beaker1
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Posts posted by beaker1
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Re: Jump racing ~ Friday 5th April Friday April 5th 2:30 – John Smith’s Mildmay Novices’ Chase ROCKY CREEK missed Cheltenham to go for this and connections can be rewarded for that decision. In four starts over fences he has looked very good, including an impressive defeat of Molotof at Doncaster. Last time out he won the Grade Two Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot despite connections stating that he ran below form. Having been given time to recover he comes here a fresh horse and sets the standard. He jumps well and stays very well and it is worth noting that he beat Rolling Aces in a point-to-point who is now rated 153. The main danger looks to be Super Duty who jumped really well at Cheltenham last time. He had a hard race though and that could cost him here. 3.05 – John Smith’s Melling Chase Sprinter Sacre steps up in trip to tackle two and a half miles for the first time over fences and faces some tough opposition, so this is not the formality that many think. He is certainly the most likely winner as he has looked an absolutely fantastic horse so far, but he faces classy opposition over a trip he is unproven over, so this will be a fascinating race to watch. Flemenstar is sure to make the running and make it a serious test for the favourite, but it has been reported that he is a bad traveler and this is the first time that he has raced outside Ireland, so he may not run to form. Finian’s Rainbow was impressive last year and could bounce back on better ground and with McCoy in the saddle I am expecting him to run his best race of the season. Cue Card was brilliant at Cheltenham and this is definitely his trip. He may struggle to make all the running, but should be able to sit up with the pace and a repeat of his last run should make him the biggest danger to the favourite, so it is CUE CARD BETTING WITHOUT THE FAVOURITE for me. 4:50 – John Smith’s Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle MINELLA FORFITNESS has really impressed me so far over hurdles and is a very interesting runner on his handicap debut. He looked a horse going places when he won at Doncaster at the start of February, beating Zuider Zee and Aaim To Prosper who have both won since. He showed a really good attitude that day and then returned to Doncaster to beat Cheltenian over two miles, where again he battled well to win. This trip should suit him much more than the two miles he ran over last time and off a mark of 135, he should run a big race.
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Re: Thur. 3.40: Fox Hunters Chase 2m5f110y I like COTTAGE OAK’s chances. He was no match for the classier Irish pair in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ (four of the last 11 winners ran in that race from not that many runners) but he finished a good third on ground softer than he would have liked given the heavy rain on the final day of the meeting after he won the Walrus Hunters’ Chase well which has been won by two winners of this race recently. He should also start in the first four in the betting like 18 of the last 20 winners unless something odd occurs and was formerly a handicap chaser like 8 of the last 11 winners. The former classy handicapper GWANAKO should also start in the first four in the betting as he was going well until falling in last year’s race when joint favourite. The concern is that he has fallen on all three starts over these fences since he won the Topham as just a five-year-old but a clear round probably makes him the one to beat for Paul Nicholls who won this race back in 2002 with Torduff Express. If there is to be a surprise then OFFSHORE ACCOUNT appeals most of those at bigger prices for each-way purposes. He was hampered badly in last year’s race which saw his rider exiting out the side door but he finished third the year before and has also finished seventh in the Topham and 15th in the Grand National so he knows his way around this course and this would be one of the weaker renewals of this race.
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Re: Thur. 4.50: Manifesto Novices Chase 2m4f CAPTAIN CONAN looked likely to win the Jewson at Cheltenham last month, but just failed to get up the hill. This flatter track should suit and he could prove hard to beat. Prior to Cheltenham he was unbeaten in three starts over fences and looked very good when winning at Cheltenham. Connections rate him very highly and if Barry Geraghty holds his challenge for a little longer I can certainly see him getting revenge on Changing Times, who finished ahead of him at Cheltenham. It is worth remembering that he ran really well at this meeting last year, finishing second to Darlan over hurdles, so the track should hold no fears to him and I expect him to win.
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Re: Thur. 4.15: Red Rum Handicap Chase 2m Novices have a good record in this and I like the look of one at the bottom of the weights and it is KIE. He has yet to finish out of the first two on four starts over fences and looked good when winning his debut at Musselbugh. He was not disgraced when finishing second to the useful Tetlami (rated 140) at Kempton, so a mark of 127 could be lenient. He handles good ground and likes to front run, which is often a good tactic at Aintree and he could prove hard to catch. A big danger could prove to be Toubab who ran a decent race at this track last year to finish second to Sprinter Sacre. There is clearly nothing of that quality in opposition today and a handicap mark of 145 gives him a serious chance. Last time out he made all to win at Doncaster off 140 and a rise of five pounds should not stop him running well again. Good ground is important to his chances, so assuming there has not been too much watering, he should run well.
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Re: Thur. 3.05: Aintree Hurdle 2m4f This race has a history of multiple winners and having won it for the last two years it is hard to look past OSCAR WHISKY. He is the best two and a half mile hurdler around and in seven starts at that distance he has won six and fallen when upsides the leader in the other. He was never going last time at Cheltenham and just never seems to run to form when tackling three miles, but this is his trip. He was pulled up when his chance had gone, so he did not have such a tough race as last year, but on the negative side, he has had less time to recover this year going into this race. He faces some tough opposition and it could be significant that Barry Geraghty has chosen Grandouet, but this horse sets a very high standard and Nicky Henderson reported that he worked very well at the weekend. Due to the fact that Barry Geraghty is not riding and he ran badly last time, he is available at 6/1 which is a real insult to his chances.
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Re: Thur. 2.30: Betfred Bowl Chase 3m1f SILVINIACCO CONTI was still going well when falling in the Gold Cup and is strongly fancied to win here. He is normally such a good jumper, so it was a shame he fell at Cheltenham, but he has looked a real class act this season and should be hard to beat given a clear round of jumping. He finished last season with a very impressive win at Aintree, defeating Champion Court by 13 lengths, so clearly handles Aintree well and on ground that will be very similar, he deserves to be a strong favourite. First time out this season he easily defeated Wayward Prince at Wetherby and then made all to beat Long Run at Haydock, who went on to win the King George. After a winter break he easily beat both The Giant Bolster and Menorah at Newbury and I can see no reason why any of those horses will turn the tables. The biggest dangers are from Ireland and both First Lieutenant and Quito De La Roque are respected, but the former just does not win as often as he should and Quito prefers soft ground, so it is Silviniacco Conti to win for me.
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Re: Thur. 2.00: Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 2m110y IRISH SAINT looked good when winning at Kempton at Christmas and then put in another good display when winning the Adonis Hurdle last time out, conceding weight to Vasco Du Ronceray. He did not go to Cheltenham for the Triumph Hurdle and that could be an advantage in this as the race was run on bad ground and may have taken the edge of many a horse. He has to turn the tables on Rolling Star who beat him a shade cozily at Cheltenham, but that race was on heavy ground and Rolling Star has to bounce back from a poor run at Cheltenham. The Nicholls team did not have a good Cheltenham, but have been in good form since (33% strike-rate) and I can see them getting off to the perfect start at Aintree.
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Re: Thur. 3.05: Aintree Hurdle 2m4f aintree hurdle positive trends The irish have won 17 of the last 36 runnings [ especially those that bypassed cheltenham ] last seasons renewal has been a strong guide the istabraq hurdle as been irelands best pointer negative trends no british trained winner has ever bypassed the cheltenham festival 6 of the last 9 champion hurdle winners to run have been beaten [ in fact only 4 winners have contested the champion hurdle since 1999 ] only one of the last 14 champion hurdle runners up to run have won
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Re: Thur. 4.50: Manifesto Novices Chase 2m4f manifesto chase positive trends all 4 winners ran well at the cheltenham festival [ 3 in the arkle trophy] 2 winners made virtually all philip hobbs has trained 2 winners and a third from his 3 runners all 4 winners started favourite or 2nd favourite negative trends only one horse officially rated under 150 as finished in the first three paul nicholls horses have collectively struggled so far no winner has been obviously held up all 4 favourites have been beaten
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Re: Thur. 5.25: Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle 3m110y silver cross handicap hurdle positive trends the last 9 winners won earlier in the campaign novices have won 5 of the last 7 runnings 4 of the last 8 winners won last time out horses officially rated between 128-131 have won 7 of the last 10 runnings the pretemps final and ebf novices hurdle final have been the best recent guides jonjo oneil trained 4 winners in the last 11 yrs 9 of the 25 winners had been chasing earlier in the season negative trends just two wins for 5-year olds in 25 yrs only 4 of the 25 winners did not run in march front runners have struggled only 1 of the last 15 winners had run not at least 4 times earlier in the season
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Re: Thur. 4.15: Red Rum Handicap Chase 2m red rum hcp chase positive trends novices have won 7 of the last 11 runnings 6 of the last 14 winners contested the johnny henderson grand annual at the cheltenham festival the front 5 in the betting have won 11 of the last 15 renewals consider horses that have previously run in this race negative trends only one winner older than 9 since 1988 only one winner has carried more than 11st 2lbs since 1999
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Re: Thur. 3.40: Fox Hunters Chase 2m5f110y foxhunter,s chase positive trends concentrate on prominently ridden horses 18 of the last 20 winners started in the first four in the betting 6 of the last 8 winners had experienced the grand national fences before ex handicappers have won 8 of the last 11 runnings 4 of the last 11 winners contested the cga foxhunters chase also respect the warlus chase winner negative trends only two winners in the last 20 yrs had not won earlier in the season only 2 of the last 29 winners were aged younger than 9 just one irish trained winner since 1983 only one unplaced horse last time out [ outside of the cga foxhunter chase] as won
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Re: Thur. 2.30: Betfred Bowl Chase 3m1f Betfred bowl - race 3 day 1 positive trends 12 of the last 29 winners made all or virtually all 19 of the 29 winners have contested the cheltenham gold cup half of the last 16 winners recorded a top four finish in the king george V1 chase horses aged 10 + have won 14 of the 29 runnings despite being notably outnumbered respect the winners of the argento chase and charlie hall chase negative trend be wary of supporting a top 3 finisher in the cheltenham gold cup
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Re: Thur. 2.00: Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 2m110y a few trends anniversary 4yo novice hurdle - race 1 day 1 positive trends all 8 winners since the upgrade to grade 1 status were placed at worst at the cheltenham festival alan king has won 3 of the last 6 runnings the fav as won 7 of the last 8 runnings since upgraded to grade 1 status the finale hurdle and finnese hurdle have been notable guides respect the adonis hurdle winner graded race form counts strongly french-breds have one 6 of the last 14 renewals from less than a quarter of the total runners the sex allowance increases respect for fillies negative trend only 4 of the last 23 winners had not won at least twice over hurdles
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Re: Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f looking forward to this race with sprinter sacre,cue card and fleminstar taking on each other, this will be the first time sprinter sacre races over 2m 4f
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th while i like imperial commander he never seems to run the same race on his 2nd time back
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Re: Irish Grand National + Jumps~ Monday 1st April well done bowles cracking shout
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Re: Irish Grand National + Jumps~ Monday 1st April 4:50 Fairyhouse – Irish Grand National MARASONNIEN looks to be on a good mark for his handicap debut. A grade one winner over hurdles, where he stayed on well to beat Vesper Bell, he has run well over fences without getting his head in front. His run behind Lord Windermere, where he was beaten just 2 lengths at level weights now looks really good form after his win in the RSA Chase and this step up in trip looks like it should suit. He has not looked the quickest horse so far, so I feel it is a good idea to try marathon trips with him. A rating of 135 looks lenient and gives him a very low weight (10-2), which is important as 8 of the last 9 winners carried 10-5 or less. Willie Mullins had several entered in this, but has made him his number one for the race and taken his other leading contenders out, so that could be a tip in its self.
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Sunday 31st March 4:30 Fairyhouse – Powers Gold Cup sunday 31st march BUCKERS BRIDGE really impressed me first time out over fences, jumping well in bad ground to come out best in an almighty battle with Sword of Destiny. He ran below form next time out, but I expect he was still feeling the effects of such a hard race. Having been given a break he returned to the track in February and ran a good race to beat Twinlight over an inadequate trip. Two and a half miles suits him perfectly and I can see him running a big race. He has won 5 of his 6 starts and is progressive and also fresh, which can prove critical at this stage of the season. Odds of 10/1 look fair and I can see him running very well. The main danger could prove to be Oscars Well who has taken well to fences and looked very good on his debut. He was a classy hurdler and jumped very well on his chase debut, but fell early on next time out and has not looked quite the same since. He has run well in defeat though, including beating Baily Green and Benefficient at Leopardstown, who both went on to frank the form at Cheltenham. He finished second to Arvika Ligeonniere that day, but that horse has not looked the same recently and Oscars Well has the benefit of a good break and with the extra distance of this race also likely to suit, he could prove hard to beat.
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th a few trends for the race positive trends horses aged 10+ have won 15 of the 23 runnings [and 18 of the last 19 were aged 9+] 8 of the last 10 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season look to a horse likely to be ridden prominetly previous experience over these fences has been handy though not crucial the top 8 in the betting have a better than most believe negative trends no winner since 1970 has failed to win over at least 3 miles no 7 yr old has won for 73 yrs treat horses comming of a long break with caution a hard race at the cheltenham festival often leaves its mark only 1 of the last 14 winners had won more than once earlier in the season
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday March 23rd 1:45 Newbury – Ultima’s Simon Bond And Geoff Hardwick Novices’ Hurdle Clive Cox has been in good form recently on the flat and he has a fancied runner over the jumps here. POET was an impressive winner at Newbury in December on soft ground and under similar conditions and can win again. He was classy on the flat, rated 115 at his peak and showed a strong liking for testing ground, which he gets in this. Last time out over hurdles he faced a stiff task, running in Grade One company and could never get into the race, but he faces a much easier task here and also has the assistance of a decent claimer in the saddle, so a big run is expected.
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Re: Doncaster weather and ground Friday n Saturday racing post is saying meeting is in doubt due to the threat of snow
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Betfred Midlands Grand National – Uttoxeter, 3:50 When Synchronised landed this race under 11st 5lb in 2010 the ground was almost untraceable, so much so that only three of the eighteen runners actually finished. That may well form part of the reason for his success under such a big weight as usually the Midlands Grand National favours those from towards the bottom of the handicap. Prior to his success, the previous eight consecutive winners had all carried 10st 9lbs or less and that trend has continued in the two years since his victory. With the ground for Saturday’s race currently described as Good to Soft; the top-weights Carruthers, Master Overseer and Silver By Nature look to have plenty to prove. Synchronised’s victory meant that he became the highest rated Midlands National winner since Young Kenny 11 years earlier. Both horses were rated in excess of 140 but they appear to be the exception rather than the norm. The most successful band appears to be from 122-133, a trait shared by nine of the last ten winners. That also suggests that Carruthers, Master Overseer, Monbeg Dude and Silver By Nature have a very tough task on their hands. Both Minella Four Star and Master Overseer weren’t your typical winner’s in the two previous renewals of this race as they pulled up on their most recent starts. Only two other recent winners, G V A Ireland and The Bunny Boiler, had failed to finish in the first three prior to winning the Midlands Grand National. Taking this one stage further, four of those remaining seven winners had been successful on their most recent start. So the last time out winners, Cool Operator, Rebeccas Choice, Chac Du Cadran, Master Overseer and Overseer are of particular interest. Master Overseer joined Synchronised, Russian Trigger, Ackzo, Intelligent, Philson Run, GVA Ireland and Himalayan Trail in that they had never fallen or unseated in their chasing careers prior to victory here, confirming that it is the safer jumpers that are the main group to focus on. Of those remaining in contention Silver By Nature, Monbeg Dude, Fill The Power, Major Malarkey, Cool Operator, Global Power, and You Know Yourself now make much less appeal. It really would be splitting hairs trying to separate the past ten winners by age. nine-year-olds hold a miniscule advantage having won four of the last 10 renewals but eight and nine-year-olds are hot on their heels with three wins apiece. However, considering that seven-year-olds make up the smallest percentage of actual runners in an average year, their chances must be respected. That suggests that Fill The Power and Global Power deserve to be left in the running. What is interesting is the complete lack of any older winners on the roll of honour. It is not as if runners aged ten or above have been thin on the ground, because they haven’t. So at this late stage anything aged 10 or above must come off any shortlists. Shortlist Chac Du Cadran Global Power Conclusion Top spot on the shortlist goes to the seven-year-old Chac Du Cadran who ticks all of the right boxes being a last time out winner, having never fallen or unseated, with form over 3m4f and weighted and rated in just about an ideal spot. He has only raced five times this season and has seemingly improved with every start so it is possible that we haven’t seen the best of him yet over this sort of staying trip. The 3m4f trip certainly agreed with him at Catterick last time when he won a competitive North Yorkshire National with something up his sleeve so he may just be still ahead of handicapper. Global Power meets with all of the positive trends barring being a last time out winner, however his run at Chepstow last time out showed enough for me to forgive him that. He is another lightly raced chaser that showed his stamina last time out when he chased home Saffron De Cotte over three miles. He is as yet untried over this far but he has shaped as though this stamina test could suit and he may go close off a featherweight.
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Re: McNamara in an induced coma.... agree, wish him all the best thoughts with the family also
Fri. 2.30: Mildmay Novices Chase 3m1f
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Fri. 2.30: Mildmay Novices Chase 3m1f ROCKY CREEK missed Cheltenham to go for this and connections can be rewarded for that decision. In four starts over fences he has looked very good, including an impressive defeat of Molotof at Doncaster. Last time out he won the Grade Two Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot despite connections stating that he ran below form. Having been given time to recover he comes here a fresh horse and sets the standard. He jumps well and stays very well and it is worth noting that he beat Rolling Aces in a point-to-point who is now rated 153. The main danger looks to be Super Duty who jumped really well at Cheltenham last time. He had a hard race though and that could cost him here.