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beaker1

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    key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013

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    Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 taken from sporting life: Wetherby going remains good to soft The going at Wetherby remains good to soft following another dry day on Wednesday with goingstick readings of 6.3 on the chase course and 6.2 the hurdles track. Their two-day fixture, which includes the Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase, gets under way on Friday. Wetherby's Chief Executive and Clerk of the Course, Jonjo Sanderson, said on Wednesday afternoon: "We have had no rain whatsoever since Monday morning and both Tuesday and today have been dry and sunny. Although the ground has dried marginally, the going remains Good to Soft, with an average GoingStick reading of 6.3. "There are some weather forecasts suggesting that cloud will build overnight and there is a chance of a light rain shower into Thursday morning. "Tomorrow is expected to be similar to today, with a dry day and the chance of a further light rain shower overnight into Friday."

    key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013

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    thoughts,stories and anything relating to the race in here: [TABLE=class: tableData, width: 100%]

    [TR] [TD]Long Run[/TD] [TD]5/4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Unioniste[/TD] [TD]10/3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]First Lieutenant[/TD] [TD]4/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cape Tribulation[/TD] [TD]7/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harry Topper[/TD] [TD]7/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Benefficient[/TD] [TD]8/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wayward Prince[/TD] [TD]20/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Big Fella Thanks[/TD] [TD]25/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Billie Magern[/TD] [TD]33/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Master Of The Hall[/TD] [TD]33/1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

    Racing Chat Thread

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    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Would you like or know anyone who would like; 2 general admission tickets to Kempton Park, for this Sun Oct 20th? i know this is short notice but i need to know asap so i can send them 1st class this afternoon p:s with respect established members will get prefrence over newer members

    Horses in training.

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    Re: Horses in training. taken from wetherbys limited Whenever a horse moves in or out of training or changes yards, the trainer must notify Weatherbys in order for our records to be updated. These changes are processed by the Racing Desk under contract to the British Horseracing Authority. On a daily basis the team checks and records the Horses in Training returns received from Licensed and Permit trainers. Trainers have access to the Horses in Training internet site. Updates recorded by trainers via this website are automatically transferred onto our database. As well as putting horses into training, trainers can also take them out via the internet site once they have finished for the season or have been retired. Sometimes an owner or trainer may feel that a horse is no longer suited to racing, and they have the option to register a Non-Racing Agreement as a safeguard once a new home has been found. A form can be downloaded here. Did you know... there are approximately 15,000 horses registered in training at any one time? For more information, please contact the Racing Desk. Tel: 01933 440077 Email: [email protected] dont know if this is any good to you

    BBOTD - Sunday 15/9/13

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    Re: BBOTD - Sunday 15/9/13

    17.35 Ffos Las Coalburn - 1PT Win 16/1 BetVictor Coalburn is yet to place in 5 starts but he hasn't been beaten too far on his two starts this year and on a mark of 45 with 3lb claimer Simon Pearce on board he looks like he could spring a surprise here. He's also wearing a visor for the first time which should improve his chances.
    thank-you for coalburn followed you on that

    Flat Racing - Saturday 24th of August

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    Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 24th of August 2:00 Betfred City Of York Stakes You could quite easily make a decent case for any of the 10 runners in this 7f Listed contest but a marginal preference is for CRISTOFORO COLOMBO. Although this colt by Henrythenavigator has only won one of his six starts to date he has some pretty solid form in the bank. He wasn’t beaten far in last season’s Coventry and Railway Stakes before looking a likely winner in the Phoenix Stakes before clipping heels and coming to grief. His 4th-placed finish in the Middle Park behind Reckless Abandon suggested that he was likely to be more of a sprinter type this season so arguably he ran better than expected to finish 5th in the 2000 Guineas to Dawn Approach although admittedly he was beaten a long way. He wouldn’t be the first colt that O’Brien has gone back to the drawing board with after he failed to flourish over a mile – Mozart is one that springs to mind as is Stravinsky although he was never tried over a mile on the racecourse. He has been off the track since Newmarket which will have given O’Brien plenty of time to adjust his training regime and with a 5lb age allowance I would expect to see him run a bit race. I deny anyone not to be impressed with Stewards’ Cup winner Rex Imperator. The way he picked up to run down his rivals in such a competitive heat suggests that he is potentially better than a handicap and therefore deserves to take his chance in this Listed race. Although he showed plenty of speed at Goodwood I do not think that he will be inconvenienced at all by this step up in trip and it would come as no surprise were he to take this with aplomb. Fort Bastion has had a stop-start career over the past couple of seasons and we can only take his fitness on trust. He was disappointing on his first start for a year at York in May and it is possible that his setbacks have left a lasting effect. At his best he is capable of landing a blow but whether we will ever see that again is debatable. Therefore, the final place on the shortlist goes to Es Que Love who despite not winning since April continues to run well in defeat. He is never beaten that far and although he cannot boast the level of form of some of his rivals he looks the sort that could spring a surprise here and a decent price. 2:40 Betfred Melrose Stakes To call this race tricky would be an understatement with 7 last time out winners lining up and a host of others arriving here in form. You always have to respect a runner from the Tony Martin yard as he is well known for scooping major handicaps here in the UK. Dark Crusader, the winner of his last two starts at Killarney and Galway is up 26lb since recording the first of those victories and common logic would suggest that he is now too high in the weights. However, his profile looks typical of an unexposed improving handicapper and it could be that the handicapper still has a fair way to go to get his measure. Bomber Thorn could be worth a squeak to small stakes even though he is still a maiden. This half-brother to Brown Panther shouldn’t have a problem with this step up in trip and the introduction of a first-time visor could be the answer to get him to concentrate in his races. DebDebDeb has gone little wrong this season and has carried on improving the further she goes. This Teofilo filly will need to improve again off a 5lb higher mark but that cannot be ruled out with any confidence. But overall preference is for HAVANA COOLER who won well at Ripon and Newmarket earlier in the season. He looked to be hating the undulations at Goodwood and I think backers knew their fate a long way before the finish. Although he has a reasonably sharp pedigree I feel that he is crying out for this sort of trip and will improve on a more galloping track such as York. 3.15 Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes WEIGHT Ever since the brilliant Rock of Gibraltar successfully conceded weight to seven rivals in 2001, only one winner – Approve in 2010 – has carried a penalty (3lbs for a previous win at Group 1 or 2 level) to victory. Despite the fact that very few horses line up in the race under a penalty (usually only one or two each year), conceding weight to some smart and progressive rivals must be counted as a minor disadvantage. Heavy Metal was only beaten a head under a penalty last year when trying to follow up a win in Goodwood’s Richmond Stakes; Saayerr will be trying hard to go one better today. TRAINER Richard Hannon is renowned for being a top-class juvenile trainer and he has won the race four times since 1988, but his last success came 13 years ago and he is not represented this afternoon. Two trainers with fine recent records that do have declared runners today are William Haggas, who has enjoyed two wins, a second and two fourths since 2006, and Kevin Ryan, who has secured two wins plus three further placed efforts since 2005. The former saddles Saayerr, with the latter responsible for Astaire. RECENT FORM Only five of the last ten winners of the Gimcrack Stakes (and just two of the last six) had been successful on their most recent start so clearly coming into the race with winning form isn’t the be-all and end-all. However, we still have to be siding with horses that have shown good recent form. Seven of the last ten winners had either won their most recent outing or finished no worse than third in a Group 2 race. However, this trend has a limited impact this year with only Justice Day having not shown strong form last time out. As this is such a quality renewal, perhaps we should also be wary of the chances of Wilshire Boulevard, who only won a minor Group 3 last time having previously been well held in Listed company. DISTANCE No obvious trends here; unsurprisingly eight of the last ten winners of this race had previously shown strong form over this 6f trip, but as all of today’s runners fall into this category we need to look elsewhere for winning clues. BETTING Followers of the favourite have had a tough time in recent years. The success of John Gosden’s Showcasing in 2009 is the only time in the last ten renewals in which the jolly has been successful. An average starting price of just over 7/1 shows us that this race can occasionally throw up a minor shock (there have been two 16/1 winners), although it must be taken into account that six of the last ten winners were returned with an SP no bigger than 6/1. CONCLUSION Not an easy race to weigh up from a trends perspective. SAAYERR and Astaire represent trainers with excellent recent records in this race, but both have minor doubts against their names – Saayerr is conceding weight to all of his rivals, while Astaire has yet to hit the frame in Group company. Despite a moderate record for penalized runners, Saayerr is so strong on the positive trends that he still gets the vote. Parbold is a solid performer in classy Group 2 company and also won his Maiden on the Knavesmire back in May, so he could give the selection the most to think about. NEGATIVES Penalised runners – Saayerr Poor effort last time – Justice Day The likely favourite – watch the betting POSITIVES Previous win/placed form in Group 2 races – Saayerr, Cable Bay, Parbold Trained by William Haggas or Kevin Ryan – Saayerr and Astaire Last time out winner – Saayerr, Astaire, My Catch, Wilshire Boulevard 3.50 Betfred Ebor AGE A real graveyard for older contenders with only two horses older than five being able to land the Ebor since the legendary Sea Pigeon scored as a nine-year-old in 1979. The two older horses to score have both done so in the last eight years but even so, this is a particularly strong negative statistic. There are just the four runners in today’s field aged six or above – Steps To Freedom, Ted Veale, Saptapadi and Hanovarian Baron (plus the second reserve Itlaaq). In more recent seasons it has been five-year-olds which have had the strongest record, winning the Betfred Ebor in six of the last nine seasons including four of the last five (if the substitute race at Newbury in 2008 is also taken into account). Their record looks all the better when you consider that four-year-olds have been responsible for almost twice the amount of runners but have only won the race twice since 1994, although they have also had their fair share of finishers in the frame. Even so, their record still leaves a bit to be desired. DRAW Usually in races such as this, being drawn on the rail is an advantage but that hasn’t proved the case in the Betfred Ebor. Runners drawn low have been at an overwhelming disadvantage in recent years with only one of the last twelve winners (excluding the 2008 renewal run at Newbury) scoring from a single figure berth. With victory in the Betfred Ebor being held in such high esteem, those jockeys drawn low have shown a tendency to break far too quickly from the stalls in order to take advantage of their draw, but only end up setting a furious early pace in order to maintain their position. These early exertions clearly take their toll and play right into the hands of those drawn wide; those right on the outside have a superb recent record with eight of the last twelve winners having been drawn no lower than 16. WEIGHT The weights in the Betfred Ebor are fairly well compressed these days, making this trend fairly a minor one, but it must be noted that only four of the last 25 winners successfully shouldered more than 9st 1lbs. In such a competitive handicap where stamina is at an absolute premium, every pound matters, and the chances of the seven in the field who are carrying a hefty weight must be taken with a pinch of salt. RECENT FORM The 2011 25/1 winner Moyenne Corniche went against a couple of well-established trends, notably becoming only the second horse in 17 years to win the race having not achieved a top two finish on either of their last two starts. He, plus the 2001 victor Mediterranean and last year’s very lightly raced winner Willing Foe, are also the only winners in recent times not to have won a race of any nature during the current season. Six of the last ten winners had achieved a top four finish last time out and it is those contenders that we should be focusing our attentions on. BETTING Whichever way you look at it, favourites do not fare well in the Betfred Ebor – there have only been two winning favourites since 1998, and there have been four winners in the last decade priced no shorter than 20/1. Therefore the best advice, other than to oppose the favourite, is to back your selection regardless of the starting price. CONCLUSION The trends point towards an in-form five-year-old that is drawn in a high-numbered stall. The one that fits the bill on all counts is GENZY who has never won over this far but suggested in a 13f Group 3 last time that this sort of trip will suit. He was only beaten a head off this mark on fast ground at Ascot two starts ago and his trends chance looks obvious. Bishop Roko appears to have strong claims on the trends although it remains to be seen whether a horse with just four previous races will be up to this task. Caravan Rolls On and Tropical Beat would be of major interest if it wasn’t for their single figure draws, while everything seems to be against likely favourite Opinion (too high in the weights, drawn in the wrong place). NEGATIVES The likely favourite – Opinion Carrying 9st 3lbs or more – The top seven on your racecard Drawn in single figures – Sheikhzayedroad, Opinion, Oriental Fox, Caravan Rolls On, Tiger Cliff, Tropical Beat, Ted Veale, No Heretic, Hanoverian Baron Aged six or above – Steps To Freedom, Ted Veale, Saptapadi, Hanovarian Baron (Itlaaq) Failed to finish first or second on either of last two starts – eleven runners (including both reserves) POSITIVES Drawn 16 or higher – Number Theory, Guarantee, Montaser, Genzy, Blue Surf, Bishop Roko (Noble Silk – reserve) Top four finish last time out – Nine runners Five-year-olds – Number Theory, Oriental Fox, Caravan Rolls On, Tropical Beat, No Heretic, Highland Castle 4:25 Julia Graves Roses Stakes Having watched Mecca’s Angel absolutely hose up at Southwell last month she highlighted herself to be a filly to watch out for next time. She won well enough the time before that at Haydock but she looked ill at ease on the faster surface. However, on the deeper surface at Southwell she really excelled winning by 12L with Paul Mulrennan hardly moving a muscle. True it was a very low grade affair with little in opposition but you have to go with what your eyes tell you and she looked a filly capable of much more when getting her ideal conditions. Unfortunately, she doesn’t look likely to get that tomorrow and to be honest it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see her withdrawn. If the heavens did open she would be very interesting but that looks unlikely. If it remains fast I would be inclined to side with OUTER SPACE who looked a lovely well-made colt when winning at Sandown on his debut. This strong travelling colt swept past his rivals when asked for his effort by Pat Dobbs and on that evidence looks to have the pace for this competitive sprint. Hot Streak was another visually impressive winner when scoring over 6f at York last month. He got to the front easily before looking around showing signs of greenness suggesting that he still had plenty left in the tank. The drop down to 5f shouldn’t pose a problem and he looks the main danger to the selection. 5.00 BETFRED THE BONUS KING STAKES David O’Meara is emerging very quickly as one of the best trainers around and three winners thus far at the festival is just adding to his ever growing reputation. He saddles TWO FOR TWO in the penultimate race of this year’s Knavesmire Festival, and everything looks in his favour to run a big race. The five-year-old son of Danehill Dancer had been racing around the mile mark for most of his career but arguably his best start to date came when he finished a close sixth at Royal Ascot. The form of that race has worked out extremely well and he may be set to bolster the form lines once more. Charles Camoin also holds stong claims in the race, and although he is still relatively lightly raced for his age (having only three starts in 2 years) he looks more than capable of winning this event. He has been racing between a mile and a mile and a half through his years but a mile and a quarter with a bit of cut will be perfect conditions to let his quality speak for itself. He still looks fairly treated after his win last time out and he may prove a step ahead of the handicapper once more this weekend. 5.35 QIPCO FUTURE STARS APPRENTICE STAKES As the final race of the Ebor Festival’s names suggests, this race contains many very talented young Jockeys who we will be hearing lots more of in the years to come. Andrew Balding has a real history of bringing on some of the best apprentices with the likes of William Buick learning his trade down at Kingsclere. Oisin Murphy is currently at Balding’s and he is building his reputation rather quickly, a five pound claimer he has proved popular with a number of trainers and currently holding a 17% strike rate you can see why. His mount on Saturday is the Elite racing club owned NEW FFOREST who may be the perfect horse to provide Oisin with an Ebor festival winner. She looks a very speedy Oasis Dream filly, but she appears to have a few quirks when on song she looks a flying machine. She certainly looked on song last time out when Oisin partnered her for the first time, blasting away from her rivals to score by three lengths. If it is a going day for this filly, she may be the quickest in the field and the fact that Andrews young apprentice appeared to get on with her so well at Warwick suggests he may be able to get her in the mood show us her speed. When watching Huntsman Close’s racecourse debut I was instantly taken, he looked a group horse in the making but those hopes never materialised. He again looks a rather quirky type, he glides through his races before appearing to stuff in the towel, but hopefully a drop back to five on softish ground will be something to keep him interested for the whole race.

    Flat Racing - Friday 23rd of August

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    Re: Flat Racing - Friday 23rd of August 1.55 SKY BET STAKES Coming into 2013 you could have been forgiven for thinking that Winterlude wasn’t going to be a horse with a big race future but he having won two on the bounce now he may be about to win a race at the Ebor festival. He broke his maiden this year at Wolverhampton in devastating fashion, running away with the race by a distance of 7 lengths before enjoying the step up in trip at Doncaster holding on gamely near the end to win at the first time of asking in Handicap Company. It’s difficult to say how good he is but what we do know is he battles, he will love the quick ground and the extra two furlongs will be perfect for him. GOSPEL CHOIR will be hoping to emulate Kirthill who won this race last year whilst carrying top weight, the first time this has been done in ten years. Having only had five runs to date this gelding is still rather unexposed, but he is definitely talented having won three of those starts including defeats over Sun Central and Stencive last term. The only blot on her CV came in her final race of the season where she was in the process of running well before being bumped and squeezed, which really seemed to affect the inexperienced gelding. He certainly didn’t disgrace himself that day, and with a step up in trip in store for him on Friday he may be able to add another win to his impressive collection. 2.30 Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Lonsdale Cup AGE The ages of recent Lonsdale Cup winners range from three-year-olds (Double Eclipse – the last of this age to win, in 1995) to eight-year-olds (Persian Punch, Millenary) but it is definitely those aged four or five that we should pay the greatest attention to. From just under 50% of the total runners in the last decade, four and five-year-olds have won six renewals (including four of the last five). Just three of this year’s field are aged either four or five – the Godolphin duo of Ahzeemah and Colour Vision, plus the Yorkshire hope Glen’s Diamond. TRAINER No strong trends if you only look at recent evidence with the five-time winner John Dunlop (responsible for last year’s hero Times Up) retiring at the end of the 2012 season. Marcus Tregoning is the only trainer with a runner today to have previously landed this contest, although the Godolphin team did score with Opinion Poll two years ago and have two chances today out of Saeed bin Suroor’s yard. BETTING No strong trends also here with a couple of double-figure priced winners sprinkled amongst four winning favourites in the last decade. The average starting price of the winner is a shade over 9/2 RECENT FORM Stayers tend to mature as the season goes on and therefore it isn’t completely surprising to note that the 2011 winner Opinion Poll was the first winner of the Lonsdale Cup since Persian Punch in 2001 to have been successful on their most recent outing. Both aforementioned horses (as well as Royal Rebel in 2000) followed up wins in the Group 2 Goodwood Cup with success in this race, and no fewer than five horses that ran in this year’s renewal at the Sussex track lock horns again today (numbers one to five in the racecard). Ahzeemah came out best of the quintet that day, finishing second. Overall, seven of the last ten winners of this race had achieved a top four finish last time out which suggests that it is the horses coming into the race in decent nick that are the group to focus on. CLASS Only First Charter in 2004 went on to win Lonsdale Cup having not contested a Group race on their most recent start, having won the Listed Glorious Stakes at Goodwood. Every other winner contested either a Group 1 or 2 contest on their previous outing which shows the high quality nature of this race. However, this stat is meaningless today, with five of the seven runners having contested the Goodwood Cup last time out, and the other two arriving off the back of a run in the Ascot Gold Cup. Seven of the last ten winners were proven high-class performers, as shown by their official rating of at least 110. Askar Tau is the only contender not to possess such a rating today. STAMINA Six of the last ten winners of the Lonsdale Cup had previously won a race over two miles, but Bollin Eric, First Charter and Septimus were all stepping up to this trip for the very first time. Clearly proven stamina is not a pre-requisite for success here, as long as horses have already shown that a step up to a marathon trip will suit. CONCLUSION Not a strong race from a trends point of view but if we look for a four or five-year-old with proven class and stamina, that points us towards Ahzeemah who is nothing if not consistent having failed to finish out of the first two in his last nine starts. He is one of only two in today’s field who has yet to win over two miles, but seconds in a Group 3 at Meydan and in the Group 2 Goodwood Cup last time (in which he finished ahead of four of today’s field) suggests that stamina is not a problem. Gold Cup runner-up Simenon is a class act but the slight concern is that he has run poorly in three previous visits to the Knavesmire, including in this race last year. NEGATIVES Failed to achieve a top four finish last time – Askar Tau, Caucus, Colour Vision, Glens Diamond, Times Up Officially rated less than 110 – Askar Tau POSITIVES Four or five-year-olds – Ahzeemah, Colour Vision, Glens Diamond Previous two mile win – Askar Tau, Caucus, Colour Vision, Simenon, Times Up Contested a Group 1 or Group 2 last time out – The field 3.05 SKY BET STRENSALL STAKES (Group 3) Danadana has been a very tricky horse to follow over the past few years, one moment he can look very smart and the next a horse way out of his depth. A slight drop in trip combined with the faster ground on the Knavesmire may be just what he needs to reproduce the class he has shown in the past. Everything looks in his favour and if he is to run a big race this may be the day, so at 7/1 he may offer great value. The big guns of Pavlosk and ARCHBISHOP both are unexposed, undeniably talented but have question marks about them. Firstly Sir Michael Stoutes filly who jumped into the big race picture when crusing to a listed win at York earlier this season, but hasn’t looked as good since. She looked outclassed and outpaced in the Coronation Stakes before staying on eye-catchingly over seven at Goodwood. This trip and the downgrade in class may be exactly what she needs to recapture the form she showed in the listed race and she cannot be dismissed. ARCHBISHOP was consistently very good last season, despite only racing four times, two of which were in Group races abroad. On all four occasions he was inside the first two, which included two group as well as dead heating for first at Goodwood. He has a vast amount of talent will be able to eclipse his rivals if he is at his best after a lengthy absensce. 3.40 Nunthorpe Trends AGE Since the start of the 1980s only five Nunthorpe winners (and only four individual horses) were aged six or above, but with two of them scoring in the last four years the trend has been skewed somewhat. Sprinters do tend to have longer careers than many of their counterparts on the Flat, but overall records suggest that it is still rare for them to score regularly at the top level, so it is probably still fairly safe to oppose the old-timers today. Seven of today’s field are aged six or older, including likely market leaders Shea Shea and Sole Power. KEY RACES Royal Ascot’s King’s Stand Stakes remains the best pointer having supplied four of the last ten winners. Run over 5f, it is a very similar race to the Coolmore Nunthorpe as opposed to Newmarket’s Darley July Cup which is run over an extra furlong. Even so, three winners have come from the Newmarket showpiece and interestingly two of them achieved the sprint double. Six of today’s field contested the Royal Ascot race, with Sole Power (1st) and Shea Shea (2nd) faring by far the best. Slade Power finished ahead of the two aforementioned rivals when third at Newmarket. RATING When it comes to official ratings it would seem sensible to discount all those horses rated less than 110 as only Borderlescott (2008 and 2009) and 2010’s 100/1 surprise winner Sole Power have managed to win this race when rated below that benchmark. This significant trend helps us to narrow the field down significantly, with trend alone helps to narrow the field down significantly, with no fewer than thirteen runners falling foul of it. RECENT FORM The sprinting division is generally extremely open so it is no real surprise that only half of the last ten winners finished in the top three on their most recent outing. However, none of the last ten finished any worse than sixth last time out and all bar two of them had finished first or second in one of their last two starts, confirming the fact that it is very hard for an out of form runner to bounce back to his or her best in this top-class company. We can easily discount the eleven contenders who finished out of the top half dozen on their most recent start. Solid previous efforts at a high level are also a positive; of the last ten winners only La Cucaracha, Kingsgate Native and Sole Power scored here having failed to finish at least placed in a previous Group 1 or 2 event. TRAINERS No strong trends here with no trainer other than Aidan O’Brien, who is not represented today, having trained more than one horse to win the Coolmore Nunthorpe in recent years. BETTING The 2010 and 2011 renewals became a bookies benefit with Sole Power (100/1) and Margot Did (20/1) doing the business, therefore joining just three other horses that have won the Coolmore Nunthorpe since the war when returned at 16/1 or bigger, but normality resumed last year with the success of the 7/2 joint favourite. In the context of what has happened in the past it would still seem prudent to favour those towards the forefront of the betting. In the last decade alone, six winners had been no worse that fourth in the betting although, as a word of caution, it is ten years now since the last winning favourite. FILLIES & MARES Fillies have won six of the last twenty renewals which, on first glance, doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary. But, when you consider that very few fillies line up in the Coolmore Nunthorpe (less than a fifth of the total runners), it starts to look a lot more interesting. The girls have won the last two renewals and there are six in this year’s field who are aiming to enhance their impressive record. CONCLUSION A rematch between King’s Stand first and second Sole Power and Shea Shea. On the face of it, both appear to have an outstanding chance, but with both not fitting the age trends in the context of this race, it may be worth looking elsewhere. Fillies have a great record but there do not appear to be any superstars amongst the girls this year; Lady Cecil’s Tickled Pink appears to be the pick. One horse that may have gone slightly under the radar is the Ascot winner’s stablemate SLADE POWER, who may be better at six furlongs (third in the July Cup) but has a Group 3 win over five furlongs to his name and appears to be improving. He possesses a strong trends profile. NEGATIVES Aged six or older – Borderlescott, Hamish McGonagall, Kingsgate Choice, Kingsgate Native, Shea Shea, Sole Power, Tiddliwinks Rated less than 110 – 13 runners including Ladies Are Forever, Tickled Pink and York Glory Failed to finish in the first six last time out – 11 runners including Borderlescott, Kingsgate Native and Tickled Pink POSITIVES Fillies – Caledonia Lady, Jwala, Ladies Are Forever, Miss Lahar, Tickled Pink, Rosdhu Queen Finished in the top two either of last two starts – 11 runners Ran well in King’s Stand Stakes – Sole Power (1st) and Shea Shea (2nd) Previous good form in Group 1 or 2 company – 10 runners 4.20 SKY BET MOBILE CONVIVIAL MAIDEN STAKES Of the Glorious Goodwood maidens, GOLDEN TOWN left the strongest impression on me, when finishing fourth on the final day of the meeting. Out of a French Listed winner the Godolphin owned colt is bred in the purple hailing from the family of Authorized and Solemiam so he has a fair amount to live up to. His run at Goodwood suggested he may be capable of adding his name to his family’s role of honour; despite being very slowly away and showing all the signs of greenness he stayed on really strongly in the final few furlongs catching the first three home with every stride. The son of Invincible Spirit Showed both speed and endurance that day as well as willing attitude, and looks more than capable of emulating Wentworth in winning this race having previously run in the same race at Goodwood. A number of the horses in this field rain in that maiden but Golden Town looked the one with the most progression in him, and therefore the danger may be posed by Red Galileo whose maiden run at Newmarket looked strong as well. Ed Dunlop’s juveniles usually come on for the run so it was striking in itself that this son of Dubawi was rather unlucky not to have shed his maiden tag at the first time of asking, running on well after traffic problems, with the winner having already flown for home. He is a half-brother to Okavango so his breeding suggests he could be rather smart and if he has progressed as many of Dunlop’s do for the benefit of a run then he may live up to his Racing Post trophy entry. 4.55 NATIONWIDE ACCIDENT REPAIR SERVICES STAKES Short Squeeze has always been held in high regard by his trainer Hugo Palmer but he has never really fired. Having taken eight attempts to finally get off the mark the big framed gelding may at last be coming into his own and be going someway to repaying his trainers faith in him. The son of Cape Cross really came into his own at Sandown last time out, seeming to relish the good to firm ground and a step back to a mile. He pulled hard but yet won very comfortably to suggest that there was a lot more to come, and although he has had a fair rise in the weights he may still be well treated to run a big race on the penultimate day of the Ebor Festival. Ralf Beckett is enjoying a terrific season and a winner at the Ebor festival will be just be another on a long list of accomplishment’s this year. His charge in the last on day three is SECRET ART a gelding who has been progressing nicely but will have slipped under the radar somewhat. He had a nice double earlier in the year before two great runs at Ascot including finishing a ½ a length behind Morpheus and then a ¾ length defeat at Newmarket behind a subsequent listed winner. He is a very consistent type, but with the class to boot which makes him a serious chance of adding another big race win to the growing tally of his trainer.

    Flat Racing - Thursday 22nd of August

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    Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 22nd of August 1.55 DBS PREMIER YEARLING STAKES This extremely valuable juvenile sales race has been a very lucrative one for Kevin Ryan who has trained the winner of the past two renewals in the shape of Bogart and Hototo. This year Ryan saddles a few with chances but SLEEPER KING appears to hold the strongest claims having previously run well in the Windsor Castle & Molcomb Stakes. The latter of which, is his best form to date when headed in the final furlong before finishing a very creditable fourth. He shaped as a good horse on that day, but that he may just lack an explosive turn of foot to excel at 5, so the extra furlong looks set to suit. Favourites have a good record in the race and although he concedes weight to a few of his rivals he certainly fits the profile of a winner of this big race. I failed to add Xanthos into my horse tracker after his debut effort at Windsor which has turned out to be a huge mistake seeing as he went on to win his next start at Newcastle when 12/1. The manor of his Windsor win suggested he was above average, given an easy ride he closed ground well to finish a very nice fourth behind a well gambled Andrew Balding juvenile. He backed that up in stylish fashion when running away with his maiden at Newcastle, striding away to win by just under four lengths. He still looks rather green and has plenty of room to grow as a tall rangy son of Medicean but if he manages to lengthen the way he looks capable of at 20/1 he could be a lively outsider. 2.30 Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther Stakes TRAINER TRENDS Two current trainers have by far and away the best record in the Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther Stakes, namely Richard Hannon and Mick Channon who have both won the race four times in their careers, including twice in the last decade. The former is not represented this year but Channon saddles the lightly raced Kaiulani, who was not disgraced in the Queen Mary Stakes last time out on just her second career start. Three other trainers with a runner this year have tasted success in the past – Tim Easterby (1999), Jeremy Noseda (2003) and Brian Meehan (2009), while Charles Hills’ father Barry was successful in 2006 with Silk Blossom. RECENT FORM Good recent form is a strong pointer and horses that have run below their best last time out need not apply. In the last quarter of a century only two winners of the Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther Stakes had finished worse than third on their most recent outing. This is a huge negative for five of today’s nine-strong field – Alutiq, Azagal, Kaiulani, Merletta and Reroute. Nine of the last thirteen winners had been successful on their most recent starts, although only this has only been the case on three occasions in the last seven years. Nevertheless, this is still a decent positive trend and a good pointer to the chances of Lucky Kristale, J Wonder and Wind Fire. Relatively unexposed horses are who we should be looking at as well; in the last ten years only one winner had previously raced on more than three occasions. KEY RACES Three Ascot races have been the best pointers in recent years. The Albany Stakes (6f) and Queen Mary Stakes (5f), both run at Royal Ascot, have produced two winners apiece, but it is the Princess Margaret Stakes, run in July over today’s trip of 6f, that has been the best pointer to the winner of this, having been responsible for four winners going back to 2002. Queen Catrine (2nd) and Reroute (5th) represents the Princess Margaret form this time around. Looking at the wider picture, it is interesting to note that all bar two Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther winners in the last decade had previously tried at least Listed level, so we can look to oppose those stepping up in class (three runners fall into that category today). BETTING The last two winners of the Connolly’s RED MILLS Lowther have both returned an SP of 11/1, but with the average starting price in the last ten years still being just a shade over 5/1 we should probably still focus our attentions on those towards the head of the betting. There have been four winning favourites in the last decade although only one since Flashy Wings landed odds of 10/11 in 2005. DISTANCE There is nothing to be gained in this area as in recent seasons there is a fairly even split of winning fillies which had already won over six furlongs and those that were winning over this trip for the first time. CONCLUSION Only two of the nine runners survive some particularly strong negative trends, namely the penalized Lucky Kristale, and Charles Hills’ Queen Catrine. The pair met in a Group 2 at Newmarket last month with the former, a surprise 20/1 winner, finishing three lengths ahead of third-placed Queen Catrine. However, the latter has since finished a good second in the best trial for the Lowther, the Princess Margaret Stakes, and the booking of Johnny Murtagh for today’s contest is extremely eye-catching. Trainer Charles Hills was assistant to his father Barry when their star filly Silk Blossom was successful in this race seven years ago. NEGATIVES Not in the first three last time out – Alutiq, Azagal, Kaiulani, Merletta, Reroute Previously raced more than three times – Alutiq, Azagal, Wind Fire Yet to run in a Group race – Azagal, J Wonder, Merletta POSITIVES Ran well in the Princess Margaret, Albany or Queen Mary – Queen Catrine, Reroute Last time out winners – Lucky Kristale, J Wonder, Wind Fire Trained by Mick Channon – Kaiulani 3.05 CLIPPER LOGISTICS STAKES Another of the big handicaps this week at York, which looks as equally hard to unlock but WENTWORTH looks like he may be the magic key. Although favourite don’t have a particularly good record in the race, I wouldn’t let that put you off as I believe Wentworth is certainly of Group class masquerading as a handicapper at this point in his career. He won the Betfred mile with a fair bit in hand over a similar horse posing as a handicapper in Cape Peron and although he went up seven pounds for the win he still looks ahead of the handicapper. I’d imagine this is his last shot in handicap company before heading onto pattern company and connections will be hoping he can head into those black type races with some prize money picked up at the Ebor festival. If any of his rivals are going to lay down a challenge to Hannon’s star it may be Sandagiyr who finished third behind Wentworth at Goodwood. Many people that day felt that the Godolphin owned colt was rather unlucky, finding a significant amount of trouble before running on well in the closing stages to create a good impression. This was a return to form for the horse who has ran in Britain, France and Dubai, all of which he has shown promise but has proven a bit hit and miss. Although he also received a hike in the weights after Goodwood he reaposes Wentworth on better terms and if he gets a clear passage, on a hit day he may be in with a healthy squeak. 3.40 Darley Yorkshire Oaks AGE No strong trends, but three-year-olds appear to have a slight advantage as they have won 13 of the 22 renewals (and seven of the last thirteen) to have taken place since older fillies and mares were permitted to run, albeit from almost two thirds of the total runners. The fact that the ‘Classic Generation’ receives a 10lb weight allowance from their older rivals probably has something to do with their overall advantage, as by this time of the season they ought to be fully mature and practically on an even footing so the weight-for-age is really an added bonus. This year there is an even split between three-year-olds and their older rivals. TRAINERS The much-missed Sir Henry Cecil had a tremendous record training fillies so it is no surprise that he won the Darley Yorkshire Oaks four times – most recently in 2010. Since Sir Henry’s passing, his widow Jane has taken over the reins at Warren Place and has declared two fillies for today’s contest, namely the five-year-old Wild Coco (who was a late non-runner in this race last year) and the three-year-old Riposte. Four more of today’s trainers have tasted Darley Yorkshire Oaks success in the past: dual winners Luca Cumani (Emirates Queen) and Aidan O’Brien (Venus Di Milo), plus John Gosden (The Fugue) and Jim Bolger (Scintillula). Nine-time winner Sir Michael Stoute is not represented this time around. KEY RACES With three-year-olds holding sway it isn’t surprising that the Investec Oaks has provided six recent winners of this race; only the late-maturing Quiff did not line up in the second fillies’ Classic on her way to success here. However, a good run at Epsom is not necessarily a pre-requisite (many a top-class filly has struggled to handle the unique undulations) and the likes of Islington, Lush Lashes and Blue Bunting all finished out of the places before scoring here later in the season. Secret Gesture (second) is aiming to uphold the Epsom form today. The Darley Irish Oaks has proved a much more consistent guide, probably as there are only five weeks between the two races making it much easier for a trainer to keep their filly or mare in tip-top condition. Of the six most recent Darley Irish Oaks winners to have taken their chance here, five have managed to do the double. This year’s Curragh winner, the French-trained Chicquita, has not made the journey across the Channel Sea, so the form is represented by Venus Di Milo, Scintillula and Riposte (second, fourth and fifth respectively). RECENT FORM Eight of the last thirteen winners here had been successful last time out, and that could or perhaps should have been nine had Lush Lashes not endured a nightmare passage in her previous outing in the 2008 Nassau Stakes. This confirms the fact that a filly needs to be at the top of her game coming into the race. Taking the recent form angle a little further we see that eleven of the last thirteen winners had contested a Group 1 or Group 2 on their last start, showing that horses stepping up in class can probably be opposed. BETTING Those towards the head of the betting are more often than not the group to focus on. In the last decade there have been five winning favourites and three second favourites, with the average SP of the winner only a shade over 5/2. Only two of the last ten winners have returned an SP greater than 7/2, so it surely must pay to focus attention on those that head the market. CONCLUSION A fascinating ‘clash of the generations’ renewal featuring last year’s runner-up and two three-year-olds who have finished second in a version of the Oaks. Taking the trends at face value none of the eight declared runners survive all of the negatives, although it must be said that the Group 3 at Cork that Venus Di Milo contested last time out can only be considered a warm-up for the Darley Yorkshire Oaks; prior to that she was a fast-finishing half-length second in the Irish Oaks (a great trial for this race) so the fact that she did not content a top-level race last time out can surely be forgiven. Secret Gesture has found only one too good in both the English and German versions of the Oaks and sorely deserves her day in the sun; she too has a strong trends profile. The Fugue’s fine effort in this race twelve months ago puts her right in the mix, but she came into last year’s race off the back of a Group 1 win, so her moderate effort last time (albeit against colts) tempers enthusiasm. NEGATIVES Without a victory last time out – All except Wild Coco and Venus Di Milo Market outsider – Emirates Queen, Moment In Time, Scintillula Did not contest a Group 1 or 2 race last time – Wild Coco, Scintillula, Venus Di Milo POSITIVES Three-year-olds – Riposte, Scintillula, Secret Gesture, Venus Di Milo Top three placing in the English or Irish Oaks – Secret Gesture, Venus Di Milo Trained by Lady Cecil – Wild Coco, Riposte 4.20 “BREEDERS BACKING RACING” EBF GALTRES STAKES (Listed Race) William Haggas has a rather impressive record at York and he will be hoping that his filly OUR OBSESSION will be able to bolster those figures. She has improved with each racecourse start, winning at the second time of asking as a juvenile, cruising away with her Maiden at HQ to win by three lengths. Her connections held her in high regard over the winter and were rather hopeful that we she would be able to run in the top races of 2013. Unfortunately she suffered a setback over the spring which really ended all classic dreams but they got her back right for a handicap debut on the Knavesmire at the end of July. She stayed on impressively over a mile and a quarter that day making her rivals looking extremely moderate and the connections will hope she is able to do the same again with the added two furlongs looking right up her alley. After the win at York Haggas nominated the Galtres Stakes as the main target, she will have been trained for this race and if she retains as much ability as the team feel she has then this inexperienced filly is more than capable of winning some very valuable black type. The other rather unexposed but undeniably talented filly in the line-up is the Lady Cecil trained Songbird who has already won two races including a five length maiden romp before an eleven length demolition job at Yarmouth. She then headed to Newbury for a crack at the Listed Chalice stakes where she ran a nice race only to be headed in the final few strides by a rather progressive James Fanshawe trained filly. That was her first taste of a proper fight and although she didn’t win she certainly lost nothing in defeat. Songbird was one of the first winners officially trained in Lady Cecil’s name, and I believe she is more than capable of providing Lady Cecil with a very special winner on the track where Frankel produced one of his most magical performances. 4.55 VENTMASTERS.CO.UK EBF FILLIES´ STAKES David O’Meara is having a terrific season and is very close to breaking through the 100 winner barrier, last season he saddled the winner of this race and with three entries this year he stands a very good chance of winning it once again. NURPUR potentially offers the most realistic chance of a winner and the booking of Ryan Moore is a real positive. This filly by Dark Angel has really been a model of consistency having only finished outside the first three on two occasions over her sixteen race career but only broke her maiden in the summer of his year at the twelfth time of asking. She hasn’t looked back from that day having won two races over a mile the latest on the Knavesmire itself running out a convincing winner. She has been creeping up the weights this season which is a worry but the drop to seven may be able to counteract that, and with the former champ on her connections will be hoping she is one step ahead of the handicapper once again. Tartiflette looked a filly with a real future at the end of her 2012 campaign, where she had run in some very nice races and although hadn’t managed to get her head in front, she proved she had a fair amount of talent. She picked up this year where she left off winning a seven furlong contest at Haydock with a fair amount in hand, but unfortunately the handicapper dealt her a hefty hike in the weights and since then she hasn’t been competitive. Of her four subsequent efforts, the only one of real note was when finishing a solid sixth in the Victoria Cup. As such she has been going down in the weights and now sits around the mark that she was last victorious, which may just be enough for her to recapture her form. Graham Gibbons is back on board for the first time since her sole victory of 2013 and if he and the fact she has slipped back to a competitive mark both work then she certainly has enough talent to be deemed a serious danger in the final race of Day 2.

    Flat Racing - Wednesday 21st of August

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    Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 21st of August 1.55 SYMPHONY GROUP STAKES The opening race of the 2013 Ebor festival, sees a number of the country’s top handicap sprinters in action. The race has been won in the past by Group level winners and top Group performers, so looking for a potential Group winner may be the key to unlocking the race. The draw can play a huge influence on the outcome of these sprints and I believe it will be a bonus to be drawn high, winners have come in the past from the high draw and looking at the way the field pans out the pace seems to be coming from that side. A horse that may fit the mould is LONG AWAITED, in spite of failing to build on his encouraging 2012 still looks a horse with a fair amount of ability. He really came into his own at the end of last season and I and many others expected him to improve and become a big force this year. He was thus sent of a short price with Hughsie jocked up for the Epsom Dash where despite suffering major traffic issues he ran a great race and when in the clear he ran on nicely. He has since run two great races at Musselbugh and Ascot, on both occasions finishing fourth in large competitive fields. His latest outing was a little less encouraging however he wasn’t beaten too far and this was despite going left out of the gates so it may be best to forget that run. The son of Pivotal has been a tad unlucky this season, but hopefully everything will go his way tomorrow and the bonus of a nice draw in 16 with Bogart and Tax Free around him is a big plus. He comes into the race with a nice profile, with plenty of room to improve and the fact that Richard Hughes is back on board may be a significant pointer to the fact he is there to do no less than win. Yorkshire based Michael Easterby is set to saddle two runners in the opening race of his home festival with Above Standard the one that looks the most favourable. Still lightly raced in comparison with most of his opponents the son of Shamardal has only competed on three occasions this season. The first two he won, keeping on strongly at five furlongs to win at Redcar before following up in similar fashion in a tough race on the Knavesmire. He was then set is hardest assignment to date when stepped up in trip for the Stewards cup, where he equipped himself really well travelling smoothly, before challenging hard inside the final furlongs but was unable to find anything more. This was a brilliant performance from the five-year-old and also went some way to highlighting the potential he may hold. He only went up a couple of pounds for that performance which is only fair, but back down in trip may counteract that and give him that extra edge. I have always been a believer of following sprinters in form and this boy is certainly in the form of his life, if he is continued to improve he is set to be a major player. 2.30 PINSENT MASONS LLP ACOMB STAKES (Group 3) Over the past few years the Acomb stakes hasn’t really thrown up a winner who has gone on to be a real force in the game but there are a few horses in here that will be hoping to buck that trend. The Grey Gatsby holds all of the entries to suggest that connections feel that he may well be rather talented. His only racecourse appearance to date was a striking one lining up at York where despite looking rather green and inexperienced, once he found his stride he picked up in eye-catching manor and won with a fair bit more in hand than the winning distance suggests. The form from that day stands up rather well with the runner up Brazos, who’d already had a run, going on to win next time out at Goodwood. The form has held up very well indeed and with the backing of Kevin Ryan who tends to do very well with his Juveniles at the Ebor festival he may well win this on route to more lucrative targets. IL PAPARAZZI is another juvenile in the race that shed his maiden tag here on the Knavesmire and he did it with a fair amount of style. Keeping on strongly to crush his rivals by five lengths, you could have been forgiven for thinking that he hadn’t beat much at the time but that is not the case with the third and fourth both going on to win next time out. Although only costing 32,000 at the sales he is very well bred, hailing from the family of Derby hero Camelot and out of the Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Birdie. If this colt was wearing more prestigious silks, or coming from a more fashionable yard having won his maiden by five lengths I would find it hard to believe that he would be the 7/1 price that he currently sits at. Daniel Kubler has always liked the colt and is rather frustrated he didn’t take the plunge and enter him in the Royal Lodge, if he is rite that he is of that calibre then he is way too big at the moment & it may pay to be bold and take a risk. 3.05 Neptune Investment Management Great Voltigeur Stakes TRAINERS Sir Michael Stoute is currently the leading trainer in the race having won it six times in total, most recently with Sea Moon in 2012; the master of Freemason Lodge appears to have an excellent chance of making it an unprecedented seven wins today with the strongly-fancied Telescope, who at one point was ante-post favourite for the Derby. The trainer with by far the best recent record in the race is John Gosden, who landed back-to-back renewals in 07/08 with Lucarno and Centennial, and made it a hat-trick of wins twelve months ago with Thought Worthy. Gosden’s representative today is Nichols Canyon – a likely outsider but should not be discounted. Godolphin trainers have won four renewals in the last 16 years and have two contenders in the shape of Cap O’Rushes (Charlie Appleby) and Secret Number (Saeed bin Suroor). Aidan O’Brien (Foundry) has not won the race since 2003 – his last runner in the race was the well beaten favourite Seville in 2011. BETTING Although six of the last ten winners were sent off at 6/1 or less in the betting, it must be pointed out that only two of those were the actual favourite, and only one market leader has scored since 2004. The last seven years have seen winners at 28/1, 12/1 (twice) and 9/1, so obviously it is unwise to rule out any runner based solely on their position in the betting. This year’s likely favourite is Telescope, so with the jolly having such a moderate recent record, is today the day to be taking him on? RECENT FORM A last time out victory is not the be all and end all when looking for that elusive winner as less than half of the last ten winners of this race (and just one of the last six) lined up having been successful last time. However, with six of the last ten winners finishing no worse than third last time out, with a couple of the exceptions having run creditably in top-class company, the focus must be on those runners that performed well on their most recent outing. DISTANCE Recent trends point to horses with strong form over at least ten furlongs. Five of the last seven winners had previously won over a minimum of a mile and a quarter in at least Listed company; the exceptions being Monitor Closely (who had only been beaten two lengths in the Dante on the Knavesmire earlier in the season), and Sea Moon, who was not the first Sir Michael Stoute-trained horse to successfully take a huge leap in class. Of the seven horses declared for today’s race, only the two Godolphin-trained colts possess 10f+ winning form at Pattern level. Interestingly, only one of the last ten winners of this race had previously been successful over this 1m 4f trip – Youmzain (2006), for the record. Therefore, we should not go overboard about the fact that Cap O’Rushes is the only runner in today’s field to possess winning form over a mile and a half. CONCLUSION A very open race from a trends point of view, but despite Sir Michael Stoute’s superb overall record in the race, history tells us that we should probably look to oppose his likely favourite Telescope. The Galileo colt was for a time ante-post favourite for the Investec Derby, but he has had his problems, and was a beaten odds-on favourite at Haydock last time – albeit against older and more experienced animals. Of his six rivals, the one that fits the trends the best is the experienced CAP O’RUSHES, who won gamely over this trip in a Group 3 at Goodwood last time, a month after finishing a fine fourth in the Irish Derby. Godolphin are looking for their fifth win in the Neptune Investment Management Great Voltigeur and he could well be the one to provide it. The ‘dark horse’ in the race is the long-absent Foundry; he is clearly a fascinating contender but there are too many ifs and buts for him to be strongly recommended. POSITIVE: Trained by John Gosden or Sir Michael Stoute – Nichols Canyon, Telescope 10f+ winning form at Pattern level – Cap O’Rushes, Secret Number NEGATIVE Market leader – Telescope Failed to finish in the first three last time out – Nichols Canyon, Secret Number, Willie The Whipper 3.40 Juddmonte International Stakes AGE Four-year-olds have the best recent record in the Juddmonte International having won half of the last ten renewals from around 40 per cent of the total runners. In fact, their record in the race since its inception is superior to any other age group, with 19 wins from 41 renewals. There are two four-year-olds facing the starter this year, namely Declaration of War and the likely outsider Rewarded. Horses aged five or over have made up approximately one third of the total runners in the last decade and have duly won three renewals – but with only one of those wins coming in the last eight years, it appears that the tide is turning against the older contender – a slight worry for fans of likely favourite Al Kazeem. The Classic generation have been sparingly represented in recent years with only one three-year-old lining up since Sea The Stars won in 2009; they have only won two of the last ten renewals but from just a quarter of the total runners, so this should not be seen as a negative for the trio of three-year-olds facing the starter today. DISTANCE A very interesting statistic is that last year’s winner, the phenomenal Frankel, was the first horse previously regarded as a pure miler to win the Juddmonte International since Rodrigo de Triano way back in 1992. This is a big worry for fans of the progressive three-year-old Toronado; he is clearly a high-class colt, but he is no Frankel (yet). Declaration Of War was second to Al Kazeem in the Coral-Eclipse on his only start beyond eight furlongs, but he didn’t look the strongest of stayers that day and has since returned to racing over a mile. PROVEN AT THE TOP LEVEL Unsurprisingly, the last ten renewals have been dominated by regular Group 1 performers, with only the 2012 victor Twice Over having not contested a top level race on their most recent outing. Delving a bit deeper, this statistic also shows us that eight of the last ten winners had finished no worse than third in a Group 1 last time out (seven of them in the first two). Daclaration of War (fourth in a Group 1 in France) and Rewarded (down the field in a Listed Handicap) fall down on this particular statistic. Of the other four in today’s field, two (Al Kazeem and Toronado) won at the top level last time out, while Trading Leather found only Novellist too good in the King George. TRAINER TREND Sir Michael Stoute is the leading trainer in the race having won five times (although only once since 1997), and is represented this year by Hillstar. Aidan O’Brien (Declaration Of War) has three wins to his name since the turn of the millennium (including two wins since 2008); the other four trainers with a runner today are still awaiting their first success. BETTING The Juddmonte International isn’t really a race for shocks. The biggest priced winner in the last decade was Notnowcato at 8/1 in 2006 and prior to that Ezzoud’s 28/1 success way back in 1993 is the only other big-priced winner to really stand out. Favourites have an extremely strong recent record having won five of the last six renewals, so it would seem prudent to focus on those towards the head of the bookmakers boards. CONCLUSION Today’s race is being billed as a clash of the generations; in one corner is the five-year-old proven stayer Al Kazeem, in the other is the crack three-year-old miler Toronado. However, neither completely survive the negative trends. It must be said, though, that Toronado’s lack of form over ten furlongs is a much more worrying negative statistic than Al Kazeem’s age, so the trends suggest that we must be favouring the older contender in this particular battle. Declaration Of War’s unplaced effort last time out counts against him, and a stronger case could be made for fellow Irish colt Trading Leather, who survives all of the negative trends, has finished no worse than second in a Group 1 on his last two racecourse outings, and prior to that finished a good second to subsequent Derby runner-up Libertarian in the Betfred Dante here on the Knavesmire. NEGATIVES Aged five or over – Al Kazeem Unproven over further than a mile – Toronado Unplaced last time out – Declaration Of War, Rewarded POSITIVES Four-years-old – Declaration Of War, Rewarded Trained by Aidan O’Brien – Declaration Of War Top two finish in a Group 1 on latest start – Al Kazeem, Toronado, Trading Leather Likely favourite – Al Kazeem 4.20 LANSTONE BUILDING CONSERVATION STAKES The penultimate race on the opening day of the Ebor festival is an intriguing 2 mile affair with the the Mark Johnston trained BROXBOURNE offering a promising profile heading into this race. 2013 has seen significant improvement from the filly, who comes into the race in flying form. Four starts ago she really began to show her class finishing runner up behind a subsequent Royal Ascot horse. She then went on two cruise home in a competitive affair at Ascot before her most prestigious win to date finishing late and strong to beat a class line up and win at the Glorious meeting. She then returned to Ascot to compete in a race at the Shergar Cup meeting, where she wasn’t dealt a very good hand, left out the back by Lisa Alpress before slipping around the turn, only to fly home from an impossible position. She earned a lot of credit in defeat there, and although two miles may be on the lower end of her remit she looks a filly of real class and as long as the Ascot run hasn’t knocked her confidence she may be set to return to the winner’s enclosure. 4.55 BETVICTOR.COM STAKES This nursery handicap forms a very tricky conundrum so it may pay to pay attention to look at the past ten renewals. Of those 10 contests only 2 horses have won carrying anything over nine stone and these 2 were the only horses that returned at a prince under 6/1, this means we would be best to look at horses with less weight and we shouldn’t discount the outsiders. A horse that fits this profile is SPEED THE PLOUGH one of Richard Hannon’s three hopes in the race, he placed on his first three starts (one of which he was disqualified from) before shedding his maiden tag at the yards stomping ground Windsor. He then went to Goodwood to compete in a very similar event to this one, where he suffered a rather torrid time of things, but he showed good heart battling well and making strong progress before being eased near the finish. He would of certainly been closer with less interference and having only been beaten around three lengths in total he wouldn’t have been far off. Richard Hughes partners another of the yards runners in the race, but a worthy replacement in Barzalona has been booked and if he can work his magic on this son of the speedy Kyllachy he may well be in the mix. Another Hannon runner that looks in with a good chance is Banaadeer, sent off as favourite for all of his starts he has only managed to win once. He looks to have a good level of ability and this has been highlighted by finishing runner up to a Brian Meehan colt who was well regarded enough to head for France in a bid to pick up some black type. When finishing runner up that day the Hannon colt suffered a bump at the start so there is valid argument he could have been closer to that horse on the day. He looks a colt with a fair amount of ability, but will be sent off a fairish price, If he can cope with the demands of the big field he may well be able to show his ability first hand. Experience may be a big factor in this race and one horse that may be well equipped is Jazz who has already competed at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. He has competed at high level in big fields so this shouldn’t faze him and if he can replicate the form shown at Goodwood he may be an interesting outsider.

    Racing Chat Thread

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    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread not long now and the jumps season will start to kick in thank god taken from elsewhere Holidays are over for Nicky Henderson's stable stars Trainer Nicky Henderson welcomed back several of his stable stars this week after their summer breaks. The Lambourn trainer beat Paul Nicholls to the trainers' title last season and his powerful team for this season make him the bookies' favourite to land back-to-back titles – he's 1/ 5 with Ladbrokes to do just that! His team from last season remains pretty much intact for the 2013-14 campaign, and what a team he has at his disposal! First off the juggernaut horseboxes arriving at Seven Barrows in Lambourn earlier this week was Gold Cup hero Bob's Worth, and he was quickly joined by wonder horse Sprinter Sacre and Arkle winner Simonsig. All looked well after their summer out at grass, although they were all carrying plenty of condition, something which Henderson will no doubt be keen to work on. He said: “They all look fantastic after their holidays and it's nice to have them back. They've had three weeks on the walkers and tomorrow will start a further three weeks of trotting about here, though not on the road, before moving on to a steady banter.” Sprinter Sacre was completing a three-hour journey from his holiday pastures at Juliet and David Minton's Mill House Stud in Much Wenlock, Shropshire. This season, he will be bidding to extend his unbeaten sequence over fences to 11, with Sandown's Tingle Creek Chase earmarked for his reappearance. That race is over two miles but he'll likely be stepping back up in trip at some point, having proved his stamina for 2m4f when winning at Aintree in the spring. Paddy Power make him 7/2 favourite for the King George on Boxing Day and just 1/2 to repeat his success in last season's Queen Mother Champion Chase. It was a trip of little more than 20 minutes for Bobs Worth and Simonsig, who were holiday companions and spent the summer under the care of Charlie and Tracy Vigors at Hillwood stud, near Marlborough. Running plans for both are still pretty fluid, although Hendesron has mentioned the possibility of starting Bob's Worth over hurdles, with Ascot's Long Walk one of the races under consideration. The eight-year-old is a general 3/1 shot to retain his Gold Cup crown next March and 5/2 with BetVictor, who are “non-runner free-bet” on all their Cheltenham Festival ante post markets. Henderson is keen to keep Simonsig apart from Sprinter Sacre for as long as possible, with Henderson saying of the Arkle winner: “I doubt that hurdling will be on the agenda for Simonsig, although I've always considered he has the ability to win a Champion Hurdle.” Simonsig is a top price 7/1 with Boylesports for the 2014 Queen Mother Champion Chase, behind stablemate Sprinter Sacre (2/5). That would be some race! 214 days, 15 hours, 48 minutes and 33 seconds until the 2014 Cheltenham Festival!

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