[Friday 2:40: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle]

Re: Friday 2:40: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle A race for proper NH types (the 2009 and 2011 winners went on to win the following season’s RSA Chase) where they should not run the risk of bumping into speedier horses from the Flat as can be the case in the Neptune, this test is principally about staying power and there have been a couple of brutal editions so the stamina factor is crucial. Six of the eight winners so far (and 18 of the 24 win-and-placed horses) had previously experienced what a three-mile hurdle had felt like unlike African Gold (though he does promise to stay well and connections were mulling over the Pertemps Final), I Shot The Sheriff, Le Bec and Utopies Des Bordes (though she is the winner of a Grade 1 chase in France over 2m6f on heavy ground and Henderson is adamant she will stay). Ballycasey has not run over 3m under Rules but did so in his three point-to-points. Three key guides run at Cheltenham earlier in the season are the Hyde, Bristol and Classic Novice Hurdles which have featured six of the eight winners between them. Coneygree won the first of those two events but misses the race with a late setback. He could, however, only finish third behind At Fishers Cross in the latter and that form was franked big time when the runner-up, The New One, hosed up in the Neptune. Equally as convincing is that five of the eight winners had raced at least twice over the course of which four already had winning course form to their name. At Fishers Cross also won a handicap at Cheltenham in December. Outside of Cheltenham it has been the race registered as the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle run at Haydock in late February that has been the only other race to feature more than one Albert Bartlett winner but this season’s winner, Two Rockers, ran in the Neptune. The most notable Irish guide so far has been the Synergy Security Services Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown in late-January over 2m4f won by Pont Alexandre and in which Our Vinnie finished third. It is also the race that Weapon’s Amnesty finished second in on his final start before becoming the first Irish-trained winner of this event. Liskennett also finished second in that event before filling the same berth in the Albert Bartlett and both were trained by Charles Byrnes as is Our Vinnie. Byrnes’ Powerstation also finished second in the Albert Bartlett. It took the Albert Bartlett just six runnings to produce three winners aged 7+ whereas it took the previous 72 combined runnings of the Supreme and Neptune to better that figure. I am not saying purely concentrate on novices aged seven or older but I am saying give them a lot more respect than for the Supreme or Neptune. Horses aged 7+ are the dual Cesarewitch winner Aaim To Prosper (9), Superior Quality (8) and Inish Island (7). No horse aged 8+ has won yet but the fact that only 14 have run yet four have hit the frame only strengthens the case for older novices. In addition to Charles Byrnes’ runners we should also respect Jonjo O’Neill’s entries as has been unrepresented for the last four seasons but Black Jack Ketchum and Wichita Lineman ran out convincing winners as short-priced favourites the previous two years so his contenders would be worth a look. Cloudy Copper (in the same ownership as Black Jack Ketchum) represents him this time. All eight winners had run at least three times over hurdles (which is not good for supporters of Ballycasey, Cloudy Copper, Le Bec, O’Faolain’s Boy, of which six had won a graded race. Graded race winners are At Fishers Cross, Inish Island, Our Vinnie and Utopie Des Bordes. Short List At Fishers Cross Our Vinnie Inish Island (Utopie Des Bordes) Conclusion AT FISHERS CROSS is the standout trends horse. Twice a winner at the course this season, including the same pattern race that Wichita Lineman and Bibs Worth won before they won the Albert Bartlett, he is also proven over 3m and has had his last two pieces of form franked when the runner-up then winning a pattern race, notably The New One of course who won the Neptune on Wednesday. He also therefore starts in the first five in the betting like 7 of the 8 winners and won or finished second last time out like 7 of the 8 winners. OUR VINNIE didn’t finish in the first two last time out but he was third in the same race that Charles Byrnes ran his Albert Bartlett winner who was also beaten in that race and another of his two runners-up in this race that was over 2m4f behind Pont Alexandre which would be a trip half a mile short of his best so he should improve plenty back up to 3m today He was given a sighter of the course early season which suggests Byrnes has had this race in mind for a long time and he is only one of five pattern race winners in the field (in fact he has won two including when outstaying the Neptune second Rule The World over this trip) which is something 6 of the 8 Albert Bartlett wins already had in the bag. Our Vinnie makes a lot of each-way appeal at a double-figure price. INISH ISLAND is also a pattern race winner and represents the red hot Willie Mullins. He may be their second string behind Ballycasey but he has much the stronger trends claims and was only 1½ lengths behind At Fishers Cross (gave 3lbs) back in December. UTOPIE DES BORDES gets the final berth. She is in brackets as she has one trend to overcome (not run over 3m) but she is a Grade 1 winner over 2m6f in heavy ground and receives a handy 5lbs mares’ allowance here. The only winning five-year-old was also a French-bred. A last-time-out winner who looks classy and a battler and representing the yard that had a 1-2 in this race two years ago who should start in the first five in the betting like 7 of the last 8 winners, she is certainly short list material.

[Friday 1:30: JCB Triumph Hurdle]

Re: Friday 1:30: JCB Triumph Hurdle JCB Triumph Hurdle There can be no question that this is a different race now to the one before the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap in 2005. For a start, seven of the eight winners could be found in the first four in the betting and were rated officially rated 138+ over hurdles. I prefer the 140+ horses and those yet to record that figure are Chris Pea Green, King Of Dudes, Lac Fontana, Sametegal and Somemothersdohavem. Cape Explorer, Gassin Golf and Masters Blazing don’t have a published official rating as yet as they are once-raced. Horses with plenty of 1s against their name usually win the Triumph and especially on their final start with 16 of the previous 19 winners passing the post in front last time out. That is a strong pattern when we consider that last-time-out winners regularly provide less than half the runners but are still operating at a winning strike rate of 84% since 1992. On that basis I can’t back horses beaten like last time out like Cape Explorer, Diakai, Gassin Golf, Kashmir Peak, King Of Dudes, Lac Fontana, Sametegal, Swnymor and Vasco Du Ronceray. Another notable change has been that horses lacking in hurdling experience are winning the Triumph Hurdle these days which was anything but the case beforehand. In fact, when Zarkandar won two years ago he became the first horse in the 48-year history of the race to win off the back of just one run over hurdles. In fact, three of the last five winners had run no more than twice over hurdles compared to just one winner between 1988-2007 which some will be as a positive for Cape Explorer, Gassin Golf, Hidden Justice (for last year’s winning stable), Lac Fontana, Masters Blazing, Rolling Star and Somemothersdhavem. Flat race form is also important as the last 14 Triumph winners that had a Flat campaign ran over 1m4f at least once which is against Kashmir Peak, King Of Dudes, and just one of the last 15 winners was rated lower than 80 on the level like Cape Explorer, Hidden Justice, Masters Blazing, Somemothersdohavem and Stocktons Wing. Seven of the last nine winners did not have their hurdling debut until at least December with four of those not running over timber until at least January. In fact, we never even saw two of the last three winners in Britain until they won the Adonis Hurdle three weeks before this race and that has been easily best the guide with as many as five of the last 13 winners going on to double up in the Triumph and that would probably have been six had Binocular not been re-routed at the last moment to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This year’s winner Irish Saint waits for Aintree so the Adonis is represented by Vasco Du Ronceray (2nd), Lac Fontana (3rd) and Chris Pea Green (6th) but, as we see, it is really only the Adonis winner that has mattered. The Grade 2 Finesse Hurdle on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham won by Rolling Star and the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow won by Ruacana (after Swnymor fell at the final flight when leading) have been underperforming as trials given their prestige. Only one of the 17 Finesse Hurdle winners to run in the Triumph has won and when Countrywide Flame improved on his second in the Finale Hurdle to win here last year he became the first participant from that race since 1994 to win the Triumph. There has been no Irish-trained winner since Scolardy in 2002 which is the only negative I can find for Our Conor. Other Irish runners are Diakali and Stocktons Wing. Nicky Henderson is chasing a sixth Triumph Hurdle however with Rolling Star and Paul Nicholls a third with Far West and Lac Fontana and Alan King his third with King Of Dudes. All runners have had a recent prep race so we can’t dismiss horses that have not run in the last 55 days. Short List Far West Rolling Star (Our Conor) Conclusion FAR WEST is a last-time-out winner representing a yard with two recent wins in the race (albeit with Flat breds and Far West is a jumps bred) that won the two juvenile races here in November and December that Katchit also won before he won this race. In fact, three winners since 1999 ran in the November race. The only negative regards ROLLING STAR is that Finesse Hurdle winners have generally underperformed here bar Katchit but otherwise he looks the type for a yard chasing their sixth Triumph win and he is a lightly-raced last-time-out winner rated over 140 which has been the way to go since the Fred Winter took away the social runners. That said, it looks like a number of social runners have been declared this season. If only OUR CONOR were British-trained as being Irish-trained is the only statistical point given the raiders’ recent record as visually he has been the most impressive juvenile hurdler this season.That said he did win what has been the most notable guide in the last two years (featured last year’s winner and second plus the season the year before) the Irish did win the Fred Winter so their juvenile hurdlers could be a cut above the British for a change and he is a last-time-out winner with the highest hurdles rating that also had run over 12f on the Flat and is the highest rated Flat horse in the race. Given all those positives allied to the fact that 7 of the 8 winners since the Fred Winter started in the first three in the betting, he still has to be short list material. The top three in the betting do look head and shoulders above the rest so I make no apologies purely suggesting them (especially given the recent SP stats) and I also suggest you look at perming them in forecasts and tricasts.

[Friday 5:15: Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase]

Re: Friday 5:15: Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Oiseau De Nuit became the highest-rated winner since 1997 when successful off a handicap mark of 145 two years ago and in doing so he also put an end to the 0-46 record of horses set to carry over 11st before jockeys’ allowances since Edredon Bleu won in 1998. The last winner to be officially rated over 145 was My Young Man 21 years ago though Tanks For That finished second off 149 last year. That’s strong enough to make me overlook the top eight in the handicap; Petit Robin, French Opera, His Excellency, Tanks For That, Kumbeshwar, Oiseau De Nuit, Benefficient and Ulck Du Lin. Nine of the last 12 winners were officially rated between 129-134 (and they also paid out winning straight forecasts in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008) but fewer horses are getting in off that kind of rating these days as the race grows in quality. Qualifiers, however, this season are Parsnip Pete and Gus Macrae. Novices has a better than one-in-three strike rate over the last three decades or so which is particularly catching (won 12 of the last 31 runnings) but more and more are running these days so the edge is slipping away as choosing from two or three is a darn sight easier than from six or seven. This season’s novices are the Arkle third, His Excellency, Benefficient (if he turns out again 24 hours after his Jewson win), Drumshambo, Marshal Zhukov, Tetlami, Alderwood, Viva Colonia and Parsnip Pete. Given that novices have such a strong Grand Annual record, it should not come as a shock to note that lightly-raced chasers very much hold the call to the extent that 13 of the last 14 winners had contested no more than 12 steeplechases. Therefore, if you are going to oppose a first-season chaser, I strongly advise that you keep the faith with a young, progressive horse especially in light of the fact that 49 of the last 56 win-and-placed horses were filled by horses under the age of ten. Horses aged in double figures to oppose are Petit Robin, French Opera, Tanks For That, Oiseau De Nuit, Oh Crick and King Edmund. Seven of the last eight British-trained winners had won at Cheltenham before with last year’s winner, Bellvano, being the exception. That is a positive for French Opera, His Excellency, Thanks For That, Oiseau De Nuit, Tetlami, Alderwood, Shooters Wood, Oh Crick and Tatenen. Nicky Henderson has held a strong record since this handicap was named in his father’s honour in 2004 which included a 1-2-4 last season in addition to Greenhope winning in 2006. In fact since 2004, the Seven Barrows team have saddled two winners, three runners-up (two of which were novices) and two other placed horses from 24 runners and they have attacked the race in style this year by declaring Petit Robin, French Opera, Tanks For That, Kid Cassidy, Tetlami and Anquetta. Punters have latched onto Paul Nicholls in a big way by sending off one of his representatives favourite in five of the last nine seasons collecting twice courtesy of St Pirran and Andreas and he runs Ulck Du Lin and Shooters Wood. Having posted four winners and three seconds in the Grand Annual during the last 13 renewals, outside of the cross-country race, this is the handicap chase at the Festival that the Irish have sussed out how to crack. It is not just the Grand National for which Irish trainers like to keep their chase mark protected before the weights are issued as their last three Grand Annual winners all had their final spin over hurdles (as did Nicky Henderson’s Greenhope). Their runners this season are Benefficient (if he runs) and Alderwood. Since Katabatic won following a 60-day absence back in 1990, of the subsequent 21 Grand Annual winners, only Fota Island has won this Festival handicap following a break of over of 45 days. Maybe it is a coincidence or maybe it isn’t but the last two horses to defy over a 45-day absence had the class to win or finish second in the Queen Mother Champion Chase 12 months later. Horses off the course for longer than 45 days are Kumbeshwar, Ulck Du Lin, Kid Cassidy, Rody, Short List ALDERWOOD TETLAMI PARSNIP PETE GUS MACRAE ANQUETTA Conclusion Once we take out those too high in the ratings, too old or have been off the course too long, it’s a case of which of the remaining 12 horses hit the most positive trends and TETLAMI and ALDERWOOD come out on top being novices, course winners and either trained by Henderson or in Ireland. Alderwood is the narrow preference being a previous Festival winner who is off a lower mark than his hurdles rating and owned by J P McManus who has had a winner of this race and a number of others run very well. The bottom two in the handicap fit into the ratings category so I will also include the novice PARSNIP PETE plus GUS MACRAE and I would like one more Henderson horse given his fine record so the lightly-weight ANQUETTA gets that vote having finished fourth in this race last year

[Friday 2:05: Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle]

Re: Friday 2:05: Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle The last nine winners all carried 11st or less (only one horse has carried more than 11st 8lbs into the frame since 1979 and no winner has carried more than that same weight for 53 years) but, of more interest, is that the last seven winners were all officially rated in the 130s. We are, however, just about clinging on to that trend as both the last two winners raced off 139. Only one winner has been officially rated over 145 since 1998 and the record-high winning rating (after all horses’ ratings were raised due to slippage over a decade ago) was Sporazene off 151. Therefore, horses rated 145+ can go; Brampour (first time blinkers), Midnight Game, Cotton Mill, Hisaabaat and Edgardo Sol. To win six of the last ten renewals from less than 25% representation (including five of the last six) makes this an exceptional race in recent times for the Irish whose representatives this year are Midnight Game, Hisaabaat, Tennis Cap, Discoteca, Abbey Lane (ran in the Coral Cup two days ago), Princeton Plains, Shadow Catcher, Il Fenomeno and Ted Veale. The recent run of successes for the Irish also goes some way to explaining the lack of winning course form amongst winners’ profiles, the last being Master Tern 13 years ago. Five-year-olds have such a good record. An exceptionally good record in fact having won eight of the 14 runnings since 1997 from approximately 20% representation so make that has to be an extra trick for Hisaabaat, Ranjaan, Discoteca, Shadow Catcher and Kian’s Delight. Alderwood wasn’t your average Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle-winning novice last season aged eight and having his thirteenth start over hurdles. Officially, however, he was a novice having failed to win until recording a maiden hurdle victory at Killarney ten months earlier so, in victory, he became the eighth winner in the last nine runnings to have been either a first-or-second season hurdler. Seven of the last 11 Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winners contested either the Betfair Hurdle or Boylesports.com Hurdle, the most valuable two-mile hurdles run in Britain or Ireland before the County so perhaps no great surprise the form of those races has carried on here. Contenders that ran in the Betfair Hurdle are Cotton Mill (2nd), Princeton Plains (8th), Manyriverstocross (10th) Punjabi (14th) and Ronaldo Des Mottes (pulled up) whereas Abbey Lane (1st), Ted Veale (3rd), Il Fenomeno (5th), and Shadow Catcher (14th) contested the Boylesports.com Hurdle. Both of Willie Mullins County Hurdle winners ran in that race which he won with Abbey Lane and as there is a 100,000 euros bonus if he can win any race at the Festival, he may have another crack here failing in the Coral Cup on Wednesday. With more luck Paul Nicholls could easily have trained five of the last nine winners but a tally three victories and two seconds and he runss Edgardo Sol (second in last year’s race), Ranjaan and Brampour. I haven’t seen a better jockey than Ruby Walsh when it comes to giving a horse a hold-up ride at Cheltenham so this kind of race suits him down to the ground and he will be gunning for a remarkable fifth win in the last ten years and he is aboard Nicholls’ Ranjaan. Others stats to bear in mind are that only four of the last 48 win-and-placed horses raced prominently throughout and, prior to 2008, 32 of the previous 33 winners started at no bigger than 16/1 so, with four of the last five winners striking at 20/1+, this is no longer the punter-friendly handicap of times gone by. Short List SHADOW CATCHER TED VEALE IF FENOMENO KIAN’S DELIGHT (RANJAAN) Conclusion What we want is a first or season hurdler rated in the 130s which gives a starting point of It’s A Gimme, Shadow Catcher, Il Fenomeno, Ifandbutwhynot, Claret Cloak, Ted Veale, Kian’s Delight and Kings Lad. However, as RANJAAN is just 1lb higher on 140 (the last two winners were rated 139) and he is five-year-old (great record) representing Nicholls and Walsh who have been mustard in this race, I want him on the short list. Trying to cut the other eight down to four, as the Irish have won 5 of the last 6 runnings and the Boylesports.com Hurdle has been a good guide then TED VEALE, IL FENOMENO and SHADOW CATCHER can’t not go on the short list. Ted Veale fared best in third that day and was going best of all turning for home but didn’t quite get home on heavy ground so this better surface will help. If Fenomeno ran really well in fifth in first-time blinkers given they lit him to the extent he hit the front sooner than ideal. He is classy and speedy and could be the best each-way value of the 20/1+shots in the race. Shadow Catcher was back in fourteenth but we have already seen one Gordon Elliott win a handicap hurdle this season after not showing much this season so don’t be surprised if this has been the long term plan for this five-year-old who had a little warm up on the All-weather Flat three weeks ago and ran well until hampered two out in last year’s Triumph Hurdle. The final berth goes to KIAN’S DELIGHT being a five-year-old. He has not run over hurdles since August but he had a little spin on the Flat 15 days ago to put him right for this race.

[Friday 4:40: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle]

Re: Friday 4:40: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Just four years to work off so trends are thin on the ground. The most striking factor so far is that all four winners were second-season hurdlers in a race that has so far been dominated by the up-and-coming brigade. Of the 16 horses to pay a place dividend, only two were not in their first or second season over timber (both were third-season hurdlers). The majority will be first or second season hurdlers so I will list the minority that are not and who therefore don’t interest me from a trends perspective; Solix, Toner D’Oudairies, First Avenue, Havingotascoobydo, Act Of Kalanisi, Stopped Out, Nagpur, Harry Hunt, Art Professor and Paint The Clouds. To all intents and purposes, this is basically a limited handicap with less than a stone covering the whole field for all four runnings. Therefore there has to be an argument for keeping it simple and attempting to identify the best horse in the race as attempting to plot one up like for the novice chase version of this race ion Tuesday which was won by the top weight. For example, 24 runners faced the starter last season and it was two horses in the top six in the weights that fought out the finish. The previous season’s top weight, Son Of Flicka, came desperately close to giving weight away all round only being reeled in within 20 yards of the winning post by Sir Des Champs and, 12 months earlier, Pause And Clause, carried second-top weight of 11st 10lbs to victory underlining the class angle again. On that basis, I would say give extra attention to those in the top third of the weights. Nicky Henderson has had a right crack in the first four runnings where he has already notched up as many as six top-five finishers including taking the inaugural running with the runaway winner, Andytown, before preparing the second, fourth and fifth the following season. Two third-place finishes in the last two years have cemented his extremely good start to this race and it is also worth highlighting that four of the six Henderson-trained horses to have recorded a top-five position also had winning course form so pay particular attention to those. This time he runs his mares, Kells Belle and Ma Filleule. Not quite the 13 he said he might run at his media day! How David Pipe must wish for a similar record to Henderson in what he calls “Dad’s Race” but it just hasn’t fallen right for him so far. For understandable reasons there will be plenty of focus on the yard’s entries again but just one Pipe’s 13 runners has hit the frame. His only runner this year is the likely favourite, Gevrey Chambertin. Irish-based stables haven’t tackled this race in numbers as yet with just eight runners in four years but Sir Des Champs was their sole representative when successful two years ago and their two raiders finished second and fourth 12 months ago so they should be kept very much on your radar and especially if owned by Gigginstown House Stud as all three carried their maroon and white silks. Make Your Mark and Edeymi represent Gigginstown this year in addition to last season’s second Toner D’Oudairies. I wouldn’t go too mad on this but, for the record, jockeys claiming 3lbs were responsible for the 1-2-3-4 last season meaning that they dominated the race for the second year running as they also filled eight of the first ten places in 2011. Short List Edeymi Ma Filleule Make Your Mark Salubrious (Toner D’Oudaries) Conclusion EDEYMI appeals on trends being a second-season hurdler that has run well at the course before (second in the Fred Winter last year) like two other winners and represents an owner whose three runners in the race have finished first, third and fourth and he is also in the top third in the weights. The on-fire Willie Mullins won this for Gigginstown two years ago so his MAKE YOUR MARK (who ran in the Neptune last year) is also interesting. Let’s go for the Gigginstown full house and also short list last year’s narrow runner-up TONER D’OUDARIES even if he is a third-season hurdler as he was cruising coming to the final flight but was just beaten by a neck and he is only 2lbs higher this years. Given Nicky Henderson’s record, we should one his pair and I prefer the younger MA FILLEULE who his trainer suggested as his best handicap chance of the week at the Sandown Preview Evening on Saturday. Paul Nicholls’ SALUBRIOUS towards the top of the handicap would be my other short listed horse. He is open to improvement on just his sixth hurdles start and he is a last time out who have won approximately 50% of all handicap hurdles at the Festival since 1993 and looks well handicapped on his second to At Fisher Cross at the Hennessy Meeting.

[Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup The last 13 Gold Cup winners had already won at Grade 1 level so any of The Giant Bolster, Cape Tribulation, Sunnyhillboy or Monbeg Dude would be an unusual winner if successful. On the face of it, the fact that ten of the last 21 winners were second-season chasers is notable but it does not slap you hard in the face. That said, they are usually heavily outnumbered so it reads better than first implies and they have a very strong hands this season with the first three in the betting Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti as well as Bog Warrior (if he runs here rather than the World Hurdle) and Monbeg Dud. If any of those three big second-season novices do win, unless there is a move for Long Run, that would mean 13 consecutive Gold Cup winners will have started in the first three in the betting. As many as 44 years have now passed since the Gold Cup winner was aged older than ten which is a big negative for Sunnyhillboy. In fact, in the 13 runnings since the 1998 Gold Cup, all 62 horses aged 10+ have been beaten which included 14 horses sent off at 10/1 or lower and four outright favourites. Cheltenham is not a straightforward test and finding a rhythm, especially over fences, is paramount. Therefore I do feel there is some course-specialist element that we would be foolish to ignore. Nine of the last 12 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before and the big non-qualifier on that count is Silviniaco Conti who has deliberately been kept away from Cheltenham over fences. Others that have not finished in the first two at the Festival before are Bog Warrior (never run at Cheltenham), Monbeg Dude (not run at the Festival before) and Wayward Prince (though only beaten a length into third in the RSA Chase). Without question the King George VI Chase has been the outstanding guide to the Gold Cup with nine of the last 13 Gold Cup winners taking their chance. Long Run became the fifth horse to complete the King George-Gold Cup double two seasons ago in the space of just nine years and he will be bidding to do likewise again after he fought back to deny Captain Chris by a neck with The Giant Bolster never going a yard (pulled up) on his first run on a right handed track in a long while so I would ignore his effort. See More Business and Imperial Commander have run shckers in the King George only to win the Gold Cup later in the season. Ireland’s best guide has been the Lexus Chase featuring four of the last eight winners. This season’s renewal was a real spectacle with less than a length covering Tidal Bay, First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs and the latter would probably have won had he jumped two out properly. The Betfair Chase has been a good guide in its few years of existence with three winners and the 1-2-3 of Silviniaco Conti, Long Run and The Giant Bolster lock horns again. Eight of the last 11 winners did not run during the same calendar year but we have to go back 22 years since a Gold Cup winner had been off the course for any further back than Boxing Day which is not in Bobs Worth’s favour. The requirement to be on an in-form horse is important with 11 of the last 12 finishing either first or second last time out which is against Monbeg Dude, Sunnyhillboy and Wayward Prince and, with regards to winning form earlier in the season, 12 of the last 17 winners had at least a 50% success rate which is not the case for The Giant Bolster, Sir Des Champs, Captain, Chris, Sunnyhillboy or Wayward Prince. Since Mr Mulligan won off the back of seasonal form figures of 4F in 1997, only Imperial Commander has failed to win earlier in his Gold Cup-winning campaign which is what Sunnyhillboy, The Giant Bolster and Wayward Prince are trying to achieve. Of the last 12 winners only War Of Attrition failed to enter the race with a rating off at least 166. The non-qualifiers in this cont are Bog Warrior (153), Cape Tribulation (165), Monbeg Dude (138), Sir Des Champs (162), Sunnyhillboy (152), The Giant Bolster (164) and Wayward Prince (147). Front runners have a one-in-five strike rate over the last three decades (though there is no obvious front runner this time if Bog Warrior doesn’t run). Maybe Long Run in first-time cheekpieces? Paul Nicholls has trained four winners and if Silviniaco Conti wins Nicholls will be the first trainer in history to win the Gold Cup with four different horses. Short List Sir Des Champs Long Run Captain Chris Conclusion You can find negative trends for all horses so it is case of how you interpret which are most important. I am struggling to have Bobs Worth as a trends-based horse arriving here off just one run this season and not having run since before Christmas as we have to go back to 1991 to find the last winner just one run and I can’t recall a winner not to have had its last race as far back at December 1st. I think that is important. Silviniaco Conti’s lack of Cheltenham form means he is also tough to include so if one of the first three in the betting is to win for the thirteenth straight year I feel it is SIR DES CHAMPS from the red-hot Willie Mullins stable. He ran in the Lexus Chase which has featured four of the last eight and is 2-2 for at the Cheltenham Festival and promises to improve again for another step up in trip so the only negative is he is not rated 166+ but neither was Gigginstown Stud’s other Gold Cup winner, War Of Attrition, who like Sir Des Champs was brought around steadily. Being the King George winner, LONG RUN has to make the short list given their excellent conversion rate in the Gold Cup of late with five winners in nine years. He also contested the Betfair Chase like thee recent winners, has placed at worst in all three runs at the Cheltenham Festival (in fact he has never been out of the first three in his 24-race career and he could front run in first-time cheekpieces and front runners win the Gold Cup more often than they are entitled to. Having finished second in the King George and won at the Festival before then CAPTAIN CHRIS is worth the final short list berth. The ground is also coming in his favour and he is only one of four horses that are rated 166+ like 11 of the last 12 winners. I think he is the forgotten horse of the race and represents good each-way at a double figure price.

[Friday 4:00: CGA Foxhunter Steeple Chase]

Re: Friday 4:00: CGA Foxhunter Steeple Chase CGA Foxhunter Chase Twenty of the last 22 winners were aged ten or younger from just about bang on 50% representation so horses aged 11+ are just not for me and especially when we consider that that those two had won this race before. This year they take up a third of the field; Backstage, Coombe Hill, Dante’s Storm, Doctor Kingsley, Faasel, Hoopy, Keenan’s Future and That’s Rhythm and are unsurprisingly not for me. Latching onto the youngest of the most-fancied horses is a simple line of thinking that would have found you winners such as Rushing Wild in 1992, Elegant Lord in 1996, Earthmover in 1998, Castle Mane in 1999, Kingscliff in 2003, Cappa Bleu in 2009 and Salsify in 2012. Salsify is the joint-youngest horse in the race again and obviously well fancied after winning it as a seven-year-old last season. Of the last 27 winners, all but five had also been successful on their previous outing so that would be second strong negative pattern and certainly means that Coombe Hill, Current Exchange, Faasel, Keenan’s Future, Louis Pasteur, Merchant Royal, Oscar Delta, Rumbury Grey and Tricky Trickster are not for me. In fact, the 1-2-3 in four of the last five years had also won last time out (just a 1-2 on the other occasion). Previous form in the CGA Foxhunter Steeplechase is worthy of strong consideration and three winners going back to 2004 contested the race 12 months earlier. Since Double Silk won back-to-back runnings in 1993/94, the finishing position of the reigning title holder (Salsify) that returned 12 months later reads: 5P36204U which isn’t great but he was a young horse last season that is probably still improving unlike most of those. Last season’s second and third, Chapoturgeon and Oscar Delta, are also back for another crack as are Merchant Royal (7th) Keenan’s Future (14th). The Irish have been strong in the hunter chasing division over the last half a dozen years and Salsify gave the raiders a second victory on the spin following on from Zemsky with Oscar Delta finishing third on both occasions. It also wasn’t so long ago that they were responsible for nine of the 12 top-four finishers between 2006-2008. In addition to Salsify, they are also represented by Oscar Delta (third for the last two years), Gordon Elliott’s Backstage who has won his last seven starts (all in point-to-points but just one run this season) and Merchant Royal. Four-time Foxhunters’ winning trainer, Richard Barber, almost completed the nap hand last season when Chapoturgeon only found Salsify a length too good when sent off the 3/1 favourite. In total contrast to the Aintree Fox Hunters, it is horses that started their career in point-to-points or hunter chases that have been dominating the Cheltenham equivalent. Whereas eight of the last 11 winners of the Aintree Fox Hunters’ were ex-handicappers (or better) that had their attentions turned to hunting chasing, 21 of the last 24 winners of this prize were brought up from a point-to-pointing background. Those that did not start life in a point-to-point or hunter chase are Galant Nuit, Faasel, Tricky Trickster, Backstage, Chapoturgeon, Cottage Oak, Earth Dream, Hoopy, Merchant Royal, Radetsky March and That’s Rhythm. Short List Salsify Cottage Oak Chapoturgeon Conclusion Last year’s race is a good guide, the Irish have fared well of late and backing the shortest priced of the youngest horses in the race has produced many winners so last year’s classy winner SALSIFY (for whom the ground is drying up nicely for) who hails from the point-to-point field from the start unlike the horses that follow him in the betting is the obvious trends choice even if its has been 18 years since the last back-to-back winner (though ten horses didn’t turn up to defend their title in that period). He also won the same trial in Ireland last month last time out as he did last year. Last-time-out winners under the age of 11 is usually pretty safe and top of those that appeals most is COTTAGE OAK with the ground also coming in his favour. The only negative is he is not originally from a point-to-point background but of the 21 of the last 24 winners to start off between the flags, the three that did not were in the last seven years. Having finished second in last year’s race (the best guide given the hunter chase at Punchestown last spring was abandoned) CHAPOTURGEON is also a serious player and especially combined with the fact he is trained by Richard Barber who has prepared as many as four winners of this down the years. He is still in the right age bracket and won in facile fashion last time out at Newbury. Creevytennant has won at Cheltenham but his trainer reports he is better on right-handed courses so the former close-up Kim Muir third GALANT NUIT gets the final berth. Like Cottage Oak he didn’t start off in points, but he is at the right address for the Cheltenham Festival (Ferdy Murphy) and has been quietly winning his point-to-points this season. What A Laugh, Divine Intavention and Benevictus are also last-time-out winners under the age of 11 but I am uncomfortable suggesting more than four horses for a short list for a non handicap and they would appear to have it to do on pure form.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread thoughts with JT mcnamara and his family wish him a speedy recovery

[cheltenham chat thread 2013]

Re: cheltenham chat thread 2013 is this bet void as its still showing up on my account as open [TABLE=class: tableData tableList]

[TR] [TD]09 Sep 12 / 18:34 [/TD] [TD]Sixfold(s)[/TD] [TD]

• 1
• 2
• 3
• 4
• 5
• 6

[/TD] [TD]

• Standard
• Standard
• Standard
• Standard
• Standard
• Standard

[/TD] [TD]

• 12th Mar 2013 - Champion Hurdle – Outright
• 12th Mar 2013 - **** Mares Hurdle – Outright
• 12th Mar 2013 - Arkle Challenge Trophy – Outright
• 13th Mar 2013 - Queen Mother Champion Chase – Outright
• 14th Mar 2013 - World Hurdle – Outright
• 15th Mar 2013 - Cheltenham Gold Cup – Outright

[/TD] [TD]

• Hurricane Fly @ 6/1
• Quevega @ EVS
• Simonsig @ 3/1
• Sprinter Sacre @ EVS
• Big Buck's @ 11/8
• Sir Des Champs @ 6/1

[/TD] [TD]

• Won
• Won
• Won
• Won
• –
• –

[/TD] [TD]£0.50[/TD] [TD] O/3052018/0017224/F [/TD] [/TR]

[/TABLE]

[Jump racing ~ Thursday 14th March]

Re: Jump racing ~ Thursday 14th March Jewson Novices’ Chase - cheltenham 1:30 Just two years to work off so no real trends as yet. Of the eight top-four finishers so far, six had run in at a handicap at last season’s Festival and all eight had shown a decent level of Cheltenham form so Desert Cry (9th in the County Hurdle), Molotof (13th in the Martin Pipe), Changing Times (pulled up in the Martin Pipe), Third Intention (8th in Coral Cup) and Argocat (9th in the Fred Winter) qualify on the first score though, as you can seen, none exactly shone at this meeting 12 months ago. Of those with general Cheltenham form, Aupcharlie was third in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper two years, Captain Conan won the Grade 2 November Novices’ Chase at The Open Meeting, Dynaste won the 2m4f novice chase at the same meeting, Module won a handicap hurdle on his British debut and Sire Collonges won a novice chase at the October Meeting. That leaves Marito and Texas Jack on the sidelines having not run at Cheltenham before. Benefficient has run here before but not well and not in a handicap either when his trainer felt he failed to handle the course in last season’s Neptune (10th) and is running as his large enthusiastic group of owners are keen to run at the Festival. He is a two-time Grade 1 winner however and a first-time hood has been applied. Both winners were Irish-trained and they are four-handed with Argocat, Texas Jack, Marito and Benefficient attempting to emulate Sir Des Champs and Noble Prince. Just using other general novice chase stats at the Festival to help us a little further, only three of the last 50 combined runnings of the Arkle and RSA have been won by a horse that finished outside the first two which would be against Changing Times and Marito. Short List MODULE DYNASTE ARGOCAT Conclusion Very few trends to go on. As all eight top-four finishers had good Cheltenham form, I will concentrate on those at the expense of those that ran in a handicap at last season’s Festival but didn’t exactly shine. The Tom George-trained MODULE won at Cheltenham on his British debut in a handicap hurdle coming over from France but an injury forced him out of the Festival. He has impressed in three runs over fences so far and looks to have the speed for 2m and the stamina for 3m so this trip can be ideal. DYNASTE appeals more than Captain Conan at this trip. Both have impressed in novice chases here at The Open Meeting but Dynaste really impressed over this trip back in November whereas Captain Conan won over 2m and then made very hard work of beating Third Intention when upped to this kind of distance who he twice easily beaten over 2m which suggests this distance is not his optimum and he is only running here as the stable had Simonsig for the Arkle. ARGOCAT appeals most of the Irish. We need at least one Irish horse as they have won both runnings of the Jewson. Although ninth of 24 in the Fred Winter, he ran well for a long way and has been trained for this race since winning over Christmas. Pertemps Final - cheltenham 2:05 Of all the handicaps at the Festival, this has been the one where followers have trends have struggled in of late (not helped by the last nine winners all started at double-figure SPs so don’t be afraid to chance some tasty-priced contenders) so hopefully better luck this time. There are no five-year-olds declared to oppose this year so the main negative pattern is that horses rated higher than 142 have been beaten in each of the last 12 years so those towards to the top of the handicap have struggled big time since the turn of the century. Horses rated over 142 are the top six in the weights; Fair Along, Junior, Catch Me, Shutthefrontdoor, First Fandango and Close House. The surprising positive stat for a race many think is a plotter’s paradise (but not anymore) is that over half of the last 18 winners (9 of 17) won last time out which is a tick for the likes of Sam Winner (if you include his Jumpers Bumper), Ely Brown and Top Of The Range in addition to Fair Along, Shutthefrontdoor and Close House but that latter trio have the official ratings stats against them. Top Of The Range would be more interesting if Nicky Henderson’s record in this race didn’t read 0-22. Equally surprising is how well the oldies have fared with horses aged 8+ winning six of the last seven runnings. Qualifiers on that score are Bouggler, Bakbenscher, Pateese, American Spin, Berties Dream. Stonemaster, Jetson, Ely Brown, American Trilogy and Hada Men (though they wouldn’t have many other positives to go with it) as well as the top three in the weights who you know I am already against. The Irish haven’t won for seven years but have won five times in total and have gone close of late with the runner-up for the last three years and there representatives this time are Catch Me, Action Master, Berties Dream, Stonemaster and Jetson. All five of their winners qualified via the Leopardstown route which featured Stonemaster (3rd), Jetson (6th) and Catch Me (20th) The best British qualifiers have been at Cheltenham in October which was won by Action Master (American Spin was back in 7th) and Haydock in February in which Bouggler finished third. The Wincanton qualifier won by Close House is the only long-standing qualifier never to have featured the winner of the Final (American Trilogy was back in fourth). Of the home team, Jonjo O’Neill has trained three winners and runs Holywell and Shutthefrontdoor. Two of those were owned by J P McManus (who has also had three winners in total) and his colours are represented by Catch Me and Shutthefrontdoor. Short List ELY BROWN SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR ACTION MASTER SAM WINNER HOLYWELL Conclusion ELY BROWN has already won of the qualifiers so would be a very worthy winner and entering this race as a last-time-out winner and being of an older vintage (8+), he is the only horse to meet those two stats so he makes the short list. Although he is higher in the weights than ideal (though only just by 2lbs), the fact that SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR is a last-time-out winner representing a trainer and owner who have won this race three times means he still makes the short list. I make the case in The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide that we should use the 142 ratings barrier only if we want to be ruthless arguing that 150+ is the real killer, so as he is strong on other trends, I can let the fact go that he is just 2lbs over the 142 mark. Having won the Cheltenham Qualifier which has the best record of all the qualifiers for the final ACTION MASTER interests me, especially coming off a 77-day absence. He has been beaten twice since but that wouldn’t be bother me if they decided this Final was the plan after that impressive victory here in October. We need another last-time-out winner given their fine record and SAM WINNER has to make any short list as he could easily be thrown in off a handicap mark of 140. For a horse that found 2m1f way too short in the Triumph Hurdle to finish just behind mid-160s horses like Zarkandar and Grandouet tells us he could have a lot in hand of the Handicapper and especially as he is expected to improve again for a step up to three miles. Jonjo O’Neill also runs HOLYWELL who is also respected. Runner-up in all four starts this season, he now runs in first-time blinkers which stats say isn’t always a plus but he is lazy horse that hits flat spots so in my view he needs headgear to improve him and he has a shot at giving his trainer a fourth winner of this handicap. Ryanair Chase - cheltenham 2:40 Course form has been critical so far with seven of the eight winners (and six of the runners-up) having won at Cheltenham before so that would count against For Non Stop who has run good races at the last two Festivals (fell at last when in second in the Coral Cup and third in the Jewson). Since the upgrade to Grade 1 status, four of the five winners had already won a Grade 1 race, four of five winners were rated 162+ and horses with solid form over three miles have started taking over from the 2½ mile specialists that contested the big early-season handicaps over that trip at the course before Christmas. Non Grade 1 winners are Champion Court, For Non Stop and Ghizao. The same three horses are also rated under 162 and wouldn’t be at their best at three miles either so are hard for me to fancy. Menorah struggled on his only attempt at three miles and although he won the Peterborough Chase, the winner of that race has a woeful record here (only one of the seven winners to run here has even placed). The other stat to note since this race became a Grade 1 is the four of the five winners contested the King George VI Chase which is where Champion Chase does pick up a tick as he finished a non-staying fourth. The big worry, however, is he had a very hard race that day and was beaten at odds-on in a three-runner graduation chase next time which suggest that Kempton run (where he lead turning for home having set a strong gallop) has left its mark. Cue Card finished one place behind in fifth also failing to stay in the conditions. Pulled up was Riverside Theatre who was found to be suffering from ulcers but is reportedly over then now. Only one winner in eight years has started at bigger than 6/1 and the big southern yards have dominated with two winners for Henderson (Riverside Theatre), O’Neill (Albertas Run) and Nicholls (Ghizao). No wins yet for the Irish from 23 runners but First Lieutenant would arguably be their best ever chance. Riverside Theatre beat Albertas Run into second last year and the previous season’s renewal has been a big factor with three runners-up going one place better the previous year as well as a back-to-back Ryanair winner. Another notable guide is the Ascot Chase won by Cue Card as three of the eight Ryanair winners finished in the first three in that Grade 1 race last month. Short List CUE CARD RIVERSIDE THEATRE ALBERTAS RUN Conclusion First Lieutenant has the strongest form of these this season alongside Cue Card and has a big chance of being Ireland’s first Ryanair winner in the race his owner sponsors and also missing the Gold Cup for this for which he was fifth favourite. The poor showing of the Irish so far means he can’t be a trends-based selection though. CUE CARD certainly can though as he will start at under 6/1, he has a good Festival record (142), he ran in the best guide (the King George) and won the second-best guide (of races run during the current season) when winning the Ascot Chase. It’s a case with him whether his natural exuberance can be curtailed to be fully effective at the trip as horses with proven ability over 3m have fared best since this was a Grade 1. Last season’s Ryanair has featured four of the last seven winners so the 2012 1-2 of Riverside Theatre and Albertas Run also make the short list. RIVERSIDE THEATRE was pulled up in the King George (4 of the last 5 Ryanair winners ran in that race) and the smaller field this year could see him handle the hustle and bustle of the race better as he was never going in last year’s race but still won. Trained by Nicky Henderson who is chasing a third win in this race, he has become a little bit forgotten. Backing 12-year-olds first time out at the Festival is not normal practice but I wouldn’t knock ALBERTAS RUN’s chances of going close again. A three-time Festival winner including two wins and a second in this race, he finds his form when the sun comes out and the ground dries up and a smaller field will also suit him as he likes to race prominently. With the dead eight declared, he makes most each-way appeal of those likely to start at above 6/1 (7 of the 8 winners started at no bigger) with ground turning more in his favour. Ladbrokes World Hurdle - cheltenham 3:20 Last season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle has been the best place to start in recent seasons with six of the last ten winners having contested the race 12 months earlier. However, there is no multiple previous winner like Inglis Drever or Big Buck’s so that is a trend that I would be very sceptical about following. If you fancy last year’s fifth, Oscar Whisky, do note that the last nine winners to have run in the previous season’s World Hurdle either won or finished second 12 months earlier. The last winner to run in the previous season’s renewal that failed to occupy one of the top two positions back in 1981. Others returning from another crack from last year’s renewal are Smad Place (3rd), Cross Kennon (7th) and So Young (9th). Being the only Grade 1 staying hurdle to take place over three miles before the Festival in Britain or Ireland, it is only natural that the Long Walk Hurdle remains top of the shop as a World Hurdle guide. Going back to and including 1993, over half of World Hurdle winners (10 from 19) contested Ascot’s premier hurdle race won this season by Reve De Sivola who then also won the other notable guide when taking the Rewards4Racing Cleeve Hurdle. Going back to and including 2007, seven of the 12 horses to finish in the first two in the World Hurdle prepped in the Cleeve which saw Reve De Sivola just fend off Oscar Whisky. Remarkably, no horse stepping up in trip having contested the Champion Hurdle in a previous season has won for 21 years. Peddlers Cross and Oscar Whisky finished second and third behind Hurricane Fly in the 2011 Champion Hurdle so they would be creating a little bit of history if successful. As would Zaidpour who was eighth in last year’s Champion Hurdle and Solwhit who sixth in the Champion Hurdle three years ago. Punters endured a sticky patch between 1997 and 1999 when Karshi, Princeful and Anzum caused 20/1, 16/1 and 40/1 upsets respectively but, since then, it has been the leading fancies all the way as the last 12 winners could be all be found in the first four in the betting (11 of those started in the first three in the market) and none returning at a bigger starting price than 8/1. It is remarkable to think that the Irish have failed to win this race since 1995 having won eight of the previous 24 runnings. They have had a number of runners-up including Voler La Vedette last year and connections of Bog Warrior and Solwhit will be hoping to put that record straight this season. Willie Mullins also runs Zaidpour and So Young but they have it to do. If you fancy a horse that has something to prove in terms of recent wellbeing then you might want to think again as the last 25 winners all finished in the first four last time out. Get Me Out Of Here may have finished second at the last three Festivals but he enters this race off two poor runs, albeit on testing ground that he dislikes. The ground is coming back in his favour. Oscara Dara impressed in the Lanzarote Hurdle but then disappointed in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. Cloudy Spirit also fails this stat but is hopelessly out of his depth being rated 130 which is the minimum to be allowed to run in the race. Not only that, the last 11 winners had failed to finish out the first two on all their starts earlier in the season so that is a cross against Celestial Halo and Cross Kennon. No five-year-old has ever been successful which is the doubt over Wonderful Charm (plus a rating of just 149 some 18lbs below Oscar Whisky and Reve De Sivola), and, believe it or not, just one front runner (Limestone Lad) has held on for a place since 1996 re-affirming just how hard it is to make the running over hurdles at Cheltenham and especially in staying events and even more so on the stiffer New Course with just two flights of hurdles in the last three-quarters of a mile which is not ideal for Bog Warrior if he chooses to make it though Cross Kennon and Celestial Halo could take him on. Short List REVE DE SIVOLA GET ME OUT OF HERE SMAD PLACE Conclusion Having won the two most notable trials REVE DE SIVOLA has to be the main trends pick. He is also the right kind of age, is the strongest stayer in the race, the joint top-rated horse in the race and is a two-time course winner and a two-time placed horse at the Cheltenham Festival. He is going to be very hard to kick out of the first three and is taken to outstay Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross who are attempting to be the first winner to have run in a Champion Hurdle for 21 years. Every other horse has at least one negative pattern to overcome so it’s a question of looking for a contender with more dubious trends against them and that would be GET ME OUT OF HERE who failed to place last time out. As reasoned earlier, however, that would have been on heavy ground he detested (plus over an inadequate 2m) but he comes to life at Cheltenham in March finishing second in the Supreme, Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle and Coral Cup in the last three years and he looks to have trained with the spring in mind again. His trainer has won the race before with Iris’s Gift so knows what is required and the ground is quickening up all the time so he makes each-way appeal. SMAD PLACE gets the final short list berth for another trainer that knows what it takes to win this race (My Way de Solzen). He only fails on not having finished in the first two in last year’s race but he was third, and that third placing was when only a five-year-old so the run can be marked up in that respect as it is a hard race for five-year-olds having never won it. With another year on his back, he is also interesting and is reportedly only just coming right for the first time this season having not run since finishing second in the best trial. He also makes each-way at double-figure odds. Byrne Group Plate - cheltenham 4:00 Given that just two of the last 25 winners ran off handicap marks of higher than 141, this has to be the statistical starting point. Just to underline this further, over the last three years, eight of the nine horses to finish in the first three could be found in the bottom seven in the handicap. On that basis, I have to gloss over the 142+ horses which are the top 13 in the weights (so over half the field). The weight-carried stats are equally compelling with 16 of the last 18 winners saddled with no more than 11st including the 1-2-3 for the last four seasons. If the 157-rated Hunt Ball catches your imagination despite these stats, also consider that horses a total of 25 horses rated 150+ since 1990 have chanced their luck without success with only four placing. Other 150+ rated horses are Poquelin and Calgary Bay. A seventh success since 1999 in the Plate for French-breds last season having missed out in the two previous years after Something Wells and Ping Pong Sivola gave them (and Venetia Williams) a 1-2 in 2009. It is also worth remembering that they were responsible for the runner-up on four of the six occasions they missed out so they are over-performing in a major way when we consider that they are usually outnumbered to the region of around 3:1. French-bred declarations are Poquelin, Walkon, Zaynar, Vino Griego, Hector’s Choice, Sweet My Lord, Giorgio Quercus, Domtaline, Kapga De Cerisy, Divers and Tartak. With regards to Venetia Williams, her record of two wins and five places from 13 runners can not be ignored and she runs Kapga De Cerisy and Carrickboy. Nicky Henderson’s contenders are also well worth a second look having won consecutive runnings in 2005 and 2006 in addition to back-to-back wins for The Tsarevich in 1985/86 and he lets Giorgio Quercus? take its chance. Paul Nicholls, on the other hand, has not had much luck with just two of his 22 runners hitting the frame and he runs Poquelin. Only one Irish-trained winner since 1951 is not the kind of statistic you want to be staring you at the face if you are drawn to any of any Irish entry this season which are Sweet My Lord and Casey Top. The latter finished fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (not run since) a race that many will view as being the key guide being the most prestigious handicap chase run during the season over a very similar distance and also taking place at Cheltenham but the last winner of the Plate to contest that prize was Half Free in 1984. Walkon (2nd) though Poquelin, Hunt Ball and Calgary Bay all pulled up. Salut Flo broked a few trends when successful last year. Not only did he become the first winning favourite since 1999 ending an 11-year run of double-figure priced winners but he had only run once over the best part of two years prior to making all so it was a superb training performance by the Pipe team who must now, if they weren’t already, be regarded as the most potent force for Festival handicaps having also won six other handicaps at this meeting over the last five years including this race twice and his father also struck four times in five years. The same owner and trainer are represented by Ballynagour this time and Pipe also runs Matuhi, Shoegazer and Zaynar. A big result for novices three years ago when recording a 1-2 emulating so the winner was emulating three other successful novices since 1995 and it was two novices in The Cockney Mackem and Glam Gerry that chased home Salut Flo last season finishing second and third. Novices to run this time are Theatre Guide (for the stable that won the JLT Handicap Chase on Tuesday), Shoegazer, Vino Griego (though he is a second-season chaser), Cantlow, Sweet My Lord, Domtaline and Kapga De Cerisy Other stats to note are that 18 of the last 21 winners record a top-four finish last time out, 13 of the last 14 winners had run no more than 16 times over fences and 17 of the last 21 winners had run at this meeting in the past though many ran moderate races so I wouldn’t read much into the latter stat. Short List KAPGA DE CERISY DIVERS DOMTALINE GIORGIO QUERCUS BALLYNAGOUR Conclusion With the top 13 in the weights failing in the strong handicap ratings stats (23 of the last 25 winners were rated under 142), I suggest we look at French breds, novices and in-form horses that haven’t been doing the rounds for years for the shortlist. KAPGA DE CERISY tops the short list being a Venetia Williams-trained (two wins and five places from 13 runners), French-bred novice who also happens to be in blinding form winning his last two races including an easy defeat of Fago at Sandown 20 days ago. DIVERS is a former Festival winner (four of those won on Tuesday) who has not had his ground this season but it is coming right for him now and is a French-bred who caught the eye last time out when third over hurdles and has 12 chase starts behind him so is in the prime of his career. Trained by Ferdy Murphy, we all know about how good he is at preparing a horse for Cheltenham Festival handicaps. The only negative with the novice DOMTALINE is Paul Nicholls’ record of two places from 22 runners as he otherwise fits the profile of being a lightly-raced, in-form French bred. I say ‘in form’ (he was last of three last time out) but it was a decent run not beaten far and has a big chance on his short-head second to Carlito Brigante here in a novice chase back in October. Finding a couple more means a little creativity but I include GIORGIO QUERCUS as he only fails on not finishing in the first four last time out (he finished fifth in first time blinkers that didn’t work and they are left off today). He is a French-bred in the right area of the weights trained by a yard who have won this race four times before. The worry is a couple of moderate runs at the course on his last two runs here but he goes well fresh and arrives here off a 104-day break. Given David Pipe has won two of the last three runnings and his father won four renewals in five years, it is safe to assume they target this race. BALLYNAGOUR was super impressive on his British debut and has been given 143 which is only 2lbs over the 141 threshold but he really could have been put up by more than 20lbs as I was there and, I’m not kidding, it could easily have been 35-40 lengths. On that basis 2lbs isn’t going to make a jot of difference so he has to be short list material given the stable profile. Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase - cheltenham 4:40 Being an amateur-riders’ race, jockeyship is vital and it is usually won by one of the most accomplished pilots. This is no better illustrated by the fact that the highest finish any of the ten claiming amateur jockeys could muster in last season’s renewal was seventh following on from the 2011 renewal where the highest finish any of the eight claiming jockeys was only eighth. As for the previous two runnings, four of the first five horses were also ridden by non-claiming amateurs on both occasions. Horses ridden to by claiming amateurs to therefore be wary of are Swing Bill, Saint Are, Problema Tic, Prince Of Pirates, Deal Done, Same Difference, Liberty Counsel, Court By Surprise and Sunny Ledgend. Only four of the last 33 winners were aged seven or younger so that would be a statistical negative for Super Duty, Saint Are, Problema Tic, On Trend, Vesper Bell, Same Difference and Loose Preformer. This has been a race for horses in their prime and it is eight and nine-year-olds that very much hold the best strike rate winning 15 of the last 19 renewals from less than half the total runners. David Pipe has some way to go to emulate his father’s record of three Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir winners but a 1-2 in 2011 was a nice start. The stable’s last three horses to finish first or second arrived off breaks of 267, 75 and 97 days which I believe to be significant regards the Pipe yard as most Festival handicaps are won by horses with a recent run to their name. This season he runs Swing Bill, Problema Tic and No Secrets. Nicky Henderson’s runners have been sparse of late, but he trained the 1-2 in both 2002 and 2005 and also won in 1990. He is represented this season by the J P McManus-owned Prince Of Pirates. Donald McCain is the emerging force having won two of the previous four runnings (and four of his six runners have notched up top-five positions) and he has elected to run his novice, Super Duty, here rather than head for the RSA and has booked the cracked amateur Derek O’Connor. This hasn’t been Paul Nicholls’ race at all however with just one placed horse from 14 starters and he runs Harry The Viking. Despite an excellent collective effort last season where Irish raiders finished second, fourth and fifth from their five challengers, the fact remains that yet another year passed without an Irish-trained Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir success thus we still have to stretch back 30 years to find their last winner. This time they go to war with last year’s runner-up Becauseicouldntsee, Vesper Bell, Deal Done, Romanescu, Liberty Counsel and Sunny Ledgend. Five of the last eight winners contested a handicap chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season. I’m not sure what use that is however as they were five different races but qualifiers are Swing Bill, Saint Are, Harry The Viking, Probelma Tic, Becauseicouldntsee, Galaxy Rock, Deal Done, Bahrain Storm (cross country chase) and Romanescu. Short List NO SECRETS CHARTREUX GALAXY ROCK FRISCO DEPOT ALFIE SHERRIN Conclusion This short list is more of a case of what has survived the negative trends than anything else. NO SECRETS has just sneaked in for David Pipe who has such a good record in this race in his short career and the booking of Katie Walsh catches the eye for this hat-trick chasing nine-year-old novice. CHARTREUX started favourite for a Festival handicap hurdle for Pipe three years ago but is now with Tom George and he makes the short list having survived the negative trends and the booking of Jamie Codd who won this race in 2009 suggests the yard mean business. GALAXY ROCK appeals most of those to have run at Cheltenham earlier in the season. An impressive course winner here last season, he represents last year’s winning stable and looks to have been kept back for this having not run for 117 days and connections have turned to another tip top amateur in J T McNamara. Sam Waley-Cohen is another leading amateur but there was no other jockey his father was going to put up on FRISCO DEPOT and he ran well at Warwick last time out over an inadequate trip when reportedly in need of the run. Five of his previous six races were in pattern races so he should enjoy this drop in class. Relax came close to making the short list but the final slot goes to ALFIE SHERRIN with the ground drying out. The winner of last season’s JLT, Sunnyhillboy for the same owner/trainer also ran in the JLT 12 months before he won the Kim Muir and Alan Berry won this race and has been booked. Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase - cheltenham 5:15 A surprise move from Philip Hobbs not to declare the defending title holder Balthazar King on account of the soft ground given he was second in the conditions race here in November on heavier ground. With no Balthazar King, the British challenge has been seriously weakened so this looks like an eighth win in nine years for the Irish so best concentrate on their leading players. Any Currency is the shortest priced British contender but he has not run in a cross country race before of any description and there has only been one such winner of any cross country race at Cheltenham with a similar profile in the last 27 races here. We have one French-trained runner in the shape of Sacree Tiepy but the fact he is a seven-year-old is a negative as only one of the 75 horses aged under to ever run over this course has won. Enda Bolger has trained the winner or runner-up in this race for 7 of the 8 running so no surprise his Arabella Boy currently heads the market especially having won the P.P. Hogan last time (Uncle Junior behind but 3m is too short for him) as three winners of that race then doubled up here. He unseated his rider in the handicap here in December won by Outlaw Pete which has been the best guide to this race featuring 6 of the 8 winners (reads even better when we consider it was abandoned last year). The winner won very easily from Bostons Angel but his task was aided by the exit of Arabella Boy and Uncle Junior at the same fence. Arabella Boy and Outlaw Pete also contested the La Touche Cup which is Ireland’s other big guide to this race where they both fell when in contention. Uncle Junior won the conditions event here in November where he had Outlaw Pete back in third but Outlaw Pete now meets on him on 17lbs better terms including Josh Halley’s allowance which he wasn’t allowed to claim back in November where it looked like both winner and jockey were enjoying having a first look at the course with a view to the rest of the season. Short List Arabella Boy Outlaw Pete Uncle Junior Conclusion With the Irish dominant, previous form over these fences crucial and the first three in the betting having won 14 of the last 16 cross country races at Cheltenham, I make no apologies whatsoever in short listing the three at the head of the market that fit the profile and I wouldn’t put anyone off perming them in forecasts and tri-casts as fancied horses also usually fill the frame in these races. ARABELLA BOY would probably be just about be the trends pick having won the P.P. Hogan and representing Enda Bolger and having contested the handicap here in December and the La Touche Cup but it does niggle me a little his trainer thinks he is a better horse at Punchestown than Cheltenham. OUTLAW PETE used to be trained by Bolger where he won a cross country race at the Punchestown Festival and was leading and going well in last year’s La Touche Cup until falling five out. Now trained by John Halley, he has certainly not gone backwards since running an eye-catching third to UNCLE JUNIOR here in November and he is now 17lbs better off here and followed up by bolting up by seven lengths in the best guide to this race in December. Both Outlaw Peter and Uncle Junior will love the soft ground.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread channel 4 now a documentry about jump jockeys just started

[Jumps Racing Wednesday 13th March]

Re: Jumps Racing Wednesday 13th March John Oaksey National Hunt Chase cheltenham 1:30 Not a strong trends race to kick off the day. I feel it is best to concentrate on the patterns since the race conditions changed notably in 2002. They have been tinkered with twice more since then but the main alterations came 11 years ago. Since then no winner has contested less than three chase starts which puts me off Buddy Bolero, Heathyard’s Flyer and Scampi Boy. The strongest negative pattern over a longer period of time is that five and six-year-olds are a combined 1-64 since 1989 so on that basis I would struggle to ally myself to Emperor’s Choice. On the positive trends, the fact that the last two winners contested a Grade 1 tells us what a good race this has become and Back In Focus stands out in this respect having won the same Grade 1 at Leopardstown over 3m at Christmas in which Chicago Grey was unplaced in two years ago before he won this prize. Tofino Bay also contested that race finishing fourth. Four of the last six winners had run at Cheltenham earlier in the season. The only on this score this season is Highland Lodge who won at the December Meeting. Short List Back In Focus Tofino Bay Godsmejudge Highland Lodge Conclusion Grade 1 form has come to the fore in the last two years so the Grade 1 winner BACK IN FOCUS is a worthy favourite and has to have a big chance of giving Willie Mullins his first winner in this race as trainer. The ground has also come in his favour and stamina is very much his strong suit. He had TOFINO BAY back in fourth in that Grade 1 but Dessie Hughes’ novice is experienced being a ten-year-old and has won the Troytown Handicap Chase and won a Grade 2 novice chase either side of those runs. I do like some handicap form for this race and then dropping back to taking on fellow novices so GODSMEJUDGE also appeals in that respect having only just been nailed on the line in the £50K Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick takingon experienced handicappers and he has won since and represents the Alan King yard that won this race in 2008. Being the only horse to run in a novice chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season then HIGHLAND LODGE makes the short list and he will like the ground as well as it was heavy when he beat Our Father by 22 lengths on that occasion. Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle cheltenham 2:05 Very much a race for the leading fancies, 25 of the 27 winners started in the first five in the betting so we should really be concentrating on Pont Alexandre, The New One, Taquin Du Seuil, Rule The World and Chatterbox. Unfortunately there are no fancies aged over six as there has been no winner since 1974 but it is very easy to strike off horses that failed to finish first or second last tine out as only one of the last 29 winners won with that profile so I would have to be against Minsk and Ubak. Taquin Du Seuil won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle in style but all 13 winners of that prize to run here have been beaten. On that basis he is no trends horse but it should be noted that six of those 13 winners did finish second or third here. Most Challow Hurdle are run on testing ground and the winner tends to get found out on better ground at the Festival but we should have Soft ground tomorrow so Taquin Du Seuil is more likely to have his conditions than most Challow winners so it wouldn’t surprise me if that stat is overturned this particular year. That said, he is an ex-Flat horse and this race normally goes the way of jumps-bred contenders (12 of the last 14) though ex-bumper horses would comfortably outnumber their ex-Flat rivals. Minsk would also come from the Flat. Thirteen of the last 15 winners had been contesting pattern races so Chatterbox would be an unusual winner in this respect as would Ubak. The Irish have fared well (this is their second best race at the Festival since the early 1970s) winning four of the seven runnings, two of which trained by Willie Mullins who is responsible for the Irish banker of the meeting, Pont Alexandre. Rule The World and Minsk also travel over and the former is interesting as his trainer has had a winner (First Lieutenant) and second (Venalmar) in this race in recent years and Rule The World is a half-brother to Venalmar who won the Slaney Hurdle as did Rule The World. Nigel Twiston-Davies, however, has also won this twice with Gaelstrom and Fundamentalist and he rates The New One in a different class to that pair over hurdles. Five of the last 14 winners recorded a top-six finish in a Grade 1 bumper. The New One qualifies on that count having finished second in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper before he went on to beat My Tent or Yours into second in the Grade 2 Aintree Bumper at the Grand National Meeting. Short List Pont Alexandre Rule The World The New One Conclusion Of the top five in the betting (they usually dominate this race), Taquin Du Seuil has the Challow Hurdle winner stat to overcome and Chatterbox has not run in a pattern race so that leaves the other three as short list material. PONT ALEXANDRE will be heavily backed to give Willie Mullins a third win in this race in five years and the Navan Hurdle he won in December has been a good guide of late featuring two recent winners, and that would have been three had Oscars Well jumped the final flight okay in the Neptune two years ago. A good race in general for the Irish so RULE THE WORLD also makes appeal, especially hailing from a yard with a winner and close second in this race recently and he is a half-brother to the latter. THE NEW ONE has the bumper stat in his favour (finished in the top six in a Grade 1 bumper) and his yard also know what is required having trained two Neptune winners. The only real negative are doubts about the bug in the stable that have ruled out some of their runners this week. RSA Chase cheltenham 2:40 No Dynaste means we can’t take on the Feltham winner at a short price yet again this season but maybe we can take on the possible favourite in Boston Bob who, although having stats in his favour, he does only have two chase starts to his name and the last 13 RSA winners have had at least three and some very good horses have tried and failed. He is trained by Willie Mullins though who has three winners and two seconds in this race (and three others were going well when exiting late on) and he won the Dr P J Moriarty Chase (where I am reliably informed he didn’t look particularly fit so can be expected to improve plenty and for the step up to 3m), a race in which three of the last four RSA runners ran in so he has big positives too so it’s a tricky one. Mullins also runs Terminal who is not to be overlooked. Ruby Walsh prefers Unioniste though which has to be negative to his chances Other horses that have not run at least twice over fences are Goulanes (just one start over fences), Another strong negative stat is that all but one of the last 25 winners finished first or second last time out which is against Real Milan (pulled up), Lord Windermere (3rd) and Lyreen Legend (4th). That said, the last named pair were right on the heels of the first two in the Dr P J Moriarty Chase and ran very well in the race’s best guide French-breds have only won twice in the last 20 years which is a sticking point against the five-year-old Unioniste. The last five-year-old winner was also trained by Paul Nicholls (Star De Mohaison) and Unioniste won the same novice chase at Aintree as him back in November. He has also contested two of the same novice chases the same yard’s Denman won in his RSA-winning season. Unlike Star De Mohaison though, Unioniste receives just 2lbs unlike back in 2006 when five-years-old received 10lbs. Terminal, Houblon Des Obeaux and Goulanes will also be attempting to improve the record of French-bred. Six-year-olds have struggled in this stamina test as only two have won since 1978 which is against Lyreen Legend, Terminal, Hadrian’s Approach and Houblon Des Obeaux but mark seven-year-olds up such as Lord Windermere, Vintage Star and Theatrical Star as they have won the last six runnings on the spin. Only three winners in the last 20 years spent more than one season over hurdles which is against Houblon Des Obeaux only. The strongest trend of late is that the last ten winners had placed at worst in a Grade 1 or 2 race so this is not a contest for Real Milan, Theatrical Star or Unioniste. Short List VINTAGE STAR (LORD WINDERMERE) (HADRIAN’S APPROACH) Conclusion Only one horses survived the negative trends and they are big-priced outsiders so this could be interesting! That horse is VINTAGE STAR who has finished in the first two in all four chase starts but he falls short on pure form but strange things can happen in the RSA Chase and he handles soft ground well so who knows, he could sneak a place at massive odds if you fancy risking a few quid each-way. For the rest of the shortlist, it’s a case of going with what is unlucky not to qualify on just one count. That would be LORD WINDERMERE who only fails for not finishing first or second last time out but he was only beaten less than a length on that occasion by Boston Bob in the best trial and he is a seven-year-old like the last six winners. HADRIAN’S APPROACH gets the final berth. He only fails on age being a six-year-old but he was second in the Feltham (a race in which five horses to finish second, third or fourth went on to win here since 1980) including both of Nicky Henderson’s RSA Chase winners. Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase cheltenham 3:20 Think you might be able to guess who tops the trends-based shortlist here? It could be a case of just watch and admire. Only one of the last 11 winners had not already a Grade 1 races. Ironically that was the horse that put up the highest rating in Master Minded. I suspect the Sprinter Sacre want to usurp that rating and can see them trying by win by as far as possible. And given his running style of letting him kick on when his jumping takes him to the front earlier than most Champion Chase, he may well put up a monster figure here. Non Grade 1 winners in the line up are Mail De Bierve, Sanctuaire and Wishfull Thinking who have all won Grade 2 races at best. So, it’s not actually a bad race; seven runners of which four have won Grade 1s and three have won Grade 2s as it looked like cutting up to lap of honour at one point. The 2011 champion, Sizing Europe, would do well to win as an eleven-year-old in a normal year given that there has been only one winner older than ten since 1977 let alone a year when there is a horse like Sprinter Sacre in opposition. That said, that other eleven-year-old had a similar profile being Moscow Flyer who was also an Irish-trained former Arkle winner and former Champion Chase winner attempting to regain his crown after losing the previous season. For me, he has looked more comfortable travelling at 2m4f pace since beaten in this race last season though it should not be overlooked he is unbeaten in the last year and the Irish have won half of the runnings in the last decade. The last ten winners had run in the calendar year which is against Tataniano. Of course he is also the rank outsider and this is no race to chance a longshot with only one of the last 31 winners starting bigger than 11/1 so this should be a match between Sprinter Sacre and Sizing Europe as it is around 16/1 bar the two. The big two have, of course, won at the Festival before like 18 of the last 28 winners which is something four of their rivals have yet to achieve. Sanctuaire won the Fred Winter when lobbed in off a handicap mark of just 127. Somersby has twice been placed (in the Supreme and Arkle) and Wishfull Thinking was second in the Jewson Short List Sprinter Sacre Conclusion Apologies that I can’t find an alternative at very short odds to SPRINTER SACRE but he is the only horse that doesn’t fail any of the negative trends and, to top it off, he won the best guide in the Tingle Creek (8 of the last 12 Champion Chase winners ran in that race) and won the Arkle like six winners since 1993 and all 13 to run the next season have been placed which is some going as more than otherwise would not have started favourite. Sizing Europe is the obvious horse to finish second on his overall form and Cheltenham record though I would temper that with the fact they will be all out trying to get Sprinter Sacre beaten whereas others in the race will be mindful of that and ridden to pick up the pieces and hopefully sneak into second as a result. Somersby is often the bridesmaid so appeals in this respect and he has twice placed at the meeting before, handles soft ground, stays further and his connections have said he will be ridden for second so maybe he is of interest in a market without the favourite. I expect Wishfull Thinking to be ridden the same way as he has one burst according to Richard Johnson after he finished late to win the Game Spirit Chase but he is such an in-and-out horse he is hard to predict. It will be interesting to see what happens up front, whether Sanctuaire will revert to front running tactics and, if so, will he and the supplemented Mail De Bierve suffer in a battle for early supremacy. Somersby or Wishfull Thinking without Sprinter Sacre makes some appeal if you, like most, don’t fancy the very short price about what looks an outstanding racehorse. Coral Cup cheltenham 4:00 All 19 runnings since this handicap was first run were rated no higher than 147 so that is a big statistical negative for the top five in the weights Any Given Day, Sadler’s Risk, Crack Away Jack, Fiveforthree and Medinas to overcome. Eleven of the last 12 winners carried no more than 11st 2lbs so that would statistically also count against Black Thunder, Bondage, Cash And Go and Meister Eckhart. The other notable negative pattern concerns age as horses aged 10+ are 0-23 since 1999 so that is a second stat against Fiveforthree. The strongest recent positive pattern is that second-season hurdlers have won 6 of the last 8 runnings which brings in Sadler’s Risk, Medinas, Black Thunder, Bondage, Cash And Go, Meister Eckhart, Un Beau Matin, Loose Chips, Owega Star, Hollow Tree, Barbatos, Tour D’Argent, Big Easy, Urbain De Sivola and Ericht. I also like the angle that as many as 10 of the last 12 winners had not won any more than one handicap hurdle. Clearly the less handicap wins, the lesser chance the Handicapper can get a grip on their true ability. That, or the horse just has trouble winning so therefore why would it be of interest anyway? That said 14 of the last 19 winners had won earlier in the season which is against the top four in the weights whi are already up against it on ratings stats as well as Black Thunder, Cash And Go, Meister Eckhart, Hollow Tree, Barbatos, Tour D’Argent, Big Easy, Timesawaistin, Wyse Hill Teabags and Orsippus. I do like an freshness angle and only three horses in the last four years to finish in the first four had run more than three times earlier in the season. Finally, respect the Irish. Seven wins in 19 years is some going for a handicap where they are outnumbered and their contenders this year are Fiveforthree, Bondage, Rattan, Un Beau Matin, Owega Star and Abbey Lane. J P McManus owns the novice, Pendra, and he has owned two winners and a second. Short List Un Beau Matin Bondage Owega Star Urbain De Sivola Ericht Conclusion Second-season hurdlers with less than one handicap hurdle win appeal as do the Irish and three fit the bill headed by UN BEAU MATIN for the Gordon Elliott yard that won this race two years ago in the same ownership. He has been running in Grade 2 races on his last two starts and running in a big field handicap can bring the best out in him. I wouldn’t knock his stable mate either BONDAGE who is also a second season hurdler plus also a course and distance winner and I like the lack of a run (115 days) as a number of winners have won this race off a longish absence to protect their handicap mark. OWEGA STAR is a third Irish-trained second-season hurdler that could go under the radar a little not being from a top yard. He was second to Un Beau Matin earlier in the season before also going down the pattern-race route and is interesting now dropped back to handicaps. URBAIN DE SIVOLA has only had one run in Britain since he was midfield in last season’s Triumph Hurdle as Nick Williams has been campaigning him in France and, going with the freshness angle, he has not run since the Ladbroke Hurdle and, from a personal perspective, I think he is interesting moving up to 2m5f. He has run over 2m4f once but that was in a Grade 1 in France two years ago. ERICHT completes the short list. Another second season hurdler (though he is officially a novice), Nicky Henderson’s charge was favourite for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper two years ago and is in grand form now winning his last two starts. Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle cheltenham 4:40 The stat I like most is that seven of the eight winners were beaten on their first two starts over hurdles which always helps with a horse’s handicap mark. And especially when you then combine that with having run the minimum of three times to qualify (like 6 of the 8 winners) so then winning on their final start (like 5 of the 8 winners) becomes critical. Ideally our selection will also have had a recent prep run as 7 of the last 8 winners ran in the last 25 days but it would be churlish to throw out a horse purely on that stat providing that last run wasn’t too far over that 3½ weeks. French-breds/imports have won 5 of the 8 runnings. Some punters believe they get in too easily off their French marks though the official Handicapper would dispute that but you can’t ignore their record. Regards the Irish challenge, it is interesting to note both of their winners were maidens over hurdles and their challenge this year comprises of Blood Cotil, Fatcatinthehat and Kalmann representing Willie Mullins plus South South West, Flazen Flare, Habesh and Ibsen so a decent turnout. Of those, Ibsen is a maiden. The top rated horse on the Flat has a remarkable record winning three times and also supplying a runner-up. Short List SAPHIR DE RHEU HABESH MEGALYPOS IBSEN FATCATINTHEHAT Conclusion In short, I want to be looking at horses with three hurdle runs to their name that ideally were beaten on their first two hurdles starts but won last time out so SAPHIR DE RHEU tops the list as one of two qualifiers on all three scores. In fact he has an almost identical profile to Sanctuaire who bolted up in this race who also was beaten on his first two hurdles starts for the same yard having also been a French import and then also won last time out at the same course (Taunton). HABESH also fits the profile (three runs, beaten on the first two, winner of the last) at a much bigger price and is interesting as he hasn’t run over hurdles since September (to protect his mark?) but has had a couple of runs on the Flat. MEGALYPOS represents last season’s winning yard and is a French import like five of the eight winners so he has to come into the equation and Henderson was keen to protect his mark after a promising only run in this country when he would have been second in a Grade 1 but for being hampered. He has since had a wind operation so can be expected to build on that run. Both Irish-trained winners were maidens so IBSEN, who has finished second on all three starts, catches the eye more than their other contenders and squeezes in off bottom weight of the 24 runners like Tuesday’s JLT winner. He meets Fatcatinthehat and Flaxen Flare (was second to both) on more favourable terms here and makes each-way appeal. As the highest rated horse on the Flat has such a good record (three wins and a second in eight runnings) then FATCATINTHEHAT has to also make the short list having been rated as high as 92 on the level. Weatherbys Champion Bumper cheltenham 5:15 Another race with plenty of stats. The Irish lead the British 15-5 from less than 50% of the runners and with the best British hope, Empiracle, now a Non Runner, the Irish look mighty strong again so I will be principally concentrating on their nine-strong challenge. Last-time-out winners have won 18 of the last 20 runnings so I can’t support Caledonia, Fasvcino Rustico, I’m Fraam Govan, Kayf Moss, Posiden Sea, Pure Science, The Clock Leary or The Liquidator. Eleven of those were unbeaten if you want to narrow it down though you would be showing a level-stakes loss if you backed them all down the years as they can be over-bet. Five of the last 12 winners have not run this year. That is interesting as they would be readily outnumbered so that’s a tick for the likes of Drumlee, Fascino Rustico, Regal Encore and Union Dues. I am against once-raced horses (unless trained by Willie Mullins) as only Cue Card has won for them outside of the Mullins winners. As for Mullins, he is the main man of course having won this seven times and he runs three this time in Union Dues, Briar Hill and Sizing Tennessee. Five of his seven winners were once-raced but four of his winners were when he brought over just one runner. I prefer my bet to have won in a decent sized field as 16 of the 20 winners had won a bumper comprising at least 14 runners Short List UNION DUES GOLANTILLA LE VENT D’ANTAN DRUMLEE BLACKMAIL Conclusion An Irish-trained last-time-out winner preferably in the first six in the betting (14 of the 20 winners could be found in the top six in the betting of which six started second-favourite) that had ideally won a race comprising 14+ runners is what we want. UNION DUES fits the bill and, furthermore, he is trained by Willie Mullins gunning for his eighth win in the race so he is obvious short list material. GOLANTILLA also qualifies on all three counts and was bought for a king’s ransom after beating 13 rivals at Cork last time out. The third Irish horse to meet all three criteria is LE VENT D’ANTAN who also won a 14-runner bumper last time out and will be in the first half dozen in the betting and four-year-olds fare a lot better in this race now than they used to. DRUMLEE only won an 11-runner bumper and won’t be in the top six in the betting but he is an Irish-trained last-time-out winner and horses given a good break have a fine record here so his absence of 103 days can be viewed as a positive. BLACKMAIL completes the short list being an Irish-trained last-time-out winner who is likely to be in the first six in the betting. He hasn’t won a 14+ runner bumper but was super impressive last time out and before that was second in the same Leopardstown bumper as Champagne Fever last year (who went on to win this race) and has featured two other winners of this Grade 1 prize.

[cheltenham chat thread 2013]

Re: cheltenham chat thread 2013 Racing ON but delayed by 35mins and Cross Country now last race at 5.45

[cheltenham chat thread 2013]

Re: cheltenham chat thread 2013 14hrs 31minutes to the greatest show on turf good luck for 2moro everyone

[Jump Racing Tuesday 12th]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 12th 1.30PM – WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE This is one of the most eagerly anticipated races of the year and this year we have a runner with a rating that is already 11 pounds higher than that achieved by the winner last year, so we are looking at a top class renewal of the event. There are some significant statistics to consider. Firstly, 14 of the last 16 winners won last time out, secondly 9 of the last 11 winners had never finished out of the first 3 when completing over hurdles and thirdly five and six year olds have won all bar 2 of the renewals this century. It is also important to note that 9 of the last 11 winners had run in the last 40 days as you do not want your horse to run too fresh in a race like this. Another statistic that may prove valuable is that the last five British winners of this race had raced at least four times over hurdles. MY TENT OR YOURS sets the standard and could prove hard to beat. He looked good on his debut over hurdles, comfortably defeating Taquin du Seuil, who went on to easily win the Grade one Challow Hurdle. He then ran well on his next two starts, but it was his easy win in the Betfair hurdle off a mark of 149 that makes him a serious contender in this. That was a special performance and a repeat of that sort of form will make him very hard to beat. A big danger is DODGING BULLETS who is rated 156 over hurdles. He was classy on the flat and ran very well in the Triumph Hurdle last year on only his second ever start over hurdles. He loves Cheltenham, having won twice at the course, including when giving weight to River Maigue and put up a good performance last time out, finishing third to Darlan at level weights at Kempton. He is not a pick for followers of the stats, but he is a very good horse who will be suited by the pace of this race. CHAMPAGNE FEVER should not be under-estimated. He was a good winner of the bumper last year and has a great attitude. He was a good winner of a Grade One last time out and gave weight to Jezki when second at Fairyhouse. The ground will be ideal for him and Ruby Walsh rides, so a big run is expected. • CHAMPAGNE FEVER • MY TENT OR YOURS • DODGING BULLETS 2.05PM – RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY There are several key statistics to take into account for this race. Firstly only one winner since the 1980s had ever finished outside the first two on a completed start over fences, secondly 10 of the last 11 winners had run at least three times over fences, thirdly 9 of the last 11 winners had been placed in a Grade 1 or 2 race and finally, 7 of the last 11 winners had finished in the first two at Cheltenham before. Two horses dominate the betting in this and it is hard to see the winner not being one of them. SIMONSIG is held in the highest regard at Seven Barrows and is up there with Sprinter Sacre, so although Overturn is greatly respected, it is Simonsig for me. He is a winning pointer and has looked electric so far over fences, winning both starts very easily. His defeat of the useful Hinterland reads very well and he has so far jumped well. He has plenty of pace so should be able to sit just behind Overturn, before kicking for home and it is battle that should excite all jumps fans. • SIMONSIG 2.40PM – JLT SPECIALITY HANDICAP CHASE Weight is important in this race as the last 11 winners carried 11-2 or less. Also the younger generation does well as we have not had a winner aged older than 10 this century. It is also common for the winner to enter the race in good form, as 10 of the 12 winners this century had finished in the first three last time out and as a result, 9 of them started at 8/1 or less. Also 10 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 11 times over fences. MERRY KING has progressed well over fences and the piece of form that stands out is his second behind Rolling Aces who is now rated 23 pounds higher and although Merry King has gone up 11 pounds he could still be on a fair mark. The soft ground will hold no fears to him and he looks very progressive. LOCH BA is an interesting runner. He has improved a lot this season and was a very easy winner last time out. He has gone up in the handicap again, but looks capable of running well and the ground will hold no fears to him. • MERRY KING • LOCH BA 3.20PM – STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE It is important to have won last time out coming into this race as 8 of the last 11 winners had done so and that trend goes back much further. It is also important to have run in the same calendar year as 17 of the last 18 winners had done so. On a negative note, five year olds rarely win this race, but since the introduction of the Fred Winter Hurdle, their record has improved and several have made the frame. HURRICANE FLY is an exceptional hurdler, having won 16 of his 19 starts and is clearly the one to beat. This season he is unbeaten in three starts, all in Grade One races and has looked not far off his best. He has proven ability at Cheltenham, having won the 2011 Champion Hurdle and sets a very high standard. ROCK ON RUBY looks the main danger. He has not been given enough credit for his win last season, where he had Hurricane Fly five and a half lengths back in third. He travelled strongly that day and was given a good ride, but I feel he may have improved this season and should not be under-estimated. First time out he travelled like the best horse against Zarkandar and Grandouet at Cheltenham until lack of race fitness cost him. Last time out he put in a much stronger performance, winning at Doncaster and it would have been a close finish if Darlan had not suffered a fatal fall. Rock On Ruby handles Cheltenham well, (placed on all five starts at the track) and comes into the race in good form, so is a serious player again this year. • ROCK ON RUBY • HURRICANE FLY 4.00PM – GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE There are several key statistics to take into account in this race. The one that jumps out is that only one winner has been trained outside of Ireland and only one winner was not aged between 9 and 12. It is also interesting to note that 7 of the 8 winners had already raced over the cross-country course at Cheltenham and that this usually goes to one of the favourites, as 7 of the 8 winners started at 13/2 or less. BOSTONS ANGEL is an interesting runner here. Cheltenham plays to his strengths and in two starts at the track, he has won the RSA Chase and finished second over this course off a mark of 145, which is what he races off again today. He looked very much at home over this cross-country track and has also run a good race in Ireland over this sort of track, so a bold run is expected. ARABELLA BOY won a key trial for this at Punchestown last month and is trained by Enda Bolger, who has a fantastic record in this race. In the Punchestown race he beat Uncle Junior by over 20 lengths at level weights, yet receives a massive 18 pounds here, so assuming he jumps ok, he could prove hard to beat. • BOSTONS ANGEL • ARABELLA BOY 4.40PM – **** MARES’ HURDLE QUEVEGA is an outstanding mare and bids to make it five in a row in this race. Amazingly it is almost four years since she was last beaten, but she has only had six runs. She was impressive in this last year and although this is her first run of the season, that was the case last year and it did not stop her. It is also easy to forget that in France she was beaten just two lengths by Hurricane Fly in receipt of just four pounds – that shows just how good she is. When searching for who will finish second, I am keen on UNE ARTISTE. She stayed on strongly to win the Fred Winter last season and looks to have improved again this year. She has now won 6 of her 8 starts over hurdles and last time out gave weight and a beating to Kentford Grey Lady and Alasi at Sandown. That was a good run and she could give the favourite most to think about. • QUEVEGA • UNE ARTISTE (Betting without the favourite) 5.15PM – REWARDS4RACING NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE Winners of this race have shown a consistent level of form over fences, with all 8 finishing in the first 2 on their most recent run. In fact in the history of this race the winners had run 37 times over fences going into the race and had finished out of the first three on a completed start just four times. From a handicapping point of view it could also be significant that every winner was beaten first time over fences and only one carried more than 11-4. A horse that I am very keen on is CARLITO BRIGANTE. A winner over hurdles at this meeting off a rating of 140, he has taken well to fences, winning twice and last time out he finished a good fourth to Dynaste, Fingal Bay and Unioniste, despite giving them all weight. A rating of 137 for this looks lenient and he should run a big race. VULCANITE was travelling strongly turning for home last year in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and has taken well to fences. After impressing on his seasonal debut over hurdles, he made a successful start over fences, winning at Hereford and run well on his next two starts on ground softer than ideal. He is rated 145 over hurdles, but just 137 over fences and given that he jumps well, he could be well treated. Another well handicapped horse is THE DRUID’S NEPHEW who won well last time at Wincanton, easily beating Grandioso who went on to win a Grade Two Novice Chase on his last run. On his chase debut he split the useful pair of Hadrian’s Approach and Rolling Aces and the form of that race has been boosted again and again, so a mark of just 135 could prove very lenient. • CARLITO BRIGANTE • VULCANITE • THE DRUID’S NEPHEW

[PL Cheltenham Tipster Comp ~ Day One Selections]

Re: PL Cheltenham Tipster Comp ~ Day One Selections 1-30 supreme - puffin billy -14/1 2-40 jlt hcp chase -cantlow -8/1 4-40 **** mares hurdle -une artiste -11/2 5-15 rewards for racing hcp -colour squdron -7/1 0.50 points e/way lucky 15 good luck all

[Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle]

Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle cant see jezki placing never mind winning and the reason i say that is because his form figures with more than 12 rivals read 85 compaired with 111111 in fields of more than 12 or less,and 5 of those wins were in single-figure fields he could do no better than eighth in the champion bumper on good ground last and all of his best form as come on softer the festival opener has featured 15 runners or more every year this century and this fast run affair ,usually on quicker ground is the polar opposite to the small field events that jezki has been winning this season but good luck with your bets BB

[cheltenham preview nights 2013]

Re: cheltenham preview nights 2013 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at SANDOWN PARK RACECOURSE AP McCoy (AP), Nicky Henderson (NH), Paul Nicholls (PN), Big Buck’s’ owner Andy Stewart (AS) (though he said very little) and Paddy Power (PP) were answering questions from Nick Luck. William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle AP: It’s going to soft but it was testing ground when My Tent Or Yours won at Newbury and he coped okay so hopefully he will again. He’s rated 162. I can never remember a novice that high going into this race. I don’t see any negatives. Champagne Fever will come into this a lot more now it’s soft. NH: The pace and hill are possible problems for My Tent Or Yours as they didn’t go a real gallop at Newbury and he is really speedy and has been running on flat tracks. River Maigue got beat in a sprint last time and he’s better than I’ve had him all season. I’ve just been told Puffin Billy is switching to this race now it is soft ground and I like him a lot. This is a hell of a race. PN: Dodging Bullets wants an end-to-end gallop and hasn’t had it yet. He’ll get that gallop with Champagne Fever in the field. Ruby will probably ride Champagne Fever because the ground will be soft. We worked Dodging Bullets this morning and we’re very happy with him. AS: I can’t see past My Tent Or Yours. PP: I’d be against Mt Tent Or Yours as favourites have a terrible record in the race. We’ve got Cousin Vinny, Dunguib and Cue Card beaten with our big offers in this race recently as favourite. It was also a slow pace at Newbury. Melodic Rendezvous handles soft ground well and he is the each-way value. Racing Post Arkle Trophy AP: I thought it was a two-horse race last week but now it’s going to be soft I have it down to one as Simonsig will handle it and Overturn would want it faster. Simonsig will now be very hard to beat. NH: Getting fizzed up over is 2m is a slight worry for Simonsig which is why we went 2m4f first time out so we could drop him in and go to sleep. We don’t mind soft ground but Donald has said Overturn is ground dependent and prefers it Good. That said, there is definitely no complacency in our camp. PN: This will come down to who jumps the best. AS: I fancy Overturn to win. PP: It looks a match on paper but Simonsig is just going to win, it’s soft now and it’s only going to get softer between now and the Arkle which will play into his hands. Stan James Champion Hurdle AP: It’s softer ground than I would like for Binocular. His jumping is his main asset and faster ground means he jumps faster. Me and Ruby were too far back in last year’s race. The softer ground will suit Hurricane Fly more than the other main hopes. Zarkandar is the main danger. NH: If anyone got the 40/1 that Grandouet drifted out earlier then well done them as there is nothing wrong with him. He worked well today with River Maigue and Une Artiste over9f and everything went tickite boo. His second place giving weight to Zarkandar is on paper the best piece of form in the race this season. Binocular’s run inIreland was alright as he needed it and he’s fit and well but I could do with better ground for with him. (when pressed for a third time which he preferred he reluctantly gave Binocular). PN: Ruby could never get off Hurricane Fly of course but I know it wasn’t an easy decision for him. Zarkandar has won 7 of his 9 races, has won the Triumph and is unbeaten this season and the testing ground will be ideal. He was only half-right in last year’s race. I assume the blinkers on Rock On Ruby are to sharpen up his jumping as he is a genuine horse. There is no Overturn to set the race up for him this year, he’s got it all to do I think. AS: Binocular shouldn’t be four times the price of Hurricane Fly. PP: We have a mad money back if Hurricane Fly wins offer as our special this year. It’s a great bet as whatever you fancy Hurricane Fly has to be the danger. But I think he’ll win. Ruby told me there was no question that he would ride him over Zarkandar even if he hadn’t already won a Champion Hurdle on him. The ground is also coming in his favour. RSA Chase AP: Now the ground is soft I think Dynaste will run in the Jewson as he’s got a lot of speed and this could be a slog. This will be won by an out and out stayer, maybe something like Goulanes. NH: Hadrian’s Approach made three mistakes in the straight at Newbury and was only beaten a short head by Unioniste. PN: Ruby will ride Unioniste and not Boston Bob and he is very keen on him. He is an out and out stayer that jumpsCheltenham well and has improved enormously since his last win when he also idled and the soft ground will help him too. On soft ground I think Dynaste will run in the Jewson. PP: Ruby on Unioniste has to be a massive negative for Boston Bob. I can’t believe Dynaste isn’t running, he’s a stone clear of these unlike his main rival in the Jewson. It’s bonkers. Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase It was generally accepted that Sprinter Sacre would bolt up so the panel skipped talking about him. AP: Now it’s soft I wouldn’t be surprised if Cue Card switched back to this race. I also see Sizing Europe running here now the ground is soft. NH: I know it’s incredible to think the Champion Chaser might not run at the Festival but Barry is convinced his two runs this season were down to heavy ground so Finian’s Rainbow may pass the meeting if it is very soft. AS: Tataniano will represent me here and he could pick up some prize money as it goes down a long way. PN: We’re all playing for second place and we’ll be trying our damndest with Sanctuaire to finish second. Ryanair Chase AP:Albertas Run has bloomed since that racecourse gallop (when he was unimpressive) but he needs good ground. First Lieutenant has the best form and the owner will make the decision but I’d run here as better win this than finish third or fourth in the Gold Cup. NH: This all depends on where First Lieutenant, Sizing Europe and Cue Card run. Riverside Theatre has been suffering from ulcers but they have gone now and he is in great form. He’s best fresh and has not run since the King George. If Mouse wants to run him in the Gold Cup but he ends up here (on his owner’s request) he’ll probably win as that tells me he has him very well in himself. PN: We run Ghizao who could finish third or fourth but I can’t see him as a winner. I would definitely run First Lieutenant here. I think he will run here and I think he will win. PP: Russell says First Lieutenant won’t stay the Gold Cup trip. I think he has a good chance of running here as the owner must be keen to win his own race regardless of what his trainer and jockey say. Cue Card is the lay of the meeting. He needs to dominate small fields. First Lieutenant all the way. Ladbrokes World Hurdle AP: I would give Get Me Out Of Here a good each-way chance on decent ground but he has run two deplorable races on soft this season. Reve De Sivola will like the ground which is coming more in his favour than Oscar Whisky. Solwhit will also like the ground and is classy. NH: Oscar Whisky’s optimum trip is 2m4f, there is no doubt about that. I don’t think he was right in last year’s race as he wouldn’t have won at 2m4f. I was really looking forward to last year’s race but I am not particularly looking forward to it this year. He acts on soft and can be more aggressively ridden than in the Cleeve. We’re switching Oscara Dara from the Coral Cup to this race. PN: Wonderful Charm will run here and Ruby will ride as he says Quevega won’t run. He would have had plenty of weight in the Coral Cup on soft ground so we are taking a chance here instead. I don’t know if he will stay but the owner is up for the challenge and he is doing everything right at home. He’ll run a big race but whether he will stay, I don’t know. Celestial Halo could also run well if he stays. He has run a couple of big races at the Festival before and ran well last time having been injured beforehand. AS: Celestial Halo will run and he could be worth an each-way punt at 50/1. PP: Bog Warrior could be anything on soft ground. JCB Triumph Hurdle AP: Our Conor was very impressive last time. He has won over7f so has plenty of speed. The top three in the market do look head and shoulders better than the rest. I will probably ride Stockton’s Wing. If I had to pick one I would go for Far West who impressed me at Ascot. NH: I do like Rolling Star. We’ve only run him once since he came fromFrance but it was very professional and clean. He is very willing and everything has gone right. Vasco Du Ronceray runs. Barry was a bit disappointed with him last time. I think it’s between the top three in the betting. PN: Far West is a proper horse and Ruby rides. He’s in fine form. Irish Saint waits for Aintree. Far West worked well with Zarkandar this morning and has more speed than Zarkandar, which is interesting. Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup AP: I think Sunnyhillboy will run here as Jonjo thought it would cut up. At 6/1 Long Run is the most reliable horse in the field and he will be there two out. I think he is a better horse this season than last. Bobs Worth does what Gold Cup horses do – race lazily and keep going. Sir Des Champs will struggle if it comes up soft. NH: The race has a wide open look to it this year. Long Run has got his King George back and now we want his Gold Cup back. I don’t think he should be twice the price of Bobs Worth. PN: The long and short of it is that Tidal Bay put the Irish in their place and Ruby says he would have four lengths if he had jumped the last. Sir Des Champs wants better ground and I can’t believe he wasn’t pretty fit for a Grade 1 race. I’m not bothered Silviniaco Conti has only run atCheltenham once as he ran well in a 2m hurdle for a horse that needs a trip. AS: I think The Giant Bolster is the forgotten horse. PP: Our worst result so far is Sir Des Champs and it will be worse on the day as the whole ofIreland will back him. I think Bobs Worth is rock solid with Silviniaco Conti as the danger. £500 Paddy Power Charity Bets AP: Taquin Du Seuil (Neptune – as My Tent Or Yours too short for a charity bet) NH: Rolling Star (Triumph) PN: Sam Winner (Pertemps) AS: Saphir De Rheu (Fred Winter) PP: Pont Alexandre (Neptune) NL: Module e/w (Jewson) Best Handicap Chance AP: I haven’t got any! Alderwood (when seriously pressed) NH: Ma Filleule if she squeezes into the Martin Pipe PN: Sam Winner AS: Saphir De Rheu PP: Alderwood NL: Sailors Warn if he runs in the County.

[Multi Bet Thread - Lucky 15's, 31's, Yankees etc...]

Re: The Saturday Lucky 15 Thread

cheers, yep £132.00 thanks to better prices 8/1, 4/5 & 11/4 at SP !!! Glad to get up above the ton mark :)

very well done bowles

[cheltenham preview nights 2013]

Re: cheltenham preview nights 2013 preview report from birmingham Racing historian and author of the Aintree Grand National book ‘Go Down To The Beaten’ was acting as MC as he has been for many years at this Birmingham venue. The panel was made up from key people within the sport including; Racing UK presenter and President of the Midlands Racing Club Lydia Heslop, Tony Calvin from Betfair, Sam Turner from the Daily Mail, Steve Mellish from Racing UK and finally Sky’s At The Races pundit Andy Gibson – all of the above expressing their views on the four days of action at Prestbury Park. CP – Chris Pitt LH – Lydia Heslop SM – Steve Mellish TC – Tony Calvin AG – Andy Gibson ST – Sam Turner Supreme Novices AG: My Tent Or Yours reminds me of Get Me Out Of Here who won the Betfair Hurdle as hid trial the year Menorah won the Supreme. However, My Tent Or Yours won at Newbury off 14lb higher than Get Me Out Of Here and should be tough to beat in this. My only concern is that he can get worked up before his races and I would wait till he gets down to the start to back him. LH: I agree with Andy, who has just summed up My Tent Or Yours. The horse is apparently fresh at home and my worry would be the festival atmosphere. I do like Melodic Rendezvous at a bigger price, as his pedigree suggests that he should be better on good ground and looks an each-way bet. SM: My doubts over My Tent Or Yours is the undulating track at Cheltenham. If he runs to his official rating of 162, then he will win this. However, I do like Un Atout from the Willie Mullins stable. TC: If My Tent Or Yours doesn’t run to his mark then there are at least five horses you could look at in this, including Dodging Bullets who is my pick after the favourite. ST: I can’t back My Tent Or Yours at that price and I think Jezki could be involved at the finish and I would go with him. Arkle ST: This looks a fantastic duel and I think there will only be eight runners perhaps. I have backed the Mouse Morris-trained Baily Green as no runner no bet at a big price, but I think that Simonsig will win. TC: I think Simonsig win here, although I was at a preview evening a few nights ago with Donald McCain and he was really bullish about Overturn. Interestingly enough Gordon Elliott said that the Mullins trained Arvika Ligeonniere is most likely not to travel across for this. SM: Simonsig is a very clever jumper and needs a strong pace. A race to watch for me. LH: Simonsig has only run twice over fences in small fields and has never got into a battle in those races. The race might not plan out as people may think, as I don’t know if the favourite will settle. ST: Its very easy for me, Overturn will lead them and Simonsig will pick him off between the third and second last. Champion Hurdle SM: I was not convinced by Hurricane Fly when he beat Peddlers Cross two years ago and I’m not surprised that he has drifted in the betting market this week. It doesn’t look good that Simonsig gave Grandouet a fair beating in their gallop last week. TC: Hurricane Fly is very easy to back at the moment. However, I do like Rock On Ruby who didn’t get the credit he deserved last year. Zarkander has got quicker in his races this year and Grandouet might be a big drifter on the day. The lack of pace might be an issue. ST: Cinders And Ashes has had a breathing operation and should run a big race without being good enough. Punters will get a better price on Hurricane Fly this year and the race looks between himself and Rock On Ruby. AG: Zarkandar will be an interesting price in running. For me Rock On Ruby is the each way bet in this, while the connections of Binocular seem positive of his chances. LH: there is no stand out horse here. I think Hurricane Fly was given too much to do last year along with Binocular. I like Cinders And Ashes if the ground turns up good, as he beat Darlan at last years festival and is an attractive price. David Nicholson Mares Hurdle TC: I have heard a few bad vibes from the Mullins camp, which might or might not be true. 4/6 at the moment is a fair price. AG: From what Tony mentioned, I think people will always talk about stories and rumours regarding leading fancies. I don’t see anything to beat her. LH: I think one day she will get beat. Last year they crawled the whole way round and that might change this year. I think Shop DJ might run well off a strong pace. Neptune LH: The news from the Twiston-Davies yard is a concern for The New One, although better ground will suit him. Pont Alexandre looks a real good horse, only concerns would be the ground if it came up good. AG: Not a great renewal in my opinion. The New One is bound to drift on the day. I would have to back Pont Alexandre. ST: Pont Alexandre will win this and Taquin Du Seuil will follow him home. This horse looks the real deal and I liked the impression that I got from the horse and Ruby was very sweet on him. TC: On form I don’t feel that Pont Alexandre is a 13/8 chance. Taquin Du Seuil looks rock solid. SM: I think the old course will suit The New One better and he is worth taking a punt on the day when he drifts in the betting. LH: Chatterbox is a really well put together horse, although he looks like he needs a step up in trip. CP: The Mouse Morris-trained Rule The World was an each way choice for Gordon Elliott at a preview night last week, so that could be interesting. RSA TC: The Dynaste vibes are for the Jewson at present and I have been backing Unioniste. SM: One concern about Dynaste would be the stiff three miles at Cheltenham. I like Unioniste, but Hadrian’s Approach is my each way bet. ST: I am keen to take on Unioniste with Boston Bob. LH: Boston Bob’s stamina will come into play here. I am a big fan of Unioniste, but am not convinced that he is a strong stayer at this stage of his career. I thing Hadrian’s Approach is an accident waiting to happen as his jumping is a big concern, but I hope I am wrong about that. Champion Chase LH: I don’t think there is another horse that can beat Sprinter Sacre. TC: Mail de Bierve is the place lay of the meeting. I cannot believe he has got supplemented for this race. SM: Sizing Europe will come second to Sprinter Sacre if he runs here. I think Finian’s Rainbow is a worry, as I don’t believe the soft ground is the sole reason for his performing badly all season. Ryanair LH: I am not so keen on this race. First Lieutenant is the right horse for this – I don’t think he will stay the Gold Cup trip. AG: I like Champion Court. I couldn’t have Menorah based on his jumping errors and I think it will be another big run from Albertas Run. ST: First Lieutenant is tailor made for this race and I would be disappointed if he didn’t win. TC: I fancy For Non Stop at around the 20/1 mark. SM: I like First Lieutenant if he turns up, as he is a really good jumper and has strong festival form. World Hurdle CP: I find it hard to get excited by this race unfortunately. SM: Oscar Whiskey is the best horse in the race and Barry is very confident that he will stay the trip. LH: Reve De Sivola if the ground comes up soft and Oscar Whiskey if it is good ground. These are the best two in the race. TC: Oscar Whiskey is top class. I can’t have Peddlers Cross in this. Interestingly enough, Alan King has reported that Smad Place is in tremendous form, so he could be an each way bet at 16/1. ST: I think Monksland will add some spark to this race and I will stick with him. Triumph Hurdle AG: Rolling Star has a good chance and I think the form from Our Conor’s Leopardstown win might not be as good as people think. He beat the Willie Mullins horse, but I don’t think he really felt he had a strong contender for this race anyway. LH: I feel that Far West might get outpaced and Our Conor did look impressive – although I wouldn’t have a very strong opinion in the race. TC: I actually think that Far West showed plenty of speed when beating Henderson’s horse the last day and 5/1 is a fair price. ST: Our Conor looked the real deal and he is a flat-bred horse, so he should like some decent ground. SM: I agree with Sam. He looks a horse that enjoys his races and looks the most likely winner to me. Albert Bartlett SM: At Fishers Cross has a great chance, but Champagne Fever is also entered here and he could be a strong stayer with bags of stamina – we don’t know. TC: I think Ballycasey has plenty to prove and I am going to side with At Fishers Cross. LH: I hate to be singing from the same hymn sheet, but At Fishers Cross for me too. My concern for Champagne Fever is that he is a keen front runner and the step up in trip might be too steep for him at this stage. AG: At Fishers Cross is a fantastic each way bet at 5/1. Gold Cup LH: I only had two anti-post bets for Cheltenham and one of them was for Sir Des Champs, who I believe is getting better with every run. I do like Bobs Worth, however his campaign has hardly been ideal and that is a worry. AG: There are question marks over Silviniaco Conti, while I suspect Long Run will be in the first three again. SM: Long Run is really consistent and rated 172 and that should be good enough. TC: I don’t see any value in Sir Des Champs. It wouldn’t surprise me if Captain Chris runs well, but I havnt got a strong opinion in the race. Handicaps SM: I like Super Duty in the Kim Muir. ST: Aupcharlie in the RSA. LH: I like Shutthefrontdoor in the Pertemps. Charity Bets AG: Court Minstrel in the County Hurdle. LH: First Lieutenant in the Ryanair. SM: Edmund Kean in the Martin Pipe. ST: Our Conor in the Triumph Hurdle.

[cheltenham preview nights 2013]

Re: cheltenham preview nights 2013 CHELTENHAM PREVIEW EVENING at KNARESBOROUGH, CRICKET CLUB, YORKSHIRE The sixth renewal of this event was put together by the M.C. for the evening James Bridson with a panel comprising Channel 4 Racing’s Jim McGrath (JM), Nick Robson (NR) lead tipster for Racing Plus, Paul Jones (PJ) author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide and Michael Shinners (MS) representing Skybet, sponsors of the evening. Supreme Novices’ Hurdle JM: Timeform have My Tent Or Yours 16lbs higher than an average Supreme winner. With a clear round he should win and he should be a shorter price than than the odds say his chance is. NR: In my job I have to look to take on short prices like My Tent Or Yours but, regardless, I am keen to take him on anyway. When something looks too good to be true, it generally is. I don’t like Jezki at all and feel Un Atout is more of a long term project. Dodging Bullets will run well but I will be disappointed if he wins. I like Pique Sous at a price who travelled best in last year’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper when third and 12/1 each-way without the favourite makes appeal. PJ: Obviously no surprise if the favourite bolts up but although I would prefer to have seen Dodging Bullets have a prep run I feel he has to run well on a combination of ratings, course form and connections and still feel there is a little juice in his price. As much as I like Un Atout as an individual, I think it’s all about the future with him and I still don’t why Jekzi could only finish eighth in the Bumper last year, maybe he prefers flatter courses? I just wonder if Melodic Rendezvous has the brilliance. MS: We are now betting each-way first four places. The bookmakers are likely to want to get My Tent Or Yours on Tuesday morning so if you want to back him I would wait until then where you could get 9/4. I think he will be backed on course afterwards. Dodging Bullets looks the best each-way alternative. Arkle Trophy JM: If the ground is no worse than Good-to-Soft, I will back Overturn who is too big a price if this is a match. He jumped great at Sandown though not so good at Doncaster until the home straight. NR: I don’t fancy Arvika Ligeonneire to finish within a fence of the big two as he wants testing ground and a right handed course plus a longer trip. I’d love to see Overturn win but Simonsig does look very impressive. PJ: It’s all about tactics. As a real fast good gallop would suit Simonsig I just wonder if they might slow it up in front on Overturn at some point and try a sudden injection in speed to get the favourite at it and if he can illicit one mistake out of him over the last three fences he will be hard to peg back. I think the difference in price between the pair is too big but, gun to the head, and it would be Simonsig. MS: I think the public will come for Overturn so I don’t see Simonsig starting shorter than 8/11, maybe even 4/5. There was a run on Captain Conan with us at lunchtime today but I suspect it is was NR No bet each-way punters. I think Simonsig will win. Champion Hurdle JM: I’ve been looking to take on Hurricane Fly but have been struggling to find something to beat him. I didn’t think he was impressive when he won the Champion Hurdle like for his other wins so maybe Cheltenham is not the course to bring the best out of him. Ruby didn’t think he gave him a good ride in last year’s race. What will make the running? That will be a key factor. Rock On Ruby is probably under-rated. NR: Hurricane Fly is one to take on without a doubt, I think the Champion Hurdle two years ago bottomed him and Peddlers Cross. He is nine now and is better when the mud is flying. Zarkandar is tough and admirable but I just wonder if this sharper of the two hurdles courses is ideal. Binocular is not good enough and Grandouet has had one run in 16 months. That leaves you with Rock On Ruby who could easily be another Hardy Eustace so he is my fancy. PJ: I was a Grandouet man until he missed his prep but feel you need everything to go your way to win a championship race. I am forming a late strong opinion that it will be won by either Rock On Ruby on Zarkandar who are both battlers and love Cheltenham whereas I am not sure that applies to Hurricane Fly which may seem like an odd thing to say given he has won a Champion Hurdle. You can get 11/8 Rock On Ruby to finish in the first three which is a maximum bet for me, he should be nearer 4/9 to hit the frame. Name me three horse that will beat him. MS: Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar have been the two for money of late. If the ground comes up decent I can see Cinders And Ashes running a big race, he looked great when I saw him at a media day last week. Tuesday Shoulder Races: JM: Cantlow is interesting for the JLT and ticks a lot of boxes. Knockara Beau is well handicapped for the same race but is a frustrating horse. It’s hard to imagine Fruity O’Rooney not running well. The Druid’s Nephew has a chance in the novice handicap but I have some concerns about the form of the yard. Attaglance is potentially well handicapped for that race as is Carlito Brigante who brings good course form though he wouldn’t want it too soft. I don’t think Colour Squadron jumps well enough. NR: I was a huge fan of Our Mick’s for the JLT last year when he was third but not so much this season and he is favourite. One run this season and unseating his rider isn’t my profile. I like Tour Des Champs if he runs as like the novice angle for this race but he has plenty of experience though the bug at the Twiston-Davies yard is a concern. Tarla has the class to finish second in the Mares Hurdle if she runs. I like The Druid’s Nephew very much for the novice handicap chase, in fact he is one of the bets of the meeting. PJ: I like Our Mick who is marginally higher than last year in the ratings but was a good third as a novice and being such a big horse I expect he will have improved at least a good 7lbs physically. Horses placed in this race the previous year have a decent record. I fancy Kentford Grey Lady to give Quevega a race. The yard are quiet but she put up a career best performance in the Cleeve during that period and loves the Cheltenham hill. She appeals in the betting without Quevega market. If White Star Line runs in the novice handicap I give him a good each-way chance. I don’t usually back 9-year-old maidens but he was second in the race last year to Hunt Ball and is 3lbs lower this time and really caught the eye last time after running in races he couldn’t win. He is also interesting at a big price if he switches to the JLT. MS: The Druid’s Nephew has been consistently well backed over the last few days and his nose second to Hadrian’s Approach reads well. Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle JM: Pont Alexandre is visually very impressive. Regardless of what Jonjo says that he will improve for a better surface I would be worried about the ground for Taquin Du Seuil whose form is on bad ground and has a very high knee action. NR: I was going to back The New One until news broke of the bug in his stable. Taquin Du Seuil has the action of a deep-ground horse so I can’t have it. I always respect Mouse Morris in the novice races at Cheltenham so Rule The World interests me. When favs win this race they usually win it easily and it is not hard seeing Pont Alexandre being another. PJ: I can’t see this going out to the top three in the market. I was edging the way of The New One at the prices before the news that some of his his yard have the bug and I can see Taquin Du Seuil usurping him as second favourite. As the race gets the closer the vibes for Pont Alexandre just get stronger and stronger who I see starting closer to Evens than 2/1. I suspect I will let the race pass without a bet. MS: If you want to back Pont Alexandre then do it now, he will be very well backed. RSA Chase JM: Boston Bob has been unimpressive and I don’t think Back In Focus is quick enough. Hadrian’s Approach doesn’t jump well enough and Unioniste has to improve a good deal on his narrow defeat of him and his Cheltenham handicap win. Dynaste is the clear best horse if he runs here. NR: I think Dynaste will run in the Jewson. Ive backed Lord Windermere at a very big price as he looks just the type that often outruns its odds in the race though concede he will need to brush up his jumping. PJ: I hear Ruby Walsh will ride Unioniste as he loves him and his jumping so I see him starting favourite over Boston Bob if Dynaste does go for the Jewson. In that scenario I would have Unioniste as top of my list as the most likely winner but do feel there is value in Lyreen Legend’s price who is a tough, classy stayer that fits the RSA mould in many ways. MS: The money has been Dynaste for the Jewson over the last two days but that has not been from those connected to the Pipe yard. I think Boston Bob is over-hyped and is one I would like to take on. Queen Mother Champion Chase JM: You don’t have to have a bet. Just watch and enjoy Sprinter Sacre. NR: Hard to see an angle. I just hope Finian’s Rainbow and Sizing Europe run so we can gauge just how good Sprinter Sacre really is. PJ: It looks like Sizing Europe win run here which can make the market for Finian’s Rainbow in a without the favourite book for which he is second favourite. I am not usually forgiving when a horse has run as badly as him on both starts this season but Geraghty is adamant that was just heavy ground and he beat Sizing Europe in last year’s race and is the one of the two I feel has a better chance of maintaining that level over 2m as strongly feel the Ryanair trip is now Sizing Europe’s optimum. MS: It looks like Sizing Europe will run here and given his Festival profile he looks the obvious each-way play. Wednesday Shoulder Races JM: Pendra is potentially well handicapped in the Coral Cup. Back In Focus would be my pick for the NH Chase though Buddy Bolero’s form is working out very well. Regal Encore could be interesting in the bumper for Anthony Honeyball and J P McManus. I am told Empiracle works all over Melodic Rendezvous. No real view as yet on the Fred Winter. NR: Ericht and Bourne if they run in the Coral Cup interest me. In the NH Chase, Drawn And Drank could be overpriced, I know Enda Bolger likes him though McCoy seems to think Buddy Bolero is a good thing. I also have time for Godsmejudge back against novices. I like Blackmail most in the Bumper and took a chance on him when it was announced Geraghty had been booked last week. Megalypos is my Fred Winter horse having run well in a Grade 1 and had a wind operation since. PJ: Megalypos is also my Fred Winter horse for the same reasons as Nick and I am also on Blackmail, but after the gallop last Sunday when it was reported in was Ted Veale that worked well but the horse in question was, in fact, Blackmail, and he really did catch the eye. Sea Of Thunder is a big price in the NH Chase but is ground dependent and if its soft, I would lose some interest. Pendra and Son Of Flicka would be my two against the field in the Coral Cup. MS: Le Vent D’Antan and Blackmail have been the two for money in the bumper in the last few days. I am very keen on Saphir De Rheu in the Fred Winter who has a similar profile to Sanctuaire when he won it. I think Back In Focus will start favourite for the NH Chase but he looks slow to me, even for this race so prefer Rival D’Estruval. We have kept on the right side of Edeymi for the Festival handicap hurdles in which he is entered including the Coral Cup, he looked to be given what is known as a considerate ride last time. Jewson Novices’ Chase JM: Dynaste is different class and should win if he runs her . If he runs in the RSA then I would fancy Captain Conan. NR: Dynaste will be hard to beat if he runs here. I think Aupcharlie is a bridle horse and I think two runs at 3m when beaten each time might have bottomed him. I give Argocat some respect. PJ: If Dynaste runs here then I think he will win. He has a better chance here than in the RSA so I think they might end up taking this option. The trainer is convinced Captain Conan wasn’t right last time but he only won as Third Intention threw it away and he is clearly better over 2m on three lines of form with the runner-up. Aupcharlie may not have stayed the last twice but he may also not fancy a battle and the Cheltenham hill could catch him out in that respect. In short, Dynaste if he runs but, if he doesn’t, then Module makes most appeal as he has particularly impressed me at this trip and has Cheltenham winning form to boot. MS: Dynaste will be around a 6/4 shot if he runs and probably win. I think Captain Conan will drift. I’m not convinced about Aupcharlie at all. Ryanair Chase JM: I would want to take Cue Card on who is too exuberant (as are many Tizzard horses) for a high class race. Sizing Europe would be my pick if they favour this race over the Champion Chase. NR: I can’t have Albertas Run off the back of that gallop at Kempton, it’s a leap of faith to back Champion Court, last year’s hard race may have ruined Riverside Theatre and Cue Card could be too exuberant for a race like this. Mouse Morris wants to run First Lieutenant in the Gold Cup and I feel if he does run here 2m5f could be too short on the ground but don’t forget his China Rock. He had not got home in the last two Gold Cups and is overpriced. PJ: I think First Lieutenant is made for the race and will be my main fancy if he runs. He looks a left-handed course, spring horse who has been doing well to run so well in races like the Hennessy and Lexus as I don’t fancy to hit form until he gets better ground. Sizing Europe would be the danger if he ran here but it looks like it could be the Champion Chase for him. China Rock is the wrong price on official ratings and could easily sneak a place as I’m not convinced at all about Cue Card, Menorah and Champion Court. MS: Cue Card has to be taken on and he is definitely a lay for us on the day. We’re keen on First Lieutenant who has the best form of these this season. World Hurdle JM: I thougt Reve De Sivola got the run of the race in the Cleeve. It looks like Oscar Whisky should stay the trip and he would be my preference despite not having a great winning record at Cheltenham. NR: I don’t think Reve De Sivola will be quick enough if the ground is not soft. Smad Place was third last season in a better renewal than this so is worth a look as is Solwhit who is not far behind Hurricane Fly when they kept meeting a couple of years ago. PJ: I went to a preview in Mayfair last night and all 5 panellists said Reve De Sivola needs a bog. I really don’t get where this is coming from, he handles decent ground perfectly well and, besides, there will be cut in the ground on Thursday. There have also been rumours he has had training problems but when I spoke to one of his owners he said it was news to him and Nick Williams. I think he is the strongest stayer in the race and will outstay his rivals with Johnson winding it up from further out than in the Cleeve. Interesting to hear Alan King thinks Smad Place has just come right and, given the way the race is likely to be run, I can see a creeping ride from McCoy on Get Me Out Of Here manoeuvre him into the frame back at the Festival where he has been second in each of the last three years. MS: This is a massive ground race and Oscar Whisky and Get Me Out Of Here’s chances will improve if it is not testing. On soft ground I think Reve De Sivola will start favourite. I’m not a fan of Peddlers Cross. Thursday Shoulder Races JM: Shutthefrontdoor won a decent race at Carlisle and is interesting for the Pertemps as is another of Jonjo’s in Dursey Sound if he runs. Too many horses in the Plate and Kim Muir have multiple entries to take a clear view at this stage. NR: Close House and my cliff horse, Captain Sunshine, interest me most in the Pertemps. I think Hunt Ball has a huge chance in the Plate on his Aintree run last spring. Maganimity has a bit of class that could be important in the Kim Muir and was a good second to a Grade 2 last time and I also like Lost Glory of Jonjo’s if he runs who hasn’t run since October and Prince Of Pirates. PJ: Willie Wumpkins must have been the last Pertemps winner I backed so I’ll go for the obvious favourite Sam Winner to try and put that shameful record straight. I like Prince Of Pirates for Henderson, McManus and De Boinville in the Kim Muir and have no idea whatsoever about the Plate as yet. MS: Our Head of Trading is keen on Poquelin at a big price for the Plate. I believe Paul Nicholls backed Sam Winner for the Pertemps as soon as the prices came out. Shutthefrontdoor looks the best alternative. Triumph Hurdle JM: Our Conor is very solid and will be hard to beat. NR: I’m very keen on Our Conor. I put up Diakali ante-post before Our Conor easily beat him. Mullins feels he could reverse on better ground and not front running. Leopardstown is a stiffer track that many feel so I don’t see stamina being a problem for Our Conor. PJ: Our Conor should be clear favourite not a marginal favourite. I thought he was fantastic at Leopardstown which came off the back of him missing his Christmas engagement so there could be even more to come and he has everything I look for in a Triumph horse. Far West impressed me at Ascot having unimpressed me the time before and I rate him a bigger threat than Rolling Star as, like Our Conor, he is more of a ‘here and now’ horse whereas I feel Rolling Star could lack experience. MS: Our Conor is a half brother to a four miler so I don’t see stamina as a problem. If it comes up testing I see Far West starting favourite through. I’ll be surprised if Rolling Star is not the third choice of punters regardless of the ground. Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle JM: Utopies Des Bordes is very game and receives a 7lbs mares’ allowance. I have some doubts about Ballycasey. Broadway Buffalo is an outsider to consider if he runs. No strong views. NR: This is the hurdling equivalent of the RSA and we need a tough hardy horse, I’m not sure Ballycasey is that and could lack experience. African Gold is the horse I like but I want to see how the Twiston-Davies run earlier in the week given the bug in his yard. I think Champagne Fever is crying out for a step up to this 3m. PJ: I’ve backed Our Vinnie and Utopies Des Bordes each-way at double figure prices and am happy with that though I can’t see anything wrong with At Fishers Cross at all. Ballycasey looks like he is priced up on connections rather than anything else. MS: We are keen to keep At Fishers Cross on side after his Cheltenham win. If they run Champagne Fever here that could suggest the same owner/trainer combination would not fancy their Ballycasey as much as the market indicates. Gold Cup JM: Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghthy both think we have over-hyped Sir Des Champs in England. However, the way he powered clear on the run-in to win last year’s Jewson is hard to forget and I felt at the time that we saw the following season’s Gold Cup winner. That still remains my view. Bobs Worth is a poor price for a horse with just one this season. NR: A hard race for me to find a value bet in. Silviniaco Conti has had the perfect season but I just sense Nicholls has doubts he may fall short. I could see myself going with The Giant Bolster or Cape Tribulation as a value advise for Racing Plus. PJ: I think Sir Des Champs is the most likely winner and will improve again as he had done from race to race this season, which he will need to. Sometimes you just have to go with your eyes over the Form Book and he looked a future Gold Cup to me with the style in which he won last year’s Jewson. Returning to Cheltenham, better ground and step up in trip can bring around that improvement. I still feel The Giant Bolster can place again. MS: I think the bookmakers might try and get Bobs Worth off just one run this season unless Henderson has another first three days like last year. I like him most though, he loves Cheltenham and gets the trip. Friday Shoulder Races JM: Court Minstrel would interest me if they waited for this but I’d want to see what happens in the Imperial Cup before firming up an opinion. For the Grand Annual, Rody’s form from Warwick is brilliant and if form means anything he has a very strong chance. NR: Gevrey Chambertin for the Martin Pipe. I like Alderwood for the Grand Annual who is lower over fences than hurdles and Rody as that Warwick form is working out very well. Ifandbutwhynot and Discoteca catch my eye in the County. PJ: I like Ted Veale’s each-way chances in the County and fancy him to reverse Leopardstown form with Abbey Lane on 10lbs better terms on better ground. The Grand Annual is too open but I’ve backed Gevrey Chambertin today NR No bet at 8/1 for the Martin Pipe Hurdle as see him going off near 3/1. Salsify wins the Foxhunters again. MS: Ifandbutwhynot was my Champion Bumper horse last year where he was nowhere but I will stick with him again for the County. He won well at Musselburgh last time. If they were to book Carberry for Kid Cassidy for the Grand Annual, he would be perfect for him like he was for Bellvano for the same owner/trainer last year. Charity Bets: JM: My Tent Or Yours (Supreme) NR: Rock On Ruby (Champion Hurdle) PJ: Our Conor (Triumph) MS: Saphir De Rheu (Fred Winter)

[Jumps Racing ~ Saturday 9th March]

Re: Jumps Racing ~ Saturday 9th March Paddy Power Imperial Cup – Sandown, Saturday 3:15 The trends surrounding the ages of past winners of the Imperial Cup is an intriguing one. Over the past decade, the roll of honour implies that four and five-year-olds have a record similar to those aged six or above, but a whole new world opens up when looking back at the results to 1980. There is no need to mention the four-year-olds as none are due to run tomorrow, unless the reserve Clarion Call gets in. Five-year-olds may have only won three of the last ten renewals but overall they have by far the strongest record, winning 16 of the last 33. Quite why they haven’t fared so well in recent seasons is open to debate (excluding last year’s winner Paintball), but even so the chances of Mr Mole, Arnaud, Kazlian, Pine Creek, Solarus Exhibition, Cayman Islands, Sporting Boy and Lyvius must be respected. Six-year-olds would appear to be next best having won the Imperial Cup eight times since 1980; three of which have come in the past seven years. Six horses fit into that category with Tominator and last year’s winner Paintball the most prominent in the betting. Alarazi scored for the seven-year-olds two year’s ago but winners from that age group are pretty few and far between – four from the last thirty three to be precise. Eight-year-old winners are even rarer, Precious Boy being their only winner back in 1994. The nine-year-old Scorned added to the victory of Desert Hero some 21 years earlier when winning this race in 2004 confirming that older winners are almost as rare as hen’s teeth. Therefore, in order to narrow the field down to a more manageable number, it may be worth opposing all runners tomorrow aged seven or above. Martin Pipe loved nothing more than winning the Imperial Cup, a feat he achieved six times during his career, probably something to do with the fact that the sponsor offers a whopping bonus if the winner follows up at Cheltenham. Pipe senior collected that bonus on three occasions; twice as a trainer and once as an owner. Son David has wasted no time in picking up where his father left off with back-to-back wins in 2007 and 2008. If the betting was to be believed he should have made it a hat-trick 12 months later but the heavily punted Seven Is My Number had to give best to Dave’s Dream. With stats like that, it is clearly best not to write off his runners. Quite surprisingly, Jonjo O’Neill and Paul Nicholls are still searching for their first Imperial Cup winner despite each saddling half a dozen or so runners since 2001. Both trainers look to have reasonable chances of breaking that duck this year but their runners, Mr Mole and Tominator, should perhaps be treated with a touch of caution. It is quite remarkable given the ultra-competitive nature of the Imperial Cup that seven of the last 10 winners had achieved a top two finish on their previous start – five winners and two runners up. The last time out winners lining up for tomorrow’s race include Mr Mole, Shammick Boy, Le Bacardy, Tominator and Pine Creek. Eleven stone does appear to be the cut off mark in the Imperial Cup. Polar Red and Korelo were the last two winners of this race to have carried in excess of 11st but since then every winner has carried ten stone something – a very interesting trend given that the market principals Mr Mole and Tanerko Emery both carry over 11st. Despite the competitive nature of the Imperial Cup, the favourites have fared very well by winning six of the last 10 renewals. Even in those four remaining years there hasn’t been much of an upset confirming that it isn’t really a race for outsiders. Shortlist Tominator Pine Creek WhitbyJack Conclusion If the betting is to be believed this looks like this race belongs to Mr Mole, but there are plenty of negatives surrounding the weight he will be carrying to put me off, even though the handicap is condensed this year. Tominator gets the vote in this as he fits nicely with the profile of recent winners, he is the right age, comes here off the back of a win last time out and carries just over 11 stone which shouldn’t be an issue given the bottom weight only carries 10 stone 7. Tominator had enough ability on the flat to lift the Northumberland Plate but it wasn’t a complete surprise that he was sent hurdling as he hadn’t done enough to warrant a career as a stallion. He was firmly beaten in a Grade 2 atCheltenham but he returned to Sandown in February to record a comfortable victory from Leviathan. He debuts in a handicap today and with the course already proven to suit he should go well in the hustle and bustle of the race. Pine Creek comes here off the back of victories at Doncaster and Leicester and represents the John Ferguson yard and has a fairly similar profile to Tominator. Pine Creek had ability on the flat, finishing 3rd in a Listed event at Saint-Cloud, he carries just over eleven stone and at the age of 5 he looks primed to run a big race. The Gary Moore stable has been in sensational form in recent weeks and he has plenty of pedigree when it comes to lifting big handicaps so Whitby Jack has to be respected. This gelding is anything but consistent, however when he is right he is capable of attaining a high level of form as he showed when despatching a quality field at Kempton in early January. If he can find his best then he certainly has the ability to get involved whilst trends wise he is the right age, carries the right weight and comes here on the back of a second last time out.

[Tuesday 3:20: Champion Hurdle]

Re: Tuesday 3:20: Champion Hurdle from racing post After shooting out Grandouet's price on Betfair has come right back in again. He was matched at 40 but is now back in the teens. Was it just a scare? We'll bring you official word as soon as possible.

[Tuesday 3:20: Champion Hurdle]

Re: Tuesday 3:20: Champion Hurdle grandouet drifting on betfair 84/1

[cheltenham preview nights 2013]

Re: cheltenham preview nights 2013 Huntingdon Preview Evening Panel: Richard Hoiles (RH), Phil Smith (PS), Luke Tarr (LT), Paul Kieley (PK) and John Ferguson (JF) Supreme Novices’: RH – One of the most successful races the Irish have at the Festival whilst recent years have proved expensive for favourite followers. LT – The market revolves around My Tent Or Yours – the general public will latch on to him and he will go off at around 11/10. PS – I look at the last 5 years generally and the end of season rating of the winner tends to be in the low 150s – My Tent Or Yours is already rated 162, his success in a quality handicap gives confidence to the mark whilst AP has proved a good judge when given a choice in recent years (He rides My Tent Or Yours, rather than Jezki). I would give a mention to Un Atout as well. JF – I would be a backer of My Tent Or Yours at 7/4, he was phenomenal at Newbury and I think he is a penalty kick but Dodging Bullets is solid and looks a good each way bet whilst Melodic Rendevous should run well. PK – My Tent Or Yours will encounter a lot of different things, he is a flat bred horse and doesn’t have the speed figures to back up his rating. Has he got the stamina? I’m a huge fan of Melodic Rendezvous and I’m sure he would be shorter if he was trained elsewhere. RH – Cheltenham tempos are like nothing else – everything happens just a bit faster. I think Dodging Bullets is worth keeping in mind. Arkle: LT – If you fancy a My Tent Or Yours/Simonsig double – back it now! This is a one horse race. JF – Overturn and Simonsig are both athletes. Overturn will go off quick and it will be down to the quality of the jumping as to who wins. RH – Arvika Legionneire the third best at the prices but if he leads he could have a huge role to play in the race. PK – The Irish jockeys I have spoken too not big on their chances in this one. PS – Ratings wise over the last 5 years you have to be 160+, the top 2 are! I can’t have an Irish winner of this race. I hope Overturn wins but front runners don’t have a great record in this race. PK – I think there is a little bit of the Sprinter Sacre performance last year in the price of Simonsig. Champion Hurdle: JF – Hurricane Fly has had 2 gimmes this year, I’m not saying he won’t win but…. LT – Hurricane Fly is the lay of the week and the next 3 in the market (Zarkander, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby) are cracking each way bets. PS – It’s a good Champion Hurdle but I can’t understand the price of Hurricane Fly. Zarkander is a fascinating runner but there isn’t anything wrong with Rock On Ruby either. PK – I’m worried about where the pace is going to come from but I think Rock On Ruby will win. There have been a lot of rumours about how well Binocular has been working, I can’t see him winning but JP can! RH – Rock On Ruby won on merit last year and the ground will suit him over Zarkander, who will come off the bridle at some stage even if he wins (for in running punters), but it’s Rock On Ruby for me. PK – I think Zarkander would be a banker in the World Hurdle. JF – Cotton Mill is still in the Champion but I’m siding towards the County Hurdle but I want the option left open at this stage as I may change depending on how well Pine Creek runs on Saturday (Imperial Cup) – he should run well! LT – Worth mentioning that we have seen a lot of money for Cinders And Ashes this week. Neptune: RH – Pont Aleaxandre the Irish banker? PK – He has a huge reputation but we don’t know how good he is, it could be a very strong race with The New One and Taquin Du Soeuil involved but I am concerned about a reported bug in Twiston-Davis’ yard. RH – There are lots of bullish reports about Taquin Du Soeuil but the Challow has been a bad trial. PS – The Irish novice hurdlers are quite interesting but it’s not a race I have a strong view on at this stage. In general though, I much prefer a horse at the Festival that has run in the calendar year. RH – Chatterbox of interest? JF – Puffin Billy and Chatterbox are both of interest – there seem to be question marks over a few at the top of the market so it may be worth looking elsewhere. RSA and Jewson: RH – Dynaste is drifting for the RSA and shortening for the Jewson…. PK – The fields are up in the air but I think Dynaste will win whichever race he runs in. RH – My worry with Dynaste is that he may just be an early season horse. PS – Dynaste is at 161 – Denman was on that mark after he won the RSA! RH – Would the Jewson be the soft option? PS – No – it’s not an easy route but if you don’t like Dynaste in the RSA then Rocky Creek and Super Duty could be interesting. LT – Dynaste is visually the most impressive National Hunt horse this year but he would be my banker in the Jewson but I would take him on in the RSA. RH – I’d throw Houblon Des Obouex into the mix – on soft ground he could be perfect. PK – Houblon does look a cracking each way bet – take Dynaste out and its wide open. Champion Chase: PS –I think Sprinter Sacre is better than Moscow Flyer but his rating doesn’t show it. It should just be a race to watch but for fun an exacta to match last year’s finishing position. RH – Everyone agrees it’s just about Sprinter Sacre. Ryanair: RH – Cue Card and First Lieutenant appear to both be pretty much confirmed. PK – Davy Russell is a big fan of First Lieutenant. LT – First Lieutenant and Sizing Europe are the two for me but wait until they are both confirmed. JF – I’ve heard Riverside Theatre is pleasing at home and Nicky is sure ulcers were the problem after last year and I think they are going there with confidence. LT – Riverside Theatre is no value for me. PK – Last year’s Ryanair was a tough race so I would ignore anything that ran in it. PS – Albertas Run takes my eye each way at 20s but I don’t think he’ll win. World Hurdle: PK – I’m a huge fan of Reve de Sivola but there are rumours he has had a setback. I do see Oscar Whisky as a non stayer so I’m sticking with Reve. LT – Oscar Whisky still heads the market but there has been lots of money for Wonderful Charm. RH – Quevega non runner no bet for me – you can’t lose! PS – If Grands Crus turns up he won’t be 20s so is worth a look no runner no bet. Triumph: PS – Diakali would be interesting at a decent price – I like Aga Khan bred over hurdles. JF – Ruacana has a similar profile to Countrywide Flame and deserves to take his chance, we will be putting a visor on him just to sharpen him up. PK – I was very impressed by Our Connor – I think he will be very hard to beat but he will be a bigger price on the day than he is now. LT – Far West has been highly touted but I like Rolling Star as well. Foxhunters: JF – Salsify should win this doing hand stands! Gold Cup: PS – Long Run is in many ways the most interesting runner but I don’t think he can win. The form of the Hennessy is probably the most solid but Bobs Worth hasn’t run for a long time but that may not work against him. There might be concerns about the track for Silviniaco Conti so I think Bobs Worth is the most likely winner with Cape Tribulation an each way interest. RH – Bobs Worth has had an interrupted prep. PK – You could argue Bobs Worth has the best form but the missed prep bothers me. LT – Bobs Worth is 4 from 4 at Cheltenham and I can’t entertain anything else. RH – How good is Silviniaco Conti? PK – Ruby thinks he is the real deal and he has done nothing wrong so I think he is the most likely winner and I will also give a word to Captain Chris, who will stay and could run well. Extras: JF – I’m excited about Bordoni in the Fred Winter and Purple Bay deserves his chance in the Bumper. Banker: PK – Menorah (Ryanair) JF – Rock on Ruby (Champion Hurdle) RH – Simonsig (Arkle) Long Shot: PK – Houblon des Obouex (RSA) PS – Cape Tribluation (Gold Cup) LT – Duke of Lucca (JLT) RH – Poquelin (Byrne Group)