[Flat Racing - Friday 2nd of August (Goodwood Day 4)]

Re: Flat Racing - Friday 2nd of August (Goodwood Day 4) 1.55 Coutts Glorious Stakes (Group 3) Godolphin’s Charlie Appleby saddles an interesting recruit here to begin day four, in the four-year-old colt Masterstroke. He was a Listed winner in France over 1m4f before defeating Gatewood in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville over a furlong further. He perhaps turned in his best performance in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last year, when he finished a staying on third behind the front pair of Solemia and Orfevre. It will be interesting to see how he runs on his first outing for the Godolphin team in Newmarket, but if he turns in his best form then he is certainly worthy of consideration. The marginal preference is for John Gosden’s AIKEN who was last seen being narrowly beaten by Rite Of Passage in the Long Distance Cu at Ascot. He has been steadily progressive for the last two seasons, notching up a run of six consecutive victories, the last of which came in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly last June. He is comfortable from 1m4f to 2m looks to have a good chance of victory on his return to action. 2.30 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) The Listed success of MONTIRIDGE last month finally seemed to confirm the promise that his connections felt he had. The colt set the early fractions before kicking clear of his rivals to win by two lengths without much effort at all. Before that he had been narrowly beaten in the Jersey Stakes at the Royal meeting and looks to be developing into a very smart colt. Stable jockey Richard Hughes has favoured him over stablemate Baltic Knight and this race should present an ideal opportunity to record a first Group success. One horse that could pose a danger is the Kevin Ryan-trained Glory Awaits who sprang something of a shock when finishing second in the 2000 Guineas behind Dawn Approach. He subsequently took part in the St James’ Palace where he finished fifth having set the early pace in the race. This drop back to Group 3 company should suit and it will be interesting to see how the Classic form compares to that of some of his more progressive rivals. The blinkers he wore on his last two starts have been removed and if he can produce his best form, he could well put it up to the favourite Montiridge. 3.05 Betfred Mile The Betfred Mile is usually quite a rough race but even so it was one of those where the trends hold strong, The most decisive factor in years gone by was that of the draw. In simple terms, if you weren’t drawn high you couldn’t win as backed up by the fact that 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower. Laa Rayb overturned that damning stat when winning in 2009 but on the whole it has always paid to follow the low numbers. However, with the way that stalls numbering has been changed those drawn on the far rail are now the lowest numbers so make sure you don’t get fooled. Another pretty reliable trend is regarding the winners age as 4yos and 5yos have won six of the last 10 renewals. There was always the odd 6yo thrown in for good measure but as a whole it always paid to concentrate on the age group mentioned. However, to throw a spanner in the works a 3yo has now won 3 of the last 5 renewals so perhaps their 8lbs age allowance is starting to come into play? So based on the evidence available we should be able to take on the older horses with a fair degree of confidence. Because of the affect of the draw the bookies now exactly how to price this race up and so it has generally always paid to follow those at the head of the betting as 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the first five in the betting. At the time of writing the top five in the betting are very closely matched, and with various bookmakers pricing each runner differently, there is no clear favourite, however it is Stirring Ballad who slightly heads proceedings. Dance and Dance, Wentworth, Cape Peron and Brendan Brackan make up the top five with six other rivals. But it isn’t just the draw that influences the bookies; they also look to recent form so it will come as no surprise to learn that 9 of the last 10 winners came into the race having finished in the first six places last time. So there is little point looking for a horse that has been running below par but dropped to a handy mark as historically this isn’t the race for them. Out of the top five in the betting Dance and Dance, Cape Peron, Brendan Brackan and Wentworth fit the bill, however I am happy to forgive Stirring Ballad’s final outing in which a luckless run, but had run well in Listed contests in his previous outings. There are a couple of other things to consider. 6 of the last 10 winners were officially rated between 95 and 105 implying that those at the very top and bottom of the weights tend to struggle. This may not be the strongest trend to look at this year as it only eliminates five of today’s line-up. On a trainer front Mark Johnston leads the way having won the race 3 times in the last 4 years, he saddles Es Que Love, Galician and Windhoek in a bid to win the race for a fifth time. Next best is Roger Charlton who also has a strong record having won this race twice in the recent years, but he doesn’t have a runner this time around. Marcus Tregoning won this race two years ago with Boom And Boost and he saddles the six-year-old once again this year. Saeed Bin Suroor will also be bidding to train another winner of this race with Asatir and Sandagiyr. Applying these recommendations to the field it is the William Knight-trained FIRE SHIP who comes out on top. He has been given a plum draw in seven and is reasonably well-fancied with the punters. He comes here at the peak of his powers having followed up a placed effort in France with a Listed success at Pontefract on Sunday. He only receives a 3lb penalty as a result of that success and given the form he showed at the weekend, he looks set for a big effort in this competitive heat. Cape Peron makes the shortlist having been drawn in stall five and on the back of his run in the Britannia in which the ground was probably on the quick side for him. He finished fifth on that occasion but should be better for the experience of running in such a big field and receives a valuable weight allowance as a three-year-old. He remains unexposed having only had four career starts to date and looks to have a good chance again here. The final one to make it onto the shortlist is the Richard Hannon-trained Wentworth. This colt was touted as a possible 2000 Guineas horse as a two-year-old and he has not had much good fortune in his three starts this year. He ran here in May over six furlongs and travelled strongly but his inability to find a gap meant he finished third. He ran well in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, staying on to finish fourth before the draw at Sandown meant that he could only finish third to Prince Of Johanne. He still looks a well-handicapped horse and although his draw is not ideal once again, he is worthy of a place on the shortlist. 3.40 Betfred King George Stakes (Group 2) The now seven-year-old Masamah won this race two years ago and it is regarded as one of the fastest five furlong sprints around. He is now in the care of his third different trainer in Marco Botti and showed he was back to something like his best when winning a valuable five furlong handicap at Ascot. He enjoys bowling along in front and although his form has been in and out in the last couple of seasons, his run last time suggests he retains something of his old sparkle. A return to familiar surroundings should help the gelding and he looks to have a good chance back in Group company. Tickled Pink landed her second Group 3 success of the campaign last time when landing the Coral Charge at Sandown. The filly battled well for Tom Queally, as having been headed by Mince, she got back up to defeat her and the fast-finishing Kingsgate Native. She had the advantage of the rail that day, which is quite an advantage at Sandown, but her draw looks favourable again here in stall 1. She is always fast away from the stalls which should help her secure a good position and she is a must for the shortlist over the five furlongs trip. DUKE OF FIRENZE is marginally preferred to the rest, having won the Investec Dash on Derby day at Epsom. The colt did very well that day under Ryan Moore to find his way through a maze of horses and get his head in front on the line. He finished eighth in the Wokingham next time but the race never really worked out for him next time at Sandown, where the rattling fast ground may have hindered his chances. He can boast course and distance form having won here last May and back on good ground, his potent turn of foot could well make the difference. 4.15 Golf At Goodwood Nursery Handicap Richard Fahey saddled the winner of this race last year with Jamesbo’s Girl and is represented by Regiment this time around. He seemed to need his debut outing, but came on a lot to win well at Catterick last time. His first try in a nursery was an encouraging one, finishing runner-up behind subsequent Doncaster winner Diamond Lady. This looks like a tougher assignment than he has faced so far, but Ryan Moore and Richard Fahey have started to build something of a formidable partnership, so this challenger can’t be ignored. Paul Cole’s Grecian sprang something of a surprise when winning on debut at Kempton and was somewhat unlucky not to retain his unbeaten record next time at Ascot. He has some high-profile entries in the Gimcrack and Mill Reef Stakes and looks a real contender here. YORKSHIRE RELISH is a gelding who may have slipped under the radar of most in his short career to date. Having been beaten on debut, he won a valuable selling race at York before finishing a staying on seventh in the Weatherbys Super Sprint. He was still showing signs of greenness on his third start but a return to six furlongs should suit and with more experience he looks a big player. 4.50 Betfred TV Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) Peter Chapple-Hyam has always thought quite a bit of Agent Allison since she won on debut by seven lengths at Pontefract. She finished second in the Albany next time out behind the ill-fated Newfangled before running down the field in the Prix Marcel Boussac. Her reappearance at Newbury in the Fred Darling was a good one, but she has failed sizzle in her two subsequent efforts in the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes. It is probably fair to say that the ground may have been a little quick for her on her last two starts and the drop back to seven furlongs may also work in her favour. She remains a filly of some promise and shouldn’t be dismissed dropping in grade. WINNING EXPRESS is a filly who continues to run consistently well for her trainer Ed McMahon and landed a second Listed success at Warwick last time. She ended her juvenile campaign by finishing second to Rosdhu Queen in Group 1 company and returned to action this year in the Nell Gwyn, where she filled third place. She seemed to win very easily at Warwick last time and this race seems the next logical step for a good filly like her. 5.25 Betfred Mobile Lotto Stakes There are some big stables represented in this day four finale and there are few bigger than the Warren Place stable of Lady Cecil. She saddles Retirement Plan who got off the mark in fine style at Doncaster last time. The colt is still entered in the St Leger which gives us an idea as to the regard in which he is held by connections and must be considered a potential player here. Mark Johnston’s Statutory was beaten narrowly on debut by a more experienced rival before turning over Brown Panther’s half-brother Bomber Thorn next time. This colt catches the eye on pedigree being a half-brother to four-times Group winner Papal Bull and with more improvement possible, he looks to have a good chance here. The marginal preference is for NORTHERN MEETING who gave Sir Michael Stoute a rare winner at Catterick in July. The manner of her success was dominant and he barely turned a hair, finishing five lengths clear of her rivals. She remains very lightly raced and looks a filly who if she continues her progress, would have a big chance here.

[Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood)]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) 2.15 Gordon’s Stakes Day Three of Glorious Goodwood begins with a competitive handicap for horses of the Classic generation. Roman Republic and Road To Love have both given Mark Johnston victories here in the last decade and he will be hoping his pair of runners here can add to that tally. Mushaakis is marginally preferred as a result of his Ripon success last time out. The colt has been steadily progressive throughout the season and has not finished outside of the first three places on his last eight racecourse appearances. There would have to be something of a concern if too much rain gets into the ground, but if he gets his favoured conditions, he looks difficult to dismiss. Henry Candy’s CODE OF HONOR beat Mushaakis at Sandown at the beginning of this month in fine style and looks set to have a big say in proceedings this time around. He scooted clear to win by three lengths on that occasion and despite being raised to a mark of 96, he deserves some respect. He seemed to relish the step-up to ten furlongs last time and given that he is still relatively unexposed and that his trainer has suggested that he could be up to Listed class in the future, he looks difficult to oppose here. One horse who may throw a spanner in the works is Red Avenger who put two poor runs behind him when beating Broughton by three lengths on his first try at ten furlongs. He also ran well subsequently behind the progressive Maputo at Newmarket and looks to have a good chance in this competitive contest. 2.45 Audi Richmond Stakes (Group 2) As Richard Hannon has saddled four of the last five winners of this contest, his representative in this year’s field seems the logical place to start. THUNDER STRIKE was unbeaten heading into Royal Ascot and finished fourth behind the impressive War Command in the Coventry Stakes. This saw him finish around a length and a half behind another of his rivals Parbold, although Richard Fahey’s colt sat off the pace in the early part of the race. Thunder Strike ran in the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes behind Miracle Of Medinah a couple of weeks ago, but failed to fire at any stage in fifth place. He will need to bounce back to his best here, but given the form that the Hannon team have shown in recent days, that does not seem out of the question. One interesting runner to throw into the ring is the Richard Fahey-trained Salford Red Devil who has so far only visited Chester for a racecourse appearance in his four career starts. The colt most recently beat Lily Agnes winner Quatuor over five furlongs, in which he needed every yard of the trip to get his head in front. The more conventional course combined with the step-up in trip should suit and could out run his price, given his unconventional form to date. 3.15 Artemis Goodwood Cup (Group 2) Having recorded four victories and finished fifth in the Melbourne Cup, it is fair to say that Mount Athos has improved since moving to the stable of Luca Cumani. He can boast two Group successes and a Listed victory at distances further than 1m4f and looks an interesting candidate in his first run in Britain over 2m+ since finishing fourth in the Cesarewitch of 2011. He shaped as if he 1m4f was too short for him in the Hardwicke last time and as the current market leader, he can’t be ruled out. The German raider Altano is worth mentioning, considering the success that they have enjoyed on these shores this season, most notably with Novellist in the King George last weekend. He has two Group 3 victories to his name over two miles in his native Germany on good ground and was a staying on fifth in the Ascot Gold Cup last time. There is an argument to say he was given a little too much to do there and with the step back in trip likely to suit, he looks an interesting contender. The marginal preference is for CAUCUS who seems to have found his best form at the age of six. Following victory in the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes in September, Caucus found only Estimate too good in the Sagaro Stakes on his reappearance. He beat the progressive Biographer last time at Sandown, with the pair drawing well clear of the rest of their rivals. The gelding seems to be in good order and looks set to put in another big effort here. 3.45 Blackrock Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) WILD COCO landed this race twelve months ago and bids to become the second dual winner of the race in the last decade after Tartouche in 2005 and 2006. She has only run once since then in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last September, where she won readily against her female rivals. She has yet to run on a racecourse this year, but given that she won this race off a twelve month lay-off suggests her fitness should not be questioned. She is a very good filly and looks to have a good chance of giving the Warren Place team a third win in the last five years. Her most likely challenges seems to come from the Classic generation and the best of these looks to be the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Elik. She won the Listed Height Of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood in May before finishing third in the Ribblesdale at Ascot. She was staying on well that day suggesting that the increased trip should pose no problems for the filly and given that she represents top connections, she could be the one to put it to the favourite. 4.20 EBF British Stallion Studs New Ham Maiden Fillies’ Stakes This seven furlongs fillies’ maiden has thrown up some nice performers in recent years and this year’s renewal promises to be no different. There are some interesting newcomers from big yard such as Radiator, who is a daughter of a Grade 1 winner in the US and hails from the line that brought us stallions such as Dansili. She currently has an entry in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket and as such could be one to keep an eye on on debut. Another interesting debutant is Remember, who represents the juvenile supremo Richard Hannon. This filly cost 52,000 Guineas as a yearling and given the form of the yard, especially with their two-year-olds, it would be foolish to not include her on the shortlist. However, it is worth noting that only one of the last ten winners of this race was making their racecourse debut, so therefore I would prefer something with a little more experience. Amazing Maria has so far had two starts, most recently behind the useful pair of J Wonder and Autumn Sunrise at Newbury. She looked to be staying on well at the end in that contest and a return to seven furlongs could suit the filly now that she has more experience. JERSEY BROWN must have shown connections quite a bit to let her take her chance in a Novice Auction race on debut, where she didn’t disgrace herself running on into fourth. That outing will have taught the filly a lot with the step-up in trip likely to suit, she looks to have a good chance. 4.50 Tatler Stakes Charlie Hills’ Regal Dan took some time to get the hang of winning races, getting off the mark at the seventh attempt over seven furlongs at Doncaster in September. He began his three-year-old campaign with an impressive effort behind Shahdaroba before running down the field at Ascot. There were signs of encouragement last time when he was beaten less than five lengths in eight at the July meeting. The booking of Ryan Moore is an eye-catching one and returning to seven furlongs, he could run well. Richard Fahey saddled the winner of this race in 2005 with Tagula Sunrise and is represented by Majestic Moon this time around. The gelding arrives here on a hat-trick on the back of impressive victories at York and Newmarket. His latest success suggested there was still some improvement in him and although this is a step-up in class, he looks worth his place in the line-up. The marginal preference is for EQUITY RISK who was outside the frame for the first time in his career last time. That was over six furlongs and in truth he never seemed to be going for Silvestre De Sousa. He won on his only previous attempt at seven furlongs and if you ignore that last run, he looks to be a likely player in the finish. 5.25 QIPCO Future Stars Apprentice Stakes It is often the case in these Apprentice riders races that the ability of the jockeys often has more effect than in a normal race. With that in mind, it may be best to focus on the horses being ridden by the higher profile jockeys. Thomas Brown has built quite a reputation for himself in the weighing room and partners Benzanno for his boss Andrew Balding. The four year-old has steadily come down the handicap in recent months and now running off a workable mark, he looks to have a good chance. Last year’s winning connections Mark Johnston and Michael J M Murphy team up again this year with the eight-year-old Copperwood. He recorded his latest success over nine furlongs in July at Epsom before running down the field behind Ascription earlier this week. The Johnston yard are beginning to find their form and with that in mind, he must have a good chance here. XINBAMA gets the main vote on the back of two victories at Epsom within the space of a week. His jockey Nicole Nordblad has excelled this season notching twelve winners and earning rides for other stables. The horse is heading the right way, much the same as her jockey and the pair should go close in this tricky contest.

[Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood)]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 1:55 UBS Goodwood Stakes A rare flat race over this marathon trip and starting with tape and not stalls all serves to make this a pretty unique event. The nature of this race means that jumps trainers often send a strong hand of horses, and one of these really worth looking at is fielded by this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winning trainer, Nicky Henderson; LIEUTENANT MILLER. Henderson won this race in 2010 and looks to have an excellent chance of repeating the feat with this horse, the Beat All 7 year old was a useful hurdler but he has yet to finish out of the first three on the level, and comes here on the back of an extremely eye catching run at Royal Ascot when only beaten by a rare flat runner for JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neill and a Cecil trained favourite. This horse is a strong stayer and looks the pick of the horses fielded here by jumps trainers. Other trainers with previous winners also have interesting horses running for them in this event; Mark Johnston fields Broxbourne, who will be looking to reverse Doncaster form with Lieutenant Miller, and comes here off the back of a two mile Royal Ascot handicap win. He is improving for these staying trips, and tries his furthest yet here today and can’t be underestimated for a powerful yard with a good record at this track. The enigmatic Sir Mark Prescott has also won this race in recent years, and has his horses in devastatingly good form, with 10 winners from his last 15 runners and only 2 of the remaining 5 unplaced. He has the beautifully bred Italian Riviera here, by Galileo and out of listed winning mare, Miss Corniche. This horse has again improved dramatically for the longer trips, three times a winner over 2 miles and over, in only five runs. He could be well treated off a mark of 80 in this race and cannot be discounted for a yard in such strong form. The last horse worth a mention is Kazbow who is unbeaten in three runs in 2013, including over 2 mile 5 ½f at Pontefract, so staying should be assured. Richard Ford won’t be a trainer known for his big day wins, and indeed this horse is his only entry for the Glorious Meeting, however jockey Graham Lee this looks to be one of the more likely outsiders. 2:30 Neptune Investment Management Gordon Stakes This group three has been dominated by big, powerful yards over the years, and has had some excellent horses win it over the years such as Sixties Icon and Harbinger. This year sees a relatively small field of 7 taking part, but the field is made up of good, closely matched horses and it looks to be an incredibly competitive affair. Last year Godolphin saddled eventual St Leger winner, Enke who came a narrow second to Noble Mission in this event. This year have the interesting Cap O’Rushes running for Charlie Appleby, Godolphin’s recent replacement for Mahmood Al Zarooni. He was a two time winner as a two year old, and has run respectably since without winning, including a very eye catching run in a Royal Ascot handicap and fourth in the Irish Derby, he’s obviously got plenty of ability and him getting his head in front could be a very likely possibility. Running in the colours of last year’s winner is EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, while he hasn’t won a race since his maiden there is the very legitimate argument that subsequent runs were over inadequate trips, a staying on effort over two furlongs shorter at Sandown in a listed event at the beginning of July suggested that this sort of trip might suit, and he is a serious threat in this field. 3:05 QIPCO Sussex Stakes For the last two years this race has belonged Frankel, and there isn’t quite such a peerless animal in this years renewal, but there are some incredibly good horses, but much like the 2011 ‘dual on the downs’, all eyes will be on two competitors, Dawn Approach and Toronado, who are arguably the two best horses over a mile currently in training. Dawn Approach really caught the racing community’s imagination as a two year old, winning all 6 starts, including two Group 1 contests. He was an impressive winner of the 2000 Guineas, before his inability to settle meant he could play no real part of the Epsom Derby and finished last of the 12 runners. He bounced back from that to beat main rival Toronado by a short head at Royal Ascot in the St James’ Palace. Toronado comes from the Richard Hannon yard, who had won this race with Canford Cliffs before losing that title to Frankel in 2011. Three times a winner as a juvenile, including a real battling effort in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. He went on to make light work of the Craven Stakes on his first run as a three year old, before running well below form in the Guineas, finishing fourth and being beaten by stable mate, Van Der Neer. He showed what was felt to be far more his true form going down by a short head in a photo to Dawn Approach in the St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He comes here for his first run at his trainers stomping ground and commands plenty of respect. The manner in which these two left the rest of the field behind in the St James’ Palace suggests much the same will happen in this field, these two will forge clear and the race will be battled out between themselves. Dawn Approach does come here with two wins over TORONADO, but Hannon’s colt showed he was far more closely matched than the Guineas run suggested at Ascot, and at a track his trainer does so well at he is worth giving another chance to beat his rival. 3:40 Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes Despite only having 7 runners, this illustrious race for two year olds looks to be seriously competitive. This race has been dominated by Richard Hannon in recent years, who has won the last three runnings of this race. This year he has Expert and Toormore, both of which fail to really catch the imagination. Parbold is of interest for Richard Fahey, a smart debut winner before going on to the Coventry Stakes, where he was second behind the incredibly impressive War Command. He is obviously a smart individual, and would be dangerous to underestimate. Godolphin two year olds are usually a force to be reckoned with, and OUTSTRIP is well worth a mention. Unsurprisingly when one considers his connections, this horse is beautifully bred by Exceed and Excel, an exceptional sire of two year olds and out of Asi Siempre who was a real force to be reckoned with in the states, winning six races including the group 1 Spinster Stakes at Keeneland. He lived up to his black type heavy pedigree on debut at Newmarket where, despite being a bit green in the early stages of the race, he won his maiden well and the form looks strong; beating True Story who went on to beat Expert who runs here. If he can build on that performance and tidy up the start of his races he has an excellent chance here. 4:15 Markel Insurance Maiden Fillies Stakes Another two year old race here, this time a much bigger field, and an interesting mix of fillies with experience as well as some without it. A placed effort on the all weather at Lingfield doesn’t always provoke the most interest, but MUCH PROMISE did just that, behind Along Again (who was odds on), who subsequently placed behind Princess Noor in a Group 3 at Ascot this Weekend, which looks like it could be a pretty strong line of form. The Qatar racing owned filly is in excellent hands with John Gosden who gets his fair share of two year old winners here, and it would be no great shock to see her run a big race. Of the horses making their first starts here Fashion Fund looks an interesting entry for Brian Meehan, who has an excellent record with two year olds at Goodwood. He has the right pedigree to be a good two year old on both sides of the family and her dam was out of the excellent Gossamer, a winner of three fillies Group races in the early 2000’s. It would be foolish to overlook such a well bred horse from a yard with such a good two year old record at this track. One final horse worth a second glance is Valonia, trained by Henry Candy. This horses only run to date was second in a Newmarket maiden, when one of the outsiders of the field at 33/1, the horse she was beaten by has gone on to finish second in a listed race, and she finished ahead of a Hannon favourite, Oriel who has won since. With that form looking strong, she is one to consider in a tricky and competitive event. 4:50 British Stallion Studs Turf Club EBF Fillies’ Stakes We now have a tough and competitive fillies handicap to crack, one non-runner leaving us with 15 to work out. One it’s immediately hard to ignore is GREAT TIMING one of a strong handful of runners over the course of the day for Charlie Appleby. She made her debut here and got a bit outpaced towards the end of the race, but that’s not been a problem since, and has won two of her three subsequent starts, staying on smartly at the end of her races, with an official racing of 95 she is the highest rated horse in the race, but a weight for age allowance means she doesn’t have a sacrificial weight to carry, and she should be able to show her class in this field. James Fanshawe fields the unbeaten Ribbons for the Elite Racing Club, who won here at the beginning of May. She has done nothing wrong in her career to date and although this will be the toughest company she’s faced to date and she’ll need to prove herself in that regard she has a fantastic attitude and should run a game race. Finally at the foot of the handicap is Close At Hand, while there is some worry that she has been held by Saucy Minx who runs here for Amanda Perrett in May, that was over 2 furlongs shorter and she was running on. This horse looks like she is improving, and is coming here of the back of a strong staying on run when winning over a mile at Windsor, looking like their might be a bit more to come with a slight step up in trip, which she’ll have here. She’s been given a bit of a chance with a mark of 76 and is an interesting runner for a top handler . 5:25 Harwoods Racing Club Handicap The last race of the day will be a difficult event to solve with 20 runners over a 7 furlong trip. Discretion is an interesting runner for Kevin Ryan, who hasn’t won since winning a handicap at Newcastle last August, he received a bit of a hike in the weights for that and is finally back to his winning mark and could be interesting running here off that. At the foot of the handicap is My Kingdom, who is here to make is 59th start, he wouldn’t be the most consistent of winners, but he does like it here, having won twice over course and distance, and remains in good heart, winning at Newmarket in June. He races here off a mark of 77, and has won off 86 in the past, so the mark should be workable. Both Stuart Williams and Mickael Barzalona have good records with older horses here and this 7 year old has a good chance here. BRAVO ECHO is another 7 year old running here of what could potentially be a good mark for this horse. He’ll be making his 54th start here, and again won’t be remembered as being the most consistent of winners but he was a winner twice here last season, and ran here in May and June finishing third and second before heading to Deauville where he beat no slouch in Ariete Arrollodor, he’s won off marks as high as 96 in the past, so carrying 82 here shouldn’t prove an impossibility. One final horse to consider in this large field is Askaud, who has been stepped down to 7 furlongs for his last two runs, which has proved a successful venture, as he managed to win them both, and can boast previous Goodwood form.He won at Haydock off a higher mark so carrying 86 here shouldn’t prove an impossibility, and he has held the higher rated Good Authority in the past, so is well worth a glance in this field.

[Flat Racing ~ Tuesday July 30th (Day 1 Goodwood)]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday July 30th (Day 1 Goodwood)

Just be very very very wary.....the rain will come down in bucket loads tonight in the south...to not know ground conditions at Goodwood prior to putting money down is lunacy.

taken from racing post : Lee Mottershead, our man at the track, reports conditions are getting worse with the rain coming down heavier and visibility getting poorer all the time. Follow Lee's updates on Tipping Live. (3 mins ago)

[Flat Racing ~ Tuesday July 30th (Day 1 Goodwood)]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday July 30th (Day 1 Goodwood) 1.55 – Bet365.com Stakes William Haggas’ Fast Or Free is an interesting runner here, as we haven’t seen him since winning the Britannia at Royal Ascot last June. He was having only his fourth start that day and improved again despite being raised 7lb by the handicapper prior to his win. His fitness would have to be taken on trust here and although he is stepping up to ten furlongs for the first time, it would be no surprise to see him go close on his return to action. Whispering Warrior is one of the more progressive runners in the field, arriving here in search of a hat-trick. His victory at Newcastle last time gave the impression that the colt still had more to offer and as a result he was raised 8lbs. This contest is a tougher assignment but having only been beaten once in his last six starts it would be foolish to rule him out based on his continued progression. The marginal preference is for NABUCCO who beat another of today’s rivals Strictly Silver last time. This success came on the back of a good run behind subsequent winner Niceofyoutotellme at Newmarket and he looks like the sort who can continue to improve. His draw is not ideal but the way in which he ran at Newmarket gives me encouragement there is more to come and that he can go close here. 2.30 – Bet365 Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) Supplicant was denied victory in the Windsor Castle Stakes in the dying strides by Exortionist, who benefitted from being held up off such a strong pace. Richard Fahey’s filly sat nearer to the pace and did well to finish her race off considering the break-neck gallop. Last year’s winner Bungle Inthejungle was also beaten in the Windsor Castle before winning here and the booking of Ryan Moore suggests connections feel she is likely to go close. Mick Channon has trained the winner of this race twice in the last ten years and saddles AMBIANCE in this year’s renewal. He finished fourth in the Norfolk which has proved a popular path for past winners of this race. The colt has subsequently recorded a Listed success before running down the field in a Group 2 contest over six furlongs. The return to five furlongs will suit the colt and he looks an attractive proposition at the prices . 3.05 – Bet365 Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Aljamaaheer’s Group 2 success in the Summer Mile gives him leading claims in this contest as well as his two placed efforts in Group 1 company earlier in the season. He drops back to seven furlongs here which wouldn’t be ideal but he is in good form and would be difficult to dismiss based on that. He does carry a penalty for his Group 2 success, something only two of the last ten winners had managed to do, but given the level to which he has been performing he would be difficult to dismiss. Producer is something of a seven furlongs specialist, having been successful seven times at this trip during his career. These victories include a course and distance success in the Group 3 Supreme Stakes last August, which could work in his favour given the undulating nature of the downs. He has plenty going for him here, including the fact he beat Aljamaheer at Leicester at the beginning of the campaign. The Richard Hannon yard are often associated with Goodwood success and Producer looks like he could get them off the mark early in the week. GARSWOOD ran on this day last year in the two-year-old maiden but he has come a long way since finishing fourth behind Blessington. His reappearance as a three year-old saw him win the European Free Handicap in fine style, before a luckless run in the 2000 Guineas behind Dawn Approach. He was fourth in the Jersey Stakes last time, a race which seems to be working out well and the booking of Ryan Moore is a good one. A three year-old has won half of the last ten renewals and with the weight-for-age scale beginning to suit the Classic generation, Garswood looks well in with his rivals and looks very likely to be involved at the finish. 3.40 – Bet365 Summer Stakes Oriental Fox showed exactly what he was capable of in the Northumberland Plate, getting beaten only a short-head by Tominator right on the line. That run came over two miles and given the way he kicked clear with two furlongs to run suggests that the drop back in trip will suit the five-year-old. His trainer Mark Johnston has saddled two recent winners of this race and given the form the yard are in at the moment, he certainly deserves a place on the shortlist. Roger Charlton’s Silver Lime seemed to relish the step up to 1m6f last time, beating the progressive Caravan Rolls On in the process. He enjoys running here at Goodwood having won an 11f handicap here last August and a return to familiar territory could work in his favour here. He is still unexposed at this distance and could pose a big threat to the main selection. Alan King won this race four years ago with Manyriverstocross and saddles another interesting contender here in ARDLUI. The five year-old has switched between the flat and hurdles for the last couple of seasons, but has enjoyed some success on the level. Most recently he beat Lady Karshaan over two miles before running well for a long way in the Northumberland Plate after which he was dropped in the handicap despite running well for a long way. The drop back in trip may well suit here if he is allowed to dictate and he could run a big race off an attractive mark of 96. 4:15 Casino at Bet365 EBF Maiden Stakes This has the potential to be a strong maiden, and plenty of those who have run have shown a very respectable level of form, and there are some very nice pedigrees attached to plenty of those who are debuting here. Hannon’s record at Goodwood with this age group needs no introduction, and he has a strong hand of three here, perhaps the most interesting is Munfallet, who despite being beaten on his second start when 1/3 shouldn’t be written off, he made a pleasing start to his career at this track in May when a 2 length third behind Lanark, and Ben Hall, who finished behind him won next time out. There is plenty of ability there, however perhaps on pedigree he maybe wants a slightly longer trip and a bit more time. MYSTIQUE RIDER comes from Olly Stevens’ yard, a first season trainer who’s not had a bad start to his career at all, having already won nearly £90,000 prize money with a small string. He has managed a small handful of two year old winners and, and 16 placed efforts on top of that. This son of Kyllachy made a promising start to his career at Salisbury in May, despite a starting price of 25/1 when a close third behind Saayer who went on to beat Lilbourne Lass before being sent to Royal Ascot. That form line looks like it might prove pretty strong and he’s not one to overlook. Of the horses making their debuts Under The Moon looks one of the most interesting, trained by Charles Hills who has been enjoying plenty of success with his two year olds, not least with Royal Ascot winner Kiyoshi. This horse is bred to be pretty useful, by Exceed and Excel who needs no introduction with regards to his two year old progeny, and out of Strawberry Moon, who was a tough and consistent mare, who was only out of the first three once in her 11 race career, which should hopefully stand him in good stead here. 4:50 Poker at Bet365 Stakes When looking for a winner at Goodwood a very good place to start can often be looking at Richard Hannon entries, of which there are two in this race. Richard Hughes has sided with Democretes, however Juvenal making a return after nearly a year off is arguably a more interesting runner, his form over this trip reads 35121, he has only been out of the placing’s twice in ten starts, and went reasonably well fresh at the start of last season over what may have been an inadequate trip. Another interesting horse returning from a fair lay off is Captain Cat from the Roger Charlton yard, who boast a 30% strike rate over the last 5 years on this course. While this horse technically only has a class 5 maiden to his name, winners such as Lahaag and Wildomar have come out of that event, and he didn’t run badly on his only start since then when second at Ascot in October. He could well be an improving horse, and he is in very good hands. Towards the foot of the handicap Mark Johnston has two interesting runners with very different profiles, 8 year old Copperwood comes here for his 97th career start, and the three year old Desert Revolution is here for what is only his third. Copperwood has been a consistent servant to the Johnston team, winning 14 times, including 8 times over this trip, and is as good as ever having won three times this season. He shouldn’t be weighted out of things and should run his usual genuine race. DESERT REVOLUTION is very interesting, well bred by Pivotal and out of Darley mare, Persian Secret who won two races and posted some excellent efforts in listed races. He was still slightly green when winning on what was only his second start, but he got the job done pleasingly enough and showed a fair bit of potential, staying on towards the line. The Johnston team have seen plenty of the inside of the winners enclosure of late, and it would be no surprise to see these two horses from an in form yard run big races. 5:25 Mobile at Bet365 Stakes. This can be a tricky race to solve, with 26 runners and plenty of horses who are in and out of form; it’s not surprising that last year’s winner’s starting price was 22/1, and there were some huge priced horses filling up the placing’s. The Peter Makin trained BLANC DE CHINE could be an interesting place to start, already a course and distance winner and out of three runs on good ground, has won two races, one of them here at Goodwood. He has plenty of form with many of the runners in this race and repeating some of those runs should see him go close despite a mark of 89 to contend with. Hoping to give trainer John Spearing his first Goodwood winner is Whitecrest, bred for the job being by Ishiguru and out of Risky Valentine who won two sprint races and placed 7 times over a two season career. He’s won twice over the minimum trip this season and has been consistent since, and a mark of 79 seems fair. Towards the bottom of the handicap, My Son Max looks an interesting entry, his form over 5 furlongs is very respectable, winning over the trip as a two year old on debut in 2010, and only being dropped back to it again in December, where he posted a creditable third, he’s since managed two good places, and a further win and hasn’t been too far away every time he’s run over the trip. He comes here on the back of a respectable fifth at Newmarket, 2 ½ lengths behind Last Sovereign. He will be partnered by promising 5lb claimer, Robert Tart whose only previous ride at Goodwood resulted in a win. The Ian Williams trained Cruise Tothelimit is worthy of note also, running an excellent race here last year to finish a 1 length fifth behind the winner, then going on to win a reasonably strong 14 runner handicap over this trip at Chester towards the tail end of the season. His last two runs, placing at Windsor and Thirsk look like good preparation for heading into this event and having been a winner on everything from soft to good to firm ground won’t need to be a worry either.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread pricewise selection for saturday are 6 for Segal on Sat 1.55 Ascot Taajub 10/1 1.55 Ascot Barnet Fair 12/1 2.30 Ascot Afsare 15/2 2.55 York Educate 10/1 3.15 Newmarket Es Que Love 12/1 3.50 Newmarket Sole Power 9/1

[The Jockey Thread]

Re: The Jockey Thread [h=1]Toomey seriously hurt in fall[/h] [h=2]Jockey Brian Toomey was on Thursday night suffering from a "life-threatening head injury" in hospital following a heavy fall at Perth.[/h] Toomey, a 3lb claimer, was partnering the Lisa Harrison-trained Solway Dandy in the Book Now For 2014 Perth Festival Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle when the 11/4 favourite came to grief three flights from home. An air ambulance arrived shortly after the accident, but Toomey was instead transported to Dundee's Ninewells Hospital by road. Speaking shortly before 10pm, a spokesperson for NHS Tayside said Toomey was "suffering from a life-threatening head injury." Toomey is attached to the yard of Kevin Ryan in North Yorkshire and is the boyfriend of the trainer's daughter, Amy. Hambleton Racing have horses with Ryan and tweeted: "Very concerned to hear the news about Brian Toomey this evening, thoughts with him and Amy." above taken from sporting life: Well it brings it all home how much these jockeys put on the line for are entertainment lets pray and hope for Brian Toomey fingers crossed and my thoughts are with you and your loved ones

[Jump Racing ~ Sunday June 30th]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sunday June 30th

3.45 Uttoxeter: John Smith’s Summer Cup (Handicap Chase) (Listed) (3m2f) Very good renewal of the Summer Cup and a difficult puzzle to solve with a couple of unexposed sorts with Irish form, both Victrix Gale and Pineau De Re are hard to weigh up and could easily be good enough to take this. At the prices I quite like Storm Survivor, Jonjo’s second string, he’s won over this trip and likes decent ground. Problema Tic is worth saving on as he won well at Perth last time and is useful when in the mood. Selections: 1pt EW Storm Survivor 33/1

Coral 1pt Problema Tic 10/1 BetVictor

Full preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/uttoxeter-betting-storm-survivor-is-each-way-value-in-wide-open-summer-cup-20130630

very well done with storm survivor billy cracking price aswell

[Royal Ascot Day 5 ~ Saturday]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 5 ~ Saturday 2:30 CHESHAM STAKES Overall, this has been a very decent race for punters as 22 of the last 24 winners could be found in the first four in the betting (ten started favourite or joint-favourite), positions currently held by Bunker, Somewhat, Friendship and Autumn Lilly so SP stats over a long period of time say we should not too far away from that quartet. Bunker was described by Richard Hannon Jnr at the Preview Evening I attended last week as the best looking horse in the yard, let alone just his two-year-olds, so his supporters will be hoping the phrase ‘handsome is as handsome does’ is at its most relevant here. As for his only run so far, he was always prominent over 6f before running on strongly to win at Haydock by 2½ lengths into a headwind so the seventh furlong should be no problem for him and this race was nominated for him straight afterwards. Like 10 of the last 15 winners, Bunker also won his sole start as have Somewhat and Autumn Lilly of others likely to start in the first four in the betting, as did the David Evans-trained Lone Warrior. Somewhat won his sole start just eight days ago by seven lengths (started at 5/6) at Musselburgh and will be bidding to give Mark Johnston his fourth Chesham Stakes winner. No surprise that Johnston should like this race as it’s about quality combined with stamina being over 7f this early in a two-year-old career as toughness is the hallmark of his training operation. Although out of luck with his runners in the last six years (though he was unrepresented on two of those occasions), his previous six runners heralded three winners and a third. Johnston also runs Bureau who was beaten a neck on her debut over 7f at Sandown last week and is out of the former Cheveley Park Stakes winner, Embassy. One of the two Godolphin hopes, Autumn Lily, also meets the profile of having won her only start and is likely to start in the first four in the betting and Saeed Bin Suroor won the Chesham last year with Tha’ir. Autumn Lily also started at 5/6 for her debut and was a ready winner by 2½ lengths at Haydock ten days ago and looks best of a four-strong challenge for fillies that have done well in the Chesham from few runners. In addition to supplying the runner-up and third last season and the second-place finisher in 2010, three fillies have won in the last 12 years (Seba, Whazzat and Maybe) so we have to take them seriously especially considering they are considerably outnumbered and also have the option of the Albany Stakes over a stiff 6f yet their connections still elect to run here. Despite Autumn Lilly being the most fancied Godolphin contender in the betting, it is interesting to note that William Buick rides with the stable jockey, Sylvestre De Sousa, aboard Ihtimal whose form we will know a lot more about after Thursday’s Albany Stakes as she was runner-up to Kiyoshi and then Wedding Ring who both contest the opener over 6f 24 hours earlier. Aidan O’Brien’s Friendship looks like being the other contender to start in the first four in the betting and he too has had one run but was beaten into third at Listowel on soft ground but is expected to come on plenty. It is questionable whether this Listed7fevent is quite the stamina test it used to be since they relayed the track but7fin mid-June must still be viewed as a test of stamina for two-year-olds so no surprise whatsoever that stamina-laden sires take over particularly when we consider that this race is restricted to progeny of stallions that had won over a minimum of 9½f. Of the last 18 winners, 50% were by offspring of stallions whose Sire Index was over 10f,though of the front four in the market, Autumn Lilly’s sire (Street Cry) has a Sire Index of 9f. Six of the other nine winners Sire Index’s were comfortably over 9f. SHORT LIST Somewhat Bunker Autumn Lily CONCLUSION In a nutshell, look for a winner of their sole start in the first four in the betting by a stallion with a Sire Index of over 10f (unless a first season sire of course) and the two horses that fit that profile head the market so let’s keep this simple. Given Mark Johnston has trained three Chesham Stakes winners then SOMEWHAT just shades Bunker on trends. In a RacingUK feature about two weeks ago on Mark Johnston, the Royal Ascot-loving Scot mentioned his Chesham horse had yet to run but he wanted to get a run into him and once Somewhat sluiced home by seven lengths at Musselburgh having been very well backed all day a few days later, it was always going to be this 7f test for him next. The fact he is by American sire, Dynaformer, would suggest he will enjoy the ground if it is as fast as Thursday when the first three home in the Norfolk Stakes all broke the 5f track record (though they have watered after racing on Thursday) and he should benefit from that initial experience as Fanning reported he was green during the race. BUNKER is also very strong on trends. It was always going to be the Chesham for him after he won well on sole start at Haydock (the third has since won at Sandown on its next start) and Richard Hannon knows what it takes having won this race in 2008 and 2009. They are drawn fairly close to each other in a 20-runner contest and I imagine Hughes will be keen to follow Fanning and try and grab him in the final furlong. The front four in the betting have such a strong record in this race so we have to respect Friendship for Aidan O’Brien whose filly, Maybe, bolted up in this race two years ago but I prefer Saeed Bin Suroor’s AUTUMN LILY for the final shortlist berth as fillies have such a good record in this race of late from few runners and she was a winner on her sole start unlike Friendship though I would have liked to have seen Godolphin’s stable jockey on her rather than their other runner, Ihtimal. Once punters latch on to the fact that De Sousa is on the latter and if her form is franked in Friday’s Albany Stakes, I can see their other filly, Ihtimal, being nicely supported. 3:05 HARDWICKE STAKES Harbinger and Await The Dawn proved themselves to be a cut above the opposition in 2010 and 2011 winning easily at odds-on and Sea Moon completed the hat-trick for favourites striking at 3/1 last season and it would appear that Mount Athos will be sent off favourite to give punters four successful market leaders on the spin in the Hardwicke. I don’t doubt that if all three had carried a Group 1 penalty they would have still won but that is irrelevant now that the Group 1 penalty for this race was dispensed with last season. The fact still remains, however, that only Assatis in 1990 was a former Group 1 winner though that statistic is also irrelevant this year as no Group 1 winners take their chance. As for Group 2 or Group 3 winners yet to win at the highest level, they have been responsible for 16 of the last 18 Hardwicke Stakes winners so that would appear to bey the way to go and they are represented by Aiken (Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly), Dandino (Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes and Group 3 September Stakes), Mount Athos (Group 3 Ormonde Stakes), Noble Mission (Group 3 Gordon Stakes), Thomas Chippendale (Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes) and Universal (Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes and Group3 John Porter Stakes). Of that sextet only Mount Athos and Universal have won a Group race this season which is something that eight of the last 11 winners had achieved. The Coronation Cup has been the best guide signposting 7 of the last 15 winners, all of which finished between third and sixth, but that Group 1 race is unrepresented this season as is the Huxley Stakes which has been another fine recent guiude. That leaves the John Porter Stakes as the best relevant guide this year, a race in which the winner also has a good record here with two of the last six (Maraahel and Harbinger) also going on to win. Universal just for the better of Quiz Mistress with Noble Mission (who looked anything but willing to put it all in) back in third in this season’s renewal. Trainers to note are Sir Michael Stoute (has supplemented Sir John Hawkwood after two impressive handicap victories) with as many as seven Hardwicke Stakes winners between 1996-2012, Mark Johnston (Universal) with four previous Hardwicke winners and Saeed Bin Suroor (Songcraft) gunning for his third win in the race. SHORT LIST Mount Athos Universal Thomas Chippendale CONCLUSION MONT ATHOS has plenty going for him bidding to become the fourth winning favourite in as many years if he keeps hold of his position at the head of the market. One of just two Group-race winners earlier in the season like 8 of the last 11 winners, he looked all class winning the Ormonde Stakes and would surely have gone close in the Gold Cup if they headed down that route instead. The reason he didn’t is because the Melbourne Cup, in which he was a fast-finishing fifth last season, is his big aim again and Australian Handicappers tend to allocate a horse’s weight judged on quality of race won rather than form (bizarre I know but there we go) so better for his chances in November if he wins a Group 2 at Royal Ascot rather than a Group 1. I appreciate he had nothing to beat in the Ormonde after his only serious market rival ran a stinker but the manner in which he attacked and travelled through the race suggested he could be even better this season at the age of six and I think he will take a deal of beating here to end Luca Cumani ‘s long run without a Royal Ascot winner. As UNIVERSAL is the only other Group race winner this season, he has to be respected especially as that came in the John Porter Stakes like two of the last six winners and Mark Johnston has already won this race four times. Since that Newbury win he has won again in an admittedly weak running of the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes where he made all to beat Dandino by a neck. The level of form of those two wins is only 3lbs below that of Mount Athos (top rated) but he is so game that I am sure he can dig deeper and improve again if a better horse came to challenge. Ektihaam is the main market rival to Mount Athos having slammed Thomas Chippendale by six lengths over course and distance in a Listed race in May having previously got to within 1½ lengths of Al Kazeem in the Gordon Richards Stakes over 1m2f. Al Kazeem needed that run and his class got him through so don’t read that form at face value. However, Ektihaam came into his own when upped to 1m4f for the first time but if he is to be successful he would become only the third winner in 19 years not to have won a Group race earlier in his career. Aiken represents John Gosden but his Royal Ascot seasonal debutants in pattern race have been falling comfortably short at this meeting so far (Elusive Kate and The Fugue) so I expect he will build on what he achieves today. With seven wins already in this race it was an eye opener to see Sir Michael Stoute supplement Sir John Hawkwood after handicap successes at the Chester and Dante Meetings in May. His other seven winners had been proven pattern performers so whether he is good enough would be my main concern. I don’t think Dandino is quite good enough or Noble Mission is brave enough but I can see a much better run from THOMAS CHIPPENDALE than when easily beaten by Ektihaam as I take the view he was being brought along steadily by Sir Henry Cecil to peak for this race having won the King Edward VII Stakes at this meeting last year so he makes some each-way appeal at a double figure price. Lady Cecil won the Ribblesdale with Riposte and the form of the stable since Sir Henry’s passing has been terrific. The booking of Johhny Murtagh catches the eye. 3:45 DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES Previous Royal Ascot form has been an excellent pointer in a very-hard-to-nail Group 1 sprint as ten of the last 17 winners had been placed at worst at this meeting before. Take the 25/1 surprise winner two years ago and probable favourite this year, Society Rock, for example as he finished second in this race 12 months earlier at 50/1. Whether it is theBerkshirecourse that brings the best out of such contenders or the fact their connections have readied them for this particular week is a difficult one to weigh up but I suspect there is something in both arguments. Four of the last ten winners ran in the King’s Stand Stakes on Tuesday so it is surprising no contenders from that 5f sprint this year take their chance. Outside of previous Royal Ascot form, the Duke Of York Stakes won by Society Rock by a head from Lethal Force has been the best guide and he did particularly well to win being the first to do so with a Group 1 penalty. Since 1992, eight Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners ran in that Group 2 event on the Knavesmire over the same trip with five finishing first or second before striking here. There were plenty of eye catchers behind Society Rock at York, notably the third, Gordon Lord Byron, who raced away from the main action also under a Group 1 penalty and being a 7f winner at the highest level then you might expect him to appreciate Ascot’s stiffer 6f more than York, and Maarek (5th) who also raced away from the main action though soft ground looks important to him. Hawkeyethenoo also ran a terrific race in fourth after enduring a troubled passage. The favourite, Mince, was disappointing back in tenth but she probably needed the run and was too fresh too early. Starspangledbanner put an end to the 13-year losing run of the market leader when winning as 13/2 joint-favourite in 2010 season and Black Caviar only just scraped home at odds of 1/6 last season so this has been a race to chance some fancy-priced horses lately as eight of the last 13 winners started at a double-figure price making this by far the hardest of the Group 1 race at the Royal Meeting. Quite why this should be the case is surprising because Group and Listed race winners with a victory earlier in the season have won 12 of the last 18 renewals. The only Group or Listed race winners this season are Society Rock, Maarek, the American raider, Havelock, and Zanetto though Gordon Lord Byron won a conditions race. It is interesting that Sir Henry Cecil believed that6fatAscotraces more like6.5fso maybe there is something in the fact that only Kingsgate Native had not previously won over6fprior to his Golden Jubilee victory since 1990. There can a huge difference between five and six furlongs at top level for many horses, as both trips have their specialists and the majority of horses more at home over the minimum trip tend to get caught out over an extra220 yardsat Group 1 standard. I wouldn’t be mad keen on a seasonal debutant as 40 years have expired since we last witnessed one of those which is against Soul who was only beaten 1¼ lengths into fourth by Black Caviar in this race last year. SHORT LIST Gordon Lord Byron Society Rock Mince Sea Siren CONCLUSION Having made the case for previous Ascot form and highlighted the fine record of the Duke Of York Stakes as a guide then SOCIETY ROCK is an obvious player having run well in this race three times and was successful on his seasonal debut at York. With more luck he could have won the last three runnings of the Diamond Jubilee as he bumped into a tartar from Australia when second at 50/1 three years ago before winning at 25/1 the following year and I think he would have beaten Black Caviar last season if he didn’t walk out of the stalls and he was only beaten two lengths. Usually he needs a run or two to put him straight for Royal Ascot but not this year as he won the Duke Of York on his seasonal debut and, in doing so, became the first winner in the history of that race to defy a Group 1 penalty in what looked an above-average renewal. His profile would suggest he will improve again now that he has had a run but I am led to believe by paddock watchers he was properly wound up for York so don’t go expecting as much improvement as usual, if any, from his run before Royal Ascot to the big day itself. All six of Society Rock’s career wins have come over this trip of 6f. The horse I like from the Duke Of York and who I was banging on about on Twitter when he was 20/1 for the Diamond Jubilee afterwards is the Irish raider, GORDON LORD BYRON. Not only because he put up a fine run from under a penalty well away from the action down the centre of the course but because his trainer commented he had left something to work on and Ascot’s stiffer 6f should suit better than York’s faster 6f given he is a Group 1 winner over 7f. At 6/1 now, he is correctly priced and rates as a big player despite his lack of Ascot form. He has run once here finishing in mid division in last season’s Wokingham but he has improved bundles since then. Maarek also ran well from away from the pace in the Duke Of York and won the big sprint here on Champions Day but unless it rains I would be worried about the ground for him and wouldn’t be surprised if they took him out on Good-to-Firm. One place ahead of Maarek at York after meeting trouble in running was Hawkeyethenoo who also has Ascot form having won the Victoria Cup in 2011 and was second to Maarek in the Group 2 here in Champions Day. With a clear passage he would have gone close to beating Society Rock at York so certainly enters the mix at a double figure price. Slade Power is considered by some to be potentially better than the King’s Stand winner Sole Power for the same owner/trainer and is a dangerous floater as his seasonal debut looked needed and he was given too much to do before running on well to be beaten half a length. MINCE was considered to be one of the potential stars of the sprinting scene this season but she has run disappointingly on both starts, notably when beaten at odds-on in a Listed race last time as her Duke Of York run was put down to not being fit enough. After her second defeat Roger Charlton commented she would miss Royal Ascot but here she is however and I think she is dangerous to rule out if bouncing back to her best under the man of the moment, James Doyle, and with an Ascot record of 2-2. The Australian mare SEA SIREN is owned by Coolmore so Ryan Moore rides and ex-Aussies for those owners have a great record at Royal Ascot with very few runners with wins for Haradasun, So You Think and also Starspangledbanner in this race. I am no expert on Australian form but having been beaten in her last six races suggests she isn’t in their very top league this season but she would have a major chance if bouncing back to her 2012 form when she won three Group 1 races and we all know about the quality of Australian sprinters who have won this race twice fairly recently. 4:25 WOKINGHAM STAKES (Handicap) The draw will be a big topic of conversation and maybe it is worth noting that in the last 25 years only six winners were drawn in the middle segment in stalls 10-19, however, Deacon Blues (went on to be Champion Sprinter so in retrospect was a good thing from any draw) and Dandy Boy both overcame that factor to win the last two renewals. On the age front, stick to four and five-year-olds that have won 12 of the last 14 runnings. A three-year-old has not won since Bel Byou triumphed in 1987 though, in fairness, they only average a couple of runners per renewal, if that, and just Glass Office takes his chance this time for the Classic generation. Looking at the older horses, although many sprinters improve as they get older, only Selhurst park flyer in 1997 has struck for horses aged over six since the race’s inception in 1896 so the elder brigade can easily be overlooked with a degree of confidence namely Royal Rock (9), Regal Parade (9), Ancient Cross (9), Hitchens (8), Palace Moon (8), Secret Witness (7) and Zero Money (7). In-form horses have very much held sway with 14 of the last 16 winners finishing in the first four last time (one of those that didn’t was Laddies Poker Two who was coming off a 610-day absence) and it has also proven wise to look to lightly-raced types as far as the current season is concerned with nine of the last 12 winners running no more than twice. With nine of the last 16 winners carrying 9st 2lbs or over, humping a biggish weight should not be seen as a negative, indeed, Baltic King won with 9st 10lbs on his back in 2006 and the top weight four years ago only found one too good beaten less than a length. Five of the last six winners were officially rated between 95-100 which I thought would be a useful angle but brings in too many this year I’m afraid from Number 14, York Glory, right down to Number 30, Jamesie. SHORT LIST Rex Imperator Gabriel’s Lad York Glory Poole Harbour Khubala CONCLUSION Trends-wise we ideally want a horse aged no older than six (no winner since 1997) but preferably four or five that finished in the first four last time out (like 14 of the last 16 winners) drawn either high or low (19 of the last 25 winners drawn between 1-9 or 20+) so take one step forward Elusivity, Mass Rally, Duke Of Firenze, York Glory, Rex Imperator, Khubala, Gabriel’s Lad and Poole Harbour. If you just want trends to chop that down to five horses then take the last-named quintet as they are officially rated between 95-100 like five of the last six winners. REX IMPERATOR would be my main fancy for William Haggas who does so well in top handicaps and won this race with Yeast and he would have won on his first start for the yard since moving from David Nicholls if held onto for longer at Doncaster over 7f when an unfancied 28/1 shot but he moved so smoothly he found himself in front too soon and found one to beat him. Back to 6f here should be a help on that evidence and his trainer has commented he will be delivered late. GABRIEL’S LAD has two other factors going for him in addition to meeting the key trends in that he is a course and distance winner and he has only had one start this season as nine of the last 12 winners had run no more twice earlier in the campaign (a stat that is also a positive for Rex Imperator). Gabriel’s Lad sole outing this season was a fine one finishing second in a warm handicap at the Newmarket Guineas Meeting when well backed in the morning and if he is drawn on what turns out to be the right side (far side along with Rex Imperator and York Glory), he is a serious player. Just behind Gabriel’s Lad in that Newmarket handicap was POOLE HARBOUR for Richard Hannon who is due a slice of luck this week after the first three days and I like his each-way chances most of the 25/1+ shots drawn low having been toughened up since a gelding operation. Second or third on all four starts this season, he should run his race again and was a good third behind KHUBALA last time out. That victory for Khubala in what was a competitive sprint handicap at Windsor gives him a 5lbs penalty to get in the Wokingham on Good-to-Firm that was considered faster than ideal so his chance would increase if it rains a little more and if the overnight watering on Thursday has had a notable impact. YORK GLORY has had more runs this season than most Wokingham winners but has yet to run a bad race so an each-way case can be argued for him. After he won at Pontefract in April, Kevin Ryan commented he could be a Wokingham horse and they have turned to Jamie Spencer who rides the straight course at Ascot so well. 5:00 DUKE OF EDINBURGH HANDICAP Last-time-out winners hold the call having been responsible for half of the last 18 winners which is an excellent return given they supply, on average, around 25% of the total runners so that’s an immediate tick for the French raider Hammerfest representing John Hammond who does well with his British raids, Rye House for Sir Michael Stoute who was a convincing winner at the Dante Meeting, Deia Sunrise who will do well to win on his seasonal debut in a race as competitive as this, Highland Castle who pounced late at Newmarket two weeks ago, Ustura who got home by a nose at Windsor for Godolphin and Mark Johnston’s Fennell Bay who gets in off bottom weight under his 4lbs penalty for winning at Thirsk four days ago and who won the King George V Handicap at this meeting last season just five days after winning at Sandown so is likely to ready again to strike whilst the iron is hot. Up until 2006 the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes had been a punter’s handicap with 14 consecutive winners going the way of a contender from the front six in the betting but it has got tricky lately as four of the last seven winners have started at 12/1+. The favourite, however, did come out on top last season for only the second time in two decades. Maybe look to those hunting up the market leader, notably the second, third and fourth favourites that have won 11 of the last 18 runnings. Just two horses older than five have been successful in the last 24 years which is enough to put me off Hanoverian Baron (8), Hammerfest (6), Art Scholar (6) and Beaumont’s Party (6). It is the four-year-olds that hold the edge over five-year-olds in terms of winners but they have a very similar strike rate as they outnumber their rivals so there is no real edge picking between the pair. Weight stats have been largely irrelevant now the handicap is much more condensed. Fox Hunt gave Mark Johnston his third Duke Of Edinburgh winner two years ago following on from previous triumphs in 2001 and four years ago where he also supplied the runner-up for good measure so his Fennell Bay is worthy of a second name check and he also runs Sir Graham Wade. Sir Michael Stoute has saddled four winners and three seconds from his last 14 runners so Rye House (Ryan Moore) and Opinion (Richard Hughes) are also worth a second look. SHORT LIST Fennell Bay Ustura Rye House Highland Castle CONCLUSION FENNELL BAY won at Royal Ascot last season just five days after winning at Sandown so his win at Thirsk four days will spark plenty of interest in his chances of doing likewise over the same 1m4f trip as his gutsy King George V Stakes success as that win and the resulting penalty was enough to see him squeeze in as the bottom weight for Mark Johnston who has won this handicap three times before. RYE HOUSE is the likely favourite for Sir Michael Stoute whose Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap record is also far from shabby with four wins and three seconds from his last 14 runners. Although he has been raised 9lbs for his easy win at the Dante Meeting by 3½ lengths on soft ground (five of his six runs have been on soft going but he was only beaten a head on only run on better surface), he won with so much authority that he is probably still ahead of the Handicapper and Moore prefers him to his stablemate, Opinion, who has chances himself on his close-up third in a good handicap at Newmarket on his seasonal return. Sticking with the last-time-out winners given their 50% strike rate in the last 18 years and USTURA is interesting for Godolphin. He may have only scraped home by a nose on his seasonal return but he met trouble in running so can be marked up and that was just his fourth start so he is open to more improvement than most and he has only gone up 4lbs. Described the yard’s Travelling Head Lad as “a weak and immature horse” last year who is a late developer and wants Good ground, he has to be shortlist material. HIGHLAND CASTLE received a terrific hold-up ride from Liam Keniry to win at Newmarket last time by a neck so has only gone up 5lbs which also means we need to take his chance seriously. Previously last of five in a Listed race but he appeals as a horse to appreciate coming off a strong pace in a big handicap than contesting better-class tactical races in small fields and David Elsworth has always held a high view of him even trying his luck in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup two seasons ago. 5:35 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES The first point to make is this year’s renewal lacks real depth outside of last season’s runner-up, Shahwardi, for the French-based stable of Alan de Royer-Dupre. A quality piece of form on the course beforehand has been useful so do bear in mind that 12 of the last 20 winners had finished in the top half-dozen in any of the three big staying races at the meeting before (Gold Cup, Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes). Shahwardi was second beaten seven lengths by Simenon in this race last year with Seaside Sizzler, Riptide and Cloudy Spirit back in sixth, seventh and thirteenth, American Spin was fifth in this race four years ago and is blinkered for the first time, Junior won the Ascot Stakes three years ago and was pulled out of that same race on the day on Tuesday but has looked far from in love with racing over jumps in the winter and Yazdi was seventh in last season’s Queen’s Vase. Given its extreme distance for a Flat race of 2m5½f, very few runners truly stay the Queen Alexandra Stakes so it is generally uncompetitive and therefore offers the punter a real chance of finishing the meeting on a high so fancied horses usually come to the fore and 18 of the last 22 winners started at no bigger than 8/1. Simenon easily justified favouritism last season having won the Ascot Stakes on the opening day of the meeting continuing the strong performance of the leading fancies as the first two in the market filled the first two positions the previous season and, prior to 2010, the previous three runnings witnessed the first four home start in the first five in the betting, the favourite beat the third-favourite and the 1-2-3 in the betting occupying all three place positions so don’t go looking too far beyond the obvious. As this is a Class 2 affair, it is not the classiest event at the Royal Meeting but what has been noticeable of late is that winners had been regularly contesting higher-quality races, in fact, 11 of the last 18 winners had been contesting Group and Listed races at some point in their career. SHORT LIST Shahwardi Cul Baire CONCLUSION Last year’s runner-up SHAHWARDI is comfortably clear on ratings in, quite frankly, a bad renewal and he should hose up if in the same form that saw him run Simenon to seven lengths in last year’s race. The very, very slight niggle is that he is a seven-year-old and horses aged seven and older failed to register a win since 1990 until Caracciola won as 12-year-old four years ago but (a) he is rated as much 7lbs clear of the Chiberta King (second top rated), (b) we know he stays which is ultra critical and © being English-owned despite being trained in France, you can bet your bottom dollar he has been solely trained for this race having finished second last year and his owner clearly fancies a fairytale as Frankie Dettori has been booked for the first time, which is a strong combination to offset his age, though he is hardly ancient. Since then he has finished third in two Group 2 races in France and even won a £100K handicap in Australia! His only run this season was a last-of-six effort 27 days ago which rather smacked as a get-him-back-on-the-racecourse exercise to blow away the cobwebs in a bid to go one better in the Queen Alexandra Stakes than last year. CUL BAIRE could be the fly in the ointment for Jim Bolger. More of a gut instinct shortlist selection as on form he has 12lbs to find with the second top-rated Chiberta King (beaten 3¾ lengths into fifth in the Goodwood Cup last season) but the very fact alone that Bolger fancies a crack is of much interest and he arrives here off the back of a win over 1m6f at Leopardstown last time out. He is entered in the July Sales at Newmarket so perhaps they see this as a shop window to sell him with a view to going hurdling in which case they would have to fancy him to run a big race to get the asking price up. No Heretic was well punted for a good handicap at 1m4f last time and finished well to be beaten half a length but he was keen early which would be worry over an extra mile.

[Royal Ascot Day 2 ~ Wednesday]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 2 ~ Wednesday 2:30 JERSEY STAKES Usually a race for up-and-coming three-year-olds rather than Group-race winners but last year’s winner had finished second in the Irish 1000 Guineas on her previous start and, 12 months earlier, a previous Group race winner under a penalty came out on top in the shape of Strong Suit, the first to do so for 25 years. Group race winners up against it trying to defy a penalty this year are Blaine who has run two poor races since winning the Gimcrack, Pearl Flute who was only 14th in the French 2000 Guineas before causing a 27/1 surprise in a Group 3 at Longchamp on soft ground but showed a smart turn of foot and Tawhid who only runs if the ground doesn’t turn soft who won the Horris Hill Stakes on heavy ground but was last of four in the Craven. History is against that trio big time. Listed race winners are unpenalised however and have a good record and have been successful four times in the last eight years. Listed race winners are Garswood, Gale Force Ten, Montiridge, Mutin, Ninjago, The Brothers War and Well Acquainted. It is not uncommon that horses which failed to stay a mile in either of a version of any 2000 Guineas drop back in trip to win here four have successfully done so in the last 19 years plus Ishvana was second in the Irish 1000 Guineas before taking this prize. The pair that head the market both ran in a Guineas as Gale Force Ten was a never-nearer second to Magician in the Irish 2000 Guineas having previously been beaten less than a length into fourth in the French 2000 Guineas where a blanket covered most of the field and Garswood could never get in the 2000 Guineas where he finished seventh (with Don’t Bother Me back in tenth) having won the European Free Handicap in some style on his previous start. The Irish 2000 Guineas was a funny race with Trading Leather (third and won since) going one hell of a gallop so little got in it and it could just be Gale Force Ten, who ran through beaten horses from the rear, picked up the pieces for second, in which case then 7/2 would be short enough in a 21-runner contest here. He clearly stays a mile well though so a drop to 7f isn’t sure to suit whereas I feel Garswood would be much more back at home returning to 7f so I prefer him of the two market leaders. By far the best recent guide has been the King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket with Jeremy and Tariq following up their successes in that Listed race here in 2006 and 2007. In fact, during the last 13 years, two more Jersey Stakes winners in Membership and Observatory also finished second in that Listed race immediately prior to winning here plus horses to finish in the first two in the last three runnings of that King Charles II Stakes have gone on to place here. This season’s King Charles II Stakes 1-2-3-4 were Dundonnell, Music Master, Baltic Knight and Well Acquainted. The winner and third don’t run but Mister Music takes his chance as does Well Acquainted having since won a Listed race at Epsom. Regards last-time-out maiden winners, they endured a terrible run after Zilzal won in 1989 not winning again since Aqlaam in 2008 but Rainfall made it two wins in the last four years for horses with such a profile so they are no longer on the ‘get shot of’ list. Ian’s Dream is the only horse with such a profile this season when he broke his maiden tag at the fifth time of asking last time out (best run as a two-year was at this meeting in the Norfolk Stakes when beaten 1½ lengths by Reckless Abandon) and he is trained by Jeremy Noseda whose Proclamation won in 2005 following on from Just James in 2002 and he has had three others placed, two of which at big prices since the first of those victories. Of the last 14 winners, eight won on their most recent outing. Last time out winners are Pearl Flute, Ajraam, Ian’s Dream, Montiridge, Well Aquainted and the Jean-Claude Rouget trained pair of Mutin (looks the stable pick with Soumillion riding and is unbeaten in four starts) and The Brothers Way (though Peslier isn’t bad booking ether!). The French don’t really target this race so don’t be put off by their lack of success. Frankie Dettori rides another French challenger in Complimentor but his form would not be as strong as that of the other three which also includes Pearl Flute (Jamie Spencer rides as Qatar Racing Limited owned). SHORT LIST Garswood Montiridge Mutin Music Master CONCLUSION Wow this is a competitive Group 3 race which has the added and unusual spice of four French-trained contenders this season and I would prefer to ally myself to unpenalised Listed race winners in the main like four of the last eight victors. That basically means those towards the head of the market but I am happy enough to leave out Gale Force Ten on pure value grounds as 7/2 looks tight enough for me for a horse I am unconvinced will improve for dropping back to 7f and could have been a little bit flattered in the Irish 2000 Guineas running into second from the rear off a mad man’s gallop. Garswood and Montiridge appeal most of the British contenders. GARSWOOD’s chance is obvious as he was impressive over this trip in the Free Handicap (a handicap but still a Listed race) but couldn’t get into a furiously-run 2000 Guineas and looks like he will enjoy dropping back a furlong and Tony Hamilton’s services have been replaced by those of Pat Smullen’s. Recent reports that this is the best horse Richard Fahey thinks he has ever trained (and they came after his 2000 Guineas disappointment) can only increase hopes he can return to winning ways. MONTIRIDGE represents Richard Hannon who won this race twice in 1990s and there was plenty to like about his success at Sandown last time over a mile. Dropping back 1f gives slight cause for concern as Sandown’s is a stiff mile but he strung them out easily making all so a positive ride over this shorter trip makes him an obvious contender. MUTIN is 4-4 and looks the trainer’s number one hope over fellow Listed race last-time-out winner, The Brothers War. His last two wins have been on heavy ground and his last three wins over a mile so dropping back to 7f is also a slight niggle with him. He races in the colours of Hamdan al Maktoum but Christophe Soumillon keeps the ride with Paul Hanagan aboard the also-unbeaten Ajraam for Charles Hills. I wouldn’t like to say for certain but I expect the Hanagan arrangement for Hamdan horses is for British-trained horses so I wouldn’t read much into that if anything at all. I will also throw MUSIC MASTER into the mix as his second place in the best historical guide, the King Charles II Stakes, reads well with the form working out and that was just his third career start so more improvement is likely (and necessary) and he looks best of the 20/1+ shots for each-way purposes. That said, Ninjago’s turn of foot when successful here earlier in the season really impressed me but he has been beaten since when third at Evens in a Newbury Listed race and Hughes prefers Montiridge. Back to Ascot though, I can see returning to form under Jimmy Fortune and outrun odds of around 33/1. 3.05 DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES Known as the Windsor Forest Stakes up until this season’s change of identity, this Group 2 affair for older fillies and mares over the straight mile has been run on nine occasions having previously been a Listed race at the September Meeting but some strong patterns have emerged since its upgrade. Sadly there are no Group 1 winners running under a penalty to take on but Duntle has escaped that penalty as she won the Group 1 Matron Stakes last season only to be disqualified so she is running off a 5lbs lower mark than would have been the case had she kept the race in the stewards’ room. The best guide has been the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom won this season by Thistle Bird. Somewhat oddly, however, the three recent winners to emerge from that race were all beaten at Epsom whereas three of the six winners of that Group 3 event to run here went on to be placed. That said, I think it is asking a lot of Beatrice Aurore, who finished last of nine, to turn that form around and go and win no matter how much she may have need the run. Thistle Bird, however, is a model of consistency and has won her only start at Ascot so I find it hard not seeing her run her race and finish on the premises and has a similar form chance to the better-fancied (according to the market) Chigun as she only a neck adrift of her last autumn. The Group 3 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket won by Dank by a short-head from Chigun with Thistle Bird back in third is also worthy of considerable respect as the last four winners to run in the Windsor Forest Stakes have produced a winner and two seconds. Like all of Roger Charlton’s horses at the time, Thistle Bird needed the run so don’t take her running at face value. Dank just nailed Chigun on the line reversing form with the runner-up and second from the autumn and is 3lbs better off with Chigun who has since won a Group 3 with ease at The Curragh and has been supplemented to take her chance. Dank was strongest at the finish in that 1m1f race suggesting maybe a raise to 1m2f would be more in her favour than a drop to this albeit stiff mile though. Of the eight winners when this race was run at Ascot (the 2005 running was at York), four had previously recorded a victory at the course and another two had been placed at the previous year’s Royal Meeting so quality course form is certainly a bonus. Duntle, Dank and Chigun are all course and distance winners (the first-named at Royal Ascot last year) and Thistle Bird and Intense Pink have also won at Ascot over another trip. Sir Michael Stoute won the first two runnings and then added a third success with Strawberrydaquiri in 2010 in addition to supplying three other second-place finishes so this is a race he targets and his Dank will be a leading player after her Dahlia Stakes success. Four-year-olds have had the best of it leading their older rivals 7-2 but they have held a numerical advantage making up approximately three-quarters of the total runners so don’t read too much into the fact. Peeress was a surprise 14/1 winner eight years ago when the meeting was switched to York but the Ascot runnings have pretty much gone to form with the favourite or second-favourite winning five of the eight renewals, positions in the market currently held by Duntle and Chigun with Dank a close-up third-favourite. The French are not to be underestimated having supplied the winner five years ago plus the second and third the previous year and Alain De Royer-Dupre sends over Sarkiyla. It was Royer-Dupre that successfully raided the prize five years ago with Sabana Perdida so we have to take this challenge seriously despite a lack of a victory for Sarkiyla in her last five starts. That said, she is a consistent filly and her fourth to the top class Soft Falling Rain on her synthetics debut and first run in five starts reads well and she has since only narrowly been beaten by Don Bosco in a Group 2 and now returns to taking on fellow fillies and mares again. SHORT LIST DUNTLE DANK THISTLE BIRD CONCLUSION I fancy DUNTLE to give one of the two market leaders another win in this race. The winner of last season’s Sandringham Handicap at this meeting, she has gone from strength to strength since passing the post in front on her next three starts but was controversially disqualified on one of those occasions when finishing ahead of Chachamaidee in the Group 1 Matron Stakes. That DQ however means she is effectively a Group 1 winner that is not saddled with a 5lbs Group 1 penalty. She was expected to need her seasonal debut but proved too good anyway for her rivals (though at 8/13 she was a class above them) and David Wachman has a good Royal Ascot record from his few runners at the meeting. Trends followers will be keener on DANK attempting to give Sir Michael Stoute a fourth win in this race in just ten years especially having won one of the main two guides. The niggle for me is dropping down 1f and she only just got up on the line over 1m1f last time from Chigun though the probability is that she needed the run. Back in third was THISTLE BIRD who certainly needed the run and has since won the best guide to this race in its short existence so far. At a top price of 13/2 she has a real good each-way bet look about her having also won her only start at Ascot and her general consistency. Sarkiyla deserves respect on connections alone but no wins in her last five starts suggest that she will come up short again at this level against fillies primed for this day. In summary, Duntle appeals as the most likely winner but if 5/2 isn’t for you then Thistle Bird appeals as the each-way alternative and, if you love trends, then Dank is your filly 3:45 PRINCE OF WALES’S STAKES Since this race was upgraded to Group 1 status in 2000, few races in the world can match its Roll Of Honour so let’s only look to absolute top notchers. Just one of the 13 winners since the upgrade had failed to win a Group 1 beforehand (Byword) so purely concentrate on such runners which are the front four in the market; Al Kazeem (Tattersalls Gold Cup), Camelot (Racing Post Trophy, 2000 Guineas, Derby, Irish Derby), Maxios (Prix D’Ispahan), The Fugue (Nassau) and Red Cadeaux (Hong Kong Vase). The front four in the market has certainly been the way to go down the years striking on 23 occasions in the last 26 years which is another reason why we shouldn’t be looking too far away from the obvious and, even more significantly, since its promotion to a Grade 1 contest, all 13 winners started at no bigger than 8/1. It will be interesting to see if the public money comes for Camelot being last season’s Derby winner but he was beaten fair and square by Al Kazeem in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, a race that has fared well of late with its last six winners to take their chance here notching up three wins, two seconds and a third. Camelot was sent off at 4/11 to defeat Al Kazeem on that occasion but with Roger Charlton’s improving five-year-old winning by a cosy 1½ lengths, that only strengthened the view that despite all the hype about him being the best Ballydoyle have ever trained he was winning poor Classics last season and also strengthened the view that Al Kazeem is going from strength to strength and now beginning to fulfil his potential having been restricted to one run (and impressive win) as a four-year-old. I see no reason at all why Camelot should reverse placings. The Prix Ganay won by the German-trained Pastorius beating Maxios and Dunaden looked a little below par but is also much respected as the last four winners to take their chance here have recorded two wins, a second and a fourth. There is no Pastorius in today’s line, or Dunaden, but Maxios takes his chance having since added the Prix D’Ispahan over 1m1f where he beat the exposed Planteur by half a length. I think he needs to improve again at the age of five but the French have a very good record of late winning three times in the last seven years courtesy of Manduro, Vision D’Etait and Byword. The Fugue will be bidding to emulate Rakti in 2004 by winning on her seasonal debut and Ouija Board two years later who was the last successful filly. It will take a career best performance by a good way for her to win here and especially first time out so I have to question a little whether John Gosden has her absolutely cherry ripe or whether this is as good a race as any to start her back with a view to taking on her own sex again in races like the Nassau and Yorkshire Oaks. Many will see her as an each-way play however as this is not the strongest Prince Of Wales’s Stakes that has ever been run. With regards to recent form, with 11 of the last 16 winning so don’t go supporting a horse with something to prove regarding current wellbeing. Godolphin traditionally run their best 1m2f horse in this race but not this year where they are so weak they rely on Saint Baudoino who was runner-up in last season’s French Derby when trained by Andre Fabre but only fourth behind Hunters Light on his only run for Saeed Bin Suroor in a Group 2 in Dubai. just one of the last 15 winners failed to make the first three last time out which is a stat also against Side Glance and Red Cadeaux. Following three wins on the spin between 2000-2002, Godolphin have struggled in this race despite sending out three big guns in the shape of Electrocutionionst, Moon Ballad and Sulamani. Their Rewilding changed all that again two years ago when turning over the long odds-on So You Think two years ago. The Arlington Million runner-up, Afsare, proved troublesome entering the stalls before his fine run but refused to enter them at all for his proposed seasonal debut so he has temperament questions to answer and I get the feeling Luca Cumani is running him as is desperate to get a run into him before more realistic targets. The globetrotting seven-year-old, Red Cadeaux, will surely find 1m2f too sharp. SHORT LIST Al Kazeem Maxios CONCLUSION It is hard to make a good case for anything outside of the first four in the betting and, of the big four, I feel it is asking a lot of a filly to win first time out taking on the boys at this level that also has something to find on pure form so I am happy to let The Fugue go (for win-only purposes) and I take the view is Camelot has been plain over-rated all his career so I am happy to rely on his conqueror at The Curragh, Al Kazeem, and the French raider, Maxios, in a race where French-trained horses have over-performed of late winning three of the last seven runnings. AL KAZEEM has progressed into a proper horse this season and would be my main pick. He has really developed into an imposing-looking specimen who will take the beating in all the Group 1 races over 1m2f this season with the Arc also on his agenda. On official figures Maxios is just his superior but is a 2½ times a bigger price. To be honest, I am more interested in his Prix Ganay second to the high class Pastorius two starts back than his subsequent defeat of Planteur in the Prix D’Ispahan and he has left his previous form behind as a five-year-old this campaign, so like Al Kazeem, he is a late flourisher. A solid form-based case can easily be argued for Maxios at a top price of 11/2 if you don’t fancy the 2/1 about Al Kazeem. 4:25 ROYAL HUNT CUP Four and five-year-olds make up the lion’s share of runners (usually around 75% but more last year) but given they have won 24 of the last 27 runnings, they are still over-performing by quite a margin so I am more than happy to overlook any horse aged six and upwards as my first starting point so Sweet Lightning, Premio Loco, Don’t Call Me, Navajo Chief, Saintefisio, Prince Of Johanne, Directorship, Field Of Dream, Excellent Guest, Global Village, Toto Skyllachy, Spa’s Dancer and Moran Gra are not for me. Admittedly, that line of thinking cost me last year as Prince Of Johanne took the honours at the age of six when winning from stall 33 (the closest to the stands’ rail). With regards to the draw, what happens earlier in the week is usually the best guide with regards to the straight course. It would appear, however, that a draw close to either rail is an advantage as 11 of the last 16 winners were drawn no more than six places away from a rail.Prince Of Johanne did, however, become the eleventh winner in the last 14 years to have won or finished second earlier in the campaign which is a stat against the likes of Premio Loco, Sandagyr, David Livingston, Fury, Santefisio, Burwaaz, Fire Ship, Field Of Dream, Arsaadi, Redact and Moran Gra. There are also three seasonal debutants and, to be honest, I gave up looking back how far the last time one of those won the Hunt Cup as it was so long so it will take some training effort if the Trade Commissioner or Winter’s Night can win. Heaven only knows, however, if the Japanese-trained Elusive Time has been thrown in or not by the British Handicapper on his seasonal debut as he must be taking a guess of sorts especially as he has won his last four races so might keep more back than we know, in which case, a lack of a run for 283 days may not be so difficult to overcome if the Handicapper has got it plain wrong. Previous straight-course form at Ascot has proved to be an important factor in recent times (and particularly so in Ascot straight-course races in general since the track was relayed in 2005) and no race more so than the Victoria Cup. This valuable 7f handicap in its own right has provided an ideal springboard for seven of the last 18 Hunt Cup winners and was won by last season’s Hunt Cup runner-up, Excellent Guest, but the weights stats are largely irrelevant these days. Invisible Man overcame many patterns to spring a 28/1 surprise aided by his first-time blinkers three years ago but the Royal Hunt Cup is one of the more punter-friendly big handicaps of the season as exactly 50% of the runnings since 1994 have gone the way of a horse in the first four in the betting. No mean feat given that around 30 runners face the starter. SHORT LIST Two For Two Stirring Ballad Elusive Time Educate Field Of Dream CONCLUSION We’ll start with the obvious as STIRRING BALLAD heads the market for Andrew Balding and Richard Hughes from her low draw. Unlucky not to win a Listed race at Goodwood last time where she had to sit and suffer for a while in the race won by Burke’s Rock, she also gives the impression that a race run at an end-to-end gallop, unlike that smallish-field affair at Goodwood , will be right up her street. Of those drawn in highest six stalls, TWO FOR TWO makes most appeal for the David O’Meara stable chasing what would be I am sure the first of many Royal Ascot winners in years to come. A close up fourth in a Listed handicap at York on his latest start at the Dante Meeting, he stayed on well towards the finish suggesting that this stiffer mile would be more in his favour. Trained in France last season, he was snapped up for just 11,000 euros and has caught the eye on all four starts for O’Meara since including a win at Ripon to the extent that he is now a 100-rated horse demonstrating his handler’s superb talents. It’s a flier I grant you but I am going to chance ELUSIVE DREAM in the shortlist simply because I have no idea how well handicapped he could be so 33/1 has to be worth a small dabble on that basis alone and he is not travelling over from Japan for nothing. I do like following Japanese horses in Europe anyway so I am also swayed by that and regardless of where a horse is racing, to have won 13 of your 21 career starts tells us the horse has more than its share of willing attitude. EDUCATE is another contender with an impressive strike rate winning half of his ten starts including four of his last five. Jamie Spencer is unbeaten on him in two starts and rides again and we all know how good he can be on the straight course at Ascot in big fields when he times it right. His latest win was beating Sheikhzayeroad who has since won a hot handicap on Derby Day so he could easily still be ahead of the Handicapper. The last shortlisted contender despite some average form figures this season is FIELD OF DREAM as he loves Ascot. Fourth in this race last season beaten 1½ lengths (he is off only a 1lb higher mark this year) and then he won the big 7f here on King George day. If Jamie Osborne has been keen to get his handicap mark down this season for these two big handicaps again, he has succeeded but he has been shaping okay in some of his races this season and I expect Ascot to set him alight again so he makes some each-way appeal at 33/1. 5:00 QUEEN MARY STAKES As many as 24 fillies have been declared for the Queen Mary Stakes. Maqaasid won three years ago off the back of winning her only start but the previous seven winners plus the two subsequent winners had all ran at least twice beforehand in contrast to the Coventry Stakes where nine winners in the last 20 years had won their only start so experience has counted. On that basis, I would rather be against the once-raced contenders; Fast, Baytown Kestrel, Kaiulani, Fire Blaze and Reroute even if they did win their sole start. Up until 2006 it was a case of follow the unbeaten fillies as six on the spin had proven successful but five of the subsequent seven winners had tasted defeat earlier in the season including last year’s surprise 20/1 winner Ceiling Kitty. Perhaps with the emergence of the Albany Stakes, that 6f race is taking away some of the real class fillies that would have otherwise been aimed here? Entering the race unbeaten or otherwise, what is crucial however is a last-time-out victory which has been the case for 12 of the last 13 winners so I can’ back back Blith Spirit, Corncockle, Diamond Lady, Fig Roll, Go Glamourous, Lorimer’s Lot, Oriel, Quatuor, Robynelle or Sweet Emma Rose. The Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley has lost its way as a Queen Mary guide since Attraction won what was then a Listed race (demoted to a conditions race these days) ten years ago and the National Stakes (Listed) at Sandown, a race in which fillies traditionally fare well and was won by another filly in Rizeena this season, was a terrific guide in the 1990s with five Queen Mary Stakes winners contesting that event but it has gone mighty quiet since then. However, the Marygate Stakes (Listed) at York’s Dante Meeting won in very taking fashion by the well-backed Beldale Memory (had Quatuor and Blith Spirit back in fifth and sixth) has been the best recent guide with Gilded (2006) and Ceiling Kitty (2012) completing the double and two more Marygate winners finished second and third in between. Richard Hannon was winning his fifth Queen Mary two years ago when Best Terms emerged on top so clearly his ammunition has to be respected and he saddles Oriel, Fast, Fig Roll and Corncockle. Jockey bookings suggest Oriel is the pick and Hughes will be keen to put right the pig’s ear he made of her last run when failing to get a run in a five-runner race at Newbury have been sent off at odds-on when trying to teach her how to race. I think it is significant he rides her and not Fast who looked well named when she scooted up at Chepstow but just one run worries me about her chance. Mick Channon’s record with juveniles at Royal Ascot passes the closest scrutiny and he has won the Queen Mary with Bint Allayl (1998), Queen’s Logic (2001) and Flashy Wings (2005) and all three went on to win the Lowther Stakes and end up the season’s champion two-year-old filly. In fact, his last 12 runners have produced three winners a second, third and fourth. This season he relies on Kaiulani who won well on her only start at Leicester but I do prefer more experience for a race like this. The Irish were responsible for the winner and third in 2007, the runner-up in 2010 in addition to the 2004 winner so have a decent record and Aidan O’Brien’s Bye Bye Birdie is their sole runner. She got off the mark at the third time of asking just three days ago so this looks like an afterthought. Wesley Ward sent Jealous Again over in 2009 for a famous win for America and he runs Sweet Emma Rose. Being drawn 1 might have been a problem for other horses but if she is just going to blast it then it may not be a problem for her but she does have to bounce back from finishing fourth of six at odds of 2/5 last time and the stable seem keener on their other two-year-olds this week. SHORT LIST Beldale Memory Rizeena Survived CONCLUSION In a nutshell, I want a last-time-out winner with more experience than just one start for a race with so many runners where they will blast it from start to finish of which there are nine qualifiers but Beldale Memory and Rizeena stand out having both won Listed races last time out in some style. The Clive Cox-trained BELDALE MEMORY won the Marygate Stakes which has been the best guide of late and was very well backed all morning to do so. It was the professional manner of her victory that impressed most and the fact that even this early in her career she was ridden like an older horse rather than a precocious type in that a race can be ridden in her rather than just using pure speed was notable. As much as I like Rizeena, I do think Beldale Memory is the correct favourite but which is the better value is trickier as Clive Brittain’s filly is twice the price at 7/1. RIZEENA won the other notable Queen Mary guide down the years beating the boys in the National Stakes where I loved the way she stretched in the final furlong. That suggested she would be even better at 6f but this stiff 5f is fine as she showed when beating Oriel comfortably here in May (though Oriel was having her debut unlike Rizeena and Hughes was easy on Oriel when beaten) but I do get the feeling she would be in the Albany Stakes if Sandiva was not laying in wait for her there. Brittain is convinced Rizeena is as good as her 1000 Guineas and Irish 1000 Guineas winners, Sayyedati and Crimplene, (though he stopped short of Pebbles thank goodness) and although he tilts at windmills plenty, he is usually right when he says he has a very good one. SURVIVED is also a last-time-out winner doing the job nicely at Lingfield improving for her debut experience. She will need to step up on that level of form but is entitled to take her chance and I prefer her most of the other seven last-time-out winners with more than one run to their name. Bye Bye Birdie’s form gives her a place chance, even in her defeats, but winning a Royal Ascot 2yo race three days ago is not the kind of profile that appeals to me. In summary, I do like the pair that head the market here and couldn’t put anyone off dutching stakes between Beldale Memory and Rizeena. 5:35 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP This Listed handicap for three-year-old fillies has attracted a huge field of 26 this year so the best of luck. However, only two of the last 18 winners could not be found in the front half-dozen in the market and winning form earlier in the season has been a factor with 13 of the last 17 winners visiting the Winner’s Enclosure at some point and one of those not to score earlier in the campaign was having her seasonal debut so that looks like a combination to look at closely. The market currently has Woodland Aria favourite over Mango Diva, Hint Of A Tint, Zurigha, Bracing Breeze and Fleeting Smile (though it is tight after the front two and any of another half dozen could be supported into a top-six market position) of which Hint Of A Tint and Bracing Breeze have not won this season. It has been part of Royal Ascot since 2002 but isn’t that strong a stats race though it is a good idea to look at later developers as ten winners since 1995 started the season as a maiden. Last-time-out maiden winners should be treated with some scepticism with the last such winner being back in 2000. Stresa is the only last-time-out maiden winner in this year’s line up. Nine of the last 17 winners struck last time out but not the last three winners however though Timepiece (2010) can be forgiven as she was previously seen finishing in mid-division in the Oaks. The Nell Gwyn Stakes has been a good guide as three fairly recent winners ran creditably in that 1000 Guineas trial where they finished between third and fifth. Waterway Run finished fifth this season in what was a very warm running behind Hot Snap and Sky Lantern where she had Sorella Bella back in ninth and Nargys was last of 14. Waterway Run then ran a highly creditable sixth in the French 1000 Guineas. Like so many handicaps at the Royal Meeting, John Gosden figures prominently and six of his last 13 runners made the frame (Cask justified co-favouritism for him in 1995) and he runs the likely favourite, Woodland Aria, in addition to Trapeze and Stresa. SHORT LIST Mango Diva Woodland Aria Auction Waterway Run CONCLUSION With fillies in the top six in the betting faring so well and being trained by John Gosden and also a last-time-out winner then WOODLAND ARIA ticks a lot of boxes so it is a question of whether around 5/1 floats your boat or not in a 26-runner fillies’ handicap. She made a big move 3f out in the Musidora Stakes on her second start before not staying 1m2f and won snugly at odds-on at Leicester next time when dropping down to a mile and she has to be open to plenty more improvement on just her fourth start. That same last comment also applies to the Sir Michael Stoute-trained MANGO DIVA though, unlike Woodland Aria, she did see a racecourse as a two-year-old. Successful in a maiden on her seasonal return beating Stresa, that proved to be an easier task than when second to Hot Snap on her debut so no disgrace there and she then may have bumped into another very smart sort taking on the boys when second to the Jersey Stakes fancy, Montiridge, in a Listed race next time out. At around twice the price of Woodland Aria she looks better value. Richard Hannon’s pair of Zurigha and Fleeting Style are also worthy of respect. Hughes rides Zurigha but as Fleeting Style is owned by Paul Hanagan’s retained owner, nothing should be read into that. However, I do like the angle of being a maiden at the start of the season of which neither were so the bottom weight AUCTION makes appeal who could sneak into a top-six market position. She has won all three starts this season after three defeats in maidens last year (two of were won by Oaks runners) and is trained by Ed Dunlop who has the midas touch with fillies and has won this race twice before. Although WATERWAY RUN doesn’t fit the maiden-last-season profile I like the fact she was fifth in a hot Nell Gwynn and three other top-five finishers in that race have gone on to win this race fairly recently and she then ran another fine race when beaten 5 ½ lengths in the French 1000 Guineas. It is also fair to say after his Oaks 1-2 that Ralph Beckett is also a dab hand with fillies and would have a better line than most this season.

[Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 2:30 QUEEN ANNE STAKES It is fair to say that we have been royally spoilt in the last three years with Goldikova successful in 2010 before Canford Cliffs took her measure 12 months later and then Frankel putting up the best performance that I have ever seen over a mile in last season’s race so Animal Kingdom and Co have a lot to live up to kick Royal Ascot off to the best possible start. And the key to the race is clearly whether Animal Kingdom’s superior ability to his rivals can overcome the alien conditions he faces here tackling a straight mile on turf when he is at home over a turning 1m2f on dirt or a synthetic surface? A Kentucky Derby and Dubai World Cup winner he may be, whereas it can be argued the only genuine Group 1 horse (so far) he faces here is Elusive Kate, so raw ability should be enough as his odds-on quotes suggests, but we only need to cast our minds back a year to Black Caviar scraping home at odds of 1/6 having come from the other side of the world to understand that this is anything but a penalty kick for Animal Kingdom who is having the final race of his career. Would he be running here if he was continue with his racing career I ask myself? I want to take him on at odds-on and if Farhh was running rather than laid up in his box with a small setback, I would be all over the Lockinge winner here but, sadly, he is not and Animal Kingdom’s opposition is not in Farhh’s class. Backing something each-way against Animal Kingdom looks the most sensible option as we still make a profit if the American-trained horse is too good (he is 10lbs clear on official ratings of Elusive Kate)and we hit the frame but also knowing we have a real chance of picking up the main prize if the odds-on favourite simply finds a straight mile on turf his undoing and drawing stall 13 of the 13 could certainly have also been better. He is also a five-year-old and 17 of the last 21 runnings have been won by a four-year-old. You may also want to consider Paddy Power’s offer of your stake back (on win bets up to a certain stake) if Animal Kingdom wins, which is a fine concession. Since the Queen Anne was upgraded to Grade 1 status, only one of the ten winners had not won at the highest level or started at bigger than 13/2. The key guide has unquestionably been the Lockinge Stakes featuring as many as 18 of the last 32 winners which is a fantastic return. Unfortunately this season’s impressive winner, Farhh, is injured so he can’t bid to make it three wins in as many years for the Lockinge winner in the Queen Anne so trends followers might want to switch to the runner-up, Sovereign Debt, who was beaten by four lengths at 80/1 or Aljamaaheer who was a further neck back in third, or the fourth, Chil The Kite, the fifth, Declaration Of War, despite being sent off a warm favourite at Newbury or Trumpet Major who was tailed off back in tenth and Hughes says he will try and ride him for a place here. It is certainly worth noting that of the last 18 Queen Anne winners that ran in the Lockinge, as many as 12 were beaten in that Newbury Group 1 race so all is certainly not lost for that quintet’s chances. Aidan O’Brien supplies the probable second-favourite in Declaration Of War who had no right to start as short as 11/8 for the Lockinge on pure form but he should also have finished closer than fifth so I think we have to take that run with a pinch of salt. O’Brien’s Haradasun was also disappointing in the Lockinge before bouncing back to win the Queen Anne though, in fairness to Haradasun, that Newbury flop was his seasonal debut on his first start outside of Australia whereas Declaration Of War had already won well at The Curragh. We can’t ignore the fact, however, that O’Brien has won the Queen Anne twice and not with superstars either whereas his three most brilliant contenders (Hawk Wing, George Washington and Rip Van Winkle) not only failed to win but also failed to even place. Elusive Kate is pushing Declaration Of War for second-favouritism on her seasonal debut and if she can win first time out, then she will become the first winner to do since the Godolphin-owned Allied Forces in 1997. Also a filly of course, this really hasn’t been a filly’s race as only the most successful horse in European history in terms of Group 1 wins in Goldikova has won for fillies in recent times when she became the first winning filly or mare for 40 years. William Buick rides Elusive Kate in preference to her stablemate, Gregorian, who has caught my eye this season, firstly when just touched off at Haydock when openly in need of the run before winning the Diomed Stakes well at Epsom and I think he could be a sneaky one to run a big race with Tom Queally taking over in the saddle having also placed at this meeting last season in the St James’s Palace Stakes. The last winner aged over five was Ardoon back in 1976 so it is hard to make a case for Penitent (7) or Monsieur Chevalier (6). As highlighted earlier, four-year-olds have a superb record in this race so if any of the other five-year-olds in addition to Animal Kingdom can come out on top (Trade Storm or Libranno) they would be bucking the trend. Only one winner since 1995 started has outside of the first four in the betting. The first three in market will clearly be Animal Kingdom, Declaration Of War and Elusive Kate but it is tight for fourth-favouritism between Aljamaaheer, Trade Storm, Gregorian and Sovereign Debt. Given what a fantastic guide the Lockinge has been, Aljamaaheer interests me. Okay, Sovereign Debut had his measure by a neck at Newbury but the Roger Varian-trained four-year-old has had almost half as few career races and I fancy him to keep improving this season (that Lockinge run was a career-best) and he looked a weak three-year-old last season who could only progress at four which included a fast-finishing third over this course in the Jersey Stakes when only beaten a length on just his fourth career start. SHORT LIST Aljamaaheer Gregorian Declaration Of War CONCLUSION Black Caviar almost failed at odds of 1/6 last season being the International superstar of the meeting underlining this is a hard place to win when travelling from so far away and the straight mile on turf from an outside draw on his first run in Europe in a race where horses one year younger have a superb record is likely to see Animal Kingdom run below his rating, so it’s a question of how far below and whether his class can see him through. It may well do but at odds of 8/11 I can leave him alone in search of an each-way alternative and it would come as no surprise if he drifts to odds-against as the layers will surely want to get him so he is trading option for those who like to lay-to-back. Elusive Kate wouldn’t be your identikit Queen Anne winner being a filly (one win in 40+ years) on her seasonal debut (no winner since 1997) and I prefer her stablemate GREGORAN of the Gosden pair to run into frame having really liked the way he won the Diomed last time out. I also like ALJAMAAHEER’s each-way chances at around the 14/1 mark and make that the best bet of the race. Being a four-year like 17 of the last 21 winners that contested (and ran well in) the Lockinge like 18 of the last 32 winners, he is certainly one for those that like trends and I’m sure there is more to come from this fairly lightly-raced individual who also has quality straight-course Ascot form. Sovereign Debt is also a four-year-old that ran well in the Lockinge but, having his sixteenth career start, is he really going to improve enough to win? For that reason DECLARATION OF WAR makes up the short list. I am sure this four-year-old is better than his Lockinge flop and his stable have twice won the Queen Anne before including with another horse that disappointed at Newbury. He is shortest with Paddy Power who offer the money-back concession if Animal Kingdom wins (to a certain win-only stake) and that has to be considered an option. 3:05 KING’S STAND STAKES Race trends are not as strong for the King’s Stand as they are for the Queen Anne but it is noting that eight of the last 13 winners were also successful on their most recent outing (and Prohibit was only beaten an unlucky head on his previous start two years ago), so we must strongly consider the importance of entering the King’s Stand Stakes in tip-top heart. In fact, the last eight winners finished first or second last time out. This would suggest that Ballesteros, Doc Hay, Jack Dexter, Prohibit, Stepper Point, Angels Will Fall, Bungle In The Jungle and Hoyam are correctly priced trading at nothing shorter than 33/1 having all failed to make the first two last time out. Fillies/mares have won five of the last 19 runnings which is a belting strike rate given how heavily outnumbered but I would still struggle to fancy Angels Will Fall or Hoyam, their only two contenders this season. As for Reckless Abandon, Sole Power and Pearl Secret, whilst they also failed to post a top-two effort on their most recent start, it would be foolhardy to purely dismiss them on that statistic alone as the aforementioned-named pair finished a close-up third and fourth in the best European guide (the Temple Stakes) whereas Pearl Secret can’t be described as being out of form having not run since finishing ninth when we last saw him in the Nunthorpe (started at 6/1) where he tasted his only defeat in just a five-race career so he still has a big career ahead of him. Can he win a Group 1 first time out though in such a competitive race? If so, he will become the second horse to do so in 14 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns out to be the best of these come the end of the season however. With four Australian-trained winners (all four won the Lightning Stakes at Flemington won this season by the now-retired Black Caviar) and a success for Hong Kong with Little Bridge last season, it is no surprise to see a non European-trained horse in the Mike De Kock-trained Shea Shea heading the market. The Aussie challenge is not as potent this season though Shamexpress has to be respected so the international focus will principally be on the Al Quoz Sprint winner who is lightly raced for a six-year-old having won six of his eight career starts. I almost spat out my cornflakes when I read Kieren Fallon in the Weekender state: “I don’t like to use the word ‘certainty’ when describing horses’ chances, but Shea Shea is as near to that as you would get in a Group 1 sprint.” Heavens above. Win he may but that has to go down as one of the most ridiculous quotes I’ve read in a while as this is a hugely competitive 19-runner race and I can’t help thinking that 2/1 is way too short. There is no denying how smooth he has looked in Dubai but this is Ascot and horses either take to this course or they don’t and we simply don’t know in his case. The Form Book says that Shea Shea is a 2½ lengths better horse than Sole Power on two runs in Dubai so he is a deserving favourite but Sole Power was then beaten two lengths by Kingsgate Native in the Temple Stakes so I have to look to take on the South African raider at 2/1. Regards Shamexpress, being an Aussie raider alone means he comes here with a shout. He was only sixth, however, in the Lightning Stakes but he did bounce back to win a Grade 1 next time. Unlike the other Aussie winners at Royal Ascot though he is younger so not as battle hardened as I feel you need an ultra tough to travel half-way across the world with. We have to go back to the Vincent O’Brien-trained Bluebird under Cash Asmussen 26 years ago to locate the last King’s Stand Stakes success for Ireland whose sole contender is the Palace House Stakes winner, Sole Power, who has since disappointed slightly in the Temple Stakes when fourth behind Kingsgate Native beaten two lengths as the 11/10 favourite. The Temple Stakes has been the best British guide as five winners of that Group 2 affair since 1990 followed up here (Dayjur, Elbio, Lochsong, Bolshoi & Cassandra Go) and Equiano was second in that Haydock Group 2 affair three years ago before going on to win this prize whereas last year’s Temple winner, Bated Breath, only found Little Bridge too good here. If everything falls right then Sole Power has the ability to win any 5f sprint but despite a Nunthorpe win and a Temple Stakes success earlier in his career, he does seem to be a little unlucky and I am not sure that he really enjoys Ascot having placed just once in three starts here when third in this race last year. Rattling fast ground would help his chance even more but the watering policy over the weekend was put in motion so it is therefore more likely to ride Good on Day 1. If race times for the Queen Anne suggest it is quick ground, then mark up his chances. If he is to be successful then Sole Power will need to reverse Temple Stakes placings with Kingsgate Native, Swiss Spirit and Reckless Abandon. Kingsgate Native is too hit or miss for me and I don’t trust him to put two big runs together back to back but Swiss Spirit is of notable interest as he looked the best horse in the race but was hampered at the start and finished like a train to be beaten a neck. I have no doubt that he would have won with a clear run from the start and I also feel Ascot’s stiffer 5f will be more in his favour than Haydock’s. He also caught the eye on his return in the Duke Of York Stakes over 6f when paddock watchers were of the view he needed the run so I am pretty sure that his new trainer this season, John Gosden, has been working his way towards having him spot for on for this target at a meeting he has a fabulous record at and I expect him to improve again. Reckless Abandon ran a perfectly good race in third on his seasonal debut having won two Group 1s as a juvenile last season and the Norfolk Stakes at this meeting. Three-year-olds have a decent strike rate winning, on average, twice a decade which may not sound exciting but they are always heavily outnumbered (just three this time with Bungle In The Jungle and Hoyam being the other pair). He is not straightforward though and has a mid-draw for a horse than can hang so he may not be as near to a rail as he would like. Spirit Quartz was back in fifth in the Temple Stakes but he has since won the Prix du Gros-Chene held at Chantilly on French Derby day. Don’t Worry Me (4th), Nuclear Debate (1st), The Tatling (4th), Equiano (2nd) and Prohibit (2nd) all contested that Group 2 event over five furlongs prior to winning the King’s Stand Stakes success in the last 17 seasons and I can see him being the pick of the Robert Cowell-trained trio. SHORT LIST Swiss Spirit Reckless Abandon Pearl Secret Medicean Man CONCLUSION As with The Queen Anne, I want to take on the short-priced favourite so I have left Shea Shea out of my short list on value grounds despite him being the most obvious winner. He may be way too good for his rivals but if we keep backing 2/1 shots in 19-runner races at Royal Ascot then we know our long-term fate. My bet in this race last year was MEDICEAN MAN (place only) who then finished fourth at 33/1 much to my frustration. My reasons 12 months ago was that he loves Ascot and could outrun his odds and I am contemplating the same bet again at slightly shorter odds as he still loves the course as that fine run last season demonstrated yet again but also because he was a very striking winner last time out in a Listed race at Haydock where he came from away the pace and well off the pace to quicken up very well and take the spoils so he is now a horse that loves Ascot that is right at the top of his game. Despite the great record of the Aussies, I am not sure they rate Shamexpress in the same league as their other four winners of the race so I am hoping for a rare home-trained victory and like the each-way chances of SWISS SPIRIT most at a double-figure price. The Temple Stakes is a good guide to this race and, to my eyes, he was the best horse in the race who promises to be even better over a stiffer track and has been prepared to peak for today by a trainer with a rich history of getting his horses to Royal Ascot at their very best. Just behind him at Haydock was RECKLESS ABANDON who is a real live wire and was fresh going to post. With that freshness out of his system, he has a big chance for three-year-olds in a race where they have a decent enough strike rate from few runners if he can stay in a straight line unlike when he was still far too good for his rivals when easily winning the Norfolk Stakes over course and distance last season before adding the Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes. Previous Ascot form in sprint races often counts for plenty. PEARL SECRET is the fly-in-the-ointment horse. He is having his seasonal debut which is a slight niggle but that has been overcome twice in the last 14 years and he could just turn out to be very good indeed. Unbeaten in four starts heading into the Nunthorpe Stakes, his trainer holds him in the highest regard and around 14/1 could look a very big price when we look back at results at the end of the season. Swiss Spirit each-way is my main interest. 3:45 ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES Rock Of Gibraltar, Henrythenavigator and Frankel added this race to their 2000 Guineas success in recent seasons which has become a relevant statistic this season following the surprise announcement that Dawn Approach will take his chance despite his disastrous performance in the Derby. Many will argue that Epsom took too much out of him but I disagree as he was allowed to come home in his own time after being uncontrollable for the first mile off a pace too slow for him (though Bolger feels it was something else that set him alight) so he didn’t have the guts ripped out of him. Most Derby runners run in the King Edward VII Stakes if they take in this meeting but it is worth noting, however, that Marju won the St James’s Palace Stakes after finishing second in the Derby (flopped when a hot favourite in the 2000 Guineas) and, of more relevance, the Bolger-trained Lush Lashes was an easy winner of the Coronation Stakes having finished fifth in the Oaks for which she was sent off favourite. Bolger is known for training tough horses so I don’t really see the fact he bombed out in the Derby being as big a problem as many. Magician is more of a problem than that as he looked seriously good in the Dee Stakes and Irish 2000 Guineas. Up until the six-day entry stage, it appeared that the 2000 Guineas would be best represented by the fourth, Toronado, though some will argue that is unfair to Glory Awaits who finished second at 150/1 wearing blinkers for the first time at Newmarket. The 2000 Guineas is marginally the key guide ahead of the Irish 2000 Guineas but do not go using that a reason to take one rather over the other as there is little in it. That said, Most Improved became the first winner since Dr Fong 14 years earlier to be successful that had failed to finish in the first four in any version of a European 2000Guineasbeforehand when winning last year’s below-par renewal having made his seasonal return with a midfield effort in the French Derby. I really can’t see any of Dundonell, George Vancouver, Leitir Mor (surely a pacemaker for Dawn Approach despite winning a Group 3 race five days ago), Mars or Mswashish following suit. I am surprised Dundonell isn’t chasing easier pickings in the Jersey Stakes, George Vancouver was only tenth and seventh in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas, Mars didn’t get the run of the race in the Derby being held up in last place off a slow pace and found trouble in running (was the second best horse in the race in my view) and I am surprised he is running here rather than the Tercentenary Stakes over 1m2f which was initially the plan until we heard Magician had bruised himself and Mwashish was no match for the brilliant Intello in the French Derby but I would have preferred to see him finish second rather than finding two others to also beat him suggesting he is likely to fall short again. Of the big three, and this is a race for fancied horses as we have to go back to 1992 when Brief Truce floored Arazi and Rodrigo De Triano (both unplaced) to score at anything above 9/1, what Toronado has against him compared to Dawn Approach and Magician is that nine of the last 14 winners had won a European Guineas. His connections are convinced he didn’t give his running when fourth at Newmarket and he will wear a new bit this time to help him breathe better but he was thumped by Dawn Approach and that is a lot of ground he has to make up. Richard Hughes talked him up big time before the 2000 Guineas so there is a chance he is overhyped to an extent and I thought it was interesting at a Royal Ascot preview I attended last Tuesday that Richard Hannon Jnr distanced himself a little bit from his comments stating: “Richard is very enthusiastic about horses and wants everyone to feel like he does.” Hannon did feel that the Round Course would suit Toronado better than at Newmarket and said as it is a stiffer course, he will be held up this time. I was all over Magician for this contest until Dawn Approach entered the equation, at which point I changed my tack to looking to find a bookmaker offering prices on Magician to beat Toronado in a match bet but I am now even a little nervous about that following news that the superb Irish 2000 Guineas winner bruised himself and they would make a late decision. The fact Ballydoyle also then changed plans for Mars to run him here after that news did not increase my confidence. The English and Irish 2000Guineashold a significant edge over the French equivalent with the Newmarket and Curragh Classics having highlighted 13 and 12 respectively of the last 19 winners; in fact, three of the last five St James’s Palace Stakes winners contested both races. Very few horses will contest all three Group 1 races but those that have done so recently have been responsible for an eye-catching 11 of the last 18 St James’s Palace Stakes winners. I don’t see George Vancouver altering that statistic. Aidan O’Brien has unquestionably been the trainer to follow winning six of the last 13 renewals and five of his winners contested the Irish 2000Guineas(four of which won both races) where he supplied the 1-2 this season with Magician easily beating Gale Force Ten. O’Brien’s greatest hour in the St James’s Palace Stakes was when saddling the1-2-3in2007 and he had nine horses placed in addition to his winners going back to 2002. The mile on Ascot’s Round Course is stiffer than its straight-course equivalent as it is mainly on the rise so we should not be surprised at how well Curragh form stands up in this race given their mile is a stiffer test than that offered up by Newmarket and Magician has also won over 1m2f so it should be in his favour. SHORT LIST Magician Dawn Approach CONCLUSION I am not a Toronado man and this race has been dominated by leading fancies in the last 20 years so it’s between the big Irish pair of Dawn Approach and Magician for me, the winners of the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas. MAGICIAN would be the trends pick being trained by Aidan O’Brien as five of his St James’s Palace Stakes winners contested the Irish 2000 Guineas of which four of them won and Magician looked like his best three-year-old over any trip when sluicing up at The Curragh (the third has won well since) but it is not ideal he incurred bruising a few days ago and they have added Mars to the mix since then who I thought was unlucky not to finish second in the Derby. DAWN APPROACH is the new favourite since news of Magician’s bruising broke and I fancy him to return to form. The question is, is that form good enough to beat a fully-on-song Magician anyway as it was a 150/1 shot in Glory Awaits who raced up with the pace in a contest where few got into it that chased him home at Newmarket and, being a horse that likes to be wound up gradually in his race, I am not sure the placing of the bend is in Dawn Approach’s favour as much as those with an instantaneous turn of foot. Just too many questions for me so I think I will leave it alone and watch. Magician at 5/2 if seriously pushed. 4:20 COVENTRY STAKES I’ve seen better runnings of the Coventry Stakes but it is still likely to be throw up a quality performer or two. Upgraded to Group 2 status nine years ago, the Coventry Stakes has been a very good race for punters since that upgrade winning five of the last seven renewals with another of those successes going the way of last season’s second-favourite, Dawn Approach. Over the last 15 years, seven favourites have won and, researching back further in time, just three winners since Chief Singer won at 20/1 on his racecourse debut in 1983 have failed to start in the first five in the betting and two of those were trained by Aidan O’Brien who has won the race six times all told. On that basis, the O’Brien-trained Stubbs has a big chance of justifying probable favouritism arriving here off the back of demonstrating a taking turn of foot to win the same Listed race at Naas as Dawn Approach last season. O’Brien also runs Sir John Hawkins (out of the ultra tough classy Peeping Fawn) who won his only start at The Curragh and War Command, winners of their only start. Peeping Fawn didn’t flourish until half-way through her three-year-old career when she then fairly took off so there is a slight niggle whether he will be quite precocious enough. O’Brien is not shy in running what turn out to be his best horses in time as the likes of Henrythenavigator, Rock Of Gibraltar, Landseer, Oratorio and Power took their chance here, two of which were beaten and four of which won a Classic with another taking the Eclipse. Also respect his second and third strings (according to the betting) as two of those have won including Harbour Master who is the only winner in the last 29 runnings that was beaten on his previous start so clearly that is rule number one. There are three horses that were beaten last time out in the line up; Thirtypointstothree, Bahamian Heights and Riverboat Springs (the current fourth-favourite) though the latter was an eye-catcher and a half when runner-up to Thunder Strike in the Woodcote Stakes having patently failed to handle Epsom’s undulations. Stubbs (Joseph O’Brien) looks like being O’Brien’s number one hope this season over Sir John Hawkins (Ryan Moore) and War Command (Seamie Heffernan) though he was beaten on his debut and I prefer unbeaten horses if pressed. Stats say we should take particular note of contenders with a profile of winning on their only start as nine of the last 20 winners had such a profile which is an excellent strike rate considering the vast majority of runners will have run more than once. Qualifiers on that front are Sir John Hawkins, Championship, Wahaab, Dubawi Fun, Parbold and War Command. With three winners (including two of the last four), Richard Hannon has the best record outside of Aidan O’Brien and he has three realistic contenders in Wahaab who was all the rage before he made a successful debut at Goodwood (though he ran very green when asked to win his race), Championship, who made a winning debut despite a slow start in the same Newbury maiden the stable won with Canford Cliffs and Strong Suit who both then went on to Coventry Stakes success and Thunder Strike who romped to victory in the Woodcote Stakes. At the preview I attended last week, Richard Hannon Jnr could only talk of Thunder Strike saying that he had to be their number one in the Coventry (in fact he made it his best 2yo chance of the whole week) but something has occurred since then as Hughes said in his Racing Post column that he was all set to ride Thunder Strike until recently but now he rides Championship. I wouldn’t mind being informed by connections what is exactly going on. Being owned by Hamdan al Maktoum, Wahaab was always going to be ridden by Paul Hanagan though. Whether any are good enough is the question especially coming off Hughes’ comment that he usually knows what he will be riding in the Coventry Stakes as early as March. SHORT LIST Sir John Hawkins Championship War Command Parbold CONCLUSION O’Brien and Hannon have been the trainers to concentrate on recent years so no apologies for including three of their contenders in a four-horse short list from the first half dozen in the betting in a race that is rarely won by horses from outside that market parameter. As much as I respect the turn of foot Stubbs showed last time out, at top price of 5/2 I can resist and feel that SIR JOHN HAWKINS and WAR COMMAND offer better value to give Aidan O’Brien his seventh winner of this race. A couple of his winners were not his first string according to the betting and nine of the last 20 winners entered the race having won their only start like the aforementioned pair whereas Stubbs is having his fourth start and has tasted defeat. CHAMPIONSHIP is the pick of the Hannon team on his win at Newbury and there has to be something in the fact they started him in the same maiden as their two recent Coventry Stakes winners. He was not as emphatic a winner as Canford Cliffs or Strong Suit but he fluffed the start so is value for more and this does not look the strongest of Coventry Stakes. Richard Fahey’s PARBOLD should not be dismissed easily. He is another with the profile I like of winning their only start which came at the York Dante Meeting on soft ground when sent off favourite. It was just the professional manner that impressed rather than being wowed and, if we take the view, he will be even better on better ground, he comes right into the equation. No strong view on a best bet for the race. 5:00 ASCOT STAKES Last season’s runaway winner, Simenon, is trained by Willie Mullins who runs Midnight Oil this time and, like many winning Ascot Stakes handlers of late, he is far better recognised for his exploits with a jumps licence. Simenon’s success followed immediately off the back of the success in 2011 of the Nicky Henderson-trained Veiled who this year runs Lieutenant Miller. In fact, the last five winners were trained by stables better known for jumps racing as the three previous runnings were won by David Pipe, Suzy Smith and Paul Webber. Pipe had also been knocking on the door with a second and third in the previous two years and his father won this race four times when he held the licence at Nicholashayne and he is responsible for two runners, the 2010 winner, Junior, and Investissement. Jonjo O’Neill is also better known for his jumping exploits of course and he runs Well Sharp in the J P McManus colours after hisr runaway success by six lengths (could have been called the winner 4f out) at the York Dante Meeting in another staying handicap where jumps trainers have traditionally fared very well but that came at a price as he was raised 10lbs and this is will be run of much faster ground. Continuing on the jumps trainers theme, Phillip Hobbs runs Softsong and Big Easy. Usually this is very much a race in which to concentrate on four and five-year-olds with 15 of the last 18 winners emerging from that age bracket including last season’s wide-margin winner. It is understandable why four and five-year-olds have performed so well as not only are they are generally open to more improvement but they are also far more likely to be unexposed over extreme staying distances such as this (2m4f) and therefore improve for it. That would put me off Blue Bajan (11), Junior (10), La Estrella (10), Investissement (7), Lieutenant Miller (7) and Big Easy (6). There used to be an angle in the Ascot Stakes to oppose horses carrying less than 9st as they had been responsible for approximately 50% of the total runners between 1996-2008 but only won on three occasions but, in the last four years, the weights have been so much more compressed that very few horses have run off below 9st and none do this year. Therefore, it may be best to concentrate now on official ratings stats as eight of the last 11 winners were rated between 83-93 heading into the race which is against the top five in the weights; Blue Bajan, Well Sharp, Softsong, Investissement and Suraj. There was a draw bias angle to exploit a few years ago, even over 2m4f, when the race featuring nigh on 30 runners but that edge has been taken away by reducing the maximum field size to 20 so we have lost an ‘in’ there as there has been no advantage since. The market has been a fair guide, though no more than that, with 16 of the last 23 winners starting in the first five in the betting. SHORT LIST Midnight Oil Justifification Tiger Cliff Homeric CONCLUSION MIDNIGHT OIL has surely been teed up for a while to give Willie Mullins a second win in this race in as many years and continue the tremendous run of jumps-based trainers. He is the right age that just about falls into the right rating bracket and Mullins has turned to Richard Hughes to ride this Gigginstown Stud-owned hurdler these days who even contested the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle behind Jekzi and Champagne Fever (finished last of six) in December and I dare say he has improved a good few pounds since he last ran on the Flat on September 30th 2011 but he still races off the same handicap mark of 93 as on that occasion. Two wins and two seconds in his last four starts tells us he is on song and I envisage him being well backed so 10/1 makes plenty of appeal. TIGER CLIFF will be the most heart warming winner of Royal Ascot if this Lady Cecil-trained four-year-old can follow up his victory at Newmarket on just his fifth career start. He has to stay another 6f here but his sire is an influence for stamina and he has done all his best work in the closing stages. At around 5/1 though, bookmakers have not taken too many chances. HOMERIC won the 2m handicap here last month just doing enough under Ryan Moore who is claimed to ride Marchese Marconi for Coolmore who looks their second choice behind Justification. Frankie Dettori isn’t a bad replacement however and, having just his sixth start, there is surely plenty more to come from Homeric especially stepping up in trip for Highclere Thoroughbred Racing who love their Royal Ascot winners. JUSTIFICATION may have only finished seventh in the Chester Cup but that does not tell the whole story as he was never in a position to get into the race before finishing off strongly after meeting trouble in running having been sent off joint-favourite to be beaten only 4½ lengths and three of the last 12 Ascot Stakes winners ran well in the Chester Cup. 5:35 WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES Upgraded from a conditions event to a Listed Race nine seasons ago, the Windsor Castle Stakes remains the weakest two-year-old race of Royal Ascot from a quality perspective despite its elevation which contributes to why it is very weak on trends. I was keen on Fine N’ Dandy here who was declared on Sunday but he misses the race with colic. With four of the last seven winners starting at 100/1, 33/1, 20/1 and 14/1, the tide has turned in a big way as far as the market being a guide is concerned as the previous 21 winners up until 2006 had started in the first six in the betting. The Irish don’t attack this race with great force (no winner since 1980) but they have filled the runner-up berth twice in the last five years and supplied last season’s third. They look to have a stronger team this year however and Aidan O’Brien is doubly handed with Fountain Of Youth (Ryan Moore) and Wilshere Boulevard (Joseph O’Brien) and Tommy Stacks runs Treadstone who is one of the more interesting 33/1 shots. Very surprisingly, however, given his record with two-year-olds, and notably early-season two-year-olds, this is a race that has eluded Richard Hannon during his long, distinguished career though Alhebayeb came close to ending that hoodoo last season when beaten half a length into second. This year he runs the probable favourite, Anticipated, with Hughes riding following his defeat of Justice Day here in May alongside Steventon Star, Sacha Park and Beau Nash. Wesley Ward caused a shock for America when his Strike The Tiger won at 33/1 at 2009 but we have learned our lesson and his Ogermeister, will be a single-figure price after shown loads of speed to win his only start. SHORT LIST Ogermeister Treadstone My Catch Finflash CONCLUSION OGERMEISTER may have only beaten four rivals at odds of 2/5 on his only start in America but he was away like a bullet when making all and he could just been too speedy for these like a rank outsider who made all in this race for the same yard four years ago. Whether he was 2/5 on debut because he was beating trees or rather word had got out he was a speedball (or a combination or both), others with a clearer idea of American racing will know better than I but I can’t ignore what an impact Wesley Ward’s juveniles had at this meeting four years ago (also won the Queen Mary) so he has to be shortlist material. Given Richard Hannon’s record of never having won this race, this is another race where I will leave the favourite out of the short list and suggest TREADSTONE at 33/1 to each-way stakes. He has been pitched in against two of Ireland’s best two-year-olds this season when fourth to Coach House and second to Stubbs and I always take note when Tommy Stack sends over runners to Britain. He was strongest at the finish last time so this stiff 5f should suit and it is also his first chance to run on decent ground. MY CATCH went straight into my horse alerts after a very promising debut second at Beverley. He was taking on four previous winners that day but shaped best of all only losing out to the winner who bagged the rail and made all after My Catch had to be switched around him to deliver a challenge. I would expect him to improve plenty on that initial experience and we have Jamie Spencer on our side which is no bad thing on the Ascot straight course and he makes each-way appeal at 20/1. I will also throw FINFLASH in at a big price. He caught the eye here on debut in a race where Channon often runs a big Royal Ascot hope (and he has won this race three times) but then got beat in a hot maiden at Salisbury and was then on the face of it really disappointing when beaten at long odds-on at Lingfield but the 50/1 winner that day, Baytown Kestrel, could be a surprise packet in the Queen Mary so 50/1 about Finflash could be far too big.

[Multi Bet Thread - Lucky 15's, 31's, Yankees etc...]

Re: The Saturday Lucky 15 Thread excellent mate well done

[RIP Sir Henry Cecil]

Re: RIP Sir Henry Cecil Sir Henry Richard Amherst Cecil January 11, 1943 - 2013. Knight, trainer and gentleman, Rest In Peace:

[Quick Question - R4]

Re: Quick Question - R4 go on william hill look at the results and it tells you about the rule 4 deductions

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Segal's tips for Newmarket sunday 5/5/2013 2.05 Newmarket Fennell Bay 10-1 3.10 Newmarket Gabriel’s Lad 9-1 Advised ante-post 3.50 Newmarket What A Name 14-1 3.50 Newmarket Snow Queen 40-1

[Punting advice]

Re: Punting advice its available to download from 8pm the night before the shops get the paper using i-pad app

[Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th all at punchestown 2:30 Irish Field Chase The third and final cross-country chase of the meeting which features FRENEYS WELL who won this in 2009, 2010 and 2011 but missed the 2012 running, ZEST FOR LIFE who won the opening race of this meeting on Tuesday, OUTLAW PETE and UNCLE JUNIOR who both fell before it started to hot up in the La Touche Cup on Thursday, the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Chase runner-up, SHAKERVILZ, and the former Festival cross-country chase winner SIZING AUSTRALIA. Short List Outlaw Pete Freneys Well Sizing Australia Conclusion OUTLAW PETE won this race last year after falling when having just taken the lead in the La Touche Cup two days earlier and, if successful, this would be close to a case of déjà vu as he was travelling well again in the La Touche Cup two days ago until exiting at around the same stage. I also think this shorter trip (3m) suits him better than Uncle Junior who is the class act of the race but prefers a real test of stamina having won over 3m7f twice atCheltenham. FRENEYS WELL was only twelfth in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race but he has never showed his best at that course unlike over these banks where he has won this particular race on three occasions. He bypassed the La Touche Cup this season suggesting that the main man in these races, Enda Bolger, is intent on his claiming this race for a fourth time. Zest For Life was helped by the fall of the favourite on Tuesday in what was a far inferior race to this but he did look very happy in his work so I see him going well for a long way but ultimately fancy better horses to take his measure. SIZING AUSTRALIA isn’t quite the same horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival (finished fourth and fifth the next two years) but unless the ground is good, 3m7f stretches him there and he will be more at home over this 3m. This heavy ground isn’t ideal but he was fourth in this contest last year on similar ground and meets Outlaw Pete on 16lbs better terms. Shakervilz’s second to Big Shu was franked when the winner won the La Touche Cup here on Thursday but he has yet to win a cross country race and he hasn’t got that close in three other attempts over Punchestown’s banks. 3:10 Madra Irish Dog Foods Novice Chase Seven take their chance in this 2m2f novice chase where Willie Mullins runs two big guns in AUPCHARLIE and MIKAEL D’HAGUENET who hold a clear form advantage of their rivals. Short List Aupcharlie Dylan Ross Conclusion Despite finishing a decent third in the Powers Gold Cup last time out, I remain unconvinced that Mikael D’Haguenet is in love with jumping fences and prefer the Jewson flop, AUPCHARLIE, of the Mullins pair. Outstayed by Back In Focus at Leopardstown over 3m and then by Tofino Bay over the same trip at Naas, given that pair went on to finish 1-2 inthe NH Chase well clear of the Scottish National winner in third, there was no disgrace in either defeat and I think he has been crying out for a drop back in trip to around this distance of 2m2f given what a strong traveller and slick jumper he is. I don’t know what happened in the Jewson (though a blunder at the tenth shuffled him back and he struggled thereafter), hopefully it was just a bad day at the office and he can now show how talented he is when speed is the name of the game. DYLAN ROSS has plenty of talent but little appetite for a fight and doesn’t find as much as seems likely but every dog has its day and we can get some strange end-of-season results at this meeting. Don’t forget he had the ability to beat the RSA Chase winner Lord Windermere into second at Navan in November and was placed in a Grade 1 novice hurdle last season. Runner-up in a handicap hurdle at last season’s Cheltenham Festival, Toner D’Oudaries finally got off the mark at the sixth attempt over fences last time out but it wasn’t much of a race and he does look like a handicapper in the making whereas the other three have more natural ability. 3:45 Three Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase The last six winners have carried 11st 1lb or less (and just one winner in the last decade has carried over that weight) so lower-weighted horses looks the way to go. Willie Mullins has won three of the last eight runnings and relies on the top weight ON HIS OWN who is fresher than most having won the Boyne Hurdle and fell in the Grand National (when beaten) on his only two starts this season. This race also features the shock Irish National winner LIBERTY COUNSEL and WYCK HALL is an interesting contender for J P McManus and David Bridgwater having been ruled out of the Grand National with a setback. Short List Sword Fish Crash Fisher Bridge Conclusion We must respect the top weight On His Own given his trainer’s record in the race of three wins in eight years but lower-weighted horses have a fine record so I will concentrate on those. SWORD FISH registered his first chase victory in eight starts when successful at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and has good claims of a follow up off his featherweight (runs from 4lbs out of the handicap) for Christy Roche and J P McManus. The re-application of blinkers may have helped on that occasion as could have the less testing ground but he was backed into favouritism despite finishing unplaced on all previous seven chase starts which suggested they were expecting an improved effort. CRASH is dropping down to an attractive handicap mark and ran his best race for a while last time out at Tramore beaten only 2½ lengths after making most of the running. He is now off a stone lower mark than when finishing second at last season’s Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and has winning form here over fences. Noel Meade gave FISHER BRIDGE a run on the Flat 13 days ago which was his first run since running down the field in the Galway Plate last August which suggests it was a prep for this valuable prize. He may prefer better ground but he is a two-time winner on this course on a testing surface early in his career. 4:25 ITBA Fillies Scheme EBF Mares Hurdle The first running of this 2m2f hurdle race for mares under its new Grade 1 status (was only a Grade 3 last season) and is now worth the best part of 100,000 euros but it is has only attracted five runners. Short List Tarla Glens Melody Conclusion So much for those who argued Willie Mullins’ horses were struggling after the first two days as he banged in five winners on Thursday and it would come as no surprise if he registered a 1-2 here. TARLA is the class act in this field and is officially 10lbs the best mare over hurdles in the line up so she is clearly going to be hard to beat and this has been her target all season hence the decision to bypass a clash with Quevega at Cheltenham where she would probably have started second-favourite. Her two falls were both over fences. Oilily is next best on official ratings and is sure to strip fitter for her first run since the summer when beaten 28 lengths by Tarla last month but that is still a heck of a gap to bridge. Therefore GLENS MELODY can rate as the main danger. No match for the brilliant Annie Power last time out but she was a comfortable winner of her previous two starts having been ridden too far out of her ground when third at the Leopardstown Christmas Meeting. Shadow Eile outran her odds of 66/1 to finish fourth to Quevega at the Cheltennham Festival and had won five of her previous eight races so is clearly no mug but Swimcombe Flame looks up against it. Tarla will be hard to beat and priced accordingly so maybe the forecast with Glens Melody is the way to go. 5:00 AES Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle Disappointingly there is no Our Conor on account of heavy ground. Hmmm, he’ll be racing on it for most of next winter no doubt. And it’s not as if he is going to run again for around six months. I do hope now they know they have a cracker they won’t be wrapping him up in cotton wool. That leaves six runners of which four are trained by Willie Mullins and one of them is going to pick up what is now a poor Grade 1 race. Eleven of the last 15 winners contested the Triumph Hurdle and seven of those 11 winners finished in the first four at Cheltenham. DIAKALI held on fourth this season with STOCKTONS WING pulled up. The only other race to feature more than one winner in the last ten years (and four in the last 13 years) is the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle run at Leopardstown on Irish Hennessy Day where Our Conor easily beat Diakali and BLOOD COTIL back in fourth. As with the Triumph Hurdle, this is a good race for the leading fancies to the extent that only one of the last dozen winners started at bigger than 7/1. In common with most of the hurdle races at this meeting it pays to be ridden from off the pace. Only two of the last 12 winners were ridden handily, notably Barizan who was a rare winner to make all over hurdles at this meeting when he shot into an immediate clear lead and never saw another horse. Diakali has shot clear of his rivals on his last two starts. Short List Diakali Stocktons Wing Conclusion Front running is not easy at this meeting but DIAKALI only has five rivals to fend off if he employs the same tactics that saw him finish second and fourth to Our Conor in the only two races that have featured more than one runner of this race in the last decade and I would argue that more than offsets that negative and he is the clear form pick to become the twelfth winner in the last 16 years to contest the Triumph Hurdle. The only other Triumph runner was STOCKTONS WING who failed to run his race but he had run Our Conor to 2½ lengths at Fairyhouse before Christmas and beat Dogora in a Grade 2 at the same course beforeCheltenham. Blood Cotil beat Stocktons Wing over Christmas but has been well beaten on his last two starts including by Diakali in the Spring Hurdle and was seventh in the Fred Winter last time out. 5:35 Sentanta Sports Handicap Hurdle Another of these massive-field handicap hurdles at this meeting in which to tread carefully, this 80,000 euros contest over 2m4f is probably the most ferocious of them all. This handicap can be argued to have only really been in existence for five years under its current guise after it received a significant prize money boost, since when Willie Mullins has taken over winning three of the last five runnings recording 1-2s last year and in 2010 and he also trained the runner-up two years ago and the third four years ago. His runners this year are MAKE YOUR MARK, BALNASLOW and THE PAPARAZZI KID. Winners regularly carried over 11st when it was just a run-of-the-mill handicap but, since the prize money injection, it has been lightly-weighted horses that have been coming to the fore with 14 of the last 15 first-three finishers carrying no more than 10st 12lbs. The exception was Philip Hobbs’ Ring The Boss who finished second in 2008 and a very rare British-trained runner. NATIVE GALLERY (Ben de Haan) is the only British runner this season. Only one of those 15 top-three finishers started any bigger than 16/1 despite the big fields so it has been a race to concentrate on those towards the head of the market. Short List Casey Top The Paparazzi Kid Make Your Mark Byerley Babe Conclusion Il Fenomeno is brought out again having won over two miles here on the opening day of the meeting but he was all out that day so whether he has recovered in time and will appreciate this extra half-mile under a 6lbs penalty are the chief concerns. The Leonard Whitmore stable trained the winner in 2008 and his CASEY TOP is interesting running off a hurdles mark of 123 having finished fourth to Al Ferof in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off a chase mark of 137 back in November. He has only run once since then when tenth in the Byrne Group Plate where he dropped back after a mistake at the water jump. Balnaslow has not shown much in four starts for Gigginstown and Willie Mullins since beating Ted Veale in a point-to-point but we have to respect the yard’s record in this race though the same owner-trainer combination appear to have a stronger candidate in MAKE YOUR MARK who wears a hood for the first time. A quality novice last season, if you had told me he would only be rated 133 not long after he was made virtually favourite for the Neptune after he won at Leopardstown at last season’s Christmas Meeting 16 months down the line I would have struggled to believe you so I remain interested in him off that kind of mark which is the same mark he ran off when fourth in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time out. The novice, THE PAPARAZZI KID, is Mullins’ third runner and looked to be given too much to do when third in a big field at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting last time out. He makes appeal off his low weight. The very much in-form BYERLEY BABE completes the short list also off a low weight chasing a hat-trick (not outside the first two on her last five starts) for Robert Tyner and J P McManus. She battled on bravely to just hold on last time out but she travelled notably well until making a mistake two out or the margin of victory would have been more comfortable. 6:10 Peggy Barry-Walsh Memorial Bumper A bumper for horses that have never run under Rules to be ridden by non-professionals so that means point-to-point runners can take part which is what four of this 19-runner field have done. In fact, MARTELLO TOWER, HIGH HANDEL and DE KAISER have all won between the flags. Short List Martello Tower Sukiyaki Jerusalem Bells Rock The World Conclusion It’s pretty much guesswork with 15 newcomers but SUKIYAKI is worth a name check being a rare bumper runner for Jim Bolger and he is not messing about booking Katie Walsh. The Mouse Morris-trained High Handel won his only start in the point-to-point arena by 20 lengths but a 748-day absence has to be a concern. I’ve been sticking with Jane Mangan’s rides in bumpers this week so will do so again and she rides JERUSALEM BELLS for Gigginstown rather than High Handel for the same owner. Therefore MARTELLO TOWER can prove best of those with winning pointing form and his win was just 41 days ago and Mags Mullins has turned to Patrick Mullins for the new owner or Our Conor, Barry Connell. And my final guess is Jessica Harrington’s ROCK THE WORLD for another lady amateur rider, Katie Harrington who rode a big bumper winner for her mother at this meeting three years ago.

[Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th 2:05 Sandown – bet365 Handicap Hurdle MINELLA FORFITNESS is developing into a very decent horse. Having won twice at Doncaster and showing a really good attitude to get up on the second of those wins, he went to Aintree to tackle a very competitive handicap hurdle and having settled much better in that race, was able to challenge still on the bridle and ended up being an impressive winner. The handicapper has increased his rating by nine pounds, but he is improving and if he settles like he did at Aintree, he has a good chance of defying his new mark with the trip and ground in his favour. 2:40 Sandown – bet365.com Celebration Chase SANCTUAIRE was brilliant in this last year and can win it again. He has a good record over fences at Sandown, winning two of his three starts and the only defeat was when trying to make a race of it with Sprinter Sacre, which would stop most horses! He has not run to form on his last two starts, but he was held up in those and a return to more aggressive tactics should reap its reward. It is also good to see Daryl Jacob in the saddle who rode him to win this race last year. 3:50 Sandown – bet365 Gold Cup This looks a very competitive handicap to finish the season with, but MR MOSS has a decent chance of going one better than Cappa Bleu did for trainer Evan Williams in the Grand National and winning this valuable handicap. He has looked an improved horse this winter and enters the race fresher than most, having run just the three times. Last time out he ran a cracker to finish second in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster and watching the race, I feel this extra distance will suit. The ground will be very similar in this and he is close to the bottom of the weights, which is usually an advantage in these marathon races. Another to consider is There’s No Panic who could prove some each-way value. Although still a novice, he has gained a fair amount of experience over fences and was not disgraced behind Dynaste in November. He has run well on both starts over fences at Sandown and has left the impression that this step up in trip will suit.

[Jump Racing ~ Friday April 26th]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Friday April 26th 4:20 Aon Novice Handicap Chase Nineteen have been declared for this 2m5f novice handicap chase which has been won by Willie Mullins four times in the last ten years and he relies this season on TERMINAL (Townend) and IMMEDIATE RESPONSE (Walsh). Short List Terminal Immediate Response Home Farm The Real Article Conclusion Maybe slightly surprising that Ruby Walsh rides IMMEDIATE RESPONSE rather than TERMINAL as class acts have a good record in this handicap and Terminal ran a fine race to finish fifth in the RSA Chase. Immediate Response is the more likely to start at shorter odds of the pair given jockey bookings and he has won two of his three chase starts at a lower level than his stablemate but I prefer Terminal as top weights have fared well with three horses winning off 11st 10lbs in the last five years and only Sweeney Times heads him in that respect off a 1lb higher mark. Prior to his good RSA run, Terminal had beaten Tofino Bay convincingly which is strong novice chase form given his two seconds in the NH Chase and Tuesday’s Grade 1 event. Another horse with plenty of weight is HOME FARM who beat White Star Line well in February before finishing third in the Irish National one place ahead of Sweeney Tunes. The re-opposing White Star Line franked that form when placing in the JLT Specialty Chase at the Cheltenham Festival but he has still yet to win over fences so any interest him would have to be with an each-way caveat. Edward O’Grady has had a season to forget but his Tanquil Sea ran a good second here on Wednesday and he has two chances with The Real Article and Solstice Knight who both have chances. Given THE REAL ARTICLE was a 150-rated hurdler, he has been given a chance off 137 here over fences and now steps up to an intermediate trip over fences for the first which also coincides with having his handicap chase debut on his fifth start over the larger obstacles. 4:55 Breakfast With Hector On 2FM Handicap Chase This will be a gruelling handicap chase over 3m6f on testing ground and only one winner has carried over 11st 2lbs in the last ten years. Willie Mullins was out of luck last year when his only representative finished fifth but he won this handicap for the previous four seasons so we have to highlight his contenders again which are QUISCOVER FONTAINE and the novice VESPER BELL with Ruby Walsh riding the latter. Short List Vesper Bell Mr Goodenough Goonyella Treacle Conclusion Quiscover Fontaine will do well to have recovered from finishing fifteenth in the Grand National three weeks ago so VESPER BELL is the pick of the Mullins duo in his bid to win this marathon handicap chase for the fifth time in six years. Made favourite for the NH Chase after he won here by 15 lengths on New Year’s Eve but he was beaten into third in the Punchestown Grand National Trial and took his chance instead in the Kim Muir with connections probably realising he had a better chance in a handicap than a quality novice chase and he fared okay in seventh. This longer trip and slower ground will be more in his favour here however and we know he goes well at Punchestown so I make him the one to beat. MR GOODENOUGH is a course specialist having won five of his last six completed starts at Punchestown (was second in the other) so he has to come right into this. He is also fresh having only run twice since October including when brought down five out on his last start. GOONEYELLA had to pull up in the Irish National (was just a 12/1 shot) with a slipped saddle but he had caught the eye in hunter chases beforehand for just a six-year-old, notably when third to the crack pair of Irish hunters, Salsify and Tammys Hill, at Leopardstown and he looks to have a rosy future and could easily figure highly here. TREACLE was the first horse to fall in the Grand National so he is still fresh and has shown enough when beating Ninetieth Minute two starts back to suggest he can still win a good handicap at the age of 12 and he is lightly raced over fences for one of his age. 5:30 Rabobank Champion Hurdle This is not a strong trends race though forecast punters might be interest to know that the second-favourite has beaten the favourite into second place in six of the last ten runnings. Five of the last 11 British challengers either won or finished second but that stat once read five of the last six so more recent runners have been letting the side down. Being unrepresented last season was quite remarkable given the prize money on offer and small field but at least ROCK ON RUBY has been sent over this time though it looks like the ground has gone against him. HURRICANE FLY should win this race for the fourth year in succession. Five reigning Champion Hurdlers have run here with three winning (Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Hurricane Fly) and two finishing second (Brave Inca and Punjabi). Hurricane Fly also won the Istabraq Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas Meeting where he had THOUSAND STARS back in third, a race that has featured as many as seven of the last 14 winners. The same figures apply to the Champion Hurdle in that seven of the last 14 winners lined up for that event though from a much bigger field size and Rock On Ruby has 2½ lengths to find with Hurricane Fly. The BHP Irish Champion Hurdle run at Leopardstown in January has also not surprisingly been a good pointer and Hurricane Fly will be bidding to become the sixth winner of the Rabobank Champion Hurdle to have contested the Irish Champion Hurdle where he had Thousand Stars back in second. Only two winners have not made the frame over hurdles on their most recent start. One was Brave Inca, though he appeared to be travelling best when taking a tumble in the Aintree Hurdle. The other was Silent Oscar but he had won on the Flat since not running to his best over hurdles less than a fortnight earlier so he was clearly bang in form. MIDNIGHT GAME and MISTER BENEDICTINE were both pulled up last time out and SO YOUNG finished ninth in the World Hurdle. Short List Hurricane Fly Conclusion The only negative I can see for HURRICANE FLY is that despite Sir Des Champs’ win, the Willie Mullins stable have been blowing hot and cold over the first two days, and two of his Cheltenham Festival winners ran downright awful. Rock On Ruby has 2½ lengths to find on Champion Hurdle form where he went off so fast that he got the usually strong-travelling winner off the bridle at the top of the hill so he can be marked up on that run but the ground was Heavy on Thursday which is firmly in favour of the 2011 and 2013 Champion Hurdler and against the 2012 Champion Hurdler. As such, it might be worth looking at Thousand Stars to chase the home the odds-on favourite again, which he did in this race two years ago and also in the Irish Champion Hurdle. It’s difficult to think Thousand Stars can beat Hurricane Fly as he has failed to do so in his nine previous attempts so far but he may be a touch of value for the forecast on testing ground. 6:05 Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle Despite sending off the last two beaten favourites, Willie Mullins has still trained five of the last 11 winners and is responsible for the big two in this season’s five-runner affair, Pont Alexandre and Un Atout. Nothing should be read into jockey bookings as Davy Russell is Giggisnstown’s rider but it is interesting that Un Atout moves up in trip. Of Mullins’ five winners, three bypassed the Cheltenham Festival and the other pair ran in the Neptune which is where PONT ALEXNADRE finished third and Ubak was back in seventh. The Neptune has been the best guide with three of the last seven winners finishing first or second in Cheltenham’s 2m5f novice hurdle championship. Eight of the last 15 winners ran at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting in four different races which is where SIZING RIO was last seen when third in the Grade 2 2m4f novice hurdle. The Grade 2 Synergy Security Services Novice Hurdle and the Grade 1 Navan Novices’ Hurdle have featured two of the last seven winners and were both won this season by Pont Alexandre. With regards to Aintree’s Grand National fixture, it has surprisingly been the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle over three miles rather than the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle over this 2m4f trip that has been the better guide. UBAK trounced his rivals by 16 lengths in this season’sMerseyat 22/1, which was some way to break his maiden tag, and the runner-up won at the Perth Festival earlier in the week. Six of the last nine favourites have won so, in line with the Cheltenham Festival equivalent of this race (theNeptune), this has been a punter-friendly race. With ten of the last 12 winners also successful last time out, we should clearly mark up such contenders like Ubak and MULLAGHANOE RIVER. A recent run has certainly been beneficial as seven of the last 11 winners had run since the Cheltenham Festival. Short List Pont Alexandre Ubak Conclusion Willie Mullins’ record jumps off the page and as PONT ALEXANDRE has been running in the right races, he therefore appeals more on trends than Un Atout who is stepping up in trip and has a huge chance of giving his stable their sixth winner in the last 12 runnings. Third in the Neptune when a warm favourite, I for one was puzzled by the slow pace he was asked to set on ground much faster than he had tackled before given he looked all stamina on his previous victories and it will be surprise if they make the same mistake again if they choose to lead as his main rival, Un Atout, has stamina to prove. He did look exceptional in the paddock beforehand and because the pace was not quick, I don’t think he had that hard a race so should be okay to show his best six weeks later. UBAK was four places behind Pont Alexandre in the Neptune but turned the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle into a rout by 16 lengths and it could be dangerous to dismiss that as a freak result. 6:40 Star Best For Racing Coverage Novice Hurdle Ten horses have been declared for the 2m novice hurdle for horses that have not won more than once over timber which has been won by Sizing Europe, Copper Bleu, Arvika Ligeonneire, Kid Cassidy and Oscara Dara in recent seasons so it usually takes a good one to win it. Favourites have won the last four runnings. Short List Waaheb Cops And Robbers Wedding Present Conclusion WAAHEB was vying for favouritism at the beginning of the season for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but his jumping has let him down and it will need to improve to win here. He is the form pick on his second to Jezki in a Grade 1 at Christmas where his jumping was poor but the engine is certainly there if they can find a way of getting him over hurdles more fluently and Dermot Weld is sure to have worked on that element of his game in the last two months. Moscow Mannon was also to the fore for the Festival novice hurdles at the start of the season having been a top bumper horse but he has had two setbacks this season which appeared to take their toll on him when a disappointing third at Naas where he went to instead of Cheltenham. COPS AND ROBBERS only found Pique Sous (third in last season’s Champion Bumper one place ahead of Moscow Mannon) too good in a Grade 2 at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting as a 25/1 shot and makes appeal. Noel Meade often runs horses that he ran in that Fairyhouse Grade 2 race in the Grade 1 two-miler at this meeting but the conditions of this contest set up for him well. Willie Mullins runs the unbeaten-in-three Un De Sceaux (two bumpers inFranceand a maiden hurdle win over this course) and could be anything. However, I prefer WEDDING PRESENT for the final berth who easily won a 25-runner maiden hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting with more authority than the eleven lengths’ winning margin suggested. 7:10 ITBA Fillies Scheme Premier Bumper One of the lesser interesting bumper races of the meeting which is restricted to fillies but I won’t list all the other conditions or we will be here for forever and a day and it is not particularly relevant to winner finding. Short List Robina Mai Evening Light Storm Away Conclusion No strong views but Jane Mangan has been going great guns in the bumpers at this meeting so far this week and she rides EVENING LIGHT for Prunella Dobbs having finished fourth on her only start at Thurles. If she can make natural improvement building on that, then she would have a chance in a wide open race. ROBINA MAI is Willie Mullins’ representative and he took the opening bumper of the six at this meeting with Moyle Park and won this race last year with the classy Glens Melody. She was runner-up on debut at Wexford when starting off over 2m4f when probably given too much to do so is likely to be ridden closer to the pace this time over 2m with that initial experience now under her belt. Pat Flynn has long been respected in bumpers and he runs STORM AWAY who made a winning debut at Tramore just 13 days ago. The niggle is her trainer said he she is Good-ground filly and won despite yielding ground last time and this will be softer but she is a winner and being a four-year-old, that extra 10lbs age allowance could be a big factor on a testing surface. 7:45 Racing Post Champion Hunters’ Chase A disappointing turnout of just seven runners forIreland’s most prestigious hunter chase which was abandoned last season and not restaged. That said, we do have a rematch between SALSIFY and OSCAR DELTA who would have been 1-2 (or 2-1) in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ before the latter jinked and unseated Jane Mangan half-way up the run-in when holding the eventual winner so it holds much fascination. Short List Oscar Delta Salsify Conclusion OSCAR DELTA would have won the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ but for unluckily losing his rider on the run-in and ground conditions are more in his favour here than for SALSIFY today who prefers a better surface and that could be all the difference. It looked a question of how far Salsify would win by turning for home at Cheltenham given his super-smooth progress but either Mangan had kept something up her sleeve on Oscar Delta (who was third in each of the previous two years) or Salsify’s effort just plan petered out on softer ground than he enjoys as there is no question that Oscar Delta was holding him. I also think Salsify is at his best working his way through big fields off a strong pace so just six rivals today means that a different type of riding may be required. The other five runners really should not be good enough. On better ground I would go for Salsify but I feel this could be Oscar Delta’s day, especially with Jane Mangan high on confidence after a good week so far.

[Jump Racing : Wednesday 23rd April]

Re: Jump Racing : Wednesday 23rd April Wednesday, April 24th – Day 2 3:40 Martinstown Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle I don’t mind the handicap chases at this meeting but the big-field handicap hurdles are nothing short of a minefield and this is no different so go easy. Plenty of small yards have won this Final in the nine years since it was first run (Willie Mullins would be the only big name trainer to have won it) and just one winner has carried over 11st 4lbs of which there seven such runners and there has only been one winner aged over seven of which there as many as 13 that been declared. Short List Rawnaq Dave’s Stamper Art Lord Brian Who Conclusion Using the age and weights stats, I have loaded the short list with horses aged under eight that have no more than 11st 4lbs of which there are ten to choose from; Sir Ector, Treat Yourself, Brian Who, First Impressions, Kilmainham, Rawnaq, Art Lord, Dave’s Stamper, Hartside and Hazariban before any possible reserves getting a run. Shane Nolan only trains a handful of horses but has a good Punchestown record and he trained last year’s winner of this race so DAVE’S STAMPER may well have been aimed at this prize for a while. He is a maiden after four starts but his winner of this race last year had only won one of his 30 career starts at the time. Despite the presence of Flemenstar in the stable, Peter Casey is still a smallish trainer in the big scheme of things and he runs ART LORD who stayed on strongly to win a maiden hurdle 18 days on just his second start over timber so he is open to much more improvement and is clearly in form and his close second to Goulanes in a point-to-point shows he had early ability. RAWNAQ was a promising second on the Flat for another small yard, that of Matthew Smith, just nine days ago which was also his first run since mid-October so he is entitled to come on for that effort which may have been used a blowing-the-cobwebs-away exercise ahead of this Final. The Edward Cawley-trained BRIAN WHO gets the final berth arriving here off a win in a 17-runner handicap hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting. A consistent individual so an 8lbs rise might just be enough but, then again, he won in decisive fashion. 4:20 Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle A 4yo hurdle for horses with no more than one win over timber, I very much doubt there is another Solwhit in this race who won it in 2008. Jessica Harrington then won the next two renewals with 6/1 and 10/1 shots and she runs HURRICANE RIDGE who ran on the Flat nine days ago and is now tried in a first-time visor. Mind you, the visor follows cheekpieces two starts back and first-time blinkers last time so the impression given is they are struggling with him. DALASIRI has the strongest Irish form having finished a head second to Dogora in a Listed juvenile hurdle but he was then outclassed behind Our Conor in a Group 1 at Leopardstown though his last of four in a Grade 3 when well fancied over Easter is harder to explain away. HABESH ran well for a long way in the Fred Winter but he did have a very low weight and ultimately he was beaten 24 lengths. Short List Call Me Bubbles Bayan Conclusion Willie Mullins won this race for the first time last year and CALL ME BUBBLES is sure to be very well fancied having won a premier handicap on the Flat and scoring comfortably on the second of his two hurdle-race starts in a maiden hurdle at Navan 53 days ago. Mullins also runs Vicone Du Noyer who has not run for a year and was last seen winning atAuteuiland now has his first run for his new connections in the colours of Sizing Europe. Ruby Walsh rides Call Me Bubbles despite the Handicapper rated him 6lbs inferior. BAYAN can be the main threat for the Gordon Elliott yard coming off the back of a win on the Flat at Dundalk last week having won a maiden hurdle atCorktwo weeks earlier. There is little between the pair on Flat ratings so this could be tight and they might be worth boxing up in a reverse forecast. Call Me Bubbles at a push, especially if the ground starts to dry out as he looked to learn plenty from his first hurdles run to his second which bodes well for a further big leap forward. 5:30 Bet Online With The Tote.com Punchestown Gold Cup First run as a Grade 1 level weights contest in 1999, as with the Cheltenham version, younger horses fare best with just one winner aged older than eight since 2003 and he was only a nine-year-old so I would have reservations that CHICAGO GREY will be up to this at the age of ten arriving her having never taking a cut at his fences when always in rear in the Grand National before pulling up. It would be harsh to oppose nine-year-olds purely down to that fact given that is when they should be in the prime and Captain Chris, QUITO DE LA ROQUE and RIVERSIDE THEATRE and a nine-year-old won last year. That successful nine-year-old 12 months ago was China Rock who was the only Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup representative in the field meaning that six of the last nine winners ran in the centrepiece race of the season. The Gold Cup is well represented this season with SIR DES CHAMPS (2nd) and LONG RUN (3rd) locking horns again along with CAPTAIN CHRIS (6th). Sir Des Champs also contested the best Irish guide to this race when second in the John Durkan Memorial Chase (which has contained six of the last 14 winners) on his seasonal debut. The John Durkan is also run at Punchestown and course form has counted for plenty in this race as eight of the last nine Irish-trained winners had won at Punchestown before (I don’t include Moscow Express for the purposes of this argument as his victory in this race was when the meeting was transferred to Fairyhouse in 2001). This is a second statistic that Chicago Grey has to overcome. Sir Des Champs also featured in Ireland’s other key race, the Lexus Chase which has thrown up three of the last ten winners just behind FIRST LIEUTENANT in a blanket finish where less than a length covered the first four. First Lieutenant has since won the Beftred Bowl at Aintree and the last three winners of that prize to run here having finished 112. Quito De La Roque was fourth in the Betfred Bowl but is allowed to take his chance giving Gigginstown House Stud three runners in the Punchestown Gold Cup and Davy Russell has elected to ride Sir Des Champs. A good race for favourite backers with seven of the last 11 proving successful (five of the last six Irish-trained favourites have won), a position likely to be held by Sir Des Champs. In-running bettors might want to note that five of the last seven winners were leading from as far as four out and, looking at the eight runners, I can see Quito De La Roque and Long Run being the pair that head proceedings at that stage. Seven of the last 11 winners had already won a Grade 1 race though how much we should read into that I have my doubts as three of the last four winners were breaking their duck at the very highest level when victorious here. Short List Sir Des Champs First Lieutenant Captain Chris Conclusion SIR DES CHAMPS has contested the right races (notably the Gold Cup and John Durkan), is a course winner like virtually all Irish-trained winners of this race and is also likely to start favourite in a race where five of the last Irish-trained winners were sent off the market leader so he would be the trends horse of the race. My niggle at the likely tightish price is that he did endure a very hard race in the Gold Cup when second to Bobs Worth finishing legless so he will be some tough nut if he can reproduce that level again. Betfred Bowl winners have a good record here and FIRST LIEUTENANT is given his chance to double up under Bryan Cooper having beaten Menorah at Aintree who has run well again since. My niggle with him is that his best form is on left-handed courses by some margin so far. With the Gold Cup being the best guide, it was close between Long Run and CAPTAIN CHRIS for the final berth but the latter had much the easier race not being asked to race as hard coming home in sixth, he is better suited to right-handed courses and a slightly shorter trip and, as there is nothing between the pair on King George form, he is better value at around the twice the price and has won at this meeting before proving he keep his form at this stage of the season. I really like his each-way chances taking on the probability of more jaded rivals, especially as he would probably have beaten Cue Card but for a bad error two out at Ascot in February and that form looks much better in light of what the winner has done in two subsequent starts. 6.05 Betdaq The People’s Exchange Champion Bumper This season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper which was won emphatically by BRIAR HILL by seven lengths looked a good renewal heading into the race and as these are the only two Grade 1 bumpers run all season, it stands to reason it is likely to be the most significant guide which has been case by a huge margin so far. Since this Grade 1 event at Punchestown was first run in 1992, ten winners contested the Cheltenhamversion of which nine finished in the first six at PrestburyPark. As for Briar Hill attempting to double up, Cousin Vinny in 2008 became the first horse to complete the Cheltenham-Punchestown double and he was quickly followed a year later by Dunguib (disqualified months later due to a banned substance found in his system) in 2009 and then Champagne Fever won both races last season. Other contenders from this season’s Cheltenham Festival Bumper are THE LIQUIDATOR (4th), POSIDEN SEA (9th), BLACKMAIL (15th) and SIZING TENNESSEE (21st). Since this race became a Grade1 in 1995, the Brits started to take a keener in interest and won four times in the next 11 years when they were seriously outnumbered. It has gone quiet, however, over the last seven years when, ironically, the Brits have started to become a force in the Cheltenham equivalent but The Liquidator has good prospects for the David Pipe stable off the back of his very good fourth in the Cheltenham Bumper. Noel Meade and Willie Mullins have the best records. Meade has won three of the last eight renewals of this contest (to add to Tiananmen Square in the inaugural running in 1992) and has a tried-and-tested formula for getting them here to do a job as none of those three recent winners had run at the Festival whilst two of them ran at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and guess where his representative, APACHE STRONGHOLD, ran last time out? He does have 4¾ lengths to find however with THE MIGHTY MILAN who beat him into third at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting though. Willie Mullins is clearly the number-one yard for top-class bumper horses and he has won this race on four occasions including the last two years and Briar Hill will be strong favourite to continue that run. Sizing Tennessee also represents the stable but needs to bounce back from a poor run at Cheltenham. Of the last 14 winners all but two had raced no more than three times under Rules. The only once-raced winner was Sweeps Hill who was the chief beneficiary of Dunguib’s disqualification a few months later but there are none of those this season. So, a twice or thrice-raced bumper horse it is then which means Briar Hill is fine if you don’t count his point-to-point runs which I haven’t for that statistic. Horses that have run more often than I would prefer under Rules are Blackmail,PosidenSea, Sizing Tennessee, The Liquidator, The Mighty Milan and QUE PASA. Short List Briar Hill Outlander Grecian Tiger Conclusion Being an impressive winner of the Weatherbys Champion Bumper hailing from a yard chasing a hat-trick in the race and having run twice under Rules, BRIAR HILL is the obvious trends horse and will surely need to go backwards from his Cheltenham win to give the others a chance unless there is a lurker and, officially lurking is his stablemate OUTLANDER for the Gigginstown operation that prefer not to send their best bumpers horse to the Cheltenham Festival and he is 3-3 inbumpers. The same owner/trainer combination won this race with Lovethehigherlaw two years ago after bypassing Cheltenham. The horse that Lovethehigherlaw narrowly defeated that year was Dermot Weld’s four-year-old, Waaheb, and Weld has fared very well with four-year-olds in this race of late as his Hidden Universe belied his years to win in 2010. Weld runs another four-year-old this season receiving a 10lbs weight allowance in GRECIAN TIGER who made a winning debut but has been defeated on his next two starts and is now tried in a first-time visor. One less run would have made The Liquidator more interesting and the only thing that would make me look twice at Apache Stronghold at this level is his trainer’s record in the race so he could be better than he has shown thus far. 6:40 Guinness Handicap Chase Following novices in handicap chases at the big spring Festivals is never a bad thing and they have an eye-catching record in the most valuable handicap chase of the meeting winning six of the last 14 runnings. Novices in today’s 15-runner line up are KLEPHT and CANALY. And don’t be concerned if your fancy failed to finish in the first three last time out as 11 of the last 13 winners failed to occupy a top-three slot on their previous outing yet 12 of the last 16 winners started between second and fourth-favourite which suggests that this is a handicap for plotted-up horses. Bouchasson won for the Brits 13 years ago but that was the last time a British-trained horse proved successful. That said, the Brits have only found one too good in two of the last four seasons and were unrepresented 12 months ago. The Paddy Power Gold Cup third NADIYA DE LA VEGA won on his last Irish raid for Nicky Henderson at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and he returns to Ireland again for this more valuable prize. Willie Mullins has trained five of the last nine winners including three of the last four and runs CALL THE POLICE (Ruby Walsh) and LAMBRO (Paul Townend). Ten of the last 15 winners carried under 11st and, in the last eight seasons alone, 27 of the 32 top-four places have gone the way of horses carrying less than 11st so it was some performance for Scotsirish to win off 11st 10lbs two years ago. That would suggest RUBI LIGHT (the only horse carrying over 11st this time) has it all to do off 11st 10lbs. Short List Call The Police Canaly Klepht Lambro Conclusion Given Willie Mullins’ record in this race of five wins in the last nine years, both CALL THE POLICE and LAMBRO have to be respected. Call The Police looks the number one with Ruby Walsh riding and he was all set to win the 2m4f handicap chase at this meeting last season as a novice until falling at the final fence six weeks after finishing third to Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant in the RSA Chase. LAMBRO wasn’t disgraced when tenth in the Topham last time out and he was a convincing winner at this course on his seasonal debut so certainly should not be forgotten. Novices have a fine record in this handicap winning six of the last 14 runnings and CANALY makes most appeal of the first-season chasers. His defeat of Terminal in December is best form this season amongst three wins, another coming over this course over hurdles and his last-time-out was too bad to be true. If you can forgive that poor run, then the chances are he may start a little overpriced as others won’t. KLEPHT is the other novice and finished third in the same race in which Canaly ran poorly in last time out. He was highly tried in the Grade 1 Dr P J Moriarty Chase in which Boston Bob narrowly beat Texas Jack, Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend but not disgraced beaten 12 lengths and that form was franked in no uncertain terms in the RSA Chase. 7:15 Attheraces Bumper A bumper for horses not to have won under Rules aged five, six or seven but CHUTE HALL and SESKINANE have won a point-to-point though exactly half of the 18 declarations have finished second in a bumper notably LOTS OF MEMORIES who has finished runner-up on four occasions. Short List Beat That Real Steel Sizing Chile Master Oscar Conclusion Lots Of Memories may have four second-place finishes to his name but none of those would have been in a bumper as deep as this so the chances are he will struggle to go one better this time. Willie Mullins took the spoils last year and relies on SIZING CHILE whose second to Blackmail on his debut is useful bumper form so it was a little disappointing he couldn’t justify odds-on favouritism for his only other start. Given the Mullins factor at this meeting, I still feel I have to include him in a short list. BEAT THAT and REAL STEEL are slightly more interesting and both finished second on their only start. Nicky Henderson has fared well with his few bumper runners at this meeting and trains Beat That who has not run since finishing second at Kempton 60 days on his only start where he was sent off odds-on in the colours of Michael Buckley. However, if you take the trouble to watch that race the winner was gifted a big, uncontested lead and Beat That did well to get within 3½ lengths as a result. Real Steel represents Philip Fenton of Dunguib bumper fame and he shaped nicely when second on his only start 24 days ago to his better-fancied stablemate. He made a big mid-race move to lead at half-way where he made his ground too fast and too early so no surprise he had used up his energy before the closing stages but, under a more restrained ride, he can make his presence felt here. The Christy Roche-trained MASTER OSCAR is interesting on his bumper debut as he has had two runs in maiden hurdles and didn’t fare badly at all on the latter on occasion finishing third at the prestigious Fairyhouse Easter Meeting where even maiden hurdles will be competitive races. He plugged on to be beaten six lengths giving the impression this 2f longer trip would suit.

[Jump Racing : Tuesday 22nd April]

Re: Jump Racing : Tuesday 22nd April Tuesday, April 23rd – punchestown 3:40 Kildare Hunt Club FR Sean Breen Memorial Chase Not the most inspiring race to kick off the five days often being the worst cross country race at the meeting (that said, last year’s winner was Big Shu who won this season’s Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Handicap) Enda Bolger has won three of the seven runnings so inevitably much of the focus will be on his quartet of Near Perfection, Zest For Life, Mount Sion and Keep On Track. Near Perfection is the most intriguing though this is his cross country debut. He runs in the colours of J P McManus and is a promising pointer/hunter having won four times from seven starts between the flags and was even sent off odds-on to beat the smart Gooneyella in his only hunter chase over Christmas where he was pulled up after being brought to a standstill. Zest For Life won this race three years ago but is only a nine-year-old. He then fell in this when favourite the following season before finishing second in another cross-country race at the same meeting four days later and was beaten seven lengths into third in this contest last season. I think we can assume that he has been trained for it again so his earlier efforts this campaign wouldn’t mean a lot though the last of his nine runs since he placed here 12 months ago was comfortably his best when third in a fair hunter chase beaten 3¼ lengths just over three weeks ago. Coming to the boil at the right time I would suggest. Mount Sion and Keep On Track don’t appeal as much but Bolger has booked Derek O’Connor and Katie Walsh respectively so they must be respected. Mount Sion has not run for 211 days and was tried in blinkers last time and did not fare well in his two cross country races last season so I have reservations about him. Keep On Track beat a horse called Paul Jones in a maiden point-to-point in November so he must be some serious piece of equine talent! Seriously though, that form doesn’t add up to a whole lot and he has beaten in his three point-to-points since. It’s more the Katie Walsh booking that intrigues me and she has won this race on Wedger Pardy. Away from the Enda Bolger massive, and Enniskillen makes more appeal than most for the same owner-trainer combination that won last season with Big Shu (the trainer also runs Exit Legs It but he looks very slow indeed) and he has been finished third and fourth on his last two runs in point-to-points. No wins in 14 starts between the flags and under Rules would make him more interesting as an each-way rather than straight win option. Short List Zest For Life Near Perfection Enniskillen Conclusion I’m feeling generous so we’ll call this a fun way of starting a brilliant opening day’s racing to the meeting featuring no less than nine horses that either won or finished second at the Cheltenham Festival. ZEST FOR LIFE and NEAR PERFECTION look the pick of the Bolger quartet in a race he has won three times in its seven runnings but as the latter is a banks-race debutant whereas the former has form figures of 1F3 in this race and looks to have been laid out of it again, he looks a better percentage option though Near Perfection in the J P McManus silks is the one I can see the money coming for having the more scope to improve. Zest For Life offered plenty of encouragement last time and with a clear round it is very hard not seeing him finish thereabouts. ENNISKILLEN is still a maiden but I respect the fact his owner-jockey won this race with a cross country horse the quality of Big Shu last season and he looks the pick of the non-Bolger runners for each-way purposes. 4:20 Herald Champion Novice Hurdle A belting renewal featuring the winner and third in the hottest Supreme Novices’ Hurdle I’ve ever seen, Champagne Fever and Jezki, plus the Neptune runner-up, Rule The World, and the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winner, Ted Veale, who was running away with the race from the home bend. Art Of Logistics and Mallowney complete the sextet and should be outclassed in a race in which the favourite has won six times in the last ten years and, looking back further, 11 times in the last 19 runnings. That said, every winner in the last decade emerged from the first four in the market though so the two outsiders can go. All but two of the last 16 winners finished first or second last time out which should statistically count against Jezki but it was the best Supreme I’ve seen, he was only beaten 2¾ lengths by Champagne Fever despite errors at the final two flights and the runner-up has since bolted up at Aintree since. When the pair previously met in the Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle it was Jezki’s turn of foot that won the day by 1½ lengths but the stronger pace at Cheltenham and more galloping track helped turn around that deficit. Five of the last eight winners contested the Royal Bond which is particularly eye-catching when we bear in mind that there is the best part of five months between the two races. If you believe that just to be a statistical blip then also consider that if we stretch the stats out a little further, eight of the last 13 winners of this contested the Royal Bond. A couple of winners were unplaced in the William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle won by Champagne Fever. In the main, though, history says you want to be with horses that were on the premises at the Festival and that can certainly be argued for the County Hurdle winner, Ted Veale, and the Neptune runner-up, Rule The World. If Ted Veale does follow up here, he will emulating Alderwood who won the same two races last season. Is this drop back to 2m against Rule The World though? He’s got three-mile chaser in time written all over him. The Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Novice Hurdle, a Grade 2 run at Fairyhouse over Easter has been contested by three of the last five winners. It’s only representative this year is Mallowney who started at 7/2 and fell at the fourth flight having been most progressive up until that setback. The Deloitte Hurdle over 2m2f at Leopardstown on Irish Hennessy Day has also featured a couple of winners in the last decade and was won this season by Champagne Fever who made all to beat Bright New Dawn. Short List Champagne Fever Jezki Conclusion The Royal Bond has been such a strong guide and given the 1-2 then finished first and third (though in the other order) in the best Supreme I’ve ever seen in a four seconds’ faster time than the Champion Hurdle, despite how well Ted Veale travelled when winning the County Hurdle and the fact that Rule The World has a big future, it would be a big surprise to me if either CHAMPAGNE FEVER or JEZKI doesn’t win. With little between them on two runs, it will be interesting who starts favourite (6/4 each of two with Paddy Power as I write) as the market leader has a fine record. If pressed, I would just go with Champagne Fever as he also won at this meeting last year after winning at the Cheltenham Festival, his trainer is mustard at this meeting and Jezki’s connections have stated they think he is better going left-handed despite beating Willie Mullins’ (going for a third win in five years in this race) giant grey in the Royal Bond at right-handed Fairyhouse where I didn’t think Walsh rode the runner-up to best suit his strengths and he was picked off by a speedier rival that day. 4.55 Bragbet.com Handicap Hurdle A 20-runner, Grade C, 2m handicap hurdle, for which the last ten winners have all started at a double-figure price so good luck with this one. Snap Tie showed his class to win off a very long layoff with 11st 9lbs on his back last season but only one other winner in the last ten years has won with more than 10st 5lbs on their back and the going is likely to be testing so I’d prefer to go with low weights again. He is off a big weight again off an 11lbs higher mark this year but, given how well he goes fresh, you can bet that he has been primed for this by Philip Hobbs. Willie Mullins has won two of the last seven runnings and runs the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle runner-up, Tennis Cap, with Walsh in the saddle leaving Paul Townend to take the mount on Tasitocht. Tennis Cap has run again since the Festibal back in novice company when a disappointing fourth in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse beaten 30 lengths as the 11/8 favourite so it is interesting Walsh that stays loyal as he also preferred him to the winner that day, Pique Sous. Tasitocht is also a novice and couldn’t complete his hat-trick last time out but he is now given his handicap debut and looks intriguing off 10st. Short List Tasitocht Citizenship Sitcom Shamiran Conclusion A nightmare race for punters down the years so go easy. I quite like TASITOCHT’s chances for a yard with two wins in the race having his handicap debut off a low weight and, generally for this race, the lower the weight the better. Mullins’ latest winner of this handicap was also a novice having its handicap debut. CITIZENSHIP finished sixth in this race last year but last season’s Boylesports Hurdle winner bypassed Cheltenham this time which could be in his favour and he was only beaten 2½ lengths in another competitive handicap at Fairyhouse over Easter so I would expect him to go well off 10st 2lbs. SITCOM runs off 9st 12lbs and off the back of a win in a maiden hurdle at Cork last month for Christy Roche and J P McManus. I can see him being a popular choice on his handicap debut with likely improvement to come on just his fifth career start. SHAMIRAN is more of a flyer given his lack of recent form but a first-time visor for a horse that won a 25-runner handicap at this meeting last season is interesting. That said, his recent form of two down-the-field efforts over the last six weeks following a break since October may well have been just to get him spot on to try and nab a second valuable handicap at this Festival. 5:30 Boylesports.com Champion Steeplechase A handicap up until 1999 so only results from there onwards really matter regards trends. If successful at massive odds-on, Sprinter Sacre will become the sixth British-trained winner from low representation. The Queen Mother Champion Chase is proving to be top dog as you might expect featuring eight of the last ten winners and it is hard to see Sizing Europe clawing back the 19 lengths he was defeated atCheltenham. The only chance that those wanting to take Sprinter Sacre on is that he had had enough for the season (which could also mean a bad mistake) having also won at Aintree in between as other two-mile greats Moscow Flyer and Master Minded were no way near their best in this race at the end of a long season (Moscow Flyer was beaten at 1-4 after winning at Aintree in between) but he has such a huge ratings advantage it is hard to see him running a stone below form and still not winning. Four of the last eight Tingle Creek Chase winners (also won by Sprinter Sacre) have also triumphed here. The leading Irish guide featuring four of the last nine winners is the Paddy Power Dial-a-Bet Chase over 2m1f where Sizing Europe beat Rubi Light this season but it was hard work given he was long odds-on suggesting to many that 2m4f is what he needs now to show his best. If successful, he would become the sixth dual winner since 1950 and the third former Champion Chaser to do so following Skymas and Klairon Davis. Now aged 11, the only three winners since 1992 aged older than nine were all ten-year-olds that won the previous season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase in which he was second last season to Finian’s Rainbow having won it 12 months earlier. Only two of the 14 winners since this became a level-weights Grade 1 contest started outside the first three in the betting. I expect Noble Prince to be the outsider of five having lost his way since last season’s Cheltenham Festival but there isn’t much between Foil Dubh and Days Hotel on their 1-2 and Fairyhouse earlier in the month. Short List Sprinter Sacre Conclusion SPRINTER SACRE is as unopposable on trends as he is on ratings and should saunter to another emphatic victory at an unbackable price which makes finding a bet in the race tricky. There are two options; (1) keep your money in your pocket and watch and admire or (2) look for a forecast bet or betting without the favourite. Sizing Europe is the obvious contender to finish second again but, despite winning this race last year, he ran well below his best when scraping home from Realt Dubh at odds-on and he was also beaten in this race when the defending Champion Chaser so there has to be an argument this late stage of the season does not bring the best out of him as he usually starts off as early as October. Therefore, his stablemate, Days Hotel, might be a little bit of value in a without Sprinter Sacre market being 6lbs better off with Foil Dubh than when beaten 1¾ lengths in the Normans Grove Chase earlier this month. I don’t think he was at his best that day. 6:05 Goffs Land Rover Bumper The first of six bumpers at this meeting and the second most prestigious behind the Grade 1 event, this 100,000 euros prize is restricted to horses offered at the sponsors’ two-day sale in June last year aged four or five and was won by the subsequent Champion Chaser, Newmill, ten years ago. Four-year-olds have won six of the last seven runnings. Over half of the 27 runners are having their debut so your guess is as good as mine regarding those so it is not a great help that four of the last five winners were having their first outing in this race and the other had only run in a single point-to-point. That said, I do think the leading players with racing experience look stronger than usual this year so I won’t be in the slightest but surprised if that recent trend is reversed. Short List Wrath Of Titans Moyle Park Harvey Logan Rock On Bach Conclusion MOYLE PARK has to be the pick of those to have run under Rules despite being a five-year-old as four-year-olds have certainly held the edge recently in a race restricted to just four and five-year-olds. In fact, after winning what is often a very hot bumper at the Leopardstown Christmas Meeting that has featured a number of Weatherbys Champion Bumper winners where he beat the highly-regarded Blackmail, Moyle Park was then bought by Rich Ricci for a king’s ransom but the decision was taken to bypass Cheltenham. On his form, price tag and connections, Moyle Park is going to be well fancied here despite 26 rivals to give his yard a third win in the race since 2006. The Game Changer has already won a bumper for Charlie Swan whereas Classic Move (for the Don Cantillon yard that sent over a 25/1 shot from East Anglia to win the other bumper on this card last season) and the Gordon Elliott-trained WRATH OF TITANS have won their only point-to-point, the latter by a distance in the colours of Gigginstown Stud and they have turned to Jane Mangan to take off the very valuable 7lbs she is more than worth. The J P McManus-owned HARVEY LOGAN finished second on his debut for Noel Meade last month having travelled notably well but he failed to pick up quickly enough on tacky ground. If that experience has brought him on, he may be able to emulate Texas Jack for the same yard that won this race two years ago. Of the newcomers I’ll nominate ROCK ON BACH mainly because John Kiely knows how to train bumper horses and he is a four-year-old. Last year’s winner stable of Thomas Mullins run two debutants; Indian Rupee and Matchaway. 6:40 Growise Novice Chase Since this race was upgraded from a Grade 2 2m5f event to a Grade 1 3m1f race in 2007 there have been six runnings to work off so, in reality, patterns are thin on the ground at present. I would say this is the deepest running so far by a long chalk featuring the NH Chase 1-2 (Back In Focus and Tofino Bay), the likely RSA winner but for a fall (Boston Bob), the RSA runner-up (Lyreen Legend), the Powers Gold Cup runner-up (Dedigout), a two-time Grade 2 novice chase winner (Argocat), the talented-when-he-jumps-properly Mount Benbulben and the unbeaten-when-completing over fences, Harry Topper. The Punchestown Festival equivalent of the RSA Chase first run in 1992 and won by the Martin Pipe-trained Milford Quay, who was the first of five British-trained winners, and they are solely represented this season by Harry Topper who bypassed Cheltenham. Sir Des Champs became the first successful favourite last season since the race took on a new look when outclassing his field at odds of 2/7 so he was giving Gigginstown House Stud successive wins in the race following on from Quito De La Roque 12 months earlier and Dedigout is their representative in their hat-trick bid. With Ruby Walsh riding Back In Focus leaving Paul Townend to continue his partnership with Boston Bob, I expect Back In Focus to start favourite. A big run at Cheltenham Festival can take too much out of a novice, it certainly did for the RSA Chase winner, Cooldine, four years ago who had the look of a horse that had not come close to recovering from those Festival exertions when beaten here and that is the concern with Back in Focus who nailed Tofino Bay in the final yards of the NH Chase. The runner-up probably had even harder a race having been six lengths clear half-way up the run-in. The RSA is over 7f less and didn’t seem as taxing a race so maybe the runner-up, Lyreen Legend, and the probable winner but for his last fence fall, Boston Bob, will be fresher? With the over-the-top factor to consider, this race has so far had an end-of-season feel to it which has resulted in three relatively-surprising winners at 7/1, 9/1 and 16/1 in small-field events in the six years since it became a Grade 1 event so don’t be afraid to look away from the obvious. Two of the last four winners ran at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting which is where Dedigout finished second in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup two places ahead of Mount Benbulben whose jumping let him down again. The first three winners since the elevation to a Grade 1 had all won at least three times over fences and also over at least three miles as had Quito De La Roque two years ago. The two winners that had not won over 3m+ over fences were both trained by Willie Mullins and Boston Bob would be his third if successful. It’s a short enough time span to be honest but others yet to win at 3m+ over fences are Dedigout, Mount Benbulben, Lyreen Legend and Argocat. The only one of those horses that the race distance would concern me regards would be Argocat as the others should get this trip standing on their head. Three-time winners over fences are Back In Focus, Harry Topper and Tofino Bay. It has been young novices that have held sway so far with all six winners aged no older than seven (8+ are 0-15). Tofino Bay is aged ten whereas Boston Bob, Back In Focus and Mount Benbulben are eight-year-olds. Short List Dedigout Harry Topper Lyreen Legend Conclusion DEDIGOUT won the Grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m4f on this card last season and has always looked a stayer so he is most interesting back up to 3m1f having finished second to the brilliantly-ridden winner of the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup last time out (two of the last four winners ran at that meeting) and he has decent claims of giving his owner a third straight victory in this race on soft underfoot conditions which is what he needs. Missing Cheltenham may have been a blessing as four of his rivals had hard or pretty hard races at that meeting. The missing Cheltenham argument also applies to HARRY TOPPER who is one of three three-time winners over the fences whereas the other pair are eight-year-olds and this has been a race for younger novices since its elevation. The counter argument is that the Irish dominated the NH Chase and the RSA Chase and, bar Dynaste, they have looked have looked comfortably superior to the British staying novices this spring. The RSA Chase runner-up LYREEN LEGEND strikes me a tough sort so I rate his chances of having got over his Festival effort as high and this stiffer test of stamina will also play to his strengths (I was hoping he would go for the NH Chase and not the RSA). Dessie Hughes has won this race with a similar type in Rare Bob but I rate Lyreen Legend a better horse than him, though he would have to be to win this much hotter renewal. 7:15 Finlay Motor Group Bumper A bumper restricted to 4yo maidens under Rules but we do have a point-to-point winner in the line up in the shape of VERY WOOD for Gigginstown Stud and Gordon Eliott and they have again turned to Jane Mangan who is very good value for her 7lbs. I did feel after her unfortunate episode in the Cheltenham Foxhunters that big names would want to support her (she is very good) and they have done so today in two of the last three races. Not a lot else to say with over half the field being debutants except that Willie Mullins has won this bumper three times since 2005 and purely relies on WICKLOW BRAVE and that Jessica Harrington trained the second and third last year and relies on fellow debutante, GAMBLING GIRL. Short List Very Wood Wicklow Brave Gambling Girl Gold Turtle Conclusion Too much guesswork to take any strong opinion but VERY WOOD is likely to be popular with good reason given he will be the joint-most experienced horse in the race, the only winner of a race and is representing powerful connections so his short list place is predictable enough. Given how Mullins and Harrington have fared in the race recently I would also prefer to have WICKLOW BRAVE and GAMBLING GIRL on my side and, for the final guess, GOLD TURTLE is a newcomer representing the Noel Meade team that have won this race fairly recently and he looks like he should appreciate the soft ground judged on his breeding. Dermot Weld gives Windsor Park his debut in a bumper in the famous Dr Lambe colours but, looking at his breeding, this would not have been Plan A for this son of Galileo who missed Flat campaigns at the age of two and three so he is the most fascinating of the newcomers. I don’t usually associate the yard with bumper winners at this meeting though outside of the Grade 1 prize.

[jump racing saturday 20th april]

2:40 Ayr – QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle With ground conditions in her favour I can see UNE ARTISTE running a big race here. Nicky Henderson is the best trainer around with mares and I know he rates her highly. The winner of six of her nine starts over hurdles, she is rated just 142, which means she receives a handy eleven pounds from Grumeti. She ran well for a long way last time out, but for some reason just did not finish her race, but this trip of two miles should suit and she really impressed over two miles at Wetherby earlier in the season. Sametegal looks a big danger and he ran really well to finish third to Our Conor at Cheltenham. He is a horse that I like and has proved very consistent so far over hurdles. He looks sure to run a big race, but it is difficult for a four year old to win these top races and I just prefer Une Artiste in what could be a fascinating race. 3:50 Ayr – Coral Scottish Grand National. This year’s renewal is something of a special one, given that the winner of Aintree’s Grand National will be attempting to complete a scarce double in the Scottish version. Auroras Encore caused something of a shock when he stormed clear at the elbow to win at odds of around 66/1. In terms of trends, it looks something of a difficult task when you consider that the last horse to complete the double in the same year was Red Rum in 1974. More recently, horses who have run at Aintree and then lined up here have a poor record with no winner of the race in the last decade. It therefore seems best to steer clear of the Grand National winner despite his exploits a fortnight ago. One of the stronger trends associated with this race is that eight of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers to date. The extreme distance that the race is run over often tests the concentration levels of horses and therefore a good jumper can often get themselves out of trouble when required. There are eight members of this year’s field whose previous record may cause some concern with Auroras Encore, Silver By Nature, Always Right, Garleton, Tour Des Champs, Mister Maker, Rigadin De Beauchene, Big Occasion, Fill The Power and Neptune Equester all needing to put in their best rounds to have any chance here. An equally strong trend is that a first three finish on their most recent start is something that eight of the last ten winners have all had in common. This suggests that horses in form do tend to run well here despite the fact that they may carry a little more weight in this handicap. Auroras Encore, Our Mick, Always Right, Godsmejudge, Big Occasion, Neptune Equester, Monsieur Cadou, Rebeccas Choice and Captain Americo all arrive on the back of solid performances and should therefore be worth a second look. It may seem obvious given the distance of four miles and half a furlong, that horses with proven stamina are often successful. In fact six of the last ten winners all had a victory over 3m 2f or further to their name prior to running in this race. There are ten horses in this year’s renewal who fall at this particular hurdle with the likes of Knockara Beau, Tour Des Champs and Pentiffic all arriving with question marks over their stamina and if any race is likely to exploit any such weakness, the Scottish Grand National is that race. A major negative for potential contenders is if a horse is aged seven or younger, as the last seven-year-old to win was Gingembre in 2001. In the last decade, eight, nine and ten-year-olds have accounted for eight of the last ten winners so older horses should definitely be followed. There are seven horses aged seven or younger this time around, the quintet of seven-year-olds is made up of Our Mick, Godsmejudge, Problema Tic, Nuts N Bolts and Fill The Power, whilst the duo of Tour Des Champs and Big Occasion will be bidding to become the first six-year-old winners since Earth Summit in 1994. A final factor worthy of consideration is the poor record that favourites have in the Scottish Grand National. There have been no winning-favourites in the last decade and only three of the most recent winners went off at single figure SPs. Obviously the market is subject to fluctuations between now and the off but this looks to be a race in which a chance can be taken on a lively outsider. Shortlist Monsieur Cadou Rebeccas Choice Lively Baron (Always Right) Conclusion MONSIEUR CADOU completed his preparations for this race with an eight-length victory over three-and-a-half miles at Haydock at the end of March. He seemed to stay on well that day suggesting that the extra distance wouldn’t inconvenience him on Saturday. He seems to have learned from his mistake that saw him fall in November and as he is still relatively unexposed, he could be well in with the handicapper. Rebeccas Choice has shown his aptitude for jumping since the beginning of his career as he has never fallen or unseated in twenty-four starts over hurdles and fences. He seemed to improve when upped in trip to 3m5f at Warwick in February and improved again to finish second to another of today’s rivals Big Occasion in the Midlands Grand National. He looks to be in good form and with these extreme distances seeming to bring out the best in him; he could go close again on Saturday. The McCain family have long been associated with staying chasers and Lively Baron flies the flag for the yard this in this contest. He won the London National at Sandown in November over 3m6f suggesting that a test of stamina will suit the eight-year-old. Like so many of the McCain clan he jumps very well, in fact he has never failed to finish in twenty-one starts to date so you look set to be given a good run for your money. The final member on the shortlist Always Right will be looking to buck the trend related to non-completions having fallen or unseated twice in his career to date. It is worth pointing out however that the last time he unseated was in the Grand National behind Neptune Collonges and before that you have to go back to 2009 when he fell on only his second start over fences. He got back to winning ways last month and as long as his jumping holds up, he could have a chance of going close.

[jump racing sunday 14th april]

4:10 Market Rasen – Peacock & Binnington Novices’ Chase FORGOTTEN GOLD has some decent form to his name, including finishing second to Super Duty at Cheltenham and should be hard to beat. He was a fair hurdler, but has always looked a chaser and put in a respectable performance to win at Aintree in October. Last time out he faced a tough test at the Cheltenham festival, but this is more his level and the step up in trip should also suit. He sets the standard and a bold show is expected.

[jump racing saturday 13th april]

1:40 Uttoxeter – Betfred Goals Galore Conditional Jockeys Training Series Maiden Hurdle HALIFAX had some fair form on the flat for Mark Johnston and although he could only finish third on his debut over hurdles, this better ground should suit and I expect him to run well. He was a stayer on the flat and both wins came on decent ground. It was soft when he made his debut over hurdles, but good ground is expected at Uttoxeter. The distance of this race looks ideal and I think the track will also suit. He also has the benefit of having an eight pound claimer on board, so will be receiving weight from most of his opponents and he could be hard to beat.

[THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th John Smith’s Grand National (Grade 3) – Saturday 6th April With all of the last ten winners of the Grand National aged nine or older, this is certainly not a race in which younger horses have done well. The last time there was a winner younger than this was back in 2002 when Bindaree landed the spoils for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team and before him you have to go back to another eight-year-old, Party Politics who won in 1992. In terms of this year’s field, Join Together, Harry The Viking, Soll, Viking Blond and Lost Glory make up a quintet of eight-year-olds, whereas Saint Are will be bidding to become the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bogskar triumphed in 1940. Although given the strength of the trend, I think it would be somewhat foolish to consider any of those mentioned above. An equally strong trend is that a win over a distance of three miles or further is something that all of the last ten winners had on their CV. In fact this trend can be stretched back to 1970 and it is hardly surprising given the extreme stamina test the race provides. The three horses lining up for this year’s renewal looking to buck this trend are Tatenen who only has a win over 2m6f to his name, 2m4f winner Quiscover Fontaine and former Coral Cup winner Ninetieth Minute, but with history against them I am happy to rule them out at this stage. There may be some of you who might include both Seabass and Becauseicouldntsee as they have yet to win over three miles under rules, but both can boast winning form in point-to-points over the same distance and as a result I am happy to give them the benefit of the doubt. Given the perceived effort that horses have to give in the Grand National, it might be sensible to support a horse returning from a long lay-off. However, the statistics would suggest that a run within the last 50 days is the optimum, accounting for nine of the last ten winners. The only exception during this period was last year’s winner Neptune Collonges who managed to win following an absence of 56 days. Whilst you might still be thinking this makes little difference, consider that the last winner to defy the trend before Neptune Collonges was Aldaniti in 1981. This year there are nine of the field who will attempt to buck the trend including the likes of Imperial Commander, Joncol and Mumbles Head. The horse returning from the longest absence in the field is Jonjo O’Neill’s Lost Glory with 175 days having past since he won a handicap chase at Chepstow in October. It seems that match practice goes a long way in the Grand National and it would therefore seem sensible to stick with those who have run in the last fifty days. The amount of weight carried is often an important consideration when making a selection and this can be justified when observing that seven of the last ten winners carried 11st or less to victory. It is true that bigger weights have been carried to victory more recently in the Grand National but in general it is best to stick with 11st as the upper limit. Especially given that before the trio of Neptune Collonges, Don’t Push It and Hedgehunter carried 11st+ round, you have to go back to 1983 when Corbiere won with a weight of 11st 4lb on his back. In this year’s field, those attempting to defy this pattern appear as the first thirteen horses on your race card. Many of the fancied runners appear in this group with Teaforthree, Seabass, Join Together and Colbert Station needing to buck the trend. Perhaps the hardest task is reserved for former Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander who with a weight of 11st 10lb, would be the first winner to carry such a burden since Freebooter carried 11st 11lb in 1950. It is something of a common theme that previous form at a course often improves the chances of a horse, especially over such unique obstacles as the Grand National fences. Six of the last ten winners had had at least one spin around Aintree in the past, with five of those having previous experience over the National fences. Only a quarter of those taking part this year have never run here in any contest including horses such as Quel Esprit, Teaforthree, Balthazar King and The Rainbow Hunter. You would have to say that you would rather side with a horse who has run here in the past, but given that there are stronger patterns it may be sensible to take it with a pinch of salt. The final factor worthy of mention is the betting market. One of the great attractions of the Grand National is that it is perceived to be something of a lottery where big-priced winners can often prevail. However, the fact that seven of the last ten winners came from the first eight in the betting suggests that finding the winner may not be as difficult as it first seems. The market is obviously subject to fluctuation between now and 4:15 on Saturday, so it would seem inappropriate to mention any horses, but the betting trend is still a strong one and is worth some consideration. Shortlist CAPPA BLEU On His Own Chicago Grey Rare Bob Conclusion On His Own has led the ante-post market for the Grand National for several weeks now and looking at the trends, he looks well worth his place on the shortlist. He came here last year at the age of eight and was going well when falling on the second circuit. His preparations were completed in mid-February over hurdles, no doubt with his handicap mark in mind and has twice winner Ruby Walsh onboard to assist him. He has another year under his belt this time and looks set to go close. Chicago Grey is another horse to have had previous experience over the National fences albeit short-lived having been brought down at only the fifth fence last year. He certainly stays well having won the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2011 and as long he maintains his concentration when jumping, he could have a good chance for the Gordon Elliott team. Dessie Hughes’ Rare Bob departed at the same fence as Chicago Grey in last year’s renewal having been brought down. This was his first attempt at the Grand National havng had three previous runs at Aintree, one of which came when finishing fifth in the Becher in 2011. It is worth remembering that he was a high-quality novice chaser winning the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown. His trainer has saddled a top-five finisher in two of the last three years and given that this is his only chance this year, it would be hard to see him too far away at the finish. The marginal preference is for CAPPA BLEU who like his colleagues on the shortlist matched all six of the trends at the time of writing. Despite being eleven years of age, Evan Williams’ gelding has only had nine runs over fences in his career to date. He ran a great race last year to finish fourth on only his seventh chase start and arrives here on a similar mark despite a good run behind Vino Griego last time out. He stays well having also finished third in the Welsh National and having been trained all year with this in mind, I fancy him to run a big race.