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beaker1

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    cheltenham preview evening reports 2014

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    Re: cheltenham preview evening reports 2014 sent to via a friend: London on Wednesday 25 February. On the panel: DJ: DARYL JACOB (Jockey) GC: GRAHAM CUNNINGHAM (Channel 4 Racing) BE: BILL ESDAILE (City AM Racing Editor) LT: LUKE TARR (Head of PR, Star Sports) Tuesday 11 March SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE GC and DJ both keen on VAUTOUR BE sweet on WILDE BLUE YONDER at a decent price Panel agreed that IRVING is now plenty short enough. ARKLE CHASE LT and GC both supporters of TRIFOLIUM The panel were collectively against ROCK ON RUBY DJ keen on his ride DODGING BULLETS CHAMPION HURDLE Star Sports prices showed THE NEW ONE and HURRICANE FLY as 3/1 joint favs with MY TENT OR YOURS and OUR CONOR as the 9/2 joint second favs. Both GC and LT both thought the betting was the wrong way round and the 9/2 joint second favs should in fact be the 3/1 joint favs ! Selections: DJ HURRICANE FLY GC OUR CONOR LT MY TENT OR YOURS BE HURRICANE FLY GC was of the belief that ANNIE POWER would in fact run here in the Champion Hurdle to which LT added that she would be 9/2 not the current 7/1 if that was confirmed. Wednesday 12 March NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE The panel were all agreed that this totally revolves around the front two in the market FAUGHEEN and RED SHERLOCK especially as there are likely to be several non runners behind them. The panel were united behind the chances of FAUGHEEN. RSA CHASE BE was keen to remind everyone that he is on a 5 timer in this race !! MORNING ASSEMBLY is Bill’s chosen one this year. All the panel though the current market leaders BALLYCASEY and SMAD PLACE were very short. LT and GC nominated MANY CLOUDS as their best each way bets of the week. DJ SAM WINNER a sound each way chance and ‘overpriced’ at 14/1 QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE The panel agreed that whilst SIRE DE GRUGY deserved to be favourite the current price is skinny. GC however was quite happy with 5/2 SIRE DE GRUGY as a bet. All also agreed that ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE is not only the hardest horse name in training to spell correctly but also doesn’t go left handed and were sceptical as to whether the promised ‘special’ head gear will make a difference and thought it was a massive lay. CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE DJ rides DIAMOND HARRY and thought it had an each way chance. LT and GC both respected chances of favourite BIG SHU and if anything thought it should be shorter. FRED WINTER HANDICAP HURDLE It was thought that DAWALAN would go off a lot shorter than the current 10/1 Thursday 13 March JLT NOVICE CHASE DJ closely connected with WONDERFUL CHARM who he is keen on. LT Thought OSCAR WHISKEY and TAQUIN DU SEUIL would be 1-2 again as they were earlier in the season. GC a fan of WONDERFUL CHARM and also VUKOVAR who has been well backed with Star Sports. BE FELIX YONGER So, that’s the top of the market covered between the panel !! May the best man win. RYANAIR CHASE LT main bet of the week AL FEROF at 5/1. He’s convinced it won’t go off bigger than 3/1. DJ aother AL FEROF supporter. Only other one likely to be backed is GC selection DYNASTE BE Keen on FIRST LIEUTENANT (with a run) WORLD HURDLE DJ obviously close to BIG BUCK’S and feels he has come on lot after his defeat in the Cleeve Hurdle. He rides CELESTIAL HALO who he considers very much has each way claims. GC keen to be against BIG BUCK’S BE One of his ‘bets of the week’ RULE THE WORLD LT No idea !! But SALUBRIOUS ew at 20/1 offered up. Friday 14 March TRIUMPH HURDLE The panel were all keen on CALIPTO DJ Thinks LE ROCHER wants ground on the soft side A strong vibe that ACTIVIAL will not run. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICE HURDLE Similar shape to the Neptune. Front two solid with loads of non runners likely. LT and BE are big KINGS PALACE fans GC favouring BRIAR HILL GOLD CUP Majority opinion it’s between top two in market- the 2013 winner BOBS WORTH and SILVINIACO CONTI who fell 12 months ago when still travelling very well. DJ in doubt – would pick SILVINIACO CONTI ‘every day of the week’ if he could pick a ride. He DOES ride ROCKY CREEK and he is convinced he has a real ew chance with the likely non runners. GC BOBS WORTH LT and BE FIRST LIEUTENANT NRNB interesting but conceded most likely winner is BOBS WORTH COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE DJ rides LAC FONTANA who he puts in good word for. FOXHUNTER CHASE GC ON THE FRINGE BETS OF THE WEEK DARYL JACOB NAP: AL FEROF BEST EW: LAC FONTANA GRAHAM CUNNINGHAM NAP: TRIFOLIUM BEST EW: MANY COLOURS LUKE TARR NAP: AL FEROF BEST EW: MANY CLOUDS BILL ESDAILE * NAP: RULE THE WORLD BEST EW: FIRST LIEUTENANT

    Tuesday 3:20 > Champion Hurdle

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    Re: Tuesday 3:20 > Champion Hurdle a stronger pace,stiffer course and being ridden more positively are factors expected to suit him better than for his last two runs but at the end of the day he was beaten in the best three races hes contested and this is a super hot renewal,he also wasnt good enought in last seasons supreme or the ryanair hurdle at christmas

    Racing Chat Thread

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    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread [h=1]Crisford resigns as racing manager of Godolphin[/h] SIMON Crisford has resigned as racing manager of Godolphin. His shock departure comes less than a fortnight after the publication of a report by Lord Stevens, which was critical of Godolphin and other parts of Sheikh Mohammed's equine operations but concluded that Mahmood Al Zarooni acted alone in the doping scandal that engulfed the stable last year. Crisford, one of the most widely respected figures in British racing, said on Monday night: "Having dealt with the events of last year and seen the Lord Stevens inquiry through to its conclusion, I thought that this was a good moment to bring my time at Godolphin to a close. "I had felt for a while that I would like a fresh challenge. I think the time is right for a new start for the stable and for me. Sheikh Mohammed has asked me to take on a new role as his global racing adviser. I am delighted to have accepted that position and I am very much looking forward to what will be an exciting new chapter for me." taken from racing post

    Wednesday 5:15 > Champion Bumper

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    Re: Wednesday 5:15 > Champion Bumper I like BLACK HERCULES and recommend a 1 point win bet at his top price now as I fancy Patrick Mullins may select him over Shaneshill given that he eulogies about him and also bought him for Graham Wylie (who also owns Shaneshill) so I see him shortening as a consequence. The main reason I am backing him however (aside from his stable having won this race eight times!) is not only was Black Hercules the easiest on the eye winner of a bumper winner I have seen this season when winning at Thurles, but they were also no mugs he was beating up on that occasion so it is smart form too. However, it is his collateral form that really catches the eye as his previous victory saw him beat Cillian’s Return also looks potentially top class now as he then easily beat Vigil (since when J P McManus has since got his cheque book out and purchased Cillian’s Return) and then Vigil bolted up in the always-warm bumper at Leopardstown on Irish Hennessy Day. If Patrick Mullins picks Shaneshill, then hands up, I’ve probably got it wrong but it wouldn’t be disaster as a certain Ruby Walsh would then come in for the ride and he won last year’s race on the stable’s supposed third string, Briar Hill. Dermot Weld has three smart bumper horses, all of which won at Leopardstown last time out but Windsor Park was ruled out at the weekend with a setback and it looks like Vigil will be kept back for Punchestown so Silver Concorde might be his only runner.

    cheltenham preview evening reports 2014

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    Re: cheltenham preview evening reports 2014 Tweets via @trevcummins Under starters orders here in The Stables, Carrigaline for Cheltenham Preview. Panel Andrew Lynch - Jockey Paul Nolan - Trainer Jimmy Mangan - Trainer Kevin O'Ryan - Jockeys Agent / ATR Champion Hurdle Jimmy Mangan with the first of many pearls of wisdom, "Leopardstown and Cheltenham are two different places", glad that's been cleared up. Paul Nolan on The Fly, "greatest hurdler of all time, will have statues built in his honour" TheFly Champion Champion Chase Jimmy Mangan had BJ Geraghty on the blower earlier, the Sprinter is said to be working like a beast at home! Andrew Lynch says Sizing Europe still has it in him to go + win the Champion Chase, worked well up the Old Vic this morning Gold Cup Panel agreed on Last Installment posing biggest threat to Bobs Worths Gold Cup double bid#Cheltenham Other Races Jimmy Mangan, breeder of Deputy Dan, not sure Oliver Sherwoods star will have enough to beat the Irish contenders in the Neptune Cheltenham Davy Russel, absent from the panel, asks to have it made known, Morning Assembly in the RSA may be his best chance of a winner. Cheltenham Andrew Lynch reckons Hidden Cyclone represents value in the Ryanair Cheltenham Paul Nolan speaking today to Gordon Elliott who reckons Tiger Roll in the Triumph is his best chance at Cheltenham Tips/Charity Bets Charity Bets in Aid Of Irish injured Jockeys Fund Andrew Lynch Sizing Gold-JLT Novices Chase #Cheltenham Paul Nolan - The Tullow Tank - Neptune #Cheltenham Jimmy Mangan-Oscar Delta e/w-Foxhunter Chase + Hurricane Fly-Champion Hurdle Kevin O'Ryan-Ted Veale e/w-Grand Annual.

    cheltenham preview evening reports 2014

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    Full report of Cheltenham Festival preview evening at Exeter Racecourse - febuary 21st 2014 Tonight saw the annual Cheltenham preview evening at Exeter Racecourse with guests including trainers Paul Nicholls, David Pipe and Phillip Hobbs, jockey Nick Scholfield and Racing Post reporter Andrew King. TUESDAY SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE. Andrew King: Vautour is a very smart house who comes into race well. Irving has done little wrong and I think at the moment is each way value. Paul Nicholls: (on Irving) I hope he can win. He is four from six on the flat and three from three in jumps and is in good shape. A fast run race would suit him better. Nick Scholfield: The horse with the best English form is Irving, who has done nothing wrong. The horse is better on better ground but has won on soft ground before. David Pipe: (on The Liquidator) He is back on good form. You could call him the forgotten horse. He has had one bad run but was vying for favouritism before that. If we can get him back to his best he will have a chance. Wicklow Brave needs to brush up on his jumping and I have a sneaky feeling the top two (Irving and Vautour) will take all the beating. Phillip Hobbs: Vautour looks very good but Irving offers better each way value. ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY: Paul Nicholls: Hinterland would like to see it dry out. He is still in the Champion Chase and we will see what the ground does. But Hinterland and Dodging Bullets are both in good order. I am thrilled with Dodging Bullets. Andrew King: I think Rock on Ruby has a sound chance if the ground dries out. Nick Schofield: Champagne Fever is much better if he gets an easy lead. If he gets taken on that might let him down. I have been impressed by Valdez and he might offer good each way value. David Pipe: I think Champagne Fever will take all the beating. Valdez gave a good performance at Doncaster, can travel and has an each way chance but Champagne Fever is the one for me. Phillip Hobbs: Champagne Fever has won twice previously at the festival and can come back and do it again. CHAMPION HURDLE Andrew King: The obvious is Hurricane Fly but I have always thought the Our Connor has been trained with one race only in mind and will be better than ever on faster ground if it dries out. I don’t think My Tent Or Yours or The New One is good enough to compete with these. If Annie Power shows up that could change everything but for me it is Hurricane Fly or Our Connor. David Pipe: Even though Hurricane Fly is not getting any younger, I am not convinced My Tent Or Yours will get up the hill so I will go with Hurricane Fly. Nick Schofield: (On Melodic Rendezvous) He has no pressure going into the race and deserves his chance. It will be a very tactical race with no real pace. Phillip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls both said The New One had a decent chance. WEDNESDAY NEPTUNE NOVICES’ HURDLE David Pipe: I have been very impressed with Faugheen. But Red Sherlock has done nothing wrong and will run a massive race. The betting is right and Faugheen is the one to beat. (On Un Temps Pour Tout) Whichever race he goes in he will have a good chance. Phillip Hobbs: Champagne West is only in the Neptune if the ground comes up heavy. Paul Nicholls: We will probably aim Port Melon at the three miler. Andrew King: I have been very impressed with Red Sherlock in his bumpers and hurdles so far and he will take all the beating. He has a massive chance in this race and is going to be a top class horse. RSA CHASE David Pipe: It looks an open RSA if not the best. But it is not easy. I might still be taking a chance with Gevrey Chambertin. He is a good horse on his day and I am inclined to take the chance. Paul Nicholls: Sam Winner can reverse the form with Smad Place and better ground will suit. The quicker they go the better and he has got a great chance. Nick Scholfield: There is not much between Sam Winner and Smad Place but SW is a much bigger price. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE: David Pipe: Sprinter Sacre is a concern but hopefully they have had time to put him right. The race is all around this house but I would expect him to get him back and probably win. Phillip Hobbs: Sprinter Sacre is a fantastic horse if he is right. Sire De Grugy is in decent form but I cannot see him beating Sprinter Sacre if he turns up. Andrew King: I am very interested in Benefficient. He is a very nice horse and if Sprinter Sacre does not run I think they might try him in this. Personally I don’t think Sprinter Sacre will get there. Paul Nicholls I think Nicky is sounding a bit negative with Sprinter Sacre saying they will make a decision in the next ten days. They won’t really know until they race him though. It just seemed a little negative. If he is back in good form we might take him on with Hinterland. If he turned up we might be positive and have a crack with him. THURSDAY: JLT NOVICES’ CHASE (FORMERLY JEWSON) Paul Nicholls: Wonderful Charm goes well fresh and was three from four over fences in the Autumn. He is in good shape but would not want the ground too soft. Vukovar is a decent horse but Wonderful Charm has shown enough to be the one to beat. Nick Scholfield also liked Wonderful Charm: If he gets ground he will be very hard to beat. David Pipe: Vukovar is the one I will go for in that race. Andrew King: Taquin Du Seuil has a good each way chance. He will stay on up the hill. RYANAIR CHASE David Pipe: If Sprinter Sacre does not turn up for the Champion Chase it will take a lot of horses away from the Ryanair. With Dynaste we are keeping the options open. He has not been right for a long time but is in great form at present. If he continues we will get him to Cheltenham in top form. We will leave it late to see what happens with Sprinter Sacre and the ground. Paul Nicholls: The Ryanair for Al Ferof was always my A-plan. He ran very well in the King George but does not stay. This is the obvious race for him and the ideal race for him. Wishfull Thinking could be the one to beat. I would run Cue Card in the Ryanair. He is not going to get three and a half miles at Cheltenham in an end to end gallop in the Gold Cup. If he is in the Ryanair he is a favourite and hard to beat. Phillip Hobbs said: I am more likely to run Menorah. Wishfull Thinking might end up in the Byrne Group Plate. Cue Card has a big chance in the Ryanair but won’t win the Gold Cup. Andrew King: Dynaste. WORLD HURDLE Paul Nicholls: Big Bucks has got as good a chance as any other time he has been in the race. He needed his previous run and it was on very heavy ground that we would not normally run him in. But we had to go somewhere with him and he has tightened up since then. He must have a leading chance. Phillip Hobbs: Big Bucks has been a fantastic horse for so long and must have a good chance. Andrew King: I had reservations about his comeback run. But seeing the way he was today (in a racecourse gallop at Exeter) he looked back to his best and will take all the beating. He looked a picture and still got such quality. David Pipe: I hope Annie Power does turn up as it will make it a great race for everyone to watch. FRIDAY: JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE Paul Nicholls: I am confident of a big run from Calipto but he prefers softer ground. ALBERT BARTLETT David Pipe: King’s Palace has done nothing wrong, handles the track, stays well and is in ground form. All roads lead to the Albert Bartlett. Briar Hill is the main danger but I don’t fancy Captain Cutter. Andrew King: Kings Palace is a very nice young horse and is the obvious choice in the race. He is got to go close but I would not take 3/1. GOLD CUP Paul Nicholls: Silviniaco Conti is stronger than last year and stays as we saw at Kempton. He was travelling extremely well and I have never had any doubt he can stay up that hill. He will need a bit of luck in running but is in very good shape. Phillip Hobbs: Captain Chris will run. That is the plan. He is not as good left handed but has won the Arkle and a novice hurdle at Cheltenham. There is no other race to run him in. We have nothing to lose by running. David Pipe: It looks a strong renewal and Bob’s Worth will take all the beating. He is not flashy but is workmanlike. Silviniaco Conti has got a great chance but Bob’s Worth will take all the beating, Nick Scholfield: Silviniaco Conti looked really fresh and well today (in the Exeter gallop) and Noel struggled to hold him. Harry Topper could be a good each way bet. At 20/1 he may run into a place. Andrew King: Silviniaco Conti is one of the best bets of the meeting. Handicap choices Phillip Hobbs: Fingal Bay in the Pertemps. Paul Nicholls: Far West in the Coral Cup David Pipe: Edmund Kean in the Kim Muir. Nick Scholfield: Regal Encore in the Coral Cup. Andrew King: Cheltenian in the County Hurdle.

    National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 22nd

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    Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 22nd 2:40 Kempton – BetBright Mobile Pendil Novices’ Chase BALDER SUCCES has really impressed me this season and I can see Kempton playing to his strengths as he jumps so well at speed. He has gained plenty of experience over fences, having raced five times. His win last time out at Warwick really caught the eye and I expect him to be hard to beat. Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race and Dark Lover is respected, but I feel the main danger will be Fox Appeal who looked good when winning at Ascot. Emma Lavelle had been struggling for form over the last few weeks, but had a winner at Huntingdon yesterday and he rates the main danger to me. 3:50 Kempton – BetBright Chase TOUR DES CHAMPS is a fascinating runner here. As a novice he really impressed on his chase debut, winning easily at Uttoxeter and also won really well at Ludlow on soft ground. One of his most notable performances was when he was in the process of running a big race behind Rocky Creek at Warwick, when he was conceding three pounds and still had every chance when falling two out. Next time out he won easily at Ffos Las before finishing third to Rocky Creek at Ascot. First time out this season he ran a solid race to finish second to Balthazar King at Cheltenham off a mark of 133 and although he has run below form since, he has had a break and could easily bounce back to form. He has a rating of just 127 in this and when you compare that to the 157 that Rocky Creek has, you can see he has been given a chance. He gets in right at the bottom of the weights and this tight right handed track should really suit. It could also be significant that he is wearing a first time visor and that the Twiston-Davies stable is in red hot form having had four winners in the last two days from just six runners. Standing Ovation could prove the biggest danger. He was a horse going places earlier in the season, winning four in a row and having had a winter break I can see him running well again. All his wins have been on right-handed tracks which could be significant and Kempton could really suit him. He jumps and stays and on testing ground, could have a major say in the outcome of this race, with his usual jockey in the saddle.

    National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 15th

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    Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 15th 2:05 Ascot – RSA Trial Novices’ Chase Some good horses have won this in the past and MANY CLOUDS is fancied to join the roll of honour. Proven in heavy ground, he looked good on his chase debut, easily beating Knock A Hand who won at Leicester yesterday, prior to running well behind Black Thunder ay Haydock. Last time out he easily beat Indian Castle at Wetherby who went on to win well at Cheltenham, so the form looks solid. O’Faolains Boy is an interesting opponent as he looked a natural on his chasing debut at Ascot, finishing second to the useful Easter Day and this step up in trip looks sure to suit. He ran badly last time, but his stable was out of form at the time and Rebecca Curtis has her string in much better form now. As a result he may go off at a fair price and interests me with a view to doing a reverse forecast with Many Clouds . 3:35 Wincanton – Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle ZARKANDAR faces a stiff opponent in Melodic Rendezvous, but with blinkers back on; I can see him being hard to beat. He has class form to his name and impressed on heavy ground in this race last year. He has a 100% record at the track, having also impressed when winning the Elite Hurdle and is rated eight pounds superior to his main market rival. He has finished second all three starts this season, but the horses that beat him were Annie Power and The New One who are both class acts, so he should find things easier here. 3:50 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase CAPTAIN CHRIS has a great record going right-handed and handles testing ground well, so has plenty in his favour. In his two runs at Ascot, he won easily on heavy ground in a Grade Two contest prior to running well behind Cue Card in this last year, where baring a bad mistake, he would have finished close up to a very talented horse that has done so well since. Last time out he really impressed on soft ground at Kempton, so comes in to the race in good form and should be hard to beat. The main danger is Riverside Theatre who beat the selection at Huntingdon earlier this season, but he received ten pounds that day and has always gone well fresh, whereas Captain Chris has improved for the run. He too loves Ascot, but heavy ground is much more of a concern for him as he has gone so well on good ground in the past. Rolling Aces however put up a strong performance on soft ground at Down Royal earlier this season and is improving. I feel the race will suit him and I can see him following Captain Chris home so the straight forecast of Captain Chris to beat Rolling Aces makes plenty of appeal to me.

    Wednesday 3:20 > Queen Mother Champion Chase

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    Re: Wednesday 3:20 > Queen Mother Champion Chase QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2014 - [ thanks to r/caller for use of these trends ] The highlight of the second day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Bet Victor Queen Mother Champion Chase. Sprinter Sacre’s very impressive 19 length success last year gave Nicky Henderson a second straight winner in this race. It is still unclear whether Sprinter Sacre will be able to defend his title. Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 8 or 9 - Won a graded chase on last completed outing - Posted an RPR of 165+ last time out - Run 2 to 4 times this season - Run 7 to 13 times over fences (or a previous Champion Chase winner) - 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or previous Champion Chase winner) - Won over at least 2M 1F - Previously won a grade 1 - Course winner (or having first course run) - Won the Arkle or ran in Champion Chase at 2013 Festival - Finished in the first 4 in the Tingle Creek - Ran in Game Spirit, Victor Chandler or Tied Cottage Chase last time - Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.

    Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle

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    Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2014 - [ thanks to r/caller for use of these trends ] The Neptune Investments Management Novices’ Hurdle is run over 2M 5F and is generally chosen for novice hurdlers with more stamina than those who go for the Supreme Novices’. As with every other year there are plenty of horses with dual entries making ante post betting in this race a treacherous proposition. Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 5 or 6 - NH bred (or won class 1 race on the flat). - French or Irish bred gelding - Posted an RPR of 145+ last time - Run in 3 to 6 hurdles this season (winning at least 2) - Finished 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle runs this season - Finished in the first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 - Won a hurdles race over 2M 4F or further - Won the Navan, Slaney and/or Leamington Novice Hurdle - Finished in first 3 in Classic and/or Winter Novices’ Hurdle - From the first 5 in the betting (8/1 or shorter) - Trained in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins) or by Nigel Twiston-Davies.

    Tuesday 3:20 > Champion Hurdle

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    Re: Tuesday 3:20 > Champion Hurdle CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2014 - [ thanks to r/caller for use of these trends ] The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s 4 day Festival, which kicks off on the 11th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998 ten winners have come from Ireland and last year Hurricane Fly became only the second horse ever to regain the title after winning it in 2011. He now looks to follow in the footsteps of the great, Sea Pigeon, and become only the second horse in last 50 years to win this aged older than 9. Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Gelding aged 6 to 9 - Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2) - Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out - Run 2 to 5 times this season - 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2013 Champion Hurdle - Finished in first 3 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners - Previously won a grade 1 hurdle - Finished in first 3 in 2013 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2013 Festival - Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle - Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle - British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth and/or Christmas Hurdle - Ran in Kingwell, Contenders, Red Mills Trial or Irish Champion Hurdle last time - Trained by Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.

    Tuesday 2:05 > Arkle Chase

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    Re: Tuesday 2:05 > Arkle Chase ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY TRENDS 2014 - [ thanks to r/caller for use of these trends ] The second race on day 1 is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers since 2000 including 4 subsequent Champion Chase winners – Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup, Voy Por Ustedes & Voy Por Ustedes. Irish trainers appear to hold a strong hand in the race this year while the record of Paul Nicholls has been surprisingly poor in the Arkle in recent years. Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - French bred aged 5 or 6, or Irish/British bred aged 7 - Run in 2 to 5 chases this season - Never finished out of the first 2 over fences - Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts - Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase - Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle - Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles - Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or having first start here) - Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2013 Cheltenham Festival (ideally in a novice h’dl) - Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree Festival 2013 - Trained by Alan King or Nicky Henderson - Respect Irish runners that finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase - From the first 5 in the betting (no bigger than 9/1).

    Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle

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    Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014 - [ thanks to r/caller for use of these trends ] The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 11th March with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 9 of the last 15 winners being trained in Ireland. Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Won last time out in the past 55 days - Posted an RPR of 137+ last time - Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts - Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles - Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle - Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat - Finished in first 5 in 2013 Champion Bumper - Deloitte Novice Hurdle winners do well - Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.

    National Hunt Racing Sunday 9th February

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    Re: National Hunt Racing Sunday 9th February 3:50 Leopardstown – Irish Hennessy Gold Cup Seven have been declared, but this looks more competitive than the market suggests. First Lieutenant is the one to beat on the back of his fine second in the Lexus over Christmas. He is a class act and has proved consistent at a high level, but the fact is that he has been beaten both times he has taken on ROI DU MEE this season and at 20/1 that horse looks excellent value. He loves testing ground and can go out and make the running and as most other horses are held up, he could have an easy lead. Last Instalment is a horse that I have a lot of time for and he loves Leopardstown, but his trainer is struggling for form at present and has stated the he will need the run still after his long layoff. Roi Du Mee’s win at Down Royal on testing ground has been played down, but it was classy form and he only has a few pounds to make up on the top rated pair in this, so there is no way that he should be 20/1.

    National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 8th

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    Posted

    Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 8th

    2:25 Newbury – Betfair Denman Chase HARRY TOPPER loves soft ground and with a small field also in his favour can edge out Al Ferof in what could be a great race. As a novice he beat the useful Rocky Creek at Exeter and then followed up with a good win over this course and distance when beating Benefficient, who went on to Cheltenham Festival glory. He may not be the best jumper around, but on a course like Newbury he should be able to get into a rhythm and in a race with a history of shocks, can turn over the favourite. First time out this season he did really well to win the Charlie Hall and last time stayed on strongly to finish just behind Rocky Creek at Cheltenham despite conceding him weight. He is talented on his day and I expect him to run a big race. 2:40 Warwick – Kingmaker Novices’ Chase BALDER SUCCES was a classy hurdler and has taken well to fences. After showing a good attitude to win on his chase debut, he was unlucky not to follow up at Cheltenham where he fell two out having the race in the bag. On his next start he really impressed at Warwick, so has proved he handles this track and as I feel he is one of the top novice chasers around, I can’t oppose him here, with the Alan King team returning to form.
    happy with that both won

    National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 8th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 8th 2:25 Newbury – Betfair Denman Chase HARRY TOPPER loves soft ground and with a small field also in his favour can edge out Al Ferof in what could be a great race. As a novice he beat the useful Rocky Creek at Exeter and then followed up with a good win over this course and distance when beating Benefficient, who went on to Cheltenham Festival glory. He may not be the best jumper around, but on a course like Newbury he should be able to get into a rhythm and in a race with a history of shocks, can turn over the favourite. First time out this season he did really well to win the Charlie Hall and last time stayed on strongly to finish just behind Rocky Creek at Cheltenham despite conceding him weight. He is talented on his day and I expect him to run a big race. 2:40 Warwick – Kingmaker Novices’ Chase BALDER SUCCES was a classy hurdler and has taken well to fences. After showing a good attitude to win on his chase debut, he was unlucky not to follow up at Cheltenham where he fell two out having the race in the bag. On his next start he really impressed at Warwick, so has proved he handles this track and as I feel he is one of the top novice chasers around, I can’t oppose him here, with the Alan King team returning to form.

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