beaker1
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Re: cheltenham preview nights 2013 Cheltenham Preview Evening – Oaksey House, Lambourn The top table comprised Nicky Henderson whose team for this year’s festival ranks amongst the best any trainer has had in recent years, his former stable jockey and Channel 4 pundit Mick Fitzgerald, Coral’s Simon Clare, last year’s Champion Hurdle winning jockey Noel Fehily and Jonathan Powell, who shares his life as a journalist with his role as vice-chairman of the IJF. The panel discussed most of the races at the festival and highlighted some of the horses that they felt most likely to feature at the business end of races at Cheltenham. JP – Jonathan Powell NH – Nicky Henderson SC – Simon Clare NF – Noel Fehily MF – Mick Fitzgerald Tuesday Supreme Novices’ JP: My Tent Or Yours was hugely impressive in winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury despite pulling hard for a long way. NH: My Tent Or Yours needs to prove he can get up the hill at Cheltenham, he has plenty of speed and may be suited by quicker pace as was always a little keen in Betfair. There are a few to threaten him such as Paul Nicholls’ Dodging Bullets. River Maigue’s form is solid and wasn’t suited by the sprint finish at Ascot last time but feeling that My Tent Or Yours is better of the two. (Mentioned later that he also had a lot of respect for Melodic Rendezvous who looks likely to head here) SC: My Tent Or Yours is favourite based on his Newbury success which was impressive, currently 6/4 with bookies and solid, may be worth waiting for the day as bookmakers may try to oppose it. Worth bearing in mind that following Betfair he was made second favourite for Champion Hurdle. Form of Jezki ties in with likes of Champagne Fever but My Tent Or Yours looks solid favourite. Arkle JP: Simonsig will be taking on one of my favourite horses in Overturn. NH: Promises to be one of the clashes of the week, jumping always important in these novice contests. Overturn probably needs good ground and speaking to Simon Claisse, rain is forecast and it wouldn’t take too much to change the ground back to soft. Simonsig has the pace to go with Overturn and the hill is likely to be where the contest is decided. NF: The race is a great spectacle and Simonsig looks the class act. SC: The bookies will be cheering on Overturn but I can see Simonsig winning well. Champion Hurdle NF: Rock On Ruby is in great order and has been trained for this race all year. I am hoping for a massive run from him and I don’t think there is much between the top four. Hope something else makes it, maybe Cinders And Ashes or Countrywide Flame but it won’t be me. NH: Very tactical race last year with almost two races at front and the back. There hasn’t been too much between Binocular and Hurricane Fly over the years, BInocular finished lame last year. Grandouet is very good and although Khyber Kim ran well last time, he is more likely to run in the County Hurdle SC: Hurricane Fly definitely going to go off favourite but Zarkandar has been well backed in recent weeks. It is difficult for five-year-olds in the Champion after running in the Triumph, now found his level and very tough and the one for me. JP: Paul Nicholls very bullish about chances of Zarkandar in the Champion, much better prep than last year after coughing in the yard. It is difficult to see much between the top four. Mares NH: Une Artiste has done everything right so far and capable of finishing second if Quevega is on form. Ma Filleule was lame on Saturday morning and missed her engagement at Doncaster. Would all have chance but not if proper Quevega turns up. NF: Quevega head and shoulders above the rest of these. Swing Bowler would have a decent chance based on her Betfair run although might run in something else. SC: Swing Bowler is interesting if she runs here rather than theCountyHurdle, the step up to 2m4f should suit her and ran well behind My Tent Or Yours at Newbury. Rest NF: It is difficult with horses in handicaps to work out where they are going to run NH: Quantitativeeasing set to run in JLT, 3m round Cheltenham should suit better than Kempton. He is high enough in handicap and has struggled with that this year. Rajdhani Express looks to have top weight in Pultney but with Sam Waley-Cohen taking 5lb here is nearer the bottom than the top. SC: In Pultney both Carlito Brigante and Attaglance have been well supported. In the JLT the best backed is Our Mick who is 6/1 from 10/1 and there has also been money for Fruity O’Rooney. In the Cross Country, we took a £4000 bet at 11/2 on Balthazar King this morning so a repeat of last year looks to be on the cards. JP: Arabella Boy would have a chance in the Cross Country if the ground was soft. Wednesday Neptune JP: Ruby Walsh says that Pont Alexandre reminds him of Denman and that he expects him to win this and the RSA at next year’s festival. NH: Pont Alexandre looks very good, Taquin De Seuil is useful, my horse Chatterbox is more likely to run than this time last week. He has only had three runs and thought the festival might come too soon for him but he looks good at the moment. NF: Pont Alexandre is a worthy favourite and the one they have to beat. The New One is too short and there is a question mark over his jumping. I like Chatterbox and at around 14/1 he looks a great bet. SC: The bookies will have to take Pont Alexandre on, The New One is highly rated by the Twiston-Davies’ and Taquin De Seuil is one of Jonjo’s best chances of the meeting. There are plenty of good ones behind him and it is worth taking the favourite on. RSA JP: I don’t see any holes in Dynaste, he jumps well although the stat regarding winners of the Feltham in the RSA is a concern. SC: Dynaste is one to take on, Boston Bob is a real stayer which is what is often needed here and both Hadrian’s Approach and Unioniste are nice horses as well. NH: Hadrian’s Approach has kept on improving and definitely stays, his jumping is good and would have beaten Unioniste in another stride ay Newbury. NF:dynaste was foot perfect when he last won atCheltenham and Unioniste looks the most likely to be chasing him home. Coral Cup JP: Wonderful Charm has had his wind done and is exciting Paul Nicholls at home although his price is short as a result. Very well fancied and the trainer’s money is down. SC: Wonderful Charm has been very well backed, Edeymi of Tony Martin’s is also fancied along with Alan King’s Meister Eckhart. Willie Mullins 11-year-old Fiveforthree is also worth a mention at odds of around 14/1. NF: It looks as though I might ride Pendra for Charlies Longsdon and the step up in trip should suit him. Wonderful Charm off 139 must have a big chance and is regarded as one of Nicholls’ best chances of the week. NH: I wanted to run Cash And Go in the race but he will not be as the owner also has Wonderful Charm in the race for which the vibes are good. The mare Ma Filleule could run for us and might get in off 10st 2lbs. Fred Winter NH: I will probably run both Magalyphos and Vasco Du Ronceray in this. Megalyphos was unlucky in the Finale at Chepstow but it was a good run and his wind has since been done. JP: Paul Nicholls’ Saphir Du Rheu has been kept back for this race following 11 length win last time. NF: Charlie Longsdon runs Tidal Way which I might ride. Ptit Zig has done well. Charles O’Brien’s Stockton’s Wing might have a good chance at 12/1 each way. SC: There has been money today for both Ptit ZIg and Megalyphos but this is a very competitive race as always. Champion Bumper JP: Joseph O’Brien is going to ride Shield in the bumper for his father and could be a big player. SC: There has been money for Union Dues with Clondaw Court unlikely to take part in the race. Le Vent D’Antan has also been supported on the back of a write-up in the Racing Post. NF: The bumper is always a rough run race. Oscar Rock is improving with every race and would have a chance if the ground was slow. NH: I don’t much like the bumper as a race, usually the first three turn into nice horses but I prefer to stay out of it with a young horse. John Oaksey National Hunt Chase JP: Boston Bob is the favourite for this race but is drifting on Betfair. In this four mile race you need a safe jumper and an experienced rider to get round. MF: David Pipe has some interesting entries, Goulanes is very impressive and well backed. Also Alan King’s Godsmejudge won well at Warwick and a horse that runs well there often does the same at Cheltenham. Thursday Jewson NH: You can probably excuse Captain Conan’s last run and he should be thereabouts. He has looked very good in the last couple of weeks and has plenty of pace. Aupcharlie has been talked up quite a lot and keeps coming up in these conversations. SC: Captain Conan is likely to go off favourite. Argocat has been backed in from around 33/1 into around 10/1, trained by Tom Taafe. Module has also been put up as one to go well. MF: Benefficient was very impressive in his work on Sunday and Tony Martin knows what he is doing. He is also a Grade 1 winner already but Nicky is confident with Captain Conan. NF: Module is a battler and could run well, Captain Conan has been good and Benefficient looks a big price each way at 16/1. Ryanair JP: There are plenty here who still don’t know where they are going. Riverside Theatre is at his best when fresh and I’m not sure First Lieutenant stays 3m 2 1/2f in the Gold Cup. NH: Riverside Theatre has had a problem with ulcers which has now been treated. He runs best fresh and is very well at the moment. SC: The money indicates that Cue Card is headign for this race, we’re not sure whether First Lieutenant and Sizing Europe are heading here or not. Phillip Hobbs has put Menorah up as one of his best chances of the week, each way at 10/1. China Rock is also worth a look and appears to be the each-way value in the race. NF: First Lieutenant has a good chance based on his run in the Hennessy. Menorah’s form has been better this year and looks good at 10/1. MF: Davy Russell wants First Lieutenant to run in the Ryanair, wheread Mouse Morris wants Bryan Cooper to ride him in the Gold Cup. He looks the one to beat here and don’t forget he beat Rock On Ruby in theNeptune. World Hurdle JP: Not sure what happened with Oscar Whisky last year in the World Hurdle. NH: I’m sure that Oscar Whisky wasn’t right last year and he came back into the unsaddling in a bad way. Over 2m 4f he is the best I’ve got and in the Cleeve Hurdle Barry said he would rather get there too late than get there too soon and get collared. Reve De Sivola loves soft ground and Oscar Whisky is more comfortable on better ground. Oscara Dara will also run in this rather than carry the weight in the Coral Cup. MF: I’m concerned about the proximity of Oscar Whisky to Thousand Stars in last year’s World Hurdle as there has always been very little between them. It is wide open and Smad Place would have a chance if the ground was half decent. NF: I’m in the Oscar Whisky camp but he never looked the same horse on bad ground. Bog Warrior at 9/1 or 10/1 must have a chance. Byrne Group Plate JP: Ballynagour has been backed off the boards and this is his most likely race at the festival. Although he is very short now and hasn’t been the most consistent horse in the past. SC: David Pipe has won this race in two of the last three years although Ballynagour has been raised 21lbs on the back of his win at Warwick. Hunt Ball will probably end up running here and Venetia Williams’ runners are worth keeping an eye on as she has some progressive horses running in the handicaps. NF: Tom Scudamore is very sweet on the chances of Ballynagour and thinks he is a worthy favourite. MF: Venetia Williams is taken with Shangani in this race but the vibes are very good surrounding Ballynagour. NH: Well novices don’t win this race. JP McManus’ horses must have a chance with the likes of Tap Night, Colour Squadron and Vulcanite. We will run Nadiya De La Vega but she is now fully exposed to the handicapper. Kim Muir JP: Derek O’Connor will be riding Super Duty and Donald McCain is very keen on his chances. SC: Super Duty well backed in the race and looks good, Merry King could run here or in the four miler and Cantlow has been lined up for a run at this meeting. NH: Prince Of Pirates may run with Nico De Boinville onboard, he’s a good horseman and is riding well at the moment. Prince Of Pirates is versatile and goes on any ground, he should enjoy this race. NF: Super Duty was good at Cheltenham and looks hard to beat. Merry King is a solid and JT McNamara may ride if it runs here. MF: Alfie Sherrin could pop in here, JP looks to have a good team. Pertemps JP: Sam Winner has been realy well backed for this and I really fancy him SC: Saw Winner is highly regarded but this is a very competitive event. Son Of Flicka and Close House are also both fancied by connections. NF: It is easy to forget that Sam Winner was third in the Triumph Hurdle but 3m here should br right up his street. Shutthefrontdoor was a good horse in bumpers. AP McCoy worth following here as he has the choice of a few fancied runners. MF: This has not been a race in which to follow favourites in recent years. Friday Triumph NH: This has been something of a lucky race for us down the years and Rolling Star and Vasco Du Ronceray look like they could represent us here. Rolling Star has come on since beating Irish Saint at Cheltenham and has a great temperament. The reason he hasn’t been out since then is that the owners wanted to keep the dream alive for as long as possible. MF: Our Conor looks to be the best of the Irish contingent and looked very well at Leopardstown on Sunday. I love Rolling Star and I find it interesting that he has only run once. NF: Of all of the field I fancy riding Rolling Star,Far West was impressive beating River Maigue last time.KashmirPeak has a chance but Dougie Costello seems to prefer his stablemate Hidden Justice. Albert Bartlett NH: Utopie Des Bordes has had two runs with us to date and I’m pretty sure that she stays. This is her objective at the moment but it is a good race. NF: At Fishers Cross was impressive at Cheltenham last time. I am sure that Coneygree is better than his last run suggests and a win for him would be a massive result for this place. MF: It would be brilliant if Coneygree won but he may just get run out of it. Gevrey Chambertain may one of the more interesting ones. JP: AP McCoy loves the attitude of At Fishers Cross. Taquin De Seuil looks likely to run here but AP will ride At Fishers Cross. SC: O’Faolains Bay is one worth considering at a big price. Gevrey Chambertain is interesting but it is worth keeping an eye on his entries and Ballycasey looks to have been priced on reputation rather than substance. Gold Cup SC: This is a really deep and open renewal of the Gold Cup. Captain Chris ran well in the King George and has really bounced back this year. Sunnyhillboy has also been backed at a big price as he has previous round Cheltenham and represents a bit of value at 66/1. MF: The addition of cheekpieces will help Long Run as well as his jockey Sam Waley-Cohen. Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs are both unbeaten at the Cheltenham Festival and should be respected. However there is no doubting Long Run’s resolution and I fancy him to run a big race. NF: Nicky has the two best horses in the race and with Long Run likely to bowl along in front he will be difficult to pass. Silviniaco Conti is a nice horse but would have to favour Bobs Worth and Long Run. NH: Bobs Worth worked well at Kempton and looks really well at the moment. In terms of Long Run, Mick has been a big help with Sam and the cheekpieces are likely to sharpen him up. The door is wide open for somebody to take their chance but I couldn’t split my two. JP: Ruby Walsh is very bullish about the chances of Silviniaco Conti given the speed and the accuracy with which he jumps. Grand Annual NH: We will have six runners in this and in last year’s race Bellvano got up to beat Tanks For That, who comes back for more this year. French Opera has a good chance here having been dropped 4lb on the back of a good run last time. Paul Carberry is on standby to ride Kid Cassidy who has ferocious pace. Anquetta would also be nice on good ground. JP: Kid Cassidy is an interesting contender. MF: Petit Robin would have a chance as he has run really well this year over hurdles. He is now 4lb better off over fences than hurdles and could have a squeak. NF: There are lots of useful hold up types in this race. Once again AP has a good choice of mounts. SC: This is always competitive. Tom George’s Rody has been well backed and I like that one. Alderwood won the County lasy year and would have a good chance as well. Rest MF: Salsify looks set for a big run in the Foxhunters. Mr Mole could chase the double in County Hurdle and Imperial Cup, beat Melodic Rendezvous in a novice hurdle in October. NF: Court Minstrel hated the ground in the Tolworth and could run well in the County. SC: Strong money for Mr Mole in the County Hurdle and interestingly the only horse that JP McManus has with Paul Nicholls. NH: Forgotten Voice needs good ground and could wait for Aintree or Punchestown. Wouldn’t Tricky Trickster have a chance in the Foxhunters? JP: Tricky Trickster has had its problems and there are more fancied runners at the festival for Nicholls. £100 Charity Bets to go the Injured Jockeys Fund NF: Sentry Duty in the Kim Muir JP: Pont Alexandre in the Neptune SC: £50 e/w Merry King in the John Oaksey 4 miler NH: Wonderful Charm in the Coral Cup MF: Dynaste wherever he runs
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Re: cheltenham chat thread 2013 Trains from Birmingham New Street station run approximately every half hour and take about 35 minutes to reach Cheltenham. From Bristol Temple Meads, trains leave every hour or so and also take about 35 minutes. Ten minutes should be allowed to reach The Centaur from Cheltenham Spa station by taxi.
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Re: william hill 10/1 on long run e/way as well
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As of 9am tomorrow we’ll be going…
10/1 Long Run for the Cheltenham Gold Cup Don’t forget, we’re non-runner, money back for this offer too. If Long Run doesn’t run as expected, you’ll get your money back. just had this sent to me from them via e-mail -
Re: Jump Racing - Sun 3rd March 5:00 Huntingdon – 32RedPoker.com Maiden Hurdle DARLEY SUN was useful on the flat, including winning an Ascot handicap by 10 lengths off a mark of 82 and the Cesarewitch by 5 lengths off a mark of 94 on good ground. He has recently joined John Ferguson and made a promising debut over hurdles, finishing third at Market Rasen on soft ground and with that experience behind him and on this better ground, I expect him to run very well and prove hard to beat.
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Re: The Saturday Lucky 15 Thread 2-20 doncaster -toubab - 11/8 2-55 doncaster -join together - 5/1 3-30 doncaster -aim to prosper - 7/4 3-50 newbury - saved by john - 14/1 0.50p win with w/hill reasoning in jump racing selections.
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Re: best bet of the day 2nd march 2:55 Doncaster – William Hill Grimthorpe Chase JOIN TOGETHER was one of the top novice chasers of last season and this trip of three miles two furlongs looks ideal for him. He is a class act on his day and now that the Grand National weights have come out, he has been allowed to race again and show that he is still on a fair mark. Last time out he stayed on strongly over the National fences to finish second to Hello Bud and last season he gave weight and easily beat Champion Court at Cheltenham, which is top form. The Nicholls team remains in good form and although he is close to the top of the weights, he has a touch of class and on good ground, can outclass the opposition. join together 1pt win @ 9/2 w/hill
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday March 2nd 2:20 Doncaster – TRM Handicap Chase TOUBAB looked progressive last season and was running a big race in the Grand Annual only to be brought down four out, when still travelling well. He ran off a rating of 143 that day and comes here off 140, despite having subsequently run well behind Sprinter Scare off level weights. Ground conditions have not been in his favour on his two starts this season, but he has his ground for this and on a track that Paul Nicholls does so well on with his chasers (36% strike rate over the last five years), he is fancied to win. 2:55 Doncaster – William Hill Grimthorpe Chase JOIN TOGETHER was one of the top novice chasers of last season and this trip of three miles two furlongs looks ideal for him. He is a class act on his day and now that the Grand National weights have come out, he has been allowed to race again and show that he is still on a fair mark. Last time out he stayed on strongly over the National fences to finish second to Hello Bud and last season he gave weight and easily beat Champion Court at Cheltenham, which is top form. The Nicholls team remains in good form and although he is close to the top of the weights, he has a touch of class and on good ground, can outclass the opposition. 3:30 Doncaster – William Hill – Download The App Handicap Hurdle This step up in trip to three miles should really suit AAIM TO PROSPER who rates a confident selection. Rated 107 on the flat, he has made a fair start over hurdles, finishing second over an inadequate trip on his debut, before running well behind two very promising novices at Doncaster, in Zuider Zee and Minella Forfitness (now rated 135). On his final start he also ran well to finish second at Ascot and with a rating of just 124 for his handicap debut, I can fully understand why connections have decided to go the handicap route, rather than try to win a novice hurdle. Ground conditions are very similar to last time at Doncaster and with the extra distance of this race likely to play to his strengths, I am very confident that he will run very well. 3:50 Newbury –Greatwood Gold Cup With seven of the ten horses to win this race having finished in the first four on their most recent outing, it seems that horses in form tend to go well here. This is something of a setback for six of this year’s field with Ballabriggs, Pacha Du Polder, The Knoxs, Pepite Rose, Mahogany Blaze and Bahrain Storm all needing to improve on recent performances in order to go close here. It is also interesting to note that the trio of Big Fella Thanks, Midnight Sail and Saved By John will be bidding to emulate Isio, who remains the only horse to have won here having also been victorious on their latest visit to the racecourse. Without doubt the strongest trend associated with the Greatwood Gold Cup is the fact that all of its winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers over obstacles. This 2m 4f contest represents a major test of a horse’s ability to jump well and at speed so it is little surprise to know that those with question marks surrounding their jumping have tended to struggle here in the past. Only three of this year’s field miss the cut at this stage with Big Fella Thanks, The Knoxs and Mahogany Blaze all exceeding the quota for costly errors and given the strength of the trend, I am happy to rule these three out of contention at this stage. Another notable statistic is that of the ten horses to have won this race, seven of them had an official rating of 135 or higher. The line-up for the Grade 3 this year includes five horses who fail to meet this standard with Midnight Sail, Mr Gardner, Saved By John, Bahrain Storm and Garynella all needing to run above their handicap marks to go close here. There is reason for optimism for these select few by looking to the likes of New Little Bric who won here off 133 in 2009 and the 2011 victor Fine Parchment who was rated only 130. The stable of Paul Nicholls has long been a production line for winners of big races but there will not be many races in which the master of Ditcheat has a better record than this one. In fact he has already managed to saddle five winners since the race was first run in 2004, including four of the last five winners. This year he has two representatives in the form of the ten-year-old The Knoxs and the six-year-old Pacha Du Polder. This record is certainly worth keeping in mind when narrowing down the shortlist given that Nicholls seems to know the sort of horse that can go well here. In terms of age the most successful group to follow here are the eight–year-olds who are responsible for five winners. Saved By John will be flying the flag for that generation this year and connections will be hoping that he can add to their tally on Saturday. At the older end of the age spectrum there would have to be concerns for supporters of Ballabriggs as at the age of twelve, he would be a year older than Horus who dead-heated for first in 2006. The final factor worthy of mention is that seven of the ten winners of this race have come from the first five in the betting. However it would be wrong to assume that favourites do well here with only three winning favourites during the race’s short history. The market is open to change between now and the off-time so it is difficult to make a firm judgment, but it should still be factored in to any final decisions regarding potential contenders. Shortlist SAVED BY JOHN Pacha Du Polder Tony Star Conclusion Considering the record that Paul Nicholls has in the race it seemed that one of his representatives this year had to make the shortlist. I went for Pacha Du Polder on the basis that he has done very little wrong in his relatively short career to date. He was a Grade 2 winning chaser as a novice over two and a half miles and this race looks likely to suit the six-year-old. He needs to bounce back after being pulled up last time but it was desperate ground that day at Cheltenham and he looks likely to improve for better ground at the weekend. He is still entitled to be improving and looks set for a big showing on Saturday. Tony Star has made an encouraging start to his chasing career with a creditable effort in Grade 2 company and a three-length defeat to Tetlami either side of an out of sorts performance in which he fell. This has resulted in Philip Hobbs’ charge achieving a lofty handicap mark of 138 despite still learning at this chasing game. It looks as though there is more to come from the six-year-old and given that he tended to run well in large fields over hurdles, there is reason to be optimistic of his chances here. He does need to improve to beat some of his rivals here but he fits many of the criteria needed to do well and he could go very close. The marginal preference is for the sole eight-year-old in the field, the Tim Vaughan-trained SAVED BY JOHN. He arrives here on the back of a win having got up close home to win over 2m at Wincanton and the extra four furlongs should be no problem as he won over the same distance on his chasing debut. In terms of his jumping, he has made very few errors so far and will need to continue that level of performance to contend here. He looks to be heading the right way and as long as he copes well with this higher level of competition, he looks likely to be involved at the business end of the race.
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Re: cheltenham preview nights 2013 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW EVENING at BANGOR-ON-DEE RACEOURSE Thursday, February 28th leading trainer Donald McCain (DM), Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author Paul Jones (PJ), Jumping Prospects author John Morris (JM) and broadcaster and commentator Stewart Machin. Darren Owen acted as the genial host. As we covered Stewart’s comments fromWarwicklast week and the same races were analysed and he did not deviate from his views, there is no real point to simply repeat his thoughts. Supreme Novices’ Hurdle DM:I’m a big fan of Melodic Rendezvous and would love to see Jeremy Scott have a Festival winner as he is a hell of a trainer. My Tent Or Yours only won a handicap last time and McCoy can make one look better than they are. I sometimes question what a strong-travelling Henderson horse will find off the bridle. He has so many high class horses with a high cruising speed but I just wonder if they battle? Am I being unfair? Melodic Rendezvous is not ground dependant and will do for me. PJ: My Tent Or Yours is already rated 10lbs above the figure Cinders And Ashes recorded when winning the Supreme last year and I can see him winning easily. However, history tells us the Supreme hasn’t been a great race for supposed good things and I would rather look at Dodging Bullets each-way, who is only 5lbs behind the favourite and has impressed at the course twice this season for a yard with two recent wins in the race. JM: My Tent Or Yours is too short. I didn’t think they went a great pace early on at Newbury so he was well positioned and I felt many of them gave up in the straight. I felt that Jezki was the real deal before My Tent Or Yours overtook him as favourite and see no reason to desert him now he is a bigger price as a result. I think a lot of Melodic Rendezvous bit will stick with Jezki who blew away a good field a Christmas. Racing Post Arkle Trophy DM:We decided before the start of the season that Overturn had to school exceptionally to go chasing and if he made one error at home he would go back to hurdling. He was very good on his chase debut at Sandown but running him over 2m4f atDoncastermeant we couldn’t see him at his best. It was only until Musselburgh that Jason could really put the gun to his head and we expected Tetlami to go with us for longer but he was out of his comfort zone at the pace Overturn was going early on. Overturn and Simonsig are like chalk and cheese. Simonsig does everything on the bridle and as far as I could see he has only had two schools in his races this season as Hinterland was not put in the Kempton race. He might be a superstar but he will never have been in a race like this before and it will be interesting to see what he finds when he has to come off the bridle, which he will do here. PJ:As much as I love Overturn I think he is a horse vulnerable when taking on the very best and Simonsig could be exceptional. Much will depend on when Maguire decides to throw in a huge leap and kick immediately after it and take advantage of freewheeling downhill like in last year’s Champion Hurdle but I don’t think Simonsig will have any problems sitting within five lengths of Overturn and I’m not sure that will be enough. I can’t have Arvika Ligeonneire on my mind at all. JM:Simonsig is 8/11 and Overturn is 11/4 so there can only be one bet. Overturn is a complete natural over a fence whereas I am not sure yet whether Simonsig is and we know he is more battle-hardened than the favourite and we don’t yet know what Simonsig finds when asked. As a punter, at those prices it can be only be Overturn. Stan James Champion Hurdle DM:Cinders And Ashes has not had the opportunity to show what he can do since he won the Supreme as the ground has been all against him. He worked very nicely here yesterday. I wouldn’t be as confident as I was when Peddlers Cross and Overturn finished second in the race but I do feel he represents good each-way value as you can put a line through Newcastle as the main aim was to get a run into him on virtually unraceable ground and the ground was then very testing at Kempton. We pinched a Grade 2 on heavy ground as a novice but Jason told me afterwards not to run him on it again. I was against Hurricane Fly the year he won and even more against him when I saw him in the paddock but I am now his biggest convert and I don’t think any of the British runners will beat him. I think both he and Peddlers Cross had an off year last season off the back of their battle in this race two years ago. PJ:I was a big Grandouet fan until he missed the Kingwell but I like everything to go smoothly ahead of a championship race so one run in 15 months has to be considered far from ideal and I’d rather the yard were talking him up rather than Binocular. Hurricane Fly is just a little short for me and I’m worried whether Zarkandar will be as effective on the Old Course as he is the New Course where he won the Triumph and International by outstaying his rivals. I don’t think you can kick Rock On Ruby out of the three on his overall form, Cheltenham profile and being much better in bigger fields so 6/1 makes each-way appeal but I am thinking of making him my main bet of the race to place only at odds-against as I can’t see three horses finishing ahead of him. JM:I’ve been so impressed with Hurricane Fly who looks back to his very best. I saw Cinders And Ashes gallop yesterday and that was the best he has looked when I have seen him this season. I have time for Zarkandar who is unbeaten this season and I think will improve again but Hurricane Fly is going to take all the beating. Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle DM:I’ve got to be honest I’ve not seen Pont Alexandre. I’ve been impressed with Taquin Du Seuil though who is improving with every run though he does have quite a high knee action. Whether he needs it deep, I don’t know. PJ:No strong view except that I will be surprised if one of the front three in the market doesn’t win. Hard not to be impressed with Pont Alexandre but his two wins for Willie Mullins have been dominating tiny fields in heavy ground so this will be a different experience. Jonjo O’Neill is adamant that despite his high knee action that Taquin Du Seuil will improve for better ground but all 13 Challow runners to run here have been beaten. Oddly enough I was more impressed with The New One’s defeat at Cheltenham when outstayed by At Fishers Cross than his easyWarwickwin and he would have won at Cheltenham with a better timed ride. His turn of foot could be the telling factor if used at the right time. JM:The Irish won’t hear of defeat for Pont Alexandre and he will be well backed and start favourite for a race in which favourites traditionally have a good record. Taquin Du Seuil is an improving sort and Jonjo’s best chance of the meeting but he will have to be very good indeed to beat Pont Alexandre. RSA Chase DM:We booked Derek O’Connor three weeks ago for Super Duty for the Kim Muir but there is a chance he could still run here if the field was to weaken like if Dynaste goes for the Jewson. Take out Dynaste who is the obvious one and after him it’s a very open race. If Super Duty was to run here, he is the type that usually runs well in the race and he deserves his place. PJ: Dynaste would be bucking a couple of serious trends if successful, the main one being the last 49 winners ran in the same calendar year. He could outclass them but we’ve seen so many obvious form horses get turned over in the RSA so, as a punter, I have to look elsewhere. I have gradually been leaning towards Boston Bob despite just two runs over fences who I didn’t think was right in the Albert Bartlett last year and did well to win over an inadequate 2m5f last time for a stable that know how to win this race. Unioniste may only be five but he has been running in the same races the stable’s other two RSA winners contested and I respect his chance too. JM: Dynaste won the Feltham easily but the record of winners in that race is not brilliant. Back In Focus would be interesting if he ran here. Boston Bob hasn’t looked a natural to me so it might be worth taking a chance of Chartreux each-way if he runs as he is the type to run into the frame. Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase DM:Sprinter Sacre is some tool. I was devastated when he beat Peddlers Cross at Kempton last season but don’t feel so bad about it now. I’d love to see a horse get him off the bridle one day. PJ:As they let Sprinter Sacre kick on when he jumps to the front I just wonder if he will already be clear heading downhill with connections’ sights firmly intent in recording a monster official figure hoping to surpass Master Minded. If Cue Card runs here, then I would fancy him to be second but even further behind than he was when second in last year’s Arkle. JM:I have no intention of taking on Sprinter Sacre so this is a race to watch, admire and then applaud him all the way back to the winner’s enclosure. If I was given a free bet I’d back Cue Card each-way. Ryanair Chase DM:No real view to be honest. I was the under-bidder forChampion Courtso I have always liked him and followed him closely. He is a solid, tough, professional horse but I am not sure he is quite good enough to win. PJ:We’re still in limbo as we are not sure yet which race the front three in the betting head for. The one thing I do know is that I don’t fancy any of those that are confirmed for the race at present like Champion Court, Menorah, Riverside Theatre and Albertas Run. If First Lieutenant runs here, which he should do as he doesn’t fully the stay the Gold Cup trip at top level, then he is my idea of the most likely winner as I think the race is made for him under a positive ride. If he heads for the Gold Cup and Sizing Europe runs here then I would fancy the former Champion Chaser. My gut feeling is Cue Card is marginally more likely to run in the Queen Mother. JM:It’s very hard until we know where the main players are going to run. I can see Roi Du Mee running a big race as feel he is an under-rated horse and the owner sponsors the race. Ladbrokes World Hurdle DM: Peddlers Cross is grand form and he is as good a work horse now as he ever has been. At Musselburgh he travelled great and jumped brilliantly but idled in front but that is what he does. I was looking over him afterwards to see what might be wrong but Jason told me to stop worrying and that he gave him the feel he wanted. I am as much in the dark as anyone about three miles but the Cleeve isn’t great form so this is a winnable race for a horse with real class like Peddlers. I would say there are only two class horses in the race, the other being Oscar Whisky. The Champion Hurdle was never on the agenda. The ground will make a big difference to how this race will be run but it’s a very open contest. PJ:I think Richard Johnson will wind it up from earlier than in the Cleeve on Reve De Sivola, especially if it is run on better ground, in a bid to expose the stamina chinks in the armour of Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross and I fancy him to outstay them. He is the strongest stayer in the race and just keeps on going. Get Me Out Of Here has stamina to prove but he is potential improver for a first try at 3m and has been second at the last three Festivals so lovesCheltenhamin the spring so he could be the fly in the ointment. I don’t think the Irish form is good enough. JM:I have heard that Reve De Sivola is having training problems. It would be great if Peddlers Cross came back to his best. Bog Warrior is better over hurdles than fences so I respect him and especially if it comes up soft. Wonderful Charm wouldn’t be out of this if they ran here rather than the Coral Cup. JCB Triumph Hurdle DM:The ground matters more for this race at the Festival than any other. I’m aFar Westfan. Paul Nicholls was worried about his lack of tactical speed but he quickened well atAscotlast time. Hidden Justice’s form is working out well and I think he is the each-way value. I know Amanda Perrett’s yard always though he would make a super hurdler. PJ:Our Conor should be clear favourite. I thought he was devastating when winning a Grade1 inIrelandlast time that supplied last year’s Triumph 1-2 and that even came off missing his Christmas engagement through coughing so you would think that there is more to come. I am not sure Rolling Star is the ‘now’ horse you look for in the Triumph being more of one for the future. JM:There is only one winner – Our Conor. He destroyed a good field at Leopardstown with his jockey playing with them coming out of the back straight and, when asked, he just when whoosh! Back him. Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle DM:Utopies Des Bordes beat She Ranks Me at Sandown last time and I’m not sure that form is good enough. I like three horses very much; Gevrey Chambertin, Coneygree and African Gold. They may not be brilliant horses but they are real solid who are tough and genuine which is what you need for a race like this. Coneygree was a bit disappointing last time but you should see a better horse moving back up to 3m. PJ:Utopies Des Bordes is already rated high enough to go close and receives a handy 7lbs mares’ allowance so I respect her chance as I do the tough Our Vinnie and I would prefer to take that pair at double figures over the favourites on value grounds. I hear from a colleague who interviewed Mullins two days ago that Champagne Fever could switch from the Supreme to this race and join Ballycasey in the same ownership. Though if it’s very soft, the Supreme would probably go favourite again. JM:Gevrey Chambertin’s jumping is a big plus and he will run a big race if Pipe chooses this route. Ballycasey looks the pick of the Irish. I like the way Utopie Des Bordes won at Sandown and she is dangerous getting the allowances. Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup DM:Bobs Worth is as tough as nails and Silviniaco Conti has impressed in all three wins this season but I’m a Sir Des Champs fan. We’ve been waiting a while for a crop of young horses to arrive on the scene and three have arrived all at once. PJ:I’m of the opinion The Giant Bolster will run another big race returning to the New Course at Cheltenham where he has looked so good twice before and I don’t think he was anyway near fit enough on both starts behind Silviniaco Conti this season and you can forget the King George blip. He still rates good each-way value. Gun to the head and it would be Sir Des Champs who is being brought along steadily and will appreciate a longer trip, better ground and a return toCheltenhamwhere he has twice stormed up the hill. If he is within a length at the final fence, I think he’ll win. I don’t like just one run this season for Bobs Worth and it still niggles me they wanted to bypass Cheltenhaml ast season with Silviniaco Conti who looks so good on flat tracks. JM:Bobs Worth will have been off the track for 104 days but remains a worthy favourite who is made for Cheltenhamw here he is unbeaten in four runs. I don’t think Sir Des Champs was ridden to best advantage on his first two defeats this season but his jumping was better under different tactics last time. I have a slight doubt in my mind whether Silviniaco Conti will enjoy Cheltenham having avoided the place with him. Shoulder Races Donald McCain then ran through some of his other likely runners. DM:Son of Flicka is only 2lbs higher than when he won the Coral Cup last year but we don’t know yet which race he goes for as is the case for the four horses we plan to run in the handicap hurdles as the ground will be a factor. Bourne and Hollow Tree will also run somewhere. Our Mick is an obvious one for the JLT having been third in the race last year as a novice. He would have be raised if finishing second at Cheltenham so maybe it was a blessing in disguise Jason fell off. I’ve successfully persuaded the owner not to run him again since to protect his mark. Kruzhlinin goes for the Pulteney and I think he is a big price and good each-way value.Cloudy Lane always needs two runs and the plan is to go to the Foxhunters but if we are slightly unhappy with him we will wait for Aintree. Hellorboston goes for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper but I don’t think he’s good enough. Diamond King is also in the race and he was more impressive than I expected when he won on debut. We like him but Cheltenham is not the be-all and end-all. Naps DM: Overturn (Arkle) PJ: Our Conor (Triumph) JM: Our Conor (Triumph) SM: Cottage Oak (Foxhunters)
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Re: cheltenham chat thread 2013 if anyones intrested heres a link for Cheltenham preview on 5live tonight http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01r2rfj
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Re: Cheltenham Press Release ~ Handicaps etc.
just to add to the above phil smith the head of the bha handicapping as been tweeting on twiter that "If a horse has a rating of much lower than 135, it is unlikely it is going to get in to the JLT" "X-Country Chase "I would be surprised if you get in under a rating of 128, which is Cool Operator." "Coral Cup: Average bottom weight last four years has been 132, which is around 10st. If you win a race from now its +5lbs. Maximum field 28." "Fred Winter: "I think to get in it might be around a 122 rating, which is 10st 2." "Pertemps + "I would have thought a rating of 132, which is 10st 8 is absolute minimum to get in. 24 maximum field." "Byrne Group Plate: If Wishfull Thinking goes to the Queen Mother, Hunt Ball will have top weight. Race weights go up 5lbs" "Kim Muir: I think 129 (No Secrets) will be cut off. Celtic Giant won off 110, Sunnyhillboy 142" "County Hurdle minimum rating guesstimate 132." "Martin Pipe. Min weight entry will be 11st, which means this morning's fav Katkeau will need to pick up a penalty to get in" "Johnny Henderson: the weights to this could rise a considerable amount if Wishfull Thinking and Tataniano come out. Min rating 130?"heres the one for the weights http://steeplechasing.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/festival-weights.pdf -
Re: Cheltenham Press Release ~ Handicaps etc. heres the one for the weights http://steeplechasing.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/festival-weights.pdf
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Re: cheltenham preview nights 2013 got these off twitter last night James Armstrong @JRFArmstrong is tweeting live from Newcastle:[ tuesday 26th feb ] Believe panel is SQ- Sean Quinn DC- Dougie Costello NH-Niall Hannitty JQ-John Quinn RJ-Rory Jiwani DO- Darren Owen compare Supreme Nov SQ & DC fancies Jezki, NH MYTOY, JQ win Jezki & Dodging Bullets ew. Will MTOY & Jezki take each other on? RJ Melodic R Arkle Simonsig- DC & SQ, Overturn- JQ & NH Oscars Well if runs RJ ew @ 66/1 Champion Hurdle RJ DC SQ & NH Rock on Ruby, JQ- if not Countrywide Flame then Rock On or Zarkandar (or the 3 in a tricast)! Neptune NH- The New One, DC- Sizing Gold ew 33/1 SQ & JQ- Pont Alexandre & Whisp gallery ew SQ Puffin Billy ew RSA Chase RJ- Hadrians App ew, JQ- in bar for this one too open, NH- Unioniste? DC- join boss in bar.. SQ-Dynaste Champion Chase- Sprinter Sacre all round. Sit back & enjoy it... Ryanair SQ- Cue Card, DC- Champion Court, NH- For Non Stop ew, JQ- Riverside Theatre ew & Cue Card. RJ- Sizing E World Hurdle SQ-Monksland poss Solwhit ew, DC his ride Trustan Times ew @ 40/1 as does NH. NH also like Peddlers JQ Oscar Whisky & Celestrial halo ew with NH thinking similarly. RJ- also likes Monksland. Triumph Hurdle DC- hedging with his two poss Kashmir & Hidden Justice undecided as to what he will ride @ mo SQ- Hidden Justice finish up hill (biased as runs syndicate) JQ- Our Conor to beat his (ground) JQ-Kasmir Peak maybe better suited to Aintree. Hidden Justice- grind it out NH-Hidden Justice & Rolling Star. RJ- Rolling Star to improve... Albert Bartlett NH- Cloudy Copper 14/1, SQ- African Gold- v keen on him. RJ- African Gold & At Fishers Cross Gold Cup RJ- The Giant Bolster ew @16/1 to win Sir Des. JQ- Sir Des & Cape Trib ew NH- Imperial Commander ew Gold Cup NH- Siviano main selection, SQ- Sir Des Champs DC- First Lieu or Imperial Commander. Other races DC- Bathwick Brave in Con Jocs race. SQ- Aye Up Charlie (nap) in Jewson, NH- Rival Destruval Rival Des in 4m. JQ- Get Me Out of Here in whichever handicap he runs in. RJ- Captain Conan in Jewson Triumph Our Conner big pick for the panel Most overhyped horse ? Barry Geraghty said Sire DES Champs is the most overhyped, swan said Cue Card, Nicky doesn't want to answer! @Imperial Racing was tweeting... Glasgow Preview Nick Luck AP McCoy Barry Geraghty Charlie Swan Nicky Henderson Lucinda Russell Arthur Moore Supreme Charlie Swan rates My Tent Or Yours as a cert and @AP_McCoy hopes he will ride Charlie and @BarryJGeraghty think Une Atout is the danger Nicky Henderson says that both River and MTOY both worked well today Arkle Ian Ferguson who trained Simonsig as a PTP runner described him as a 'wimp' as a youngster and Overturn frightens him Champ Hurdle @BarryJGeraghty says 'The Fly' looks hard to beat Nicky says there is nothing between Fly and Binocular @AP_McCoy thinks Fly is the winner but think Zarkander is a danger. Nicky says a dead heat with his two. Lucinda thinks Cinders And Ashes is a forgotten horse on good ground. Swan is backing ROR again! RSA @AP_McCoy 'if Dynaste was mine id run in the Jewson-best horse in the race!' Think BJG tipped Dynaste Nicky Henderson 'if Dynaste goes Jewson the Captain Conan may go Arkle' Ryanair Arthur Moore 'if Cue Card goes Champ Chase Sizing Europe will go Ryanair and win' Nicky Henderson think Riverside Theatre is back!!!! But thinks Cue Card is hard to beat
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Re: GOOD Ground Anticipated For Opening Day of Cheltenham. just took this from racing post Cheltenham unlikely to water before festival CHELTENHAM clerk of the course Simon Claisse on Tuesday cast doubt on the likelihood of having to water before the festival after a revised weather forecast predicted rain in the lead-up to the meeting. Claisse said the rate the track was drying out had slowed and that the going remained a mix of soft and good to soft on the Old, New and Cross Country course. "I had an update yesterday from John Kettley, who is suggesting that from Thursday of next week until the beginning of the festival there will be rain," he said. "His range was between 12 and 15mm, more on the Saturday, Sunday and Monday than on the Thursday and Friday. It's still a long way out to be certain, but on the basis of that forecast I could confidently rule out watering."
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Re: cheltenham preview nights 2013 got sent this one by a friend so thought i would share warwick racecourse friday 28th febuary The Panel had a Henderson-feel to it with stable jockey Andrew Tinkler (AT) and his former assistant (and now trainer in his own right) Tom Symonds (TS) alongside broadcaster and commentator Stewart Machin (SM) and Presenting was P.R. racing man Roger Hart (RH) who works very closely with a number of racecourses and jumps trainers (notably Jonjo O’Neill) and interjected here and there with snippets. WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE AT:My Tent Or Yours won in the manner we expected him to at Newbury. AP was at pains to teach him how to jump behind a wall of horses in the build up to that race. I think they are doing right by the horse to run him in the Supreme rather than the Champion Hurdle as it was a handicap last time. River Maigue makes some each-way appeal as Cheltenham will suit him a lot better than when beaten by Far West at Ascot in a sprint. TS:I actually broke in My Tent Or Yours with Corky but that is as far as my involvement went with him. All I would say even though he looks very high class is that the yard have had lots of very high class horses beaten in the Supreme in recent years like Spinter Sacre, Binocular and Darlan so 6/4 is short enough. I could not fail to be impressed by the way Melodic Rendezvous stormed up the Exeter hill regardless of Puffin Billy’s problem and he would be my pick at the prices. SM:On ratings My Tent Or Yours is going to be hard to beat but over the years many supposedly good things have been beaten in the Supreme including the odds-on Dunguib not long ago. I’d personally shop around for better value and Melodic Rendezvous appeals. I know we can’t take his defeat of Puffin Billy at face value but he still impresses, he is not short of speed and is a Grade 1 winner. RACING POST ARKLE TROPHY AT:There is much argument in the yard who is the better horse, Sprinter Sacre or Simonsig, but I think Simonsig is better. But can you back at odds-on in the Arkle? They would never work together though or blink and you would miss it. I rode in the race Overturn won at Musselburgh and he’s so quick. Captain Conan will run in the Jewson. TS:It’s going to be a bloody good race between Simonsig and Overturn. It’s just the way Nicky talks Simonsig that tells me he is something very special as he does that about very few. He has more scope than Sprinter Sacre to tackle longer distances but whether he has the same natural jumping acumen, I don’t know. Overturn is the modern-day Sea Pigeon but Simonsig could be something exceptional. SM:I think Simonsig will win. He stays further will is an attribute found in most winners and I’d back him now at 5/6 as I can’t see him getting beaten and is likely to shorten. He travels so easily through his races that I don’t think even Overturn will get him off the bridle and Geraghty is not stupid so won’t take him on or sit him too far or give him too much rope either. STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE AT:Binocular is the forgotten horse of the race. Let me tell you he is in super nick and like his old self. It was probably a weak Champion Hurdle he won but it could be a speed race this year and he looks a picture and a day. AP only has to jump four flights in quick succession on him to know if he is back and I was schooling in behind Binocular the other day and Binocular was going so fast he put my horse on the floor. Grandouet is fine despite missing the Kingwell. TS:Paul Nicholls says Zarkandar was never right last year and he has had a wind operation since last Festival so I expect him to run much better. It’s a difficult race this year and hard to gauge the likes of Binocular and Cinders And Ashes plus Countrywide Flame has not had his end-to-end gallop this season. Zarkandar for me. SM:6/1 about Rock On Ruby who has such a good course record is too big. I was interviewing Ladbrokes’ Mike Dillon and he said should anyone be frightened of Hurricane Fly on his 1¼ lengths’ defeat of Peddlers Cross when he won the Champion Hurdle? Then again, I see Ladbrokes are shortest about him so I don’t know what to make of that. NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE AT:“This is a machine†were my words to Sam Twiston-Davies after we pulled up after The New One won at Warwick when I rode the second. He was gone without Sam letting out an inch of rein and I couldn’t believe it. Sam kicked himself next time at Cheltenham when At Fishers Cross outstayed him but he will be ridden more patiently here. TS: Pont Alexandre has limited experience for a race like this and has been getting easy leads in small fields in heavy ground so far in Ireland. I like Taquin Du Seuil who is trained by a master at getting them ready for the big day. SM:The New One just got outstayed by the stouter stayer last time but I was really impressed with him atWarwickso I make him my main fancy ahead of Taquin Du Seuil. Pont Alexandre’s price has plenty to do will Mullins’ comments that he could be the best novice he has trained outside of Hurricane Fly. RH:Taquin Du Seuil has been working brilliantly for a good while and AP will ride. Jonjo is convinced that he will be even better on better ground. RSA CHASE AT:Hadrian’s Approach is a bit babyish but he is getting better and will stay up the hill so is good each-way value. I do think Dynaste will be too good however and he can defy the race stats. Boston Bob would be a worthy favourite for the NH Chase if he ran there instead which looks the race for him. TS:The strongest stayer tends to win and I have some doubts whether Dynaste is as much about stamina as some others. I love the way Hadrian’s Approach does things and he is one of Nicky’s that has gone under the radar a bit. SM:I think Boston Bob is the value. I was impressed with his win last time over too short a trip and he jumps well and stays very well. Dynaste is too short for a non-grinder, I don’t like flashy types for the RSA. SPORTINGBET.COM QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE AT:If you are attending do take the trouble to see Sprinter Sacre in the paddock, he is the real deal and I just can’t see him getting beaten especially as this is a weak 2m chasing division this season. Finian’s Rainbow is a confidence horse and has not been running well enough. I have only had only school on Sprinter Sacre and he was very good. Nico De Boinville has been the making of him. TS:Sprinter Sacre has everything and I can’t see anything getting near. Cue Card can be second if he runs here even if his mother was a slow as a hearse. SM:If Cue Card’s connections don’t take Sprinter Sacre on here then Somersby can finish second as this is the only race he will run in if he runs at the Festival according to connections and he will be ridden to attain the best possible placing. RYANAIR CHASE AT:Riverside Theatre got the ride of the season to win it last year and has been treated for ulcers since pulling up in the King George. My gut feeling is that Champion Court is dangerous if he gets into a rhythm on a course he likes. Cue Card will find this race much harder to dominate if he runs here. TS:Champion Court keeps getting beat when he meets a good one so Sizing Europe appeals from a class point of view if they run here instead of the Queen Mother and they might as he looks like he might need this trip now. SM:No strong view until we know what is running but it is worth noting that all of Cue Card’s wins have been in single-field fields. RH:Albertas Run will run here first time out. LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE AT:Oscar Whisky will need a very canny ride to win over 3m, even on better ground than in the Cleeve. Richard Johnson is sure to kick on even further out on better ground on Reve De Sivola to offset that. TS:Reve De Sivola has been unbelievable since returning to hurdles winning the Long Walk and Cleeve and the jockey is made for him. Oscar Whisky stays 3m but he is not as good as over shorter trips. I don’t think Monksland’s form is good enough and feel that Peddlers Cross has never got over his Champion Hurdle run. It’s got to be Reve De Sivola as his form is all there. SM:It will come down to how the race is run on the day. Oscar Whisky is about the same price this year with no Big Buck’s as he was last year so if you think he stays then he is probably worth a bet in a weaker race. Smad Place at 20/1 would not surprise me but I am unconvinced that Peddlers Cross is a stout enough stayer. RH:No decision has yet to be taken on whether Get Me Out Of Here runs but it is under consideration. He has been second at the last three Festivals. JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE AT: Rolling Star is a lovely horse but he may lack a fraction of experience. He won at Cheltenham like we thought he would but it wouldn’t surprise me if things happen a bit quick for him. The speed and accuracy ofFar West’s jumping atAscotwas impressive and he proved there he can sprint having shown he stays very well earlier in the season. Rolling Star will be a better horse than Far West next season but I am not sure about this. TS:I loved the way Far West did it atAscotbut Our Conor looked mighty good to me at Leopardstown that he appears to be the one to beat. SM: I would rather see the Adonis Hurdle before committing but, so far, Far West would be at the top of my list. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE AT: Utopie Des Bordes has superb form in France and is a horse for now as she be will having foals in a couple of season’s time. The ground was heavy when she was winning at Auteuil but she rides like a good-ground horse. She may only be a pony but she has a big heart and a good cruising speed. TS:No real view. SM:African Gold makes each-way appeal at 16/1 being a strong stayer who the Twiston-Davies yard excel with and they really like him at home. He brings pretty strong handicap form to this novice race. BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP AT:Bobs Worth looks like a Plumpton Monday horse until you school him or take him to the racecourse which is where he goes on Saturday. He races handily on a loose rein and no horse will come up the hill better or has a better course record as he is unbeaten in four runs at Cheltenham. Silviniaco Conti got a great ride to beat Long Run at Haydock and gets into a good rhythm but he will need to in this much bigger field. Nico says Long Run took two weeks longer to recover from the King George than in previous years. TS:I believe cheekpieces will be on Long Run for the first time in a race. The Gold Cup can send young horses the wrong way and he was only 6 when he won it. Bobs Worth has loads in his favour and even had the pace to beat the Champion Hurdle winner in a novice hurdle two seasons ago. However, I fancied Sir Des Champs at the start of the season and still do. I’m not convinced Silviniaco Conti is a Gold Cup winner. SM:Silviniaco Conti’s jumping impresses me. Everything has gone to plan this season and I make him the bet of the meeting. If you fancy Long Run then The Giant Bolster is too big to be three times his price though I’m not sure he’s good enough to win it.
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Re: Jump Racing > Sunday 24th February 3:45 Fontwell – Totepool National Spirit Hurdle PROSPECT WELLS failed to stay last time, but is a classy horse and this two and half miles trip should suit. Last season he proved himself as one of the top novice hurdlers and finished close in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, where he stayed on well. First time out this season, he gave Zarkandar a serious race at Wincanton, in receipt of 17 pounds, but considering what the winner has gone on to do since, it was a fair run. He usually travels and jumps well in his races and has a good chance here.
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday 23rd Feb 2:35 Fairyhouse – Attheraces Bobbyjo Chase This should prove a very informative race looking ahead to the Grand National and my fancy is QUITO DE LA ROQUE. On his day he is top class and has won 7 of his 12 starts over fences. In 2011 he beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal and this season he ran a pleasing race their behind Kauto Stone and First Lieutenant on his seasonal debut. The form of that race was boosted when First Lieutenant ran so well in the Hennessy and the Lexus and Quito De La Roque has won well since. Last time out, over an inadequate trip, he stayed on well to beat Roi du Mee in testing ground and on the same terms, over this trip, I expect him to win again and he should be hard to beat. 3:50 Kempton – Racing Plus Chase ROLLING ACES is one of the `On the up’ horse and has done us proud this season, improving from a mark of 128 to 149. He is at his all-time high rating now and it will not be easy, but he is improving rapidly and connections are confident of a bold show in this. The form of his point-to-point debut looks better all the time, now that Rocky Creek has won a Grade Two contest over fences and the form of his success at Ascot has worked out extremely well, with several future winners coming out of the race. It is also worth noting that he beat Opening Batsman by 11 lengths at Wincanton over Christmas and that horse won next time out. Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and he should run a big race. At a bigger price, I really like DUKE OF LUCCA. He was a fair hurdler (rated 149 at his peak) and progressed well over fences last season, winning three times and was also second in the Grade Two Pendil Chase held on this card last year. He has a strong preference for decent ground, so the recent drying conditions are very much in his favour. He ran a good race on his seasonal debut, finishing second to Roberto Goldback on ground softer than ideal, but is 9 pounds better off in this, so is fancied to turn the tables. He struggled in the Hennessy, but again the ground was too soft and now races from a four pounds lower mark, so he has a lot in his favour. A rating of just 140 looks fair and I am sure he is a better horse than that, so odds of 12/1 look too good to resist.
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Cheltenham Festival Preview Evening at Exeter Racecourse.Thursday 21st February Channel 4′s Tanya Stevenson acted as compere for a star-studded panel, which included three of the top trainers in Britain – Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and David Pipe. They were joined by Paul Binfield (Paddy Power), Andrew King (Racing Post Journalist) and Nick Schofield (Grade 1 winning Jockey). A top-class panel, who between them have won everything there is to win in National Hunt Racing, provided a fascinating insight into this year’s festival and the main protagonists. PN – Paul Nicholls DP – David Pipe PH – Phillip Hobbs AK – Andrew King PB – Paul Binfield NS – Nick Schofield TS – Tanya Stevenson Supreme Novices PN: Dodging Bullets has done nothing wrong; he ran a very good race behind Countrywide Flame last year and has to be in with a chance. He needs an end to end gallop and this race will suit him. My Tent Or Yours looks invincible on his last performance. DP: None of mine should be troubling the judge, Flying Cross may be an outsider but it would be a very big ask. PH: Cheltenian has come out of this week’s race well, and he is very decent. We will decide this week whether to go to Cheltenham or skip the Festival and have a prep race ahead of Aintree. AK: It’s very difficult to move away from My Tent Or Yours – he should win. PB: My Tent Or Yours is a long way clear of Jezki and we should see this at the festival. NS: The general feeling is that we will head for the Supreme with Melodic Rendezvous. Champagne Fever will make it a tough stamina test and we are hoping that My Tent Or Yours won’t stay up the hill. Arkle AK: Simonsig is the most likely winner. Overturn will set the pace and in so doing set the race up for Simonsig, who looks a cut above the rest. PN: Fago was going to win last time out but his jumping let him down; he is a typical French jumper. He runs on Friday and he’d have to win for us to go to Cheltenham. He has enough speed and although Simonsig and Overturn do look very impressive they have enjoyed success with a soft lead in small fields – they won’t get that at Cheltenham and I don’t think they are as nailed on as people are suggesting. PH: I’d rather go with Overturn, he is the best hurdler of the two of them. DP: His Excellency won’t run in this, he will go for the Grand Annual. I personally like Overturn for the race. AK: Looking at outsiders with a chance, it is difficult, maybe Fago if he wins tomorrow but it’s realistically between the two market leaders. PB: Arvika Ligeonniere could be the one to beat, he looks very exciting over 2 miles and at 10/1 I would rather have him than Simonsig and Overturn at shorter prices. Champion Hurdle PN: Zarkandar won the triumph and had problems here last year, he was coughing, but he is a different horse this year. He is workmanlike and never flashy, but I can’t see a lot between the top four, mine, Hurricane Fly, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby. AK: Rock On Ruby will win; it was certainly no fluke last year. He won the race on merit and will reverse the form with Zarkandar and Grandouet from earlier this season. PN: Cinders And Ashes on this year’s form is not good enough. PB: Hurricane Fly has not been beating much in Ireland and I would be happy to lay him and go with Rock On Ruby. DP: I think Hurricane Fly will regain his crown. There is not a lot dividing the top four. PN: Ruby will ride the Fly. He won the race on him before and won’t get off him, who would if he won it on him before. Khyber Kim ran a great race last weekend but won’t be too much of a danger. I can’t see where the pace will come from – maybe Countrywide Flame or Rock On Ruby as he is a bit of a stayer. It’s certainly something we will need to think about. Neptune DP: Broadway Buffalo is a decent horse but his jumping isn’t the best. He runs at Warwick on Friday and he needs to run well there. Gevrey Chambertin is going to go for the Albert Bartlett. Ak: Pont Alexandra looks very good, but the ground is changing. Taquin Du Seuil could be the one for me; his only defeat came to My Tent Or Yours. PB: Pont Alexandre is the first Irish banker of the meeting. I think he is an absolute monster and his action suggests that good ground would be perfect for him. RSA Chase DP: Dynaste’s owner is here tonight to find out where his horse is running! We have been joking about the ground but we are keeping our options open. He has the ability to win both (RSA & Jewson), if it’s good we will go for the RSA if it’s soft the Jewson will be on the cards. Our Father is very good on his day, but this tends to be first time out. Goulanes isn’t flashy but has a great attitude, we may go for this or the 4 mile race, if he went in this he would need every yard. AK: David will win with Dynaste if he runs. PN: Rocky Creek will probably go to Aintree as Cheltenham won’t really suit him. Unioniste will run in this unless the ground comes up very soft. PB: I want to lay Dynaste, as stamina is an issue. Super Duty looks interesting on good ground and at 20/1 he looks each way value. Champion Chase PH: Wishfull Thinking will most likely run in this and it would be quite nice to finish second to Sprinter Sacre. PN: Sprinter Sacre is nailed on for this – unbeatable. Sanctuaire will run in this and should finish second. AK: Sprinter Sacre was my lay of the meeting 12 months ago, but he has got to be a sure fire winner. PB: Sizing Europe is most likely to run in the Ryanair mainly because Sprinter is an aeroplane. Rest of Wednesday PN: Wonderful Charm is going for the Coral Cup. He looks a really nice horse but I’m a bit in the dark as we have been unable to run him due to the ground. Jewson Novices PH: Tony Star isn’t really good enough for this. AK: Captain Conan is favourite, but by no means is he home and hosed. Nobody knows where Dynaste will be running. PB: The Henderson yard is very bullish about Captain Conan and 9/2 looks good value. I personally like Aupcharlie over in Ireland who was beaten last time out by Tofino Bay who would have relished the ground. Ryanair PH: Its Menorah’s fourth festival and the plan will be to run him in this. DP: Zaynar will be going for the Byrne Group Plate. Grands Crus has a racecourse gallop soon and we aren’t sure where he is going yet. PH: It was going to be very close between Captain Chris and Cue Card on Saturday so he must be in with a great chance in this. PB: Cue Card will go for this and will be pretty tough to beat, but I really like First Lieutenant based on his form this year. NS: Hunt Ball won’t run in this and will be heading for a handicap. PN: Ghizao will run in this, he shouldn’t be good enough here, but he ran a good race at the weekend. World Hurdle PN: I’ve always wanted to run Celestial Halo over a trip, he ran really well behind Zarkandar on Saturday after a long layoff and at 66/1 he looks a huge price for this race. AK: Oscar Whisky is the class act in the race and there have to be question marks over Reve De Sivola if the ground dries up. DP: Reve De Sivola is very ground dependent; if it’s soft he is in with a great shout. PH: Monksland looks the best of the Irish string. PB: The Bog Warrior looked very good when beating Zaidpour; he is the one to look forward to. AK: I wouldn’t rule out Peddlers Cross. NS: The Bog Warrior is the one for me; his Irish form looks really good. PN: If the ground is good, Oscar Whisky will be very tough to beat. Rest of Thursday PN: Sam Winner looks very nice in the Pertemps. He ran really well in the qualifier and beat Peddlers Cross in the Bumper for Jumpers at Kempton the other week. JCB Triumph Hurdle PN: Far West goes for this and showed a great turn of foot at Ascot last week. It turned into a bit of a sprint, but he has done everything right so far. DP: I have no runners here. I was very impressed with Our Conor at Leopardstown and he looks the one to beat. AK: My feelings are that the Triumph is a very poor race this year. Again, it all depends on the ground, as most of this form is on soft conditions, meaning there could be a big upset if the ground comes up good. PB: Far West shortened in the market today. I do agree with David Pipe – Our Conor looked quite smart. PN: Lac Fontana runs this Saturday and if he wins that, he will run here and could be a dark horse. Albert Bartlett PN: I have nothing good enough to run here. PH: Whisper County runs here. He only has had one run with us and is actually for sale! He stays well and looks a nice chaser for next season. DP: I will have five or six in this. Although I would be surprised if one of them wins this, I have to find six jockeys first! AK: Fishers Cross has an outstanding chance here. He goes on both grounds, but I think he will be better on a sounder surface. TS: African Gold looks a nice type and is a battler. Also take note that Rebecca Curtis and Tony McCoy have a remarkable strike rate this season, so keep an eye on that partnership. Gold Cup PH: Captain Chris is in good form since his Ascot run and goes for the Gold Cup. I feel he will be suited by good ground and has won here before. PN: Silviniaco Conti had a good season as a novice last year. He is nothing flashy but he jumps and stays. I think the race will be between the three novices; ourselves, Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth. It’s a good looking Gold Cup. DP: No runners here. I am going with Bobs Worth; he is the best of this lot I think. I would like The Giant Bolster at a big price, I have heard reports that they have been having problems with the gallops at home, but that is all sorted now. AK: I think it is a year for the novices really. Bobs Worth seems to have a touch of class, but 5/2 is not a price to be backing him. PB: I think it will fall the way of Sir Des Champs. Captain Chris looks a nice each way bet at 20/1. NS: Long Run is only an eight-year-old and can come back and win it. TS: I have always had a soft spot for Colm Murphy’s Quito De La Roque. If he does go for this I will be having him each way at 66/1. Charity Bets (£200 each). PN: £100 each way on Dodging Bullets. PH: £200 win on Overturn. AK: £200 win on Colour Squadron. DP: £200 win on Cue Card in the Ryanair. NS: £200 win on Cadlo in the JLT. TS: £200 win on Our Mick on the Tuesday.
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Re: cheltenham chat thread 2013 im going to the exeter preview tonight and a few more in the next couple of weeks so i will put them up in the next day or two as i did last year
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wow can not believe its 19 days till the festival and theres hardly any activity on here at all, this time last year this was one of the most active section of the whole forum i know other members have not allways got time due to other commitments ect but its rather disappointing when the biggest meeting of the whole national hunt season is 19 days away and no one seems intrested
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1:30 Ascot – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle At Huntingdon SAUSALITO SUNRISE made his racecourse debut and I must admit he really stood out in the parade ring, I will go as far to say he is one of the best horses that I have ever seen on looks. He ran a fair race that day, finishing second in a bumper and he is certainly on my list of horses to follow. On his next start he was subject of a gamble at Ludlow (backed from 6/1 to 10/3) and looked to have the race easily won when jumping the last clear of the pack, only to be caught on the line. He finished well clear of the pack however and the Hobbs team was not in great form at the time, so now with the stable in better form and with that experience behind him, I expect him to run very well. The slight drop in trip should also help and although he faces a couple of decent horses, I can see him improving past them and winning. 2:05 Ascot – Sodexo Prestige Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase ROCKY CREEK is proving to be a very good recruit to chasing and is strongly fancied to win. He showed plenty of promise on his debut, when it was only the fact that he needed the run that cost him victory against Harry Topper, who looks a top class horse in the making. He then made the decent Molotof look ordinary at Doncaster and that form has been franked by an easy win for Molotof at Warwick last week. His final start was at Warwick and he jumped and travelled well throughout, eventually pulling clear of a decent field to win by 15 lengths. Tour Des Champs fell that day when still going well and is clearly a danger on six pounds better terms, but I have total confidence in this horse and I don’t think we have seen his full potential yet. The ground and track should be ideal for him and I expect him to win. 2:35 Gowran Park – Shantou at Burgage Stud Maiden Hurdle DJAKADAM was very unlucky last time out as he was well clear when stumbling at the final hurdle at Thurles. He had looked very promising up to that point, jumping and travelling well and is confidently selected to gain compensation here. That run was on heavy ground and his only start in France was also on heavy, so the ground should be fine and with the Mullins team in such good form, it will take a good one to beat him. The winner at Thurles has run well in a handicap subsequently and with Djakadam still holding an entry in the Triumph Hurdle, I am sure connections are fully expecting victory. 2:55 haydock park - Betfred Grand National Trial (Grade 3) As Silver By Nature is the only winner of this race in the last decade to have finished outside the first three on his most recent start, it seems best to side with runners arriving here in form. This spells trouble for the likes of Giles Cross, Lackamon, Lively Barrow and the afore mentioned Silver By Nature who all arrive here having finished outside the placings last time. It therefore seems imperative to side with a horse heading the right way rather than one looking to bounce back to form. This level at which previous performances have come is also vitally important with eight of the last ten winners having recorded a victory in Class 2 company or higher prior to contesting this Grade 3 event. Lackamon, Viking Blond, Well Refreshed, Trigger The Light and Mac Aeda all fail to make the cut in this years field and will be looking to emulate both Giles Cross and Silver By Nature who both bucked this trend when winning their respective renewals. In terms of official ratings, the benchmark for this contest looks to be set at 135 with eight of the ten most recent winners having achieved this mark or higher before coming here. This is perhaps surprising given the extra weight these horses had to carry in conditions which are often on the testing side. This narrows the field to five with Monbeg Dude, Giles Cross, Cannington Brook, Teaforthree and top-weight Silver By Nature all making the grade in this year’s renewal. Having briefly alluded to the stamina-sapping conditions that participants often encounter, it is essential that potential winners of the race have the necessary stamina. This is supported by the fact that nine of the last ten winners had all recorded previous victories over three miles or further. However with this year’s entire field fitting the bill, we will need to use other factors in order to find the likely winner. It could be said that the attribute which is taken for granted most often in National Hunt racing is the ability of a horse to jump the obstacles in front of it, which is especially important over longer distances where horses can get very tired and lose concentration. This can be quantified by noting that of the last ten winners; eight of them had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers. This is bad news for supporters of Silver By Nature, Rigadin De Beauchene and Triggerman who all have three failures to their names on their respective race records. With no single age-group appearing to dominate this race you would be forgiven for thinking that there isn’t much of a trend in this department. However, with seven of the last ten winners younger than ten it may still be worthy of some consideration. In fact, a horse aged less than ten has won twenty of the last thirty renewals of this race since 1980 and although Giles Cross, Rambling Minster and Forest Gunner have all defied the trend it still looks to be worth following those towards the younger end of the age spectrum. Trigger The Light, Silver By Nature, Giles Cross, Triggerman and Neptune Equester can all be considered the elder statesman of this race and will hope that there is life in the old legs yet. The final factor worthy of mention is that eight of the last ten winners had run within the last sixty days prior to winning here. Lackamon and Trigger The Light have both had 84 days since they ran on the same card at Haydock in November whereas Silver By Nature will be attempting to return from a mammoth 679 day absence having not been seen in public since finishing well behind Ballabriggs in the Grand National nearly two years ago. This trend would suggest that race fitness is very important when looking for selections and given the strength of this trend, we should probably be looking elsewhere for selections. Shortlist MONBEG DUDE Teaforthree Cannington Brook Conclusion Cannington Brook represents the Colin Tizzard yard and comes here on the back of a decent runner-up effort behind Carruthers at Ffos Las and prior to that his victory over Merry King by the narrowest margins marked him as a horse heading the right way. He likes running at Haydock having recorded three of his four victories here and looks well placed to put in another solid effort this time. Teaforthree marked himself as a stayer of some ability when winning the 4m Amateur Riders’ Chase at last year’s Cheltenham festival and following a disappointing run on his reappearance, a sixth placed finish in the Hennessy and a gutsy second in the Welsh National has done nothing but support that opinion. He appears to relish the challenge of jumping fences and was staying on at the end of 3m6f last time, so the trip should pose no problems. He comes here with a big chance and looks set for another bold showing on Saturday. The marginal preference is for the only horse that finished ahead of Teaforthree in the Welsh National, MONBEG DUDE. In fact this wasn’t the only time he had finished ahead of Rebecca Curtis’ nine-year-old having won the Henrietta Knight Chase atCheltenham in November. His jumping has been known to cause him problems but it is worth noting that he has only unseated or fallen once in six attempts over fences. His rival Teaforthree has to give him 3lb less than he did at Chepstow but I don’t really see this making too much of a difference and I fancy Michael Scudamore’s eight-year-old to continue on his progressive upward curve. 3:10 Gowran Park – Red Mills Trial Hurdle ZAIDPOUR has an excellent record going right handed at distances shy of three miles and also has a record of 112 at Gowran Park. Heavy ground suits him just fine and although he concedes weight all round, is confidently expected to win again with his stable in such good form. He was a very easy winner of this race last year and ran Hurricane Fly to 2 ½ lengths at Punchestown on heavy ground, so it will take a below par run for him to be beaten. That is unlikely however as on his last ten starts, he has run to a rating of at least 152 and if you combine all the runs over hurdles by his rivals, on only two occasions has one achieved a rating of 152 or more. He looks banker material. 3:50 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase The ground is likely to be very testing for this and I can see some horses finishing very tired. Finian’s Rainbow is clearly a classy horse, but he is not suited by heavy ground and there must also be some stamina doubts, so he is not for me in this. Captain Chris won well on heavy ground at Ascot earlier in the season and after his fine second in the King George, I can see why he is favourite, but he had a very hard race that day and I am not convinced that he will repeat the level of that form. Cue Card made a mistake early on in the King George and as a result ran too free and did not get home. He had looked very good prior to that however and I can see him running a big race over this trip. The one I really like though is SOMERSBY. He has a great record on right-handed tracks, handles soft ground well and looks as though this trip should suit. He is a classy horse and ran well behind Master Minded here in 2011 and I was impressed by him last time out behind Sprinter Sacre. He ran well for a long way that day and should improve for the run. I expect him to be spot on for this and on a track that suits him, I fancy him to win.
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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race reverse the above
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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race confirmed now a n/runner
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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race
taken from elsewhere Trainer Peter Casey says Flemenstar is "very unlikely" to run at the Cheltenham Festival in March after being found to have a lung infection. The Stephen Curran-owned eight-year-old, who finished second to Sir Des Champs in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on Saturday, was diagnosed with the problem on Monday. He is instead likely to be aimed at the big Aintree meeting in April. Casey told Press Association Sport: "He'll be out for two to three weeks. "It's a bad lung infection. The vets found he had it today. "He's going to be all right in the long term, but I would say Cheltenham is very unlikely now. "The jockey (Andrew Lynch) thought something was wrong on Saturday and it looks like he was right. "We'll probably look at Aintree now." Flemenstar holds entries at Cheltenham in the Betfred Gold Cup, the Ryanair Chase and the sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase.Flemenstar looks likely to miss Cheltenham now!
cheltenham preview nights 2013
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: cheltenham preview nights 2013 Huntingdon Preview Evening Panel: Richard Hoiles (RH), Phil Smith (PS), Luke Tarr (LT), Paul Kieley (PK) and John Ferguson (JF) Supreme Novices’: RH – One of the most successful races the Irish have at the Festival whilst recent years have proved expensive for favourite followers. LT – The market revolves around My Tent Or Yours – the general public will latch on to him and he will go off at around 11/10. PS – I look at the last 5 years generally and the end of season rating of the winner tends to be in the low 150s – My Tent Or Yours is already rated 162, his success in a quality handicap gives confidence to the mark whilst AP has proved a good judge when given a choice in recent years (He rides My Tent Or Yours, rather than Jezki). I would give a mention to Un Atout as well. JF – I would be a backer of My Tent Or Yours at 7/4, he was phenomenal at Newbury and I think he is a penalty kick but Dodging Bullets is solid and looks a good each way bet whilst Melodic Rendevous should run well. PK – My Tent Or Yours will encounter a lot of different things, he is a flat bred horse and doesn’t have the speed figures to back up his rating. Has he got the stamina? I’m a huge fan of Melodic Rendezvous and I’m sure he would be shorter if he was trained elsewhere. RH – Cheltenham tempos are like nothing else – everything happens just a bit faster. I think Dodging Bullets is worth keeping in mind. Arkle: LT – If you fancy a My Tent Or Yours/Simonsig double – back it now! This is a one horse race. JF – Overturn and Simonsig are both athletes. Overturn will go off quick and it will be down to the quality of the jumping as to who wins. RH – Arvika Legionneire the third best at the prices but if he leads he could have a huge role to play in the race. PK – The Irish jockeys I have spoken too not big on their chances in this one. PS – Ratings wise over the last 5 years you have to be 160+, the top 2 are! I can’t have an Irish winner of this race. I hope Overturn wins but front runners don’t have a great record in this race. PK – I think there is a little bit of the Sprinter Sacre performance last year in the price of Simonsig. Champion Hurdle: JF – Hurricane Fly has had 2 gimmes this year, I’m not saying he won’t win but…. LT – Hurricane Fly is the lay of the week and the next 3 in the market (Zarkander, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby) are cracking each way bets. PS – It’s a good Champion Hurdle but I can’t understand the price of Hurricane Fly. Zarkander is a fascinating runner but there isn’t anything wrong with Rock On Ruby either. PK – I’m worried about where the pace is going to come from but I think Rock On Ruby will win. There have been a lot of rumours about how well Binocular has been working, I can’t see him winning but JP can! RH – Rock On Ruby won on merit last year and the ground will suit him over Zarkander, who will come off the bridle at some stage even if he wins (for in running punters), but it’s Rock On Ruby for me. PK – I think Zarkander would be a banker in the World Hurdle. JF – Cotton Mill is still in the Champion but I’m siding towards the County Hurdle but I want the option left open at this stage as I may change depending on how well Pine Creek runs on Saturday (Imperial Cup) – he should run well! LT – Worth mentioning that we have seen a lot of money for Cinders And Ashes this week. Neptune: RH – Pont Aleaxandre the Irish banker? PK – He has a huge reputation but we don’t know how good he is, it could be a very strong race with The New One and Taquin Du Soeuil involved but I am concerned about a reported bug in Twiston-Davis’ yard. RH – There are lots of bullish reports about Taquin Du Soeuil but the Challow has been a bad trial. PS – The Irish novice hurdlers are quite interesting but it’s not a race I have a strong view on at this stage. In general though, I much prefer a horse at the Festival that has run in the calendar year. RH – Chatterbox of interest? JF – Puffin Billy and Chatterbox are both of interest – there seem to be question marks over a few at the top of the market so it may be worth looking elsewhere. RSA and Jewson: RH – Dynaste is drifting for the RSA and shortening for the Jewson…. PK – The fields are up in the air but I think Dynaste will win whichever race he runs in. RH – My worry with Dynaste is that he may just be an early season horse. PS – Dynaste is at 161 – Denman was on that mark after he won the RSA! RH – Would the Jewson be the soft option? PS – No – it’s not an easy route but if you don’t like Dynaste in the RSA then Rocky Creek and Super Duty could be interesting. LT – Dynaste is visually the most impressive National Hunt horse this year but he would be my banker in the Jewson but I would take him on in the RSA. RH – I’d throw Houblon Des Obouex into the mix – on soft ground he could be perfect. PK – Houblon does look a cracking each way bet – take Dynaste out and its wide open. Champion Chase: PS –I think Sprinter Sacre is better than Moscow Flyer but his rating doesn’t show it. It should just be a race to watch but for fun an exacta to match last year’s finishing position. RH – Everyone agrees it’s just about Sprinter Sacre. Ryanair: RH – Cue Card and First Lieutenant appear to both be pretty much confirmed. PK – Davy Russell is a big fan of First Lieutenant. LT – First Lieutenant and Sizing Europe are the two for me but wait until they are both confirmed. JF – I’ve heard Riverside Theatre is pleasing at home and Nicky is sure ulcers were the problem after last year and I think they are going there with confidence. LT – Riverside Theatre is no value for me. PK – Last year’s Ryanair was a tough race so I would ignore anything that ran in it. PS – Albertas Run takes my eye each way at 20s but I don’t think he’ll win. World Hurdle: PK – I’m a huge fan of Reve de Sivola but there are rumours he has had a setback. I do see Oscar Whisky as a non stayer so I’m sticking with Reve. LT – Oscar Whisky still heads the market but there has been lots of money for Wonderful Charm. RH – Quevega non runner no bet for me – you can’t lose! PS – If Grands Crus turns up he won’t be 20s so is worth a look no runner no bet. Triumph: PS – Diakali would be interesting at a decent price – I like Aga Khan bred over hurdles. JF – Ruacana has a similar profile to Countrywide Flame and deserves to take his chance, we will be putting a visor on him just to sharpen him up. PK – I was very impressed by Our Connor – I think he will be very hard to beat but he will be a bigger price on the day than he is now. LT – Far West has been highly touted but I like Rolling Star as well. Foxhunters: JF – Salsify should win this doing hand stands! Gold Cup: PS – Long Run is in many ways the most interesting runner but I don’t think he can win. The form of the Hennessy is probably the most solid but Bobs Worth hasn’t run for a long time but that may not work against him. There might be concerns about the track for Silviniaco Conti so I think Bobs Worth is the most likely winner with Cape Tribulation an each way interest. RH – Bobs Worth has had an interrupted prep. PK – You could argue Bobs Worth has the best form but the missed prep bothers me. LT – Bobs Worth is 4 from 4 at Cheltenham and I can’t entertain anything else. RH – How good is Silviniaco Conti? PK – Ruby thinks he is the real deal and he has done nothing wrong so I think he is the most likely winner and I will also give a word to Captain Chris, who will stay and could run well. Extras: JF – I’m excited about Bordoni in the Fred Winter and Purple Bay deserves his chance in the Bumper. Banker: PK – Menorah (Ryanair) JF – Rock on Ruby (Champion Hurdle) RH – Simonsig (Arkle) Long Shot: PK – Houblon des Obouex (RSA) PS – Cape Tribluation (Gold Cup) LT – Duke of Lucca (JLT) RH – Poquelin (Byrne Group)