be Positive of the Bolger quartet with Nina Carberry keeping the ride after a no-show at Fairyhouse last time in a hunter chase which was probably a prep to get him ready to give the yard their fifth win in this race in the last nine years. A first-time hood today suggests that might be the case. I will take a chance on Enniskillen rather than any of the three other Bolger runners to complete the short list. Sixth last year for a stable that won this race two years ago and a winner of a point-to-point two months ago, he could also start at a nice each-way price. 4:20 Herald Champion Novice Hurdle Dawn Run, Hurricane Fly, Moscow Flyer, Brace Inca and Jezki, not a bad Roll of Honour and this season’s renewal looks up to scratch headed by the Neptune winner, Faugheen. Willie Mullins has thrown a curve ball by wanting to drop him in distance to 2m here and raise the brilliant Supreme winner, Vautour, up to 2m4f later in the week and it would be nice to hear an explanation why, but so far that has not been forthcoming though from his comments it has more to do with wanting to see Faugheen over this trip than Vautour over further. Had Vautour run here instead, he would have started an even shorter price favourite than Faugheen will who is currently a shade of odds-on. The favourite has a good record despite six Supreme winners being turned over here having won over half of the last 20 runnings. The last ten winners could be found in the first four in the betting. I would have looked to take Vautour on here given that the record of the Supreme winner has been surprisingly poor record in this race but as Neptune winners usually run in the 2m4f novice hurdle, we can’t make a similar judgement or otherwise about Faugheen. What I would say, however, is that Neptune winners have a fare better record of following up at Punchestown than the Supreme winners, though how relevant that is given that he drops 5f in trip, I have my doubts. He will certainly need to hurdle much slicker than he did in the Neptune and also his two previous starts dropping back to 2m. Faugheen is a Grade 1 winner and, as 11 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race, he is just one of three qualifiers on that count as The Liquidator won the Grade 1 Bumper at this meeting last season (albeit a weak renewal) and Valseur Lido won at Grade 2 at Fairyhouse earlier in the month. Jezki hit the frame last year in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle before winning this prize and the Supreme is the best relevant guide this year with four winners going back to Brave Inca given that the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle is unrepresented and five of this octet took part in the traditional Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser with Sgt Reckless (4th) finishing ahead of Wicklow Brave (6th), Western Boy (7th), Valseur Lido (10th) and The Liquidator (11th). Vautour was in a class of his own on that occasion but just six lengths covered the next 11 horses home so there is not a lot between this quintet that re-oppose each other today. Wicklow Brave shaped like a non-stayer at the highest level at Cheltenham dropping back from second to sixth on the run-in and has since run like a tired horse when only sixth behind Valseur Lido and Real Steel in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse since. Sgt Reckless has since finished second at Aintree behind the Supreme second, Josses Hill, (pair clear but he finished five lengths further adrift of the winner than at Cheltenham) whereas Western Boy (previously made Vautour work for his win here in January) and The Liquidator have not run since. The Grade 2 novice hurdle run at Fairyhouse over Easter has been a very notable guide of late as it has been contested by three of the last six winners but that race was switched this year to take place 23 days ago (maybe as Easter was so late to give the winner a realistic chance of also running here) and was won by Valseur Lido who beat Real Steel by 4½ lengths with Wicklow Brave looking like this race was already one too many for the season running a listless sixth. Quickpic Vic was back in seventh. It was also a very taking win from a horse that had impressed in his first two hurdles starts before meeting with a setback which meant he entered the Supreme off a far-from-ideal preparation. There has been no British-trained winner for 17 years. That winner was Midnight Legend who won the Top Novices’ Hurdle on his previous start, the race in which Mick Channon’s Sgt Reckless was second earlier in the month. In total, the Brits have sent over just ten runners since his success but perhaps they are missing a trick because from such a small number they have claimed the runner up spot three times so he has each-way claims for sure, and I also think he will appreciate this stiffer course. All but three of the last 17 winners finished first or second last time out so a demonstration of a horse’s wellbeing on their previous start has proved important. That clearly counts against Wicklow Brave who was poor last time out in addition to Quickpic Vic and that also means Western Boy or The Liquidator would be unusual winners even if was a race as hot as the Supreme where they finished unplaced last time out. Short List Valseur Lido Faugheen Conclusion Valseur Lido looks a decent each-way alternative if the likely shade of odds-on about Faugheen doesn’t float your boat, even if this a race in which the favourite has collected 11 times in the last 20 years. The Grade 2 event at Fairyhouse earlier in the month has been an excellent recent guide to this race with three winners emerging from it in the last six years and there was much to enjoy about the style of that success and especially the way he made his ground between the last two flights, which was unsurprisingly a step up on his run in the Supreme as he did not have an ideal preparation heading into Cheltenham where he showed up well until two out. Of course the Supreme is also a decent guide to this race even if the record of the winner at Cheltenham isn’t great so that is another plus point for Valseur Lido but his stable companion, Faugheen, is clearly going to be a huge threat having won the Neptune so well despite errors at three of the last four flights. You only have to watch his bumper win from last May when he destroyed Josses Hill by 22 lengths not to have any concerns whether he has the basic pace to be as effective over 2m as he is over further and I don’t think they would see which way he goes if this were also a bumper but the combination of 2m with eight sets of hurdles means he is no cert to follow up his Cheltenham success if he jumps shoddily again. 4:55 Bragbet.com Handicap Hurdle The handicaps at this meeting are incredibly difficult and as the last 11 winners of this 18-runner, Grade B, 2m handicap hurdle have all started at a double-figure price, the very best of luck to you. Upgraded from a Class C event last year, eight of the last ten winners carried no more than 10st 7lb so my first inclination is to look at the bottom seven in the weights who carry 10st 7lb or less whereas there is a notable gap to the top 11 in the handicap carrying 10st 12lb+. The most lightweight interesting is the four-year-old, Sea Beat, for Arthur Moore who many fancied for the Fred Winter but he was balloted out so he has not run for 80 days when, in typical Fred Winter profile style, he won a maiden hurdle on his third start over timber to qualify for the race. Unfortunately they did too good a job and he had to miss Cheltenham. As such, he’s fresh and open to any amount of improvement and the yard won this race nine years ago with the subsequent Grade 1 winning chaser, Mansony. Nicky Henderson does well with his Punchestown runners and sends over Cool Macavity who has not run for 191 days. A useful Flat handicapper, he has won three of his six novice hurdles at low level so he might be better than jumps handicapper believes. Glen Beg and Rocky Wednesday were both sent to Aintree earlier in the month for the 2m handicap hurdle on Grand National day in which Glen Beg fared much the better in third behind Court Minstrel. Any softening in the ground will help there chance. Both should be considered, especially the mare. Of the higher weighted horses, City Slicker and Lucky Bridle represent Willie Mullins who has won two of the last eight runnings, the former having been outclassed in Grade 2 novice hurdles on his last two starts and the latter returning off a 152-day absence with his last start when winning a maiden hurdle at Thurles in a first-time hood for Graham Wylie but the yard have won handicaps at this meeting with horses returning from much longer breaks that have been aimed at this five-day fixture. Charlie Swan has turned to a hood for the first time for The Game Changer and I have to mention those this week after Cheltenham. Outclassed when eighth behind Josses Hill in a Grade 2 at Aintree last time out, this should be more his bag. Diplomat for the in-form Dermot Weld is also worthy of consideration. His last run was on the Flat 24 days ago when beaten at odds-on in a four-runner heavy-ground affair. If it was the ground he didn’t like (though he has won on Heavy before but he looked much better suited to Good ground with a win and a close-up third the next day at last year’s Galway Festival), he can be given another chance now back to hurdles where the last time we saw him was finishing in midfield in the viciously-competitive Boylesports.com Hurdle. Short List Sea Beat Glen Beg Lucky Bridle The Game Changer Conclusion Going with the low weights has been the way to go in this race so I will suggest two of those starting with the bottom weight Sea Beat who was a sneaky fancy for many for the Fred Winter at Cheltenham until he was balloted out. Glen Beg was on and off the bridle before finishing third at Aintree last time so that sharp track may have not been ideal for her but it was good run in a competitive race so she can also make her presence felt again here. Lucky Bridle would be my pick of the Mullins pair on his handicap debut and coming off a break so this could have been a long-hatched plan for a yard with two fairly recent wins in this race and I will throw in The Game Changer as the potential fly in the ointment wearing a hood for the first time and seemingly the number one hope of Gigginstown who won his only hurdles start at this course back in December. 5:30 Boylesports.com Champion Chase Since this race became a Grade 1 contest in 1999, all but two winners started in the first three in the betting and had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 event. The latter stat is therefore against the three-time Grade 3 winner, Baily Green, the two Cheltenham Festival handicap winners, Ballynagour and Savello, and the Dan Moore Handicap Chase winner, Turban. Hidden Cyclone has Grade 2 wins over hurdles to his name but has only won at Grade 3 level at best over fences. The best Irish two-miler chasers generally bypass Aintree for this Grade 1 contest but as their best three two-mile chasers (Flemenstar, Benefficient and Arvika Ligeonneire) are all injured, and the latter pair have probably run their last race, plus Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy also miss the race, so this season’s contest lacks a horse rated higher than 164. Therefore if that class angle trend is to be beaten, then this looks as good a year for that to happen as any. It is not at all surprising that the four most prestigious two-mile chases, the Champion Chase, Tingle Creek, Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase and the Clarence House, have featured in the campaigns of plenty of contenders for this Grade 1 prize with the BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase proving to be top dog as you might expect featuring nine of the last 11 winners. Module would have beaten Somersby for second place in a couple more strides at Cheltenham as was the case in the Haldon Gold Cup so there is very little between the two British-trained raiders. The Brits have a decent record since this became a level-weights Grade 1 winning it six times in addition to Big Matt winning the 1998 running when it was Grade 1 handicap and Viking Flagship took the 1993 edition as a novice. Sizing Europe was 3¼ lengths back in fourth in the Champion Chase and Baily Green fell four out when going okay. Five of the last nine Tingle Creek Chase winners have triumphed here but as there is no Sire De Grugy, the runner-up, Somersby, represents that Sandown form. Two starts later Sire De Grugy put up an even better performance when destroying the subsequent Ryanair Chase second, Hidden Cyclone, by 11 lengths in the Clarence House Chase so, on that form, Hidden Cyclone has something to find and the runner-up’s trainer stated afterwards that he is better left-handed so that is not ideal for Punchestown. Three winners in the last six years finished first or second in that Ascot Grade 1 prize (though it was postponed to Cheltenham when Sprinter Sacre won). The leading Irish guide featuring four of the last ten winners is the Paddy Power Dial-a-Bet Chase where Hidden Cyclone split the retired pair of Benefficient and Arvika Ligeonneire. The Kinloch Brae Chase, run over 2m4f at Thurles in late January, has thrown up two winners in the last decade and this season’s runner-up, Baily Green, might be interesting here having split Texas Jack and Last Instalment with many feeling 2m is still his best trip. The only three winners since 1992 aged older than nine were all ten-year-olds that won the previous season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase and their class was enough to see them through. No previous non-Champion Chase winner has won aged over the age of nine which is against the 12-year-old Sizing Europe who has form figures of 212 in this race and the ten-year-old, Somersby. French-bred horses have won five of the last seven runnings and they are three-handed this season with Module, Twinlight and Turban. Prominently-ridden horses that have won 13 of the last 15 renewals Short List Module (Baily Green) (Somersby) Conclusion Module fits most trends being a French-bred who contested the Champion Chase, and ran very well at that, and is one of two British-trained raiders in a race where they have fared well in so he tops the list. Personally, I think he is better over further than two miles so the faster they go, the better his chance. Baily Green was going well enough when he exited at Cheltenham and then set it up for the mud-loving Bog Warrior on his next start over 2m4f on heavy ground when kicking ten lengths clear down the back straight making it a test of stamina so it was no surprise he was worn down giving away weight to a horse with 3m form. Back to 2m on better ground, the only slightly off-putting factor is his lack of Grade 1 or Grade 2 success but this is not an up-to-scratch renewal and he has won three Grade 3 races and there is no real difference between Grade 2 and Grade 3 races in Irish chases in my opinion. Hidden Cyclone is not my kind of ante-post favourite as he doesn’t fit many trends and may be better left-handed so even if he is older than ideal, Somersby gets the final berth having run well in the two best guides, being British-trained and, despite his lack of big-race wins for one with his talent, he is certainly a proven Grade 1 horse in not the strongest renewal. Also very interesting that McCoy takes over on Somersby from Dominic Elsworth for the first time since 2009. 6:05 Goffs Land Rover Bumper The first of two bumpers today (and six at the meeting all told), this is restricted to horses bought at Goffs in June last year so few have run, just five of the 20 in fact, but with 100,000 euros up for grabs, it should produce a good horse or two. Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight runnings (but are responsible for 16 of the 20 runners this time) and Willie Mullins has won three of the last eight and he relies on Very Much So, a four-year-old making his debut. Interesting that Jonjo O’Neill sends over Ustica who made a winning debut at 20/1 at Newcastle last month where he showed a real good turn of foot. Jessica and Katie Harrington combined to win this race in 2009 and they are represented by Gimli’s Voyage who only beat one home on debut at Limerick so perhaps the other horse to consider with a run under its belt is Just Get Cracking who was second in just a six-runner bumper at the same course. Of the 15 unraced horses, in addition to Very Much So, others likely to attract support are Nicky Henderson’s Native Display with Patrick Mullins booked rather than him being aboard his father’s representative, Tony Martin’s dreadfully-named Whatsforuwontgobyu, Caleb Coomer for John Kiely who has a real touch with bumper horses, Exxaro who is by Presenting for Henry De Bromnhead and top owner Alan Potts, Mags Mullins’ Burton Hall in the colours of Barry Connell and Noel Meade’s Snow Falcon who wears a hood and appears to be the number one with Nina Carberry booked with Katie Walsh on Russian Bill. Short List Ustica Native Display Burton Hall Very Much So Conclusion Absolute guesswork but the booking of Patrick Mullins for Nicky Henderson aboard Native Display has to be interesting as Willie Mullins has won this bumper three times recently and has a representative in Very Much So. Given the stable’s record of three wins in eight years he therefore has to make the short list. Burton Hall represents a top owner for a yard that does well in bumpers so he might be worth checking out in the market but the percentage play would be Ustica who has already won well showing a good turn of foot when not expected to win striking at 20/1 and although it is a valuable pot, Jonjo O’Neill doesn’t often send over young hoses to this meeting. 6:40 Growise Champion Novice Chase The Punchestown Festival equivalent of the RSA Chase first run in 1992 and won by the Martin Pipe-trained nine-year-old, Milford Quay, who was the first of five British-trained winners but they are unrepresented this season. However, it was upgraded from a Grade 2 2m5f event to a Grade 1 3m1f race in 2007 so just there are seven runnings to work off in reality so strong patterns are thin on the ground at present. Sir Des Champs became the first successful favourite two years ago since the race took on a new look when outclassing his field at odds of 2/7 having won what is now the JLT Novices’ Chase on his previous start so he was giving Gigginstown House Stud successive wins in the race following on from Quito De La Roque 12 months earlier and their maroon-and-white silks only found one too good last season when the NH Chase runner-up, Tofino Bay, was the bridesmaid again behind Mount Benbulben. Gigginstown are represented this season by the Grade 1 Drinmore winner and Mildmay Novices’ Chase runner-up, Don Cossack, who fell in the RSA plus Mozoltov who unseated his rider in the Powers Gold Cup nine days ago and fell in the JLT but has won three small chases and finished third in the Irish Arkle. A big run at Cheltenham Festival can take too much out of a novice, it certainly did for the RSA Chase winner, Cooldine, who had the look of a horse that had not come close to recovering from those Festival exertions when beaten here five years ago and last year’s defeated favourite, Back In Focus, was also below par back in fourth having won the NH Chase on his previous start. As such, this race has so far had an end-of-season feel to it which has resulted in four relatively-surprising winners at 7/1, 9/1, 16/1 and 14/1 in smallish-field events in the seven years since it became a Grade 1 event. The best Cheltenham Festival form is that of Morning Assembly who was third in the RSA Chase one place ahead of Ballycasey in fourth and a poor-jumping Carlingford Lough who was sixth after being well backed (Don Cossack fell six put when the pace started to quicken). Since then Ballycasey has fallen when leading two out in the Powers Gold Cup nine days ago (three of the last five winners ran at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting, two finished unplaced in the Powers Gold Cup) but Walsh prefers another last-time-out faller in Djakadam who came to grief in the JLT Novices’ Chase probably as he receives a hefty 9lb weight-for-age allowance which he didn’t get at Cheltenham. You would have to think that allowance was a big factor in Walsh selecting Djakadam over a proven Grade 1 winner over 2m5f in Ballycasey in addition to the potential improvement this five-year-old may find over 3m1f whereas Ballycasey shaped like 3m stretched him in the RSA and this is 3m1f. The first three winners since the elevation to a Grade 1 had all won at least three times over fences and also over at least three miles as had Quito De La Roque three years ago. However, only Mozoltov has three chase wins to his name but he has yet to win over 3m+ which I would argue is the stronger of those two stats and which is also against Djakadam, Ballycasey and Don Cossack. Then again, two of the three winners that had not won over 3m+ were both trained by Willie Mullins who trains the first-named pair. Short List Morning Assembly Djakadam Conclusion A hard race to come up with a short list using purely trends as this is a different race of late but the RSA Chase third Morning Assembly has the least question marks as we know he stays well which is likely to be a big factor having won the 3m Grade 1 novice hurdle at this meeting last season and we know he loves Punchestown having won four times here in five starts. The ground might have been a little livelier than ideal at Cheltenham for him so any more cut would increase his chances. I would prefer Djakadam to Ballycasey and Mozoltov of the Mullins runners as I doubt the latter is good enough and I question whether Ballycasey stays this far on two pieces of form. Walsh seemingly also has his doubts as he rides Djakadam who receives a very tasty 9lb here (only received 1lb weight for age allowance when he fell in the JLT) but his stamina must be taken on trust. Then again, Mullins doesn’t like to run his staying novices over 3m until the day that matters and he has won this race twice with novice trying 3m+ for the first time. I remain unconvinced that Don Cossack has what it takes or stays well enough and it would appear the second-season novice Carlingford Lough has now been caught up with and passed by more talented horses so he has lost his experience edge. 7:15 Finlay Motor Group Bumper A bit more form to go on in this bumper for four-year-olds who are maidens under Rules than the bumper earlier on the card but not much as 12 of the 19 runners are unraced. Last year’s winner was Very Wood who went on to win this season’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival for Noel Meade but he entered this race having won a point-to-point when trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by Jane Mangan. Elliott is represented this time by the debutant Alamein for the same owner (Gigginstown) with Nina Carberry booked with Mangan riding Bell Of The Ball on which she was second for another owner/trainer at Wexford 18 days ago. That might just be the best form of the race but there is not a lot in it as Ange D’Or Javilex has twice placed third for Philip Fenton (also runs a debutant called Akito) and four others have also placed. On balance, however, I would prefer to take a chance on one of the debutants being above average and Forgotten Rules is surely going to be very popular for Dermot Weld and Robbie McNamara in the colours of Moyglare Stud far better known for Group 1 winners on the Flat. The Aga Khan-bred Hasanour for Mick Halford and Katie Walsh is another debutant worth checking in the market and Paul Nolan caused a 25/1 upset when winning this race three years ago and is represented by Fine Theatre. Short List Forgotten Rules Hasanour Alamein Conclusion Those with form, of which Bell Of The Ball appeals most, look beatable, so if I wanted to get involved I would prefer to look at Dermot Weld’s Forgotten Rules for Moyglare Stud who is sure to be popular. Maybe too popular in which instance Hasanour might be a better value each-way alternative as being Aga Khan-bred, he is bred for the Flat (his dam was a dual Listed race winner at the Curragh) so he might be a more than useful bumper horse. Alamein represents last season’s successful owner-trainer combination so is another to consider.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Tom Segal's tips for day 1 of Punchestown 4.55 Punchestown The Game Changer 16/1 4.55 Punchestown Sea Beat 11/1 5.30 Punchestown Ballynagour 11/1

[National Hunt Racing > Monday April 21st]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Monday April 21st 5:00 Fairyhouse – Irish Grand National This looks a typically competitive renewal, but there is one horse in this that I have been thinking could be perfect for the race, so I have got to go for it and that is TOUCH THE EDEN. He looks a real stayer and enters the race in top form, having won his last two starts. The ground has come in his favour also and on his only start at Fairyhouse, he ran a blinder on his chase debut to finish under a length behind Foxrock (subsequent winner of two Grade Two chases) over an inadequate trip. He looks to be improving and could be well handicapped for a challenge that could be perfect for him. He is a novice, so jumping is an obvious concern, but he has looked solid so far, and his low handicap mark is the return we get for him not having too much chasing experience.